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Author: Dallas Robinson

No Deal Yet Between Lynch, Seahawks

By | at February 21, 2015 8:02 pm

8:02pm: Hendrickson is clear to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk: “There is no deal,” Hendrickson said. “We are talking.” Lynch has not signed a deal, and given his mercurial nature, Florio writes there’s no guarantee that he will.

7:42pm: The Seahawks have a new deal in place with running back Marshawn Lynch, league sources tell Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com (Twitter link), who expects the contract to be formally announced in the coming days. While Lynch’s agent, Doug Hendrickson, tweets that no in agreement is in place as of yet, La Canfora reports (via Twitter) that Seattle’s offer (reported earlier by Rand Getlin of Yahoo! Sports) will result in a deal being reached. Meanwhile, Mike Garafolo of FOX Sports says (Twitter link) that nothing between the two parties is imminent, so it sounds like this is a fluid situation.

If La Canfora is correct, Lynch will earn $12MM in 2015 and $9MM in 2016, though the Seahawks understand that the 28-year-old could retire after the upcoming season (link). Lynch had been scheduled to earn a $5MM base salary in ’15 — combined with his $1MM bonus proration and a $2MM roster bonus, he would have counted $8.5MM against the cap. “Beast Mode” has recently contemplated retirement, and reports have indicated that his back troubles could ultimately lead him to hang up his cleats. But if the hangup on his decision is money, this new pact should be enough for Lynch to hold off on retirement for at least more season.

The Seahawks went through a protracted contract dispute with Lynch prior to last season, but the two sides ultimately inked a new deal that guaranteed the running back $6.5MM. Lynch went on to rush for than 1,300 yards and 13 touchdowns, catching another 37 passes out of the backfield as Seattle made its second consecutive Super Bowl. If the Seahawks are able to work out a new pact with Lynch, they’ll presumably turn their attention to extending other notable players such as Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner.

5 comments Newsstand Seattle Seahawks

Cowboys Notes: Dez, Murray, Romo, Jerry

By | at February 21, 2015 5:40 pm

There’s been plenty of Cowboys-related news already this afternoon, as we learned that Dallas management is waiting to hear from free agent receiver Dez Bryant‘s agent, and that fellow free agent Rolando McClain is facing a four-game fine after a third failed drug test. Let’s take a look at some more notes from Big D…

  • Bryant has made it clear that he won’t be pleased if the Cowboys use the franchise tag on him, and owner Jerry Jones also indicated that the franchise tag isn’t the optimal outcome. “I can tell you I’m not that excited about the franchise tag with Dez simply because I’d like to have our agreement and our business in place for a long time to come with Dez,” Jones told Todd Archer of ESPN.com. Dallas has until March 2 to use the franchise tag on Bryant, and then would have until July 15 to negotiate a long-term extension.
  • Running back DeMarco Murray is also a pending free agent, and the Cowboys have an idea of what they’d be willing to pay the 2014 Offensive Player of the Year. But given how critical Murray was to the offense last season, Jones tells Archer that he will have some “serious flexibility” regarding Murray’s salary range.
  • If Murray is re-signed, he’ll probably have a lighter workload in 2015, as Archer writes. Murray led the league with 392 carries last year, and Jones doesn’t believe it’s feasible for Murray’s snap count to be as high in 2015. Backup running back Joseph Randle has already faced legal trouble this offseason, however, while fellow RB Lance Dunbar is a free agent.
  • The Cowboys will make decisions on their future with the idea that Tony Romo will be their quarterback for the next five years, Jones tells Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News. Romo will turn 35 years old in April, so the five-year window might seem optimistic, but the veteran QB is signed through 2019.
0 comments Dallas Cowboys

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Bears

By | at February 19, 2015 8:00 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Jay Cutler, QB: $16,500,000
  2. Jared Allen, DE: $12,500,000
  3. Brandon Marshall, WR: $9,575,000
  4. Matt Forte, RB: $9,200,000
  5. Jermon Bushrod, T: $8,050,000
  6. Lamarr Houston, DE: $6,990,000
  7. Martellus Bennett, TE: $6,125,000
  8. Tim Jennings, CB: $5,250,000
  9. Robbie Gould, K: $3,600,000
  10. Matt Slauson, G: $3,267,500

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 7 overall pick
  • Owe fifth-round pick to Broncos in deal for Brock Vereen.

