Denver Broncos News & Rumors

Prospect Profile: Bo Nix

April 22nd, 2024 at 10:55pm CST by Ely Allen

Quarterback has been a position of significant intrigue ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft. The least intriguing piece is USC’s Caleb Williams, who has been slotted into the No. 1 overall pick pretty much since the end of the 2023 NFL Draft. For several weeks now, a prediction that three other quarterbacks (LSU’s Jayden Daniels, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy) are expected to occupy the three picks immediately following the presumed selection of Williams, in some order. After those four, only two other names have been mentioned as potential first round passers: Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. (who received a Prospect Profile a month ago) and Oregon quarterback Bo Nix.

Nix started off his high school career at Scottsboro School (Alabama) before following his father, former Auburn quarterback Patrick Nix, who had just been hired as the head coach at Pinson Valley HS (Alabama) closer to Birmingham. A fractured left ankle kept the younger Nix from thriving in his first year at the new school, but he made a return in time to lead Pinson Valley to a state championship title. He absolutely dominated his senior year, leading his school to their second straight state title and getting ranked by 247Sports as the nation’s 62nd best overall recruit and second-best dual-threat quarterback behind Daniels. Other recruiting services had him as a five-star quarterback and the top dual-threat passer in the nation.

Sitting smack dab between Alabama and Auburn, Nix was recruited heavily by both programs. It did not take much to persuade Nix, though, as he committed to his father’s alma mater before his senior season even began, never wavering from following in his father’s footsteps. Nix enrolled early for the Tigers and quickly beat out Joey Gatewood and Malik Willis for the starting job as a true freshman. Despite early growing pains, namely his 57.6 completion percentage, Nix shined in his first year leading the team, earning SEC Freshman of the Year honors. While Nix displayed some ups and downs over the next two years, his numbers continued to improve despite having three different offensive coordinators. The team success did not improve, though, as the Tigers went 12-9 with Nix starting in those two years.

After a broken ankle ended his 2021 season, Nix let it be known that he was miserable under new head coach Bryan Harsin, who didn’t coach in 2023 after being fired part-way through the 2022 season, and entered the transfer portal. Nix committed to Oregon, reuniting with Kenny Dillingham, who had been his offensive coordinator during his freshman year at Auburn. Thanks to COVID-19, Nix now had six years to play five seasons, meaning he had two years of eligibility remaining with the Ducks.

Nix exploded in his first season at a new school. For the first time in his collegiate career, Nix eclipsed a 70 completion percentage (71.9), 3,000 passing yards (3,593), 20 passing touchdowns (29), 500 rushing yards (510), and 10 rushing touchdowns (14). He was an honorable mention All-Pac-12 selection as he set the school record for highest completion percentage at a school that produced such quarterbacks as Marcus Mariota and Justin Herbert. His senior year saw him take off even more, beating his prior year passing numbers with a new record-77.4 completion percentage, 4,508 passing yards, and 45 touchdowns to just three interceptions.

If stats were the sole determining factor for who would go No. 1 overall in the NFL draft, Nix would be the unanimous selection. In 2023, Nix’s 77.4 completion percentage led all of college football. It wasn’t just a school record, it broke Mac Jones‘ FBS record for single-season completion percentage. Nix was second in the FBS in passing yards only behind Penix (4,903) last season. He let the nation in passing touchdowns, and while some full-season starters like Florida State’s Jordan Travis and Penn State’s Drew Allar had few interceptions (2), neither were producing near the yardage and touchdowns of Nix. But scouts and coaches focus on much more than numbers when it comes to the draft.

Physically, Nix is not the prototype for a quarterback, but his body type works for the game he plays. While Nix set records with his arm this year, he still projects best as dual-threat passer. Some of his best throws come on the run and without his feet set, and he uses strong footwork to avoid tacklers in a collapsing pocket. He benefited from most of his production coming off quick, one-look passes, but those plays fit his quick release and strong arm.

Nix still showed the ability to throw all over the field and was productive using play fakes to open routes up down the field. He is a strong runner and, though he did sustain a pair of ankle injuries through high school and college, any questions of his toughness were put to rest when he broke Colt McCoy and Kellen Moore‘s NCAA records for most starts in a career for a quarterback with 61.

So, why isn’t Nix going No. 1 overall? Mainly, quarterbacks with Nix’s style of play have not generally fared well in the NFL. They have not fared poorly (see Mariota, Baker Mayfield, Tyrod Taylor), but they never really stick out around the league’s best. Coaches have nitpicked a lack of patience that does not allow routes to develop and open up. Nix also can rely on his great arm strength as a catch-all, affecting his accuracy and forcing his receivers to make some uncomfortable grabs. Teams also will not like that he is 24 years old entering the NFL draft. It’s not quite on the level of Brandon Weeden (the NFL’s oldest-ever first-round pick at 28 years old), but he’s already the same age as Trevor Lawrence.

