Texans Expected To Wait On C.J. Stroud Extension?
A report from earlier this month indicated “serious” extension talks have yet to begin in the case of C.J. Stroud. Predictions from outside the Texans’ building also point to no deal being worked out this summer.
There is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding this situation, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports. He adds, though, that some observers around the NFL “loosely expect” Stroud to play out the 2026 season before any potential Houston deal is finalized. The Texans recently exercised Stroud’s $25.9MM fifth-year option.
That decision came as no surprise, and it ensured the former No. 2 pick would remain under team control through 2027. A commitment beyond that point would make Stroud one of the league’s highest-paid quarterbacks, but it remains to be seen if Houston will be comfortable proceeding on that front. After a sensational rookie season, Stroud’s production has taken a step back despite the Texans continuing to reach the divisional round of the playoffs.
The team’s elite defense has played a central role in that success, and a pair of big-money extensions on that side of the ball were recently worked out. Stroud’s 2023 draft classmate Will Anderson Jr. now leads the way in terms of edge rush compensation with an average annual value of $50MM on his new deal. Any second Stroud contract would surpass that figure given the nature of the QB market (which is currently topped by Dak Prescott at $60MM annually). The salary cap has continued to rise since Prescott’s 2024 deal was signed, while Stroud is eight years younger than the Cowboys’ QB1.
Those factors will no doubt weigh heavily once negotiations begin to ramp up. However, it is yet to be seen when that will be the case. The Texans have previously been linked to waiting out the 2026 campaign before hammering out a monster extension. If that stance holds, Stroud’s performance next season will be worth watching closely as his value will be determined in no small part by his output. A return to his previous form could allow the Texans to break through in the AFC playoffs.
On the other hand, poor showings by team and/or player in this case could justify a patient approach on Houston’s part. A commitment of some kind to Stroud should still be expected, but the matter of timing continues to loom as an interesting storyline.
Texans, C.J. Stroud Yet To Conduct Extension Talks?
Earlier this offseason, signs pointed to hesitancy on the part of the Texans regarding a C.J. Stroud extension being worked out in 2026. It appears a deal is still not imminent in this case.
ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime reports there have yet to be “serious extension talks” at this point. Houston made the obvious decision of picking up Stroud’s fifth-year option this spring, doing the same for edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. The latter recently inked a massive second contract, one carrying a non-QB record average annual value of $50MM.
The Texans’ attention could now turn to Stroud if their goal is to work out a long-term contract before the latest inevitable jump in the quarterback market. On the other hand, the former No. 2 pick’s statistical regression over the past two years compared to his stellar rookie campaign led to some executives Bien-Aime spoke with recommending a patient approach from Houston. As a result of the option decision, Stroud will be under team control through at least 2027.
The franchise tag looms as another means of keeping Stroud in the fold for the short term, although using it would involve considerable up front cap commitments. A long-term extension, by contrast, would presumably carry a much larger AAV but allow Houston to spread out the cap charges over an extended period. In any case, finding common ground on the value of a potential second contract will be a central task for team and player.
10 quarterbacks are currently attached to deals averaging between $51MM and $60MM per season. Players from the 2023 draft are eligible to join that list, although the No. 1 pick in Stroud’s class (Bryce Young) is far from certain to land a big-money commitment from the Panthers. Anthony Richardson, taken fourth overall, remains a trade candidate as the Colts prepare to move forward with Daniel Jones as their QB1.
Stroud has outperformed both Young and Richardson early in their respective NFL careers. The Texans have reached the divisional round during each of the past three years. This past postseason in particular, however, highlighted concerns related to turnovers in Stroud’s case. The 24-year-old also missed three games in 2025 due to a concussion. Those factors, along with an inability to replicate the efficiency of his rookie season, could lead general manager Nick Caserio and Co. to wait before authorizing an extension.
