Free Agent Market For Running Backs
Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to running backs. Let’s dive in….
Top unrestricted FAs:
- Ahmad Bradshaw (Colts)
- Justin Forsett (Ravens)
- Frank Gore (49ers)
- Roy Helu (Washington)
- Mark Ingram (Saints)
- Ryan Mathews (Chargers)
- DeMarco Murray (Cowboys)
- Stevan Ridley (Patriots)
- C.J. Spiller (Bills)
- Shane Vereen (Patriots)
While the free agent market for quarterbacks lacks a real difference-maker, that’s not the case at running back. The position may have become devalued in recent years, but the lack of impact deals in free agency last winter could largely be attributed to the lack of impact players available. If the NFL’s leading rusher (Murray) hits the open market, he’ll do very well, despite potential concerns about his 2014 workload, or about a production drop-off behind a new offensive line.
Murray isn’t the only potential starter in this group. Mathews and Ingram have been inconsistent since entering the league as first-round draft picks, but have shown plenty of promise, and should provide value if they can stay healthy. Gore and Forsett will both be on the wrong side of 30 by the end of 2015, but are coming off very impressive 2014 campaigns, and I’d bet on them having something left in the tank.
Outside of Murray, the most intriguing name on this list might be Spiller. Like Mathews and Ingram, he has been plagued by injuries in recent years, but his big-play ability makes him very appealing, especially if he comes on the cheap. I could envision Spiller approaching free agency the same way that Jeremy Maclin did a year ago, taking a one-year deal with the hopes of having a big season and landing a more sizable contract the following year.
Rounding out this top tier: Bradshaw and Ridley, who will look to return from season-ending injuries; and Helu and Vereen, who will appeal to teams looking to add a receiving threat out of the backfield.
Other unrestricted options:
- Jackie Battle (Titans)
- Andre Brown (N/A)
- Ronnie Brown (Chargers)
- Michael Bush (N/A)
- Jonathan Dwyer (Cardinals)
- Felix Jones (N/A)
- Darren McFadden (Raiders)
- Joe McKnight (Chiefs)
- Knowshon Moreno (Dolphins)
- Chris Ogbonnaya (Giants)
- Montell Owens (Bears)
- Cedric Peerman (Bengals)
- Bilal Powell (Jets)
- Ray Rice (N/A)
- Jacquizz Rodgers (Falcons)
- Alfonso Smith (49ers)
- Antone Smith (Falcons)
- Phillip Tanner (49ers)
- Ben Tate (Steelers)
- Daniel Thomas (Dolphins)
- Leon Washington (Titans)
Most of the notable names on this list have huge question marks hovering over them as they prepare to enter the open market. McFadden has averaged 3.4 yards per carry or less for three consecutive seasons; Moreno is coming off elbow and ACL injuries that ended his year prematurely; Tate played for three different teams in 2014 and didn’t do much to impress at any of those three stops; and Rice’s production appeared to be on the decline even before he lost a season dealing with the aftermath of his domestic violence incident.
Are there worthwhile backups and change-of-pace options among this group? Sure. McKnight and Antone Smith are a couple of home-run hitters who could shine for the right team, and Powell has shown some potential. There are also several veterans on this list who could contribute on special teams, either in kick coverage or in the return game, which will give them a little more value than the more one-dimensional backs.
Still, given the going rate for running backs these days, many of these players will likely sign minimum-salary contracts with modest guarantees for the 2015 season, if they land with a team at all.
Restricted FAs:
- Matt Asiata (Vikings)
- Travaris Cadet (Saints)
- Lance Dunbar (Cowboys)
- LaMichael James (Dolphins)
- Chris Polk (Eagles)
- Bobby Rainey (Buccaneers)
- Kory Sheets (Raiders)
- Jordan Todman (Jaguars)
In many cases, these young backs are insurance policies for veteran starters, and while they may not be as cheap as restricted free agents as they were during their first three seasons, their respective teams should have interest in bringing them back.
