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Offseason Outlook: Carolina Panthers

March 2nd, 2016 at 9:54pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Cam Newton, QB: $19,500,000
  2. Charles Johnson, DE: $15,020,000
  3. Josh Norman, CB: $13,952,000 (franchised)
  4. Ryan Kalil, T: $10,329,000
  5. Jonathan Stewart, RB: $9,550,000
  6. Thomas Davis, OLB: $7,500,000
  7. Luke Kuechly, ILB: $6,000,000
  8. Greg Olsen, TE: $5,100,000
  9. Michael Oher, T: $4,500,000
  10. Graham Gano, K: $3,700,000
  11. Star Lotulelei, DT: $3,055,977
  12. Ted Ginn, WR: $2,775,000
  13. Ed Dickson, TE: $2,566,666
  14. Kurt Coleman, S: $2,184,375
  15. Dwan Edwards, DT: $2,100,000

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • No major changes.

Draft:

  • No. 31 overall pick
  • Owe sixth-round pick to Bears in deal for DE Jared Allen.

Other:

Overview:

After a 2014 season that saw the Panthers reach the postseason despite a sub-.500 record, many expected Carolina to regress even further, and a lack of faith in the club’s 2015 prospects wasn’t uncommon. Not a single PFR writer projected that the Panthers would earn a playoff berth in 2015 (in my own personal predictions, I estimated Carolina would finish last in the NFC South), as the Falcons and Saints generated much more positive outlooks.
Cam Newton (Vertical)

So for Carolina to finish with a 15-1 record and advance all the way to the Super Bowl was, in a massive understatement, unexpected. But finish nearly perfect they did, with the only blemish on the club’s regular season record coming in a tight Week 16 loss to the Falcons. Carolina bludgeoned its way through the NFC tournament, only to run into a stifling Broncos defense in the title game, ultimately losing 24-10.

The superlatives can be tossed in nearly any direction on the Panthers’ roster, but it all started with 2015 MVP Cam Newton, who posted the best season of his career and, with the help of a complex running scheme, led Carolina’s excellent offense. And as good as the offense was, the defense was perhaps even better, as Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis — aided by breakout stars Josh Norman and Kawann Short — headlined a unit that finished second in DVOA.

Credit is also due to head coach Ron Rivera and general manager Dave Gettleman — the Panthers have been hamstrung by salary cap problems for years, but the two decision-makers have found a way to cobble together a roster that works. The club still won’t have much cap space this offseason, and while Carolina won’t have to shop at the “dollar store” — Gettleman’s phrase — anymore, it still can’t afford to bring in too many high end options.

Key Free Agents:

Some clubs have a group of players who might compete for the moniker of “No. 1 internal free agent,” but in the Panthers’ case, there’s no such debate — cornerback Josh Norman‘s expiring contract is far and away the most pressing item on Carolina’s offseason docket. After reports indicated that little progress had been made in extension talks, the club placed the franchise tag on Norman, locking him in Carolina for one more season (unless another team is willing to part with two first-round picks). The Panthers are reportedly hopeful that they’ll be able to work out a long-term agreement with Norman before the July 15 deadline for extending franchise players.Josh Norman (Vertical)

When I examined Norman’s case for an extension back in November, I argued that he should be in line for the prototypical shutdown corner contract: $14MM per year, with more than $20MM in guarantees. Norman, at 28, is a bit older than a standard first-time free agent, and while the franchise tag will limit his ability to market himself to the league, I think that projection is still firmly within his reach.

The franchise tag will pay Norman $13.952MM in 2016 — if the Panthers were to franchise him in 2017, Norman would earn another $16.742MM (120% of his cap charge from the previous year). The total of those two figures — $30.694MM — should be Norman’s target in terms of guaranteed money in negotiations with Carolina. It may seem like a high number, but having reached the end of his contract without having agreed to a long-term deal, Norman holds a great deal of leverage.

Elsewhere in the secondary, veteran corners Charles Tillman and Cortland Finnegan are also headed for free agency. He just turned 35 years old, but Tillman started 12 games (and played decently) in 2016, and has made it clear he’ll only continue his NFL career with Carolina. A one-year – possibly minimum salary benefit – contract could make sense, but I’ll predict that Tillman ultimately retires. Finnegan, meanwhile, was brought in as more of a stopgap, and I don’t expect him to be retained.

At safety, Roman Harper has started all 32 games for Carolina over the past two seasons after joining the club on a low-cost deal prior to the 2014 season. He’s 33 now, and Pro Football Focus didn’t rate Harper’s play very highly in 2015, grading him as the No. 53 safety among 88 qualifiers. Harper will cost $900K against the Panthers’ 2016 salary cap thanks to a void provision in his contract, but I think the team will move on and possibly try to find a superior option through free agency or the draft.

Defensive tackle Kyle Love, something of an inspirational story given that he’s battled diabetes throughout his NFL career, seems to have finally found a home in Carolina after bouncing around the league for a few seasons. He played about 30% of the the club’s defensive snaps, teaming with Dwan Edwards to form nice backup rotation behind starters Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei. Those latter two players are about to get expensive, so retaining a key depth option like Love could be smart.

Let’s move to the offensive side of the ball, where wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery‘s numbers have been falling for three consecutive years. Even with Kelvin Benjamin lost for the season, Cotchery saw his role in the offense decrease, as he hauled in only 39 receptions for less than 500 yards. Benjamin will return in 2016, and with further development expected from Devin Funchess and Corey Brown, the Panthers can probably move from Cotchery as he enters his age-34 season.

2015 Pro Bowl fullback/running back Mike Tolbert is also a free agent, but it’s highly likely that he’ll return to Carolina, where he has spent the past four years of his career. Coming off a four-year contract during which he averaged $2.5MM annually, Tolbert could see a nice pay raise, albeit over a shorter term. The 30-year-old Tolbert recently said that he’d love to stay with the Panthers, but did allow that he would consider moving on.

Of the Panthers’ free agent offensive linemen, the only one who played more than 10% of the club’s snaps was Amini Silatolu, who did so while filling in at left guard for the injured Andrew Norwell. A second-round pick in 2012, Silatolu started 15 games during his rookie year, but has logged just 13 starts in the three years since. He’s still only 27, so Silatolu might look to latch on with a team where he has a better shot at returning to a starting role.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The elephant in the room for the Panthers this offseason is the status of veteran defensive end Charles Johnson, who is entering the final year of a six-year, $78MM deal he signed prior to the 2011 season. Johnson, hampered by a hamstring injury, was limited to just nine games last season, and played in something of a rotation, as he saw action on just over a third of Carolina’s snaps.Charles Johnson (Vertical)

The 29-year-old Johnson is scheduled to count $15.02MM against the Panthers’ salary cap, and all indications are that that figure is unpalatable for the club —the Charlotte Observer recently reported that Carolina will ask Johnson to accept a pay cut next season, and if he declines, he’ll face the possibility of release. The club would save $1MM in 2016 by cutting Johnson.

Depending on how steep a pay reduction the Panthers propose, I could see Johnson choosing to move on, figuring he could earn more on the open market. If Carolina wants to slash his pay by, say, 50%, and reduce his cap charge to $7.5MM, Johnson should definitely decline — he posted 8.5 sacks just one season ago, and reached double-digits in the two years prior, so it’s not as if he’s washed up. Since there would certainly be a market for Johnson’s services were he to become a free agent, he holds a bit of leverage over the team.

Besides Johnson, the Panthers don’t have a ton of other potential cap casualties, but if the team is looking to save a little money on the margins, defensive tackle Dwan Edwards could be on the chopping block. Carolina would only save $1.6MM by releasing Edwards, but he’s 34 years old, so the team could look for younger players to add to its interior rotation.

Positions Of Need:

Offensive line and wide receiver have been listed among the Panthers’ needs for what seems like a generation, and while Carolina could certainly use help in those areas — we’ll cover them a bit later — the three most pressing needs might be on defense.

Defensive end, specifically, is a position group that the Panthers will likely need to target this offseason. I expect Charles Johnson to decline a pay cut and ultimately be released, but even if he does stick around, Carolina needs to add more talent at end. Johnson would be entering the final year of his contract, and while Kony Ealy posted the game of his life in the Super Bowl, he hasn’t shown that level of production in the past.

So if merely adding depth at defensive end is the Panthers’ goal, they could enter the free agent market, and perhaps target someone like the recently-released Mario Williams. Obviously, Carolina won’t be able to pay Williams the $16MM per year he was earning in Buffalo (he’s not worth that amount, clearly), and other interested clubs could probably offer more. But Williams, who has never played in a postseason game, might be intrigued by the idea of joining a ready-made contender, albeit at a reduced priced. On the cheaper end of the scale, Wallace Gilberry is coming off an effective run as a rotational end in Cincinnati, and could be a nice backup piece, while former Jet/Dolphin Quinton Coples reportedly met with the Panthers this week.

If Carolina wants to add an end that will contribute both now and into the future, the team will look to the draft, and while it’s difficult to find a premier edge rusher at pick No. 31, there is no shortage of prospects who might be available. Bucky Brooks of NFL.com has the Panthers taking Georgia defender Emmanuel Ogbah in his most recent mock draft, while Michigan State’s Shilique Calhoun, Clemson’s Kevin Dodd, and Florida’s Jonathan Bullard could also be on the board.

In the secondary, safety is also an area of concern, especially if Roman Harper is not re-signed. At nearly every other position listed in this section, I think the Panthers would be fine combining draft picks with internal options, but to upgrade at safety, Carolina should take a hard look at using what cap space it has. The most obvious addition would be Eric Weddle — not only does he have a history with Ron Rivera and secondary coach Steve Wilks, but he’s indicated that he’d like to join a contending club. Tashaun Gipson, George Iloka, and Rodney McLeod could also be under consideration if the Panthers are willing to spend a little.

Cornerback is also a position that could be addressed, but perhaps is of less importance than perceived. With Josh Norman back in the fold, Bene Benwikere potentially moving to the outside, and Robert McClain around to play the slot, the Panthers can field a passable secondary. Still, it’s certainly an area where young talent wouldn’t hurt, and many observers, including Mel Kiper of ESPN.com and Daniel Jermiah of NFL.com, project Carolina to select a cornerback in the first round (Mackensie Alexander and Eli Apple being the choices).

Moving to the offense, right tackle has been a concern for the past few years, and Mike Remmers was disappointing in his first full season as a starter. But it sounds like Remmers — a restricted free agent — will return in 2016, and 2015 draft pick Daryl Williams could provide some competition. I doubt Dave Gettleman & Co. will spend money to add talent at this position, but a mid- or late-round draft pick could be in the cards.

As I noted, receiver is always listed among Carolina’s needs, but the group assembled last season — Ted Ginn Jr., Corey Brown, Jerricho Cotchery, and Devin Funchess — played pretty well, and lest we forget, Kelvin Benjamin, who posted more than 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie in 2014, will return from an ACL tear. Brenton Bersin, Stephen Hill, and Kevin Norwood haven’t contributed much in their short NFL careers, but further development is always possible. I don’t expect Cotchery back, but this is a cohort that can succeed, especially in a run-based offense with a talented quarterback like Cam Newton at the helm. The Panthers probably won’t be willing to add a receiver via free agency, but using a pick in the first two rounds — as they’ve done in consecutive seasons — is a possibility.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Kawann Short was a breakout star last season, posting 11 sacks from the interior, and grading as a top-10 defensive tackle per Pro Football Focus. Short, 27, is entering the final season of his rookie contract, and because he wasn’t a first-round pick (he was selected 44th overall in 2013), the Panthers don’t hold a fifth-year option on him for the 2017 season.Kawann Short (Vertical)

Short will easily be the top option among the 2017 class of free agent defensive tackles, so if he were to hit the open market, he’d be looking at a rather large payday. Since he holds so much leverage, there’s no reason that Short shouldn’t push for a deal that brushes the top of the market — Ndamukong Suh‘s massive Dolphins contract is an outlier, but Marcell Dareus and Gerald McCoy each received more than $95MM in total value. However, Dareus and McCoy did receive vastly different levels of guaranteed money ($43MM for Dareus versus just ~$15MM for McCoy), so that could be an area of negotiation for Short and the Panthers.

Carolina would probably balk at such an asking price given that Short has really only produced for one season, and if no deal can be reached by this time next year, Short could be a prime candidate for the franchise tag, with a likely cost of roughly $14MM. None of the Panthers’ other 2017 free agents would warrant the tag, and the option might force Short to take a bit less money.

Carolina’s other starting defensive tackle, Star Lotulelei, was selected in the first round, meaning the Panthers can control him — if they so choose — through the 2017 season via the fifth-year option. Lotulelei hasn’t been a star, and he really struggled in 2015, though his play could have been affected by a foot injury (he had surgery last January and dealt with complications in training camp, ultimately missing the first two games of the season). Carolina will surely exercise his option (price tag: ~$7MM), but with the team expected to prioritize an extension for Short, a long-term agreement for Lotulelei could be on the back-burner.

Safety Kurt Coleman was excellent in 2015, adding a stabilizing force in the back end of the Panthers’ secondary. He’s entering the final season of a two-year contract, and he’s set to count just over $2MM on this year’s cap. If Carolina wants to keep Coleman around past 2016, I wonder if they might extend him now and add a bit more guaranteed money to his ’16 base salary, thereby reducing the potential dead money down the line. Then again, Coleman has had a pretty up-and-down career, so perhaps the Panthers will want him to prove his worth again during the upcoming season.

On offense, left guard Andrew Norwell is extension-eligible after just two seasons instead of the standard three as a result of having been an undrafted free agent. He has made former second-rounder Amini Silatolu irrelevant, taking over on the inside and grading as the league’s eighth-best guard in 2016, per Pro Football Focus. Locking up Norwell, and, following this season, right guard Trai Turner, are important tasks in the effort to keep Cam Newton upright.

Overall Outlook:

In a league with such parity, it’s difficult to maintain a contending team, much less a dynasty. And while the Panthers probably aren’t at dynastic levels just yet, it’s not hard to see them getting there. Carolina has solid decision-makers, stable ownership, innovative coaches, young talent on both sides of the ball, and most importantly, a franchise quarterback. A fourth consecutive NFC South title looks almost inevitable, and a return trip to the Super Bowl — and a win, this time — is unquestionably the target for the 2016 Panthers.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: New York Jets

March 1st, 2016 at 10:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Darrelle Revis, CB: $17,000,000
  2. Muhammad Wilkerson, DE: $15,701,000 (franchised)
  3. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, T: $14,107,000
  4. Brandon Marshall, WR: $9,500,000
  5. Nick Mangold, C: $8,600,000
  6. Eric Decker, WR: $8,000,000
  7. Buster Skrine, CB: $7,750,000
  8. David Harris, ILB: $7,500,000
  9. Breno Giacomini, T: $5,625,000
  10. Marcus Gilchrist, S: $5,625,000
  11. James Carpenter, G: $5,575,000
  12. Leonard Williams, DE: $4,234,288
  13. Dee Milliner, CB: $4,028,532
  14. Nick Folk, K: $3,343,333
  15. Sheldon Richardson, DE: $3,199,000

Notable coaching/front office moves:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

Last offseason, the Jets overhauled their front office and made sweeping changes on the sidelines. After some bad decisions by John Idzik and a few disappointing performances that weren’t necessarily Rex Ryan‘s fault, both men were shown the door in favor of new GM Mike Maccagnan and head coach Todd Bowles.

