Jaguars To Acquire Mac Jones From Patriots
The Patriots have agreed to trade quarterback Mac Jones to the Jaguars, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Although the deal cannot be finalized until the new league year opens on Wednesday and until Jones passes a physical, it appears that Jones — a Jacksonville native — will try to resurrect his career in his hometown.
Schefter reported that New England and Jacksonville were discussing a sixth-round pick as trade compensation, and Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network confirms that a sixth-round choice (No. 192 overall) is the official return for Jones. Ian Rapoport of NFL.com says four teams were in the mix for the Alabama product, though Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports says that, as of yesterday, the Jags were the only club to make an offer. Albert Breer of SI.com adds that New England was seeking a fifth-rounder before ultimately settling for the sixth.
A report from late last month suggested that the Patriots had a three-step plan in place for addressing their quarterback situation this offseason, and trading Mac Jones was one of those three steps. While there was some pushback on the notion that New England had developed some sort of QB flowchart that had been distributed throughout the organization, it has seemed clear for some time that the club would seek a Jones trade, which would represent a beneficial change of scenery for both player and team. Now, the Pats can focus on adding a veteran to their roster and/or acquiring a top collegiate prospect in the draft. The most recent rumors on the draft front have indicated that if Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are off the board by the time New England is on the clock with the No. 3 pick, the club will trade back.
While Jones is obviously not a threat to unseat Trevor Lawrence as the Jaguars’ starting quarterback, he will have an opportunity to regain his footing while working with Lawrence — whom he has known for years, as the two frequently competed against each other in high school recruiting camps — and head coach Doug Pederson, a celebrated quarterback whisperer. Jones, the Offensive Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021, clearly has potential that may have been stunted by the Patriots’ coaching and schematic maneuvers in 2022, and as he enters the final year of his rookie contract, Pederson & Co. will try to unlock some of that potential and at least turn Jones into a viable backup.
Another factor in the trade is the health of current backup C.J. Beathard, as ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler details. Per Fowler, Beathard has been “banged up,” so the Jones acquisition gives the Jags a healthy QB2 option. The nature and extent of Beathard’s injury is unclear, and so is his future with the club at this point, though ESPN’s Mike Reiss says Jones and Beathard are expected to compete for the backup job.
The Jaguars will still have a sixth-round compensatory choice (No. 212 overall) in the 2024 draft.
Free Agency Notes: Queen, Seahawks, Packers, Panthers, Pats, Jackson, Bengals
The Ravens’ Roquan Smith payment always made it likely Patrick Queen would need to collect his money elsewhere. Now that Queen’s most recent defensive coordinator landed a coaching job, a logical fit has emerged. Indeed, many executives predicted (via the Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora) Queen would wind up reunited with Mike Macdonald in Seattle. With the Seahawks likely to again part ways with Bobby Wagner, spots are open. Jordyn Brooks, who joined Queen as a 2020 first-round LB pick, is also on the cusp of free agency. Queen is coming off his best season — a Pro Bowl showing alongside Smith — and turned a corner once the Bears trade commenced last year.
Checking in eighth on PFR’s top 50 free agents list (before the Chris Jones and Baker Mayfield deals), Queen could be in line to rival what Tremaine Edmunds received ($18MM per year, $41.8MM fully guaranteed) last year and land a top-five ILB contract. Barely 12 hours from the legal tampering period, here is the latest from the free agent scene:
- Not known for splashy signings, the Packers do look like they are ready to upgrade at one position on the market. Green Bay appears likely to look at the top safeties available, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler notes. Although several veteran safeties became street free agents due to recent cuts (Justin Simmons, Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs and Jordan Poyer among them), this saturated market does include two young guns that should be paid well soon. It would not shock to see the Pack pursue Xavier McKinney and Kamren Curl, Fowler adds. Both safeties are going into their age-25 seasons, which could separate them on a crowded market.
- The Panthers released Bradley Bozeman today, and while they will look for a center, expect a guard pursuit as well. This year’s market is big on guards, and The Athletic’s Joe Person writes the Panthers want to upgrade at a guard spot this offseason. Carolina lost both its starting guards — Brady Christensen, Austin Corbett — to major injuries last season, representing one of the many issues on offense in Bryce Young‘s rookie year. The team does not consider Ikem Ekwonu an option. Despite the 2022 first-rounder playing guard at points in college, ESPN.com’s David Newton indicates the new coaching staff is keeping him at left tackle.
- The Patriots are open to bringing back J.C. Jackson, according to Sportskeeda.com’s Tony Pauline. Jackson’s season ended early after the team placed the veteran cornerback on the reserve/NFI list. Should Jackson move past the mental health struggles that wrapped his first season back in New England, Pauline adds the team is open to another reunion despite last week’s release.
