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Extension Candidate: Mike Iupati

By | at July 20, 2014 4:42 pm

The 49ers have been forced to pick their battles when it comes to handing out fresh contracts — while they have yet to pony up new money for Vernon Davis or Alex Boone, San Francisco has extended both Colin Kaepernick and Joe Staley, and seem likely to do the same for Michael Crabtree (whom PFR’s Luke Adams examined as an extension candidate last week). Guard Mike Iupati appears to be on the outside looking in when it comes to a new deal; his contract, which is set to pay him a base salary of $2.97MM, expires after 2014, and it’s unlikely he will return to the Bay Area.Mike Iupati

Offensive guard isn’t typically a highly-valued position, even when the player in question is as talented as Iupati. As Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, only eight guards have been selected in the first round of the draft since 2000. Additionally, the 49ers have already heavily invested along the offensive line, handing both Staley and right tackle Anthony Davis new contracts over the past 18 months, so the team, with only about $5MM in cap space with which to work, might be wary about pouring more money into its front five.

Additionally, San Francisco has set itself up well in the event that Iupati does leave via free agency. In fact, the team held “behind-closed-doors conversations” last season regarding its options if Iupati leaves, according to Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com. In May, with their seemingly endless supply of draft picks, the 49ers added viable guard replacements in the third round. Pick No. 70 Marcus Martin was viewed as one of the top centers available in the draft, but if Daniel Kilgore cements that position for San Francisco, Martin could conceivably be shifted to guard. Clemson product Brandon Thomas, picked 30 spots after Martin, is a natural guard, but will miss the upcoming season after tearing his ACL during predraft workouts. He’ll be ready for the 2015 opener, however, and his presence could allow San Francisco to let Iupati walk.

In the likely event that the Iupati departs the 49ers, he will draw plenty of interest around the league. After being selected with the 17th pick in 2010, the 27-year-old Iupati has started 60 out of a possible 64 games. He was selected to the Pro Bowl in both 2012 and 2013, and was named an All-Pro in 2012. Pro Football Focus’ metrics (subscription required) have fluctuated on Iupati: During his first three seasons, Iupati never ranked lower than 13th among guards, and topped out at 5th overall in 2012. Last season, however, Iupati fell all the way to 35th at his position, largely due to his subpar pass blocking grade.

2013’s poor performance aside, Iupati is in line for a hefty payday, with Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee opining that Iupati could become the highest-paid guard in the league. Working in his favor is the lack of competition among prospective free agents at his position group next offseason. The Broncos’ Orlando Franklin had a nice season as a tackle last season, and if he succeeds in his transition to guard, could be looking at large contract. The rest of the 2015 free agent guard class, however, is filled with second- and third-tier options like Jeromey Clary, Willie Colon, James Carpenter, and Lance Louis.

Currently, the highest-paid guards in the league on an average annual value basis are Carl Nicks, Logan Mankins, and Jahri Evans, who earn $9.5MM, $8.5MM, and $8.1MM, respectively. Nicks also received the largest guarantee at $25MM, good for an guarantee per year of $5MM; 52.6% of his contract was guaranteed. After those three players, the total values and guarantees fall quickly into a second tier, Andy Levitre, Ben Grubbs, and Josh Sitton all earning between $6.5-8MM per season.

Iupati’s new deal will almost certainly fall into the first tier of guards. After his declining level of play in 2013, a lot hinges on his 2014 performance. With a solid season, I could see him topping Nicks’ contract, and perhaps even cracking the $10MM per season barrier. He could be looking at a guarantee in the neighborhood of $26-28MM. It’s a lot of money for a non-premier position, but I think Iupati is well-regarded enough around the league that a bidding war could ensue. Even with a lackluster season, Iupati should still match Evans’ $8.1MM average salary.

An extension with the 49ers can’t be completely ignored. Perhaps Iupati wants to stay in San Francisco, where he plays on perhaps the league’s best offensive line. The Niners’ coaching staff and front office are solid, and the team is expected to remain competitive for some time. If that means enough to Iupati, maybe he would take a discount to stay in San Francisco. But the more likely scenario entails him leaving the Bay Area, and seeking the highest contract for his services.