The Jets raised eyebrows when they fired the defensive-minded Ryan only to replace him with another defensive coach in Bowles. The 51-year-old became the Jets’ sixth straight head coach with a defensive background, following in the footsteps of Ryan, Eric Mangini, Herm Edwards, Al Groh, and Bill Parcells. That may seem like an exceptionally long time to emphasize defense, but one can hardly blame Gang Green for being wary of going back to an offensive-minded HC after two dreadful years with Rich Kotite.

Ryan’s exit was supposed to mean less fodder for the New York tabloids to run with, but that wasn’t the case after presumptive starting quarterback Geno Smith got into a skirmish with defensive end IK Enemkpali. Smith’s wired-shut jaw opened the door for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who wound up having a stellar season under center. After an up-and-down start to the year, the Jets found themselves at 5-5 heading into Week 11. From there, Gang Green went on a tear, taking out the Dolphins, Giants, Titans, Cowboys, and Patriots. Unfortunately, they succumbed to the Bills in the season finale and failed to earn a postseason berth, but the Jets showed plenty of promise in 2015.

What can the Jets do to get over the hump this year? Let’s take a look:

Key Free Agents:Ryan Fitzpatrick (Vertical)

The Jets’ list of noteworthy free agents begins with journeyman quarterback turned surprise MVP candidate Ryan Fitzpatrick. In his first season in New York, Fitzpatrick had the best performance of his career, passing for nearly 4,000 yards and 31 touchdowns against just 15 interceptions. After earning just $3.25MM last season, the 11-year veteran should be in line for a healthy raise, and could garner roughly $10MM per season. For months now, there has been an expectation that the Jets and Fitzpatrick would strike a deal before he becomes an unrestricted free agent, but with the new league year right around the corner, the two sides have yet to reach an agreement.

If Fitzpatrick is not signed by the start of free agency, he’ll be one of the most popular offensive free agents available. That’s a far cry from where the 33-year-old’s value was this time last year — at that time, the Jets brought Fitzpatrick aboard as a Plan B in case Geno Smith couldn’t cut it under center. As it turns out, Smith never got his chance to shine due to circumstances out of his control.

Although Fitzpatrick looks like a hot commodity, his value is still difficult to pin down. On one hand, Fitzpatrick guided the Jets offense extremely well in 2015 and talent at the quarterback position is scarce. On the other hand, some would argue Fitzpatrick represents a decent transitional option at best, and pessimists could point to his solid campaign as a fluke. For the Jets, the bottom line is this: Fitzpatrick is the best option they have and they simply can’t afford to let him go. A two-year deal with a $16-$18MM value would be ideal for Gang Green, but the club may have to go a little higher than that to retain its starting QB.

The Jets and Muhammad Wilkerson have been butting heads over a new contract for ages and while there’s no long-term resolution on that situation yet, that resolution appears likely to come at some point this year. Gang Green has applied the non-exclusive franchise tag, worth $15.7MM, to Wilkerson, ensuring that he won’t become an unrestricted free agent.

Wilkerson, 26, enjoyed his best season as a pro in 2015, racking up a career-high 12 sacks and forcing three fumbles, to go along with 64 tackles. Arguably the best defensive player for the Jets last season, Wilkerson also earned his first Pro Bowl berth. While Wilkerson’s performance showed he was worthy of the franchise tag, the Jets have two other talented defensive ends on their roster, in Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams, so carrying Wilkerson with a $15MM+ cap number is something of a luxury.

Although Wilkerson is technically still a free agent who has the ability to sign an offer sheet with another team, it’s unlikely that any club will give up two first-round picks to sign him away from the Jets. It’s more likely that an interested suitor would approach New York about a potential trade, which would allow that club to potentially land Wilkerson for less compensation, while still giving the Jets something in return for letting him go. Wilkerson’s situation will be worth keeping a close eye on this offseason, since there’s some skepticism that he, Richardson, and Williams are all in the Jets’ long-term plans.

Damon Harrison (vertical)Of course, Wilkerson isn’t the only standout Jets defensive lineman eligible for free agency this winter, and the D-line could become even more crowded if the club re-signs Damon Harrison. “Snacks” is a tremendous run-stopping defensive tackle, and interest in a new deal appears to be mutual.

For the last few years, the advanced metrics at Pro Football Focus have been very high on the 27-year-old’s work. In 2015, Pro Football Focus (sub. req’d) gave Harrison a 91.9 overall grade, placing him as the seventh-best interior defensive lineman in the NFL. Harrison played in only half of Gang Green’s snaps, but he is incredibly vital to the Jets’ 3-4 front and could get big bucks from another club looking for a tough, physical nose tackle. As a result, the Jets’ best chance to retain Harrison might be to work out a long-term deal prior to the start of free agency.

Running back will be a key position for the Jets as the free agent period approaches, since three of the team’s backs – Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell, and Stevan Ridley – will be eligible to become unrestricted free agents. Out of that trio, Ivory has been the most productive, earning his first Pro Bowl nod in 2015 after he ran for 1,070 yards and seven touchdowns.

However, that performance may have lined up Ivory for a contract worth a little more than the Jets are willing to spend. While Ivory may return, Powell looks like the most probable candidate to re-sign with the team — Gang Green probably won’t want to pencil him in as the No. 1 back on the depth chart heading into 2016, but he has averaged a solid 4.0 yards per carry over the course of his career, and has displayed an ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, racking up a career-high 47 receptions in 2015. If the price is right, Powell could return as a third-down back who occasionally gets early-down work as well.

For the last five years, outside linebacker Calvin Pace has been a staple of the Jets’ linebacking core. However, this may be the offseason where it all comes to an end for the Ryan-era holdover. In 2015, Pace appeared in all 16 games for Gang Green but saw his numbers drop across the board, and his 21 tackles and three sacks pale in comparison to his best work in previous seasons. Considering he’ll turn 36 later this year though, the odds are against a strong bounce-back season for Pace in 2016, and if the Jets do bring him back, it’s unlikely to be in a starting role.

Demario Davis is another linebacker whose days as a Jets starter appear numbered. Davis saw the majority of the inside linebacker snaps alongside David Harris in New York last season, but he’s not the kind of standout defender that the club should rely on going forward. A recent report suggested that the Jets would likely let Davis reach the open market, where he’ll probably land an offer worth more than what New York is willing to put on the table.

While Davis may not be in the Jets’ plans, the team could bring back another free agent inside linebacker, Erin Henderson. After missing the 2014 season due to off-field issues, Henderson wasn’t a real contributor on defense for the Jets until late in the 2015 campaign, but he was solid down the stretch, and if the club can bring re-sign him to an inexpensive, short-term deal, he should make good on the investment.

Safety Antonio Allen and defensive linemen Stephen Bowen and Leger Douzable are among the other Jets part-time defenders who could depart this offseason in free agency. None of those players would be bad signings on minimum-salary contracts, but the Jets probably won’t spend much more than that to retain any of them, since they’re unlikely to be relied upon for major roles going forward.

The same could perhaps be said for veteran guard Willie Colon and tight end Kellen Davis on the offensive side of the ball. Colon has started 38 games for the Jets in his three seasons with the team, but injuries limited him to just six contests in 2015, and he’s nearing his mid-30s, so he shouldn’t be counted on as more than a depth piece. As for Davis, he saw a surprising amount of snaps for the Jets last season, but he was primarily used as a blocker, catching just three balls. We’ll see if the team liked him enough to re-sign him with Jace Amaro set to return from a season-ending injury.

Finally, the Jets will likely retain at least two of their restricted free agents, who have proven to be solid contributors. Punter Ryan Quigley figures to be tendered at the lowest rate, and the fact that the RFA tender is non-guaranteed could allow the Jets to bring in some competition for him if they so choose. Wide receiver Kenbrell Thompkins could also get a tender offer after grabbing 17 balls in his seven games with the Jets last season. Tight end Zach Sudfeld is a longer shot to be tendered after missing the 2015 season due to a torn ACL.

Possible Cap Casualties:Jeremy Kerley

Just a few months before he lost his job, former Jets GM John Idzik made one of his more questionable roster moves, signing wide receiver Jeremy Kerley to a four-year, $16MM contract which included more than $5MM in guaranteed money. The timing of the extension, which was consummated in October 2014, was a little unusual, since the Jets had just acquired Percy Harvin in a mid-season trade and Idzik’s job was hanging in the balance.

A year and a half later, that extension looks even worse. Kerley has caught just 32 balls in 25 games since putting pen to paper, and now that he has no more guaranteed base salaries, it may be time for the Jets to cut him loose. Releasing Kerley would create just $1.3MM in cap savings, since he still has a total of $1.8MM in dead money on the contract, but if he’s not in the team’s plans, it makes sense to pull the trigger sooner rather than later.

The same can be said of tight end Jeff Cumberland, whose role was significantly reduced under the Jets’ new regime last season. After recording between 23 and 29 receptions in each season from 2012 to 2014, Cumberland caught only five passes on 14 targets in 2015. The Jets can clear the tight end’s entire $1.9MM cap charge from their books by cutting him, so it would be a surprise if they didn’t make that move.

On the offensive line, tackles D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Breno Giacomini have a combined cap hit of nearly $20MM, with Ferguson’s $14.107MM charge making up the majority of that total. The Jets could save almost $13.5MM by cutting both players, but I won’t be shocked if the club keeps both players around. Having said that, Maccagnan probably has enough leverage to ask Ferguson and/or Giacomini to take pay cuts if the team is unhappy with their performances. In Ferguson’s case, in particular, the Jets could create a few million dollars in cap savings without cutting significantly into the veteran’s potential 2016 earnings.

On a smaller scale, kicker Nick Folk is a candidate to have his deal reworked. A quad injury ended Folk’s season prematurely, and while it’s probably not the sort of injury that will have an impact on his 2016 performance, he’s on track for a cap hit of $3.343MM. If the Jets feel like that figure is too high, the team could encourage him to revisit his contract or risk having to battle for his job in training camp.

Positions Of Need:

The Jets will, obviously, have a major hole to fill at quarterback if they can’t work something out with pending free agent Ryan Fitzpatrick. But it would be a huge surprise if the two sides don’t agree to a deal, so we can assume for the time being that the Jets will be set at QB.

The same can’t be said at running back though, where No. 1 option Chris Ivory could walk in free agency. If the Jets can re-sign Bilal Powell, he and Zac Stacy look like good second and third options on the depth chart, but the club wouldn’t have a workhorse to lean on.

Assuming Ivory does leave, it’s likely a signal that the Jets won’t spend big on the position, which would rule out free agents like Doug Martin and Lamar Miller. Using a mid-round draft pick on a running back would make some sense, but it’s possible the Jets will want to devote those picks to adding depth on the offensive line or on defense, so it will be interesting to see how the team addresses the RB position.

One potential wild card? If the Texans release Arian Foster, keep in mind that Jets GM Mike Maccagnan worked in Houston’s front office for 15 years, and was the club’s coordinator of college scouting when Foster was drafted. The veteran running back likely wouldn’t break the bank if teams are scared off by his injury history.

Another potential target worth considering is Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott. I don’t know that spending a first-round pick on a running back is the best use of the Jets’ resources, but if the team hasn’t addressed the position by that point in the offseason, and Elliott is still on the board at No. 20, it’s certainly worth considering, since he has the talent to be a difference-maker on offense.

In Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, the Jets have two reliable pass-catchers, and Jace Amaro‘s return should give the team a viable third option. If Jeremy Kerley and Jeff Cumberland are cut, and Kellen Davis departs in free agency, adding a slot receiver or a second tight end could become priorities for the team. Still, there are some promising in-house options to replace Kerley, including Quincy Enunwa and Kenbrell Thompkins, and tight end isn’t a spot where the Jets figure to devote significant resources. Cumberland and Davis, the team’s top two TEs in 2015, combined for just eight receptions, as Fitzpatrick looked elsewhere on most of his drop-backs.

Outside of running back then, the Jets’ top priority on offense will be on the line, where D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold are getting older, and Breno Giacomini and Brian Winters are question marks. Guard James Carpenter had a nice season in 2015, but he looks like the only starter the Jets can realistically rely on for the next few seasons. Pro Football Focus ranked the Jets’ line as the NFL’s 26th-best in 2015, so an influx of both talent and youth up front would be a boon for the franchise.

Addressing the offensive line in the draft makes sense for the Jets, but it may be tricky to find a good value in the first round, at No. 20. The team can’t count on a tackle like Ronnie Stanley or Jack Conklin to slip that far, and it may be a little high to take an interior lineman. If the Jets can land a first-round pick in a trade involving Muhammad Wilkerson, their draft prospects change, but that’s probably a long shot. For now, it may make more sense for the team to explore second-tier free agents and eventually spend a couple Day 2 or 3 picks on linemen. New York may not find a star with that approach, but adding solid depth and creating competition is important, especially in the event that the club’s incumbent options struggle or go down with injuries.

If the Jets target interior linemen on the open market, there are a couple good options in Houston that Maccagnan is very familiar with — guard Brandon Brooks and center Ben Jones are among the most promising free agents at their respective positions, and each player is just 27 years old this year. At tackle, I don’t expect the Jets to make a big splash for a top-tier free agent, but perhaps the team goes after someone like Bobby Massie, Bradley Sowell, or Don Barclay. All three of those players have starting experience, are still in their 20s, and have a connection to either Jets head coach Todd Bowles or offensive line coach Steve Marshall.

On the defensive side of the ball, the line shouldn’t be an issue unless Wilkerson is traded and Damon Harrison signs elsewhere. In Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams, the team still has two foundational pieces up front, but if the club has to replace Harrison with a lesser nose tackle and decides to move Wilkerson, it’s not nearly as strong a group.

Still, while the Jets’ approach to the defensive line will hinge on whether or not certain players return, the linebacker position should be a priority even if all of the club’s free agents return (which is unlikely). David Harris isn’t going anywhere at inside linebacker, and Lorenzo Mauldin flashed enough promise at outside linebacker in his rookie season that he should have a major role there going forward, but the team could use another starter at both spots, even if Erin Henderson and Calvin Pace re-sign.

Once again, the No. 20 overall pick figures to provide some intriguing options if the Jets opt for a linebacker. There’s a chance that that inside linebacker Reggie Ragland and outside linebackers Leonard Floyd and Darron Lee could be on the board when the Jets are on the clock in the first round, and each of those prospects would look good in green.

