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Offseason Outlook: Houston Texans

February 23rd, 2016 at 10:30pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. J.J. Watt, DE: $14,500,000
  2. Duane Brown, T: $9,500,000
  3. Brian Cushing, ILB: $9,047,500
  4. Arian Foster, RB: $8,925,000
  5. Kareem Jackson, CB: $8,437,500
  6. Johnathan Joseph, CB: $7,000,000
  7. Jadeveon Clowney, OLB: $6,074,454
  8. Whitney Mercilus, OLB: $5,800,000
  9. Derek Newton, T: $5,500,000
  10. Vince Wilfork, DT: $5,500,000
  11. Brian Hoyer, QB: $4,859,375
  12. Rahim Moore, S: $4,068,750
  13. Garrett Graham, TE: $3,875,000
  14. Cecil Shorts, WR: $3,421,875
  15. Akeem Dent, ILB: $2,562,500

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • Defensive staff: LBs coach Mike Vrabel reportedly turned down offer to become 49ers’ DC to stay with Texans.
  • Special teams coordinator: Hired Giants assistant ST coach Larry Izzo to replace Bob Ligashesky.

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

The Texans snuck into the playoffs last season, winning the AFC South with a record of 9-7 before losing to Chiefs in the Wild Card round. 2015 can be labeled a success in Houston, to be sure, but the division title has to be taken with a grain of salt, as the Colts stumbled to a 8-8 record while relying on 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck, and the Jaguars and Titans were still in the midst of rebuilding (each own top-five picks in the 2016 draft).Bill O'Brien (Vertical)

It was a tale of two halves in Houston, and the club’s postseason berth can be tied to its improved level of play — at least, on the defensive side of the ball — after the bye week in early November. The Texans defense allowed just 270 yards per game from Week 10, as opposed to 350 yards per contest before the break. The numbers improved in each phase of the game, as the club’s passing yards allowed per game dropped from 231 to 193 after the bye, and its rushing yards allowed per game dropped from 104 to just 76. During the season’s final three games (all Houston victories), the Texans gave up just 112 (!) total yards on the ground.

The club was least successful on offense, thanks in part to injuries suffered by star running back Arian Foster — the 29-year-old sustained a groin injury in training camp that caused him to miss the first three weeks of the season, and he played in just four games before tearing his Achilles. We’ll get into Foster’s long-term status with the Texans a bit later, but his absence was certainly felt throughout the season.

Houston’s passing game was pretty ineffective all season (22nd in DVOA), but Brian Hoyer was actually competent, posting career-highs in completion percentage and passing touchdowns. He only started nine games, however, due both to injury and head coach Bill O’Brien‘s waffling between Hoyer and Ryan Mallett, and both T.J. Yates and Brandon Weeden were forced to make starts.

The Texans’ roster boasts legitimate stars in J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins, above-average players like Duane Brown and Kareem Jackson, and intriguing youth at important positions in Jadeveon Clowney and Kevin Johnson. The core is certainly there, but can Houston find its long-term signal-caller?

Key Free Agents:

The three most important Texans free agents play on the line, and two of them — guard Brandon Brooks and center Ben Jones — take their stances on the offensive side of the ball. Of the pair, Jones is probably more likely to return in 2016. In his first season transitioning from guard to center, Jones acquitted himself well, grading as the 18th-best at his position, per Pro Football Focus. Jones is the best available free agent center, however, so the Texans might face competition for his services if they aren’t able to re-sign him before March 9.Brandon Brooks (Vertical)

Brooks, meanwhile, will certainly attract other suitors around the league, as Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle reported earlier this month that Brooks will be in “heavy demand” if he reaches free agency. Brooks, 26, has been a stalwart at right guard during the past three years, starting 44 games during that period. He should be able to land a four-year deal on the open market.

The third key free agent lineman is a defender, defensive end Jared Crick. The 26-year-old Crick has started all but one game for Houston over the past two seasons, lining up at end opposite J.J. Watt. He has expressed his desire to remain with the Texans, but if he’s looking for a big payday in his first trip to free agency, he’s unlikely to find it. Not only would Houston likely balk at paying two defensive lineman hefty salaries, but Crick simply isn’t in the same class as other 3-4 ends like Mike Daniels or Cameron Heyward.

Elsewhere on defense, safety Quintin Demps was a surprise contributor, starting 13 games despite not being signed until August. He wasn’t great, but he was solid in the back end, and though he’s entering his age-31 season, I wouldn’t be shocked if Houston brought Demps back on a low-cost deal, especially if they don’t plan on spending capital on safety in either the draft or free agency.Nate Washington (Vertical)

Like Demps, Nate Washington offered more in 2015 than most expected, posting 47 receptions and four touchdowns while starting 14 games. But the Texans need to add a more accomplished (and younger) wideout to compliment DeAndre Hopkins, something I’ve outlined below. At 32 years old, Washington may not have a place on a contending team’s roster.

As part of the cavalry that filled in for Arian Foster, Chris Polk played in 22.5% of Houston’s offensive snaps, but averaged just 3.4 yards per carry on the ground. Polk was hyped as something of a passing game specialist, and though he did manage 16 receptions, I expect the Texans to move on, and go forth with Alfred Blue and either a draft pick or a free agent addition.

Chris Clark filled in at left tackle during Duane Brown‘s absence, and started four games in total along the offensive line. He’d make a fine swing tackle for another season in 2016, but the Texans shouldn’t overpay to keep him. If another team wants to offer more money to make Clark their starting right tackle, Houston should let him leave.

Shane Lechler finished just 26th in net punting average, and was in the bottom half of the league in dropping punts inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. The veteran punter will be 40 years old when the season starts, and the Texans might need to look elsewhere. The same might hold true at kicker — Nick Novak only missed three kicks (all from 50+ yards), but he did also fail to convert two extra point attempts. Houston also finished 29th in kickoff touchback percentage, so perhaps the club can find a kicker with a more powerful leg.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The most obvious candidate for release on the Texans roster is running back Arian Foster, who, as noted above, missed all but four games last season after suffering multiple injuries. He’ll be 30 years old when the season begins, and he has averaged just eight games played over the past three years. Due to count almost $9MM against the cap in 2016, Foster is likely to be cut — saving Houston about $6.6MM — or at the very least, restructured. Owner Bob McNair said last month that the club would like to see how Foster progresses from his Achilles injury before making a decision.Arian Foster (Vertical)

Houston’s hunt for a quarterback is covered in detail in the next section, but the status of incumbent signal-caller Brian Hoyer is very much up in the air. Ultimately, Hoyer is more than capable as a backup QB, and his ~$4.89MM salary is right in line with Jaguars signal-caller Chad Henne, another recently-signed reserve quarterback. Whether he’s competing for the starting job again next year, or relegated to backup duty, Hoyer’s cap charge is palatable.

Two players making decent money — tight end Garrett Graham and safety Rahim Moore — were effectively written out of the Texans’ game plan down the stretch, as each was a healthy scratch for much of the second half of the season. Houston will almost certainly cut both, saving nearly $7MM in the process.

Finally, linebacker Brian Cushing could be in danger of being released, or at least being asked to accept a pay cut. Owner of the third-highest 2016 cap number of the Texans roster, Cushing graded as just the 70th-best linebacker among 97 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus. The 29-year-old Cushing would probably have to be designated as a post-June 1 cut, which would save Houston $6.25MM next season.

Positions Of Need:

One question is likely on the mind of every Texans fan: Where could this club have gone with an above-average starting quarterback? Finding a franchise signal-caller is item No. 1 on the team’s offseason docket, and until the Texans find such a passer, their upside — despite their dominant defense — is limited.

Texans owner Bob McNair indicated earlier this month that his team would seek a quarterback upgrade, and heavily implied that such addition would come through the draft. At pick No. 22, Houston is unlikely to be in a position to select either of the two top QBs in this year’s draft class, Cal’s Jared Goff or North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz. But using the classic NFL trade value chart, we can see the approximate costs if the Texans wanted to move up (I used mid-round values for future years, so 16th and 48th overall in the first and second rounds, respectively):

Texans trade

Each package listed is steep, to be sure, but the prices generated by the value chart might be shortchanging what the Texans would have to give up. The theoretical Titans haul, you’ll notice, is identical to what the Rams received from Washington in 2012 — and that deal was only allowing Washington to move from No. 6 to No. 2, as opposed to Houston’s hypothetical 21-spot jump.

Still, that Rams/Washington trade is largely though of as overpay (especially considering how Robert Griffin III‘s career panned out), and the wider point stands: it would take quite a slew of draft picks to convince one of the Titans, Browns, or Chargers to move down. So if the Texans are forced to wait until pick No. 22 — or a later round — to select a quarterback, they may have to settle for Memphis’ Paxton Lynch (if they’re lucky), Michigan State’s Connor Cook, or Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg (a former charge of Bill O’Brien).

Of course, the draft isn’t the only avenue the Texans might take in the search for a quarterback, as free agency is an option, too. No club is ever likely to find an elite option on the open market, but there are some competent starters who will be available, starting with the Eagles’ Sam Bradford. Bradford is not expected to see the franchise tag in Philadelphia, but he will still probably command $18MM annually; with more than $32MM in projected cap space, Houston could make that figure work.

Elsewhere in free agency, the Texans could make a play to reunite with Ryan Fitzpatrick, but he’s widely expected to stay in New York. The Broncos, meanwhile, are expected to use their franchise tag on linebacker Von Miller, meaning Brock Osweiler could be available for the taking. Osweiler is said to be comfortable in Denver and likely wants to stay there, but Houston could try to change his mind with a hefty contract.

In exhausting all options, Houston might also look to the trade market to find a new QB. The best choice via that route is probably Colin Kaepernick, who is known to want out of San Francisco, but the Jets’ Geno Smith is also thought to be a trade candidate. Other available quarterbacks — of varying trade cost — might be A.J. McCarron, Zach Mettenberger, and Mike Glennon (who is perpetually not on the trade block).

Finally, at least one reporter — in this case, Tania Ganguli of ESPN.com — believes 2014 fourth-round pick Tom Savage could be fighting for the Texans’ starting job. The ESPN scribe opines that Savage could fight it out with a yet-to-determined rookie for the starting job, with the loser falling to third on the depth chart, and Brian Hoyer sticking around as the No. 2.

While quarterback is an obvious area of need on the Texans’ roster, many of their other potential areas of focus could depend on decisions the club has yet to make. At running back, for example, the release of Arian Foster would create a large hole in the backfield, one that could be filled either by a mid-round draft pick, or by signing a bell-cow like Chris Ivory or Doug Martin. I don’t see the Texans investing enough at running back to lure a big-name free agent, so perhaps drafting a back and pairing him with a lower-cost signing (Bilal Powell? James Starks?) could be one way to go.

Similarly, the offensive line is set at three spots with Duane Brown, Derek Newton, and Xavier Su’a-Filo, but center and right guard are up in the air pending the outcome of Ben Jones and Brandon Brooks‘ free agency. If the Texans do need to bring in reinforcements, one option might be the Patriots’ Marcus Cannon, who is thought to be a candidate for release in New England. The 27-year-old Cannon, who played under O’Brien with the Pats, has spent a decent chunk of time at tackle, but can also play guard, so he could act as a valuable reserve who could be pressed into starting duty if need be. Another low-cost option at guard could be Willie Colon, a free agent who spent time under offensive line coach Mike Devlin with the Jets.

Another point of concern on Houston’s offense is at wide receiver — while Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington were actually pretty productive behind DeAndre Hopkins, the veterans are 28 and 32 years old, respectively, so the Texans might want to get a bit younger. New receivers coach Sean Ryan comes to the club from the Giants, so it’s logical to connect the Texans to Rueben Randle (who is a young free agent at just 24). I also think this is a spot where Houston could use an early draft pick, and they also have last year’s third-round pick Jaelen Strong waiting in the wings.

On defense, the only area that could obviously use improvement is safety, where each of the four players who saw significant time there — Andre Hal, Quintin Demps, Rahim Moore, and Eddie Pleasant — posted middling Pro Football Focus marks (all graded between Nos. 47 and 66 among 88 qualifiers). Hal, a former seventh-round pick, looks to be a find, but Houston could probably aim for another contributor at the position. Eric Berry would certainly be a nice addition — and has experience playing under defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel — but he’s likely to stay in Kansas City. Luckily, the safety market is flush with free agents, so Rodney McLeod or Tashaun Gipson could be options if Houston wants to spend at the top of the market, as could Isa Abdul-Quddus or Dwight Lowery if it doesn’t.

Lastly, the Texans might need a replacement for defensive end Jared Crick if he leaves via free agency. Simply by connecting coaching dots, free agent Randy Starks — experienced with line coach Anthony Weaver — could make sense as a successor. And on special teams, the recently-released Andy Studebaker, who was a special-teams stalwart and reserve linebacker under Crennel (and alongside Houston coach Mike Vrabel), might come on the cheap.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

A no-brainer if there ever was one, the Texans will exercise their fifth-year option on receiver DeAndre Hopkins, ensuring that he’ll remain in Houston through at least 2017. He’s now eligible for an extension, and after a season in which he ranked second in both receptions and receiving yards, and scored 11 touchdowns, Hopkins is set up to ask for the moon.DeAndre Hopkins (Vertical)

Calvin Johnson‘s $16MM+ annual rate probably won’t be topped any time soon, but Hopkins has every right to ask for A.J. Green‘s $15MM per year figure. And while Green only garnered a four-year term, and thus a lower guarantee, Hopkins figures to ask for five years and more than $35MM guaranteed, on par with Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, and Demaryius Thomas. Hopkins has made it clear he’d like to be a Texan for life, so perhaps negotiations won’t be too difficult.

Outside of Hopkins, the 2013 draft was largely a failure for the Texans, so most of the other extension-eligible players from that class either aren’t on the roster anymore or aren’t worth extending. The only exception might be tight end Ryan Griffin, who was selected in the seventh round of that draft. He has overtaken Garrett Graham on the depth chart, and if Bill O’Brien feels that Griffin is a good fit for his offense, now could be a good time to look at a long-term deal.

Overall Outlook:

If the Texans don’t find a long-term answer at quarterback, any other move they make this offseason is essentially moot. Yes, Houston won the division last season, and even without a QB upgrade, they should be competitive again. But with Andrew Luck expected back with the Colts at full strength, the path to the AFC South title will get a lot more challenging. The Texans have other items on their to-do list — make a decision on Arian Foster, extend DeAndre Hopkins, find a legitimate No. 2 wideout — but the search for a top-flight signal-caller should take precedence over all else.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Buffalo Bills

February 22nd, 2016 at 10:00pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Mario Williams, DE: $19,900,000
  2. Marcell Dareus, DT: $14,550,000
  3. Charles Clay, TE: $13,500,000
  4. Stephon Gilmore, CB: $11,082,000
  5. Kyle Williams, DT: $8,000,000
  6. LeSean McCoy, RB: $7,675,000
  7. Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB: $7,575,000
  8. Eric Wood, C: $6,725,000
  9. Aaron Williams, S: $6,100,000
  10. Sammy Watkins, WR: $5,436,983
  11. Corey Graham, CB: $5,375,000
  12. Leodis McKelvin, CB: $4,900,000
  13. Manny Lawson, LB: $3,400,000
  14. Tyrod Taylor, QB: $3,133,333
  15. Dan Carpenter, K: $2,837,500

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • Defensive staff: Hired former Saints DC Rob Ryan as assistant head coach/defense.
  • Defensive staff: Hired former Ravens S Ed Reed as assistant defensive backs coach.
  • General manager: Extended Doug Whaley through 2019 season.

Draft:

  • No. 19 overall pick
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Vikings in deal for QB Matt Cassel.

Other:

Overview:

When the Bills hired Rex Ryan as their head coach last winter, he expressed a desire to construct a team capable of beating opponents into submission with a suffocating defense and a dominant running game. He also spoke optimistically about the prospect of the club breaking what was then an NFL-worst streak of 15 straight years without a playoff berth.

Twelve months later, the postseason drought is at 16 years after the Ryan-led Bills finished 8-8, a slight drop from the team’s 9-7 mark in 2014. As for Ryan’s build-a-bully approach, he got half of what he wanted. It just wasn’t the half anyone expected.

The Bills had arguably the top defense in the AFC under ex-coordinator Jim Schwartz in 2014, but Ryan dismissed Schwartz Rex Ryan (vertical) after his hiring because of their differing philosophies. Given Ryan’s reputation as a defensive guru, it wasn’t foolish to think the Bills’ defense would continue to thrive – perhaps even improve – with him running it. Instead, the unit took a tremendous step backward under Ryan and coordinator Dennis Thurman, going from top five in points, yards, sacks, and takeaways in 2014 to middle of the pack in most of those categories last season. The starkest decline was in sacks, in which the Bills stunningly reversed course from No. 1 in the league two years ago to second-last with Ryan and Thurman at the controls.

On the other hand, offensive coordinator Greg Roman presided over an attack that accomplished Ryan’s ground-and-pound goal en route to first-place rankings in both rushing yards and per-carry average. Two running backs, LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor – all offseason pickups a year ago – were the main catalysts behind the Bills’ rushing success.

Unfortunately for the Bills, McCoy’s status for next season isn’t assured because of a pending investigation against him. Philadelphia District Attorney R. Seth Williams is considering whether to charge the four-time Pro Bowler for his alleged role in a nightclub brawl with off-duty police officers on Feb. 7. Even if Williams opts against charges and McCoy gets off scot-free from a legal standpoint, that doesn’t mean he’ll dodge a suspension from the league.