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PFR Originals: 7/13/14 – 7/20/14

By | at July 20, 2014 2:11 pm

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • We continued our Offseason in Review series, as Rory Parks covered the Lions, David Kipke covered the Packers, and Zach Links evaluated the Bears and the Redskins.
  • Prior to Jimmy Graham‘s new deal with the Saints, Luke Adams took a look at the potential outcomes for the tight end.
  • In our latest Free Agent Stock Watch piece, Rory profiled receiver Santonio Holmes, who is still looking for a job after being released by the Jets in March.
  • Zach rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
  • Our Extension Candidate series plugged along, as Luke examined the case for 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree.
  • Alex Boone and Vernon Davis are both unhappy with their current contracts, and Crabtree and Mike Iupati are among the other 49ers who could be searching for new deals. With that in mind, Zach asked which Niners will get extensions. Thanks for voting!
  • I spoke with Chris Kluwe‘s lawyer, Clayton Halunen, as the former punter prepares his lawsuit against the Vikings following his 2012 release.
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Offseason In Review: Washington Redskins

By | at July 18, 2014 1:10 pm

Notable signings:

Notable losses:

Trades:

  • Acquired a second-round pick (No. 47) and a third-round pick (No. 78) from the Cowboys in exchange for a second-round pick (No. 34).
  • Acquired a sixth-round pick (No. 186) and a seventh-round pick (No. 228) from the Titans in exchange for a sixth-round pick (No. 178).

Draft picks:

  • Trent Murphy, LB, Stanford (2.47): Signed
  • Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia (3.66): Signed
  • Spencer Long, G, Nebraska (3.78): Signed
  • Bashaud Breeland, CB, Clemson (4.102): Signed
  • Ryan Grant, WR, Tulane (5.142): Signed
  • Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor (6.186): Signed
  • Ted Bolser, TE, Indiana (7.217): Signed
  • Zach Hocker, K, Arkansas (7.228): Signed

Other:

  • Hired Jay Gruden as head coach.
  • Promoted tight ends coach Sean McVay to offensive coordinator.
  • Exercised Ryan Kerrigan‘s fifth-year option for 2015 ($7.038MM).
  • U.S. Patent Office canceled Redskins trademark.
  • Tanard Jackson suspended indefinitely again.
  • Signed 14 rookie free agents after the draft.

Okay, so things didn’t go quite as planned in 2013 in the nation’s capital. The Redskins finished with their worst record since 1994, canned coach Mike Shanahan after four seasons, and waged what might be a losing PR battle against those who want them to change their nickname. In more ways than one, this is a team in search of its true identity."<strong

While John Gruden has been connected to multiple openings in recent years, but it was younger brother Jay Gruden who was hired to be a head coach in 2014. The former Bengals offensive coordinator and longtime arena football mainstay is also an ex-quarterback and the Redskins are hopeful that he’ll click with Robert Griffin III better than his predecessor did last season. The game is bigger than one person, but the Redskins won’t get far if Gruden can’t get RGIII back to his 2012 form.

Between the player-friendly Gruden and the arrival of former Eagles receiver DeSean Jackson, RGIII won’t have many excuses in 2014. After he was cut by Philly, the Redskins gave Jackson what amounts to a three-year pact worth ~$24MM, with $16MM fully guaranteed. The average annual value and guarantee are higher than what Eric Decker got from the Jets and shows how important it was for the Redskins to get another weapon in the passing game. Last year, Pierre Garcon led the league with 181 targets and many of those looks figure to transfer over to Jackson this season. Jackson should also pick up more attention from opposing secondaries, opening things up more for Garcon and others. The only person in D.C. who might not be thrilled about the arrival of Jackson might be fellow free agent addition Andre Roberts. Roberts was often overshadowed in Arizona by Larry Fitzgerald and, at times, Michael Floyd, and came to the Redskins in hopes of occupying the No. 2 WR role. Jackson’s arrival bumps him down the depth chart a bit and barring injury, there’s no way he’ll see the kind of target total he was hoping for. Impressively, the Redskins were able to add Jackson and Roberts to their receiving corps while losing only Dezmon Briscoe and Josh Morgan.

While Jackson and Gruden should bring change to the offense, the bulk of the Redskins’ change came on the other side of the football this offseason. The Redskins added defensive tackle Jason Hatcher on a four-year, $27.5MM deal. The 32-year-old was a valuable member of the Cowboys, recording 19.5 sacks on both the interior and exterior over the past three years. However, Dallas’ cap situation kept them from competing to retain his services. In support of defensive line starters Hatcher, Barry Coefield, and Jarvis Jenkins, the Redskins retained Chris Baker and added former Eagles lineman Clifton Geathers. Both players can play on the inside and outside, giving the Redskins additional versatility off the bench.

London Fletcher decided to hang ’em up after the 2013 season, but there’s still plenty of stability in the linebacking corps. The Redskins used the franchise tender on Brian Orakpo, giving him a fully guaranteed one-year, $11.45MM deal. The Redskins could have also worked out a new deal to lock him up for years to come, but that deadline came and went this week. Orakpo ranked fourth among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2013 according to Pro Football Focus’ metrics (subscription required). Ryan Kerrigan, who was a Pro Bowler in 2012, will be back alongside him after the Redskins exercised his fifth-year option at just over $7MM. The 25-year-old turned in 8.5 sacks in each of the last two seasons and even though PFF’s metrics weren’t as kind to him in 2013 as they were in 2012, Kerrigan is still a force that can help put pressure on opposing QBs. Perry Riley will also be back in the fold after signing a three-year, $12MM ($5MM guaranteed) pact.

