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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Falcons

March 2nd, 2015 at 8:42pm CST by Rob DiRe

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Matt Ryan, QB: $19,500,000
  2. Julio Jones, WR: $10,176,000
  3. Sam Baker, T: $7,300,000
  4. William Moore, S: $5,650,000
  5. Roddy White, WR: $5,587,500
  6. Paul Soliai, DT: $4,400,000
  7. Jon Asamoah, G: $4,268,750
  8. Joe Hawley, C: $4,000,000
  9. Tyson Jackson, DT: $3,850,000
  10. Jake Matthews, T: $3,733,977

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 8 overall pick
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Rams in deal for Alec Ogletree.

Other:

Overview:

The Falcons are drafting eighth overall despite being one victory over the Panthers away from playing the Ryan Lindley-led Cardinals at home in the first round of the playoffs. As enticing as that sounds, a quick exit to the Seahawks in the divisional round and the 25th overall pick may not have been worth the win in terms of long-term team building.

I’m not suggesting the Falcons tanked the end of the season — anyone who watched those games would not be surprised they didn’t make the playoffs. I am suggesting they are in a better position to take the next step toward the playoffs because of how their season ended. The Falcons have already taken the most important step towards returning to respectability, and hopefully for them their decisions from a coaching perspective pan out for the best.

Coaching Changes:

The Falcons’ defense has been a mess these past two seasons: they graded 26th in Pro Football Focus ratings in 2013 and 2014 (subscription required) and the traditional statistics place them even worse. In 2013, they finished 27th in both yards allowed per game and points allowed per game. This past year they were also 27th in points, as well as dead last in yards allowed.Dan Quinn

Mike Smith will be remembered mostly for the quick surge to the playoffs that started his tenure and the boneheaded decisions that ended it, but Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has been brought aboard to change all of that. Smith accomplished quite a bit as a defensive assistant with the Ravens from 1999-2002 and coordinator with the Jaguars from 2003-2007, but he was never able to match those accomplishments as Atlanta’s head coach. Quinn’s accomplishments as a coordinator dwarf Smith’s, as he has led the top scoring defense in the NFL for three consecutive years on his way to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances (of course, he was one controversial play away from consecutive victories as well).

Quinn had a pool of talent available to him on the defensive side of the ball in Seattle and while he is a highly touted defensive mind, there must be some reservation over leaving Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Bobby Wagner, and Michael Bennett, among others. The defense was predicated on having safeties that could cover the middle of the field, corners who can handle themselves up the sidelines, and of course a ferocious pass rush.

The Falcons have had an abysmal pass rush for a few years now, and do not have a safety on the roster worthy of even being compared to Thomas or Chancellor. What the Falcons do have is a top flight young corner in Desmond Trufant. Trufant was taken by the Falcons 22nd overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. The 24-year-old graded out as the seventh best cornerback in the NFL as a rookie according to Pro Football Focus, and improved to sixth best in 2014 (subscription).

Trufant is a great star, a player who could possibly match what Sherman did for Quinn, but the team will need to acquire top level talent around him. If not, Quinn will need to be extremely creative in order to put a respectable defense on the field over the next few seasons.

Another very interesting coaching change comes on the other side of the ball, where Kyle Shanahan will be in control of an offense that has been inconsistent under multiple coordinator’s during Smith’s tenure. Shanahan hopes to bring consistency to the unit. Shanahan has a reputation for producing high-level running games in the zone-blocking scheme made famous by his father in Denver.

Shanahan has more recently been known as a very adaptable offensive mind, bringing in the zone-read spread from Baylor during RGIII‘s rookie year in Washington, as well as creating a hugely successful first half of the 2014 campaign with career backup Brian Hoyer as his quarterback. Equally impressive for me was convincing fans and media members that Kirk Cousins was a plausible NFL starter in his time filling in for an injured Griffin.

Key Free Agents:

Kroy Biermann and Osi Umenyiora are the closest things the team has to established pass rushers, and both will be free agents this offseason. This isn’t Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, but the team doesn’t have a huge amount of depth behind them either. Jonathan Massaquoi stepped in and was effective, but he waived by the team and will not be returning in 2015. With both Bierman and Umenyiora unlikely to score huge deals elsewhere, they will at least be considered as options to stay with the team.

Matt Bryant has been a staple in Atlanta since he signed in 2009, and the team has already extending him to a three-year deal worth $8.5MM.

Quinn would like to have safeties with the talent of Thomas and Chancellor, but that just isn’t a realistic goal. For now, Dwight Lowery is better than any other option they have. A solid player, he lacks the explosiveness and athleticism of a dynamic playmaker, but he does a good job of making up for it was smart play and sound football. Losing Lowery would make the secondary worse immediately, but committing to him with starter-level guaranteed money could prevent the team from upgrading the position should the opportunity arise.

Steven Jackson will not be with the team in 2015, leaving Devonta Freeman as the only back on the roster. Jacquizz Rodgers and Antone Smith are both free agents, and both have minimal value on the open market. The Falcons could keep one or both players on very cheap, non-guaranteed contracts. Rodgers is the more experienced of the two, and brings value in the passing game. He has had little impact as a runner, but has shown flashes in the screen game and catching the ball out of the backfield. Neither is on pace to become a lead back in an offense, but Shanahan has found gems out of forgotten running backs before, as have his mentors Mike Shanahan and Gary Kubiak.

The most notable player the Falcons have to make a decision on is Sean Weatherspoon. Weatherspoon was a standout in 2011, his second year in the league, but struggled with injuries and poor performance throughout most of the rest of his tenure with the team. A first-round pick in 2010, he was a defensive captain in 2012, and represents a potential Pro Bowl level performer. Quinn has already went on record saying he hopes the team can retain Weatherspoon. Of course, with the recent struggles, he will also be a risky proposition.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The potential cap casualties that could be released this offseason should be troubling to the Falcons. The team doesn’t have many gigantic cap hits, but of their top ten highest at the end of the 2014 season, it would be easy to argue that seven of those players aren’t worth the money they will make in 2015. In fact, an argument could be made for an eighth player who isn’t worth the money, depending on your feelings about Matt Ryan.

The team has already parted ways with three of those top 10 cap hits. Justin Blalock has been cut by the team in a move that created $3.79MM in cap space this year. The Falcons also save $3.5MM in cap space by releasing Harry Douglas, and roughly an additional $3.75MM by releasing Steven Jackson.

While the Falcons have already done much of the heavy lifting in preparing for the offseason, they still have some options they could consider releasing.

Sam Baker has missed the past two seasons due to injury, and although he performed well in 2012, he had been underwhelming for the Falcons prior to that. He never excelled at left tackle, and while he might be a sturdy option, the emergence of last year’s first-round pick Jake Matthews should allow the team to move in from him. Matthews struggled as a rookie, but is the future at the position. If Baker can make the move to right tackle, it could buy him another year, especially since the team would need to designate him a post-June 1st cut in order to see any savings on the cap in 2015.

Paul Soliai has underperformed, but with so much cap space going into free agency, releasing him without creating additional savings doesn’t make a ton of sense. Designating him a post-June 1st cut would free up minimal space, but probably isn’t worth it considering he still has a chance to bounce back and provide real value on the interior of the defensive line.

William Moore is another player who the team would probably rather keep as opposed to releasing him to free up a mere $700,000 in cap room. Quinn needs safeties to come in and run a defense in the image of the one he ran in Seattle, and the team will likely explore upgrades in free agency. However, unless they can get a legitimate starter over Moore, the Falcons will likely keep him the rotation in 2015.

Roddy White likely has another year in Atlanta, especially after the team moved on from Douglas. However, as a veteran that has struggled with injuries opposite the emergence of Julio Jones‘ superstardom, it will be difficult to imagine his time with the team under that lucrative contract lasting much longer.

Positions Of Need:

The Falcons’ top priority will be finding a pass rusher. Atlanta only managed 22 sacks as a team in 2014, a whopping 32 less than the league leading Bills. They did so without a premier pass rusher, with no player on the defense achieving even five sacks. With all that cap space, the team will likely be looking at all options when it comes to pass rushers. If Justin Houston were to hit the market, the Falcons are among the few who could afford him despite the imperfect scheme fit. It would be unsurprising if the team even looked into Greg Hardy, who could be available at a discount if the division rival Panthers let him walk. Brandon Graham, Brian Orakpo, Jerry Hughes, and Jason Pierre-Paul could also be targets as high upside free agents. Also don’t count out the possibility of Pernell McPhee, who has the versatility desired to fill the type of role Michael Bennett and Chris Clemons have previously held in Quinn’s defenses.