Other:

Overview

After firing head coach Lovie Smith and replacing him with Marc Trestman heading into the 2013 season, the Bears actually regressed record-wise, falling from 10 wins in 2012 to eight in 2013. But win-loss record aside, things were looking up in Chicago, as Trestman seemingly molded an offense that played to the strengths of quarterback JayJay Cutler Cutler and his primary receivers, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. The Bears finished second in scoring and eighth in yards, good for a No. 6 rating in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

But with a postseason berth looming as realistic goal for the 2014 season, the offense cratered amid reports of discord in the locker room, as Cutler threw a league-leading 18 interceptions and was thrown under the bus by offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer. The entire unit struggled, falling to 23rd in scoring, 21st in yards, and 14th in DVOA. The defense, which general manager Phil Emery augmented with free agent additions like Lamarr Houston and Jared Allen, was also lackluster, finishing 31st in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed (but surprisingly 14th in DVOA). Entering the year with high expectations, Chicago ultimately limped to a 5-11 record, good for last in the NFC South.

Coaching/Front Office Changes

From the outset, Trestman was an unconventional hire — he’d been out the NFL for nearly a decade when he was given the Bears HC job, and had been coaching in the CFL for the prior five seasons. Insiders worried at the time of the hire that Trestman might lack the skills required to command an NFL locker room, and while confirmation bias could definitely be at playe here, it’s fair to wonder if Trestman’s personality played a role in the team’s downfall. Issues such as these are tough to judge from an outsider’s perspective, and regardless, it’s safe to say Chicago’s on-the-field performance was sufficiently poor enough to warrant Trestman’s dismissal.

It’s a little easier to judge the performance of Emery, as many of the moves he made to supplement a decent Bears core simply didn’t work out, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Signed to a five-year, $35MM contract, Houston was mostly ineffective before tearing his ACL in October after celebrating a sack while Chicago was losing by 25 points. Allen, meanwhile, was handed $32MM over four years, and while he was more of a contributor than Houston, $32MM (including $15.5MM guaranteed) is a lot of money for a player who turns 33 in April. But the move that probably sealed Emery’s fate was the seven-year extension handed to Cutler, which we’ll delve into below.

Following the firing of Trestman and Emery in late December, the Bears settled on former Saints executive Ryan Pace as their new GM after a search that saw Chicago meet with Chris Ballard of the Chiefs, Brian Gaine of the Dolphins, and Lake Dawson of the Titans. At 37, Pace becomes the youngest general manager in the league. It’s fair to wonder if Pace will employ the same sort of contract structures in Chicago that often led the Saints to having little or no cap space, but given that Pace’s title was player personnel director, he probably doesn’t deserve blame for New Orleans’ cap woes.

Aside from the Broncos, the Bears interviewed the fewest candidates of any club searching for a new head coach. Chicago was one of only two teams who were replacing its general manager in addition to its HC, so it’s possible they wanted to have Pace in place before getting too deep into its coaching hunt. But it’s also conceivable the Bears simply got lucky, as just four days after Denver parted ways with John Fox, Chicago scooped him up, signing the 60-year-old to a four-year contract. Fox, entering his 14th season as an NFL head coach, will bring Adam Gase with him from Denver to head up the offense, while adding former 49ers DC Vic Fangio to lead the defense (and shift to a 3-4 scheme).

Quarterback Situation

“What do we do about Jay?” is the key question surely on the mind of Pace, Fox, and every fan in the Windy City. After Cutler was benched for the penultimate game of the 2014 season, many figured his tenure in Chicago was all but over; he eventually started the season finale after backup Jimmy Clausen suffered a concussion, but after a season in which the 31-year-old Cutler rated as the league’s No. 32 QB per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), it was assumed that the club was ready to move on.

But it’s possible (and even likely) that Cutler’s seven-year, $126.7MM extension that runs through 2020 won’t allow the Bears to throw in the towel just yet. Cutler’s deal contains a fully guaranteed $38MM, which includes his 2015 salary of $15.5MM. That figure, along with the prorated portions of his signing bonus, would leave Chicago with $19.5MM in dead money if it chose to release its quarterback — keeping Cutler on the roster, however, would cost just $16.5MM. Designating Cutler as a post-June 1 cut would leave his 2015 cap hit at $16.5MM, so the Bears would again realize no cap relief.

Realistically, Chicago can’t release Cutler this year, as the cap hit would simply be too high for a player not on the roster. The only alternative, then, would be to trade Cutler, which would reduce his 2015 dead money to just $4MM, saving the Bears $12.5MM in ’15 cap space. Cutler would presumably be in high demand given the paucity of available QBs, as the Buccaneers, Browns, Titans, Bills, and Jets are among the clubs that could have interest (and the cap space required) to acquire the veteran signal-caller.

The central argument against trading Cutler is simply the scarcity of competent starting quarterbacks. The free agent QB market doesn’t offer many inspiring options, as the likes of Mark Sanchez, Brian Hoyer, and Josh McCown (who the Bears met with yesterday) aren’t improvements over Cutler. Similarly, the draft lacks quarterback depth, and as holders of the seventh overall pick, the Bears probably won’t get a shot at Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota without trading up. So without a viable alternative, Chicago’s best course of action might be to ride out 2015 with Cutler, hope for the best, and re-evaluate the situation next offseason.

