The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
A little over a week ago, we took a look at some of the most notable offensive free agents still available, rounding up the latest reports and rumors on those players. In the eight days since, a handful of those free agents have found new homes, with the Jets signing Stevan Ridley, the Browns securing Rob Housler, and the Broncos agreeing to terms with James Casey.
This weekend, we’ll shift our attention to the defensive side of the ball. Noteworthy veterans like cornerback Charles Tillman (Panthers) and edge defender Anthony Spencer (Saints) have come off the board in recent days, but there are still plenty of free agents worth checking in on, with 2015 free agency entering its second month.
Here’s a breakdown of some of the most notable names remaining at the defensive positions, featuring the latest updates on those players:
Interior defensive lineman: Barry Cofield, Brett Keisel, Tommy Kelly, C.J. Mosley, Kevin Williams
Cofield and Keisel haven’t been the subject of any reports since being released by Washington and Pittsburgh respectively. It’s hard to imagine Keisel playing for any team except the Steelers if he continues his playing career, but he does have links to coaches in Arizona and Tennessee. Kelly played – and played well – for the Cardinals last season, but there’s been no indication yet that the club will re-sign him, and at age 34, he’s a potential candidate for retirement — the same can be said of Williams, who is also 34. Mosley would seem like a good fit in Detroit, after the Lions lost Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley, but the team may be reluctant to bring him back after last year’s suspension for marijuana possession.
Edge defenders: John Abraham, Red Bryant, Dwight Freeney, Osi Umenyiora
Bryant, who turns 31 next week, is easily the youngest player of this group, so it’s not surprising that none of them have found homes for 2015 yet. Abraham, who missed nearly the entire 2014 season with concussion issues, may not return, but I could see Freeney and Umenyiora being effective situational pass rushers in the right situation. Umenyiora informally visited the Jets, but it doesn’t appear that anything is brewing on that front. As for Freeney, he won’t be back with the Chargers, but the Falcons and Buccaneers have been mentioned as potential fits.
Linebackers: Lance Briggs, Joe Mays, Brandon Spikes, Philip Wheeler, Jacquian Williams
Mays will likely come off this list on Monday, as he’s expected to sign with the Jets. The 49ers are in the market for linebackers and have been linked to several of these guys, including Briggs, Spikes, and Wheeler, and I doubt signing Nick Bellore ends the team’s search for ILB help. The Bills would also like to bring back Spikes. Williams, who is unlikely to re-sign with the Giants, said early in free agency that he had received interest from five teams, including the Rams, but nothing has come to fruition over the last few weeks.
Cornerbacks: Tarell Brown, Carlos Rogers, Ike Taylor
With Tillman no longer in play, cornerback is one of the weakest positions in free agency. Brown and Rogers started 21 games between them last year, but did so for the Raiders, and it doesn’t reflect all that well on them that even Oakland doesn’t have interest in retaining them. Brown, at least, drew some interest from the Patriots last month. As for Taylor, he doesn’t seem to be seeking contract offers, and all signs are pointing to him moving on to the next stage of his career.
Safeties: Stevie Brown, Dawan Landry, LaRon Landry, Danieal Manning, Bernard Pollard, George Wilson
While the cornerback ranks thin out, there are at least a handful of interesting names still on the board at safety. One Landry (Dawan) recently paid a visit to Buffalo to meet with the Bills and former head coach Rex Ryan, while the other (LaRon) may not find a job anytime soon, with a 10-game suspension hanging over his head. After Pollard received his release from the Titans, he explained that he preferred to play for a contender, but he doesn’t appear to be generating a ton of interest. Wilson started 10 games for the Titans last year, but his name has surfaced so little this offseason that he doesn’t even have his own PFR rumors page. Brown and Manning also haven’t been the subject of many reports, though one Giants beat writer predicted last month that New York would re-sign Brown.
The NFL draft is now less than three weeks away, and Pro Football Rumors is dedicated to following all 32 NFL teams and their reported interest in prospects. The biggest names change teams during free agency, but fans know that when it comes to the long-term health of their favorite teams, the draft is the most important aspect of the offseason.