I imagine the team will target a player who can contribute immediately, but depending on just how scary his medical records look, Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith – who was in the running for the No. 1 pick before he suffered a major knee injury – will be awfully intriguing. With the draft still nearly two months away, it’s hard to know how far Smith will fall due to his knee and ankle issues. At this point, it still seems plausible that he could be off the board by the time the Jets pick in the first round, or that he could still available for New York in round two or three.

Given the Jets’ willingness to continue leaning on a player like Pace well into his mid-30s, I wonder if the team might be open to targeting free agent linebackers who are on the wrong side of 30. The Chiefs have a couple interesting candidates in OLB Tamba Hali and ILB Derrick Johnson, who are 32 and 33, respectively. And recently-released inside linebackers DeMeco Ryans and James Laurinaitis could be good fits in New York. If the Jets prefer someone a little younger and don’t want to shop in the premium section for a player like Bruce Irvin or Danny Trevathan, then I could see the team kicking the tires on free agents like O’Brien Schofield, Rolando McClain, Shea McClellin, and Sam Acho.

In the secondary, the safety position looks fairly stable, with Marcus Gilchrist and Calvin Pryor capable of starting, and Dion Bailey perhaps set to take on an increased role as the third man on the depth chart. However, with Antonio Cromartie no longer in the mix, the cornerback position will probably need to be addressed.

The Jets figure to give cornerbacks like Marcus Williams, Buster Skrine, and Dee Milliner the opportunity to compete for significant playing time, but it’s a little risky to rely on any of those players as a full-time starter opposite Darrelle Revis. There’s plenty of cornerback depth on the free agent market this winter, so even if the Jets prefer not to splurge on a top-tier option like Janoris Jenkins, Sean Smith, or Prince Amukamara, they should be able to add a steady veteran. Leon Hall, Patrick Robinson, William Gay, and Kyle Wilson are among the players that could fit that bill.

On special teams, the Jets’ outlook remains somewhat uncertain, with punter Ryan Quigley facing restricted free agency and kicker Nick Folk carrying a high cap number. Both players could very well be back, but it wouldn’t cost much to bring in some camp competition at both positions.

Sheldon Richardson (vertical)Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Having franchised Muhammad Wilkerson, the Jets will now have until July 15th to work out a multiyear deal with him. Ultimately, the odds of the Jets figuring something out with Wilkerson could hinge on how high the team is in Sheldon Richardson, who is also a candidate for a new deal. It seems extremely unlikely that New York will invest heavily in both players, whose skill sets overlap too much to give them both $100MM contracts.

All indications are that the Jets prefer Richardson’s on-field potential to Wilkerson’s over the long term, but Richardson’s off-field troubles complicate the issue. Further run-ins with the law and/or violations of NFL policies could result in serious discipline for Richardson, who missed four games last season due to a substance-abuse suspension. The Jets will have to be awfully confident those problems are behind him if they’re going to sign him to a mega-deal.

Considering the club holds a fifth-year option on Richardson for the 2017 season, it wouldn’t be surprise if Maccagnan and company put off extension talks for both defensive ends for a little while longer, reassessing the situation after the 2016 season. If Richardson is a model citizen between now and then, the Jets could more comfortably choose to extend him rather than Wilkerson.

Meanwhile, depending on how heavily the Jets choose to be involved in free agency, the team may need to restructure a few contracts to create some cap flexibility. If possible, New York should avoid adjusting Darrelle Revis‘ deal, since pushing more dead money onto the later years of that pact will make it an albatross, particularly if his performance continues to decline (he was good, but not great, during his first year back with the Jets).

Brandon Marshall, Nick Mangold, and David Harris look like more logical candidates for restructures, if the club goes in that direction. Their cap hits range from $7.5MM to $9.5MM, and none of their contracts feature any dead prorated bonus money, meaning the future ramifications of a restructure would be minimal.

Overall Outlook:

The Jets had a strong first season under new general manager Mike Maccagnan and head coach Todd Bowles, and two big offseason additions played a big role in that success — acquiring quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and wide receiver Brandon Marshall only cost the Jets two late-round draft picks, and the two veterans were arguably the team’s best offensive players, making a more substantial impact than the team’s higher-profile free agent signings.

With so many players facing free agency this offseason, and without a huge amount of cap flexibility to retain them all, Maccagnan may have to strike gold with a couple roster moves once again this winter. The Jets can’t afford to go on another spending spree in free agency, and the team has the lowest draft pick of any non-playoff club, so adding premium talent will be tricky. In his first offseason, Maccagnan took advantage of the copious amount of cap room John Idzik left behind, but the GM’s second winter in New York will provide greater challenges, and it will be fascinating to see how he tackles them.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2016 NFL Franchise/Transition Tag Players

March 1st, 2016 at 3:12pm CST by Luke Adams

The deadline to designate franchise or transition players for 2016 has now passed, and 10 players received tags, which represents a modest increase over the last couple offseasons. Here’s a breakdown of the action:

Franchise players (exclusive):NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Franchise players (non-exclusive):

Transition players:

Candidates who didn’t receive tags:

Players who received franchise or transition tags can sign those one-year tenders, if they so choose — signing a tender ensures that it can’t be rescinded by a player’s team. Tagged players can also negotiate long-term agreements with their own teams anytime before July 15th.

With the exception of Von Miller, who got an exclusive franchise tag, tagged players can sign offer sheets with an outside suitor once free agency officially begins next week, as long as they haven’t yet signed their franchise or transition tender. If any tagged player signs an offer sheet with a new club, his current club would have five days to match that offer.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Vikings

February 29th, 2016 at 10:11pm CST by Sam Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Mike Wallace, WR: $11,500,000
  2. Matt Kalil, T: $11,096,000
  3. Adrian Peterson, RB: $11,000,000
  4. Everson Griffen, DE: $8,200,000
  5. Phil Loadholt, T: $7,750,000
  6. Kyle Rudolph, TE: $7,300,000
  7. Linval Joseph, DT: $6,350,000
  8. John Sullivan, C: $5,833,333
  9. Harrison Smith, S: $5,278,000
  10. Brian Robison, DE: $5,250,000
  11. Captain Munnerlyn, CB: $4,583,334
  12. Brandon Fusco, G: $4,050,000
  13. Anthony Barr, OLB: $3,475,526
  14. Shaun Hill, QB: $3,250,000
  15. Trae Waynes, CB: $2,941,901

Notable coaching/front office moves:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

The Vikings took the next step in a quick rebuild and clinched their first NFC North championship since the Brett Favre-led 2009 squad secured the title en route to the conference title game. Blair Walsh‘s missed 27-yard field goal in the final seconds of Minnesota’s Wild Card game concluded the team’s march and presided over the Vikes’ accomplishments in the eyes of many, but judging by where the team was when Mike Zimmer was hired in 2014, the ex-Bengals DC’s second season in Minneapolis was a rousing success.

Most of the players responsible for the Vikings’ 11-5 campaign will return; Minnesota doesn’t face the kind of free agency gridlock some of its playoff-qualifying brethren are encountering as the 2015 league year concludes.NFL: Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams

Adrian Peterson‘s threats of not playing for the Vikings again, or trade demands that never materialized, are in the past now. The running back remains the team’s offensive centerpiece despite venturing into his age-31 season. Peterson’s three rushing titles are the most since Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith each finished with four between 1990-97. The Vikings’ workhorse back winning rushing crowns seven years apart also matches Sanders, who led the league in ground gains in 1990 and 1997. Peterson earned this honor on the fewest carries of his three NFL-leading seasons, at 327, but even though he was a healthy inactive essentially for 15 games in 2014 – preserving his body to some extent – All Day’s workloads should be monitored at his age.

The Vikings’ aerial attack, however, did not take flight, with Teddy Bridgewater failing to build on the promise he showed as a rookie. Bridgewater threw just 14 touchdown passes and largely operated like a low-level game manager in the Peterson-fueled offense.

Stefon Diggs looks to have carved a spot in Minnesota’s starting lineup going forward, while trade acquisition Mike Wallace sputtered and may well have punched a ticket out of the Twin Cities. Injuries on the offensive line emerged again, but Joe Berger enjoyed a standout slate filling in for John Sullivan. Rookie T.J. Clemmings didn’t exactly lock down the right tackle job for the future did receive 17 starts worth of seasoning in place of Phil Loadholt. A longtime backup, Berger graded as Pro Football Focus’ second-best center and best run-blocking snapper.

Defensively, Minnesota finished in the middle of the pack but had to compensate for injuries to their best three defenders in Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith, who combined to miss nine games. All three were PFF marvels, with Smith ranking as the analytics site’s best safety — by far — and Joseph’s standout season slotting in behind only Aaron Donald and J.J. Watt among interior defensive linemen. A dynamic talent who has displayed elite abilities in pass rush and coverage, Barr rated only behind Luke Kuechly among non-rush linebackers.

These three are under contract for 2016, with Barr and Joseph signed through 2018, pending the Vikings eventually picking up the outside backer’s fifth-year option. Joseph’s contract in particular looks like a bargain. The 27-year-old’s the ninth-highest-paid 4-3 defensive tackle at $6.25MM per season, signing his deal a year before Ndamukong Suh and Marcell Dareus inked accords paying them $19.06MM and $15.85MM per year, respectively.

Despite only finishing with the NFL’s 14th-best defensive DVOA, the Vikings have a strong defensive core around which to build.

Key Free Agents:

Most of the Vikings’ key expiring contracts come on defense, but none of the team’s potential defectors are impact players at this point.

Chad Greenway (Vertical)Arriving in the 2006 first round, Chad Greenway is the longest-tenured Viking. The former Iowa standout’s started 135 games in his career, including 12 last season, but is the least important of the team’s starting backers at this point and wouldn’t warrant any kind of significant investment on a team with needs elsewhere. Greenway’s said he’d like to re-sign with the Vikings, and Zimmer believes he’ll be back. But it would likely be a one-year pact for the 33-year-old, so the team needs to line up a successor either way.

Safety Robert Blanton enjoyed an above-average 2014 season as a starter, but fellow UFA Andrew Sendejo beat him out for the job last season. The latter, however, was the fourth-worst full-time safety in the league in 2015, in PFF’s view. Neither is worthy of much investment going forward. Minnesota will probably look elsewhere to add talent to further accentuate Smith’s elite skills.

The Vikings’ decision on Mike Harris should warrant more consideration. A 16-game starter for the first time, Harris delivered a quality season at right guard. Playing two seasons in Minnesota, the 27-year-old Harris helped hold together a line that endured staggering losses. Harris possesses versatility as well, having seen extensive time at tackle and guard, and will make for an interesting free agent as a result. The Vikings are already paying Brandon Fusco $4.85MM per season as one of the team’s four offensive linemen playing on a second or third Minnesota contract. A Harris accord may not cost quite that much, but after what he showed last season, he won’t be too much cheaper.

Terence Newman played well over his one-year contract and could be brought back. But the No. 5 overall pick in 2003 would be the oldest defensive back in the game next season — and possibly its oldest defensive player should James Harrison opt to retire — if he chooses to play again, turning 37 before the season starts.

The Vikes have invested well at cornerback, with two first-rounders, Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes, expected to start or see extensive time together next season. Captain Munnerlyn, PFF’s top Minnesota corner last season, is set for the final season of his three-year contract as well. This won’t rule out a Newman re-up, as he won’t cost much and will likely be available on a one-year pact, but there are other options out there. Zimmer’s former protege in Cincinnati, Leon Hall, could be a target, with the Bengals having invested even more than the Vikings at corner and Hall looming as a 31-year-old UFA.

Kenrick Ellis served as decent depth, but the Vikings are well-stocked on their defensive interior. Another team in need of a potential starter could easily pry away the former Jets third-round pick.

These being Minnesota’s biggest free agents illustrates the solid footing on which the Vikings currently stand. Determining the futures of these UFAs are far from the biggest decisions the team must make this offseason.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Vikings have some options, devoid of financial repercussions, to shed extensive salary if they so choose.

Mike Wallace currently has the team’s highest cap charge for 2016. However, it’s highly unlikely he’ll enter the season with this status, and it’s very possible the deep threat could be looking for a fourth NFL employer soon. Rick Spielman is planning to meet with Wallace’s agent this week in hopes of convincing him to take a pay cut. This strategy didn’t take in Miami, eventually forcing the trade that sent him north, but Wallace may be more receptive this time around considering the season he just compiled.

Wallace, who will turn 30 this August, is coming off by far his worst slate, catching just 39 passes for 473 yards (283 fewer than his previous career-low figure). The former third-round pick can probably still be a productive receiver; he snared at least five touchdown passes and gained no fewer than 756 yards in his first six seasons. But accepting a pay reduction will almost certainly be his only path back to the Vikings.

Wallace has no guaranteed money left on the lavish contract he initially signed with the Dolphins in 2013, and the eighth-year target acknowledged his contract and substandard year could make him a one-and-done Viking. The team only gave up a fifth-round pick to acquire Wallace last March.Matt Kalil

Minnesota’s second-highest cap number belongs to Matt Kalil, as the Vikings exercised their fifth-year option, worth over $11MM, on their inconsistent left tackle last season. The Vikings could save that entire figure by cutting Kalil, whom they’re reportedly torn on retaining. The promise of Kalil’s rookie season, when he booked a Pro Bowl berth and gave Vikings fans the impression their left-edge spot was set for the decade’s remainder, has not resurfaced much in the three years since. But the Vikings don’t have a viable alternative to Kalil at this point, making a release riskier than shedding Wallace’s salary.

Rick Spielman‘s first draft choice as GM, Kalil improved some last season, but was still a below-average tackle and as of now will be paid like an elite blocker. Among offensive lineman, only D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Tyron Smith feature higher 2016 cap holds than 2012’s No. 4 overall pick does right now.

Cutting Kalil and Wallace could nearly double Minnesota’s projected cap space, ballooning it to more than $45MM, and would allow further bolstering of an already strong roster.

Phil Loadholt won’t generate that kind of cash influx if he’s released, but that’s a possibility as well. The Vikings could create $6MM in additional space by releasing their longtime right tackle.

Loadholt – whose current situation is a lower-profile version of Ryan Clady‘s in Denver – has missed the last 21 Vikings regular-season games because of severe injuries. A torn pectoral ended Loadholt’s 2014 season and a string of five consecutive seasons in which he’d started at least 15 contests, and the torn Achilles he suffered before last season shelved him in 2015. Like Clady, Loadholt proved productive prior to his health issues, grading out as a top-five tackle in 2013 (per PFF) and playing well in ’14 before going down with an injury.

A former second-round pick who recently turned 30, Loadholt is owed a career-high $7.75MM as part of the final year of the four-year contract extension he signed in 2013. The former upper-echelon right tackle could very well be released or, like Wallace, asked to take a pay cut.

