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Offseason Outlook: New England Patriots

March 5th, 2015 at 7:00pm CST by Ben Levine

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Darrelle Revis, CB: $25,000,000 (option)
  2. Tom Brady, QB: $14,000,000
  3. Jerod Mayo, LB: $10,287,500
  4. Rob Gronkowski, TE: $8,650,000
  5. Nate Solder, T: $7,438,000
  6. Sebastian Vollmer, T: $7,020,833
  7. Danny Amendola, WR: $5,700,000
  8. Brandon Browner, CB: $5,500,000
  9. Julian Edelman, WR: $4,656,250
  10. Kyle Arrington, CB: $4,625,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 32 overall pick
  • Acquired fourth-round pick from Buccaneers in deal for Logan Mankins.
  • Acquired sixth-round pick from Buccaneers in deal for Jonathan Casillas.
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Titans in deal for Akeem Ayers.
  • Owe fifth-round pick to Buccaneers in deal for Jonathan Casillas.
  • Owe sixth-round pick to Titans in deal for Akeem Ayers.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Rams in deal for Greg Salas.

Other:

Overview:

The hype surrounding the Patriots last offseason was in regards to their additions, and the buildup proved to be warranted. Several pickups, including wideout Brandon LaFell and cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, helped put the team over the top as they won their fourth Super Bowl in franchise history.

The story this offseason may be the complete opposite, as the team could potentially lose several key contributors, including safety Devin McCourty.

The team’s biggest decision surrounds a player the Patriots could realistically keep. The Patriots hold a pricey team option on Revis, but all signs are pointing to the team declining the one-year deal. That would mean the team would have to address two sizable holes in the secondary.

If New England hopes to retain its premier defensive backs, the team will have to do some finagling to make the necessary cap room. This will mean veterans will be asked to take a pay cut, and if they refuse, their tenure with the Patriots may be finished.

As always, it should be an exciting offseason in New England.

Key Free Agents:

McCourty has established himself as one of the top safeties in the league since switching to the position in 2012. The former first-rounder has consistently finished atop Pro Football Focus’ rankings, and the 27-year-old is showing no signs of slowing down, as he’s missed only one game over the past three seasons.

Devin McCourtyThe Patriots surprised some earlier this week when they opted to not tag the All-Pro safety, instead opting for kicker Stephen Gostkowski. McCourty said it’s now “realistic” that he could be playing elsewhere in 2015, and that was the risk the Patriots were taking when the decided to not franchise the former first-rounder. As the bona fide top safety available this offseason, McCourty should have plenty of suitors to choose from.

The Patriots will presumably be in on the player, but it’s uncertain what they’d be willing to offer. Conventional wisdom would suggest that McCourty is less valuable to the Patriots considering the presence of Revis, who can be relied on to shut down the opponent’s top receiver. This allows McCourty to shadow the Patriots’ No. 2 cornerback or linebackers, while also spying on the quarterback. That’s not a ridiculous task to expect from any safety, meaning the Patriots could reasonably replace McCourty will a less expensive (albeit less talented) alternative.

Of course, that final point is made moot if Revis decides to bolt from New England. The cornerback’s cap hit would be worth $25MM if the Patriots opt to pick up his option, and at that price, such a move would be a bit of a surprise. The ideal situation for the team would be to decline the option, and re-sign the veteran to a deal that satisfies both parties. Of course, there’s plenty of risk in letting Revis test the free agent waters, especially with potential suitors, including Rex Ryan’s Bills, licking their chops at the prospect of signing the Pro Bowler. PFR’s Luke Adams had examined the various options the Patriots have in regards to the All-Pro cornerback last month.

If the Patriots decide to decline the option, it has to be assumed that Revis would instantly become the team’s top priority in free agency. The cornerback had perhaps the biggest impact of any free agent addition in 2014, and his presence was a big reason why the Patriots won the Super Bowl.

The Patriots also made news today when they declined to pick up the option on defensive tackle Vince Wilfork, making the 33-year-old an unrestricted free agent. The former first-rounder was limited by a torn Achilles in 2013, but the lineman seemed to be back to full strength in 2014. PFF’s advanced metrics ranked Wilfork as the sixth-best defender on the Patriots, and his run defense rating was far and away the best score on the team. Of course, the defensive tackle isn’t getting any younger, and his $8.9MM cap hit for next season would have been hard to justify, especially considering the players the Patriots may be looking to re-sign. Wilfork could very well return to New England on a cheaper contract, but based on his reaction to taking a pay cut last season, it seems unlikely that he’ll take too much of a discount.

The Patriots will also be looking to bring back several offensive contributors from last season. Running back Shane Vereen had his best season in 2014, playing in all 16 games for the first time in his career. The former second-rounder is a proven threat catching the ball, recording 52 receptions for 447 yards last season. Meanwhile, fellow running Stevan Ridley is also a free agent. The 26-year-old is only two seasons removed from a 1,200-yard season, but the presence of LeGarrette Blount could mean that Ridley’s time in New England has come to an end.

Offensive lineman Dan Connolly proved to be a reliable presence in multiple spots, and the Patriots seem to value his versatility.

Finally, mid-season additions Akeem Ayers and Jonathan Casillas are still young enough to deserve a second look.

Possible Cap Casualties:

If the Patriots hope to keep both Revis and McCourty, someone is going to have to either take a pay cut or move on. The Patriots already cleared up some room by declining Wilfork’s option, and the team could clear up an additional $7MM by releasing another defensive veteran, linebacker Jerod Mayo.

The former first-round pick has only played 12 games over the past two seasons as he’s recovered from a torn pectoral muscle and a torn patellar tendon. While the 29-year-old could now be considered an “injury risk,” there’s no denying his impact on the defense. Despite missing more than half his team’s games last season, Mayo still played the 14th-most snaps on the Patriots defense, and PFF ranked him as a top-11 defender on the squad. Given the presence of linebackers Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones, Mayo is certainly expendable. However, considering the versatility of the Patriots defenders, Mayo could still have a major impact on the team if he sticks around.

Other than Mayo, no other Patriots would immediately create an abundance of cap room if they were released. Receiver Danny Amendola’s $5.7MM cap hit doesn’t necessarily reflect his production (81 receptions, 833 yards, three touchdowns in two seasons with Patriots), but his postseason performance may indicate that he’s getting more comfortable with the team’s offense. Cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Kyle Arrington combine for a $10MM cap hit, and the team has enough depth in the secondary to move on from the duo. Of course, those potential moves would depend on where Revis and McCourty end up.

Positions Of Need:

Many of the Patriots’ offseason “needs” will depend on where their own free agents land. If Revis and McCourty sign elsewhere, the team will certainly be seeking some reinforcement in their secondary. Both players are the class of their respective positions, so it’s unlikely the situation will resemble last offseason, when the Patriots replaced the departing Aqib Talib with Revis.

With Wilfork presumably moving on, the team may be looking to fill a 325-pound hole on their defensive line. 24-year-old Sealver Siliga played well in limited snaps last season, and the former undrafted rookie could be ready for a bigger role in the defense. The Patriots essentially red shirted their first-round pick from last season, defensive lineman Dominique Easley. The 23-year-old is presumably a key piece for the future of the franchise, but it’s uncertain if the Florida alumnus is ready for a full-time role in the NFL.

On offense, the Patriots could potentially lose a pair of running backs in Vereen and Ridley. While there are plenty of buy-low candidates for the team to consider, Bill Belichick could be just as content going forward with his current group. Besides Blount, the team could turn to Jonas Gray, Brandon Bolden, James White, or Tyler Gaffney. Based on the Patriots unpredictability at the position, there doesn’t need to be any panic in retaining the pair of free agents.

The team has been rumored to be looking for a “deep threat” receiver in recent years, but the success of the offense in 2014 may indicate that the team doesn’t need any additional weapons. The team knew what they had in Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, and the team got some much-needed production from LaFell in 2014, as the wideout finished with career-highs in receptions (74), yards (953) and touchdowns (seven). Amendola came on strong during the postseason, and tight end Tim Wright (acquired in the Logan Mankins trade) proved to be a red-zone threat with seven touchdowns last season.

The offensive line is one area where the team could certainly use some depth. The group received plenty of criticism following the Patriots’ slow start in 2014, and their production down the stretch was a big reason for the team’s turnaround. However, the squad still featured a number of unheralded players, as half of the offensive line were originally undrafted rookies (and another three, Marcus Cannon, Bryan Stork and Cameron Fleming, were drafted in the fourth round or later). While the team got some unexpected production from this group (particularly from Ryan Wendell and Stork), the line could use an additional veteran presence.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

If the Patriots wanted to clear up additional cap room for this offseason, the team could work on an extension with offensive lineman Nate Solder. The former first-round pick has a cap hit worth $7.5MM next season, and while the team could get most of that money back by cutting him after June 1st, it seems unlikely that they’d just cut bait with the 26-year-old. Solder is entering the final year of his contract, so it may be in the Patriots best interest to work on an extension now.

Overall Outlook:

When Belichick has opted to let his veteran talent exit via free agency or trade, he’s typically been correct with his assessment. Ty Law, Richard Seymour, and even Logan Mankins failed to show the type of talent they displayed in New England following their departures, allowing the coach some leeway when he opts to let a beloved or contributing member of the team loose.

However, considering the talent the Patriots may be losing, it would be tough for Belichick to justify losing two key members of the secondary. Revis and McCourty had a significant impact on the Super Bowl-winning defense, and their presence would be difficult to replace, whether via trade, free agency or the draft.

Of course, the Patriots have plenty of flexibility in how they can approach the offseason. Regardless of their moves, with Belichick and Tom Brady back for another season, the Pats should still be considered the class of the AFC.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Raiders

March 5th, 2015 at 9:31am CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Austin Howard, T: $6,400,000
  2. Matt Schaub, QB: $5,500,000
  3. Donald Penn, T: $5,400,000
  4. Justin Tuck, DE: $4,968,750
  5. Khalil Mack, LB: $4,244,773
  6. Charles Woodson, S: $4,200,000
  7. Antonio Smith, DT: $4,000,000
  8. Nick Roach, LB: $3,721,250
  9. Sebastian Janikowski, K: $3,610,000
  10. Marcel Reece, RB: $3,580,838

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 4 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview:

Last offseason, Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie put his team under major reconstruction to try and turn the tide. Things didn’t exactly work out as planned. The Raiders got off to an 0-4 start that had players speaking out off the record and some, like veteran Charles Woodson, speaking out on the record. After the Raiders endured a grueling flight across the pond only to get blown out by the Dolphins, head coach Dennis Allen was shown the door. Eventually, Allen’s gig was handed over to his former second in command, Tony Sparano. Sparano got more out of his players, but only got 3 wins out of his 9 at the helm, leading the team to turn things over to Jack Del Rio after the season.

The year wasn’t without its bright spots, of course, and the biggest silver lining (get it?!?) was the play of rookie quarterback Derek Carr. While other teams are scheming to get one of the top two picks in this year’s draft in order to get a capable young quarterback, Oakland has no such need and they can focus on other areas.

Coaching Changes:

The Raiders were eyeing Del Rio early on in their offseason search and he ultimately won out over the incumbent Sparano. Of course, the Broncos’ defense never got the same kind of love as the team’s offense, but the Denver defense finished fourth in DVOA in 2014 after placing in the middle of the pack in 2013 under Del Rio’s guidance. Other teams with coaching vacancies seemed to flock to the sexiest names of the bunch like flies to a bug zapper. Every other team clamored to interview guys like Dan Quinn and Rex Ryan, but the Raiders more or less went by the beat of their own drum, save for their overtures towards new Jets coach Todd Bowles. With Del Rio comes two new coordinators in Bill Musgrave (replacing Greg Olson) and Ken Norton Jr. (taking over for Jason Tarver).

