Indianapolis Colts News & Rumors

Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.

Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.

We’ve already looked at the AFC East, NFC East, AFC North, and NFC North, so let’s dive into the AFC South…

Houston Texans:

• Garrett Graham, TE: After posting a solid a 49/545/5 line during the 2014 campaign (and subsequently signing a three-year, $11.25MM deal), Graham regressed last season, catching just 18 balls for 197 yards and one score, missing the final four weeks of the season after suffering a high ankle sprain. Graham’s numbers can somewhat be forgiven due to the quality of quarterback play in Houston last season, but he wasn’t effective as a blocker, either. He’s due $3MM in base salary in each of the next two seasons, and while the Texans could save a decent amount (about $3.1MM) by releasing him now, he’s set to be the club’s starting tight end. Perhaps if Ryan Griffin or second-year pro C.J. Fiedorowicz — neither of who was overly productive last season — shows something during the preseason, there might be an infinitesimal chance that Graham is cut. But given head coach Bill O’Brien‘s affinity for tight end usage, it’s unlikely he’d cut ties with Graham. Prediction: not released.

Indianapolis Colts:

• Gosder Cherilus/Lance Louis/Donald Thomas, OL: While three-fifths of the Colts’ offensive line is relatively set — LT Anthony Castonzo, C Khaled Holmes, RG Todd Herremans — the left guard and right tackle positions are in a state of flux. 2014 second-rounder Jack Mewhort is versatile enough to play at both spots, and he’ll likely fill one of those roles; whether Indianapolis slots him in at guard or tackle could determine the roster fate of one or more of Cherilus, Louis, or Thomas. Recovery from injuries could also play a factor here, as Cherilus is coming back from knee surgery (and just had a scope in January), while Thomas has missed the better part of the last two seasons dealing with a torn quadriceps. Overall it’s a difficult scenario — Louis has the worst track record but would save the Colts the least money if released, while Cherilus and Thomas each have a better history of production but would save Indy $4MM each if cut. Unfortunately, it doesn’t sound like Thomas’ recovery is going very well, so for now I’ll guess that he’ll be out. Meanwhile, if Mewhort takes over right tackle, and the club can rely on some combination of Louis, Joe Reitz, and CFL signee Ben Heenan to man left guard, I could see Cherilus being released as well. But given that the Colts would incur $2.9MM in dead money (as opposed to that $4MM in savings), I think he’ll stick for one more season. Prediction: Thomas released.

• Robert Mathis, LB: Like Thomas, Mathis missed last season after suffering a major injury — in Mathis’ case, a torn Achilles — and also like Thomas, his rehab process isn’t going as well as he’d hoped. The 34-year-old reportedly suffered a setback in February, and two months later he told SiriuxXM Radio that his recovery was lagging. The Colts actually extended Mathis last fall as part of an interesting contractual compromise. Indy wasn’t obligated to compensate Mathis during the 2014 season because he was on the non-football injury list, as a result of his Achilles tear occurring during a private workout, but the club paid him anyway. In exchange, Mathis converted his $3MM roster bonus that was set to be paid in March 2015 into per-game roster bonuses, meaning he’ll only get that money if he’s on the field. The Colts also tacked an extra year (2016) onto his deal, but that year contains no guaranteed money. In short, if the team feels that Mathis isn’t healthy enough to contribute during the upcoming season, they can now release him with far less financial penalty. Whether he will be healthy enough is hard to say until training camp gets underway, but it’s hard to bet on a player in his mid-30s coming off a significant injury who plays a position that relies on explosion. Prediction: released.

Jacksonville Jaguars:

• Chris Clemons, DE: Signed to a four-year deal just last offseason that reunited him with Jaguars head coach(and former Seahawks DC) Gus Bradley, Clemons disappointed in his first season with the club, grading as the league’s second-worst 4-3 defensive end, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), a far cry from his tenure in Seattle when he ranked as a top-12 each year from 2010-12. Turning 34 years old in October, it doesn’t appear that Clemons has much left in the tank. Had third overall selection Dante Fowler Jr. not torn his ACL earlier this year, I would have thought it nearly 100% certain that Clemons is released. Jacksonville still has a bevy of defensive line talent available, however, so I’d still put the odds at around 85%. Clemons had no guaranteed money included in his contract beyond 2014, so the Jags won’t be strapped with any dead money. Prediction: released.

• Toby Gerhart, RB: Gerhart didn’t transition well in his shift from Adrian Peterson‘s backup to Jacksonville’s starter; he finished the year with just 101 carries, averaging only 3.2 yards per carry. With the Jaguars having used a second-round pick on running back T.J. Yeldon (who will presumably pair with 2014 pleasant surprise Denard Robinson), and with Gerhart not being due any guarantees for the remainder of his deal, it seemed likely that he’d be cut. But reports have indicated that the Jags are likely to keep Gerhart around, using him in something of a fullback/H-back hybrid role. The SB Nation blog Big Cat Country, in fact, posted an excellent piece earlier this week examining how new Jaguars OC Greg Olson could utilize Gerhart in a manner similar to Marcel Reece (whom Olson coached in Oakland). Prediction: not released.

