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Offseason In Review: Washington

By | at July 7, 2015 6:06 pm

Notable signings:

Washington’s secondary was rather dreadful in 2014 and it was no secret that they’d be going hard after corners on the open market. A few days after the start of free agency, Washington reached agreement with ex-49ers corner Chris Culliver on a four-year deal that features $16MM in guaranteed cash. When Luke Adams listed PFR’s top 50 free agents in March, he ranked Culliver 24th overall and fourth among cornerbacks, behind Byron Maxwell, Brandon Flowers, and Kareem Jackson. Culliver will help shore up a secondary whose cornerbacks got burned on a regular basis in 2014. Bashaud Breeland, E.J. Biggers, and David Amerson saw the majority of the snaps at the position for the team, and all three corners ranked inPro Football Focus’ bottom 10 at the position. Culliver limited opposing quarterbacks to a completion percentage of 50.7% and a 66.5 passer rating when they threw into his coverage, according to PFF (subscription required). PFF’s grades placed Culliver as the 14th-best cornerback out of 108 qualified players. Elsewhere in the secondary, Washington picked up former Seahawk Jeron Johnson. Johnson was Seattle’s No. 3 safety behind the league’s best tandem, but now he’ll have a chance to make his own mark with a new team – likely as a starter.

Not content with just beefing up the secondary, Washington invested a great deal of money in improving their defensive line. Their biggest free agent D-Line deal went to noteworthy defensive tackle Stephen Paea. Only Suh and Kyle Williams had more quarterback pressures from the defensive tackle position in 2014 than Paea’s 47, according to Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required). Now in a 3-4 system, Paea figures to see time at both nose tackle and at defensive end.

Ricky Jean-Francois was released by the Colts in February for cap reasons and Washington was delighted to pick him up soon after. Jean-Francois, 28, parlayed a part-time role with the 2012 NFC champion 49ers into a four-year, $22MM pact with the Colts, who made him a starter and increased his playing time. Jean-Francois held his own in the increased role, ranking 26th out of 47 qualified 3-4 defensive ends in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required). He also set new career highs last season with 34 tackles and three sacks.

It’s always hard to peg how much free agents will get once they hit the open market but few expected Terrance Knighton‘s personal market to collapse the way it did. The man known as Pot Roast ranked 16th on our top 50 free agents list early in the offseason but wound up having to settle for a one-year, $4.45MM pact with $2.95MM guaranteed. One can speculate that Knighton’s physical conditioning scared off some teams, but whatever the reason, Washington appears to have come away with one of the best free agent values of the offseason. The six-year veteran was an integral part of a Broncos team that had the league’s second-best run defense in 2014, and Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rated Knighton 12th among 81 qualifying D-tackles last season.

On the other side of the ball, Washington retained Niles Paul with a three-year deal before he could reach free agency. The 25-year-old saw just 28 total targets during his first three seasons in the NFL, primarily serving as a blocker and a special-teamer in Washington. However, when Jordan Reed was sidelined early in the 2014 campaign, Paul got an extended look as a pass-catcher, and took advantage by setting new career highs in receptions (39) and receiving yards (507).

After the start of free agency, Washington struck a deal to retain backup quarterback Colt McCoy. While McCoy will be behind Robert Griffin III on the depth chart to start the year, either he or Kirk Cousins could get the nod if RGIII struggles.

Notable losses:

Brian Orakpo signed with the Titans after a disappointing 2014 season that ended after just seven games when he tore his pectoral muscle and was placed on IR. Still, despite the fact that he logged just 0.5 sacks last year, the former first-round pick was viewed as one of the top free agent players a year ago, when he was coming off a 10.5-sack season and earned a franchise tag from Washington. Orakpo was ranked as the NFL’s fourth-best 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 by Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required). Per PFF, Orakpo racked up an impressive 51 total quarterback pressures in ’13.

Safety Ryan Clark indicated that he wanted to keep playing back in December, but he had a change of heart in the New Year. After a career in which he played 177 games (152 starts), racking up 928 total tackles, 55 passes defended, and 16 interceptions, Clark signed a one-day deal with Pittsburgh so that he could retire as a member of the Steelers.

Running back Roy Helu rushed for only 216 yards in Washington last year, but was a focal point of the club’s passing attack, catching 42 balls for nearly 500 yards. He drew interest from several teams around the league before ultimately putting pen to paper with Oakland.

Chris Chester, 32, signed a five-year, $20MM deal with Washington before the 2011 season, and started every game the team has played since then, at right guard. While Chester hasn’t been consistently above-average at the position, he hasn’t been a major liability either and it was somewhat surprising to see him let go. In 2014, he played the eighth-most offensive snaps among guards (1,091), and ranked 33rd among 78 qualified players, according to Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required).

Right after siging Jean-Francois, Washington released veteran defensive tackle Barry Cofield. Cofield, 31, suffered his first major injury in 2014, as he missed about half the season after an ankle injury forced him onto the injured reserve list with the designation to return. While the veteran lineman returned to action in November, he only started three of eight games for the season, marking the first time since 2007 that he appeared in a game he didn’t start.

Santana Moss says that he still wants to play in the NFL, but he might have to settle for an off-field role. Washington owner Daniel Snyder has already spoken with the veteran about a potential job, so it sounds likely that he’ll still be in the nation’s capital in 2015.

Veteran cornerback Tracy Porter had one year left on his deal but Washington opted to let him hit the open market early. Porter, 28, was a full-time starter at cornerback for the Raiders in 2013, and signed a two-year, $6MM deal in free agency last year with Washington, but saw his role reduced significantly in 2014. Before he landed on the injured reserve list in November, ending his season, Porter only played 89 snaps for Washington, finding himself buried on the depth chart behind Bashaud Breeland, E.J. Biggers, David Amerson, and others for a good chunk of 2014.

Biggers, of course, is also gone. The 28-year-old spent his five-year NFL career in Tampa Bay and Washington, playing 76 overall regular season games before signing on with the Eagles this year. Although he has experience at both cornerback and safety, Biggers primarily played corner in 2014, recording 32 tackles and four passes defended in 465 defensive snaps. He also occasionally contributed on special teams.

Tyler Polumbus was Washington’s primary right tackle for the last three seasons, but his services were no longer needed in D.C. this year with a top draft pick taking over the position. Polumbus signed on with Atlanta in May.

Extensions and restructures:

After signing a four-year extension worth $17MM in February of last year, cornerbackDeAngelo Hall played in only three games before tearing his Achilles and being placed on injured reserve. He later re-tore the Achilles in October, leaving his future even further in doubt. With that in mind, Hall agreed to a contract restructure that will eliminate his 2015 salary guarantees. Hall, in all likelihood, probably would have been shown the door if he didn’t agree to the move.

Trades:

  • Acquired S Dashon Goldson and a 2016 seventh-round pick from the Buccaneers in exchange for a 2016 sixth-round pick.
  • Acquired a 2015 third-round pick (No. 95; RB Matt Jones), a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 112; G Arie Kouandjio), a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 167), and a 2015 sixth-round pick (No. 181; S Kyshoen Jarrett) from the Seahawks in exchange for a 2015 third-round pick (No. 69; WR Tyler Lockett).
  • Acquired a a 2015 sixth-round pick (No. 187; WR Evan Spencer) and a 2016 sixth-round pick from the Saints in exchange for a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 167; CB Damian Swann).

NewWashington GM Scot McCloughan was a member of the 49ers’ front office when the team drafted Dashon Goldson back in 2007 and he decided to orchestrate a reunion this year. Goldson signed a lucrative five-year contract with the Bucs after coming off an All-Pro season in San Francisco. However, his production has slipped a little over the last two seasons, as he has battled injuries. In 2014, among 87 qualified safeties, only the aforementioned Ryan Clark performed worse than Goldson, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Goldson’s -14.5 pass coverage grade was dead last among safeties — per PFF, he allowed a 69.7% completion percentage and a 127.2 passer rating on throws into his coverage. Goldson is hopeful that a change of scenery will allow him to return to his prior form.