Some expected that McKenzie wouldn’t return, but his job was spared in the team’s shakeup. One has to imagine that he won’t have a very long leash, however.

Key Free Agents:

The Raiders acted quickly to re-sign one of their biggest name free agents in Woodson. The veteran, who celebrates his 39th birthday in October, started all 16 games for the club, grabbing four interceptions to go along with a career-high 111 tackles. The advanced metrics didn’t love his performance as Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked him 68th out of 87 qualified safeties, thanks in large part to the 355 yards after catch he allowed. Still, the Raiders were obviously satisfied with his performance and rewarded him with another one-year deal that carries base value of $3.2MM. Ultimately, the deal will count for $4.2MM against Oakland’s cap after taking into account the likely-to-be-earned incentives.

Still, there are more free agents to go, including center Stefen Wisniewski. Wisniewski stands as Oakland’s most important free agent on their docket, but they opted not to use the franchise tag to retain him. The reasoning there is fairly straight forward: while the soon-to-be 26-year-old is highly valued, all offensive linemen are grouped together when it comes to the pricing of the tag, so keeping him that way would have meant paying him like a top-tier left tackle. At last check, the two sides are talking but there appears to be a decent-sized gulf between the two. PFR’s Luke Adams recently suggested that Wisniewski could land a deal worth between $5-7MM annually.

Last month, McKenzie divulged that will let both Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown hit the open market as the Raiders look to go younger at cornerback. That doesn’t automatically mean that they won’t be back in Oakland, however.

“I’m going to let those guys hit the market and we’ll see what happens there,” McKenzie said, according to Jerry McDonald of the Bay Area News Group. “We like what our young corners have done. I think veterans like that are here on the team to bring those young guys along. And I think they kind of did that. Carlos was a savvy veteran that they leaned on. Tarell did a good job with those guys. I think it’s their turn.”

Rogers and Brown might have value as mentors, but they both graded out as below average in 2014 according to PFF, coming in at 69th and 75th amongst qualified corners, respectively. The door is open for them, but probably only slightly, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them in different uniforms in 2015.

Last offseason, the Raiders brought back running back Darren McFadden on an inexpensive one-year deal. This time around, McKenzie doesn’t sound inclined to do the same thing.

“To me, this year’s a little different because Latavius [Murray], in 2013 he spent the whole season rehabbing an injury,” McKenzie said in February, according to Vic Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle. “Last year, I think he showed that he can be a player.”

McFadden began the year as the No. 2 back behind Maurice Jones-Drew, started 12 games and gained 534 yards on 155 carries. However, they eventually gave the bulk of the work to Latavius Murray and the exciting youngster is widely viewed as the team’s feature back of the future.

The Raiders have four wide receivers – Denarius Moore, Vincent Brown, Rod Streater, and Andre Holmes – all eligible for either unrestricted or restricted free agency. Moore’s burn has fluctuated over the last four years thanks to some stints in the doghouse, but he’s a solid athlete who can help round out the team’s receiving corps behind James Jones. Holmes, 27 this summer, should stick around since he’s an RFA. Streater, who led the team with 60 catches for 888 yards and four touchdowns in 2013, played just three games in 2014 due to a foot injury. Assuming he’s healthy, the Raiders will probably exercise their power to match any offer for him.

Pat Sims, a defensive tackle who is vicious against the run, could be brought back to Oakland on an affordable one-year deal.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Raiders started their spring cleaning a bit early by letting go of safety Tyvon Branch and edge defender LaMarr Woodley.

Branch, 28, was with the Raiders for seven seasons. He started 62 out of a possible 64 games in his first four years but he missed all but five games over the past two seasons. The Raiders saved $2.9MM by releasing the strong safety but they’ll carry $7MM in dead money for the luxury of dropping his remaining three seasons on the deal. Branch was the 11th-highest-paid safety in the NFL, but his production just hasn’t matched that thanks to his injury troubles.

Days later, the Raiders decided to release Woodley. The 30-year-old spent the first seven seasons of his career with the Steelers and his first season in silver-and-black didn’t go as planned. Woodley, who went from playing outside linebacker in a 3-4 set to a 4-3 defensive end, placed 44th out of 59 qualified 4-3 DEs per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In total, his season lasted six games before a biceps tear knocked him out for the year. Woodley had no guaranteed money coming in 2015, so Oakland was able to clear his entire cap figure off its books, saving ~$5.2MM.

Jones-Drew, once one of the league’s top rushers, was signed to be the starter in Oakland. Things didn’t go as planned, however, and MJD finished with just 96 yards off of 43 carries. As Jones-Drew approaches his 30th birthday towards the end of March, it’d be hard to see the Raiders keeping him and his $2.5MM cap number for 2015. If you’re thinking that Del Rio could show some favoritism and keep him around at that price, think again, as the coach expressed serious doubts about how much the diminutive back has left in the tank. If Jones-Drew returns, I’d expect it to be at a greatly reduced price, but there’s no guarantee that offer would even be there.

Veteran quarterback Matt Schaub isn’t expected to be back in the fold with Carr firmly entrenched as the No 1 quarterback and Matt McGloin capable of handling the duties as the No. 2 QB on the depth chart. The Raiders won’t hesitate to shed Schaub and his $5.5MM cap number. Offensive lineman Kevin Boothe, who has experience at both center and guard, is set to carry a cap number of $1.3MM and could be let go.

Austin Howard theoretically could be let go after finishing as one of the league’s worst regularly playing right guards (per PFF), but the dead money on his deal will probably keep him around for this upcoming season. Del Rio let everyone know last month that Howard will change positions and compete at right tackle with third-year player Menelik Watson. Sebastian Janikowski ain’t cheap with a cap hit of $3.6MM, but he missed only three field goal attempts in 2014. Besides, dropping the soon-to-be 37-year-old would be like taking the eye patch off of the Raiders’ logo.

Positions Of Need:

With Nick Roach already ruled out for the season, the Raiders’ top need is probably finding a starting middle linebacker. Miles Burris could theoretically be called upon again, but he wasn’t all that effective when given the opportunity. Brandon Spikes, who is rather profiecient as a run stopper, probably stands as the best available MLB on the open market. Meanwhile, new defensive coordinator Norton is extremely familiar with Rey Maualuga from their time shared together at USC and the 28-year-old is coming off of his best season to date. Maualuga still graded out as being just a tick below average, according to PFF, but he’d represent a cheaper solution at the position if the Raiders wanted to direct more money elsewhere.

As mentioned earlier, the Raiders have three key receivers who could potentially reach the open market. Regardless of how things shake out there, they can be expected to look into finding a true top target for Carr. Armed with the No. 4 pick in the draft, the Raiders are in prime position to grab Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper. Cooper doesn’t boast the insane athleticism of last year’s top rookie receiver Odell Beckham Jr., but he’s a very advanced route runner for a player at his age and could make a major impact right off the bat in Oakland. While Cooper’s name has been thrown around as the top wideout in this class for some time, there are some who have made the case for DeVante Parker (Louisville) and Kevin White (West Virginia). Sounds surprising, but you only have to look back to last year where Sammy Watkins was almost universally regarded as the best talent over the rest of the crop, including Beckham. The jury is still out on that race as we’re only one year in, but Beckham just might prove to be the best WR out of that class, despite being the third one off the board.

With Howard going over to tackle and Wisniewski set to hit free agency, the Raiders will be looking to fill in their offensive line. In the draft, At the top of the draft, there’s Iowa’s Brandon Scherff, who could play tackle or guard. Taking him at No. 4 might be something of a reach, however, and they’ve got other needs. Tafur recently suggested that Florida’s Cam Erving could make a lot of sense for Oakland and he projects more as a second-round prospect. An added bonus: scouts feel that Erving could work as a guard, tackle, or center. In free agency, Oakland could make a play for 49ers guard Mike Iupati or Broncos guard/tackle Orlando Franklin. Neither one will be cheap, but the Raiders don’t have to be with a great deal of cap room to work with.

The Raiders could use a defensive tackle and, as is the case with every team seeking a DT, they’ve been connected heavily to Ndamukong Suh. After all, the Raiders are cash flush and there’s no better way to upgrade the D-Line than adding one of the league’s most feared players. There are options outside of Suh in free agency, of course. Broncos notable Terrance Knighton would cost a whole lot less, as would Henry Melton, who was looking pretty solid in 2014 before his injury. Nick Fairley is understandably overshadowed by Suh this offseason, but he’s slated to hit the open market and he’d move the needle for any team that signs him.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Donald Penn signed a two-year contract with the Raiders around this time last year and he’s set to earn $4.6MM in his walk year. You can beat up Oakland for a lot of their decisions in the spring of 2014, but Penn’s deal is not one of them. He more than earned his contract with his play last year which resulted in him being ranked as the No. 7 ranked tackle in the league by PFF (subscription required). Great tackles don’t grow on trees and Penn has a history of being one of the better ones in the league, earning a positive grade from PFF in every season since 2011.

Overall Outlook:

The Raiders have a boatload of cap room to work with this offseason, the No. 4 overall pick, and they’ll have every opportunity to vault themselves into the playoff mix in 2015. The question is whether they’ll utilize those resources properly. Their recent history says they won’t, but nothing is constant in the NFL. Maybe this year is the year that the Raiders get things right.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

March 4th, 2015 at 7:10pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Gerald McCoy, DT: $14,595,000
  2. Vincent Jackson, WR: $12,209,777
  3. Michael Johnson, DE: $9,000,000
  4. Dashon Goldson, S: $8,000,000
  5. Logan Mankins, G: $7,000,000
  6. Anthony Collins, T: $6,000,000
  7. Alterraun Verner, CB: $4,250,000
  8. Evan Dietrich-Smith, C: $3,750,000
  9. Mike Evans, WR: $3,325,341
  10. Michael Koenen, P / Clinton McDonald, DT: $3,250,000 (tie)

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

Picked by some as a possible surprise playoff contender, the Buccaneers completely collapsed under new head coach Lovie Smith en route to winning just two games, their lowest win total since 1986. Veteran quarterback Josh McCown, signeLavonte Davidd to a curious multi-year contract during the offseason, couldn’t replicate his 2013 success, and ended up splitting time at QB with second-year player Mike Glennon. A revamped offensive line also struggled, leaving rookie receiver Mike Evans as the sole bright spot on offense.

Tampa Bay’s defense, expected to be the stronger side of the club, also played below expectations, finishing 25th in both yard and points allowed. The unit was especially poor against the pass — after releasing Darrelle Revis prior to the season, the Bucs finished 28th in passing yards allowed. On a positive note, Tampa did lock up star defensive tackle Gerald McCoy to a seven-year extension worth more than $95MM.

Key Free Agents:

Like most teams who performed badly enough to be holding the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, the Buccaneers don’t have a ton of free agents who they need to worry about retaining. Oniel Cousins played at both tackle spots, ultimately starting seven contests, but wasn’t effective, posting a -21.0 Pro Football Focus grade (subscription required), struggling especially in pass-blocking. At 31, Cousins’ best days are behind him, and he shouldn’t be a priority in free agency.

At tight end, Luke Stocker was also below-average in his 331 snaps, but he’s been decent in prior seasons. He’s just 27 years old, and not a terrible option as the No. 3 TE behind Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Brandon Myers. Stocker shouldn’t require much of a commitment to be re-signed, so I’d expect him to be brought back.