Nix presents a mixed bag coming into the draft. He provided outstanding production through the air and on the ground at the collegiate level. Though his style of play isn’t tailormade for the NFL, Nix has proven to be very coachable. After three different coordinators in his first three seasons and a change of schools, Nix continued to improve year after year, going from a 57.6 completion percentage as a freshman to the FBS record-holder in the stat. He has been lauded for his academics and leadership with his coaches calling him “another coach” on the field, and he only got better each year.

There is plenty to suggest that Nix could struggle to be elite at the next level, but with his tools and drive, it’s hard to imagine that he won’t get a chance as a starter at some point.

Now, where does a player like that go in the draft? Most see Nix as a likely Day 2 pick, though an early run of quarterbacks could force a team’s hand if they truly want Nix, and there isn’t an absence of teams who do. According to Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated, there is an assumption in league circles that, if Nix goes in the first round, it will be to the Broncos. While some speculate that Denver could trade up to select McCarthy, many like Nix better as a stylistic fit with head coach Sean Payton. The Broncos do not have a second-round pick, so they may opt to trade back from No. 12, collect more draft capital, and draft Nix to compete with the newly acquired Zach Wilson.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter warns not to dismiss the Rams, either. Schefter points to general manager Les Snead, who was a graduate assistant coach at Auburn in 1993, when Nix’s father, Patrick, was the Tigers’ quarterback. With some speculation that Penix could be the fifth passer coming off the board as high as No. 8 overall, do not rule out Los Angeles taking Matthew Stafford‘s heir apparent at No. 19.

The speculation does not stop there. With mere days remaining until the draft begins, there is no shortage of possibilities for how the event may play out. Nix could join the others in the first round, or he could freefall into the middle of the draft. Regardless, some NFL team should be adding a coachable, fast-learning competitor later this week.

Broncos To Sign CB Levi Wallace

April 22nd, 2024 at 8:33am CST by Sam Robinson

APRIL 22: Wallace is set to head back to Denver today with the intention of signing a one-year deal, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. His free agent visit obviously went well, and Rapoport notes Wallace had other offers but he preferred to play under Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph. Cornerback could still be a position of interest in this week’s draft, but the team now has a starting-caliber veteran in the fold.

APRIL 11: Preparing to go into last season with Damarri Mathis as the boundary starter opposite Patrick Surtain, the Broncos made a switch by moving veteran Fabian Moreau into that starting spot. Moreau is a free agent, and the team is looking into other options at cornerback.

One prospective addition has emerged. Ex-Buffalo and Pittsburgh corner Levi Wallace is visiting Denver on Friday, according to Bleacher Report’s Jordan Schultz. Wallace spent the past two seasons with the Steelers.

Wallace, 28, started 18 games for Pittsburgh but played a regular role in Buffalo. For his career, the former UDFA has 70 starts under his belt. He would certainly supply the Broncos with some experience and profile as an option opposite Surtain. The Broncos still roster Mathis and traded back into last year’s third round to draft Iowa’s Riley Moss. The latter did not see much playing time as a rookie.

Even before Tre’Davious White‘s seminal ACL tear, the Bills used Wallace as a regular starter. The Alabama alum started every game he played with Buffalo from 2018-21. Wallace never allowed a passer rating north of 86 in his first five NFL seasons, posting sub-77 numbers as the closest defender in 2018 and ’21. Pro Football Focus rated Wallace as the NFL’s fourth-best corner in 2018, marking a surprising emergence given his draft status. Wallace’s PFF marks steadily declined over the next five years, and the Steelers demoted him in 2023.

After starting five of the Steelers’ first six games, Wallace dropped to a backup role for the next several weeks. Injuries in the secondary prompted Pittsburgh to insert Wallace back into the lineup to close the season, but after he had signed a two-year deal worth $9MM, the Steelers had made other plans. On the whole, Wallace allowed six touchdown passes last season. After signing Patrick Peterson and drafting Joey Porter Jr. 32nd overall last year, the Steelers swapped out Peterson for Donte Jackson this offseason. Going into the draft, Pittsburgh has Porter, Jackson and Josiah Scott positioned as their top three CBs.

In Ja’Quan McMillian, the Broncos found a promising rookie in the slot. But they are still in need of an answer opposite Surtain. The team may well look to the draft to address this role as well, with Moss presumably set to factor into a potential competition. With Moreau unsigned, the team will see if Wallace proves a low-cost fit.

Broncos HC Sean Payton Prepared To “Mortgage Future” To Trade Up For QB?