Draft picks:

  • 1-5: Brandon Scherff, OL (Iowa): Signed
  • 2-38: Preston Smith, DE/OLB (Mississippi State): Signed
  • 3-95: Matt Jones, RB (Florida): Signed
  • 4-105: Jamison Crowder, WR (Duke): Signed
  • 4-112: Arie Kouandjio, G (Alabama): Signed
  • 5-141: Martrell Spaight, OLB (Arkansas): Signed
  • 6-181: Kyshoen Jarrett, S (Virginia Tech): Signed
  • 6-182: Tevin Mitchel, CB (Arkansas): Signed
  • 6-187: Evan Spencer, WR (Ohio State): Signed
  • 7-222: Austin Reiter, C (South Florida): Signed

A number of teams in need of offensive line help had their eye on Iowa’s Brandon Scherff. Washington wound up taking him at No. 5, which surprised some since Washington was believed to be looking at pass rushers. Scherff is expected to start his NFL career at the right tackle position, across from Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams.

In the fourth round, McCloughan stayed local and chose DeMatha star Arie Kouandjio.

Other:

Fans have been clamoring for a GM change for years now and they finally got their wish when Scot McCloughan took over Bruce Allen‘s former title. The former 49ers general manager also discussed positions with the Jets and Raiders, but in hindsight it now looks like those talks were more about leverage than anything else. McCloughan will report to Allen, but will have final say over the club’s 53-man roster.

Washington looked hard at former 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio for their own DC job, but he wound up choosing the Bears. After that, Washington opted to hire Joe Barry. Barry will be tasked with turning around a unit that finished 27th in DVOA in 2014, including 32nd against the pass. The team also allowed 27.4 points per game this season, tied for the third-worst mark in the NFL. Barry has one previous stint as a DC under his belt, with the Lions from 2007 to 2008. Of course, Barry left that position at a low point, following the club’s 0-16 campaign in ’08. Barry’s run in Detroit is perhaps best remembered for prompting one reporter to ask his father-in-law, head coach Rod Marinelli, if he wished his daughter had “married a better defensive coordinator.”

There was some question as to whether Washington would exercise it’s 2016 option for Robert Griffin III given his struggles and injury history. Ultimately, they decided to trigger the fifth-year option worth $16.155MM. It’s a significant investment for a player who doesn’t even have the starting quarterback job locked up, but the salary doesn’t become fully guaranteed until the first day of the 2016 league year.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Trent Williams, LT: $14,230,393
  2. Pierre Garcon, WR: $9,700,000
  3. Desean Jackson, WR: $9,250,000
  4. Ryan Kerrigan, OLB: $7,038,000
  5. Robert Griffin III, QB: $6,719,713
  6. Jason Hatcher, DT: $5,203,125
  7. DeAngelo Hall, CB: $4,812,500
  8. Kory Lichtensteiger, C: $4,300,000
  9. Chris Culliver, CB: $4,250,000
  10. Stephen Paea, DT: $4,250,000

In January of 2014, Washington hired Jay Gruden to be the team’s next head coach after Mike Shanahan was let go. Almost a year later, many wondered if he’d get a second season. Ultimately, Gruden was assured his job after a convincing Week 16 victory over the Eagles. If Washington struggles again in 2015, it’s far from an automatic that Gruden will get a third year to try and right the ship.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

2 comments Offseason In Review PFR Originals Washington Commanders

Largest 2015 Cap Hits By Team: AFC South

By | at July 7, 2015 1:33 pm

Before NFL training camps get underway later this month, we’ll be taking a closer look at the top 2015 cap hits for teams around the league. We began our series in June by focusing on the NFC East and AFC East divisions, and last week we looked at the NFC North, AFC North, and NFC South. Today, we’ll head back to the AFC to examine the South division.

Listed below are the top 10 cap hits for the coming season for each of the four AFC South franchises, accompanied by some observations on the spending habits of those clubs. Let’s dive in….

Houston Texans:

  1. J.J. Watt, DL: $13,969,000
  2. Johnathan Joseph, CB: $11,750,000
  3. Duane Brown, LT: $9,500,000
  4. Arian Foster, RB: $8,706,250
  5. Brian Cushing, LB: $7,891,250
  6. Kareem Jackson, CB: $7,453,125
  7. Andre Johnson, WR: $7,319,585 (dead money)
  8. Brian Hoyer, QB: $5,218,750
  9. Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB: $5,062,045
  10. Derek Newton, RT: $4,500,000
    Total: $81,370,005

Not many players have an interior defensive lineman atop their list of cap hits, but no other team has an interior defensive lineman that has the same impact on the field that Watt does. Without a top quarterback to pay, the Texans are able to devote a significant chunk of cap space to defensive players like Watt. Of course, the All-Pro had originally been slated to have an even higher cap number in 2015 before a restructure reduced that figure by $8MM.

Joseph, Cushing, and Jackson are the notable defenders besides Watt taking up sizable pieces of cap room, and their performances will go a long way to determining how the Houston defense performs this season, and what sort of value the Texans are getting out of their top 10 cap hits.

Cushing stayed mostly healthy in 2014 after missing more games than he played in 2012 and 2013, but it wasn’t one of his better seasons. Joseph, meanwhile, has been effective but perhaps overpriced — an extension this offseason added two seasons to his contract at a rate of $7MM per year, which is a more reasonable rate. As for Jackson, he re-upped with the Texans in the offseason, so this will be the first year of his new deal with the team.

Indianapolis Colts:

  1. Vontae Davis, CB: $11,250,000
  2. Andre Johnson, WR: $7,500,000
  3. Robert Mathis, OLB: $7,470,586
  4. Anthony Castonzo, LT: $7,438,000
  5. Arthur Jones, DL: $7,100,000
  6. Andrew Luck, QB: $7,034,363
  7. Trent Cole, OLB: $6,953,125
  8. Gosder Cherilus, RT: $6,900,000
  9. Greg Toler, CB: $5,833,334
  10. D’Qwell Jackson, LB: $5,750,000
    Total: $73,229,408

With only one player on the roster whose cap hit exceeds $7.5MM, the Colts have loaded up on players in that $5MM-7.5MM range — everyone but Davis on this list is separated by a mere $1.75MM. Of course, some of those players will likely eventually have to take pay cuts or be released when Luck’s big payday arrives, but for now, the fact that the former No. 1 pick remains on his rookie contract allows the Colts to surround him with several mid-level investments.

Of course, one reason the Colts were able to add several of these players at reasonable prices is that many are likely past their primes. Mathis is 34, Cole will turn 33 in October, and Jackson will turn 32 in September. Those veterans are expected to be key contributors on defense, and if their performances don’t match up to their salaries, we could see them become release candidates a year from now.

The other noteworthy veteran on this list is Johnson, who shows up on two separate top-10 lists in the AFC South, since he’s still counting for over $7MM in dead money on the Texans’ cap. The standout receiver will turn 34 later this week. However, taking into account the numbers he has posted in recent years in Houston while playing with mediocre quarterbacks, it’s not hard to see why the Colts were willing to commit a decent portion of cap room to him this year to see what he can do with Luck.

Jacksonville Jaguars:

  1. Julius Thomas, TE: $10,300,000
  2. Jared Odrick, DL: $9,000,000
  3. Jermey Parnell, RT: $8,000,000
  4. Paul Posluszny, LB: $6,885,416
  5. Davon House, CB: $6,500,000
  6. Luke Joeckel, LT: $5,782,254
  7. Sen’Derrick Marks, DT: $5,425,000
  8. Zane Beadles, G: $5,000,000
  9. Chris Clemons, DE: $5,000,000
  10. Blake Bortles, QB: $4,694,273
    Total: $66,586,943

The first few names on the Jaguars’ list of top 10 cap hits reads like a who’s-who of the team’s offseason free agent signings. Thomas, Odrick, Parnell, and House all headed to Jacksonville as free agents in March, while Posluszny reworked his deal with the club.

Most of the time, cap numbers for newly-signed players start small before increasing in the later years of their contracts, but the huge amount of cap room Jacksonville held heading into the offseason allowed the team to frontload those deals — the 2015 cap numbers for those four free agent signees all exceed the annual values of their contracts. In 2016, their combined cap hits will total $27.8MM, as opposed to $33.8MM this year.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Jaguars’ free agent class performs in 2015, since players like Parnell and House weren’t even starters for their old teams. But, like every other team in the AFC South, Jacksonville isn’t currently devoting big bucks to its quarterback, which gives the club the flexibility to roll the dice on these players with upside. If they don’t pan out, they’ll be gone long before Bortles reaches his second contract.

