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Offseason Outlook: New Orleans Saints

February 18th, 2016 at 10:00pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Drew Brees, QB: $30,000,000
  2. Junior Galette, OLB: $12,100,000 (dead money)
  3. Jairus Byrd, S: $10,900,000
  4. Cameron Jordan, DE: $8,000,000
  5. Keenan Lewis, CB: $6,350,000
  6. Max Unger, C: $6,200,000
  7. Marques Colston, WR: $5,900,000
  8. Brandon Browner, CB: $6,300,000
  9. Jahri Evans, G: $5,100,000 (dead money)
  10. Zach Strief, T: $4,543,750
  11. C.J. Spiller, RB: $4,500,000
  12. Thomas Morstead, P: $4,450,000
  13. Mark Ingram, RB: $4,000,000
  14. Dannell Ellerbe, ILB: $3,200,000
  15. Kenny Vaccaro, S: $2,998,770

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • Head coach: Retained Sean Payton, despite reported interest from other teams.
  • Offensive staff: Hired former Dolphins HC Dan Campbell as TEs coach/assistant HC.
  • Defensive coordinator: Retained Dennis Allen, who took over job during 2015 season.
  • Defensive staff: Hired former Rams DC Peter Guinta as senior defensive assistant.

Draft:

  • No. 12 overall pick
  • Owe sixth-round pick to Washington in deal for CB Damian Swann.

Other:

Overview:

A second consecutive 7-9 season in New Orleans served to expose the two major problems in the Saints’ organization: the failure of general manager Mickey Loomis & Co. to properly manage the salary cap, and the club’s utter collapse on the defensive side of the ball. Both issues have contributed to New Orleans’ failure to reach the postseason since 2013, and it’s fair to wonder if either problem will be corrected as the team heads into 2016.Mickey Loomis (Vertical)

The Saints are currently set to enter the offseason will less than $8MM in cap space (even after restructuring the contracts of both linebacker Dannell Ellerbe and defensive end Cameron Jordan), and a lack of financial flexibility has long plagued the club as it seeks to bring in free agents. The result of that mismanagement is a team that lacks depth, is forced to release still-valuable players (like guard Jahri Evans), and is constantly reworking deals while living on the edge of salary cap purgatory.

Even a quick glance at New Orleans’ books shows a club in financial ruin, a fate which lies on the shoulders of Loomis and rest of the front office. The Saints will carry the most dead money in the league by a wide margin ($22.2MM, about $7MM more than the second-place Falcons), and quarterback Drew Brees‘ 2016 cap charge of $30MM is the largest in the NFL. We’ll discuss ways in which New Orleans can not only lower that hit, but increase their cap space overall, but the point stands: the Saints need to take a hard look at the way they do business, and possibly consider revamping their power structure if the same problems persist.

On the field, the Saints’ defense was clearly the worst in NFL last season, ranking last in both DVOA and scoring, and next-to-last in yards. At 26.1% below average (per DVOA), the unit ranks as the NFL’s worst defense since 2000 — only five other clubs have topped the 20% mark, and none reached New Orleans’ lows. As such, defensive coordinator Rob Ryan was fired midseason. Former Raiders head coach Dennis Allen took over play-calling duties, and he’ll keep the DC title heading into next season.

Lest we remain completely negative, it’s important to note that the Saints didn’t completely bottom out in 2015, and that’s mostly thanks to the offense, which ranked second in yards, eighth in points, and seventh in DVOA. New Orleans’ offensive unit has placed inside the top 12 of DVOA during every season of the Brees/Sean Payton era, and given that Payton will return to the sidelines after flirting with other vacancies, that doesn’t figure to change.

Key Free Agents:

At the ripe age of 35, tight end Ben Watson posted the best season of his 12-year career, setting highs in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. But despite those lofty numbers, Watson’s age will likely prevent him from earning big on the open market. A two-year deal is probably his ceiling, with a salary under $3MM attached. Watson did recently say that he’s had talks with both Loomis and Payton, so perhaps a reunion with the Saints is in the offing.Ben Watson (Vertical)

Starting his first game since 2011, backup quarterback Luke McCown completed 32-of-39 passes for 355 yards during a narrow Week 3 loss to the Panthers. It was a solid showing — especially given McCown’s four-year respite — but the veteran signal-caller’s season went downhill from there, as he underwent season-ending back surgery in November. The 34-year-old recently said that he’d love to return to New Orleans for a fourth-season, and Mike Triplett of ESPN.com believes the Saints will indeed re-sign McCown, allowing 2015 third-round pick Garrett Grayson another year to develop as the club’s No. 3 quarterback.

The Saints have some decisions to make at the running back position, where Tim Hightower, Khiry Robinson (restricted), Kendall Hunter, and Travaris Cadet are all free agents. The status of C.J. Spiller (covered below) will have some effect on who New Orleans decides to keep around, but Robinson will almost surely be back on a low tender as he recovers from a broken leg. Hightower, meanwhile, was highly impressive as the club’s lead back during the final three games of the year, averaging 4.32 yards per carry and scoring three times. He’ll be 30 years old when the season starts, so I doubt he’ll get much in the way of outside offers, meaning he could return as a nice complement to Mark Ingram.

Even during his age-35 season, defensive tackle Kevin Williams was still productive, grading as the No. 33 interior defender among 123 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus. After remaining remarkably durable for most of his career, Williams has missed 10 games during the last two seasons, so his age might be catching up with him. Nonetheless, he played more than 52% of the Saints’ snaps last year, so there’s no reason he can’t keep playing if he so chooses — he was non-committal about his future as of last November, but sounded like he enjoyed his time in New Orleans.

28-year-old safety Rafael Bush missed virtually all of last season, managing just 22 snaps before being placed on injured reserve with a torn pectoral muscle. Still, he’d been a valuable reserve in years past, starting in place of Jairus Byrd while the latter dealt with injuries, and playing in three-safety sets along with Byrd and Kenny Vaccaro. The Saints thought highly enough of Bush to match an offer sheet proffered by the Falcons prior to the 2014 season, and now that he’s a free agent, I expect New Orleans will attempt to retain him. But as Bush noted when he signed that Atlanta offer sheet, he’d like the opportunity to start, something that won’t happen with the Saints.

Former first-round pick Kyle Wilson has never lived up to his draft billing, but the 28-year-old cornerback is an important reminder that high draft choices aren’t necessarily “busts” if they don’t become stars. As Joel Erickson of the Advocate wrote last fall, Wilson stepped up in the secondary when others were injured, playing outside, in the slot, and even at free safety. Perhaps he shouldn’t be counted on as a starter, but every club needs depth pieces – or as Erickson dubs them in his piece, “fix-it” men – to get through the slog of the season.

Signed in mid-October after the Saints cut Zach Hocker, kicker Kai Forbath wasn’t great during the final 10 games of the season, missing four of 13 field goals, including two from inside 40 yards. Teams in cap trouble can’t afford to spend much on specialists, however, so perhaps Forbath will be retained on a minimum salary deal. I’d expect the Saints to bring in some competition though.

Possible Cap Casualties:

We’ll start with an easy one — cornerback Brandon Browner is expected to be released, but because his ensuing dead money will accelerate onto the Saints’ current cap, the club will apparently wait until the new league year starts on March 9 to process the move. From a production standpoint, it’s a simple call, as Pro Football Focus rated Browner dead last in the league among 113 qualified cornerbacks. But releasing him will save the Saints just $950K (against $5.35MM in dead money) unless he’s designated as a post-June 1 cut, spreading the dead money hit out over the next two seasons.Marques Colston (Vertical)

Set to enter his 11th season in New Orleans, wide receiver Marques Colston is a candidate to either be released or see his salary reduced, as he’s due to count $5.9MM against the cap. The Saints would save $3.2MM by cutting him, and given his production during the past three seasons – he’s averaged just 60 receptions for 788 yards and five touchdowns since 2013 – it’s a move the club has to consider.

Another player selected in the seventh round of the 2006 draft – offensive tackle Zach Strief – could also be on the chopping block. The 32-year-old Strief has made it clear that he’ll retire if he’s let go by New Orleans, and given that he’s due about $4.5MM in 2016, a release is certainly a possibility. But another option, in my opinion, could be to ask Strief to take a pay cut with the intention of moving him back to guard, where he spent the first five years of his career. He’d be an upgrade at that spot, and 2015 first-round pick Andrus Peat could take over at right tackle.

Running back C.J. Spiller was the Saints’ key free agent addition on offense, but his first season in New Orleans was a disappointment, as he managed only 351 yards from scrimmage (with nearly 25% of that total coming on a memorable 80-yard reception in overtime to beat the Cowboys in Week 4). He’d almost certainly be designated as a post-June 1 release if cut, saving the club $3.25MM in the process. Loomis was non-committal on Spiller’s status during a January press conference, claiming that he “[couldn’t] really say” if the running back was a part of the Saints’ future. But the GM did say recently that he expects Spiller to rebound from a litany on injuries in 2016.

Veteran punter Thomas Morstead certainly wasn’t terrible in 2015 (he ranked 10th in net punting average), but his cap charge of $4.45MM is good for 10th on the Saints’ roster, and is second-highest among all NFL punters. That’s probably not a palatable hit for a club that is so close to going over the salary cap. Morstead could be asked to restructure, but if he’s cut, Brandon Fields — who filled in during the two games Morstead was banged up — would be a cheaper option.

Positions Of Need:

Unsurprisingly, most of the Saints’ needs are on the defensive side of the ball, so we’ll start there, specifically along the defensive line. New Orleans finished 31st in the league in adjusted sack rate, and 25th in sacks with only 31 (nearly a third of which came from one player, defensive end Cameron Jordan). The first order of business will be finding someone to play opposite Jordan, be it in free agency or through the draft.

Without the cap space to target a top free agent end like Olivier Vernon, the Saints will have to find cheaper options, one of whom could be Vernon’s Dolphins teammate Derrick Shelby, who posted 3.5 sacks during limited playing time last season. The Rams’ William Hayes, often overshadowed by other members of the Los Angeles line, or the Giants’ Robert Ayers, once thought of as a first-round bust but now a productive contributor, could also be fits.

Finding a three-technique defensive tackle to eventually (or perhaps, immediately) replace Kevin Williams should also be a priority, but unless the Saints want to find the money to pay Nick Fairley, or take a chance on someone such as a rehabbing Brandon Thompson, there isn’t much available on the open market.

Instead, New Orleans should use its No. 12 overall pick to address its defensive line concerns, and the club is in luck, because the 2016 draft class is thought to be deepest along the front four. Ohio State’s Joey Bosa will be gone, but Clemson’s Shaq Lawson, Eastern Kentucky’s Noah Spence, and Michigan State’s Shilique Calhoun could all help at defensive end, while Alabama’s A’Shawn Robinson and Louisville’s Sheldon Rankins could be available at tackle. Finding a pass-rusher, either from the edge or the interior, in the first round should be the Saints’ main goal, especially since the draft choice will be both cheap and controllable for the long-term via the fifth-year option.

The Saints are probably set at linebacker with a starting trio of Dannell Ellerbe, Stephone Anthony, and Hau’oli Kikaha, but adding a draft pick here wouldn’t be a bad idea. Ellerbe missed 10 games with injury last season, and New Orleans suffered from a lack of depth in his absence. Moreover, Ellerbe, at 30 years old, isn’t the long-term answer on the weakside, so the Saints should try to find his replacement.

The other pressing need on the New Orleans defense might be at cornerback, though the return of a group of players — Keenan Lewis, P.J. Williams, and Damian Swann — could help eliminate the obligation to add talent in the secondary. Still, the free agent corner market is relatively deep, and if the amount of available talent dilutes the market enough that prices begin to drop, the Saints could stand to add a piece.

There aren’t as many areas of concern on the offensive side of the ball, but one position group that could use an upgrade is the offensive line (though overall, the unit was solid, ranking fifth in adjusted sack rate and 13th in adjusted line yards). Following the release of Jahri Evans, the Saints need to find at least one guard, and depending on how the club feels about restricted free agent Tim Lelito, perhaps two. As I noted above, Zach Strief could be a candidate to move inside, and there’s also a decent crop of collegiate guards that look to be available in the middle rounds, per CBSSports.com’s draft board.

Wide receiver is another area that could be addressed (pending a decision on Marques Colston), but I’m guessing the Saints still have high hopes for Brandon Coleman, and might look to pair him with Brandin Cooks while Willie Snead handles the slot. While the free agent receiver class is almost completely barren, New Orleans could spend a late-round pick at the position.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

The contract of quarterback Drew Brees is the single most important issue the Saints must tackle during the next calendar year. Ideally, the club would extend Brees before the start of the new league year, lowering his enormous $30MM cap charge in the process. Loomis said on February 16 that the Saints would like to sign Brees to a long-term deal, a concept that Brees himself seemed amenable to in early January.Drew Brees (Vertical)

In negotiations, Brees would have every right to ask for a deal similar to the ones inked by Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers during the past 12 months: four years, ~$85MM, with $35MM in guarantees. At 37 years old, Brees is a bit older than that trio was when they signed their extensions (Manning, at 34, was the oldest of the cadre), but there’s no indication that his play has significantly declined, so he should be able to request top-of-the-market value. If the Saints are unable to extend Brees, the cost of the franchise tag in 2017 would be untenable ($43.2MM), so the quarterback will have real leverage in contract discussions.

Elsewhere on the roster, New Orleans could look to lock up two players who were both selected in the third round of the 2013 draft — left tackle Terron Armstead and defensive tackle John Jenkins. Because neither was a first-round pick, the Saints don’t have a fifth-year option to wield, so both players are projected to enter free agency after the 2016 season.

Armstead took over as the Saints’ left tackle in 2014, and went on to start 27 games over the next two seasons. Payton recently said that he wouldn’t trade Armstead for any other lineman in the league, and New Orleans should be able to lock him up without reaching the $12MM mark set by Trent Williams and Tyron Smith.

Jenkins, meanwhile, isn’t quite the player Armstead is, but he’s a solid contributor, having played 50% of the club’s defensive snaps last season (third-most among Saints defensive lineman). He’s much better against the run than the pass, grading as a top-40 interior defender in the run game, per Pro Football Focus. Jenkins isn’t a star, but extending productive players at below-market rates before they’re on the brink of free agency would be a good first step for a New Orleans franchise that needs to reset its salary cap thinking.