I anticipate that players like Cadet, Polk, and Dunbar, who have spent all three seasons with their current teams, will be good candidates for the low-end restricted free agent tender. Rainey and Todman should also receive tenders, and may be the backs in this group most likely to draw interest from rival suitors. Neither player figures to head into 2015 as the top running back on his team’s depth chart, but they’ve both been productive in their limited opportunities.
Asiata is perhaps the most recognizable name here, if only because his nine touchdowns in 2014 made him a popular – if unreliable – fantasy football commodity. The 27-year-old has only averaged 3.5 yards per carry in over 200 career attempts, and is older than most of the other players on this list. But with Adrian Peterson a good bet to be traded or released by the Vikings, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Minnesota bring back Asiata.
Previously:
AFC West Notes: Manning, Coleman, Raiders
Our latest look at the AFC West touches on three of the four teams in the division. Let’s dive in….
- While Peyton Manning seems set to eventually announce his intent to return to the Broncos for the 2015 season, the team will need to make a decision of its own on the veteran quarterback. As Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link) explains, Denver could fail Manning on his physical and opt not to bring him back, reducing his cap hit by $16.5MM. Still, despite Manning’s huge cap hit and his potential injury risk, I’d be pretty shocked if the Broncos decided to go in another direction if the future Hall-of-Famer wants to return, and Cole concedes as much — however, he adds that he’d be surprised if Manning plays more than one final year in Denver.
- Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star profiles free-agent-to-be Kurt Coleman, who is coming off a bounce-back season. Although he only played about 36% of the Chiefs‘ defensive snaps, Coleman was productive when he saw the field, ranking 26th out of 87 qualified safeties, per Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required). According to Paylor, Coleman is expected to seek an annual salary in the $1.5-2MM range, and will favor opportunities where has a chance to compete for a starting job.
- According to new Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio, the topic of possible relocation surfaced when he met with owner Mark Davis during the interview process, and Davis assured him that he wants to keep the franchise in Oakland. “Those discussions absolutely came up and my question was ‘Are we going to stay in Oakland?’ and he said ‘My intent is to keep the team there,'” Del Rio said on the Jim Rome Show. “Look, I’m from this area, and that’s exactly what I wanted to hear. He’s trying to keep the team here and hopefully that will happen.”
- New Broncos defensive coordinator Wade Phillips confirmed that he’ll be bringing the 3-4 defense to Denver for the 2015 season, tweets Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com.
Steelers Notes: Ben, Worilds, FAs, Draft
Speaking to reporters today, Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert addressed a number of items on his team’s offseason to-do list, including contract extension talks with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. While there was some initial confusion among local reporters about Colbert’s comments about Big Ben, the team’s PR rep, Burt Lauten, tweets that the Steelers have indeed begun preliminary negotiations on a new deal with their QB. The club is confident that the two sides will work something out that locks up Roethlisberger for the next few years, according to Colbert.
That piece of info comes from Mark Kaboly of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter), and Kaboly tweeted several more highlights from Colbert’s presser, as did ESPN’s Scott Brown and Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Here are the noteworthy comments and observations from Colbert, with all links going to Twitter:
- According to Colbert, the Steelers would like to re-sign outside linebacker Jason Worilds, believing he had a good season in 2014 and that he has plenty of upside going forward. While the club doesn’t like to use the franchise tag, it hasn’t ruled out the possibility of assigning the transition tag to Worilds again this season. The cost for that tag in 2014 was about $9.75MM — it would be higher (likely around $11MM) in 2015.
- At the moment, Colbert is concerned about the depth at tight end and outside linebacker, since only Heath Miller and Jarvis Jones are under contract for 2015 at those positions.
- Defensive backs and pass rushers will be among Pittsburgh’s top priorities in free agency and the draft. The team will consider adding a starting cornerback if there is one who fits into the team’s system and cap, according to Colbert: “Sure, that’s a position that you are looking for help. Is there one who is available and signable? I don’t know yet.”
- It doesn’t sound as if Colbert would be too concerned if the Steelers don’t make major additions at cornerback and outside linebacker in free agency — he believes it’s a strong draft class for both of those spots. For now though, every position remains in play for the club’s first-round pick (No. 22 overall).
