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La Canfora On WR Extensions, Colts, JPP, Jets

By | at July 27, 2015 11:37 am

After addressing a few burning questions on DeflateGate, the Marcus Mariota contract negotiations, and Junior Galette‘s release, Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com takes a look around the rest of the NFL, passing along several noteworthy tidbits from all over the league. Let’s dive right in and check out a few of the highlights from La Canfora’s newest piece…

  • La Canfora expects both Julio Jones and A.J. Green to sign new deals before the 2015 season begins, and estimates that both deals will fall in the range of $13MM per year. I’m guessing that figure takes into account their current $10.176MM salaries for 2015, so the annual average of the new money would be closer to the $14MM per year that Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas received.
  • Several executives around the league believe that Andrew Luck‘s price tag may end up being so high that it puts the Colts in a bind with T.Y. Hilton. La Canfora thinks Hilton’s extension could come in at close to $12MM per year, and some observers aren’t convinced Indianapolis would go that high.
  • Jason Pierre-Paul and the Giants will likely come to terms on a one-year contract agreement that features per-game roster bonuses, says La Canfora, adding that New York also hopes to get something out of Will Beatty in the season’s second half.
  • La Canfora suggests that Muhammad Wilkerson and the Jets should consider working out a short-term extension – perhaps for two or three years – that gives the standout defensive lineman a nice chunk of guaranteed money and buys the team some time to make long-term decisions on Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams. Wilkerson would be “very open” to the idea, per La Canfora.
  • Some team executives around the league raised an eyebrow at the Steelers‘ big-money extension for Cameron Heyward. However, Pittsburgh likes Heyward more than a lot of clubs do and was willing to take a “calculated gamble” on his upside, writes La Canfora.
1 comment Atlanta Falcons Cincinnati Bengals Indianapolis Colts New York Giants New York Jets Pittsburgh Steelers

Reaction To Gosder Cherilus’ Release

By | at July 26, 2015 3:34 pm

The Colts released veteran offensive tackle Gosder Cherilus this morning — the club will save $4MM in cap space this season, but they’ll incur $5.8MM in dead money in 2016. Let’s look at some of the reaction to the move, as well as what it means for both the Colts and Cherilus himself:

  • The Colts tried to work out a contract restructure before releasing Cherilus, but negotiations were not fruitful, according to Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star. Cherlius’ agent, Greg Diulus, tells Holder that Indy’s offer was “not a reasonable proposal.”
  • Cherilus is “healthy and in great shape,” Diulus tells Holder, a sentiment that Holder corroborates with a second source. But even though the veteran right tackle is injury-free at the moment, the Colts still view him as an injury risk. Were to he suffer another serious injury during training camp or the preseason, the club would’ve been on the hook for his entire 2015 cap charge, so parting ways now makes sense, writes Holder.
  • More from Holder, who says that while a reunion between Cherilus and Indianapolis isn’t out of the question, the 31-year-old expects to sign elsewhere.
  • Given Cherilus’ 2016 cap charge of $9.9MM, he was probably going to be released after the upcoming season regardless, tweets Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap. By releasing him now, the Colts are able to save $4MM, which might not seem like a significant figure, but given that the club is going to offer a large extension to quarterback Andrew Luck, every penny that can be saved — both in cash and on the salary cap — is beneficial, says Fitzgerald (Twitter link).
  • Now that Jack Mewhort is slated to take over at right tackle, Mike Wells of ESPN.com rounds up some quotes from general manager Ryan Grigson and Mewhort himself on the second-year pro’s versatility and the differences between playing tackle and guard.
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Colts Release Gosder Cherilus

By | at July 26, 2015 11:26 am

The Colts have released one of their starting offensive players from last season, announcing today in a press release that they’ve parted ways with right tackle Gosder Cherilus. As a veteran player, Cherilus won’t have to pass through waivers, and will immediately be free to sign with another team.

Cherilus, who turned 31 last month, signed a five-year, $35MM contract with the Colts in 2013, and started 29 games for the club at right tackle over the past two seasons. However, after a solid first season in Indianapolis, he struggled last year. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked Cherilus 70th out of 84 qualified tackles, and he graded particularly poorly as a pass blocker. According to PFF’s data, he allowed six quarterback sacks, another 42 hits or hurries.

