Extension Candidate: Michael Thomas
Saints star receiver Michael Thomas has been sensational since New Orleans selected him in the second round of the 2016 draft. Yes, he has benefited from having a Hall of Fame quarterback throwing him the football, but his hands, route-running, and athleticism suggest that he would excel in almost any offensive attack.
Through the first three years of his career, Thomas is averaging a whopping 107 receptions per season to go along with 1,262 yards and nearly eight touchdowns. His yardage and reception totals have improved each year, and he finished the 2018 campaign with 125 catches (on 147 targets) for 1,405 yards and nine scores. The advanced metrics value his work as well, as Pro Football Focus rated him as the No. 2 receiver in the league last season, and among receivers with at least 50 targets, he ranked third in the league in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, which is Football Outsiders’ receiving metric.
And, now that he has completed the third year of his rookie contract, he is eligible for a long-term extension. He is due a comically low $1.148MM salary on the final year of his rookie pact in 2019, but both player and team would like to get a new contract hammered out this offseason. To that end, Thomas recently signed with agent Andrew Kessler of Athletes First after cutting ties with David Mulugheta in November.
Thomas and Mulugheta reportedly had a “difference of opinions,” and Thomas has now changed agents twice in his three professional seasons. It is unclear what exactly Thomas and Mulugheta did not see eye-to-eye on, but Thomas is set to cash in with his new representation.
The former Buckeye turns 26 next month, and he may reset the top of the receiver market. Presently, Odell Beckham Jr. is the top earner among wide receivers, as his recent extension is worth $90MM overall, has an $18MM average annual value, and includes $40.959MM in total guarantees. Antonio Brown ranks second in AAV with a $17MM/year mark (though he wants to redo his deal), and Mike Evans‘s contract has the second-highest total value ($82.5MM).
There was some chatter that OBJ could be the first receiver to hit the $100MM mark, and he may have gotten there if not for some injury and off-field issues. Thomas, who does not have any notable health or character red flags, could be the guy. It would not be surprising to see him land a five-year, $100MM pact with a $40MM+ guarantee.
Of course, the Saints (as always) do not have much cap space, so they will need to be careful about how they structure Thomas’ extension, assuming the two sides are able to come together on a deal. The guess here is that New Orleans will not risk letting Thomas get away and will hand him a record-setting accord before they even have to think about tagging him.
NFC Notes: Manning, Taylor, Falcons
Paul Schwartz of the New York Post examines some of the difficult decisions facing the Giants as the 2019 draft approaches. The Scouting Combine gets underway this week, and when New York GM Dave Gettleman speaks on Wednesday — which will mark the first time he speaks publicly since the end of the 2018 season — Schwartz expects he will formally commit to Eli Manning as the team’s starter for 2019.
After that, though, the picture gets a little fuzzy. Gettleman would of course love to find Manning’s successor in the draft, but he eschewed high-end collegiate QB talent last year, and the quarterbacks in this year’s class are not as heralded. Gettleman has long maintained that he will not grade quarterbacks on a curve just because there is pressure on him to pick one, and the Giants have plenty of other needs to fill, so they will be one of the more interesting teams to follow in the next couple of months.
Let’s take a look at a few more NFC items:
- In a separate piece, Schwartz looks at three players the Giants will be monitoring closely at the Combine, all of which fill one of their above-referenced needs: QB Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State), LB Devin White (LSU), and OT Jonah Williams (Alabama). Ryan Dunleavy of NJ.com says the team’s top priority this offseason should be adding defensive playmakers, and he takes a deeper dive into some of the collegiate prospects that Big Blue should thoroughly examine.
- The 49ers will certainly add a receiver or two to the top of their depth chart this offseason (like Antonio Brown, for instance), but there should still be plenty of opportunities for third-year player Trent Taylor. Taylor underwent back surgery in June, and while he ended up playing 14 games last year — compiling 26 catches for 215 yards and a touchdown — he says he never felt fully healthy. But as Jennifer Lee Chan of NBC Sports Bay Area writes, Taylor believes he is finally back to normal, and he thinks a regular offseason of work will prime him for a breakout campaign. He is also looking forward to working with his new position coach, Wes Welker, who certainly knows a thing or two about making hay as an undersized wideout.