- Colbert and head coach Mike Tomlin will begin talks on Wednesday about which prospective free agents the team wants to attempt to re-sign. Ike Taylor and James Harrison are among the veteran defenders who will be up for discussion.
- The Steelers won’t have to make as many cap-clearing moves in advance of free agency as they did a year ago, per Colbert.
Seahawks GM Talks Lynch, Wilson, Future
Seahawks general manager John Schneider appeared on The Brock and Salk Show on 710 ESPN Seattle today, and while the GM was careful not to reveal much, he did discuss his two offensive stars in the interview, hinting at what their futures may entail. Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times rounded up a few of Schneider’s key quotes, so let’s check out the highlights:
- The Seahawks still aren’t sure whether or not Marshawn Lynch wants to play next season, according to Schneider. The team hopes he’ll make a decision soon, so that the front office can move forward on offseason plans, but the GM admitted that he knows Lynch’s decision “may not happen overnight.”
- If Lynch does return, he almost certainly won’t be playing on the same contract, says Schneider, which makes sense, given recent reports about possible extension talks between the Seahawks and the veteran running back. Seattle was reluctant to make any changes to Lynch’s contract last summer when he was holding out, but is more inclined to rework it now that there’s just one year left instead of two.
- Asked about a contract extension for quarterback Russell Wilson, Schneider declined to comment on specifics, but said, “Russell knows there are certain dominoes that have to fall into place…. He knows. He gets it. He wants to win for a long time.” While that’s a little cryptic, it’s a hint that Wilson is willing to structure his new deal in a way that doesn’t hamper the team’s cap flexibility. We had previously heard that negotiations on an extension for Wilson were expected to begin right after the Super Bowl, and that a new contract could make him the highest-paid QB in the NFL. Schneider confirmed that he has already started talking to the young signal-caller’s agent.
- Despite losing this year’s Super Bowl, the Seahawks “have a shot to be a championship-caliber team for a long time,” in Schneider’s view. “I just have the confidence in the coaching staff and everybody that we have upstairs that we are going to get this thing back on track,” he said.
Jets To Target Revis Over Cromartie
While Darrelle Revis is technically under contract for 2015, his $20MM base salary and $25MM cap number actually make him more likely to hit the open market than some notable prospective free agents. Players like Justin Houston and Dez Bryant don’t have contracts for 2015 yet, but their respective teams can use the franchise tag to keep them around. The franchise tag isn’t in play for the Patriots and Revis — if the team can’t come to an agreement on an extension with the cornerback and doesn’t want to pick up his pricey option, he’ll be cut.
If the Pats do release Revis, the former Jets cornerback will be a top priority on New York’s list of free agent targets. According to Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link), as much as Antonio Cromartie would like to return to the Jets, he will be a “distant second” to Revis as the team considers its free agent options at cornerback.
Of course, Cromartie could move up to that No. 1 spot on the Jets’ list of free agent corners if the Pats manage to work something out with Revis prior to March 10. There are other noteworthy cornerbacks eligible for free agency this winter, such as Byron Maxwell, Brandon Flowers, and Kareem Jackson, but none of those players looks like as ideal a fit as Cromartie for the Jets. Arizona cornerback Patrick Peterson told ESPN.com recently that all his teammate talks about is “freaking New York,” where former Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is now the head coach.
As Cole explains, Cromartie recognizes that, coming off a strong season in Arizona and having turned 30 last April, this may be his last, best shot at a big, long-term contract. So if the Jets decide to sign Revis to that sort of deal, Cromartie may turn elsewhere. If Revis returns to New England though, the Jets – armed with a ton of cap space and a need at CB – may be a perfect match for a player looking to return to New York and sign one more lucrative contract.
East Links: Giants, Murray, Eagles, Dolphins
As we heard last night, the Giants are expected to officially finalize their deal with former Calgary Stampeders offensive lineman Brett Jones at some point this week, and Jordan Raanan of NJ.com breaks down five things Giants fans should know about the CFL’s 2014 Offensive Lineman of the Year.