April 21st, 2024 at 10:26pm CST by Rory Parks

Broncos GM George Paton recently conceded that he would be prepared to part with future first-round draft picks to trade up from the No. 12 overall selection in this year’s draft if such a move allows him to select a franchise quarterback. We have also heard that while head coach Sean Payton is naturally interested in a trade-up for a QB, the club may ultimately choose to trade down to accumulate more assets; after all, thanks to the trades bringing Russell Wilson and Payton to Denver, the Broncos have not made a first-round selection since 2021 and do not have a second-round choice this year.

Tony Pauline of Sportskeeda.com, however, hears that Payton is not merely willing to contemplate a move up the board. The former Super Bowl-winning HC — who narrowly missed out on drafting Patrick Mahomes in 2017 when the Chiefs moved up 17 spots to leapfrog the Payton-led Saints to land the future star — is reportedly prepared to “mortgage the franchise’s future” to acquire one of the top passer prospects in the 2024 class.

The near miss on Mahomes has, according to Pauline’s sources, left a sour taste in Payton’s mouth, and he is looking to right past wrongs. Given that the teams holding the top three selections in this year’s draft have the need to add blue chip signal-callers of their own, the Cardinals’ No. 4 overall choice is perhaps the highest pick the Broncos could theoretically acquire. Arizona is certainly open for business, but it is unclear just how far down the board the team would be willing to go, and the same can be said of the Chargers, who hold the No. 5 pick and who may not want to give a division rival the opportunity to draft a franchise QB.

It is certainly possible that Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye will be taken with the first three picks of the draft and will therefore be unavailable for the Broncos. Per Pauline, that would suit Payton just fine, as he is said to have his eyes set on Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy’s blend of intelligence and ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly is particularly appealing to Payton, perhaps because it reminds him so much of longtime charge Drew Brees.

Of course, this is hardly the first time that the Broncos have been rumored to be interested in trading up for a quarterback. All of the earlier reports to that effect have noted how costly such an endeavor would be, and Pauline acknowledges that Denver’s package would need to include at least one future first-rounder, the No. 12 pick this year, and cornerback Patrick Surtain II. Pauline himself said back in February that the heavy cost of jumping up the draft board would likely preclude the Broncos from doing so, and that the team would only deal Surtain as a last resort.

It seems that much has changed in the past couple of months, with Payton now prepared to do whatever it takes to nab a prospect like McCarthy. We learned just last week that the Broncos may be more receptive to the notion of trading Surtain than they were at last season’s trade deadline, and Pauline’s report is consistent with that line of thinking.

If Denver is ultimately unable to jump up the board, Payton & Co. would content themselves with Oregon’s Bo Nix as Plan B. A recent projection suggested that the Ravens, who hold the No. 30 overall pick, may be willing to deal that selection to the Broncos, who would use it to select Nix. A subsequent report indicated that Baltimore is not, in fact, looking to move out of the first round, though the right offer can of course change draft plans in a hurry.

Only a small percentage of Pauline’s sources believe the Broncos would select Nix with their No. 12 choice. That stands to reason in light of a recent report from Ari Meirov of The33rdTeam.com, who hears from league executives that Nix is more of a Day 2 prospect.

Broncos Don’t Plan To Trade Courtland Sutton

April 20th, 2024 at 9:45am CST by Ben Levine

Courtland Sutton has been a popular trade candidate for the better part of a year. While the Broncos’ offseason overhaul has already led to plenty of offensive turnover, it sounds like the former second-round receiver will be sticking in Denver.

According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, the Broncos have received “multiple trade inquiries” on Sutton. However, the front office doesn’t plan on trading the wideout. Sutton was a no-show for the start of Broncos voluntary offseason workouts, with the understanding being that the receiver was seeking a new contract.

However, Sutton is also rehabbing an ankle injury. According to Mike Klis of 9News in Denver, the wideout had offseason ankle surgery stemming from an injury he suffered during the regular-season finale. Fortunately, it doesn’t sound like the player nor the team are overly concerned about the recovery, and Sutton has been active working out in Florida during the offseason.

Sutton has two years remaining on his contract, including a 2024 campaign where he’s set to earn a base salary of $13MM. The Broncos already picked up his $2MM guarantee for 2024, but that’s the team’s only current financial commitment to the player. None of Sutton’s 2025 earnings are guaranteed. The receiver is set to count for $17.4MM against the cap this season, and he’ll have a similar cap hit in 2025.

An acquiring team could look to sign Sutton to a new deal, although with two years remaining and easy outs on the contract, there certainly wouldn’t be any urgency to sign an extension. That’s probably why the Broncos aren’t in a rush to make a trade, and it’s unlikely teams are offering a whole lot for the wideout. While Sutton has remained relatively healthy throughout his career (he missed most of the 2020 campaign due to a torn ACL but has otherwise missed three career games), he hasn’t put up top-end production. He topped 1,000-yards receiving during his sophomore season, but since returning from his knee injury, he’s averaged only 800 yards per season.

