2015 Free Agent Power Rankings
As we approach Week 12 of the NFL season, teams are able to undergo something of a self-assessment and determine whether they are legitimate playoff contenders. Additionally, clubs can begin to look toward the offseason, examine their current personnel, and decide where improvements can be pursued. With that in mind, we’re unveiling the inaugural edition of PFR’s 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings, an overview of the talent available in next year’s FA class.
A couple of things to keep in mind: First, we’ll only be looking at unrestricted free agents. Restricted free agency is tough to evaluate because it’s unclear at what level RFAs will be tendered. Also, restricted free agents rarely change teams, so sticking with UFAs will streamline this exercise. Second, in today’s NFL, available cap space is often utilized on five key positions — quarterback, left tackle, wide receiver, cornerback, and pass-rusher. Because there aren’t any impact QBs or LTs available in the 2015 crop, this list is exceptionally WR-, CB-, and DE/OLB-heavy.
1. Justin Houston, OLB: Leading the league with 13 sacks, Houston, 26 in January, will be the premier defensive player available when free agency begins in March. He has youth on his side, his production has increased each year he’s been in the league, and he plays one of the most critical defensive positions. Unsurprisingly, he grades as the best 3-4 outside ‘backer among 46 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), excelling both against the run and the pass. Jason Cole of Bleacher Report recently reported that though the Chiefs previously had concerns about extending Houston, a long-term deal is now expected to get worked out, with the edge-rusher receiving a contract that will pay him a little less than J.J. Watt.
2. Ndamukong Suh, DT: A defensive tackle wouldn’t typically be listed among top-of-the-line free agents, but Suh is unarguably a game-changer on the defensive side of the ball. He is sixth in sacks among DTs, and is a stopper against the run as well, rating as PFF’s No. 1 DT in that capacity — he also rates as the league’s best overall defensive tackle. Suh, the second overall pick in the 2010 draft, is a key contributor to a Lions defense that rates first in both yards allowed and DVOA. He currently earns about $12.9MM under the terms of his rookie contract. Fellow defensive tackle (and 2010 draft class member) Gerald McCoy recently signed a extension with an AAV of $13.6MM, a figure that Suh will surely aim to best.
3. Demaryius Thomas, WR: With a torrid 2014, Thomas, 27 next month, has cemented his status as the best pass-catcher available. Through 10 games, he’s racked up 72 receptions for 1,105 yards and six touchdowns as the No. 1 target on the league’s best offense. Thomas is tied for second among WRs with 17 receptions for 20+ yards. Doubters may opine that Thomas’ production is inflated by playing with Peyton Manning, and while there’s probably some merit to that, Thomas is still an excellent player who will do well in free agency. The Broncos don’t expect to sign Thomas during the season, and if he reaches the open market, he should reach the $14MM AAV that PFR’s Luke Adams projected in June.
4. Dez Bryant, WR: The latest news revolving around Bryant includes a rumored long-term proposal from the Cowboys in the 10-year, $114MM range, but with only $20MM in guarantees. It seems as though there’s some contentiousness on both sides, and with Bryant recently signing on with Roc Nation, talks could only get more harsh. Additionally, Dallas is short on cap space, and with DeMarco Murray also a pending free agent, the club could be faced with difficult decisions. A franchise tag is possible if the two parties can’t reach an agreement, but a long-term pact is probably in the better interests of both team and player. On the season, Bryant has 56 receptions for 793 yards and eight touchdowns.
5. Chris Harris, CB: While the 2014 free agent class contained many shutdown corners, including Darrelle Revis, Aqib Talib, and Vontae Davis, this year’s crop doesn’t have the same level of top-end talent. Additionally, a number of No. 1 CBs like Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson, and Joe Haden have signed recent contract extensions, so positional scarcity will cause Harris’ stock to rise. It doesn’t hurt that he grades as the league’s best corner, per Pro Football Focus, who give him a +17.2 mark against the pass. While the Broncos and Harris were reportedly discussing a new deal earlier this month, talks evidently stalled recently. It’s not out of the question that Harris could match the $13-14MM per year that Sherman, Haden, et al. received.
6. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE: Pierre-Paul was perhaps the most difficult player to slot on this list. He has name value, has been a part of historic defensive units, plays a preeminent position, and is the league’s best run defender among 4-3 DEs, per PFF. However, since his 16.5-sack season in 2011, he hasn’t been adept at bringing down the quarterback. In 2014, he’s accrued only 3.5 sacks. Still, he’ll be just 26 in February, and his potential should be able to secure him a contract in the $12MM AAV range.
7. Randall Cobb, WR: Cobb is the youngest free agent on this list (he tuned 24 in August), and his youth could be a key factor in his receiving a large contact. The Packers already extended fellow receiver Jordy Nelson, and it’s unclear whether the club will want to heavily invest in one position group. Still, we heard last night that league insiders don’t expect Green Bay GM Ted Thompson to let Cobb hit free agency. Cobb leads WRs with 10 receiving touchdowns, and is tops in terms of DYAR. Although I estimated in October that he would sign a contract similar to that of Golden Tate (five years, $31MM), I’m starting to think that was a little light.
8. Jeremy Maclin, WR: The concerns about Maclin are obvious: he’ll be 27 next season, he suffered a torn ACL in 2013, and though his numbers are impressive, he plays in an offense designed to produce eye-popping statistics. Still, Maclin, who’s caught 57 balls for 921 yards and nine touchdowns, should be able to find a large deal when he hits free agency. He signed a one-year deal worth $6MM to stay with the Eagles for 2014, but as Luke noted when examining Maclin as an extension candidate, it’s conceivable that he could match or exceed the five-year, $36.25 deal that Eric Decker received from the Jets.
9. Julius Thomas, TE: Following his 2013 breakout, Thomas is again playing like of the best tight ends in the league. His 12 touchdowns lead the NFL, and he’s third in DYAR among TEs. If the Broncos are able to work out an extension with Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas is extremely likely to be slapped with the franchise tag. The franchise figure for tight ends, which was $7.035MM last season, would be manageable for Denver. If he does hit the open market, Thomas should easily secure a deal that would place him among the top-five highest-paid TEs. Is it possible he challenges Jimmy Graham‘s four-year, $40MM pact?
10. DeMarco Murray, RB: It might be surprising to see the NFL’s best running back in 2014 listed at the bottom of these rankings, but it’s important to remember that running back is a severely devalued position. As Grantland’s Bill Barnwell outlined yesterday, contracts for free agent RBs go awry more often than not, and Murray isn’t without question marks, specifically in the health department. Additionally, Murray could face competition from backs we know will be free agents – like Mark Ingram and Frank Gore – and those we think will hit the open market, like Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. Ultimately, Murray will probably earn a lot less than most observers currently estimate.
Also considered: Cliff Avril, Brandon Flowers, Greg Hardy, Jerry Hughes, Mark Ingram, Devin McCourty, Brian Orakpo, Michael Roos, Jason Worilds.
Extra Points: McDaniels, GMs, Peterson, Avant
It’s inevitable that some teams will be making coaching changes when the 2014 season comes to a close, leading Adam Caplan of ESPN (Insider subscription required) to speak with NFL executives to compile a ranking of the most promising head-coaching candidates. Per Caplan, Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is the most popular name for coaching-needy teams. Execs feel that McDaniels, at 32, was too young when he took charge of the Broncos from 2010-12, and that he could be an option for the 49ers if Jim Harbaugh doesn’t return. Seahwawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, Broncos offensive coordinator Adam Gase, and Steelers offensive line coach Mike Munchak round out the top-five of Caplan’s list. Here’s more from around the league…
- As the inclusion of Munchak in the above list shows, head coaches often get a second chance to lead a team. However, there aren’t a similar number of retread general managers, writes Albert Breer of NFL.com, who notes that of the league’s 30 GMs, only Washington’s Bruce Allen has previously held that title with another club. Breer points to ex-Chiefs GM Scott Pioli and former Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum as two decision-makers who could resurface with different teams.
- All signs point to Vikings running back Adrian Peterson playing in a different city in 2015, and Ben Goessling of ESPN.com looks at several destinations for the now-controversial veteran, listing the 49ers, the Falcons, and of course, the Cowboys as teams that could show interest in Peterson.