Speaking of cap space, safety Jairus Byrd is a candidate to have his contract restructured in order to help the Saints’ books. Byrd is due a $7.4MM base salary in 2016, all of which is now guaranteed. Converting, say, $6MM of that total into a signing bonus, and spreading it out over the next four years of Byrd’s deal, would save $4.5MM this offseason — not much for most teams, but New Orleans could use all the wiggle room it can get.

Finally, the Saints must make a decision on safety Kenny Vaccaro‘s 2017 fifth-year option. Vaccaro hasn’t repeated his excellent first-year production, but he’s still very valuable, and has started 44 of 48 games during his career. I expect New Orleans to exercise the option.

Overall Outlook:

Obviously, the Saints have a short window in which to compete, given the age of quarterback Drew Brees, but there’s simply no way to be successful when employing the salary cap techniques used by New Orleans. Not only does such short-sighted thinking harm the long-term future of the franchise, but it’s hard to sustain even year-to-year success when new players are constantly being shuffled in and out.

The Panthers (obviously) and the Buccaneers (with young quarterback Jameis Winston) are set up to contend in the NFC South for the foreseeable future. The Saints – and Falcons, to an extent – are seemingly in a constant state of roster limbo, pinning their hopes on a franchise quarterback while deploying little in the way of resources elsewhere. New Orleans needs to take a long look in the mirror and take the necessary steps to clean up its salary cap, or else the club won’t be close to a postseason berth again for some time.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Raiders

February 17th, 2016 at 10:00pm CST by Rory Parks

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Michael Crabtree, WR: $11,000,000
  2. Rodney Hudson, C: $7,700,000
  3. Dan Williams, DT: $7,500,000
  4. Austin Howard, T: $5,900,000
  5. Curtis Lofton, ILB: $5,500,000
  6. Amari Cooper, WR: $5,150,709
  7. Khalil Mack, DE/OLB: $5,093,728
  8. Sebastian Janikowski, K: $3,960,000
  9. Marcel Reece, RB: $3,530,839
  10. D.J. Hayden, CB: $3,284,813
  11. Malcolm Smith, OLB: $3,000,000
  12. Lee Smith, TE: $2,750,000
  13. Jamize Olawale, FB: $2,190,000
  14. Roy Helu, RB: $2,000,000
  15. Mychal Rivera, TE: $1,673,213

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • None.

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

After appearing in Super Bowl XXXVII at the end of the 2002 season, the Raiders have failed to finish above .500 even once. Their play during that time has ranged from decidedly mediocre to outright terrible, but in 2015, Raiders fans may have finally glimpsed a light at the end of their tunnel. Under new head coach Jack Del Rio, the team finished just 7-9, but there are some reasons for hope.Derek Carr

Second-year quarterback Derek Carr showed that he might well be the team’s long-awaited answer under center, as he completed over 61% of his passes for nearly 4,000 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, posting a 91.1 rating in the process. He immediately established a rapport with rookie wideout Amari Cooper, who became the first Oakland wide receiver to top 1,000 yards since Randy Moss did it in 2005. Cooper, Carr, and third-year running back Latavius Murray were all named to the Pro Bowl, giving the Raiders a young and talented trio at the skill positions. That’s not to mention young tight end Clive Walford, who showed promise in his rookie campaign, and receiver Michael Crabtree, who was brought in on a modest one-year contract but who signed a four-year, $35MM extension in December.

On the defensive side of the ball, Khalil Mack became a full-fledged superstar, picking up 15 sacks and grading out as the best edge defender in the league, per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required). PFF suggested that Mack was even better against the run than he was against the pass, and his efforts earned him a First-Team All-Pro nod — at two separate positions (defensive end and outside linebacker).

However, the defense as a whole finished in the middle of the pack, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, as did the offense, so there is room for improvement on both sides of the ball. Luckily for the Raiders, they have a ton of cap room with which to address their concerns, and GM Reggie McKenzie, who was on the hot seat not long ago, has now orchestrated two consecutive drafts that have paid immediate dividends. With continuity in the coaching staff, a GM who seems to have found his footing, and a roster stocked with a fair amount of young talent, the Raiders could compete for a playoff spot in 2016.

Key Free Agents:

Not only are the Raiders flush with cap space, but they are also fortunate in that they do not have many of their own free agents that they absolutely need to re-sign. Interestingly enough, the most important player for the club to keep under contract this year might be its punter, Marquette King.

King has established himself as one of the best punters in the league, and it would not be unreasonable for him to look at Sam Koch‘s recent five-year, $18.75MM extension as a starting point in contract negotiations. I would think a five-year deal worth around $20MM in total value would make sense for King, and while such a contract would hardly make a dent on the Raiders’ available cap room, it would ensure that the team keeps one of its most underrated weapons under club control for the foreseeable future. The franchise tag may also be in play here.

The Raiders will probably also want to bring back left tackle Donald Penn. Penn might not be elite, but he’s squarely in the second tier of the league’s left tackles, and he finished the 2015 season as the NFL’s 11th-best lineman out of 77 eligible players, per PFF.Donald Penn He is also eminently dependable, having started all 16 games every season since 2008. The nine-year veteran spent the first seven seasons of his career with Tampa Bay before coming to terms with Oakland on a modest two-year pact prior to the 2014 season, a deal that ultimately earned him a little over $10MM. He has stated that he wants to retire a Raider, and in fact expressed some frustration earlier this month that the team had not yet contacted him about a new contract.

Although the Raiders are taking their time when it comes to discussing an extension for Penn, there aren’t many tackles on the free agent market that would represent a clear upgrade. Russell Okung could be an intriguing option, but his injury history is troubling and his name-recognition value has exceeded his on-field production in recent seasons (although he has been a strong pass blocker when healthy). The Bills’ Cordy Glenn is a prime candidate for the franchise tag, which would effectively take him off the market, and outside of Kelechi Osemele, whose experience at left tackle is limited, there is no one else that would be a better fit for the Raiders than Penn.

The top two tackle prospects in the draft, Laremy Tunsil and Ronnie Stanley, will likely be off the board by the time the Raiders’ No. 14 selection rolls around, though Michigan State’s Jack Conklin may still be available. But given that the Raiders have more pressing needs on the defensive side of the ball—particularly in the secondary—I would expect the Raiders and Penn to work something out within the next couple of weeks, and a two- or three-year deal with an average annual value of roughly $7MM would be a reasonable agreement for both parties.

Wideouts Andre Holmes and Rod Streater have both shown flashes at various times in their Oakland careers, but at this point it appears as though the Raiders are prepared to move on without them. The team is probably more than prepared to part ways with offensive lineman J’Marcus Webb as well. Menelik Watson and Austin Howard will compete for the starting right tackle spot, and last year’s fourth-round draft pick, Jon Feliciano, could fit in at right guard. While the team would probably not be averse to bringing back Khalif Barnes for some depth, Webb has never been an especially capable NFL player and will probably struggle to stick on anyone’s roster next season.

Given the Raiders’ deficiencies in the secondary, which have been compounded by the retirement of surefire Hall-of-Famer Charles Woodson, the team will likely try to retain at least one of Taylor Mays and Larry Asante. Oakland will also hope for a bounce-back year from Nate Allen, whom they recently released and re-signed to a more team-friendly deal. Allen had his 2015 season cut short by a torn MCL and ultimately appeared in only five games in his first year in silver-and-black.

The Raiders gave Aldon Smith a second chance when he was released by the 49ers in August, and he showed glimpses of his fearsome pass rush ability, racking up 3.5 sacks in nine games with Oakland. However, he was hit with a one-year suspension in November, meaning that he can’t even be around the Raiders’ facility until next November. Nonetheless, the Raiders knew when they signed Smith that he would be a long-term project, and both sides have shown an express interest in continuing their relationship. I foresee Smith and the Raiders ultimately striking an incentive-laden deal at some point in the offseason, and although Smith may not contribute much if and when he returns to the field in 2016, the 2017 Raiders could feature Smith and Mack as bookend pass rushers, a prospect that would certainly keep opposing quarterbacks up at night.

Positions Of Need:

As noted above, the Raiders are in dire need of secondary help, both at cornerback and at safety. 2013 first-round draft pick D.J. Hayden has been a disaster, and Mays and Asante are average at best. Even at full health, Allen has never been a consistent performer, and although cornerback David Amerson was a pleasant surprise after being claimed on waivers last September, he is just one year removed from being rated as the worst cornerback in the league per PFF’s metrics. McKenzie will certainly have his work cut out for him as he tries to turn around one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses.

Luckily, free agency offers a number of potential solutions in that regard. At the safety position, the market is headlined by Eric Weddle, Eric Berry, Reggie Nelson, Tashaun Gipson, and George Iloka, and the recently-released William Moore would also be an interesting possibility to replace the veteran leadership void left by Woodson. Although Berry may re-sign with Kansas City or get the franchise tag before hitting the market, Weddle will almost certainly be available, and it currently appears as though Nelson and Gipson will both test the free agent waters as well.

This year’s free agent cornerback class is also quite deep. The Raiders could choose from a list of names that includes Sean Smith, Janoris Jenkins, Prince Amukamara, Greg Toler, Leon Hall, Casey Heyward, and Trumaine Johnson. Josh Norman could also theoretically be available, but Carolina is likely to hit him with the franchise tag. Oakland would be in pretty good shape if it could come away with at least two of the above-named defensive backs, and if the Raiders supplement those signings with a couple of second-tier options—names like James Ihedigbo and Shareece Wright jump immediately to mind—as well as a draft selection or two, they could see a marked improvement.

It is worth noting that the Raiders were in pursuit of a number of big-ticket free agents last year, but they failed to land most of their high-priced targets. Given that they now appear to be a team on the rise, the Raiders may be a more attractive option to some of the more noteworthy players on the market this time around.

As far as the draft is concerned, top cornerback prospects Jalen Ramsey and Vernon Hargreaves will likely not fall to Oakland, but Clemson’s Mackensie Alexander would be a quality option. At safety, Miles Killebrew and Jeremy Cash are potential Day 2 selections, but neither is particularly strong in coverage, and Oakland would probably be better-served addressing its safety needs in free agency this year.

While the offensive line is not a pressing issue at the moment—assuming, of course, the Raiders re-sign Penn—the Raiders would do well to bring in a young lineman or two (ESPN’s Mel Kiper, in fact, has mocked Conklin to the Raiders in his first mock draft). If Penn is not retained, then the O-line suddenly becomes a cause for concern and would need to be meaningfully addressed in the draft, free agency, or both. We touched on some of the team’s options for offensive linemen above, and it’s also worth pointing out that, if Penn does not return, former Giant Will Beatty may provide similar services at a similar (or lesser) rate.

The Raiders could also use help at inside linebacker, as Curtis Lofton was a disappointment in his first season with the club. Although it’s probably not enough of a need to use a first-round pick on a linebacker, a player like Ohio State’s Joshua Perry is worth keeping an eye on during the second day of the draft, especially since this year’s crop of free agent linebackers is relatively weak (plus, 2015 fifth-rounder Neiron Ball could end up seeing more playing time, especially if he can put together a strong offseason).

It might also behoove the club to find a running back in the middle rounds of the draft or free agency to keep Murray fresh. An ESPN report from a few days ago indicated that Oakland would do just that.

Possible Cap Casualties:

Although the Raiders do not need to shed any salary in order to be active in free agency, to retain their own free agents, and to conduct other offseason business, that doesn’t mean that they should avoid making cuts or purusing restructures where necessary. That’s especially true given that the team may want to begin looking at long-term extensions for Carr and Mack next year and for Cooper the year after that. At the moment, it appears as though all of those contracts will be hugely expensive.

That being said, there is simply not much the Raiders can or should do right now in terms of modifications or cuts. In fact, Spotrac’s list of potential cap casualties released on the first day of 2016 featured no Raiders players.Curtis Lofton

Curtis Lofton might have been a release candidate, but given that the Raiders allowed $3.5MM of his 2016 $5.35MM base salary to become fully guaranteed last week, it is apparent that Lofton will remain on the club. The Raiders might also consider cutting or even trading D.J. Hayden, but such a move would save the team less than $2MM against the cap, and considering Oakland’s depth problems in the secondary, hanging on to Hayden for one last year may make sense.

Many pundits were praising the signing of Roy Helu as one of the steals of free agency last year, but Helu never became a meaningful part of the team’s offense, and Oakland could create $2MM of cap room by releasing him.

Marcel Reece has been a useful member of the team’s offense in recent seasons, particularly as a blocker, and he is one of longest-tenured members of the roster (and a team captain to boot). But he will miss the first three games of the 2016 season due to his PED-related suspension, and Jamize Olawale looks more than capable of stepping into Reece’s shoes. The team could save $2.65MM by letting Reece go.

Finally, the Raiders could release longtime kicker Sebastian Janikowski and save $3.24MM by doing so. Janikowski stumbled in 2015, finishing 28th in the league in field goal percentage, though he was efficient in kicks over 50 yards. It would be somewhat surprising to see the Raiders release Janikowski before training camp, but Oakland should be on the lookout for the heir apparent to their aging kicker, who will turn 38 in March.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Just as the Raiders do not have many decisions to make in terms of significant releases, they also do not have much to do by way of contract extensions. It is too soon to explore extensions for the “Big Three” of Carr, Cooper, and Mack, but Latavius Murray is entering the final year of his rookie contract and could be in line for a new multi-year deal.Latavius Murray

Murray was one of only seven backs league-wide to run for more than 1,000 yards, and he did so behind an offensive line that ranked just 19th in adjusted line yards. We recently learned that Lamar Miller is seeking a deal that would pay him around $5MM annually, and if he is able to land that type of payday, Murray would likely be able to command around the same. Contracts for running backs are generally becoming less and less expensive, so assuming Murray wants to stay in Oakland, it shouldn’t be too difficult for the Raiders to meet his market value.