The Falcons could also look to upgrade the offensive line. With Jake Matthews in the fold, I would not expect them to chase after a top tier left tackle, but a solid right tackle could be a great addition. If they don’t think they can find a significant upgrade in Byron Bell or King Dunlap, or a similar player, they could roll back with Gabe Carimi to compete at right tackle. Offensive guard would provide more opportunity for star power. As Mike Iupati and Orlando Franklin look for new homes in 2015, the Falcons provide a tremendous need and an opportunity to get paid.

The team is happy with their wideouts, able to throw Jones and White outside the numbers and attack teams on the sidelines. What was very obviously missing from the offense in 2014 was Tony Gonzalez, who could work the middle of the field like no other player in NFL history. The biggest name on the market is Julius Thomas, an athletic receiving tight end who has been a downfield threat for the Broncos. Jordan Cameron is another big, athletic player, who missed most of 2014 but caught 80 passes the year prior. Neither player is a renowned blocker. A more logical fit would be Owen Daniels, who has a connection to Shanahan from their time with the Texans, and while he isn’t necessarily a downfield threat he would replace some of the veteran savvy fans remember from watching Gonzalez. Niles Paul has some familiarity with Shanahan from Washington, but he saw limited snaps at tight end during that time, so it is unclear how highly he is thought of. Jermaine Gresham is the best blocking tight end at the top of the market, and he although he has yet to unleash his potential as a pass catcher, he was drafted to be a tall downfield threat, a skill he never realized in Cincinnati.

Safety wouldn’t necessarily be the first position of need based on the roster, but it could be addressed as Atlanta could use an upgrade over William Moore and Dwight Lowery. Recently, PFR’s Luke Adams put together an overview of the free agent market for safeties, and to put it simply, it is not pretty. He lists 14 players in his top tier, but he and I both know that Devin McCourty is the only star in the group and he will likely be franchised by the Patriots. For his part, Quinn needs great safety play to replicate what he did in Seattle. Rahim Moore, Ron Parker, and Darian Stewart could be interesting options, and Antrel Rolle might provide a short term upgrade, depending on the learning curve it takes to pick up Quinn’s scheme.

If the Falcons want to address positions like safety, tight end, pass rusher, and offensive line with top flight free agents, they could probably get by at running back with spare parts. Shanahan has a history of getting the most out of previously unremarkable running backs. They have a few guys in the mix, between Rodgers, Freeman, and Smith who could turn their careers around in Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme. They could also target a back late in the draft, where Shanahan made stars out of sixth-round pick Alfred Morris and undrafted free agent Arian Foster, not to mention the production he got out of Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell before All-Pro center Alex Mack was lost for the season in Cleveland last year.

If the team does decide that it has the room to sign a higher profile player, Justin Forsett would likely be at the top of the list. He had tremendous success in Shanahan’s mentor Kubiak’s zone-blocking scheme in 2014, and should make an easy transition to the new offense. Mark Ingram would provide another big name signing, while Ryan Mathews, Stevan Ridley, and Roy Helu could be cheaper options that have some proven ability to be a lead back.

In addition to that long list of needs, adding a linebacker and a defensive tackle wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. The front office will have to prioritize where they spend their money, and will likely have to look to improve through the draft. It isn’t crazy to think that this team could have a quick turnaround with the likes of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones in the fold, but the reality is that it’ll take some time for the Falcons to get back towards the top of the league.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions:

The team will need to extend Julio Jones as soon as possible. Jones has been an otherworldly talent at wide receiver when healthy, but injury concerns going back to his time at Alabama will probably complicate his contract negotiations. Despite his injury issues, he finished with 104 catches and 1,593 yards last season, both good for third in the league despite playing about 200 less snaps and accumulating 22 less targets than Antonio Brown and Demaryius Thomas. The Falcons will almost certainly look to lock Jones up the long term, especially when considering the price they paid to land him in the 2011 draft.

The Falcons have already exercised the fifth-year option on his contract which will keep him with the team in 2015, and they will have a backup plan of franchising him at season’s end to secure him through 2016. This gives the Falcons leverage to work out an extension without the threat of their star receiver truly being able to test the open market. Through four seasons, there is no reason to think Jones will not become one of the highest-paid players at his position. If the Cowboys are able to come to terms with Dez Bryant, that would set the market and make it much easier to project a contract for Jones. I believe it would be unlikely to see either of those two players sign deals as magnanimous as the ones signed by Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson in terms of years and total value, but an average salary of between $10MM and $12MM per year would probably be the floor for Jones’ next deal.

Overall Outlook:

Atlanta was staving off a rebuild for the past few years under Smith, looking for band-aids and big names to put them over the top, and that plan nearly worked as they were a fourth-down pass breakup away from getting to the Super Bowl in 2012. However, they didn’t catch the breaks they needed these past two seasons, and with an abundance of cap space, they have the opportunity to legitimately build up their roster.

Looking at the needs of the roster and assuming Quinn would want to replicate the type of defense he employed in Seattle, it is tough to imagine the Falcons turning this around in only a year or two. The silver lining for the fan base in Atlanta is that unlike other teams that seem to be constantly rebuilding–like the Browns, Rams, and Texans– the Falcons know that if Matt Ryan continues to play at a high level, and with weapons like Jones to throw to, just returning to league average along the offensive line and on defense could catapult them right back into contention.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2015 NFL Franchise/Transition Tags

March 2nd, 2015 at 3:25pm CST by Luke Adams

The deadline to designate franchise or transition players for 2015 has now passed, and six players received tags. Here’s a breakdown of the action:

Franchise players (non-exclusive):

Transition players:

Candidates who didn’t receive tags:

Players who received franchise or transition tags can sign those one-year tenders, if they so choose. They can also negotiate long-term agreements with their own teams, or – once free agency begins next week – with another team. If any tagged player signs an offer sheet with a new club, his current club would have five days to match the offer.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Chiefs

March 2nd, 2015 at 9:42am CST by Sam Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Alex Smith, QB: $15,600,000
  2. Dwayne Bowe, WR: $14,000,000
  3. Tamba Hali, OLB: $11,964,706
  4. Eric Berry, S: $8,357,700
  5. Jamaal Charles, RB: $7,970,835
  6. Sean Smith, CB: $7,750,000
  7. Eric Fisher, T: $6,051,954
  8. Mike DeVito, DL: $5,400,000
  9. Derrick Johnson, LB: $5,250,000
  10. Chase Daniel, QB: $4,800,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 18 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview:

After riding significant upgrades at the head coach and quarterback positions one of the most notable turnaround campaigns in NFL history, the Chiefs took a slight step back in 2014. The franchise that hasn’t made consecutive playoff appearances since the 1995 season saw key defensive injuries/illnesses and historically unproductive wide receiver play submarine its effort to return to the postseason. Although none of Kansas City’s wideouts scored a touchdown, making the Chiefs the first such team to accomplish that feat in 50 years, the Chiefs were in position to make the playoffs as late as the third quarter of their Week 17 win against the Chargers. Ultimately, the Chiefs winning nine games — including home triumphs over both Super Bowl participants — with their anemic WR corps, a spotty offensive line and the unavailability of Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito (both lost for the season in Week 1) and Eric Berry can be considered a success in the right light.

Largely behind the work of former two-time All-Pro Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs ranked 12th in offensive DVOA. Running behiDwayne Bowend an offensive line that saw just one player, free agent center Rodney Hudson, receive a positive grade from Pro Football Focus, Charles continued his pursuit of the all-time yards-per-carry mark. While not flirting with the 6.4 yards he averaged in 2010, Charles gained 5.0 per tote for the second straight year. But the elusive runner only received 206 carries, which were his fewest since becoming a full-time starter in 2010. That figure’s not surprising considering Andy Reid‘s penchant for short passes but one that probably needs to rise as the 28-year-old Charles’ prime winds down. Without a downfield complement, Smith helped unearth a much-needed contributor in Travis Kelce. Fresh off microfracture surgery, the second-year tight end enjoyed a breakout slate that helped the offense immensely. But the Chiefs’ offensive grit in snaring wins despite glaring issues can’t be something they count on; reinforcements are desperately needed to push Kansas City back into contention.