- After Jason Avant signed with the Chiefs earlier today, his agent, Doug Hendrickson, tweeted a parting shot at the veteran’s former club, the Panthers: “[I] said he deserved a better place, and he found one.” In Kansas City, Avant reunites with Andy Reid, who was the Eagles’ head coach while Avant was in Philadelphia.
- Speaking of the Panthers, Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer pens an excellent piece looking at the daunting offseason that faces Carolina. General manager Dave Gettleman & Co. may need to find a new left tackle and pass-rusher, and make a decision on quarterback Cam Newton, all while being saddled with the unwisely contracts of running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.
Pete Carroll: Marshawn Lynch Is “Our Guy”
Though recent reports have indicated that the Seahawks plan to move on from Marshawn Lynch following the 2014 season, head coach Pete Carroll disputed that the veteran running back is as good as gone. “Somebody just started talking about that — he’s under contract next year, we’d love to have him back,” Carroll told Jim Corbett of USA Today. “There’s no hesitation in us saying that and there never has been. Somebody else said that. That’s never come from here. No one thinks that at all.
“Marshawn’s playing the best he’s played since he’s been here,” Carroll continued. “His feet are on fire. He’s tough as hell. He’s doing everything. He’s catching the ball. He’s our guy. And he has been all this time.”
Of course, these comments are far from a guarantee that Lynch will return to Seattle in 2015. And though Carroll does have final say over the construction of the Seahawks’ roster, it wouldn’t behoove him to be truthful if he does intend to jettison Lynch during the offseason. Regardless of the club’s future plans, Lynch is undoubtedly an important part of Seattle’s roster in 2014, and Carroll wouldn’t gain anything by discussing how the team will proceed with regards to Lynch’s future.
However, the fact remains that Lynch is a strong candidate to be released before next season. The Seahawks can clear $7MM in cap space by cutting Lynch, who’s cap number is made up of a $5MM base salary and a $2MM roster bonus. That cap relief would be beneficial to Seattle as it attempts to sign young contributors, such as quarterback Russell Wilson and linebacker Bobby Wagner, to long-term contracts. Additionally, the club has running backs Christine Michael and Robert Turbin waiting in the wings; with the RBs as interchangeable as they are, it could make sense for the Seahawks to hand the backfield to younger, cheaper players, and use the cap savings on improving their offensive line.
For his part, Lynch spoke with NFL.com’s Michael Silver earlier this week, and though it’s often difficult to get a read on what he’s actually thinking, Lynch didn’t sound overly confident that he would be with Seattle in 2015.
NFC Notes: Peterson, Bush, Unger, Williams
As we learned last week, the NFLPA filed a grievance for an expedited Adrian Peterson hearing, which will occur on Monday. As Albert Breer of NFL.com details out (in a series of Twitter links), Peterson could return to game action as early as next Sunday. In one possible scenario, Peterson could win the grievance on Monday, be immediately suspended by the league, appeal the suspension, and play while the appeal process takes place. In the event that the Vikings running back is disciplined on Monday, a key term will be “time served,” notes Breer. Under the league’s new domestic violence policy, a first-time offender receives a six-game ban. Peterson has missed nine games while on the commissioner’s exempt list, so we’ll have to see how the NFL factors in those absences when levying a suspension. Here’s more from the NFC, including some injury updates on several key players:
- Saints safety Rafael Bush suffered a fractured tibia during today’s loss against the Bengals, and will be sidelined for the forseeable future, writes Mike Triplett of ESPN.com. New Orleans already lost one key defensive back earlier this season, when free agent signee Jairus Byrd was placed on injured reserve after injuring his knee. As Triplett notes, the Saints will look to recent addition Jamarca Sanford and rookie Marcus Ball to step in for Bush.
- The Seahawks might need to replace a key member along their offensive line, as head coach Pete Carroll told reporters, including Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times, that center Max Unger suffered a high ankle sprain during today’s game. Carroll didn’t estimate how much time Unger would miss, but such injuries usually involve a four-to-six-week recovery period. Second-year center Patrick Lewis is Unger’s direct backup.
- Washington tackle Trent Williams will undergo an MRI tomorrow, but the early word is that he sprained his MCL, per John Keim of ESPN.com. Williams luckily escaped ACL damage, but it’s still conceivable that he’ll miss some game action.