Marcel Reece, meanwhile, is one of those rare players who could be an extension candidate or a release candidate. Reece was recently mentioned by Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com as a player that Oakland might consider extending, and his abilities as a blocker and receiver out of the backfield, along with his captaincy, explain why. Reece, like Murray, is entering the final year of his contract, and though he is more valuable to the Raiders than anyone else, it would not take much to get an extension done (a two-year, $6MM contract should be enough).

Longtime long snapper Jon Condo, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent next season, might also receive an extension at some point this year.

Overall Outlook:

The elephant in the room of course, is the question of where the Raiders will be playing their home games in the near future. They will remain at the O.Co Coliseum in Oakland for 2016, and the club’s new one-year lease with the Coliseum includes options for the 2017 and 2018 seasons, so owner Mark Davis will have some flexibility as he searches for a long-term stadium solution in the Bay Area and elsewhere.

While the Raiders’ efforts to get a new stadium will certainly continue to make headlines, the team’s roster is the focus here, and as far as their immediate on-field prospects are concerned, the Raiders are in pretty good shape — they may again emerge as playoff contenders after a 13-year hiatus from the postseason.

There are doubtlessly a number of issues to be resolved: the secondary is a mess, and the offensive line, even if Penn is re-signed, needs some depth and perhaps a re-tooling on the right side. And despite the strong play of Dan Williams and rookie Mario Edwards, and the star turn of Mack, McKenzie should at least add some quality depth pieces to the front seven.

However, with a promising young quarterback, a rising young wideout, and a second-year pass rusher who should at least be in the discussion for the best defensive player in the league, the Raiders have a lot to look forward to. Assuming continued growth from Carr and Cooper, and assuming McKenzie is able to effectively address the team’s defensive issues, this is certainly a team that can compete in the AFC West.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Rams

February 16th, 2016 at 10:00pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Chris Long, DE: $14,250,000
  2. Robert Quinn, DE: $11,157,373
  3. Nick Foles, QB: $8,750,000
  4. Jared Cook, TE: $8,300,441
  5. James Laurinaitis, ILB: $6,425,000
  6. Michael Brockers, DT: $6,146,000
  7. Greg Robinson, T: $5,804,754
  8. Rodger Saffold, G: $5,656,250
  9. Kenny Britt, WR: $4,850,000
  10. Lance Kendricks, TE: $4,500,000
  11. Tavon Austin, WR: $4,057,137
  12. Akeem Ayers, OLB: $3,300,000
  13. Todd Gurley, RB: $3,141,632
  14. Aaron Donald, DT: $2,764,500
  15. Johnny Hekker, P: $2,595,995

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • Offensive coordinator: Retained Rob Boras, who took over job during 2015 season.
  • Offensive staff: Hired Bears WRs coach Mike Groh as WRs coach/passing game coordinator.

Draft:

  • No. 15 overall pick
  • Acquired second-round pick from Eagles in deal for QB Sam Bradford.
  • Lost fifth-round pick after using it in 2015 supplemental draft on T Isaiah Battle.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Texans in deal for QB Case Keenum.

Other:

Overview:

Last season, for the first time since 2009, the NFC West was not won by the Seahawks or 49ers. Unfortunately for the Rams, however, it was the Cardinals that broke the trend. The Rams finished out the year 7-9 and even though they didn’t reach the postseason, there were some distinct bright spots.

The big story of the year, of course, was the emergence of running back Todd Gurley. Gurley, the No. 10 overall pick in the 2015 draft, had to be eased into live action due to the ACL tear he suffered in his final collegiate season. Slowly but surely, Gurley was given more and more of the workload and, by the end of the year, Gurley looked like one of the game’s brightest young talents. In total, Gurley rushed for 1,106 yards, becoming the third rookie in team history to rush for 1,000+ yards in a season, putting him in the same company as Jerome Bettis and Eric Dickerson. "<strong

Of course, it wasn’t all roses. The Rams didn’t have a strong passing game to keep teams honest against Gurley, and the Rams’ star running back was seeing stacked boxes for much of the year. The Rams’ passing game suffered, in part, because of Nick Foles‘ struggles under center. Case Keenum took over the starting job later in the season – and is expected to keep it in 2016 – but he was also limited by the team’s porous offensive line. With an offense that couldn’t control the clock, the Rams’ injury-battered defense didn’t fare much better.

We’re still weeks away from the start of free agency but the Rams have already undergone plenty of change this offseason. Now that they’ll be making their home in Los Angeles, can the Rams win right off the bat and energize their new fan base?

Key Free Agents:

The Rams’ list of free agents is headlined by cornerback Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins, regarded by some as the second-best UFA cornerback this offseason, figures to draw a ton of interest if he hits the open market. In July, the Rams tried to talk extension with the cornerback, but he chose instead to bet on himself and it appears that gamble is about to pay off. In 2015, Jenkins played (and started) in 15 games, racking up 64 tackles, a career-high 15 pass deflections, and three interceptions.

Despite his impressive counting stats, Jenkins ranked as just the 26th-best cornerback in the NFL last year based on Pro Football Focus‘ metrics, putting him behind fellow UFAs Josh Norman, Sean Smith, Adam Jones, Casey Hayward, and teammate Trumaine Johnson. Then again, PFF has never been a big fan of Jenkins. In 2014, the advanced metrics cast Jenkins as a slightly below average cornerback with an overall score of -1.5 that placed him 50th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks. PFF had Jenkins at No. 61 among qualified corners in 2013 and No. 101 in his rookie year. Regardless of how the advanced stats view Jenkins, he appears to be in line for a big pay day at an average annual value of $7-8MM.

With Johnson also set to hit the open market, one has to wonder if the Rams are willing to invest significant money into both of their free agent cornerbacks. Right now, most onlookers expect the team to let one of the two talented corners go. Johnson earned an 82.2 overall grade from Pro Football Focus, placing him 19th among all corners in the NFL last season. Even though the advanced numbers have Johnson ranked ahead of Jenkins, conventional thinking hold Jenkins in higher esteem.

In December, Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap predicted that Johnson will command a deal with a $6MM AAV, roughly $2MM less per season than Jenkins. The Rams have the cap space to bring back both players, but if they’d rather not devote big money to the position, they may be more likely to keep Johnson than Jenkins. With Lamarcus Joyner and E.J. Gaines in the fold, the Rams can afford to let one of the two go elsewhere.

On top of Jenkins and Johnson, the Rams have a third starter in the secondary due for free agency. Safety Rodney McLeod entered the league as a UDFA in 2012 and over the last couple of years, the Rams have watched him blossom into one of the NFL’s better safeties. Last year, the Rams assigned McLeod a second-rounder RFA tender, giving him a 2015 salary of $2.356MM. This time around, it’ll cost significantly more to retain him. The 25-year-old (26 in June) started all 16 games in 2015, totaling 81 tackles, 5 pass deflections, three forced fumbles, and one interception.

Nick Fairley was expected to secure a hefty contract last offseason after a solid contract year with the Lions, but ultimately inked a one-year pact to join the Rams. The 28-year-old played in 15 games last season before being shut down, seeing time as a rotational lineman and playing slightly less than 40% of the club’s defensive snaps. The Rams are expected to discuss a new deal with Fairley, who is still reasonably young and productive (he graded as the league’s No. 24 interior lineman, per Pro Football Focus).

Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein – a.k.a. Young GZ – is on an expiring deal. Will he be retained? After a year in which he made just 20 of 30 field goals, it’s far from a certainty.

It will also be interesting to see what the Rams do with veteran wide receiver Wes Welker. Welker didn’t make a huge impact during his time in St. Louis but he says that he intends to continue his career in 2016 “as long as I feel good and am having fun.” With a move to Los Angeles coming up, Welker’s name value could have some extra importance to team ownership.

Speaking of wide receivers, Brian Quick is set to reach free agency for the first time in his career. The former second-round pick has yet to live up to the hype, but the Rams could hold on to the 26-year-old (27 in June) in hopes that he’ll blossom in gold and blue.

Finally, Case Keenum is a restricted free agent and Rams GM Les Snead has already stated that he won’t be going anywhere. Still, the team has a big decision to make this spring. The Rams could use a second-round tender to hold Keenum, but with a number of teams looking for a QB, Los Angeles might want to give itself a bit of extra insurance. The Rams could hit Keenum with a first-round tender, which would almost certainly discourage any rival suitors from making a run at him, and wouldn’t cost much more. In 2015, the first-round tender was worth $3.35MM, versus the ~$2.36MM second-round tender.

Possible Cap Casualties:

With a team-high cap number of $14.25MM, defensive end Chris Long appears to be a very likely cap casualty for the Rams. Long, 31 in March, has appeared in only 18 games over the last two seasons, putting up a grand total of 4.0 sacks and 24 tackles. The Rams will save $11.75MM if they cut Long with only $2.5MM in dead money against the cap. Still, Long does seem open to the possibility of a pay cut to remain with the franchise as it moves to Los Angeles. "<strong

“Of course I’m open to doing something like that,” Long said in January. “It’s not about the money at this point for me.”

Nick Foles lost his starting job in 2015, and while he may ultimately have a chance to win it back, head coach Jeff Fisher has anointed Keenum as his projected starting quarterback for 2016. With an $8.75MM cap number for the upcoming year, Foles’ roster spot now doesn’t look entirely safe.

After acquiring the veteran quarterback from the Eagles last offseason, the Rams signed him to an extension in August, locking him up through 2017. That deal calls for a guaranteed $6MM roster bonus, to be paid on the third day of the 2016 league year, which falls on March 11. If the Rams are confident that Foles will not be in their plans going forward, it would behoove them to either cut bait or trade him before 3/11. His trade value is not terribly high right now, but depending on who you ask, the Eagles might be interested.

Tight end Jared Cook has yet to live up to his monster contract and with a cap number of $8.3MM looming, it might make sense for the Rams to bail out on his deal. Luckily for L.A., all of Cook’s guaranteed money has been paid, so he could be released with minimal salary cap ramifications. Over the last three seasons, Cook has hauled in 142 receptions for 1,786 yards and eight touchdowns, but he does not offer elite production to match his high-end pay.

Cook has the fourth-highest cap number on the Rams this year and just behind him at No. 5 is linebacker James Laurinaitis. Laurinaitis isn’t necessarily pricey with a cap number of $6.4MM, but he does seem overpaid. Oft-injured offensive lineman Rodger Saffold carries a cap number of ~$5.65MM and could be on the chopping block. Dropping wide receiver Kenny Britt could alleviate the Rams of a $4.85MM commitment, but that would leave the team with even more question marks at the position.

Positions Of Need:

The Rams are saying that Keenum will be the main guy under center, but that’s probably not their ideal plan for 2016. Even if they roll with the soon-to-be 28-year-old, the Rams will have to figure out a better long-term solution at QB. Thanks to their middle-of-the-pack finish in 2015, the Rams likely won’t be in the mix for the likes of Jared Goff or Carson Wentz without a trade that moves them up significant from the No. 15 pick."<strong

The free agent market at QB could be headlined by Sam Bradford, who is unlikely to receive the franchise tag from the Eagles. Bradford, who came to the Eagles in the trade that sent Foles to the Rams, struggled out of the gate in his first season in Philly, though he did play much better in the second half of the year as he grew more comfortable in Chip Kelly‘s offense. A reunion between the Rams and Bradford would make some sense, particularly because the veteran is already familiar with Fisher’s offense.

The open market could also feature the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kirk Cousins, and Brock Osweiler. All three quarterbacks are worth consideration for a team in need of a signal-caller, but they are not especially glamorous options for the L.A. market. Could the Rams instead make a play for one of the greatest QBs in the history of the game? Peyton Manning is, obviously, not what he once was, but he would represent a major splash for the Rams as they enter the nation’s No. 2 media market. Prior to the Super Bowl, it was reported that the Rams have discussed Manning internally. A few weeks after the big game, however, it sounds like Manning is more likely to retire than take the field again.

Aside from quarterback, the Rams will have to address the wide receiver position, especially since things will be fluid heading into the offseason. As mentioned earlier, Brian Quick is due to hit the open market and Kenny Britt could be cut loose without any real financial penalty. Even if one or both players return to the Rams, it’s clear that the team will have to add another receiver alongside the speedy Tavon Austin. Unfortunately for L.A., however, the wide receiver market isn’t very strong outside of Alshon Jeffery, and the Bears might lock him down in the next couple of weeks. Other free agent options include Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones of the Bengals and Jermaine Kearse of the Seahawks. If the Rams want to make a low-risk, high-reward type of addition, they could target Giants receiver Rueben Randle.

The Rams’ pass rush was weak in 2015 and they’ll have to address the front seven. That need only increases when considering that both Long and Laurinaitis are potential cap casualties. The Rams specifically need to address the linebacker position and it’s not clear if they’ll have the financial flexibility to land someone like Seahawks linebacker Bruce Irvin.

Gurley was deadly, at times, in 2015 , but he was bottled up in some games thanks to a mediocre offensive line. Starting interior linemen Rodger Saffold and Jamon Brown had to be placed on IR and left tackle Greg Robinson has been shaky. The Rams can be expected to target a guard this spring, but the club’s whole offensive line should be closely examined. If Rodney McLeod goes, the Rams will also have to figure out an alternative at safety.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

The Rams picked up Michael Brockers’ option for 2016, worth $6.146MM. The Rams could seek to hammer out an extension with him that will keep him in Los Angeles in 2017 and beyond. As the Rams learned prior to the 2015 season when teams were buzzing with trade interest, Brockers will draw several eager suitors if he hits the open market.

Brockers, 25, has been a staple of the Rams’ defensive line since being taken with the No. 14 pick in the 2012 draft. The defensive tackle totaled just 32 tackles and 2.0 sacks in 2014 but he saw an uptick in 2015 with 3.0 sacks and 45 total tackles. For what it’s worth, however, the advanced metrics at PFF (sub. req’d) rated him as the 28th-best DT in the league last season. That put him in a virtual tie with 49ers lineman Arik Armstead who, by most evaluations, was underwhelming in his rookie season.