Before McCoy found himself in trouble, the biggest stories of the Bills’ young offseason centered on their front office and coaching staff. Shortly after the Bills’ season ended, general manager Doug Whaley got a contract extension through 2019 – the same year Ryan’s deal expires.

Ryan, meanwhile, hired his brother Rob Ryan in a prominent role: assistant head coach/defense. Rob Ryan was previously the defensive coordinator for the Saints, who fired him last November after he oversaw a unit that was allowing 424.7 yards per game at the time of his dismissal. Had the Saints kept up that pace, it would’ve been the second-worst all-time total for a full season. Nevertheless, Rex Ryan called his brother “a great football coach” earlier this month, and the two of them will team with Thurman as they attempt to turn around an underachieving defense next season.

Key Free Agents:

The Bills aren’t loaded with free agents who are primed to land major paydays in the coming weeks, but their top two unsigned players – left tackle Cordy Glenn and left guard Richie Incognito – were among the league’s premier offensive linemen last season. Glenn and Incognito comprised one of the best tackle-guard duos in the league, with both starting all 16 games and thriving in the process. Glenn was Pro Football Focus’ 10th-ranked tackle last season (subscription required), while Incognito placed second overall among guards.

"<strongGiven that Glenn’s much younger than Incognito (26 versus 32) and plays a position of higher priority, he’ll undoubtedly be the more expensive of the pair. Since the Bills used a second-round pick on Glenn in 2012, the former Georgia Bulldog has been a durable stalwart, appearing in 61 of a possible 64 games (all starts) and earning positive grades from PFF in each of his four seasons. Now, as one of the standouts in a market of pending free agent tackles that also features the likes of Russell Okung (Seahawks), Kelvin Beachum (Steelers) and Donald Penn (Raiders), Glenn is in position to collect an appreciable raise.

Glenn wouldn’t be out of his depth to push for a deal in the neighborhood of the one the Colts’ Anthony Castonzo netted last summer. At the time, Castonzo was similar to Glenn as a four-year veteran with 60-plus starts who was entering his age-27 season. Castonzo got $43.6MM ($18MM guaranteed) over four years, and now ranks 10th among left tackles in maximum value, fourth in annual worth ($10.95MM) and 11th in guarantees. The Colts still had control over Castonzo at the time, though, whereas Glenn is potentially weeks away from having teams engage in a bidding war for his services. Thus, Glenn has a strong opportunity to surpass Castonzo’s contract.

If the Bills and Glenn aren’t able to find common ground on an accord sometime this month, the club will have the option of placing the franchise tag on him by the March 1 deadline to prevent him from hitting the open market March 9. PFR’s Luke Adams identified Glenn as a viable candidate for the tag last week. If the Bills go that route, it’ll cost them just under $14MM next season. Locking up Glenn long term after tagging him would enable the Bills to lower that number, of course.

The Bills bought low on Incognito last season, inking him to a deal that included less than $1MM in base salary, after he missed most of 2013 and all of 2014 because of his role in a bullying scandal with the Dolphins. Considering his performance last season, the Bills won’t be nearly that lucky this year. However, Incognito will stay a Bill if he has his druthers.

“My goal is to come back and play in Buffalo. I love it there,” he said in January.

There’s obviously mutual admiration between Incognito and the Bills. Whaley opined in December that Incognito deserved to be in the running for Comeback Player of the Year – an award that ended up going the Chiefs’ Eric Berry (rightly so) – and stated last month that keeping both Incognito and Glenn would be “a major point of emphasis” (Twitter link via Joe Buscgalia of WKBW). The two sides remain without an agreement, though, and Incognito certainly isn’t in the running for the franchise tag. That means the Bills can either re-up him within the next couple weeks or risk watching him head elsewhere when free agency opens.

On paper, Incognito shouldn’t be that tough to re-sign. His age and past off-field issues don’t exactly make him ripe for a lengthy contract, and a fair dollar amount would put him in the range of $3MM to $4MM per year. Only nine left guards presently average more than $4MM annually. The majority of those players are still in their 20s. Those who aren’t signed their deals before they turned 30.

Linebacker Nigel Bradham is the Bills’ only other full-time starter who is scheduled for free agency. He didn’t come close to making the impact Glenn and Incognito did last season, however, as Bradham joined many of his cohorts in going backward under Ryan and Thurman. Despite that, the Bills and Bradham want to extend their four-year relationship, according to Tyler Dunne of The Buffalo News. Dunne reported Friday (via Twitter) that Bradham is willing to take a “prove-it” contract to remain in Buffalo. If the 26-year-old is truly open to that, it would make sense for the Bills to bring him back, have one fewer immediate need to address this offseason, and hope he adapts better to their defense in 2016.

Similarly, the Bills would do well to retain receiver Percy Harvin on a low-risk deal. They can’t count on him to fill a significant role, though, given his career-long injury issues. Harvin was a competent piece of the Bills’ offense early last season, catching 19 passes on 30 targets over the first five weeks, but the former Viking, Seahawk and Jet missed the remainder of the campaign with hip and knee ailments. Whaley revealed last month that the Bills hope to re-sign the 27-year-old.

The Bills have three restricted free agent agents who racked up sizable playing time last season in defensive lineman Corbin Bryant, safety Bacarri Rambo and receiver Chris Hogan. The trio combined for 22 starts (10 for Bryant, eight for Rambo, four for Hogan) and accrued well over 600 snaps apiece.

Buffalo is expected to tender a one-year offer to Bryant, per Dunne (Twitter link). All has been quiet on the Rambo and Hogan fronts thus far, meanwhile, but both are candidates to receive tenders. Rambo led Bills defenders with three forced fumbles last season. Hogan was fourth on the Bills in catches (36), aerial yards (450) and receiving touchdowns (two). He also played 39 percent of their special teams snaps.

Possible Cap Casualties:

Thanks to a combination of his subpar output last season and his exorbitant cap number ($19.9MM), defensive end Mario Williams faces long odds of ever putting on a Bills uniform again."<strong

Williams was a nonentity under Ryan and Thurman – his sack total plummeted from 14.5 to five, and he was largely invisible otherwise – and the 31-year-old was unafraid to voice his disenchantment with their scheme throughout the season. Going forward, the 10-year veteran is scheduled to easily pace the Bills in 2016 cap hit, but they’ll recoup most of that ($12.9MM, to be exact) if they release him. Williams, who signed with the Bills for $96MM in 2012, has missed only one game over the last four seasons and piled up 43 sacks.

The Bills might also move on from defensive back Leodis McKelvin, which would save them $3.9MM. It’s worth mentioning that the longtime cornerback told Dunne in December that he’d be open to shifting to safety and coming back at a lesser cap charge than his current $4.9MM. Those actions could help McKelvin return to Western New York for a ninth season.

Buffalo would save healthy amounts by cutting defensive lineman Kyle Williams ($5MM), safety Corey Graham ($3.38MM) and kicker Dan Carpenter ($1.76MM). That’s an improbable outcome in the cases of Williams and Graham, however, as both are starters and valuable contributors.

Carpenter disappointed last season after establishing himself as a high-end kicker in previous years. The 30-year-old was 18th out of 32 qualifiers in field goal accuracy (85.2 percent) and 31st in extra point success rate (85 percent). He also doesn’t handle kickoffs, forcing the Bills to use a roster spot on specialist Jordan Gay. With all of that considered, Carpenter’s hold on a roster spot looks tenuous.

The departures of backup offensive lineman Kraig Urbik ($1.78MM) and reserve running back Anthony Dixon ($1.15MM) look like good bets. Receiver Marquise Goodwin ($710K) and safety Duke Williams ($675K) aren’t safe either. Defensive end Jarius Wynn, who missed all of last season with a knee injury, could also be on the outs. Pink slipping him would net the Bills an extra $1MM.

Positions Of Need:

Should either or both of the Cordy Glenn–Richie Incognito duo walk, the Bills will be tasked with replacing at least one of their top two offensive linemen. As mentioned earlier, Russell Okung, Kelvin Beachum, and Donald Penn join Glenn as the cream-of-the-crop unsigned left tackles.

If the Bills are unable to meet Glenn’s demands, it’s hard to envision them ponying up for Okung, who is seeking a large payday despite durability concerns. The six-year veteran has missed 25 of a possible 96 contests and has never played a 16-game regular season. Moreover, he’s currently on the mend from recent shoulder surgery.

Beachum also hasn’t been the picture of health – the 26-year-old tore his ACL last season and missed 10 games. But, as Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com wrote last week, the highly talented Steelers tackle will have no shortage of suitors on the open market.

Penn, on the other hand, has been the quintessence of dependability, having missed zero games in his nine-year career. He has also started 16 games in eight straight seasons. Both Penn’s reliability and performance (he was PFF’s No. 11 tackle last season, one spot behind Glenn) are likely to lead him to a raise over the $4.8MM per year he made on his prior deal. Penn’s age (33 in April) should prevent him from finding anything long term, though.

Given how he fared last season and the fact that he won’t require a lengthy commitment, it’ll be puzzling if the Bills part with Incognito. Pending free agents like Kelechi Osemele (Ravens), Jeff Allen (Chiefs), Alex Boone (49ers) and Brandon Brooks (Texans) are all younger than Incognito and will get longer contracts as a result, but none are clearly superior players to Incognito at this juncture. Boone does have a notable connection to the Bills’ coaching staff – he played four years in Roman’s offense with the 49ers from 2011-14.

Evan Mathis (Broncos), Ramon Foster (Steelers) and Chris Chester (Falcons), like Incognito, are 30-somethings who are capable short-term Band-Aids. Interestingly, Whaley was a member of Pittsburgh’s front office when the club drafted Foster in 2009. Foster, who has since started 87 games, ranked as PFF’s 16th-best guard last season.

Unfortunately for the Bills, they also have issues on the right side of their O-line. Tackle Seantrel Henderson has started all 26 of his appearances since the Bills took him in the seventh round of the 2014 draft, but he hasn’t made enough progress to automatically keep his job for a third season. If the Bills venture into free agency for someone better, Joe Barksdale – who has made 45 starts over the last three years – jumps out as an enticing option who shouldn’t cost a bank-breaking amount. The ex-Ram took a one-year, low-money deal in San Diego last offseason and proceeded to play the second-most snaps in the league among tackles (1,150). His play earned him a No. 21 overall ranking among 77 qualifying OTs from PFF.

In the event the Bills address their O-line early in the draft, tackles Jack Conklin (Michigan State), Taylor Decker (Ohio State) and Jerald Hawkins (LSU) are possibilities at No. 19. Kansas State guard Cody Whitehair could also draw their interest.

Elsewhere on offense, the Bills aren’t sure what they have at quarterback, the sport’s paramount position. After spending the first four years of his career as a backup in Baltimore, Tyrod Taylor signed on the cheap with the Bills last winter in hopes of winning their starting job. Taylor did just that over the summer, beating out two career mediocrities in Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel, and then played better than anyone could have realistically expected during the season. As a passer, Taylor completed 63.7 percent of his throws, finished fifth in yards per attempt (7.99), seventh in rating (99.4) and added 20 touchdowns against just six interceptions. He complemented his solid passing skills with world-class mobility, chipping in 568 rushing yards (second to Cam Newton among QBs) and four more TDs.

While it was a successful year for Taylor, the Bills may not be sold on him as a franchise guy quite yet. They won’t find anyone better on the free agent market, but both Whaley and Ryan have left the door ajar with respect to drafting a QB this year. The Bills were one of the teams that showed the most interest throughout last season in North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz, whom they scouted extensively, NDSU quarterbacks coach Randy Hedberg told Dunne. Wentz probably won’t be available when the Bills are on the clock at No. 19, but Whaley hasn’t been shy about trading up in the past and could do it again if Wentz is still on the board within a few selections of Buffalo.

The Bills are also fans of Stanford’s Kevin Hogan, according to Tony Pauline of DraftInsider.Net. Hogan is a likely mid-round pick, so it’s doubtful he’d be a threat to Taylor next season even if the Bills drafted him. It’s possible Hogan would be able to push Manuel off the roster and serve as the No. 2 behind Taylor, though Whaley and Ryan both like Manuel. Further, releasing the former first-rounder would save the Bills nothing and leave them with nearly $2.83MM in dead money in 2016.

Regardless of who’s under center for the Bills next season, the organization seems intent on giving him more to work with at receiver. With Whaley suggesting last month that Robert Woods is losing his grip on the No. 2 spot, the Bills don’t have anyone of much consequence behind Sammy Watkins. Not surprisingly, then, they’ll “seriously look into” drafting a wideout, according to Whaley (Twitter link via Buscaglia).

Player personnel director Jim Monos expressed further dissatisfaction with the team’s receiving corps, Watkins excluded, telling WGR 550, “We need to get somebody opposite of Sammy to be a real threat to that defense. I think that’s a big key for our offense, to take one more step.”

If the Bills are bold enough to draft another first-round receiver – keep in mind that, because they traded up for Watkins in 2014, they essentially used two No. 1s on him – a few names to watch include Laquon Treadwell of Ole Miss and the Ohio State tandem of Michael Thomas and Braxton Miller.

In free agency, it’s unrealistic to think Buffalo will reel in a big fish like Marvin Jones, who’s reportedly seeking $7MM annually, or fellow Bengal Mohamed Sanu (he could get $5MM per year). Not many would classify Seahawks free agent-to-be Jermaine Kearse as a “real threat,” to use Monos’ phrase, though the 26-year-old could pique the Bills’ interest if the cost is reasonable. Earlier this winter, Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap forecast a deal worth $3.25MM to $3.75MM per year for Kearse (Twitter link). The 6-foot-1, 209-pounder only caught two more balls than Woods last season, but he did it on 13 fewer targets, averaged 14.0 yards per reception to Woods’ 11.7 and added five TDs to Woods’ three.

The Bills entered last offseason in the catbird seat defensively, which isn’t the case 12 months later. The team’s front seven still features an enviable trio of linemen in Marcell Dareus, Jerry Hughes and Kyle Williams, but imposing pass rushers are lacking aside from Hughes and the linebacking corps leaves much to be desired.

Bradham and Preston Brown markedly dropped off from 2014, leaving 10-year veteran Manny Lawson as the Bills’ top linebacker last season. Lawson will once again be a relied-on member of the Bills’ defense in 2016, and the same is probably true in regards to Brown. The Bills will need aid at linebacker from outside the organization, though, and if they go shopping for it in free agency, the Jets’ Demario Davis is a clear fit.

Davis played the first three seasons of his career under Ryan, saying in 2014, “I wouldn’t want to play for any other head coach. He’s a great defensive mind.”

Ryan leaned heavily on Davis, who played 95 percent of the Jets’ defensive snaps in 2013 and 99 percent in 2014. Davis looked lost last season without Ryan, meaning he isn’t hitting the the market with the momentum of a strong contract year. That could be fortuitous timing for the Bills, who lack cap room, need linebackers, and must find players who can comprehend Ryan’s defense.

Ex-Jet Quinton Coples is another free agent linebacker whose best years came under Ryan. The 2012 first-rounder combined for 16.5 sacks in Ryan’s scheme during the first three years of his career and played 1,500-plus snaps at LB in their last two seasons together. Coples, like Davis, fell off last season in Ryan’s absence, so the Jets waived him in November. Two teams placed claims on the 25-year-old. One was the Dolphins, who ultimately got him. The other? Ryan’s Bills. The fact that the Bills lost out on Coples upset Ryan, per Mike Rodak of ESPN.com (Twitter link).

“I wanted him,” Ryan said.

Coples was a non-factor in Miami, which released him earlier this month. He’s now free to sign anywhere, and the Bills are ostensibly a more logical fit for him than any other team. As an edge-rushing linebacker with a knowledge of Ryan’s defense, Coples is an alluring buy-low possibility for cap-strapped Buffalo.

The Bills could also buy high at LB in the form of a first-round pick. In his latest mock draft, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller has the club selecting Ohio State’s Darron Lee in the opening round. Depending on whether they’re still available, any of Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith, Alabama’s Reggie Ragland and Georgia’s Leonard Floyd might be on the Bills’ radar. They could also address their D-line instead and choose from the likes of Robert Nkemdiche (Ole Miss), Sheldon Rankins (Louisville), A’Shawn Robinson (Alabama) and Emmanuel Ogbah (Oklahoma State), among others.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

The Bills have decisions to make this offseason on both of their quarterbacks. One of those decisions, whether to exercise or decline EJ Manuel‘s fifth-year option for 2017, will be easy. They’ll decline it, which means Manuel could be entering his final year with the team that drafted him. Manuel, whom the Bills took 16th overall in 2013, has appeared in 22 games, logged 16 starts and tossed 19 TDs against 15 INTs. He has been relegated to the bench since early 2014 as the backup, first to Kyle Orton and now to Taylor.

Tyrod Taylor (vertical)Whether to take a shot at extending Tyrod Taylor or simply let him play out his contract year is a much more difficult call for the Bills’ front office. Taylor’s pedigree hardly screams “franchise QB” — he’s undersized (6-1, 205 pounds), didn’t have a lights-out college career as a passer, went in the sixth round, and has spent the vast majority of his pro tenure as a backup.