While Cutler’s future is mostly conjecture for now, neither Pace nor Fox sound too enthused about committing to Cutler for the foreseeable future. Speaking at the combine yesterday, Pace refused to call Cutler the Bears’ starting QB, and said the club would take its time with its evaluations. Fox, meanwhile, was also non-committal, telling reporters, “We’re not up against a deadline…We’ll keep you posted.” The head coach later added: “I don’t think there’s any question there’s ability and talent there but there’s a lot more that goes into it.”

Key Free Agents

While Cutler figures to be the main offseason storyline in Chicago, the Bears do have several players who will hit the open market next month unless new contracts are worked out. From a sentimental standpoint, the most important pending free agents are longtime Bears Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman. Briggs, 34, played in only eight games last season but was the Bears’ third-best defender per PFF, while Tillman, who turns 34 on Monday, appeared in just two games before injuring his triceps. Neither should be priorities as Chicago looks to remake its defense, and I wouldn’t expect either to return in 2015, although Briggs would make more sense, if only on a one-year deal.

The Bears’ most important FA will be defensive tackle Stephen Paea, who if re-signed, would probably need to shift to defensive end in Fangio’s 3-4 look — at 6’1″ and 300 pounds, he has the size to do so. The 26-year-old graded as the No. 11 DT in the league according to PFF, although his sub-par run grade is a bit concerning, given that 3-4 ends’ primary responsibility is to defend the run. The interior defensive line market is flush with options, so Paea could face some competition, but he could command a salary of around $5MM. At that price, Chicago might instead opt to consider players who have more experience in the 3-4.

Safety Chris Conte, who like Tillman has a birthday on Monday (but is eight years younger) is also a free agent. He offers youth (he’s entering his age-26 season) and experience (more than 600 snaps in each of his first three seasons), but he’s dealt with shoulder injuries throughout his career and has produced at merely an average level. In 2014, Conte graded as the No. 63 safety among 87 qualifiers per PFF. He’d been better than that in the two seasons prior, but he’s always been in the middle of the pack relative to his peers. He could make sense as a reserve (especially given the weak safety market), but the Bears should look to upgrade.

Only four more Bears free agents saw more than 200 snaps in 2014. Linebacker D.J. Williams, receiver Josh Morgan, and tight end Dante Rosario were all ineffective last year, and Chicago will probably move on from that trio. But offensive lineman Brian De La Puente had a very successful season in ’14 during which he saw 501 snaps, mostly while filling in at center for Roberto Garza during the early portion of the year. De La Puente is only 28 years old and had to surprisingly accept a one-year deal for the minimum salary benefit last offseason. The Bears extended Garza through 2015, so it’s possible that De La Puente will look for a starting job elsewhere. Otherwise, he’d offer valuable depth along Chicago’s offensive line.

Possible Cap Casualties

With more than $26MM of cap space to work with, the Bears don’t have to make any drastic moves to create more financial flexibility. Chicago’s only pressing issue will be deciding the fate of receiver Brandon Marshall, who is due a 2015 base salary of $7.5MM and scheduled to count $9.575MM against the cap. Releasing him now would give the Bears $3.95MM worth of cap space, while designating him as a post-June 1 cut would create $7.7MM in savings. The 30-year-old Marshall was among the NFL’s best receivers as recently as 2013, but last season saw him catch just 61 passes for 721 yards, and he missed the final three games with broken ribs.

Marshall’s 2015 salary becomes guaranteed on the third day of the 2015 league year, so the Bears need to make a decision on his future before then. The club could conceivably ask him to take a pay cut, but I’d guess that Marshall would prefer to hit the open market rather than accept a salary decrease. If Chicago doesn’t want to retain Marshall, it could opt to explore a trade, which would create the same amount of cap space as a release.

The only other conceivable cut would be guard Matt Slauson, who played well in 2013, but struggled in 2014 before tearing his pectoral in October. He’ll only count about $3.3MM in 2015, however, so I’m guessing the Bears will retain him and hope for a bounce-back season.

Positions Of Need

Nearly every position on the Bears’ defense could use a talent infusion, and given that Fangio will install a new scheme, adding new players is doubly important. The defensive line will need to be revamped, and even if Paea is re-signed, Chicago will need to find nose tackle to anchor the middle of the line. Fox knows Terrance Knighton from their days in Denver, but as the top NT available, Pot Roast will garner a hefty sum. Cheaper options include Dan Williams and B.J. Raji, each of whom is on the right side of 30 and has experience in the 3-4. Raji, in particular, will probably command only a modest salary on a one-year deal after missing the entire 2014 season.