Buccaneers Likely To Make Offseason Trades
The Buccaneers were one of the most oft-mentioned teams preceding the trade deadline last month, and although they did end up making two deals – shipping Mark Barron to the Rams and Jonathan Casillas to the Patriots – Tampa retained many of the players who were rumored to be on the trading block. The club isn’t finished reworking its roster, however, as Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com reports that the Bucs will shop Vincent Jackson, Doug Martin, and Dashon Goldson during the offseason.
Jackson seemed to be the likeliest candidate to be traded before the deadline; while his production has waned this season, an acquiring team could have easily released him after the season if he didn’t improve. The Eagles were reportedly interested in trading for the veteran receiver, but wouldn’t meet Tampa Bay’s asking price of a second-round pick. With pass-catcher Mike Evans showing that he can be the focal point of a passing attack, it makes sense that the Bucs would want to get out from under Jackson’s contract while at the same time recouping some value.
Martin has been injured and/or ineffective since his excellent rookie season, but because he still offers potential, and is playing on a cheap rookie contract, teams like the Patriots were interested in acquiring him before the deadline. The Buccaneers drafted fellow running back Charles Sims in the third round of this year’s draft, and with Bobby Rainey also proving himself as a competent ball-carrier, the club could view Martin as expendable.
Goldson will be almost impossible to move; given his subpar level of play and his enormous contract, the Bucs would be likely to receive a conditional seventh-round pick in exchange for the veteran safety. He’s due a $7.5MM base salary in 2015 ($3MM of which is guaranteed), and he’s graded as the third-worst safety in the league among 85 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Pat Yasinkas of ESPN.com recently concluded that it was unlikely that Goldson would return to Tampa next season, and while I agree, it’s far more likely that he’s released than traded.
In the same piece, La Canfora reports that the Buccaneers are likely to bring in a new offensive coordinator next season. Jeff Tedford, who had never before called plays at the NFL level, was slated to act as Tampa Bay’s OC, but health concerns have caused him to sit out the entire season. Quarterbacks coach Marcus Arroyo has taken over play-calling duties, but La Canfora says the offensive staff has been “undermanned and scrambling,” and they’re unsurprisingly 31st in offensive DVOA.
Broncos Expect Manning To Play In 2015
The Broncos expect quarterback Peyton Manning to hold off on retiring for at least one more season, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (link via Rapoport’s colleague Connor Orr), who says that Denver thinks the future Hall of Famer will play in 2015. Manning, who will be 39 when next season gets underway, could hang it up if the Broncos win the Super Bowl, however.
Per Rapoport, Manning is intent on holding all of the NFL’s passing records before he retires. He recently broke the Brett Favre’s mark for career touchdown passes, but he’s still second to Favre in career passing yards. Manning needs roughly 4,000 more yards to pass the ex-Packer, meaning he could likely break the record at some point in 2015. He also trails Favre in completions, and would need to complete in excess of 500 more passes to surpass Favre. Additionally, Manning isn’t No. 1 in marks like quarterback rating or completion percentage, but he’s probably more interested in accruing counting totals than rate stats.
Manning’s decision will obviously impact the Broncos’ offseason plans — the club attacked free agency earlier this year, adding veterans such as DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward, and Emmanuel Sanders as it geared up for at least one more Super Bowl with Manning at the helm. With more than $31MM available in 2015 cap space, Denver would likely take a similar approach next March if Manning decides to play. Of course, Denver will need to retain two of Mannings’ top weapons, Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas, but the team would probably use free agency to bolster its roster, especially its linebacking unit and its offensive line.
Manning is in the third year of a five-year, $96MM contract he signed with the Broncos prior to the 2012 season. Neither his ’15 or ’16 base salary is guaranteed, but he’ll obviously earn those salaries as long as he opts to keep playing.
Latest On Jim Harbaugh
We’ve heard for months that Jim Harbaugh isn’t likely to return as the 49ers head coach in 2015, and while there’s some been some speculation about his next stop, we’ve yet to see anything concrete. However, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport (link via Rapoport’s colleague Connor Orr), while confirming that “it would be surprise” if Harbaugh returned to San Francisco next season, has shed a little light on Harbaugh’s future, reporting that the Dolphins are no longer an option to land the 49ers head coach. Meanwhile, given that Harbaugh’s family would like to remain in the Bay Area, the Raiders could emerge as a candidate to secure Harbaugh’s services.