- Seeing a revolving door form at right tackle (Bobby Hart, Riley Reiff, La’el Collins, Jonah Williams) over the past four years, the Bengals want that to stop. They may be ready to take a two-pronged approach by adding a veteran and a potential rookie heir apparent. “We would like to have somebody man the right tackle spot for a number of years, yes,” player personnel director Duke Tobin said (via The Athletic’s Paul Dehner Jr.). “We’d like it to be a young guy that can come in and do that or a veteran that might have the opportunity to rebuild his career, something. But yes, we would like that to be manned on multiple fronts. But we’re focused with having it manned well enough to provide us a chance to win next year. That’s the No. 1 thing.” Williams is a free agent, and given the market he might have — as a chance to move to left tackle may await — it is unlikely the 2019 first-round pick is back in Cincinnati.
Suitors Emerging For Chiefs’ L’Jarius Sneed
MARCH 10: Add the Dolphins to the list of Sneed interested parties. Miami is not in good cap shape and may well lose both Christian Wilkins and Robert Hunt in free agency. But with the team cutting Xavien Howard, cornerback help will be sought. The Dolphins are believed to have looked into the prospect of acquiring Sneed, ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler notes.
MARCH 6: As expected, the Chiefs were among the teams which applied the franchise tag before Tuesday’s deadline, keeping L’Jarius Sneed off the free agent market in the process. The standout corner is far from certain to remain in Kansas City, though, as a tag-and-trade maneuver is on the table. 
Sneed has served as a full-time starter for nearly his entire Chiefs tenure (70 regular and postseason games), developing into a key member of the team’s vaunted secondary. The tag will cost $19.8MM in 2024, though, using up significant cap space on a team already needing a new deal for Chris Jones. The latter is the defending champions’ priority, and a re-up will not come cheaply. A long-term Sneed pact could also approach or reach the $20MM-per-year-mark his one-year tender is valued at.
Knowing Sneed could very well be on the trade block, Tyler Dragon of USA Today Sports reports seven teams have emerged as interested suitors. That list consists of the Vikings, Colts, Titans, Patriots, Lions, Falcons and Jaguars. Many of those teams are among those set to have the most spending power ahead of free agency and therefore the ones most capable of absorbing Sneed’s cap hit as it stands while working out a lucrative long-term deal.
Of course, teams like Minnesota, Indianapolis and Jacksonville could see sizable changes to their cap situations in the near future. The Vikings have two of the top pending free agents in Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter, and meeting the stated objective of retaining both will use up much of their cap space. The Colts and Jags, meanwhile, used the franchise tag on wideout Michael Pittman Jr. and edge rusher Josh Allen yesterday; long-term deals with either could lower their 2024 cap figures and free up room for an aggressive Sneed pursuit.
The Falcons – presumed to be a strong Cousins suitor – will likely wait until their quarterback addition has been made before authorizing a costly move (in terms of draft capital and finances) like a Sneed acquisition. New England and Tennessee rank second and third in respective cap space as things stand, meaning those teams could outbid other suitors and immediately make a deal for the 27-year-old a priority. Detroit reportedly has cornerback at or near the top of the organization’s offseason to-do list, so a Sneed trade would come as little surprise.
With respect to compensation, Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer predicts a second-round pick could be required to convince the Chiefs to green-light a trade. Losing an effective contributor will no doubt induce Kansas City to generate as many bidders as possible and land better draft capital than what a 2025 free agent departure would yield (a third-round compensatory pick the following year). With free agency one week away, it will be interesting to see how much of a market develops for Sneed if the Chiefs move forward with exploring a trade.
Patriots To Re-Sign WR Kendrick Bourne
Despite coming off an ACL tear, Kendrick Bourne has a deal in place before free agency. The Patriots still have the veteran wide receiver in their plans, agreeing to terms on a three-year deal, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Bourne, 28, has impressed in spurts with the Patriots; although his first contract produced an inconsistent tenure, the team still values the former 49er. The deal could pay up to $33MM. It is likely incentives comprise a sizable part of that number. Indeed, the Boston Herald’s Andrew Callahan reports Bourne is staying with the Pats for $19.5MM. Although it is not known how much of the deal is guaranteed, Callahan adds Bourne will receive a $4.2MM signing bonus.
It is a bit interesting Bourne’s October ACL tear did not result in a one-year deal — potentially so he could reset his market for 2025. Bourne signed a three-year, $15MM deal with the Patriots in 2021, and he has another three-year pact in place to build on what he accomplished. Bourne will be playing for a fourth Pats OC in four years, with Alex Van Pelt taking over. Even with this turnover, the organization continues to prioritize Bourne.
[RELATED: Patriots Re-Sign TE Hunter Henry]
As of late February, Bourne had not engaged in talks with the Pats. But the sides huddled up recently and hammered out a deal. The Pats had wanted to bring back Bourne and Henry; they accomplished both goals without needing to compete with other suitors on the open market. Henry fetched a bigger contract, but that should not surprise given this year’s tight end market and Bourne’s injury. Still, this represents a decent consolation prize for Bourne, who was playing well before his knee setback.
