PFR Originals News & Rumors

Contract Incentives

When I broke down the concept of contract bonuses in a previous PFR Glossary entry, I touched briefly on the idea of contract incentives, but it’s worth taking a more in-depth look at that specific kind of bonus. Whereas a signing bonus is fairly straightforward in its payment and its cap structure, incentives can be used to manipulate a player’s cap hit, and will often alter that player’s cap number after the fact.

At the most basic level, contract incentives are designed to reward a player for his performance — in some cases, these financial rewards are linked to individual or team production, while other incentives can be earned simply by the player earning a spot on his team’s active roster from week to week. These incentives are divided into two categories: Likely to be earned (LTBE) and not likely to be earned (NLTBE).

Under the NFL’s definition, a likely to be earned incentive is generally one that was achieved the year before. So if a running back racked up 1,300 yards on the ground in 2013 and has an incentive in his contract that would reward him for surpassing 1,200 yards in 2014, that incentive is viewed as likely to be earned and counts against his cap hit from the start of the year. On the other hand, a back who has never surpassed 700 rushing yards in a season could have an incentive on his deal for 2014 that would reward him for rushing for 800 yards — such a bonus would be considered not likely to be earned, and wouldn’t count against the player’s cap number.

Because the player’s or team’s performance in a given season dictates whether or not the incentive is actually earned, the player’s cap number is sometimes altered after the fact. For instance, there’d be no change if a player met the criteria for a $50K LTBE incentive, but if he failed to earn that incentive, his team would be credited with $50K in cap room for the following season. Similarly, if a $50K NLTBE incentive isn’t reached, nothing changes, but if a player does earn that incentive, his club’s cap space for the following season is reduced by $50K.

A simple incentive linked to yardage or touchdown totals in a season isn’t too hard to track, but there are more convoluted forms of bonuses. Let’s say a player coming off an injury that limited him to six games played signs a contract that would pay him $500K in per-game roster bonuses. That player would be considered likely to appear in six games, but unlikely to appear in more beyond that. So, of his $500K in roster bonuses, $187,500 would initially count against the cap, as the LTBE portion.

Here are a few more notes on contract incentives and how they work:

  • Any incentive that is considered to be in the player’s sole control, such as weight bonuses, or his presence at workouts, is considered likely to be earned.
  • Any incentive in the first year of a rookie contract is considered likely to be earned.
  • Individual performance incentives can be linked to most basic statistical categories, such as yardage, yards per attempt, and touchdowns. However, more obscure stat categories typically aren’t allowed for individual incentives. For instance, a receiver couldn’t have an incentive tied to receptions of 20+ yards. Meanwhile, a defender could have an incentive linked to sacks or interceptions, but not to tackles for a loss.
  • In some cases, individual performances can also dictate the value of traded draft picks. For example, the future pick changing hands from the Bills to the Eagles will be dependent on the performances of Stevie Johnson for the 49ers and Bryce Brown of the Bills. Those players don’t necessarily have personal incentives in their contracts, but depending on how they perform, Philadelphia could pick up either a 2015 fourth-rounder, a 2016 third-rounder, or a ’16 fourth-rounder.

Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from Russell Street Report, Over The Cap, and Salary Cap 101 was used in the creation of this post.

Is It Time For Another NFL Developmental League?

It has been 7 years since the NFL last dabbled with a developmental league. The 6-team NFL Europa, which began in 1991 as the 10-team World League of American Football, was boarded up in June 2007 after “having hemorrhaged red ink for a 15th straight year,” as ESPN’s Len Pasquarelli aptly described. The league, which had been intended to serve as a farm system of legitimate development for NFL prospects who would have otherwise not had an opportunity to play consistently, had in practice become a loophole that allowed teams to stash players overseas. In fact, NFL Europa’s level of play had sank so low by 2007 that the league’s consensus best player, JT O’Sullivan, found himself in a competition for the Bears’ third string quarterback job after the Europa season ended. Ultimately, the league that was producing neither on-field nor off-field field returns had its plug pulled because its negative cash flow was simply too significant for the notoriously business-savvy NFL owners to ignore.

Roger Goodell swiftly ended the slowly-bleeding-out NFL Europa during his first year of becoming the ninth NFL Commissioner. Why would he want to expend significant time and resources to start a new one?