Still, the first round of the draft does feature a certain amount of star power, and a healthy portion of the players selected in the first round will already be household names for even the average fan. Further, fans are smart enough and dedicated enough to do their due diligence on players that are rumored to be targeted by their favorite team at the top of the draft.
In the first installment of Pro Football Rumors’ 2015 mock draft, I’ll go through the first round, giving my best predictions – and suggestions – for what NFL teams might do when they come to the podium. I also include some potential second-round options for the Bills and Seahawks, the two teams that don’t own a first-round pick.
The picks are based on team needs, local media reports, film study, historical preferences, and a couple of gut feelings. They reflect, to the best of my abilities, how I think the first round of the 2015 NFL draft might play out, excluding any trades. The Buccaneers will start us off, with a pick that seems to have been a foregone conclusion for quite some time….
Just because your favorite team traded away its first-round pick, that doesn’t mean you should be excluded from the mock draft fun. It’s not easy to project what will happen at Nos. 50 and 63 without guessing how picks 33 through 59 and then 51 through 62 will go first, but there will be some good options for the Bills and Seahawks in round two.
50. Buffalo Bills – T.J. Yeldon, RB, Alabama
Denzel Perryman would be a good fit Rex Ryan would love, but he probably won’t last until No. 50. If the Bills are ready to chase a new quarterback, Brett Hundley has a lot of upside, but the similarities between his inconsistencies and E.J. Manuel‘s would probably scare Buffalo fans. One of the guards could still be available in Cann, Tomlinson, or Jackson, and the Bills need help on the interior of their offensive line. However, it’s hard to say which one would be there at No. 50, if any. The team does need a young running back, and Abdullah could do a lot of things that C.J. Spiller was able to do in the open field and in the passing game, but Yeldon is the rough and tough runner that I imagine Ryan would fall in love with in his ground and pound offense. Fumbling issues might worry the Bills, but his powerful style make him an ideal fit.
63. Seattle Seahawks – Ali Marpet, OG, Hobart
The Seahawks have pressing needs at wide receiver and along the offensive line. Elsewhere, they are always adding depth to their defense as players like Byron Maxwell have found big deals elsewhere the past few offseasons. Getting a player like Philip Dorsett or Devin Smith would be great, but it’s hard to imagine either of them lasting that long. It’s more likely the Seahawks will trust that Jermaine Kearse, Ricardo Lockette, and Doug Baldwin will be able to handle themselves with Paul Richardson returning from injury and Jimmy Graham commanding most of the attention. If a tackle falls to the Seahawks, that would be ideal, but they should be able to find an interior lineman with this pick. Marpet, who has been rising up boards despite coming from little-known Hobard College, could be the exact sort of small-school surprise the Seahawks can develop into a starting guard. Still, if the right front-seven player is on the board, I imagine Seattle will look for an offensive lineman later in the draft.
Last March, coming off a five-year stretch with the Patriots, inside linebacker Brandon Spikes had to settle for a one-year deal with the division-rival Bills that netted him just $3.25MM. That contract, while likely below Spikes’ salary target, was signed within days of the start of the free agent period. This year, however, we’re nearly a month separated from the beginning of free ag
ency, and Spikes is still unsigned.
There are a myriad of reasons that could help explain why Spikes is still on the market, but chief among them is probably the devaluation of the inside linebacker position. Not only are ILBs not (for the most part) getting paid in free agency, but two-down run-stopping specialists, such as Spikes, are rapidly falling out of favor in today’s NFL.
The advanced metrics provided by Pro Football Focus (subscription required) actually paint a relatively positive picture of Spikes’ pass-coverage abilities, as he ranked fourth-best at his position in yards per coverage snap and coverage snaps per reception. Each of those statistics, however, are dependent on a player’s total coverage snaps, of which Spikes had few. The 27-year-old saw just 222 snaps in coverage, the 16th-fewest among qualifying inside linebackers. Small sample size is obviously an issue here, as the consensus among most observers is that Spikes isn’t cut out for three-down duty.