That doesn’t mean Taylor is incapable of serving as an adept starter for the long haul, but the Bills can’t afford to make another mistake under center by once again investing heavily in someone who isn’t the answer. They got into trouble a few years ago when they prematurely extended Ryan Fitzpatrick based on a small sample size of encouraging play, and that was wedged between two failed first-round picks (J.P. Losman and Manuel). With that in mind, they’re unlikely to place their hand on the hot stove again, so to speak.

Although it’ll cost the Bills more if they take a better-safe-than-sorry approach and Taylor builds on last season, that would be a good problem for a franchise that has been hopeless at QB since the mid-1990s.

While the Bills aren’t yet sure of what they have in Taylor, they should know by now that cornerback Stephon Gilmore is worth a mega-extension. The 2012 first-rounder is going into his final season under team control and is coming off a year in which he tied a career high with three interceptions, ranked as a top-10 corner by PFF’s standards, and formed a top-notch CB twosome with rookie Ronald Darby.

Gilmore is scheduled to rake in over $11MM in 2016, his fifth-year option season. If he were to ask for that long term, it would be a lofty request from a player who has missed 11 games over the last three years. Then again, the Eagles’ Byron Maxwell has one of the richest contracts in the league for a corner – fourth in total value ($63MM), fifth in yearly worth ($10.5MM) and third in guarantees ($25MM) – and he got it last winter despite appearing in just 47 games in four seasons. At the time, Maxwell was a 27-year-old who had played second fiddle to Richard Sherman in Seattle. Conversely, Gilmore – who will turn 26 in September – has been the alpha dog in pass defenses that have mostly stifled enemy QBs (three straight top-10 finishes in both yards per attempt against and passer rating allowed). Add all of that up, and Gilmore has a case for Maxwell money – especially with the cap having risen $12MM during the last year.

Overall Outlook:

The Bills have little cap room to work with and obvious problems to address on both sides of the ball, so Whaley will have to pull a magic trick of sorts in order to build a playoff-caliber roster this offseason. Best-case scenario for Buffalo: Whaley will somehow re-sign both Glenn and Incognito, hit home runs with value pickups in free agency, and add multiple draft prospects who pay immediate dividends.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 2/14/16 – 2/21/16

February 21st, 2016 at 2:44pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original analysis and content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Offseason Outlook: Indianapolis Colts

February 20th, 2016 at 9:50pm CST by Luke Adams

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Andrew Luck, QB: $16,155,000
  2. T.Y. Hilton, WR: $11,000,000
  3. Anthony Castonzo, T: $9,800,000
  4. Vontae Davis, CB: $8,375,000
  5. Andre Johnson, WR: $7,500,000
  6. Trent Cole, OLB: $7,125,000
  7. Gosder Cherilus, T: $5,800,000 (dead money)
  8. D’Qwell Jackson, ILB: $5,750,000
  9. Arthur Jones, DE: $5,600,000
  10. Robert Mathis, OLB: $5,000,000
  11. Kendall Langford, DE: $4,250,000
  12. Erik Walden, OLB: $4,250,000
  13. Frank Gore, RB: $4,000,000
  14. Joe Reitz, G: $3,250,000
  15. Darius Butler, CB: $3,000,000

Notable coaching/front office moves:

Draft:

  • No. 18 overall pick
  • Owe sixth-round pick to Raiders in deal for LB Sio Moore.

Other:

Overview:

After making it to the AFC Championship at the end of the 2014 season, the Colts entered 2015 as a trendy pick to represent the conference in Super Bowl 50. However, Indianapolis’ veteran free agents, such as Andre Johnson, Trent Cole, and Todd Herremans, failed to have the impact the team had hoped for, and franchise quarterback Andrew Luck battled injuries for nearly the entire season, appearing in only seven games.Chuck Pagano

The AFC South was weak enough that the Colts remained in contention all year, but the club ultimately lost out to the Texans, finishing with an 8-8 record. For a franchise with Super Bowl aspirations, it was a hugely disappointing result, and head coach Chuck Pagano was widely considered a goner, with an outside possibility that GM Ryan Grigson would follow him out the door.

Instead, Colts owner Jim Irsay announced at season’s end that he intended to move forward with Pagano and Grigson, extending the contracts of both men. Pagano, whose contract had been set to expire, received a new four-year deal, while Grigson’s pact was extended by three years so that it runs through 2019, like Pagano’s.

Despite maintaining continuity at head coach, the Colts made several changes to Pagano’s staff in recent weeks, bringing in Georgia offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to coach the quarterbacks, former Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin to lead the offensive line, and Ravens linebackers coach Ted Monachino to run the defense. The message was clear: Pagano wouldn’t lose his job as a result of the Colts’ 2015 struggles, but an overhaul of the staff was required, and going forward, similar results won’t be acceptable.

For the Colts to turn things around and return to contention in 2016, it starts with Grigson, who has made some questionable free agent signings and draft choices since taking over as the club’s GM. After last year’s foray into veteran free agency backfired, the club figures to be a little more cautious on the open market this time around, but the real key to success will be a higher success rate on draft picks, since Indianapolis needs to add some talented, young players to its core.

Key Free Agents:

The two top tight ends on the Colts’ depth chart are eligible for free agency this winter, with both Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen just a few weeks away from hitting the market. Of the two, Fleener is clearly in line for the bigger deal — not only is he the more productive pass catcher, but Pro Football Focus graded him as a significantly better blocker than Allen in 2015, even though Allen has historically been solid in that regard.

While the Colts would probably like to lock up Fleener, they won’t want to give him the sort of deal that young tight ends like Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz have signed so far this offseason. Both Kelce and Ertz signed contracts worth at least $8.5MM annually, placing them among the top five highest-paid tight ends in the NFL. But those players are coming off seasons in which they caught 70+ balls for 850+ yards. Fleener has never reached either of those benchmarks, which should make him a little more affordable. A deal in the neighborhood of $7.5MM per year might make sense, and it will be interesting to see if Indianapolis is willing to invest at that price.

Jerrell FreemanWhile Allen may not be as crucial to the Colts’ offensive production as Fleener is, he’s also not a lock to head elsewhere. Allen and free agent linebacker Jerrell Freeman recently turned to Rosenhaus Sports for representation, which could be a good sign for Indianapolis, since Drew Rosenhaus has a history of getting deals done with the club.

Locking up Freeman would be big for the Colts’ defense — the 29-year-old is coming off a season in which he ranked fourth overall among 97 linebackers, including first against the run, according to PFF’s grades. Although that sort of performance as a run defender looks like something of an anomaly for Freeman, he has always been solid in coverage. If he can continue to play well against the run, it’s even more essential that the Colts keep him under contract. Inside linebackers typically aren’t huge earners, but Freeman could be in line for some nice offers if he reaches the open market, so if the Colts want to keep him, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to try to get something done before March 9th.

Two of the league’s oldest players will see their contracts with the Colts expire next month, but it sounds as if both veterans want to continue their careers in Indianapolis. There’s mutual interest between the Colts and kicker Adam Vinatieri in a new deal, and it shouldn’t be hard for the two sides to figure something out.

Vinatieri’s previous contract averaged just $2.5MM per year, which is a very team-friendly price for a kicker who has been so reliable for so long. In 2015, Vinatieri made his final 25 field goal attempts, and if he sticks with the Colts for a couple more seasons, he has a chance to make a run at the NFL’s all-time scoring record — he currently sits third, less than 300 points behind Morten Anderson, and less than 200 from Gary Anderson.

Meanwhile, longtime signal-caller Matt Hasselbeck took a beating on the field in relief of Luck in 2015, but it didn’t discourage him from wanting to continue his career into his early 40s. Hasselbeck announced this week that he’d like to play in 2016, and the Colts seem like a good fit for him going forward.

While the team is currently carrying Josh Freeman and Stephen Morris on its roster, it’s not clear if either of those QBs will be ready to step in as the No. 2 behind Luck, so Hasselbeck would provide some veteran stability. He didn’t play badly when forced into action this past season, leading Indianapolis to a 5-3 record in his starts. If Hasselbeck re-signs with the Colts, the team probably doesn’t need to bring back Charlie Whitehurst, who is also a free agent.

Elsewhere in the offensive backfield, Ahmad Bradshaw and Boom Herron (restricted) are free agents, though it would be a bit surprising if the Colts bring both players back. Having struggled to find consistent production at the running back spot during Luck’s time with the team, it might make sense for the team to use a mid-round pick on a back to pair with Frank Gore, re-signing Herron for primarily special teams work. If the club doesn’t want to use a pick on the position this year, perhaps Bradshaw returns for one more season, but the Colts need to start getting younger here at some point.

Finally, the backfield on the other side of the ball is also a cause for concern this winter, with two starters – cornerback Greg Toler and safety Dwight Lowery – facing unrestricted free agency. If the Colts just bring back one of those two players, which I expect, they’ll almost certainly prioritize Lowery, whose first season in Indianapolis (76 tackles, four interceptions) was impressive. Lowery isn’t a star, but penciling him in at free safety and counting on him to be solid allows the club to focus on other areas. Toler, on the other hand, gets beaten by wideouts too frequently to be relied upon — if the Colts keep him around, it should be as a depth piece, not as a starter.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Colts’ list of potential cap casualties this offseason is practically a who’s-who of the team’s most noteworthy March signings over the last two years. The most obvious candidates on the list are wide receiver Andre Johnson and outside linebacker Trent Cole, who joined the team a year ago.Andre Johnson

Having played with 13 different starting quarterbacks during his 12 years in Houston, Johnson was viewed as an ideal match for Andrew Luck, but the veteran wideout caught only 41 passes for 503 yards in 2015, his worst ever full-season totals. Unless the Colts are banking on a significant bounce-back season from Johnson, it probably makes sense to cut him before his $2.5MM roster bonus is due on March 13th, since the team could trim his cap charge from $7.5MM to just $2.5MM. Because that dead money comes in the form of a partially guaranteed 2016 base salary, Indianapolis wouldn’t make that move until the start of the new league year.

Like Johnson, Cole was expected to be somewhat rejuvenated by joining a Super Bowl contender. Instead, he appeared in fewer than half of the Colts’ defensive snaps, matching a career low with just three sacks. Cole has just one year remaining on his contract, and Indianapolis could create $6.125MM in cap savings by releasing him, so that looks like the logical move.

While 2015’s free agent class perhaps features the most obvious release candidates, there are a handful of 2014 signees in danger of losing their roster spots in Indianapolis as well. Defensive lineman Arthur Jones has been unable to stay healthy since inking a five-year, $33MM pact with the Colts, a deal which no longer includes any guaranteed base salary. Indianapolis would only reduce Jones’ 2016 cap hit from $5.6MM to $3.3MM by cutting him, so if the team is holding out hope that he can make an impact, he may survive one more season.

Inside linebacker D’Qwell Jackson and outside linebacker Erik Walden, on the other hand, have both stayed healthy, but have less dead money remaining on their deals. Jackson and Walden probably aren’t difference-making defenders going forward, and the Colts could clear more than $9MM in 2016 cap room by cutting both of them, so those are moves that should be considered if the team has potential replacements in mind.

Finally, the cap savings for cutting two more linebackers, Bjoern Werner and Sio Moore, wouldn’t be huge (in the ballpark of $1.5MM apiece), but the Colts could consider parting ways with both players this offseason. Werner has never been the player Indianapolis hoped he would be after selecting him in the first round of the 2013 draft, while Moore reportedly fell out of favor in Oakland partially due to questions about his attitude, and was arrested last month.

Positions Of Need:

As long as Andrew Luck enters the 2016 season healthy, the Colts have no uncertainty at the quarterback position, but the team faces questions at virtually every other offensive position this offseason. Will a 33-year-old Frank Gore be capable of continuing to lead the Colts’ rushing attack? If Andre Johnson isn’t back, will the team need to add another veteran wideout to complement T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Phillip Dorsett? Will Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen be re-signed, or will the Colts need to pursue tight end help?

Still, the Colts’ top priority on offense this offseason should be on the offensive line, which will need to do a better job in 2016 of keeping Luck upright and creating holes for Gore and the rest of the club’s ball-carriers. Anthony Castonzo should enter the season as the team’s left tackle, and Jack Mewhort and Joe Reitz showed enough last season that they can probably be counted on to start as well, whether at guard or at right tackle.

That still leaves two openings on the offensive line, and while there are a few in-house options the Colts could turn to, the team should make every effort to upgrade those spots. There will be no shortage of free agent options, including a handful that the team’s coaching staff is familiar with — offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski coached tackle Mitchell Schwartz and center Alex Mack, who is likely to opt out, in Cleveland during his brief stint as the Browns’ head coach, and new OL coach Joe Philbin had guard Richie Incognito on his roster in Miami, though that relationship became rocky.

With the flexibility to move Retiz and/or Mewhort around a little, if needed, the Colts could target centers, guards, or tackles this winter, opening up a ton of options for the team as it tries to determine the best possible fits on its line. Centers Manny Ramirez, Ben Jones, and Stefen Wisniewski, guards Brandon Brooks, Evan Mathis, and Geoff Schwartz, and tackles Jake Long, Andre Smith, and Joe Barksdale are among the other veteran free agents the Colts could kick the tires on. Targeting offensive linemen in the draft is also a viable strategy. In their most recent mock drafts, ESPN’s Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have the Colts using their 18th overall pick on Alabama center Ryan Kelly and Ohio State tackle Taylor Decker, respectively.

Using that first-round pick to fortify Indianapolis’ offensive line is a defensible approach, but it might make more sense for Ryan Grigson and the Colts to use that selection – along with a few other draft picks – to address the defense, where their are several holes to be filled.

Along the defensive front, the Colts have some solid pieces in the mix, with Henry Anderson, Kendall Langford, and Zach Kerr expected to be part of the interior defensive line rotation. If Arthur Jones is retained, the Colts may not prioritize the defensive line as one of their top positions of need, but the team could use a more reliable option in the middle. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell recently suggested targeting Jets free agent Damon Harrison, and while he may be a little too expensive for the Colts’ liking, the team probably shouldn’t rely on David Parry as its primary nose tackle going forward, and a player like Harrison would certainly be a nice fit.

Assuming Jerrell Freeman can be re-signed, the Colts’ real area of concern in the front seven is on the outside, where the team needs to do a much better job of addressing the pass rush. New defensive coordinator Ted Monachino called improving the pass rush “priority No. 1” for the Colts this offseason, expressing the desire for an “attacking” defensive unit that does a better job of getting after the quarterback — Indianapolis ranked 22nd in 2015 with 35 sacks, and nearly half of those came during a hot streak against primarily non-playoff teams in the season’s final four weeks.

Robert Mathis, who tied for the club lead with seven sacks last season, will be back, but he’ll turn 35 next week, and he needs some help. Outside of Von Miller, who won’t reach the open market, the free agent options are limited, unless the Colts want to roll the dice on an off-field risk (Aldon Smith, Junior Galette) or another 30-something veteran (Tamba Hali, Calvin Pace). Adding a younger player to the mix with an eye toward fixing the problem long-term probably makes more sense, which is why the Colts figure to use an early-round pick on a pass rusher. In a recent mock draft, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report suggested Clemson edge defender Shaq Lawson for Indianapolis.

In the secondary, safeties Mike Adams and Dwight Lowery – if he’s re-signed – are a respectable duo, but the Colts will need to address the cornerback position. While Darius Butler figures to enter the season as the slot corner and Vontae Davis is a reliable option on the outside, that leaves an opening across from Davis, where the Colts could consider a veteran.

This year’s free agent market for cornerbacks features a handful of appealing options who could reach the open market, including Sean Smith, Trumaine Johnson, Janoris Jenkins, and Prince Amukamara. If the Colts aim a little lower, a couple coaching connections are worth keeping in mind — Monachino saw Ravens free agent Shareece Wright first-hand last year, while defensive backs coach Greg Williams worked with Chargers free agent Patrick Robinson in San Diego.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

The long-term extensions for Anthony Castonzo and T.Y. Hilton each features sizable roster bonuses early in the new league year, and both players’ 2016 salaries will become guaranteed at that point as well. If the Colts want to free up a little extra cap room, the team could opt to restructure one or both of those deals, converting the roster bonuses and/or some salary into signing bonuses, prorating that cap hit over several years.

Andrew LuckThat’s a minor contract issue though compared to the big one looming over the Colts this offseason: the Andrew Luck extension. There’s no real drama here when it comes to whether or not it will get done — it will. The only drama will involve the total value of the extension, since it could very well be a record-breaker.

Colts owner Jim Irsay recently suggested Luck’s new deal will be “eye-popping,” adding that it’ll be worth nine figures, and well over $20MM per year. Those numbers aren’t particularly staggering, since we’ve seen deals exceed $120MM in total value, and $22MM in per-year salary. Will Luck be able to blow away those benchmarks, perhaps reaching $150MM in total value or $25MM in annual salary? Maybe, but I’d be more confident in his chances if he were coming off the MVP-type season everyone was expecting in 2015.

Obviously, Luck’s injury-plagued ’15 campaign won’t force him to accept a discount from the Colts, but his résumé to date still doesn’t include the kind of jaw-dropping single season that would clearly put him in line to become the league’s highest-paid quarterback. The Colts and Luck’s camp still recognize his value, and know that he definitely has the potential to become the NFL’s No. 1 QB within the next couple years, but we’ll have to wait to see how much the Colts are willing to pay for that potential.

I think Luck will ultimately exceed Aaron Rodgers‘ $22MM annual salary, but perhaps not by as significant a margin as I might have anticipated a year ago. No matter how the negotiations go, it will be one of the most fascinating storylines to watch this offseason.

