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PFR Originals: 3/1/15 – 3/8/15

March 8th, 2015 at 7:27pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Offseason Outlook: Green Bay Packers

March 7th, 2015 at 11:12pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Aaron Rodgers, QB: $18,250,000
  2. Clay Matthews, OLB: $12,700,000
  3. Julius Peppers, OLB: $12,000,000
  4. Sam Shields, CB: $9,062,500
  5. Josh Sitton, G: $7,000,000
  6. T.J. Lang, G: $5,800,000
  7. Morgan Burnett, S: $5,131,250
  8. Jordy Nelson, WR: $4,600,000
  9. Mike Neal, DL: $4,250,000
  10. Mason Crosby, K: $3,550,000

*Randall Cobb‘s new contract will likely place him in the Packers’ top 10, but specifics of the deal aren’t yet known.

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 30 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

For most teams in most years, finishing with a 12-4 record and winning the NFC North for the fourth consecutive season would be considered a resounding success. But in Green Bay, the final snap of the 2014 season is all that posterity will remember, as the Packers coughed up a 12-point fourth quarter lead to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game before losing in overtime. One of the main culprits in that loss — tight end Brandon Bostick, who mishandled an onside kick recovery — has already been waived, but that surely wasn’t enough to appease disgruntled Packers fans.

The Packers have already been active this offeason — earlier tonight, the club agreed to a four-year, $40MM contract with pending free agent receiver Randall Cobb, keeping PFR’s No. 3 free agent from hitting the open market. The versatile 24-year-old was Green Bay’s top free agent, but the team has other need areas to upgrade. Free agency is anathema to general manager Ted Thompson (although he did sign big-ticket item Julius Peppers last offseason), so while the Packers likely won’t make many outside additions, they will look to retain their own FAs, and perhaps explore a few long-term extensions.

Key Free Agents

Now that Cobb has been taken care of, the Packers can focus on Bryan Bulaga, the club’s other key free agent. Bulaga may not have the name value of Cobb, but along with Denver’s Orlando Franklin, he represents the cream of the crop amBryan Bulaga (Vertical)ong free agent tackles, a FA position group that has already been thinned by King Dunlap and Derek Newton re-signing with their respective clubs. Bulaga, who will turn 26 later this month, graded as the league’s 16th-best tackle among 84 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), with most of his value coming from his exceptional pass-blocking.

Green Bay wants to keep its right tackle, and even with Cobb’s new deal in place, the Packers should still have the cap room available to get something done. But there will definitely be other suitors, and I can’t shake the feeling that another interested team will ink Bulaga with the intention of transitioning him back to left tackle, the position he played in college. With next to no free agent talent available on the left side, could a team like the Panthers sign Bulaga and throw him on Cam Newton‘s blindside? It’s possible, and given that Bulaga is likely to match or exceed the five-year, $35MM deal PFR’s Rory Parks projected for him last month, the Packers will have to compete to keep him.

While Bulaga will generate most of the headlines, the Packers have other key players headed for free agency, and two reside in the defensive backfield. Tramon Williams is the elder of two, and the soon-to-be 32-year-old has already drawn interest from the Seahawks as they plan for life after Byron Maxwell. Green Bay is said to have offered Williams, who’s spent his entire career with the Packers, a two-year deal worth $8MM — an unserious price which makes it appear as though the club has no intention of retaining him.

The Packers’ other free agent corner — the 25-year-old Davon House — doesn’t have the track record of Williams, but could ultimately command more dollars thanks to his youth. In House’s entry on PFR’s Top 50 list, our Luke Adams expressed some optimism that House, who saw only 411 snaps in 2014, could experience a breakout if given a larger role, and I share the feeling that House has some untapped potential. Green Bay will need to replace Williams in some fashion, and there’s no reason House shouldn’t be the one to fill his shoes.

Elsewhere on the defense, defensive lineman Letroy Guion and B.J. Raji are both scheduled to become free agents on Tuesday, and each faces a unique circumstance. Guion was arrested on drug charges in February, and though probation could reportedly be in the cards, his future is certainly cloudy. If his legal issues are resolved, however, the Packers should look to re-sign him (they expressed interest in doing so in January, before Guion’s arrest), as he was invaluable in ’14 while playing nose tackle.

Raji, meanwhile, faces similarly uncertain prospects, but for an entirely different reason — the former first-round pick missed the entire season after tearing his bicep during the preseason. Last month, we heard that Raji is expected to re-sign with Green Bay on a one-year deal, and he’ll presumably have to take a pay cut from his 2014 net of $4MM. The BC alum was shifting back to nose tackle during last year’s training camp, so we’ll have to see if his status affects that of Guion.

None of the remainder of the Packers’ impending free agents played more than 300 snaps last season, but the club will have to make a decision on a backup quarterback. It seems as though Matt Flynn is more comfortable in Green Bay than he was in either Seattle, Oakland, or Buffalo, and given his play at those other stops, he won’t garner any interest as a starter. Scott Tolzien, meanwhile, has now been in Green Bay for two seasons, and is two years younger, so the Packers could opt to promote him to the No. 2 role. It wouldn’t be a surprise if both are retained.

Possible Cap Casualties

The Packers have already been active in clearing out cap space, as they’ve released linebackers A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones, saving more than $7MM in the process. Green Bay does an excellent job of managing its cap, so unless it wants to cut Mason Crosby ($3.55MM cap hit) and find a new kicker, the club’s only realistic cap casualty could be linebacker Mike Neal.

According to PFF’s metrics, the 27-year-old Neal was the Packers’ worst defender in 2014, and was second-worst in 2013. His 2015 cap charge of $4.25MM is the ninth-highest on Green Bay’s roster, while the team would save $3MM by releasing him. There haven’t been any reports of Neal being on the chopping block, but this is a case where the production doesn’t match the compensation.

Positions Of Need

Through our Outlook series, we’ve now previewed all 32 teams’ offseasons — the following “positions of need” section might feature the least mentions of external pending free agents of any entry so far. Not that the Packers don’t have needs (every club does), but Green Bay simply doesn’t utilize free agency. As detailed by Bill Barnwell of Grantland in a July 2013 article, Thompson had signed just six veteran free agents since taking over as Packers GM in 2005 (adding Peppers and Guion last offseason brings the total to eight).

The one major area where Green Bay could look to upgrade is tight end, where the current depth chart consists of Andrew Quarless and Richard Rodgers — entering his second season, Rodgers could show some improvement, but the position lacks a true playmaker. That could change with the addition of Julius Thomas or Jordan Cameron, the top two TEs available, but neither seems like a Packers-type addition. More likely, Green Bay could take a look at players like Jermaine Gresham or Lance Kendricks, who figure to be more affordable options.

The front seven could also use a few new additions, especially at linebacker — though Hawk and Jones weren’t impact players, they certainly made contributions. The inside linebacker free agent class doesn’t have much to offer, so while GB could target Jasper Brinkley (Vikings) or Kelvin Sheppard (Dolphins), I’d expect them to wait until more notable players are cut during the summer, and snatch up a viable starter. The same goes for the defensive line, where Thompson won’t pay the price of bringing in an big-name addition.

Of course, the Packers could face two new needs — offensive line and corner — pending the outcomes of the Bulaga, Williams, and House negotiations. Each position could become an area of concern if other clubs poach Green Bay’s free agents, but I’d expect the Packers to target both positions through the draft (GB’s offensive line vacancies, in particular, are almost always filled by NCAA players). Along the O-line, Iowa’s Brandon Scherff figures to be off the board by the time Green Bay picks at No. 30, but Stanford’s Andrus Peat, Pitt’s T.J. Clemmings, or Texas A&M’s La’el Collins, each of whom would be an option at right tackle. At corner, the Packers could look at Marcus Peters (Washington) or Kevin Johnson (Wake Forest) in the first round, or perhaps target combine wonder Byron Jones in the second or third round.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

Green Bay has a fifth-year option on linebacker Nick Perry, the club’s first-round draft choice in 2012. The 24-year-old Perry hasn’t lived up to expectations, as he has yet to top 500 snaps in any one season and has posted just nine sacks in three seasons. The USC product isn’t an integral part of the Packers’ defense, and I doubt that they’ll want to exercise the option and pay Perry more than $7MM.

The Packers could look to sign a pair of other young players to extensions, however, starting with cornerback Casey Hayward. At first glance, Hayward’s future might appear to be tied to that of Williams and/or House — if GB re-signs either one, the need for Hayward might be lessened. However, Hayward is almost exclusively a slot corner, so his role shouldn’t be altered by Green Bay keeping one of its other corners. When healthy, Hayward is one of the most effective slot corners in the NFL — injury concerns have limited his production in recent years, however, so perhaps the Packers could use that missed time as leverage, and re-sign him to a below-market deal now.

Another defender, lineman Mike Daniels, could also be a candidate for a multi-year deal. The 25-year-old Daniels enjoyed his first season as a starter in 2014, finishing as the league’s eighth-best 3-4 defensive end per PFF. The role of a 3-4 DE often isn’t to generate pressure, but for what it’s worth, Daniels has accrued 12 sacks over the past two seasons. He plays a position that doesn’t get paid on the open market, but he could potentially target the five-year, $34MM deal Desmond Bryant signed with the Browns last March.

Overall Outlook

In re-signing Cobb, the Packers have already met this offseason’s most formidable challenge. They have the cap space to keep Bulaga, as well, and new contracts for either Williams or House (or both) would be the next items on the table. The free agent period usually isn’t exciting in Green Bay — but with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Packers will be considered division (and perhaps conference) favorites no matter how little they spend in March.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Browns

March 7th, 2015 at 8:05pm CST by Ben Levine

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Joe Haden, CB: $11,700,000
  2. Joe Thomas, T: $10,200,000
  3. Paul Kruger, OLB: $8,200,000
  4. Alex Mack, C: $8,000,000
  5. Desmond Bryant, DL: $7,000,000
  6. Donte Whitner, S: $6,750,000
  7. Karlos Dansby, LB: $5,500,000
  8. Phil Taylor, DT: $5,477,000
  9. Andrew Hawkins, WR: $5,000,000
  10. Barkevious Mingo, OLB: $4,458,273

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 12 overall pick
  • Acquired first-round pick (No. 19 overall) from Bills in deal for Sammy Watkins.
  • Acquired fourth-round pick from Bills in deal for Sammy Watkins.
  • Acquired sixth-round pick from Ravens in deal for Michael Campanaro.

Other:

Overview:

Things were looking good for Cleveland in late November, and it had nothing to do with LeBron James. The Browns were 7-4. Star wide receiver Josh Gordon was coming off of a 120-yard season debut. A talented (but very inconsistent) defensive line had allowed only a pair of 100-yard rushing games. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan was getting the most from journeyman quarterback Brian Hoyer, but the biggest hype of all surrounded a different quarterback, as the fan base was anticipating Johnny Manziel’s inevitable first start.

It’s hard to believe that was only three months ago. The Browns finished the season 0-5. Gordon failed yet another drug test, resulting in at least a one-year suspension. The defensive line finished the season as the worst run-stopping unit in the league. Both Shanahan and Hoyer are gone, and the rookie quarterback landed on the IR and in rehab.

Much has changed in that brief period of time, but the Browns will still retain much of the roster that marched out to a strong start in 2014. Despite a strong division, the team can expect to be competitive again in 2015, as long as they don’t do anything drastic this offseason.

Coaching Changes:

Perhaps the most embarrassing Browns story of the past 12 months didn’t come from any of their players. Instead, the humiliation came via one of their coaches.

Shanahan was rumored to be involved in nearly every coaching vacancy earlier this offseason, and he ultimately ended up with the Falcons in the same role. However, this only came after the 35-year-old was allowed out of his contract, and that only came after he presented a 32-point list on why he should be allowed to leave.

The organization eventually replaced Shanahan with another young mind, former Raiders quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo. Sure, the Raiders offense wasn’t very good last season, but the coach reportedly impressed the organization with his interview last year. That has to count for something, right?

Key Free Agents:

None of the Browns free agents are the class of their respective positions, but several of the players should attract plenty of suitors as alternatives to the big names.

Perhaps the biggest name in the group is tight end Jordan Cameron. Early reports indicated that the 26-year-old had little desire to re-sign with Cleveland, but coach Mike Pettine recently hinted that Cameron could return for the right price. Coming off a breakout 2013 season, when he Jordan Cameronestablished career highs in receptions (80), receiving yards (917) and touchdowns (seven), the former fourth-rounder disappointed in 2014. His lack of production could be partially attributed to multiple concussions, as well as subpar play from the Browns’ quarterbacks, but Cameron’s struggles went beyond the passing game. Pro Football Focus advanced metrics rated Cameron as one of the worst blockers at the position, and those same numbers indicate that blocking has been an issue throughout his brief career. As our own Luke Adams suggested, Cameron could be considered a cheaper alternative to Julius Thomas, which could (ironically) boost his price a bit. Even if Cameron does relent on his assertion that he’s done playing in Cleveland, the organization may be knocked out of the running as the bidding gets higher.

There was a time when Jabaal Sheard was counted on to be a contributing member of the Browns defense for years to come. That plan changed a bit in 2014, as the former second-rounder lost his starting gig, the first time he was sent to the second unit since entering the league in 2011. Despite the limited role, Sheard still produced via PFF’s standards, as the website ranked the 25-year-old in the top half of the league’s 3-4 outside linebackers. The versatile defender is still plenty young, and he averaged seven sacks a season over the first three years of his career. With a number of linebackers on the roster, Sheard may be on the outside looking in with Cleveland. However, it may be in the team’s best interest to at least explore the possibility of bringing him back.

Buster Skrine is in perhaps the most interesting situation of any of the Browns’ free agents. The presence of Pro Bowl cornerback Joe Haden, as well as last year’s first-rounder Justin Gilbert, would likely indicate that Skrine doesn’t have as much of an opportunity to contribute in Cleveland as he would elsewhere. The 25-year-old certainly disproved that notion last season, playing in the second-most snaps on the team, while also establishing a career-high in interceptions (four). PFF gave the former fifth-round pick a negative rating for his performance (interestingly enough, they rated him lower than the much-maligned Gilbert), so the cornerback’s playing time may have really been a matter of circumstances. It’d be surprising if the Browns gave up on Gilbert so quickly, and Skrine probably recognizes that fact. Unless he’s willing to accept a reduced role, Skrine could very well bolt this offseason.