As of today, NFL teams can formally sign CFL players whose contracts with their 2014 teams have expired, so Jones likely won’t be the last player making the move south this week. Cornerback Delvin Breaux, wide receiver Duron Carter, and offensive lineman Ben Heenan are among the players who were released from their CFL contracts early and have already reached agreements with NFL teams.
Let’s round up a few more notes from around the league’s two East divisions….
- Lee Singer of ESPN.com lays out several reasons why the Cowboys should be careful when it comes to negotiating with free agent running back DeMarco Murray this offseason. Singer touches on the oft-repeated points related to Murray’s workload and the devaluation of the running back position, and also points out that the Cowboys have some internal candidates who could step up if they don’t re-sign Murray or bring in a veteran replacement.
- Re-signing Jeremy Maclin should be a top priority for the Eagles this winter, but coming to an agreement with the wideout may not be easy, says Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com in his preview of the club’s offseason. It may also be in Philadelphia’s best interest to bring back quarterback Mark Sanchez, in Fitzgerald’s view.
- Fitzgerald also takes a closer look at the contract extension that Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins may or may not be discussing, suggesting that – if it happens – it would be a deal that would benefit both sides.
Recap Of 2015’s Major NFL Coaching Changes
As I pointed out last summer when I examined the longest-tenured head coaches in the league, a coach’s job is rarely safe in the NFL. At the time, more than half of the league’s head coaches had been with their current teams for two years or less, and since then, seven more clubs have made changes.
And if a head coaching position is tenuous, that’s doubly true for offensive and defensive coordinators. Not only do new head coaches typically bring in their own OCs and DCs, regardless of the previous coach’s performance, but teams will often replace a coordinator on one side of the ball or the other following a disappointing season by his unit. Over half the teams in the NFL will make a change at either OC or DC (or both) this winter.
We’ve been following all the latest updates on head coaches and offensive and defensive coordinators with our trackers, but as hiring season winds down, it’s worth rounding up all the changes in one spot. So here are 2015’s new head coaches, offensive coordinators, and defensive coordinators, along with 2014’s HCs, OCs, and DCs that have since found jobs elsewhere….
Head coaches:
- Atlanta Falcons: Hired Dan Quinn to replace Mike Smith.
- Buffalo Bills: Hired Rex Ryan to replace Doug Marrone (opted out).
- Chicago Bears: Hired John Fox to replace Marc Trestman.
- Denver Broncos: Hired Gary Kubiak to replace John Fox.
- New York Jets: Hired Todd Bowles to replace Rex Ryan.
- Oakland Raiders: Hired Jack Del Rio to replace Tony Sparano.
- San Francisco 49ers: Promoted Jim Tomsula to replace Jim Harbaugh.
Offensive coordinators:
- Atlanta Falcons: Hired Kyle Shanahan to replace Dirk Koetter
- Baltimore Ravens: Hired Marc Trestman to replace Gary Kubiak.
- Buffalo Bills: Hired Greg Roman to replace Nathaniel Hackett.
- Chicago Bears: Hired Adam Gase to replace Aaron Kromer.
- Cleveland Browns: Hired John DeFilippo to replace Kyle Shanahan.
- Dallas Cowboys: Promoted Scott Linehan to replace Bill Callahan
- Linehan called plays in 2014, but Callahan still held the formal OC title.
- Denver Broncos: Hired Rick Dennison to replace Adam Gase.
- Green Bay Packers: Promoted Edgar Bennett to replace Tom Clements
- While Bennett gets the OC title, Clements will assume Mike McCarthy‘s play-calling duties.
- Houston Texans: Promoted George Godsey to vacant role.
- Godsey and head coach Bill O’Brien called plays in 2014.
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Hired Greg Olson to replace Jedd Fisch.
- New York Jets: Hired Chan Gailey to replace Marty Mornhinweg.
- Oakland Raiders: Hired Bill Musgrave to replace Greg Olson.
- San Francisco 49ers: Promoted Geep Chryst to replace Greg Roman.