Troy Vincent, the NFL’s new head of football operations, cited several meaningful benefits that would come with a new developmental league- further training for coaches and officials as well as a laboratory for testing rules to name a few. Additionally, it is undeniable that NFL Europa did manage to develop a few highly impactful NFL talents-most notably quarterbacks Kurt Warner and Jake Delhomme, both of whom started in Super Bowls.

Perhaps most tangibly, a developmental league would provide the NFL with a much larger formal feeder system. Due to significant restrictions to offseason workout and conditioning programs, along with the decision to push the Draft into May, young NFL players have received considerably less formal instruction than has been the norm for decades. With the ongoing NCAA student-athlete unionization process in flux, the collegiate ranks appear to be diminishing as a legitimate feeder league to the NFL. This is due to the tremendously altered post-high school athletics landscape that unionized NCAA athletes would create. As the Washington Post’s Donald Yee described, high school players would likely end up choosing between taking a college stipend or signing on with an NFL developmental body until they become eligible for the NFL Draft.

So times have changed since 2007 and the NFL now has a genuine need for a developmental league, but what would that league look like?

Yee playfully surmises that there might be competing NFL D-leagues, with one perhaps being patronized by sports-inclined billionaires like Larry Ellison and Mark Cuban and another being more formally tied to the NFL. A more realistic future, however, is far less exciting. Vincent stated that the league could manifest itself through several different platforms, such as perhaps a spring league or an NFL Academy. Former NFL GM Phil Savage envisions a regional league that is designed primarily to meet the league’s developmental needs, as opposed to a consumer-facing league that is more geared toward showcasing the NFL’s developing talent. Whatever the course of action that the NFL pursues, the discussion surrounding another developmental league only figures to increase in the coming years.

What do you think? Is it high time for a new NFL developmental league? Or would another D-league flop similarly to NFL Europa?

PFR Originals: 6/1/14 – 6/8/14

Here’s the original content produced by the PFR staff:

  • We continued our Extension Candidate series, as I looked at Bengals QB Andy Dalton (link) and Luke Adams examined Steelers C Maurkice Pouncey (link).
  • Our Trade Candidate series also got underway, as I wrote up Chiefs CB Brandon Flowers (link) and Rory Parks profiled Titans OT Michael Roos (link).
  • Polls during the past week: I asked whether L.A. or London would get an NFL team first (L.A. was the heavy favorite), Zach Links wondered which franchise would be the first to move (with the Rams just edging out the Jaguars and Raiders), Luke questioned whether Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson should get the larger contract extension (with Luck being the preferred option), Luke also asked where free agent TE Jermichael Finley will sign (with the Patriots garnering about 28% of the vote), and Rory queried as to whether the Cowboys should bring back Josh Brent (with about two-thirds saying “no”). Thanks for voting!
  • Luke offered an update on remaining unsigned draft picks; as of June 4, nearly 80% had signed.

Trade Candidate: Michael Roos

As our Luke Adams wrote at the end of May, Titans offensive tackle Michael Roos told Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean that he will be in Tennessee for one more year. As Adams observed, Roos’ statement certainly indicates that an extension is not on the horizon for him, which is not surprising given the four-year deal the team handed out to Michael Oher in free agency and the fact that the team selected Taylor Lewan in the first round of last month’s draft.

Michael Roos

However, whether Roos will, as he says, stay in a Titans uniform for one more season may still be in doubt. Unless someone in the Tennessee front office told Roos that the team planned on keeping him on board, Roos remains a prime candidate to be traded or released. As our Ben Levine pointed out several weeks ago, Roos checked in at number four on NFL.com’s Chris Wesserling’s list of the top 10 players most likely to be traded this summer.

Roos, 31, is entering the final year of a six-year, $43MM deal, and he carries a 2014 salary cap hit of $6.62MM. That salary would make it difficult for Tennessee to deal him, and considering that the team would not take on any dead money by simply cutting Roos, a release is probably more likely than a trade at this point.

It is odd, though, that the team would consider cutting ties with him at all. Although he finished in the middle of the pack among offensive tackles in 2013 according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), he finished as the third-best tackle in 2012 and has anchored the team’s offensive line for years. If nothing else, he provides top-quality depth if Lewan should struggle out of the gate–or if the team wanted to bring Lewan along more slowly–or if Oher should falter (although Roos has not played right tackle since he was a rookie in 2005, it is difficult to believe he would be a downgrade from Oher at that position).