But for a club looking for a force against the run, there are certainly worse options than Spikes. Overall, he graded as PFF’s 13th-best inside linebacker in the league last season, and his total ranking was buoyed in large part by his run-stopping acumen, as he placed ninth in that department. Spikes’ 2014 run-defense numbers are no fluke, as he ranked No. 1 against the run in both 2012 and 2013.
Of course, Spikes’ on-the-field limitations and/or strengths might not be the only factors playing into his current availability. Clubs also take into account soft factors, and Spikes has a history of (relatively minor) off-the-field incidents. He’s been called a “headhunter” by other players (and has been fined heavily for certain hits), posted offensive material on social media, and been lambasted by former teammates. Perhaps most seriously, Spikes was suspended for four games in 2010 for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. On their own, none of the above episodes are overly consequential, but taken together, they paint Spikes as a player who could be more of a distraction than he’s worth.
But yet, as Steve Palazzolo noted on a recent PFF Podcast, in a league where 31-year-old David Harris is worth $21.5MM over three years, it’s possible that Spikes is being undervalued. Yes, two-down linebackers are increasingly less important, but as Palazzolo added, a team could sign Spikes, draft a coverage linebacker, and replicate the production of a Harris-type linebacker for half the cost.
One potential path for Spikes could be returning to Buffalo, which still had interest in re-signing its free agent linebacker as recently as March 27. Back in February, however, Bills general manager Doug Whaley said that Spikes would only return as a two-down linebacker, adding that if Spikes wanted a larger role he would have to look elsewhere. Of course, at this point, an early-down role looks like the only route for Spikes, regardless of team, but overall, Buffalo doesn’t seem overly invested in retaining Spikes.
Other clubs have expressed their interest in Spikes, including the 49ers (reeling from the loss of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland) and the Vikings. Minnesota, though, proceeded to sign fellow ILB Casey Matthews, which reportedly signaled the end of the team’s interest in Spikes. The Dolphins were also mentioned as a potential suitor, but it sounds like Koa Misi will man the middle in Miami.
So now that the dust has settled on free agency, where could Spikes fit? I’d think the Browns could make a play for him, as he’d act as a good complement to Craig Robertson, who is a solid coverage linebacker. Elsewhere, the Titans, Cardinals, Packers, Chiefs and Texans all currently list at least one inexperienced player atop their inside linebacker depth charts, so Spikes could add something of a veteran presence to each of those 3-4 schemes. Among clubs who play a 4-3 front, the Falcons could look for an upgrade over the smallish Paul Worrilow, and Spikes (at 6’2″, 255 pounds) could be an improvement.
Spikes will probably have to settle for another one-year deal, and because he’s still unsigned into April, he might have to take even less than he received in 2014. A.J. Hawk, by any measure a less-talented linebacker, will earn a $1.625MM AAV with the Bengals, a figure that should act as a floor for Spikes. Nate Irving, a good comparison for Spikes, will garner a shade less than $2.5MM per year per his deal with the Colts, so I’d guess that Spikes will earn something in that range. A team willing to play to Spikes’ strengths, and perhaps pair him with a coverage-centric linebacker, could end up finding a bargain.
Teams across the NFL have until May 3 to officially pick up their 2016 options on players who are entering the final year of their rookie contracts. These fifth-year options can only be exercised on first-round picks, and the salaries are determined by where players were drafted and what position they play. Joel Corry of CBSSports.com has passed along the official salary figures for all 2016 fifth-year options, adding his thoughts on where each 2012 first-rounder stands.
If a player has his option exercised, his rookie contract will be extended by one year and he’ll be eligible for free agency after the 2016 season. If a player’s option is declined, he’ll be eligible for unrestricted free agency after the 2015 season. Of course, if a 2012 first-rounder is no longer on his rookie contract, there will be no option to exercise or decline. We explained the intricacies of the fifth-year option in a PFR Glossary post last year, so you can read up on the specific details there.
