Community Tailgate: 6/17/15
We’re still a few months away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. This week, we’ve launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every day, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.
Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.
Today, we’ll be discussing Greg Hardy‘s suspension. The defensive end is currently slated to sit out the first ten games of the season and any day now we should learn about the resolution to his appeal. After all, arbitrator Harold Henderson heard Hardy’s case all the way back on May 28th and decisions rarely take a full month to come down.
You might remember Henderson as the same arbitrator that heard Adrian Peterson‘s appeal in late 2014. At the time, the player’s union was less than thrilled about his appointment.
“A long-time NFL Executive and current legal consultant cannot, by definition, be a neutral arbitrator,” the union said in a statement.
While a court eventually wound up siding with No. 28, Henderson initially held up Peterson’s indefinite suspension in December. The choice of arbitrator alone is enough to make one wonder if Hardy has much of a chance at reducing his suspension. The circumstances of Hardy’s incident, as outlined by the NFL’s letter to him, make the odds seem even more slim.
“First, he used physical force against her which caused her to land in a bathtub,” Commissioner Goodell wrote. “Second, he used physical force against her which caused her to land on a futon that was covered with at least four semi-automatic rifles. Third, he used physical force against her by placing his hands around Ms. Holder’s neck and applying enough pressure to leave visible marks. And fourth, he used physical force to shove Ms. Holder against a wall in his apartment’s entry hallway. The net effect of these acts was that [Nicole Holder] was severely traumatized and sustained a range of injuries, including bruises and scratches on her neck, shoulders, upper chest, back, arms and feet,”
The Cowboys reportedly anticipated a four-game suspension and, at maximum, a six-game suspension for their new star defensive end. The NFLPA, meanwhile, was reportedly getting ready to battle it out with the league if Hardy was suspended for anything more than two games. Hardy’s transgressions were undeniably ugly, but after sitting out all but one game in 2014, the union figured that Hardy had more or less served his time.
Ultimately, how do you think Henderson will see it? Will Hardy have his 10-game suspension reduced? Head to the comments section below to place your bets and voice your thoughts and opinions. We look forward to what you have to say.
Largest 2015 Cap Hits By Position: Special Teams
Within the last couple weeks, I’ve taken a look at the top 10 cap hits by position around the NFL, focusing first on offense before shifting last week to defense. This week, we’ll turn our attention to special teams, a list that will be considerably shorter than the first two, but should still be addressed for the sake of completion.
While most teams use the majority of their cap room on offensive and defensive players, it’s interesting to consider whether successful clubs devote a decent chunk of space to special teams as well, or whether they’re able to get by with inexpensive contributors at those positions, freeing up more cap room for offense and defense.
Considering the top two cap charges for kickers in 2015 belong to the Patriots, the defending Super Bowl champs, and the Jaguars, who have won 14 games over the last four seasons, there may be no clear correlation between team success and cap room devoted to special teams. But our lists below will be accompanied by various observations related to the top 10 cap numbers for each position. Let’s dive in…
Kickers:
- Stephen Gostkowski (Patriots): $4.59MM
- Josh Scobee (Jaguars): $4.388MM
- Phil Dawson (49ers): $4.134MM
- Shaun Suisham (Steelers): $3.665MM
- Sebastian Janikowski (Raiders): $3.61MM
- Robbie Gould (Bears): $3.6MM
- Mason Crosby (Packers): $3.55MM
- Steven Hauschka (Seahawks): $3.325MM
- Graham Gano (Panthers): $3.1MM
- Adam Vinatieri (Colts): $2.75MM
- I was surprised when the Patriots used their franchise tag on Gostkowski, since no other kicker is making more than $3.775MM annually. However, his cap charge for 2015 isn’t an outlier, with Scobee and Dawson also over $4MM as they near the end of their deals. If you think of Gostkowski’s 2015 season as the final year of his previous contract with the team, his cap hit and salary don’t look outrageous. Besides, who better to spend on at the position than Gostkowski, who made 35 of 37 field goals in 2014.