Besides that trio, the majority of the Browns unrestricted free agents are among the second-tier (or lower) of available players. Veteran wideout Miles Austin had a relatively productive year, and the 30-year-old could continue to produce with the Browns if Gordon indeed misses the entire season (more on that later). Brian Hoyer won’t return following the signing of Josh McCown (more on that later, as well), but Tyler Thigpen could theoretically return, assuming both sides are interested in a reunion.

Safety Jim Leonhard and nose tackle Ahtyba Rubin both spent time in the starting lineup last season, but neither veteran topped 600 snaps. Leonhard played particularly well in his reduced role, but he indicated that 2014 would be his last year in the NFL. Meanwhile, Rubin may be hard pressed to regain his starting role following a dreadful 2014, when he missed three games and was ranked among the worst defensive tackles in the league by PFF. Sione Fua, a former third-round pick, has bounced around a lot in his brief career, and his lack of production for the Browns may indicate that he’ll be seeking his fourth employer since 2014.

The team’s group of restricted free agents certainly have potential, especially safety Tashaun Gipson. The Browns have indicated that they want to keep him, and they’re expected to slap him with a high tender. Linebacker Craig Robertson could also garner some interest, but there doesn’t seem to be much worry in losing the 27-year-old.

Possible Cap Casualties:

Phil Taylor would be the clear candidate to be cut, as his nearly $5.5MM cap hit ranks eighth on the team. The former first-rounder has looked dominant at times, particularly during his rookie season in 2011. However, the defensive tackle has struggled since, culminating in him being placed on the injured reserve after making only five appearances in 2014. PFF’s metrics have never been particularly fond of Taylor, and his overall rating this past season placed him among the five-worst Browns defenders. Still, the team’s defensive line struggled last season, and unless the organization decides to pursue an elite defensive lineman, Taylor could be needed for 2015.

Andrew Hawkins and his $5MM cap hit could also be cut loose, but that isn’t a ridiculous amount of money for that production (63 receptions, 824 yards, two touchdowns). Futhermore, Hawkins may be relied on even more based on Gordon’s status going forward.

Otherwise, many of the Browns highest-paid players have a solid grasp on their starting role, but the team could still clear up some small chunks of change by cutting some of their lesser-paid players. This could include tight ends Jim Dray and Gary Barnidge, and the duo would save the organization more than $1MM each by being let go. However, the tight ends may be in line for bigger roles next season based on where Cameron ends up.

Positions Of Need:

Despite the team’s lack of production on defense, many of the team’s biggest holes are on offense.

The organization addressed their need at quarterback early on in the offseason, agreeing to a deal with former Buccaneers signal-caller Josh McCown. No one will confuse the 35-year-old with a Pro Bowler, but given the options in free agency, the veteran should provide some competition for Manziel. Even if the 13-year veteran doesn’t see one snap, he is still expected to contribute as a mentor for the young, embattled quarterback.

The team will certainly be seeking a wideout, as Gordon is set to be suspended for the entirety of the 2015 season. Hawkins and Travis Benjamin are essentially the only wideouts currently on the roster that have any real experience, and if the Browns are hoping to see something from Manziel this season, they’d have to provide him with at least a couple more weapons. Earlier today, Luke Adams suggested that Cleveland could be a landing spot for Ravens receiver Torrey Smith.

Based on where Cameron ends up, the team could be seeking a new tight end. Luke mentioned that Julius Thomas could potentially make sense with the Browns, and the Broncos threat could essentially be the Browns’ only option. The team could presumably pursue Dolphins tight end Charles Clay, but the transition tag could ultimately scare the organization away.

The Browns don’t need much help in their secondary, so the team should focus on shoring up their defensive line. The only member of the Browns defensive line to receive a positive rating from PFF in 2014 was John Hughes, and that was in limited snaps. The majority of the team’s linemen struggled, particularly Desmond Bryant and Billy Winn, so if the team was looking to make one splash this offseason, that’d probably be a place to look. As Luke pointed out, Pettine’s tenure in Buffalo could make Cleveland a landing spot for Bills defensive end Jerry Hughes, and the 26-year-old would certainly be a welcome addition.

For any below-.500 team, many big-name free agents would certainly help the product on the field. The front office has to distinguish whether the length of a contract would justify the player’s production. It’s difficult to imagine the Browns adding one of the elite free agents (Ndamukong Suh, Devin McCourty, Randall Cobb), so the team needs to be financially conscious as they look to acquire some reinforcement.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Mitchell Schwartz burst onto the scene as a second-round pick in 2012. The offensive tackle has started in every game since entering the league, and he’s topped 1,000 snaps in each of his three seasons. According to PFF, his best season came during his rookie year, when he was ranked 23rd among 80 offensive tackle candidates. Those same numbers suggest that Schwartz has only been average the last two seasons, but his consistency and health certainly make a commodity.

The team could also look to extend Gipson, assuming the safety isn’t stolen in restricted free agency. The team hasn’t formally announced which tender they’ll assign to the safety, but assuming it’s a first or second rounder, the Browns should be able to retain the former Wyoming standout. After that, the team can focus on extending the talented defensive back and keeping him in Cleveland longterm.

Overall Outlook:

The team had seemed to be making some real progress under Pettine, and there’s still reason for optimism in Cleveland. The coach has had an entire year to evaluate his roster, and he certainly has some franchise cornerstones on his squad. With a boatload of cap room and multiple first round picks, it should be expected that the organization takes another step forward this offseason. Granted, that implies the front office doesn’t repeat their mistakes from last year, including whiffing on both of their draft choices.

The Browns should have some money to spend, so the team could certainly add some talent wherever they think best. As long as the Browns can get some production from their free agents and rookies, the team should be able to build on their 7-9 record from 2014.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2015 Top 50 NFL Free Agents

March 7th, 2015 at 12:41pm CST by Luke Adams

2015’s NFL free agents can’t officially sign with any team except their own until Tuesday at 3:00pm central time, but plenty of deals could be agreed upon in principle this weekend, now that the league’s so-called legal tampering window is open. Before all of this year’s best available players start flying off the board, we’ll take a look at the top players of the 2015 free agent class.

Our list of 2015’s top 50 free agents doesn’t include restricted free agents, or players who were designated as franchise or transition players, since they’re essentially restricted free agents now as well.

Justin Houston, Jason Pierre-Paul, Demaryius Thomas, and Dez Bryant – having received the non-exclusive franchise tag from their respective teams – could still technically land with a new team, but it would require that team to sign an offer sheet and part with two first-round picks, which likely won’t happen. Charles Clay, who received the transition tag from the Dolphins, is in a similar boat — the Fins won’t get any compensation if they decline to match an offer sheet for Clay, but the tight end still isn’t free to sign with whichever team he wants. Miami would have the right to match any offer.

So with those caveats out of the way, let’s dive right in! Here are Pro Football Rumors’ top 50 NFL free agents for 2014, along with a few predictions on how much they might earn and what teams could be in the mix to sign them:

1. Ndamukong Suh, DT (Lions): You could make a case that Justin Houston or Dez Bryant would have been the No. 1 unrestricted free agent had they not been franchised, but we had both players behind Suh in our last edition of our 2015 free agent power rankings. It’s very rare that a player of this caliber reaches the open market without restrictions, and his new contract should reflect that. At this point, it seems very likely that the star defender will exceed $100MM on a six-year contract, making him the league’s highest-paid defender. The Dolphins and Lions look like the favorites for now, but don’t rule out a dark horse candidate — most teams could clear the space necessary to accommodate Suh, and there isn’t a team he wouldn’t make better.
Signed with Miami Dolphins for six years, $114MM. $59.955MM fully guaranteed.

2. Devin McCourty, S (Patriots): Typically, the top free agents are wide receivers, tackles, cornerbacks, or pass rushers; not interior defensive lineman and safeties. But both Suh and McCourty have one thing in common: There aren’t many players at their respective positions who are more consistent and more productive year in and year out. If Jairus Byrd could land $9MM a year when he hit the open market last March, it seems reasonable that McCourty should make something similar. Keep an eye on the Giants, Eagles, and perhaps the Colts.
Re-signed with New England Patriots for five years, $47.5MM. $22MM fully guaranteed.

3. Randall Cobb, WR (Packers): A February report suggesting Cobb was seeking $9MM per year was a little surprising since it seemed so… reasonable. With Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant no longer fully unrestricted free agents, Cobb’s stock gets a boost, making it no surprise that his price tag has apparently increased. The Packers wideout is an extremely talented player, and one of the youngest players near the top of this list (he’ll turn 25 in August). However, bidders like the Raiders or Jaguars should beware of making him their No. 1 wideout and relying on a much lesser quarterback than Aaron Rodgers to get him the ball, because he’ll be hard-pressed to match his 2014 numbers.
Re-signed with Green Bay Packers for four years, $40MM. $13MM fully guaranteed.

4. Julius Thomas, TE (Broncos): It surprised me a little to find I’d ranked Thomas so high, considering how underwhelming his final half-season in Denver was. But I expect any suitors eyeing Thomas will blame that stretch on his balky ankle, and count on getting a fully healthy dynamic red-zone target if they decide to invest in Thomas. The Seahawks have been mentioned as a sleeper for Thomas, and the idea of the big tight end catching balls from Russell Wilson is certainly intriguing, but it’s hard to imagine Seattle being the highest bidder. The Browns, Jets, and Falcons all make some sense.
Signed with Jacksonville Jaguars for five years, $46MM. $21MM fully guaranteed.

5. Jerry Hughes, DE (Bills): By all accounts, the Bills would like to retain Hughes, who has posted double-digit sacks in each of the last two seasons. But a defensive line that also features Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus, and Kyle Williams is starting to get expensive, and Rex Ryan and the club may decide that the money is better spent on bolstering another area of the roster. Hughes should command a salary in the range of $8-10MM annually, and the teams that currently employ former Buffalo coaches or assistants like Doug Marrone (Jaguars), Mike Pettine (Browns), and George Edwards (Vikings) are somewhat intriguing fits.
Re-signed with Buffalo Bills for five years, $45MM. $11.775MM fully guaranteed.

6. Jeremy Maclin, WR (Eagles): Having turned down a five-year contract from the Eagles to sign a one-year, prove-it deal last winter, Maclin certainly did prove it. His 85 receptions, 1,318 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns were all career highs, and he should be able to parlay that success into a more lucrative long-term deal than Philadelphia was offering a year ago. Of course, the fact that 2014 was his only 1,000-yard season is a red flag, and his injury history is another. Throw in question marks about whether his success was a byproduct of Chip Kelly‘s offense, and I wouldn’t be surprised if rival suitors were wary about making a significant investment in Maclin, ultimately pushing him back to the Eagles for 2015 and beyond.
Signed with Kansas City Chiefs for for five years, $55MM. $22.5MM fully guaranteed.

7. DeMarco Murray, RB (Cowboys): Over and over, we’ve been told that the running back position has been devalued in recent years, which will limit Murray’s market. However, LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch are both getting more short-term money from their respective teams in Buffalo and Seattle, and the Vikings seem to be willing to bring back Adrian Peterson at a $15MM+ cap hit. In other words, Murray’s value might not have fallen as far as we think. I expect a team in need of an impact running back to make an offer the Cowboys are unable – or unwilling – to match, perhaps in the neighborhood of $8-9MM per season.
Signed with Philadelphia Eagles for five years, $40MM. $18MM fully guaranteed.

8. Pernell McPhee, DE/OLB (Ravens): An underrated pass rusher, McPhee won’t be a well-kept secret for much longer. He’s a good candidate to be this year’s Everson Griffen, who inked an unexpectedly huge five-year contract with the Vikings last year based more on his potential than his past performance. Of course, in McPhee’s case, it almost certainly won’t be his old team that’s signing him to that lucrative new deal. The Colts, who need a pash rusher and are coached by former Ravens defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano, are my pick.
Signed with Chicago Bears for five years, $38.75MM. $8.675MM fully guaranteed

9. Byron Maxwell, CB (Seahawks): Maxwell is one of this year’s more intriguing free agents, in my opinion. A somewhat uninspiring cornerback market should ensure that he lands a big contract, perhaps in the $9-10MM per year range. Armed with that big new contract, Maxwell will have to prove that his success in Seattle wasn’t just a byproduct of playing in the same secondary as Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, and Kam Chancellor. The Eagles, Jets, and perhaps the Jaguars look like the best bets to take the plunge for Maxwell.
Signed with Philadelphia Eagles for six years, $63MM. $22MM fully guaranteed.

10. Bryan Bulaga, T (Packers): A year ago, the market had a handful of high-end offensive linemen capable of playing on the left side, including Jared Veldheer and Eugene Monroe. This time around, Bulaga looks like the best tackle by far, meaning he’ll likely be overpaid. The final numbers on Bulaga’s new contract will depend on whether his new team views him as a potential left tackle — if that’s the case, the former first-round pick could end up approaching an eight-digit annual salary.
Re-signed with Green Bay Packers for five years, $33.75MM. $8MM fully guaranteed.

11. Greg Hardy, DE (Panthers): No player’s value is more difficult to pin down than Hardy’s. Faced with this same group of players a year ago, I might have placed the standout pass rusher second on the list behind Suh. But a year off the field, along with the lingering possibility of discipline from the NFL for the domestic violence charges that were eventually dropped, means that clubs will be wary of guaranteeing Hardy too much money. I wonder if, like Maclin a year ago, Hardy will be inclined to take a one-year, make-good contract in the hopes of a big payday a year from now. Either way, the Falcons, Raiders, and Titans are among the teams I think could make some sense.
Signed with Dallas Cowboys for one year, $11.312MM. Non-guaranteed.

12. Mike Iupati, G (49ers): The top interior lineman on the board this month, Iupati should ultimately land a contract that makes him one of the league’s highest-paid guards, and I don’t think that contract will come from the Niners. The Bills look like they could be a strong contender for Iupati’s services, considering they’re employing Greg Roman, the guard’s old offensive coordinator. I think the Rams would be a nice fit too.
Signed with Arizona Cardinals for five years, $40MM. $11.5MM fully guaranteed.