Because he received a sizable signing bonus when he signed his deal back in 2013, Cherilus will still count for a decent chunk of dead money against the Colts’ cap. His $6.9MM hit in 2015 will be reduced to just $2.9MM, but he’ll count for another $5.8MM against the club’s 2016 cap. All that dead money will serve as the Colts’ latest reminder of a poor class of 2013 free agents — the club has since cut LaRon Landry and Ricky Jean-Francois as well.

Now that the Colts have moved on from Cherilus, who was identified by our Dallas Robinson earlier this month as a release candidate, expect Jack Mewhort to get the first look at right tackle for the Colts, tweets Mike Wells of ESPN.com. Mewhort was the team’s starting left guard in 2014.

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Saturday Mailbags: Bills, Colts, Panthers, Washington

By | at July 25, 2015 3:52 pm

The last round of offseason mailbags are emerging today. Here is some of the top conjecture from around the league.

  • One of the flashy new offensive weapons to join the Bills this offseason, Percy Harvin may still have trouble re-establishing the form he displayed with the Vikings, writes Vic Carucci of the Buffalo News. Despite the well-traveled Harvin being the most accomplished wideout the Bills possess, Carucci does not think he’ll be able to usurp Sammy Watkins or Robert Woods in the team’s target hierarchy. With LeSean McCoy and Charles Clay also present in a ground-oriented offense, Carucci doesn’t see a satisfactory amount of work coming Harvin’s way for the quarterback-limited squad.
  • Even with the possibility that Jack Mewhort relocates to right tackle from left guard, Kevin Bowen of Colts.com notes the Colts don’t seem interested in pursuing Evan Mathis. Instead, Bowen expects Lance Louis and Hugh Thornton to jostle for the job that the still-present yet injury-besieged Donald Thomas vacated in 2013.
  • Rookie Cameron Artis-Payne should outshine Fozzy Whittaker in training camp and claim the Panthers‘ No. 2 running back job this preseason, opines ESPN.com’s David Newton. Taking over for Tre Mason in Auburn’s unique rushing attack, Artis-Payne led the SEC in rushing last season with 1,608 yards. Although Jonathan Stewart finally has the gig to himself, securing talent behind him is paramount, considering the 28-year-old has not played a full 16-game season since 2011.
  • Dwight Freeney is not a realistic candidate to sign with Washington, writes John Keim of ESPN.com, but the team is still looking for linebacker depth.
  • Keim also sees Andre Roberts securing Washington’s No. 3 wide receiver spot ahead of rookie Jamison Crowder and 2014 fifth-rounder Ryan Grant, although the team views Grant as a third receiver in the future.
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AFC Notes: Pats, Smith, Raiders, Dolphins

By | at July 25, 2015 2:29 pm

Here are some notes from around the AFC on the last Saturday before training camps begin.

  • Chief among the owners that would be irked if Roger Goodell trimmed Tom Brady‘s Deflategate suspension are Ravens boss Steve Bisciotti and Jim Irsay of the Colts, Sal Palantonio of ESPN.com notes. The news that these two lead this figurative charge isn’t exactly surprising, with each’s organization voicing gripes during the Patriots‘ playoff run that included wins over each squad. The longtime ESPN reporter also noted other AFC owners who believe the Pats have “gotten away with murder” would be upset if Brady’s four-game ban was slashed.
  • Recently suspended cornerback Sean Smith may have been able to suit up for the Chiefs in Week 1 had he resolved his case by last November instead of this April, reports Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. Had Kansas City’s top cornerback reached a resolution before Nov. 1, 2014, he could have paid a $50K fine since players, with this opportunity being afforded to players with pending charges under the NFL’s previous substance-abuse policy. Instead, the 28-year-old Smith will miss three games under the new policy, which was agreed upon in September 2014, and forfeit $750K in base salary.
  • The Raiders and the city of Oakland are communicating again after more than a month of silence, report Matthew Artz, Rebecca Parr and Mike Blasky of the Bay Area News Group. Raiders president Mark Badain called Oakland assistant city administrator Claudia Cappio. The sides previous halted communication after the Bay Area News Group’s publishing of a plan that would have called for team ownership to sell off 20% of the club.
  • Joe Philbin isn’t concerned about Branden Albert and DeVante Parker‘s Week 1 availability for the Dolphins despite offseason rehabilitation, writes Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald. There’s still a chance the highly paid left tackle won’t pass his physical and subsequently end up on the physically unable to perform list, however, after his knee surgery. Parker will not be 100% by training camp, though, after undergoing foot surgery.
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Offseason In Review: Indianapolis Colts

By | at July 24, 2015 8:54 pm

The 2014 campaign ended horrifically for the Colts, whose season came crashing down in a 45-7 loss to the Patriots in the AFC championship game. In response, Indy spent the offseason adding multiple established veterans on both sides of the ball in hopes of overthrowing the Pats and earning a Super Bowl trip for the first time since the 2009-10 season.