2014 continued a superstar ascent from outside linebacker Justin Houston, who ripped off a 22-sack season and booked himself either a sizable one-year renewal — which the Chiefs did Monday to delay his free agency — or an eventual megadeal that extends his stay in the Midwest for the rest of the decade. Apart from Houston, the Chiefs’ defense couldn’t counter the losses of three quality starters and slunk to 19th in defensive DVOA — 10 spots down from their 2013 mark. Josh Mauga and Allen Bailey both finished with negative Pro Football Focus grades as understudies-turned-starters, with Mauga doing an especially poor Johnson impression, charting as the league’s seventh-worst inside linebacker. Although Tamba Hali, a nine-year Chiefs edge-rusher, was still a strong player last year, he was clearly the complement to Houston and could be on his way out after the Chiefs used a first-round pick to grab Dee Ford to bolster arguably their strongest position. Hali’s cap situation ($11.9MM number with just $2.9MM in dead money, according to OverTheCap, if released) makes his position in Kansas City less certain than the less-reliable Bowe ($14MM number but $9MM in dead money). But the argument can be made that releasing both KC bastions (combined 17 years of Chiefs service) and using the savings to add younger, more cost-effective players at receiver and on the offensive front is the best move rather than continuing to have these performers clog the cap.

Key free agents:

A third-round pick from Georgia during the Scott Pioli regime, Houston fell in the draft due to drug-related concerns but turned in one of the best seasons in the 55-year history of the franchise in surpassing Derrick Thomas‘ team standard of 20 sacks set in 1990. The Chiefs’ predicament now is similar to the one they faced during Thomas’ heyday with two top-tier pass-rushers due high prices. The Carl Peterson-managed Chiefs opted to do what GM John Dorsey‘s Chiefs likely will: keep the A-side rusher. Peterson allowed Neil Smith to depart as a free agent in 1997, breaking up the most notorious pass-rush tandem in team history. The Houston-Hali duo isn’t quite on that level since it’s only had three full seasons together, but the overall talent is similar. Hali accrued seasons of 14 1/2 and 12 1/2 sacks in 2010 and 2011, respectively, before becoming a full-time tandem with Houston — the Thomas in this scenario. He will take priority over Hali, who is 31. Hali also never accumulated three straight seasons with 10+ sacks as Houston’s done in his three years as a full-time starter.

To keep Houston long-term, though, the Chiefs will have to pay him more than any outside linebacker. Clay Matthews‘ $13MM-per-year deal is the standard right now, and Hali’s $11.5MM is second in the league, according to OverTheCap. Houston and Von Miller are likely to raise that ceiling as 26-year-old pass-rushers.

Houston’s franchise tag will cost Kansas City about $13.1MM this year. There will be more players axed in the near future to make this work, and the chances Hudson stays in KC don’t make financial sense. Like Houston, Hudson came from the 2011 draft, but the second-round center took a bit longer to blossom. After sustaining a broken leg just three games into his second season, Hudson bounced back just as the Chiefs did and was a mid-level center in 2013. But last season, Hudson shined by ranking as PFF’s third-best snapper (subscription required) as an above-average run- and pass-blocker despite the injuries and ineptitude flanking him. But as the best available center, Hudson will see his price tag reside outside of the Chiefs’ payable range — likely in the $6MM-$8MM per-year strata. This will be a swift blow to an already-deficient offensive line.

The Chiefs’ No. 3 free agent is probably Ron Parker, who showcased versatility in playing nearly three quarters of the season at free safety. That may lead him to an adequate payday elsewhere. Cut eight times by three different teams, Parker spent two seasons as a nomadic corner and his third as a backup in Kansas City. Parker began his fourth season as a starting corner after beating out Marcus Cooper in training camp but became a key utility man once Berry went down with an ankle injury two months before receiving a diagnosis of Hodgkin’s lymphoma. After making 18 career tackles — all in 2013 — Parker notched 84 as a full-timer. Even though PFF didn’t think too highly of his run-defense skills (subscription required), Parker’s ability to vacillate between roles and be a productive cover man will help drive his price up. Like Hudson, Parker will probably find another team willing to pay more.

A veteran who started for four straight years on zone- and man-based fronts with the Broncos, Ryan Harris stepped in after being relegated to backup duty the past two seasons. He was probably the Chiefs’ second-best lineman despite being thrust into the lineup when third-year starter Jeff Allen joined the season-ending injury brigade in Week 1. Entering his age-30 season, Harris could be seen as a second-tier option for teams in need of a right tackle — a position Harris has played almost exclusively in his eight-year career. The Chiefs may opt to bring him back if his price tag is low enough.

Positions of need:

Reid managed to steer the Eagles to three straight NFC championship games with James Thrash serving as the de facto No. 1 receiver. The early-2000s Eagles proved that a No. 1 wideout isn’t required for sustained success; starters Thrash and Todd Pinkston combined for just three TDs in 2003. That sort of balance showed some in the Chiefs’ passing game last season with the usage of several wideouts with none standing out much in a west coast offense. But the Chiefs rode this workmanlike formula beyond its limits. With an already-cautious passer having no standout threat to beat defenses deep, the offense’s margin for error was slim, and that lack of diversity showed down the stretch. The first team since the 1964 Giants not to have a receiver score serves as an ignominious attachment that will likely stay with the franchise for a while, considering the era adjustments (just two receivers accrued 1,000+ yards in 1964 compared to 23 last season). And it will result in an offseason infusion, through free agency and the draft.

Without their second-round pick in each of Reid’s drafts due to the Smith trade, the Chiefs bypassed college wideout help in both. Last year in what turned out to be a reservoir of receiving help, the Chiefs selected Ford and cornerback Phillip Gaines in the first and third rounds, respectively. Out of necessity, they’ll have to take one this year. But the franchise hasn’t done well in tabbing receivers in the draft or free agency throughout the past three regimes. Since taking Bowe at No. 23 in 2007, the Chiefs selected six wideouts — two in the first two rounds — and just one managed to stick in their rotation: Dexter McCluster. This left a void alongside Bowe for years with a revolving door of sub-par No. 2 receivers signed as free agents, from Chris Chambers to Steve Breaston to Donnie Avery, creating the need for the Chiefs to overpay Bowe in 2013 to ensure some semblance of production outside. Now, they face a future that may not include any proven receivers with a tight cap.

The Jeremy Maclin-to-KC link makes sense due to familiarity, but not much financially. With Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant off the market via franchise tag, Maclin and Randall Cobb, should the Eagles and Packers not tag them, will battle for top billing. The Chiefs do not have the resources to go after him and are not typically big spenders or a sought-after destination. Players like Cecil Shorts, Eddie Royal, or even Kenny Britt make more sense, Royal in particular with his flashes as a catch-and-run threat. Shorts with a quarterback upgrade would help, but should either Cobb or Maclin go off the market via tag or long-term deal, Britt’s price tag may exceed buy-low territory. But much like the offensive line losing Hudson, imagining this current corps sans-Bowe is ugly, with undrafted free agent Albert Wilson as the next-best guy. While Amari Cooper, Kevin White and Devante Parker are probably gone by the top KC picks at No. 18, Arizona State’s Jaelen Strong, Michigan’s Devin Funchess or Dorial Green-Beckham, who would be a risky boom-or-bust pick after his Missouri exit, will likely be available.

With Allen returning and Fisher showing scant promise as a former No. 1 overall selection, the Chiefs’ primary focus up front will be on the interior, where they started one of the worst guard pairings in the league. Zach Fulton struggled as a rookie but should have a chance to compete at right guard again, however, free agent Mike McGlynn will not be back at his left guard post. PFF takes no pleasure in watching McGlynn work. The 29-year-old, who manned left guard after signing a one-year deal in Kansas City in August due to Donald Stephenson‘s suspension, graded as the site’s worst guard for the second time in three years (subscription required). Fisher’s improvement upon switching from right to left tackle wasn’t anything substantial, and this will mark a pivotal season for the scrutinized protector. While not overly talented, Allen at least gives the Chiefs versatility in how they approach the offseason with experience at guard (his first two seasons) and tackle (last year pre-injury).

The Chiefs could take LSU tackle La’el Collins and slide Allen back to guard to maximize the value of their No. 18 pick should this be their preferred option instead of receiver. Inside, Brian De La Puente, who’s played at both center and guard, would be a much cheaper option after serving as a backup with the Bears last year. If the Chiefs view this as a must-upgrade area that is too critical to count on a second-day draft pick to fix, Clint Boling would be a reasonable target at guard. Although getting 2012 draftees Allen and Stephenson back full-time will buoy this operation, Kansas City will address the line through both of the primary player-procurement avenues this offseason.