- As is the case at most positions, this list of cap numbers provides a mix of standout contributors and players who look slightly out of place — only three of these players (Gostkowski, Suisham, and Vinatieri) ranked among the NFL’s top 10 most accurate field-goal kickers last season.
- No kicker is locked up for longer than Dan Bailey, who is under the Cowboys‘ control through the 2020 season. Bailey’s cap hit in 2015 is just $2.5MM, but he’ll likely make this list in future seasons, as his figures continue to increase — he’ll peak at $4.2MM in 2018.
- Half of these players will be eligible for unrestricted free agency after the 2015 season. Only Suisham, Janikowski, Gould, Hauschka, and Gano are under contract beyond this year.
Punters:
- Mike Scifres (Chargers): $4.348MM
- Dustin Colquitt (Chiefs): $3.8MM
- Britton Colquitt (Broncos): $3.75MM
- Thomas Morstead (Saints): $3.4MM
- Matt Bosher (Falcons): $3.355MM
- Michael Koenen (Buccaneers): $3.25MM
- Pat McAfee (Colts): $3.2MM
- Sam Koch (Ravens): $3.1MM
- Steve Weatherford (Giants): $3.075MM
- Kevin Huber (Bengals): $2.77MM
- A handful of these punters are under contract for several more years, but their contracts are structured very differently. Morstead will see his cap hits rise above $4MM for each of the next three seasons (2016-2018), while Bosher’s and McAfee’s cap charges over the same period will dip below $3MM.
- Koenen may not be on this list by the time the regular season begins. His contract includes no prorated bonus money, meaning the Buccaneers could clear his entire cap charge from their books, and the club has brought in Spencer Lanning from the Browns to compete for the job.
- Although I suggested earlier that we may not be able to draw any conclusions from these lists, it’s interesting to consider the teams represented here. Outside of the Bucs – and the Giants, who have had a couple down years after an extended run of success – nearly all these clubs were 2014 playoff teams or just missed the cut.
Information from Over the Cap was used in the creation of this post.
Community Tailgate: Where Will Evan Mathis Sign?
We’re still a few months away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Today, we’re launching a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every day, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.
Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.
Today’s discussion will center on the NFL’s hottest free agent, guard Evan Mathis. Mathis, of course, was embroiled in an ugly battle with the Eagles over his contract situation. For much of the offseason, it seemed as though Mathis was simply looking to renegotiate the terms of his deal, which called for him to earn $13.5MM between 2015 and 2016. Last week, however, a new wrinkle in the saga emerged: Mathis claimed that former GM Howie Roseman offered to bump up his salary in 2014. When Mathis told the Eagles in 2015 that he was ready to take them up on that pitch, he was informed that the coupon had effectively expired since Roseman was no longer in the GM role. Ultimately, despite talk of trade interest for the last few months, the Eagles decided it was in their best interest to release Mathis outright.
The move was surprising since Mathis is considered one of the league’s best interior linemen. In 2014, despite playing just 608 offensive snaps, the former third-round pick ranked as the league’s best left guard, performing particularly well as a run blocker, according to Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required). PFF had previously graded Mathis as the NFL’s No. 1 guard in 2011, 2012, and 2013. While his age and salary ostensibly scared teams off from giving up value for him, he can be expected to find a number of interested suitors now that he won’t require the forfeiture of a draft pick.
The Bills, Vikings, Dolphins, Rams, and Patriots were among the teams said to have varying levels of trade interest in him. The Colts, Giants, and Cardinals apparently won’t make a play for Mathis, but agent Drew Rosenhaus said over the weekend that he heard from at least six teams with interest in his client. The Jets could use some help on the interior of their offensive line and Mathis probably wouldn’t have to relocate if he signs with them.
We want to hear from you, the PFR reader: Where do you think Evan Mathis will sign? Head to the comments section below to place your bets and voice your thoughts and opinions. We look forward to what you have to say.