The Texans have a young core anchored by their elite defense, and expectations will remain high for the team moving forward. Another renovation project along the offensive line, coupled with the acquisition of David Montgomery as a new lead running back, should help Stroud’s performances in 2026. If he is to enter next season with a new deal in hand, though, there appears to be plenty of work still to be done on the negotiating front.
2027 NFL Fifth-Year Option Tracker
May 1 marked the deadline for teams to decide on fifth-year options on 2023 first-rounders. The 2020 CBA revamped the option structure and made them fully guaranteed, rather than guaranteed for injury only. Meanwhile, fifth-year option salaries are now determined by a blend of performance- and usage-based benchmarks:
- Two-time Pro Bowlers (excluding alternates) will earn the same as their position’s franchise tag
- One-time Pro Bowlers will earn the equivalent of the transition tag
- Players who achieve any of the following will receive the average of the third-20th top salaries at their position:
- At least a 75% snap rate in two of their first three seasons
- A 75% snap average across all three seasons
- At least 50% in each of first three seasons
- Players who do not hit any of those benchmarks will receive the average of the third-25th top salaries at their position
PFR’s Offseason Outlook series examined each of these decisions in-depth. Twenty-two options were exercised this year. Here is how each team with an option decision proceeded with 2023 first-round contracts:
- QB Bryce Young, Panthers ($25.9MM): Exercised
- QB C.J. Stroud, Texans ($25.9MM): Exercised
- DE Will Anderson Jr., Texans ($21.51MM): Exercised
- QB Anthony Richardson, Colts ($22.48MM): Declined
- CB Devon Witherspoon, Seahawks ($21.16MM): Exercised
- LT Paris Johnson Jr., Cardinals ($19.07MM): Exercised
- DE Tyree Wilson, Saints ($14.48MM): Declined
- RB Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($11.32MM): Exercised
- DT Jalen Carter, Eagles ($27.13MM): Exercised
- RT Darnell Wright, Bears ($19.07MM): Exercised
- G Peter Skoronski, Titans ($19.07MM): Exercised
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($14.29MM): Exercised
- LB Lukas Van Ness, Packers ($13.75MM): Exercised
- LT Broderick Jones, Steelers ($19.07MM): Declined
- DE Will McDonald, Jets ($13.75MM): Exercised
- CB Emmanuel Forbes, Rams ($12.63MM): Declined
- CB Christian Gonzalez, Patriots ($18.12MM): Exercised
- LB Jack Campbell, Lions ($21.93MM): Declined
- DL Calijah Kancey, Buccaneers ($14.48MM): Exercised
- WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks ($23.85MM): Exercised
- WR Quentin Johnston, Chargers ($18MM): Exercised
- WR Zay Flowers, Ravens ($27.3MM): Exercised
- WR Jordan Addison, Vikings ($18MM): Exercised
- CB Deonte Banks, Giants ($12.63MM): Declined
- TE Dalton Kincaid, Bills ($8.16MM): Exercised
- DT Mazi Smith, Jets ($13.93MM): Declined
- RT Anton Harrison, Jaguars ($19.07MM): Exercised
- DE Myles Murphy, Bengals ($14.48MM): Declined
- DT Bryan Bresee, Saints ($13.93MM): Exercised
- LB Nolan Smith, Eagles ($13.75MM): Exercised
- DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Chiefs ($14.48MM): Declined
Will Anderson Jr. To Command $50MM AAV?
The Texans will focus on extending Will Anderson Jr. before the start of the 2026 season, but it will likely require a record-breaking AAV to do so. Albert Breer of SI.com observes the rapidly climbing contracts for edge rushers, and the writer believes Anderson’s next deal will likely come in at around $50MM annually.
This is a staggering figure, but it’s not completely unfounded. As Breer notes, the market was first revamped when Nick Bosa inked a deal worth a $34MM average annual value in 2023, topping the $28MM mark held by T.J. Watt. Maxx Crosby‘s deal boosted that AAV record to $35.5MM, but that was quickly jumped by Myles Garrett‘s $40MM annual earnings. Watt once again topped the list with his $41MM average annual value, and Micah Parsons eventually set the current record with his $46MM AAV.