Overall Outlook:

The Rams love L.A. like Randy Newman, but will the city of Los Angeles love them back? The Rams will get lots of love upon making their L.A. return, but the honeymoon won’t last long if they can’t win.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

February 15th, 2016 at 9:19pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Gerald McCoy, DT: $13,000,000
  2. Vincent Jackson, WR: $12,209,778
  3. Lavonte David, OLB: $10,000,000
  4. Logan Mankins, G: $7,000,000
  5. Alterraun Verner, CB: $6,750,000
  6. Jameis Winston, QB: $5,761,654
  7. Gosder Cherilus, T: $4,500,000
  8. Bruce Carter, OLB: $4,250,000
  9. Mike Evans, WR: $3,990,410
  10. Joe Hawley, C: $3,500,000
  11. Clinton McDonald, DT: $3,250,000
  12. Evan Smith, C: $2,500,000
  13. George Johnson, DE: $2,000,000
  14. Brandon Myers, TE: $1,916,668
  15. Demar Dotson, T: $1,750,000

Notable coaching/front office changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

Any season that ends with a team firing its head coach is usually regarded as a failure for that club, but the Buccaneers took steps toward relevance during the 2015 campaign. The Bucs improved from 2-14 to 6-10, bettered their point differential by 58, and may have found a legitimate franchise quarterback for the first time in their history.

Tampa’s progress wasn’t enough to save head coach Lovie Smith, whom general manager Jason Licht sent packing after the team closed the season with three straight losses. Even though Smith went an ugly 8-24 in his two seasons at the helm, his firing came as somewhat of a surprise. Conversely, the Bucs didn’t shock anyone by choosing Smith’s offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter, to take over his ex-boss’ job.

The 57-year-old Koetter worked as the Buccaneers’ OC for just one season, but the unit made clear strides on his Dirk Koetter (vertical)watch. After finishing 29th, 30th and 32nd in points, yardage and DVOA in 2014, the Bucs rose to 20th, fifth and 18th in those three categories last season.

Koetter, whose only previous head coaching experience came in the college ranks (he went a combined 66-44 at Boise State and Arizona State from 1998-2008), also helped guide rookie quarterback Jameis Winston to a terrific showing. Last year’s first overall pick started all 16 of the Bucs’ games, tossed 22 touchdowns against 15 interceptions, and became the youngest QB in NFL history (21) to eclipse the 4,000-yard mark.

Koetter will continue to call the offensive plays in Tampa, but he’ll have assistance on that side of the ball from new coordinator Todd Monken. Like Koetter, Monken has experience as a college head coach, having spent the last three seasons in that role with Southern Mississippi. Monken’s familiarity with Koetter undoubtedly helped lead to his hiring — the two were on the Jaguars’ staff from 2007-10 (Koetter was the offensive coordinator, Monken the receivers coach).

Koetter also has prior ties to newly hired defensive coordinator Mike Smith, who was the Falcons’ head coach from 2008-14. Koetter ran the Atlanta offense during the final three years of Smith’s tenure, and the two were also on Jacksonville’s staff together in 2007. Smith will take over a Bucs defense that finished last season under his predecessor Leslie Frazier as a top-10 unit in terms of yardage allowed, but just 18th in DVOA and 26th in points.

While Licht and the Koetter-led coaching staff obviously hope to break the Buccaneers’ eight-year playoff drought next season, the organization won’t do anything rash in an effort to better its chances. Licht said last week that the Bucs will be “selective and strategic” in free agency, adding that “the best way for us to go is to draft and develop players.”

If Licht is to be believed, that means the Bucs won’t splurge this offseason with the nearly $50MM they currently have in cap space. However, they should still be able to add some useful veterans and further bolster their roster through the draft, in which they have the ninth overall selection and two more picks in the top 75.

Key Free Agents:

"<strongRunning back Doug Martin is far and away the most significant pending free agent Tampa has. In theory, the Bucs could’ve avoided this predicament by picking up Martin’s fifth-year option for 2016 last offseason, but it appeared at the time they did the right thing in declining it. The franchise made its decision when Martin was coming off back-to-back subpar seasons, so it looked as if his explosive rookie year (1,900-plus total yards, 12 touchdowns) was a fluke.

To virtually everyone’s surprise, Martin returned to his first-year form last season, eclipsing the 1,400-yard rushing mark for the second time while establishing a new yards-per-carry high (4.9) and adding seven TDs. Martin also made his second Pro Bowl and earned first-team All-Pro honors, and he’ll now look to cash in as a 27-year-old. If Martin has it his way, his next deal will come from the Bucs.

“I love Tampa and Tampa loves me,” he told Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. “I’ve got a house out there so I do wish I’ll go back to Tampa.”

The club has had “great discussions” with Martin’s camp, Licht told the Tampa Bay Times’ Rick Stroud, who reports that the league’s reigning second-leading rusher is “hoping to hit the jackpot.” Martin could indeed hit the jackpot, as Roy Cummings of the Tampa Tribune wrote in January that his bounce-back effort might lead to a contract similar to the five-year, $42MM deal Philadelphia signed DeMarco Murray to last offseason.

With the franchise tag price of just under $12MM perhaps too steep a total, it’s fair to say the Bucs’ best chance to keep Martin from exploring the free agent market on March 9 is by way of a long-term accord. The question is: Are they confident enough to give that kind of a contract to a player who has had such a a boom-or-bust career? If anyone can afford to take a gamble of that caliber, it’s a cap space-rich team like the Bucs.

Aside from Martin, Tampa isn’t exactly overflowing with notable free agents-to-be. The best of the rest are on defense, where cornerback Sterling Moore leads an unspectacular unrestricted class that also features tackle Henry Melton and safety Chris Conte. All three signed one-year deals to join the Buccaneers last winter.

Moore started in nine of 16 appearances and led Bucs corners in defensive snap percentage (64.9) and pass breakups (six), and added three forced fumbles and a pick. Whether the 26-year-old will stay in Tampa could depend on how he feels about the new coaching staff.

“I came here because I felt comfortable in the system, so that’s obviously something that goes into things, but it’s all about the coaching staff and where I feel comfortable,” he told Rick Brown of ESPN.com before the team fired Lovie Smith.

Melton played under Smith in Chicago from 2009-12 and made the Pro Bowl in their last season together with the Bears, but he hasn’t been the same player since. As a reserve lineman last season, the 29-year-old finished as Pro Football Focus’ 101st-ranked interior defender (123 qualifiers). The site (subscription required) graded him below average among interior pass rushers and toward the bottom as a run defender. If the Bucs let him go, he shouldn’t be hard to replace. Should they keep him, look for another one-year pact, but a lower cap hit than last season’s $3.75MM would be expected.

Like Melton, Conte was an ex-Bear who reunited with Smith last season. Unlike Melton, Conte fared well for the Bucs, starting 13 of 14 appearances and totaling 79 tackles, three interceptions and two forced fumbles. Although Conte’s output netted him a solid 32nd-place ranking out of 88 qualifying safeties at PFF, Licht doesn’t sound fully committed to re-signing him as he goes into his age-27 season.

“Chris Conte did some good things for us and he has a familiarity with (fellow secondary coach) Jon Hoke, who was his coach in Chicago,’’ Licht said, according to Stroud. “We will be discussing the possibility of bringing him back, but we still like Bradley McDougald, who we think has upside and we still have Major Wright under contract and we liked what Keith Tandy did in his role for us last year. But it can’t hurt to bring in competition.’’

It’s worth mentioning that two of the players Licht named, McDougald and Tandy, aren’t currently under contract. McDougald, who started 15 games last season but didn’t grade out nearly as well as Conte (65th), is a restricted free agent, so the Bucs shouldn’t have much trouble bringing him back. Tandy is unrestricted, though re-upping him won’t cost much after he played just 25.9 percent of the Bucs’ defensive snaps last season.

Possible Cap Casualties:

When combining the Bucs’ abundance of spending room with Licht’s acknowledgment that they’re not necessarily looking to use much of it, there isn’t a crying need for the team to ax anyone for cap reasons. Still, it’s worth noting that 12 Bucs whose cap hits range from $1.33MM to $7MM can all be cut without the team incurring any dead money in 2016.
The least expensive of the group is kicker Connor Barth, whose job doesn’t appear safe. The Bucs worked out four kickers Friday, Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times tweeted, so it looks as though they’re searching for an upgrade. Barth, who was a Buc from 2009-12, rejoined the team when it released Kyle Brindza in October. In 12 games, Barth hit 23 of 28 field goals (82.1 percent, which ranked 23rd out of 32 qualifying kickers) and 25 of 26 extra points.
If the Bucs were anywhere near the cap, using over $33MM of space on receiver Vincent Jackson, cornerback Alterraun Verner, linebacker Bruce Carter, offensive tackle Gosder Cherilus, and centers Joe Hawley and Evan Dietrich-Smith would be problematic. Given their cap situation, though, they probably aren’t in a hurry to let any of them go.
Jackson will definitely return, per Stroud, and Licht told Pewter Report in January that Verner will get a chance for a fresh start in Mike Smith’s defense.

Positions Of Need:

"<strongDefensively, Tampa could look to augment both its pass rush and secondary. The Bucs were middle of the pack in sacks last season with 38, but none of their edge rushers had more than seven.

If the team addresses the area through free agency, one name that comes to mind is a controversial one: Greg Hardy. While the soon-to-be 28-year-old’s off-field behavior has been abhorrent, the fact is that he’s a quality pass rusher many teams would covet if not for his character issues.

As a Cowboy, Hardy recorded a decent six sacks in 12 games last season – which wasn’t as prolific as his 11- and 15-sack totals with Carolina in 2012 and ’13 – and ranked No. 28 among 110 edge defenders at PFF.

Considering the baggage that come with Hardy, he shouldn’t get either a long-term deal or an overly expensive one, which would work in the Buccaneers’ favor if they were to pursue him. The Bucs were in the Hardy sweepstakes a year ago, with ESPN’s Adam Schefter reporting that they went so far as to draw up a contract structure for him (Twitter link via Stroud), so there’s already a built-in connection between the two sides. Granted, Hardy went on to become a headache for a Cowboys team that won’t re-sign him, meaning there’s no guarantee Licht will have interest in him this time around.

Licht could, however, have interest in Mario Williams, who will be on the market soon if the Bills release him. That’s expected to happen, as the 31-year-old didn’t fit into Rex Ryan‘s defense last season and is set to count an exorbitant amount against the Bills’ cap in 2016 if they don’t cut ties. Williams, who is one season removed from a career-best 14.5-sack performance, is a good bet to land with a team that uses a 4-3 scheme. If he comes at a reasonable rate, it’s conceivable that team could be the Buccaneers.

If the free agent pass-rushing market doesn’t intrigue Licht, he’ll turn to the draft for help. In his latest mock draft, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report has the Bucs taking Eastern Kentucky’s Noah Spence in the first round. Spence comes with off-the-field red flags, but Miller calls him “the most talented edge rusher in this year’s class.”

The Bucs allowed the fourth-most TD passes (31) and the second-highest passer rating (101.2) in the league last season, which points to weaknesses in their defensive backfield. With the possibility of losing Moore, Conte, Tandy and fellow UFA Mike Jenkins, the need for the team to strengthen its secondary is further magnified. The door hasn’t closed on a Conte comeback, and Licht is a fan of McDougald, Wright and Tandy, so it’s not a sure thing that he’ll bring in outside safety help. Corner should be a different story, however, regardless of whether the team re-signs Moore, Jenkins or both.

In the event the Bucs are willing to open their wallets for the short term, the likes of Adam Jones (Bengals), Leon Hall (Bengals) and William Gay (Steelers) could be names to watch. Unlike those three 30-somethings, Prince Amukamara (Giants) and Patrick Robinson are still in their 20s, and either would improve the Bucs’ secondary without the club having to fork over huge money.

As far as the draft goes, if Licht is open to grabbing a corner at No. 9, Clemson’s Mackensie Alexander and Florida’s Vernon Hargreaves III are surely on his radar. Miller currently projects the two to go eighth and 12th, respectively, right in the vicinity of Tampa’s selection.

On the offensive side, the Bucs should find themselves in the market for running back help if Martin departs. They do have Charles Sims waiting in the wings, though. Sims, who will turn 26 in September, averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 107 attempts and put up impressive receiving numbers (51 catches, 11.0 yards per reception, four touchdowns) last season.

It’s possible the Bucs are more comfortable with Sims as a third-down specialist than as a workhorse. If so, a pending free agent he might serve as a good complement to is the Jets’ Chris Ivory, a bruiser with a career 4.6 YPC. Ivory is coming off his first thousand-yard season, one in which multi-threat Bilal Powell spelled him on third downs (as Sims would do in Tampa), and is expected to carry a much lower price tag than Martin.

Elsewhere, nothing really stands out as a gaping short-term hole in the Bucs’ offense. The line allowed the fourth-fewest sacks in the league last season (27) and helped lead Martin, Sims and the rest of the team’s runners to a league-best 4.8 per-rush average.

The unit has two over-30 tackles in Cherilus and Demar Dotson, but it also has a 22-year-old, Donovan Smith, who was a second-rounder in 2015 and started all 16 games as a rookie. Guard Ali Marpet was also a second-rounder last year, and he started in each of his 13 appearances. Marpet is entrenched as a starter going forward, but the other guard spot could become an issue if the highly effective Logan Mankins retires, which he’s considering. However, there won’t be any shortage of above-average stopgaps available in free agency if Mankins does walk away. Richie Incognito (Bills), Evan Mathis (Broncos) and Chris Chester (Falcons) are among the possibilities.

The Bucs like their receiving corps, according to Scott Reynolds of Pewter Report, but will add at least one more for depth purposes. That suggests they’ll look for a low-cost wideout in free agency or use a mid-round pick on one.

As mentioned earlier, the Bucs don’t seem content with their kicking situation. The market is unlikely to offer many definite upgrades over Barth, however. Josh Brown (Giants), Mason Crosby (Packers), Justin Tucker (Ravens) and Adam Vinatieri (Colts) are the best of the pending free agent lot. While all are superior to Barth, none are great bets to become free agents. Tucker, for one, won’t hit the market, with the Ravens planning to either sign him or tag him (Twitter link via Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun). The Colts, meanwhile, intend to keep Vinatieri.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

The Buccaneers could make adjustments to the contracts of Vincent Jackson and Logan Mankins, if he doesn’t retire, per Stroud. Jackson will count ~$12.21MM against the club’s cap next season, while Mankins will bring a $7MM hit.