Berry’s unfortunate diagnosis keeps the secondary in flux. The former first-round pick has one year remaining on the massive rookie contract he signed in the last year of the old CBA, but his career may be over. A landing on the non-football injury list this year could save the Chiefs $5.5MM, according to CBSSports.com’s Joel Corry, and would go over better than simply releasing the popular safety. Complement Husain Abdullah played well in spots in his first season as a starter, and he’ll be counted on to provide more substance with Berry’s future in doubt. Parker’s departure would mean a void here, and considering the Chiefs’ bigger issues up front and out wide, they’re in no position to splurge on a safety. Undrafted free agents Daniel Sorensen and Kelcie McCray are the in-house options, an area from which Abdullah emerged last offseason. The Chiefs need a few of these stories next season since they’ll be unable to plug all of these holes from outside the organization. On his third team in three seasons, McCray was the second-best special-teamer in the NFL last season, per PFF.

DeVito may join Hali and Bowe on the open market as the Chiefs attempt to fix their biggest issues. Despite a strong debut campaign in Kansas City in 2013, DeVito tore his Achilles in Week 1 and is entering his age-31 season. Kansas City can save $4MM by cutting the veteran, and he’s reportedly comfortable with betting on himself elsewhere as opposed to slashing his salary. After spending a first-round pick on Poe and signing Bailey to a $25MM extension last year, the Chiefs could turn to under-the-radar free agent signee Vance Walker to fill DeVito’s spot. A former defensive tackle, Walker showed promise as the season waned as a 3-4 end. Of the Chiefs’ top eight salaries, only four players — Alex Smith, Charles, Sean Smith and Fisher — are locks to return.

Extension Candidates:

One of the Chiefs’ non-issue spots comes thanks to Pioli’s final first-round pick, Poe — the leader in defensive tackle snaps the past two years. Poe finished with a career-high six sacks last season and booked a second straight Pro Bowl trip. The agile 346-pounder has morphed into one of the better 3-4 noses in the game, and as a former first-rounder, Poe’s fifth-year option must be picked up to keep him off the free agent market in 2016. The Chiefs have until May 3 to do so. It would be wise to exercise this with Poe’s strength/agility combination, which resulted in the Conference USA product’s selection at No. 11 overall in 2012, not found in many at his position. Should the Chiefs pick up this option, Poe would earn a 2016 salary that averages the wages of the third- to 25th-highest-paid DTs — approximately $5.7MM based on the current contract values at the position. That figure more than doubles Poe’s $2.8MM 2015 salary, one that didn’t need to be factored into this unique mathematical equation.

Poe’s issue is more pressing due to the deadline residing two months from now, but Sean Smith emerged from the doghouse last season to become the top defensive back on the league’s second-best pass defense. Cited for DUI last summer, Smith worked behind Parker and Cooper at corner during training camp. But the 2013 free agent acquisition shook off that issue and enjoyed his finest season, finishing as PFF’s fifth-best corner. The analytics site also graded the rangy corner as the Chiefs’ second-best defender behind Houston. Smith signed a reasonable three-year deal that gives him $5.5MM per season, but he will receive a third contract before he’s 30. The Chiefs do not have another No. 1 corner option at present, as Cooper regressed and Gaines doesn’t have enough of a sample size yet. They do have a lot of prior commitments, but nothing significant beyond this year in the secondary. KC has more than $69MM (near the league’s middle) of 2016 cap space with players Hali, Berry and Johnson off the books. Since Smith played at a level above where he’s been during most of his career, the Chiefs probably need to see if he can come close to replicating his standout slate before determining an offer value.

Overall outlook:

Alex Smith proved in 2011 he can take a team to the precipice, but he needs plenty of help. Reid’s proven he can extract above-average play from a quarterback once labeled a bust. However, the Chiefs do not have the ancillary parts to complete this equation. The black hole at wideout cannot exist if the Chiefs want Smith to take them back to the playoffs, and the offensive front needs help to go along with improvements from thus-far-underwhelming holdovers. The coaching staff’s helped guide this team to back-to-back explosive starts and infused some stability into what was a fluid, tense situation. But more talent will be required to keep the Chiefs in contention.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2015 NFL Free Agent Market By Position

March 2nd, 2015 at 8:27am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with this year’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ve been taking a closer look at the free agent market for each position over the last few weeks.

Since we started by examining 2015’s free agent quarterbacks in mid-February, the list of free agents has changed a little. Teams have cut players, adding intriguing new names like running back Reggie Bush, wide receiver Brian Hartline, guard Justin Blalock, and defensive lineman Darnell Dockett to the open market. Some players, like quarterback Josh McCown and defensive lineman Ricky Jean-Francois, were cut and have since signed new contracts since we examined the markets for their respective positions.

Still, for the most part, with franchise and transition tags not due until tomorrow, and free agency still more than a week away for players with expiring contracts, the lists below reflect this year’s market. For each position, we broken down players into unrestricted and restricted free agents, identifying the top-tier UFAs at each spot.

Here’s the full list of our breakdowns of the 2015 free agent market by position:

Offense:

Defense:

Special teams:

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Cardinals

March 1st, 2015 at 5:22pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Patrick Peterson, CB: $14,791,200
  2. Calais Campbell, DL: $14,750,000
  3. Carson Palmer, QB: $14,500,000
  4. Larry Fitzgerald, WR: $10,850,000
  5. Jared Veldheer, T: $8,500,000
  6. Daryl Washington, ILB: $6,500,000
  7. Jerraud Powers, CB: $5,350,000
  8. Lyle Sendlein, C: $4,275,000
  9. Jonathan Cooper, G: $3,967,909
  10. Drew Stanton, QB: $3,866,668

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 24 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

For the second straight season, Bruce Arians and the Cardinals were surprise contenders, but unlike the 2013 season, when Arizona won 10 games only to finish outside the playoff picture, the Cardinals managed 11 wins, earning a posLarry Fitzgeraldtseason berth via a wild card spot. Arians won Coach of the Year (for the second time in three years), and both he and general manager Steve Keim inked contract extensions that will keep the pair in in Phoenix through 2019.

Of course, Arizona didn’t win that aforementioned playoff game, losing to the Panthers largely due to the absence of a viable quarterback. Just two days after signing a three-year extension, Carson Palmer tore his ACL, leaving backup Drew Stanton to take over in the middle of Week 10. After Stanton then went down in Week 15, journeyman Ryan Lindley was forced to take over, and Arizona never recovered.

The Cardinals thrived on the other side of the ball, where despite numerous injuries and a yearlong suspension of linebacker Daryl Washington, the defense finished seventh in DVOA under coordinator Todd Bowles, who has since taken a head coaching position with the Jets.

Key Free Agents

Most of Arizona’s top free agents reside on defense, where Keim has made a habit of adding low-cost veterans to supplement a talented core. One such addition was cornerback Antonio Cromartie, who signed a one-year, $4MM pact with Arizona after being released by the Jets. The 30-year-old played more than 1,000 snaps in the desert in 2014, and he looks to be line for a multi-year deal. Keim indicated that the club would like to-resign Cromartie, but allowed that he’s likely to hit free agency. A reunion with Bowles and the Jets is certainly on the table, especially if New York loses out on Darrelle Revis.

At 27, Dan Williams will hit free agency at a younger age than Cromartie, and he’s coming off a better season, having finished No. 14 among 81 qualified defensive tackles per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Williams is part of a loaded interior defensive line class, which also boasts Ndamukong Suh, Terrance Knighton, and Nick Fairley, among others. But aside from Knighton, who’s spent his career in a 4-3 defense, and B.J. Raji, who seems likely to return to the Packers, Williams is the only true nose tackle available on the open market. He should find many offers once free agency begins, and it’s possible he’ll price himself out of Arizona’s range.

Tommy Kelly is seven years older than Williams, but his 2014 production showed no hint of an advanced age. After being released by the Patriots at cutdowns, Kelly signed a one-year deal with the Cardinals that netted him less than $1MM. The veteran defensive lineman ended up playing more than 700 snaps, and performed well. But given his age, he shouldn’t command too much of a market, meaning Arizona could have a chance to bring him back.

Two linebackers — Sam Acho and John Abraham — hit free agency at very different points in their respective careers. The 27-year-old Acho played nearly 500 snaps and held up well, especially against the run, and could be a nice find for a LB-needy club in free agency; the link between he and Bowles is obvious, but Acho would make sense for the Jets. Abraham, meanwhile, was placed on injured reserve in September after doctors told him to sit out a year following a concussion. He’ll be 37 in May, and it appears as though retirement is the best option for him given his head injuries.