Tennessee Titans:

  1. Jason McCourty, CB: $8,600,000
  2. Andy Levitre, G: $8,600,000
  3. Michael Griffin, S: $8,100,000
  4. Jurrell Casey, DL: $6,720,000
  5. Delanie Walker, TE: $5,275,000
  6. Sammie Lee Hill, DT: $4,666,668
  7. Brian Orakpo, OLB: $4,468,750
  8. Derrick Morgan, OLB: $4,000,000
  9. Da’Norris Searcy, S: $3,625,000
  10. Ropati Pitoitua, DL: $3,612,500
    Total: $57,667,918

No team that we’ve examined in our series so far has a smaller No. 1 cap charge than the Titans, whose $8.6MM figures for McCourty and Levitre pale in comparison to some other cap hits around the league — you could triple that number and still not match Drew Brees‘ $26.4MM, for instance. The lack of an eight-digit cap hit for any player ensures that the Titans’ top 10 players count for only about $57.67MM overall against the cap, which is also easily the lowest figure we’ve encountered so far.

With nearly $26MM in cap room still remaining, the Titans have more space than every other NFL team except the Jaguars, and it’s a little curious that the Titans didn’t emulate their division rivals when it comes to structuring free agent contracts. Orakpo, Morgan, and Searcy all signed free agent deals with Tennessee this spring, but those contracts aren’t nearly as frontloaded as Jacksonville’s. That trio will count for $20.785MM against the Titans’ 2016 cap, nearly doubling their combined total for 2015.

Of course, there’s one notable name missing from this list, as first-round pick Marcus Mariota has yet to sign his rookie deal with the Titans. As the second overall pick, Mariota will be in line for a 2015 cap number of $4,402,541 when he eventually signs his contract, which would place him eighth on this list, bumping off Pitoitua.

Information from Over the Cap was used in the creation of this post.

2 comments Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars PFR Originals Tennessee Titans

2015 Release Candidates: AFC North

By | at July 7, 2015 11:52 am

Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.

Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.

After looking at the AFC East and NFC East last week, let’s dive into the AFC North…

Baltimore Ravens:

  • Arthur Brown, LB: A rare draft whiff by general manager Ozzie Newsome, Brown has failed to live up to his second-round status during his two pro seasons. After playing 436 snaps during his rookie year, Brown saw action on just 51 plays in 2014, all of which came on special teams. The 25-year-old Brown could act as valuable depth behind starters C.J. Mosley and Daryl Smith if he could put it all together, but it’s hard to predict future success for a player who wasn’t trusted to see the field for even a single defensive snap. Baltimore would save less than $800K by waiving Brown at this point, but I’m guessing it’s a move that they’ll give due consideration. Brown did reportedly draw trade interest last fall, so perhaps the Ravens will try to deal him first. Prediction: waived.
  • Sam Koch, P: Koch has the 12th-highest 2015 cap charge on Baltimore’s roster, a financial oddity I would have thought rare around the league. However, six other clubs (Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Giants, Saints, and Buccaneers) also have a punter within their top dozen cap hits, meaning nearly a quarter of NFL clubs are paying punters quite well. Cutting Koch would leave just $600K in dead money on the Ravens’ ledger (against $2.5MM in savings), but given that Koch did lead the league in net punting average last season, I think Baltimore will keep him around rather than looking for a cheaper option. Prediction: not released.
  • The Ravens traded DT Haloti Ngata and restructured CB Lardarius Webb, both of whom would have been candidates for release otherwise.

Cincinnati Bengals:

  • Leon Hall, CB: Now on the wrong side of 30, Hall has torn each of his Achilles’ in the last four seasons, and (probably in large part due to those injuries) he’s not the same player he once was. That doesn’t mean he can’t still be effective — especially in the slot, where he’s expected to spend most of his time in 2015 — but it’s not clear that he’s worth his $9.6MM cap figure (second-highest on the Bengals roster). Cincinnati has not threatened Hall with release, or even asked him to take a paycut, despite the fact that his role as the club’s No. 1 corner has been usurped. I’d guess that 31 of 32 organizations would have at least asked Hall to restructure by now, but given that the Bengals haven’t, I expect Hall to stick around for 2015. Prediction: not released.
  • Domata Peko, DT: Much that can be said about Hall can be said about Peko, in that most clubs would have cut ties long ago. The difference with Peko is that he never achieved the heights that Hall had, and his current level of play (second-worst 4-3 DT in the league in 2014, per Pro Football Focus; subscription required) is far worse than any lows Hall ever sunk to. PFF has graded Peko as a bottom-20 defensive tackle in six of the past seven seasons, but his snap count never decreases, always hovering around the 700 mark. The Bengals even signed Peko to an extension last March, but all of his guarantees have been paid out, meaning the club could release him and clear his entire $3.7MM cap figure. But there’s no reason to think Cincinnati will do so now, even if Peko does begin to lose playing time to reserve Brandon Thompson. Prediction: not released.

Cleveland Browns:

  • Gary Barnidge/Jim Dray, TE: The Browns added ex-Cardinal Rob Housler during the offseason to replace Jordan Cameron as their receiving weapon at tight end, but the club might need to decide between Barnidge and Dray for its No. 2 role, especially if it decides to keep undrafted rookie free agent E.J. Bibbs — who has drawn rave reviews from coaches — on the final 53-man roster. Barnidge is cheaper and has been the better player as of late, meaning Cleveland could be forced to cut Dray, and save $1.6MM in the process. Prediction: Dray released.
  • Ishmaa’ily Kitchen, DT: Kitchen signed his restricted free agent tender near the end of May, meaning he’s scheduled to earn $1.542MM during the upcoming season. That money isn’t guaranteed, however, and given that Kitchen is now somewhat buried on the Browns’ depth chart following the additions of Danny Shelton, Xavier Cooper, and Randy Starks, I wonder if the club might try to lower his salary. As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap explains, once the RFA period has passed, the team — knowing the player has limited options — can use that leverage to reduce his salary, often offering a minimum salary and a few hundred thousand dollars in guarantees. I could see Cleveland using this strategy, but if Kitchen balks, he could just be cut. Prediction: released.
  • Craig Robertson, LB: The 27-year-old Robertson is entering the final season of his rookie contract, and having shown excellent improvement over the past year — he posted a -15.0 PFF grade in 2013 but moved up to +2.2 in 2014 — it’s unlikely that he’ll be cut, especially given his pass coverage skills. But he did lose snaps to rookie Chris Kirksey last season, and the Browns could save more than $2.3MM by parting ways with him. Prediction: not released.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

  • Cortez Allen, CB: After agreeing to four-year extension worth $26MM in September, Allen’s play became absolutely ghastly, and his snap counts gradually dwindled until he was benched mid-way through the season; he subsequently broke his thumb and was placed on injured reserve in early December. Allen is only 26 years old, is expected to regain his starting job in 2015, and was paid a $3MM roster bonus earlier this year — all of which means it’s highly unlikely that the Steelers sever ties. But the club could still save more than $5MM by doing so, and given Allen’s struggles, it’s probably a discussion management has had. Prediction: not released.
  • Cam Thomas, DT: Thomas did nothing in his first season in Pittsburgh to justify his two-year, $4MM deal, grading as the league’s worst 3-4 defensive end, according to PFF. Steelers coaches obviously noticed his subpar production, as during the last five weeks of the season, Thomas played on just 57 of a possible 319 snaps — even for a reserve, 17% playing time is low. The only impediment to his release is Pittsburgh’s lack of depth along the defensive line, but the club simply can’t justify Thomas’ $2.5MM cap charge. I think they’ll cut him, saving $2MM of that total in the process. Prediction: released.
2 comments Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns PFR Originals Pittsburgh Steelers

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Eagles

By | at July 6, 2015 9:32 pm

We’ve seen some teams shake things up in the offseason, but few teams have undergone the kind of overhaul that the Eagles have. Coach Chip Kelly secured complete control in the front office and we’re all waiting to see whether he’s crazy, a genius, or some mixture of both.