Known as a solid blocker in San Francisco, Bourne totaled 800 receiving yards in his first Patriots season. The Pats’ offense deteriorated swiftly after Josh McDaniels‘ 2022 exit, and Bourne appeared to fall out of favor with the team later that year. Bourne came up in trade rumors at each of the past two deadlines, as the Patriots tumbled into the rare position of potential seller. The team did not bite, keeping the likes of Kyle Dugger, Michael Onwenu and Josh Uche. The latter two are on track for free agency, but Dugger received the transition tag this week.
The Patriots still appear to be hunting for a bigger name to anchor their receiving corps. They are expected to pursue Calvin Ridley, who joins Marquise Brown and Gabriel Davis as the top WRs available following the tags of Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr. and Mike Evans‘ re-signing. The Pats signed JuJu Smith-Schuster for $16MM guaranteed last year, making it less likely he is moved this offseason. DeVante Parker, however, may be jettisoned via trade or release. But Bourne, who averaged a career-high 50.8 yards per game during a four-TD 2023 season, is staying put as a likely auxiliary weapon.
Broncos Trading WR Jerry Jeudy To Browns
Jerry Jeudy is heading to Cleveland. The Browns and Broncos have agreed to a deal for the wide receiver, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Denver will receive 2024 fifth- and sixth-round picks from Cleveland, per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. The deal will become official on Wednesday.
Jeudy has seemingly been involved in trade talks for more than a year, and we heard that the Broncos were actively fielding offers for the receiver prior to the trade deadline. Schefter notes that the Browns were among the teams that made a run at Jeudy last season, with NFL Network’s James Palmer noting that Cleveland’s front office previously thought the price was too high. The Broncos apparently reduced their demands, leading to today’s agreement.
According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, the front office recently indicated that they were “warming up” to trading Jeudy (and, at the same time, presumably dropping their asking price). According to Fowler, the Jets and Patriots were among the teams that also expressed interest in the receiver before he was dealt to the Browns.
The former first-round pick never developed into a top-end receiver during his time in Denver, although that was partly due to inconsistent play from the quarterback position. Jeudy followed up a solid rookie season with a disappointing sophomore campaign, but he seemed to bounce back in 2022. Jeudy finished that season with 67 catches for 972 yards and six touchdowns, leading to the Broncos picking up his fifth-year option.
However, after emerging as a trade candidate in 2022, the talks picked up steam in 2023. Jeudy was constantly mentioned alongside teammate Courtland Sutton in trade rumors, but the Broncos ultimately decided to hang on to both of their top receivers. Jeudy wasn’t able to follow up on his promising 2022 campaign, as the wideout finished 2023 with 54 catches for 758 yards and two touchdowns in 16 games (11 starts). He finished the season ranked 62nd on Pro Football Focus’ ranking of 128 qualifying wideouts.
With the Broncos moving on from Russell Wilson, the organization will be featuring a new-look offense in 2024. That divorce probably contributed to the organization’s decision to finally rip off the Jeudy band aid, but there were also financial reasons to move on from the former first-round wideout. The cash-strapped Broncos will clear around $13MM with the trade, as Jeudy’s fifth-year option was fully guaranteed.
Focus will now shift to Sutton, who will likely continue to be on the trade block. Marvin Mims will also be eyeing a larger role heading into 2024. As Palmer notes, Sean Payton has made it clear that he wants the 2023 second-round pick on the field, but the coach believed the wideout was being blocked on the depth chart by Jeudy. This trade should clear Mims up for a significant role next season.
Jeudy will now look to rehabilitate his value in Cleveland before hitting free agency next offseason. With the Browns having made a massive commitment to Deshaun Watson, Cleveland’s front office has done everything in their power to surround the QB with intriguing targets.
The team first traded a fifth-round pick to have Amari Cooper lead their depth chart, and they later swapped a second-round pick for a third-round pick in order to acquire Elijah Moore. The organization has once again looked to add a target without giving up significant draft capital, although their offensive hopes will still depend on Watson’s ability to return to his previous form.
CB Malcolm Butler Retires
After seven years in the NFL and attempts to extend his time in the league, Malcolm Butler has elected to end his career. The veteran cornerback confirmed Saturday that he has retired (video link via KPRC2’s Aaron Wilson). 
Butler most recently played in 2020, which marked the end of his three-year run with the Titans. He was released by Tennessee following that season, and his efforts to continue playing included a deal with the Cardinals. Before the start of the 2021 campaign, however, the former UDFA retired in a surprise decision, citing personal reasons.
He returned to NFL action the following summer, suiting up with the Patriots in the 2022 preseason. New England released Butler from injured reserve, paving the way for him to catch on with a new team. A Dolphins visit ensued, but the West Alabama product ultimately did not catch onto Miami’s roster or any other. Butler was healthy once again as of last February, but he will forego another attempt to find a role in favor of shifting his attention elsewhere.