PFR Originals: 6/7/15 – 6/14/15
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past seven days:
- After looking at the offensive side of the ball last week, Luke Adams examined the largest 2015 cap hits among defensive players. Veterans such as Darrelle Revis, Patrick Peterson, and Mario Williams will all carry costly figures, but Panthers end Charles Johnson tops them all with a $20.02MM hit.
- Luke also asked which quarterback among Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, and Eli Manning will sign an extension first. Currently, Wilson holds a majority of the votes with just over 50%.
- In another poll, Zach Links wondered if Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson is worth $100MM, as his teammate Sheldon Richardson concluded. PFR readers overwhelmingly disagree with Richardson’s assessment, as more then 80% of voters don’t think Wilkerson should surpass $100MM.
- Check out our Extension Candidate series, where we’ve profiled contract year players such as Sam Bradford, Marshal Yanda, Kelechi Osemele, Blair Walsh, and Andrew Whitworth.
- Finally, we’d greatly appreciate it if you’d take our quick survey on how to improve your Pro Football Rumors experience.
Largest 2015 Cap Hits By Position: Defense
A week ago, we took a look at the top 10 cap hits for each offensive position, and those lists looked a little different than you might expect. While we tend to view a contract’s value by its per-year salary, its overall money, or its guarantees, the deals that rank atop those categories aren’t necessarily the ones that will consume the most cap space in 2015.
This week, we’re shifting our focus to the defensive side of the ball, where there are a handful of surprises and interesting names as well. Below, you’ll find the top 10 cap hits for 2015 by defensive position, along with a few of my observations for each position.
Let’s dive in….
4-3 defensive ends:
- Charles Johnson (Panthers): $20.02MM
- Mario Williams (Bills): $19.4MM
- Robert Quinn (Rams): $16.744MM
- Jason Pierre-Paul (Giants): $14.813MM
- Jared Allen (Bears): $12.5MM
- Chris Long (Rams): $12.5MM
- Cameron Wake (Dolphins): $10.45MM
- Everson Griffen (Vikings): $8.2MM
- Cliff Avril (Seahawks): $8MM
- Michael Bennett (Seahawks): $8MM
- Williams and Allen will both be asked to play some 3-4 outside linebacker under new defensive coordinators in 2015, but I’ve included them in this group because they’ve traditionally played 4-3 defensive end, and their deals were likely negotiated with that market in mind.
- The Rams had the option of restructuring Quinn’s contract earlier this offseason, but not doing so should pay off in future seasons — after counting for nearly $17MM this year against the cap this year, Quinn will count for between $10.75MM and $12.95MM from 2016 to 2019.
- Speaking of those Rams, they and their division-rival Seahawks have nearly half the players on this list, a reflection of how much those clubs prioritize their outside pass rush.
- Pierre-Paul’s figure is a result of the franchise tag, so it could be reduced if he and the Giants reach a long-term contract agreement.
- The 11th name on this list would have been Michael Johnson, who has a cap number of just $2.6MM for the Bengals this year, but is counting for $7MM in dead money against the Buccaneers‘ cap.
3-4 defensive ends:
- Calais Campbell (Cardinals): $14.75MM
- J.J. Watt (Texans): $13.969MM
- Corey Liuget (Chargers): $7.977MM
- Arthur Jones (Colts): $7.1MM
- Desmond Bryant (Browns): $7MM
- Cameron Heyward (Steelers): $6.969MM
- Muhammad Wilkerson (Jets): $6.969MM
- Kyle Williams (Bills): $6.95MM
- Jurrell Casey (Titans): $6.72MM
- Jason Hatcher (Washington): $5.203MM
- Watt’s cap hit was set to be nearly $22MM before the Texans restructured his contract. The move added an extra $2MM to his cap numbers for every year between 2016 and 2019.