The Bucs field one of the best outside linebackers in football in Lavonte David, but Mason Foster has been manning the middle since being drafted in 2011. He had been steadily improving as his career progressed, but after being slowed last season by a shoulder injury (and ultimately missing six games), he regressed. Still, Foster just turned 26 on Sunday, so he has youth and experience (54 career starts) on his side. He’s worth re-signing, but with the Dolphins reportedly showing interest, the Bucs shouldn’t get into a bidding war.

After following Smith from Chicago, Major Wright started seven games at free safety, rating as a perfectly average player (+0.4 PFF grade). He was among the worst safeties in the league in 2013, so there’s a concern that he could slide back to his prior levels of production. Wright earned only the minimum salary benefit last season, however, so if Smith feels comfortable with him in the back end, he’ll probably return (especially if Dashon Goldson doesn’t).

Since being selected 51st overall in the 2011 draft, defensive end Da’Quan Bowers has been nothing short of a bust, starting just 10 games in four seasons and never posting more than three sacks in any one year. Fellow end Adrian Clayborn, picked No. 20 in that ’11 draft, hasn’t disappointed to the same level, but he certainly hasn’t lived up to his draft status. Both players can probably survive in reserve roles elsewhere, but a return to Tampa shouldn’t be a priority.

Elsewhere on the defense, reserve linebacker Dane Fletcher is a key contributor on special teams and will probably be retained to serve in that capacity once again. Defensive end Larry English, a former first-rounder, struggled in his part-time pass-rushing duty, and could be running out of NFL opportunities.

Possible Cap Casualties:

After signing a five-year deal prior to the 2013 season, Goldson was supposed to team with Revis to give Tampa Bay one of the most feared secondaries in the league. Goldson, now 30 years old, hasn’t held up his end of the bargain, as he’s been among the worst safeties in the NFL, including grading out as the second-worst at his position in 2014, according to PFF. He’s been floated as a trade candidate, but the Buccaneers would be hard-pressed to find another team willing to take on Goldon’s contract, which contains a $7.5MM base salary for this season ($4MM of which is guaranteed). Tampa would have to carry that $4MM in dead money if it cuts Goldson, but his play has dropped to the point where a release seems inevitable, although the two sides could agree to a pay cut.

Michael Koenen is a decent punter, but he is still a specialist, making his 2015 $3.25MM cap hit hard to justify. He ranked just 29th in net punting average, so the Bucs should at least make a move to reduce his salary. Or, if Tampa thinks is can find a better option through the draft or free agency, it can release Koenen, clearing his entire cap charge.

There have been rumblings that defensive end Michael Johnson could be on the chopping block, as his first season in Tampa was disappointing. He’s not a great fit for Smith’s defensive scheme, but he was a very productive player with the Bengals as recently as two years ago. Johnson is only 28 years old, and he’d count $7MM in dead money if he were cut (juxtaposed against just $2MM in savings). He’s probably safe for 2015.

Two other Buccaneers would have been listed here had the club not already made a decision on their respective fates. Tampa will retain veteran receiver Vincent Jackson at his $12.2MM cap charge, a somewhat surprising decision given the trade rumors that had swirled around him last season. On the other hand, the Bucs will either trade or release failed 2014 signee Anthony Collins, who never worked out in his transition to a full-time role at left tackle.

Positions Of Need:

The most glaring need on Tampa’s roster is obviously at quarterback, where McCown has already been released and the club is reportedly open to trading Glennon. Fortunately for the Buccaneers, they shouldn’t have to delve into an extremely weak free agent QB market, because as holders of the No. 1 overall selection, they can have their choice of successful NCAA signal-callers — but will it be Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota?

With about eight weeks left until the draft, the early returns show Winston as the favorite to hear his name called first. Speaking at the combine, Smith said he would be comfortable with the FSU alum as the “face of the franchise,” and today Winston visited with the club’s owners in Tampa. Winston looks like the pick, but as we’ve learned in previous drafts, anything can happen when the process begins.

After playing the majority of the year on the right side, Demar Dotson flipped to left tackle near the end of season and proved to be at least competent. Still, tackle is a need area for the Bucs — with Dotson in tow, the club can probably seek out the best tackle available, regardless of side, and plug Dotson in at the other spot. There aren’t many free agent options at left tackle, so Tampa is probably safer looking for a right-sider. Bryan Bulaga is the best choice available at RT, but the Bucs could also take a look at Doug Free or Jermey Parnell, both of whom played for the Cowboys last season. They could take a chance on the recently-released Michael Oher, but after striking out on Collins last year, they might not want to take another swing on a risky free agent.

Center and left guard are spoken for by Evan Dietrich-Smith and Logan Mankins, respectively, but right guard could be upgraded — Patrick Omameh rated as the No. 55 guard among 78 qualifiers, per PFF. Tampa could make a play for the top-name guards, like Mike Iupati or Orlando Franklin, or settle for a lesser-known player like Detriot’s Rob Sims. The Bucs could also take the veteran route and look at older players such as Daryn Colledge or Davin Joseph (a longtime Buc). The draft is said to be chock-full of offensive lineman, however, meaning the club could look to fill holes at tackle and/or guard with younger players.

On defense, Tampa Bay’s scheme requires pressure up front, something that was hard to come by last season (outside of McCoy’s production). Both the draft and free agency have plenty of options on the edge, so the Bucs should be able to find some help. From an on-the-field standpoint, Greg Hardy might be the perfect fit, as he could bring pressure from outside while McCoy dominates from the interior. But with his off-the-field baggage, Tampa might be uncomfortable making a play for the 26-year-old end. Instead, the club could target the Eagles’ Brandon Graham, who would fit better in a 4-3 look than he does in Philadelphia’s 3-4, or a veteran like Dwight Freeney. Ultimately, I expect the Bucs to add at least one top-notch edge rusher, plus several lower-tier depth options.

Elsewhere, the Buccaneers could aim to find a middle linebacker to replace Foster, but the FA market doesn’t have much to offer, meaning the draft might be the way to go. Additionally, Tampa could use another safety simply because Goldson’s play has been so detrimental. But with his large cap figure, I doubt the club would feel comfortable spending so much on the position. If they can pawn Goldson off to another team, maybe Tampa takes a run at Devin McCourty, or ex-Smith pupil Charles Tillman (if he’s willing to convert to safety), but it’s more likely they stay with their current crop.

Smith has made it clear that the Buccaneers don’t intend to sit out free agency, and with more than $33MM in cap space to use, they should be major players as they look for upgrades to their roster.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions:

The only viable extension candidate on Tampa Bay’s roster is David, who has quickly become one of the league’s best defenders since being drafted in 2012. The 25-year-old has topped 100 tackles in each of his first three seasons, and placed among the top-seven at his position (according to PFF) during that same span. Unfortunately for David, 4-3 outside linebackers aren’t highly-valued on the open market, and even though David is perhaps the best overall player at said position, he doesn’t have the earning potential of, say, a 3-4 outside ‘backer.

However, there’s no reason David shouldn’t earn the top salary among 4-3 OLBs, where Lance Briggs‘ $7MM per year average is the figure to beat. K.J. Wright and the Seahawks recently agreed to an extension that pays him $6.75MM per season, and David should be able to top that. I’d be surprised if David doesn’t at least match Briggs’ figure, and if pressed, I’d wager he’ll earn more.

Tampa Bay also has a fifth-year option on running back Doug Martin. Ever since his electrifying rookie season, the 2012 first-rounder has dealt with injuries and slowly been phased out of the offense. Even while starting 11 games last year, he failed to top 500 yards rushing, posting just 3.7 yards per carry. The Bucs will decline the option.

Overall Outlook:

The Buccaneers figure to be one of the more interesting teams in the league next season, especially if they choose Winston to be their quarterback of the future. The roster has holes to be sure, but the overall makeup of the club isn’t that different from the one that had observers predicting a postseason appearance prior to last season. Armed with ample space, the Bucs could make a few solid additions, and with a bit of luck, the playoffs aren’t completely out of reach — but it’s probably safer to view 2015 as a rebuilding year in Tampa Bay.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Rams

March 4th, 2015 at 9:34am CST by Luke Adams

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Robert Quinn, DE: $16,744,110
  2. Sam Bradford, QB: $16,580,000
  3. Chris Long, DE: $12,500,000
  4. Jake Long, T: $10,500,000
  5. Jared Cook, TE: $8,300,441
  6. Rodger Saffold, OL: $8,250,000
  7. Greg Robinson, T: $4,837,295
  8. Scott Wells, C: $4,750,000
  9. William Hayes, DE: $4,355,000
  10. James Laurinaitis, LB: $4,275,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 10 overall pick
  • Owe fourth-round pick to Buccaneers in deal for Mark Barron.
  • Owe sixth-round pick to Buccaneers in deal for Mark Barron.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Falcons in deal for Alec Ogletree.
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Patriots in deal for Greg Salas.

Other:

Overview:

Even in a hyper-competitive NFC West division, the Rams entered the summer of 2014 as a potential dark horse postseason candidate. The team didn’t have much offensive firepower to speak of, but the addition of Aaron Donald made the defensive line the scariest in the NFL, and pairing a healthy Sam Bradford with 2013 breakout running back Zac Stacy looked like it would, at the very least, make the offense competent.

That optimism quickly took a turn south though, when Bradford was sidelined for a second straight season with an ACL injury. Following Bradford’s injury, the hits kept on coming: the defensive line took some time to gel, Stacy wasn’t nearly as effective, second overall pick Greg Robinson had some growing pains as he adjusted to the NFL, and key contributors like Chris Long and Jake Long went down with injuries.

Given all that went wrong in St. Louis, it’s a little surprising the team even managed to win six games, but a disappointing 2014 season means the club could once again head into 2015 as a sleeper. Armed with another top-10 draft pick, the Rams are prepared to add more talent to a roster that already features a handful of promising young players. There are plenty of question marks – particularly on the offensive side of the ball, where the club looks set to give Bradford one more shot – but there are plenty of solid building blocks already in place.

Key Free Agents:

A pair of quarterbacks who started games for the team last season – Shaun Hill and Austin Davis – are eligible for free agency, and even with Bradford due back, I’d expect to see the club try to re-sign one or both of those signal-callers. Hill, who will be entering his age-35 season is the sort of veteran backup who can at least give a team a chance to win if its starter goes down — he had a respectable 63.3% completion percentage and an 83.9 passer rating in his eight starts last season, and should be fairly inexpensive.Sam Bradford

If the Rams prefer not to retain both quarterbacks, it may make more sense to bring back Davis. His numbers in his own eight starts were extremely similar to Hill’s across the board, and at age 25, there’s presumably some room for improvement. Davis is also a restricted free agent, so the club could tender him a one-year offer at an affordable rate, and perhaps put off a more permanent decision on his future with the club for another season.

Besides the quarterbacks, the offense has a few more notable free agents, with tight end Lance Kendricks, offensive tackle Joe Barksdale, and wide receiver Kenny Britt all eligible to hit the open market. The Rams initiated extension discussions with Britt’s camp quite early, which is a sign the club would like to bring him back, and that makes sense. The former first-round pick had a nice bounce-back season in 2014 after reuniting with Jeff Fisher, establishing a new career high with 48 receptions, despite catching balls from a pair of backup QBs.

Britt will almost certainly be more expensive this time around than he was a year ago, when St. Louis was able to ink him to a one-year, $1.4MM pact. But for an offense that’s a little thin on playmakers, spending a few million on a 26-year-old wideout with big-play potential (he averaged 15.6 yards per catch in 2014, right in line with his career mark) looks like a worthwhile investment.