Vincent Jackson (vertical)Although he missed six games last season and only caught 33 passes and three TDs, Jackson still averaged 16.5 yards per reception – his highest mark since 2012 – and might merit a short-term extension.

A comparable the Bucs could look to if they do try to get something done with Jackson is Andre Johnson, who signed a three-year, $21MM contract with the Colts last offseason. Johnson’s contract includes $10MM in guarantees and cap hits of $7.5MM last season and next season and $6MM in the final year. Johnson, then entering his age-34 season (Jackson is 33), experienced a decline in production before inking the deal as a free agent – he averaged 11.0 yards per catch, his second-worst career total, and pulled in 85 catches (24 fewer than the prior season).

Jackson, while still a big-play threat, was on a 53-catch pace pre-injury last season. That would’ve been his lowest full-season total since 2011. He amassed at least 70 receptions in each season from 2012-14.

Even though he’s a backup quarterback, Mike Glennon is an extension candidate for Tampa as he goes into the last year of his deal.

“Mike Glennon is just so valuable to us right now while we have him, while he’s under contract, I feel like we have two starting quarterbacks with him and Jameis,” Licht told Reynolds.

To extend Glennon could cost the Bucs upward of $7MM in guaranteed money, according to Stroud. The 26-year-old was a third-rounder in 2013 and has since made 19 appearances (18 starts), completing ~59 percent of passes for 4,000-plus yards, 29 TDs and 15 INTs.

Overall Outlook:

With the conference champion Panthers occupying a place in the NFC South, the Buccaneers probably aren’t going to threaten for a division title next season. However, if they’re able to make some meaningful defensive improvements this offseason and Winston takes another step forward in 2016, the franchise’s first .500-plus campaign since 2010 wouldn’t be an unreasonable expectation.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2016 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates

February 15th, 2016 at 10:27am CST by Luke Adams

On Tuesday, February 16th, NFL teams will be able to place franchise and transition tags on potential free agents for the first time. While the window for franchise tags opens at that point, most clubs won’t actually tag any players right away.

As our list of important dates for the 2016 offseason shows, the deadline for teams to assign those franchise and transition tags comes two weeks later, on Tuesday, March 1st. Generally when it comes to NFL contract discussions, deadlines spur action, so teams will likely wait until closer to that March deadline to officially use franchise tags, once it becomes clear that they won’t be able to strike a longer-term deal yet with their respective free-agents-to-be.

Even though the action might not heat up for a couple more weeks, it’s worth taking a closer look at what to expect during 2016’s franchise tag period. We don’t know yet what the exact salary amounts for franchise tags will be, since the NFL has yet to announce the salary cap figure for the coming year. But back in November, former agent Joel Corry of CBSSports.com projected the 2016 franchise tag salaries, based on a presumed cap of $154MM. Here are the non-exclusive franchise tag amounts projected by Corry:

  • Quarterback: $19.748MM
  • Running back: $11.871MM
  • Wide receiver: $14.527MM
  • Tight end: $9.053MM
  • Offensive line: $13.678MM
  • Defensive end: $15.494MM
  • Defensive tackle: $13.368MM
  • Linebacker: $14.131MM
  • Cornerback: $13.838MM
  • Safety: $10.717MM
  • Punter/kicker: $4.534MM

Those numbers are unlikely to be 100% accurate, but the actual figures won’t be drastically different, so we can use them as points of reference when considering which players are candidates to be franchised in 2016.

For a refresher on the characteristics of the exclusive and non-exclusive franchise tags, as well as the transition tag, be sure to check out PFR’s glossary entry on the subject. Once you’re up to speed, let’s dive in and take a look at the most likely candidates to be tagged, along with several more outside possibilities….

Virtual locks:Von Miller

Broncos pass rusher Von Miller was viewed as the top player in this year’s group of potential free agents even before he terrorized Cam Newton in Santa Clara and earned Super Bowl MVP honors. Now, there’s no doubt that Denver will do all it can to retain the former second overall pick. The only questions for Miller are whether he’ll reach a long-term deal with the Broncos before the club needs to franchise him, and whether he’d get the exclusive or non-exclusive tag.

Panthers cornerback Josh Norman didn’t make the same impact in Super Bowl 50 that Miller did, but Carolina still seems likely to franchise him to avoid letting him hit the open market. The franchise tag for cornerbacks is projected to be worth nearly $14MM, but the Panthers are in better cap shape than they have been in recent years, and can afford to take the hit.

Meanwhile, it has been a few years since a quarterback was franchised, but Washington signal-caller Kirk Cousins is a strong candidate. Reports have indicated the team won’t let him get away, but the two sides apparently aren’t close to a multiyear agreement, which makes the franchise tag the most logical option at this point.

Strong candidates:

A year or two ago, Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery would have been a no-brainer candidate for the franchise tag. However, 2015 was an up-and-down season for Jeffery, who only played in nine games due to injury issues. When he did play, Jeffery was excellent, averaging a career-high 89.7 yards per game, and few teams have more projected cap room this offseason than Chicago, so it seems unlikely that the team would let the wideout get away — especially given how weak the market for receivers is this year, outside of Jeffery.

The Jets are facing an interesting predicament on their defensive line with Damon Harrison and Muhammad Wilkerson eligible for free agency this winter. Harrison isn’t a franchise tag candidate, and the Jets could conceivably re-sign him at a reasonable price, then move forward with a defensive line of Harrison, Sheldon Richardson, and Leonard Williams. However, letting an asset like Wilkerson get away for nothing isn’t great business, which is why he has been viewed as an intriguing tag-and-trade candidate for New York.

Elsewhere in the AFC East, the Bills and Dolphins don’t have a ton of cap flexibility, which could affect their decisions on offensive tackle Cordy Glenn and defensive end Olivier Vernon, respectively. There are ways for Buffalo and Miami to create the space necessary to tag their free-agents-to-be, but Eric Berryboth teams already have plenty of highly-paid veterans on their books, so the decisions aren’t no-brainers. I think Glenn, at least, is slightly more likely than not to be tagged, but both players could conceivably reach the open market.

Safety Eric Berry had a tremendous comeback season in 2015, and it would put something of a damper on that story for the Chiefs to allow him to sign elsewhere next month. A $10MM+ price tag for a safety isn’t cheap, but it’s a more affordable tag than most positions, so I think Kansas City will have to strongly consider using it if the team can’t agree on a longer-term contract with Berry. As last year’s negotiations with Justin Houston showed, the Chiefs aren’t afraid to franchise a player, then work out a multiyear pact with him later in the offseason.

One position that’s significantly cheaper than safety is kicker, where Corry projects a salary in the $4.5MM range. The Ravens and Justin Tucker have reportedly been negotiating a potential extension for over a year, but with the franchise deadline approaching, the team isn’t afraid to use a tag on Tucker, if it comes to that.

Long shots:

The Jets want to extend Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Eagles have spoken highly of Sam Bradford, but it appears unlikely that either quarterback will get franchised. At least one report has indicated that the Eagles aren’t expected to use their franchise tag to retain Bradford, and a price tag of nearly $20MM seems too high for Fitzpatrick.

Like Fitzpatrick, Buccaneers running back Doug Martin is a player whose team badly wants to re-sign him, but may view the franchise tag salary as too high. For running backs, the tag could be worth nearly $12MM, which would make Martin the second-highest-paid RB in the NFL – behind Adrian Peterson – by a comfortable margin. For a player who has been as inconsistent as Martin, that seems excessive.

A handful of offensive linemen are possible candidates to be tagged by their respective teams, including Kelechi Osemele (Ravens), Russell Okung (Seahawks), Mitchell Schwartz (Browns), Kelvin Beachum (Steelers), and Andre Smith (Bengals). However, I’d be a little surprised if even one of those five got the franchise tag. Since there’s only one price tag for all offensive linemen, the projected salary ($13.678MM) is left-tackle money, and Osemele, Schwartz, and Smith haven’t seen much – if any – playing time at left tackle. As for Okung and Beachum, I’m skeptical that their teams will want to invest too heavily in them, since they haven’t been consistently healthy and elite in recent years.

If the Broncos strike a long-term deal with Miller soon, it would free up the franchise tag for quarterback Brock Osweiler or defensive end Malik Jackson. Even in the unlikely event that Miller and the Broncos agree to terms quickly though, the franchise salaries for Osweiler and Jackson may be a little too high.

Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul got the franchise tag last year, but it’ll be pricier this season, and obviously there are more question marks this time around, given the state of his right hand. As such, I don’t think he’s a real candidate to be tagged, despite New York’s significant cap space. Bengals safety Reggie Nelson seems like a similar long-shot — he had another good season in 2015, earning his first Pro Bowl nod, but it would be surprising to see a team commit $10MM+ to a 33-year-old safety.

Finally, Tucker isn’t the only kicker or punter who has a shot to be tagged. Jaguars punter Bryan Anger, Raiders punter Marquette King, and Packers kicker Mason Crosby are among the other special teams candidates. They’re all less likely than Tucker to be franchised, but the Jags and Raiders have the most cap room in the NFL, so they could certainly afford it.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Eagles

February 14th, 2016 at 9:55pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Jason Peters, T: $9,737,500
  2. Byron Maxwell, CB: $9,700,000
  3. Lane Johnson, T: $8,128,388
  4. DeMarco Murray, RB: $8,000,000
  5. Fletcher Cox, DT: $7,799,000
  6. Connor Barwin, DE/OLB: $7,350,000
  7. Malcolm Jenkins, S: $7,166,668
  8. Mark Sanchez, QB: $5,500,000
  9. Jason Kelce, C: $5,200,000
  10. Brandon Graham, DE: $5,000,000
  11. Mychal Kendricks, ILB: $4,600,000
  12. DeMeco Ryans, ILB: $4,500,000
  13. Darren Sproles, RB: $4,500,000
  14. Ryan Mathews, RB: $4,000,000
  15. Zach Ertz, TE: $3,311,563

Notable coaching/front office changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

In his first two seasons with the Eagles, Chip Kelly contradicted the notion that an innovative college coach can’t take his act to the NFL and succeed. While the Eagles only appeared in one playoff game during those years – a 26-24 loss to New Orleans in January 2014 – they went 20-13 overall and were one of just seven teams that amassed double-digit victories in both seasons. Kelly then made the mistake of taking control of the Eagles’ roster last offseason and his tenure in Philadelphia began its swift descent off the proverbial cliff.

Critics spent months deriding the out-of-the-box moves made by Kelly, who was either going to prove his detractors right or cement himself as a genius during the 2015-16 campaign. Unfortunately for Kelly, his methods backfired and, after he guided the Eagles to a 6-9 record as part of the subpar NFC East, the team canned the mad scientist with one game left in the season.

Thanks to Kelly’s departure, the Eagles’ front office is back in the hands of executive vice president of football operations Doug Pederson (vertical)Howie Roseman, with whom Kelly had an adversarial relationship. Roseman and the rest of Eagles brass embarked on a multi-week search for Kelly’s replacement and chose Doug Pederson after failing to reel in either Ben McAdoo or Tom Coughlin.

Pederson, previously the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator, played and coached in Philly in the past, and his third stint with the Eagles got off to a positive start with the hiring of two accomplished coordinators in Jim Schwartz and Frank Reich.

Schwartz last coached in 2014, when he coordinated the Bills’ defense to a fourth-place finish and a league-high 54 sacks. It’s worth noting that, despite having mostly the same personnel, Buffalo’s defense disintegrated sans Schwartz last season, finishing 19th overall and plummeting to 31st in sacks. The Eagles have some enviable pieces on defense and Schwartz figures to get the most out of them as he transitions the unit from the 3-4 base used under predecessor Billy Davis to a 4-3.

One of the Eagles’ defensive stalwarts, edge rusher Vinny Curry, signed a five-year, $47.25MM on Feb. 2 and implied afterward he’d have tested the free agent market in March if not for the change from Davis’ scheme to Schwartz’s (Twitter link via Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Curry also expressed confidence that a long-term deal is coming for fellow lineman Fletcher Cox, who has one year left on his contract. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked Cox as a top-10 interior defender last season, and he’s primed to become even more monstrous in Schwartz’s defense.

In addition to trading up from Davis to Schwartz, it should benefit Curry, Cox and their defensive cohorts that they presumably won’t be on the field nearly as much as they were during the era of Kelly’s fast-paced offense. Exhibit A: Thanks in part to an offense that was worst in the NFL in time of possession, the Eagles accumulated the most defensive plays in the league last season (1,148). That contributed to their horrid rankings in yardage (30th) and points (28th) allowed.

Speaking of offense, while Reich hasn’t had Schwartz-like success as a coordinator, he’s still a solid pickup for Pederson’s staff. The Chargers’ offense was above average – 10th and 15th, respectively – in Football Outsiders’ DVOA during Reich’s two seasons running it. Reich won’t call the plays with the Eagles, however. That responsibility will instead lie with Pederson, who will take on a role that belonged almost exclusively to Andy Reid when Pederson was in Kansas City. Still, Pederson had a hand in the success of a Chiefs offense that ended last season sixth in both DVOA and rushing, despite losing elite running back Jamaal Charles to injury in the early going.

Since late December, Philadelphia has turned over its coaching staff and awarded contract extensions that could be worth upward of $160MM to Curry, tight ends Zach Ertz and Brent Celek, and offensive tackle Lane Johnson. If things go according to plan for the Eagles during the next several months, they’ll lock up Cox, strengthen the remainder of their roster, and find a personnel chief to join their Roseman-led front office.

Key Free Agents:

Five players who started at least 11 games for the Eagles last season are currently without contracts. The most prominent of the bunch is easily quarterback Sam Bradford, whom Kelly acquired from the Rams last winter in a deal that sent QB Nick Foles and a second-round pick to St. Louis.

In his first (and only?) season with the Eagles, Bradford started 14 games – his most since 2012 – and established new career highs in completion percentage (65.0), yards (3,725) and yards per attempt (7.00). He also tossed 19 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. Bradford was particularly effective from November onward, connecting on better than 68 percent of attempts while totaling 10 TDs and four picks.