Notable signings:

Byron Maxwell was widely viewed as the best FA corner available and ranked as the No. 9 overall free agent on PFR’s Top 50 list. The 27-year-old enjoyed his first season as full-time starter for the Seahawks in 2014, starting 12 games as Seattle made it second consecutive Super Bowl appearance. The Eagles were long seen as the favorites to land Maxwell and they were able to go wire-to-wire to land him as the Jets, another possible suitor, were zeroed in on a reunion with Darrelle Revis. At $63MM over six years with $25MM fully guaranteed, it’s very possible that Maxwell was an overpay. However, the Eagles believe that he will be a significant upgrade over Cary Williams, who was cut loose. Interesting note on that front, however: Pro Football Focus (subscription required) didn’t see a big difference between Maxwell and Williams in 2014. Maxwell finished the year with a -0.2 overall grade, good for 45th amongst corners. Williams, meanwhile, finished with a -1.0 score, putting him 49th amongst all corners. In short, both players were painted as average corners by the advanced metrics. He’ll be joined in the secondary by Walter Thurmond, who apparently was not thrilled with the Giants’ medical care. Thurmond will be making the switch to safety, a transition he says he can make comfortably.

DeMarco Murray (vertical)
Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Did DeMarco Murray put too many miles on his odometer during his brilliant 2014 campaign? Kelly certainly doesn’t think so. There were many teams who were linked to the former Cowboys star throughout the year, but no one expected the Eagles to get heavily into the mix and come away signing him. Murray, who has struggled with injuries in years past, put it all together in 2014 for his best campaign yet. The 27-year-old ran for 1,845 yards and 13 scores with 2,261 all-purpose yards. After a season in which he showed that he can stay healthy, produce (4.7 YPC), and work at a nearly unprecedented rate, Murray hit the open market as the top RB available. The advanced numbers also showed that Murray was also at the top of the heap last season. Pro Football Focus‘ numbers (subscription required) resulted in an overall score of 15.2, placing him fifth amongst all tailbacks in 2014. His lack of meaningful production in the passing game, fumbles, and below average blocking were his only real demerits. Can Murray repeat his ’14 performance? Or, at the very least, can he do better than the guy he’s replacing? (More on that later.)

Before the Murray signing, the Eagles added Ryan Mathews and, at the time, it appeared that he would be the new No. 1 back in Philadelphia. Once Murray was inked, many wonders if Mathews would wind up elsewhere or, at the very least, reworking the performance-based incentives in his contract. At the end of the day, Mathews stayed and he’s now slated to work in tandem with Murray and Darren Sproles. Considered an injury-prone player for the first three seasons of his career, Mathews finally stayed healthy and put it all together for the Chargers in 2013, rushing for a career-high 1,255 yards. He was unable to keep that run of good health going in 2014 though, playing just eight games for San Diego due to injuries. The former 12th overall pick can be one of the league’s best backs when he’s at 100% and he could help form a lethal three-headed backfield if he stays healthy.

Now, the question is, who will be handing the ball off to those backs? Well, one possibility is Mark Sanchez, who was re-signed to a two-year contract worth $9MM with $5.5MM guaranteed. Sanchez played nine games for the Eagles in 2014, with mixed results. He completed over 64% of his passes, averaging 268 yards per game with a 14 to 11 touchdown to interception ratio. Sanchez, a former No. 5 overall pick, will duke it out with a former No. 1 overall pick to be the team’s starting signal caller. Tim Tebow is also on the depth chart, though he is considered to be the fourth quarterback at this time.

If Murray ever finds himself homesick, he turn to Miles Austin for some familiarity. Austin, of course, isn’t the same sort of impact player Murray is at this stage of his career, but he had a decent bounce-back season in Cleveland last year. In 2014, Austin caught 47 balls for 568 yards and two touchdowns in 12 games. The 30-year-old has racked up 348 catches for more than 5,000 yards during his nine-year NFL career, earning a pair of Pro Bowl nods during his time with the Cowboys. Of course, he has also missed a ton of time due to injuries in recent years.

After some offseason deliberations between offers from the Eagles and Giants, linebacker Brandon Graham ultimately opted to remain in Philly. In February, Graham was said to be seeking a four-year deal in the neighborhood of $30MM, with $20MM in guaranteed money. Ultimately, he settled for less, but still got $14MM guaranteed on a $26MM pact. The 21-year-old recorded 5.5 sacks and 46 total tackles in 2014. The former first-round choice has moved around a bit in the front seven over the years, having seen time at defensive tackle, defensive end, and outside linebacker. Last season, he played the bulk of his snaps at outside linebacker and enjoyed his best season to date. The advanced metrics at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) placed him as the third best OLB in a 3-4 set last season. PFF was also high on Graham in 2013, ranking him as the 15th best outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme.

Notable losses:

The Eagles and Evan Mathis were wrestling over a contract dispute all offseason long until the situation reached a rather surprising conclusion. Many expected that Mathis and the Eagles would eventually reach a compromise or that the guard would find a suitable trade after he was given permission to seek one out. Instead, the Eagles simply decided to cut Mathis loose in June. Mathis, of course, is considered one of the league’s best guards. In 2014, despite playing just 608 offensive snaps, the former third-round pick ranked as the league’s best left guard, performing particularly well as a run blocker, according to Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required). PFF had previously graded Mathis as the NFL’s No. 1 guard in 2011, 2012, and 2013. The veteran continues to look for his next NFL home.

We may never know the real inner workings of the negotiations between Jeremy Maclin and the Eagles, but it didn’t seem like Philly put up much of a fight to retain him in March. Maclin, coming off a breakout season in which he caught 85 passes for more than 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns, was quickly scooped up by the Chiefs, who gave him a five-year, $55MM deal with $22.5MM fully guaranteed.

Despite initially engaging in discussions to keep him around on a reworked contract, the Eagles opted to part ways with Trent Cole in early March. Cole, 32, was a fixture on the Eagles’ defense since being selected by the club in the fifth round of the 2005 draft. During his 10 years in Philadelphia, Cole played 155 games (145 starts), racking up 85.5 sacks, 569 tackles, and 19 forced fumbles. However, after posting six consecutive seasons with eight or more sacks from 2006 to 2011, Cole’s production fell off — he has recorded just 17.5 sacks since 2012. Cole eventually wound up hooking on with the Colts on a two-year, $16MM deal with $8MM guaranteed. Graham will now be counted on to supply the production in Cole’s absence.

Byron Maxwell came east to join the Eagles and Cary Williams switched places with him, joining the Legion of Boom in Seattle. The 30-year-old Williams started all 16 games in each of the past three seasons but he was probably miscast as a No. 1 corner with the Eagles. Williams can earn $18MM over three seasons on his new deal with the Seahawks and he won’t have to pay state income tax either.

Nate Allen started 15 games for the Eagles last season at safety, racking up 62 tackles, four interceptions, three fumble recoveries, five pass deflections, and a sack. Allen had a pretty solid year in 2014, finishing out with a 3.9 overall grade according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), good for 28th out of 87 qualified safeties. Still, as expected, the Eagles let him go in free agency.

Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rated Bradley Fletcher as the 92nd best cornerback last season out of 108 qualified players at the position. That doesn’t make Fletcher sound like much of a corner, but was much better in 2013 when he ranked 44th out of 110 players at the position. The Eagles didn’t have the patience to find out of he could get back to his old form, but the Pats decided to roll the dice.

Long before Mathis was shown the door, the Eagles did the same with fellow offensive lineman Todd Herremans. Over the course of the last decade, the 10-year veteran has appeared in 127 games for the Eagles, starting 124 of them at every spot besides center on the offensive line. In recent years, Herremans had served as Philadelphia’s right guard or right tackle, though his 2014 campaign came to an early end due to a biceps injury.

Extensions and restructures:

DeMeco Ryans’ 2014 season came to an early end when he suffered a torn Achilles and landed on the injured reserve list. In the eight games he played for the Eagles, he logged 45 tackles, recovered a fumble, and grabbed an interception. Ryans saw his deal extended by one season, even though the Eagles didn’t seem to necessarily need him in the wake of one of their biggest offseason moves. Ryans’ 2014 season came to an early end when he suffered a torn Achilles and landed on the injured reserve list. In the eight games he played for the Eagles, he logged 45 tackles, recovered a fumble, and grabbed an interception.