In sum, then, the Titans are in full control of the situation at this point. If they hang onto Roos, they have either a quality starter or an excellent insurance policy. If they need to create come cap space for whatever reason, they can release Roos with no negative cap ramifications. Or, if a team gets desperate enough later on in camp–Wesserling listed the Ravens and Panthers as potential landing spots for Roos if Tennessee were to trade him, and both teams are still unsettled at at least one tackle position–it is possible that the Titans could end up with a late round pick in 2015. A rare win-win-win scenario in today’s NFL.

Photo courtesy of USA TODAY Sports Images

Poll: Should The Cowboys Bring Back Josh Brent?

We learned several days ago that the Cowboys would not rule out the possibility of defensive tackle Josh Brent‘s returning to the team upon his release from jail. Brent, of course, is currently serving a six-month sentence for intoxication manslaughter for his role in a drunken car crash that killed teammate and best friend, Jerry Brown. Brent is set to be released on July 23, and the Cowboys open training camp the next day.

David Moore of the Dallas Morning News lists the pros and cons of Brent’s would-be return. Moore notes that one common refrain among Cowboys fans is that Brent is simply not a good enough player to warrant the public relations nightmare and similar off-field concerns that his comeback would entail. Although Brent started just five games for the team in his three-year career, compiling just 1.5 sacks over that time and no more than 22 tackles in any one season, the fact remains that Dallas’ defense is in dire need of any kind of help.

The Cowboys ran a 3-4 defense when Brent last played for the club, but they now operate out of a 4-3 formation. As a 1-technique lineman in a 4-3 scheme, Brent would not be expected to generate a great deal of pressure on the quarterback, and it is difficult to say if he would provide any sort of upgrade over veterans Nick Hayden and Terrell McClain or rookies Ken Bishop and Davon Coleman.

Of course, Moore writes that neither desperation nor Brent’s talent level–such as it is–should factor into the Cowboys’ decision regarding Brent. He does add, however, that Brown’s mother, Stacey Jackson, has continued to publicly support Brent and has expressed her hope that that team will do the same. Jackson’s support would be something of a crutch for the Cowboys in the court of public opinion if they wanted to bring Brent back into the fold.

In order to do that, there are a number of hurdles to clear. Before training camp began last summer, Brent sent a retirement letter to the league, so he would have to apply for reinstatement. Then there is the question of what punishment commissioner Roger Goodell would levy upon reinstatement. Putting those substantial issues aside for the time being, Moore writes, “The Cowboys appear willing to give Brent a chance to resume his career if that’s what he wants,” but nothing more than that.

So what say you, hivemind? Should the Cowboys bring back Josh Brent?

Extension Candidate: Maurkice Pouncey

Few injuries during the 2013 season were more devastating to a team than Maurkice Pouncey‘s torn ACL and MCL. The anchor in the middle of the Steelers’ offensive line went down with the knee injury in the first week of the regular season, leaving a huge hole to fill at center and depriving him of an opportunity to open his NFL career with four straight Pro Bowl seasons.Maurkice Pouncey

However, Pouncey appears healthy and ready to go for the 2014 season, the last year of his rookie contract. A pair of Steelers beat writers – Ed Bouchette of the Post-Gazette and Alan Robinson of the Tribune-Review – wrote this week that the team figures to make every effort to lock its center up to a new deal before the season gets underway, and that Pouncey represents the Steeler most likely to sign an extension this summer. So it’s worth examining exactly what sort of contract the two sides may negotiate.

Prior to that 2013 season lost to injury, Pouncey had been the Steelers’ starter in the middle of the line since entering the league as the 18th overall pick in 2010. While his three Pro Bowl berths – and a 2011 All-Pro nod – would suggest that he became one of the NFL’s elite centers immediately upon entering the league, Pouncey’s Pro Football Focus grades (subscription required) tell a different story. According to PFF, the Florida product was the 21st-best player at his position in 2010, 19th in 2011, and 12th in 2012.

Pro Football Focus’ grades are hardly the be-all, end-all of player evaluation, particularly at a position where there are so few traditional statistics to evaluate a player’s production. Even so, PFF’s numbers exhibit that at least one metric considers Pouncey to be a player steadily improving toward the ranks of the elite, but one who may not quite be there yet. By comparison, Alex Mack of the Browns, who entered the league one year before Pouncey, has never ranked outside PFF’s top 10 centers, and maxed out at fourth overall in 2013.