- Cameron Jordan‘s newly-signed extension with the Saints makes him one of the league’s highest-paid 3-4 defensive ends, but his cap hit for 2015 is a modest $4.169MM before jumping to eight digits for the next four years.
- Heyward and Wilkerson have identical fifth-year option salaries for the time being, but both players are extension candidates — the Steelers appear more likely to work something out with Heyward than the Jets are with Wilkerson.
Defensive tackles:
- Gerald McCoy (Buccaneers): $14.595MM
- Ndamukong Suh (Lions): $9.738MM (dead money)
- Geno Atkins (Bengals): $9MM
- Jared Odrick (Jaguars): $9MM
- Haloti Ngata (Lions): $8.5MM
- Marcell Dareus (Bills): $8.06MM
- Dan Williams (Raiders): $8MM
- Haloti Ngata (Ravens): $7.5MM (dead money)
- Ndamukong Suh (Dolphins): $6.1MM
- Brandon Mebane (Seahawks): $5.7MM
- Suh and Ngata dominate this list, showing up twice each, since their old teams are still carrying so much dead money for them. The duo would surpass McCoy and rank atop this list if you were to combine their total cap hits — Ngata is counting for a combined $16MM for the Ravens and Lions, while Suh is counting for a total of $15.838MM for Miami and Detroit.
- His contract is a strong candidate to be restructured next year, but at the moment, Suh is on track to have a staggering $28.6MM cap hit in 2016.
- Williams’ new deal with the Raiders has its big cap hits up front before dipping to $4.5MM in 2017 and $5MM in 2018.
- You could make a case that Odrick should be on one of the defensive end lists, but he played primarily at defensive tackle last year for the Dolphins, so I’ve included him here.
Outside linebackers:
- Justin Houston (Chiefs): $13.195MM
- Clay Matthews (Packers): $12.7MM
- Julius Peppers (Packers): $12MM
- Thomas Davis (Panthers): $9.9MM
- Von Miller (Broncos): $9.754MM
- DeMarcus Ware (Broncos): $8.667MM
- LaMarr Woodley (Steelers): $8.58MM (dead money)
- Paul Kruger (Browns): $8.2MM
- Robert Mathis (Colts): $7.471MM
- Elvis Dumervil (Ravens): $7.375MM
- As expected, nearly every outside linebacker on this list is a 3-4 player, since they’re typically the ones rushing the quarterback most often. Davis is the lone 4-3 OLB here, and he and the Panthers are trying to work out an extension that figures to reduce his cap charges for future seasons.
- Other extension candidates here include Houston and Miller, who are currently playing on the franchise tag and a fifth-year option, respectively.
- Getting after the quarterback is something good teams typically do well, so perhaps it’s not surprising to see perennial contenders Packers and Broncos spending big on outside pass rushers — both teams have two players in the top six here.
- Players who didn’t make the cut on this list include a pair of recipients of big offseason contracts, Jerry Hughes and Pernell McPhee, who will see their cap hits increase in subsequent seasons. Aldon Smith‘s one-year deal has a maximum value of $9.754MM, which would tie him with Miller, but his cap number is under $5MM, since the contract includes a handful of roster bonuses and incentives.
Inside linebackers:
- Lawrence Timmons (Steelers): $12.566MM
- Brian Cushing (Texans): $7.891MM
- NaVorro Bowman (49ers): $7.654MM
- David Harris (Jets): $7.5MM
- Rey Maualuga (Bengals): $7.138MM
- Paul Posluszny (Jaguars): $6.885MM
- Daryl Washington (Cardinals): $6.5MM
- Curtis Lofton (Raiders): $6.5MM
- Jerod Mayo (Patriots): $6.1MM
- Stephen Tulloch (Lions): $5.8MM
- Timmons is an effective player, but his 2015 cap number is nearly 60% more than the second-highest at his position, a sign that the Steelers may have overspent a little on him.