Longtime Redskins safety Reed Doughty is no longer with the team and a couple of notable veterans are slated to start at safety for the Skins this season. Ryan Clark and Brandon Meriweather both came aboard on highly reasonable one-year make-good deals. Meriweather, who re-signed for just $1MM, was the Redskins’ choice as they weren’t enamored with the second-tier safeties available on the open market. Playing free safety and strong safety for the Redskins in 2013, Meriweather logged 69 tackles and a pair of interceptions in 13 games. However, he ranked just 77th out of 86 qualified safeties according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required). Clark, who was Troy Polamalu‘s partner in crime in Pittsburgh for years, agreed to terms with Washington in early April. The 34-year-old had a career-high 104 tackles to go along with two interceptions in 2013 and Washington got him for just over $1MM when factoring in the signing bonus. Cornerback Tracy Porter, who appeared to be getting pretty cozy with the Giants, joined up with the Redskins following a strong year for Oakland. He’ll look to keep receivers in check with DeAngelo Hall, back on a four-year, $17MM deal, manning the other side of the field.

This wasn’t an offseason of tremendous on-the-field change for the Redskins, but what they needed more than anything was a new voice in the locker room and another offensive weapon. They got just that in Gruden and Jackson, respectively. Now it’s time for Washington to get back on track.

Spotrac and Over The Cap were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Chicago Bears

By | at July 17, 2014 6:05 pm

Notable signings:

Notable losses:

Extensions and restructures:

Trades:

  • Acquired a fourth-round pick (No. 131) and a seventh-round pick (No. 246) from the Broncos in exchange for a fifth-round pick (No. 156) and a 2015 fifth-round pick.

Draft picks:

  • Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech (1.14): Signed
  • Ego Ferguson, DT, LSU (2.51): Signed
  • Will Sutton, DT, Arizona State (3.82): Signed
  • Ka’Deem Carey, RB, Arizona (4.117): Signed
  • Brock Vereen, S, Minnesota (4.131): Signed
  • David Fales, QB, San Jose State (6.183): Signed
  • Pat O’Donnell, P, Miami (FL) (6.191): Signed
  • Charles Leno Jr., OT, Boise State (7.246): Signed

Other:

After an 8-8 season and their third straight campaign without a playoff appearance, the Bears are looking to turn things around in a big way in 2014. As evidenced by the lengthy catalog of their moves above, few teams were busier this offseason than Chicago.

Jay Cutler missed a good chunk of last season, opening the door for the emergence of backup quarterback Josh McCown. As the pouty signal caller was set to hit the open market, many wondered if the Bears might instead opt to roll with McCown and let their longtime starter go elsewhere. However, early on in the New Year, General Manager Phil Emery announced that the Bears signed Cutler to a new contract worth a reported $126MM over seven years with $38MM guaranteed. The Bears are ostensibly happy about the new deal and Cutler must be over the moon, but not everyone was crazy about the contract. Cutler hasn’t played a full season since 2009 and while he’s getting paid like Tony Romo (the contracts are quite similar), he doesn’t have the same kind of yardage totals as the Cowboys QB. So why pay that kind of money for a quarterback who has just one career playoff victory to his credit and doesn’t have the stats of others at his pay grade? There are a few reasons. The Bears are banking on Cutler holding up better than he has in recent years, which would go a long way towards making his contract worthwhile. Those yardage totals should also spike under the continued tutelage of pass-happy head coach Marc Trestman. And, while the payout is high over a seven year period, it’s unlikely that Cutler ever sees the later years of that contract. The reality is that there aren’t a ton of high-quality quarterbacks out there in today’s NFL and Chicago understandably felt more comfortable with Cutler than 35-year-old journeyman McCown.Jared Allen

Cutler has a better chance of staying on the field if his offensive line holds up and the new four-year deal for guard Matt Slauson will help with that effort. Chicago agreed to sign the former Jets lineman to a $12.8MM deal with $3.9MM guaranteed before other teams had the opportunity to steal him away. After free agent guards like Geoff Schwartz, Jon Asamoah, and Shaun Lauvao signed deals with higher average annual values on the open market, Slauson’s deal looks pretty solid. He wasn’t much of a force during his time with Gang Green but he has blossomed into a very solid offensive guard for Chicago and should continue to be for years to come.