13. Brandon Graham, DE/OLB (Eagles): It seemed as if the Eagles never figured out the ideal way to utilize Graham, who appears to be a better fit as a 4-3 end than a 3-4 outside linebacker. Still, Graham graded as Pro Football Focus’ third-best player at the position in 2014, despite playing just 524 defensive snaps (subscription required). In the right system and with the right coaches, Graham – whose career high in sacks is just 5.5 – could get that number up to double digits. His asking price is said to be in the four-year, $30MM range, which doesn’t seem outrageous. I sort of like the idea of Graham in San Diego as a Dwight Freeney replacement.
Re-signed with Philadelphia Eagles for four years, $26MM. $13MM fully guaranteed.

14. Jason Worilds, OLB (Steelers): After receiving the transition tag from the Steelers a year ago, Worilds put up nearly the same season in 2014 that he did in 2013, and while his numbers weren’t eye-popping, he’s an above-average player at an important position. A deal with a per-year salary in the $7-8MM range appears within reach, and given all the cap-clearing they’ve done recently, the Eagles look like a strong candidate to pursue Worilds to replace Trent Cole and Graham.
Announced his retirement.

15. Torrey Smith, WR (Ravens): Unlike Cobb and Maclin, Smith didn’t put up massive numbers in his walk year. In fact, it was quite the opposite — the wideout’s 49 catches matched a career low, and his 767 receiving yards were also a career-worst mark. Smith’s 11 touchdowns were nice, as is his ability to draw long pass interference penalties down the field, but I don’t anticipate him seeing quite as big an offer as Cobb or Maclin. Something in the $7MM-per-year range would make him a solid, well-paid No. 2 for any team interested in investing. The Raiders, Dolphins, Chiefs, Texans, Browns, Niners, and Panthers are among the clubs expected to be in the market for receiving help, and I could imagine a few of those teams as fits.
Signed with San Francisco 49ers for five years, $40MM. $8.75MM fully guaranteed.

16. Terrance Knighton, DT (Broncos): A cheaper alternative to Suh, Knighton also won’t have the same game-changing impact that Suh will. Still, teams not looking to break the bank on an interior lineman should give a long look to “Pot Roast,” who is an imposing – and consistently effective – presence in the middle, particularly against the run. Knighton is a candidate to follow former Broncos defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio to the Raiders.
Signed with Washington for one year, $4.45MM. $2.95MM fully guaranteed.

17. Rodney Hudson, C (Chiefs): Centers don’t make the same kind of money that left tackles do, but they’re being regarded in recent years as one of the most important players on an offensive line, and I imagine Hudson’s new deal will reflect that — anything less than $6MM per year would be a surprise. The Raiders and Rams are a couple teams with a hole at center and the flexibility to add a solid veteran like Hudson.
Signed with Oakland Raiders for five years, $44.5MM. $12.6MM fully guaranteed.

18. Nick Fairley, DT (Lions): The overlooked man in Detroit, Fairley has taken a back seat to Suh, which isn’t unfair. In retrospect, Detroit’s decision to turn down the defensive lineman’s fifth-year option for 2015 – a decision which was curious at the time – looks even more questionable now, since the team could have had him under control for about $5.5MM. If the Lions lose Suh, I imagine Fairley will become a priority, but the same could be said of other teams who miss out on this year’s free agent prize — the Dolphins, Raiders, Jaguars, Titans, Colts, and others could be in play for Fairley.
Signed with St. Louis Rams for one year, $5MM. $1.5MM fully guaranteed.

19. Brian Orakpo, OLB (Washington): A lost 2014 season, cut short by a pectoral injury, will diminish Orakpo’s value a little, but I expect he’ll still do fine for himself on the open market. A return to Washington remains possible, but the Falcons are said to be interested, and the Jaguars – likely eyeing Orakpo as a potential “Leo” – have also been cited as a suitor. For his part, Orakpo has said he wouldn’t mind playing for a team in his home state of Texas, so there are plenty of potential landing spots.
Signed with Tennessee Titans for four years, $32MM. $8MM fully guaranteed.

20. Derrick Morgan, DE/OLB (Titans): Like Graham, Morgan has excelled as a part-time pass rusher in Tennessee, despite a fairly modest sack total and a perception that he hasn’t lived up to his first-round billing. He’s the sort of player who could see a real uptick in production if he lands in the right situation; it will just be a matter of identifying that right situation. The Falcons and Bengals are a couple teams I think could make some sense for Morgan.
Re-signed with Tennessee Titans for four years, $27MM. $8.5MM fully guaranteed.

21. Kareem Jackson, CB (Texans): As of Friday night, Jackson and the Texans were still engaged in contract discussions in the hopes of getting something done, but if the cornerback makes it to the open market, I wouldn’t be surprised if new Jets GM – and former Texans executive – Mike Maccagnan gets in touch with Jackson’s reps. New York is in need of cornerback help, and Jackson would come cheaper than someone like Maxwell or Darrelle Revis (if he becomes available).
Re-signed with Houston Texans for four years, $34MM. $20MM fully guaranteed.

22. Brandon Flowers, CB (Chargers): After his bounce-back season in San Diego in 2014, re-signing with the Chargers seems like the most logical move for Flowers, but we’ll have to wait and see if he opts for a higher bidder. The veteran corner was another player who inked a one-year, prove-it contract last offseason, and at age 29, this may be his last chance to land a big, long-term deal, so it would be hard to blame him for accepting his biggest offer. With so many clubs expected to be in the market for a cornerback this month, it’s not clear yet where that biggest offer would come from.
Re-signed with San Diego Chargers for four years, $36.4MM. $18MM fully guaranteed.

23. Jared Odrick, DT (Dolphins): Odrick appears to be stuck in the middle of the Dolphins’ pursuit of Suh, with talks between him and the club in a holding pattern until Miami figures out whether or not they can actually land this year’s top free agent. If the Fins miss out on Suh, I’d expect them to turn back to Odrick, an underrated lineman who can occasionally get after the quarterback, despite what his single sack in 2014 may suggest. Odrick’s asking price figures to be in the $6MM per year range.
Signed with Jacksonville Jaguars for five years, $42.5MM. $17MM fully guaranteed.

24. Chris Culliver, CB (49ers): One of two Niners starting cornerbacks eligible for free agency, Culliver is more appealing than Perrish Cox. Culliver is just 26 years old and is coming off a season in which he limited opposing quarterbacks to a completion percentage of 50.7% and a 66.5 passer rating when they threw into his coverage. Like Flowers, Culliver should draw a good deal of interest from teams in need of cornerbacks, a list that includes the Seahawks, Eagles, Jets, Vikings, Saints, Bengals, and Lions. The Bears shouldn’t be overlooked either, considering former 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is now running the D in Chicago.
Signed with Washington for four years, $32MM. $16MM fully guaranteed.

25. Orlando Franklin, G (Broncos): Franklin may not inspire the type of bidding war that Iupati could, but teams in need of interior line help could certainly do a lot worse. In 2014, Pro Football Focus ranked Franklin as the league’s fourth-best left guard, grading him positively as both a pass and run blocker. Throw in the fact that he’s only 27 years old, and Franklin looks poised to at least match the five-year, $30MM deal signed by his former teammate Zane Beadles last winter.
Signed with San Diego Chargers for five years, $36.5MM. $15.5MM fully guaranteed.

26. C.J. Spiller, RB (Bills): Spiller reportedly turned down an offer from the Bills worth $4.5MM annually, and it’s fair to think he could find something in that neighborhood on the open market. Of course, it won’t be in Buffalo, where LeSean McCoy is set to join the Bills, but could it be in Philadelphia? Spiller certainly seems interested in replacing McCoy and signing with the Eagles. The Jets, Patriots, Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, and 49ers are a few more potential fits.
Signed with New Orleans Saints for four years, $16MM. $5.75MM fully guaranteed.

27. Jordan Cameron, TE (Browns): With Charles Clay having received the transition tags, teams who miss out on Julius Thomas may be more inclined to negotiate with Cameron, rather than waiting for the Dolphins to potentially match an offer sheet for Clay. That’s good news for the Browns tight end, who is only a year removed from an 80-catch season. Cameron enjoyed that success under offensive coordinator Norv Turner, and while joining the Vikings probably isn’t a realistic option, given the presence of Kyle Rudolph, perhaps Cameron would be interested in following 2014’s offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, to Atlanta, where the Falcons are in need of a tight end.
Signed with Miami Dolphins for two years, $15MM. $5MM fully guaranteed.

28. Rahim Moore, S (Broncos): As perhaps the second-best option behind McCourty in what is shaping up to be a somewhat weak safety market, Moore should do well for himself on the open market next week. Having just turned 25, Moore is coming off the first season in which he started all 16 games, and he handled the role well, with 51 tackles and four interceptions. Washington, the Giants, and the Colts are among the teams that need to add a safety, and I have to imagine that Moore’s old defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will give him a long look on behalf of the Raiders.
Signed with Houston Texans for three years, $12MM. $4MM fully guaranteed.

29. Michael Crabtree, WR (49ers): Crabtree is now two years removed from the best year of his career, when he posted 85 catches, 1,105 yards, and nine touchdowns in the regular season before adding another 20 receptions, 285 yards, and 3 TDs in the playoffs. Teams in need of a wideout will weigh Crabtree’s 2012 success against his up-and-down performance in 2014 when deciding what sort of player they’d be getting. A team like the Chiefs or Raiders certainly shouldn’t sign Crabtree counting on him to be their No. 1 receiver, but he’d be a great fit in a place like New England or even Indianapolis, where he’d be the second option for a Pro Bowl quarterback.
Signed with Oakland Raiders for one year, $3.2MM. $1.3MM fully guaranteed.

30. Mark Ingram, RB (Saints): Inconsistency and health problems plagued Ingram’s first three years with the Saints, and 2014 wasn’t a totally healthy season either, but it was certainly an impressive one. In 13 games, the 25-year-old racked up 964 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, taking advantage of finally getting the opportunity to be New Orleans’ feature back. On the strength of that performance, his age, and his light career workload (582 carries in four NFL seasons), Ingram may challenge Spiller as the second-most coveted back in this year’s class. I could imagine the Lions being a nice fit for Ingram, where he could get 60% of the team’s carries with Joique Bell acting as the change-of-pace back.
Re-signed with New Orleans Saints for four years, $16MM. $6.1MM fully guaranteed.

31. Antonio Cromartie, CB (Cardinals): Cromartie has made no secret of the fact that he’d like to sign with the Jets this winter — his Cardinals teammate Patrick Peterson even complained that all Cromartie talked about was “freaking New York.” While Cromartie returning to the Big Apple isn’t a fait accompli quite yet, I expect there to be plenty of mutual interest if the Jets don’t get a chance to land Darrelle Revis.
Signed with New York Jets for four years, $32MM. $7MM fully guaranteed.

32. Jabaal Sheard, DE/OLB (Browns): Sheard has seen his sack count decrease in each of his NFL seasons, from 8.5 in 2011 to just 2.0 in 2014. The Browns also took him out of the starting lineup this past season, reducing his snap count to 690. However, Sheard played very well in the new role — out of all the league’s 3-4 outside linebackers, only Terrell Suggs had a better grade against the run, per PFF. Sheard would be a nice fit for a team that employs a part-time player that could spell him in passing situations — pairing him with a veteran free agent like Dwight Freeney could make some sense.
Signed with New England Patriots for two years, $11MM. $5MM fully guaranteed.

33. Dan Williams, DT (Cardinals): Another potential target for teams that miss out on Suh, Williams could likely fit into a 4-3 scheme or act as the nose tackle for a 3-4 team, as he did in Arizona. A former first-rounder, Williams is still just 27 years old and ranked among PFF’s top 10 defensive tackles against the run in 2014. A deal in the neighborhood of $5-6MM per year for him seems about right to me.
Signed with Oakland Raiders for four years, $25MM. $15.2MM guaranteed.

34. Davon House, CB (Packers): House was behind Sam Shields, Tramon Williams, and even Casey Hayward on the Packers’ cornerback depth chart in 2014, so his placement on this list is more a reflection of his potential rather than his upside than anything else. Quarterbacks only completed 46.8% of their passes into House’s coverage last season, per PFF, which placed him fourth among qualified cornerbacks, and he’s still only 25 years old. A team that misses out on one of the top-tier cornerbacks in this market may find a bargain with House, who should have the opportunity to move into a starting role if he joins a new team.
Signed with Jacksonville Jaguars for four years, $24.5MM. $10MM fully guaranteed.

35. Rolando McClain, ILB (Cowboys): With David Harris off the market, no free agent inside linebacker is coming off a stronger 2014 campaign than McClain, who revitalized his career in Dallas. McClain held his own against the run and in pass coverage, and even pressured the quarterback 15 times, while racking up 87 tackles and a pair of interceptions in his 13 regular season contests. Re-signing with the Cowboys may make the most sense for McClain, given how great a fit it was, and considering that other suitors may be wary of his off-field question marks. But I expect Dallas won’t be the only team in the running for his services. Miami, Chicago, Minnesota, and New Orleans are a few possible landing spots that might make sense.
Re-signed with Dallas Cowboys for one year, $3MM. $500K fully guaranteed.

36. Joe Barksdale, T (Rams): Barksdale isn’t a star, but in a market that lacks many steady, reliable tackles, he should sign a deal similar to the $6MM-per-year pacts signed by Austin Howard and Anthony Collins a year ago. Possible suitors for the right tackle include the Jaguars, Giants, Vikings, Titans, and Buccaneers.
Agreed to terms with San Diego Chargers for one year, $1.095MM. $350K fully guaranteed.

37. Frank Gore, RB (49ers): A running back entering his age-32 season probably shouldn’t be this high up on the list, but Gore has shown no signs of slowing down after entering his thirties. The longtime Niner has surpassed 1,100 rushing yards for four consecutive seasons, and still averaged a solid 4.3 yards per carry in 2014. He’d be a nice stop-gap option for a team that hasn’t had consistent running back play in recent years, such as the Colts.
Signed with Indianapolis Colts for three years, $12MM. $6.5MM fully guaranteed.

38. Tramon Williams, CB (Packers): Last seen giving up the overtime touchdown to Jermaine Kearse that sent the Seahawks to the Super Bowl, Williams shouldn’t be remember for that play, but teams also shouldn’t go overboard bidding for a cornerback who – like Gore – will turn 32 before Week 1. A recent report indicated that the Packers were willing to bring Williams back for a two-year deal worth $8MM, while the veteran will be seeking a three- or four-year contract worth $5MM+ annually. I could definitely see Williams signing for at least three years and $15MM, and the Seahawks, mentioned in that report as a suitor, would be a logical fit, though hardly the only, fit.
Signed with Cleveland Browns for three years, $21MM. $10MM fully guaranteed.