Barksdale’s future in St. Louis, on the other hand, looks more uncertain. The veteran tackle is reportedly set to test the open market after three years with the Rams, and I’m not sure the club will aggressively engage in a bidding war to retain him. Even though offensive line is an area of need for the Rams, the team may view the right tackle position as the best fit for Jake Long, now that Robinson has assumed the left tackle role. If that’s the case, there may not be a spot for Barksdale, who hasn’t played a whole lot of guard since entering the NFL. On the other hand, if the Rams end up parting ways with Long, or deciding to try him at guard, locking up Barksdale would become a greater priority.

As for Kendricks, with $8MM+ already committed to No. 1 tight end Jared Cook, it seems unlikely that the Rams would be willing to spend $4MM on a second tight end, and that’s Kendricks’ rumored asking price. While he could be back, it wouldn’t surprise me if Kendricks signed elsewhere, and the Rams brought back restricted free agent Cory Harkey and perhaps added another tight end in the draft.

Among the Rams’ other free agents, safety Rodney McLeod looks like the only key player the team will absolutely make an effort to retain. Appearing in more than 1,050 defensive snaps in 2014, the 24-year-old continued to establish himself as a solid NFL starter, and the arrival of former first-round pick Mark Barron shouldn’t jeopardize McLeod’s role in the secondary. As a restricted free agent, McLeod will be eligible for a one-year tender, and I expect he’ll get one.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Rams have already begun cutting ties with overpriced players, parting ways with defensive tackle Kendall Langford, who became expendable when Donald immediately established himself as one of the best interior defensive linemen in the NFL. Releasing Lanford created $6MM in cap savings for the club.

Next up? It may be Jake Long. As discussed earlier, the former first overall pick has been supplanted at left tackle by Robinson, and his $10.5MM cap number doesn’t really play anywhere else. Restructuring Long’s deal and trying him at a new position remains a possibility, but releasing him would save $8MM in cap room, which could be put toward signing one or two younger – and likely healthier – offensive linemen.

Elsewhere on the offensive line, Scott Wells looks like a logical cap casualty as well. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), among players who played at least 25% of their teams’ snaps in 2014, no center performed worse than Wells, who graded well below average as a run blocker and was even worse in pass protection. The 34-year-old is entering the final year of his deal, and cutting him would create $3.75MM in cap savings for St. Louis.

Among the other veteran players with sizable cap hits, defensive lineman Eugene Sims may also be on the chopping block. At around $3MM, it wouldn’t cost the Rams a whole lot to keep Sims in the mix, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the team chooses to do so, since he has been effective as a run stopper and can occasionally get to the quarterback. Still, he’s only a part-time contributor, and cutting him would clear nearly his entire cap number from the books — if the opportunity arises to add a cheaper replacement, I believe the team would explore that possibility.

Positions Of Need:

The Rams’ defense was once again its strength in 2014, ranking ninth in overall DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. With no key pending free agents set to hit the market, St. Louis is in fairly good shape on that side of the ball. Upgrading at linebacker and/or cornerback is a possibility this offseason, but it would be a luxury, rather than a necessity. For the most part, the team should focus on its offense, where a number of positions must be addressed.

First and foremost, the Rams will be on the lookout once again for a long-term answer at quarterback. A former first overall pick, Bradford was supposed to be that long-term solution, but injuries have limited him to just seven games in his last two seasons, and even when he has been healthy, his performance on the field early in his career has been up and down. Fisher and general manager Les Snead have spoken highly of the 27-year-old, with both men downplaying or outright dismissing trade rumors that swirled around at last month’s combine. Bradford also played a role in the team’s promotion of Frank Cignetti to offensive coordinator, and the hiring of Chris Weinke as quarterbacks coach, which is a sign that the club expects him to stick around.

It appears likely that Bradford will head into the 2015 season as the team’s No. 1 quarterback, assuming he’s healthy enough to do so, but it will be the final year of his contract, so the club will eventually have to decide whether to go in a different direction. Of course, if the team ultimately opts to replace Bradford with someone else, that replacement may not be added to the roster this offseason, given the lack of viable options on the free agent market and in the draft.

If the Rams don’t add a new quarterback this offseason, they can at least give their old QB a few more receiving options with which to work. Brian Quick flashed some real potential in 2014, but former first-rounder Tavon Austin still hasn’t shown a whole lot, and there’s no guarantee Britt will return. I wouldn’t expect the Rams to make a major play in free agency for someone like Jeremy Maclin or Randall Cobb, but adding a second-tier veteran is realistic. Nate Washington, who played for Fisher in Tennessee, is one possibility, and I could imagine Cecil Shorts being a fit in St. Louis. Selecting a wideout during the first day or two of the draft is also in play for the Rams.

While adding talent at the skill positions would be nice, the Rams’ more pressing needs are in the trenches — Robinson will be given every opportunity to make the left tackle position his own for the remainder of his rookie contract, and perhaps well beyond that. And last season’s big free agent signee, Rodger Saffold, was solid at left guard in 2014. However, the team could end up overhauling its other three offensive line positions this offseason.

Wells, as mentioned above, was ineffective at center, and Davin Joseph – who PFF ranked as a bottom-five guard in the league – was nearly as bad beside him. Barksdale was solid enough at right tackle, but both he and Joseph are on expiring contracts, while Wells is a strong candidate to be cut.

If the Rams do make a splash in free agency, I’d expect it to be somewhere on the offensive line. Interior options include Chiefs center Rodney Hudson, who would be a nice fit in St. Louis, as well as Raiders center Stefen Wisniewski, 49ers guard Mike Iupati, former Falcons guard Justin Blalock, and Bengals guard Clint Boling. Potential targets on the outside include Packers tackle Bryan Bulaga and Cowboys tackle Doug Free. Adding anyone from that list, and then drafting a lineman with the No. 10 overall pick, would go a long way toward solidifying the group that will be tasked with keeping Bradford upright in 2015.

The Rams are no lock to use that No. 10 pick on an offensive lineman — if a receiver like Amari Cooper or Kevin White falls that far, or if one of the top quarterbacks somehow slips, it would be hard to pass up on that sort of talent. Still, the same could be said of Iowa tackle Brandon Scherff, who would be a very nice addition if he’s available when the Rams are on the clock. Stanford’s Andrus Peat, LSU’s La’el Collins, and Miami’s Ereck Flowers also figure to receive consideration from St. Louis’ brass.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

The Rams don’t have a ton of cap room at the moment, and are the only NFL team that didn’t carry over any cap space from 2014. They should be able to create some flexibility by cutting (or significantly restructuring) Long and Wells, as noted earlier, and Bradford’s contract is another one that figures to be addressed. He’s currently set to count for $16.58MM against the cap in the final year of his deal.

Asking Bradford flat out to accept a pay cut may not be the best course of action for the Rams, even if a player coming off consecutive ACL injuries probably isn’t worth a $13MM base salary. Restructuring his deal in a way that reduces Bradford’s 2015 salary and cap hit while also giving him some bonus money up front, and tacking another year or two onto the contract, would seem like a logical solution, given how much the Rams’ brass likes the veteran signal-caller. If Bradford looks at this year’s dismal free agent class and believes he could cash in on the open market a year from now, he may drive a hard bargain, but working out a short-term contract extension seems like a mutually beneficial move for the two sides.

Besides Bradford, there are no extension candidates on the roster that need to urgently be addressed. The Rams locked up their top pass rusher, Robert Quinn, to a long-term deal last year, earning a big check mark on their to-do list. While the team could approach defensive tackle Michael Brockers about a new contract this summer, he has a fifth-year option for 2016, so there’s no hurry to get anything done with him quite yet.

Greg Zuerlein will be eligible for free agency after the 2015 season, but he’s coming off a year in which he missed three field goals from inside the 40-yard line, despite making five of seven from 50+. Although he may sign a new deal in the fall, I’d expect the Rams to want to make sure he’s back on track in the 2015 season before investing $3MM+ annually in him on a multiyear contract.

If the team needs to create additional cap room for 2015, Quinn, Cook, and Chris Long are among the players whose contracts could be restructured.

Overall Outlook:

PFR’s Rob DiRe wrote back in November that the Rams are only a quarterback away from contention, and while there’s some truth to that, I’d argue that the team is perhaps a couple offensive linemen away from contention as well — even if St. Louis were to add the next Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, that QB would need some solid players in front of him to keep him on his feet.

Without a real shot at Mariota or Winston, and with no free agent quarterbacks worth a significant investment, Bradford looks like the Rams’ best option heading into 2015, meaning the club can perhaps put its search for a new QB on the back burner temporarily. The defense looks good, and adding some new blood at wide receiver, offensive line, and perhaps tight end would give Bradford a greater opportunity to succeed, and to stay healthy. The former No. 1 pick may prove not to be the long-term solution at the position in St. Louis (or, potentially, Los Angeles), but assuming they can patch up their other holes, there may just be enough talent elsewhere on the roster to make the Rams a playoff contender in 2014.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Chargers

March 3rd, 2015 at 5:06pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits*:

  1. Philip Rivers, QB: $17,416,668
  2. Eric Weddle, S: $10,100,000
  3. Antonio Gates, TE: $9,762,500
  4. Corey Liuget, DL: $6,969,000
  5. Donald Butler, ILB: $5,480,000
  6. Malcom Floyd, WR: $4,716,668
  7. Mike Scifres, P: $4,347,500
  8. Chad Rinehart, G: $4,250,000
  9. Donald Brown, RB: $4,083,333
  10. D.J. Fluker, T: $3,109,772

* King Dunlap‘s new contract will likely place him in the Chargers’ top 10, but exact cap figures aren’t yet known.

Notable coaching changes:

  • Hired 2014 Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan as linebackers coach.

Draft:

  • No. 17 overall pick
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Cowboys for Sean Lissemore.

Other:

Overview:

After starting the year at 5-1, many had the Chargers pegged as Super Bowl contenders. Unfortunately, things unraveled quickly after the injury bug bit Philip Rivers and much of their offensive line. A mid-season resurgence thrust them back into the playoff picture, but the Chargers wound up losing three of their four final games, ending their season on December 28th.Philip Rivers

The Chargers are ready to put their disappointing and frustrating 2014 behind them, but they’ll have to take care of a few holes if they want to go for the AFC West crown and more in 2015.

Key Free Agents:

Chargers GM Tom Telesco recently said that the Chargers are “a different team” when Ryan Mathews is healthy and on the field. Unfortunately, the 27-year-old (28 in May) spent half of 2014 on the sidelines. To date, 2013 represents Mathews’ only full 16-game season. In that campaign, Pro Football Focus (sub. req’d) rated Mathews as the 29th best halfback out of 55 qualified players with an overall grade of +1.6, marking him as just above average. The traditional stats have that year pegged as arguably his best season ever as he ran for over 1,200 yards off of averaged 4.4 yards per carry. I’d expect the Bolts to try and work something out with the former No. 12 overall pick, but with a hard limit on how far they’ll go based on his health, age, and overall production. Ronnie Brown is also scheduled to hit the open market and there should be some conversation between the two sides after the 33-year-old showed some flashes late in the 2014 season.

As Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) show, 2013 was a pretty rough year for Brandon Flowers as he finished 85th out of 110 qualified corners. PFF rated Flowers as a top-seven corner in both 2011 and 2012, but the Chiefs could no longer justify his salary at that point and cut him, leading him to sign a one-year pillow contract with the Chargers. Now, his value is back up after a solid 2014 season that put him as the 15th best corner in the league, per PFF. Flowers is on the right side of 30 and playing good football once again, but he’d also be jumping in with a deep class of cornerbacks if he doesn’t re-sign. His payday could be capped by his competition, though teams like the Dolphins are already licking their chops at the prospect of landing him.

Less heralded cornerback Shareece Wright is also set to hit free agency. The former third-round choice started a career-high 14 games last season and finished third on the team with 54 tackles while breaking up six passes. He could be a good insurance policy for Jason Verrett and his surgically-repaired shoulder, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see another team offer him more money. Strong safety Marcus Gilchrist is in a similar position and another team could give him a chance to start.

Despite recording only 3.5 sacks in 2014, Dwight Freeney recorded 53 overall quarterback pressures, according to Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required), and figures to receive a lot of calls come March 10th. The 35-year-old saw only four games of action in 2013 thanks to a quadriceps injury but saw time in all 16 games last season.

The Chargers kept left tackle King Dunlap from hitting the open market with a four-year, $28MM extension in late February. The 30-year-old graded out as the 23rd-best tackle in the league out of 84 qualifiers last season, per PFF, and while he’s not in the elite tier at his position, the Chargers did not want to have to tough things out in free agency where it’s a seller’s market for tackles.

Eddie Royal never saw a consistently high number of targets in the Chargers’ offense, but then again that’s pretty much the case for every receiver in San Diego. The soon-to-be 29-year-old had 62 catches for 778 yards and seven touchdowns in 2014, his best season statistically in some time.

Positions Of Need:

The Chargers failed to produce on the ground in 2014 and that’ll be one of their top needs looking ahead to 2015. Most don’t see Branden Oliver, last year’s fantasy darling, as a guy who would be able to take care of the full workload and their need for a back will only increase if Mathews is not retained. The free agent market, of course, has some intriguing options, headlined by 2014’s Offensive Player of the Year DeMarco Murray. Murray’s odometer was cranked up pretty high last season, but he’s one of the very best in the league when he’s on the field. Going a little bit cheaper, Saints tailback Mark Ingram is coming off a career year and could make a lot of sense. Adrian Peterson is restless (to put it mildly) in Minnesota and while everyone is connecting AD to Dallas, the cash-flush Chargers might do their due diligence on him. While we’re discussing big names, former USC star Reggie Bush is also available. In the draft, the Chargers could look into some of this year’s top tailbacks like Melvin Gordon and Tevin Coleman. Then again, the Chargers aren’t necessarily looking for a guy to carry the ball 20 times per game, so a mid-tier veteran free agent like Frank Gore could be a solid addition to the depth chart alongside Oliver, Donald Brown, and Danny Woodhead.

Without a solid offensive line in San Diego, it won’t matter much who is carrying the ball. The Bolts have multiple holes to fill after the offseason retirements of veterans Nick Hardwick and Jeromey Clary. Hardwick, 33, had served as San Diego’s starting center since being selected by the Chargers in the third round of the 2004 draft, the same year that the team added Rivers. Clary, meanwhile, was with the Chargers since 2006 and started 93 of the 103 games he played for the team during his career. They have work to do on the o-line, but thanks to their newly-minted extension with Dunlap, they won’t have to pick through the shallow pool of available left tackles.

After the retirement of Jarret Johnson, the Chargers will also seek out a pass rusher this offseason. Fortunately for them, the need might not be as dire since Freeney has decided to continue playing. Of course, he’s also scheduled to hit the open market so he isn’t a lock to return. If linebacker Jason Worilds hits the open market on March 10th as expected, he would represent a major boost to the Bolts’ front seven. The Steelers standout won’t come cheap, so someone like defensive lineman Darnell Dockett could be a less pricey option if the Cardinals don’t work out a new deal with him. In the draft, super athletic defensive end Arik Armstead could be available at No. 17, though there’s no guarantee of that if he continues to impress.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Rivers is entering final year of a deal that will pay him $15.75MM in base salary and count more than $17MM against the salary cap. Telesco said earlier this year he wants Rivers to be a Charger for life but at last check the two sides have yet to have discussions about restructuring his contract. For his part, Rivers says that the team’s potential relocation won’t affect his decision to stay on board one way or the other. Rivers has been willing to adjust his deal in the past to help accommodate the team. In the fall of 2013, he agreed to drop his $12MM base to $7MM while receiving a $5MM signing bonus. That adjustment gave the Bolts an additional $6.7MM in 2013 cap space. A new deal this time, of course, would probably involve additional years.

Corey Liuget is another key player who could leave after 2015. The durable defensive end is set to earn $6.9MM after the team triggered his fifth-year option, but another strong season could make him extra pricey on the open market. PFF pegged him as an above-average 3-4 defensive end in 2014 and the Chargers would probably like to keep the aggressive lineman beyond this upcoming season. An extension for Eric Weddle, who celebrated his 30th birthday in January, is also under consideration.

When Antonio Gates‘ time is through, the Bolts can turn to a very promising heir in Ladarius Green. At 6’6″ and 237 pounds, Green has displayed the agility of a wide receiver with all of the power you’d expect to see from a guy his size. Many thought that 2014 would be Green’s breakout year, but Gates decided to silence the naysayers and maintain his spot as one of the Chargers’ top ball-catchers once again. Still, Gates can only outlast Father Time for so long and San Diego won’t want to risk losing Green after the 2015 season. He’ll earn a base of just $660K this year but a new deal will cost quite a bit more.

The Chargers’ offensive line was hit hard by injuries and only one player appeared in every offensive snap: left guard Chad Rinehart. Thanks to playing more than 85% of the club’s snaps, Rinehart will now earn a base salary of $3.15MM in 2015, up from $2.25MM. The question now is whether they’ll allow him to play out his walk year. Rinehart, 28, never started more than 12 games in any of his five NFL seasons when he re-signed with the club last offseason, but he now has a full season as a starter under his belt. However, the advanced numbers (via Pro Football Focus) are not impressed by his performance last season, rating him as one of the worst guards in the NFL.

With a cap hit of $4MM+, the Chargers could sit down with “Dammit” Donald Brown to see if he’d be willing to give them a bit of a break. They won’t cut him, however, according to comments made by Telesco earlier this offseason.

Overall Outlook:

Given the Broncos’ myriad issues, the AFC West doesn’t look nearly as scary as it once did. The Chargers have some tuning up to do, sure, but with $30MM of cap space and one of the league’s best quarterbacks, there’s no reason to think that they can’t put themselves back on top in short order.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Falcons

March 2nd, 2015 at 8:42pm CST by Rob DiRe

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Matt Ryan, QB: $19,500,000
  2. Julio Jones, WR: $10,176,000
  3. Sam Baker, T: $7,300,000
  4. William Moore, S: $5,650,000
  5. Roddy White, WR: $5,587,500
  6. Paul Soliai, DT: $4,400,000
  7. Jon Asamoah, G: $4,268,750
  8. Joe Hawley, C: $4,000,000
  9. Tyson Jackson, DT: $3,850,000
  10. Jake Matthews, T: $3,733,977

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 8 overall pick
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Rams in deal for Alec Ogletree.

Other:

Overview:

The Falcons are drafting eighth overall despite being one victory over the Panthers away from playing the Ryan Lindley-led Cardinals at home in the first round of the playoffs. As enticing as that sounds, a quick exit to the Seahawks in the divisional round and the 25th overall pick may not have been worth the win in terms of long-term team building.

I’m not suggesting the Falcons tanked the end of the season — anyone who watched those games would not be surprised they didn’t make the playoffs. I am suggesting they are in a better position to take the next step toward the playoffs because of how their season ended. The Falcons have already taken the most important step towards returning to respectability, and hopefully for them their decisions from a coaching perspective pan out for the best.

Coaching Changes:

The Falcons’ defense has been a mess these past two seasons: they graded 26th in Pro Football Focus ratings in 2013 and 2014 (subscription required) and the traditional statistics place them even worse. In 2013, they finished 27th in both yards allowed per game and points allowed per game. This past year they were also 27th in points, as well as dead last in yards allowed.Dan Quinn

Mike Smith will be remembered mostly for the quick surge to the playoffs that started his tenure and the boneheaded decisions that ended it, but Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has been brought aboard to change all of that. Smith accomplished quite a bit as a defensive assistant with the Ravens from 1999-2002 and coordinator with the Jaguars from 2003-2007, but he was never able to match those accomplishments as Atlanta’s head coach. Quinn’s accomplishments as a coordinator dwarf Smith’s, as he has led the top scoring defense in the NFL for three consecutive years on his way to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances (of course, he was one controversial play away from consecutive victories as well).

Quinn had a pool of talent available to him on the defensive side of the ball in Seattle and while he is a highly touted defensive mind, there must be some reservation over leaving Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Bobby Wagner, and Michael Bennett, among others. The defense was predicated on having safeties that could cover the middle of the field, corners who can handle themselves up the sidelines, and of course a ferocious pass rush.

The Falcons have had an abysmal pass rush for a few years now, and do not have a safety on the roster worthy of even being compared to Thomas or Chancellor. What the Falcons do have is a top flight young corner in Desmond Trufant. Trufant was taken by the Falcons 22nd overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. The 24-year-old graded out as the seventh best cornerback in the NFL as a rookie according to Pro Football Focus, and improved to sixth best in 2014 (subscription).

Trufant is a great star, a player who could possibly match what Sherman did for Quinn, but the team will need to acquire top level talent around him. If not, Quinn will need to be extremely creative in order to put a respectable defense on the field over the next few seasons.

Another very interesting coaching change comes on the other side of the ball, where Kyle Shanahan will be in control of an offense that has been inconsistent under multiple coordinator’s during Smith’s tenure. Shanahan hopes to bring consistency to the unit. Shanahan has a reputation for producing high-level running games in the zone-blocking scheme made famous by his father in Denver.

Shanahan has more recently been known as a very adaptable offensive mind, bringing in the zone-read spread from Baylor during RGIII‘s rookie year in Washington, as well as creating a hugely successful first half of the 2014 campaign with career backup Brian Hoyer as his quarterback. Equally impressive for me was convincing fans and media members that Kirk Cousins was a plausible NFL starter in his time filling in for an injured Griffin.

Key Free Agents:

Kroy Biermann and Osi Umenyiora are the closest things the team has to established pass rushers, and both will be free agents this offseason. This isn’t Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, but the team doesn’t have a huge amount of depth behind them either. Jonathan Massaquoi stepped in and was effective, but he waived by the team and will not be returning in 2015. With both Bierman and Umenyiora unlikely to score huge deals elsewhere, they will at least be considered as options to stay with the team.

Matt Bryant has been a staple in Atlanta since he signed in 2009, and the team has already extending him to a three-year deal worth $8.5MM.

Quinn would like to have safeties with the talent of Thomas and Chancellor, but that just isn’t a realistic goal. For now, Dwight Lowery is better than any other option they have. A solid player, he lacks the explosiveness and athleticism of a dynamic playmaker, but he does a good job of making up for it was smart play and sound football. Losing Lowery would make the secondary worse immediately, but committing to him with starter-level guaranteed money could prevent the team from upgrading the position should the opportunity arise.

Steven Jackson will not be with the team in 2015, leaving Devonta Freeman as the only back on the roster. Jacquizz Rodgers and Antone Smith are both free agents, and both have minimal value on the open market. The Falcons could keep one or both players on very cheap, non-guaranteed contracts. Rodgers is the more experienced of the two, and brings value in the passing game. He has had little impact as a runner, but has shown flashes in the screen game and catching the ball out of the backfield. Neither is on pace to become a lead back in an offense, but Shanahan has found gems out of forgotten running backs before, as have his mentors Mike Shanahan and Gary Kubiak.