These 2016 option salaries are guaranteed for injury only up until the first day of the 2016 league year, at which point they become fully guaranteed. As such, many teams figure to exercise the options for now, even if they’re not 100% sure they’ll keep the player — there isn’t a ton of risk in picking up the option and maintaining as much roster flexibility as possible. Teams and players can also continue to negotiate long-term contracts from this point on.
With next month’s deadline looming, we’ll use the space below to track all the option decisions from around the league based on various reports and official announcements. This post can be found anytime on the right-hand sidebar in the “PFR Features” section. Here are this season’s fifth-year option decisions so far:
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
It has been 24 days since the 2015 free agent period officially got underway, and most of this year’s big names have come off the board within the last few weeks, if not before free agency formally opened. The remaining players available likely won’t command significant salaries or inspire massive bidding wars, but there are still players on the market capable of helping teams in 2015, including a number of noteworthy veterans.
Here’s a breakdown of some of the most notable names remaining at the offensive positions, featuring the latest updates on those players:
Quarterback: Matt Flynn, Tarvaris Jackson, Michael Vick
The Packers made it a priority to re-sign one of Aaron Rodgers‘ backups (Scott Tolzien), but don’t appear to have interest in bringing back Flynn as well. Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll, on the other hand, very much wants to lock up his veteran backup, indicating multiple times – including yesterday – that he hopes Seattle can re-sign Jackson. As for Vick, he hasn’t found his way onto the pages of PFR at all in the last few weeks, suggesting there’s little interest in his services.
Running back: Ahmad Bradshaw, Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, Stevan Ridley, Pierre Thomas
Of this group, Ridley appears to be the most likely to land a new deal quickly. The former Pats back is making the AFC East tour, having visited the Dolphins and Jets this week, and will probably make a decision soon, assuming he has offers on the table. Thomas has reportedly received interest from more than one team, most recently drawing some attention from Washington. However, veterans Bradshaw, Jackson, and Johnson have barely been mentioned at all since we heard that Johnson was shot last month.
Wide receiver: Michael Crabtree, Greg Jennings, Denarius Moore, Hakeem Nicks, Reggie Wayne, Wes Welker
Crabtree is perhaps the most intriguing name still on the board. He appears to have misjudged his market, and is now waiting for the right opportunity to arise, with a visit to Oakland on his schedule. Jennings tweeted last week that he was nearing the end of the free agent process, but perhaps that was just a setup for his April Fool’s gag, in which he pretended to announce his new team — there hasn’t been any word on him since, though he has been linked to the Panthers, Jaguars, and Dolphins. Welker doesn’t seem to be generating any interest from teams, and looks like a candidate for retirement, but that’s not the case for Wayne, who says he has received inquiries from multiple teams. Nicks recently visited the 49ers, while Moore paid a visit to the Bengals.
Tight end: James Casey, Jermaine Gresham, Rob Housler
Casey hit the open market early after being cut by the Eagles, and seemed to be a hot commodity at that point, but that early buzz hasn’t resulted in a deal — we haven’t heard anything on him since February. Gresham would likely be under contract with a team by now if not for an offseason surgery on his back. He figures to find a deal at some point, perhaps from the Raiders, who expressed early interest. Meanwhile, Housler has been linked to the Bengals, Ravens, Browns, and Falcons, but remains unsigned.
Tackle: Joe Barksdale, Byron Bell, Anthony Collins, Ryan Harris, Jake Long
Since they were released, Bell, Collins, and Long haven’t been the subject of many rumors, though we know the Panthers won’t re-sign Bell and the Rams haven’t ruled out bringing back Long. Things have also been quiet on the Harris front, with the last update coming on the first day of free agency, when we learned that the Chiefs were open to a reunion. Barksdale is the top option among this group, and I’d expect him to sign relatively soon. As our Dallas Robinson noted in his look at Barksdale’s free agent stock, the tackle’s asking price has come down since free agency began. The Titans and Rams are in the mix.