Notable signings:

The Colts had the NFL’s third-ranked offense last year, but that belied a subpar rushing attack that finished 22nd in yardage and 25th in per-attempt average. Their most productive back, Ahmad Bradshaw, suffered a season-ending broken fibula in November. Bradshaw was hardly a workhorse when healthy, though, exceeding double-digit carries just four times in 10 games. Enter Frank Gore, the longtime 49er whom the Colts signed to a three-year, $12MM deal in free agency. Gore gives the Colts something they’ve been missing for a while – a durable, productive back. Despite his advanced age relative to the position, the 32-year-old Gore’s production certainly hasn’t stalled. In 2014, the 10-year veteran appeared in all 16 games, surpassed the 250-carry mark, and rushed for 1,100-plus yards. It was the fourth straight season in which Gore accomplished all three of those feats simultaneously. Moreover, he has never amassed fewer than 4.1 yards per carry in a season – another welcome change for a Colts team whose previous leading rusher, Trent Richardson, totaled a paltry 3.3 yards per attempt last year.

The Colts’ other big offensive move in free agency was to further beef up an Andrew Luck-led passing game that led the league in yardage last year. Indy signed wideout Andre Johnson, who had been with AFC South rival Houston his entire career (since 2003), to a three-year, $21MM contract. Like Gore, the 34-year-old Johnson is on the wrong end of the aging curve, but he also remains a viable weapon. Johnson caught 85 passes last season, though he averaged a meager 11.0 yards per reception (his lowest total since 2005) and racked up only three touchdowns. Bear in mind, though, that Johnson isn’t far removed from a two-year stretch that saw him haul in 221 catches and over 3,000 yards from 2012-13. Additionally, Johnson stands to benefit from the presence of Luck, who is far more talented than any quarterback he played with in Houston. In Johnson, Luck should have another solid target to accompany T.Y. Hilton, Indy’s undisputed No. 1 receiver, first-round wideout Phillip Dorsett and tight end Coby Fleener.

Defensively, the Colts finished a respectable 11th in the league last season. However, the Patriots exposed them twice – once in a 42-20 November shellacking and in the aforementioned AFC title game blowout. New England rushed for a ridiculous 423 yards in those games, and quarterback Tom Brady was basically untouched in both matchups (Indy sacked him once in total). The Colts responded to the latter issue by signing a couple of vets in linebacker Trent Cole (two years, $14MM) and lineman Kendall Langford (four years, $17.2MM).

The 32-year-old Cole added 6.5 sacks for the Eagles last season, giving him 85.5 during the decade he spent in Philadelphia, and Pro Football Focus ranked him a solid 12th out of 46 qualifying OLBs (subscription required) for his pass rushing.

As for Langford, the most impressive fact about the seven-year veteran’s career is that he never missed a game in either of his previous stops (Miami and St. Louis). He’s just two years removed from a career-high five-sack season and thinks the best is yet to come as part of the Colts’ 3-4 defense.

“I feel like I’m back at home in a 3-4 scheme,” Langford told the Colts’ official website last month. “I’m excited about it.”

Head coach Chuck Pagano echoed Langford’s sentiment.

“Kendall Langford, you guys are going to be surprised,” Pagano said. “You think we just brought in a run stopper, but he’s shown in some of these 11-on-11 drills that he’s got some pass rush capabilities, will get push inside.”

The Colts’ pass rush looks better on paper with the acquisitions of Cole and Langford and the return of linebacker Robert Mathis – who led the league with 19.5 sacks in 2013 before missing all of last year with a torn Achilles’. While the Colts did rank ninth in sacks in 2014, they lacked fearsome pass rushers and had to rely too much on blitzing to generate pressure.