Dolphins owner Stephen Ross pursued Harbaugh following the 2010 season despite the fact that Tony Sparano was still under contract as the club’s head coach, so it wasn’t surprising that reports surfaced linking the two parties again. However, Miami has turned its season around as of late, and currently sits at 6-4, good for second place in the AFC East. As such, head coach Joe Philbin is unlikely to be fired, and even if he is let go, Rapoport says that Harbaugh would still not be “on the Dolphins’ radar.” In fact, Ross, a University of Michigan alum, would prefer to see Harbaugh take over in Ann Arbor, tweets Rapoport.
The Raiders connection probably makes more sense at this point, especially given that Harbaugh’s wife reportedly wants to remain in the Bay Area. Oakland fired Dennis Allen after an 0-4 start, and in an odd twist of fate, installed Sparano as its interim head coach. The Raiders are still winless, which makes it unlikely that Sparano or general manager Reggie McKenzie will be allowed to keep their jobs in 2015. If Harbaugh were offered total control over the team, he could be interested in joining an Oakland club that boasts building blocks on both sides of the ball (quarterback Derek Carr and linebacker Khalil Mack), and will be entitled to another top-five draft pick next year.
PFR Originals: 11/9/14 – 11/16/14
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- I profiled Patriots safety Devin McCourty in the latest entry in our Extension Candidate series, and examined what a potential long-term deal between New England and the Rutgers product would look like.
- The AFC North is the tightest division in the NFL, and any one of the Bengals, Browns, Ravens, and Steelers could be viewed as a viable favorite to finish in first place. Luke Adams asked which club was likely to take the top spot, and the voting displayed just how close the race is. Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati all received between 26% and 28% of the vote, with Baltimore garnering 20%.
- We’ll surely see some coaching changes when the season comes to a close, and with that in mind, Rob DiRe wondered which current coordinator is poised to take on a head coaching role. Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles finished first in the poll at 27%. Thanks for voting!
Week In Review: 11/9/14 – 11/16/14
The headlines from the past week at PFR:
Key News:
- The NFLPA filed a grievance asking for an immediate hearing on Adrian Peterson‘s reinstatement. The hearing will be held on Monday.
- The Chiefs and defensive lineman Allen Bailey agreed to a four-year, $25MM extension.
- The Raiders signed tackle Khalif Barnes to a one-year extension that can be worth up to $2MM.
- A decision in Ray Rice‘s appeal hearing is expected by Thanksgiving.
Signed:
- 49ers – RB Alfonso Smith (link)
- Cowboys – LB Dekoda Watson (link)
- Saints -RB Brian Leonard (link) and S Jamarca Sanford (link)
Waived:
- Bears – WR Santonio Holmes (link)
- Cowboys – LB Tim Dobbins (link)
Claimed Off Waivers:
- Jaguars – WR Teddy Williams from the Bears (link)
Major Injuries:
- 49ers – S Jimmie Ward (link) and LB Patrick Willis (link)
- Bills – CB Leodis McKelvin (link)
- Browns – DT Phil Taylor (link)
- Cardinals – QB Carson Palmer (link)
- Chargers – CB Jason Verrett (link)
- Dolphins – T Branden Albert (link)
- Giants – RB Peyton Hillis (link)
- Jaguars – WR Allen Robinson (link)
- Seahawks – DT Brandon Mebane (link) and TE Zach Miller (link)
Minor Moves: Saturday
We’ll keep track of today’s minor moves here:
- Running back Cierre Wood, who signed with the Seahawks‘ practice squad earlier this week, was let go by the team today, according to Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times (via Twitter).
Earlier updates:
- With tight end Brandon Bostick ruled out for tomorrow’s game against the Eagles, the Packers have promoted Justin Perillo from their practice squad to the active roster, according to Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (via Twitter). To make room for the incoming tight end, the club has released offensive lineman Jamon Meredith.
- The Dolphins have placed cornerback Will Davis on injured reserve after he tore his ACL during Sunday’s game, the team announced on Twitter. Davis, a 2013 third-round pick, had been playing on slightly more than 20% of Miami’s defensive snaps. To fill his roster spot, the club has signed CB Jalil Brown, who spent training camp with the Dolphins.