Positions Of Need:

One thing working for Loadholt’s status in the Twin Cities: T.J. Clemmings‘ struggles as a rookie on the right side. The reconfigured line sans John Sullivan and Loadholt — which was the game’s only quintet to start all 16 games together — provided Teddy Bridgewater with the second-worst pass protection in football last season, according to Pro Football Focus. Clemmings came in at No. 67 among PFF’s graded full-time tackles last season. While Mike Harris thrived on moving from tackle to guard, Brandon Fusco didn’t take to left guard as well as his previous right-side spot.

The Vikings now have the 30-year-old Sullivan and Loadholt — who each started from 2009-14, bridging the gap from Favre to Bridgewater — back but also no clear starting spot for Joe Berger. A solution could be sliding the veteran backup to left guard and moving Fusco back to the right side at which he excelled, where he can replace the departing Harris. Clemmings, who is also an option at right guard after he worked there last summer as a rookie, didn’t look ready to start full-time at right tackle based on his 2015 performance. But if the Vikings decide the $6MM in cap savings outweighs Loadholt’s potential to remain effective, Clemmings could have a clearer route to a starting gig.

Nevertheless, some additional youth will be required here, either in the form of a free agent in search of his second contract or an early-round rookie.

It’s possible the Vikings could have three starters in their 30s blocking for a 31-year-old running back. If Sullivan — who like Loadholt proved durable from 2009-14 — can return to the level at which he played before the Vikings awarded him with a third contract last April, this unit could be a strong outfit in the short term. Sullivan is due to take up reasonable $5.83MM cap numbers the next two seasons. But relying on two injury comebacks from early-30s performers is obviously not ideal.

In order to line up long-term options on the offensive line, the Vikings will need to add some reinforcements soon. Minnesota has enjoyed success in finding linemen through the draft, but amazingly hasn’t selected an interior-line cog in the top three rounds since 2006. If that streak continues – which it probably shouldn’t considering where some of the gems the team drafted are at in their careers – a deep guard class could factor into that decision.

With both Sullivan and Berger under contract, center doesn’t make much sense as a priority in free agency, but the other spots could use the depth. As far as second contract-seeking guards go, Alex Boone, Ramon Foster, Brandon Brooks, Jeff Allen, and obviously Kelechi Osemele represent the notable free agent options, along with Harris. This would be an area to target for veteran assistance.

Evan Mathis, Jahri Evans and Richie Incognito are also available, but the Vikings as of now already have too many 30-somethings on second or third deals up front.

At tackle, Minnesota may need more help. Mitchell Schwartz and Andre Smith are the top unrestricted options, but Schwartz in particular would require a significant financial commitment — something closer to the mammoth extension Lane Johnson just received ($11.25MM AAV) than the position’s second tier of Bryan Bulaga/Jermey Parnell/Austin Howard/Marcus Gilbert, who play for around $6MM on average. Considering both Kalil and Loadholt are carrying top-five salaries at their respective positions, adding another pricey edge blocker will not be realistic as long as they’re both still around.

Joe Barksdale, who was about the only good thing involved with the Chargers’ front in 2015, is another potential target for the Vikings at tackle. Barksdale’s market stalled last spring, but he’s only 27 and has played 16 games in each of the past three seasons.

If Minnesota wants to shake things up and move on from Kalil, the non-Cordy Glenn contingent on the left side doesn’t include a bevy of fits. Donald Penn wouldn’t provide the kind of youthful complement the team needs. That leaves Russell Okung as perhaps the top prize if Glenn gets the Bills’ franchise tag, which will make Okung awfully expensive.

The Vikings will have to make interesting choices here, as this is one of the more fluid offensive line situations in football. As of now, none of the starting five are locked into a job in 2016.

If Mike Wallace isn’t receptive to a pay cut, it might be a positive for the Vikings’ wideouts. The team will bring back Stefon Diggs and the suddenly viable Jarius Wright, and Charles Johnson should be given another chance to recapture the form he showed in the second half of 2014, but Minnesota will still will look to upgrade on the outside.

In terms of a downfield threat, Wallace still fits the bill in theory with his elite speed, but he didn’t have a single reception of 35+ yards in 2015. Travis Benjamin appears to be headed toward the market after talks broke down with the Browns, and the fifth-year breakout performer could provide an upgrade. However, Benjamin doesn’t have much to go on besides his contract season. Seattle may allow Jermaine Kearse to reach free agency, and he’s a more consistent target than Benjamin, who suddenly went off for 68 receptions last year on a terrible Browns team after combining for 41 in his first three campaigns. Kearse, or someone like Rishard Matthews, would bring a solid presence opposite Diggs.

Marvin Jones‘ history working against Mike Zimmer charges in practice in Cincinnati could lead somewhere, but he doesn’t profile as a downfield receiver the Vikings ideally need to supplement Diggs. As for Mohamed Sanu, he’s a better receiver than Cordarrelle Patterson, but his penchant for gadget-style gains may be too close to Patterson’s ill-fitting repertoire for the Vikings to pursue him.

Regardless of the moves the Vikings make to address the wide receiver position, it will be on Bridgewater to elevate the team’s passing game into an above-average attack instead of what the Vikings put on display last season.

On the defensive side of the ball, rookie UDFA Anthony Harris showed some promise toward the end of last season, but the Vikings will look to address their other safety spot. With Harrison Smith likely set for an extension, Minnesota won’t look to add a top-shelf safety. But there are plenty of quality options out there this year, including two with a recent history in Zimmer’s system.

Both of the Bengals’ starting safeties, Reggie Nelson and George Iloka, are headed for free agency, and each played extensive snaps under Zimmer’s tutelage. Despite the fact that the 32-year-old Nelson led the NFL in picks last season, Iloka may warrant a bigger contract due to entering just his age-26 season. He has been a three-year starter, lining up with the first-stringers in 16 games for the 2013 Bengals under Zimmer. Iloka also enjoyed a balanced 2015, showing a near-equal acumen for deterring the pass and the run. An ideal complement for Smith, Iloka’s best years are probably ahead of him. The former fifth-round pick’s connection to Zimmer makes Iloka worth monitoring in Minnesota.

If Nelson’s market dries up due to concerns about his age, a short-term deal to team him with Smith wouldn’t be a bad idea. In the event one of Cincinnati’s back-line bastions doesn’t make his way to Minneapolis, the Lions’ Isa Abdul-Quddus or the Cardinals’ Rashad Johnson could be options. Still, with Smith in the fold, this isn’t a pressing need.

Harrison SmithExtension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Already secured via a comfortable fifth-year option, Harrison Smith will be a cornerstone player in Minnesota for the foreseeable future. His first Pro Bowl berth was overdue, and an extension should be a formality. Rick Spielman will look to ensure that the second selection of his GM tenure stays visible in Minnesota, since a player with a combination of Smith’s versatility and play-making skills doesn’t come along often.

Smith will rightfully look for top-tier safety money, with contracts like Devin McCourty‘s, Jairus Byrd‘s and Eric Berry‘s forthcoming deal as comparables. Both McCourty and Byrd signed for at least $9MM AAV in 2014 and ’15, respectively. With the cap rising at the rate it is, Smith could justifiably ask to exceed those accords and join Earl Thomas as the only other safety averaging an eight-figure salary.

Spielman also should have relatively quick decisions on exercising the fifth-year options for Xavier Rhodes and Sharrif Floyd, with the latter playing alongside Linval Joseph to make up one of the game’s top interior-line tandems. Rhodes still profiles as the Vikings’ No. 1 corner despite his inconsistent 2015. He should be given this season and next to establish the value of his second contract. The prospective prices for both of these moves — fifth-year options for defensive tackles selected at Nos. 11-32 cost $6.15MM in 2015, with cornerbacks taken outside the top 10 taking up $7.51MM of a team’s cap — aren’t deal-breakers by any means.

The team’s fifth-year option decision regarding Cordarrelle Patterson should be just as easy. Patterson hauled in just two passes despite being healthy for 16 games, making his 2015 campaign one of the more anonymous seasons by a first-round wideout playing for the team that selected him. The former first-team All-Pro return man has not proven worthy of an extra year’s worth of Minnesota-based development. With Patterson’s 2017 option year set to cost at least $7.3MM, this is a non-starter.

Overall Outlook:

The Vikings have some intriguing choices to make, but possess the nucleus to battle the Packers and repeat as NFC North champions. If the Vikings can solve their offensive line matrix and continue to reap rewards from employing one of the league’s greatest running backs, their running game and their promising defense – which will return mostly intact – gives them one of the NFC’s best rosters.

Teddy Bridgewater‘s development will be essential for catalyzing Minnesota’s pursuit of further playoff advancement, but there’s a lot of reason for optimism up north as the new league year approaches.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Seahawks

February 28th, 2016 at 9:49pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Russell Wilson, QB: $18,542,000
  2. Richard Sherman, CB: $14,769,000
  3. Marshawn Lynch, RB: $11,500,000 (will reduce to $5MM if/when retirement becomes official)
  4. Earl Thomas, S: $9,900,000
  5. Jimmy Graham, TE: $9,000,000
  6. Michael Bennett, DE: $7,000,000
  7. Cliff Avril, DE: $6,500,000
  8. K.J. Wright, OLB: $6,250,000
  9. Kam Chancellor, S: $6,100,000
  10. Bobby Wagner, ILB: $6,068,750
  11. Doug Baldwin, WR: $5,600,000
  12. Steven Hauschka, K: $3,525,000
  13. Cary Williams, CB: $2,333,334 (dead money)
  14. Luke Willson, TE: $1,691,633
  15. Paul Richardson, WR: $1,285,319

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • No major changes.

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

The 2015-16 campaign represented a step back in bottom-line results for the Seahawks, who won the fewest regular-season games of the four-year Russell Wilson era (10) and were unable to extend their streak of consecutive Super Bowl appearances to three.

Still, the Seahawks clinched a wild-card berth and made the playoffs for the fourth straight time — an accomplishment only four other clubs have matched during the same span. They also racked up top-five finishes in total offense, defense and point differential, and ranked first in Football Outsiders’ regular-season DVOA metric. Add all of that up, and it doesn’t look as if the Seahawks’ championship window closed when the NFC-winning Panthers ended their season in the divisional round.

On the other hand, the window apparently has closed on the 10-year career of running back Marshawn Lynch, one of the best, most "<strongiconic players in Seahawks history. Lynch and his agent have both made it known that he’s retiring, and general manager John Schneider spoke in the past tense about “Beast Mode” on Wednesday (link via The Seattle Times’ Bob Condotta).

“When you talk about when we got here (in 2010) it was all about establishing this toughness, this bully mentality with our acquisition, and he really helped us do that — on the defensive side of the ball, too — it wasn’t just about how he ran the football,” Schneider said.

Originally acquired from Buffalo for pennies on the dollar (two late-round draft picks), Lynch made four Pro Bowls in Seattle and was the driving force behind its offense for most of his five-plus-year career there. In each of his four 16-game seasons as a Seahawk, Lynch finished with at least 280 carries, 1,200 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. The 29-year-old went out with a whimper, though, as injuries limited him to career lows in games (seven), carries (111), ground yards (417) and per-rush average (3.8) last season.

In hindsight, it’s possible Lynch’s anticlimactic going-out party was a blessing in disguise for the Seahawks, who are now accustomed to life without him and may have found an excellent successor in Thomas Rawls. As a rookie last season, the undrafted free agent from Central Michigan burst on the scene with 830 rushing yards on a sterling 5.6 YPC average. However, Rawls succumbed to a fractured ankle in December and Schneider indicated Wednesday that the soon-to-be 23-year-old will have to earn a starting job in 2016.

“He definitely has the talent to do it,” said Schneider. “But we’re going to get a couple of people in there to compete with him.”

Running back is one of several positions Schneider will focus on this offseason as he tries to improve the already formidable Seahawks. And once Lynch is officially in the club’s rear-view mirror, Schneider will have an extra $6.5MM with which to work.

Key Free Agents:

The Seahawks are chock-full of unsigned players (31), but 14 of those individuals are either exclusive rights free agents or restricted free agents. That means the team isn’t necessarily in danger of losing any of them (the ERFAs will automatically stay under team control if they’re tendered an offer). However, the same isn’t true in regards to the Seahawks’ pending unrestricted free agents, several of whom have played important roles for the club in recent years and could be weeks from finding new homes. Left tackle Russell Okung and linebacker Bruce Irvin are the most integral of the bunch.

Since the Seahawks drafted him sixth overall in 2010, Okung has started in all 72 of his career regular-season appearances and earned a Pro Bowl berth (2012). The problem is that injuries have caused the 28-year-old to miss a quarter (24) of 96 possible contests. He also hasn’t played a full 16-game season and is currently on the mend from recent left shoulder surgery. Okung has been effective when healthy, though, and is aiming to cash in as one of the top tackles in this year’s free agent class.

Okung, who is acting as his own agent, called staying in Seattle “very possible” earlier this week, but he added, “I know my value, and I’m not going to settle for anything less than that.” As neither an elite tackle nor a durable one, Okung probably isn’t in line for the $13.706MM franchise tag. That means a multiyear deal is likely the only way for Seattle to keep Okung, whose next contract shouldn’t greatly exceed his expiring one.

Okung entered the league before the rookie cap was in place and signed for $48.5MM total, netting just over $8MM per year. Those marks currently rank seventh and 11th, respectively, among left tackles. A reasonable benchmark for Okung’s next accord could be the five-year agreement Branden Albert inked with the Dolphins as a free agent in 2014. Albert is now a top-10 left tackle in total value ($47MM, eighth), yearly value ($9.4MM, ninth) and guaranteed money ($20MM, seventh). Of course, with the cap having risen more than $22MM since Albert signed, there’s a chance Okung will surpass those marks.

Irvin, meanwhile, is only scheduled for free agency because the Seahawks chose last spring to decline his fifth-year option for 2016. Had they exercised it, Irvin would have made $7.8MM this year. The Seahawks’ decision initially upset Irvin, who went on a Twitter tirade, though head coach Pete Carroll‘s response was, “We expect him to be here for a long time and we will work to get that done” (link via Sheil Kapadia of ESPN.com).

Despite Carroll’s confidence then and Irvin’s declaration in January that he’d be amenable to a hometown discount, there hasn’t been any known progress toward a new deal. Assuming the Seahawks don’t franchise Irvin at $14.129MM, he could find as much as $10MM annually on the market, as Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reported earlier this month. For his part, Schneider seems resigned to the departure of Irvin, who has recorded 22 sacks in four years since Seattle selected him 15th overall in 2012.

“I love Bruce… but it really, truly is a big puzzle that we have to work through,” Schneider said last week (per Kapadia). “And I’ve met with Bruce individually. He knows how we feel about him as an organization. He knows that we’re either going to be able to make it work or we’re just going to give him a big hug and congratulate him.”