The Bears and Brandon Marshall agreed to a contract extension in May that allowed for Chicago to lock down one of the game’s best wide receivers. The deal gives Marshall $30.1MM in new money and will pay him $15MM in 2014. The veteran also made NFL history by becoming the first NFL player to announce his new contract on “The View.” Whoopi Goldberg opined that Marshall is the kind of high-end receiver needed to help make Trestman’s fast-paced passing offense succeed. Joy Behar also gave a thumbs up to Emery, citing Marshall’s league leading 33.0 rating on Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

The real overhaul came on the other side of the football where the Bears added two impact defensive ends. The Bears signed former Raiders DE Lamarr Houston after he turned in a career year with 56 tackles, 6 sacks, and two forced fumbles. The Bears’ run defense left much to be desired in 2013 and the addition of Houston should go a long way towards fixing that issue. To help beef up the pass rush, the Bears edged out the defending champion Seahawks and other interested suitors to land Jared Allen. Allen, 31, may not be quite as fearsome as he was in his prime, but he remained productive and durable in 2013, recording 11.5 sacks in his last season with the Vikings. It was the sixth straight year in which Allen had started all 16 regular season contests for the team, and the seventh consecutive season he’d notched 11 or more sacks. Pro Football Focus’ metrics ranked the veteran fifth overall among 4-3 defensive ends in ’13 and is out to prove that he’s very much prepared to continue as a full-time player. The Bears will also have Willie Young, who started for the Lions last season, there in support of Allen and Houston. The Bears were forced to make Julius Peppers a cap casualty in March, but they made up for it with some very notable additions.

The Bears shiny new bookends should be exciting to watch but it’s hard to say whether the defensive line will succeed as a whole after the departure of Henry Melton. The loss of Melton to the Cowboys hurts. While missed most of 2013, he made 14 starts and racked up a career high 31 tackles with six sacks en route to his first Pro Bowl in 2012 and showed a great deal of potential. In his place, the Bears will now count on former Cowboy Jay Ratliff along with the returning Stephen Paea and second-round picks Ego Ferguson and Will Sutton.

There are some new faces on the defensive line, but the Bears managed to keep some stability in their secondary by re-signing Tim Jennings and Charles Tillman. Jennings could have potentially found a nice deal if he put his toe in the free agency pool, but that was far from a certainty given that he’s on the wrong side of 30. Over the last two seasons, Jennings has 13 picks and 104 tackles to his credit, so Chicago was happy to lock him down before he hit the open market. However, one has to wonder if the Bears could have retained him for less if they let him collect offers from other clubs first. There is some change of note at safety with Ryan Mundy – who was signed to a reasonable two-year, $3MM deal – former Packer M.D. Jennings and ex-Cardinals safety Adrian Wilson in reserve roles.

All things considered, much of the Bears’ success will probably hinge on the overhauled defensive line and the health of Jay Cutler. If things fall into place for Chicago, there’s no reason why they can’t come out on top of the NFC North in 2014.

Spotrac and Over The Cap were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Extension Candidate: Michael Crabtree

By | at July 17, 2014 1:17 pm

While several players will likely sign extensions before hitting free agency in March, the current crop of wide receivers eligible to be unrestricted free agents in 2015 is impressive. Demaryius Thomas of the Broncos, Dez Bryant of the Cowboys, and pair of Packers wideouts – Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb – lead a talented group of pass catchers who will certainly cash in if and when they reach the open market.Michael Crabtree

One of the most intriguing names in the group is Michael Crabtree of the 49ers. Richard Sherman‘s arch-nemesis underwent surgery in the spring of 2013 to repair a torn Achilles tendon, and the injury ultimately sidelined Crabtree for a sizable chunk of the regular season — he didn’t return to the field until December.

In 2012, Crabtree enjoyed a breakout season catching balls from Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, establishing new career highs in receptions (85), receiving yards (1,105), and touchdowns (9). He was just as dynamic in the postseason, compiling 285 yards and three touchdowns through the air and helping San Francisco reach the Super Bowl, where he nearly hauled in a game-winning touchdown on the team’s final drive.

Had he continued to build on 2012’s success last season, Crabtree would be eyeing a contract extension that places him among the NFL’s highest-paid receivers, and would be challenging Thomas and Bryant to earn the largest contract among in the free agent wideout class of 2015. As is, the Texas Tech product may still be seeking such a deal, but his lost 2013 season clouds his value a little.

There’s no doubt that Crabtree, who turns 27 in December, has proven to be a talented and dangerous downfield threat, and is an important part of a 49ers offense whose passing game often struggled last year when he was sidelined. As Crabtree enters a contract year, the club should be interested in working out a new deal to ensure he remains in San Francisco catching balls from Kaepernick for years to come. But 2012 was the first and only season in which it all really came together for the former 10th overall pick, so the modest overall receiving numbers on his career résumé could hurt his leverage in contract negotiations.

A look at other contracts on the Niners’ books suggest that Crabtree could run into further roadblocks in negotiations. Vernon Davis and Alex Boone are among the players who have already taken a more active stance in pursuing new contracts this year, having skipped the club’s spring workouts and minicamp. As such, addressing those potential extensions may be a priority for the 49ers before they get around to entering serious discussions with Crabtree.