On offense, the Cardinals have just one pending free agent — guard Paul Fanaika — who played more than 400 snaps. He was underwhelming in 2014, placing No. 71 among 78 guard qualifiers per PFF. The free agent guard class recently saw some newcomers, as Todd Herremans, Justin Blalock, and Charlie Johnson were all released in recent days, so Arizona can probably find an upgrade if they’d like. It’s probably time to give 2013 first-round pick Jonathan Cooper a chance to start, so Fanaika shouldn’t return regardless.

Tight end Rob Housler saw limited duty as the backup to John Carlson, and wasn’t overly effective when he did play. The Cardinals spent a second-rounder on Troy Niklas in 2014, so I’d expect them to bid farewell to Housler, especially given they’ve been linked to free agent James Casey.

Possible Cap Casualties

The Cardinals have already been among the most active teams in advance of the new league year, releasing both Darnell Dockett and Ted Ginn Jr., and agreeing to a new deal with Larry Fitzgerald that will keep the veteran receiver in Arizona for the next two years. Still, the club has only about $14.3MM in cap space, so further moves could be coming.

Center Lyle Sendlein was possibly the worst player on the Cardinals’ offense, as he finished the year with a -31.3 PFF grade. Soon to be 31, Sendlein is scheduled to count $4.275MM in 2015, the final year of his deal. Releasing Sendlein would save Arizona $3.15MM, and although the free agent center market isn’t strong, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team seek out an upgrade on the open market or via the draft.

Stanton could also be on the chopping block, as he’s due to count more than $3.8MM next season — Arizona would save $3.2MM by cutting him. But given the uncertainty regarding Palmer and his recovery, and the team’s utter lack of QB options elsewhere on the roster, Stanton will probably be safe.

Carlson, entering the final season of a two-year contract, was especially ineffective in 2014, struggling in nearly every aspect of the game — he was PFF’s third-worst TE, and his run-blocking was particularly sub-par. The Cardinals could clear nearly his entire cap figure by releasing him, and given their cap situation, having another $1.6MM to work with could be appetizing.

Positions Of Need

Without question, the Cardinals are a team set up to win now. With a 36-year-old quarterback, and an aging receiver locked in for two seasons, Arizona has a short window to remain a contender, so free agency decisions will need to focus on the short-term. Keim & Co. have done a wonderful job with under-the-radar signings in the past, and with less than $15MM to work with, the club will have to hope it can do the same again.

Offensive line should be the key area of concern heading into the new league year. Arizona added left tackle Jared Veldheer on a five-year deal last offseason, and he was certainly a stabilizing presence on the blind side. However, he was the only effective player along the Cards’ front five, as every other position was filled by a below-average lineman. If Sendlein isn’t retained, center could a priority, but as mentioned, there aren’t a ton of options at the position. Instead, the Cardinals could focus on guard — one spot could be handed to Cooper, with the other being filled by a free agent. The likes of Mike Iupati and Orlando Franklin are too expensive, but someone like Blalock could be a nice addition on a short-term deal.

At running back, Andre Ellington is a talented receiving option, but he might not be cut out to be a featured back. Luckily, RB is a position flush with free agent possibilities. If the Cardinals can’t land a big name like DeMarco Murray or (if he’s released/traded) Adrian Peterson, they can look at some lower-tier options, instead. Ryan Mathews would make a solid pairing with Ellington, although both share injury concerns. Mark Ingram could make sense for Arizona, or the club could take a chance on Stevan Ridley on a one-year, “prove-it” deal. In the draft, the Cardinals could look at either Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon in the first round, or wait until later rounds to find a capable back.

If Cromartie leaves via free agency, the Cardinals could also have a hole to fill at CB. If the club wants to add another veteran to team with Patrick Peterson, someone like Chris Culliver or Brandon Flowers could be an option (although the latter might be a tad too expensive). Arizona could choose to invest in a younger player such as Davon House or Buster Skrine, but I’d guess that they’ll take the same approach they did with Cromartie, and wait for a veteran to fall into their lap. That could be Flowers if his market fails to develop, but 32-year-old Tramon Williams seems like the ideal target for the win-now Cardinals.

That strategy — waiting out the market — is how I expect Arizona to approach free agency as whole. The club has a history of stretching a dollar, especially on defense, and though Bowles is no longer around to develop talent, the Cardinals simply don’t have the cap space to target top-tier free agents. Adding complementary players to fill out an already strong core seems like the best avenue for Arizona.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The Cardinals already made a move to lower Fitzgerald’s 2015 cap hit, and they could do the same with other players in the hopes of clearing out cap space. Palmer, for example, has a $9.5MM roster bonus due in March which could be converted into a signing bonus, lowering the QB’s cap charge. Calais Campbell and Veldheer could be candidates for a similar restructuring.

Entering the final year of his rookie deal, Michael Floyd is a candidate to have his fifth-year option picked up. The 25-year-old is coming off a down year in which he caught just 47 passes for 841 yards, but he finished with over 1,000 yards in 2013. He’s always shown flashes of talent, and given that Fitzgerald won’t be around for the long haul, I’d expect the Cardinals to exercise the option.

Washington’s contract status is unclear — some of his contract guarantees probably will void due to his suspension, but it’s hard to speculate what the Cardinals might do with him given that we don’t know the specifics of his deal. Speaking at the combine, Arians said he doesn’t “even think about” Washington. We’ll probably see some sort of resolution with Washington in the near future.

Overall Outlook

The Cardinals could be viewed as a litmus test used to separate optimists from pessimists. The glass half-full perspective: Arizona has won 21 games during the past two years, has a solid head coach and front office in place, and has a record of succeeding in player acquisition. Glass half-empty? The Cardinals are counting on an aging quarterback coming off a second torn ACL, have limited cap space, reside in a tough division, and lost perhaps their best tactician (Bowles) to another job. The 2015 offseason will go long way in determining how that pendulum swings.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Market For Cornerbacks

March 1st, 2015 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with this year’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ve been taking a closer look at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to cornerbacks. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Maxwell is widely considered to be the top option on the cornerback market, and looks like a good bet to land the biggest contract of the group this month. However, suitors should approach with some caution when considering the Seattle corner, despite the fact that he played a key role for the league’s best secondary. It’s worth noting that the Seahawks locked up all the other starting defensive backs to extensions, but seem willing to let Maxwell walk. Additionally, while Pro Football Focus grades aren’t the be-all, end-all for player evaluation, Maxwell earned just a -0.2 mark in 2014 (subscription required). Besides Tillman, who missed the season with a triceps injury, only Skrine’s PFF grade was lower than that, among this group.

Of those players who graded above Maxwell in 2014, Culliver and Jackson are a couple worth watching. Both corners are entering their age-27 seasons, and ranked in PFF’s top 15 at the position in ’14. Quarterbacks completed just 50.7% of their passes when throwing into Culliver’s coverage, and Jackson limited opposing signal-callers to a passer rating of 74.2 — for comparison’s sake, players like Geno Smith and Brian Hoyer had better overall marks.

Teams targeting cornerbacks in free agency will have to strongly consider how those players will fit in their systems. The 5’9″ Flowers struggled mightily in 2013 while playing for a Chiefs defense that required him to match up in press-man coverage with bigger, more physical receivers, but had a nice bounce-back season in 2014 playing a different style of defense in San Diego.

There are also a couple instances in this group where multiple corners from one team are eligible for free agency, and the Packers and 49ers will have to decide which of their guys they want to retain. Having already invested heavily in Sam Shields, Green Bay seems unlikely to bring back both House and Williams, and the same can be said for the 49ers, who may not have the flexibility to re-sign Culliver and Cox.

Other unrestricted options:

There’s certainly a drop-off from the first tier to most of these players, but for a team looking for some value in a depth signing, there are a few options worth considering.

When Thurmond made the move from the Seahawks to the Giants a year ago, he looked poised to take a larger role, but a torn pectoral prematurely ended his season. He’ll come at a discount this season, and could be a solid No. 3 or 4 corner. Jimmy Wilson took on a greater role in Miami last season, starting 13 games and playing both cornerback and safety. Although he struggled a little at corner, his versatility is appealing.

The results weren’t always pretty, but Fletcher, Newman, Wright, and Tarell Brown all logged more than 800 defensive snaps for their respective clubs in 2014, and with the exception of Brown’s Raiders, all those teams finished above .500. That doesn’t mean they should necessarily be relied upon as starters again, but if they start out in a reduced role and are forced to take on more snaps, at least they have the experience.

