AFC East Notes: Dolphins, Alonso, Jets, Davis
Can the Patriots be stopped by any team in the AFC this year? Dolphins defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh certainly thinks so.
“I think the Patriots are definitely beatable,” Suh told ESPN (video link). “It’s just a matter of playing a good game, almost a perfect game in a lot of ways because they’ve got great coaching and obviously great players and talent on their side of the ball. So you’ve got to be going on all cylinders. Without question, I have a ton of respect for them, but without question, they’re definitely beatable as everybody is in the league.”
While you mull the mortality of the Patriots, here’s a look at the AFC East:
- The Dolphins have yet to tell any of their linebackers where they will be playing in 2017, but one team source tells Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald that the most logical option is having Lawrence Timmons in the middle with Kiko Alonso at weakside. In the past, Alonso has been reluctant to move from inside linebacker, but it appears that he is going to have to make the shift in order to suit the offseason addition of Timmons. Alonso indicated back in March that he would be a good sport about switching positions for the former Steeler. He was probably a bit more amenable to the idea after inking a three-year extension worth up to $29MM.
- If Demario Davis is going to be a contributor for the Jets in his second go ’round with the team, he’ll have to do better in coverage, Brian Costello of the New York Post writes. Davis was always a good run stuffer for Gang Green, but teams routinely targeted him on wheel routes and gained yards at his expense. The Jets reacquired Davis in a June swap that saw Calvin Pryor go to the Browns. Many thought that Davis would be dropped from the roster, but he should be able to stick around after agreeing to a pay cut. The release of David Harris also created a need for the team at middle linebacker.
- Former Dolphins tight end Evan Rodriguez is hoping that his performance in the American Flag Football League last week will help him catch the attention of NFL teams. “I feel like this gave people a different view of me,” the former second round pick told Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times. “I know I was a big guy that coaches wanted to use as a physical guy with my size, and this flag football league let me take advantage of my size and show my athleticism for a big guy.” Rodriguez, who was drafted by the Bears in 2012, also had stints with the Bills and Buccaneers. He has not seen live NFL action since 2014 and he has not been on a roster since the Bucs cut him prior to the 2015 season.
Only 10 NFL Draft Picks Remain Unsigned
Rookie contracts are no longer a negotiation nightmare for general managers, but some deals take longer than others to come together. When PFR’s Dallas Robinson checked in on unsigned rookies in June, there were a dozen stragglers. Weeks later, we still have ten players without deals, including some very notable names: 
First Round
- 1-2: Mitch Trubisky, QB (Bears)
- 1-3: Solomon Thomas, DL (49ers)
- 1-5: Corey Davis, WR (Titans)
- 1-6: Jamal Adams, S (Jets)
- 1-10: Patrick Mahomes, QB (Chiefs)
- 1-24: Gareon Conley, CB (Raiders)
- 1-25: Jabrill Peppers, S (Browns)
Second Round
- 2-56: Obi Melifonwu, S (Raiders)
Third Round
- 3-88: Eddie Vanderdoes, DT (Raiders)
- 3-93: Montravius Adams, DT (Packers)
Nearly 22% of this year’s first round picks are still without contracts and the likely culprit is offset language. No one wants to be this year’s Joey Bosa, but teams don’t want to risk having a holdout situation in training camp either. For what it’s worth, Trubisky says that he’ll be practicing with the Bears no matter what. The 49ers’ situation with Thomas, on the other hand, has the potential to get complicated. The Niners already made a big concession when they agreed to give No. 31 overall pick Reuben Foster guarantees that extend into his fourth year, so they could have a hard time standing their ground with Thomas on something like offset language. Last year, it took the Niners and Joshua Garnett until July 29th to agree to terms. They might have to play the waiting game again with this year’s first round pick from Stanford.
Besides the glut of unsigned first round picks, the list also has one other common thread: the Raiders. Although the Raiders have agreed to terms with six of their draft picks, their top three rookies remain unsigned. The extended talks for Conley, Mlifonwu, and Vanderdoes could be a sign that the Raiders are holding firm on the same issue, but they could also be for entirely different reasons.