Mack makes for a good point of comparison, since he hit free agency this offseason and became the NFL’s highest-paid center by annual average value. The five-year, $42MM offer sheet Mack signed with the Jaguars – which was subsequently matched by Cleveland – works out to $8.4MM per year, slightly edging the annual salaries of other elite centers like Carolina’s Ryan Kalil and Nick Mangold of the Jets. At the time of Mack’s signing, Bouchette suggested that Pouncey could make a case that he should land a deal even larger than that, making him the new highest-paid center in the league.

Still, I’d be a little surprised if Pouncey ultimately inked an extension that exceeded Mack’s $8.4MM per year, Kalil’s $19MM in guaranteed money, or Mangold’s $54.075MM total value. There’s certainly no question that Pouncey deserves to be in the conversation with those players, given all that he’s accomplished early in his career, plus the fact that he’s only entering his age-25 season. But he’s coming off a serious injury, and even before that injury, the data suggested he wasn’t quite playing at the elite level of some of his fellow centers, in spite of the Pro Bowl nods.

While Pouncey should be in line for a very nice payday, I expect him and the Steelers to agree to a price just below where Mack landed. Something in the neighborhood of five years and $40MM, with $15MM+ in guaranteed money, seems fair to me. We’ll have to see if Pouncey and the Steelers agree — if they don’t, and Pittsburgh remains motivated to get a deal done, that price could creep a little higher.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Update On Remaining Unsigned Draftees

By our count, 204 of this year’s 256 draftees (nearly 80%) have formally agreed to terms with their new NFL teams, leaving just 52 unsigned rookies on the board. Since the league’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement leaves little room for negotiation on signing bonus money and the overall value of four-year rookie contracts, teams and players can only quibble on things like guaranteed money and offsets.

As such, it’s no surprise that nearly all the late-round picks, who don’t receive as much guaranteed money, have inked their deals, while the majority of first-rounders still remain unsigned. Here’s a quick breakdown of players by round who have signed:

  • First round: 14 of 32 signed (43.75%)
  • Second round: 20 of 32 signed (62.5%)
  • Third round: 22 of 36 signed (61.11%)
  • Fourth round: 38 of 40 signed (95%)
  • Fifth round: 36 of 36 signed (100%)
  • Sixth round: 37 of 39 signed (94.87%)
  • Seventh round: 37 of 41 signed (90.24%)

So why have all the fifth-rounders signed while there are still a few sixth- and seventh-rounders not yet under contract? One team is responsible — the Rams, who didn’t have a fifth-round pick but who had six selections in the sixth and seventh rounds, have yet to lock up any of their draftees.

A year ago, Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that St. Louis head coach Jeff Fisher wanted to take the team’s rookies through “Financial Planning 101” before those players received their signing bonuses. According to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, the Rams are doing the same thing this year, delaying the signing process to ensure that their players know how to manage their money when they receive it.

While the Rams have yet to formally sign any of their 2014 selections, many teams have already ensured that all of their draftees are under contract. The Ravens, Bills, Bears, Colts, Chiefs, Saints, Chargers, 49ers, Seahawks, and Redskins have locked up their respective draft classes.

Here’s the full list by team of players who have yet to sign their rookie contracts, by our count:

  • Arizona Cardinals: Deone Bucannon, S, Washington State (1.27)
  • Atlanta Falcons: Dezmen Southward, S, Wisconsin (3.68)
  • Carolina Panthers: Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State (1.28); Trai Turner, G, LSU (3.92)
  • Cincinnati Bengals: Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State (1.24)
  • Cleveland Browns: Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State (1.8); Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M (1.22); Joel Bitonio, OT, Nevada (2.35); Christian Kirksey, LB, Iowa (3.71); Terrance West, RB, Towson (3.94)
  • Dallas CowboysZack Martin, OT, Notre Dame (1.16); Demarcus Lawrence, DE/OLB, Boise State (2.34)
  • Denver Broncos: Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State (1.31)
  • Detroit Lions: Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina (1.10); Kyle Van Noy, LB, BYU (2.40)
  • Green Bay Packers: Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State (2.53); Richard Rodgers, TE, California (3.98)
  • Houston Texans: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina (1.1); Xavier Su’a-Filo, G, UCLA (2.33)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles, QB, UCF (1.3); Marqise Lee, WR, USC (2.39); Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State (2.61); Brandon Linder, G, Miami (FL) (3.93)
  • Miami Dolphins: Ja’Wuan James, OT, Tennessee (1.19); Jarvis Landry, WR, LSU (2.63); Billy Turner, OT, North Dakota State (3.67)
  • Minnesota Vikings: Jerick McKinnon, RB, Georgia Southern (3.96)
  • New England Patriots: Dominique Easley, DT, Florida (1.29)
  • New York Giants: Jay Bromley, DT, Syracuse (3.74)
  • New York Jets: Dexter McDougle, CB, Maryland (3.80)
  • Oakland Raiders: Gabe Jackson, G, Mississippi State (3.81)
  • Philadelphia Eagles: Marcus Smith, DE/OLB, Louisville (1.26)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers: Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State (1.15); Stephon Tuitt, DE, Notre Dame (2.46); Dri Archer, RB, Kent State (3.97); Martavis Bryant, WR, Clemson (4.119)
  • St. Louis Rams: Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn (1.2); Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh (1.13); Lamarcus Joyner, CB, Florida State (2.41); Tre Mason, RB, Auburn (3.75); Maurice Alexander, S, Utah State (4.110); E.J. Gaines, CB, Missouri (6.188); Garrett Gilbert, QB, SMU (6.214); Mitchell Van Dyk, OT, Portland State (7.226); Christian Bryant, S, Ohio State (7.241); Michael Sam, DE/OLB, Missouri (7.249); Demetrius Rhaney, C, Tennessee State (7.250)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M (1.7); Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington (2.38); Charles Sims, RB, West Virginia (3.69)
  • Tennessee TitansTaylor Lewan, OT, Michigan (1.11); Bishop Sankey, RB, Washington (2.54)

Trade Candidate: Brandon Flowers

Days before last month’s draft, reports surfaced indicating that Chiefs cornerback Brandon Flowers was a trade possibility as Kansas City looked to acquire more picks. Such a deal never occurred, but rumors persist that Flowers is a poor fit for Chiefs defensive coordinator Bob Sutton’s scheme. Flowers wasn’t present for last week’s OTAs, leading many to wonder if he was angling for clarification regarding his role and future with the team.NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles

A trade of Flowers would have to clear several hurdles, first of which would be his play in 2013. Though Flowers, who accrued one interception and 65 tackles in 13 games last season, was selected as a Pro Bowler, advanced metrics show he was anything but — his -5.9 Pro Football Focus grade (subscription required) ranked him as just the 87th-best CB in the league last year. However, PFF rated Flowers as a top-10 corner in both 2011 and 2012, so perhaps the scheme concerns are valid (2013 was Sutton’s first year in Kansas City).

The Chiefs, having gone 11-5 in 2013, are a team in win-now mode, so ridding themselves of a talented player like Flowers might not be the most ideal route. Sans Flowers, Kansas City would be left with Sean Smith and Marcus Cooper as starters, with rookie Phillip Gaines manning the slot — not exactly the most exciting trifecta. Another season learning Sutton’s defense could only help, and with more experience in the system, Flowers might flourish and begin to exhibit his prowess once again.

The final, and most pressing, issue regarding a trade of Flowers is his contract, which is set to pay him base salaries totaling $18MM over the next three seasons. He is also due $4MM in roster bonuses and $500K in workout bonuses during that span. It could be tough to find a team willing to assume that responsibility, especially given Flowers’ lackluster play last year. Additionally, Flowers hasn’t been the most durable player over his career (having played the entire 16-game slate only once, in 2011), so a team probably wouldn’t feel comfortable paying for a player who can’t stay on the field.

For the Chiefs, a trade of Flowers could help alleviate their salary cap situation. Currently sitting at about $3.5MM under the cap, Kansas City could use the money saved by trading Flowers on extensions for quarterback Alex Smith or linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. While Flowers has a pretty good track record, and is still young at 28, the value of freeing up cap room cannot be overstated. While cornerback is certainly a premier position in today’s passing league, the ability to retain Smith is probably more enticing in Kansas City.

Most teams could use another talented corner on their roster, but Flowers’ salary limits his potential destinations. The Jets have the cap room to bring in Flowers, but he probably wouldn’t fit in Rex Ryan’s scheme. Two teams that pop out as fits are the Buccaneers and the Titans, each of whom lost an excellent corner during the offseason (Darrelle Revis and Alterraun Verner, respectively). Both franchises have the financial wherewithal to make such a move, and Flowers would be a welcome addition to either team’s defensive backfield.