Overall Outlook:

Between having Luck to lead their offense and playing in a weak AFC South division, the Colts have managed to mask many of their flaws in recent years, but their performance in 2015 – with and without their franchise quarterback – showed that there’s still plenty of work to be done on this roster. It’s possible that the return of a healthy Luck will allow the Colts to take back the AFC South in 2016. However, the division-champion Texans are a quarterback away from becoming very dangerous, and the Jaguars and Titans could be on the rise now that they’ve found their long-term answers at the QB position, so the Colts can’t take anything for granted going forward.

With new contract extensions in hand, GM Ryan Grigson and head coach Chuck Pagano will be eager to make up for 2015’s mistakes this year, and they have a daunting to-do list on tap: find a pass rush, fortify the offensive line, solidify the secondary, and make sure Luck has plenty of weapons at his disposal. If the Colts can check off a few of those boxes this offseason, they’ll be well on their way to reclaiming their status as the team to beat in the AFC South.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Lions

February 19th, 2016 at 9:58pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Calvin Johnson, WR: $24,008,000
  2. Matthew Stafford, QB: $22,500,000
  3. Riley Reiff, T: $8,070,000
  4. DeAndre Levy, OLB: $7,650,000
  5. Glover Quin, S: $7,577,500
  6. Stephen Tulloch, ILB: $7,300,000
  7. Golden Tate, WR: $7,101,250
  8. Ezekiel Ansah, DE: $5,916,433
  9. Brandon Pettigrew, TE: $4,650,000
  10. Joique Bell, RB: $3,500,000
  11. Eric Ebron, TE: $3,340,676
  12. Matt Prater, K: $3,175,000
  13. Laken Tomlinson, G: $1,943,238
  14. Larry Warford, G: $1,821,250
  15. Darius Slay, CB: $1,682,960

Notable coaching/front office moves:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

The Lions went into last season hoping to build on their 11-win 2014 campaign, but history was overwhelmingly against them from the start. The franchise entered 2015 having never amassed consecutive seasons of double-digit victories since its inception as the Portsmouth Spartans in 1930. That ignominious streak will live on for at least a bit longer, as the Lions endured the quintessential tale of two seasons en route to a 7-9 finish.

Thanks to an 0-5 start, the Lions were all but out of playoff contention by early October and ultimately reached their bye week with an NFL-worst 1-7 mark. Owner Martha Ford reacted by firing president Tom Lewand and general manager Martin Mayhew, both of whom had held their posts since 2008. Rod Wood, a Ford family confidant, took over for Lewand, admitting at the time that he “would probably not be directly involved in personnel decisions” (link via Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press). The GM role went to player personnel director Sheldon White, though only on an interim basis, as Wood and consultant Ernie Accorsi – previously a successful executive in Baltimore, Cleveland and New York – considered full-time options.

In the wake of both the Lions’ front office shakeup and the late-October firing of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, whom they replaced with quarterbacks coach Jim Bob Cooter, the team looked more like its 2014 self during a 6-2 second half. Quarterback Matthew Stafford, with a video game-like TD:INT ratio of 19:2 over those eight games, was the driving force behind the Lions’ end-of-season surge. The performances of Stafford and his teammates surely had a hand in saving the job of head coach Jim Caldwell, but the Lions parted with White after naming Bob Quinn their permanent GM.

Quinn came to Detroit from New England, where he had been part of arguably the league’s preeminent organization since 2000. The 39-year-old earned several promotions during his long run with the Patriots, the last of which came in 2012 when he took the reins as their director of pro scouting. Quinn’s first important act in Detroit was to retain Caldwell, a decision that came after much deliberation. He’s now focused on bettering a roster that is in danger of losing possible six-time Pro Bowl receiver Calvin Johnson to retirement at just 30 years old.

Key Free Agents:

The Lions’ notable pending unrestricted free agents all hail from a defense that was mediocre to subpar in DVOA, yardage and scoring last season. Linemen Haloti Ngata, Jason Jones and Tyrunn Walker, linebacker Tahir Whitehead and safeties Isa Abdul-Quddus and James Ihedigbo are unsigned and scheduled to hit the market on March 9.

Ngata has enjoyed the finest career of the group, having made five Pro Bowls and 147 starts since entering the league in 2006. "<strongThe 32-year-old joined the Lions last offseason after they obtained him from the Ravens for a fourth- and fifth-round draft pick, and he started in all 14 of his appearances and finished second among Lions defensive linemen in snap percentage (57.1). Ngata battled through various injuries to chip in 24 tackles, 2.5 sacks and rank as Pro Football Focus’ 39th-best interior lineman (123 qualifiers), but the site (subscription required) didn’t think much of his work against the run. That jibes with the Lions’ fall from first in rushing yardage allowed and per-carry average in 2014 to 19th in the two categories last season.

The Lions acquired Ngata with the hope that he’d help fill the void of the departed Ndamukong Suh, which he wasn’t able to do to a large enough extent. Ngata remains a solid defender, though, and wants to continue his career in the Motor City.

“I’d love to stay,” he told Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com in January. “I love what coach (Jim) Caldwell has done here. I love playing under him and (defensive line) coach Kris (Kocurek). I feel like I got in a groove at the end of the season and hopefully I can play a full season understanding the system.”

Ngata said Thursday that he’ll soon talk to the Lions to see if the two sides can work out an agreement. The ex-Oregon Duck made $8.5MM last season, which was the final year of a mega-deal he signed with the Ravens in 2011. Ngata was a dominant force then, but that’s no longer true. Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap concurs, writing last month that Ngata could have a hard time topping $4.5MM per year on his next contract.

As was the case with Ngata, the Lions’ defense leaned on Jones to serve as an important contributor last season. The eight-year veteran started in each of his 15 appearances and ranked fourth among Lions D-linemen in snap percentage (51.7) and third among all defenders in sacks (4.5). Jones earned a positive assessment from PFF, which ranked him an above-average 43rd out of 110 qualifying edge defenders and gave him decent grades as both a run defender and pass rusher.

Jones inked a three-year, $9.5MM contract with the Lions as a 27-year-old in 2013, and his production during those three years was similar to what it was in his prior stops. It stands to reason that he’ll get another short-term, reasonably priced deal as he enters his age-30 season. Considering his competent play, not to mention fellow veteran DE Darryl Tapp‘s free agent status, the Lions would be wise to bring Jones back (and Tapp, for that matter).

Walker, a former Saint, signed a one-year pact with the Lions last winter and played alongside Ngata as a D-tackle starter before a broken fibula ended his season in Week 4. The Lions weren’t afraid to make use of the 25-year-old when healthy – he played anywhere from 54 to 74 percent of their defensive snaps in each of his appearances – so they might attempt to buy low on him again in the coming weeks and hope he stays healthy next season.

Whitehead went from starting 15 games in 2014 to nine last season, but he wowed PFF enough to receive a 14th-place ranking out of 97 qualifying linebackers. Whitehead started the Lions’ last eight games, and it sounds as if the team will need to commit to giving the soon-to-be 26-year-old a No. 1 role going forward in order to keep him.

“You want to go somewhere where you’re wanted, where you’re needed and you’re going to play. So I definitely want to be a starter. I think I’ve shown that I can be a starter in this league,” he told Carlos Martinez of the Detroit Free Press after the season.

After mostly working as a special teamer and backup defender during the first four-plus years of his career, Abdul-Quddus dethroned Ihedigbo as Detroit’s starting strong safety in November and made the most of his increased playing time. Given his range, the 26-year-old was a better fit than Ihedigbo in coordinator Teryl Austin‘s defense, and PFF agrees: The site ranked Abdul-Quddus 21st and Ihedigbo 64th, respectively, out of 88 qualifying safeties. Abdul-Quddus hopes to parlay his career-best defensive season into another deal with the Lions.

“I love it here,” the 26-year-old told Kyle Meinke of MLive.com. “I love the coaching staff. I love Coach Caldwell. I love everything here man, and I’d love to come back.”

Regardless of whether it’s with the Lions or another team, Abdul-Quddus will surely end up with a more lucrative contract than the one-year, $1.5MM accord he signed in 2015. While Abdul-Quddus’ stock is rising, Ihedigbo’s is falling thanks to both his age (32) and his play last season. Not surprisingly, the Lions won’t re-sign him, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (on Twitter).

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Lions pinpointed their first cap casualty Tuesday when they cut running back Joique Bell, whose release saves them $1MM this year. Bell was a quality weapon with the Lions from 2012-14, but he was less involved in their offense last season and recorded career lows in yards per carry (3.5) and receptions (22). That dip in production, along with the respective presences of Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick, made Bell expendable.

The Lions also saved a valuable chunk of cap room ($2.3MM) by parting with defensive lineman C.J. Wilson, who made eight tackles in eight games after Detroit claimed him off waivers in November.

Linebacker Stephen Tulloch will follow Bell and Wilson out the door, as Pro Football Talk reported Thursday. Tulloch, 31, started in 66 of 67 appearances with the Lions, but his struggles against the pass helped seal his fate. Detroit will save $6MM on its cap this year when it officially releases Tulloch on March 9.

The status of tight end Brandon Pettigrew, the Lions’ first-rounder in 2009, is up in the air. Pettigrew, a prolific pass-catcher during the first half-decade of his career, has hauled in a mere 17 receptions since the Lions used a top pick on TE Eric Ebron two years ago. Dropping Pettigrew would clear $2.65MM of space for Detroit.

Positions Of Need:

The Lions remain in the dark about Johnson’s status, with Wood saying Thursday that the team is “staying in touch with him.” The club will not rush Johnson into a decision, Wood added, but it would obviously benefit the franchise to know his fate sooner than later. In fact, the Lions will need an answer by March 9. Otherwise, Johnson’s $15.95MM base salary and $24MM-plus cap number will be on their books in 2016.

If Megatron does elect to walk away, the Lions will increase their cap space by over $11MM this year. While that sounds nice, "<strongthe downside to losing Johnson is that he’s still a world-class wideout, having hauled in 88 catches for 1,200-plus yards and nine scores last season. His departure would leave a gaping hole in Detroit’s offense, and the only receiver the team could realistically acquire this offseason and expect similar production from is Alshon Jeffery. The Lions are rather familiar with Jeffery, a free agent-to-be who has been a member of the NFC North rival Bears since his career began in 2012.

The 6-foot-3, 216-pound Jeffery doesn’t quite possess Johnson’s size (6-5, 239), but he has been similarly excellent in recent seasons. In his last two 16-game campaigns (2013-14), Jeffery has combined for 174 receptions, 2,300-plus yards, and 17 touchdowns. He was also outstanding last season, albeit in just nine games, grabbing 54 passes for 807 yards and four scores. Though not much has been reported about the Bears locking up Jeffery before free agency, he and the franchise tag are likely on a collision course prior to the March 1 deadline, as PFR’s Luke Adams wrote earlier this week.

In the event Jeffery does reach the market, an all-out bidding war would undoubtedly ensue. That would enable Jeffery, who turned 26 less than a week ago, to net a contract not unlike the ones given to Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton and A.J. Green last summer. Jones, Thomas, Bryant and Hilton all signed five-year deals ranging from $65MM to $71.25MM, while Green got a four-year, $60MM contract.

The Lions obviously can’t count on Jeffery becoming a free agent, but the other pending UFA receivers are far less enticing. Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com has mentioned the Bengals’ Marvin Jones and the Seahawks’ Jermaine Kearse as prospective targets. Jones – coming off a career-best season in terms of catches (65), targets (103) and yards (816) – will seek $7MM annually, league sources told Jim Owczarski of the Cincinnati Enquirer earlier this month. Kearse also established personal highs in catches (49), targets (68) and yards (685) last season, though he won’t garner as much money as Jones. The four-year veteran’s career production should put him in line for an accord worth $3.25MM to $3.75MM annually, Fitzgerald tweeted in January.

While the Lions won’t know which direction they’ll go in at receiver until Johnson makes his intentions official, they are certain they’ll address their offensive line this offseason.

“We need to keep our quarterback protected and not on the ground,” Wood said Thursday, per Twentyman. “The offensive line is an area we’re going to focus on.”

As Wood implied, the Lions’ O-line did struggle in pass protection last season, evidenced by a 23rd overall ranking in sacks allowed and a 22nd-place finish in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate metric. Even though he easily ranked as the Lions’ best O-lineman by PFF’s standards last season, Manny Ramirez won’t be part of the group going forward, Birkett tweeted Thursday. Ramirez, who went from back-to-back 16-start campaigns with Denver to seven as a Lion last season, will sign with another club as a free agent.

The Lions are content with starting guards Larry Warford and Laken Tomlinson, per Justin Rogers of MLive.com, as well as Riley Reiff occupying one of the tackle spots. Thus, they could look to upgrade opposite Reiff and find a superior center to Travis Swanson.

The cream-of-the-crop pending free agents at tackle are, in some order, Cordy Glenn (Bills), Russell Okung (Seahawks), Donald Penn (Raiders), Kelvin Beachum (Steelers) and Mitchell Schwartz (Browns). Fitzgerald expects Glenn, Okung, Beachum and Schwartz to land five-year agreements worth anywhere from $6MM to $9MM annually. Penn, 33 in April, is much older than the others and won’t receive the same caliber of contract in either length or total value. However, having started a whopping 128 games in a row since 2008, he’ll command big money over the short term.

Should the Lions veer away from expensive veteran tackles and prioritize drafting one instead, local product Jack Conklin (Michigan State) and Ohio State’s Taylor Decker could pique their interest in the first round (No. 16 overall).

The free agent center class currently features Stefen Wisniewski (Jaguars) and Ben Jones (Texans) as the standouts. Wisniewski has started in all 77 of his appearances since entering the league in 2011 and should do better than the one-year, $2.5MM deal he got from Jacksonville last offseason. Jones has fewer career starts (43 in 64 appearances), but he has made 32 in a row.

The Browns’ Alex Mack, who’s coming off his third Pro Bowl season, will hit the market if he goes the expected route and opts out of his contract. The 30-year-old’s current deal places him sixth among centers in total value ($42MM), fifth in annual value ($8.4MM) and second in guarantees ($18MM). If Mack opts out, he could then become the the first center ever to eclipse $9MM annually, according to CBS Sports’ Joel Corry (link via Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com).

On the other side of the line, where Ngata and Walker are unsigned, the Lions are quite thin at defensive tackle. If they venture into free agency to address the position, potential choices include Damon Harrison (Jets), Ian Williams (49ers) and Terrance Knighton (Washington). Ex-Lion Nick Fairley is also without a deal as of now after spending 2015 with the Rams, but he’s unlikely to have a second act in Detroit, according to Rothstein.

Unfortunately for the Lions (and other teams in search of a DT), Harrison said earlier this week that he and the Jets “are headed in the right direction with a deal getting done.” If negotiations fall apart, the 27-year-old will garner plenty of interest from clubs that need to improve against opposing ground games. Harrison, who has started 48 straight contests, is a top-tier run stopper whom PFF ranked No. 1 in that category among interior D-linemen last season.

Another defender to keep an eye on as a possibility for Detroit is the Patriots’ Akiem Hicks, whom Quinn was influential in acquiring from the Saints last fall, as Birkett detailed. Hicks finished with three sacks in 13 games with New England and was PFF’s 42nd-best interior lineman, three spots behind Ngata. The four-year veteran has been a role player throughout his career (33 starts, 9.5 sacks in 61 games), so he shouldn’t cost a bank-breaking amount to sign. When combining Quinn’s affinity for Hicks with the Lions’ issues up front, it’ll be a surprise if they don’t at least kick the tires on the 26-year-old when free agency begins.

If the Lions emerge from the open market dissatisfied with their D-line, they could try to beef up via the draft. In his latest mock draft, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report has the team selecting Louisville D-tackle Sheldon Rankins in the first round. Miller says Rankins is “going to draw some comparisons to Aaron Donald with his 6-foot-2, 304-pound frame,” adding that he’s “a perfect fit at three-technique in Detroit.”

With Tulloch on the outs, bolstering their linebacking corps could be on the Lions’ to-do list. However, they won’t need to make any headline-grabbing pickups if Whitehead stays. Stalwart DeAndre Levy will return after missing almost all of 2015 with a hip injury – he’s on track for training camp, according to Wood – and four-year veteran Josh Bynes is fresh off a breakout showing. Bynes thrived in a much bigger role than he had in 2014, leading Lions LBs in defensive snap percentage (78.0) and ranking as PFF’s 13th-best ‘backer last season.

If the Lions don’t keep Whitehead, who will presumably man the middle in the event he re-ups, perhaps they’ll join the Danny Trevathan sweepstakes. The 25-year-old was highly productive for the Broncos two of the last three years and helped their defense steamroll its way to a championship last season. Trevathan accrued 109 tackles, two picks and, in PFF’s view, was the league’s 10th-best LB. He’ll next try to cash in as a free agent, and if he’s out of the Lions’ price range, they could use the draft as a means to replace Whitehead. Early round possibilities for the Lions include Reggie Ragland (Alabama), Jaylon Smith (Notre Dame) and Scooby Wright (Arizona State), as Rothstein wrote earlier this week.

Much like their linebacker situation, whether the Lions find noteworthy safety help from outside will depend on the fate of in-house talent. In this instance, it’s the aforementioned Abdul-Quddus. Letting him go could lead the Lions in the direction of free agents like the Bengals’ Reggie Nelson and George Iloka, Eric Weddle (Chargers) and Tashaun Gipson (Browns).