In addition to Irvin, the Seahawks’ front seven is in danger of losing defensive tackles Brandon Mebane and Ahtyba Rubin, who finished third and fourth, respectively, among the team’s D-linemen in snaps last season. The two also started in all of their appearances (16 for Rubin, 15 for Mebane), but neither garnered much praise from Pro Football Focus – the site graded Mebane 70th and Rubin 80th among 123 qualifying D-linemen. It’s worth nothing, however, that the pair played mostly run snaps and the Seahawks’ defense surrendered the fewest rushing yards in the league.

If the Seahawks don’t re-sign Mebane, it would end his tenure with the team after nine years. The 2007 third-round pick is coming off a five-year, $25MM deal, but he’s highly unlikely to approach either of those numbers on his next contract as he enters his age-31 season. Rubin, on the other hand, signed with Seattle for $2.5MM last winter after seven years in Cleveland. Another short-term deal in that price range could keep the soon-to-be 30-year-old in Seattle.Jeremy Lane

The Seahawks’ only other noteworthy UFA defender is cornerback Jeremy Lane, who sat out the club’s first 10 games last season after breaking his arm and tearing his ACL on a Super Bowl XLIX interception. Lane also missed nine games in 2014 and has accumulated a mere six starts in four years. Still, he recorded the first two regular-season INTs of his career and ranked 51st out of 111 qualifying corners at PFF last year, and will be a strong candidate to start opposite Richard Sherman if he stays with the Seahawks. Lane, 25, is hoping to do exactly that.

“If the situation was right, I would love to go back to the Seahawks,” he told SiriusXM earlier this month (link via Stephen Cohen of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer). “They were the team to give me my first opportunity to showcase my skills in the NFL, and I appreciate them. They would be my No. 1 choice I would go to if they were the right choice for me and my family.”

On the other side of the ball, receiver Jermaine Kearse could finally exit his native Evergreen State, in which he played college football (University of Washington) and has spent the first four years of his pro career. Kearse — whom the Seahawks signed as an undrafted free agent in 2012 — has increased his production each year, notching personal bests in catches (49), targets (68), yards (685) and touchdowns (five) last season. Kearse indicated in January that his top priority is securing his family’s financial future, not settling for a hometown discount. With that in mind, Kearse might be able take advantage of a thin pool of free agent wideouts and ultimately price himself out of Seattle. It’s quite possible he’ll land a deal in the neighborhood of $4MM to $5MM a year.

Like Kearse, right guard J.R. Sweezy became a Seahawk in 2012 (as a seventh-round pick) and is now inching closer to hitting the open market. Sweezy has appeared in and started 45 games over the last three years, including 15 last season. Although PFF wasn’t impressed with Sweezy’s contract-year performance, ranking him 66th out of 81 qualifying guards, Rand Getlin of NFL Network tweeted earlier this month that there’s “plenty of buzz” around Sweezy as free agency nears. Sweezy could use the four-year, $19MM deal that ex-Seahawks guard James Carpenter got in free agency from the Jets last year as a yardstick, according to CBS Sports’ Joel Corry.

The rest of the Seahawks’ free agents are role players and/or RFAs, including center Patrick Lewis, backup quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, offensive lineman Alvin Bailey, reserve running backs Christine Michael and Fred Jackson, fullback Derrick Coleman, linebacker Mike Morgan and punter Jon Ryan.

As RFAs, Lewis, Bailey and Michael seem the likeliest to stay in Seattle. Lewis, who took the center job from Drew Nowak midway through last season and ultimately started in all nine of his appearances, is presumably in the Seahawks’ plans going forward.

Bailey appeared to expressed frustration with his situation in October, but with Okung and Sweezy possibly on the outs, odds are the team will tender him a contract.

Carroll said in January he’d like for the Seahawks to bring back Michael, whom they traded to Dallas last September and then signed late in the season after the Cowboys waived him. In his second stint as a Seahawk, Michael averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 39 attempts. Given Michael’s familiarity with the Seahawks’ offense and his solid performance with the club in 17 career games, it would make sense for them to tender the 25-year-old and give him an opportunity to keep his job behind Rawls.

Tarvaris Jackson, 32, has spent most of the last half-decade with the Seahawks, but he’ll test the market, per Jessamyn McIntyre of 710 ESPN Seattle (Twitter link).

It will be a surprise if the Seahawks re-sign Fred Jackson, the oldest running back in the league (35), after he amassed only 26 carries in 16 games last season. Jackson does want to continue his career, though, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter link).

Coleman, who’s restricted, isn’t a lock to get a tender considering the legal issues he’s facing stemming from an October car accident. Coleman mostly played on special teams last season, as did Morgan – who was third on the team in ST snaps (284). Morgan is unrestricted, but he shouldn’t be difficult to retain if the Seahawks want him back.

Ryan, the Seahawks’ punter since 2008, has been mediocre to below average in yards per punt and net average in recent years, so that’s a position the club could try to upgrade.

Possible Cap Casualties:

Unless Lynch has a change of heart on his retirement, the Seahawks are devoid of players they’re likely to release for cap reasons. If Lynch does a 180 and decides to keep playing, the Seahawks might not be receptive to keeping him. As mentioned earlier, they’ll open up $6.5MM without Lynch in the picture. If they were to designate him a post- June 1 cut, they’d save $9MM.Jimmy Graham

Releasing three-time Pro Bowl tight end Jimmy Graham would also clear $9MM, whether before or after June 1, but Schneider has no intention of doing it.

“No, I don’t, I really don’t,” he told 950 KJR-AM in January (per Kapadia). “I understand why people would say that based on the salary and what some people have … people on the outside may perceive as a lack of production. But really, truly, the guy is a special player. We gave up a No. 1 draft choice for him.”

In addition to sending a first-rounder to the Saints for Graham last winter, the Seahawks also parted with center Max Unger. Graham then had an underwhelming season in Seattle, catching 48 passes and two touchdowns in 11 games, before suffering a torn patellar tendon in November. The 29-year-old is currently recovering from the injury, and Schneider is encouraged by his progress.

“Jimmy is doing great,” Schneider said last Wednesday. “He’s down in Miami working with some people down there, and he’s doing great. He’s got a great attitude about it. Obviously it was a devastating injury for us at the time, but he’s a great guy, got a great attitude about it, and he’s ready to get after it.’”

Positions Of Need:

Even with Okung and Sweezy in their lineup for the lion’s share of last season, the Seahawks’ offensive line still had major pass-blocking issues for a good portion of the campaign. The unit surrendered the sixth-most sacks in the league (46) and ranked 30th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate metric. Those numbers are somewhat deceiving overall, though, as the group fared well during the second half of the season. Amid their 6-2 post-bye week run, the Seahawks gave up a paltry 13 sacks. Still, with Okung and Sweezy facing uncertain futures, Seattle might have to find two new O-line starters (including an all-important left tackle), and that’s assuming Lewis, left guard Justin Britt and right tackle Garry Gilliam stay in place.

If Okung walks and the Seahawks are willing to spend to replace him, a couple of high-end free agent possibilities are the Raiders’ Donald Penn and the Ravens’ Kelechi Osemele.

Unlike Okung, Penn has been the picture of durability throughout his career, having missed zero games in his nine years in the league. He has also started 16 games in eight straight seasons (as mentioned earlier, Okung has never done that). Both Penn’s reliability and performance (he was PFF’s No. 11 tackle last season, 20 spots above Okung) should lead him to an appreciable raise over the $4.8MM per year he made on his prior deal. Penn is much older than Okung (33 compared to 28), which means he’s unlikely to get more than a two- or three-year commitment. That could appeal to the Seahawks.

Osemele doesn’t have Penn’s track record as a left tackle, having moved there from guard last season, but he’s on the cusp of a substantial payday. We learned earlier this week that the Ravens have been “aggressive” in their attempt to retain Osemele, whom they could offer more than $10MM per season. Osemele is two years younger than Okung, which is a plus, but he has gone three seasons in a row without playing all 16 games.

In the event the Seahawks would rather fill the left tackle spot by less expensive means, Jermon Bushrod – who has made 96 starts since 2009 – is on the market after the Bears released him a couple weeks ago. Bushrod wouldn’t cost the Seahawks much, but he comes with obvious warts. The 31-year-old battled injuries last season and made only four starts – his fewest since 2008 – and Chicago cut him with a failed physical designation. He has since undergone shoulder surgery and is facing a four-month recovery. Okung aside, Schneider hasn’t been one to funnel huge money into the O-line, so it’s not totally far-fetched that he’d take a chance on Bushrod as a cheap stopgap. Of course, Bushrod would first have to get a clean bill of health.

Guard features far more viable options than left tackle when it comes to prospective free agents, and the Seahawks should be able to find a competent one without breaking the bank. At the moment, Richie Incognito (Bills), Ramon Foster (Steelers), Alex Boone (49ers), Jeff Allen (Chiefs), Brandon Brooks (Texans), Mike Harris (Vikings), Chris Chester (Falcons) and Evan Mathis (Broncos), whom the Seahawks visited with last summer but chose not to sign, are all without deals.

If the Seahawks want to use their first-round pick (26th overall) on an offensive lineman, the likes of Taylor Decker (tackle, Ohio State), Shon Coleman (tackle, Auburn) and Cody Whitehair (guard, Kansas State) could be available.

The Seahawks have other holes to fill offensively, but they’re less pressing. As noted above, Schneider will try to augment the team’s running back group. Free agent Joique Bell — who should come at a bargain rate — would add a pass-catching element to the Seahawks’ backfield, which Rawls didn’t provide last season. Speaking of catching passes, with Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett in the fold, the Seahawks are well-equipped to move on without Kearse next season. They’re likely to fill Kearse’s soon-to-be vacated spot by drafting a wideout in the fourth round or higher, according to Kapadia.

With Irvin poised to go someplace else, not to mention the cloudy statuses of Mebane and Rubin, the Seahawks must address their defensive front seven. The team doesn’t necessarily have to bring in a linebacker to fill Irvin’s pass-rushing void, though. End Chris Long — whom the Rams released this month — is a possible fit in that regard, per Kapadia. However, the eight-year veteran isn’t the imposing force he was in his earlier days, having totaled just four sacks over the previous two years while battling injuries. Moreover, PFF gave him an especially poor grade last season (98th out of 110 qualifying edge defenders).

The Seahawks were in the Greg Hardy sweepstakes last offseason, but they backed out after weighing the defensive end’s price tag and his poor off-field conduct (link via Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk). While Hardy’s history of unbecoming off-field behavior hasn’t changed, if he’s cheaper as a free agent this offseason, perhaps the Seahawks will revisit the idea of adding a player with 32 sacks in his last 43 games to help make up for Irvin’s loss. With Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril and Hardy, the Seahawks would have a frightening trio of edge rushers.

Seattle was also connected to run-stuffing defensive tackle Terrance Knighton last year before he went to Washington for $4MM. Knighton is set to hit the market again next month, and with Mebane and Rubin unsigned, the Seahawks might circle back to Pot Roast as a short-term solution. Nick Fairley (Rams), Ian Williams (49ers), Akiem Hicks (Patriots) and the Saints’ Kevin Williams (a Seahawk in 2014) are some of the other accomplished DTs who are without contracts.

The Seahawks could also use their first-rounder to add to their front seven, and it so happens that the draft is flush with talent in that area. Leonard Floyd (edge rusher, Georgia), Robert Nkemdiche (DT, Ole Miss), A’Shawn Robinson (DT, Alabama), Shaq Lawson (DE, Clemson) and Sheldon Rankins (DT, Louisville) all seem like candidates to end up in a Seahawks uniform.

Shifting to the secondary, Seattle will have to address the cornerback position if Lane signs elsewhere. The Saints plan to cut veteran Brandon Browner, who played in Seattle from 2011-13. Though Browner was awful last season in New Orleans, he had some solid seasons with the Seahawks – whose defense he’s keenly familiar with – and shouldn’t come at a lofty price. The 6-foot-4, 221-pounder even said last summer that he wanted to return to Seattle eventually. Of course, that doesn’t mean the team feels the same way. If the Seahawks would rather sign an established player who isn’t coming off a poor season, Adam Jones (Bengals), Leon Hall (Bengals), William Gay (Steelers) and Patrick Robinson (Chargers) are a few of the many corners primed for free agency.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Two of the Seahawks’ most valuable defenders, aforementioned end Michael Bennett and safety Kam Chancellor, haven’t hidden their "<strongdissatisfaction with their current contracts — both of which expire after the 2017 campaign. The Seahawks are now discussing a new deal with Bennett, so it looks as though they’re on the road to appeasing him.

Bennett, who recently switched agencies from Rosenahus Sports to Relativity Sports, has accrued 25.5 sacks since joining the Seahawks in 2013. A career-high 10 of those sacks came last season, when he graded out as a top-five edge defender at PFF. While Bennett isn’t exactly playing for the league minimum, ranking 12th at his position in both total value ($28.5MM) and yearly average (~$7.13MM), and 15th in guarantees ($10MM), he has outperformed his contract. If the Seahawks award Bennett a raise, a pact worth upward of $10MM per year could be in the offing. That would put him in the elite tier of 4-3 ends in terms of compensation.

Chancellor took a less diplomatic approach than Bennett last year when he skipped all of training camp, the preseason, and then the first two games of the regular season in hopes of earning a raise. That method backfired, though, as the Seahawks didn’t budge and Chancellor eventually admitted defeat (temporarily, anyway). Chancellor’s failed power move cost him upward of $2.1MM thanks to fines, signing-bonus forfeiture and lost salary.

Chancellor, a top-10 safety in total worth (~$28MM) and per-year value (~$7MM), was seeking at least $9MM annually during his holdout. The soon-to-be 28-year-old isn’t suddenly content with his situation, notes Corry, who expects the four-time Pro Bowler to monitor what fellow safety Eric Berry signs for in the coming weeks. Earl Thomas, Chancellor’s teammate, is the league’s highest-paid safety on a yearly basis at $10MM – a number Berry has a realistic chance to top, and one Chancellor wants to approach.

While Bennett and Chancellor are still under Seahawks control for two more seasons, wideout Doug Baldwin and kicker Steven Hauschka are heading into contract years. Thus, the Seahawks could explore extensions for either or both of them in the coming months.

Baldwin was a quality target for the first four years of his career, averaging 49 receptions for 689 yards and roughly four touchdowns per campaign from 2011-14, but he experienced a significant breakout last season. The 5-10, 189-pounder tied for the lead among wideouts in TDs (14, tied with Brandon Marshall and Allen Robinson) and piled up career bests in receptions (78), targets (104) and yards (1,069). As a result, the 27-year-old should at least be in line to join the financial company of other late-20s receivers like Torrey Smith and Michael Crabtree. Both are non-star players who signed for $8MM or more annually in the last 12 months, placing them in the top 20 at the position in total value and yearly mean.