Restricted FAs:

Moore is the standout name in this group, and the only player who saw action in more than half of his team’s defensive snaps. The Cowboys obviously have a few more noteworthy free-agents-to-be to deal with, but I don’t expect them to overlook Moore. He’s the best – and perhaps the only – candidate in this group to receive a one-year RFA tender.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

PFR Originals: 2/22/15 – 3/1/15

March 1st, 2015 at 3:15pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco 49ers

February 28th, 2015 at 9:07pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Colin Kaepernick, QB: $15,265,753
  2. Aldon Smith, OLB: $9,754,000
  3. Patrick Willis, ILB: $8,268,000
  4. NaVorro Bowman, ILB: $7,654,000
  5. Ahmad Brooks, OLB: $7,055,000
  6. Vernon Davis, TE: $6,967,920
  7. Anquan Boldin, WR: $6,909,000
  8. Justin Smith, DE: $6,436,668
  9. Joe Staley, T: $6,400,000
  10. Stevie Johnson, WR: $6,025,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 15 overall pick
  • Acquired fourth-round pick from Broncos in deal for Cody Latimer.
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Colts in deal for Cam Johnson.
  • Owe fourth-round pick to Bills in deal for Stevie Johnson.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Dolphins for Jonathan Martin.

Other:

Overview:

The 2014 season was a massive letdown for the 49ers, whose recent stretch near the top of the NFL standings surprisingly came to a halt. San Francisco was expected to contend last year after a three-year stretch from 2011-13 that included a combined 36-11-1 regular season record, three straight NFC championship games, and a Super Bowl appearance. Instead, thanks primarily to an ineffectual offense, the 49ers finished an uninspiring 8-8 and missed the postseason for the first time since 2010. That spurred the conclusion of a coaching era and, as the offseason progresses, will surely prompt noteworthy roster modifications.

Coaching Changes:

The 49ers were mired in an eight-year playoff drought when they named Jim Harbaugh their head coach in 2011. The team went an embarrassing 46-82 USATSI_8331329_168380616_lowresand mustered just one .500 season during that time frame. Harbaugh’s arrival brought dramatic improvement in the on-field product, as he helped guide the Niners to a tremendous 44-19-1 regular-season mark and three playoff berths. However, his relationship with CEO Jed York and general manager Trent Baalke deteriorated over time and became particularly discordant in 2014. That culminated in December with the end of the coach’s four-year stint in the Bay Area.

After interviewing several outside candidates, the Niners hired from within and chose longtime assistant Jim Tomsula to succeed Harbaugh. The 46-year-old Tomsula had run the 49ers’ defensive line since 2007 and was their interim head coach for one game back in 2010 (a 38-7 win over the Cardinals).

Tomsula stayed in the organization to replace Harbaugh’s departed coordinators, Greg Roman (offense) and Vic Fangio (defense), with Geep Chryst and Eric Mangini.

Chryst, San Francisco’s quarterbacks coach the past four years, has previous experience as a coordinator – he oversaw the Chargers’ offense from 1999-2000. Although Mangini was an offensive consultant with the 49ers in 2013 and their tight ends coach last season, most of his coaching career has been spent on defensive staffs.

Key Free Agents:

The start of the free agent period on March 10 could bring about the exits of three players who have long been 49ers offensive pillars — running back Frank Gore, left guard Mike Iupati and wide receiver Michael Crabtree.

Gore, the longest-tenured member of the trio, has spent all 10 of his pro seasons in San Francisco. Even at 31, he finished last year ranked ninth in the league in rushing (1,106 yards) on a respectable per-carry average of 4.3. Baalke has indicated that the 49ers want Gore back for his age-32 season. “I talked to him the other day on the phone and we’re going to do what we can to get him back as a 49er,” Baalke said earlier this month, according to the 49ers’ official website. Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com has reported that Gore, who made $6.45MM last season, is seeking $4MM per annum and that people around the league believe San Francisco is the likeliest team to meet his asking price.

Unfortunately for the 49ers, chances are they’ll have a harder time retaining Iupati. The three-time Pro Bowler is primed to become one of the NFL’s top-paid guards this offseason, and, with little cap space to work with, the 49ers seemingly aren’t in the right position to outbid the market for the 27-year-old’s services.

Then there’s Crabtree, the only one of the group who is coming off a subpar season (698 yards, 10.3 YPC). Tomsula recently said he would “absolutely” like Crabtree back, but both the Sacramento Bee’s Matt Barrows and Bleacher Report’s Jason Cole (video link) have reported the six-year veteran will probably end up elsewhere.

As is the case on offense, the 49ers’ defense also has important pieces scheduled to hit free agency. Those defenders happen to be both of the Niners’ starting cornerbacks from last season, Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox. The pair excelled in 2014, combining for nine interceptions and ranking well above average in Pro Football Focus’ grading system (subscription required) — Culliver was 14th and Cox 35th out of 108 qualifying corners. San Francisco is going to have difficulty keeping both, per Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com, and the one who’s expected to cost less (Cox) has a better chance of returning.

Positions Of Need:

The 49ers’ offense was the main culprit behind their woes last season, as mentioned earlier. The unit ran the ball effectively, but averaged a meager 19.1 points per game (25th in the league) and its Colin Kaepernick-led passing attack finished 30th in yardage and 22nd in Football Outsiders’ rankings. To Kaepernick’s credit, he greatly aided San Francisco’s ground game with 639 yards, second only to the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson among quarterbacks. The four-year veteran was merely middle of the pack in most relevant passing statistics, though.

In order for Kaepernick to realize his vast potential, the 49ers are going to have to surround him with more weapons. It starts at receiver, where Baalke has already acknowledged that the 49ers are seeking downfield threats. Further, the 49ers’ receivers coaches were among the few members of their staff who attended the recent scouting combine.

Given their dearth of cap space, the 49ers could have trouble filling their receiver void via free agency. That means they probably won’t be able to take advantage of a deep class of established wideouts, which would make drafting one with their first-rounder – the 15th overall selection – a strong possibility. The 49ers need to find a complement to (and potential long-term replacement for) 34-year-old Anquan Boldin, and they might land one in DeVante Parker (Louisiville) or Kevin White (West Virginia) with their top pick.

In the event the 49ers don’t take a receiver at 15, speedsters like Phillip Dorsett (Miami), Devin Smith (Ohio State) and Sammie Coates (Auburn) are potential targets who could be available after the first round. There’s also Dorial Green-Beckham, whom Bucky Brooks of NFL.com sees as a possible fit for San Francisco. At 6-foot-5, 237 pounds, Green-Beckham has elite size to accompany 4.49 speed. Despite that enticing combination, he might drop in the draft because of past off-field transgressions – ones that led to his dismissal from Missouri’s football team in 2014.

Other than receiver, San Francisco doesn’t have any glaring offensive holes. If Gore leaves, the 49ers have an in-house option in Carlos Hyde, a second-round pick last April who averaged 4.0 yards per carry as a rookie and scored four touchdowns. Replacing Iupati would be a tougher task, but another player from last year’s draft class (third-rounder Brandon Thomas) would have the inside track to take the reins at left guard. The 24-year-old Thomas was thought to be better than a third-round prospect before tearing his ACL a few weeks prior to the draft.

Defensively, the Niners were terrific last season, ranking fifth in both yardage and DVOA and 10th in points allowed. Ideally, they’ll be even better in 2015 with full seasons from brand-name linebackers Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith. Those three combined to miss 35 games last season (Bowman lost all 16 because of a torn ACL and MCL), but they’ve also combined to make 10 Pro Bowls in the past. In 2013, when each of them played the majority of the season, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked Bowman and Willis first and third, respectively, among 3-4 ILBs, while the site graded Smith as the fifth-best 3-4 OLB. Having those three and a pair of outstanding second-year men in Chris Borland and Aaron Lynch gives the 49ers an embarrassment of riches at linebacker.

The prospect of a deep and dominant linebacking corps is certainly a plus, but the 49ers do have defensive needs. Those needs begin along the line, where one end (Ray McDonald) has already been released and another (Justin Smith) is considering retirement. Although McDonald ranged from good to great during his eight-year 49ers career, the team cut him in December because of poor off-field conduct. Smith, 36 in September, has missed just two games since joining the Niners in 2008. His advanced age aside, Smith was still a crucial part of San Francisco’s defense last season. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) agreed, ranking him as the league’s 11th-best 3-4 end in 2014.