• Ziggy Hood, DL: Like Clemons and Gerhart, Hood was another 2014 offseason addition who wasn’t all that productive during his first season in northeast Florida. A former first-round pick of the Steelers, Hood is certainly a capable rotational defensive lineman. But the Jags have been collecting a stable of DLs over the past year or so, and with Jared Odrick, a recovering Sen’Derrick Marks and Roy Miller, Ryan Davis, Andre Branch, and rookie Michael Bennett, I thought there might be a chance Hood is let go. But given that Marks will still be coming back from his torn ACL, Hood is probably safe. Prediction: not released.

Tennessee Titans:

• Michael Griffin, S: The 30-year-old Griffin’s roller coaster-like production over the past four seasons is very strange: PFF graded him as a top-15 safety in both 2011 and 2013, but as a bottom-five safety in both 2012 and 2014. Griffin is due to count $8.1MM against the cap in 2015, he’s coming off both shoulder and knee surgeries, and he was the subject of trade rumors last fall, so calling him a candidate for release is not a stretch. But the Titans don’t have much safety depth behind Griffin and free agent addition Da’Norris Searcy, so Griffin will likely stick on the 53-man roster. Prediction: not released.

• Andy Levitre, G: Levitre has never been the same player he was in Buffalo since joining Tennessee on a six-year, $48.6MM contract before the 2013 season, but he hasn’t been bad by any stretch of the imagination. He actually ranked as a top-15 guard in 2013 before falling to No. 45 last season (per PFF), but even that 2014 ranking meant he was simply a middle of the pack lineman. Of course, “serviceable” isn’t what the Titans were looking for when they guaranteed Levitre $13MM, but now that it sounds like he’s completely healthy, it doesn’t make sense for the Titans to give up now. Prediction: not released.

• Ropati Pitoitua, DL: Despite placing within the Titans’ top 10 cap charges, Pitoitua was demoted to the second team during summer practices in favor of last year’s fourth-round pick, DaQuan Jones. Now 30 years old, Pitoitua isn’t a great pass rusher, but he can hold up against the run. The question becomes whether a reserve run-stuffing defensive end is worth a $3.5MM+ cap hit, especially when the club could save nearly $3MM by releasing him. The answer is probably no, but given that Pitoitua could act as insurance if Jones flops, and the fact that the Titans don’t have any cap space issues, I think he’s safe. Prediction: not released.

• Charlie Whitehurst, QB: With Marcus Mariota in town (yet still unsigned), and 2014 draft pick Zach Mettenberger on the roster, I can’t see any way that the Titans choose to keep Whitehurst (and his $2.5MM cap figure) on the roster. Unless the club does decide to trade Mettenberger — a scenario that likely would have already played out — the Titans will probably cut Whitehurst, saving $2MM in the process. Prediction: released.

Before NFL training camps get underway later this month, we’ll be taking a closer look at the top 2015 cap hits for teams around the league. We began our series in June by focusing on the NFC East and AFC East divisions, and last week we looked at the NFC North, AFC North, and NFC South. Today, we’ll head back to the AFC to examine the South division.

Listed below are the top 10 cap hits for the coming season for each of the four AFC South franchises, accompanied by some observations on the spending habits of those clubs. Let’s dive in….

Houston Texans:

1. J.J. Watt, DL: $13,969,000
2. Johnathan Joseph, CB: $11,750,000
3. Duane Brown, LT: $9,500,000
4. Arian Foster, RB: $8,706,250
5. Brian Cushing, LB: $7,891,250
6. Kareem Jackson, CB: $7,453,125
7. Andre Johnson, WR: $7,319,585 (dead money)
8. Brian Hoyer, QB: $5,218,750
9. Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB: $5,062,045
10. Derek Newton, RT: $4,500,000
    Total: $81,370,005

Not many players have an interior defensive lineman atop their list of cap hits, but no other team has an interior defensive lineman that has the same impact on the field that Watt does. Without a top quarterback to pay, the Texans are able to devote a significant chunk of cap space to defensive players like Watt. Of course, the All-Pro had originally been slated to have an even higher cap number in 2015 before a restructure reduced that figure by $8MM.

Joseph, Cushing, and Jackson are the notable defenders besides Watt taking up sizable pieces of cap room, and their performances will go a long way to determining how the Houston defense performs this season, and what sort of value the Texans are getting out of their top 10 cap hits.

Cushing stayed mostly healthy in 2014 after missing more games than he played in 2012 and 2013, but it wasn’t one of his better seasons. Joseph, meanwhile, has been effective but perhaps overpriced — an extension this offseason added two seasons to his contract at a rate of $7MM per year, which is a more reasonable rate. As for Jackson, he re-upped with the Texans in the offseason, so this will be the first year of his new deal with the team.