Hauschka has been consistently great during his five years in Seattle, nailing nearly 89% of his field goal attempts (142 of 160). In two of the last three seasons, Hauschka has connected on well over 90% of tries – including his 29-of-31 output in 2015 (93.5%). Hauschka also hit on all six of his attempts over 50 yards, making him 11 of 13 from that distance since 2013. Further, the 30-year-old was respectable on kickoffs, ranking 11th in yards per kick (64.5) and touchbacks (47). He did struggle in the first year of the 33-yard extra point, however, finishing with the league’s fifth-worst success rate (90.9%).

Despite his PAT issues, Hauschka is set up for a raise over his $2.85MM annual salary if the Seahawks decide to extend him. He could land in a similar ballpark to the Patriots’ Stephen Gostkowski, who signed a four-year, $17.2MM extension at the age of 31 last summer. Gostkowski, second among kickers in total money, yearly average ($4.3MM) and first in guarantees ($10.1MM), had gone a combined 102 of 113 (90.3%) on field goals in the three seasons before his extension. Hauschka has been equally effective during his last 48 games (93 of 103, 90.3%), and the $12MM increase in cap since last year should help his cause in obtaining Gostkowski-type money.

Overall Outlook:

The Seahawks have an all-world core group and one of the premier rosters in the league in place, so John Schneider won’t have to do anything drastic this offseason to keep the team in Super Bowl contention. With the cap space and draft picks he has at his disposal, the seventh-year GM will likely spend the next several months mostly focusing on the Seahawks’ lines as he plots to dethrone the Cardinals in the NFC West and the Panthers in the conference.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 2/21/16 – 2/28/16

February 28th, 2016 at 4:52pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original analysis and content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Bengals

February 27th, 2016 at 10:00pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Andy Dalton, QB: $13,100,000
  2. A.J. Green, WR: $13,000,000
  3. Geno Atkins, DT: $9,600,000
  4. Kevin Zeitler, G: $8,070,000
  5. Andrew Whitworth, T: $8,000,000
  6. Dre Kirkpatrick, CB: $7,507,000
  7. Carlos Dunlap, DE: $6,250,000
  8. Michael Johnson, DE: $6,125,000
  9. Clint Boling, G: $4,750,000
  10. Rey Maualuga, LB: $4,084,375
  11. Vontaze Burfict, LB: $3,825,000
  12. Domata Peko, DT: $3,725,000
  13. Kevin Huber, P: $3,020,000
  14. Tyler Eifert, TE: $2,626,909
  15. Darqueze Dennard, CB: $2,176,063

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • Offensive coordinator: Promoted QBs coach Ken Zampese to replace Hue Jackson, who left to become Browns HC.
  • Offensive staff: Hired former Dolphins OC Bill Lazor as QBs coach to replace Ken Zampese.
  • Defensive staff: Hired former Dolphins DC Kevin Coyle as secondary coach to replace Vance Joseph, who left to become Dolphins DC.
  • Defensive staff: Hired former Saints HC Jim Haslett as LBs coach to replace Matt Burke.

Draft:

  • No. 24 overall pick
  • No traded draft picks.

Other:

Overview:

Five consecutive playoff appearances. Five consecutive first round exits. The beat goes on in Cincinnati, but the 2015 postseason loss was perhaps the most painful of the bunch. After a frantic comeback led by backup quarterback A.J. McCarron, the Bengals appeared poised to win their first playoff game since 1991. But after allowing Ben Roethlisberger to drive the Steelers offense down the field, Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones committed two astonishing personal fouls, allowing kicker Chris Boswell to set up for the game-winning field goal as time expired.Marvin Lewis (Vertical)

As deflating as that loss was, the Bengals’ season still has to be viewed as a success. The club posted its fourth consecutive 10-win season, and with a final mark of 12-4, the 2015 team is certainly in the running for the best Cincinnati squad in the history of the franchise (at least, in the regular season). Quarterback Andy Dalton was outstanding, completing 66% of his passes for than 3,200 yards, 25 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions, and may have garnered MVP consideration if not for a late-season injury. And after dipping to 14th in DVOA in 2014, the Bengals’ defense rebounded and once again finished inside the top 10.

It was a season of what-ifs in the Queen City: what if Dalton hadn’t suffered a broken thumb on a freak play? What if Burfict and/or Jones don’t commit those personal fouls? What if the team had won one more regular-season game and secured a postseason bye? Could Dalton have returned for the divisional round? And although those questions frustratingly will never be answered, the fact remains that a large portion of the NFL would instantly trade places with a franchise that has made the playoffs for five consecutive seasons and is sitting on a young core of talent.

Head coach Marvin Lewis, owner/GM Mike Brown, director of player personnel Duke Tobin, and the rest of Cincinnati’s front office have made their bones in past offseasons, combining smart free agent decisions with solid draft classes. Several key Bengals pieces are set to hit unrestricted free agency if deals aren’t reached, and while Cincinnati has plenty of cap space with which to work, the team will still have to make a few tough calls in the coming weeks.

Key Free Agents:

Most of the Bengals’ top free agents are on the defensive side of the ball, but the club does have several offensive players who are heading for the open market, including its No. 2 and No. 3 receivers — Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu. There’s no question that Jones is the more talented of the two, and while that makes it more critical that Cincinnati re-sign him, it also means that more clubs will show interest if he reaches free agency (and reports are that he plans to test the market).Marvin Jones

In two full NFL seasons, Jones, who turns 26 in early March, has averaged 58 receptions for 764 yards and seven touchdowns — not star numbers, to be sure, but certainly productive, especially in a run-based offense that funnels targets to A.J. Green and (last season) Tyler Eifert. Jones may ask for more than $7MM annually, and while I question whether the Bengals will go that high, I still think there’s a better chance Jones is retained over Sanu.

Sanu is expected to garner interest from the Browns, Falcons, and Giants, and isn’t likely to return to Cincinnati. That isn’t surprising, as Sanu is a prime candidate to be overpaid on the free agent market. The Bengals stick to their evaluation of their players and won’t budge from their price, so there’s little chance they’ll match whatever offers Sanu is able to garner from other clubs.

Cincinnati drafted offensive tackles with each of its first two picks in last year’s draft, and the selections put the final nail in incumbent right tackle Andre Smith‘s Bengals coffin. Smith is still under 30 years old, and he’ll get paid by someone else, but there’s little chance he returns to the Queen City. 2016 first-rounder Cedric Ogbuehi is expected to take over on the right side of the offensive line.

As at wide receiver, the Bengals have a pair of free agents-to-be at the safety position, as both Reggie Nelson and George Iloka‘s contracts are expiring. Reserve Shawn Williams is ready to take over as a starter, so it’s not imperative that Cincinnati re-signs both Nelson and Iloka, and of the duo, Iloka should probably be the higher priority simply based on his youth.

The 26-year-old Iloka had another solid season in his third year as a starter, grading as a top-15 safety according to Pro Football Focus. The free agent safety market is relatively flush, so perhaps Iloka’s price gets driven down due to the sheer number of available alternatives, but I’d still expect him to target at least $7MM per season. After Jones, Iloka should be second on the Bengals’ free agent priority list.Reggie Nelson (Vertical)

Now entering his age-33 season, Nelson posted the best campaign of his career in 2015, earning Pro Bowl honors after leading the league in interceptions with eight. He’s clearly still a productive player even heading into his 10th NFL season, and if Iloka doesn’t return, the Bengals should look into a short-term deal with Nelson. But Cincinnati has been wary of committing to players who might be past their prime, so the team might not feel the need to overpay to keep Nelson (despite his public declaration that he’d like to stay).

Elsewhere in the secondary, Cincinnati has two veteran free agents who have very different futures with the Bengals. Adam Jones, despite the mercurial nature that was fully on display during the club’s playoff loss, is widely expected to be re-signed by the Bengals. He’s a solid cornerback even at age 30, he has been in the Bengals system for six seasons, and he shouldn’t be all that expensive, as I don’t get the sense that many other clubs would be too keen to invest in a player with his attitude problems.

Leon Hall, on the other hand, is not expected to be retained, and it’s possible that he may decide to leave the NFL altogether. Retirement is an option for any player over the age of 30, and it’s certainly on the table for someone with Hall’s injury history. The ultimate trooper, Hall has suffered two torn Achilles and dealt with a myriad of other injuries, quietly accepting his transition to slot corner, and even experimented at safety. While he may not be back for a 10th season in Cincinnati, but Hall’s contributions over the past decade shouldn’t be overlooked.

Linebacker Vincent Rey is probably the most likely of all the Bengals’ free agents to be re-signed — Aaron Wilson of the National Football Post recently reported that the club plans to make a “major push” to keep the 28-year-old, and will use Maualuga’s three-year, $15MM contract as a template for Rey’s new deal. On its face, that total might seem like an overpay, but Rey has become a stalwart in Cincinnati’s front seven, and played the most snaps of any Bengals linebacker last season, so the team isn’t going to let him get away. Fellow linebacker Emmanuel Lamur, a sub-package pass-game specialist, should also be re-signed.

Of Cincinnati’s three free agents on the defensive line — Pat Sims, Brandon Thompson, and Wallace Gilberry — Sims probably has the best chance of returning, as the 30-year-old was a valuable reserve nose tackle in his first season back in Cincinnati after two years in Oakland. Thompson, meanwhile, is recovering from a torn ACL and might not latch on with another team until the summer, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Buccaneers (who employ former Bengals DL coach Jay Hayes) show interest. Gilberry has shown an ability to play both inside and outside, and posted 14 sacks from 2012-13 as the club’s third end. Given that he has garnered only 3.5 sacks over the past two seasons though, I’d expect Cincinnati to try to get younger at the position.

One point that needs to be made: I’d guess that Hue Jackson and the Browns are going to target quite a few of the Bengals’ free agents. In fact, Bengals defensive coordinator Paul Guenther confirmed as much on Friday, when he told reporters that he expects the former Cincinnati offensive coordinator to go after his old players. It seems obvious, but coming from the Cincinnati system, Jackson obviously values continuity, so bringing in some free agents whom he knows well would make for a good start in Cleveland. As such, Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin‘s plan to be “proactive” when signing internal free agents needs to come to fruition.

A.J. Hawk (Vertical)Possible Cap Casualties:

After nine seasons in Green Bay, linebacker A.J. Hawk returned to his home state of Ohio on a two-year deal, but it’s doubtful that the 32-year-old will get the chance to play out the full contract. Buried on the Bengals depth chart, Hawk played on only 26.3% of the team’s defensive snaps. Cincinnati can save $1.4MM without incurring any dead money by cutting Hawk, and that’s probably the route they’ll choose.

Kicker Mike Nugent — a high school and college teammate of Hawk — doesn’t cost much in 2016, as his cap figure is just $1.55MM. However, his potential release wouldn’t be financially motivated, but rather based on performance. Nugent missed five field goals last season, including three from inside 50 yards and one from inside 40 yards. Given that he also ranked 25th in kickoff touchback percentage, I’d expect the Bengals to at least bring in kicking competition, and strongly consider making a change.

A rare whiff by the Bengals’ scouting department, defensive end Margus Hunt has failed to live up to his second-round billing in three seasons in Cincinnati. The 6’8″ Estonian hasn’t played in more than 20% of the team’s defensive snaps during any season of his career, and he was inactive for nine Cincinnati contests last season. The Bengals have seen enough of Hunt to know he isn’t the answer, and I don’t expect him to return (though his being waived would only save the club about $900K).

Two veteran defenders — linebacker Rey Maualuga and defensive tackle Domata Peko — are seemingly talked about as candidates for release nearly every offseason, but the pair has constantly survived on the roster, and have now been Bengals for a combined 17 years. Both players actually played pretty well in 2015 (Peko, notably, had been near the bottom of Pro Football Focus’ tackle grades for years), and Cincinnati coaches are always confident the duo is in the right place at the right time.

Cutting Maualuga would save the Bengals in excess of $4MM in 2016, while releasing Peko, who is entering the final year of an extension he agreed to in 2014, would bring Cincinnati $3.25MM in cap relief. Perhaps the duo’s roster spots would be in jeopardy if the club brought in younger options along the front seven, but I think each is probably safe.

Positions Of Need:

Many of the Bengals’ possible areas of focus this offseason will be determined by what happens with their internal free agents, and wide receiver is the most obvious example of that cause-and-effect. If Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu both leave via free agency, Cincinnati’s receiver depth chart behind A.J. Green would look perilously thin (and realistically, even if only one of Jones or Sanu signs elsewhere, the Bengals’ receiving corps would need outside help).

Cincinnati, somewhat surprisingly, didn’t use a high pick in last year’s draft to address the receiver position, and with a glaring list of possible defensive holes, I once again doubt they’ll sacrifice a Day 1 or 2 pick to the offensive side of the ball. So aside from re-signing their own, the Bengals’ likely route for pass-catching improvement is low-cost free agent additions. One option that might make some sense is Dolphins’ receiver Rishard Matthews, who not only would offer a different, more possession-based element than Green, but also has a relationship with former Miami OC Bill Lazor, who is now the Bengals’ quarterbacks coach.

Quarterback, running back, and tight end are all filled positions on Cincinnati’s roster, and though the Bengals used their first two picks last season on offensive lineman, it’s possible that they could target interior help in the later rounds of this year’s draft. Right guard Kevin Zeitler is only signed through 2016, while the one weak spot along the front five was center Russell Bodine. Finding a collegiate player late in the draft capable of playing both spots — as something of an insurance policy — wouldn’t be a bad idea.

On defense, the Bengals rebounded from a ghastly 2014 in which they finished last in the league with only 20 sacks — they finished 2015 ranked 12th in adjusted sack rate. But Michael Johnson is not a prototypical pass-rushing defensive end, and with Domata Peko aging, Cincinnati needs to add an infusion of youth to its defensive line, possibly in Round 1. Louisville’s Sheldon Rankins looks like a poor man’s Geno Atkins, Alabama’s A’Shawn Robinson could be a replacement at nose down the line, and Baylor’s Andrew Billings — whom Chris Burke of Sports Illustrated has going to the Bengals in his latest mock draft — could play either nose or three-technique.

New Bengals defensive line coach Jacob Burney worked in Washington for the five years, and while I don’t think any of Washington’s free agent lineman would be of interest, I could see the Bengals going after Jason Hatcher if he were to be released. Cincinnati values versatility along the line, meaning Robert Ayers, George Selvie, and Tyrunn Walker are among the lineman that might intrigue the club.

