This year’s draft could begin with three quarterbacks, and the teams currently holding the top choices have been steadily linked to taking a first-round passer. Teams in need of signal-callers who do not carry friendly draft real estate will, of course, be monitoring the buzz circulating around the Bears, Commanders and Patriots’ draft blueprints.
Two clubs who appear to be among those watching top QB prospects look to be those positioned just outside the top 10. Holding the Nos. 11 and 12 overall picks, the Vikings and Broncos are believed to be interested in drafting a quarterback high. While it will take considerable draft capital to climb into the top three, neither of these two are in good shape at the position. Minnesota, however, may still have the inside track on Kirk Cousins, who has expressed his fondness for his Twin Cities situation on a number of occasions.
[RELATED: Vikings Want To Re-Sign Kirk Cousins]
Some around the league are keeping an eye on the Vikings’ interest in moving up for a passer, ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler offers, noting the team did extensive work on the QB front last year. The Vikes were the team most closely tied to showing Trey Lance interest — before the Cowboys completed a trade for the former 49ers No. 3 overall pick — and they did not come to an agreement on another extension with Cousins.
Guaranteed money into the deal’s third year provided a sticking point, and the Vikings merely restructured Cousins’ contract. The latter transaction has put Minnesota in a time crunch, and the team could face the prospect of losing its starting QB — who has mentioned testing free agency — and being hit with a $28.5MM dead-money bill brought on by void years. If the Vikings do not re-sign Cousins by the start of the 2024 league year (March 13), that $28.5MM accelerates onto their 2024 cap sheet. Not quite the Tom Brady void years-driven cap charge the Buccaneers just faced ($35.1MM), but that is a high dead-cap number devoted to one player.
Cousins, 35, will undoubtedly factor in a potential Vikings desire to trade up for a quarterback into his latest free agency decision. Cousins is the longest-tenured Vikings QB1 since Tommy Kramer, narrowly edging Daunte Culpepper as the third-longest-tenured QB1 in team history. Like Culpepper in 2005, Cousins is coming off a major injury. The Vikings and other teams will be factoring Cousins’ Achilles tear into prospective offers.
The Broncos are almost definitely moving on from Russell Wilson, preparing to enter dead-money infamy in the process. The forthcoming dead-cap hit will cost the Broncos $84.6MM, which will be spread over two offseasons due to the expected post-June 1 designation. This stands to limit the Broncos’ interest in pursuing a pricey veteran — should any starter-caliber arms be available by the time the legal tampering period begins March 11 — and would naturally make Sean Payton‘s team more interested in a draft investment. The Wilson-fronted five-game win streak midway through this season, however, moved the Broncos down to the No. 12 slot. That will complicate a move into high-end QB real estate.
A rumor at the East-West Shrine Game involved Payton being interested in the Broncos moving up to draft Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels, Sportskeeda’s Tony Pauline writes. Of course, the cost of doing business here would be steep — and the team would need a willing seller. The prospect of Denver trading up may already be drowning in cold water, too, with Pauline adding the team should not be considered likely to move in this direction because of the draft capital — and/or established players — that would need to be included.
The Broncos gave up their first-round picks in 2022 and ’23 in the Wilson trade, and while they obtained a 2023 first-rounder from the Dolphins in the Bradley Chubb swap, it was subsequently thrown in to acquire Payton’s rights last year. This stands to be the Broncos’ first chance to use a Round 1 pick since they nabbed Patrick Surtain ninth overall in 2021. Surtain has become one of the NFL’s top young corners, and GM George Paton — who is still with the team despite being the point man behind the Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett calls — said Surtain is viewed as a cornerstone piece. Denver’s actions at last year’s trade deadline, which featured at least two first-rounders to even warrant a Surtain discussion, back that up. Pauline adds the Broncos do not want to part with Surtain and would only do so as a last resort in an effort to trade up for a QB.
Wilson’s 2023 rebound notwithstanding, the Broncos have obviously struggled to fill this spot since Peyton Manning‘s 2016 retirement. They were in the Cousins mix in 2018 but bowed out — as the Vikings emerged in pole position — en route to Case Keenum. The Broncos would seemingly have another shot at Cousins now, though QB demand would still make the veteran starter costly — even after the Achilles tear. As of early February, the Vikings are projected to hold more than $24MM in cap space; the Broncos are nearly $24MM over the projected salary ceiling.
Most around the NFL view the Broncos reconciling with Wilson as unlikely, Fowler adds. If Wilson were to remain on Denver’s roster past the fifth day of the 2024 league year, his 2025 base salary ($37MM) locks in. That would balloon Denver’s 2025 dead money for a Wilson release past $85MM. Hence, the team’s controversial maneuvering in an attempt to move the date on which Wilson’s injury guarantee vests.