- While inside linebacker salaries are generally trending downward, the Jets and Raiders had plenty of cap space to use this offseason, and both teams used a chunk on a veteran ILB — Harris’ and Lofton’s cap numbers in future seasons won’t increase above their 2015 figures.
- It’s hard to imagine Mayo playing out his contract beyond this season, as it currently stands. His cap number is set to jump to $11MM+ in 2016.
Cornerbacks:
- Darrelle Revis (Jets): $16MM
- Patrick Peterson (Cardinals): $14.791MM
- Brandon Carr (Cowboys): $12.717MM
- Johnathan Joseph (Texans): $12.25MM
- Richard Sherman (Seahawks): $12.2MM
- Joe Haden (Browns): $11.7MM
- Vontae Davis (Colts): $11.25MM
- Brent Grimes (Dolphins): $10MM
- Leon Hall (Bengals): $9.6MM
- Lardarius Webb (Ravens): $9.25MM
- Not only does Revis have the largest cap hit for any cornerback this year — he’s also counting for $5MM in dead money against the Patriots‘ cap, after New England turned down his 2015 option.
- Byron Maxwell‘s new deal with the Eagles averages more than $10MM per year, but it missed a spot on this list due to an $8.7MM cap charge in year one. That number will increase to $11.7MM by 2017.
Safeties:
- Eric Weddle (Chargers): $10.1MM
- Eric Berry (Chiefs): $8.357MM
- Michael Griffin (Titans): $8.1MM
- T.J. Ward (Broncos): $7.75MM
- Reshad Jones (Dolphins): $7.713MM
- Earl Thomas (Seahawks): $7.4MM
- Nate Allen (Raiders): $7MM
- Donte Whitner (Browns): $6.75MM
- Tyvon Branch (Raiders): $6.671MM (dead money)
- Devin McCourty (Patriots): $6MM
- Expect to see Thomas and McCourty on this list for years to come. Their cap numbers both rise significantly in 2016 and beyond, and barring a sudden dropoff, they’re unlikely to be cut loose anytime soon.
- As they did with other free agent contracts this offseason, the Raiders frontloaded Allen’s contract, which has cap numbers between $5-6MM for the remaining three years. Similarly, Ward’s deal with the Broncos has an unusually large hit this season before dipping down below $6MM for its final two years — Denver could rework it if the team needs the room.
- While Branch counts for $6.671MM on the Raiders‘ books, his current cap charge for the team he actually plays for – the division-rival Chiefs – is just $1.288MM.
- Jairus Byrd didn’t quite make this list after restructuring his contract earlier this offseason, but he’ll be on here in future years unless he continues to rework his contract or is cut by the Saints. His cap numbers from 2016 to 2019 all exceed $10MM.
Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.
Poll: Does Muhammad Wilkerson Deserve $100MM?
This week, Sheldon Richardson has become Muhammad Wilkerson‘s spokesperson, for all intents and purposes. Wilkerson is trying not to air his dirty laundry with the Jets in the New York tabloids, but Richardson is more than happy to talk. Earlier today, he told reporters that his teammate and friend should be the league’s next $100MM man.
“He’s worth that penny,” Richardson said of Wilkerson. “And you know what penny I’m talking about. … We don’t just want J.J. Watt money. We want it all. We want [Ndamukong] Suh money. Hopefully everybody wants that type of bread in this league.”
The PR director of Team Wilkerson didn’t stop there, telling Jets beat reporters “If Gerald McCoy can get $100MM, I’m pretty sure my guy Mo Wilkerson can get $100MM.”
Of course, “Can” and “Should” are two different things. Can Wilkerson get $100MM from the Jets? Probably not, according to Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News, who noted that the team has leverage thanks to the presence of No. 6 overall pick Leonard Williams. The presence of Wilkerson’s buddy Richardson, another top defensive lineman, also damages his leverage. Barring something unforeseen, it may be a fruitless exercise to debate whether Wilkerson will get that $100MM deal from Gang Green this offseason. The better question might be whether he deserves $100MM.