Trades:

  • Acquired LB Kiko Alonso from the Bills in exchange for RB LeSean McCoy.
  • Acquired QB Sam Bradford and a 2015 fifth-round pick from the Rams in exchange for QB Nick Foles, a 2015 fourth-round pick, and a 2016 second-round pick. Eagles will acquire a 2016 fourth-round pick if Bradford plays less than 50% of Philadelphia’s snaps in 2015, or a 2016 third-round pick if Bradford doesn’t play at all in 2015 due to injury.
  • Acquired a 2015 second-round pick (No. 47; DB Eric Rowe) and a 2015 sixth-round pick (No. 191; CB JaCorey Shepherd) from the Dolphins in exchange for a 2015 second-round pick (No. 52; DT Jordan Phillips), a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 145; CB Bobby McCain), and a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 156; CB Tony Lippett).
  • Acquired a 2016 third-round pick from the Lions in exchange for a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 113; DT Gabe Wright).

The trade of star running back LeSean McCoy to the Bills for linebacker Kiko Alonso will go down as one of the most surprising moves of the 2015 offseason and also as the trade that nearly broke PFR. There were rumblings of discord between Kelly and McCoy, but few saw a deal like this coming.

McCoy was not the electrifying playmaker in 2014 that he was in 2013 but he still had a very productive season in terms of traditional stats, with 1,319 rushing yards and a 4.2 YPC average. The advanced metrics, meanwhile, show a much sharper contrast between the two campaigns. In 2013, McCoy was rated as the very best tailback in football according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), racking up a 27.3 overall rating which was more than 8 points higher than the runner-up, Jamaal Charles. In 2014, however, McCoy was near the bottom of all qualified tailbacks with a fairly terrible -9.3 grade thanks in large part to his poor showing in the passing game.

Alonso, 25 in August, didn’t see the field in 2014 after tearing his ACL in July of 2014. After being selected in the second round of the 2013 draft, Alonso finished second in voting for Defensive Rookie of the Year after totaling 87 tackles, four interceptions, and two sacks. PFF (subscription required) rated Alonso as the ninth-best inside linebacker in the NFL in his rookie season. Because Alonso spent the year on the NFI (non-football injury) list, he’ll only be a restricted free agent after 2016. He’s also significantly cheaper than McCoy, which gave Kelly some additional breathing room this spring.

Right around the start of free agency, the Eagles shipped Nick Foles to the Rams in exchange for former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford. Surprisingly, it was the Eagles who gave up more in draft compensation to make the swap happen. Foles had his 2014 season ended prematurely by a collar bone injury, but he’s not that far removed from his impressive 2013 run. Bradford, of course, has battled injuries over the past two seasons, including an ACL injury that forced him to miss the entire 2014 season. In his last full season, the former first-overall pick threw for 3,702 yards, 21 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. During that 2012 campaign, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked Bradford 21st among 38 quarterback candidates. Soon after, it was rumored that the Eagles were dangling Bradford in an effort trade up to the No. 2 pick to grab Oregon star Marcus Mariota. Ultimately, the Titans stood pat and the Eagles are now set to roll with either Sanchez or Bradford as their No. 1 QB. The Eagles are reportedly considering an extension with Bradford as well.

Draft picks:

  • 1-20: Nelson Agholor, WR (USC): Signed
  • 2-47: Eric Rowe, CB (Utah): Signed
  • 3-84: Jordan Hicks, ILB (Texas): Signed
  • 6-191: JaCorey Shepherd, CB (Kansas): Signed
  • 6-196: Randall Evans, CB (Kansas State): Signed
  • 7-237: Brian Mihalik, DE (Boston College): Signed

Nelson Agholor was a fast riser in the draft and he found his way up to No. 20 where the Eagles were selecting. The 6’0″ USC product has drawn comparisons to Jeremy Maclin for his sharp route running and also has pretty advanced hands. Agholor could prove to be a major weapon for whomever is under center for the Eagles in 2015 and also figures to make an impact in the return game.

Other:

  • Announced new front office roles for Chip Kelly and Howie Roseman, with Kelly taking over the club’s personnel department.
  • Promoted Ed Marynowitz to vice president of player personnel.
  • Exercised 2016 fifth-year option for DE Fletcher Cox ($7.799MM).
  • Rescinded RFA tender to RB Chris Polk.
  • Signed nine players to reserve/futures contracts.
  • Signed 16 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.

In January it was announced that Howie Roseman would be elevated to the role of executive vice president of football operations with Kelly now officially overseeing the player personnel department. Of course, the term “elevated” isn’t 100% accurate with Kelly having final say over everything regarding the roster. Ed Marynowitz was promoted from assistant director of player personnel to the team’s vice president of player personnel. For what it’s worth, he says that everyone’s roles are well defined.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Sam Bradford, QB: $12,985,000
  2. Jason Peters, LT: $9,050,000
  3. Byron Maxwell, CB: $8,700,000
  4. Connor Barwin, OLB: $7,000,000
  5. Brandon Graham, OLB: $6,000,000
  6. Malcolm Jenkins, S: $5,666,666
  7. Lane Johnson, RT: $5,225,974
  8. DeMarco Murray, RB: $5,000,000
  9. Brent Celek, TE: $4,800,000
  10. Riley Cooper, WR: $4,800,000

Crazy? Genius? Both? We can’t wait to find out.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

2 comments Offseason In Review PFR Originals Philadelphia Eagles

Community Tailgate: 7/6/2015

By | at July 6, 2015 3:59 pm

We’re still more than two months away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this summer, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

The topic of the day in the NFL world has been the fallout from Jason Pierre-Paul‘s fireworks accident over the weekend, which resulted in a hand injury for the star defensive end. The severity of that injury isn’t yet known, though various reports have revealed a few details — JPP reportedly burned the flesh off his hand and fingertips, and has been in the hospital for two days. However, his injuries aren’t believed to be career-threatening, and he isn’t expected to lose any fingers.

The Giants know enough about the incident to have pulled a $60MM contract offer for Pierre-Paul off the table, according to a report today from NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport. While the injury clearly plays a significant part in that decision, the poor judgment Pierre-Paul showed in putting himself in such a position probably factored into the move as well.

With a long-term offer for JPP not currently on the table, it looks increasingly likely that he’ll have to accept his one-year franchise tender and play out the 2015 season on that deal. The 26-year-old may also forfeit some pay if he has to spend time on the non-football injury list. Earlier this afternoon, I laid out a few potential scenarios for Pierre-Paul and the Giants, with the July 15 deadline for a multiyear contract looming large.

Since we don’t have many definitive details on Pierre-Paul’s injury yet, it’s hard to definitively say one way or the other how the Giants should handle the situation. Still, let’s say what we’ve heard so far is accurate, and the injury isn’t career-threatening, but could force the pass rusher to miss some time this season.

How should the Giants handle Pierre-Paul’s contract situation? Do you think this is an opportunity for the team to buy low and pursue a multiyear extension at a reduced rate? Should they simply play it safe and let JPP sign his one-year tender? Or would you remove his $14.813MM franchise tag altogether, trying to re-sign him at a lesser rate while risking the possibility of losing him to another team?

Weigh in below with your thoughts and opinions in the comment section. We’re looking forward to hearing what you have to say!

3 comments Community Tailgate New York Giants PFR Originals

Scenarios For Jason Pierre-Paul, Giants

By | at July 6, 2015 12:16 pm

The Giants have yet to release an official statement on the injuries sustained by Jason Pierre-Paul over the weekend due to a fireworks mishap. Reports so far have indicated that Pierre-Paul’s career shouldn’t be in jeopardy, and he may still play this season. However, as Jordan Raanan of NJ.com writes, the hand injury is serious enough that JPP still remains in the hospital about 36 hours or so after the accident occurred.