Interior offensive line: Justin Blalock, Dan Connolly, Brian De La Puente, Roberto Garza, Stefen Wisniewski
Blalock has drawn interest from the Lions, Rams, and Titans since being released by Atlanta, and took a visit to Detroit, but no deal appears to be imminent. De La Puente and Garza are a pair of veteran centers who can still be productive, but it’s not clear yet what teams might be interested — to be fair, Garza was only released yesterday, so it’s no surprise that a market hasn’t developed yet. Connolly paid a visit to the Bucs yesterday, and has reportedly received interest from the Seahawks, Bears, and Dolphins in addition to his longtime team, the Patriots. Wisniewski, who was on our top 50 free agents list, has seen his market develop slowly after he underwent shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum, but he did visit the Patriots and Jaguars this week after meeting with the Seahawks and Bucs earlier in free agency.
As we head into April, there are just four remaining unsigned free agents that were listed among Pro Football Rumors’ Top 50 FAs. Our 29th overall free agent, receiver Michael Crabtree, had a down year in 2014, and PFR’s Rory Parks look at w
hy he remains on the open market. Linebacker Rolando McClain, our No. 35 FA, has already retired twice during his young career, and is facing a fine after failing a third drug test, as documented by PFR’s Luke Adams. And our 39th-ranked free agent, center Stefen Wisniewski, is recovering from offseason shoulder injury, which could explain his lack of a market.
But perhaps the most puzzling member of the unsigned free agents club is offensive tackle Joe Barksdale, who ranked 36th on our Top 50 list. The 27-year-old Barksdale has spent the past three seasons with the Rams, and has started 29 games over the past two years. Without a strong crop of right tackles available in free agency, Barksdale seemingly should have been in line for a multi-year pact that paid him in the neighborhood of $6MM annually, comparable to the deals signed by Andre Smith and Anthony Collins in recent years.
The few free agent right tackles who did hit the market were handsomely rewarded, making it even more confusing that Barksdale hasn’t been able to find a home. The top RT available, Bryan Bulaga, re-signed with the Packers for almost $34MM, and while he’ll average just $6.75MM per year, it’s assumed that he took less money to stay in Green Bay. Jermey Parnell, largely unproven after starting just seven games over three seasons for the Cowboys, secured a five-year, $32.5MM deal from the Jaguars, while Doug Free will earn a $5MM AAV after re-signing with Dallas.
A glance at Pro Football Focus’ (subscription required) offensive tackle grades could offer some explanation as to why Barskdale remains available — while Bulaga, Parnell, and Free all ranked within the top 21 tackles, Barksdale placed just 48th. His run-blocking grade (arguably the more important mark for a right tackle) was impressive, however, as he ranked as the league’s 11th-best T in the run game. Still, based on PFF’s ratings, Barksdale might not be in the same class as those top three tackles, so if he’s asking for $5-6MM per year, clubs could be looking elsewhere.
Indeed, Barksdale hasn’t drawn much known interest from around the league, as he’s only been linked to the Rams and the Titans. Tennessee’s interest seems to be lukewarm, as reports indicated that the club would “consider” Barksdale after losing Michael Roos and Michael Oher earlier this year. Based on reports, it appears that a reunion between Barskdale and St. Louis is the most likely scenario — the Rams initially thought that the tackle was overestimating his market, and now that that seems to have been the case, head Jeff Fisher confirmed the two sides were talking.
Even after a dreadful season, Oher was able to garner a $3.5MM AAV from the Panthers, and I’d be very surprised if Barksdale has to settle for less than that. Something in the $4-4.5MM range (at the level of Zach Strief and Breno Giacomini) would make sense for both Barksdale and the Rams. For its part, St. Louis can use all the help it can get along the offensive line, where Greg Robinson and Rodger Saffold are the only returning starters. With only about $2.6MM needed to sign its draft class, the Rams have approximately $6.4MM in effective cap space, so they should easily be able to fit a Barksdale-level contract on their books.