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

"<strongIf Johnson continues playing, the Lions could ask him to restructure his contract. As mentioned above, he’s due a $15.95MM salary next season and a cap hit in excess of $24MM.

When the Cardinals and receiver Larry Fitzgerald reworked his deal last offseason, they may have set an example for the Lions and Johnson to follow this year (that’s the Lions’ hope, anyway, as Rapoport tweeted earlier this month). Fitzgerald was scheduled to make $16MM and carry a $23.6MM cap figure last season, but the restructuring created $13MM in space for 2015 and guaranteed Fitzgerald $22MM over two years.

Though Johnson’s future is in doubt, one cornerstone player the Lions won’t lose anytime soon is defensive end Ezekial Ansah. The Lions have to decide this offseason whether to exercise or decline Ansah’s fifth-year option for 2017. They’re sure to pick it up, guaranteeing he’ll remain under their control for at least two more seasons. Since the Lions took Ansah fifth overall in the 2013 draft, the former BYU star has totaled 30 sacks and nine forced fumbles. He piled up career bests (14.5 and four) in those categories last season.

While Ansah is the prime get from the Lions’ 2013 rookie class, they found several more useful contributors that year in a tremendous draft for the franchise. Second-round cornerback Darius Slay leads a group that also features Warford (third round), defensive end Devin Taylor (fourth round), punter Sam Martin (fifth round) and Riddick (sixth round). The bad news for Detroit is that those five are just a year from free agency. The team could look to extend any or all of them this offseason, though.

Slay, 25, has done the most to earn an exorbitant contract. The 6-1, 192-pounder started 16 games for the second straight year and ranked as PFF’s No. 2 overall corner (111 qualifiers) last season. Knowing he’s in line for an appreciable raise, Slay hired Rosenhaus Sports to represent him in January and then approached the Lions about an extension earlier this month, Meinke reported. Rogers wrote earlier this week that Slay could end up with a five-year deal worth $50MM to $55MM, including $20MM in guarantees. Those totals would presently rank seventh and sixth, respectively, among corners.

Warford has started in all 42 of his career appearances, though PFF wasn’t nearly as enamored with him as it was Slay last season. The site gave Warford a run-of-the-mill overall mark (39th out of 81 qualifying guards) and a particularly poor grade as a run blocker. If the Lions and Warford open extension talks, he could use the deal fellow right guard James Carpenter signed with the Jets last year as a comparable. Carpenter, who also wasn’t a PFF darling, spun 39 starts in four seasons into a four-year, $19MM contract. Carpenter is now sixth among right guards in total value, seventh in yearly value ($4.75MM) and 12th in guaranteed money ($5.5MM).

Taylor took on a larger role than ever last season and impressed, playing over 52 percent of the Lions’ defensive snaps (up from 21.5% in 2014) and collecting the second-most sacks on the team (seven). Taylor’s current value isn’t easy to pin down as far as a contract goes, but rushing the passer is a premium skill and he’ll set himself up for a healthy payday with a repeat (or an improvement) in 2016.

Martin has ranked in the top 10 in the league in net punting average in all three of his seasons. He could therefore seek top 10 money at his position, which would mean upward of $2.8MM annually.

As for Riddick, he has never been much of a factor as a rusher (72 career attempts, 2.9 YPC), but he did lead all running backs with 80 receptions last season. If he and the Lions discuss an extension in the coming months, they could settle in the $1.5MM to $2.5MM yearly range. That’s what pass-catching backs like Dion Lewis, Bilal Powell, Roy Helu and Reggie Bush have signed for over the past year. Given Riddick’s limitations as a runner, he shouldn’t warrant more than that.

Overall Outlook:

It’s clear that Johnson’s decision, whether it’s to retire or stick around, will be the defining story of Detroit’s offseason. His choice will carry heavy cap ramifications, and those consequences will help chart a course for Quinn as he tries to push the Lions from mediocrity to the postseason.

Quinn doesn’t have to make an overwhelming amount of upgrades to get the Lions back into the hunt, but the roster’s main weaknesses are glaring. If Johnson exits and isn’t properly replaced and the defensive line isn’t satisfactorily addressed, the Lions might require a sequel to Stafford’s superhuman performance from late last season in order to contend for a playoff berth in 2016. Of course, that output will be all the more difficult for Stafford to replicate if his only proven wideout is Golden Tate.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: New Orleans Saints

February 18th, 2016 at 10:00pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Drew Brees, QB: $30,000,000
  2. Junior Galette, OLB: $12,100,000 (dead money)
  3. Jairus Byrd, S: $10,900,000
  4. Cameron Jordan, DE: $8,000,000
  5. Keenan Lewis, CB: $6,350,000
  6. Max Unger, C: $6,200,000
  7. Marques Colston, WR: $5,900,000
  8. Brandon Browner, CB: $6,300,000
  9. Jahri Evans, G: $5,100,000 (dead money)
  10. Zach Strief, T: $4,543,750
  11. C.J. Spiller, RB: $4,500,000
  12. Thomas Morstead, P: $4,450,000
  13. Mark Ingram, RB: $4,000,000
  14. Dannell Ellerbe, ILB: $3,200,000
  15. Kenny Vaccaro, S: $2,998,770

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • Head coach: Retained Sean Payton, despite reported interest from other teams.
  • Offensive staff: Hired former Dolphins HC Dan Campbell as TEs coach/assistant HC.
  • Defensive coordinator: Retained Dennis Allen, who took over job during 2015 season.
  • Defensive staff: Hired former Rams DC Peter Guinta as senior defensive assistant.

Draft:

  • No. 12 overall pick
  • Owe sixth-round pick to Washington in deal for CB Damian Swann.

Other:

Overview:

A second consecutive 7-9 season in New Orleans served to expose the two major problems in the Saints’ organization: the failure of general manager Mickey Loomis & Co. to properly manage the salary cap, and the club’s utter collapse on the defensive side of the ball. Both issues have contributed to New Orleans’ failure to reach the postseason since 2013, and it’s fair to wonder if either problem will be corrected as the team heads into 2016.Mickey Loomis (Vertical)

The Saints are currently set to enter the offseason will less than $8MM in cap space (even after restructuring the contracts of both linebacker Dannell Ellerbe and defensive end Cameron Jordan), and a lack of financial flexibility has long plagued the club as it seeks to bring in free agents. The result of that mismanagement is a team that lacks depth, is forced to release still-valuable players (like guard Jahri Evans), and is constantly reworking deals while living on the edge of salary cap purgatory.

Even a quick glance at New Orleans’ books shows a club in financial ruin, a fate which lies on the shoulders of Loomis and rest of the front office. The Saints will carry the most dead money in the league by a wide margin ($22.2MM, about $7MM more than the second-place Falcons), and quarterback Drew Brees‘ 2016 cap charge of $30MM is the largest in the NFL. We’ll discuss ways in which New Orleans can not only lower that hit, but increase their cap space overall, but the point stands: the Saints need to take a hard look at the way they do business, and possibly consider revamping their power structure if the same problems persist.

On the field, the Saints’ defense was clearly the worst in NFL last season, ranking last in both DVOA and scoring, and next-to-last in yards. At 26.1% below average (per DVOA), the unit ranks as the NFL’s worst defense since 2000 — only five other clubs have topped the 20% mark, and none reached New Orleans’ lows. As such, defensive coordinator Rob Ryan was fired midseason. Former Raiders head coach Dennis Allen took over play-calling duties, and he’ll keep the DC title heading into next season.

Lest we remain completely negative, it’s important to note that the Saints didn’t completely bottom out in 2015, and that’s mostly thanks to the offense, which ranked second in yards, eighth in points, and seventh in DVOA. New Orleans’ offensive unit has placed inside the top 12 of DVOA during every season of the Brees/Sean Payton era, and given that Payton will return to the sidelines after flirting with other vacancies, that doesn’t figure to change.

Key Free Agents:

At the ripe age of 35, tight end Ben Watson posted the best season of his 12-year career, setting highs in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. But despite those lofty numbers, Watson’s age will likely prevent him from earning big on the open market. A two-year deal is probably his ceiling, with a salary under $3MM attached. Watson did recently say that he’s had talks with both Loomis and Payton, so perhaps a reunion with the Saints is in the offing.Ben Watson (Vertical)

Starting his first game since 2011, backup quarterback Luke McCown completed 32-of-39 passes for 355 yards during a narrow Week 3 loss to the Panthers. It was a solid showing — especially given McCown’s four-year respite — but the veteran signal-caller’s season went downhill from there, as he underwent season-ending back surgery in November. The 34-year-old recently said that he’d love to return to New Orleans for a fourth-season, and Mike Triplett of ESPN.com believes the Saints will indeed re-sign McCown, allowing 2015 third-round pick Garrett Grayson another year to develop as the club’s No. 3 quarterback.

The Saints have some decisions to make at the running back position, where Tim Hightower, Khiry Robinson (restricted), Kendall Hunter, and Travaris Cadet are all free agents. The status of C.J. Spiller (covered below) will have some effect on who New Orleans decides to keep around, but Robinson will almost surely be back on a low tender as he recovers from a broken leg. Hightower, meanwhile, was highly impressive as the club’s lead back during the final three games of the year, averaging 4.32 yards per carry and scoring three times. He’ll be 30 years old when the season starts, so I doubt he’ll get much in the way of outside offers, meaning he could return as a nice complement to Mark Ingram.

Even during his age-35 season, defensive tackle Kevin Williams was still productive, grading as the No. 33 interior defender among 123 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus. After remaining remarkably durable for most of his career, Williams has missed 10 games during the last two seasons, so his age might be catching up with him. Nonetheless, he played more than 52% of the Saints’ snaps last year, so there’s no reason he can’t keep playing if he so chooses — he was non-committal about his future as of last November, but sounded like he enjoyed his time in New Orleans.

28-year-old safety Rafael Bush missed virtually all of last season, managing just 22 snaps before being placed on injured reserve with a torn pectoral muscle. Still, he’d been a valuable reserve in years past, starting in place of Jairus Byrd while the latter dealt with injuries, and playing in three-safety sets along with Byrd and Kenny Vaccaro. The Saints thought highly enough of Bush to match an offer sheet proffered by the Falcons prior to the 2014 season, and now that he’s a free agent, I expect New Orleans will attempt to retain him. But as Bush noted when he signed that Atlanta offer sheet, he’d like the opportunity to start, something that won’t happen with the Saints.

Former first-round pick Kyle Wilson has never lived up to his draft billing, but the 28-year-old cornerback is an important reminder that high draft choices aren’t necessarily “busts” if they don’t become stars. As Joel Erickson of the Advocate wrote last fall, Wilson stepped up in the secondary when others were injured, playing outside, in the slot, and even at free safety. Perhaps he shouldn’t be counted on as a starter, but every club needs depth pieces – or as Erickson dubs them in his piece, “fix-it” men – to get through the slog of the season.

Signed in mid-October after the Saints cut Zach Hocker, kicker Kai Forbath wasn’t great during the final 10 games of the season, missing four of 13 field goals, including two from inside 40 yards. Teams in cap trouble can’t afford to spend much on specialists, however, so perhaps Forbath will be retained on a minimum salary deal. I’d expect the Saints to bring in some competition though.

Possible Cap Casualties:

We’ll start with an easy one — cornerback Brandon Browner is expected to be released, but because his ensuing dead money will accelerate onto the Saints’ current cap, the club will apparently wait until the new league year starts on March 9 to process the move. From a production standpoint, it’s a simple call, as Pro Football Focus rated Browner dead last in the league among 113 qualified cornerbacks. But releasing him will save the Saints just $950K (against $5.35MM in dead money) unless he’s designated as a post-June 1 cut, spreading the dead money hit out over the next two seasons.Marques Colston (Vertical)

Set to enter his 11th season in New Orleans, wide receiver Marques Colston is a candidate to either be released or see his salary reduced, as he’s due to count $5.9MM against the cap. The Saints would save $3.2MM by cutting him, and given his production during the past three seasons – he’s averaged just 60 receptions for 788 yards and five touchdowns since 2013 – it’s a move the club has to consider.

Another player selected in the seventh round of the 2006 draft – offensive tackle Zach Strief – could also be on the chopping block. The 32-year-old Strief has made it clear that he’ll retire if he’s let go by New Orleans, and given that he’s due about $4.5MM in 2016, a release is certainly a possibility. But another option, in my opinion, could be to ask Strief to take a pay cut with the intention of moving him back to guard, where he spent the first five years of his career. He’d be an upgrade at that spot, and 2015 first-round pick Andrus Peat could take over at right tackle.

Running back C.J. Spiller was the Saints’ key free agent addition on offense, but his first season in New Orleans was a disappointment, as he managed only 351 yards from scrimmage (with nearly 25% of that total coming on a memorable 80-yard reception in overtime to beat the Cowboys in Week 4). He’d almost certainly be designated as a post-June 1 release if cut, saving the club $3.25MM in the process. Loomis was non-committal on Spiller’s status during a January press conference, claiming that he “[couldn’t] really say” if the running back was a part of the Saints’ future. But the GM did say recently that he expects Spiller to rebound from a litany on injuries in 2016.

Veteran punter Thomas Morstead certainly wasn’t terrible in 2015 (he ranked 10th in net punting average), but his cap charge of $4.45MM is good for 10th on the Saints’ roster, and is second-highest among all NFL punters. That’s probably not a palatable hit for a club that is so close to going over the salary cap. Morstead could be asked to restructure, but if he’s cut, Brandon Fields — who filled in during the two games Morstead was banged up — would be a cheaper option.

Positions Of Need:

Unsurprisingly, most of the Saints’ needs are on the defensive side of the ball, so we’ll start there, specifically along the defensive line. New Orleans finished 31st in the league in adjusted sack rate, and 25th in sacks with only 31 (nearly a third of which came from one player, defensive end Cameron Jordan). The first order of business will be finding someone to play opposite Jordan, be it in free agency or through the draft.

Without the cap space to target a top free agent end like Olivier Vernon, the Saints will have to find cheaper options, one of whom could be Vernon’s Dolphins teammate Derrick Shelby, who posted 3.5 sacks during limited playing time last season. The Rams’ William Hayes, often overshadowed by other members of the Los Angeles line, or the Giants’ Robert Ayers, once thought of as a first-round bust but now a productive contributor, could also be fits.

Finding a three-technique defensive tackle to eventually (or perhaps, immediately) replace Kevin Williams should also be a priority, but unless the Saints want to find the money to pay Nick Fairley, or take a chance on someone such as a rehabbing Brandon Thompson, there isn’t much available on the open market.

Instead, New Orleans should use its No. 12 overall pick to address its defensive line concerns, and the club is in luck, because the 2016 draft class is thought to be deepest along the front four. Ohio State’s Joey Bosa will be gone, but Clemson’s Shaq Lawson, Eastern Kentucky’s Noah Spence, and Michigan State’s Shilique Calhoun could all help at defensive end, while Alabama’s A’Shawn Robinson and Louisville’s Sheldon Rankins could be available at tackle. Finding a pass-rusher, either from the edge or the interior, in the first round should be the Saints’ main goal, especially since the draft choice will be both cheap and controllable for the long-term via the fifth-year option.

The Saints are probably set at linebacker with a starting trio of Dannell Ellerbe, Stephone Anthony, and Hau’oli Kikaha, but adding a draft pick here wouldn’t be a bad idea. Ellerbe missed 10 games with injury last season, and New Orleans suffered from a lack of depth in his absence. Moreover, Ellerbe, at 30 years old, isn’t the long-term answer on the weakside, so the Saints should try to find his replacement.

The other pressing need on the New Orleans defense might be at cornerback, though the return of a group of players — Keenan Lewis, P.J. Williams, and Damian Swann — could help eliminate the obligation to add talent in the secondary. Still, the free agent corner market is relatively deep, and if the amount of available talent dilutes the market enough that prices begin to drop, the Saints could stand to add a piece.

There aren’t as many areas of concern on the offensive side of the ball, but one position group that could use an upgrade is the offensive line (though overall, the unit was solid, ranking fifth in adjusted sack rate and 13th in adjusted line yards). Following the release of Jahri Evans, the Saints need to find at least one guard, and depending on how the club feels about restricted free agent Tim Lelito, perhaps two. As I noted above, Zach Strief could be a candidate to move inside, and there’s also a decent crop of collegiate guards that look to be available in the middle rounds, per CBSSports.com’s draft board.

Wide receiver is another area that could be addressed (pending a decision on Marques Colston), but I’m guessing the Saints still have high hopes for Brandon Coleman, and might look to pair him with Brandin Cooks while Willie Snead handles the slot. While the free agent receiver class is almost completely barren, New Orleans could spend a late-round pick at the position.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

The contract of quarterback Drew Brees is the single most important issue the Saints must tackle during the next calendar year. Ideally, the club would extend Brees before the start of the new league year, lowering his enormous $30MM cap charge in the process. Loomis said on February 16 that the Saints would like to sign Brees to a long-term deal, a concept that Brees himself seemed amenable to in early January.Drew Brees (Vertical)

In negotiations, Brees would have every right to ask for a deal similar to the ones inked by Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers during the past 12 months: four years, ~$85MM, with $35MM in guarantees. At 37 years old, Brees is a bit older than that trio was when they signed their extensions (Manning, at 34, was the oldest of the cadre), but there’s no indication that his play has significantly declined, so he should be able to request top-of-the-market value. If the Saints are unable to extend Brees, the cost of the franchise tag in 2017 would be untenable ($43.2MM), so the quarterback will have real leverage in contract discussions.