"<strongThe question now is whether the Eagles want to continue with Bradford, who is a good bet to get a raise over the ~$13MM he made last season. For his part, Roseman said earlier this month that “everything is positive about Sam” (link via Berman). Before that, Pederson stated at his introductory press conference that Bradford is “a top-notch quarterback” who “would fit perfectly” in his offense (link via Dave Zangaro of CSNPhilly.com). All of that could be lip service, of course, and it’s no sure thing that Bradford even wants to go forth as an Eagle.

Peter King of TheMMQB.com reported in January that Bradford “isn’t crazy about Philadelphia” as a city, which could lead him to test the market. That won’t be an option if the Eagles apply the estimated $20MM franchise tag to Bradford, a possibility that ESPN’s Adam Schefter has shot down (Twitter link). Both Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer and Les Bowen of the Philadelphia Daily News have since contradicted Schefter, tweeting (links: 1, 2) that the Eagles haven’t ruled out tagging Bradford.

If the two sides wish to stay together, a short-term contract would clearly be the best route for the Eagles to take. Bradford hasn’t shown he’s worth big money over the long haul, as inconsistency and various injuries have beset his career since he went No. 1 in the 2010 draft. CBS Sports’ Joel Corry told PhillyMag.com last month that Bradford could be amenable to a one-year deal, while Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap wrote in November that a two-year accord worth nearly $30MM might be enough. More realistic, perhaps, is Spotrac’s projection of three years in the $56MM range. In terms of annual value, that would put Bradford in company with Ryan Tannehill, Colin Kaepernick and Jay Cutler. Like Bradford, those three have been much closer to average than great during their careers.

The remainder of the Eagles’ priority free agents are on defense: Lineman Cedric Thornton, cornerback Nolan Carroll and safety Walter Thurmond all scheduled to hit the market next month.

Thornton, who has started in all 45 of his appearances with the Eagles the past three years, will probably have to shift from 3-4 end to 4-3 tackle if he wants to remain with the team. That isn’t necessarily a deal-breaker, though, as the 27-year-old began his career with the Eagles in ex-coordinator Jim Washburn‘s 4-3 in 2012. Moreover, the Washburn-led Eagles lined up in a “wide nine,” which Schwartz has also utilized.

When the Eagles hired Schwartz, he praised their front seven personnel and mentioned Thornton (link via Bowen), so the change in scheme shouldn’t rule out his return. However, the Eagles could have a difficult time keeping Thornton because of the expected position switch. There’s a chance Thornton will get more money elsewhere to serve as a starting end in a 3-4 than as a presumed reserve tackle in the Eagles’ 4-3.

Carroll’s future in Philadelphia is in jeopardy because of the presence of Eric Rowe, whom the club could promote to full-time starter opposite Byron Maxwell. Rowe, a second-round pick last spring, took the reins from Carroll in November after the latter broke his leg. If the Eagles liked what they saw and think Rowe deserves to continue as a starter, that might seal Carroll’s fate. Carroll, who made $2.9MM in 2015-16, started in all 11 of his appearances, picked off two passes and ranked as PFF’s 53rd-best corner (111 qualifiers).

Arguably of greater importance than both Thornton and Carroll is Thurmond, who proved to be an excellent buy-low investment by the Eagles. After signing a one-year deal, Thurmond moved from corner – where he spent the first five seasons of his career – to safety and proceeded to start all 16 of the Eagles’ games while playing just under 99 percent of their defensive snaps. The 28-year-old also intercepted a career-high three passes and finished as PFF’s 26th-best safety (88 qualifiers). As a result, odds are Thurmond won’t have to settle for a third straight single-year contract (he previously signed one in 2014 with the Giants). With a raise on the way, Thurmond expects to be one and done in Philly.

“They only have $17MM in cap space. Economically it doesn’t make sense for them. I would love to be here. I love playing here. But that’s the way it is,” he told Bob Grotz of the Delaware County Daily Times in January.

While Thurmond isn’t hopeful about continuing with the Eagles, the team will try to re-sign him, according to Geoff Mosher of 97.5 The Fanatic (Twitter link).

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Eagles racked up their first cap casualty of 2016 with the recent pink slip given to receiver Riley Cooper, whose exit saves them $2.9MM this year.

The team could also conceivably cut running back DeMarco Murray, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported earlier this month. "<strongThat wouldn’t benefit the Eagles financially, however, as releasing Murray prior to June 1 would leave them with $13MM of dead cap this year. If they designate him a post-June 1 cut, he’d still eat up $8MM of their cap.

In response to Rapoport’s notion that Murray and the Eagles “are headed toward a stare-down,” Murray expressed his commitment to the club. After signing a five-year, $42MM deal last winter to leave the Cowboys for the Eagles, Murray failed to fit into Kelly’s offense. Compared to Murray’s final year in Dallas, his carries dropped by 199, his yardage fell by 1,100-plus, and he averaged 1.1 fewer yards per rush and scored six fewer touchdowns.

Given that Kelly is gone and Murray’s contract is an anvil, it would seemingly make sense for the Eagles to let him have another shot next season and hope he can regain something resembling his prior form. Murray, 28, is only one season removed from earning AP Offensive Player of the Year honors.

With Murray in the fold, the Eagles are on their way to dedicating an excessive amount of cap next season – $16.5MM, to be exact – to their top three running backs. They’d be able to recoup $3.5MM of that total by sending Darren Sproles packing. That could be a long shot, though, given that Sproles is a dual threat on offense and has made back-to-back Pro Bowls as a returner. Still, Sproles will soon turn 33 and saw most of his numbers decline from the previous year.

An even bigger long shot is releasing longtime left tackle Jason Peters, who currently has the largest cap hit on the team. While the Eagles stand to save a significant amount by moving on from the eight-time Pro Bowler (over $6.7MM pre-June 1 or $8.7MM+ after), it’s doubtful they will. The 33-year-old is out of his prime, but he’s still a terrific player. Pederson agrees, having spoken highly of Peters last month.

“I think J.P.’s got several good years left in him,” he told Reuben Frank of CSNPhilly.com. “I think that he does the right things in the offseason to get himself ready to go for another year.”

It’s safe to say linebacker DeMeco Ryans is at greater risk of losing his roster spot than anyone listed above. The soon-to-be 32-year-old is valued in Philly for his veteran leadership, but his play has tailed off and cutting him would save the Eagles $3.5MM.

Giving the ax to Mark Sanchez, who’s the best QB the Eagles have under contract, would also open up $3.5MM of room. The only way that will happen is if the club find two other viable signal-callers this offseason.

Positions Of Need:

Quarterback is obviously the Eagles’ primary concern. If Bradford isn’t in their plans, one player who has come up lately as a potential replacement is the aforementioned Foles, who was among the league’s worst QBs in 2015. Prior to last season, Foles had an up-and-down three years in Philly – including a stellar 2013 highlighted by 27 TDs against two INTs – and Schefter recently tweeted that the Eagles are interested in bringing him back. McLane and Bowen once again rebutted Schefter’s report, however.

Other than Foles, whom the Rams must trade prior to March 11 if they want to avoid taking on his $6MM bonus for 2016, veteran options include Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chase Daniel – all of whom are unsigned. The chances of Cousins actually reaching the market are close to nonexistent, while Osweiler and Fitzpatrick are expected to re-sign with the Broncos and Jets, respectively. Daniel spent the last three years as Alex Smith‘s backup in Kansas City and worked under Pederson, but the 6-footer lacks height and has thrown a meager 77 passes in the pros since going undrafted in 2009.

Robert Griffin III and Kaepernick are still signed in Washington and San Francisco, respectively, but it surely won’t be for much longer in RGIII’s case. Based on the trajectory of Griffin’s career in recent years, it would be foolhardy for any team to count on him as a starter. However, Kaepernick isn’t a lock to stay with the Niners, and he might be worth a look for the Eagles if he’s cut. The 28-year-old was an above-average starter from 2012-14 and continues to possess world-class mobility. That could appeal to Pederson, who comes from coaching an offense that took advantage of Smith’s fleetness.

Without signing Bradford or acquiring any of the other vets, the Eagles would almost have to gamble on a QB in the first round of the draft. In his most recent mock draft, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report has 6-foot-7 Paxton Lynch (Memphis) going to the Eagles with the 13th pick.

Should the Eagles eschew the QB position in the opening round, they could address their offensive line instead. Aside from their starting tackles (Johnson and the aging Peters) and center Jason Kelce, the Eagles’ line is bereft of dependable blockers. Part of that stems from not having drafted an O-lineman since 2013, when Johnson went fourth overall.

That will change this year, potentially in the first round. The Eagles don’t have a second-rounder, so they might have to use their top pick to add big-time young talent to their line. It’s a safe assumption that the first- and second-ranked tackles, Laremy Tunsil (Ole Miss) and Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame), will be gone by No. 13. Taylor Decker (Ohio State) and Jack Conklin (Michigan State) should be on the board, however. As for guard, the Eagles have been connected to Kansas State’s Cody Whitehair.

Of course, there will also be free agents available with the ability to improve the Eagles’ line. Pederson happens to be familiar with Jeff Allen, one of the foremost guards scheduled to reach the market. Allen joined the Chiefs as a second-rounder in 2012, the year before the club hired Pederson. Given their less-than-ideal guard situation and Pederson’s connection to Allen, it’ll be a surprise if the Eagles don’t pursue the 26-year-old.

The Eagles also need to bolster their receiving corps, having gotten minimal production from 2015 first-rounder Nelson Agholor and 2014 third-rounder Josh Huff. It’s too early to write off either player, especially Agholor, but the fact is that that the club’s only proven wideout is Jordan Matthews. Assuming the Eagles don’t join the Alshon Jeffery sweepstakes or splurge on the position in the form of another first-rounder, free agents-to-be like Rishard Matthews (Dolphins), Rueben Randle (Giants) and Mohamed Sanu (Bengals), to name a few, could be on their radar.

Even after signing Maxwell to a mammoth deal and using a high pick on Rowe a year ago, the Eagles’ secondary continues to stand out as a problem. Maxwell and Rowe didn’t exactly dominate last season, and even if they had, the Eagles would still need more help behind them. That’s especially true in light of Carroll’s status as a pending free agent. With Thurmond a candidate to bolt this year and Malcolm Jenkins possibly on his way to doing the same in 2017, safety is even more of a worry for both next season and the long term.

Elsewhere on defense, the Eagles’ front four is in outstanding shape on paper. Connor Barwin, who is moving from linebacker to defensive end (link via Matt Lombardo of NJ.com), joins a line that will also heavily feature Cox, Curry, Brandon Graham and Bennie Logan.

At linebacker, Jordan Hicks, Mychal Kendricks and Kiko Alonso figure to get the lion’s share of playing time. Kendricks and Alonso both struggled last season, but the hope is their play will recover under Schwartz. Regardless, the Eagles could use more linebacker depth, especially with Ryans’ future in question.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

As mentioned, the Eagles have made sizable financial commitments to Curry, Johnson, Ertz and Celek in recent weeks. Next on their agenda is Fletcher Cox, who will be more expensive than everyone in that group.

Fletcher Cox (vertical)The 25-year-old is poised to become one of the league’s richest defenders, in fact, with Eliot Shorr-Parks of NJ.com forecasting $50MM+ in guaranteed money and Jason Fitzgerald adding (via Twitter) that Cox has a chance to surpass the deal Marcell Dareus signed with the Bills last year. Dareus averages $15.85MM per year, with $60MM in total guarantees ($42.9MM fully guaranteed), as the league’s second-highest-paid DT. Earlier this week, Shorr-Parks reported that the Eagles are getting close to an extension with Cox, which the player seemed to deny (on Twitter).

A first-rounder in 2012, Cox is entering his fifth-year option season and is scheduled to make $7.799MM. The former Mississippi State standout earned his first Pro Bowl nod last season after tallying career highs in tackles (71), sacks (9.5) and forced fumbles (three).

Like Cox, Malcolm Jenkins is coming off a wildly successful campaign and is going into a contract year. Jenkins started all of the Eagles’ games, finished tops among NFL defensive backs in snap percentage (99.8), made 109 tackles, created five turnovers (three INTs, two fumbles), and ranked as PFF’s second-best safety. The seven-year veteran is now eagerly anticipating his next contract, which he hopes comes from the Eagles.

“Believe me, I’m waiting. I’m trying to get in line just like everybody else,” he told SiriusXM Radio this month (via McLane). “That’s something I can’t control. But I’m definitely interested in staying. I want to be in Philly long-term.”

Jenkins, who signed with the Eagles for three years and $16.25MM in 2014, is slated to rake in $5MM next season. Considering his track record, Jenkins’ next contract should put him in the top tier of safeties. One fairly comparable player is Devin McCourty, whom the Patriots signed to a five-year, $47.5MM deal last offseason. McCourty was entering his age-28 season then and had one Pro Bowl and a pair of second-team All-Pro honors to his name. He now ranks in the top three among safeties in contract value, guarantees ($22MM) and annual amount ($9.5MM). Jenkins, with one Pro Bowl bid and a second-team All-Pro selection on his resume, is in line to become a free agent at 29.

The Eagles are also at risk of losing Bennie Logan in a year. The 2013 third-rounder has missed only two games in three seasons and is fresh off a year in which PFF rated him as the league’s 13th-best interior defender against the run, but there hasn’t been reported talk of an extension for him. Logan is set to cap off his rookie contract with a base salary worth around $1.64MM next season. While the value of his next deal is hard to gauge, it’ll be worth appreciably more than his current salary. An accord in the range of $4MM to $5MM per annum would place Logan among the league’s 15 highest-paid 4-3 DTs in yearly value.