Considering the $5MM jump from Watt’s deal to Parsons’ deal, Breer surmises that “it would be a stunner” if Anderson settles for anything less than $50MM per year. While the Texans could push against that record-breaking mark, Breer notes that the front office has shown a willingness to speed up negotiations and complete extensions quickly, as they did with Derek Stingley Jr.. Plus, Anderson embodies “the standard as a worker and a player” that coach DeMeco Ryans seeks. If the Texans were going to back up the Brink’s truck for any individual, it would be Anderson.
The third-overall pick in the 2023 draft, Anderson has quickly established himself as one of the league’s premier edge rushers. He earned his first All-Pro nod and finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting in 2025 after tallying 12 sacks, three forced fumbles, 20 tackles for loss, and 23 QB hits. Pro Football Focus ranked him as the best edge defender in the sport last year, although he “only” ranked third at the position for his pass-rush ability.
While the Texans may be eager to hand Anderson a new deal, the optics may not sit well with their franchise QB. Anderson was the second of two-straight picks by the Texans in the 2023 draft, with the team using the second-overall pick on C.J. Stroud. It seems unlikely that the Texans will be as quick to extend the signal-caller, and assuming Anderson inks his deal, the situation would be “glaring,” per Breer. While Anderson’s next deal won’t necessarily price the Texans out of Stroud’s next contract, the team may think twice about paying the QB the $65MM or $70MM AAV he’ll surely command.
Texans Exercise Will Anderson Jr., C.J. Stroud’s Fifth-Year Options
The Texans will be committing nearly $50MM in guaranteed money to their two first-round draft choices from 2023. Both Will Anderson Jr. and C.J. Stroud are extension candidates, and each is now signed through the 2027 season.
Houston is exercising both players’ fifth-year options, according to ESPN.com’s Field Yates. Stroud’s option checks in at $25.9MM, while Anderson’s comes in at $21.51MM. Anderson is on the Texans’ extension docket this offseason, and while a Stroud payday may now be pushed to 2027, the Texans are making the expected one-year commitment to the former Offensive Rookie of the Year.
[RELATED: 2027 NFL Fifth-Year Option Tracker]
Anderson’s fifth-year number comes in on the third tier of the option ladder, with the former Alabama standout being named to one original-ballot Pro Bowl. Stroud has not been invited to a Pro Bowl on the original ballot, so he qualifies for the second rung on the QB ladder. That is still a hefty chunk of change for the quarterback. If Stroud indeed plays the 2027 season in Houston, he will be the franchise’s first five-year starting quarterback since Matt Schaub.
Soaring to the first-team All-Pro level last season as a dominant pass rusher on a menacing Texans defense, Anderson has generated extension buzz for months. The Texans paid Derek Stingley Jr. early, giving him a record-setting extension in his first offseason of eligibility. Anderson may well follow suit, as rumors have trended in that direction. The Texans paid J.J. Watt in his first year of extension eligibility back in 2014. Anderson does not have a Defensive Player of the Year honor under his belt like Watt did when Houston paid him, but the 2023 No. 3 pick has become one of the NFL’s best edge rushers.
Discussions have begun with Anderson, who will be a candidate to at least approach where Micah Parsons and Aidan Hutchinson took the market to close a transformative year on the EDGE market. Anderson will not turn 25 until September, and he has totaled 23 sacks over the past two seasons. The 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year racked up 12 sacks last season opposite perennial sack ace Danielle Hunter, forming one of the NFL’s best rush tandems in recent memory. This duo joined Stingley in powering Houston to a third straight playoff berth, with the Texans’ defense smothering the Steelers in Round 1 after a strong regular-season surge to reach 12 wins.