Indianapolis Colts:

1. Vontae Davis, CB: $11,250,000
2. Andre Johnson, WR: $7,500,000
3. Robert Mathis, OLB: $7,470,586
4. Anthony Castonzo, LT: $7,438,000
5. Arthur Jones, DL: $7,100,000
6. Andrew Luck, QB: $7,034,363
7. Trent Cole, OLB: $6,953,125
8. Gosder Cherilus, RT: $6,900,000
9. Greg Toler, CB: $5,833,334
10. D’Qwell Jackson, LB: $5,750,000
    Total: $73,229,408

With only one player on the roster whose cap hit exceeds $7.5MM, the Colts have loaded up on players in that $5MM-7.5MM range — everyone but Davis on this list is separated by a mere $1.75MM. Of course, some of those players will likely eventually have to take pay cuts or be released when Luck’s big payday arrives, but for now, the fact that the former No. 1 pick remains on his rookie contract allows the Colts to surround him with several mid-level investments.

Of course, one reason the Colts were able to add several of these players at reasonable prices is that many are likely past their primes. Mathis is 34, Cole will turn 33 in October, and Jackson will turn 32 in September. Those veterans are expected to be key contributors on defense, and if their performances don’t match up to their salaries, we could see them become release candidates a year from now.

The other noteworthy veteran on this list is Johnson, who shows up on two separate top-10 lists in the AFC South, since he’s still counting for over $7MM in dead money on the Texans’ cap. The standout receiver will turn 34 later this week. However, taking into account the numbers he has posted in recent years in Houston while playing with mediocre quarterbacks, it’s not hard to see why the Colts were willing to commit a decent portion of cap room to him this year to see what he can do with Luck.

Jacksonville Jaguars:

1. Julius Thomas, TE: $10,300,000
2. Jared Odrick, DL: $9,000,000
3. Jermey Parnell, RT: $8,000,000
4. Paul Posluszny, LB: $6,885,416
5. Davon House, CB: $6,500,000
6. Luke Joeckel, LT: $5,782,254
7. Sen’Derrick Marks, DT: $5,425,000
8. Zane Beadles, G: $5,000,000
9. Chris Clemons, DE: $5,000,000
10. Blake Bortles, QB: $4,694,273
    Total: $66,586,943

The first few names on the Jaguars’ list of top 10 cap hits reads like a who’s-who of the team’s offseason free agent signings. Thomas, Odrick, Parnell, and House all headed to Jacksonville as free agents in March, while Posluszny reworked his deal with the club.

Most of the time, cap numbers for newly-signed players start small before increasing in the later years of their contracts, but the huge amount of cap room Jacksonville held heading into the offseason allowed the team to frontload those deals — the 2015 cap numbers for those four free agent signees all exceed the annual values of their contracts. In 2016, their combined cap hits will total $27.8MM, as opposed to $33.8MM this year.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Jaguars’ free agent class performs in 2015, since players like Parnell and House weren’t even starters for their old teams. But, like every other team in the AFC South, Jacksonville isn’t currently devoting big bucks to its quarterback, which gives the club the flexibility to roll the dice on these players with upside. If they don’t pan out, they’ll be gone long before Bortles reaches his second contract.

Tennessee Titans:

1. Jason McCourty, CB: $8,600,000
2. Andy Levitre, G: $8,600,000
3. Michael Griffin, S: $8,100,000
4. Jurrell Casey, DL: $6,720,000
5. Delanie Walker, TE: $5,275,000
6. Sammie Lee Hill, DT: $4,666,668
7. Brian Orakpo, OLB: $4,468,750
8. Derrick Morgan, OLB: $4,000,000
9. Da’Norris Searcy, S: $3,625,000
10. Ropati Pitoitua, DL: $3,612,500
    Total: $57,667,918

No team that we’ve examined in our series so far has a smaller No. 1 cap charge than the Titans, whose $8.6MM figures for McCourty and Levitre pale in comparison to some other cap hits around the league — you could triple that number and still not match Drew Brees‘ $26.4MM, for instance. The lack of an eight-digit cap hit for any player ensures that the Titans’ top 10 players count for only about $57.67MM overall against the cap, which is also easily the lowest figure we’ve encountered so far.

With nearly $26MM in cap room still remaining, the Titans have more space than every other NFL team except the Jaguars, and it’s a little curious that the Titans didn’t emulate their division rivals when it comes to structuring free agent contracts. Orakpo, Morgan, and Searcy all signed free agent deals with Tennessee this spring, but those contracts aren’t nearly as frontloaded as Jacksonville’s. That trio will count for $20.785MM against the Titans’ 2016 cap, nearly doubling their combined total for 2015.

Of course, there’s one notable name missing from this list, as first-round pick Marcus Mariota has yet to sign his rookie deal with the Titans. As the second overall pick, Mariota will be in line for a 2015 cap number of $4,402,541 when he eventually signs his contract, which would place him eighth on this list, bumping off Pitoitua.

Information from Over the Cap was used in the creation of this post.