Of course, Butler will best be remembered for his four-year tenure in New England to begin his career. That stretch was highlighted by the championship-clinching interception at the end of Super Bowl XLIX. Butler was a member of two title-winning Patriots squads (although his decorated playoff tenure with the team also includes the loss to the Eagles in Super Bowl LII, in which he unexpectedly played only a single special teams snap).
Now 34, Butler noted he is “satisfied” with his career, which spanned 112 regular and postseason games. He added he has a book planned for the near future amongst a number of post-playing endeavors. In addition to his two Super Bowl rings, Butler will exit the NFL with roughly $45MM in career earnings.
Teams Inquiring On Patriots’ Mac Jones
Mentioned at multiple offseason junctures as a live scenario, the prospect of a Mac Jones trade may be moving closer to reality. Although the Patriots may not be certain to stay at No. 3 and select a quarterback, their three-year starter is unlikely part of the 2024 plan.
On that note, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport indicates teams have been calling the Patriots as they work on gathering Jones intel this offseason. The Patriots sound receptive to the prospect of moving the former No. 15 overall pick. Trade compensation may be tricky, especially as a host of veteran options are available, but Jones’ 2024 rookie-deal salary will help on this front.
[RELATED: Patriots To Re-Sign TE Hunter Henry]
Jones is tied to a $2.79MM base salary for 2024. That is all an acquiring team would need to pick up if it decided to take a flier on the Alabama alum, who profiles as one of this year’s top players in need of a scenery change. A trade is seen around the NFL as the best option for Jones, and a February report pointed to the Pats being likely to seek a trade partner to unload the young quarterback.
Benched to close last season, Jones did not enjoy an optimal relationship with Bill Belichick. Despite Belichick’s exit, the Pats have a new offensive staff in place. They are expected to strongly consider a quarterback at No. 3 overall while being seen as likely to sign a veteran as well. This equation would not stand to leave a place for Jones, who could be appealing as a backup option elsewhere.
Jones is heading into his age-26 season and doing so on the heels of two down campaigns. The Patriots not replacing Josh McDaniels with a true offensive coordinator drew extensive scrutiny, and Jones — the Offensive Rookie of the Year runner-up to Ja’Marr Chase — was unable to put the pieces back together under Bill O’Brien last year. Jones closed the season on the bench, serving as New England’s third-stringer in Belichick’s finale.
The Jets are also trying to unload their underwhelming 2021 first-rounder, Zach Wilson, though that year’s No. 2 overall choice is tied to a pricier salary. The Patriots should have an easier time finding a Jones taker, but the return promises to be minimal considering how the past two years unfolded.
Patriots To Re-Sign TE Hunter Henry
10:10am: Henry’s second Patriots contract will be worth $27MM in total, per the Boston Herald’s Doug Kyed, who adds it will include $16MM fully guaranteed. Henry did not do quite as well as Schultz, who is two years younger, but this represents a nice third contract for a player trapped in some bad aerial attacks in recent years. Henry’s second Pats pact can max out at $30MM.
9:40am: The tight end market may not bring much of consequence this year. After Dalton Schultz agreed to stay with the Texans rather than hitting free agency again, the Patriots appear close to keeping Hunter Henry.
New England is working on a Henry deal, according to CBS Sports’ Josina Anderson. The sides have moved close to the goal line here, with NFL.com’s Mike Garafolo indicating the parties are finalizing an agreement. Henry played out a three-year, $37MM Pats deal, and despite the team making major changes this offseason, the former Chargers draftee remains in the Pats’ plans.
[RELATED: 2024 Top 50 NFL Free Agents]
This process is set to produce another three-year deal, Garafolo adds. While New England will need help at wide receiver soon as well, the team is planning to keep its three-year tight end starter as it transitions to another new play-caller. The parties have agreed to terms, and Henry will get to work in new OC Alex Van Pelt‘s scheme.
Although the Patriots’ offense spiraled in the two years following Josh McDaniels‘ departure, Henry was among the few bright spots. The ex-Philip Rivers target totaled 17 touchdown receptions on his previous contract, including nine in Mac Jones‘ rookie season. The Patriots are widely expected to have a new quarterback — perhaps via the No. 3 overall pick — and they will give that to-be-determined player an outlet option in Henry, who will not turn 30 until later this year.
Henry’s yardage totals decreased in each of his seasons with the Pats (603, 509, 419), but that can also be seen as a reflection of what happened to the team’s offense in this span. Even as the yards became harder to come by, Henry still provided the team with a quality red zone option. The 6-foot-5 pass catcher scored six touchdowns last season. Henry totaled back-to-back 600-yard seasons during his final two seasons in Los Angeles, but injuries limited him in each campaign. With the Pats, he shed the injury-prone label by missing only three games throughout his first three seasons in Foxborough.