Parsons’ market reached $46.5MM per year, with his Packers extension stalling Hutchinson’s Lions talks. Hutchinson scored a defender-record $141MM guaranteed, while Parsons came in at $136MM. Anderson’s camp will be eyeing those figures, though the Texans have shown a willingness — as Stingley’s deal showed — to complete three-year extensions. That would reduce the total cash figure while allowing Anderson a chance at a third contract sooner. This easy option decision, however, reflects how well the Texans did choosing Anderson — whom they traded up nine spots for after selecting Stroud at No. 2.
Stroud came off the board one pick after former Alabama QB Bryce Young, whom the Panthers chose first overall. While Stroud has been the better of the two, it is not sure a thing either team will commit to a long-term deal this offseason. Rather, both clubs may want to wait another year to evaluate their signal-callers. Stroud and Young have put together uneven careers thus far.
Although the Texans have gone a terrific 28-18 in Stroud’s starts, the 24-year-old’s effectiveness has arguably dipped since a stellar 2023 introduction. A concussion sidelined Stroud for three games last season. The team kept its once-floundering season afloat by winning all three of backup Davis Mills‘ starts. Meanwhile, the Texans won nine of Stroud’s 14 outings. He completed 64.5% of passes, averaged 7.2 yards per attempt and tossed 19 touchdowns against eight interceptions. While his traditional passer rating (92.9) checked in at 17th, he finished a much more impressive 11th in QBR (61.7).
Stroud has helped the Texans to the playoffs in each of his seasons, but they have not gotten past the divisional round. The Stroud-led team suffered particularly ugly second-round defeats to the Ravens in 2023 (34-10) and the Patriots last January (28-16). Stroud had one of the worst games of his career in New England, where he completed 20 of 47 passes and threw four picks in miserable weather.
Discussing Stroud’s playoff struggles, head coach DeMeco Ryans said (via Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2): “Being young in his career, he’s gained a ton of valuable experience and a ton of playoff experience and seeing that it hasn’t gone as we would like it to go there in the playoffs. Of course, you always want to win it all. But when you go through those difficult moments, those tough times, you learn from them. I know C.J. has learned from those moments.”
Heading into a pivotal fourth year, Ryans believes Stroud is “dialed in,” adding, “I’m excited to see how this continues to transition to him having a really great year for us.”
Connor Byrne contributed to this post.
Texans Will Not Trade C.J. Stroud; Joe Mixon Undergoes Surgery
C.J. Stroud has not built on his 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year performance, and a miserable playoff showing restricted a dominant Texans defense. The quarterback is now extension-eligible, but a recent report pressed pause on that topic.
The Texans do not look to be planning a Stroud extension for 2026, but the team will exercise the former No. 2 overall pick’s fifth-year option. That will extend Stroud’s contract through 2027, buying the organization some time. While Year 5 QB extensions are not commonplace, that may be where this settles.
GM Nick Caserio said Tuesday no trade is coming, confirming (via ESPN.com’s DJ Bien-Aime) the fourth-year passer is “not going anywhere.” Stroud, 24, is on track to make $1.15MM in base salary on his fully guaranteed $36.28MM rookie contract.
Considering the Ohio State product’s rookie-year performance and the flashes shown over the ensuing two seasons, it would be surprising if the Texans truly considered moving on this year. The fifth-year option will create an opportunity for Stroud to boost his stock this season, which would allow him to set a price point closer to the top of the market in 2027.
Most successful QBs who go off the board in Round 1 are extended after their third seasons, but Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa have been outliers in recent years. Jackson played out his option season and was extended after being franchise-tagged in 2023. The Dolphins let Tagovailoa play out his fourth season and paid him before Year 5. That turned out to be the wrong move, and Miami is on track to eat record-smashing dead money. That example would point to Houston caution with Stroud, but given the mess the organization was in after the Deshaun Watson scandal, giving a promising but unspectacular passer another shot certainly makes sense.