Having said that, I still think a trade is unlikely. The salary obligations and Flowers’ subpar 2013 season make him a risky investment. If a trade were to occur, I wouldn’t expect Kansas City to receive more than a fifth-round pick, at the very best.

Data from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Andy Dalton

When the Bengals passed on Teddy Bridgewater with the No. 24 pick in last month’s draft, and subsequently waited until the fifth round before drafting a signal-caller (Alabama’s A.J. McCarron), they seemed to send a strong message: Andy Dalton is Cincinnati’s quarterback for the foreseeable future.NFL: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Dalton, selected in the second round of the 2011 draft, has achieved immediate success in the Queen City, leading the Bengals to a 30-18 record and three playoff appearances (0-3 record) during his first three seasons in the league, averaging nearly 3,800 yards passing, 27 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in that span. Advanced metrics rate Dalton as average — Football Outsiders ranked Dalton as the 17th-best QB by DYAR in 2014, while Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded him as 16th-best. The PFF rating, however, illustrates Dalton’s maddening inconsistency — in 2014, he finished three weeks with a +5.0 or better grade, while five other weeks saw him earn a -3.0 or worse mark.

The Bengals, for their part, have a recent history of being willing to pay for performance, as evidenced by extensions for Andrew Whitworth, Carlos Dunlap, and Leon Hall. In March, team owner Mike Brown spoke about Dalton’s situation, saying “If it turns out it can’t be made to work we will do something elsewhere. I don’t think we plan to go another year the way we did this year.” Whether that means Cincinnati would be willing to slap the franchise tag on Dalton in 2015 is unclear, but Brown is well aware that the free agent market for quarterbacks is more often than not barren, meaning Dalton is the likely the team’s best, and perhaps only, answer at the position.

Cincinnati also has other premier players whom they would like to like to retain — receiver A.J. Green, whose 2015 option was exercised, and linebacker Vontaze Burfict, with whom the Bengals are discussing an extension. While the team currently has over $24MM in cap space, new contracts for Green, Burfict, and Dalton could stretch the Bengals’ budget.

In looking for a precedent, the Bengals could look at recent extensions given to fellow quarterbacks Tony Romo and Jay Cutler. Romo signed a seven-year, $108MM deal with the Cowboys in March 2013, which contained $55MM guaranteed. While Romo has outperformed Dalton since the latter entered the league in 2011, he is eight years older than the Bengals QB. Cutler agreed to a seven-year, $126.7MM contract in January 2014, with $54MM in guarantees. Cutler and Dalton have comparable statistics, though Dalton has been healthier and is five years younger.

More potential quarterback extensions are seemingly on the horizon, each of which could affect Dalton’s value. Alex Smith is reportedly asking for $18MM per season, Colin Kaepernick could aim for a $20MM AAV, and a Cam Newton contract could surpass each of those potential deals.

With the Bengals taking a pass on adding legitimate competition for Dalton, an extension seems to be the likeliest of outcomes. While the Bengals probably aren’t willing to give Dalton a $20MM AAV, I could see them examining Dalton’s regular-season success, the randomness of playoff losses, and the lack of enticing alternatives, and handing Dalton a contract in line with what Cutler received: $18-19MM per season, with $50-60MM in guarantees. Such a deal, as opposed to a 2015 franchise tag, would probably give the Bengals the room to negotiate contracts for Green and Burfict, keeping intact a core that could keep Cincinnati competitive for years to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 5/25/14 – 6/1/14

Here’s the original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • Our Extension Candidate series rolled along, as Rory Parks examined Buccaneers DT Gerald McCoy (link) and Zach Links looked at both Falcons WR Roddy White (link) and Chiefs QB Alex Smith (link). You can find all the Extension Candidate reports here.
  • In last week’s polls, Ben Levine asked about likely trade candidates (link) and Peter Sowards wondered who will win the backup quarterback job with the Bears (link).
  • David Kipke wrote about the 49ers’ offensive line, and the tough decisions they may to make on players like Alex Boone and Mike Iupati.
  • Luke Adams scrutinized the importance of June 1 in the NFL, and why we could see more free agent signings in the coming weeks.
  • Luke also explored the largest 2014 cap hits, both on offense and on defense/special teams.
  • Rory delved into which free agents could be most impacted by the impending June 1 deadline.