Linebacker could also afford an upgrade, starting with the inside. If the Bears are looking for an early-down run stuffer, there are several options available, including Rey Maualuga, Brandon Spikes, and again playing to the Fox/Broncos connection, Nate Irving. David Harris is also a free agent, but most expect him to stay with the Jets or follow Rex Ryan to the Bills. The edge rushing market is more robust, as while top FA Justin Houston is unlikely to hit free agency, players like Jerry Hughes, Brian Orakpo, and Pernell McPhee are. Someone like Orakpo or Jabaal Sheard could be an interesting add on a short-term deal, as could Akeem Ayers if he doesn’t re-up with the Patriots. Additionally, if the 49ers cut any of Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, or Ahmad Brooks, I’d expect Fangio to push for the Bears to sign them.

Pickings are slim at safety, but the Bears desperately need someone to play alongside Ryan Mundy. Like most of the league, Chicago would love to bring in Devin McCourty, but he’s expected to see the franchise tag in New England. Former Bronco Rahim Moore would make sense, while veteran Antrel Rolle would be a stabilizing presence in the back end. Da’Norris Searcy is said to be looking for larger role than the Bills have given him, and he’d be a smart sign for the Bears, as would Mike Adams or Dawan Landry, each of whom rated among PFF’s top-10 safeties. If the Buccaneers are still trying to trade Dashon Goldson, he could be an option for Chicago given his history with Fangio.

At corner, the Bears are set with Kyle Fuller at one spot and veteran Tim Jennings in the slot, but they could use one more pass defender to play opposite Fuller. Adding veteran Tramon Williams on a short-term pact could be worthwhile, while fellow Packer Davon House could offer some untapped upside and youth (he’s entering his age-25 season). Both Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver have familiarity with Fangio’s scheme, and given the relative lack of draftable corner options, I’d expect the Bears to add at least one CB in free agency.

Needs on the offense aren’t as numerous, but small upgrades could be made here and there. Right tackle Jordan Mills struggled in 2014, but given that he’ll be entering only his third season in the NFL, I’d wager the Bears will give him another opportunity at starting. But depth along the line could be augmented, as rookie Michael Ola was unspectacular in filling in at numerous positions. Reserve options could be added at quarterback, running back, and receiver, but I’d expect the Bears to target these positions in the draft, where the OL and WR positions in particular are said to be deep.

Extension Candidate/Contract Decisions

As a 2012 draft pick, Jeffery is now eligible for an extension; because he wasn’t drafted in the first round, however, Jeffery isn’t attached to a fifth-year option, so his contract ends after 2015. The Bears could use the franchise tag on him, but a long-term deal could be best for both sides, especially if the club moves on from Marshall. Having average 87 receptions, 1,277 yards, and eight touchdowns over the past two years, the 25-year-old Jeffery should be in for a large raise. Any extensions inked by Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant in the coming months should set a ceiling for Jeffery, but he could probably command close to $12MM annually.

Running back Matt Forte is also entering the final year of his contract which has paid him an AAV of $7.6MM. Forte has been both productive and remarkably consistent during his NFL career, and is among the best pass-catching backs in the league. But he’ll be 30 years old entering next offseason, and there could be some concern about the tread on his tires. Still, given that he’s scheduled to count $8.2MM against the cap in ’15, the Bears could offer him a short-term extension in the hopes of creating some immediate financial wiggle room.

The Bears do have a fifth-year option on Shea McClellin, but there’s almost no chance it gets exercised. McClellin has struggled to find a position on defense in his three years in the league, and hasn’t been effective in any role.

Overall Outlook

The Bears have a lot of work to do this offseason, and with a new GM, head coach, and coordinators in place, this club could look a lot different (particularly on defense) come the regular season. But until the club definitively decides what to do with Cutler, little else will make headlines in Chicago. If they do trade Cutler, the Bears could be looking at a full-scale rebuild until they find a new starting quarterback. If they keep Cutler around, they’ll need to add several pieces to their defense and hope that an infusion of talent will lead to better results. Either way, it could be a tough road to relevancy in an NFC North that features two playoff teams in the Packers and Lions, as well as the Vikings, who look to be on the rise themselves.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

1 comment Chicago Bears Offseason Outlook PFR Originals

West Notes: Chiefs, Manning, Knighton

By | at February 15, 2015 4:33 pm

Count Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith among those who didn’t see the shakeup in San Francisco coming. “I think for me, it’s still just tough to believe all those guys are gone, all that turnover,” Smith told Mark Purdy of the San Jose Mercury News. “I wasn’t there so obviously it’s hard for me to speculate on any of that. I was just kind of shocked. There were a lot of ballgames that got won over the last few years, but for whatever reason, they couldn’t make it work.” Smith, of course, played for the 49ers from 2005-12 before being traded to Kansas City. Here’s more from the West divisions:

  • Smith’s backup, Chase Daniel, is scheduled to count $4.8MM against the Chiefs’ cap in 2015, the highest such figure for a No. 2 quarterback in the league. Kansas City can save $3.8MM by releasing him, but Daniel doesn’t expect that to happen, according to Todd Palmer of the Kansas City Star. Indeed, as Palmer notes, cutting Daniel would leave the Chiefs with inexperienced options like Aaron Murray and Tyler Bray behind Smith, although the club did add Terrelle Pryor earlier this offseason.
  • Following reports that Peyton Manning intends to play next season, Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap looks at a few salary cap maneuvers the Broncos could use to lower the future Hall of Famer’s cap hit. Fitzgerald writes that Denver could either convert most of Manning’s base salary into a signing bonus, or add voidable years to the end of his contract — either move would allow them to retain Demaryius Thomas and make other additions.
  • Terrance Knighton is a perfect fit for the Broncos’ new 3-4 scheme, and although he wants to remain in Denver, there haven’t been any contract talks as of yet, writes Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. Renck speculates that Knighton could latch on with former Broncos defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio in Oakland, projecting a five-year, $30MM deal.
  • Joel Corry of CBSSports.com looks at the top candidates to take a pay cut before the 2015 season, and three of the players — Sam Bradford of the Rams, Larry Fitzgerald of the Cardinals, and Tamba Hali of the Chiefs — reside in West divisions. I took a look at Hali’s chances of getting released last month.
0 comments Arizona Cardinals Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Bengals

By | at February 15, 2015 3:40 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. A.J. Green, WR: $10,176,000
  2. Leon Hall, CB: $9,600,000
  3. Andy Dalton, QB: $9,600,000
  4. Geno Atkins, DT: $9,000,000
  5. Andre Smith, T: $6,362,500
  6. Andrew Whitworth, T: $6,200,000
  7. Vontaze Burfict, LB: $5,175,000
  8. Carlos Dunlap, DE: $4,900,000
  9. Reggie Nelson, S: $4,775,000
  10. Domata Peko, DT: $3,700,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 21 overall pick
  • No traded draft picks

Other:

Overview

For the fourth straight season, the Bengals, head coach Marvin Lewis, and quarterback Andy Dalton finished better than .500 and earned a postseason berth. And for the fourth straight season, Cincinnati was eliminated in the wild card round, this time via a 26-10 loss to Andrew Luck and the Colts. As such, it’s hard to qualify the 2014 Bengals season as either a success or a failure — instead, Cincinnati seems to be stuck in some kind of middle ground, good enough to have a high floor, but flawed enough that they’ll never reach a higher ceiling.A.J. Green

Under new coordinator Hue Jackson, the Bengals’ offense never really took off — although the freshly-extended Dalton completed a career-high 64.2% of his passes, he still threw 17 interceptions against just 19 touchdowns, finishing as the 21st-best QB in the league per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In his defense, Dalton didn’t have many options to throw to, as Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert combined to appear in one game, while A.J. Green, Jermaine Gresham, and Giovani Bernard missed significant time dealing with their own injuries. While rookie running back Jeremy Hill was a bright spot, rushing for more than 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns, the offense was below-average as a whole, finishing 21st in DVOA.

The more surprising regression occurred on defense, where the Paul Guenther-led unit fell from the No. 5 DVOA ranking in 2013 to 14th last season. Some of that fall could be attributed to the loss of former DC Mike Zimmer, who took the Vikings’ head coaching job, but injuries also plagued the defense. Star linebacker Vontaze Burfict dealt with numerous ailments throughout the year, and ultimately played in just five games. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins, dominant until tearing his ACL in 2013, never looked fully healthy. The unit also failed to generate any sort of pass rush, finishing last in the league with just 20 sacks.

Key Free Agents

The Bengals’ crop of pending free agents is primarily made up of role players, but there are three FAs who have been significant factors in recent years. Tight end Jermaine Gresham, a first-round selection in 2010, caught 62 passes for 460 yards and five touchdowns last year, but wasn’t a great blocker in either the pass or the run game. Reports at the end of the season indicated that teammates were upset with Gresham’s inability to play through pain, and while that might not factor into Cincinnati’s thinking, it doesn’t help his chances of being re-signed. He’s never been a great fit for the Cincinnati offense, and given that Eifert will look to take on a larger role in 2015, Gresham probably won’t return.

On the other hand, guard Clint Boling should be retained, as he’s started 44 games during the past three seasons, becoming a key cog on an excellent offensive line. The 2011 fourth-round pick finished as PFF’s No. 19 overall guard among 81 qualifiers, especially excelling in the run game. The Bengals tend to re-sign their own contributors who perform well, so Boling should be brought back on a multi-year pact, probably on a ~$4MM salary.

Linebacker Rey Maualuga is the third key free agent on the Bengals’ to-do list this offseason. He’s been consistently average during his career — nothing more, nothing less. But he’s solid against the run, knows the scheme after starting 84 games during his career, and has the ability to fill in at middle linebacker if Burfict is out. The 28-year-old might be allowed to test the market, but if he doesn’t find a deal in free agency, he’ll likely be back in the Queen City on a one-year deal.