The Texans paired Stroud and Joe Mixon in 2024 but needed to adjust at running back last season, when Mixon missed 17 games because of an unspecified injury. Mixon, 29, landed on the reserve/NFI list because of a “complicated” foot and ankle injury. The 2024 trade acquisition has undergone surgery, Caserio said (via KPRC2’s Aaron Wilson).
The former Bengals regular may not play again. If/when the Texans release Mixon from his two-year, $19.75MM extension, it would free up $8MM in cap space. Nick Chubb played out his one-year Houston contract, but Woody Marks (703 rookie-year rushing yards) has three years left on his rookie deal. The Texans will likely add another RB to complement Marks or push him for the starting job soon.
Texans Not Eyeing Offseason C.J. Stroud Extension?
It is a foregone conclusion that the Texans will exercise quarterback C.J. Stroud’s fifth-year option, thereby assuring him of a $26.53MM salary for 2027. It is less certain that Houston will discuss a long-term contract with Stroud’s camp this offseason, and Aaron Wilson of KPRC2 unequivocally asserts those talks will not commence until next year.
In a lengthy video report addressing recent speculation that Houston could consider trading Stroud – whose middling 2025 regular season culminated in two turnover-riddled playoff contests and another divisional-round exit – Wilson says contract talks are not in the team’s immediate plans. Instead, he believes the club and Stroud will reach an understanding in which the Texans tell the former No. 2 overall pick they will be happy to pay him like a franchise passer a year from now, after a strong 2026 performance.
Although he does not explicitly say so, one of the reports Wilson appears to be referencing is one recently published by Albert Breer of SI.com. Per Breer, it may be difficult to get Stroud to accept anything less than the $60MM-per-year payout that Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott presently enjoys, which Breer suggests will soon become the new benchmark for high-end quarterback contracts.
Of course, given that Stroud followed up his Offensive Rookie of the Year showing in 2023 with two less inspiring seasons, and given that his two most recent playoff games featured a combined five fumbles (two lost) and five interceptions, it is fair to wonder if his track record and upside merit a top-shelf deal. While not as adamant as Wilson, Breer indicates the Texans could delay contract talks until the 2027 offseason.
If Houston does elect to negotiate, its perception of Stroud’s value may be starkly different than the player’s self-evaluation, which could cause the talks to get “sticky.” Breer echoes prior reports that the Texans may be aggressive in seeking an extension for edge rusher Will Anderson, and if they authorize a top-of-the-market pact for the defensive star but not for their QB1, the relationship between Stroud and the club may become strained.
Either development – contentious negotiations or an outright postponement of negotiations – could pique the interest of QB-needy teams, which could then try to pry Stroud away from Houston. Breer does not say the Texans have received calls on Stroud, nor does he indicate they would even entertain such calls if they came in, but it makes sense that other clubs would be monitoring the situation just in case.
But even if they do not believe he is presently deserving of a $60MM/year contract, the Texans have no intention of trading Stroud, per Wilson (who says it would cost at least two first-round picks for an interested team to acquire him). Wilson goes on to say Houston’s plan is to bolster the O-line, upgrade the tight end room, and add another starting-caliber running back. Those moves, in conjunction with a second year under offensive coordinator Nick Caley, are expected to allow Stroud to thrive in 2026 and improve his earning power in 2027.
Texans Will Pick Up QB C.J. Stroud’s Fifth-Year Option; Team To Discuss Offseason Extension
JANUARY 19: When speaking to the media on Monday, Anderson stated he hopes to spend his entire career in Houston. Aaron Wilson of KPRC2 confirms talks on a mega-extension are expected, and it would come as no surprise if one were to be finalized during the spring.
JANUARY 12: For now, the Texans’ attention is focused on their upcoming wild-card game and any further playoff contests which follow. Once the season is over, a number of notable contract decisions will need to be made. 
This offseason will mark the first point at which 2023 draftees can sign extensions. That means quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson could land new contracts relatively soon. At a minimum, a choice on the fifth-year option for both players will need to be made by the spring. Neither case should prove to be particularly difficult on that front.