Additionally, the new deal signed by Kaepernick earlier this offseason was a fairly team-friendly one, with only about $13MM of the contract’s total $114MM value guaranteed at the time of its signing. While the structure of that extension may not have an impact on signings around the league, the Niners will have it in their back pocket when they negotiate extensions with other players, able to point out that the team’s leader was willing to make something of a sacrifice on his new contract.

While these factors will all come into play, none of them are significant enough to diminish Crabtree’s value significantly. The largest deals signed by receivers this offseason – Eric Decker‘s $7.25MM per year contract ($15MM guaranteed) and DeSean Jackson‘s $8MM per year deal ($16MM guaranteed) – should be a floor for Crabtree, barring another major injury or a disappointing 2014 season. The Niners pass-catcher may not find himself among the top five highest-paid wideouts in 2015 and beyond, but something in the neighborhood of Greg Jennings‘ current deal ($9MM annually, $17.8MM guaranteed) could make sense, and there’s certainly potential for something even bigger.

Ultimately, considering the club has other contracts to address and Crabtree is coming off an injury-shortened 2013 campaign, I’d expect the Niners to take their time negotiating an extension, unless they can lock up the wideout at a bargain price this summer. A full, healthy 2014 season for Crabtree would go a long way toward re-establishing his value, and could make the club even more confident to invest in him in the new year, either via a long-term extension or the franchise tag.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Santonio Holmes

By | at July 14, 2014 10:04 pm

Veteran wide receiver Santonio Holmes is perhaps the biggest name left on the free agent market at the moment. Holmes was released by the Jets in March, but it is unclear if any team has made contact with him since then. In May, we learned that Holmes has interest in returning to his first club, the Steelers, but it does not appear as though the interest is mutual at this point.

Santonio Holmes

Holmes, who established himself as an electrifying playmaker and Super Bowl hero with Pittsburgh, saw very little success after signing a lucrative free agent deal with the Jets. During his four seasons in New York, Holmes totaled a meager 2,128 total yards. Of course, not all of that was entirely his fault. The Jets’ quarterback play has been shaky at best in recent years, and Holmes suffered through injury as well, appearing in just 15 games over the past two seasons.

Nonetheless, Holmes’ attitude has also negatively impacted his value as he searches for a new team and a fresh start. As one unnamed front office executive said last month, “We’d have to look more closely at what happened in New York with him in the locker room.” And Holmes’ trainer, Tom Shaw, recently said that Holmes would find a team this season–if he can find one that doesn’t think he would be a distraction.

There is no doubt that Holmes still offers some intriguing upside. Even though injuries and age–he turned 30 in March–have combined to take away some of his explosiveness, he could still be effectively utilized as a playmaking threat out of the slot, and getting a fresh start after his disastrous stint in the Meadowlands can only help. Improved maturity, which Shaw believes Holmes has demonstrated, would also go a long way.

He will probably have to wait until someone suffers a training camp injury to demonstrate that he has, in fact, matured, and that he still has some of the ability that once made him a favorite target of Ben Roethlisberger. Anticipating Holmes’ release in February, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk suggested the Cardinals, Rams, and Steelers as potential destinations for Holmes, but that was based more upon speculation than anything else. Assuming an injury does indeed claim a wideout in training camp, Holmes will begin to look a lot more appealing to the afflicted club. At that point, he will look like a low-cost, high-upside risk that might just pay off in a big way in 2014.

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Offseason In Review: Green Bay Packers

By | at July 14, 2014 8:41 pm

Notable signings:

Notable losses:

Draft picks:

  • Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama (1.21): Signed
  • Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State (2.53): Signed
  • Khyri Thornton, DT, Southern Miss (3.85): Signed
  • Richard Rodgers, TE, California (3.98): Signed
  • Carl Bradford, OLB, Arizona State (4.121): Signed
  • Corey Linsley, C, Ohio State (5.161): Signed
  • Jared Abbrederis, WR, Wisconsin (5.176): Signed
  • Demetri Goodson, CB, Baylor (6.197): Signed
  • Jeff Janis, WR, Saginaw Valley State (7.236): Signed

Other:

The Packers’ 2013 season was going smoothly until Week 9, when Aaron Rodgers sustained a broken collarbone. Including the ensuing loss to the Bears, the Packers proceeded to utterly collapse, going on a 2-5-1 stretch that featured a tie with a cellar-dwelling Vikings team. During the slide, Rodgers was replaced by the likes of Seneca Wallace, practice squad call-up Scott Tolzien, and Matt Flynn, whose career with the Packers had been interrupted by quick, subsequent stints with the Seahawks, Raiders, and Bills. A triumphant return from Rodgers in the team’s Week 17 matchup against the Bears culminated with the former MVP’s touchdown pass to Randall Cobb in the last minute of the game, which not only provided one of the most iconic plays of the 2013 season — it also sent the 8-7-1 Packers to the playoffs. A hard-luck Wild Card qualifier, the 12-4 49ers, traveled to Green Bay and narrowly defeated the Packers, sending them into the offseason with bright prospects for 2014.