Terence Newman‘s role had been diminished by the end of the season, and the 36-year-old would probably have to accept a role as the No. 4 CB to return in 2015. Marshall Newhouse struggled mightily while filling in for Andre Smith at right tackle, so much so that veteran Eric Winston was brought near the end of the year — the latter could be retained, but the former won’t be. Jason Campbell could be re-signed to compete with A.J. McCarron for the backup quarterback job, but receiver Brandon Tate will probably be let go as the Bengals search for a more dynamic return man.

Possible Cap Casualties

Two defensive line mainstays — Domata Peko and Robert Geathers — are overwhelmingly likely to be released in the coming weeks. The 30-year-old Peko started all 16 games in 2014 but was extremely ineffective, finishing as the second-worst defensive tackle in the league per PFF. Due to count $3.7MM against the cap next year, Peko won’t leave any dead money on the Bengal’s books when he’s cut. Geathers, meanwhile, has become nothing more than a rotational lineman after spending 11 years in Cincinnati, and the team will save $3.05MM by cutting him.

Receiver Greg Little will also probably be cut, but his release will save the Bengals just $745K. Cincinnati has managed its cap well in recent years, so there aren’t many veteran contracts that need to be dealt with to create financial space. Moreover, the club already has more than $34MM in projected cap space to work with, so cutting role players to save a few dollars wouldn’t move the needle much.

Positions Of Need

The Bengals do have several positions where an infusion of talent via free agent additions could be helpful, but a disclaimer must be noted. Like the Packers in the NFC, Cincinnati simply doesn’t spend on free agents, no matter how much cap space it has. In the late 2000s, the Bengals signed one major free agent per season: Antwan Odom in ’08, Laveranues Coles in ’09, and Antonio Bryant in ’10. Each of those signees was a major bust, and the Bengals have retreated from the open market ever since. They added role players like Nate Clements (2011) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (2012), signed no free agents until late April in 2013, and added only veteran depth in the form of Newhouse and Danieal Manning prior to 2014.

This could be the year for the Bengals to dip their toe into free agency, however — armed with the aforementioned $34.63MM of cap space, Cincinnati could take advantage of a free agent class that is well-stocked with players at its positions of need. First and foremost is pass-rusher, where the Bengals need a viable starter to line up opposite Carlos Dunlap. Greg Hardy could be the perfect fit for the club’s 4-3 defense, and the Bengals have shown a willingness to deal with players with off-the-field issues in the past. The Panthers haven’t shown any interest in retaining Hardy, and even though charges against him were recently dismissed, he could face a depressed market due to his baggage. Jason Pierre-Paul, Jerry Hughes, and Brandon Graham could also present options at defensive end, but each will likely require a long-term deal with a hefty guarantee. More likely, Cincinnati will go bargain-hunting, meaning players like Derrick Morgan, Adrian Clayborn, or even Dwight Freeney could be on the table.

Help along the interior defensive line could be just as key to generating a pass rush, and if Peko and Geathers both go, defensive tackle could another area to target in free agency. Cincinnati won’t be players for the top DTs available like Ndamukong Suh, Terrance Knighton, or Nick Fairley. But someone like Henry Melton, who recently had his option declined by the Cowboys, could be a fit for the Bengals, as could Lions FA C.J. Mosley, who finished as the No. 26 DT per PFF after filling in for an injured Fairley.

Next up on Cincinnati’s to-do list should be tight end, where Gresham will likely leave via free agency, and Eifert will be question mark heading into his third season. ESPN.com’s Coley Harvey has pushed the idea of the Bengals signing Jordan Cameron, who would add a different dimension to Cincinnati’s offense. I like the fit, but Cincy probably won’t commit to a player with such injury history unless it’s on a one-year deal. I think Charles Clay would make some sense for the Bengals, but he would offer production similar to what the team hopes they can get from Eifert. More likely, the Bengals will add a strong blocking TE to replace Gresham, so Virgil Green or Matt Spaeth could be options.

The Bengals could also look to make an addition at either wide receiver or offensive tackle. At receiver, the team is stocked with a lot of talent in Green, Jones, and Mohamed Sanu, but as was clear when injuries struck last season, there isn’t much in the way of depth. None of the big-name pass-catcher make sense given that the club will likely be paying Green a large salary in due time, but reserves like Eddie Royal, Vincent Brown, or Leonard Hankerson could be intriguing adds. Along the front five, Harvey wrote yesterday that Winston will likely be back as the swing tackle, but if the Bengals want someone who can play the interior as well, a veteran such as Adam Snyder or Gabe Carimi could be in the cards.