Raanan notes in his piece that Pierre-Paul’s long-term health trumps the football aspect of the injury at this point, and the Giants are concentrating on their player’s health and mental well-being for now. Still, considering Pierre-Paul isn’t technically under contract at this point, the injury has the potential to have a significant impact on his upcoming deal, so the situation is worth a closer look. If the injury is determined not to be as serious as initially feared, it shouldn’t hugely reduce JPP’s potential earnings, but he certainly has less leverage today than he did last week.

Here’s where the contract situation currently stands: Pierre-Paul received the franchise tag from the Giants earlier this offseason, meaning the team automatically offered him a one-year, $14.813MM contract for 2015. Because the standout defensive end didn’t immediately sign that tender, he remains a free agent, and could sign an offer sheet with another team at any time. However, any interested club would have to part with two first-round picks to land him, so that possibility is minuscule. The most likely scenarios for Pierre-Paul, prior to the injury, were either playing out the 2015 season on his one-year franchise tag or reaching a multiyear contract agreement with the Giants by the July 15 deadline.

Before word of Pierre-Paul’s injury broke, I expected the two sides to ramp up negotiations in the next week or so before ultimately agreeing to terms on a long-term extension by next Wednesday. That could still happen, but the hand injury clouds the situation a little. Here are the various scenarios that we could see play out in the coming weeks:

  1. Pierre-Paul, Giants reach long-term contract agreement: As noted above, this remains a possible outcome. Perhaps JPP would have to accept a minor discount, but if his recovery timetable ends up being measured in weeks or months rather than years, his overall value shouldn’t be too diminished.
  2. Pierre-Paul signs franchise tender: As long as the franchise tender remains on the table, Pierre-Paul can sign it and assure himself a $14MM+ salary for 2015, perhaps electing to revisit discussions on a longer-team deal after the season. Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk observes that, because of the injury, a clause in the CBA would allow the Giants to terminate JPP’s contract and avoid paying him any of that $14MM+ salary, but that would mean making him an unrestricted free agent, which the Giants likely won’t be eager to do.
  3. Giants withdraw franchise tender: If the Giants were to withdraw JPP’s franchise tender before he signed it, they could attempt to negotiate a new deal with him at a lesser rate. But withdrawing that franchise tag would also allow the 26-year-old the freedom to sign anywhere, so the Giants would be taking a huge risk. There are still plenty of teams with a healthy amount of cap room who would be very interested in pursuing this sort of player if he were an unrestricted free agent.
  4. Giants place Pierre-Paul on non-football injury list: Another scenario detailed by Florio, this looks to me like the most probable outcome, whether or not the veteran pass rusher and the team reach a multiyear agreement. Because JPP sustained the injury while he was away from the Giants, the club would have the option to place him on the non-football injury list and not pay him until he recovers. Pierre-Paul and the NFLPA could try to fight the move, but their case would require medical evidence to show that the former first-rounder is healthy, and based on what we’ve heard over the last couple days, it doesn’t sound like that hand will fully heal anytime soon.

We’ll have to wait for official word on Pierre-Paul’s injury to know exactly how important a factor it will be in contract negotiations between the Giants and their franchise-tagged player. But for now, it’s hard to imagine the team committing a huge chunk of guaranteed money to JPP.

1 comment New York Giants PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: Miami Dolphins

By | at July 6, 2015 8:57 am

After being a staple in the playoffs for roughly the entire history of the franchise, the Dolphins have only one playoff appearance since 2001, including six consecutive seasons without a winning record. It finally feels like the Dolphins have the quarterback in place to make a run at the division – and it doesn’t hurt that their biggest competition might be missing theirs – and their offseason centered around winning the Ndamukong Suh sweepstakes. However, Miami did much more than just that to put itself in a position to make a run at the playoffs, and the team might not be finished just yet.

Notable signings:

The numbers speak for themselves: Six years, $114.375MM. $59.955MM guaranteed. LeBron James makes it hard to say that Suh is hand down the biggest free agent South Beach ever drew, and Giancarlo Stanton’s contract overshadows Suh’s, but the Dolphins made a very large move for a very large man. No matter which direction this team goes, Suh will get the lion’s share of the credit (or blame), at least on the defensive side of the ball. His detractors will note that he isn’t as good as J.J. Watt, but you could argue Suh is the best player to hit free agency in the prime of his career since Reggie White, and he got paid like it.

It’s a big gamble to devote that many precious cap dollars to one player, but Suh is a true difference maker on the defensive line. He’s a stout run defender, and he’s among the best in the league at rushing the passer from the interior — he has the talent to live up to that massive contract.

Suh wasn’t the only defensive tackle the Dolphins added. They also signed his former Lions’ teammate C.J. Mosley, who was thought by many to be a lock to return to Detroit in an increased role. Instead, Mosley should provide cheap insurance for the Dolphins in case Suh misses time, and he should also fit nicely in a rotation that can’t afford to be that deep with all the resources devoted to Suh. The team also spent a second-round pick on one of the top college nose tackles, but we’ll get to that later.

The Dolphins traded Mike Wallace and replaced him with veteran Greg Jennings. Charles Clay signed an offer sheet with the Bills and the Dolphins declined to match the offer, instead signing Jordan Cameron as a replacement. The club also took a flier on LaMichael James to complement Lamar Miller, in the role Knowshon Moreno was supposed to fill before going down with injury last year.

In addition to the holes they made sure to fill, the Dolphins also added J.D. Walton and Jason Fox along the offensive line. Both players are likely to provide depth, each bringing six years of NFL experience that could prove extremely helpful considering the recent struggles along the offensive line. Louis Delmas, Brice McCain, and Zackary Bowman should all provide similar depth along a thin defensive backfield, and if all goes right they should see the field plenty with a chance to have an impact.

One more notable name Miami brought in was Josh Freeman, who may have a chance to stick on the roster if he has a strong preseason and flashes the upside that made him a first-round pick to begin with. However, keeping Matt Moore in the fold was much more important, as he’s considered to be a high-end backup capable of steering the ship in the event of an unfortunate injury to Ryan Tannehill.

Notable losses:

A number of the Dolphins’ offseason losses were either expected or at least left the team indifferent, such as Philip Wheeler, Daniel Thomas, Shelley Smith, Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson, Nate Garner, Cortland Finnegan, and Daryn Colledge, all of whom had struggled. Miami appeared happy to move on from them, and that’s a good thing, considering an 8-8 team that spent so much in free agency usually would have to part with much better players to stay under the cap.

Still, the team was forced to let go of a number of players who were still making an impact, and chief among them is Jared Odrick. Odrick was still playing at a high level, and was rewarded with a big contract of his own with the Jaguars. Suh is definitely an upgrade, but Odrick had played well in Miami for years and the decision not to re-sign him is the cost of doing business. Randy Starks is another defensive tackle who has been a staple of the Dolphins defense, but the team decided to go younger at the position behind Suh.

After that, Jimmy Wilson, R.J. Stanford, Jason Trusnik, and Jonathan Freeny are all usable players, but since they’re more or less replacement level, the Dolphins could afford to let them leave during the offseason in order to throw their resources elsewhere on the roster.

Extensions and restructures:

Tannehill is the spiritual brother to Suh on the Dolphins, in that the team’s success will be directly linked to how he plays as far as the public is concerned. He could complete 65% of his passes with 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, but if the Dolphins don’t make the postseason, Tannehill won’t get the respect as one of the rising stars in the league. Considering the blowback when he signed his deal, coming off a season where he completed 66% of his passes for 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, Dolphins’ fans are ready for a postseason berth.

Luckily for Tannehill, he should have the best offensive line in front of him he has had yet in his career, starting with the newly-extended Mike Pouncey, who signed a deal to keep him with the team through 2020. Pouncey will look to lead an offensive line that returns last year’s big free agent signing Branden Albert and last year’s first-round pick Ja’Wuan James, along with a pair of young guards, to keep Tannehill upright and run the ball effectively again.

Trades:

  • Acquired WR Kenny Stills from the Saints in exchange for LB Dannell Ellerbe and a 2015 third-round pick.
  • Acquired a 2015 fifth-round pick from the Vikings in exchange for WR Mike Wallace.
  • Acquired a 2015 second-round pick (No. 52; DT Jordan Phillips), a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 145; CB Bobby McCain), and a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 156; CB Tony Lippett) from the Eagles in exchange for a 2015 second-round pick (No. 47; DB Eric Rowe) and a 2015 sixth-round pick (No. 191; CB JaCorey Shepherd).