To no surprise, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network confirms the Texans will exercise Stroud’s option (video link). That comes as no surprise given the 24-year-old’s success early in his career. Houston advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs in each of Stroud’s first two seasons, and a win tonight will extend that streak to three years. Exercising the option will set Stroud up for $26.53MM in 2027.
A long-term pact will of course cost much more than that. Per Rapoport, the Texans will weigh the possibility of working out a second contract this offseason against waiting until after the 2026 campaign is over. The market currently contains 11 passers attached to an average annual value of $51MM or more. Stroud can be expected to join that group whenever his next Texans contract is in place. The status of negotiations will make for a central Texans offseason storyline.
Stroud was selected second overall in the 2023 draft. Houston traded up to the No. 3 spot to add Anderson. Expectations were high in his case as a result, but the former Defensive Rookie of the Year has developed into a major factor in his team’s success. Anderson reached double-digit sacks for the first time in 2024, and he set a new career high in that department this season with 12. That production helped land him a first-team All-Pro nod along with the second Pro Bowl invitation of his career.
Houston will also look into an Anderson extension this offseason, Rapoport adds. In November, it was reported the Texans were expected to explore an early agreement on this front. Picking up Anderson’s fifth-year option will tie him to a 2027 salary of $15.28MM. An extension could move the Alabama product near the top of the pass rush market, one which is currently paced by Micah Parsons at $46.5MM per year.
Working out an agreement with either Stroud or Anderson will of course significantly alter the Texans’ cap outlook for years to come. A strong core is in place, but maintaining it will become more challenging as their respective costs increase. Massive new deals being finalized in either case will come as no surprise, but the timing on both fronts will be interesting to monitor.
Panthers Expected To Pick Up Bryce Young’s Fifth-Year Option, Wait On Extension
In the last 15 season, the Panthers have won more than seven games only three times. They are already at seven wins in 2025 with four games to go after their Week 14 bye, putting them on pace for their best finish since 2017.
Carolina’s success is primarily due to a defense that has improved from dead-last in 2024 to middle of the pack this year, but clutch play from third-year quarterback Bryce Young has been a major factor. He has led four fourth-quarter comebacks and five game-winning drives.
However, he is not exactly setting the world on fire statistically, averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game and ranking 23rd in passer rating (87.9) and QBR (45.6). Young has also thrown nine interceptions already; last season, he threw nine picks in 14 games, and in 2023, he threw 10 in 16 games.
His performance this season has set up an interesting two years for the Panthers and their young quarterback. Young will be eligible for an extension this offseason, and a decision on his fifth-year option will be due on May 1.
The latter situation is simpler than the former. Young’s fifth-year option is projected by OverTheCap to be $26.5MM, though that could rise to $39.7MM if he makes the Pro Bowl this season. That feels unlikely, but a surprise playoff berth on the back of Young’s clutch performances could garner him some consideration. He does have to be selected on the original ballot to upgrade his fifth-year option, according to the NFL’s CBA; a 2022 Tyler Huntley situation (filling in for an injured original selection) would not qualify. A Pro Bowl bump would make Young’s fifth-year option a much tougher decision, but for now, the team is expected to pick it up, per ESPN’s Dan Graziano.
Picking up the fifth-year option ensures that Young is under contract at an affordable price for a starter. It would also allow the Panthers to wait on an extension. They are not expected to pursue one this offseason, as Young has not quite cemented himself as the future of the franchise. Another, more significant leap in 2026 may do so, at which point the Panthers would likely try to finalize an extension before the 2027 season.
As a result, the cost of an extension may be substantially lower this offseason as opposed to the next. That sets up a clear dichotomy for the Panthers. Do they want to bet on Young now in the hopes of continue development and a contract that looks like a steal a few years from now? Or do they want to wait and see if he is really their long-term starter.