I also expect the Bengals to make additions to shore up the linebacking corps, especially in the wake of Burfict’s lost 2014. Maualuga could be re-signed, but I’d guess the rest of the LB reinforcements will come through the draft.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The single most pressing issue on the Bengals’ table is the contract status of Green. Cincinnati exercised his fifth-year option for 2015, so the 26-year-old will play under a one-year, $10.176MM deal. As Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently outlined, the Bengals could conceivably slap the franchise tag on Green in 2016 for a cost of ~$14MM, and then do so again in 2017 for approximately $16MM. Obviously, this isn’t the ideal situation, as the cap hits would be high, and Green would presumably be disgruntled. A long-term extension that pays Green like a true No. 1 receiver ($12-14MM AAV) would be best for both sides, but Green’s reps probably want to wait and see if Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas are able to reach free agency and break the bank, therefore setting a baseline for contract talks.

The Bengals have another crop of players under contract only through 2015, such as tackles Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith and safeties George Iloka and Reggie Nelson. Whitworth will probably retire as a Bengal, so a deal to secure that future is in order, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Cincinnati lets Smith walk. Both safeties should garner new contracts, but I’d expect Iloka, who was quietly the 12th-best safety in the league per PFF, to be the priority.

Cincinnati will also have to decide on a pair of fifth-year options, as 2012 first-rounders Kevin Zeitler and Dre Kirkpatrick near the end of their rookie deals. Zeitler is a no-brainer to be exercised, as he’s been nothing but solid at right guard; he’s another candidate for a long-term extension. Kirkpatrick is more complicated — he played well late last season, but contributed next to nothing during his first two years in the league. The Bengals would love to have another season by which to gauge the 25-year-old corner, but as they don’t have that luxury, I’d guess they pick up his option and hope for the best.

Overall Outlook

To say the least, 2015 is an absolutely crucial season for the Bengals. If the club fails to win playoff game (or misses the postseason altogether), I’d expect owner Mike Brown & Co. to take a serious look at “blowing things up.” Lewis likely won’t stick around if the team loses in the first round once again, and even Dalton’s future would be uncertain, as 2016 marks the first year in which Cincinnati could release its quarterback and save money against the cap. For now, the Bengals need to lock up its star pass-catcher in Green, and look into long-term deals with the rest of its young core. As I noted, Cincinnati never plays the free agency game, but with so much on the line, it’s fair to wonder if this is the offseason where the Bengals spend some money on the open market.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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NFC Notes: Rams, LA, Free, Bucs, Hardy, Lions

By | at February 15, 2015 2:19 pm

Rams owner Stan Kroenke is intent on moving his club to Los Angeles, but the city of St. Louis is just as keen on retaining the Rams. St. Louis’ stadium task force has been impressive its quest to build and fund a new stadium, and if they’re successful, the NFL could be faced with a public relations nightmare, with Kroenke leaving for a major market in LA even though St. Louis rose to the challenge presented by the league.

Presenting an alternate theory, Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch offers two scenarios that would seemingly please both entities involved. In one, Kroenke could purchase the Rams from Mark Davis and move the team to LA, leaving the Rams in St. Louis. In the second (and more likely, per Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk) scenario, Kroenke and the Rams would move to Los Angeles, but Davis and the Raiders would move to St. Louis and a new stadium. As Florio writes, Miklasz’s “theory” sounds like a detailed account, as though he might have heard it from an off-the-record source but isn’t allowed to actually “report” the news, so it will be interesting to see if any more comes of this.

Here’s more from the NFC:

  • Cowboys tackle Doug Free‘s 2015 and 2016 contract years voided today, according to Joel Corry of CBSSports.com (Twitter link). Dallas will carry $3.98MM in dead money on its books in 2015 as a result. The 31-year-old Free, meanwhile, should be one of the top free agent tackles on the market, and reports have indicated that the Cowboy will only sign one of him or Jermey Parnell.
  • Longtime Jaguars defensive end Paul Spicer is interviewing for the Buccaneers assistant D-line coaching job, tweets Alex Marvez of FOX Sports. As Marvez notes, Spicer played under current Tampa defensive line coach Joe Cullen while the two were in Jacksonville.
  • Even though the domestic violence charges against Greg Hardy were dismissed, the league will take a hardline stance on the Panthers defensive end, writes Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer. The NFL has asked to unseal the court documents from Hardy’s case and could look to suspend him for up to six games. If the league does so, the NFLPA will surely file a grievance, adds Person.
  • The Lions are likely to lose either Ndamukong Suh or Nick Fairley to the open market, and backups C.J. Mosley and Andre Fluellen are pending free agents, as well. But defensive end Darryl Tapp (also a FA-to-be) is confident that Detriots’s management will bring back a defensive line full of contributors. “I have no reason to think it wouldn’t be the same situation going into next year as far the guys they would bring in who would buy completely into the system and do things the right way,” Tapp told Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press.
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Giants Restructure Cullen Jenkins’ Contract

By | at February 15, 2015 12:15 pm

Though they have more than $17MM in cap space to work with when free agency begins, the Giants have made a move to create a tad more financial wiggle room by restructuring the contract of defensive lineman Cullen Jenkins. According to Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News (Twitter link), Jenkins accepted a pay cut, lowering his 2015 base salary from $2.2MM to $1MM. In exchange, the 34-year-old Jenkins was given a $375K per-game roster bonus, meaning in total, New York created $825K in new space, tweets Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap.