As the Broncos eye an uncertain future on offense, it seems they’re putting some value on Sutton’s continuity. The team already moved on from quarterback Russell Wilson and fellow receiver Jerry Jeudy. If things don’t go well at the beginning of the 2024 campaign, Sutton could be the next offensive player to get shipped out.

Teams Viewing Steelers As Most Likely To Trade For WR?

April 19th, 2024 at 10:14pm CST by Sam Robinson

Known more for drafting and developing wide receivers — often from Day 2 — than trading for them, the Steelers have produced an impressive track record on this front. Over the past 15 years, Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens have enjoyed varying levels of success with the team despite coming off the board after Round 1.

It is arguable no team has strung together a run of homegrown WR talent like this in the modern game, but rumblings continue to emerge about the Steelers being ready to pull the trigger on a trade. A report earlier this week indicated the team had inquired about Brandon Aiyuk and was interested in trading for a wideout, and the Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora submits another offering in this direction.

Rival execs view the Steelers as the team potentially the most motivated to acquire a receiver via trade. While a Tee Higgins move will not happen — unlikely to be moved, Higgins definitely would not be dealt within the division — teams certainly are monitoring the 49ers regarding an Aiyuk swap.

Although Sean Payton and Broncos GM George Paton said (via the Denver Gazette’s Chris Tomasson) he has spoken with Courtland Sutton recently, the 6-foot-4 wideout showed by far the most chemistry with Russell Wilson last season. The team currently employing Wilson may be interested in reuniting the two, as Sutton is staying away from Broncos workouts in hopes of a new contract.

The Broncos nearly traded Sutton to the Ravens last year, and after their Jerry Jeudy asking price dropped drastically (from a first-rounder to accepting fifth- and sixth-rounders from the Browns), Sutton probably will not cost a second-round pick — Denver’s hope in 2023 — entering his age-29 season. Aiyuk will be more difficult to acquire, and it is worth wondering if the Steelers would pull the trigger, given the fifth-year wideout’s extension price and the AFC North franchise’s success finding receivers in the draft.

This draft is set to produce yet another deep receiver crop, which stands to lower prices in trades. But the Steelers may need more than one starter. Dealing Johnson to Carolina in a deal that brought back cornerback Donte Jackson, Pittsburgh has little surrounding Pickens presently. A slot player and a second boundary option would stand to be in play for the Steelers. The 6-foot-4 Sutton (signed through 2025 on a $15MM-per-year deal) made some of last season’s best catches, working as a deep threat and red zone target (10 2023 TDs) for Wilson. The 6-foot Aiyuk, who is tied to a fifth-year option worth $14.1MM, has displayed a bit more versatility in Kyle Shanahan‘s system.

If the Steelers are to execute a trade, they could devote more draft resources to other positions. Pittsburgh is targeting help at center and tackle, with The Athletic’s Mark Kaboly indicating a right tackle addition is on the team’s radar (subscription required). They hosted 11 O-linemen on “30” visits, including Georgia’s Amarius Mims, Oklahoma’s Tyler Guyton, Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga along with interior O-lineman Graham Barton (Duke), Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon) and Zach Frazier (West Virginia), Kaboly adds. They also met with Washington O-lineman Troy Fautanu. Daniel Jeremiah’s big board lists each of these players as top-30 talents; the Steelers pick at No. 20.

The Steelers, who cut two-year center starter Mason Cole, look to be considering moving 2023 first-rounder Broderick Jones — their primary right tackle to close the season — to the left side, where he primarily played in college. That would leave three-year LT starter Dan Moore Jr. in limbo. Pro Football Focus has not been a Moore fan, but the former fourth-round pick — who is going into a contract year — has started 49 career games. After the team drafted Jones to step in for Chukwuma Okorafor, the latter is now with the Patriots. A tackle move — one that may be definitively in the Steelers’ Round 1 plans, as this is a deep class — would stand to give Jones a long-term bookend.

Pittsburgh’s Jackson trade aside, a cornerback will also be targeted — just likely not in Round 1 — according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Gerry Dulac. Jackson is in a contract year, while the team cut Patrick Peterson. Mike Tomlin said a Peterson reunion will be considered, but the likely Hall of Famer is going into his age-34 season.

Dulac adds the Steelers also like Missouri defensive lineman Darius Robinson, whom the Tigers used across the formation. Ranked 39th on Jeremiah’s big board, the 285-pound defender might not be available for Pittsburgh without a second-round trade-up. The Steelers hold the No. 51 overall pick. In fact, ProFootballNetwork.com’s Adam Caplan notes Robinson is expected to be off the board at some point late in the first round. The Steelers have Cameron Heyward under contract for one more season, his age-35 campaign.