Elsewhere on defense, the Colts retained three of their own key players – linebacker Jerrell Freeman, cornerback Darius Butler and Pro Bowl safety Mike Adams – and signed ex-Broncos LB Nate Irving. The Colts hope the 27-year-old Irving, whom PFF ranked 12th among 60 qualifying 3-4 ILBs against opposing ground games last year (subscription required), can help improve their 18th-ranked run defense and make less them less vulnerable against teams like the Patriots.

Notable losses:

The Colts said goodbye to some recognizable names during the offseason, including Reggie Wayne – one of the franchise’s all-time best players – but general manager Ryan Grigson adequately replaced most of them. Johnson, Dorsett and second-year man Donte Moncrief will do more than enough at wideout to make the losses of Wayne and Hakeem Nicks easy to swallow. If his career is any indication, Gore will be a major improvement over both Bradshaw and Richardson. Langford, on the other hand, has his work cut out for him in grabbing the reins along the D-line from the retired Cory Redding and the released Ricky Jean-Francois, who combined for 1,300-plus snaps last year. Redding was particularly impressive in 2014, appearing in over 70 percent of Indy’s defensive snaps and drawing significant praise from PFF for his play.

Trades:

  • Acquired a 2015 third-round pick (No. 65; CB D’Joun Smith) and a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 109; S Clayton Geathers) from the Buccaneers in exchange for a 2015 second-round pick (No. 61; G Ali Marpet) and a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 128).
  • Acquired a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 151; DT David Parry) from the 49ers in exchange for a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 165; P Bradley Pinion) and a 2015 seventh-round pick (No. 244; OL Trenton Brown).

Extensions/Restructures:

Draft picks:

  • 1-29: Phillip Dorsett, WR (Miami): Signed
  • 3-65: D’Joun Smith, CB (Florida Atlantic): Signed
  • 3-93: Henry Anderson, DE (Stanford): Signed
  • 4-109: Clayton Geathers, S (UCF): Signed
  • 5-151: David Parry, DT (Stanford): Signed
  • 6-205: Josh Robinson, RB (Mississippi State): Signed
  • 6-207: Amarlo Herrera, LB (Georgia): Signed
  • 7-255: Denzelle Good, T (Mars Hill): Signed

The Colts pulled off a surprise in the first round when they added yet another receiver in Dorsett, an ex-Miami Hurricane who tries to make up for less-than-ideal size (5-foot-10, 185 pounds) with explosiveness (a 40-yard dash time of 4.29, 24.2 yards per catch in college). Dorsett is similar to the 5-9, 178-pound Hilton in stature and style, and one wonders if the Colts chose the former as a potential long-term replacement for the latter. Hilton could potentially depart Indy as a free agent next offseason, which would leave the Colts looking for a star-caliber, field-stretching wideout. Regardless of what happens with Hilton, the Colts hope Dorsett can be just that, and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton expects him to make an immediate impact.

“His play speed is exceptional,” Hamilton told Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star (Twitter link). “We can attack the field vertically.”

Indy also may have added another couple immediate impact types in a pair of third-round picks, cornerback D’Joun Smith and defensive end Henry Anderson.

Smith, who intercepted nine passes at Florida Atlantic (including seven in 2013), gives the Colts depth behind Vontae Davis, Darius Butler and Greg Toler, and could wrest playing time from the latter two if they don’t improve on last year’s performance. Both Butler and Toler surrendered ratings of over 102 to opposing quarterbacks, according to PFF – which ranked Butler 67th and Toler 99th, respectively, out of 108 qualifying corners (subscription required).

If Smith’s anywhere near as good as he is confident, he’ll be a huge pickup for the Colts.

“Under the right tutelage and the right coach that’s going to make my technique even better, I’m probably going to be the best cornerback to play the game,” Smith told the Colts’ website in May.

As for Anderson, the Colts picked the ex-Stanford Cardinal 93rd overall after a standout college career (first-team All-Pac-12 in 2014).

“He’s what you’re looking for at end in this defense,” Grigson said, according to Colts.com.  “I know we’re going to have him for a long time.

For his part, Anderson said in May that he’s “really excited about coming in and providing as much help as possible to the defense.”

Given the losses of Redding and Jean-Francois, Anderson is likely to have the opportunity this year to quickly become a fixture along Indy’s D-line.