In the case of Conley, his legal situation could be holding things up, in addition to the typical offset language issues with first round picks. Vanderdoes is only one of two third round stragglers this year, but as we saw in 2016, negotiations with third rounders can be complicated. That’s because base salaries are usually maxed out for all first- and second-round picks while picks in rounds 4-7 receive the minimum. However, there is no set number for third round picks, which means that there is extra wiggle room.
Photo via Pro Football Rumors on Instagram.
Offset Language
Since the NFL’s latest Collective Bargaining Agreement has made rookie contracts fairly regimented, negotiations between teams and draft picks have become smoother than ever, with few – if any – players expected to be unsigned by the time training camp gets underway. Still, ten players have yet to ink their rookie deals, including several first-rounders:
- 1-2: Mitch Trubisky, QB (Bears)
- 1-3: Solomon Thomas, DL (49ers)
- 1-5: Corey Davis, WR (Titans)
- 1-6: Jamal Adams, S (Jets)
- 1-10: Patrick Mahomes, QB (Chiefs)
- 1-24: Gareon Conley, CB (Raiders)
- 1-25: Jabrill Peppers, S (Browns)
Although we don’t know the inner workings of each negotiation, one factor that continues to play a role in contracts for first-round picks relates to offset language. Over the last several years, only a handful of players in each year have managed to avoid having offsets language written into their deals. In 2015, Marcus Mariota‘s camp haggled with the Titans until the two sides finally reached an accord with partial offset language, a compromise that was not consummated until late July. Last year, Joey Bosa’s holdout dominated headlines until the linebacker inked his deal on August 29th. In most cases, a lack of offsets for a player simply relies on which team drafted him — clubs like the Rams and Jaguars traditionally haven’t pushed to include offsets in contracts for their top picks, even in an era where most other teams around the league do.
Offset language relates to what happens to a player’s salary if he’s cut during the first four years of his career, while he’s still playing on his rookie contract. For the top 15 to 20 picks in the draft, those four-year salaries will be fully guaranteed, even if a player is waived at some point during those four seasons. For example, if a player has $4MM in guaranteed money remaining on his contract and is cut, he’ll still be owed that $4MM.
However, if a team has written offset language into the contract, that club can save some money if and when the player signs with a new team. For example, if that player who had $4MM in guaranteed money left on his contract signs with a new club on a $1MM deal, his old team would only be on the hook for $3MM, with the new team making up the difference. If there’s no offset language on that first deal, the old team would continue to be on the hook for the full $4MM, and the player would simply earn an additional $1MM from his new club.
Although the negotiation of offset language might potentially delay a rookie’s signing, the offsets rarely come into play, since few top picks flame out badly enough that they’re released during their first four seasons. And even in those rare instances, if a player has performed poorly enough to be cut in his first few years, he likely won’t sign a lucrative deal elsewhere, so offset language wouldn’t help his old club recover more than perhaps the league minimum.
Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry, modified from an earlier post by PFR editor emeritus Luke Adams. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from OverTheCap.com was used in the creation of this post.
Poll: Will The Bucs Make The Playoffs?
In 2007, the Jon Gruden-led Buccaneers won the NFC South with a 9-7 record, but quarterback Jeff Garcia could not get his squad past the Giants in the Wild Card round. In the nine years since, the Bucs have not returned to the postseason. Yup, its been a while since the Bucs have been in the playoffs. 
This year, the Buccaneers are hoping to snap their skid after making a handful of key roster upgrades. The biggest splash was the addition of DeSean Jackson and the speedy veteran should give Jameis Winston a steady deep ball threat to work with. Last year, Winston pretty much had to make do without Vincent Jackson, so the presence of DJax should represent a major boost for the offense. They say speed doesn’t age well, but the 30-year-old hasn’t really lost a step. In 2016, Jackson led the NFL in yards per reception for the second time in his career as he totaled 56 receptions for 1,005 yards and four touchdowns.