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Less than a year ago, on April 22, 2014, linebacker Rolando McClain retired from the NFL. After being reinstated by the Ravens and working out for the team, McClain had such a poor showing at that workout that he decided to give up his comeback attempt and end his NFL career.
“I’m done,” McClain said at the time in a text message to Seth Wickersham of ESPN.com. “If football made me complete I would play. But whenever I think of it my heart pulls me away [for] whatever reason.”
About two and a half months later, the Cowboys unexpectedly swung a deal for McClain, sending a late-round draft pick to Baltimore to acquire the former eighth overall pick. Apparently, the veteran linebacker, who has been plagued by off-field troubles since entering the NFL, wasn’t quite as retired as he had suggested back in April. Still, it seemed unlikely that he’d contribute much for the Cowboys after having not appeared in a regular season game since 2012, and having announced his retirement twice in the interim.
As such, McClain’s performance in 2014 was one of the most surprising storylines of the year. In 13 games for Dallas, McClain racked up 87 tackles and a sack to go along with two interceptions. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked McClain eighth out of 60 qualified inside linebackers, and he excelled in every aspect of the game — PFF’s grades placed him eighth as a pass rusher, seventh as a cover man, and 11th as a run defender, among inside linebackers.
Based on that impressive performance, and his pedigree as a former top-10 draft pick, I ranked McClain as the 35th-best free agent available this offseason. However, it’s becoming increasingly clear that teams around the league aren’t necessarily on board with that assessment. Of our top 50 free agents, only four remain unsigned, and only one (Michael Crabtree) ranked higher on our list than McClain.
That wariness is certainly justified. After all, less than 12 months ago, McClain was talking about his heart pulling away from football, which could very well make any team reluctant to offer him a multiyear contract. Additionally, the former Raider failed a third drug test earlier this year — the league’s new substance abuse policy simply calls for a fine for a third failed test, but a fourth violation of the policy would result in an automatic four-game suspension. Potential suitors for McClain may try to alleviate the risk of a possible suspension by include significant per-game roster bonuses in their contract offers, like the Cowboys did with Greg Hardy.
Those off-field concerns surrounding McClain may limit his market, or result in short-term offers, which could help to explain why he remains available. From McClain’s perspective, some long-term security would be preferable, but if he signs a one-year deal and stays healthy, productive, and out of trouble in 2015, it could increase teams’ willingness to commit to him on a longer-term contract a year from now.
As far as potential fits go, Dallas was clearly a good one for McClain, and it certainly wouldn’t hurt the team to bring him back for 2015. Linebackers Justin Durant and Bruce Carter, who were regular contributors in 2014, have signed elsewhere this month, replaced by incoming free agents Jasper Brinkley and Andrew Gachkar. With the linebacking corps undergoing an overhaul this offseason, re-signing McClain to anchor the unit in the middle would at least provide some stability and continuity.
If McClain doesn’t return to Dallas, teams like the Saints, Dolphins, Vikings are among the clubs who run a 4-3 scheme and could use some help at the middle linebacker position. Of course, New Orleans may not be an ideal match for McClain, given his history with former Raiders head coach Dennis Allen, who is now a defensive assistant for the Saints. Free agent players often end up reconnecting with former coaches on new teams, but in the case of McClain and Allen, the relationship in Oakland was somewhat strained.
As far as other former coaches go, McClain could explore the idea of rejoining Tom Cable in Seattle, or Hue Jackson in Cincinnati, though neither of those teams look like the fit that Dallas, Miami, or Minnesota would be.
Ultimately, McClain may be forced to settle for the sort of short-term, prove-it contract that notable free agents like Nick Fairley and Terrance Knighton signed. An impressive 2014 season in Dallas helped to partially rebuild McClain’s value, but it doesn’t appear that any team is ready to spend big on him, particularly since he plays a position where huge free agent deals are somewhat rare. A one-year agreement heavy on incentives and per-game roster bonuses wouldn’t be a surprise.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.