Other:

  • Exercised 2016 fifth-year option for QB Andrew Luck ($16.155MM).
  • Signed 10 players to reserve/futures contracts.
  • Signed 15 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.

The Colts made the no-brainer decision to keep Luck in the fold for at least two more seasons, exercising his fifth-year option for 2016. The question is when, not if, they’ll ink him to a deal that keeps him a Colt for the duration of his career. Since the Colts chose Luck with the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft, he has started all 52 of their games (playoffs included), led them to three straight double-digit-win outputs, and thrown for 86 touchdowns and nearly 13,000 yards in the regular season. He’ll be paid handsomely for his performance and status as the face of Indy’s franchise, and ESPN’s Mike Wells wrote earlier this week that the Colts and Luck will get to work on a contract extension after the upcoming season.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Vontae Davis, CB: $11,250,000
  2. Andre Johnson, WR: $7,500,000
  3. Robert Mathis, OLB: $7,470,586
  4. Anthony Castonzo, LT: $7,438,000
  5. Arthur Jones, DL: $7,100,000
  6. Andrew Luck, QB: $7,034,363
  7. Trent Cole, OLB: $6,953,125
  8. Gosder Cherilus, RT: $6,900,000
  9. Greg Toler, CB: $5,833,334
  10. D’Qwell Jackson, LB: $5,750,000

After a productive offseason, the Colts look like a better team than the one that made the final four last year. At the very least, barring injuries, their two-year reign atop the AFC South should extend to a third season. That would mean a fourth straight playoff berth, which could lead to a third consecutive January confrontation with the Patriots – who have humiliated the Colts in back-to-back postseasons.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

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AFC Notes: Broncos, Colts, Raiders

By | at July 24, 2015 8:46 pm

Here’s the latest from around the AFC as Friday wraps up:

  • Broncos defensive lineman Antonio Smith missed voluntary offseason workouts because of an ongoing investigation into criminal abuse allegations against him in Texas. However, he could be with the Broncos when veterans report to their training camp Thursday, Nicki Jhabvala and Troy Renck of the Denver Post report. The 10-year veteran spent last season with AFC West rival Oakland, racking up three sacks (giving him 44.5 for his career), before signing with Denver as a free agent.
  • Kansas City’s Justin Houston signed the richest deal ever for a linebacker earlier this month (six years, $101.5MM with $52.5MM guaranteed), which sets the bar for the Broncos’ Von Miller‘s next contract, writes Jhabvala. “I guarantee you Von thinks he deserves Justin Houston money,” Joel Corry of CBS Sports, an ex-agent, told Jhabvala. By career sack total alone, Miller has a case: He has 49 in four seasons, while Houston has 48.5 in the same amount of years.
  • It’s always risky to expect big things from a player returning from a torn Achilles’, which Colts pass rusher Robert Mathis is doing this season, but head coach Chuck Pagano has high hopes for the 34-year-old linebacker. “He will make a huge impact this season,” Pagano said, according to ESPN’s Ed Werder (via Twitter). Mathis missed all of last season after leading the league in sacks with 19.5 in 2013.
  • In other Colts news, Kevin Bowen of the team’s official website wrote of the concerns centering on the club’s offensive line as the season nears. Indy needs a major bounce-back season from veteran right tackle Gosder Cherilus, who struggled with injuries and poor play last year, and for newly signed Todd Herremans to be the answer at right guard.
  • Running back Latavius Murray was one of the Raiders’ few standouts last season, rushing for 424 yards on 82 attempts (a sterling 5.2 per-carry average) during his first year of action. Oakland is counting on him to be its No. 1 back this season, writes Scott Bair of CSNBayArea.com. That would mean a significant increase in workload for the 2013 sixth-round pick.
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Colts Agree To Terms With Two Third-Rounders

By | at July 24, 2015 8:14 pm

The Colts have agreed to terms with cornerback D’Joun Smith and defensive lineman Henry Anderson, their third-round picks from this year’s NFL draft, according to ESPN’s Mike Wells (Twitter link). Smith will get a four-year, $3.5MM deal (800k signing bonus), while Anderson will receive $2.9MM (610k bonus) over four years, Mike Chappell of CBS4 reports (via Twitter).

Smith and Anderson were the last two unsigned picks from the league’s 2015 draft class, meaning all 256 selections from this year are now under contract.