Cameron Brate was a revelation for the Bucs last season. This season, opposing defenses may find themselves in double trouble as rookie O.J. Howard comes into the picture. The Alabama star was widely projected as a top 10 pick coming into the draft, so GM Jason Licht was doing cartwheels when he had the opportunity to snag him at No. 19 overall. At 6’6″, Howard has the size to win almost any jump ball and also has the speed to beat most linebackers across the middle of the field. In a two tight end set with Howard and the 6’5″ Brate, Dirk Koetter‘s Bucs could create one of the league’s biggest matchup nightmares.
On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers have retooled their safety group with the additions of second round pick Justin Evans and former Cowboy J.J. Wilcox. Those two plus the returning Chris Conte should help turn one of the team’s former weaknesses into a strength. It also helps that the Bucs safeties will be sandwiched between standout corners Vernon Hargreaves and Brent Grimes.
Will the Bucs’ offseason moves be enough to propel them to the playoffs in 2017? Cast your vote and back up your decision in the comment section.
South Notes: Saints, Peterson, Colts
The Saints should take it easy with prized offseason acquisition Adrian Peterson, one league executive tells ESPN.com’s Vaughn McClure.
“You don’t want to run that guy out there for 16 games,” the executive said. “Then you risk him getting hurt again.”
Even at the age of 32, Peterson still has the ability to break off big runs. However, he might not have the durability to withstand a full season. The Saints best bet, McClure argues, would be to roll him out in the team’s biggest games, including the season opener against his former team and major NFC South clashes. With the talented Mark Ingram at the helm plus third round pick Alvin Kamara and pass-catching specialist Travaris Cadet, that’s a gameplan that just might work for New Orleans.
Here’s more from the South divisions:
- The Saints were planning to replace Zach Strief for several seasons. Now, he’s one of the Saints’ best offensive linemen and one of the best right tackles in the league, Larry Holder of The Times-Picayune writes. The Saints selected Andrus Peat with the No. 13 overall pick in the 2015 draft to eventually take Strief’s job, but he now finds himself at left guard. There were times when the 33-year-old (34 in September) could have been squeezed out of New Orleans, but he’s now a pillar for the unit. This offseason, the Saints rewarded Strief with a pay bump.
- The Colts are focused on improving their turnover margin stat in 2017, and that influenced some of the team’s moves this offseason, Kevin Bowen of Colts.com writes. The Colts selected Ohio State safety Malik Hooker at No. 15 overall and shifted Darius Butler to safety with the hope that they can get more takeaways. On the other side of the ball, they’re hoping that Andrew Luck‘s smart decision making will help to limit turnovers.
- Anquan Boldin could be looking to play near his home in Florida, but the Buccaneers and Jaguars seem pretty well set at wide receiver.
North Notes: Bengals, Lewis, Bears, Jeffery
The Bengals deserve credit for sticking with Marvin Lewis rather than making a coaching change along the way, former Steelers head coach Bill Cowher says.
“Sometimes you lose a coach, you lose a player to free agency and you’re always having to find ways to create that high expectation and continuity every year. Marvin knows that,” Cowher told Jim Owczarski of the Cincinnati Enquirer. “I think the biggest thing is for ownership to make sure they don’t buy into ‘if you don’t go to the Super Bowl in three years to get another coach in.’ You set yourself back. Marvin’s very consistent He’s proven to be that model of consistency. He’s been a great face for the team and he’s built a culture there of players through time.”
After going 6-9 in 2016, Lewis is entering a contract year with the Bengals. The coach pushed for a new deal in the winter, but backed off of that request in the spring, perhaps after being shut down by team brass. Bengals players say they aren’t dwelling on Lewis’ future, but the coach is probably feeling the heat.
The Bengals have reached the AFC wild-card round seven times under Lewis, including five consecutive years from 2011 through 2015, but lost each time. If the Bengals cannot make real headway in the postseason this year, their patience with Lewis might run out.