On offense, Rodgers continued to solidify himself as one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL while one of his receivers – Cobb – stepped into Greg Jennings‘ vacated spotlight and emerged as one of the league’s most special talents. Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and late-season revelation Jarrett Boykin rounded out one of the best receiving corps in the NFC. On the ground, rookie running back Eddie Lacy proved to be more than worth the second-round pick that the Packers spent on him last Spring. To add to the rushing attack, Lacy was effectively spelled by veteran James Starks.

Defensively, the team struggled after GM Ted Thompson had failed to address what many considered to be the team’s primary need during the 2013 offseason: a new safety. The unit performed poorly across the board, finishing 24th in pass defense and 25th in rush defense. The team’s once-feared multi-level tandem of B.J. Raji and A.J. Hawk were shadows of their former selves in Dom Capers‘ 3-4 base defense. Clearly, most of Green Bay’s needs heading into the 2014 offseason were on the defensive side of the ball.

Thompson’s defensive moves this offeason started with his decision to stand by Capers, instead making changes at the player level. Substantial help arrived for Capers’ unit via both free agency and the draft. Thompson went out and signed superstar defensive end Julius Peppers, who, despite being past his peak, still presents a significant threat along the line. As talented as he is, Peppers’ fit into the 3-4 – a formation he’s yet to encounter in the NFL – will be something to watch during the 2014 season.

In the draft, the Packers’ were delighted to have Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, the consensus All-American safety from Alabama, fall to them at 21st overall in the first round. Clinton-Dix will look to step in and start immediately in a secondary that badly needed the help. The club also managed to re-sign by far the most valuable member of that secondary, cornerback Sam Shields, and added depth to the interior of the defensive line, retaining the fast-fading Raji and bringing Letroy Guion to back up Raji at nose tackle.

Offensively, the Packers made up ground in some areas and appeared to take steps backward in others. Although they lost Jones via free agency, the receiving corps was refurbished in the draft with wide receivers Davante Adams, Jared Abbrederis, and Jeff Janis, along with tight end Richard Rogers. This receiving-heavy rookie class has the potential to blossom into the next great generation of Packers’ pass catchers, who have benefited from the signal-calling of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers.

Up front, Thompson raised several eyebrows by not re-signing center Evan Dietrich-Smith, who had been publicly endorsed by Rodgers heading into the offseason. Second-year center J.C. Tretter, who once played tight end at Cornell, will look to fill the void left by Dietrich-Smith. The Packers also received some big help along the o-line with the return of tackle Bryan Bulaga, who tore his ACL last August.

The Packers will head into the season as favorites to make the playoffs out of the NFC North. Any competent team led by Rodgers has the potential to win a Super Bowl. Throw in a potential juggernaut offensive cast around Rodgers and an improved, passable defense, and it’s easy to see why many consider the Packers to be one of the best teams in the NFC heading into the 2014 season. Because they must play the AFC East and NFC South, two relatively top-heavy divisions that will likely produce a few particularly tough match-ups, 12 wins and another NFC North title seems a fair prediction for the Packers.

Spotrac and Over The Cap were used in the creation of this post.

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Deadline Looming For Saints, Jimmy Graham

By | at July 14, 2014 8:31 am

Four months after most of this year’s top free agents landed new deals, Jimmy Graham remains unsigned, having been franchised by the Saints. After a dispute over his position, which resulted in Graham receiving the tight end tag ($7.035MM) rather than one for a wide receiver ($12.312MM), the two sides are working toward a long-term agreement, but are running out of time to reach a deal. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect from the Graham situation this week and beyond:

Appeal deadline:Jimmy Graham

Graham had 10 days to appeal the decision made by arbitrator Stephen Burbank, who ruled that the Saints star is a tight end rather than a wide receiver. It was believed that deadline would be on Saturday, since the ruling broke on July 2. However, as Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reported last week, Graham’s camp believes the deadline is actually today, since they didn’t receive the decision until July 3, and the NFL’s office is closed on Sundays.

Presumably, Graham’s camp would have double-checked to make sure that today is the actual deadline, so we’ll assume for now that they’re right. In that case, an appeal could still come by 3:00 central time today. In that event, Graham’s case to be considered a wide receiver would be put before a three-person appeals board. If the appeals board decided to overturn Burbank’s decision, Graham’s franchise tag would be worth $12.312MM rather than $7.035MM.