39. Stefen Wisniewski, C (Raiders): A solid but unspectacular interior lineman, Wisniewski should do well in this market for his ability to provide stability in the middle for a team that has lacked it in the last year or two. A multiyear deal averaging $5MM+ per year appears likely, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Wisniewski received that sort of offer from the Cardinals. Arizona has been mentioned as a potential player for the Raiders center, and they poached a lineman from Oakland a year ago, in Jared Veldheer.
Signed with Jacksonville Jaguars for one year, $2.5MM. $500K fully guaranteed.

40. Trent Cole, DE/OLB: Cole’s best years are probably behind him. After he posted six consecutive seasons with eight or more sacks from 2006 to 2011, Cole’s production has fallen off in recent years — he has just 17.5 sacks since 2012. Still, the 32-year-old was a top-20 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014, per PFF’s data, and despite a modest sack total, he accumulated 47 total quarterback pressures. He won’t land the kind of big-money, long-term contract that a younger player like Hughes or McPhee will, but a team in need of a veteran pass rusher could do much worse. While Cole is considered a better fit as a 4-3 defensive end, making him a target for a club like the Buccaneers or Seahawks, 3-4 teams like the 49ers, Colts, and Browns have also been linked to him, so his market is wide open.
Signed with Indianapolis Colts for two years, $14MM. $7.75MM fully guaranteed.

41. Buster Skrine, CB (Browns): When the Browns drafted Justin Gilbert with the eighth overall pick, the rookie was expected to join Joe Haden in the starting lineup, relegating Skrine to the bench. The veteran held onto his starting job though, and only one other cornerback in the NFL played more snaps than Skrine’s 1,152 (Cary Williams, with 1,198). With teams avoiding Haden, Skrine also saw the second-most targets in the NFL (123), and held QBs to a 56.9% completion percentage. Cleveland is still hopeful that Gilbert is the long-term answer opposite from Haden, so I expect we’ll see Skrine sign elsewhere, and he could be a nice under-the-radar pickup for a team in need of a cover man.
Signed with New York Jets for four years, $25MM. $13MM fully guaranteed.

42. Ryan Mathews, RB (Chargers): Considered an injury-prone player for the first three seasons of his career, Mathews finally stayed healthy and put it all together in 2013, rushing for a career-high 1,255 yards. He was unable to keep that run of good health going in 2014 though, playing just eight games and heading into free agency with plenty of question marks. When he’s healthy, the former 12th overall pick can be one of the better backs in the league, but uncertainty about whether he’s capable of playing 16 games again will likely limit his market. It wouldn’t be a big surprise to see Mathews return to San Diego.
Signed with Philadelphia Eagles for three years, $11MM. $5MM fully guaranteed.

43. Sean Weatherspoon, LB (Falcons): Speaking of injuries, no free agent on this top 50 has played fewer games over the last two seasons than Weatherspoon, who appeared in seven contests in 2013 while battling foot and knee issues, and none in 2014, due to a ruptured Achilles. While he may not be the most reliable player here when it comes to health, Weatherspoon is still just 27 years old, and averaged 110 tackles per season in 2011 and 2012. Atlanta will likely make an effort to bring him back, and the Cardinals may pounce if he reaches the open market.
Signed with Arizona Cardinals for one year, $3.85MM. $1.25MM fully guaranteed.

44. Stephen Paea, DT (Bears): An underrated presence in the middle of the Bears’ defensive line, Paea is a nice target for teams hoping to generate some pressure on the quarterback from the defensive tackle spot. Only Suh and Kyle Williams had more quarterback pressures from the DT position in 2014 than Paea’s 47, according to PFF. The 26-year-old may have to be paired with a solid run defender, but a multiyear contract averaging at least $5-6MM annually looks like a good bet for Paea.
Signed with Washington for four years, $21MM. $7.85MM fully guaranteed.

45. Clint Boling, G (Bengals): Another solid interior lineman who won’t inspire much excitement among the fans of the team who lands him, Boling should nonetheless be a solid addition for his new club — or his old club, if the Bengals manage to keep him in the fold. Ranked as the NFL’s eighth-best left guard in 2014 by PFF, Boling might look good wearing purple and gold in Minnesota for old Bengals DC Mike Zimmer.
Re-signed with Cincinnati Bengals for five years, $26MM. $5MM fully guaranteed.

46. Antrel Rolle, S (Giants): With the Giants potentially aiming big at safety, as they look to land an impact player like McCourty, Rolle may find himself looking for work elsewhere, and there should be no shortage of suitors for the former first-round pick, even at age 32. Rolle saw his Pro Football Focus grade fall off a cliff in 2014 due to a poor performance against the run, but is only a year removed from being a top-10 player at the position. The Colts had success bringing in a veteran safety last year, when they signed Mike Adams, and could be a good fit for Rolle.
Signed with Chicago Bears for three years, $11.25MM. $4.9MM guaranteed.

47. Mason Foster, ILB (Buccaneers): Foster’s stock received a bit of a bump when David Harris and Rey Maualuga both re-signed with their current teams within the last few days, reducing the amount of viable inside linebacker starters on the market. The Dolphins have been cited multiple times recently as a potential suitor for Foster, and I’d expect the team to target him as a middle linebacker with Harris no longer on the table.
Signed with Chicago Bears for one year, minimum salary. $80K guaranteed.

48. Da’Norris Searcy, S (Bills): Typically, I’d expect the Bills to make an effort to sign a young safety like Searcy, who has developed into a solid starter and wouldn’t necessarily break the bank like Jairus Byrd did a year ago. But Buffalo, having locked up Aaron Williams last year, seems unwilling to spend on multiple safeties, and Rex Ryan usually targets inexpensive, under-the-radar players at the position. That opens the door for Searcy to land with a new club, and I think he could end up being one of the better signings of the offseason, assuming his annual price tag doesn’t exceed $5MM or so. The former fourth-round pick has displayed some big-play ability on defense, grabbing three interceptions in 2014 and scoring two return touchdowns in 2013.
Signed with Tennessee Titans for four years, $23.75MM. $7MM fully guaranteed.

49. Henry Melton, DT (Cowboys): The Cowboys weren’t willing to commit to Melton for three years and $24MM, and turned down their option on the defensive tackle, which is reasonable. As good as Melton is when he’s on the field, he has had health issues, and was only a part-time player in 2014. Still, another year removed from the ACL injury that wiped out his 2013 campaign, Melton could return to being an impact player in 2015, and shouldn’t be overlooked by teams that miss out on Suh or Knighton.
Signed with Tampa Bay Buccaneers for one year, $3.75MM. $3.25MM fully guaranteed.

50. Shane Vereen, RB (Patriots): After suggesting that Vereen would be aiming for a $5MM annual salary, Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald said this week that the running back’s asking price was down to about $3.5MM per year, which seems about right to me. He’s not a workhorse-type back, but Vereen is a weapon that can be used in a lot of different ways. Pairing him with a back who is capable of toting most of those first- and second-down carries could result in a nice combination for whichever team signs him.
Signed with New York Giants for three years, $12.35MM. $4.75MM fully guaranteed.

Honorable mention:

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Seahawks

March 6th, 2015 at 6:05pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Richard Sherman, CB: $12,200,000
  2. Marshawn Lynch, RB: $8,500,000
  3. Michael Bennett, DE: $8,000,000
  4. Cliff Avril, DE: $8,000,000
  5. Earl Thomas, S: $7,400,000
  6. Russell Okung, T: $7,280,000
  7. Brandon Mebane, DT: $5,700,000
  8. Kam Chancellor, S: $5,650,000
  9. Max Unger, C: $5,600,000
  10. K.J. Wright, LB: $4,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 31 overall pick
  • Conditionally acquired fourth-round pick from Jets in deal for Percy Harvin; pick becomes a sixth-rounder if Harvin is cut by March 19.
  • Owe sixth-round pick to Colts in deal for Marcus Burley.

Other:

Overview:

Despite a heartbreaking conclusion, the 2014 season was another enormous success for the Seahawks. After a so-so start, USATSI_8381310_168380616_lowresthe reigning Super Bowl champions closed the regular season with six victories in a row, finished 12-4 and earned a second consecutive NFC West crown. The team went on to pull off a miraculous rally against the Packers in the NFC championship game, overcoming a 12-point fourth-quarter deficit before winning dramatically in overtime and clinching a second straight conference title.

Unfortunately for Seattle, as exhilarating as its triumph over Green Bay was, its Super Bowl XLIX loss to the Patriots was at least as deflating. The Seahawks, just 26 seconds and a single yard from another Lombardi Trophy, looked like shoo-ins to repeat as champs. However, a questionable second-down play call and shoddy execution combined for their undoing when the Pats’ Malcolm Butler intercepted quarterback Russell Wilson at the goal line to seal a 28-24 victory for New England.

How well the Seahawks will bounce back from such a shattering defeat won’t be found out until next season, of course. In the meantime, general manager John Schneider will use the offseason to lock up key talent for the foreseeable future and supplement an already formidable roster. Although Schneider’s squad won’t require much help, it does have some areas that could use his attention.

Key Free Agents:

When the free agent market opens March 10, the likelihood is that the Seahawks will lose starting cornerback Byron Maxwell. In fact, a source told Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that Seattle has “little or no chance” to retain the 27-year-old. Maxwell, a four-year veteran, began garnering extensive playing time in 2013 and has intercepted six passes since. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked him 45th among 108 qualifying corners last season and an impressive 16th out of 110 the year prior. Now it appears he’ll parlay his success with the Seahawks into a sizable payday from another franchise.

None of Seattle’s other pending defensive free agents make the impact Maxwell does, but the group has some useful role players in linebacker Malcolm Smith, end O’Brien Schofield and tackle Kevin Williams. The Seattle Times’ Bob Condotta wrote earlier this week that Smith, the Super Bowl XLVIII MVP, will “probably get better offers elsewhere.” Thanks to injuries and the players in front of him on the depth chart, Smith didn’t leave much of a mark last season. The two linemen, Schofield and Williams, were both valuable depth for Seattle in 2014. Schofield has previously spoken of a desire for more money and could be “tough” to keep, per Condotta, while the Seahawks would be interested in getting the soon-to-be 35-year-old Williams back on a second straight cheap, one-year contract.

The most significant offensive UFA the Seahawks have is left guard James Carpenter, who has started 39 games since they used a first-round pick on him in 2011. The injury-prone Carpenter set a career high with 13 starts last season, but Pro Football Focus (subscription required) wasn’t enamored with his play: The site rated him 47th out of 78 qualifying guards, which came on the heels of an even worse ranking the year prior (65th out of 81). Nevertheless, ESPN’s John Clayton told 710 ESPN Seattle radio last month that the team would take Carpenter back on a deal worth $3MM or less annually. Carpenter is seeking yearly value in the $4MM range, however, according to Clayton.

Like Carpenter, wide receiver Jermaine Kearse is also unsigned. However, the 25-year-old is a restricted free agent and received a tender offer from the team today. Given his team-controlled status, Kearse is a safe bet to return to receiver-needy Seattle, for which the three-year veteran finished second in both catches (38) and yards (537) last season.

Positions Of Need:

With Maxwell’s time in a Seahawks uniform expiring, they’re about to find themselves in need of a starting cornerback to pair with Richard Sherman and help maintain their top-ranked pass defense for a third year in a row. The Seahawks are prepared for Maxwell’s departure and have already begun turning their attention toward keeping the position strong. On Thursday, they visited with Cary Williams – whom the Eagles released earlier this week in a cost-cutting move. The 30-year-old hasn’t missed a game since 2010 and has tallied nine interceptions over the last three years. Moreover, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) liked Williams nearly as much as Maxwell last season, ranking the two four spots apart (Williams 49th, Maxwell 45th). Williams has visits with other teams scheduled and there’s no timetable on when he’ll sign.

Seattle also has its eyes on another corner named Williams – the Packers’ Tramon Williams – McGinn wrote Wednesday. As a pending free agent, Williams won’t be allowed to start negotiating with teams until Saturday. The eight-year veteran has spent his entire career in Green Bay, where Schneider worked as a front office assistant when Williams entered the NFL. According to McGinn, Schneider “views him as an ideal fit for coach Pete Carroll’s aggressive Cover 3 coverage scheme.” Multiple NFC personnel executives informed McGinn that Williams should net anywhere from $4MM to $6MM per annum on the open market. The 31-year-old has proven himself a durable playmaker, missing a mere one game out of a possible 128 and totaling a prolific 28 interceptions.

Offensively, the Seahawks’ receiver situation is mediocre at best. With the Percy Harvin experiment having failed, the Seahawks continue to be in need of game-breaking talent at the position. At the very least, they have to find another starting-caliber player to complement Doug Baldwin, who hauled in 66 passes for 825 yards last year.

While the odds of the Seahawks splurging on the Packers’ Randall Cobb, the Eagles’ Jeremy Maclin or the Ravens’ Torrey Smith are low, there are some satisfactory receivers available who are expected to sign more modest contracts. Among several candidates are the 49ers’ Michael Crabtree (if the front office is willing to overlook the differences between him and Sherman) and the Chargers’ Eddie Royal. Though neither is a world-beater – and the same is applicable to fellow free agents like Kenny Britt and Hakeem Nicks – adding one would give Wilson a third decent receiver to team with Baldwin and Kearse.

Seattle could otherwise turn to the draft, where it has the 31st overall pick. In his latest mock draft, Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com has the Seahawks taking Dorial Green-Beckham, formerly of Missouri, with their first-round selection. Green-Beckham offers an enticing blend of size (6-foot-5, 237 pounds) and 4.49 speed, but has dealt with numerous off-field issues.

Bettering their offensive line should also be on the Seahawks’ to-do list this offseason, especially with Carpenter’s possible exit. Football Outsiders graded Seattle’s O-line as the fourth best in the league last year at run blocking, though it struggled in pass protection – evidenced by a 24th-ranked adjusted sack rate. Although the Seahawks have two outstanding linemen in left tackle Russell Okung and center Max Unger, they’ve combined to miss 23 regular-season games during the previous two years. Further, Okung hasn’t played a 16-game season since the Seahawks drafted him in 2010. Right guard J.R. Sweezy and right tackle Justin Britt aren’t nearly as good as Okung or Unger, but they’re cheap and they’ve been able to stay on the field. Therefore, they’re likely to retain their starting jobs.