The most notable player the Falcons have to make a decision on is Sean Weatherspoon. Weatherspoon was a standout in 2011, his second year in the league, but struggled with injuries and poor performance throughout most of the rest of his tenure with the team. A first-round pick in 2010, he was a defensive captain in 2012, and represents a potential Pro Bowl level performer. Quinn has already went on record saying he hopes the team can retain Weatherspoon. Of course, with the recent struggles, he will also be a risky proposition.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The potential cap casualties that could be released this offseason should be troubling to the Falcons. The team doesn’t have many gigantic cap hits, but of their top ten highest at the end of the 2014 season, it would be easy to argue that seven of those players aren’t worth the money they will make in 2015. In fact, an argument could be made for an eighth player who isn’t worth the money, depending on your feelings about Matt Ryan.

The team has already parted ways with three of those top 10 cap hits. Justin Blalock has been cut by the team in a move that created $3.79MM in cap space this year. The Falcons also save $3.5MM in cap space by releasing Harry Douglas, and roughly an additional $3.75MM by releasing Steven Jackson.

While the Falcons have already done much of the heavy lifting in preparing for the offseason, they still have some options they could consider releasing.

Sam Baker has missed the past two seasons due to injury, and although he performed well in 2012, he had been underwhelming for the Falcons prior to that. He never excelled at left tackle, and while he might be a sturdy option, the emergence of last year’s first-round pick Jake Matthews should allow the team to move in from him. Matthews struggled as a rookie, but is the future at the position. If Baker can make the move to right tackle, it could buy him another year, especially since the team would need to designate him a post-June 1st cut in order to see any savings on the cap in 2015.

Paul Soliai has underperformed, but with so much cap space going into free agency, releasing him without creating additional savings doesn’t make a ton of sense. Designating him a post-June 1st cut would free up minimal space, but probably isn’t worth it considering he still has a chance to bounce back and provide real value on the interior of the defensive line.

William Moore is another player who the team would probably rather keep as opposed to releasing him to free up a mere $700,000 in cap room. Quinn needs safeties to come in and run a defense in the image of the one he ran in Seattle, and the team will likely explore upgrades in free agency. However, unless they can get a legitimate starter over Moore, the Falcons will likely keep him the rotation in 2015.

Roddy White likely has another year in Atlanta, especially after the team moved on from Douglas. However, as a veteran that has struggled with injuries opposite the emergence of Julio Jones‘ superstardom, it will be difficult to imagine his time with the team under that lucrative contract lasting much longer.

Positions Of Need:

The Falcons’ top priority will be finding a pass rusher. Atlanta only managed 22 sacks as a team in 2014, a whopping 32 less than the league leading Bills. They did so without a premier pass rusher, with no player on the defense achieving even five sacks. With all that cap space, the team will likely be looking at all options when it comes to pass rushers. If Justin Houston were to hit the market, the Falcons are among the few who could afford him despite the imperfect scheme fit. It would be unsurprising if the team even looked into Greg Hardy, who could be available at a discount if the division rival Panthers let him walk. Brandon Graham, Brian Orakpo, Jerry Hughes, and Jason Pierre-Paul could also be targets as high upside free agents. Also don’t count out the possibility of Pernell McPhee, who has the versatility desired to fill the type of role Michael Bennett and Chris Clemons have previously held in Quinn’s defenses.

The Falcons could also look to upgrade the offensive line. With Jake Matthews in the fold, I would not expect them to chase after a top tier left tackle, but a solid right tackle could be a great addition. If they don’t think they can find a significant upgrade in Byron Bell or King Dunlap, or a similar player, they could roll back with Gabe Carimi to compete at right tackle. Offensive guard would provide more opportunity for star power. As Mike Iupati and Orlando Franklin look for new homes in 2015, the Falcons provide a tremendous need and an opportunity to get paid.

The team is happy with their wideouts, able to throw Jones and White outside the numbers and attack teams on the sidelines. What was very obviously missing from the offense in 2014 was Tony Gonzalez, who could work the middle of the field like no other player in NFL history. The biggest name on the market is Julius Thomas, an athletic receiving tight end who has been a downfield threat for the Broncos. Jordan Cameron is another big, athletic player, who missed most of 2014 but caught 80 passes the year prior. Neither player is a renowned blocker. A more logical fit would be Owen Daniels, who has a connection to Shanahan from their time with the Texans, and while he isn’t necessarily a downfield threat he would replace some of the veteran savvy fans remember from watching Gonzalez. Niles Paul has some familiarity with Shanahan from Washington, but he saw limited snaps at tight end during that time, so it is unclear how highly he is thought of. Jermaine Gresham is the best blocking tight end at the top of the market, and he although he has yet to unleash his potential as a pass catcher, he was drafted to be a tall downfield threat, a skill he never realized in Cincinnati.

Safety wouldn’t necessarily be the first position of need based on the roster, but it could be addressed as Atlanta could use an upgrade over William Moore and Dwight Lowery. Recently, PFR’s Luke Adams put together an overview of the free agent market for safeties, and to put it simply, it is not pretty. He lists 14 players in his top tier, but he and I both know that Devin McCourty is the only star in the group and he will likely be franchised by the Patriots. For his part, Quinn needs great safety play to replicate what he did in Seattle. Rahim Moore, Ron Parker, and Darian Stewart could be interesting options, and Antrel Rolle might provide a short term upgrade, depending on the learning curve it takes to pick up Quinn’s scheme.

If the Falcons want to address positions like safety, tight end, pass rusher, and offensive line with top flight free agents, they could probably get by at running back with spare parts. Shanahan has a history of getting the most out of previously unremarkable running backs. They have a few guys in the mix, between Rodgers, Freeman, and Smith who could turn their careers around in Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme. They could also target a back late in the draft, where Shanahan made stars out of sixth-round pick Alfred Morris and undrafted free agent Arian Foster, not to mention the production he got out of Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell before All-Pro center Alex Mack was lost for the season in Cleveland last year.

If the team does decide that it has the room to sign a higher profile player, Justin Forsett would likely be at the top of the list. He had tremendous success in Shanahan’s mentor Kubiak’s zone-blocking scheme in 2014, and should make an easy transition to the new offense. Mark Ingram would provide another big name signing, while Ryan Mathews, Stevan Ridley, and Roy Helu could be cheaper options that have some proven ability to be a lead back.

In addition to that long list of needs, adding a linebacker and a defensive tackle wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. The front office will have to prioritize where they spend their money, and will likely have to look to improve through the draft. It isn’t crazy to think that this team could have a quick turnaround with the likes of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones in the fold, but the reality is that it’ll take some time for the Falcons to get back towards the top of the league.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions:

The team will need to extend Julio Jones as soon as possible. Jones has been an otherworldly talent at wide receiver when healthy, but injury concerns going back to his time at Alabama will probably complicate his contract negotiations. Despite his injury issues, he finished with 104 catches and 1,593 yards last season, both good for third in the league despite playing about 200 less snaps and accumulating 22 less targets than Antonio Brown and Demaryius Thomas. The Falcons will almost certainly look to lock Jones up the long term, especially when considering the price they paid to land him in the 2011 draft.

The Falcons have already exercised the fifth-year option on his contract which will keep him with the team in 2015, and they will have a backup plan of franchising him at season’s end to secure him through 2016. This gives the Falcons leverage to work out an extension without the threat of their star receiver truly being able to test the open market. Through four seasons, there is no reason to think Jones will not become one of the highest-paid players at his position. If the Cowboys are able to come to terms with Dez Bryant, that would set the market and make it much easier to project a contract for Jones. I believe it would be unlikely to see either of those two players sign deals as magnanimous as the ones signed by Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson in terms of years and total value, but an average salary of between $10MM and $12MM per year would probably be the floor for Jones’ next deal.

Overall Outlook:

Atlanta was staving off a rebuild for the past few years under Smith, looking for band-aids and big names to put them over the top, and that plan nearly worked as they were a fourth-down pass breakup away from getting to the Super Bowl in 2012. However, they didn’t catch the breaks they needed these past two seasons, and with an abundance of cap space, they have the opportunity to legitimately build up their roster.

Looking at the needs of the roster and assuming Quinn would want to replicate the type of defense he employed in Seattle, it is tough to imagine the Falcons turning this around in only a year or two. The silver lining for the fan base in Atlanta is that unlike other teams that seem to be constantly rebuilding–like the Browns, Rams, and Texans– the Falcons know that if Matt Ryan continues to play at a high level, and with weapons like Jones to throw to, just returning to league average along the offensive line and on defense could catapult them right back into contention.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2015 NFL Franchise/Transition Tags

March 2nd, 2015 at 3:25pm CST by Luke Adams

The deadline to designate franchise or transition players for 2015 has now passed, and six players received tags. Here’s a breakdown of the action:

Franchise players (non-exclusive):

Transition players:

Candidates who didn’t receive tags:

Players who received franchise or transition tags can sign those one-year tenders, if they so choose. They can also negotiate long-term agreements with their own teams, or – once free agency begins next week – with another team. If any tagged player signs an offer sheet with a new club, his current club would have five days to match the offer.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Chiefs

March 2nd, 2015 at 9:42am CST by Sam Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Alex Smith, QB: $15,600,000
  2. Dwayne Bowe, WR: $14,000,000
  3. Tamba Hali, OLB: $11,964,706
  4. Eric Berry, S: $8,357,700
  5. Jamaal Charles, RB: $7,970,835
  6. Sean Smith, CB: $7,750,000
  7. Eric Fisher, T: $6,051,954
  8. Mike DeVito, DL: $5,400,000
  9. Derrick Johnson, LB: $5,250,000
  10. Chase Daniel, QB: $4,800,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 18 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview:

After riding significant upgrades at the head coach and quarterback positions one of the most notable turnaround campaigns in NFL history, the Chiefs took a slight step back in 2014. The franchise that hasn’t made consecutive playoff appearances since the 1995 season saw key defensive injuries/illnesses and historically unproductive wide receiver play submarine its effort to return to the postseason. Although none of Kansas City’s wideouts scored a touchdown, making the Chiefs the first such team to accomplish that feat in 50 years, the Chiefs were in position to make the playoffs as late as the third quarter of their Week 17 win against the Chargers. Ultimately, the Chiefs winning nine games — including home triumphs over both Super Bowl participants — with their anemic WR corps, a spotty offensive line and the unavailability of Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito (both lost for the season in Week 1) and Eric Berry can be considered a success in the right light.

Largely behind the work of former two-time All-Pro Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs ranked 12th in offensive DVOA. Running behiDwayne Bowend an offensive line that saw just one player, free agent center Rodney Hudson, receive a positive grade from Pro Football Focus, Charles continued his pursuit of the all-time yards-per-carry mark. While not flirting with the 6.4 yards he averaged in 2010, Charles gained 5.0 per tote for the second straight year. But the elusive runner only received 206 carries, which were his fewest since becoming a full-time starter in 2010. That figure’s not surprising considering Andy Reid‘s penchant for short passes but one that probably needs to rise as the 28-year-old Charles’ prime winds down. Without a downfield complement, Smith helped unearth a much-needed contributor in Travis Kelce. Fresh off microfracture surgery, the second-year tight end enjoyed a breakout slate that helped the offense immensely. But the Chiefs’ offensive grit in snaring wins despite glaring issues can’t be something they count on; reinforcements are desperately needed to push Kansas City back into contention.