If the Bengals don’t use their first-round pick on a defensive lineman, I fully expect the club to select a corner on Day 1 instead. A look at Cincinnati’s secondary from the past few years indicates how much it values pedigree in the defensive backfield — Leon Hall, Dre Kirkpatrick, Adam Jones, Darqueze Dennard, and former longtime Bengal Terence Newman were all first-round picks. If Florida’s Vernon Hargreaves III or Ohio State’s Eli Apple falls to pick No. 24, Cincinnati would run to turn in its card. More likely, they’ll end up with someone like Clemson’s Mackensie Alexander (the Bengals won’t be scared off by his lack of height like other clubs will be).

Like wide receiver, safety is a position that could be on the Bengals’ radar pending the outcome of several free agent decisions. However, I fully expect the team to re-sign at least one of Reggie Nelson or George Iloka, and as noted above, Shawn Williams can start in the NFL right now. Additionally, second-year defensive back Josh Shaw can play safety, so I don’t think this is an area where Cincinnati will expend resources.

Finally, the Bengals are probably set at linebacker if Vincent Rey re-signs as expected, but Vontaze Burfict has dealt with injuries lately and will now miss the first three games of the season due to suspension, so it wouldn’t hurt to bring in some depth. Zach Brown is a former second-pick with an immense amount of athleticism who never broke out with the Titans, and Cincinnati might take a chance hoping they can bring out the best in him. Keenan Robinson could also be a fit, especially given that former Washington coordinator Jim Haslett is the new Cincinnati linebackers coach.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Tyler Eifert (Vertical)The Bengals hold a fifth-year option for 2017 for tight end Tyler Eifert, and the Notre Dame alum made it an easy call with a spectacular 2015 season during which he caught 52 passes for 615 yards and led all tight ends with 13 receiving touchdowns. The recent extensions handed out to fellow tight ends Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz should set a baseline for talks, as each received more than $8.5MM annually and between $10-15MM in guarantees. Both of those players were heading into the final year of their respective contracts, however, while Cincinnati controls Eifert for two more seasons, so perhaps the team can use that leverage to bring down the total outlay.

Like Eifert, running back Giovani Bernard was a member of the Bengals’ 2013 draft class, and while he hasn’t had a single standout season like Eifert’s 2015, Bernard has been extremely consistent, posting roughly 700 yards rushing and 450 yards receiving during each of his first three years in the NFL. But Bernard is the type of back that often doesn’t get paid much on the open market (as noted by Bill Barnwell in a 2014 Grantland article), so it might behoove the Bengals to let Bernard play out his rookie deal rather than trying to extend him now.

Dre Kirkpatrick and Kevin Zeitler will each play out the 2016 season under the terms of their fifth-year options, so the Bengals have roughly one calendar year to work out extensions with each player. As noted above, I’d expect Cincinnati to add another corner early in this year’s draft, so Kirkpatrick might be the odd man out. He’s been a disappointment for the most part in his four seasons with the club, and if he doesn’t show marked improvement this year, the Bengals might let him walk.

Zeitler, on the other hand, has been a revelation at right guard, and graded out as the league’s No. 11 guard in 2015, per Pro Football Focus. A report last April indicated that Cincinnati wanted to work out an extension with Zeitler (and Kirkpatrick for that matter) before making a decision on his fifth-year option, and while that obviously didn’t happen, there’s no reason a deal can’t happen now. Fellow Bengals guard Clint Boling‘s four-year, $26MM deal could be used as a guideline in negotiations.

Overall Outlook:

It would be easy for Bengals fans to get frustrated with the club’s lack of postseason success during the past five years. But Cincinnati is one of the most stable franchises in the NFL, and the club need only look north up I-71 to Cleveland to see what an organization in disrepair looks like. The Steelers are always a threat, and the Ravens may bounce back from a horrid 2015 to once again contend, but the Bengals should be the favorites in the AFC North. They probably won’t spend money or make any splashy moves this offseason, but with a roster full of talent, the Bengals are among them most enviable teams in the league.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Washington

February 26th, 2016 at 9:57pm CST by Luke Adams

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Robert Griffin III, QB: $16,155,000
  2. Trent Williams, T: $10,668,750
  3. Pierre Garcon, WR: $10,200,000
  4. Chris Culliver, CB: $9,250,000
  5. DeSean Jackson, WR: $9,250,000
  6. Jason Hatcher, DE: $8,734,375
  7. Ryan Kerrigan, OLB: $8,450,000
  8. Dashon Goldson, S: $8,000,000
  9. DeAngelo Hall, CB: $5,062,500
  10. Perry Riley, ILB: $5,049,804
  11. Shawn Lauvao, G: $5,000,000
  12. Andre Roberts, WR: $5,000,000
  13. Brandon Scherff, T: $4,821,736
  14. Stephen Paea, DE: $4,653,125
  15. Kory Lichtensteiger, C: $4,050,000

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • Defensive staff: Hired former Colts DC Greg Manusky as OLBs coach.

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

Widely projected to finish third or fourth in the NFC East in 2015, Washington entered the season as underdogs and finished it as division champions, ranking comfortably ahead of the presumed favorites in Philadelphia and Dallas. It wasn’t a particular strong year for the NFC East, and Washington didn’t last long in the postseason, but it was still a surprisingly successful season for Jay Gruden‘s club.

A crucial factor in Washington’s success was the emergency of Kirk Cousins, who took over as the full-time starting quarterback while former No. 2 overall pick Robert Griffin III spent the season watching from the sidelines.

Having entered the season with just nine NFL starts on his résumé, Cousins started all 16 of Washington’s regular season games, leading the NFL with a 69.8% completion percentage, racking up 4,166 yards through the air, and throwing 29 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions. Cousins’ career year, which happened to come in a contract year, puts Washington in a tough spot this winter, but the club certainly “liked that” during the season.

Although Cousins’ play on offense, combined with an effective running game and a steadily improving defense, didn’t make Washington a Super Bowl contender, the franchise is taking steps in the right direction under new general manager Scot McCloughan. Now, it’ll be up to McCloughan to make a few tough roster decisions to ensure that the team keeps trending upwards in 2016.

Key Free Agents:Kirk Cousins

Washington’s top two quarterbacks are both eligible for free agency this offseason, and while the club would like to re-sign Colt McCoy, Cousins is clearly priority number one. His breakout season potentially provided Washington some certainty at a position that looked awfully uncertain 12 months ago, but the fact that Cousins has only excelled for a single full season has to make McCloughan and his staff a little wary about committing to a lucrative, long-term deal.

With negotiations between the two sides ongoing, Cousins clearly has the upper hand. The franchise-tag deadline of March 1st is looming, and if Washington opts to use its tag on its quarterback, it will mean paying him in the ballpark of $20MM or more for the 2016 season, and Cousins’ reps will likely use that figure as his salary floor in negotiations for a longer-term agreement. On the other hand, if Cousins isn’t franchised, he would have the opportunity to reach the open market a week later, where quarterback-needy teams would likely be salivating at the opportunity to make an offer to the most promising signal-caller to hit unrestricted free agency in years.

It’s a tough situation for Washington, but one that probably has a simple answer: McCloughan can’t let Cousins get away for nothing. If that means franchising him, so be it. Using the tag on Cousins would give the team until July 15th to work out a multiyear extension. If the quarterback ends up playing out the 2016 season on a one-year franchise salary, Washington will have a much better sense by next winter of whether or not it can commit to him for the long term.

With Washington currently ranking among the bottom 10 teams in the NFL in terms of projected cap room, and Cousins requiring a significant chunk of space, the club is fortunate that it doesn’t have many other free agents that must be retained.

It would be nice to have running back Alfred Morris return in 2016, but it would be a luxury. Matt Jones significantly cut into Morris’ workload in 2015, and adding a cheaper back to the mix to complement to Jones probably makes the most sense. Fullback Darrel Young is also expendable — he saw his role diminish in 2015, appearing in only about 10% of Washington’s offensive snaps.

Elsewhere on offense, offensive lineman Josh LeRibeus is the most notable free agent, and while he may not be a top priority for Washington, it might make sense to bring him back. After seeing very limited action in his first three NFL seasons, the former third-round pick made seven starts in 2015 and held his own. He’s probably not a player the team wants to rely on as a full-time starter, but as a depth piece who is familiar with the system, LeRibeus is a candidate for a new deal.

On defense, Washington’s most important free agent might be one that didn’t play a single snap for the club in 2015. Edge defender Junior Galette tore his Achilles during the preseason, which kept him from making his regular-season debut in D.C., but he said at season’s end that he expects to re-sign with the club. If Washington is confident that Galette’s off-field issues are behind him, he’d certainly be a nice on-field addition if he’s healthy — he had double-digit sacks in 2013 and 2014 for New Orleans before the Saints grew tired of his rule violations.

Cornerbacks Will Blackmon and Cary Williams don’t necessarily need to be dismissed, but neither player should be relied upon to play a major role on the Washington defense in 2016. The same is probably true for inside linebackers Keenan Robinson and Mason Foster. Foster was a little more solid than Robinson, but inside linebacker is a position Washington ought to focus on upgrading, so Foster shouldn’t be more than a rotational piece if he returns.

Finally, nose tackles Terrance Knighton and Kedric Golston are both eligible for unrestricted free agency in March, and it might behoove the club to keep at least one of the two. Knighton didn’t have quite the same impact as he did in previous years with the Broncos, but he was solid in part-time action in D.C. – particularly against the run – and is more reliable than Golston. If his price tag in free agency is reasonable, Washington should strongly consider re-signing him.

Robert Griffin IIIPossible Cap Casualties:

Washington currently doesn’t have enough cap space to use its franchise tag on Cousins, so there will be cap casualties here, and the most obvious one is the player that Cousins replaced — Robert Griffin III. Last spring, the team exercised RGIII’s fifth-year option, worth $16.155MM, but that salary remains guaranteed for injury only, and since Griffin is healthy, Washington should have no problem cutting him before March 9th and clearing that entire $16MM+ cap charge from its books.

Releasing – or trading – Griffin frees up the cap room necessary to tag Cousins, but with plenty of other offseason business to take care of, Washington will need to address the contracts for a few more players, either in the form of pay cuts or outright cuts.

Wide receiver Andre Roberts will see his cap number increase to $5MM in 2016, and no longer has any guaranteed salary on his contract, so I’d be surprised to see him stick around, especially after a 2015 season in which he caught just 11 balls. Cutting Roberts would create $3MM in cap savings.

Like Roberts, offensive lineman Shawn Lauvao is on the books for cap charge of $5MM in 2016, and didn’t play much last season, though in Lauvao’s case, that was the result of an ankle injury that landed him on injured reserve after just three weeks. He was a full-time starter at guard for Washington in 2014, and it’s possible the team still views him as a strong candidate to start going forward, but the opportunity to create $3MM in cap savings by cutting him will likely be considered.

On defense, Washington has several players that fall into the same boat as Lauvao — veterans like Jason Hatcher, Dashon Goldson, and Perry Riley were all starters for Washington in 2015, and may still be considered starters heading into 2016, but their cap hits will give the club pause.

Mike Jones of the Washington Post recently identified Hatcher and Goldson as players whose contracts Washington would like to rework — Goldson in particular has a cap number ($8MM, with no dead money) that likely outweighs his on-field contributions. But Washington likes his presence in the locker room and appears to want to keep him around. It’ll be interesting to see whether these guys ultimately return at reduced rates. Releasing Hatcher, Goldson, and Riley would create $16MM+ in cap savings, but I expect at least one or two of them will be back.

Three of Washington’s top five current cap hits belong to cornerback Chris Culliver and wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. By all accounts, the team wants to bring these players back for the 2016 season, but McCloughan and the front office could have a little leverage when it comes to reworking the contracts of Culliver and Garcon, whose respective salaries of $8MM and $7.6MM seem excessive, given their unspectacular 2015 performances.

Positions Of Need:

Washington’s most pressing areas of need this offseason are on the defensive side of the ball, where the team has capable contributors at multiple positions, but potential holes in both the front seven and the secondary.

While outside linebacker could be a position of strength for the team, particularly if Junior Galette re-signs and stays healthy, moving Trent Murphy into more of a situational role, inside linebacker is a spot Washington must address. William Compton, Mason Foster, Perry Riley, and Keenan Robinson were among the players to see substantial playing time in the middle in 2015, and none of them definitively proved that they’re capable of being a long-term starter.

With former Colts defensive coordinator Greg Manusky joining Washington’s staff last month, one pending free agent to keep an eye on is Jerrell Freeman, who enjoyed his best year in 2015. The Colts will likely make a strong effort to lock up their standout inside linebacker, but if he reaches the open market, he’s a player Washington should take a long, hard look at. If the club can’t secure a top free agent at the position, such as Freeman or Danny Trevathan, prioritizing the position in the draft makes sense — this year’s class is deep when it comes to front-seven players, and inside linebacker isn’t a premium position, so Washington could potentially land a starter on day two or even three.

Although Washington will explore additions on the defensive line in an effort to add some youth, that group will look fairly solid if Terrance Knighton and Jason Hatcher return, so the secondary will be a more pressing issue. In Chris Culliver, Bashaud Breeland, DeAngelo Hall, and Dashon Goldson, Washington has four potential starters, but there are plenty of question marks — Culliver and Goldson are coming off down years, and Hall is still adjusting to the safety position after making the move from cornerback.

With Will Blackmon and Cary Williams set to reach the open market, cornerback is one position Washington could explore free agency, and while the team may not splurge for a player like Trumaine Johnson or Sean Smith, there are plenty of second- or third-tier options that could appeal to the team, including Casey Hayward, Jeremy Lane, Nolan Carroll, and Antonio Cromartie. The draft class isn’t particularly overflowing with cornerback talent, but if Washington considers selecting one in the first round, Clemson’s Mackensie Alexander and Ohio State’s Eli Apple are among the possible options at No. 21.

At safety, perhaps defensive coordinator Joe Barry‘s time in San Diego could give Washington a leg up in the Eric Weddle sweepstakes. But if the club prefers to target a less expensive alternative, Isa Abdul-Quddus, Tyvon Branch, and Dwight Lowery – who has a Manusky connection – are a few of the many possibilities.

Many of Washington’s other potential positions of need will be dependent on how the team approaches free agency. Kirk Cousins almost certainly isn’t going anywhere, but if he does, quarterback shoots to the top of the team’s list of needs. If Alfred Morris departs in free agency and Andre Roberts is cut, the team will also be in the market for a potential No. 2 back and perhaps a complementary wideout.

On the offensive line, Washington appears to have three solid starters in Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff, and Morgan Moses. However, that leaves center and one guard spot up for grabs. Kory Lichtensteiger, Spencer Long, Shawn Lauvao, and perhaps UFA Josh LeRibeus could end up vying for those two openings, but if the team goes out and seriously addresses the interior line by adding a solid free agent or a high draft pick, suddenly one or two of those incumbent veterans will become expendable.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Jordan Reed (Vertical)With Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce having signed new contract extensions already this offseason, 2013 third-rounder Jordan Reed now has a blueprint for the sort of deal he can expect when his rookie contract expires. Reed racked up an impressive 87 receptions for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns in just 14 games in 2015, outperforming both Ertz and Kelce across the board.