The one open spot is seemingly at left guard, where the Seahawks are going to have trouble making considerable strides if they aren’t willing to throw money at the 49ers’ Mike Iupati, the Broncos’ Orlando Franklin or the Bengals’ Clint Boling. Like some of the aforementioned receivers, the three top left guards on the market are going to cost a lot – perhaps too much for a team that will soon have crucial contract decisions to make on in-house talent.

Ultimately, should Carpenter walk and the big-time free agents price themselves out of the Seahawks’ range, they could simply plug in backup Alvin Bailey as a starter. That would enable them to focus on bolstering their O-line depth with lesser signings and adding potential future starters by way of the draft.

Possible Cap Casualties:

Entering the offseason, many viewed tight end Zach Miller as someone whose roster spot with the Seahawks was in jeopardy. The eight-year veteran missed 13 games last season with an ankle injury and sophomore Luke Wilson showed promise in his place. Unsurprisingly, the Seahawks elected Friday to release Miller, ESPN’s Field Yates tweeted, and save $2.39MM on their 2015 cap.

Moving to the defensive line, Seattle has an expensive tackle, Brandon Mebane, who missed most of last season with a torn hamstring. Releasing him would save the Seahawks $5.5MM. It’s improbable to think the team will part with Mebane because he’s a quality player and, as Condotta wrote earlier this week, a respected figure in the locker room. With that said, Schneider could always decide there’s a more alluring way to spend $5.5MM.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

The status of five-time Pro Bowl running back Marshawn Lynch was up in the air as recently as Friday, when he agreed to a new deal with the Seahawks that shouldn’t affect his 2015 cap number. With Lynch’s situation taken care of, at least briefly, the Seahawks can begin to focus on some of their other players with uncertain futures.

During their three-year run as a premier team, one of the major luxuries the Seahawks have had is top-notch quarterback play for a relative pittance. Wilson has played the first three years of his career on his rookie deal – and he was only a third-rounder, remember – while throwing 72 touchdowns against 26 interceptions and helping lead Seattle to a 36-12 regular-season record, two NFC championships and a Super Bowl title. Wilson’s stellar play at a minimal price has allowed Schneider to stack the team around his QB with high-cost players. Those days are nearing an end, however, to at least an extent.

Wilson’s contract runs through next season. Between now and this time next year, the Seahawks are going to have to pay him a substantial amount of money. Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported in January that Wilson’s next deal would make him the highest-paid QB in the league, surpassing the five-year, $110MM pact Aaron Rodgers inked with Green Bay in 2013. Schneider said last month that the Seahawks would use an “outside-the-box” approach with Wilson’s contract, according to NFL.com’s Chris Wesseling, implying they’ll find a way to generously compensate the 26-year-old without damaging the rest of the roster.

Okung is also a year from free agency. Despite his injury issues (he has missed 21 of 80 regular-season games), Okung will be in for a hefty payday. It’ll be his second one – the ex-Oklahoma State standout signed a $48MM deal with $29MM in guarantees when he entered the league – and CBS Sports’ Joel Corry, a former agent, opined that Okung “probably won’t be interested in a new contract” worth less than his rookie deal. A raise might be out of range for the Seahawks, considering their other upcoming contractual priorities.

The centerpiece players scheduled for free agency in 2016 don’t stop on offense, unfortunately for Seattle. Bobby Wagner, who has been one of the league’s foremost defenders during his first three seasons, is a year from hitting the open market. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) has ranked Wagner as the second-, 12th-and fifth-best 3-4 inside linebacker during his first three years. In 2014, he made 100-plus tackles in only 11 games and was rewarded with his first Pro Bowl invitation and First-Team All-Pro status. Wagner will be just 25 if he becomes a free agent next March and, between now and then, could approach or pass the Texans’ Brian Cushing as the league’s richest 3-4 ILB in terms of total value. Cushing signed for $52.5MM in 2013.

The Seahawks will also have to make a decision soon on pass-rushing linebacker Bruce Irvin, who has amassed 16.5 sacks in his three-year career. The team has until May to choose whether to pick up Irvin’s fifth-year option for 2016. That option is the value of the highest-paid 25 players at his position, excluding the top three players. The exact sum isn’t yet known, but it will be appreciably more than the $2.90MM Irvin is set to rake in next season.

Overall Outlook:

Regardless of its Super Bowl gaffe, Seattle is a battle-tested, uber-talented club led by an excellent coaching staff. Most of that talent and the majority of the coaches will return next season. Thus, with a productive offseason, the redemption-driven Seahawks should find themselves back in the championship hunt in 2015. Things will get trickier thereafter, though – as salaries for integral players markedly increase, Schneider’s mission to field an elite team will become more taxing.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: New England Patriots

March 5th, 2015 at 7:00pm CST by Ben Levine

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Darrelle Revis, CB: $25,000,000 (option)
  2. Tom Brady, QB: $14,000,000
  3. Jerod Mayo, LB: $10,287,500
  4. Rob Gronkowski, TE: $8,650,000
  5. Nate Solder, T: $7,438,000
  6. Sebastian Vollmer, T: $7,020,833
  7. Danny Amendola, WR: $5,700,000
  8. Brandon Browner, CB: $5,500,000
  9. Julian Edelman, WR: $4,656,250
  10. Kyle Arrington, CB: $4,625,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 32 overall pick
  • Acquired fourth-round pick from Buccaneers in deal for Logan Mankins.
  • Acquired sixth-round pick from Buccaneers in deal for Jonathan Casillas.
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Titans in deal for Akeem Ayers.
  • Owe fifth-round pick to Buccaneers in deal for Jonathan Casillas.
  • Owe sixth-round pick to Titans in deal for Akeem Ayers.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Rams in deal for Greg Salas.

Other:

Overview:

The hype surrounding the Patriots last offseason was in regards to their additions, and the buildup proved to be warranted. Several pickups, including wideout Brandon LaFell and cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, helped put the team over the top as they won their fourth Super Bowl in franchise history.

The story this offseason may be the complete opposite, as the team could potentially lose several key contributors, including safety Devin McCourty.

The team’s biggest decision surrounds a player the Patriots could realistically keep. The Patriots hold a pricey team option on Revis, but all signs are pointing to the team declining the one-year deal. That would mean the team would have to address two sizable holes in the secondary.

If New England hopes to retain its premier defensive backs, the team will have to do some finagling to make the necessary cap room. This will mean veterans will be asked to take a pay cut, and if they refuse, their tenure with the Patriots may be finished.

As always, it should be an exciting offseason in New England.

Key Free Agents:

McCourty has established himself as one of the top safeties in the league since switching to the position in 2012. The former first-rounder has consistently finished atop Pro Football Focus’ rankings, and the 27-year-old is showing no signs of slowing down, as he’s missed only one game over the past three seasons.

Devin McCourtyThe Patriots surprised some earlier this week when they opted to not tag the All-Pro safety, instead opting for kicker Stephen Gostkowski. McCourty said it’s now “realistic” that he could be playing elsewhere in 2015, and that was the risk the Patriots were taking when the decided to not franchise the former first-rounder. As the bona fide top safety available this offseason, McCourty should have plenty of suitors to choose from.

The Patriots will presumably be in on the player, but it’s uncertain what they’d be willing to offer. Conventional wisdom would suggest that McCourty is less valuable to the Patriots considering the presence of Revis, who can be relied on to shut down the opponent’s top receiver. This allows McCourty to shadow the Patriots’ No. 2 cornerback or linebackers, while also spying on the quarterback. That’s not a ridiculous task to expect from any safety, meaning the Patriots could reasonably replace McCourty will a less expensive (albeit less talented) alternative.

Of course, that final point is made moot if Revis decides to bolt from New England. The cornerback’s cap hit would be worth $25MM if the Patriots opt to pick up his option, and at that price, such a move would be a bit of a surprise. The ideal situation for the team would be to decline the option, and re-sign the veteran to a deal that satisfies both parties. Of course, there’s plenty of risk in letting Revis test the free agent waters, especially with potential suitors, including Rex Ryan’s Bills, licking their chops at the prospect of signing the Pro Bowler. PFR’s Luke Adams had examined the various options the Patriots have in regards to the All-Pro cornerback last month.

If the Patriots decide to decline the option, it has to be assumed that Revis would instantly become the team’s top priority in free agency. The cornerback had perhaps the biggest impact of any free agent addition in 2014, and his presence was a big reason why the Patriots won the Super Bowl.

The Patriots also made news today when they declined to pick up the option on defensive tackle Vince Wilfork, making the 33-year-old an unrestricted free agent. The former first-rounder was limited by a torn Achilles in 2013, but the lineman seemed to be back to full strength in 2014. PFF’s advanced metrics ranked Wilfork as the sixth-best defender on the Patriots, and his run defense rating was far and away the best score on the team. Of course, the defensive tackle isn’t getting any younger, and his $8.9MM cap hit for next season would have been hard to justify, especially considering the players the Patriots may be looking to re-sign. Wilfork could very well return to New England on a cheaper contract, but based on his reaction to taking a pay cut last season, it seems unlikely that he’ll take too much of a discount.

The Patriots will also be looking to bring back several offensive contributors from last season. Running back Shane Vereen had his best season in 2014, playing in all 16 games for the first time in his career. The former second-rounder is a proven threat catching the ball, recording 52 receptions for 447 yards last season. Meanwhile, fellow running Stevan Ridley is also a free agent. The 26-year-old is only two seasons removed from a 1,200-yard season, but the presence of LeGarrette Blount could mean that Ridley’s time in New England has come to an end.

Offensive lineman Dan Connolly proved to be a reliable presence in multiple spots, and the Patriots seem to value his versatility.

Finally, mid-season additions Akeem Ayers and Jonathan Casillas are still young enough to deserve a second look.

Possible Cap Casualties:

If the Patriots hope to keep both Revis and McCourty, someone is going to have to either take a pay cut or move on. The Patriots already cleared up some room by declining Wilfork’s option, and the team could clear up an additional $7MM by releasing another defensive veteran, linebacker Jerod Mayo.

The former first-round pick has only played 12 games over the past two seasons as he’s recovered from a torn pectoral muscle and a torn patellar tendon. While the 29-year-old could now be considered an “injury risk,” there’s no denying his impact on the defense. Despite missing more than half his team’s games last season, Mayo still played the 14th-most snaps on the Patriots defense, and PFF ranked him as a top-11 defender on the squad. Given the presence of linebackers Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones, Mayo is certainly expendable. However, considering the versatility of the Patriots defenders, Mayo could still have a major impact on the team if he sticks around.

Other than Mayo, no other Patriots would immediately create an abundance of cap room if they were released. Receiver Danny Amendola’s $5.7MM cap hit doesn’t necessarily reflect his production (81 receptions, 833 yards, three touchdowns in two seasons with Patriots), but his postseason performance may indicate that he’s getting more comfortable with the team’s offense. Cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Kyle Arrington combine for a $10MM cap hit, and the team has enough depth in the secondary to move on from the duo. Of course, those potential moves would depend on where Revis and McCourty end up.

Positions Of Need:

Many of the Patriots’ offseason “needs” will depend on where their own free agents land. If Revis and McCourty sign elsewhere, the team will certainly be seeking some reinforcement in their secondary. Both players are the class of their respective positions, so it’s unlikely the situation will resemble last offseason, when the Patriots replaced the departing Aqib Talib with Revis.

With Wilfork presumably moving on, the team may be looking to fill a 325-pound hole on their defensive line. 24-year-old Sealver Siliga played well in limited snaps last season, and the former undrafted rookie could be ready for a bigger role in the defense. The Patriots essentially red shirted their first-round pick from last season, defensive lineman Dominique Easley. The 23-year-old is presumably a key piece for the future of the franchise, but it’s uncertain if the Florida alumnus is ready for a full-time role in the NFL.

On offense, the Patriots could potentially lose a pair of running backs in Vereen and Ridley. While there are plenty of buy-low candidates for the team to consider, Bill Belichick could be just as content going forward with his current group. Besides Blount, the team could turn to Jonas Gray, Brandon Bolden, James White, or Tyler Gaffney. Based on the Patriots unpredictability at the position, there doesn’t need to be any panic in retaining the pair of free agents.

The team has been rumored to be looking for a “deep threat” receiver in recent years, but the success of the offense in 2014 may indicate that the team doesn’t need any additional weapons. The team knew what they had in Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, and the team got some much-needed production from LaFell in 2014, as the wideout finished with career-highs in receptions (74), yards (953) and touchdowns (seven). Amendola came on strong during the postseason, and tight end Tim Wright (acquired in the Logan Mankins trade) proved to be a red-zone threat with seven touchdowns last season.

The offensive line is one area where the team could certainly use some depth. The group received plenty of criticism following the Patriots’ slow start in 2014, and their production down the stretch was a big reason for the team’s turnaround. However, the squad still featured a number of unheralded players, as half of the offensive line were originally undrafted rookies (and another three, Marcus Cannon, Bryan Stork and Cameron Fleming, were drafted in the fourth round or later). While the team got some unexpected production from this group (particularly from Ryan Wendell and Stork), the line could use an additional veteran presence.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

If the Patriots wanted to clear up additional cap room for this offseason, the team could work on an extension with offensive lineman Nate Solder. The former first-round pick has a cap hit worth $7.5MM next season, and while the team could get most of that money back by cutting him after June 1st, it seems unlikely that they’d just cut bait with the 26-year-old. Solder is entering the final year of his contract, so it may be in the Patriots best interest to work on an extension now.

Overall Outlook:

When Belichick has opted to let his veteran talent exit via free agency or trade, he’s typically been correct with his assessment. Ty Law, Richard Seymour, and even Logan Mankins failed to show the type of talent they displayed in New England following their departures, allowing the coach some leeway when he opts to let a beloved or contributing member of the team loose.

However, considering the talent the Patriots may be losing, it would be tough for Belichick to justify losing two key members of the secondary. Revis and McCourty had a significant impact on the Super Bowl-winning defense, and their presence would be difficult to replace, whether via trade, free agency or the draft.