The 49ers have already tried to combat some of their D-line issues by bringing back one of their former players, Ricky Jean-Francois. The Colts released the six-year veteran and four-year Niner earlier this month, but he chose to sign with Washington. Regardless, it’s clear that the 49ers are aware of their line problems. They’ll likely continue trying to address them as the offseason moves forward.

San Francisco’s other defensive questions lie at cornerback, given the nebulous statuses of Culliver and Cox. On the bright side, the secondary will get Tramaine Brock back at full strength next season. Brock broke out in 2013 with five interceptions as a nickel back, which led to the 49ers giving him a four-year, $16 million extension, and then missed 13 of 16 games last season with toe and hamstring injuries. Brock’s return will be a boon to a pass defense that managed to finish 10th without him. Brock’s comeback won’t mean as much if both Culliver and Cox walk, obviously, but even if the Niners can only keep one of the two, they should still be in decent shape at corner.

Possible Cap Casualties/Contract Restructurings:

Odds are the 49ers will release Ahmad Brooks this offseason, considering his recent below-average play and the team’s wealth at the linebacker position. If the 49ers drop Brooks on June 1, they’ll save $4.71MM on next season’s cap.

Receiver Stevie Johnson‘s roster spot is also in jeopardy, even though San Francisco is weak at wideout. Moving on from Johnson, who caught just 35 passes last season, would avail north of $6MM in cap room for the 49ers.

Regardless of whom they part ways with, the 49ers should look to restructure some of their veterans’ deals this offseason. Aldon Smith, Willis and Bowman are scheduled to have the second-, third- and fourth-highest cap hits on the team next season. Combined, they’ll take up roughly $25MM. Both Willis and Bowman have restructured their contracts in the past to create spending space for the club, so there’s precedent with both of them.

Extension Candidates:

The 49ers will have decisions to make regarding the futures of Aldon Smith, Vernon Davis and Alex Boone in the coming year. All three are scheduled for free agency in 2016.

Smith has demonstrated immense ability during his four-year career, totaling 44 sacks in 50 games. Unfortunately, the four-year veteran’s on-field accomplishments have come with serious off-field negatives. The latest, an April 2014 incident between Smith and TSA agent at the Los Angeles Airport, led to a nine-game suspension for the 25-year-old last season. Despite Smith’s problems, Baalke recently referred to him as “a great young man.” Smith will count $9.75MM against San Francisco’s cap this year. Whether Smith is in Baalke’s long-term plans is likely to depend on how he fares both on and off the field in 2015. If all goes well, Smith will have a strong chance to become one of the highest-paid 3-4 OLBs in the league. At the moment, Green Bay’s Clay Matthews has the richest contract at the position in both total and annual value ($66MM and $13.2MM, respectively). Matthews signed that deal in 2013 as a four-year vet with 42.5 sacks in 58 games.

As for Davis and Boone, both expressed dissatisfaction in regards to their contracts during holdouts last year. Davis skipped the team’s voluntary and mandatory minicamps, while Boone sat out the entire summer and reported to the 49ers a week before the regular season started.

The 31-year-old Davis is just two years removed from a 13-touchdown showing, but 2014 was his worst season since 2008. He amassed a paltry 26 catches with all-time lows in yardage and YPC, while his two TDs tied a career worst. Even if he bounces back in 2015, the odds of San Francisco giving Davis a sizable contract extension don’t seem high. Although he has been among the top tight ends in the league for the better part of his nine-year career, it’s fair to wonder if Davis’ best days are behind him.

Unlike Davis, it’s clear Boone has plenty left in the tank. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rated the 27-year-old as the 17th-best guard in the league in 2014 – just three spots behind Iupati – out of 78 qualifiers. Boone will make $3.74MM in 2015, the final year of his contract. That’s just below the value of the 10th-highest-paid right guard in the league (Washington’s Chris Chester at $4MM). In all likelihood, an extension for Boone would mean signing him to a deal that would at least get him into the top 10 in total value, yearly value and guaranteed money. With Iupati’s time as a Niner on the brink of ending, San Francisco would be wise to get Boone locked up at some point in the next year. For a team that has prioritized running the ball, losing its two outstanding guards in a 12-month span would be quite a setback.

Overall Outlook:

Despite the failures of last season and the resulting coaching change, the 49ers are still more talented than the majority of teams around the league. Because of that, they’ll have a shot to return to the playoffs in 2015 – particularly if Kaepernick rebounds and Tomsula doesn’t end up drowning in his new role. Nevertheless, the ultra-competitive NFC West certainly won’t make life easy for Kaepernick, Tomsula or the rest of the 49ers.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Lions

February 27th, 2015 at 8:21pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Calvin Johnson, WR: $20,558,000
  2. Matthew Stafford, QB: $17,721,250
  3. Stephen Tulloch, LB: $5,800,000
  4. Glover Quin, S: $5,742,500
  5. Golden Tate, WR: $5,350,000
  6. Ezekiel Ansah, DE: $5,071,228
  7. DeAndre Levy, LB: $4,500,000
  8. Jason Jones, DE: $3,983,334
  9. Brandon Pettigrew, TE: $3,800,000
  10. Joique Bell, RB: $3,500,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 23 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview:

With 23 free agents and only $18.44MM worth of cap space, the Lions will have to make some tough choices in the coming months. Much of the attention, if not all of the attention, has been centered on Ndamukong Suh, and for good reason. Not only is Suh one of the most feared defensive linemen in the NFL, but he is the giant domino that will determine how the rest of the offseason goes. The Lions badly want to keep him, of course, but they also know that their “big three” of Suh, Matthew Stafford, and Calvin Johnson is eating up a tremendous portion of their cap room.

Key Free Agents:

Of course, this list starts with none other than Suh. The Lions are working hard on a new contract for the dominant defensive tackle, and GM Martin Mayhew remains confident that the two sides will work something out. It’s always good to have confidence, but those of us on the outside aren’t sure how things are going to work out. Suh’s camp has been vocal about their desire for the biggest contract possible and his team let the world know last season that he wouldn’t mind joining up with the Giants or Jets, where he could maximize his marketability. Suh might also look towards the Seahawks and West Coast teams, as he is a Pacific Northwest native.

The Lions have the franchise tag at their disposal, of course, but that would set them back $26.9MM, even higher than last season’s $22MM salary. As much as they want to keep the former No. 2 overall pick, the near-$27MM figure would represent more than 19% of the Lions’ overall salary cap if they exercise this option. On top of that, the Lions will also be saddled with the $9MM+ in dead money from his rookie contract that will count against the cap. The question isn’t whether the Lions want Suh back — it’s whether they can get anything of substance done in free agency if they pay him mega-bucks, either via the franchise tag or through a long-term pact. Back in December, PFR’s Luke Adams explored the Lions’ different options, including allowing him to walk. Ndamukong Suh

Of course, Suh isn’t the Lions’ only important free agent defensive tackle. Nick Fairley is also scheduled to hit the open market and keeping both players could prove to be challenging. After posting a top-20 season for defensive tackles, per PFF (subscription required), Fairley figures to draw a lot of interest. It also helps that he was found not guilty on a DUI charge, which would have guaranteed a suspension for the first two games of the 2015 season (that could still happen, but the chances have been reduced dramatically). In theory, Fairley could be a franchise candidate if the tag is not used on Suh, but it’s hard to see the Lions wanting to pay him a top salary just a year after turning down his fifth-year option, valued at just $5.5MM. At the time, Detroit didn’t know that Fairley would go from being an inconsistent talent to one of the better DTs in the league. In 2014, Fairley was playing at perhaps his highest level yet before a sprained MCL and PCL in Week 8 ended his season. Despite his limited amounted of snaps (297), he still placed as the league’s 18th-best DT per PFF and his absence on the Detroit defense was very noticeable. Our own Dallas Robinson took a detailed look at Fairley earlier this month.

Defensive end George Johnson tried to make the case that he should be classified as an unrestricted free agent this offseason, but his battle fell short when the NFLPA eventually saw things Detroit’s way. Now a restricted free agent, it seems more likely that he’ll wind up staying put in Detroit. The 27-year-old carved out a role for himself as the preferred bookend off of the bench in 2014 and he should continue that role next season.

Beyond Suh and Fairley, another defensive tackle will be eligible to hit the open market in C.J. Mosley. Mosley isn’t as high of a priority as the other two, of course, but he did do a respectable job filling in for Fairley last season while he was sidelined.

Earlier this month, Mayhew said that he hopes to bring back cornerback Rashean Mathis for the 2015 season, citing the veteran’s versatility as a major positive. Mathis earned the minimum salary last season so it’ll be interesting to see if Detroit will go well beyond that to retain him, if necessary.