2014 continued a superstar ascent from outside linebacker Justin Houston, who ripped off a 22-sack season and booked himself either a sizable one-year renewal — which the Chiefs did Monday to delay his free agency — or an eventual megadeal that extends his stay in the Midwest for the rest of the decade. Apart from Houston, the Chiefs’ defense couldn’t counter the losses of three quality starters and slunk to 19th in defensive DVOA — 10 spots down from their 2013 mark. Josh Mauga and Allen Bailey both finished with negative Pro Football Focus grades as understudies-turned-starters, with Mauga doing an especially poor Johnson impression, charting as the league’s seventh-worst inside linebacker. Although Tamba Hali, a nine-year Chiefs edge-rusher, was still a strong player last year, he was clearly the complement to Houston and could be on his way out after the Chiefs used a first-round pick to grab Dee Ford to bolster arguably their strongest position. Hali’s cap situation ($11.9MM number with just $2.9MM in dead money, according to OverTheCap, if released) makes his position in Kansas City less certain than the less-reliable Bowe ($14MM number but $9MM in dead money). But the argument can be made that releasing both KC bastions (combined 17 years of Chiefs service) and using the savings to add younger, more cost-effective players at receiver and on the offensive front is the best move rather than continuing to have these performers clog the cap.

Key free agents:

A third-round pick from Georgia during the Scott Pioli regime, Houston fell in the draft due to drug-related concerns but turned in one of the best seasons in the 55-year history of the franchise in surpassing Derrick Thomas‘ team standard of 20 sacks set in 1990. The Chiefs’ predicament now is similar to the one they faced during Thomas’ heyday with two top-tier pass-rushers due high prices. The Carl Peterson-managed Chiefs opted to do what GM John Dorsey‘s Chiefs likely will: keep the A-side rusher. Peterson allowed Neil Smith to depart as a free agent in 1997, breaking up the most notorious pass-rush tandem in team history. The Houston-Hali duo isn’t quite on that level since it’s only had three full seasons together, but the overall talent is similar. Hali accrued seasons of 14 1/2 and 12 1/2 sacks in 2010 and 2011, respectively, before becoming a full-time tandem with Houston — the Thomas in this scenario. He will take priority over Hali, who is 31. Hali also never accumulated three straight seasons with 10+ sacks as Houston’s done in his three years as a full-time starter.

To keep Houston long-term, though, the Chiefs will have to pay him more than any outside linebacker. Clay Matthews‘ $13MM-per-year deal is the standard right now, and Hali’s $11.5MM is second in the league, according to OverTheCap. Houston and Von Miller are likely to raise that ceiling as 26-year-old pass-rushers.

Houston’s franchise tag will cost Kansas City about $13.1MM this year. There will be more players axed in the near future to make this work, and the chances Hudson stays in KC don’t make financial sense. Like Houston, Hudson came from the 2011 draft, but the second-round center took a bit longer to blossom. After sustaining a broken leg just three games into his second season, Hudson bounced back just as the Chiefs did and was a mid-level center in 2013. But last season, Hudson shined by ranking as PFF’s third-best snapper (subscription required) as an above-average run- and pass-blocker despite the injuries and ineptitude flanking him. But as the best available center, Hudson will see his price tag reside outside of the Chiefs’ payable range — likely in the $6MM-$8MM per-year strata. This will be a swift blow to an already-deficient offensive line.

The Chiefs’ No. 3 free agent is probably Ron Parker, who showcased versatility in playing nearly three quarters of the season at free safety. That may lead him to an adequate payday elsewhere. Cut eight times by three different teams, Parker spent two seasons as a nomadic corner and his third as a backup in Kansas City. Parker began his fourth season as a starting corner after beating out Marcus Cooper in training camp but became a key utility man once Berry went down with an ankle injury two months before receiving a diagnosis of Hodgkin’s lymphoma. After making 18 career tackles — all in 2013 — Parker notched 84 as a full-timer. Even though PFF didn’t think too highly of his run-defense skills (subscription required), Parker’s ability to vacillate between roles and be a productive cover man will help drive his price up. Like Hudson, Parker will probably find another team willing to pay more.

A veteran who started for four straight years on zone- and man-based fronts with the Broncos, Ryan Harris stepped in after being relegated to backup duty the past two seasons. He was probably the Chiefs’ second-best lineman despite being thrust into the lineup when third-year starter Jeff Allen joined the season-ending injury brigade in Week 1. Entering his age-30 season, Harris could be seen as a second-tier option for teams in need of a right tackle — a position Harris has played almost exclusively in his eight-year career. The Chiefs may opt to bring him back if his price tag is low enough.

Positions of need:

Reid managed to steer the Eagles to three straight NFC championship games with James Thrash serving as the de facto No. 1 receiver. The early-2000s Eagles proved that a No. 1 wideout isn’t required for sustained success; starters Thrash and Todd Pinkston combined for just three TDs in 2003. That sort of balance showed some in the Chiefs’ passing game last season with the usage of several wideouts with none standing out much in a west coast offense. But the Chiefs rode this workmanlike formula beyond its limits. With an already-cautious passer having no standout threat to beat defenses deep, the offense’s margin for error was slim, and that lack of diversity showed down the stretch. The first team since the 1964 Giants not to have a receiver score serves as an ignominious attachment that will likely stay with the franchise for a while, considering the era adjustments (just two receivers accrued 1,000+ yards in 1964 compared to 23 last season). And it will result in an offseason infusion, through free agency and the draft.

Without their second-round pick in each of Reid’s drafts due to the Smith trade, the Chiefs bypassed college wideout help in both. Last year in what turned out to be a reservoir of receiving help, the Chiefs selected Ford and cornerback Phillip Gaines in the first and third rounds, respectively. Out of necessity, they’ll have to take one this year. But the franchise hasn’t done well in tabbing receivers in the draft or free agency throughout the past three regimes. Since taking Bowe at No. 23 in 2007, the Chiefs selected six wideouts — two in the first two rounds — and just one managed to stick in their rotation: Dexter McCluster. This left a void alongside Bowe for years with a revolving door of sub-par No. 2 receivers signed as free agents, from Chris Chambers to Steve Breaston to Donnie Avery, creating the need for the Chiefs to overpay Bowe in 2013 to ensure some semblance of production outside. Now, they face a future that may not include any proven receivers with a tight cap.

The Jeremy Maclin-to-KC link makes sense due to familiarity, but not much financially. With Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant off the market via franchise tag, Maclin and Randall Cobb, should the Eagles and Packers not tag them, will battle for top billing. The Chiefs do not have the resources to go after him and are not typically big spenders or a sought-after destination. Players like Cecil Shorts, Eddie Royal, or even Kenny Britt make more sense, Royal in particular with his flashes as a catch-and-run threat. Shorts with a quarterback upgrade would help, but should either Cobb or Maclin go off the market via tag or long-term deal, Britt’s price tag may exceed buy-low territory. But much like the offensive line losing Hudson, imagining this current corps sans-Bowe is ugly, with undrafted free agent Albert Wilson as the next-best guy. While Amari Cooper, Kevin White and Devante Parker are probably gone by the top KC picks at No. 18, Arizona State’s Jaelen Strong, Michigan’s Devin Funchess or Dorial Green-Beckham, who would be a risky boom-or-bust pick after his Missouri exit, will likely be available.

With Allen returning and Fisher showing scant promise as a former No. 1 overall selection, the Chiefs’ primary focus up front will be on the interior, where they started one of the worst guard pairings in the league. Zach Fulton struggled as a rookie but should have a chance to compete at right guard again, however, free agent Mike McGlynn will not be back at his left guard post. PFF takes no pleasure in watching McGlynn work. The 29-year-old, who manned left guard after signing a one-year deal in Kansas City in August due to Donald Stephenson‘s suspension, graded as the site’s worst guard for the second time in three years (subscription required). Fisher’s improvement upon switching from right to left tackle wasn’t anything substantial, and this will mark a pivotal season for the scrutinized protector. While not overly talented, Allen at least gives the Chiefs versatility in how they approach the offseason with experience at guard (his first two seasons) and tackle (last year pre-injury).

The Chiefs could take LSU tackle La’el Collins and slide Allen back to guard to maximize the value of their No. 18 pick should this be their preferred option instead of receiver. Inside, Brian De La Puente, who’s played at both center and guard, would be a much cheaper option after serving as a backup with the Bears last year. If the Chiefs view this as a must-upgrade area that is too critical to count on a second-day draft pick to fix, Clint Boling would be a reasonable target at guard. Although getting 2012 draftees Allen and Stephenson back full-time will buoy this operation, Kansas City will address the line through both of the primary player-procurement avenues this offseason.

Berry’s unfortunate diagnosis keeps the secondary in flux. The former first-round pick has one year remaining on the massive rookie contract he signed in the last year of the old CBA, but his career may be over. A landing on the non-football injury list this year could save the Chiefs $5.5MM, according to CBSSports.com’s Joel Corry, and would go over better than simply releasing the popular safety. Complement Husain Abdullah played well in spots in his first season as a starter, and he’ll be counted on to provide more substance with Berry’s future in doubt. Parker’s departure would mean a void here, and considering the Chiefs’ bigger issues up front and out wide, they’re in no position to splurge on a safety. Undrafted free agents Daniel Sorensen and Kelcie McCray are the in-house options, an area from which Abdullah emerged last offseason. The Chiefs need a few of these stories next season since they’ll be unable to plug all of these holes from outside the organization. On his third team in three seasons, McCray was the second-best special-teamer in the NFL last season, per PFF.

DeVito may join Hali and Bowe on the open market as the Chiefs attempt to fix their biggest issues. Despite a strong debut campaign in Kansas City in 2013, DeVito tore his Achilles in Week 1 and is entering his age-31 season. Kansas City can save $4MM by cutting the veteran, and he’s reportedly comfortable with betting on himself elsewhere as opposed to slashing his salary. After spending a first-round pick on Poe and signing Bailey to a $25MM extension last year, the Chiefs could turn to under-the-radar free agent signee Vance Walker to fill DeVito’s spot. A former defensive tackle, Walker showed promise as the season waned as a 3-4 end. Of the Chiefs’ top eight salaries, only four players — Alex Smith, Charles, Sean Smith and Fisher — are locks to return.

Extension Candidates:

One of the Chiefs’ non-issue spots comes thanks to Pioli’s final first-round pick, Poe — the leader in defensive tackle snaps the past two years. Poe finished with a career-high six sacks last season and booked a second straight Pro Bowl trip. The agile 346-pounder has morphed into one of the better 3-4 noses in the game, and as a former first-rounder, Poe’s fifth-year option must be picked up to keep him off the free agent market in 2016. The Chiefs have until May 3 to do so. It would be wise to exercise this with Poe’s strength/agility combination, which resulted in the Conference USA product’s selection at No. 11 overall in 2012, not found in many at his position. Should the Chiefs pick up this option, Poe would earn a 2016 salary that averages the wages of the third- to 25th-highest-paid DTs — approximately $5.7MM based on the current contract values at the position. That figure more than doubles Poe’s $2.8MM 2015 salary, one that didn’t need to be factored into this unique mathematical equation.