Trading Wallace isn’t going to hurt too much, as he was scapegoated for many of Tannehill’s struggles with the deep ball, and the team hedged against it by trading for Kenny Stills, who was one of the best in the league at hauling in deep passes during his time with Drew Brees. Getting rid of Ellerbe in the deal justifies the high price paid for Stills, and is the closest thing seen in the NFL to the NBA version of using draft picks to sweeten a salary dump.

Moving down five spots in the draft doesn’t seem like as big a move, but the two cornerbacks chosen with the fifth-round picks could go a long way to rebuilding a defensive backfield the team could have trouble filling out with all the money devoted to the defensive line and pass rushers.

Draft picks:

  • 1-14: DeVante Parker, WR (Louisville): Signed
  • 2-52: Jordan Phillips, DT (Oklahoma): Signed
  • 4-114: Jamil Douglas, G (Arizona State): Signed
  • 5-145: Bobby McCain, CB (Memphis): Signed
  • 5-149: Jay Ajayi, RB (Boise State): Signed
  • 5-150: Ced Thompson, S (Minnesota): Signed
  • 5-156: Tony Lippett, CB (Michigan State): Signed

DeVante Parker should quickly rise in the pecking order on offense, and if Stills comes through as a major deep threat but not much more, it shouldn’t be long before Parker emerges as the No. 1 wideout in Miami. Jennings may play that role early on, but he’s in the twilight of his career, and while he adds veteran value, it seems awfully optimistic to expect an 80-catch season at this stage of his career.

The more interesting selection came in round two, where the 6’5″, 329-pound Jordan Phillips comes in with an NFL-ready body who could plug in at nose tackle from day one and eat up blocks on the inside. He gives the Dolphins some flexibility with where to play Suh along the defensive line, allowing him to bump out in certain situations.

Jamil Douglas, a fourth-round pick, could be the starter at guard as a rookie, slotting in between Pro Bowlers Pouncey and Albert to ease his transition into the NFL. After that, the team was smart to take three depth pieces for the defensive backfield and an NFL-ready running back in Jay Ajayi, who was lauded for his abilities to run, catch, and block, even if his knees were red flag enough to drop him to the fifth round with the stigma that he may not survive until his second contract.

Other:

  • Hired Mike Tannenbaum as executive VP of football operations.
  • Learned DE Dion Jordan would be suspended for the entire 2015 season.
  • Claimed OL Donald Hawkins off waivers from the Cowboys.
  • Signed six players to reserve/futures contracts
  • Signed 16 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.

The most disappointing part of the offseason was learning that Dion Jordan would be suspended for the entire year. The Dolphins may have already given up on Jordan before last season, as they’ve reportedly tried to trade him multiple times and have either come up with no suitors or asked for too high a return. The former third overall pick missed six games due to a suspension last year, and continues to disappoint the organization and fan base that invested so much in him.

The biggest indictment on Jordan is that with Chip Kelly making personnel decisions in Philadelphia, even he wouldn’t pony up a little something for the former Oregon Duck, when it seems like the Dolphins would have given him away at a bargain rate. Even off the field, Jordan continues to be a headache for the team, and it’s not as if he was producing at a high level the few times he was playing.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Branden Albert, LT: $10,725,000
  2. Cameron Wake, DE: $10,450,000
  3. Brent Grimes, CB: $10,000,000
  4. Reshad Jones, S: $7,712,942
  5. Mike Pouncey, C: $7,000,000
  6. Mike Wallace, WR: $6,600,000 (dead money)
  7. Dannell Ellerbe, LB: $6,400,000 (dead money)
  8. Ndamukong Suh, DT: $6,100,000
  9. Ryan Tannehill, QB: $4,873,364
  10. Dion Jordan, DE/OLB: $4,682,276

The running theme of the offseason ran through the two big contracts, one for Suh and one for Tannehill. With the commitments made to those two this offseason, the Dolphins have made them the faces of the defense and offense, respectively.

Around the two stars, the team’s plan has for the most part been throwing a lot of things at the wall and hoping they stick. They should be commended for recognizing weaknesses at offensive line and defensive back, and throwing a lot of assets at those spots. However, the dangers of giving big contracts to two players can be seen in that strategy. While the team added and added to both position groups, they did so mostly with middling free agents and low-round draft picks. Hoping that one or two of these players turns into something more than a replacement-level player is a gamble, especially if the coaching staff struggles with player development.

Miami added some high-upside players early in the draft, but even those guys will grab minimal headlines early in their career. Come December, the Dolphins will either be in the playoff hunt or they won’t, and whether they are or not will likely fall on the shoulders of their two big stars.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

1 comment Miami Dolphins Offseason In Review PFR Originals

PFR Originals: 6/29/15 – 7/5/15

By | at July 5, 2015 6:19 pm

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • Pro Football Rumors’ Offseason in Review series kicked off this week starting with a pair of AFC East teams. Zach Links opened the series by digging through an exciting New York Jets’ offseason and Connor Byrne went on a deep dive with the Buffalo Bills, who made a few big moves of their own, chief among them in hiring former Jets head coach Rex Ryan.
  • The ongoing saga of Michael Bennett in Seattle peaked the interest of our own Dallas Robinson, who examined the back-and-forth nature of the situation. Bennett took less money a year ago when he signed a four-year contract to remain with the team, and curiously has been vocal about being underpaid throughout this offseason. Dallas comes to the same conclusion I did: Bennett is definitely underpaid but at this point, but it’s too late to do anything about it and it’s probably his own fault anyway.
  • After Andrew Quarless was arrested, it seemed like a countdown clock started ticking until when he was either suspended by the league or released outright by the Packers. I took a look at some possible replacements for the team at tight end, and there isn’t much out there, so I’m forecasting a much bigger role for second-year player Richard Rodgers.
  • Luke continued looking into the salary-cap numbers division-by-division, this time highlighting the largest 2015 cap numbers for the AFC North, NFC North, and NFC South.
  • Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson isn’t the only member of the team in line for a big payday, and Sam Robinson looks into the possibility of an extension for linebacker Bobby Wagner. Rory Parks examined the extension candidacy of another top-flight defender in Washington’s Ryan Kerrigan, predicting he could get a contract that will pay him more than what Pernell McPhee received in free agency this past offseason.
  • A number of veteran players will be released between now and the start of the NFL season, and Dallas continues his look at those candidates for release, this time focusing on the NFC East.
  • In the wake of the slew of suspensions handed down in the news dump before July 4th for substance-abuse violations, Luke posed the question of which suspension would be most impactful on the field in our latest PFR Poll. Antonio Gates just edged out Sheldon Richardson and Rolando McClain to take the ignominious title.
  • Our Community Tailgate series continued on with new topics this week and providing a forum for discussion. The subjects covered by Luke and Zach:
    • McClain’s chances at rebounding from his most recent suspension (link)
    • Brett Favre‘s hypothetical comeback (link)
    • Predicting the AFC East champion (link)
    • Eli Manning‘s next contract (link)
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Potential Replacements For Andrew Quarless

By | at July 5, 2015 2:04 pm

With starting tight end Andrew Quarless dealing with the aftermath of being arrested early on July 4th, the Packers could be missing a key member of their offense in 2015, either due to suspension or release.

Quarless was arrested after firing a weapon in public while in Miami yesterday morning. The team released a statement on their official website, noting they will not make any decisions until they have more information.

“We are aware of the matter involving Andrew Quarless and are in the process of gathering more information. We will withhold further comment.”

More information seems more likely to hurt Quarless than help him, and many fans and pundits expect his release. He is in the second year of a two-year deal that he signed last offseason, and is due a base salary of $1.3MM plus roster and workout bonuses.

Although he was a starter, he caught only 29 passes for 323 yards last season, and has career totals of only 85 catches and 909 yards in his four years with the team. Still, whether Aaron Rodgers needs big production from tight end or not, losing a starter is rarely a good thing, and he will need to be replaced.