The Schultz and Henry deals come as the Commanders (Zach Ertz) and Dolphins (Jonnu Smith) have made early strikes at the position. This effectively depletes the TE market for teams hoping to add pieces in free agency. This upcoming tight end draft class also does not match the buzz last year’s created. Noah Fant stands to be the top remaining option, and because of these early deals, the former first-round pick should do well next week. Gerald Everett, Colby Parkinson and likely one-and-done Patriot Mike Gesicki are among the other top receiving tight ends set to be UFAs.
Patriots Sign T Chukwuma Okorafor
MARCH 8: The Patriots are giving Okorafor a base value of $4MM on this deal, Field Yates of ESPN.com tweets. Okorafor will receive $3.13MM guaranteed at signing, the Boston Herald’s Doug Kyed adds. The contract will max out at $8.25MM, which is just below what the veteran tackle would have made in the final year of his Steelers contract. This also checks in slightly less than the contract New England gave Reiff a year ago.
MARCH 7: Entering the week in the top three in terms of cap space, the Patriots will add a tackle before the free agent market opens. They are bringing in recently released Steeler Chukwuma Okorafor, per NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport.
The Steelers cut Okorafor, 26, earlier this offseason, doing so after benching the veteran right tackle during the 2023 season. While the Patriots should be expected to do more at tackle in free agency, Okorafor provides an early option for a team that struggled to keep its tackles healthy in 2023. It will, however, be interesting to see how this agreement impacts Mike Onwenu‘s free agency.
Okorafor signed a three-year, $29.25MM deal with the Steelers in 2022, staying on as the team’s right tackle. Two years into the deal, the Steelers demoted the veteran starter for first-round pick Broderick Jones. Okorafor started only seven games, being pulled after unspecified comments he made during the end of the team’s loss to the Jaguars. The Steelers benched him for their Week 8 game, going with Jones, and never turned back to the six-year veteran against last year.
A former third-round Steelers draftee, Okorafor made 59 starts from 2018-23. He served as the team’s primary starter at right tackle from 2020 until the mid-2023 benching. A Week 1 injury to Zach Banner moved Okorafor into the Steelers’ 2020 lineup, and he started the final 15 games for the AFC North champions that year. The Western Michigan alum did well to collect a midlevel RT contract two years ago, and the Patriots are giving him a bounce-back opportunity.
Last year, the Patriots tried to patch up their right tackle spot by giving aging blocker Riley Reiff a lower-end pact and adding ex-Broncos swingman Calvin Anderson. Neither option worked, and Reiff lasted just one game during a season featuring two IR placements. The Pats then moved Onwenu from guard back to right tackle, where he played as a rookie. That move may well help Onwenu’s free agent status, with the tackle market not especially deep. The Pats are believed to still want to bring back Onwenu, though this Okorafor pact could conceivably affect those plans. The Pats are viewing Okorafor as a potential starter, per the Boston Herald’s Doug Kyed.
New England has needs at both tackle spots, with LT Trent Brown due for free agency and likely to depart, and may need a guard as well. It is possible the Patriots could view Onwenu as a guard and attempt to re-sign him as such, but the former sixth-round find is expected to at least test the market. Okorafor could become a likely cost-effective stopgap, though if that is the case, the Pats will be expected to devote more resources to their left tackle and guard posts.
2024 Top 50 NFL Free Agents
With the franchise tag application deadline in the rearview mirror, we have a clearer picture of who will be available in free agency. Barring 11th-hour deals, starting quarterbacks and a future Hall of Fame defensive tackle will drive the class in the 32nd year of full-fledged free agency in the NFL.
In addition to the Kirk Cousins–Baker Mayfield–Chris Jones trio, interior offensive linemen will cash in as part of this year’s crop. Last year’s tackle class was a bit deeper; this year, O-line dollars figure to be funneled inside.
The NFL’s legal tampering period, which gives players a window to speak with other teams and reach unofficial agreements, begins at 11am CT on March 11. The new league year opens two days later, though much of the frenzy will take place during the tampering period.
This list ranks free agents by earning potential, with guaranteed money serving as the general measuring stick. This is one of the great running back classes in free agency annals, but even though some of the RBs’ accomplishments far eclipse many of the players ranked above them, the position’s market has absorbed numerous hits. Older standouts, including potential Hall of Famers, not having the earning power they once did also factors into this equation.
Here is this year’s PFR top 50 free agents list, along with potential landing spots for each player.
1. Kirk Cousins, QB. Age in Week 1: 36
Cousins hitting free agency in his prime six years ago brought countless rumors about his value and future. Quarterback movement was less common then. Cousins made that foray count, scoring a landmark deal from the Vikings – a fully guaranteed three-year, $84MM pact. We are back here again because Cousins and the Vikings could not agree on a fourth extension, with the sides’ 2023 talks breaking down in part because Minnesota refused to provide guarantees into a third year. Cousins is coming off an Achilles tear, but given the need here, the 13th-year veteran is back atop a free agent value list.