- The Falcons recently re-signed linebacker Bruce Carter and defensive end Steven Means to one-year pacts, and D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution passes along the contract details. Carter will earn $930K (making his contract a veteran minimum deal), while Means will earn $895K. The minimum salary for a player with Means’ service time is $805K, but Atlanta gave him a $90K signing bonus. He will carry a $735K cap hit, while Carter’s cap number is $645K.
- It appears that Cardinals pass rusher Markus Golden will be allowed to hit the open market next month.
Patriots Notes: Kraft, Flowers, Tate
Patriots owner Robert Kraft will likely not face many legal repercussions from his prostitution charges, according to a Florida criminal defense attorney (via Ben Volin of the Boston Globe). Kraft will probably be required to pay a several hundred dollar fine and attend counseling of some sort, at which point the charges may be dropped.
But the consequences from an NFL standpoint are likely to be much more severe. Volin believes commissioner Roger Goodell should “come down hard on Kraft” and impose at least a six-game suspension and a hefty fine (the maximum fine is $500K). Kraft is obviously one of the most prominent and powerful owners in the league, but he may be relieved of some of his duties (he is a part of five major ownership committees). He was supposed to guide the league through a potential 2021 lockout and lead negotiations with television networks when those contracts expire in 2022, but that is all in question now.
Volin still believes Kraft will be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but his induction will now be delayed, and the 77-year-old may not be around to enjoy his enshrinement when it does happen (Volin says Kraft was likely to get the HOF nod in a year or two). And, while Kraft will almost certainly not be forced to sell the club or hand it off to his son, Jonathan, this incident will be a permanent blot on his reputation.
Now let’s take a quick look at a few on-field notes from Foxborough:
- Patriots defensive end Trey Flowers will be a hot commodity if he hits the open market, but Jim McBride of the Boston Globe says locking him up to a long-term deal is high on New England’s list of priorities. The Pats are unlikely to use the franchise tag on Flowers, and they are unlikely to keep him if it takes an Olivier Vernon-esque deal to do so (five years, $85MM). However, McBride believes Flowers will ultimately return to New England on a multi-year contract, even if he tests the free agent market first.
- In the same piece linked above, McBride looks at the other Patriots eligible for free agency and their chances of returning to the club. For instance, he believes specialists Stephen Gostkowski and Ryan Allen will certainly be back, while Eric Rowe and Danny Shelton are more likely to find homes elsewhere.
- Assuming the Patriots don’t trade out of the first round, Doug Kyed of NESN.com sees tight ends Noah Fant (Iowa) and Irv Smith Jr. (Alabama) and DB Taylor Rapp (Washington) as potential fits.
- Golden Tate would be a good fit in the Patriots’ offense, but Kyed does not believe the Pats will be willing to meet Tate’s asking price.
- Brothers Devin McCourty and Jason McCourty have announced that they will continue their careers in 2019 after some retirement speculation prior to the Super Bowl. Devin is still under contract with the Patriots, but Jason is eligible for free agency.
Markus Golden Likely To Hit Open Market
Just yesterday, we heard that the Cardinals and impending free agent Markus Golden have engaged in “periodic” contract talks. The implication was that Arizona could perhaps retain the talented pass rusher on a team-friendly deal, but it appears that Golden will not be under contract when free agency opens on March 13.
Per Matt Verderame of FanSided, Golden is expected to hit the open market (Twitter link). And given the premium that the league places on pass rushers, it is logical for him to do so, especially since Arizona does not appear willing to pony up a lot of cash to keep him. Verderame suggests that the Cardinals, who already have $19.5MM of their 2019 cap devoted to fellow edge defender Chandler Jones and who like the pass rushing talent available in this year’s draft, may not have a Golden re-up high on their list of priorities.
Golden has been limited by a torn ACL suffered in October 2017, which ended his 2017 campaign prematurely and forced him to miss the first several games of the 2018 season. He did end up playing in (and starting) 11 contests for the Cardinals last year, but he was clearly not the same explosive force he was in 2016, when he compiled 12.5 sacks and appeared on the verge of stardom.
Nonetheless, he will be just 28 next month — on March 13, coincidentally — and has at least some experience in both a 4-3 and 3-4 scheme. The upside is clearly there, and once some of the top pass rushers who are eligible for free agency are taken off the market via the franchise tag, Golden will begin to look more attractive.
Golden claims that he is fully healthy, and he believes the fact that he has been able to work out normally this offseason instead of rehabbing an injury will help him return to his 2016 level of performance.