Long-term contract deadline:

Here’s one deadline we know for certain: Graham and the Saints have until Tuesday at 3:00pm central time to strike a long-term contract agreement that will keep the tight end in New Orleans for multiple seasons. If they don’t work out a deal, Graham will only be eligible to sign a one-year deal this summer. He’d be eligible for a contract extension again following the final game of the regular season.

Last we heard, discussions between the two sides were moving slowly, with no indication that the Saints had upped their offer of about $9.5MM per year, and no indication that Graham would be inclined to accept that proposal. Still, the team has long expressed optimism about getting something done, and there’s a precedent for talks going down to the wire — the same thing happened two years ago when the Saints used their franchise tag on Drew Brees and ultimately agreed on a multiyear extension.

If no long-term agreement is reached:

If Tuesday comes and goes with no long-term extension in place for Graham, the most likely scenario would see him play out the 2014 season on his one-year franchise salary, then having the same process repeat again in 2015 — a second franchise tag would be an affordable $8.442MM.

Of course, there are other possibilities in play here. If Graham’s camp does indeed file an appeal at some point today and ultimately wins it, he’d play out the ’14 season at a much higher salary, making it significantly more difficult for New Orleans to franchise him again next year, when a second franchise tag would cost $14.774MM. That’s not the most likely outcome, of course, but it’s one the club must consider as it negotiates a long-term deal.

Additionally, since Graham was tagged with the non-exclusive franchise designation, he remains a free agent, meaning a rival team could sign him to an offer sheet. As Joel Corry wrote for The National Football Post earlier this month, there’s nothing in the CBA which suggests the July 15 deadline applies to offer sheets from rival teams as well as multiyear extensions with a franchise player’s own club. So if a team is willing to part with two future first-round picks to sign Graham, it could still sign the 27-year-old to an offer sheet, which the Saints would have five days to match. There are rumblings that a few teams are still considering this, though I’d be surprised if any team actually went all-in on such a move, considering the exorbitant cost in both salary and draft picks.

Prediction:

While I’ve been expecting Graham and the Saints to ultimately compromise and reach a long-term agreement, the lingering possibility of an appeal on Burbank’s decision complicates matter. If an appeal is filed today, it would seem to reduce the likelihood of a multiyear extension, since there’d be little reason to challenge Graham’s one-year franchise salary if he’s playing under an entirely different contract.

Still, I think a long-term extension remains the likeliest outcome, with Graham and the Saints agreeing to a contract at some point within the next 30 hours or so. Something in the range of five years, $50MM+, with between $15-20MM in guaranteed money, would make sense to me.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Detroit Lions

By | at July 13, 2014 3:11 pm

Notable signings:

Notable losses:

Extensions and restructures:

  • Montell Owens (RB): Restructured contract. 2014 base salary reduced from $1.25MM to $855K in exchange for $100K roster bonus, $50K workout bonus, and up to $200K in per-game incentives.
  • Cory Greenwood (LB): Restructured contract. Reduced 2014 base salary from $730K to $645K, eliminated $20K workout bonus, and eliminated 2015 season.

Trades:

  • Acquired a second-round pick (No. 40) from the Seahawks in exchange for a second-round pick (No. 45), a fourth-round pick (No. 111), and a seventh-round pick (No. 227).
  • Acquired a fifth-round pick (No. 158) and a seventh-round pick (No. 229) from the Cowboys in exchange for a fifth-round pick (No. 146).

Draft picks:

  • Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina (1.10): Signed
  • Kyle Van Noy, LB, BYU (2.40): Signed
  • Travis Swanson, C, Arkansas (3.76): Signed
  • Nevin Lawson, CB, Utah State (4.133): Signed
  • Larry Webster, DE, Bloomburg (4.136): Signed
  • Caraun Reid, DT, Princeton (5.158): Signed
  • T.J. Jones, WR, Notre Dame (6.189): Signed
  • Nate Freese, K, Boston College (7.229): Signed

Other:

When the Lions qualified for the playoffs in 2011 after an 11-year absence, it seemed only a matter of time before they would make a serious run at the Lombardi Trophy. They had an explosive offense, a strong enough defense, and had shown steady improvement under head coach Jim Schwartz. Unfortunately, they were unable to continue along that positive trajectory. After failing to reach the playoffs in 2012 and 2013, the team overhauled its coaching staff in the hopes of re-establishing itself as a serious contender in the NFC.

Jim Caldwell

After firing Schwartz, the team hired Jim Caldwell in January of this year as his replacement. Caldwell’s hire was something of a surprise. He served as head coach of the Colts from 2009 to 2011, guiding Indianapolis to two AFC South titles and an AFC championship during that time. However, star quarterback Peyton Manning missed the 2011 season due to injury, and the team collapsed in his absence. After a 2-14 campaign, Caldwell was fired and resurfaced as quarterbacks coach of the Ravens shortly thereafter.