Poe’s issue is more pressing due to the deadline residing two months from now, but Sean Smith emerged from the doghouse last season to become the top defensive back on the league’s second-best pass defense. Cited for DUI last summer, Smith worked behind Parker and Cooper at corner during training camp. But the 2013 free agent acquisition shook off that issue and enjoyed his finest season, finishing as PFF’s fifth-best corner. The analytics site also graded the rangy corner as the Chiefs’ second-best defender behind Houston. Smith signed a reasonable three-year deal that gives him $5.5MM per season, but he will receive a third contract before he’s 30. The Chiefs do not have another No. 1 corner option at present, as Cooper regressed and Gaines doesn’t have enough of a sample size yet. They do have a lot of prior commitments, but nothing significant beyond this year in the secondary. KC has more than $69MM (near the league’s middle) of 2016 cap space with players Hali, Berry and Johnson off the books. Since Smith played at a level above where he’s been during most of his career, the Chiefs probably need to see if he can come close to replicating his standout slate before determining an offer value.

Overall outlook:

Alex Smith proved in 2011 he can take a team to the precipice, but he needs plenty of help. Reid’s proven he can extract above-average play from a quarterback once labeled a bust. However, the Chiefs do not have the ancillary parts to complete this equation. The black hole at wideout cannot exist if the Chiefs want Smith to take them back to the playoffs, and the offensive front needs help to go along with improvements from thus-far-underwhelming holdovers. The coaching staff’s helped guide this team to back-to-back explosive starts and infused some stability into what was a fluid, tense situation. But more talent will be required to keep the Chiefs in contention.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2015 NFL Free Agent Market By Position

March 2nd, 2015 at 8:27am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with this year’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ve been taking a closer look at the free agent market for each position over the last few weeks.

Since we started by examining 2015’s free agent quarterbacks in mid-February, the list of free agents has changed a little. Teams have cut players, adding intriguing new names like running back Reggie Bush, wide receiver Brian Hartline, guard Justin Blalock, and defensive lineman Darnell Dockett to the open market. Some players, like quarterback Josh McCown and defensive lineman Ricky Jean-Francois, were cut and have since signed new contracts since we examined the markets for their respective positions.

Still, for the most part, with franchise and transition tags not due until tomorrow, and free agency still more than a week away for players with expiring contracts, the lists below reflect this year’s market. For each position, we broken down players into unrestricted and restricted free agents, identifying the top-tier UFAs at each spot.

Here’s the full list of our breakdowns of the 2015 free agent market by position:

Offense:

Defense:

Special teams:

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Cardinals

March 1st, 2015 at 5:22pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Patrick Peterson, CB: $14,791,200
  2. Calais Campbell, DL: $14,750,000
  3. Carson Palmer, QB: $14,500,000
  4. Larry Fitzgerald, WR: $10,850,000
  5. Jared Veldheer, T: $8,500,000
  6. Daryl Washington, ILB: $6,500,000
  7. Jerraud Powers, CB: $5,350,000
  8. Lyle Sendlein, C: $4,275,000
  9. Jonathan Cooper, G: $3,967,909
  10. Drew Stanton, QB: $3,866,668

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 24 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

For the second straight season, Bruce Arians and the Cardinals were surprise contenders, but unlike the 2013 season, when Arizona won 10 games only to finish outside the playoff picture, the Cardinals managed 11 wins, earning a posLarry Fitzgeraldtseason berth via a wild card spot. Arians won Coach of the Year (for the second time in three years), and both he and general manager Steve Keim inked contract extensions that will keep the pair in in Phoenix through 2019.

Of course, Arizona didn’t win that aforementioned playoff game, losing to the Panthers largely due to the absence of a viable quarterback. Just two days after signing a three-year extension, Carson Palmer tore his ACL, leaving backup Drew Stanton to take over in the middle of Week 10. After Stanton then went down in Week 15, journeyman Ryan Lindley was forced to take over, and Arizona never recovered.

The Cardinals thrived on the other side of the ball, where despite numerous injuries and a yearlong suspension of linebacker Daryl Washington, the defense finished seventh in DVOA under coordinator Todd Bowles, who has since taken a head coaching position with the Jets.

Key Free Agents

Most of Arizona’s top free agents reside on defense, where Keim has made a habit of adding low-cost veterans to supplement a talented core. One such addition was cornerback Antonio Cromartie, who signed a one-year, $4MM pact with Arizona after being released by the Jets. The 30-year-old played more than 1,000 snaps in the desert in 2014, and he looks to be line for a multi-year deal. Keim indicated that the club would like to-resign Cromartie, but allowed that he’s likely to hit free agency. A reunion with Bowles and the Jets is certainly on the table, especially if New York loses out on Darrelle Revis.

At 27, Dan Williams will hit free agency at a younger age than Cromartie, and he’s coming off a better season, having finished No. 14 among 81 qualified defensive tackles per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Williams is part of a loaded interior defensive line class, which also boasts Ndamukong Suh, Terrance Knighton, and Nick Fairley, among others. But aside from Knighton, who’s spent his career in a 4-3 defense, and B.J. Raji, who seems likely to return to the Packers, Williams is the only true nose tackle available on the open market. He should find many offers once free agency begins, and it’s possible he’ll price himself out of Arizona’s range.

Tommy Kelly is seven years older than Williams, but his 2014 production showed no hint of an advanced age. After being released by the Patriots at cutdowns, Kelly signed a one-year deal with the Cardinals that netted him less than $1MM. The veteran defensive lineman ended up playing more than 700 snaps, and performed well. But given his age, he shouldn’t command too much of a market, meaning Arizona could have a chance to bring him back.

Two linebackers — Sam Acho and John Abraham — hit free agency at very different points in their respective careers. The 27-year-old Acho played nearly 500 snaps and held up well, especially against the run, and could be a nice find for a LB-needy club in free agency; the link between he and Bowles is obvious, but Acho would make sense for the Jets. Abraham, meanwhile, was placed on injured reserve in September after doctors told him to sit out a year following a concussion. He’ll be 37 in May, and it appears as though retirement is the best option for him given his head injuries.

On offense, the Cardinals have just one pending free agent — guard Paul Fanaika — who played more than 400 snaps. He was underwhelming in 2014, placing No. 71 among 78 guard qualifiers per PFF. The free agent guard class recently saw some newcomers, as Todd Herremans, Justin Blalock, and Charlie Johnson were all released in recent days, so Arizona can probably find an upgrade if they’d like. It’s probably time to give 2013 first-round pick Jonathan Cooper a chance to start, so Fanaika shouldn’t return regardless.

Tight end Rob Housler saw limited duty as the backup to John Carlson, and wasn’t overly effective when he did play. The Cardinals spent a second-rounder on Troy Niklas in 2014, so I’d expect them to bid farewell to Housler, especially given they’ve been linked to free agent James Casey.

Possible Cap Casualties

The Cardinals have already been among the most active teams in advance of the new league year, releasing both Darnell Dockett and Ted Ginn Jr., and agreeing to a new deal with Larry Fitzgerald that will keep the veteran receiver in Arizona for the next two years. Still, the club has only about $14.3MM in cap space, so further moves could be coming.

Center Lyle Sendlein was possibly the worst player on the Cardinals’ offense, as he finished the year with a -31.3 PFF grade. Soon to be 31, Sendlein is scheduled to count $4.275MM in 2015, the final year of his deal. Releasing Sendlein would save Arizona $3.15MM, and although the free agent center market isn’t strong, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team seek out an upgrade on the open market or via the draft.

Stanton could also be on the chopping block, as he’s due to count more than $3.8MM next season — Arizona would save $3.2MM by cutting him. But given the uncertainty regarding Palmer and his recovery, and the team’s utter lack of QB options elsewhere on the roster, Stanton will probably be safe.

Carlson, entering the final season of a two-year contract, was especially ineffective in 2014, struggling in nearly every aspect of the game — he was PFF’s third-worst TE, and his run-blocking was particularly sub-par. The Cardinals could clear nearly his entire cap figure by releasing him, and given their cap situation, having another $1.6MM to work with could be appetizing.

Positions Of Need

Without question, the Cardinals are a team set up to win now. With a 36-year-old quarterback, and an aging receiver locked in for two seasons, Arizona has a short window to remain a contender, so free agency decisions will need to focus on the short-term. Keim & Co. have done a wonderful job with under-the-radar signings in the past, and with less than $15MM to work with, the club will have to hope it can do the same again.

Offensive line should be the key area of concern heading into the new league year. Arizona added left tackle Jared Veldheer on a five-year deal last offseason, and he was certainly a stabilizing presence on the blind side. However, he was the only effective player along the Cards’ front five, as every other position was filled by a below-average lineman. If Sendlein isn’t retained, center could a priority, but as mentioned, there aren’t a ton of options at the position. Instead, the Cardinals could focus on guard — one spot could be handed to Cooper, with the other being filled by a free agent. The likes of Mike Iupati and Orlando Franklin are too expensive, but someone like Blalock could be a nice addition on a short-term deal.

At running back, Andre Ellington is a talented receiving option, but he might not be cut out to be a featured back. Luckily, RB is a position flush with free agent possibilities. If the Cardinals can’t land a big name like DeMarco Murray or (if he’s released/traded) Adrian Peterson, they can look at some lower-tier options, instead. Ryan Mathews would make a solid pairing with Ellington, although both share injury concerns. Mark Ingram could make sense for Arizona, or the club could take a chance on Stevan Ridley on a one-year, “prove-it” deal. In the draft, the Cardinals could look at either Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon in the first round, or wait until later rounds to find a capable back.

If Cromartie leaves via free agency, the Cardinals could also have a hole to fill at CB. If the club wants to add another veteran to team with Patrick Peterson, someone like Chris Culliver or Brandon Flowers could be an option (although the latter might be a tad too expensive). Arizona could choose to invest in a younger player such as Davon House or Buster Skrine, but I’d guess that they’ll take the same approach they did with Cromartie, and wait for a veteran to fall into their lap. That could be Flowers if his market fails to develop, but 32-year-old Tramon Williams seems like the ideal target for the win-now Cardinals.

That strategy — waiting out the market — is how I expect Arizona to approach free agency as whole. The club has a history of stretching a dollar, especially on defense, and though Bowles is no longer around to develop talent, the Cardinals simply don’t have the cap space to target top-tier free agents. Adding complementary players to fill out an already strong core seems like the best avenue for Arizona.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The Cardinals already made a move to lower Fitzgerald’s 2015 cap hit, and they could do the same with other players in the hopes of clearing out cap space. Palmer, for example, has a $9.5MM roster bonus due in March which could be converted into a signing bonus, lowering the QB’s cap charge. Calais Campbell and Veldheer could be candidates for a similar restructuring.

Entering the final year of his rookie deal, Michael Floyd is a candidate to have his fifth-year option picked up. The 25-year-old is coming off a down year in which he caught just 47 passes for 841 yards, but he finished with over 1,000 yards in 2013. He’s always shown flashes of talent, and given that Fitzgerald won’t be around for the long haul, I’d expect the Cardinals to exercise the option.

Washington’s contract status is unclear — some of his contract guarantees probably will void due to his suspension, but it’s hard to speculate what the Cardinals might do with him given that we don’t know the specifics of his deal. Speaking at the combine, Arians said he doesn’t “even think about” Washington. We’ll probably see some sort of resolution with Washington in the near future.

Overall Outlook

The Cardinals could be viewed as a litmus test used to separate optimists from pessimists. The glass half-full perspective: Arizona has won 21 games during the past two years, has a solid head coach and front office in place, and has a record of succeeding in player acquisition. Glass half-empty? The Cardinals are counting on an aging quarterback coming off a second torn ACL, have limited cap space, reside in a tough division, and lost perhaps their best tactician (Bowles) to another job. The 2015 offseason will go long way in determining how that pendulum swings.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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