Thanks to Cousins’ two-franchise tag path out of Washington in the late 2010s, the Vikings could not realistically tag their quarterback. No one has been tagged a third time since the 2006 CBA made doing so prohibitive. While the Vikings and Cousins have each expressed interest in a reunion, time is running out due to the structure of Cousins’ third Vikings contract. And a clear threat has emerged.
If Minnesota cannot re-sign Cousins before the start of the 2024 league year, $28.5MM in dead money will move onto the team’s 2024 cap sheet. Considering the dead cap awaiting and the Vikings holding the No. 11 overall draft slot, the team is in crunch time at quarterback. Minnesota will need to decide on perhaps one final contract with one of the NFL’s all-time financial mavens, and with Justin Jefferson interested in the team’s decision with the quarterback that helped him to a historic start, the NFC North club is navigating a layered process.
Never confused with a top-tier quarterback, Cousins has been in the league’s upper third for much of his career. The former Washington fourth-rounder had thrown 18 TD passes compared to five INTs before the Week 8 Achilles tear shut him down, finishing this productive stretch with Jefferson sidelined three games. QBR slotted Cousins seventh last season but rehabbing this injury in his mid-30s certainly will not make teams feel great about the offers required to win this derby. Still, this is the cost of doing business with above-average QBs.
Cousins has all of one Pro Bowl as a non-alternate, coming in 2022. Illustrating the value this position brings and Cousins having the upper hand on the Vikings in negotiations thanks to the fully guaranteed deal he landed in 2018, the Michigan State alum has made more than $231MM in his career. That number will almost definitely balloon past $300MM by 2025. Cousins has signed deals worth $28MM, $33MM and $35MM per year. Although Derek Carr scored a $37.5MM-AAV Saints pact and a practical guarantee of $70MM, Cousins’ consistency and financial shrewdness may still top that even near the end of his mid-30s.
Only Fran Tarkenton and Tommy Kramer have served as Vikings QB1s longer than Cousins, but Minnesota also must begin planning for the future. The team has seen Cousins and Jefferson form a dominant connection; Minnesota has also won just one playoff game since signing Cousins, failing to reach the postseason in three of his healthy years. If the Vikings pass and set their sights on the draft, who will make the payment?
Facing incomprehensible dead money due to the Russell Wilson extension going bust, the Broncos could certainly use Cousins as a bridge. Denver’s dead cap — $85MM over the next two years once Wilson is designated a post-June 1 cut — will make this signing difficult. The Broncos bowed out of the Cousins sweepstakes six years ago, signing Case Keenum; they may not have the resources to make a competitive bid now.
Cousins-to-Atlanta is producing enough smoke it is time to closely monitor this relocation; this reality would put Terry Fontenot’s skill-position draftees in better position to thrive, after Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder held them back. While Justin Fields odds pointed the Bears QB to Atlanta last week, it looks like the Falcons prefer a proving passing option. Hiring ex-Rams QBs coach Zac Robinson as OC, the Falcons appear the Vikings’ top threat if Cousins hits the tampering period unsigned.
Best fits: Falcons, Vikings, Broncos
2. Baker Mayfield, QB. Age in Week 1: 29
Were this an accomplishments-based ranking, Mayfield would not sniff this tier. Starting QBs in their primes get paid, as they rarely reach the market. Mayfield is not exactly a set-it-and-forget-it option, as this era has featured less QB patience than previous NFL periods. But he is being linked in the $35MM-per-year range. That marks a staggering transformation from 2023, when one team was willing to make the former No. 1 pick its starter favorite.
Mayfield turned down slightly more lucrative offers to vie against only Kyle Trask — after the Bucs passed on Will Levis, whom they brought in for a “30” visit — last year. The bet on a return to form in Dave Canales’ system paid off, though it is important to note how far the ex-Browns QB1 fell over the previous two seasons. Rumblings of a franchise-level extension — in the $30MM-plus-AAV range, when that number meant more — surrounded Mayfield’s 2021 offseason, which followed the ’20 Browns nearly upsetting the Chiefs in the divisional round. That remains Cleveland’s lone Round 2 playoff run since 1989. Had Mayfield built on the progress he showed in 2020, an alternate NFL reality — in which the Falcons have Deshaun Watson and the Bucs pursue a different post-Tom Brady stopgap — probably ensues. But the ’21 season tanked Mayfield’s stock, which had farther to fall in 2022.
An early-season injury to Mayfield’s non-throwing shoulder plagued him in 2021, and after the Browns’ unrefusable Watson offer led Mayfield to Carolina, horrid form keyed a last-place QBR finish in 2022. Mayfield’s 2023 QBR (54.3) trails his 2020 number (65.5), and the Bucs went from 3-0 to 4-7 to the divisional round. This rollercoaster ride provided a nice microcosm of Mayfield’s pro career, which also involved a steep 2019 dip due largely to Freddie Kitchens being overmatched as a head coach. But the inconsistency should matter here, to a degree.