Jenkins’ new deal will include just $250K in guaranteed money, per Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun (via Twitter), who also reports that Jenkins can earn an extra $100K through incentives. His revised 2015 cap figure will be $2.091MM. Jenkins, in his second season with the Giants, started 11 games, finishing as the No. 33 defensive tackle among 81 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Due to his age and his relatively mediocre 2014 performance, I’m guessing that Jenkins was told that he would be released had he not accepted this pay reduction.

The Giants will now focus on re-signing pending free agents such as defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, safety Antrel Rolle, and cornerback Walter Thurmond, as well as targeting help for their battered offensive line and linebacking unit. For more on what New York might do in the coming months, check out PFR’s Zach Links’ Offseason Outlook for the Giants.

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PFR Originals: 2/8/15 – 2/15/15

By | at February 15, 2015 11:51 am

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • Luke Adams began examining the 2015 free agent market, starting with the offensive skill positions: quarterbacks (link), running backs (link), receivers (link), and tight ends (link).
  • Our Offseason Outlook series continued, with four more teams being covered. I looked at the Dolphins (link), Zach Links previewed the Giants (link) and the Cowboys (link), and Rob DiRe analyzed the Eagles (link).
  • Luke went over the options the Patriots have for cornerback Darrelle Revis, whose 2015 option (with a cap hit of $25MM) seems untenable.
  • Sam Robinson took a look at the free agent stock of Broncos TE Julius Thomas, who will be the top tight end available on the market. Check out the rest of our Free Agent Stock Watch series here.
  • Luke recapped all the major coaching changes of 2015.
  • PFR readers believe Brian Hoyer is the best free agent QB available, with Mark Sanchez finishing in a close second.
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Week In Review: 2/8/15 – 2/15/15

By | at February 15, 2015 11:28 am

The headlines from the past week at PFR:

Key News:

Coaching:

  • Packers – Tom Clements promoted to AHC with play-calling duties; numerous other changes (link)
  • Seahawks – Kris Richard, DC (link)

Options:

Re-Signed:

Released:

Retired:

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Packers To Make OC Change

By | at February 8, 2015 7:20 pm

7:20pm: The Packers have decided to shake up their offensive staff, elevating Clements to associate head coach and moving Bennett to replace him at offensive coordinator, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reports.

The most notable change from this reshuffling: Clements will accept the play-calling reins from McCarthy. These increased roles could make it easier for Packers assistants to receive head-coaching interviews, Rapoport tweeted  Sunday after McCarthy questioned why his top staffers were never the “hot candidates,” in a January Rapoport account.

A former running back in Green Bay, Bennett coached the receivers the past four years after presiding over the running backs in the previous six seasons. The Packers have continued to produce top-flight receiving corps despite losses of key homegrown cogs Donald Driver (retirement), Greg Jennings (signed with the Vikings in 2013) and James Jones (UFA-Vikings in 2014).

Homegrown talents Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb combined for 25 receiving scores this season, and both landed on Pro Bowl rosters.

4:36 pm: The Packers 2014 season was a successful one by most standards, as the club won 12 games and finished first in the NFC North. A devastating loss to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game looms over Green Bay, however, and the team is now reportedly considering changes to its coaching staff. Sources tell Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com that head coach Mike McCarthy is “looking at different possibilities” with regards to altering his staff’s responsibilities, with once such scenario entailing him relinquishing play-calling duties.

Radio station 104.5 The Fan in Green Bay reported (Twitter link) that offensive coordinator Tom Clements is set to be promoted to associate head coach and will be handed the job of calling plays, while current receivers coach Edgar Bennett would shift to OC. Demovsky couldn’t confirm that exact structural change, and added that nothing has been finalized yet. Still, sources tell the ESPN scribe that McCarthy has privately noted the difficulty of managing the day-to-day operations of the team while also tending to play-calling, so the staff changes shouldn’t come as a surprise.

McCarthy, the Packers’ HC since 2006, has called the offensive plays for the duration of his reign in Green Bay. The offensive unit has been consistently above-average, finishing no lower than 11th in DVOA since 2007, including two No. 1 finishes (2011 and 2014). Clements has been on the Packers’ coaching staff since 2006, as well, acting as the QB coach from ’06-’12, then taking over as OC in 2013 following the departure of Joe Philbin. He was the play-caller for the Bills from 2004-05.

Sam Robinson contributed to this report.

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