- St. Louis Rams: Promoted Frank Cignetti to replace Brian Schottenheimer
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Hired Dirk Koetter to replace Marcus Arroyo.
- Arroyo had been acting as interim OC, replacing Jeff Tedford.
Defensive coordinators:
- Arizona Cardinals: Promoted James Bettcher to replace Todd Bowles.
- Atlanta Falcons: Hired Richard Smith to replace Mike Nolan.
- Buffalo Bills: Hired Dennis Thurman to replace Jim Schwartz.
- Chicago Bears: Hired Vic Fangio to replace Mel Tucker.
- Denver Broncos: Hired Wade Phillips to replace Jack Del Rio.
- New York Giants: Hired Steve Spagnuolo to replace Perry Fewell.
- New York Jets: Hired Kacy Rodgers to replace Dennis Thurman.
- Oakland Raiders: Hired Ken Norton Jr. to replace Jason Tarver.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: Promoted Keith Butler to replace Dick LeBeau.
- San Francisco 49ers: Promoted Eric Mangini to replace Vic Fangio.
- Seattle Seahawks: Promoted Kris Richard to replace Dan Quinn.
- Washington: Hired Joe Barry to replace Jim Haslett.
Other 2014 head coaches with new jobs:
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Hired former Bills HC Doug Marrone as assistant head coach and offensive line coach.
- New Orleans Saints: Hired former Raiders HC Dennis Allen as senior defensive assistant.
- San Francisco 49ers: Hired former Raiders interim HC Tony Sparano as tight ends coach.
- University of Michigan: Hired former 49ers HC Jim Harbaugh as head coach.
Other 2014 OCs, DCs with new jobs:
- Baltimore Ravens: Hired former Jets OC Marty Mornhinweg as quarterbacks coach.
- Buffalo Bills: Hired former Bears OC Aaron Kromer as offensive line coach.
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Hired former Bills OC Nathaniel Hackett as quarterbacks coach.
- San Diego Chargers: Hired former Falcons DC Mike Nolan as linebackers coach.
- San Francisco 49ers: Hired former Raiders DC Jason Tarver as senior defensive assistant and outside linebackers coach.
- Tennessee Titans: Hired former Steelers DC Dick LeBeau as assistant head coach.
- University of Alabama: Hired former Bears DC Mel Tucker as defensive backs coach.
- University of Georgia: Hired former Rams OC Brian Schottenheimer as offensive coordinator.
- University of Michigan: Hired former Jaguars OC Jedd Fisch as passing game coordinator, quarterbacks coach, and wide receivers coach.
- Washington: Hired former Cowboys OC Bill Callahan as offensive line coach.
- Washington: Hired former Giants DC Perry Fewell as defensive backs coach.
NFC West Notes: Los Angeles, 49ers, Seahawks
With the Rams seemingly inching closer to Los Angeles, the NFL issued a memo to all 32 teams today to remind them that the league will make the major decisions regarding relocation, not the individual clubs, as Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times writes. In the memo, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell announced the forming of the “Committee on Los Angeles Opportunities,” consisting of owners Clark Hunt (Chiefs), Robert Kraft (Patriots), John Mara (Giants), Bob McNair (Texans), Jerry Richardson (Panthers), and Art Rooney (Steelers).
The newly formed committee will “evaluate the various stadium options available in Los Angeles, oversee the application of the relocation guidelines in the event that one or more clubs seek to move to Los Angeles, ensure proper coordination with other standing committees … and confirm that all steps taken in Los Angeles are consistent with the Constitution and Bylaws and NFL policies.”
Meanwhile, as Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk writes, any effort by 31 different businesses to tell one business how (and where) it will do business becomes a potential violation of the antitrust laws. Whether Stan Kroenke is willing to take things to court, however, is a different story. More from the NFC West..
- The 49ers formally announced Jim Tomsula‘s full coaching staff today, including previously reported names like Geep Chryst (offensive coordinator), Tony Sparano (tight ends coach), Eric Mangini (defensive coordinator), and Jason Tarver (senior defensive assistant and linebackers coach).