Smith, whom the Colts chose 65th overall out of Florida Atlantic, intercepted nine passes in college and is expected to vie for playing time in a cornerback corps that is shaky after No. 1 man Vontae Davis.

Anderson, who was first-team All-Pac-12 in 2014 before the Colts took him 93rd out of Stanford, could make an immediate impact along Indy’s D-line.

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Extra Points: Colts, Galette, Falcons

By | at July 22, 2015 8:35 pm

Colts GM Ryan Grigson recently told Mike Chappell of CBS4 (Twitter link) that there were “language issues” to finalize when it came to deals for cornerback D’Joun Smith and defensive lineman Henry Anderson. Grigson added that there was no reason to believe those contracts wouldn’t get done for the two third-round draftees before August 1st. Smith and Anderson are the only remaining unsigned rookies now that Marcus Mariota and the Titans have reached agreement.

Here are a few more Wednesday evening odds and ends from around the league:

  • NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy told Evan Woodbery of The Times-Picayune that there is no update on outside linebacker Junior Galette‘s status with the Saints, just one week away from the start of training camp. McCarthy said the NFL would not comment or even confirm on whether there was meeting between Galette and league officials. “We consider a meeting a confidential part of the process between our office and the player,” he said.
  • This offseason, the Falcons moved on from veteran running back Steven Jackson and will go with a younger group at the position. D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution takes a look at the group, headlined by Devonta Freeman, a fourth-round pick in 2014 and Tevin Coleman, a third-round pick in 2015.
  • Commissioner Roger Goodell told Mark Kaboly of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (Twitter link) on Tuesday that the NFL won’t expand past 32 teams. Interestingly enough, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred recently said that he will at least explore the idea of expansion.
  • The Raiders could use another young player to step up and create depth on the interior defensive line, Scott Bair of CSNBayArea.com writes. Still, Oakland did add some size to its line this offseason with the signing of Dan Williams in free agency. C.J. Wilson, meanwhile, is expected to serve as a super-sub for the Raiders.
0 comments Atlanta Falcons Indianapolis Colts Las Vegas Raiders New Orleans Saints

Community Tailgate: Who Will Win AFC South?

By | at July 22, 2015 4:15 pm

We’re still several weeks away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this summer, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

As the 2015 season inches closer, we’re examining each NFL division, asking you which team you expect to finish atop the East, North, South, and West. Having already taken a closer look at the East and North divisions, along with the NFC South, we’re shifting our focus to the AFC South, perhaps the league’s most lopsided division.

According to betting site Bovada.lv, no NFL team is more likely to win its division than the Colts, who are even heavier favorites in the AFC South than the Packers, Seahawks, or Patriots are in their respective divisions. That’s not a surprise. After all, the Colts have won the division by multiple games in each of the last two seasons, averaging 11 wins per year while their division rivals average just 4.5 wins.

There’s not much reason to expect the Colts to fall off in 2015 either, with Andrew Luck continuing to improve, and veterans like Frank Gore and Andre Johnson now at his disposal, along with first-round receiver Phillip Dorsett. There are still some questions on the defensive side of the ball in Indianapolis, but as long as Luck stays healthy, those defensive shortcomings may not be a factor until the postseason.

While the Colts aren’t necessarily one of the league’s most dominant teams, the lack of competition in the AFC South contributes to Indianapolis’ strong odds to win the division. The Titans and Jaguars finished 2-14 and 3-13 respectively a year ago, and while they may not be quite that dismal again this year, it’s hard to imagine either team making a playoff push, even with some encouraging free agent additions in Jacksonville, and new quarterback Marcus Mariota in Tennessee.

That leaves the Texans as the team most likely to challenge the Colts for the AFC South crown, as they did a year ago, finishing 9-7. J.J. Watt has a greater impact on a given game than any other defender in the league, and a healthy Jadeveon Clowney would make that Houston D even more dangerous. But there’s still no clear-cut solution at the quarterback position, where Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett will battle for the No. 1 job. Additionally, with Johnson in Indianapolis, Arian Foster and DeAndre Hopkins will be asked to carry a significant load on offense, and the unit could be in real trouble if either player gets hurt.

What do you think? Will the Texans knock the Colts out of the top spot? Will the Jaguars or Texans make a surprise run for the division? Or will the Colts cruise to another division title? Who do you expect to win the AFC South? Weigh in below in the comment section with your thoughts!

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