Elsewhere on the roster, New Orleans could look to lock up two players who were both selected in the third round of the 2013 draft — left tackle Terron Armstead and defensive tackle John Jenkins. Because neither was a first-round pick, the Saints don’t have a fifth-year option to wield, so both players are projected to enter free agency after the 2016 season.

Armstead took over as the Saints’ left tackle in 2014, and went on to start 27 games over the next two seasons. Payton recently said that he wouldn’t trade Armstead for any other lineman in the league, and New Orleans should be able to lock him up without reaching the $12MM mark set by Trent Williams and Tyron Smith.

Jenkins, meanwhile, isn’t quite the player Armstead is, but he’s a solid contributor, having played 50% of the club’s defensive snaps last season (third-most among Saints defensive lineman). He’s much better against the run than the pass, grading as a top-40 interior defender in the run game, per Pro Football Focus. Jenkins isn’t a star, but extending productive players at below-market rates before they’re on the brink of free agency would be a good first step for a New Orleans franchise that needs to reset its salary cap thinking.

Speaking of cap space, safety Jairus Byrd is a candidate to have his contract restructured in order to help the Saints’ books. Byrd is due a $7.4MM base salary in 2016, all of which is now guaranteed. Converting, say, $6MM of that total into a signing bonus, and spreading it out over the next four years of Byrd’s deal, would save $4.5MM this offseason — not much for most teams, but New Orleans could use all the wiggle room it can get.

Finally, the Saints must make a decision on safety Kenny Vaccaro‘s 2017 fifth-year option. Vaccaro hasn’t repeated his excellent first-year production, but he’s still very valuable, and has started 44 of 48 games during his career. I expect New Orleans to exercise the option.

Overall Outlook:

Obviously, the Saints have a short window in which to compete, given the age of quarterback Drew Brees, but there’s simply no way to be successful when employing the salary cap techniques used by New Orleans. Not only does such short-sighted thinking harm the long-term future of the franchise, but it’s hard to sustain even year-to-year success when new players are constantly being shuffled in and out.

The Panthers (obviously) and the Buccaneers (with young quarterback Jameis Winston) are set up to contend in the NFC South for the foreseeable future. The Saints – and Falcons, to an extent – are seemingly in a constant state of roster limbo, pinning their hopes on a franchise quarterback while deploying little in the way of resources elsewhere. New Orleans needs to take a long look in the mirror and take the necessary steps to clean up its salary cap, or else the club won’t be close to a postseason berth again for some time.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Raiders

February 17th, 2016 at 10:00pm CST by Rory Parks

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Michael Crabtree, WR: $11,000,000
  2. Rodney Hudson, C: $7,700,000
  3. Dan Williams, DT: $7,500,000
  4. Austin Howard, T: $5,900,000
  5. Curtis Lofton, ILB: $5,500,000
  6. Amari Cooper, WR: $5,150,709
  7. Khalil Mack, DE/OLB: $5,093,728
  8. Sebastian Janikowski, K: $3,960,000
  9. Marcel Reece, RB: $3,530,839
  10. D.J. Hayden, CB: $3,284,813
  11. Malcolm Smith, OLB: $3,000,000
  12. Lee Smith, TE: $2,750,000
  13. Jamize Olawale, FB: $2,190,000
  14. Roy Helu, RB: $2,000,000
  15. Mychal Rivera, TE: $1,673,213

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • None.

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

After appearing in Super Bowl XXXVII at the end of the 2002 season, the Raiders have failed to finish above .500 even once. Their play during that time has ranged from decidedly mediocre to outright terrible, but in 2015, Raiders fans may have finally glimpsed a light at the end of their tunnel. Under new head coach Jack Del Rio, the team finished just 7-9, but there are some reasons for hope.Derek Carr

Second-year quarterback Derek Carr showed that he might well be the team’s long-awaited answer under center, as he completed over 61% of his passes for nearly 4,000 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, posting a 91.1 rating in the process. He immediately established a rapport with rookie wideout Amari Cooper, who became the first Oakland wide receiver to top 1,000 yards since Randy Moss did it in 2005. Cooper, Carr, and third-year running back Latavius Murray were all named to the Pro Bowl, giving the Raiders a young and talented trio at the skill positions. That’s not to mention young tight end Clive Walford, who showed promise in his rookie campaign, and receiver Michael Crabtree, who was brought in on a modest one-year contract but who signed a four-year, $35MM extension in December.

On the defensive side of the ball, Khalil Mack became a full-fledged superstar, picking up 15 sacks and grading out as the best edge defender in the league, per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required). PFF suggested that Mack was even better against the run than he was against the pass, and his efforts earned him a First-Team All-Pro nod — at two separate positions (defensive end and outside linebacker).

However, the defense as a whole finished in the middle of the pack, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, as did the offense, so there is room for improvement on both sides of the ball. Luckily for the Raiders, they have a ton of cap room with which to address their concerns, and GM Reggie McKenzie, who was on the hot seat not long ago, has now orchestrated two consecutive drafts that have paid immediate dividends. With continuity in the coaching staff, a GM who seems to have found his footing, and a roster stocked with a fair amount of young talent, the Raiders could compete for a playoff spot in 2016.

Key Free Agents:

Not only are the Raiders flush with cap space, but they are also fortunate in that they do not have many of their own free agents that they absolutely need to re-sign. Interestingly enough, the most important player for the club to keep under contract this year might be its punter, Marquette King.

King has established himself as one of the best punters in the league, and it would not be unreasonable for him to look at Sam Koch‘s recent five-year, $18.75MM extension as a starting point in contract negotiations. I would think a five-year deal worth around $20MM in total value would make sense for King, and while such a contract would hardly make a dent on the Raiders’ available cap room, it would ensure that the team keeps one of its most underrated weapons under club control for the foreseeable future. The franchise tag may also be in play here.

The Raiders will probably also want to bring back left tackle Donald Penn. Penn might not be elite, but he’s squarely in the second tier of the league’s left tackles, and he finished the 2015 season as the NFL’s 11th-best lineman out of 77 eligible players, per PFF.Donald Penn He is also eminently dependable, having started all 16 games every season since 2008. The nine-year veteran spent the first seven seasons of his career with Tampa Bay before coming to terms with Oakland on a modest two-year pact prior to the 2014 season, a deal that ultimately earned him a little over $10MM. He has stated that he wants to retire a Raider, and in fact expressed some frustration earlier this month that the team had not yet contacted him about a new contract.

Although the Raiders are taking their time when it comes to discussing an extension for Penn, there aren’t many tackles on the free agent market that would represent a clear upgrade. Russell Okung could be an intriguing option, but his injury history is troubling and his name-recognition value has exceeded his on-field production in recent seasons (although he has been a strong pass blocker when healthy). The Bills’ Cordy Glenn is a prime candidate for the franchise tag, which would effectively take him off the market, and outside of Kelechi Osemele, whose experience at left tackle is limited, there is no one else that would be a better fit for the Raiders than Penn.

The top two tackle prospects in the draft, Laremy Tunsil and Ronnie Stanley, will likely be off the board by the time the Raiders’ No. 14 selection rolls around, though Michigan State’s Jack Conklin may still be available. But given that the Raiders have more pressing needs on the defensive side of the ball—particularly in the secondary—I would expect the Raiders and Penn to work something out within the next couple of weeks, and a two- or three-year deal with an average annual value of roughly $7MM would be a reasonable agreement for both parties.

Wideouts Andre Holmes and Rod Streater have both shown flashes at various times in their Oakland careers, but at this point it appears as though the Raiders are prepared to move on without them. The team is probably more than prepared to part ways with offensive lineman J’Marcus Webb as well. Menelik Watson and Austin Howard will compete for the starting right tackle spot, and last year’s fourth-round draft pick, Jon Feliciano, could fit in at right guard. While the team would probably not be averse to bringing back Khalif Barnes for some depth, Webb has never been an especially capable NFL player and will probably struggle to stick on anyone’s roster next season.

Given the Raiders’ deficiencies in the secondary, which have been compounded by the retirement of surefire Hall-of-Famer Charles Woodson, the team will likely try to retain at least one of Taylor Mays and Larry Asante. Oakland will also hope for a bounce-back year from Nate Allen, whom they recently released and re-signed to a more team-friendly deal. Allen had his 2015 season cut short by a torn MCL and ultimately appeared in only five games in his first year in silver-and-black.

The Raiders gave Aldon Smith a second chance when he was released by the 49ers in August, and he showed glimpses of his fearsome pass rush ability, racking up 3.5 sacks in nine games with Oakland. However, he was hit with a one-year suspension in November, meaning that he can’t even be around the Raiders’ facility until next November. Nonetheless, the Raiders knew when they signed Smith that he would be a long-term project, and both sides have shown an express interest in continuing their relationship. I foresee Smith and the Raiders ultimately striking an incentive-laden deal at some point in the offseason, and although Smith may not contribute much if and when he returns to the field in 2016, the 2017 Raiders could feature Smith and Mack as bookend pass rushers, a prospect that would certainly keep opposing quarterbacks up at night.

Positions Of Need:

As noted above, the Raiders are in dire need of secondary help, both at cornerback and at safety. 2013 first-round draft pick D.J. Hayden has been a disaster, and Mays and Asante are average at best. Even at full health, Allen has never been a consistent performer, and although cornerback David Amerson was a pleasant surprise after being claimed on waivers last September, he is just one year removed from being rated as the worst cornerback in the league per PFF’s metrics. McKenzie will certainly have his work cut out for him as he tries to turn around one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses.

Luckily, free agency offers a number of potential solutions in that regard. At the safety position, the market is headlined by Eric Weddle, Eric Berry, Reggie Nelson, Tashaun Gipson, and George Iloka, and the recently-released William Moore would also be an interesting possibility to replace the veteran leadership void left by Woodson. Although Berry may re-sign with Kansas City or get the franchise tag before hitting the market, Weddle will almost certainly be available, and it currently appears as though Nelson and Gipson will both test the free agent waters as well.

This year’s free agent cornerback class is also quite deep. The Raiders could choose from a list of names that includes Sean Smith, Janoris Jenkins, Prince Amukamara, Greg Toler, Leon Hall, Casey Heyward, and Trumaine Johnson. Josh Norman could also theoretically be available, but Carolina is likely to hit him with the franchise tag. Oakland would be in pretty good shape if it could come away with at least two of the above-named defensive backs, and if the Raiders supplement those signings with a couple of second-tier options—names like James Ihedigbo and Shareece Wright jump immediately to mind—as well as a draft selection or two, they could see a marked improvement.

It is worth noting that the Raiders were in pursuit of a number of big-ticket free agents last year, but they failed to land most of their high-priced targets. Given that they now appear to be a team on the rise, the Raiders may be a more attractive option to some of the more noteworthy players on the market this time around.

As far as the draft is concerned, top cornerback prospects Jalen Ramsey and Vernon Hargreaves will likely not fall to Oakland, but Clemson’s Mackensie Alexander would be a quality option. At safety, Miles Killebrew and Jeremy Cash are potential Day 2 selections, but neither is particularly strong in coverage, and Oakland would probably be better-served addressing its safety needs in free agency this year.

While the offensive line is not a pressing issue at the moment—assuming, of course, the Raiders re-sign Penn—the Raiders would do well to bring in a young lineman or two (ESPN’s Mel Kiper, in fact, has mocked Conklin to the Raiders in his first mock draft). If Penn is not retained, then the O-line suddenly becomes a cause for concern and would need to be meaningfully addressed in the draft, free agency, or both. We touched on some of the team’s options for offensive linemen above, and it’s also worth pointing out that, if Penn does not return, former Giant Will Beatty may provide similar services at a similar (or lesser) rate.

The Raiders could also use help at inside linebacker, as Curtis Lofton was a disappointment in his first season with the club. Although it’s probably not enough of a need to use a first-round pick on a linebacker, a player like Ohio State’s Joshua Perry is worth keeping an eye on during the second day of the draft, especially since this year’s crop of free agent linebackers is relatively weak (plus, 2015 fifth-rounder Neiron Ball could end up seeing more playing time, especially if he can put together a strong offseason).

It might also behoove the club to find a running back in the middle rounds of the draft or free agency to keep Murray fresh. An ESPN report from a few days ago indicated that Oakland would do just that.

Possible Cap Casualties:

Although the Raiders do not need to shed any salary in order to be active in free agency, to retain their own free agents, and to conduct other offseason business, that doesn’t mean that they should avoid making cuts or purusing restructures where necessary. That’s especially true given that the team may want to begin looking at long-term extensions for Carr and Mack next year and for Cooper the year after that. At the moment, it appears as though all of those contracts will be hugely expensive.

That being said, there is simply not much the Raiders can or should do right now in terms of modifications or cuts. In fact, Spotrac’s list of potential cap casualties released on the first day of 2016 featured no Raiders players.Curtis Lofton

Curtis Lofton might have been a release candidate, but given that the Raiders allowed $3.5MM of his 2016 $5.35MM base salary to become fully guaranteed last week, it is apparent that Lofton will remain on the club. The Raiders might also consider cutting or even trading D.J. Hayden, but such a move would save the team less than $2MM against the cap, and considering Oakland’s depth problems in the secondary, hanging on to Hayden for one last year may make sense.

Many pundits were praising the signing of Roy Helu as one of the steals of free agency last year, but Helu never became a meaningful part of the team’s offense, and Oakland could create $2MM of cap room by releasing him.

Marcel Reece has been a useful member of the team’s offense in recent seasons, particularly as a blocker, and he is one of longest-tenured members of the roster (and a team captain to boot). But he will miss the first three games of the 2016 season due to his PED-related suspension, and Jamize Olawale looks more than capable of stepping into Reece’s shoes. The team could save $2.65MM by letting Reece go.

Finally, the Raiders could release longtime kicker Sebastian Janikowski and save $3.24MM by doing so. Janikowski stumbled in 2015, finishing 28th in the league in field goal percentage, though he was efficient in kicks over 50 yards. It would be somewhat surprising to see the Raiders release Janikowski before training camp, but Oakland should be on the lookout for the heir apparent to their aging kicker, who will turn 38 in March.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Just as the Raiders do not have many decisions to make in terms of significant releases, they also do not have much to do by way of contract extensions. It is too soon to explore extensions for the “Big Three” of Carr, Cooper, and Mack, but Latavius Murray is entering the final year of his rookie contract and could be in line for a new multi-year deal.Latavius Murray

Murray was one of only seven backs league-wide to run for more than 1,000 yards, and he did so behind an offensive line that ranked just 19th in adjusted line yards. We recently learned that Lamar Miller is seeking a deal that would pay him around $5MM annually, and if he is able to land that type of payday, Murray would likely be able to command around the same. Contracts for running backs are generally becoming less and less expensive, so assuming Murray wants to stay in Oakland, it shouldn’t be too difficult for the Raiders to meet his market value.

Marcel Reece, meanwhile, is one of those rare players who could be an extension candidate or a release candidate. Reece was recently mentioned by Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com as a player that Oakland might consider extending, and his abilities as a blocker and receiver out of the backfield, along with his captaincy, explain why. Reece, like Murray, is entering the final year of his contract, and though he is more valuable to the Raiders than anyone else, it would not take much to get an extension done (a two-year, $6MM contract should be enough).

Longtime long snapper Jon Condo, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent next season, might also receive an extension at some point this year.

Overall Outlook:

The elephant in the room of course, is the question of where the Raiders will be playing their home games in the near future. They will remain at the O.Co Coliseum in Oakland for 2016, and the club’s new one-year lease with the Coliseum includes options for the 2017 and 2018 seasons, so owner Mark Davis will have some flexibility as he searches for a long-term stadium solution in the Bay Area and elsewhere.

While the Raiders’ efforts to get a new stadium will certainly continue to make headlines, the team’s roster is the focus here, and as far as their immediate on-field prospects are concerned, the Raiders are in pretty good shape — they may again emerge as playoff contenders after a 13-year hiatus from the postseason.

There are doubtlessly a number of issues to be resolved: the secondary is a mess, and the offensive line, even if Penn is re-signed, needs some depth and perhaps a re-tooling on the right side. And despite the strong play of Dan Williams and rookie Mario Edwards, and the star turn of Mack, McKenzie should at least add some quality depth pieces to the front seven.

However, with a promising young quarterback, a rising young wideout, and a second-year pass rusher who should at least be in the discussion for the best defensive player in the league, the Raiders have a lot to look forward to. Assuming continued growth from Carr and Cooper, and assuming McKenzie is able to effectively address the team’s defensive issues, this is certainly a team that can compete in the AFC West.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Rams

February 16th, 2016 at 10:00pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Chris Long, DE: $14,250,000
  2. Robert Quinn, DE: $11,157,373
  3. Nick Foles, QB: $8,750,000
  4. Jared Cook, TE: $8,300,441
  5. James Laurinaitis, ILB: $6,425,000
  6. Michael Brockers, DT: $6,146,000
  7. Greg Robinson, T: $5,804,754
  8. Rodger Saffold, G: $5,656,250
  9. Kenny Britt, WR: $4,850,000
  10. Lance Kendricks, TE: $4,500,000
  11. Tavon Austin, WR: $4,057,137
  12. Akeem Ayers, OLB: $3,300,000
  13. Todd Gurley, RB: $3,141,632
  14. Aaron Donald, DT: $2,764,500
  15. Johnny Hekker, P: $2,595,995

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • Offensive coordinator: Retained Rob Boras, who took over job during 2015 season.
  • Offensive staff: Hired Bears WRs coach Mike Groh as WRs coach/passing game coordinator.