- At least one 49ers player isn’t enthusiastic about the new staff in San Francisco. According to Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link), a Niner told him that he thinks the coaching changes will hurt the team: “Everyone will see soon enough.”
- Although Tommy John surgery was originally viewed as likely for Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman, he won’t have to undergo the procedure after all, reports Mike Garafolo of Fox Sports (Twitter links). Since Sherman’s injured elbow is feeling better this week, the team intends to opt for rehab and monitor the situation, with the hope of avoiding surgery.
- According to Peter Ariz of CanesInSight.com (via Twitter), another one of Pete Carroll‘s sons will be joining the Seahawks head coach in Seattle. Ariz reports that University of Miami wide receivers coach Brennan Carroll will take a position on the Seahawks’ staff, which already includes assistant WRs coach Nate Carroll.
- Meanwhile, another Hurricanes assistant may be headed to the Seahawks as well, per Thayer Evans of SI.com, who tweets that linebackers coach Michael Barrow is expected to accept the same position in Seattle. The team’s former linebackers coach, Ken Norton Jr., accepted the defensive coordinator job in Oakland last week.
Zach Links contributed to this post.
Latest On Greg Hardy
The domestic violence charges against Panthers defensive end Greg Hardy were dismissed in court earlier today, but for now, that doesn’t do anything to change his NFL status. The league confirmed that Hardy remains on the commissioner’s exempt list as the NFL completes its own review of his case, and the Panthers said this afternoon (via Twitter) that they’re essentially following the league’s lead.
“We are aware of the decision by the district attorney’s office to dismiss charges against Greg Hardy,” the team’s statement read. “Greg remains on the commissioner’s exempt list and the NFL has advised us to allow it to complete its review under the personal conduct policy. There is no change in his status at this time.”
Here are the latest updates and rumors on Hardy, in the wake of the conclusion of his legal case:
- Even though the charges against Hardy were dismissed, Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer tweets that people around the Panthers he has spoken to don’t expect the defensive end to return to the team for next season.
- As we saw with Adrian Peterson, the league won’t consider Hardy’s paid leave in 2014 a form of punishment, writes Mike Garafolo of Fox Sports. Garafolo believes that the NFL could still come down hard on the standout pass rusher — even though Nicole Holder disappeared prior to this case, the league could still point to the previous guilty verdict, Holder’s previous testimony, and an apparent civil settlement between Hardy and Holder as the basis for discipline. In fact, Garafolo wouldn’t be surprised if Hardy receives a suspension of more than six games, given some of the extenuating circumstances in the case, such as the weapons allegedly involved.
- Jason Cole of Bleacher Report, on the other hand, suggests that the NFL is “extremely unlikely” to punish Hardy further, though he thinks the league will find out as much as it can about Hardy’s alleged settlement with Holder. Cole is bullish on Hardy’s prospects in free agency, indicating that there will be five to eight teams interested if the 26-year-old reaches the open market, and predicting that he could make $15-20MM in guaranteed money. Cole adds that Panthers head coach Ron Rivera still has interest in bringing back Hardy.
- While Rivera may try to pitch the front office and ownership on the idea of re-signing Hardy, don’t expect owner Jerry Richardson to seriously entertain the idea, says David Newton of ESPN.com.
Minor Moves: Monday
We’ll round up today’s minor transactions from around the NFL in the space below, with any additional moves added to the top of the list throughout the day. Here’s the latest:
- The Saints have re-signed exclusive rights free agent Senio Kelemete to a one-year, minimum-salary contract for 2015, as first reported by Evan Woodbery of the Times-Picayune. Kelemete, who only saw six offensive snaps all year as a reserve at center and guard for New Orleans, confirmed the agreement with an announcement on Twitter.
- After announcing their first round of reserve/futures signings last week, the Seahawks locked up several more players to new deals today, per Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times. Condotta tweets that the club has officially signed wide receiver Kevin Smith, quarterback R.J. Archer, guard C.J. Davis, long snapper Luke Ingram, linebacker Brendan Kelly, defensive end Will Pericak, and center Jared Wheeler, whose agreement was previously reported.