Of course, the Patriots have plenty of flexibility in how they can approach the offseason. Regardless of their moves, with Belichick and Tom Brady back for another season, the Pats should still be considered the class of the AFC.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Raiders

March 5th, 2015 at 9:31am CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Austin Howard, T: $6,400,000
  2. Matt Schaub, QB: $5,500,000
  3. Donald Penn, T: $5,400,000
  4. Justin Tuck, DE: $4,968,750
  5. Khalil Mack, LB: $4,244,773
  6. Charles Woodson, S: $4,200,000
  7. Antonio Smith, DT: $4,000,000
  8. Nick Roach, LB: $3,721,250
  9. Sebastian Janikowski, K: $3,610,000
  10. Marcel Reece, RB: $3,580,838

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 4 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview:

Last offseason, Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie put his team under major reconstruction to try and turn the tide. Things didn’t exactly work out as planned. The Raiders got off to an 0-4 start that had players speaking out off the record and some, like veteran Charles Woodson, speaking out on the record. After the Raiders endured a grueling flight across the pond only to get blown out by the Dolphins, head coach Dennis Allen was shown the door. Eventually, Allen’s gig was handed over to his former second in command, Tony Sparano. Sparano got more out of his players, but only got 3 wins out of his 9 at the helm, leading the team to turn things over to Jack Del Rio after the season.

The year wasn’t without its bright spots, of course, and the biggest silver lining (get it?!?) was the play of rookie quarterback Derek Carr. While other teams are scheming to get one of the top two picks in this year’s draft in order to get a capable young quarterback, Oakland has no such need and they can focus on other areas.

Coaching Changes:

The Raiders were eyeing Del Rio early on in their offseason search and he ultimately won out over the incumbent Sparano. Of course, the Broncos’ defense never got the same kind of love as the team’s offense, but the Denver defense finished fourth in DVOA in 2014 after placing in the middle of the pack in 2013 under Del Rio’s guidance. Other teams with coaching vacancies seemed to flock to the sexiest names of the bunch like flies to a bug zapper. Every other team clamored to interview guys like Dan Quinn and Rex Ryan, but the Raiders more or less went by the beat of their own drum, save for their overtures towards new Jets coach Todd Bowles. With Del Rio comes two new coordinators in Bill Musgrave (replacing Greg Olson) and Ken Norton Jr. (taking over for Jason Tarver).

Some expected that McKenzie wouldn’t return, but his job was spared in the team’s shakeup. One has to imagine that he won’t have a very long leash, however.

Key Free Agents:

The Raiders acted quickly to re-sign one of their biggest name free agents in Woodson. The veteran, who celebrates his 39th birthday in October, started all 16 games for the club, grabbing four interceptions to go along with a career-high 111 tackles. The advanced metrics didn’t love his performance as Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked him 68th out of 87 qualified safeties, thanks in large part to the 355 yards after catch he allowed. Still, the Raiders were obviously satisfied with his performance and rewarded him with another one-year deal that carries base value of $3.2MM. Ultimately, the deal will count for $4.2MM against Oakland’s cap after taking into account the likely-to-be-earned incentives.

Still, there are more free agents to go, including center Stefen Wisniewski. Wisniewski stands as Oakland’s most important free agent on their docket, but they opted not to use the franchise tag to retain him. The reasoning there is fairly straight forward: while the soon-to-be 26-year-old is highly valued, all offensive linemen are grouped together when it comes to the pricing of the tag, so keeping him that way would have meant paying him like a top-tier left tackle. At last check, the two sides are talking but there appears to be a decent-sized gulf between the two. PFR’s Luke Adams recently suggested that Wisniewski could land a deal worth between $5-7MM annually.

Last month, McKenzie divulged that will let both Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown hit the open market as the Raiders look to go younger at cornerback. That doesn’t automatically mean that they won’t be back in Oakland, however.

“I’m going to let those guys hit the market and we’ll see what happens there,” McKenzie said, according to Jerry McDonald of the Bay Area News Group. “We like what our young corners have done. I think veterans like that are here on the team to bring those young guys along. And I think they kind of did that. Carlos was a savvy veteran that they leaned on. Tarell did a good job with those guys. I think it’s their turn.”

Rogers and Brown might have value as mentors, but they both graded out as below average in 2014 according to PFF, coming in at 69th and 75th amongst qualified corners, respectively. The door is open for them, but probably only slightly, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them in different uniforms in 2015.

Last offseason, the Raiders brought back running back Darren McFadden on an inexpensive one-year deal. This time around, McKenzie doesn’t sound inclined to do the same thing.

“To me, this year’s a little different because Latavius [Murray], in 2013 he spent the whole season rehabbing an injury,” McKenzie said in February, according to Vic Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle. “Last year, I think he showed that he can be a player.”

McFadden began the year as the No. 2 back behind Maurice Jones-Drew, started 12 games and gained 534 yards on 155 carries. However, they eventually gave the bulk of the work to Latavius Murray and the exciting youngster is widely viewed as the team’s feature back of the future.

The Raiders have four wide receivers – Denarius Moore, Vincent Brown, Rod Streater, and Andre Holmes – all eligible for either unrestricted or restricted free agency. Moore’s burn has fluctuated over the last four years thanks to some stints in the doghouse, but he’s a solid athlete who can help round out the team’s receiving corps behind James Jones. Holmes, 27 this summer, should stick around since he’s an RFA. Streater, who led the team with 60 catches for 888 yards and four touchdowns in 2013, played just three games in 2014 due to a foot injury. Assuming he’s healthy, the Raiders will probably exercise their power to match any offer for him.

Pat Sims, a defensive tackle who is vicious against the run, could be brought back to Oakland on an affordable one-year deal.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Raiders started their spring cleaning a bit early by letting go of safety Tyvon Branch and edge defender LaMarr Woodley.

Branch, 28, was with the Raiders for seven seasons. He started 62 out of a possible 64 games in his first four years but he missed all but five games over the past two seasons. The Raiders saved $2.9MM by releasing the strong safety but they’ll carry $7MM in dead money for the luxury of dropping his remaining three seasons on the deal. Branch was the 11th-highest-paid safety in the NFL, but his production just hasn’t matched that thanks to his injury troubles.

Days later, the Raiders decided to release Woodley. The 30-year-old spent the first seven seasons of his career with the Steelers and his first season in silver-and-black didn’t go as planned. Woodley, who went from playing outside linebacker in a 3-4 set to a 4-3 defensive end, placed 44th out of 59 qualified 4-3 DEs per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In total, his season lasted six games before a biceps tear knocked him out for the year. Woodley had no guaranteed money coming in 2015, so Oakland was able to clear his entire cap figure off its books, saving ~$5.2MM.

Jones-Drew, once one of the league’s top rushers, was signed to be the starter in Oakland. Things didn’t go as planned, however, and MJD finished with just 96 yards off of 43 carries. As Jones-Drew approaches his 30th birthday towards the end of March, it’d be hard to see the Raiders keeping him and his $2.5MM cap number for 2015. If you’re thinking that Del Rio could show some favoritism and keep him around at that price, think again, as the coach expressed serious doubts about how much the diminutive back has left in the tank. If Jones-Drew returns, I’d expect it to be at a greatly reduced price, but there’s no guarantee that offer would even be there.

Veteran quarterback Matt Schaub isn’t expected to be back in the fold with Carr firmly entrenched as the No 1 quarterback and Matt McGloin capable of handling the duties as the No. 2 QB on the depth chart. The Raiders won’t hesitate to shed Schaub and his $5.5MM cap number. Offensive lineman Kevin Boothe, who has experience at both center and guard, is set to carry a cap number of $1.3MM and could be let go.

Austin Howard theoretically could be let go after finishing as one of the league’s worst regularly playing right guards (per PFF), but the dead money on his deal will probably keep him around for this upcoming season. Del Rio let everyone know last month that Howard will change positions and compete at right tackle with third-year player Menelik Watson. Sebastian Janikowski ain’t cheap with a cap hit of $3.6MM, but he missed only three field goal attempts in 2014. Besides, dropping the soon-to-be 37-year-old would be like taking the eye patch off of the Raiders’ logo.

Positions Of Need:

With Nick Roach already ruled out for the season, the Raiders’ top need is probably finding a starting middle linebacker. Miles Burris could theoretically be called upon again, but he wasn’t all that effective when given the opportunity. Brandon Spikes, who is rather profiecient as a run stopper, probably stands as the best available MLB on the open market. Meanwhile, new defensive coordinator Norton is extremely familiar with Rey Maualuga from their time shared together at USC and the 28-year-old is coming off of his best season to date. Maualuga still graded out as being just a tick below average, according to PFF, but he’d represent a cheaper solution at the position if the Raiders wanted to direct more money elsewhere.

As mentioned earlier, the Raiders have three key receivers who could potentially reach the open market. Regardless of how things shake out there, they can be expected to look into finding a true top target for Carr. Armed with the No. 4 pick in the draft, the Raiders are in prime position to grab Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper. Cooper doesn’t boast the insane athleticism of last year’s top rookie receiver Odell Beckham Jr., but he’s a very advanced route runner for a player at his age and could make a major impact right off the bat in Oakland. While Cooper’s name has been thrown around as the top wideout in this class for some time, there are some who have made the case for DeVante Parker (Louisville) and Kevin White (West Virginia). Sounds surprising, but you only have to look back to last year where Sammy Watkins was almost universally regarded as the best talent over the rest of the crop, including Beckham. The jury is still out on that race as we’re only one year in, but Beckham just might prove to be the best WR out of that class, despite being the third one off the board.

With Howard going over to tackle and Wisniewski set to hit free agency, the Raiders will be looking to fill in their offensive line. In the draft, At the top of the draft, there’s Iowa’s Brandon Scherff, who could play tackle or guard. Taking him at No. 4 might be something of a reach, however, and they’ve got other needs. Tafur recently suggested that Florida’s Cam Erving could make a lot of sense for Oakland and he projects more as a second-round prospect. An added bonus: scouts feel that Erving could work as a guard, tackle, or center. In free agency, Oakland could make a play for 49ers guard Mike Iupati or Broncos guard/tackle Orlando Franklin. Neither one will be cheap, but the Raiders don’t have to be with a great deal of cap room to work with.

The Raiders could use a defensive tackle and, as is the case with every team seeking a DT, they’ve been connected heavily to Ndamukong Suh. After all, the Raiders are cash flush and there’s no better way to upgrade the D-Line than adding one of the league’s most feared players. There are options outside of Suh in free agency, of course. Broncos notable Terrance Knighton would cost a whole lot less, as would Henry Melton, who was looking pretty solid in 2014 before his injury. Nick Fairley is understandably overshadowed by Suh this offseason, but he’s slated to hit the open market and he’d move the needle for any team that signs him.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Donald Penn signed a two-year contract with the Raiders around this time last year and he’s set to earn $4.6MM in his walk year. You can beat up Oakland for a lot of their decisions in the spring of 2014, but Penn’s deal is not one of them. He more than earned his contract with his play last year which resulted in him being ranked as the No. 7 ranked tackle in the league by PFF (subscription required). Great tackles don’t grow on trees and Penn has a history of being one of the better ones in the league, earning a positive grade from PFF in every season since 2011.

Overall Outlook:

The Raiders have a boatload of cap room to work with this offseason, the No. 4 overall pick, and they’ll have every opportunity to vault themselves into the playoff mix in 2015. The question is whether they’ll utilize those resources properly. Their recent history says they won’t, but nothing is constant in the NFL. Maybe this year is the year that the Raiders get things right.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

March 4th, 2015 at 7:10pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Gerald McCoy, DT: $14,595,000
  2. Vincent Jackson, WR: $12,209,777
  3. Michael Johnson, DE: $9,000,000
  4. Dashon Goldson, S: $8,000,000
  5. Logan Mankins, G: $7,000,000
  6. Anthony Collins, T: $6,000,000
  7. Alterraun Verner, CB: $4,250,000
  8. Evan Dietrich-Smith, C: $3,750,000
  9. Mike Evans, WR: $3,325,341
  10. Michael Koenen, P / Clinton McDonald, DT: $3,250,000 (tie)

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

Picked by some as a possible surprise playoff contender, the Buccaneers completely collapsed under new head coach Lovie Smith en route to winning just two games, their lowest win total since 1986. Veteran quarterback Josh McCown, signeLavonte Davidd to a curious multi-year contract during the offseason, couldn’t replicate his 2013 success, and ended up splitting time at QB with second-year player Mike Glennon. A revamped offensive line also struggled, leaving rookie receiver Mike Evans as the sole bright spot on offense.

Tampa Bay’s defense, expected to be the stronger side of the club, also played below expectations, finishing 25th in both yard and points allowed. The unit was especially poor against the pass — after releasing Darrelle Revis prior to the season, the Bucs finished 28th in passing yards allowed. On a positive note, Tampa did lock up star defensive tackle Gerald McCoy to a seven-year extension worth more than $95MM.

Key Free Agents:

Like most teams who performed badly enough to be holding the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, the Buccaneers don’t have a ton of free agents who they need to worry about retaining. Oniel Cousins played at both tackle spots, ultimately starting seven contests, but wasn’t effective, posting a -21.0 Pro Football Focus grade (subscription required), struggling especially in pass-blocking. At 31, Cousins’ best days are behind him, and he shouldn’t be a priority in free agency.

At tight end, Luke Stocker was also below-average in his 331 snaps, but he’s been decent in prior seasons. He’s just 27 years old, and not a terrible option as the No. 3 TE behind Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Brandon Myers. Stocker shouldn’t require much of a commitment to be re-signed, so I’d expect him to be brought back.

The Bucs field one of the best outside linebackers in football in Lavonte David, but Mason Foster has been manning the middle since being drafted in 2011. He had been steadily improving as his career progressed, but after being slowed last season by a shoulder injury (and ultimately missing six games), he regressed. Still, Foster just turned 26 on Sunday, so he has youth and experience (54 career starts) on his side. He’s worth re-signing, but with the Dolphins reportedly showing interest, the Bucs shouldn’t get into a bidding war.

After following Smith from Chicago, Major Wright started seven games at free safety, rating as a perfectly average player (+0.4 PFF grade). He was among the worst safeties in the league in 2013, so there’s a concern that he could slide back to his prior levels of production. Wright earned only the minimum salary benefit last season, however, so if Smith feels comfortable with him in the back end, he’ll probably return (especially if Dashon Goldson doesn’t).