Overall Outlook:

Evidenced by the contract extensions they’ve doled out since their season ended, the Eagles are clearly making a concerted effort to retain their homegrown core. But deciding whether to keep Bradford, an outside acquisition, could be their most agonizing and important choice in the coming months. The Eagles certainly aren’t devoid of talent, so they’ll be prime bounce-back candidates in 2016 if they make the right move under center.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 2/7/16 – 2/14/16

February 14th, 2016 at 3:49pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original analysis and content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Offseason Outlook: New York Giants

February 13th, 2016 at 10:00pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Eli Manning, QB: $24,200,000
  2. Victor Cruz, WR: $9,900,000
  3. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB: $8,000,000
  4. Will Beatty, T: $5,000,000 (dead money)
  5. Shane Vereen, RB: $4,916,666
  6. J.T. Thomas, LB: $4,000,000
  7. Dwayne Harris, WR: $3,800,000
  8. Jonathan Casillas, LB: $3,416,666
  9. Ereck Flowers, T: $3,270,871
  10. Odell Beckham Jr., WR: $2,838,054
  11. Rashad Jennings, RB: $2,812,500
  12. Justin Pugh, T: $2,655,513
  13. Marshall Newhouse, T: $1,950,000
  14. Geoff Schwartz, G: $1,916,667 (dead money)
  15. John Jerry, G: $1,900,000

Notable coaching/front office changes:

Draft:

  • No. 10 overall pick
  • Owe conditional seventh-round pick to Steelers in deal for P Brad Wing.
    • Conditions aren’t known, but since Wing spent the entire season on Giants’ roster, the conditions were almost certainly met.

Other:

Overview:

It’s a new year and a new look on the sidelines in New York. Well, sort of.Tom Coughlin

In January, Tom Coughlin and the Giants opted to go their separate ways. Coughlin, who previously served as head coach of the Jaguars, led the Giants to a 102-90 record during his 12 seasons with the team. He also added eight victories in 11 postseason contests, with all of those wins coming in two seasons – 2007 and 2011 – during which the Giants won the Super Bowl. In recent years, however, Coughlin’s Giants struggled, having failed to earn a postseason berth since that 2011 Super Bowl season. After going 9-7 in 2012, New York has had three straight losing years, finishing 6-10 in a weak NFC East in 2015 and sealing Coughlin’s fate.

After Coughlin’s departure, the Giants decided to cast a wide net in their head coaching search. The Giants interviewed the likes of Teryl Austin, Doug Marrone, Mike Smith, Adam Gase, and Hue Jackson. They also showed interest in Panthers DC Sean McDermott and were said to be fawning over Saints head coach Sean Payton. Still, they prioritized two interviews in particular – one with defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and one with offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. In mid-January, the Giants decided that the right man for the job was in-house all along when they promoted McAdoo to head coach.

McAdoo, who was hired as the Giants’ offensive coordinator in 2014, has helped Eli Manning enjoy perhaps the most productive two-year stretch of his NFL career. Although the club has posted a 6-10 record in consecutive seasons, Manning has thrived, averaging 4,423 yards and about 33 touchdowns per season over the last two years, to go along with a 92.9 rating. The Giants finished in the top eight in the NFL in terms of both yards per game (372.3) and points per game (26.3) in 2015.

Manning was vocal in his support of McAdoo and told a New York radio station earlier this month that he felt that McAdoo reminded him a lot of Coughlin. Manning’s endorsement alone did not get McAdoo the job, but there’s little doubt that it played a part.

After winning a combined 12 games over the last two seasons, the Giants are hoping to achieve a double-digit win total in 2016. Can they do it? Here’s a look at their offseason to-do list and their potential options.

Key Free Agents:

The Giants are expected to have more than $50MM in cap space at their disposal this spring, thanks to the massive list of free agents you see at the top of this article. There are several notable free agents that the Giants will consider hanging on to, including cornerback Prince Amukamara.

Amukamara has had an up-and-down run with the Giants since his entry into the league in 2011, but some of his problems can be chalked up to injury. Of course, that’s a double-edged sword when evaluating a free agent. Amukamara’s only 16-game season came in 2013 and in the last two years, he has only taken the field for 19 contests. Still, in his 11 games in 2015, Amukamara was a difference maker, notching 63 total tackles, 10 pass deflections, one fumble recovery, and one interception. When healthy, Amukamara has demonstrated the ability that made him the No. 19 overall pick in the 2011 draft. I’d expect the Giants to make an effort to re-sign Amukamara before free agency officially gets underway, but the team will only go so far to retain him given the options that are out there at cornerback.

"<strongFor the last year, Giants fans have been buzzing about the future of defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. Of course, JPP’s story took a bizarre and tragic turn last July when a fireworks accident cost him a finger and probably millions of dollars. Pierre-Paul got back to football in the fall and was extremely motivated on the field to prove the naysayers wrong. However, for all of his grit and work ethic, he did not look like the same player he did before the hand injury.

Some reports indicated that Pierre-Paul turned down a ~$60MM contract offer from the Giants prior to his 4th of July accident. At this stage, it’s highly unlikely that anyone will be making such an offer to the once-dominant defensive end. Still, Pierre-Paul showed that he can cause trouble for opposing quarterbacks and he could still hold value for the Giants (and other clubs) on a short-term deal. One has to think that the Giants will first explore re-signing JPP to a short-term deal that includes performance-based incentives. JPP’s reps, meanwhile, probably will push for more guaranteed money up front.

The football world (not to mention the fantasy football world) has been waiting for wide receiver Rueben Randle to take off and establish himself as a star wide receiver. We’re now four years into his NFL career and onlookers are no longer waiting with bated breath. Randle has shown flashes in the past, but he has yet to put it altogether and the Giants can probably find a better partner for Odell Beckham Jr. elsewhere. For his part, Randle says he wants to stay in New York.

Defensive end Robert Ayers has played in exactly 12 games in each of the last two seasons for the Giants, but he has proven to be a disruptive force each time. This past season, Ayers notched a career-high 9.0 sacks to go along with 41 total tackles, and the Giants’ pass-rush unit would be lacking if he signs elsewhere.

Last summer, Jasper Brinkley inked a two-year contract with Dallas that included $2MM in guaranteed cash. Months later, the Cowboys decided they’d rather give Brinkley that dough to go elsewhere, and less than 24 hours after he hit the open market, the Giants were there to scoop him up on a one-year deal. A former fifth-round pick, Brinkley started 11 games for Minnesota in 2014, compiling 75 tackles and a sack. This past year, Brinkley started 9 games (playing in 15 total) and racked up 66 total tackles with four forced fumbles and one sack. Brinkley was initially brought in to serve in a reserve role, but a November injury to Jon Beason made him a more central part of the team’s front seven. Now that Beason is retiring (more on that later), Brinkley could be retained as a strong rotational option. Then again, Brinkley will turn 31 in July and the Giants may opt to go younger at linebacker.

Possible Cap Casualties:

"<strongWhat will the Giants do with Victor Cruz? Just two short years ago, Cruz was the darling of New York and the focal point of their passing attack. Now, Beckham Jr. is the team’s ace wide receiver of the future and Cruz has not seen the field since October 12th, 2014.

Cruz was working his way back from a torn patellar tendon that forced him to miss most of 2014 season when, during his recovery, he injured his calf. In November 2015, he was placed on IR before his season could even get started. Cruz is currently set to count $9.9MM against the Giants’ cap in 2016 and none of his remaining $24MM over the next three years is guaranteed, so he’s unlikely to continue on his current contract. However, there’s no reason why the two sides couldn’t agree to a reworked deal that includes a pay cut.

Last year, the Giants were dealt an absolute gut punch when offensive tackle Will Beatty was ruled out for the entire 2015 campaign due to pectoral and rotator cuff injuries. The Giants also badly missed the services of offensive guard Geoff Schwartz. Both players were set to return in 2016 at considerable salaries, but just days ago, Big Blue opted to release both of the linemen.

Schwartz, 29, started 11 games for the Giants in 2015, but his seasons was cut short when he fractured a bone in his left leg in late November, forcing the team to place him on injured reserve. By releasing him, the Giants will avoid paying him $3.925MM annual salaries this year and next year, taking on a hit of about $1.917MM in dead money for 2016. The move creates nearly $3MM in cap savings for the club, while Schwartz – like his brother Mitchell Schwartz – figures to be on the lookout for a new home. Releasing Beatty, meanwhile, will leave $5MM in dead money on the Giants’ 2015 cap, but the move will also clear $4.175MM in space.

The Giants also said adios to linebacker Jon Beason, who announced his retirement. Beason said that he wanted to continue playing, but after consulting with numerous doctors, those experts unanimously recommending that he retire because of his injured knee. Beason would have been owed a $1MM roster bonus if he were still on the Giants’ roster on the fifth day of the 2016 league year. Instead, the Giants’ will clear that bonus, $1.2MM in per-game roster bonuses, a $100K workout bonus, and his $2.8MM base salary from their cap, creating a total of $5.1MM in cap savings. Taking into account the Beason, Schwartz, and Beatty moves, the Giants created more than $12.2MM in cap savings.

Positions Of Need:

Just like last offseason, the safety position stands as one of the Giants’ biggest needs. Last year, the Giants aimed high when they tried to bring Devin McCourty back to New Jersey. When the Rutgers alum returned to the Patriots, the Giants were left scrambling and could not come up with a high-impact solution.

If the Giants want to aim high once again, they could make a run at Chiefs free agent Eric Berry. The two sides are said to be working on an extension, and he’s a candidate for the franchise tag, but Berry would be a phenomenal fit for the Giants if he reaches the open market. Appearing in all 16 games for Kansas City in 2015, Berry logged 61 tackles to go along with a pair of interceptions and 10 passes defended. Pro Football Focus ranked the Tennessee product sixth among 88 qualified safeties. The standout season earned Berry his fourth Pro Bowl berth, along with a spot on the NFL’s All-Pro first team.

The Giants will also have to bolster their defensive line, particularly on the bookends if JPP and/or Ayers are not retained. In theory, Owa Odighizuwa could be elevated to a more significant role, but the club will have to improve its depth in that regard at the very least. The best Giants teams in recent years have relied on strong play from their defensive ends and it’s not like Justin Tuck is walking back through that door (though, technically, he will be back on a one-day deal before retiring).

On the interior of the defensive line, the Giants will have to find some outside help, particularly if Cullen Jenkins leaves in free agency or retires. The club was expecting a big leap forward from Jay Bromley in his second year, but the rising junior probably can’t be counted upon as a starter. A Syracuse product, Bromley started four games for the Giants this season and appeared in all 16, making 19 total tackles.

The Giants and Cruz will likely discuss a re-worked contract at a reduced salary, but that probably won’t end the club’s search for a secondary wide receiver. Entering his third season, ODB figures to draw double coverage from every opposing team unless the Giants can find a credible threat to line up on the opposite side of the field.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

There aren’t a lot of strong veteran candidates for extensions on the Giants’ roster, but there are a pair of players from the 2013 draft class who could get consideration for new contracts.

Guard/tackle Justin Pugh is now one of the key members’ of the team’s offensive line, following the releases of Schwartz and Beatty, so the club could look into extending his rookie contract, though he has a fifth-year option for 2017.

Defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins, who was placed on IR in November, could be a buy-low candidate if the Giants want to lock him down for future seasons.

Overall Outlook:

The Giants have tons of cap space and flexibility to make major changes, but they’re far from the only team with spending room this spring. The Giants will have to play it smart in free agency and, more importantly, get it right in the draft. Overall, GM Jerry Reese doesn’t have the best track record when it comes to picking college prospects.

“The last couple of drafts have been much more productive. But we had a few in there where we just haven’t seen the production. Your core players are your third, fourth, fifth-year players. If you look back at those draft classes, there’s not a lot of them that are playing right now,” co-owner John Mara said in January.

This year, the Giants hold the No. 10 overall pick, two spots higher than where they landed Beckham Jr. in 2014. They appear to be in prime position to land a promising defensive lineman like Oklahoma St. DE Emmanuel Ogbah, but they’ll have to nail their picks in the later rounds as well in order to put themselves in a better position going forward.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Bears

February 12th, 2016 at 9:52pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Jay Cutler, QB: $17,000,000
  2. Jermon Bushrod, T: $8,700,000
  3. Pernell McPhee, OLB: $7,675,000
  4. Lamarr Houston, OLB: $6,990,000
  5. Martellus Bennett, TE: $6,310,000
  6. Eddie Royal, WR: $4,500,000
  7. Robbie Gould, K: $4,100,000
  8. Kevin White, WR: $3,764,329
  9. Matt Slauson, G: $3,405,000
  10. Willie Young, OLB: $3,166,668
  11. Antrel Rolle, S: $2,718,750
  12. Kyle Fuller, CB: $2,641,909
  13. Kyle Long, T: $2,641,212
  14. Tim Jennings, CB: $1,500,000 (dead money)
  15. Eddie Goldman, DT: $1,292,344

Notable coaching/front office changes:

  • Offensive coordinator: Promoted QBs coach Dowell Loggains to replace Adam Gase, who left to become Dolphins’ HC.
  • Quarterbacks coach: Hired Dave Ragone to replace Dowell Loggains.

Draft:

  • No. 11 overall pick
  • Acquired sixth-round pick from Patriots in deal for LB Jon Bostic.
  • Acquired conditional sixth-round pick from Panthers in deal for DE Jared Allen.
    • Conditions aren’t known, but likely were met.

Other:

  • Current projected cap room (via Over the Cap): $51.6MM
  • Must exercise or decline fifth-year option for 2017 for T Kyle Long.

Overview:

2015 was largely billed as a rebuilding year for the Bears, and while a 6-10 record is certainly indicative of such a process, you’d be hard-pressed to find Chicago fans who weren’t — at the least — encouraged by last season’s outcome (and are now more enthused about the future). And a large chunk of that excitement, undoubtedly, is due to the successful ’15 campaign of quarterback Jay Cutler.Jay Cutler (Vertical)

If you’ll think back to last season, Cutler’s fate with the Bears seemed to be sealed — he was benched by the previous Chicago regime at the end of the 2014 season, and subsequently, was anything but endorsed by new head coach John Fox and new general manager Ryan Pace. Speaking at last year’s combine, neither decision-maker fully committed to Cutler, and he was widely reported to be on the trade block.

But with the help of new offensive coordinator Adam Gase, Cutler rebounded, posting the lowest full-season interception total of his career, tossing 21 touchdowns, and finishing as a top-10 quarterback in Football Outsiders’ DYAR metric. Gase has since departed to become the Dolphins head coach, but with Cutler confidant Dowell Loggains having been promoted to play-caller, the quarterback position in Chicago seems to be set, at least for the time being.