Broncos Open To Moving Future First-Round Picks For QB

April 19th, 2024 at 5:10pm CST by Sam Robinson

Obviously set to pay the price for their Russell Wilson mistake, the Broncos have gone through a quiet offseason. They are taking on more of the $85MM dead money sum this year, leading to a much lower-profile free agency compared to Sean Payton‘s first in Denver. After the early waves of free agency, the lingering QB question follows Denver into the draft.

While the other teams linked to trading up for a passer in this draft have clear-cut bridge options — in Sam Darnold (Vikings), Gardner Minshew (Raiders) or five-year starter Daniel Jones (Giants) — the Broncos do not. They are prepared to acquire another veteran at some point, but as of now, Jarrett Stidham would be Denver’s Week 1 starter. This has created a “heavy expectation” the Broncos will draft a QB in Round 1.

“You’d say it sure looks like we have to draft a quarterback and yet it’s got to be the right fit,” Payton said (via 9News’ Mike Klis). “If we had tip sheets as to what everybody else is picking it would be easier to answer that question. And so that’s the puzzle here.”

More interesting are GM George Paton‘s comments on the situation. Paton could be considered on thin ice, seeing as he hired Nathaniel Hackett and traded the eight-asset package — headlined by two first-round picks — for Wilson. With a heavy assist from an ownership group that arrived during Wilson’s extension talks, Paton signed off on the five-year, $245MM extension — one that created the record-setting dead cap figure less than two years later. Denver’s higher-profile HC, however, endorsed a second year of a Payton-Paton partnership earlier this offseason.

Also being the point man on negotiating the compensation for Payton’s rights with the Saints, Paton could seemingly be skittish about forking over more prime assets to fix the Wilson mistake. Yet, the fourth-year Broncos GM said the team is open to moving future first-rounders — to trade up from No. 12 overall — if it feels right about a quarterback prospect.

“If it’s the player you think can change the landscape, like a quarterback, then you do what you have to,” Paton said (via DNVR’s Zac Stevens) of trading a future first-rounder to address the game’s premier position.

Payton certainly coaxed better play from this lesser version of Wilson compared to what transpired with Hackett in 2022, making it worth wondering if the Broncos will set trading up for one of this draft’s top passers as a priority. While Payton is believed to be interested in trading up for a QB, rumors have also come out about the Broncos trading down from No. 12 to accumulate more assets. Thanks to the Payton trade, the team does not have a second-round pick.

Rumblings around the league do indeed point to the Broncos exploring trade-down in Round 1, per the Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora. Trading down could still keep Denver in position to draft Oregon’s Bo Nix, who is regarded as this draft’s fifth- or sixth-best passer. Broncos-Nix connections have emerged for several weeks now.

Trading down and hoping for a second-tier prospect to fix this longstanding problem would be a risky bet for a team that has been unable — despite trades, free agency and multiple early-round picks — to sufficiently replace Peyton Manning over the past eight years. But the Broncos do employ one of the game’s top offensive coaches; and they have traded three first-round picks and three second-rounders over the past two years.

However the Broncos opt to navigate this rather complex situation at quarterback, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler notes they have done extensive homework on this draft’s deep tackle class (subscription required). Garett Bolles is going into the final season of a four-year, $68MM contract. Bolles bounced back from his 2022 broken leg by starting 17 games last season and has made it known he wants an extension, but the seven-year starter was not a Payton pickup and is going into his age-32 season. Right tackle Mike McGlinchey is signed through 2027, and his 2025 base salary became fully guaranteed earlier this offseason.

If the Broncos take a tackle early, they would likely be doing so to eventually replace Bolles and not McGlinchey. The latter has stopped a revolving door at Denver’s RT post, one that featured 11 Week 1 starters in 11 seasons from 2013-23.

Community Tailgate: Broncos, Raiders’ Quarterback Plans

April 17th, 2024 at 10:25pm CST by Sam Robinson

With the Broncos and Raiders‘ most recent quarterback plans not working out, the AFC West presents a stark have/have-not disparity at the game’s glamour position. Going into the draft, Denver and Las Vegas have uphill climbs to find passers who could provide hope of matching up with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.

Yes, the Broncos and Raiders have enjoyed some success against the Chiefs and Chargers (more so the Bolts) during these two Pro Bowlers’ stays. But this era of roster building has mandated either a franchise QB or a stacked roster is necessary to be a true contender. Denver and Las Vegas meet neither criteria, and the rivals’ current draft real estate does not leave clear paths to acquiring such help.

Holding the No. 12 pick, the Broncos did not match the Raiders’ urgency to add a bridge-type starter. The Raiders (No. 13) have Gardner Minshew signed to a two-year, $25MM deal ($15MM guaranteed). If they are unable to piece together a trade or do not see good value in picking one of the draft’s second-tier options, the Minshew bridge merely extends.