Since being selected 51st overall in the 2011 draft, defensive end Da’Quan Bowers has been nothing short of a bust, starting just 10 games in four seasons and never posting more than three sacks in any one year. Fellow end Adrian Clayborn, picked No. 20 in that ’11 draft, hasn’t disappointed to the same level, but he certainly hasn’t lived up to his draft status. Both players can probably survive in reserve roles elsewhere, but a return to Tampa shouldn’t be a priority.

Elsewhere on the defense, reserve linebacker Dane Fletcher is a key contributor on special teams and will probably be retained to serve in that capacity once again. Defensive end Larry English, a former first-rounder, struggled in his part-time pass-rushing duty, and could be running out of NFL opportunities.

Possible Cap Casualties:

After signing a five-year deal prior to the 2013 season, Goldson was supposed to team with Revis to give Tampa Bay one of the most feared secondaries in the league. Goldson, now 30 years old, hasn’t held up his end of the bargain, as he’s been among the worst safeties in the NFL, including grading out as the second-worst at his position in 2014, according to PFF. He’s been floated as a trade candidate, but the Buccaneers would be hard-pressed to find another team willing to take on Goldon’s contract, which contains a $7.5MM base salary for this season ($4MM of which is guaranteed). Tampa would have to carry that $4MM in dead money if it cuts Goldson, but his play has dropped to the point where a release seems inevitable, although the two sides could agree to a pay cut.

Michael Koenen is a decent punter, but he is still a specialist, making his 2015 $3.25MM cap hit hard to justify. He ranked just 29th in net punting average, so the Bucs should at least make a move to reduce his salary. Or, if Tampa thinks is can find a better option through the draft or free agency, it can release Koenen, clearing his entire cap charge.

There have been rumblings that defensive end Michael Johnson could be on the chopping block, as his first season in Tampa was disappointing. He’s not a great fit for Smith’s defensive scheme, but he was a very productive player with the Bengals as recently as two years ago. Johnson is only 28 years old, and he’d count $7MM in dead money if he were cut (juxtaposed against just $2MM in savings). He’s probably safe for 2015.

Two other Buccaneers would have been listed here had the club not already made a decision on their respective fates. Tampa will retain veteran receiver Vincent Jackson at his $12.2MM cap charge, a somewhat surprising decision given the trade rumors that had swirled around him last season. On the other hand, the Bucs will either trade or release failed 2014 signee Anthony Collins, who never worked out in his transition to a full-time role at left tackle.

Positions Of Need:

The most glaring need on Tampa’s roster is obviously at quarterback, where McCown has already been released and the club is reportedly open to trading Glennon. Fortunately for the Buccaneers, they shouldn’t have to delve into an extremely weak free agent QB market, because as holders of the No. 1 overall selection, they can have their choice of successful NCAA signal-callers — but will it be Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota?

With about eight weeks left until the draft, the early returns show Winston as the favorite to hear his name called first. Speaking at the combine, Smith said he would be comfortable with the FSU alum as the “face of the franchise,” and today Winston visited with the club’s owners in Tampa. Winston looks like the pick, but as we’ve learned in previous drafts, anything can happen when the process begins.

After playing the majority of the year on the right side, Demar Dotson flipped to left tackle near the end of season and proved to be at least competent. Still, tackle is a need area for the Bucs — with Dotson in tow, the club can probably seek out the best tackle available, regardless of side, and plug Dotson in at the other spot. There aren’t many free agent options at left tackle, so Tampa is probably safer looking for a right-sider. Bryan Bulaga is the best choice available at RT, but the Bucs could also take a look at Doug Free or Jermey Parnell, both of whom played for the Cowboys last season. They could take a chance on the recently-released Michael Oher, but after striking out on Collins last year, they might not want to take another swing on a risky free agent.

Center and left guard are spoken for by Evan Dietrich-Smith and Logan Mankins, respectively, but right guard could be upgraded — Patrick Omameh rated as the No. 55 guard among 78 qualifiers, per PFF. Tampa could make a play for the top-name guards, like Mike Iupati or Orlando Franklin, or settle for a lesser-known player like Detriot’s Rob Sims. The Bucs could also take the veteran route and look at older players such as Daryn Colledge or Davin Joseph (a longtime Buc). The draft is said to be chock-full of offensive lineman, however, meaning the club could look to fill holes at tackle and/or guard with younger players.

On defense, Tampa Bay’s scheme requires pressure up front, something that was hard to come by last season (outside of McCoy’s production). Both the draft and free agency have plenty of options on the edge, so the Bucs should be able to find some help. From an on-the-field standpoint, Greg Hardy might be the perfect fit, as he could bring pressure from outside while McCoy dominates from the interior. But with his off-the-field baggage, Tampa might be uncomfortable making a play for the 26-year-old end. Instead, the club could target the Eagles’ Brandon Graham, who would fit better in a 4-3 look than he does in Philadelphia’s 3-4, or a veteran like Dwight Freeney. Ultimately, I expect the Bucs to add at least one top-notch edge rusher, plus several lower-tier depth options.

Elsewhere, the Buccaneers could aim to find a middle linebacker to replace Foster, but the FA market doesn’t have much to offer, meaning the draft might be the way to go. Additionally, Tampa could use another safety simply because Goldson’s play has been so detrimental. But with his large cap figure, I doubt the club would feel comfortable spending so much on the position. If they can pawn Goldson off to another team, maybe Tampa takes a run at Devin McCourty, or ex-Smith pupil Charles Tillman (if he’s willing to convert to safety), but it’s more likely they stay with their current crop.

Smith has made it clear that the Buccaneers don’t intend to sit out free agency, and with more than $33MM in cap space to use, they should be major players as they look for upgrades to their roster.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions:

The only viable extension candidate on Tampa Bay’s roster is David, who has quickly become one of the league’s best defenders since being drafted in 2012. The 25-year-old has topped 100 tackles in each of his first three seasons, and placed among the top-seven at his position (according to PFF) during that same span. Unfortunately for David, 4-3 outside linebackers aren’t highly-valued on the open market, and even though David is perhaps the best overall player at said position, he doesn’t have the earning potential of, say, a 3-4 outside ‘backer.

However, there’s no reason David shouldn’t earn the top salary among 4-3 OLBs, where Lance Briggs‘ $7MM per year average is the figure to beat. K.J. Wright and the Seahawks recently agreed to an extension that pays him $6.75MM per season, and David should be able to top that. I’d be surprised if David doesn’t at least match Briggs’ figure, and if pressed, I’d wager he’ll earn more.

Tampa Bay also has a fifth-year option on running back Doug Martin. Ever since his electrifying rookie season, the 2012 first-rounder has dealt with injuries and slowly been phased out of the offense. Even while starting 11 games last year, he failed to top 500 yards rushing, posting just 3.7 yards per carry. The Bucs will decline the option.

Overall Outlook:

The Buccaneers figure to be one of the more interesting teams in the league next season, especially if they choose Winston to be their quarterback of the future. The roster has holes to be sure, but the overall makeup of the club isn’t that different from the one that had observers predicting a postseason appearance prior to last season. Armed with ample space, the Bucs could make a few solid additions, and with a bit of luck, the playoffs aren’t completely out of reach — but it’s probably safer to view 2015 as a rebuilding year in Tampa Bay.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Rams

March 4th, 2015 at 9:34am CST by Luke Adams

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Robert Quinn, DE: $16,744,110
  2. Sam Bradford, QB: $16,580,000
  3. Chris Long, DE: $12,500,000
  4. Jake Long, T: $10,500,000
  5. Jared Cook, TE: $8,300,441
  6. Rodger Saffold, OL: $8,250,000
  7. Greg Robinson, T: $4,837,295
  8. Scott Wells, C: $4,750,000
  9. William Hayes, DE: $4,355,000
  10. James Laurinaitis, LB: $4,275,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 10 overall pick
  • Owe fourth-round pick to Buccaneers in deal for Mark Barron.
  • Owe sixth-round pick to Buccaneers in deal for Mark Barron.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Falcons in deal for Alec Ogletree.
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Patriots in deal for Greg Salas.

Other:

Overview:

Even in a hyper-competitive NFC West division, the Rams entered the summer of 2014 as a potential dark horse postseason candidate. The team didn’t have much offensive firepower to speak of, but the addition of Aaron Donald made the defensive line the scariest in the NFL, and pairing a healthy Sam Bradford with 2013 breakout running back Zac Stacy looked like it would, at the very least, make the offense competent.

That optimism quickly took a turn south though, when Bradford was sidelined for a second straight season with an ACL injury. Following Bradford’s injury, the hits kept on coming: the defensive line took some time to gel, Stacy wasn’t nearly as effective, second overall pick Greg Robinson had some growing pains as he adjusted to the NFL, and key contributors like Chris Long and Jake Long went down with injuries.

Given all that went wrong in St. Louis, it’s a little surprising the team even managed to win six games, but a disappointing 2014 season means the club could once again head into 2015 as a sleeper. Armed with another top-10 draft pick, the Rams are prepared to add more talent to a roster that already features a handful of promising young players. There are plenty of question marks – particularly on the offensive side of the ball, where the club looks set to give Bradford one more shot – but there are plenty of solid building blocks already in place.

Key Free Agents:

A pair of quarterbacks who started games for the team last season – Shaun Hill and Austin Davis – are eligible for free agency, and even with Bradford due back, I’d expect to see the club try to re-sign one or both of those signal-callers. Hill, who will be entering his age-35 season is the sort of veteran backup who can at least give a team a chance to win if its starter goes down — he had a respectable 63.3% completion percentage and an 83.9 passer rating in his eight starts last season, and should be fairly inexpensive.Sam Bradford

If the Rams prefer not to retain both quarterbacks, it may make more sense to bring back Davis. His numbers in his own eight starts were extremely similar to Hill’s across the board, and at age 25, there’s presumably some room for improvement. Davis is also a restricted free agent, so the club could tender him a one-year offer at an affordable rate, and perhaps put off a more permanent decision on his future with the club for another season.

Besides the quarterbacks, the offense has a few more notable free agents, with tight end Lance Kendricks, offensive tackle Joe Barksdale, and wide receiver Kenny Britt all eligible to hit the open market. The Rams initiated extension discussions with Britt’s camp quite early, which is a sign the club would like to bring him back, and that makes sense. The former first-round pick had a nice bounce-back season in 2014 after reuniting with Jeff Fisher, establishing a new career high with 48 receptions, despite catching balls from a pair of backup QBs.

Britt will almost certainly be more expensive this time around than he was a year ago, when St. Louis was able to ink him to a one-year, $1.4MM pact. But for an offense that’s a little thin on playmakers, spending a few million on a 26-year-old wideout with big-play potential (he averaged 15.6 yards per catch in 2014, right in line with his career mark) looks like a worthwhile investment.

Barksdale’s future in St. Louis, on the other hand, looks more uncertain. The veteran tackle is reportedly set to test the open market after three years with the Rams, and I’m not sure the club will aggressively engage in a bidding war to retain him. Even though offensive line is an area of need for the Rams, the team may view the right tackle position as the best fit for Jake Long, now that Robinson has assumed the left tackle role. If that’s the case, there may not be a spot for Barksdale, who hasn’t played a whole lot of guard since entering the NFL. On the other hand, if the Rams end up parting ways with Long, or deciding to try him at guard, locking up Barksdale would become a greater priority.

As for Kendricks, with $8MM+ already committed to No. 1 tight end Jared Cook, it seems unlikely that the Rams would be willing to spend $4MM on a second tight end, and that’s Kendricks’ rumored asking price. While he could be back, it wouldn’t surprise me if Kendricks signed elsewhere, and the Rams brought back restricted free agent Cory Harkey and perhaps added another tight end in the draft.

Among the Rams’ other free agents, safety Rodney McLeod looks like the only key player the team will absolutely make an effort to retain. Appearing in more than 1,050 defensive snaps in 2014, the 24-year-old continued to establish himself as a solid NFL starter, and the arrival of former first-round pick Mark Barron shouldn’t jeopardize McLeod’s role in the secondary. As a restricted free agent, McLeod will be eligible for a one-year tender, and I expect he’ll get one.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Rams have already begun cutting ties with overpriced players, parting ways with defensive tackle Kendall Langford, who became expendable when Donald immediately established himself as one of the best interior defensive linemen in the NFL. Releasing Lanford created $6MM in cap savings for the club.

Next up? It may be Jake Long. As discussed earlier, the former first overall pick has been supplanted at left tackle by Robinson, and his $10.5MM cap number doesn’t really play anywhere else. Restructuring Long’s deal and trying him at a new position remains a possibility, but releasing him would save $8MM in cap room, which could be put toward signing one or two younger – and likely healthier – offensive linemen.

Elsewhere on the offensive line, Scott Wells looks like a logical cap casualty as well. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), among players who played at least 25% of their teams’ snaps in 2014, no center performed worse than Wells, who graded well below average as a run blocker and was even worse in pass protection. The 34-year-old is entering the final year of his deal, and cutting him would create $3.75MM in cap savings for St. Louis.

Among the other veteran players with sizable cap hits, defensive lineman Eugene Sims may also be on the chopping block. At around $3MM, it wouldn’t cost the Rams a whole lot to keep Sims in the mix, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the team chooses to do so, since he has been effective as a run stopper and can occasionally get to the quarterback. Still, he’s only a part-time contributor, and cutting him would clear nearly his entire cap number from the books — if the opportunity arises to add a cheaper replacement, I believe the team would explore that possibility.

Positions Of Need:

The Rams’ defense was once again its strength in 2014, ranking ninth in overall DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. With no key pending free agents set to hit the market, St. Louis is in fairly good shape on that side of the ball. Upgrading at linebacker and/or cornerback is a possibility this offseason, but it would be a luxury, rather than a necessity. For the most part, the team should focus on its offense, where a number of positions must be addressed.

First and foremost, the Rams will be on the lookout once again for a long-term answer at quarterback. A former first overall pick, Bradford was supposed to be that long-term solution, but injuries have limited him to just seven games in his last two seasons, and even when he has been healthy, his performance on the field early in his career has been up and down. Fisher and general manager Les Snead have spoken highly of the 27-year-old, with both men downplaying or outright dismissing trade rumors that swirled around at last month’s combine. Bradford also played a role in the team’s promotion of Frank Cignetti to offensive coordinator, and the hiring of Chris Weinke as quarterbacks coach, which is a sign that the club expects him to stick around.