Although Wilson was fond of Payton prior to the parties’ partnership, Fowler adds Payton let it be known behind the scenes he was not big on the ex-Seahawks star. Wilson’s penchant for creating plays out of structure ran counter to how Payton prefers his offense to run, being part of the reason — along with the injury guarantee — the Broncos benched him for Jarrett Stidham in Week 17. Fowler mentions Minnesota as a destination Wilson would likely pursue, given Kevin O’Connell‘s presence, in the event Cousins leaves after six years. O’Connell worked alongside ex-Seahawks OC Shane Waldron under Sean McVay. The Vikings also roster Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson.
If/once Wilson departs Denver, his next team will not need to pay him nearly what the Broncos and Seahawks have. Wilson’s 2023 rebound still probably places him as a mid-tier starter, but Fowler adds his next team could build around him more effectively due to the offset language in the Broncos’ five-year, $245MM extension. Wilson signing at a low rate would be punitive for the Broncos, as their two-year starter’s next deal helps determine how much dead money will be on tap.
Cousins and Wilson join Baker Mayfield and Ryan Tannehill as experienced starter options set to hit the market. But Denver and Minnesota will need to weigh their chances of trading up in Round 1 against spending on a veteran. There will be plenty of moving parts at QB for certain teams this offseason, with the Bears’ upcoming Williams-or-Justin Fields decision a rather important domino as well.
I feel Nix will be one of the two best QBs from this draft when all is said and done.
Two best might be overstating it, but I think that Nix is going to be a quality NFL QB. The Broncos are best off staying where they’re at and drafting what drops to them. They need to dig themselves out of the hole that they’ve dug for themselves.
This a deep quarterback draft. While I don’t share the enthusiasm for Nix, I don’t think that the degree of separation for most of the top tier quarterbacks is enormous as far as prospects go. A good coaching staff and good roster I think will be the difference between those who excel in this class and those who do not, because while most seem serviceable with a good ceiling, it doesn’t seem to me that there’s a truly generational talent immediately apparent.
Opinions aside, though, there seem to be a lot of options. I don’t think that a trade-up is necessary, especially when there are “second tier” options (like Spencer Rattler, for instance) in case of emergency who will be available. Denver or Minnesota should be able to roll with whatever they have and have a few options with whomever falls to them.
I am very concerned about Nix, he was trash in the SEC and didn’t break out until he played a much lesser quality defensive conference in the PAC 12. The pac 12 doesn’t have the greatest success rate with nfl qbs.
So, Wilson bruised Payton’s ego by going off script. 85 million dollar dead cap hit sounds like a reasonable response. Talk about my way or the highway. Broncos are headed to be a Walmart team in a Target league.
You must’ve not watched games. Stidham was equally as effective as Wilson, and he’s a backup at best. When you constantly fail to throw over the middle of the field, or drive the offense down the field, you’re not a quality starter. It’s sad that in 2 games as well, stidham had more 20+ yard throws than rus had the whole season combined.
I actually think that Wilson may as well start next year because he’ll be on the team anyway, but I have to say that Russell Wilson was certainly the single biggest thing holding the offense back.
As Mr. Ox pointed out, not being able to utilize the middle of the field or play with timing from the pocket was an extreme limitation, especially in an offense like Payton’s that relies a lot on timing and using plays to set up other plays. That’s why Wilson played so much better to start the game versus his massive slump later, usually in the third: he was playing the scripted plays well, then floundering when successive plays were called. Switching quarterbacks certainly doesn’t guarantee that the Payton setup will work, but Wilson definitely limited the offense through his inability to adequately play the middle of the field or from the pocket consistently.
So, Wilson was definitely more of a hindrance than the coach, despite his improvement from last year (which may have been the worst offense that I’ve ever seen, though this past year’s Patriots came pretty close for being so also close in time). That said, he’s still on the roster at a huge number, and if the Broncos sell a few pieces, they may as well use him. If they choose their core together, it may ironically be better to roll with a new quarterback who can actually play in Payton’s system and see if they can compete. If not…well, there’s always the trade deadline.
I really don’t think the vikes need to trade up for a good QB to take over. Demand is high as always, but it’s not crazy to see penix fall to 11 or beyond (hopefully cousins wouldn’t try to teach him his stand in the pocket and never move technique).
Cousins will definitely be the vikes QB next year. The hope is he will be there on a lower rate to help pay for support so he doesn’t get laid out as much, and has options to get rid of the ball.
Without Cousins the Vikings have no leverage at all in contract extension talks with Jefferson but they should have drafted his heir by now. They are just delaying what will likely be a painful rebuild.