The Broncos, conversely, have only Jarrett Stidham — a player best known as the emergency starter as Derek Carr and then Russell Wilson were parked largely for contractual reasons — as a realistic starter option. While rumors about the Broncos being fine with Stidham beginning the season as the starter have emerged, it is difficult to envision Sean Payton entrusting the career backup/third-stringer to that role without a better option being acquired.

The Broncos are planning to add another arm via free agency or through a trade, but options are scarce at this point. As far as the draft goes, the team has been tied to Bo Nix and J.J. McCarthy. A recent report suggested a “heavy expectation” exists the Broncos will leave the first round with a QB, and while Denver has been viewed as wanting to trade up, the Payton and Wilson trades make this a dicey proposition.

Denver has not held a first-round pick since 2021 (Patrick Surtain). Unless the Broncos want to entertain trading their best player to help acquire draft assets, they would need to return to the treacherous road of trading first-round picks. Denver unloaded two in the Wilson swap and sent the Bradley Chubb-obtained choice to New Orleans for Payton’s rights. That Saints swap also stripped the Broncos of their 2024 second-rounder, creating a daunting task for the again-QB-needy club. Eating a record-smashing $85MM in dead money over the next two years on Wilson’s contract, the Broncos obviously would best benefit from a cost-controlled passer.

The Raiders do hold their second-round pick, but the player they have not made a great secret of coveting is viewed as unavailable. Reuniting Antonio Pierce and Jayden Daniels became a Raiders goal early this offseason, but ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter said this week a climb from No. 13 into Daniels territory is likely impossible. Michael Penix Jr. consolation-prize rumors have surfaced, and while the Washington product is seen by some coaches as having skills in line with this draft’s top QBs, scouts have seen some mechanical issues that could pose a problem for the deep-ball maestro’s NFL acclimation.

It also will be worth monitoring how serious the Raiders’ trade-up efforts will become in the days leading up to the draft. A recent report suggested Pierce was in favor of doing what it takes to move up the board for a long-term answer while GM Tom Telesco was OK with hanging onto draft assets and using Minshew as a full-season starter if need be. That will create an interesting backdrop ahead of the duo’s first draft together.

Trade routes for the Raiders and Broncos also stand to be complicated by the fact the Chargers sit in one of the spots that could be used to move up. At No. 4, the Cardinals hold prime real estate to collect a major haul from a QB-needy team. If the Cardinals opt to stay at 4 and draft a wide receiver, the Chargers suddenly become the gateway team. L.A. will probably not be inclined to help one of its two division rivals climb to 5 for a franchise-QB hopeful — at least, not without increasing the price tag. The Giants and Vikings also have the AFC West clubs outflanked in terms of draft assets, with New York sitting at No. 6 and Minnesota holding two first-rounders (Nos. 11 and 23).

With the 2025 draft class not viewed — as of now, at least — as rivaling this QB crop, the stakes could soon rise for the Broncos and Raiders. The teams have done their homework on this class, meeting with passers that will be difficult to impossible to obtain (Daniels, McCarthy). Nix, who profiles as a player the AFC West teams would not need to craft a monster trade haul for, also visited the Raiders. These teams coming out of Round 1 without a QB raises major questions about each’s viability.

Neither of these franchises has enjoyed much luck drafting QBs in Round 1. The Raiders made one of the biggest mistakes in draft history by selecting JaMarcus Russell first overall in 2007 (16 years after drafting quick bust Todd Marinovich). Like the Broncos, the best QBs in team history (Ken Stabler, Rich Gannon, Daryle Lamonica, Carr) were either outside additions or a second-round pick.

Denver’s history here is also checkered, with the franchise having traded 2006 first-rounder Jay Cutler after three years and made the strange moves of drafting a first-round QB ahead of John Elway‘s age-32 season (Tommy Maddox) and then trading up 18 spots to draft Tim Tebow in 2010. These decisions both provided more value than the 2016 Paxton Lynch whiff. Lynch is among the 12 QBs/Phillip Lindsay (the 2020 COVID-19 game against Payton’s Saints) to start for the Broncos since Peyton Manning‘s retirement.

Appearing to reside in the backseat among teams with chances of acquiring draft real estate necessary to acquire one of the class’ top arms, the Broncos and Raiders’ QB situations double as two of the top storylines going into the draft. How will the rival teams navigate their complex tasks of upgrading early in the draft? Weigh in with your thoughts on these situations in PFR’s latest Community Tailgate.

‘Heavy Expectation’ Broncos Draft QB In First Round

April 16th, 2024 at 10:06pm CST by Sam Robinson

Operating with Rams-level disregard for first-round picks over the previous two offseasons, the Broncos traded three Round 1 selections in the Russell Wilson and Sean Payton swaps. The team does not have a second-round pick this year as a result of the latter move. As quarterback-needy teams’ draft arsenals are stacked up, the Broncos’ war chest is limited.