It is worth noting that Panthers head coach Dave Canales came in the year after the team selected Young with the No. 1 overall pick. As a result, he had to give Young a chance for at least a year or two. The 24-year-old quarterback has responded with some development, but it is hard to argue that he is even a mid-tier starter.
If Young cannot reach or eclipse that level next season, Canales may want to handpick his next quarterback himself. He may already have designs to do so. As the saying goes, NFL stands for Not For Long. Coaches can have extremely short leashes, especially under owners whose teams are struggling and/or are too involved in day-to-day operations. Both could be said of Panthers owner David Tepper, so if Canales wants to be in Carolina for the long haul, he may want to choose the quarterback that will give him the best chance.
The rest of the 2023 class becomes eligible for an extension next offseason. C.J. Stroud is the only quarterback that looks like the future of his franchise, so the Texans are considered more likely to pay him than the Panthers are to pay Young, according to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler.
Texans QB C.J. Stroud, S Jalen Pitre To Return In Week 13
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans announced on Friday (via Jonathan Alexander of the Houston Chronicle) that quarterback C.J. Stroud and safety Jalen Pitre cleared concussion protocol and will return from their multi-game absences in Week 13 against the Colts.
Stroud suffered a concussion in Week 9 and missed two games before returning to practice in Week 12. He only participated on Tuesday, and Houston’s short week before a Thursday night matchup with the Bills kept him sidelined for another game. Stroud was a full participant for all three of the Texans’ practice this week and will start on Sunday, likely without an injury designation.
Pitre has been in a similar situation to Stroud. His concussion also happened in Week 9, though it was not spotted during the game. He also returned to practice in a limited capacity last week, but was absent on Friday. He was upgraded to full participation on Wednesday, and now that he is no longer in concussion protocol, he may not have an injury designation for Sunday’s game, either.
Backup quarterback Davis Mills struggled in relief of Stroud in Week 9, resulting in an 18-15 loss to the Broncos. But in their three full games without Stroud or Pitre, Houston has gone 3-0. As a starter, Mills averaged 240 yards per game with five touchdowns, one interception, and a 88.25 passer rating. Those numbers are comparable to Stroud’s performance over the last two years, which is significantly below the standard he set as a rookie.
Pitre’s replacement, Myles Bryant, has also held up in the last three games. He has capably filled Pitre’s versatile role with 42 snaps in the slot, 31 as a free safety, and 82 at nickel, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He has made 14 total tackles and missed only two, and though he has allowed catches on nine of his 12 targets, he has limited those receptions to just 45 yards. Like Mills, those are comparable numbers, if not better numbers, relative to the Texans’ usual starter. Pitre has 45 tackles this season, an average of 5.6 per game, with a 16.7% missed tackle rate. He has also allowed 7.7 yards per target. Bryant has averaged 4.6 tackles in the last three weeks with a 12.5% missed tackle rate to go along with only 3.75 yards per target.
Pitre will return to his starting role in Week 13, but Bryant may have earned himself a role in some dime packages. Mills, however, will be on the bench for the rest of the season with the Texans hoping Stroud can bounce-back from a quiet first half and make a late-season playoff push. Houston is currently 6-5 – meaning that Mills and Bryant helped keep their postseason hopes alive – but they trail the Colts and the Jaguars in the AFC South. Their best path to the playoffs is likely a wild card berth, but that may be difficult with the Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Chargers, and Chiefs also angling for those three spots.
Stroud’s return will come against a Colts defense that has allowed 245.5 passing yards per game this season, the fifth-most in the league. However, their 7.2 yards per attempt allowed and 33 sacks rank 10th and sixth, respectively. In the last two weeks, Indianapolis has only given up 377 passing yards, which coincides with the addition of Sauce Gardner and the return of Charvarius Ward from injured reserve. It’s also worth noting that the Colts have faced the second-most passing attempts in the NFL as a result of consistently leading games. Therefore, there is some reason to believe that the Colts’ pass defense has not struggled as much as it seems and may not be as porous for the rest of the year.