Jefferson…being the best wide receiver in the league…has all the leverage. With or without Cousins, Minnesota has zero leverage when signing JJ. He’s writing his own ticket at this point. Ask and he shall receive. In my opinion Minnesota has a ways to go before being a serious contender. With QB up in the air, trade JJ now and use that draft pick haul to rebuild your team on both sides of the ball. JJ is going to be a wasted career if he sticks around too long in Minnesota.
You can’t just draft a once in a generation WR backup. That’s speaking across the NFL, tyreek is a beast, but no one else is in their league right now.
Addison is star. He did great as their top option when JJ was out.
Cousins will get extended in Minny. They would be foolish to squander trade capital to move all the way to 2 or 3 to get a guy who may or may not ever be a high quality QB.
Personally, I think it’s insane for any team to move that far in draft given the amount of picks and talent it takes to do it. And for what? It’s probably 50/50 that you draft a quality starting QB and even less that you get a Pro Bowl type.
You think the Panthers regret giving up a king’s ransom to move up to take Bryce Young? Or the 49ers to get Trey Lance? Or the Bears to get Justin Fields? Or the Redskins to get RGIII? Or the Eagles to get Carson Wentz? Or the Bears to get Mitch Trubisky? I could go on and on. But teams keep on doing it thinking they’re smarter than everyone else.
History tells us there is just as good a chance at finding a quality QB in the 10-20 range (or even later) as there is in the top 3.
Agree. Just look at the NFC QB in the Superbowl and New England’s GOAT as examples.
I agree, this is a QB rich draft. 6-7 guys have potential to be starters in the NFL.
OT, QB, CB and WR needy teams have plenty of options this draft. Picks are to hard to come by, it cost to much to risk 2 years of quality draft capital for a dice roll. I think Penix, Nix and McCarthy are worth drafting in the first round if a team is not willing to move up for one of the ‘top 3’.
Would the NYG have any interest in Wilson?
I think Wilson needs to get out of NY/NJ. He needs a fresh start somewhere else. In all likelihood he sucks no matter where he goes, but staying in the Big Apple would have to be soul crushing. I think something like Minnesota, Denver, or Seattle would be reasonable places for him in terms of culture and QB need.
Wilson might have to relocate to a deserted island with Tom Hanks to receive any appreciation.
Russel Wilson or Zach Wilson?
I dont know what Russel is doing besides getting paid by DEN to sit. Does any team want him? Rus was having a solid performance, not great but he wasn’t the worse Qb in the league. I would take Rus over Daniel Jones if it was possible to do.
Zach is a different Wilson he has glimpses of great play, moments of good, then a lot to be desired the rest of the time. The Jets o-line didn’t help him any but Zach is not a starter next year imo. Reluctantly going with Danny Dimes over Zach.
Flacco, Tannehill, Cousins, both Wilson’s are available, Mac Jones is also a name that is going to float around as a potential trade.
The Giants are stuck with Dan Jones, I think the coaching staff has no choice but to back him and build around him in 2024. Drafting Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze should at least give him a big time weapon to target.
And then there’s Andy Reid, who traded from #27 to #10 in 2017 to get Mahomes, whose Texas Tech team went 3-6 his senior year. If a GM/coach truly believes in a guy and they have plan, WHO makes the pick is as important as the pick himself. Do the Vikings or Broncos have that? I don’t know. But they can’t be afraid of a bold move if they really believe in a guy.
Sean is sticking to his Saints MO? He loves old expensive vets, w/ very few young blood coming into the ranks and will be around .500. He can beat bad teams, but will lose to good teams. Feel bad for Bronco fans.
Both Minnesota and Denver should be calling the Bengals about Jake Browning. Browning shoes in history starts with the Bengals he is ready to be an NFL starter and he fits both the Denver and Minnesota offenses. Browning will be making the NFL minimum next year. I am sure the Bengals will want some draft capital in return but will cost less than it will to move up and draft a rookie QB.
The Vi-Queens HAD Browning for multiple seasons and let him leave.
I would HATE to be a Bronco fan right now. They are in cap hell, have no QB, an aging D and don’t pick until middle of the round b/c of that late season win steak that did nothing for them. They are looking at a rebuild very soon. Too bad Peyton has no patience b/c you can get a very quality QB like Nix or McCarthy right where your at in R1 of the draft. Good luck….
It is pretty clear that Denver isn’t shy about trading draft picks or players to get things done – thus I think they are more likely to make a move than Minnesota.
I suspect the Broncos will move heaven and earth to dump Wilson (albeit eating a large portion of his salary), and will sweeten the deal with one or more of their under-achieving receiver corps.
A question for the capologists.
I assume that the Broncos could trade Wilson to the Raiders by doing little more than picking up a chunk of salary. I’m just not sure how that works relative to the dead-money charge, and future guarantees.
Any ideas?