Denver holds the No. 12 overall pick, and while it retains its first- and second-rounders beyond this year, Minnesota and Las Vegas are in better position regarding draft capital. Both the Vikings and Raiders also identified clear bridge options for 2024, with Sam Darnold and Gardner Minshew coming off the free agency board early. This certainly leaves the Broncos with work to do, unless they truly are OK with Jarrett Stidham starting a sizable chunk of the 2024 season.

Teams are obviously monitoring the Broncos as a team interested in a QB, and the Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora indicates a heavy expectation exists the AFC West club will draft a passer at some point in Round 1.

Options to do so would range from trading up — and parting with a major asset package — to making sure either Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. comes to Colorado via a No. 12 investment. Option three would involve attempting to both grab one of those passers later in the round while picking up some assets by moving down. It could be a complicated night for the Broncos, who are set to eat more than $50MM of Wilson’s record-setting $85MM in dead money this year.

It cost the 49ers two future first-round picks and a third-rounder to move from No. 12 to No. 3 for Trey Lance in 2021. For the Broncos to consider a similar package to climb into the top three would shove them into Rams territory. While Los Angeles famously did not made a first-round pick from 2017-23, that team reaped rewards for the bevy of moves out of Round 1. The Wilson trade burned the Broncos, and making another big move because the 2022 swap failed would deprive the franchise of opportunities to add high-end talent at low costs. Given the dead money from the Wilson contract, the Broncos need cost-controlled assets — even though they also need a quarterback.

On this note, NFL.com’s Peter Schrager adds the team would love to move into the top four to draft a QB but, due to the cost of such a move, stops short of predicting they will do this. Denver also possesses needs at cornerback opposite Patrick Surtain and perhaps at edge rusher.

Unless the Broncos want to entertain a Surtain trade — something one GM informed La Canfora they could be willing to do, given the rumblings at the 2023 trade deadline — future draft capital would need to be used to climb up the draft board. The Broncos are eyeing a long-term Surtain extension, and they wanted at least two first-rounders for the All-Pro cornerback in the fall. A separate GM, however, said the Broncos were more likely to hang onto Surtain due to Payton not viewing this as a long-term rebuild project.

Both the Broncos and Vikings were mentioned as having done early work on QBs (with regards to moving up) back in February, but Minnesota acquiring No. 23 overall from Houston has led to far more buzz on the NFC North team moving up. Still, a recent offering from ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler reveals multiple teams believe the Broncos or Vikings could loom as destinations for J.J. McCarthy. The Michigan alum looks to have rocketed up the draft board during the pre-draft process, impressing at his pro day after winning a national championship.

A fit in Payton’s scheme points to the Denver tie, Fowler adds. McCarthy could be the target for teams outside the top four, with the Cardinals making it known they are willing to trade down. It would cost the Broncos at least one future first and perhaps two. That will be a big decision to make, as Payton’s choice to re-enter the coaching ranks would see a radically adjusted arc if the team he ended up with sacrifices more future firsts as his tenure takes shape. The Broncos did host McCarthy on a “30” visit this year.

While Payton famously said the Saints were eyeing Patrick Mahomes as a Drew Brees heir apparent in 2017, a move to secure the Broncos a potential long-term option — unless the Nix ties prove genuine — could be quite costly. This will be an interesting team to watch in the coming days and once the draft starts.

Draft Notes: Newton, Lions, Latu, Bills, Titans, Texans, Jets, Eagles, Broncos, Cardinals, Commanders, Giants, Panthers

April 16th, 2024 at 4:51pm CST by Sam Robinson

Wednesday marks the final day for “30” visits during this year’s cycle. Illinois defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton is on the way back from a January surgery to repair a Jones fracture in his foot. Newton went through a belated pro day in Champaign on Tuesday, per Bleacher Report’s Jordan Schultz, who noted more than eight teams were in attendance. The Lions are not one of the teams Schultz named, but the Detroit Free Press’ Dave Birkett notes Newton did go through a visit with the defending NFC North champs. A first-team All-American and reigning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, Newton played through his foot injury last season — a 7.5-sack slate. The acclaimed DT, who ranks as the No. 32 overall prospect on Daniel Jeremiah’s NFL.com big board, also recorded 14.5 tackles for loss in 2022.