If the Bucs let Mayfield hit the market, the statuses of Cousins and Justin Fields will be intertwined with his as teams without top-three draft real estate determine their options. It is not out of the question clubs could view Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew or Ryan Tannehill at a far lower price as a more cost-effective option than Mayfield. The Giants faced same question last year; was there a team willing to go to the $40MM-per-year place had Big Blue let Daniel Jones hit free agency? The Jones contract has likely come up in Mayfield negotiations, complicating the Bucs’ decision.
Mayfield established new career-high marks in TD passes (28) and yards (4,044). He also limited his INTs to 10 in Canales’ offense. The Bucs gave Mayfield input in their OC search, which produced ex-Rams OC Liam Coen, providing an obvious signal they do not intend to let him get away. The Bucs just made the playoffs with Brady’s $35.1MM void years-driven dead money on their payroll. While Mayfield’s deal would be backloaded, Tampa Bay would not see too much change here with Mayfield set to go from a $4MM base salary to likely beyond $30MM.
Geno Smith’s three-year, $75MM deal should serve as Mayfield’s floor, as it is the veteran-QB1 basement presently. But Smith agreed to Seahawks-friendly terms. A pay-as-you-go contract is unlikely here, with the Jones and Derek Carr deals respectively producing practical guarantees of $81MM and $70MM. Mayfield is also four years younger than Smith. Mayfield might not match Jones and Carr for AAV, but the Bucs will need to pay him more per year than they did Brady ($25MM).
Passing would make the Bucs start over from a poor draft slot to do so (No. 25), arming Mayfield’s camp with more leverage. The Vikings being unable to complete a deal with Cousins could make them a Mayfield suitor, and while the Patriots have quite a few connections to the former Heisman winner — including Eliot Wolf and OC Alex Van Pelt — it does not make too much sense for the Pats taking this route given the shape of their roster. With Fields and Cousins in the mix and the Steelers setting their sights lower, Mayfield’s options are still somewhat limited. That will play into the Bucs’ hands; both sides need to be careful here.
Best fits: Buccaneers, Falcons, Vikings
3. Chris Jones, IDL. Age in Week 1: 30
The Chiefs secured dynasty status after trading Tyreek Hill and, barring some playoff surges, missing on the Frank Clark contract. They have not paid cornerbacks during this stretch, highlighting the importance of Steve Spagnuolo’s centerpiece defender. (L’Jarius Sneed’s franchise tag, coming with heavy trade rumors, points to the Chiefs going in this direction again.) Patrick Mahomes and, especially over the past year, Travis Kelce receive most of the attention. Jones has been the clear third Chiefs pillar during this period, racking up five All-Pro honors and being the only pure defensive tackle in the sack era (1982-present) to record two 15-sack seasons.
Jones has also been durable, missing more than two games in a season just twice and suiting up for all but one contest during Kansas City’s back-to-back Super Bowl-winning campaigns. That makes the Chiefs’ defensive struggles in Week 1, during Jones’ holdout, notable. Rightfully asking for money in the Aaron Donald neighborhood, Jones bet on himself rather than accept a Chiefs offer that placed him on the same plane as less proven DTs — in the second tier that formed thanks to 2023’s Jeffery Simmons, Quinnen Williams, Daron Payne and Dexter Lawrence extensions. With Nick Bosa raising the defender ceiling to $34MM per year in September, Jones reaching $30MM AAV is in play on the open market. The Chiefs’ top priority is preventing Jones reaching free agency.
Kansas City franchise-tagged Jones in 2020, which always made a 2024 tag – at 120% of his pre-restructure 2023 salary, pushing the total past $32MM — unrealistic. Although Jones has said on multiple occasions he wants to stay in Missouri, the Chiefs’ negotiations last year created the risk of losing one of the best players in franchise history. From a pass-rushing standpoint, Jones has surpassed Donald (the current Donald version, that is) during the Chiefs’ back-to-back Super Bowl-winning years. He is three years younger than the Rams all-time great. Donald needed to threaten retirement to secure his landmark raise at 31; Jones reaching the open market healthy — in a year when a record cap spike occurred — effectively maximizes his leverage.
Javon Hargrave scored a $21MM-per-year pact; it took only $40MM fully guaranteed for the 49ers to land him. From an accomplishments and impact standpoint, Jones’ free agency is closer to Reggie White’s than Hargrave. White was 31 when his 1993 free agency tour commenced. Albert Haynesworth (2009) and Ndamukong Suh (2015) scored record-setting deals when they hit the market. Jones probably will not top Bosa’s AAV, but eclipsing the current DT guarantee high (Williams’ $66MM) seems likely.