If they choose to look to free agency, Jermaine Gresham remains available as one of the best overall players on the market. He should be easy to sign on a short-term deal, and has experience both as a pass catcher and blocker as a former first-round pick in Cincinnati.

The 6’6″ Gresham has had consistent production since coming out of Oklahoma has a big-time playmaker at the position. His numbers came in between 45 and 65 catches each of his professional seasons, catching between four and six touchdowns each year. While those numbers were underwhelming considering his hype coming out of college, he was a reliable option for Andy Dalton, and could thrive in the Green Bay offense.

Zach Miller, formerly of the Seahawks, could also be a relatively cheap option, but after Gresham the market is weak for tight ends. Miller is entering his age-30 season, and hasn’t produced much of anything since leaving Oakland for Seattle in 2011. He missed most of the 2014 season with an ankle injury, but is not the player he once was even if he gets healthy.

Besides Gresham and maybe Miller, the list of available players at the position (courtesy of Spotrac.com) is full of uninspiring choices who either have no history of producing on the field or a long gap since the last time they were effective players.

Signing or trading for an impact player at the position is out of character for the Packers and general manager Ted Thompson anyway. The most likely scenario is an upgrade in role for second-year tight end Richard Rodgers, who caught 20 passes for the team in 2014. They also drafted Kennard Backman in the sixth round, who could see some action in a backup role.

Either way, smart money says it will not be Quarless catching passes in Green Bay this coming season.

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Extension Candidate: Bobby Wagner

By | at July 4, 2015 8:06 pm

Compiling arguably the best collection of drafts throughout the decade, the Seahawks have been proactive in keeping their cornerstone players together. This offseason elevates the two-time reigning NFC champions’ investment stakes to another level, obviously, with Russell Wilson‘s contract now the centerpiece of the NFL financial dialogue.

But Seattle’s lurking decision rests on defense, with Bobby Wagner entering his walk year. The Seahawks have an incredibly rare contingent of All-Pros, Pro Bowlers and other upper-echelon contributors that weren’t selected in the first round, so they in a sense face expedited timelines on players like Wilson and Wagner, just as they did on Richard Sherman last summer without the luxury of the fifth-year option safety net. In Wilson’s case, the debate on whether he’s enabled the Seahawks or vice versa wages on, but Wagner’s been a similar boon for the Hawks’ defense and will command a contract that could eclipse all inside linebackers if he enters free agency next March.

Wagner, though, does not play a position that possesses the value that Sherman’s or, obviously, Wilson’s do, so his second contract will be a more reasonable accord than what Wilson’s reportedly seeking. But with a resume that now includes first-team All-Pro, for a 2014 regular season that featured Wagner playing only 11 games, the 2012 second-round pick will receive a massive contract from either the Seahawks or a suitor desperate to pry a top-flight Seattle defender away from the figurative factory in the pacific northwest.Feb 1, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Seattle Seahawks middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (54) celebrates after his interception against the New England Patriots during the third quarter in Super Bowl XLIX at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

In April, it was reported Wagner could command a deal north of $8MM per year, but that figure rose to around $10MM by June. The latter report from CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora indicates the Seahawks and Wagner are closer to an agreement than Wilson is with the team he piloted to two Super Bowls, so the odds of Wagner surpassing Brian Cushing, Lawrence Timmons (league-high $9.6MM per-year average for inside linebackers) and NaVorro Bowman to become the highest-paid inside backer have increased. Wagner’s pact would also be a breakthrough for 4-3 middle linebackers, with the bulk of the highest-paid second-level insiders coming from 3-4 defenses. James Laurinaitis‘ $8.3MM-per-year average with the Rams represents the only 4-3 backer currently in the top 5 among contract values, with Daryl Washington‘s potentially tenuous deal rounding out the quintet.

Entering his age-25 season, Wagner will undoubtedly ascend into this tax bracket soon, be it on an extension, the accepting of another team’s offer, or playing on the franchise tag — which treats all linebacking spots the same and paid $13.2MM to second-level cogs in 2015 — in an unlikely scenario.

The Seahawks’ defense molded back into an elite force once Wagner recovered from his turf toe injury last season, and the team slapped together a menacing eight-game win streak as a result en route to another NFC title. Wagner still cleared the 100-tackle plateau, helped elevate Seattle back to a top-2 perch in terms of DVOA for the third straight season and, in a strange show of respect considering Aaron Rodgers and J.J. Watt had seemingly more dominant slates, earned an MVP vote from Tony Dungy. Pro Football Focus has also bestowed two top-5 positional finishes (subscription required) on Wagner, for his 2012 (second) and ’14 work (fifth), respectively.

Barring a season-altering injury, Wagner’s value appears pretty clear. But the Seahawks keeping their latest defensive stalwart comes down to a few factors.

One being that while Seattle does a masterful job at keeping its own talent after extending Thomas, Sherman and Kam Chancellor in a span of 13 months, it may not be able to house that many highly paid players. Joining that trio as top-10 players in terms of overall contract value are Marshawn Lynch, who is not a homegrown performer but definitely a home-enhanced one, Jimmy Graham, left tackle Russell Okung and outside backer K.J. Wright, who quietly signed a $6.7MM-per-year extension last December.

That quartet is attached to contracts worth the second-, first-, 10th- and second-most money in terms of average per year at their respective positions, according to OverTheCap. And defensive ends Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett, PFF’s second-best 4-3 end last year and a player who is already displeased with the deal he signed in March 2014, are banking $7MM per year and in the top 15 highest-paid performers at their position.

Seattle’s currently able to get away with these allotments to its top athletes since it’s paying mostly rookie-deal money to its offensive front and after freeing itself from the Percy Harvin contract, doesn’t have a wideout making more than $4.5MM per year. Of course, the main reason the Seahawks have kept this core together and were able to take on the No. 1 tight end contract is because they don’t have an upper-echelon quarterback salary anchoring their payroll.

Might Wagner be the one who suffers from Wilson being paid his due? Seattle has the 10th-most salary cap room in 2016 at $38.01MM, but that figure includes the following starters with expired deals: Wilson, Wagner, Okung, Brandon Mebane, Tony McDaniel, Jermaine Kearse, Bruce Irvin, J.R. Sweezy and Alvin Bailey. Wilson and Wagner are the highest priorities among this group, but their deals could flood the aforementioned free agent fund and induce potential cuts to other starters, especially if the franchise tag is involved.

Beyond Wilson’s potentially historic demands overshadowing Wagner’s extension talks, do the Seahawks believe Wagner is irreplaceable, or can they get by without him as they believe they can after allowing Byron Maxwell to hit the market? Unlike at cornerback where the team churns out able bodies, the Seahawks don’t really have much depth behind Wagner, with only UDFA Brock Coyle present. This could strengthen Wagner’s bargaining position, but it’s not like a top-tier middle backer is a must-have for contenders, as nickel has become the new base. The Broncos managed to make the Super Bowl with former XFL cog Paris Lenon starting there, while the Patriots won the title mostly without Jerod Mayo‘s services.

Wagner is a three-down linebacker who does well in coverage, and those aren’t the easiest to replace, however. Of the 11 spots on the first-team All-Pro squads during the 2010s, former first-round talents occupied seven of them, and of PFF’s annual top-5 backers during the decade, 14 of those slots went to ex-first-rounders. So while teams shy away from spending prime draft capital on inside backers, affecting the position’s value, the franchises who have done this have largely reaped rewards in recent years.

The Seahawks have shown a sublime track record at drafting stars, and a future featuring a potential $20MM-per-year salary to Wilson and $10MM/AAV to Wagner will potentially force cuts to key players in the next couple of years and further place a premium on extracting supreme value from first-contract performers. Because if the Seahawks can somehow make that work without suffering mightily at their lesser-compensated positions, they’ve figured out a way to establish long-term success without earning a heartless reputation the Patriots have regarding paying their own talent.

Judging by the reports coming out of Seattle, there is enough to indicate the Seahawks are serious in their efforts to keep Wagner at their defensive forefront. That will affect the ancillary talents that also are up for new contracts, but with the Seahawks’ draft-and-develop track record, paying Wilson and Wagner while starting over at certain spots may be a worthy gamble.

Photo courtesy USA Today Sports Images

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