Since Reed’s stock is soaring as he comes off a career year, Washington may be reluctant to engage its tight end in contract talks immediately, since there’s no reason he won’t view Ertz’s and Kelce’s deals as a baseline for his own extension. That could mean a deal approaching $10MM per year and $50MM in total value. Reed is certainly talented, but the club may want to see him stay healthy for another season before investing heavily in him.

Another pass-catcher, DeSean Jackson, is entering the final year of his current contract, but Jackson will be 30 when his deal expires. He also missed time in 2015 with injuries, and averaged a career-low 52.8 receiving yards per game when he did play, so Washington won’t be rushing to offer him a mega-deal. But a short-term extension could reduce Jackson’s 2016 cap hit, which is currently $9.25MM, and could keep the veteran wideout happy going forward. It’s something worth exploring if the price is right.

Washington may also want to consider extending defensive end Chris Baker, who had a career year in 2015. Pro Football Focus ranked Baker 22nd out of 123 interior defenders, and the 28-year-old earned impressive grades against the run and as a pass rusher. No defensive lineman saw more playing time for Washington in ’15 than Baker, who set a new career-high with six sacks. The team will want to get younger on the defensive line eventually, but that will probably mean moving on from players like Jason Hatcher and Terrance Knighton — Baker should still have a few more productive seasons in him.

Meanwhile, if Washington wants to restructure some contracts in order to create some extra cap flexibility for 2016, the team should avoid adjusting Trent Williams‘ or Ryan Kerrigan‘s deals. Both players will see their cap hits rise significantly after the 2016 season, so bumping this year’s number down and increasing those future-year hits will only create further problems down the line. Chris Culliver‘s contract is a more appealing candidate for a restructure.

Overall Outlook:

Washington spent several years as an NFL punchline, based on the team’s poor free agent and roster decisions, but new GM Scot McCloughan made some savvy moves without breaking the bank a year ago, and head coach Jay Gruden‘s decision to stick with Kirk Cousins over ownership favorite Robert Griffin III paid major dividends.

With a healthy Tony Romo expected in their lineup for 2016, the Cowboys will be poised to bounce back and make a run at Washington’s division crown, and the Giants – armed with a ton of cap space – and the Eagles – led by new head coach Doug Pederson – can’t be ruled out either in the NFC East. Still, Washington’s 2015 success doesn’t look like an anomaly. If Cousins returns for 2016 and doesn’t regress significantly, Washington should be prepared to contend again. Another series of smart personnel additions from McCloughan will be crucial as the franchise attempts to continue filling the holes on its roster.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2016 NFL Offseason Previews By Team

February 26th, 2016 at 11:20am CST by Luke Adams

Over the last few weeks, Pro Football Rumors has been taking a closer look at the 2016 offseason on a team-by-team basis. Our Offseason Outlook series focuses on each club’s key free agents, potential cap casualties, positions of need, and other issues facing teams this winter.

Just in case you missed our offseason preview for your favorite team, we’re rounding up all of our Offseason Outlook pieces in this post, which can be found anytime on our right-hand sidebar under “PFR Features.” We have several more teams to examine before free agency officially gets underway on March 9th, so if your team isn’t linked below, be sure to keep a close eye on PFR — it’ll be coming soon.

Here are the links to our 2016 NFL Offseason Outlook pieces to date:

AFC East:

AFC North:

AFC South:

AFC West:

NFC East:

NFC North:

NFC South:

NFC West:

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Falcons

February 25th, 2016 at 10:22pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Matt Ryan, QB: $23,750,000
  2. Julio Jones, WR: $15,900,000
  3. Paul Soliai, DT: $6,837,500
  4. Sam Baker, T: $6,400,000 (dead money)
  5. Tyson Jackson, DT: $6,350,000
  6. Roddy White, WR: $6,137,500
  7. Andy Levitre, G: $5,375,000
  8. Jake Matthews, T: $4,480,773
  9. Jon Asamoah, G: $3,900,000 (dead money)
  10. Devin Hester, WR/KR: $3,833,334
  11. Brooks Reed, OLB: $3,440,000
  12. William Moore, S: $3,300,000 (dead money)
  13. Vic Beasley, DE: $3,294,370
  14. Matt Bryant, K: $2,870,833
  15. Matt Bosher, P: $2,700,000

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • Front office: Parted ways with director of player personnel Lionel Vital; hired former Chiefs assistant GM Joel Collier as director of pro personnel.
  • Scouting department: Hired former GMs Phil Emery and Ruston Webster as national scouts.
  • Offensive staff: Lost WRs coach Terry Robiskie, who became Titans’ offensive coordinator.
  • Defensive staff: Hired Cowboys DBs coach Jerome Henderson as defensive passing game coordinator.

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

Last offseason, the Falcons’ hiring of Dan Quinn as head coach was the worst-kept secret in football for what felt like forever. After the Super Bowl, however, the Seahawks defensive coordinator finally was able to put pen to paper with Atlanta.Dan Quinn

A former defensive line coach, Quinn led the league’s top defense in Seattle in each of the last two seasons as the club’s defensive coordinator. While his stint with the Seahawks had an unfortunate ending, Quinn was regarded as one of the leading head coaching candidates of the offseason. Some expected that the highly touted defensive mind would vault the Falcons to the NFC South title, but it wound up being an up-and-down season in Atlanta, one that resulted in an 8-8 record.

At the outset of the year, it looked as though the Falcons and Panthers would go neck and neck for supremacy in the division and conference. However, after a 5-0 start, the Falcons started slipping. By Week 13, Atlanta had gone from undefeated to .500, and that’s exactly where they finished.

Even though the Falcons did not meet the expectations set for them in the fall, there were still a number of bright spots. On offense, Julio Jones turned in another stellar season and once again proved why he’s one of the league’s premier wide receivers. In the backfield, the Falcons got production at the running back position, but not from the running back they were banking on. Rookie tailback Tevin Coleman won the starting job in training camp but those plans were scuttled when he suffered a concussion in Week 2. From that point forward, Devonta Freeman took over the job and established himself as a rising star. For the season, Freeman racked up 1,061 yards on the ground and added 578 receiving yards.

On defense, Desmond Trufant turned in one heck of a performance, finishing the year as the No. 13 cornerback in the league according to the advanced metrics at Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Trufant allowed only 32 receptions, putting him right behind Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman‘s league-leading 31 (among qualified corners). Overall, though, the Falcons’ defense finished in the middle of the pack in both passing and rushing yards allowed.

Can Quinn & Co. overtake the Panthers as NFC South champions in 2016? Here’s a look at their options this spring:

Key Free Agents:

Restricted free agent tackle Ryan Schraeder may require at least a second-round tender for Atlanta to keep him after an impressive third season. Schraeder receiving the second-round tender would cost the Falcons ~$2.47MM, but would allow another team to sign him while surrendering only a second-round pick. An ex-UDFA, Schraeder made $585K last season. A first-round tender figures to cost in the neighborhood of $3.5MM, and that could be the safer route for the Falcons to take if they really want to make sure they keep Schraeder.

Fellow RFAs Paul Worrilow and Nathan Stupar will probably be retained as well. Worrilow may have started for the Falcons out of necessity in 2015, but he was a starter nonetheless. Stupar, meanwhile, had a solid year for the Falcons under the minimum salary and he could be back on something a little more lucrative in 2016.

Adrian ClaybornIn 2014, Adrian Clayborn was hoping to establish himself in his contract year, but he didn’t get the opportunity to show what he could do before hitting the open market. The defensive end played only one game in ’14 before being placed on IR by the Buccaneers. Clayborn later landed a one-year deal with the Falcons, giving him an opportunity to bring his value back up to where it should be.

Clayborn, 28 in July, turned in a full 16-game season and showed that he can be an effective rotation piece. Even though he’s not the player that the Bucs envisioned when they took him No. 20 overall in 2011, Clayborn has given himself some juice heading into free agency this time around. Clayborn could go for another one-year deal to try and get paid in the spring of 2017, but he might be better served by getting the best of both worlds and going for a modest two-year deal. Either way, the Falcons should have some interest, once they take care of their more pressing priorities.

Kroy Biermann has been with the Falcons ever since his entry into the league in 2008. Last year, Biermann had an opportunity to leave but re-signed with Atlanta a few weeks after the opening of free agency. Will he re-up again? Quinn will probably look to bring more of his type of guys into the mix, and that could mean a departure for the 30-year-old (31 in September).

Biermann started a career-high 15 games for the Falcons in 2014, racking up 77 tackles and 4.5 sacks to go along with a forced fumble. In 867 defensive snaps, he recorded a -5.7 grade on Pro Football Focus (subscription required), but that was largely due to a poor rating in pass coverage — he was an above-average run defender and held his own as a pass rusher. This past season, he played in a reserve role, and that’s probably what awaits him with his 2016 team, whether it’s the Falcons or another club.

In September 2015, the Falcons landed Jake Long on a one-year deal. Unfortunately, the former No. 1 overall pick could not give the team a full season of production. Long did not make his debut until December 13th, giving him a combined 11 games of action over the last two years. Now, Long is eligible for free agency once again and he could be on his way to team No. 3. If he stays with the Falcons, he likely won’t have an opportunity to start, with Jake Matthews and Schraeder penciled in at the two tackle spots.

O’Brien Schofield followed Quinn to Atlanta and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him re-sign for another season. The linebacker probably won’t be getting a starting job with the Falcons in 2016, but he can provide the team with some veteran leadership and some guidance, given his familiarity with Quinn’s defensive scheme.

Veteran linebacker Philip Wheeler could be back for another season. Cornerback Phillip Adams, meanwhile, seems less likely to return after a so-so 2015. Center Gino Gradkowski, whom Atlanta plucked off waivers in September, could be welcomed back once the team takes care of its top free agents.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Falcons will reportedly release defensive tackle Paul Soliai on or after the start of the new league year on March 9. By waiting until March 9, the Falcons will absorb Soliai’s dead money hit — a charge of $4.2MM — on their 2016 salary cap. If the club opts to designate Soliai as a post-June 1 cut, it will take on dead money totals of $1.4MM in 2016 and and $2.8MM in 2017.

Having just finished the second season of a five-year deal, the 32-year-old Soliai was poised to earn a base salary of $4.5MM, accompanied by a cap figure of $6.9MM. From the Falcons’ perspective, that cap charge was likely excessive, as Soliai’s snap count in Dan Quinn‘s defense had dropped to 357 in 2015 (down from 502 in Mike Smith‘s unit in 2014). Add in the fact that Soliai wasn’t overly effective, grading as just the No. 57 interior defender last season per Pro Football Focus, and it probably makes sense that Atlanta is cutting bait. The Falcons did try to get Soliai to take a pay cut, but the two sides could not come to terms.Roddy White

Could Roddy White be the next veteran to go? The wide receiver was once the heart and soul of the Falcons’ passing attack, but he slumped through his worst season as a starter in 2015. After catching 43 passes for 506 yards in 16 games, White could be a cap casualty.

White’s salaries for 2016 and 2017 are relatively modest – $2.75MM and $3MM, respectively – but he can earn $1.5MM in bonuses each season as well — $1MM for making the 53-man roster, then up to an additional $500K in per-game roster bonuses. Throw in $1.888MM in annual prorated signing bonus money and White’s cap numbers for the next two seasons exceed $6MM, making him the sixth-most expensive player on the roster. In order for those cap charge to be viable, the Falcons would have to count on White bouncing back and exceeding his 2015 numbers, but it’s not clear that sort of rebound is in the cards for the veteran wideout.

The Falcons acquired veteran guard Andy Levitre from the Titans in early September with the hopes that he could get back to his old form. Unfortunately, Levitre didn’t do much to help hold down the fort on the interior of the offensive line. Levitre restructured his deal shortly after joining the Falcons, but that might not be enough to save his place with the squad this year. If they cut him, the Falcons can save roughly $4MM against the cap.

Positions Of Need:

The Falcons were supposed to have an aggressive defense just like Quinn’s in Seattle. That, ultimately, didn’t turn out to be the case. After some promising results early on, the Falcons’ D wound up finishing last in the NFL in sacks with 19 in total. The Falcons badly need an edge rusher and there are free agent options out there. If he reaches the open market somehow, then Muhammad Wilkerson would make a tremendous addition for the Falcons. Fellow Meadowlands resident Jason Pierre-Paul is probably more likely to reach the open market, however, and he wouldn’t break the bank.

Linebacker Bruce Irvin told the media in January that he would take less money on his second contract to stay with the Seahawks. However, one has to wonder if that’s really the case with the Falcons lurking and in need of linebackers. Atlanta could offer Irvin a reunion with Quinn and also a return to his hometown. If they can’t land Irvin, someone like Rolando McClain would also be an intriguing pickup, provided that he is not retained by the Cowboys. For what it’s worth, defensive coordinator Richard Smith previously served as the Broncos’ linebackers coach, so he’s familiar with pending free agent Danny Trevathan.

When Matt Ryan had Tony Gonzalez as a security blanket, things were clicking in Atlanta. In his five seasons in Atlanta, Gonzalez secured 409 receptions for 4,187 yards and 35 touchdowns. Last year, Jacob Tamme recorded 59 receptions for 647 yards, but that didn’t quite replicate the spark that the team has been missing since 2013. The Falcons would like to figure something out at tight end as they look to resuscitate their once lethal passing attack.

In the secondary, the Falcons have to figure out a solution at safety. William Moore, a former Pro Bowler, was lackluster in 2015 and he was handed his walking papers earlier this month. Eric Berry would be nothing short of a home run for the Falcons, but he seems likely to get the franchise tag from the Chiefs if the two sides can’t hammer out a multi-year deal. The Falcons may have to aim lower, but we expect that they’ll still spend to bolster the position.

Desmond TrufantIf the Falcons say goodbye to White this offseason, then they’ll have to look into getting some new blood at wide receiver. Travis Benjamin seems less and less likely to stay with the Browns at this point and he’d make one heck of a No. 2 option opposite of Julio Jones.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Former first-round pick Desmond Trufant could be an extension candidate for the Falcons this offseason. The cornerback is coming of a strong year in which Pro Football Focus (sub. req’d) rated him as the 13th-best corner in the NFL. Trufant appears to be a hit from the 2013 draft class and the Falcons would be wise to lock him down before he could get really big bucks down the road.

Still, Trufant is eligible for a fifth-year option in 2017, meaning that if the Falcons can’t reach common ground with him on a longer-term deal this offseason, they could simply exercise their option and revisit negotiations a year from now.

Overall Outlook:

Quinn’s first year in Atlanta didn’t go quite as planned, but the early portion of the season showed that there’s plenty to get excited about going forward. If the Falcons can use their cap space and flexibility wisely, they can put themselves in position to get back to the postseason in 2016.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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