Here’s a look at the AFC and NFC North:
- Will the Bears regret not re-signing Alshon Jeffery? Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com doesn’t think they’ll regret letting him go in the midst of a rebuilding phase. Jeffery’s talent is undeniable when he’s on the field, but he’s only played in all 16 games twice in his five NFL seasons due to injury. For a team that is looking to start over, it didn’t make much sense to match the Eagles’ offer of a one-year deal worth up to $14MM. Now, it’s time for the Bears to find out what they have in Cameron Meredith and Kevin White. Meredith enjoyed a breakout season in 2016 and he could take another big step forward in his age-25 campaign. Meanwhile, White is something of an unknown given all the injuries he has dealt with since going No. 7 overall in 2015.
- With the exception of the Jeremy Maclin signing, the Ravens did not do much this offseason to add playmakers at wide receiver or running back. That lack of action could hold them back from making a January push, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com writes. Now, he argues, there is increased pressure on Breshad Perriman to perform so that Mike Wallace can assume more of a secondary role. He also notes that the Ravens will have to come up with answers at tight end after losing Dennis Pitta.
- The Ravens are reportedly split about whether to pursue a reunion with linebacker Zach Orr.
AFC Notes: Jaguars, Bortles, Jets, Ravens
Is Blake Bortles a lost cause for the Jaguars? Mike Wells of ESPN.com seems to think so, writing that the team made a big mistake by exercising his fifth-year option for $19MM+ in 2018. Making matters worse, he writes, the Jaguars did not bring in a quarterback to compete with him and push him to perform better this offseason. Jags beat writer Michael DiRocco, meanwhile, has given up on the notion that Bortles can be an elite quarterback, saying that his ceiling could be in the Brian Hoyer/Matt Cassel/Jon Kitna range.
In his three NFL seasons, Bortles has 69 touchdowns against 51 interceptions with an 11-34 record. The onus is now on the 25-year-old to prove that he should be the man under center for Jacksonville. If not, he might be looking for work elsewhere after this season since the fifth-year option is guaranteed for injury only.
Here’s more out of the AFC:
- Tackle Ben Ijalana now has to prove that he is worth the Jets‘ $11MM investment, Brian Costello of the New York Post writes. Last year, Ijalana stepped into the left tackle spot after Ryan Clady went down and wound up making 13 starts. This offseason, the Jets gave him a two-year, $11MM deal to keep him in the fold. Given the lack of playing time he saw in his first few seasons, it’s hard to know exactly what the Jets have in Ijalana, even though he put in significant minutes in all 16 games last season. There’s also the advanced metrics to consider. Ijalana earned a 47.6 overall score from Pro Football Focus last year, ranking him as the No. 60 tackle in the NFL last year out of 78 qualified players.
- After re-signing with the Ravens on a five-year, $52.5MM contract, Brandon Williams says he wants to be more of an every down player, ESPN.com’s Jamison Hensley writes. “I need to get my sacks up,” Williams said. “I need to get my pass-rushing up. I am excited. I just had a meeting with our D-line coach, Coach [Joe] Cullen yesterday, about me kind of fine-tuning. I have the run-stop. I could still work on it, obviously, but I’m more just trying to work on my pass rush, trying to get out there and do the best I can.” Williams has had only 4.5 sacks in his four NFL seasons. Last season, ten interior lineman had five or more sacks and that’s a group that Williams is presumably hoping to join. His deal, which averages $10.8MM per season, is the highest of any nose tackle in the NFL and puts him No. 8 among all defensive tackles.
- Who do you think should be the Browns‘ starting quarterback in 2017? Click here to weigh in.
Jeff Fisher Hopes To Coach Again
Even after more than three decades of coaching in the professional ranks, it doesn’t sound like Jeff Fisher is done with the NFL. At least, he hopes that the NFL is not done with him. In the final episode of Amazon’s “All or Nothing” series chronicling the 2016 Rams, Fisher made it known that he wants to get involved with coaching again. 
[RELATED: Jeff Fisher Discusses Firing, Extension, Jared Goff]
“I want to get back on the sideline,” Fisher said (via PFT). “Not going to happen this year, obviously. We’ll just see what happens.”