Latest On Retired DE Armonty Bryant
Here at PFR, we generally focus on player and personnel movement and rumors and rarely discuss a retired player, unless there is some thought that the player in question could return to the field. Although retired defensive end Armonty Bryant is never going to play NFL football again, his story should nonetheless be heard.
Our last post concerning Bryant was published on July 18, 2018, and it dealt with Bryant’s retirement announcement. At the time, we knew that Bryant was suffering from end stage renal failure, but little else.
Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com provides an excellent piece — which is certainly worth a full read — on what Bryant’s life has become since he was suddenly and unexpectedly forced to retire. Shortly after signing with the Raiders last April, team doctors called Bryant to tell him that he had high potassium levels and that he should go to the emergency room immediately. Upon arriving at the hospital, his blood pressure was through the roof, and his blood pressure medication — which was first prescribed for him when he played for the Lions — was changed.
Bryant quickly met with a kidney specialist who not only forbade him from playing football, but who also told him that he needed to begin dialysis immediately. Today, Bryant remains on dialysis and can only leave his home for short stretches of time because he must run dialysis every four hours to retain what kidney function he still has. He is still awaiting a kidney transplant, and though Rothstein does not indicate how much longer Bryant is expected to live if that does not happen, the outlook without a transplant is obviously grim.
Bryant believes football, which he played since he was in third grade, may have accelerated his kidney disease, but there is no scientific proof of that. His diagnosis, focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), has no known cause and no known cure.
Luckily, if he is able to get a transplant, his life stands a good chance of mostly returning to normal. But, as with all donor candidates, that remains a very big “if.”
The 2013 seventh-round pick suited up for the Browns and Lions during his four seasons in the league and finished his career with 11.5 sacks, including a career-high 5.5 sacks in 2015, his last year in Cleveland. We here at PFR wish him all the best.
Jets To Decline Kevin Pierre-Louis’ Option
The Jets will not exercise Kevin Pierre-Louis‘ 2019 option, per Brian Costello of the New York Post (via Twitter). The move will create another $2MM in cap space for Gang Green, which is already near the top of the league in that department, with over $100MM to spend in free agency this year.
The 27-year-old Pierre-Louis is a linebacker by trade but has seen his most action as a special teams contributor. In the games in which he suited up in 2018, he appeared in the majority of the Jets’ special teams snaps. He saw a little more burn on the defense towards the end of the season and recorded his only sack on December 12.
He was suspended for Week 1 of the 2018 campaign as a result of a January 2018 arrest that resulted in various marijuana drug and traffic charges. Those charges were dropped several months later, contingent on the completion of one year of probation.
He was something of a sought-after commodity last offseason, having visited multiple teams before agreeing to a two-year, $5.25MM deal with the Jets. His special teams value will almost certainly result in another contract this time around.
Pierre-Louis was drafted by the Seahawks in the fourth round of the 2014 draft and parlayed a strong 2017 season with the Chiefs into his deal with New York. He is the third player whose 2019 option was declined by the Jets today, joining Terrence Brooks and Mike Pennel.
Minor NFL Transactions: 2/19/19
Here are today’s minor moves:
Kansas City Chiefs
- Signed: OL Justin Senior
New York Giants
- Re-signed: TE Scott Simonson
Emmanuel Sanders Won’t Consider Pay Cut
Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders is set to enter the last year of his three-year, $33MM pact with the Broncos, and he is due a $10.25MM salary in 2019. He will be 32 next month, and he tore his Achilles in December, but he has no intentions of reworking his deal, which carries a nearly $13MM cap hit next season.
104.3 The Fan asked its Twitter followers today if the Broncos should approach Sanders about a restructure, and Sanders tweeted, “it ain’t happening..no way Jose.” Troy Renck of Denver 7 ABC sides with Sanders, saying that there is no need for him to rework his deal, and that it would be foolish for the Broncos to trade for Joe Flacco and then let a veteran receiver of Sanders’ caliber go (Twitter link).
Of course, there is a difference between a restructure and a pay cut. Sanders clearly interpreted the hypothetical question as “should the Broncos approach Sanders about a pay cut,” and if that’s the case, then his stance (and Renck’s) is certainly understandable. But perhaps the two sides could come together on an extension that would buy Denver a little cap relief and would result in a little more guaranteed money in Sanders’ pocket (though the fact that he is rehabbing from his Achilles tear could mean, as Charean Williams of Pro Football Talk observes, that the Broncos will not be addressing Sanders’ future for at least the next few months).