The Chiefs have shown they can get by after losing corners; they have not shown they can win without Jones, who has made countless pivotal plays while rushing from inside and outside. The most recent led to a 49ers overtime field goal, which set up a championship-cementing Chiefs drive. Kansas City will need to make a monster offer to keep Jones off the market, but at this point, the champs must prepare to outbid other teams as their future Hall of Fame DT is less than a week away from testing the market.
Bears GM Ryan Poles was in Kansas City when the Chiefs drafted Jones in the 2016 second round, and Chicago is likely to restart its QB contract clock via a Caleb Williams pick soon. The Texans also have a rookie-QB contract (and Will Anderson on a rookie pact) around which Jones’ guaranteed years could be structured. With budgets increasing as of the recent cap news, teams could enter this bidding for one of the best defenders to ever hit free agency.
Best fits: Chiefs, Texans, Bears
4. Christian Wilkins, IDL. Age in Week 1: 28
The stars have aligned for Wilkins. From the Dolphins’ cap status to Justin Madubuike being franchise-tagged and the rest of the high-level D-tackles from Wilkins’ draft class being extended last year, the charismatic Clemson alum is about to reap the rewards of hitting free agency at this point. Excelling against the run and coming off his best pass-rushing season, the five-year veteran is likely to land a deal in the ballpark of those given to the rest of the 2019 first-round DT contingent. If the Chiefs re-sign Chris Jones, suddenly the player the Dolphins shied away from extending is the market’s top D-tackle prize.
Negotiations dragged on last summer, and other deals set the market. The Commanders extended Daron Payne in March, while the Titans reached an agreement with Jeffery Simmons in April. Dexter Lawrence followed in May, and the Jets hammered out their Quinnen Williams re-up just before training camp. Each pact was worth between $22.5-$24MM per year, creating a new second tier behind Aaron Donald’s outlier accord, and brought between $46-$47.9MM guaranteed at signing. This is a narrow range, making it a bit odd nothing was finalized. The Dolphins offered a top-10 DT salary, but that falls short of the Payne-Simmons-Lawrence-Williams range. It is possible the Dolphins also used 2019 first-round DT Ed Oliver’s deal, which came in lower ($17MM AAV, $24.5MM guaranteed at signing) as a comp in these talks. That would naturally introduce a complication.
A September rumor suggested the Dolphins were hesitant to go into the above-referenced price range due to Wilkins’ low sack output (11.5 sacks from 2019-22). He responded with a career year, tallying nine sacks — twice as many as his previous best — and 23 QB hits (10 more than his prior best). Wilkins finished 13th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate metric. This came after ESPN’s run stop win rate metric viewed Wilkins as a dominant presence, ranking him first in 2022 and second in 2021. Wilkins, who also deflected 15 passes from 2020-22, adding a pass rush piece will be valuable soon.
Residing in poor cap shape, the Dolphins already released Jerome Baker and Emmanuel Ogbah and are set to cut Xavien Howard. They have also paid two D-line pieces — DE Bradley Chubb, DT Zach Sieler — eight figures per year and have Jaelan Phillips presumably on the extension radar. Will Wilkins, acquired during Brian Flores’ first year, need to find his money elsewhere? Flores’ Vikings could be waiting.
Best fits: Texans, Vikings, Patriots
5. Jonathan Greenard, Edge. Age in Week 1: 27
Already a lower-profile franchise, the Texans saw their on-field work drift off the radar as their Bill O’Brien-run operation cratered and produced two subsequent HC one-and-dones. One of the players who was worth monitoring during this bleak period broke through to help Houston re-emerge under DeMeco Ryans. Greenard delivered a 12.5-sack season, leading the Texans in sacks by a wide margin and providing Will Anderson with a quality bookend.
A fringe tag candidate entering the offseason, Greenard had already tallied an eight-sack season (in 2021) before an injury-plagued 2022 stalled his early-career momentum. But last season brought new territory. Ranking 20th with 33 quarterback pressures, Greenard smashed his career-high with 22 QB hits. He ranked sixth among edge rushers in ESPN’s pass rush win rate metric in 2023. Reinvigorated in Ryans’ scheme, Greenard profiles as a player the Texans want to re-sign. But rumblings about his price will put Houston to the test. An AAV in the $22MM neighborhood could be in the offing for a player whose best work should still be ahead. Teams look eager to land Greenard.
Sitting in the top five in cap space and having Anderson and C.J. Stroud tied to rookie deals through at least 2025, the Texans can afford to make some investments elsewhere. They have begun doing so via the Dalton Schultz re-signing. Beyond its O-line, Houston’s cap sheet is light on big payments. Regularly stocking the roster with two-year deals at lower-middle-class rates, GM Nick Caserio has not gone to this financial territory to retain a player just yet. The Patriots would regularly let this type of player walk, as the Trey Flowers 2019 Detroit defection illustrates. The Texans’ Stroud and Anderson situations, however, support a re-signing.
Best fits: Texans, Commanders, Bears