Wilkerson’s credentials are undoubtedly impressive. The 25-year-old (26 in October) is widely regarded as the second best 3-4 defensive end in the league, after the historically dominant J.J. Watt. According to Pro Football Focus, Wilkerson graded out as the second-best at his position in 2012 and third-best in 2014 (subscription required). Watt finished first in each of the past three seasons.
Still, $100MM ain’t exactly chump change and that tier is really for players who are selected to the Pro Bowl year in and year out. In the case of Wilkerson, he has earned second team All-Pro selections in each of the past three years from either Pro Football Focus or the AP, but he has yet to get a first-team nod. Is Wilkerson elite? Absolutely. Is he $100MM elite? That’s the question we’re asking you. Vote below and give us your thoughts in the comments section.
25 NFL Draft Picks Remain Unsigned
With training camps still a few weeks away, it should just be a matter of time until all 256 of this year’s draft picks have signed rookie contracts with their respective teams. The 2015 draft concluded a little over five weeks ago, and so far, 231 of those draftees have signed their deals, leaving just 25 picks unsigned, less than 10% of 2015’s draft class.
Of those unsigned picks, most are first- or third-rounders. Salaries and bonus amounts for draft picks under the current CBA are fairly rigid, so only a few details in a contract can really be negotiated, including guarantees and offsets. The first and third round – particularly the end of the first round and the start of the third round – are two spots where those specifics are a little more negotiable than usual.
While 17 of the 25 unsigned picks are first- or third-rounders, the other eight are mostly Rams players, since St. Louis typically announces all of its draft signings at once. The one exception this year for the team was sixth-round wide receiver Bud Sasser, who wasn’t physically cleared, due to a heart condition — he signed his rookie contract and was subsequently waived from St. Louis’ roster. Besides the Rams, no team has more than two unsigned picks.
Here’s the full list of 2015 draftees who have yet to sign their rookie contracts:
First Round:
- Marcus Mariota, QB (Tennessee Titans)
- Vic Beasley, DE/OLB (Atlanta Falcons)
- Ereck Flowers, T (New York Giants)
- Todd Gurley, RB (St. Louis Rams)
- Cedric Ogbuehi, OL (Cincinnati Bengals)
- Byron Jones, CB (Dallas Cowboys)
- Laken Tomlinson, G (Detroit Lions)
- Damarious Randall, S (Green Bay Packers)
- Malcom Brown, DT (New England Patriots)
Second Round:
- Landon Collins, S (New York Giants)
- Mario Edwards, DL (Oakland Raiders)
- Rob Havenstein, T (St. Louis Rams)
- Ali Marpet, OL (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Third Round:
- D’Joun Smith, CB (Indianapolis Colts)
- Jeremiah Poutasi, OL (Tennessee Titans)
- A.J. Cann, OL (Jacksonville Jaguars)
- Clive Walford, TE (Oakland Raiders)
- Jamon Brown, T (St. Louis Rams)
- Duke Johnson, RB (Cleveland Browns)
- Sean Mannion, QB (St. Louis Rams)
- Henry Anderson, DE (Indianapolis Colts)
Fourth Round:
- Andrew Donnal, T (St. Louis Rams)
Sixth Round:
- Cody Wichmann, G (St. Louis Rams)
Seventh Round:
- Bryce Hager, LB (St. Louis Rams)
- Martin Ifedi, DE (St. Louis Rams)
2015 NFL Extension Candidate Series
The bulk of free agency is behind us, but many of 2015’s biggest contracts could still be on the way. There are a number of players who have one or two years left on their contracts whose teams will want to lock them up before they’re eligible for free agency, and many of them will sign extensions over the next few weeks and months. New deals for players like Ryan Tannehill, Cam Newton, and Cameron Jordan, have already helped kick off 2015’s prime contract extension period.