The Rams went 31-45-1 under Fisher’s guidance through four-and-a-half seasons. For his career, Fisher owns a head coaching record of 173-165-1, giving him a not-so-impressive .512 lifetime winning percentage. Fisher has never won a Super Bowl and has not guided a team to the playoffs in nearly a decade, so he might not seem like a particularly sexy coaching candidate.
However, Fisher does offer tons of experience and he is extremely well connected through the league office. As Mike Florio notes, those connections could help him get in the door with an indecisive owner.
Fisher might be able to sell himself to one of the league’s 32 teams (or, perhaps, to one of 30 clubs) as a veteran coach who has six postseason appearances to his credit. The pitch may satisfy an owner out there, but it’s unlikely to energize a fanbase.
NFC South Notes: Ginn, Saints, Falcons
The Saints will miss wide receiver Brandin Cooks in this season, but the addition of Ted Ginn could help to soften the blow somewhat, Josh Katzenstein of The Times-Picayune argues. While Michael Thomas and Willie Snead draw the bulk of attention from opposing defenses, Ginn might be able to fly under the radar and make big plays with his blazing speed. Of course, the 32-year-old Ginn is not the same kind of talent as the 23-year-old Cooks. However, he can be dangerous in one-on-one scenarios and quarterback Drew Brees knows how to take advantage of those situations.
Over the past two seasons, Cooks averaged 81 receptions for 1,155 yards and more than eight touchdowns. Ginn can’t equal that production alone, but New Orleans will need every bit they can get out of their wide receivers now that the young star is in New England.
Here’s more from the NFC South:
- The Falcons spent $28.5MM to revamp the defensive line with the hope that Vic Beasley can built on his breakthrough season, D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. Beasley will be a focal point of opposing game plans after racking up 15.5 sacks in 2016, but the additions of Dontari Poe (one-year, $8MM deal), defensive end Jack Crawford (three years, $10.3MM) plus first round pick Takkarist McKinley (four years, $10.2MM) should help alleviate some of the pressure on the outside linebacker. The early word on Crawford is particularly promising. “Jack is a relentless in his pursuit,” defensive line coach Bryant Young said. “He’s a very hard, tough and competitive individual. I just really love that about him.”
- More from Ledbetter, who also profiled the Falcons‘ offensive line. He writes that the Falcons still must find a backup swing tackle to replace veteran Tom Compton after he joined the Bears in free agency. Recently, we ran down the best available starting tackles, including bigger names like Ryan Clady and Austin Pasztor. Both of those guys are probably looking for full-time starting gigs, but others like Mike Adams and Will Beatty could theoretically be options for Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Falcons are holding an open competition for the startight right guard job. Wes Schweitzer and Ben Garland are top contenders, per coach Dan Quinn, but Ledbetter gets the sense that Schweitzer is in the catbird seat. That would leave Garland and fourth round pick Sean Harlow on the bench to start the year.
Former Jags DT Roy Miller Drawing Interest
It’s almost July and Jaguars free agent defensive tackle Roy Miller remains on the open market. According to the player, that could be changing soon. Miller claims that he’ll soon be visiting interested clubs. 
[RELATED: Branden Albert Not A Lock To Start For Jaguars]
“There’s a few teams that have shown some interest here and there,” Miller told Mike Kaye of First Coast News. “I believe my agent has a few – there’s a couple of trips I have to take – this month. It was always [the plan] to kind of wait until mid-July, so I can go out there with enough time to heal and time to get back in shape and then go out there and compete.”
Miller made 50 starts for the Jaguars from 2013 through 2016. Unfortunately, his 2016 campaign ended early when he suffered a torn ACL in Week 6 against the Raiders. The 29-year-old (30 in July) was expecting the Jaguars to circle back to him, but Jacksonville did not show interest in retaining him. At least he’s not alone in that regard – the Jags also moved on from defenders Sen’Derrick Marks, Tyson Alualu, Jared Odrick, Davon House, and Dan Skuta.
Now that he’s healthy, Miller might finally be able to find work for 2017.