On the other side of the ball, the Bears defense finished 14th in yards, 20th in scoring, but 31st in DVOA (they were 28th in weighted DVOA — which places more emphasis on the team’s most recent games — meaning the unit got slightly better as the year progressed). The numbers aren’t great, but given that Chicago is somewhat devoid of talent of talent on defense, they actually speak pretty well of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

It’s an important offseason for Pace and the rest of the Bears front office, so let’s take a look at what lies in store for Chicago over the next several months.

Key Free Agents:

Topping the list of Chicago’s free agents is receiver Alshon Jeffery, who despite missing seven games with nagging injuries, still managed to have a very productive season (at least on a rate basis). He caught four touchdowns in his starts, and managed nearly 90 yards receiving per game, good for eighth in the league. Jeffery will turn just 26 years old on Valentine’s Day, and as the best receiver available on the open market — and the No. 2 overall free agent in our most recent power rankings — he’s certainly set up for a big payday.Alshon Jeffery (Vertical)

Threatening that contract potential, of course, is the Bears’ option to tender Jeffery the franchise tag, and retain him on a one-year deal at a cost of $14MM+. The incentives for a extension are obvious for both parties — financial security for Jeffery, retaining its best offensive weapon/lower initial cap charges for Chicago — but it’s not a certainty that a deal gets done. For their part, the Bears sound amenable to a long-term contract, but speaking last month, Jeffery didn’t sound quite as enthusiastic about such a pact.

Comps are available whether Jeffery seeks a five-year deal (like Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, and Julio Jones) or a four-year contract (like A.J. Green). Green, at $15MM annually, received a higher AAV than did the five-year deal cadre, but garnered a much lower guarantee. His $26.75MM in guarantees pales in comparison the five-year trio, each of whom received at least $30MM in guaranteed money. Personally, I’d guess that Jeffery would push for the longer contract and thus the higher guarantee — with his injury history, he should probably secure as much money as he can immediately.

Staying among the offensive skill positions, we come to running back Matt Forte, the longest-tenured Bear on the roster with the exception of kicker Robbie Gould. Forte, who turned 30 in December, failed to top 1,000 yards rushing for the first time since 2011, and as he announced earlier today, he won’t be returning to Chicago for a ninth season.

“Despite my wishes, my days as a member of the Chicago Bears have sadly come to an end,” Forte said in an Instagram post. “I was informed earlier this week from the GM that they will not be attempting to re-sign me in free agency. I will remain forever grateful for my time spent in Chicago and being able to play for an organization with such a rich history.

It makes sense that the Bears want to get younger on offense, and the duo of Jeremy Langford and Ka’Deem Carey will likely handle the load in 2016. It could be good news for Forte, as well, as he can seek to latch on with a surefire contender — he’ll probably find a short-term deal with a new club, and the Patriots look like one early suitor.Zach Miller (Nebraska-Omaha)

Elsewhere on offense, tight end Zach Miller is said to be targeting a $5MM average annual value after a breakout campaign that saw him post career-highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. But as PFR’s Luke Adams wrote in that linked post, $5MM could be a tough sell — the Browns’ Gary Barnidge, for example, had better numbers and failed to reach that mark. More likely, the 31-year-old Miller will settle for a lower salary, whether it be with the Bears or another club.

Receiver Marc Mariani — largely a return man to this point in his career — saw his largest role in an offense since 2011, playing on almost 50% of Chicago’s offensive snaps. He’s still a viable special-teamer, but a strong offensive unit probably doesn’t use someone of Mariani’s caliber quite as often. Along the line, Vlad Ducasse started 11 games, and was predictably disappointing, grading as the league’s No. 47 guard, according to Pro Football Focus — the Bears should seek an upgrade.

Let’s move to the defense, where, as noted above, coordinator Vic Fangio didn’t really have the horses, but still coaxed a somewhat respectable performance. Along the defensive line, two ends who saw significant playing time — Jarvis Jenkins and Mitch Unrein — are heading for free agency. Neither was spectacular, and given that I expect the Bears to target line help via either free agency or the draft, I wouldn’t anticipate either being retained as anything more than depth pieces on the veteran’s minimum.

Former first-round pick Shea McClellin has bounced around to several positions along the front seven during his career, but despite all the positional changes, he never seems to find success. He graded out as the league’s No. 88 linebacker among 97 qualifiers, per PFF, and despite McLellin expressing interest in re-signing, it’s time for the Bears to move on. Conversely, Chicago should look to re-sign Sam Acho, who was not only a valuable contributor on special teams, but saw action on 43% of the club’s defensive snaps. He’s always been a personal favorite of mine, and the Bears can once again keep him around via the minimum salary benefit, they should jump at the opportunity.

In the secondary, Tracy Porter spent the entire season as a starting corner opposite Kyle Fuller, but wasn’t overly effective, and the Bears should definitely look for an upgrade. Alan Ball, Chris Prosinski, and Sherrod Martin (the latter of whom was recently singled out by Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com) can all be replaced by younger, cheaper options. Meanwhile, Dickerson did advocate for Chicago to re-sign cornerback Sherrick McManis, who is a special teams ace.

Possible Cap Casualties:

Fresh off the beast season of his career in 2014, tight end Martellus Bennett disappointed in 2015 for a number of reasons. He was never fully healthy, and he missed five games while posting his lowest yards per reception since 2010. Additionally, there were reports that Bennett was unhappy not only with his contract, but with his role in the Bears’ offense (claims that his agent and GM Ryan Pace have since denied).Martellus Bennett (Vertical)_

Assuming that Alshon Jeffery is retained and Matt Forte is not, Bennett figures to be the second-best weapon on the Chicago offense, and his 2016 cap charge of $6.31MM is more than reasonable. So his status really comes down to his relationship with the club, something that’s hard for us to judge. Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com recently argued for the Bears to trade Bennett, and if the reports of the rift are accurate, and another club is willing to part with draft compensation, I suppose that’s an option. Releasing Bennett would save Chicago $5.185MM against the cap, and if that happens, it would be clear the relationship had soured.

Left tackle Jermon Bushrod will almost certainly be released after a 2015 campaign that saw him lose his starting job to former seventh-round pick Charles Leno. Designating Bushrod as a post-June 1 cut would make some sense, as that move would spread his dead money out over two seasons ($2.2MM in both ’16 and ’17). But given that the Bears are flush with cap space, I’d expect them to bite the bullet and take the full $4.4MM hit immediately.

Having played in only seven games due to injury issues, 33-year-old safety Antrel Rolle would make sense a release candidate. However, Rolle’s contract was structured in such a way that his cap numbers for both 2016 and 2017 are quite low (~$2.71MM next season). The deal has no dead money remaining, so Chicago would clear his entire cap hit, but the secondary is so devoid of talent that I’d expect the club to take another chance with Rolle, a former first-round pick and Pro Bowler. Larry Meyer of ChicagoBears.com last month profiled Rolle and his determination to rebound in 2016.

Defensive end/linebacker Lamarr Houston was rumored to be on the trade block last season, and I wonder if that thought could cross the Bears’ decision-makers’ minds once again. Houston wasn’t great in his transition from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 outside linebacker, so a switch back to a 4-3 scheme might do him good. A trade (or a pre-June 1 cut) would give the Bears more than $4MM in cap savings, so it’s a move they’ll probably consider.

Positions Of Need:

The Bears enter the 2016 offseason with $51.6MM in projected cap space, good for fourth in the NFL (for now), and I expect the team to be active in free agency. General manager Ryan Pace has said as much, noting that his club will need to use free agency to augment their roster due to team needs. However, Pace has also said that he doesn’t expect Chicago to use its excess cap room to pursue a high-profile free agent, preferring to spread the wealth and bring in several players at reasonable values.

Most every area of need in Chicago comes on the defensive side of the ball, so let’s go ahead and get the offense out of the way. Presuming Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett are retained and 2015 first-rounder Kevin White comes back healthy, the Bears should be mostly set on offense. They will need to replace Vlad Ducasse at left guard, but I don’t expect them to spend at the top of the market to do so. If Alex Boone‘s price comes down, I could see him landing in Chicago, and the recently-released Geoff Schwartz could also make some sense.Danny Trevathan (vertical)

The most pressing needs are on defense, starting with linebacker. The most obvious candidate to help at that spot is Broncos free agent Danny Trevathan, who has already stated he expects interest from the Bears based on his relationship and familiarity with John Fox. Fellow Denver linebacker Brandon Marshall is also a free agent, albeit one of the restricted variety. The Broncos will likely place a first- or second-round tender on Marshall, making Trevathan the preferred option.

Trevathan alone probably won’t cut it, as Chicago could use two new starting inside linebackers. It’s a cheap position, so if the Bears want to use free agency for both replacements instead of using a draft pick, they can. Veteran Joe Mays shouldn’t cost much on a one-year deal (and like Trevathan, has a history with Fox), while the Browns’ Craig Robertson or the Titans’ Zach Brown — each of whom excels in pass coverage — could also be targeted.

Adding another edge defender also wouldn’t hurt, and while the dream scenario is luring Super Bowl MVP Von Miller to Chicago, that simply is not going to happen, as Miller will either re-sign with Denver or get the franchise tag. The Bears could take a flyer on someone like Nick Perry or Courtney Upshaw, each of whom were relatively high draft picks who have failed to live up to their billing. The draft could also aid here, as Matt Miller of Bleacher Report has the Bears selecting Georgia’s Leonard Floyd in the first round of his most recent mock draft.

Along the defensive line, Chicago is probably set at nose tackle with Eddie Goldman, though the 49ers’ Ian Williams has a history with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Williams could conceivably shift to end in the Bears’ scheme, but he’ll be expensive, as he’s just 26 years old and is coming off a ver solid season.

At end, Muhammad Wilkerson will likely be franchised, and while he’s thought to be a trade candidate, I don’t think the Bears would (or should) give up their first-round pick – and pony up the extension money – for Wilkerson, who is coming off a broken leg. Instead, I expect Chicago to target Malik Jackson based on his history with Fox. Jackson won’t be cheap, and given the recent extensions inked by 3-4 defensive ends, he’s surely targeting a $11MM yearly value.

Ideally, the Bears would use the majority of their cap space on improving their front seven, and then use the draft and/or the second and third waves of free agency to solidify the back end. Chicago can make do with Kyle Fuller, Tracy Porter (if re-signed), Antrel Rolle, and Adrian Amos in the secondary, but adding another piece at either corner or safety wouldn’t be a bad idea. Josh Robinson could be intriguing at corner, while Rashad Johnson could be a target at safety.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Kyle Long has been named to the Pro Bowl in each of his three seasons in the league, and having transitioned from guard to tackle prior to the 2015 campaign, he’s now been to the all-star game at two positions. His 2017 fifth-year option will be exercised, and the Bears can begin working towards an extension immediately.Kyle Long (Vertical)

Long’s extension case is an interesting one given his recent positional change, but there is a recent example that is somewhat similar to Long’s situation — Eagles tackle Lane Johnson. Johnson, of course, has spent the entirety of his career on the right side, but his new five-year, $56.26MM contract was clearly negotiated with the assumption that he’ll replace Jason Peters at left tackle in due time.

It’s not clear if the Bears plan to move Long to the left side at some point, but as John Mullin of CSNChicago.com wrote last week, Long is set up for a big payday regardless. He should be able to surpass every other right tackle besides Johnson in terms of yearly value and guarantee, and if the plan is to eventually move Long to the blind side (and that plan is communicated to Long’s representation), he could match – or surpass – Johnson’s extension.

Overall Outlook:

The Bears can’t afford regression from their offense, as their defense – barring a complete turnaround – figures to once again be a weak point. Retaining Alshon Jeffery and investing more in the offensive line will only buoy Jay Cutler‘s production, and if the defense can finish as, say, a top 20 unit by DVOA, Chicago probably won’t go 6-10 again. The NFC North is a tough division, and Green Bay and Minnesota once again look like the favorites, but pending a solid offseason, it’s not out of the question that the Bears could compete for a Wild Card spot.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2016 Proven Performance Escalators

February 12th, 2016 at 5:53pm CST by Dallas Robinson

According to the NFL’s contractual bargaining agreement, players drafted in rounds three though seven are entitled to raises during the fourth year of their respective rookie contracts. The pay bumps are tied to playing time — a player must have played in 35% of his team’s offensive or defensive snaps in two of his first three seasons, or averaged 35% playing time cumulatively during that period.

If one of these thresholds is met, the player’s salary is elevated to the level of that year’s lowest restricted free agent tender — that figure is projected to be $1.696MM in 2016. Players selected in the first or second round, undrafted free agents, and kickers/punters are ineligible for the proven performance escalator.

Here are the players who will see their salary rise in 2016 courtesy of the proven performance escalator:Keenan Allen (Vertical)

49ers: Gerald Hodges, LB

Bears: Marquess Wilson, WR

Buccaneers: William Gholston, DE; Mike Glennon, QB; Akeem Spence, DT

Cardinals: Andre Ellington, RB; Tyrann Mathieu, CB/S; Alex Okafor, LB

Chargers: Keenan Allen, WR

Colts: Sio Moore, LB; Hugh Thornton, G

Cowboys: J.J. Wilcox, S; Terrance Williams, WR

Dolphins: Jelani Jenkins, LB; Dallas Thomas, T; Dion Sims, TE; Kenny Stills, WR

Eagles: Bennie Logan, DT

Falcons: Kemal Ishmael, S; Levine Toilolo, TE

Jaguars: Josh Evans, S; Dwayne Gratz, CB

Jets: Brian Winters, G

Lions: Larry Warford, G

Packers: David Bakhtiari, T; Micah Hyde, S

Patriots: Duron Harmon, S; Chris Jones, DT; Logan Ryan, CB

Raiders: Mychal Rivera, TE

Rams: T.J. McDonald, S

Ravens: Ricky Wagner, T; Brandon Williams, DT

Saints: Terron Armstead, T; John Jenkins, DT

Seahawks: Luke Willson, TE

Steelers: Markus Wheaton, WR

Titans: Brian Schwenke, C

Washington: Jordan Reed, TE

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