Despite not having any experience as a playcaller, Caldwell replaced Cam Cameron as Baltimore’s offensive coordinator when Cameron was fired late in the 2012 season. Caldwell utilized Cameron’s playbook more effectively than Cameron did, and he oversaw Joe Flacco‘s historic playoff run that culminated in a Super Bowl victory. However, 2013 was an unmitigated disaster for the Ravens’ offense, and Caldwell had no remedy for his woeful unit. Nonetheless, the Lions liked what they saw in Caldwell as a manager of staff and players, and handed him the reins of their promising but underachieving roster.

Caldwell brought in Joe Lombardi, a young and respected offensive mind who had served as the Saints’ quarterbacks coach since 2009, as his offensive coordinator. He then hired Teryl Austin, who had been the Ravens’ secondary coach since 2011, to run the defense.

As is often the case when a new coaching regime takes over, there has been a great deal of optimism surrounding the Lions’ new staff. As far as the team’s offense is concerned, such optimism is more than justified. An already dynamic attack was augmented by two significant additions, Golden Tate and Eric Ebron. Tate slowly came into his own in Seattle before signing a lucrative deal with Detroit, and he projects as the team’s No. 2 receiver opposite the game’s most dominant wideout, Calvin Johnson. The Lions hope Tate, who is a talented playmaker in his own right, can direct some of the attention of opposing defenses off of Johnson, something that Nate Burleson–who left for the Browns this offseason–could never really accomplish.

In Ebron, the team landed the consensus No. 1 tight end in this year’s draft. Many pundits predict that Ebron, with his blend of size and speed, can impact Detroit’s passing game the way Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski impacted the offenses of their respective clubs. While Ebron may eventually approach that level of success, it might take a season or two before the Lions truly reap the benefits of his talent. Ebron has struggled with drops in offseason workouts–which is a concern, given that drops plagued him in college as well–and with grasping Lombardi’s offense. Nonetheless, it will be impossible for defenses to adequately cover every player in the Lions’ aerial attack, and if those defenses continue to double-team Johnson, quarterback Matt Stafford might see Ebron running free down the seam many times over the course of the season (it is also important to note that the team re-signed tight end Brandon Pettigrew. Pettigrew is a talented enough pass catcher himself, but he is also one of the few tight ends in the league who offers receiving and blocking abilities, so his presence will probably be an underappreciated but invaluable glue for this offense).

Defense, however, will again be a concern. The Lions struggled mightily against the pass in 2013, and they released top corner Chris Houston and safety Louis Delmas. They added veteran corners Rashean Mathis and Cassius Vaughn on one-year minimum contracts, but it is unrealistic to expect much out of those two players. New strong safety James Ihedigbo, signed as a free agent from the Ravens, offers quality play as a run-stopper and occasional pass rusher, but, like traditional strong safeties, does not offer much by way of pass coverage. As such, the onus will fall upon corner Darius Slay and free safety Glover Quin to pick up the slack on the back end of the defense.

The front seven, however, offers more promise. The defensive line is anchored by Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh, and Ziggy Ansah demonstrated tremendous upside in his rookie campaign that he should be able to build upon in 2014. Meanwhile, the Lions supplemented their linebacker corps, anchored by veterans Stephen Tulloch and DeAndre Levy–who enjoyed the very definition of a breakout season in 2013–with intriguing talent Kyle Van Noy, whom they selected in the second round of this year’s draft. Van Noy was a late riser in the draft, and the Lions liked him enough to trade their No. 45, No . 111, and No. 227 picks to Seattle to move up five spots to nab him. Van Noy is not an elite athlete–which probably kept him out of the first round–but he does everything else well, and he should see a lot of snaps in his rookie season.

There will also be a kicking competition between Nate Freese, whom the team selected in the seventh round of this year’s draft, and Giorgio Tavecchio, who has been in camp with the 49ers and Packers in recent seasons but who has not yet established himself in the league. Freese, as a draftee, is the presumptive favorite, and the Lions hope he will be the team’s long-term solution at the position after veteran David Akers struggled in 2013 to replace the production of stalwart Jason Hanson. Both Freese and Tavecchio, however, have struggled thus far.

The Lions are unquestionably a team with talent, and the coaching changes were probably necessary ones, as the proverbial message of Schwartz and company had apparently grown stale. However, outside of their possibly dynamic offense, they are also a team with flaws. Fortunately for them, the Packers and Bears have vulnerabilities of their own, and the Vikings appear to be at least a year away from legitimate contention. As such, the Lions have a real chance to make a run at the NFC North crown, but, failing that, a wild card berth is well within their reach.

Spotrac and Over The Cap were used in the creation of this post.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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PFR Originals: 7/6/14 – 7/13/14

By | at July 13, 2014 10:50 am

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

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