At Pro Football Rumors, we’ll look to cast a spotlight on several of the players who could re-up with their teams in the coming months, writing pieces that focus on many of the more notable extension candidates out there. These players won’t necessarily ink new deals before the regular season gets underway, or even before they hit free agency, but their clubs will probably want to at least discuss the idea, and we’ll examine what sort of contracts they might be in line for.
Our Extension Candidate series is already underway, and we’ll be adding many more installments to it in the near future. You can find this index at any time on the right-hand sidebar under “PFR Features” to follow the latest. Here’s the list so far:
- Sam Bradford, QB (Eagles)
- Marcell Dareus, DT (Bills): Extended
- Nick Foles, QB (Rams): Extended
- Cordy Glenn, T (Bills)
- Malik Jackson, DL (Broncos)
- Julio Jones, WR (Falcons): Extended
- Ryan Kerrigan, OLB (Washington): Extended
- Josh Norman, CB (Panthers)
- Muhammad Wilkerson, DL (Jets)
- Kelechi Osemele/Marshal Yanda, G (Ravens): Yanda extended
- Bobby Wagner, LB (Seahawks): Extended
- Blair Walsh, K (Vikings): Extended
- Andrew Whitworth, T (Bengals): Extended
PFR Originals: 5/31/15 – 6/7/15
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Luke Adams examined how Cam Newton‘s five-year, $103MM extension will affect negotiations between both Andrew Luck and the Colts and Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Given the latter two’s production, Luke writes that neither should have a problem topping Newton’s AAV, and could easily surpass Aaron Rodgers‘ $22MM per year.
- Luke looked at the top 2015 cap hits among offensive players, noting that one player — tight end Jimmy Graham — appears on a list twice, as he’ll account for $9MM of dead money on the Saints’ cap, while counting for another $8MM on the Seahawks’ books.
- I delved into the extension cases for the Ravens’ starting guards, Marshal Yanda and Kelechi Osemele, noting that while Yanda is probably more of a sure thing given his track record, Osemele could push for the larger contract due to his youth and the fact that he plays on the left side.
- With the date in question passing last week, Luke provided an updated explanation of post-June 1 cuts.
- Earlier today, Rory Parks asked about the fates of three veteran pass-rushers — Dwight Freeney, Osi Umenyiora, and John Abraham — all of who remain on the free agent market. The voting is tight, but readers narrowly believe that Freeney has the best chance to get another opportunity.
- Luke wondered whether Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas (slapped with the franchise tag) will ultimately sign a long-term deal with Denver. Nearly two-thirds (64.36%) of voters believe Thomas will not reach an extension with the club.
Extension Candidate(s): The Ravens’ Guards
Under new offensive coaches Gary Kubiak, Rick Dennison, and Juan Castillo, the Ravens offensive line of 2014 displayed perhaps the greatest improvement of any front five in the league from the season prior. After ranking as the NFL’s worst run-blocking unit and exactly average — No. 16 — in terms of pass-blocking in 2013 (according to Football Outsiders), Baltimore’s line graded as third-best in the pass game and No. 4 in the run game last season.
That level of success can be attributed to several factors, including Kubiak’s implementation of a zone-blocking scheme, the excellent play of center Jeremy Zuttah (acquired from the Buccaneers during the offseason), or the fact rookies John Urschel and James Hurst performed capably as fill-ins when injuries struck. But the foremost component that lead to Baltimore’s
front five turnaround was the preeminent play of its interior lineman — left guard Kelechi Osemele and right guard Marshal Yanda — each of whom enters the final season of his contract.
The 30-year-old Yanda is the elder statesman of the two, having been drafted in 2007 and already having negotiated one extension with the Ravens (a five-year, $32MM deal signed in 2011). He’s probably also the better player — his +43.8 Pro Football Focus grade (subscription required) placed him atop the guard rankings, was nearly double that of the next highest guard, and put him well above Osemele, whose +21.6 mark placed him sixth at the position.