The Lions had a revolving door at the left guard position for years before Rob Sims came aboard in 2010 and started 80 straight games. Despite that durability, Sims has been banged up over the last couple of years and his production has declined as a result. Sims did rebound from a slow start in 2014, however, as he earned a positive grade from Pro Football Focus in every game from Week 11 onward. The Lions already informed long-time center Dominic Raiola they don’t plan on bringing him back in 2015, so it remains to be seem if Sims will be asked back. For what it’s worth, Sims wants to stay in Detroit.

Kickers aren’t often featured in the “Key Free Agents” section of our Offseason Outlooks, but the Lions learned the hard way how important a kicker can be this season. After running through two shaky legs in Nate Freese and Alex Henery, the Lions added Matt Prater mid-season and while he wasn’t flawless, he did hold down the position. Prater has been one of the most dominant kickers in the league over the last few years and figures to draw serious interest from any team with a vacancy there. He expressed a desire to stay with the Lions and the club met with his reps in Indianapolis earlier this month.

While they’re not marquee names, Mayhew recently mentioned quarterback Dan Orlovsky and long snapper Don Muhlbach as two under-the-radar potential free agents that the team was optimistic about re-signing, and he has since locked up Muhlbach — Orlovsky could be next. Speaking of Matthew Stafford’s understudies, Kellen Moore won’t be offered an RFA tender but Detroit would be interested in bringing him back.

Positions Of Need:

With Suh and Fairley potentially hitting the open market, the Lions could have a major need at defensive tackle. No, you won’t find another Suh on the open market, but this year’s crop features names like Terrance Knighton, Henry Melton, and Jared Odrick. Besides Suh, you won’t find a more proven free agent DT on the right side of 30 than the run-stuffing Knighton. The Broncos standout has ranked as the 12th- and ninth-best defensive tackle the past two years, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Melton is also an interesting name and he was playing some solid football for the Cowboys in 2014 before he was placed on IR. In the draft, the Lions could take a hard look at guys like Florida State’s Eddie Goldman, Ohio State’s Michael Bennett, and Texas’ Malcom Brown.

The Lions will be in the market for a running back after parting ways with Reggie Bush, who will celebrate his 30th birthday in the coming days. Detroit has Joique Bell on its roster, but the team probably isn’t looking to put a giant workload on his shoulders for 16 games. In theory, the Lions could take a tailback at No. 23 and go for the likes of Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley. However, I’d expect them to instead target a back in the later rounds. The Lions already have Theo Riddick in-house to help split the workload with Bell, and George Winn also figures to see some carries. The Lions shed a big name in Bush, but they don’t need a star to take his spot on the roster.

The Lions might have some work to do on their offensive line this offseason. If the aforementioned Sims is not retained, Detroit will be in the market for a left guard. Meanwhile, they have a starting right tackle under contract in LaAdrian Waddle, but it’d be hard to count on him staying healthy given his track record over the last couple of seasons. The Lions could roll with Waddle and plug in backup Cornelius Lucas (who made three starts in 2014) as needed, but they would probably prefer to give Stafford more peace of mind when in the pocket. The Lions won’t bring Raiola back next season, but understudy Travis Swanson is ready to move into the starting center role for 2015.

Possible Cap Casualties:

2014, of course, was a year to forget for linebacker Stephen Tulloch. The linebacker’s season ended after just three games when he tore his ACL while celebrating a sack. While he was out, Tahir Whitehead filled in capably, and that leaves the Lions with an interesting choice this offseason. Detroit could continue to roll with Whitehead at middle linebacker and carve out some space by parting ways with Tulloch. The 30-year-old is slated to count $5.8MM against the cap next season. Whitehead, meanwhile, costs just $713K.

If George Johnson is retained, the Lions could gain a bit more breathing room by dropping Jason Jones. Jones is slated to count for $3.98MM against the cap in 2015, but the Lions could save $3.15MM by showing him the door. Beyond Johnson, the Lions have more options at bookend in Darryl Tapp (free agent), Devin Taylor, and Larry Webster.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Would Calvin Johnson re-work his deal to help re-sign Suh? Bell certainly hopes he’ll be open to it. “We’ll have to talk to Calvin, see if he can do something,” Bell said in early February. “We just need him back. Come back, Suh.” Recently, Megatron said that he’ll do whatever he has to do to keep the All-Pro defensive tackle in Detroit, as Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press writes. At present, Johnson is scheduled to count for $20.5MM against the cap in 2015. He has re-worked his contract for the Lions in the past, having restructured his deal in 2013 to free up $3.5MM of cap space.

While there’s uncertainty about a couple of spots on the Lions’ offensive line, there’s no concern when it comes to left tackle, where Riley Reiff is entrenched. At last check, Detroit is undecided about the fifth-year option for offensive tackle but it’s possible the club will look into an extension to keep him beyond that point. Linebacker DeAndre Levy has been a good value on his rookie contract but he’ll be a free agent after he earns $3.5MM in 2015. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Lions lock their starting weakside linebacker up long before another team gets the chance to steal him away. Levy graded out as the third-best outside linebacker in a 4-3 scheme according to the advanced metrics at PFF.

Overall Outlook:

Any way you slice it, retaining Suh will cost the Lions a whole lot of flexibility. However, the Lions have fewer holes than most of the league’s contending teams and they might just bite the bullet at the cost of playing a little thin in some areas.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Market For Safeties

February 27th, 2015 at 8:32am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’re taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to safeties. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

For many of the positions we’ve already examined, the top-tier free agent options expected to be available this winter are few and far between, or entirely non-existent. That’s not the case at safety, however. There aren’t a ton of elite players here – McCourty may be the only one, and he’s still a candidate to be franchised – but there are plenty of guys capable of being solid starters, and several with some upside.

The elder statesmen in this group are Adams, Landry, and Rolle. The Giants safety saw his Pro Football Focus grade (subscription required) fall off a cliff in 2014 due to a poor performance against the run, but is only a year removed from being a top-10 player at the position. Adams, meanwhile, finished in the top 10 in ’14, on the strength of the second-best coverage grade among safeties, per PFF. Neither of these guys should be relied upon as a long-term answer, and Landry probably shouldn’t be either, but for teams looking to plug a hole for the 2015 season, there are certainly worse solutions.

Teams looking for a younger player could target someone like Moore, Gilchrist, Searcy, or Stewart. Moore, Searcy, and Stewart appear to be reasonable bets to change teams, since the Broncos have a handful of free agents to re-sign, the Bills have already invested heavily in another safety (Aaron Williams), while Baltimore may not be inclined to pay Stewart a raise after turning him into a capable starter last season.

Other notable names here include Parker, who contributed for the Chiefs at both safety and cornerback in 2014, and Branch, who has had his last two seasons mostly wiped out by injuries after averaging 105 tackles per year from 2009 to 2012.

Other unrestricted options:

Amidst this group of special teams contributors and up-and-down veterans, there are some names worth monitoring.

Lewis logged nearly 1,100 defensive snaps in 2014, and held his own, bouncing back from a forgettable performance in the Wild Card game vs. the Colts a year earlier. His teammate Manning was solid as well, limiting opposing quarterbacks to 105 yards and a 67.7 QB rating on 23 passes thrown in his direction. Coleman emerged as a solid part-time player for the Chiefs, and figures to be looking for an opportunity to start in 2015.

Allen, DeCoud, Landry, and Meriweather are among the veterans whose better days are probably behind them, but if they’re not asked to be every-down players, they could still provide positive value on modest deals. Leonhard played as well as any of those veterans in 2014, but it looks as if he’ll probably call it a career rather than trying to land a new contract for 2015.

Restricted FAs:

If McCourty is the only elite safety eligible for free agency this offseason, his strongest competition for that honor may come from someone in his group. Gipson and Hill, in particular, have developed into above-average starters and are entering their age-25 seasons. The Browns and Ravens, respectively, have the means to lock up their safeties for at least the 2015 season, and Cleveland at least looks like a lock to do so. We’ll see what the Ravens decide with Hill, who has been suspended for off-field issues in each of the last three seasons.

Besides Gipson and Hill, McLeod is a very good bet to receive a restricted free agent tender from the Rams, and Jarrett is coming off a solid season for the Jets, though it remains to be seen if the new coaching staff will want to lock him up. Most of the other players in this group are reserves and/or special-teamers, so if their teams bring them back, it will likely be for less than the RFA tender amount.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

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