Draft:

  • No. 15 overall pick
  • Acquired second-round pick from Eagles in deal for QB Sam Bradford.
  • Lost fifth-round pick after using it in 2015 supplemental draft on T Isaiah Battle.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Texans in deal for QB Case Keenum.

Other:

Overview:

Last season, for the first time since 2009, the NFC West was not won by the Seahawks or 49ers. Unfortunately for the Rams, however, it was the Cardinals that broke the trend. The Rams finished out the year 7-9 and even though they didn’t reach the postseason, there were some distinct bright spots.

The big story of the year, of course, was the emergence of running back Todd Gurley. Gurley, the No. 10 overall pick in the 2015 draft, had to be eased into live action due to the ACL tear he suffered in his final collegiate season. Slowly but surely, Gurley was given more and more of the workload and, by the end of the year, Gurley looked like one of the game’s brightest young talents. In total, Gurley rushed for 1,106 yards, becoming the third rookie in team history to rush for 1,000+ yards in a season, putting him in the same company as Jerome Bettis and Eric Dickerson. "<strong

Of course, it wasn’t all roses. The Rams didn’t have a strong passing game to keep teams honest against Gurley, and the Rams’ star running back was seeing stacked boxes for much of the year. The Rams’ passing game suffered, in part, because of Nick Foles‘ struggles under center. Case Keenum took over the starting job later in the season – and is expected to keep it in 2016 – but he was also limited by the team’s porous offensive line. With an offense that couldn’t control the clock, the Rams’ injury-battered defense didn’t fare much better.

We’re still weeks away from the start of free agency but the Rams have already undergone plenty of change this offseason. Now that they’ll be making their home in Los Angeles, can the Rams win right off the bat and energize their new fan base?

Key Free Agents:

The Rams’ list of free agents is headlined by cornerback Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins, regarded by some as the second-best UFA cornerback this offseason, figures to draw a ton of interest if he hits the open market. In July, the Rams tried to talk extension with the cornerback, but he chose instead to bet on himself and it appears that gamble is about to pay off. In 2015, Jenkins played (and started) in 15 games, racking up 64 tackles, a career-high 15 pass deflections, and three interceptions.

Despite his impressive counting stats, Jenkins ranked as just the 26th-best cornerback in the NFL last year based on Pro Football Focus‘ metrics, putting him behind fellow UFAs Josh Norman, Sean Smith, Adam Jones, Casey Hayward, and teammate Trumaine Johnson. Then again, PFF has never been a big fan of Jenkins. In 2014, the advanced metrics cast Jenkins as a slightly below average cornerback with an overall score of -1.5 that placed him 50th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks. PFF had Jenkins at No. 61 among qualified corners in 2013 and No. 101 in his rookie year. Regardless of how the advanced stats view Jenkins, he appears to be in line for a big pay day at an average annual value of $7-8MM.

With Johnson also set to hit the open market, one has to wonder if the Rams are willing to invest significant money into both of their free agent cornerbacks. Right now, most onlookers expect the team to let one of the two talented corners go. Johnson earned an 82.2 overall grade from Pro Football Focus, placing him 19th among all corners in the NFL last season. Even though the advanced numbers have Johnson ranked ahead of Jenkins, conventional thinking hold Jenkins in higher esteem.

In December, Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap predicted that Johnson will command a deal with a $6MM AAV, roughly $2MM less per season than Jenkins. The Rams have the cap space to bring back both players, but if they’d rather not devote big money to the position, they may be more likely to keep Johnson than Jenkins. With Lamarcus Joyner and E.J. Gaines in the fold, the Rams can afford to let one of the two go elsewhere.

On top of Jenkins and Johnson, the Rams have a third starter in the secondary due for free agency. Safety Rodney McLeod entered the league as a UDFA in 2012 and over the last couple of years, the Rams have watched him blossom into one of the NFL’s better safeties. Last year, the Rams assigned McLeod a second-rounder RFA tender, giving him a 2015 salary of $2.356MM. This time around, it’ll cost significantly more to retain him. The 25-year-old (26 in June) started all 16 games in 2015, totaling 81 tackles, 5 pass deflections, three forced fumbles, and one interception.

Nick Fairley was expected to secure a hefty contract last offseason after a solid contract year with the Lions, but ultimately inked a one-year pact to join the Rams. The 28-year-old played in 15 games last season before being shut down, seeing time as a rotational lineman and playing slightly less than 40% of the club’s defensive snaps. The Rams are expected to discuss a new deal with Fairley, who is still reasonably young and productive (he graded as the league’s No. 24 interior lineman, per Pro Football Focus).

Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein – a.k.a. Young GZ – is on an expiring deal. Will he be retained? After a year in which he made just 20 of 30 field goals, it’s far from a certainty.

It will also be interesting to see what the Rams do with veteran wide receiver Wes Welker. Welker didn’t make a huge impact during his time in St. Louis but he says that he intends to continue his career in 2016 “as long as I feel good and am having fun.” With a move to Los Angeles coming up, Welker’s name value could have some extra importance to team ownership.

Speaking of wide receivers, Brian Quick is set to reach free agency for the first time in his career. The former second-round pick has yet to live up to the hype, but the Rams could hold on to the 26-year-old (27 in June) in hopes that he’ll blossom in gold and blue.

Finally, Case Keenum is a restricted free agent and Rams GM Les Snead has already stated that he won’t be going anywhere. Still, the team has a big decision to make this spring. The Rams could use a second-round tender to hold Keenum, but with a number of teams looking for a QB, Los Angeles might want to give itself a bit of extra insurance. The Rams could hit Keenum with a first-round tender, which would almost certainly discourage any rival suitors from making a run at him, and wouldn’t cost much more. In 2015, the first-round tender was worth $3.35MM, versus the ~$2.36MM second-round tender.

Possible Cap Casualties:

With a team-high cap number of $14.25MM, defensive end Chris Long appears to be a very likely cap casualty for the Rams. Long, 31 in March, has appeared in only 18 games over the last two seasons, putting up a grand total of 4.0 sacks and 24 tackles. The Rams will save $11.75MM if they cut Long with only $2.5MM in dead money against the cap. Still, Long does seem open to the possibility of a pay cut to remain with the franchise as it moves to Los Angeles. "<strong

“Of course I’m open to doing something like that,” Long said in January. “It’s not about the money at this point for me.”

Nick Foles lost his starting job in 2015, and while he may ultimately have a chance to win it back, head coach Jeff Fisher has anointed Keenum as his projected starting quarterback for 2016. With an $8.75MM cap number for the upcoming year, Foles’ roster spot now doesn’t look entirely safe.

After acquiring the veteran quarterback from the Eagles last offseason, the Rams signed him to an extension in August, locking him up through 2017. That deal calls for a guaranteed $6MM roster bonus, to be paid on the third day of the 2016 league year, which falls on March 11. If the Rams are confident that Foles will not be in their plans going forward, it would behoove them to either cut bait or trade him before 3/11. His trade value is not terribly high right now, but depending on who you ask, the Eagles might be interested.

Tight end Jared Cook has yet to live up to his monster contract and with a cap number of $8.3MM looming, it might make sense for the Rams to bail out on his deal. Luckily for L.A., all of Cook’s guaranteed money has been paid, so he could be released with minimal salary cap ramifications. Over the last three seasons, Cook has hauled in 142 receptions for 1,786 yards and eight touchdowns, but he does not offer elite production to match his high-end pay.

Cook has the fourth-highest cap number on the Rams this year and just behind him at No. 5 is linebacker James Laurinaitis. Laurinaitis isn’t necessarily pricey with a cap number of $6.4MM, but he does seem overpaid. Oft-injured offensive lineman Rodger Saffold carries a cap number of ~$5.65MM and could be on the chopping block. Dropping wide receiver Kenny Britt could alleviate the Rams of a $4.85MM commitment, but that would leave the team with even more question marks at the position.

Positions Of Need:

The Rams are saying that Keenum will be the main guy under center, but that’s probably not their ideal plan for 2016. Even if they roll with the soon-to-be 28-year-old, the Rams will have to figure out a better long-term solution at QB. Thanks to their middle-of-the-pack finish in 2015, the Rams likely won’t be in the mix for the likes of Jared Goff or Carson Wentz without a trade that moves them up significant from the No. 15 pick."<strong

The free agent market at QB could be headlined by Sam Bradford, who is unlikely to receive the franchise tag from the Eagles. Bradford, who came to the Eagles in the trade that sent Foles to the Rams, struggled out of the gate in his first season in Philly, though he did play much better in the second half of the year as he grew more comfortable in Chip Kelly‘s offense. A reunion between the Rams and Bradford would make some sense, particularly because the veteran is already familiar with Fisher’s offense.

The open market could also feature the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kirk Cousins, and Brock Osweiler. All three quarterbacks are worth consideration for a team in need of a signal-caller, but they are not especially glamorous options for the L.A. market. Could the Rams instead make a play for one of the greatest QBs in the history of the game? Peyton Manning is, obviously, not what he once was, but he would represent a major splash for the Rams as they enter the nation’s No. 2 media market. Prior to the Super Bowl, it was reported that the Rams have discussed Manning internally. A few weeks after the big game, however, it sounds like Manning is more likely to retire than take the field again.

Aside from quarterback, the Rams will have to address the wide receiver position, especially since things will be fluid heading into the offseason. As mentioned earlier, Brian Quick is due to hit the open market and Kenny Britt could be cut loose without any real financial penalty. Even if one or both players return to the Rams, it’s clear that the team will have to add another receiver alongside the speedy Tavon Austin. Unfortunately for L.A., however, the wide receiver market isn’t very strong outside of Alshon Jeffery, and the Bears might lock him down in the next couple of weeks. Other free agent options include Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones of the Bengals and Jermaine Kearse of the Seahawks. If the Rams want to make a low-risk, high-reward type of addition, they could target Giants receiver Rueben Randle.

The Rams’ pass rush was weak in 2015 and they’ll have to address the front seven. That need only increases when considering that both Long and Laurinaitis are potential cap casualties. The Rams specifically need to address the linebacker position and it’s not clear if they’ll have the financial flexibility to land someone like Seahawks linebacker Bruce Irvin.

Gurley was deadly, at times, in 2015 , but he was bottled up in some games thanks to a mediocre offensive line. Starting interior linemen Rodger Saffold and Jamon Brown had to be placed on IR and left tackle Greg Robinson has been shaky. The Rams can be expected to target a guard this spring, but the club’s whole offensive line should be closely examined. If Rodney McLeod goes, the Rams will also have to figure out an alternative at safety.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

The Rams picked up Michael Brockers’ option for 2016, worth $6.146MM. The Rams could seek to hammer out an extension with him that will keep him in Los Angeles in 2017 and beyond. As the Rams learned prior to the 2015 season when teams were buzzing with trade interest, Brockers will draw several eager suitors if he hits the open market.

Brockers, 25, has been a staple of the Rams’ defensive line since being taken with the No. 14 pick in the 2012 draft. The defensive tackle totaled just 32 tackles and 2.0 sacks in 2014 but he saw an uptick in 2015 with 3.0 sacks and 45 total tackles. For what it’s worth, however, the advanced metrics at PFF (sub. req’d) rated him as the 28th-best DT in the league last season. That put him in a virtual tie with 49ers lineman Arik Armstead who, by most evaluations, was underwhelming in his rookie season.

Overall Outlook:

The Rams love L.A. like Randy Newman, but will the city of Los Angeles love them back? The Rams will get lots of love upon making their L.A. return, but the honeymoon won’t last long if they can’t win.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

February 15th, 2016 at 9:19pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Gerald McCoy, DT: $13,000,000
  2. Vincent Jackson, WR: $12,209,778
  3. Lavonte David, OLB: $10,000,000
  4. Logan Mankins, G: $7,000,000
  5. Alterraun Verner, CB: $6,750,000
  6. Jameis Winston, QB: $5,761,654
  7. Gosder Cherilus, T: $4,500,000
  8. Bruce Carter, OLB: $4,250,000
  9. Mike Evans, WR: $3,990,410
  10. Joe Hawley, C: $3,500,000
  11. Clinton McDonald, DT: $3,250,000
  12. Evan Smith, C: $2,500,000
  13. George Johnson, DE: $2,000,000
  14. Brandon Myers, TE: $1,916,668
  15. Demar Dotson, T: $1,750,000

Notable coaching/front office changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

Any season that ends with a team firing its head coach is usually regarded as a failure for that club, but the Buccaneers took steps toward relevance during the 2015 campaign. The Bucs improved from 2-14 to 6-10, bettered their point differential by 58, and may have found a legitimate franchise quarterback for the first time in their history.

Tampa’s progress wasn’t enough to save head coach Lovie Smith, whom general manager Jason Licht sent packing after the team closed the season with three straight losses. Even though Smith went an ugly 8-24 in his two seasons at the helm, his firing came as somewhat of a surprise. Conversely, the Bucs didn’t shock anyone by choosing Smith’s offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter, to take over his ex-boss’ job.

The 57-year-old Koetter worked as the Buccaneers’ OC for just one season, but the unit made clear strides on his Dirk Koetter (vertical)watch. After finishing 29th, 30th and 32nd in points, yardage and DVOA in 2014, the Bucs rose to 20th, fifth and 18th in those three categories last season.

Koetter, whose only previous head coaching experience came in the college ranks (he went a combined 66-44 at Boise State and Arizona State from 1998-2008), also helped guide rookie quarterback Jameis Winston to a terrific showing. Last year’s first overall pick started all 16 of the Bucs’ games, tossed 22 touchdowns against 15 interceptions, and became the youngest QB in NFL history (21) to eclipse the 4,000-yard mark.

Koetter will continue to call the offensive plays in Tampa, but he’ll have assistance on that side of the ball from new coordinator Todd Monken. Like Koetter, Monken has experience as a college head coach, having spent the last three seasons in that role with Southern Mississippi. Monken’s familiarity with Koetter undoubtedly helped lead to his hiring — the two were on the Jaguars’ staff from 2007-10 (Koetter was the offensive coordinator, Monken the receivers coach).

Koetter also has prior ties to newly hired defensive coordinator Mike Smith, who was the Falcons’ head coach from 2008-14. Koetter ran the Atlanta offense during the final three years of Smith’s tenure, and the two were also on Jacksonville’s staff together in 2007. Smith will take over a Bucs defense that finished last season under his predecessor Leslie Frazier as a top-10 unit in terms of yardage allowed, but just 18th in DVOA and 26th in points.

While Licht and the Koetter-led coaching staff obviously hope to break the Buccaneers’ eight-year playoff drought next season, the organization won’t do anything rash in an effort to better its chances. Licht said last week that the Bucs will be “selective and strategic” in free agency, adding that “the best way for us to go is to draft and develop players.”

If Licht is to be believed, that means the Bucs won’t splurge this offseason with the nearly $50MM they currently have in cap space. However, they should still be able to add some useful veterans and further bolster their roster through the draft, in which they have the ninth overall selection and two more picks in the top 75.

Key Free Agents:

"<strongRunning back Doug Martin is far and away the most significant pending free agent Tampa has. In theory, the Bucs could’ve avoided this predicament by picking up Martin’s fifth-year option for 2016 last offseason, but it appeared at the time they did the right thing in declining it. The franchise made its decision when Martin was coming off back-to-back subpar seasons, so it looked as if his explosive rookie year (1,900-plus total yards, 12 touchdowns) was a fluke.

To virtually everyone’s surprise, Martin returned to his first-year form last season, eclipsing the 1,400-yard rushing mark for the second time while establishing a new yards-per-carry high (4.9) and adding seven TDs. Martin also made his second Pro Bowl and earned first-team All-Pro honors, and he’ll now look to cash in as a 27-year-old. If Martin has it his way, his next deal will come from the Bucs.

“I love Tampa and Tampa loves me,” he told Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. “I’ve got a house out there so I do wish I’ll go back to Tampa.”

The club has had “great discussions” with Martin’s camp, Licht told the Tampa Bay Times’ Rick Stroud, who reports that the league’s reigning second-leading rusher is “hoping to hit the jackpot.” Martin could indeed hit the jackpot, as Roy Cummings of the Tampa Tribune wrote in January that his bounce-back effort might lead to a contract similar to the five-year, $42MM deal Philadelphia signed DeMarco Murray to last offseason.

With the franchise tag price of just under $12MM perhaps too steep a total, it’s fair to say the Bucs’ best chance to keep Martin from exploring the free agent market on March 9 is by way of a long-term accord. The question is: Are they confident enough to give that kind of a contract to a player who has had such a a boom-or-bust career? If anyone can afford to take a gamble of that caliber, it’s a cap space-rich team like the Bucs.

Aside from Martin, Tampa isn’t exactly overflowing with notable free agents-to-be. The best of the rest are on defense, where cornerback Sterling Moore leads an unspectacular unrestricted class that also features tackle Henry Melton and safety Chris Conte. All three signed one-year deals to join the Buccaneers last winter.

Moore started in nine of 16 appearances and led Bucs corners in defensive snap percentage (64.9) and pass breakups (six), and added three forced fumbles and a pick. Whether the 26-year-old will stay in Tampa could depend on how he feels about the new coaching staff.

“I came here because I felt comfortable in the system, so that’s obviously something that goes into things, but it’s all about the coaching staff and where I feel comfortable,” he told Rick Brown of ESPN.com before the team fired Lovie Smith.