While Yanda does have the edge in experience, that also means that Osemele hasn’t yet endured the wear and tear of many 1,000-snap seasons along the interior. Osemele, a former second-round draft pick, won’t even turn 26 years old until later this month, and has has only 37 NFL games (all starts) on his ledger. Yanda, meanwhile, has played in 115 contests, but his only major injury scare came during his second season in the league, when he suffered a season-ending knee injury.
Because of Yanda’s longer track record, we can be more sure that his success is no fluke. He’s never finished outside the top-25 at his position per PFF — including 2010, when he started 15 games at right tackle — and he’s ranked among the top three guards in three of the past four seasons. Osemele, obviously, was impressive last season, but had little to no success during his first two NFL seasons. He was below-average as a tackle in 2012, and wasn’t much better in seven games at guard in 2013. Injuries sapped much of Osemele’s ’13 campaign, so perhaps now that he’s settled at one position and injury-free, his true talent is able to shine. But it’s hard to argue that Yanda is more a sure thing at this point.
Though the Ravens would surely like to retain both players, reports have indicated that the club will probably only be able to re-sign one, and for now, it seems like Yanda is the favorite to land a long-term deal. General manager Ozzie Newsome mentioned Yanda by name in May, but also seemed to leave the door open for Osemele. “If we don’t get it done [with Yanda],” said Newsome, “we’ll move on to the next.” Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com reported the same last week, noting that Yanda would be the team’s primary target, with Osemele being a secondary option.
The fact that the Ravens would only retain one of their guards makes sense in that it fits in with NFL contractual trends. Most clubs seem averse to spending large chunks of cap space on two quality guards. Only four teams — the Falcons, Titans, Cardinals, and Packers — will employ two guards who have a 2015 cap hit in excess of $2.5MM. Tennessee and Arizona are only on that list because they spent first-round picks on guards, meaning only Atlanta and Green Bay will pay two veteran guards any sort of large sum.
Though it would be tough for any club to shell out long-term deals to both its starting guards, it could be especially difficult for Baltimore given the cap concerns it will face starting in 2016. Quarterback Joe Flacco‘s cap hit will jump to an astounding $28.55MM (second only to Ndamukong Suh‘s figure), while cornerback Jimmy Smith‘s extension will begin, increasing his cap figure to $9.6MM. The Ravens project to have just under $21.5MM in cap space available for 2016 (10th-least in the league), and while the club can make moves to create space — Flacco’s deal will likely be restructured, while Lardarius Webb and others could be released — financial room could be tight.
If they do hit the free agent market next March, both Yanda and Osemele will look to top the five-year, $40MM deal Mike Iupati signed with the Cardinals this offseason. Left guards, like Osemele and Iupati, earn more than their counterparts on the right, so Osemele will have an advantage in that regard. Osemele will be entering his age-27 campaign next year, while Iupati is already 28, and the former’s recent track record is superior to that of Iupati’s in his platform season. If Osemele maintains his production from 2014, there is no reason he shouldn’t match or exceed Iupati’s deal, especially given that he doesn’t intend to give Baltimore a hometown discount.
For his part, Yanda is already the highest-paid right guard, earning $6.4MM annually. Given his age and position, I think he’ll have a much more difficult time matching Iupati’s deal. Certainly, he is one the best (if not the best) at his position, but it’s hard to imagine a club spending ~$40MM on a lineman who will be entering his age-32 season in 2015. Hensley suggested in February that a four-year, $30MM pact would make sense for all parties involved, and while I agree on the length, I think Yanda could push for a higher AAV, perhaps asking for $8MM per, with $16-18M in guarantees.
Much of Yanda and Osemele’s value could be derived by maintaining their consistent play through this season. Will Osemele post another above-average campaign, cementing his status among the elite guards? Will Yanda stay healthy as he enters his thirties, and maintain his production as he ages? The answer to those questions will go a long way towards determining not only which guard scores a larger contract, but which stays in Baltimore long-term.
Photo courtesy of USA Sports Images.