Here is the latest from the draft scene:

Speaking of the Lions, they are also believed to be high on NC State linebacker Payton Wilson, The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman notes (subscription required). Last season’s Bednarik award winner (given to Division I-FBS’ top defender), Wilson ranks 41st on Jeremiah’s big board. In need at linebacker, the Cowboys are also believed to be intrigued by Wilson, though Feldman adds some teams are too concerned about his medical history to consider drafting him. Season-ending knee and shoulder injuries halted Wilson in 2018 and 2021, respectively, but the six-year Wolfpack cog has been healthy over the past two years.
The Bills have brought in two likely first-round defenders, hosting edge rusher Laiatu Latu and cornerback Cooper DeJean (via Schultz and NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport). Holding the No. 28 overall pick, Buffalo saw a concerning season from Von Miller (zero sacks after a second ACL rehab journey) and did not re-sign Leonard Floyd. The Bills also released Tre’Davious White and have not replaced him. While wide receiver is the buzz position in Buffalo given the exits of longtime performers, the Bills also have some needs to address on defense.
A fourth team booked a visit with Alabama tackle JC Latham. The first-round-level tackle will meet with the Jets tonight and Wednesday, according to ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter. One of seven tackles Jeremiah places among his top 25 overall prospects, Latham has already met with the Cardinals, Titans and Bears. The Jets have been linked to an O-line investment, and the prospect of moving down from No. 10 has also come up for Gang Green.
Both the Alabama cornerbacks expected to go off the board early in this draft booked more visits before the Wednesday deadline. Terrion Arnold met with the Titans on Monday, Rapoport adds, while Kool-Aid McKinstry visited the Eagles (via the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jeff McLane). With Darius Slay and James Bradberry set to begin the season north of 31st birthdays, the Eagles have been tied to corners. The Titans acquired L’Jarius Sneed via trade and signed Chidobe Awuzie; this would seemingly take Tennessee out of the early-round CB mix. Though, the team did lose Sean Murphy-Bunting and has seen ex-first-rounder Caleb Farley prove undependable.
Although the Texans have taken multiple fliers on former top-10 corners (Jeff Okudah, C.J. Henderson), they may be interested in bolstering their cornerback corps with a higher-upside player. Houston hosted Missouri’s Ennis Rakestraw on Monday, KPRC2’s Aaron Wilson tweets. A Texas native, Rakestraw (Jeremiah’s No. 28 overall prospect) allowed just one touchdown on 28 targets last season, per Wilson. The 5-foot-11 defender broke up 11 passes with the Tigers in 2023.
This draft features a number of tackles set to go off the board in Round 1, but the second round could produce some investments at the position. The Giants, Jets and Commanders scheduled late visits with Arizona’s Jordan Morgan, ESPN.com’s Jordan Raanan tweets. Jeremiah’s No. 49 overall player, Morgan also visited the Bills, Broncos, Cardinals and Panthers, Wilson adds, noting also the three-year Wildcats starter worked out for the Texans during the pre-draft process. Morgan earned first-team All-Pac-12 recognition last season.

Courtland Sutton Absent From Broncos’ Offseason Program; WR Seeking Extension

April 16th, 2024 at 10:23am CST by Adam La Rose

As many NFL offseason programs opened up yesterday, a few notable receivers (CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson) were among the players not present as they seek new contracts. They are not alone in that respect.

Courtland Sutton is away from the Broncos as he too aims to secure a new pact, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports. Two years remain on the 28-year-old’s contract, and he is due a base salary of $13MM in 2024. Only $2MM of that figure is guaranteed, though, and none of his 2025 salary is guaranteed as things currently stand.

Throughout last offseason and toward the 2023 trade deadline, Sutton was frequently tied to speculation he could be dealt. Denver came close to working out a deal with the Ravens, but in the end the former second-rounder remained in place. Jerry Jeudy was ultimately sent to the Browns, clearing the way for Sutton and Tim Patrick to occupy starting receiver roles with the Broncos moving forward.

Faring much better on the health front than many of Denver’s other receiving options in recent years, Sutton has missed considerable time only once in his career (when he was limited to a single game in 2020 due to an ACL tear). Since then, the SMU product has played 17, 15 and 16 games. Sutton has remained a focal point in Denver’s passing attack during that span, totaling 297 targets.

While the one-time Pro Bowler has not managed to reach 1,000 yards since he posted 1,112 in 2019, he rebounded as a red zone threat this past season. Sutton posted 10 touchdowns in 2023, comfortably the highest total of his career, while recording 772 yards on 59 receptions. While those figures are not those deserving of a long-term investment at the top of the receiver market, the Broncos now know they do not need to save future cash and cap space for a Jeudy extension.

Sutton is set to count $17.4MM against the cap this season, and that figure is nearly identical for 2025. An extension could lower those cap charges depending on how it was structured, and on where in the WR pecking order Sutton aims to place himself. The $15MM annual average value of his current pact puts him in a tie for 21st amongst receivers. Regardless of the AAV of a new pact, guaranteed compensation will no doubt be a key sticking point in this case.

Denver’s offense is set to see changes in 2024, the second year with head coach Sean Payton at the helm. The Broncos moved on from Russell Wilson, and a quarterback addition early in the upcoming draft would come as no surprise as a result. Sutton is positioned to continue serving as a central figure in the passing game, but the willingness of the team to engage in extension talks will now become an interesting storyline to follow.

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