Melton played under Smith in Chicago from 2009-12 and made the Pro Bowl in their last season together with the Bears, but he hasn’t been the same player since. As a reserve lineman last season, the 29-year-old finished as Pro Football Focus’ 101st-ranked interior defender (123 qualifiers). The site (subscription required) graded him below average among interior pass rushers and toward the bottom as a run defender. If the Bucs let him go, he shouldn’t be hard to replace. Should they keep him, look for another one-year pact, but a lower cap hit than last season’s $3.75MM would be expected.

Like Melton, Conte was an ex-Bear who reunited with Smith last season. Unlike Melton, Conte fared well for the Bucs, starting 13 of 14 appearances and totaling 79 tackles, three interceptions and two forced fumbles. Although Conte’s output netted him a solid 32nd-place ranking out of 88 qualifying safeties at PFF, Licht doesn’t sound fully committed to re-signing him as he goes into his age-27 season.

“Chris Conte did some good things for us and he has a familiarity with (fellow secondary coach) Jon Hoke, who was his coach in Chicago,’’ Licht said, according to Stroud. “We will be discussing the possibility of bringing him back, but we still like Bradley McDougald, who we think has upside and we still have Major Wright under contract and we liked what Keith Tandy did in his role for us last year. But it can’t hurt to bring in competition.’’

It’s worth mentioning that two of the players Licht named, McDougald and Tandy, aren’t currently under contract. McDougald, who started 15 games last season but didn’t grade out nearly as well as Conte (65th), is a restricted free agent, so the Bucs shouldn’t have much trouble bringing him back. Tandy is unrestricted, though re-upping him won’t cost much after he played just 25.9 percent of the Bucs’ defensive snaps last season.

Possible Cap Casualties:

When combining the Bucs’ abundance of spending room with Licht’s acknowledgment that they’re not necessarily looking to use much of it, there isn’t a crying need for the team to ax anyone for cap reasons. Still, it’s worth noting that 12 Bucs whose cap hits range from $1.33MM to $7MM can all be cut without the team incurring any dead money in 2016.
The least expensive of the group is kicker Connor Barth, whose job doesn’t appear safe. The Bucs worked out four kickers Friday, Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times tweeted, so it looks as though they’re searching for an upgrade. Barth, who was a Buc from 2009-12, rejoined the team when it released Kyle Brindza in October. In 12 games, Barth hit 23 of 28 field goals (82.1 percent, which ranked 23rd out of 32 qualifying kickers) and 25 of 26 extra points.
If the Bucs were anywhere near the cap, using over $33MM of space on receiver Vincent Jackson, cornerback Alterraun Verner, linebacker Bruce Carter, offensive tackle Gosder Cherilus, and centers Joe Hawley and Evan Dietrich-Smith would be problematic. Given their cap situation, though, they probably aren’t in a hurry to let any of them go.
Jackson will definitely return, per Stroud, and Licht told Pewter Report in January that Verner will get a chance for a fresh start in Mike Smith’s defense.

Positions Of Need:

"<strongDefensively, Tampa could look to augment both its pass rush and secondary. The Bucs were middle of the pack in sacks last season with 38, but none of their edge rushers had more than seven.

If the team addresses the area through free agency, one name that comes to mind is a controversial one: Greg Hardy. While the soon-to-be 28-year-old’s off-field behavior has been abhorrent, the fact is that he’s a quality pass rusher many teams would covet if not for his character issues.

As a Cowboy, Hardy recorded a decent six sacks in 12 games last season – which wasn’t as prolific as his 11- and 15-sack totals with Carolina in 2012 and ’13 – and ranked No. 28 among 110 edge defenders at PFF.

Considering the baggage that come with Hardy, he shouldn’t get either a long-term deal or an overly expensive one, which would work in the Buccaneers’ favor if they were to pursue him. The Bucs were in the Hardy sweepstakes a year ago, with ESPN’s Adam Schefter reporting that they went so far as to draw up a contract structure for him (Twitter link via Stroud), so there’s already a built-in connection between the two sides. Granted, Hardy went on to become a headache for a Cowboys team that won’t re-sign him, meaning there’s no guarantee Licht will have interest in him this time around.

Licht could, however, have interest in Mario Williams, who will be on the market soon if the Bills release him. That’s expected to happen, as the 31-year-old didn’t fit into Rex Ryan‘s defense last season and is set to count an exorbitant amount against the Bills’ cap in 2016 if they don’t cut ties. Williams, who is one season removed from a career-best 14.5-sack performance, is a good bet to land with a team that uses a 4-3 scheme. If he comes at a reasonable rate, it’s conceivable that team could be the Buccaneers.

If the free agent pass-rushing market doesn’t intrigue Licht, he’ll turn to the draft for help. In his latest mock draft, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report has the Bucs taking Eastern Kentucky’s Noah Spence in the first round. Spence comes with off-the-field red flags, but Miller calls him “the most talented edge rusher in this year’s class.”

The Bucs allowed the fourth-most TD passes (31) and the second-highest passer rating (101.2) in the league last season, which points to weaknesses in their defensive backfield. With the possibility of losing Moore, Conte, Tandy and fellow UFA Mike Jenkins, the need for the team to strengthen its secondary is further magnified. The door hasn’t closed on a Conte comeback, and Licht is a fan of McDougald, Wright and Tandy, so it’s not a sure thing that he’ll bring in outside safety help. Corner should be a different story, however, regardless of whether the team re-signs Moore, Jenkins or both.

In the event the Bucs are willing to open their wallets for the short term, the likes of Adam Jones (Bengals), Leon Hall (Bengals) and William Gay (Steelers) could be names to watch. Unlike those three 30-somethings, Prince Amukamara (Giants) and Patrick Robinson are still in their 20s, and either would improve the Bucs’ secondary without the club having to fork over huge money.

As far as the draft goes, if Licht is open to grabbing a corner at No. 9, Clemson’s Mackensie Alexander and Florida’s Vernon Hargreaves III are surely on his radar. Miller currently projects the two to go eighth and 12th, respectively, right in the vicinity of Tampa’s selection.

On the offensive side, the Bucs should find themselves in the market for running back help if Martin departs. They do have Charles Sims waiting in the wings, though. Sims, who will turn 26 in September, averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 107 attempts and put up impressive receiving numbers (51 catches, 11.0 yards per reception, four touchdowns) last season.

It’s possible the Bucs are more comfortable with Sims as a third-down specialist than as a workhorse. If so, a pending free agent he might serve as a good complement to is the Jets’ Chris Ivory, a bruiser with a career 4.6 YPC. Ivory is coming off his first thousand-yard season, one in which multi-threat Bilal Powell spelled him on third downs (as Sims would do in Tampa), and is expected to carry a much lower price tag than Martin.

Elsewhere, nothing really stands out as a gaping short-term hole in the Bucs’ offense. The line allowed the fourth-fewest sacks in the league last season (27) and helped lead Martin, Sims and the rest of the team’s runners to a league-best 4.8 per-rush average.

The unit has two over-30 tackles in Cherilus and Demar Dotson, but it also has a 22-year-old, Donovan Smith, who was a second-rounder in 2015 and started all 16 games as a rookie. Guard Ali Marpet was also a second-rounder last year, and he started in each of his 13 appearances. Marpet is entrenched as a starter going forward, but the other guard spot could become an issue if the highly effective Logan Mankins retires, which he’s considering. However, there won’t be any shortage of above-average stopgaps available in free agency if Mankins does walk away. Richie Incognito (Bills), Evan Mathis (Broncos) and Chris Chester (Falcons) are among the possibilities.

The Bucs like their receiving corps, according to Scott Reynolds of Pewter Report, but will add at least one more for depth purposes. That suggests they’ll look for a low-cost wideout in free agency or use a mid-round pick on one.

As mentioned earlier, the Bucs don’t seem content with their kicking situation. The market is unlikely to offer many definite upgrades over Barth, however. Josh Brown (Giants), Mason Crosby (Packers), Justin Tucker (Ravens) and Adam Vinatieri (Colts) are the best of the pending free agent lot. While all are superior to Barth, none are great bets to become free agents. Tucker, for one, won’t hit the market, with the Ravens planning to either sign him or tag him (Twitter link via Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun). The Colts, meanwhile, intend to keep Vinatieri.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

The Buccaneers could make adjustments to the contracts of Vincent Jackson and Logan Mankins, if he doesn’t retire, per Stroud. Jackson will count ~$12.21MM against the club’s cap next season, while Mankins will bring a $7MM hit.

Vincent Jackson (vertical)Although he missed six games last season and only caught 33 passes and three TDs, Jackson still averaged 16.5 yards per reception – his highest mark since 2012 – and might merit a short-term extension.

A comparable the Bucs could look to if they do try to get something done with Jackson is Andre Johnson, who signed a three-year, $21MM contract with the Colts last offseason. Johnson’s contract includes $10MM in guarantees and cap hits of $7.5MM last season and next season and $6MM in the final year. Johnson, then entering his age-34 season (Jackson is 33), experienced a decline in production before inking the deal as a free agent – he averaged 11.0 yards per catch, his second-worst career total, and pulled in 85 catches (24 fewer than the prior season).

Jackson, while still a big-play threat, was on a 53-catch pace pre-injury last season. That would’ve been his lowest full-season total since 2011. He amassed at least 70 receptions in each season from 2012-14.

Even though he’s a backup quarterback, Mike Glennon is an extension candidate for Tampa as he goes into the last year of his deal.

“Mike Glennon is just so valuable to us right now while we have him, while he’s under contract, I feel like we have two starting quarterbacks with him and Jameis,” Licht told Reynolds.

To extend Glennon could cost the Bucs upward of $7MM in guaranteed money, according to Stroud. The 26-year-old was a third-rounder in 2013 and has since made 19 appearances (18 starts), completing ~59 percent of passes for 4,000-plus yards, 29 TDs and 15 INTs.

Overall Outlook:

With the conference champion Panthers occupying a place in the NFC South, the Buccaneers probably aren’t going to threaten for a division title next season. However, if they’re able to make some meaningful defensive improvements this offseason and Winston takes another step forward in 2016, the franchise’s first .500-plus campaign since 2010 wouldn’t be an unreasonable expectation.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2016 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates

February 15th, 2016 at 10:27am CST by Luke Adams

On Tuesday, February 16th, NFL teams will be able to place franchise and transition tags on potential free agents for the first time. While the window for franchise tags opens at that point, most clubs won’t actually tag any players right away.

As our list of important dates for the 2016 offseason shows, the deadline for teams to assign those franchise and transition tags comes two weeks later, on Tuesday, March 1st. Generally when it comes to NFL contract discussions, deadlines spur action, so teams will likely wait until closer to that March deadline to officially use franchise tags, once it becomes clear that they won’t be able to strike a longer-term deal yet with their respective free-agents-to-be.

Even though the action might not heat up for a couple more weeks, it’s worth taking a closer look at what to expect during 2016’s franchise tag period. We don’t know yet what the exact salary amounts for franchise tags will be, since the NFL has yet to announce the salary cap figure for the coming year. But back in November, former agent Joel Corry of CBSSports.com projected the 2016 franchise tag salaries, based on a presumed cap of $154MM. Here are the non-exclusive franchise tag amounts projected by Corry:

  • Quarterback: $19.748MM
  • Running back: $11.871MM
  • Wide receiver: $14.527MM
  • Tight end: $9.053MM
  • Offensive line: $13.678MM
  • Defensive end: $15.494MM
  • Defensive tackle: $13.368MM
  • Linebacker: $14.131MM
  • Cornerback: $13.838MM
  • Safety: $10.717MM
  • Punter/kicker: $4.534MM

Those numbers are unlikely to be 100% accurate, but the actual figures won’t be drastically different, so we can use them as points of reference when considering which players are candidates to be franchised in 2016.

For a refresher on the characteristics of the exclusive and non-exclusive franchise tags, as well as the transition tag, be sure to check out PFR’s glossary entry on the subject. Once you’re up to speed, let’s dive in and take a look at the most likely candidates to be tagged, along with several more outside possibilities….

Virtual locks:Von Miller

Broncos pass rusher Von Miller was viewed as the top player in this year’s group of potential free agents even before he terrorized Cam Newton in Santa Clara and earned Super Bowl MVP honors. Now, there’s no doubt that Denver will do all it can to retain the former second overall pick. The only questions for Miller are whether he’ll reach a long-term deal with the Broncos before the club needs to franchise him, and whether he’d get the exclusive or non-exclusive tag.

Panthers cornerback Josh Norman didn’t make the same impact in Super Bowl 50 that Miller did, but Carolina still seems likely to franchise him to avoid letting him hit the open market. The franchise tag for cornerbacks is projected to be worth nearly $14MM, but the Panthers are in better cap shape than they have been in recent years, and can afford to take the hit.

Meanwhile, it has been a few years since a quarterback was franchised, but Washington signal-caller Kirk Cousins is a strong candidate. Reports have indicated the team won’t let him get away, but the two sides apparently aren’t close to a multiyear agreement, which makes the franchise tag the most logical option at this point.

Strong candidates:

A year or two ago, Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery would have been a no-brainer candidate for the franchise tag. However, 2015 was an up-and-down season for Jeffery, who only played in nine games due to injury issues. When he did play, Jeffery was excellent, averaging a career-high 89.7 yards per game, and few teams have more projected cap room this offseason than Chicago, so it seems unlikely that the team would let the wideout get away — especially given how weak the market for receivers is this year, outside of Jeffery.

The Jets are facing an interesting predicament on their defensive line with Damon Harrison and Muhammad Wilkerson eligible for free agency this winter. Harrison isn’t a franchise tag candidate, and the Jets could conceivably re-sign him at a reasonable price, then move forward with a defensive line of Harrison, Sheldon Richardson, and Leonard Williams. However, letting an asset like Wilkerson get away for nothing isn’t great business, which is why he has been viewed as an intriguing tag-and-trade candidate for New York.

Elsewhere in the AFC East, the Bills and Dolphins don’t have a ton of cap flexibility, which could affect their decisions on offensive tackle Cordy Glenn and defensive end Olivier Vernon, respectively. There are ways for Buffalo and Miami to create the space necessary to tag their free-agents-to-be, but Eric Berryboth teams already have plenty of highly-paid veterans on their books, so the decisions aren’t no-brainers. I think Glenn, at least, is slightly more likely than not to be tagged, but both players could conceivably reach the open market.

Safety Eric Berry had a tremendous comeback season in 2015, and it would put something of a damper on that story for the Chiefs to allow him to sign elsewhere next month. A $10MM+ price tag for a safety isn’t cheap, but it’s a more affordable tag than most positions, so I think Kansas City will have to strongly consider using it if the team can’t agree on a longer-term contract with Berry. As last year’s negotiations with Justin Houston showed, the Chiefs aren’t afraid to franchise a player, then work out a multiyear pact with him later in the offseason.

One position that’s significantly cheaper than safety is kicker, where Corry projects a salary in the $4.5MM range. The Ravens and Justin Tucker have reportedly been negotiating a potential extension for over a year, but with the franchise deadline approaching, the team isn’t afraid to use a tag on Tucker, if it comes to that.

Long shots:

The Jets want to extend Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Eagles have spoken highly of Sam Bradford, but it appears unlikely that either quarterback will get franchised. At least one report has indicated that the Eagles aren’t expected to use their franchise tag to retain Bradford, and a price tag of nearly $20MM seems too high for Fitzpatrick.

Like Fitzpatrick, Buccaneers running back Doug Martin is a player whose team badly wants to re-sign him, but may view the franchise tag salary as too high. For running backs, the tag could be worth nearly $12MM, which would make Martin the second-highest-paid RB in the NFL – behind Adrian Peterson – by a comfortable margin. For a player who has been as inconsistent as Martin, that seems excessive.

A handful of offensive linemen are possible candidates to be tagged by their respective teams, including Kelechi Osemele (Ravens), Russell Okung (Seahawks), Mitchell Schwartz (Browns), Kelvin Beachum (Steelers), and Andre Smith (Bengals). However, I’d be a little surprised if even one of those five got the franchise tag. Since there’s only one price tag for all offensive linemen, the projected salary ($13.678MM) is left-tackle money, and Osemele, Schwartz, and Smith haven’t seen much – if any – playing time at left tackle. As for Okung and Beachum, I’m skeptical that their teams will want to invest too heavily in them, since they haven’t been consistently healthy and elite in recent years.

If the Broncos strike a long-term deal with Miller soon, it would free up the franchise tag for quarterback Brock Osweiler or defensive end Malik Jackson. Even in the unlikely event that Miller and the Broncos agree to terms quickly though, the franchise salaries for Osweiler and Jackson may be a little too high.

Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul got the franchise tag last year, but it’ll be pricier this season, and obviously there are more question marks this time around, given the state of his right hand. As such, I don’t think he’s a real candidate to be tagged, despite New York’s significant cap space. Bengals safety Reggie Nelson seems like a similar long-shot — he had another good season in 2015, earning his first Pro Bowl nod, but it would be surprising to see a team commit $10MM+ to a 33-year-old safety.

Finally, Tucker isn’t the only kicker or punter who has a shot to be tagged. Jaguars punter Bryan Anger, Raiders punter Marquette King, and Packers kicker Mason Crosby are among the other special teams candidates. They’re all less likely than Tucker to be franchised, but the Jags and Raiders have the most cap room in the NFL, so they could certainly afford it.

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