The Broncos could cut Sanders and save his full $10.25MM salary against the cap while eating his bonus proration of $2,687,500. But they are not really pressed for cap space even after they absorb Flacco’s contract, especially since they are likely to cut or trade Case Keenum and save $11MM as a result. It seems more likely that they will simply wait to see how Sanders’ recovery progresses and either approach him about an extension this summer or else let him play out the final year of his deal and see what happens in 2020.
In any event, we should have another update in the next couple of weeks. Mike Klis of 9News points out that, of Sanders’ $10.25MM salary, $1.5MM becomes fully-guaranteed if the Broncos exercise his 2019 option, which they must do by March 12 (Twitter link). Klis presently expects the Broncos to pick up the option, though he concedes it is difficult to predict what GM John Elway will do.
In his 12 games last season, Sanders hauled in 71 catches for 868 yards and four TDs. He also rushed for a touchdown and threw a touchdown pass.
Rob Gronkowski Decision Expected In Next Several Weeks
One of the biggest storylines of the offseason is whether Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski will call it a career or if he will rejoin the defending champs for at least one more season. He said in the aftermath of Super Bowl LIII that he would make his decision in a week or two, but we are now more than two weeks removed from the Super Bowl, and we still don’t have an answer.
Agent Drew Rosenhaus, though, said Gronk will decide soon. Rosenhaus said, “He’s thinking it through, he’s giving it a lot of thought… I imagine a decision will happen in the next couple of weeks” (Twitter link via ESPN NFL Insider Field Yates).
Of course, it makes sense for anyone to take their time when making a decision of this magnitude, but the delay could also suggest that recent events have changed Gronkowski’s thought process. A report back in January suggested that he was leaning towards retirement, which came on the heels of a separate report at the end of December indicating that Gronk had grown tired of the “Patriot Way.”
But winning cures a lot of ills, and there figures to be much less drama in Foxborough in 2019 than there was last year. Just two days ago, we heard that Gronkowski is spending plenty of time at Gillette Stadium these days, and that his feeling towards the Pats are very positive at the moment. Plus, quarterback Tom Brady will be back in 2019, and Gronkowski was able to finish the 2018 campaign healthy, both of which are primary factors in his decision.
Vikings’ Anthony Barr Likely To Hit Free Agency
Anthony Barr has made the Pro Bowl in each of the past four seasons and has been a stalwart on the Vikings’ defense since Minnesota drafted him with the 9th overall pick of the 2014 draft, but it appears the two sides are headed for a parting of the ways. Per Andrew Krammer of the Star Tribune, there is no indication that Barr and the Vikings have recently engaged in contract talks, and given the cost of the franchise tag for linebackers ($15.9MM), Minnesota is highly unlikely to tag him.
As such, Barr is set to hit the open market, and he will surely get paid handsomely. He was a 3-4 outside linebacker at UCLA –racking up 23.5 sacks in his last two years with the Bruins — and though he converted to a 4-3 ‘backer when he came to the Vikings, his pass rushing abilities have not left him. As Krammer observes, Barr has twice been rated Pro Football Focus’ most efficient blitzing linebacker, including the 2018 season, though he has been one of the league’s top 10 most frequent blitzers just once in his first five years in the league.
He could therefore hold significant appeal to a number of clubs. He has proven himself as a quality 4-3 stack linebacker, but his pedigree and upside as a pass rusher will make him almost universally attractive. His sack numbers are not eye-catching, but that is a function not only of the position he plays, but the discipline with which head coach Mike Zimmer‘s unit operates. Barr said, “If you watch a lot of teams — the Panthers, Miami, Oakland, Cincinnati — a lot of linebackers are going under blocks and not playing their gaps. Either they get gashed or they make a big splash play. We play sound across the board. I think it also hurts stat numbers because we’re going to hold our gap and force the ball to go elsewhere.”
The Vikings’ defense fared well when Barr was sidelined for several games last season, and with much of their veteran defensive core already under contract for the long-term, it seems unlikely they will bring Barr back unless they get him on a team-friendly deal. Though they approached Barr about an extension last summer, it does not appear they ever came close to an agreement. Per Krammer, Barr said that Minnesota’s offers were not what he expected.
He should have more luck when free agency opens on March 13.