It appears likely that Bradford will head into the 2015 season as the team’s No. 1 quarterback, assuming he’s healthy enough to do so, but it will be the final year of his contract, so the club will eventually have to decide whether to go in a different direction. Of course, if the team ultimately opts to replace Bradford with someone else, that replacement may not be added to the roster this offseason, given the lack of viable options on the free agent market and in the draft.

If the Rams don’t add a new quarterback this offseason, they can at least give their old QB a few more receiving options with which to work. Brian Quick flashed some real potential in 2014, but former first-rounder Tavon Austin still hasn’t shown a whole lot, and there’s no guarantee Britt will return. I wouldn’t expect the Rams to make a major play in free agency for someone like Jeremy Maclin or Randall Cobb, but adding a second-tier veteran is realistic. Nate Washington, who played for Fisher in Tennessee, is one possibility, and I could imagine Cecil Shorts being a fit in St. Louis. Selecting a wideout during the first day or two of the draft is also in play for the Rams.

While adding talent at the skill positions would be nice, the Rams’ more pressing needs are in the trenches — Robinson will be given every opportunity to make the left tackle position his own for the remainder of his rookie contract, and perhaps well beyond that. And last season’s big free agent signee, Rodger Saffold, was solid at left guard in 2014. However, the team could end up overhauling its other three offensive line positions this offseason.

Wells, as mentioned above, was ineffective at center, and Davin Joseph – who PFF ranked as a bottom-five guard in the league – was nearly as bad beside him. Barksdale was solid enough at right tackle, but both he and Joseph are on expiring contracts, while Wells is a strong candidate to be cut.

If the Rams do make a splash in free agency, I’d expect it to be somewhere on the offensive line. Interior options include Chiefs center Rodney Hudson, who would be a nice fit in St. Louis, as well as Raiders center Stefen Wisniewski, 49ers guard Mike Iupati, former Falcons guard Justin Blalock, and Bengals guard Clint Boling. Potential targets on the outside include Packers tackle Bryan Bulaga and Cowboys tackle Doug Free. Adding anyone from that list, and then drafting a lineman with the No. 10 overall pick, would go a long way toward solidifying the group that will be tasked with keeping Bradford upright in 2015.

The Rams are no lock to use that No. 10 pick on an offensive lineman — if a receiver like Amari Cooper or Kevin White falls that far, or if one of the top quarterbacks somehow slips, it would be hard to pass up on that sort of talent. Still, the same could be said of Iowa tackle Brandon Scherff, who would be a very nice addition if he’s available when the Rams are on the clock. Stanford’s Andrus Peat, LSU’s La’el Collins, and Miami’s Ereck Flowers also figure to receive consideration from St. Louis’ brass.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

The Rams don’t have a ton of cap room at the moment, and are the only NFL team that didn’t carry over any cap space from 2014. They should be able to create some flexibility by cutting (or significantly restructuring) Long and Wells, as noted earlier, and Bradford’s contract is another one that figures to be addressed. He’s currently set to count for $16.58MM against the cap in the final year of his deal.

Asking Bradford flat out to accept a pay cut may not be the best course of action for the Rams, even if a player coming off consecutive ACL injuries probably isn’t worth a $13MM base salary. Restructuring his deal in a way that reduces Bradford’s 2015 salary and cap hit while also giving him some bonus money up front, and tacking another year or two onto the contract, would seem like a logical solution, given how much the Rams’ brass likes the veteran signal-caller. If Bradford looks at this year’s dismal free agent class and believes he could cash in on the open market a year from now, he may drive a hard bargain, but working out a short-term contract extension seems like a mutually beneficial move for the two sides.

Besides Bradford, there are no extension candidates on the roster that need to urgently be addressed. The Rams locked up their top pass rusher, Robert Quinn, to a long-term deal last year, earning a big check mark on their to-do list. While the team could approach defensive tackle Michael Brockers about a new contract this summer, he has a fifth-year option for 2016, so there’s no hurry to get anything done with him quite yet.

Greg Zuerlein will be eligible for free agency after the 2015 season, but he’s coming off a year in which he missed three field goals from inside the 40-yard line, despite making five of seven from 50+. Although he may sign a new deal in the fall, I’d expect the Rams to want to make sure he’s back on track in the 2015 season before investing $3MM+ annually in him on a multiyear contract.

If the team needs to create additional cap room for 2015, Quinn, Cook, and Chris Long are among the players whose contracts could be restructured.

Overall Outlook:

PFR’s Rob DiRe wrote back in November that the Rams are only a quarterback away from contention, and while there’s some truth to that, I’d argue that the team is perhaps a couple offensive linemen away from contention as well — even if St. Louis were to add the next Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, that QB would need some solid players in front of him to keep him on his feet.

Without a real shot at Mariota or Winston, and with no free agent quarterbacks worth a significant investment, Bradford looks like the Rams’ best option heading into 2015, meaning the club can perhaps put its search for a new QB on the back burner temporarily. The defense looks good, and adding some new blood at wide receiver, offensive line, and perhaps tight end would give Bradford a greater opportunity to succeed, and to stay healthy. The former No. 1 pick may prove not to be the long-term solution at the position in St. Louis (or, potentially, Los Angeles), but assuming they can patch up their other holes, there may just be enough talent elsewhere on the roster to make the Rams a playoff contender in 2014.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Chargers

March 3rd, 2015 at 5:06pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits*:

  1. Philip Rivers, QB: $17,416,668
  2. Eric Weddle, S: $10,100,000
  3. Antonio Gates, TE: $9,762,500
  4. Corey Liuget, DL: $6,969,000
  5. Donald Butler, ILB: $5,480,000
  6. Malcom Floyd, WR: $4,716,668
  7. Mike Scifres, P: $4,347,500
  8. Chad Rinehart, G: $4,250,000
  9. Donald Brown, RB: $4,083,333
  10. D.J. Fluker, T: $3,109,772

* King Dunlap‘s new contract will likely place him in the Chargers’ top 10, but exact cap figures aren’t yet known.

Notable coaching changes:

  • Hired 2014 Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan as linebackers coach.

Draft:

  • No. 17 overall pick
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Cowboys for Sean Lissemore.

Other:

Overview:

After starting the year at 5-1, many had the Chargers pegged as Super Bowl contenders. Unfortunately, things unraveled quickly after the injury bug bit Philip Rivers and much of their offensive line. A mid-season resurgence thrust them back into the playoff picture, but the Chargers wound up losing three of their four final games, ending their season on December 28th.Philip Rivers

The Chargers are ready to put their disappointing and frustrating 2014 behind them, but they’ll have to take care of a few holes if they want to go for the AFC West crown and more in 2015.

Key Free Agents:

Chargers GM Tom Telesco recently said that the Chargers are “a different team” when Ryan Mathews is healthy and on the field. Unfortunately, the 27-year-old (28 in May) spent half of 2014 on the sidelines. To date, 2013 represents Mathews’ only full 16-game season. In that campaign, Pro Football Focus (sub. req’d) rated Mathews as the 29th best halfback out of 55 qualified players with an overall grade of +1.6, marking him as just above average. The traditional stats have that year pegged as arguably his best season ever as he ran for over 1,200 yards off of averaged 4.4 yards per carry. I’d expect the Bolts to try and work something out with the former No. 12 overall pick, but with a hard limit on how far they’ll go based on his health, age, and overall production. Ronnie Brown is also scheduled to hit the open market and there should be some conversation between the two sides after the 33-year-old showed some flashes late in the 2014 season.

As Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) show, 2013 was a pretty rough year for Brandon Flowers as he finished 85th out of 110 qualified corners. PFF rated Flowers as a top-seven corner in both 2011 and 2012, but the Chiefs could no longer justify his salary at that point and cut him, leading him to sign a one-year pillow contract with the Chargers. Now, his value is back up after a solid 2014 season that put him as the 15th best corner in the league, per PFF. Flowers is on the right side of 30 and playing good football once again, but he’d also be jumping in with a deep class of cornerbacks if he doesn’t re-sign. His payday could be capped by his competition, though teams like the Dolphins are already licking their chops at the prospect of landing him.

Less heralded cornerback Shareece Wright is also set to hit free agency. The former third-round choice started a career-high 14 games last season and finished third on the team with 54 tackles while breaking up six passes. He could be a good insurance policy for Jason Verrett and his surgically-repaired shoulder, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see another team offer him more money. Strong safety Marcus Gilchrist is in a similar position and another team could give him a chance to start.

Despite recording only 3.5 sacks in 2014, Dwight Freeney recorded 53 overall quarterback pressures, according to Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required), and figures to receive a lot of calls come March 10th. The 35-year-old saw only four games of action in 2013 thanks to a quadriceps injury but saw time in all 16 games last season.

The Chargers kept left tackle King Dunlap from hitting the open market with a four-year, $28MM extension in late February. The 30-year-old graded out as the 23rd-best tackle in the league out of 84 qualifiers last season, per PFF, and while he’s not in the elite tier at his position, the Chargers did not want to have to tough things out in free agency where it’s a seller’s market for tackles.

Eddie Royal never saw a consistently high number of targets in the Chargers’ offense, but then again that’s pretty much the case for every receiver in San Diego. The soon-to-be 29-year-old had 62 catches for 778 yards and seven touchdowns in 2014, his best season statistically in some time.

Positions Of Need:

The Chargers failed to produce on the ground in 2014 and that’ll be one of their top needs looking ahead to 2015. Most don’t see Branden Oliver, last year’s fantasy darling, as a guy who would be able to take care of the full workload and their need for a back will only increase if Mathews is not retained. The free agent market, of course, has some intriguing options, headlined by 2014’s Offensive Player of the Year DeMarco Murray. Murray’s odometer was cranked up pretty high last season, but he’s one of the very best in the league when he’s on the field. Going a little bit cheaper, Saints tailback Mark Ingram is coming off a career year and could make a lot of sense. Adrian Peterson is restless (to put it mildly) in Minnesota and while everyone is connecting AD to Dallas, the cash-flush Chargers might do their due diligence on him. While we’re discussing big names, former USC star Reggie Bush is also available. In the draft, the Chargers could look into some of this year’s top tailbacks like Melvin Gordon and Tevin Coleman. Then again, the Chargers aren’t necessarily looking for a guy to carry the ball 20 times per game, so a mid-tier veteran free agent like Frank Gore could be a solid addition to the depth chart alongside Oliver, Donald Brown, and Danny Woodhead.

Without a solid offensive line in San Diego, it won’t matter much who is carrying the ball. The Bolts have multiple holes to fill after the offseason retirements of veterans Nick Hardwick and Jeromey Clary. Hardwick, 33, had served as San Diego’s starting center since being selected by the Chargers in the third round of the 2004 draft, the same year that the team added Rivers. Clary, meanwhile, was with the Chargers since 2006 and started 93 of the 103 games he played for the team during his career. They have work to do on the o-line, but thanks to their newly-minted extension with Dunlap, they won’t have to pick through the shallow pool of available left tackles.

After the retirement of Jarret Johnson, the Chargers will also seek out a pass rusher this offseason. Fortunately for them, the need might not be as dire since Freeney has decided to continue playing. Of course, he’s also scheduled to hit the open market so he isn’t a lock to return. If linebacker Jason Worilds hits the open market on March 10th as expected, he would represent a major boost to the Bolts’ front seven. The Steelers standout won’t come cheap, so someone like defensive lineman Darnell Dockett could be a less pricey option if the Cardinals don’t work out a new deal with him. In the draft, super athletic defensive end Arik Armstead could be available at No. 17, though there’s no guarantee of that if he continues to impress.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Rivers is entering final year of a deal that will pay him $15.75MM in base salary and count more than $17MM against the salary cap. Telesco said earlier this year he wants Rivers to be a Charger for life but at last check the two sides have yet to have discussions about restructuring his contract. For his part, Rivers says that the team’s potential relocation won’t affect his decision to stay on board one way or the other. Rivers has been willing to adjust his deal in the past to help accommodate the team. In the fall of 2013, he agreed to drop his $12MM base to $7MM while receiving a $5MM signing bonus. That adjustment gave the Bolts an additional $6.7MM in 2013 cap space. A new deal this time, of course, would probably involve additional years.

Corey Liuget is another key player who could leave after 2015. The durable defensive end is set to earn $6.9MM after the team triggered his fifth-year option, but another strong season could make him extra pricey on the open market. PFF pegged him as an above-average 3-4 defensive end in 2014 and the Chargers would probably like to keep the aggressive lineman beyond this upcoming season. An extension for Eric Weddle, who celebrated his 30th birthday in January, is also under consideration.

When Antonio Gates‘ time is through, the Bolts can turn to a very promising heir in Ladarius Green. At 6’6″ and 237 pounds, Green has displayed the agility of a wide receiver with all of the power you’d expect to see from a guy his size. Many thought that 2014 would be Green’s breakout year, but Gates decided to silence the naysayers and maintain his spot as one of the Chargers’ top ball-catchers once again. Still, Gates can only outlast Father Time for so long and San Diego won’t want to risk losing Green after the 2015 season. He’ll earn a base of just $660K this year but a new deal will cost quite a bit more.

The Chargers’ offensive line was hit hard by injuries and only one player appeared in every offensive snap: left guard Chad Rinehart. Thanks to playing more than 85% of the club’s snaps, Rinehart will now earn a base salary of $3.15MM in 2015, up from $2.25MM. The question now is whether they’ll allow him to play out his walk year. Rinehart, 28, never started more than 12 games in any of his five NFL seasons when he re-signed with the club last offseason, but he now has a full season as a starter under his belt. However, the advanced numbers (via Pro Football Focus) are not impressed by his performance last season, rating him as one of the worst guards in the NFL.

With a cap hit of $4MM+, the Chargers could sit down with “Dammit” Donald Brown to see if he’d be willing to give them a bit of a break. They won’t cut him, however, according to comments made by Telesco earlier this offseason.

Overall Outlook:

Given the Broncos’ myriad issues, the AFC West doesn’t look nearly as scary as it once did. The Chargers have some tuning up to do, sure, but with $30MM of cap space and one of the league’s best quarterbacks, there’s no reason to think that they can’t put themselves back on top in short order.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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