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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Eagles

February 14th, 2016 at 9:55pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Jason Peters, T: $9,737,500
  2. Byron Maxwell, CB: $9,700,000
  3. Lane Johnson, T: $8,128,388
  4. DeMarco Murray, RB: $8,000,000
  5. Fletcher Cox, DT: $7,799,000
  6. Connor Barwin, DE/OLB: $7,350,000
  7. Malcolm Jenkins, S: $7,166,668
  8. Mark Sanchez, QB: $5,500,000
  9. Jason Kelce, C: $5,200,000
  10. Brandon Graham, DE: $5,000,000
  11. Mychal Kendricks, ILB: $4,600,000
  12. DeMeco Ryans, ILB: $4,500,000
  13. Darren Sproles, RB: $4,500,000
  14. Ryan Mathews, RB: $4,000,000
  15. Zach Ertz, TE: $3,311,563

Notable coaching/front office changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

In his first two seasons with the Eagles, Chip Kelly contradicted the notion that an innovative college coach can’t take his act to the NFL and succeed. While the Eagles only appeared in one playoff game during those years – a 26-24 loss to New Orleans in January 2014 – they went 20-13 overall and were one of just seven teams that amassed double-digit victories in both seasons. Kelly then made the mistake of taking control of the Eagles’ roster last offseason and his tenure in Philadelphia began its swift descent off the proverbial cliff.

Critics spent months deriding the out-of-the-box moves made by Kelly, who was either going to prove his detractors right or cement himself as a genius during the 2015-16 campaign. Unfortunately for Kelly, his methods backfired and, after he guided the Eagles to a 6-9 record as part of the subpar NFC East, the team canned the mad scientist with one game left in the season.

Thanks to Kelly’s departure, the Eagles’ front office is back in the hands of executive vice president of football operations Doug Pederson (vertical)Howie Roseman, with whom Kelly had an adversarial relationship. Roseman and the rest of Eagles brass embarked on a multi-week search for Kelly’s replacement and chose Doug Pederson after failing to reel in either Ben McAdoo or Tom Coughlin.

Pederson, previously the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator, played and coached in Philly in the past, and his third stint with the Eagles got off to a positive start with the hiring of two accomplished coordinators in Jim Schwartz and Frank Reich.

Schwartz last coached in 2014, when he coordinated the Bills’ defense to a fourth-place finish and a league-high 54 sacks. It’s worth noting that, despite having mostly the same personnel, Buffalo’s defense disintegrated sans Schwartz last season, finishing 19th overall and plummeting to 31st in sacks. The Eagles have some enviable pieces on defense and Schwartz figures to get the most out of them as he transitions the unit from the 3-4 base used under predecessor Billy Davis to a 4-3.

One of the Eagles’ defensive stalwarts, edge rusher Vinny Curry, signed a five-year, $47.25MM on Feb. 2 and implied afterward he’d have tested the free agent market in March if not for the change from Davis’ scheme to Schwartz’s (Twitter link via Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Curry also expressed confidence that a long-term deal is coming for fellow lineman Fletcher Cox, who has one year left on his contract. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked Cox as a top-10 interior defender last season, and he’s primed to become even more monstrous in Schwartz’s defense.

In addition to trading up from Davis to Schwartz, it should benefit Curry, Cox and their defensive cohorts that they presumably won’t be on the field nearly as much as they were during the era of Kelly’s fast-paced offense. Exhibit A: Thanks in part to an offense that was worst in the NFL in time of possession, the Eagles accumulated the most defensive plays in the league last season (1,148). That contributed to their horrid rankings in yardage (30th) and points (28th) allowed.

Speaking of offense, while Reich hasn’t had Schwartz-like success as a coordinator, he’s still a solid pickup for Pederson’s staff. The Chargers’ offense was above average – 10th and 15th, respectively – in Football Outsiders’ DVOA during Reich’s two seasons running it. Reich won’t call the plays with the Eagles, however. That responsibility will instead lie with Pederson, who will take on a role that belonged almost exclusively to Andy Reid when Pederson was in Kansas City. Still, Pederson had a hand in the success of a Chiefs offense that ended last season sixth in both DVOA and rushing, despite losing elite running back Jamaal Charles to injury in the early going.

Since late December, Philadelphia has turned over its coaching staff and awarded contract extensions that could be worth upward of $160MM to Curry, tight ends Zach Ertz and Brent Celek, and offensive tackle Lane Johnson. If things go according to plan for the Eagles during the next several months, they’ll lock up Cox, strengthen the remainder of their roster, and find a personnel chief to join their Roseman-led front office.

Key Free Agents:

Five players who started at least 11 games for the Eagles last season are currently without contracts. The most prominent of the bunch is easily quarterback Sam Bradford, whom Kelly acquired from the Rams last winter in a deal that sent QB Nick Foles and a second-round pick to St. Louis.

In his first (and only?) season with the Eagles, Bradford started 14 games – his most since 2012 – and established new career highs in completion percentage (65.0), yards (3,725) and yards per attempt (7.00). He also tossed 19 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. Bradford was particularly effective from November onward, connecting on better than 68 percent of attempts while totaling 10 TDs and four picks.

"<strongThe question now is whether the Eagles want to continue with Bradford, who is a good bet to get a raise over the ~$13MM he made last season. For his part, Roseman said earlier this month that “everything is positive about Sam” (link via Berman). Before that, Pederson stated at his introductory press conference that Bradford is “a top-notch quarterback” who “would fit perfectly” in his offense (link via Dave Zangaro of CSNPhilly.com). All of that could be lip service, of course, and it’s no sure thing that Bradford even wants to go forth as an Eagle.

Peter King of TheMMQB.com reported in January that Bradford “isn’t crazy about Philadelphia” as a city, which could lead him to test the market. That won’t be an option if the Eagles apply the estimated $20MM franchise tag to Bradford, a possibility that ESPN’s Adam Schefter has shot down (Twitter link). Both Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer and Les Bowen of the Philadelphia Daily News have since contradicted Schefter, tweeting (links: 1, 2) that the Eagles haven’t ruled out tagging Bradford.

If the two sides wish to stay together, a short-term contract would clearly be the best route for the Eagles to take. Bradford hasn’t shown he’s worth big money over the long haul, as inconsistency and various injuries have beset his career since he went No. 1 in the 2010 draft. CBS Sports’ Joel Corry told PhillyMag.com last month that Bradford could be amenable to a one-year deal, while Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap wrote in November that a two-year accord worth nearly $30MM might be enough. More realistic, perhaps, is Spotrac’s projection of three years in the $56MM range. In terms of annual value, that would put Bradford in company with Ryan Tannehill, Colin Kaepernick and Jay Cutler. Like Bradford, those three have been much closer to average than great during their careers.

The remainder of the Eagles’ priority free agents are on defense: Lineman Cedric Thornton, cornerback Nolan Carroll and safety Walter Thurmond all scheduled to hit the market next month.

Thornton, who has started in all 45 of his appearances with the Eagles the past three years, will probably have to shift from 3-4 end to 4-3 tackle if he wants to remain with the team. That isn’t necessarily a deal-breaker, though, as the 27-year-old began his career with the Eagles in ex-coordinator Jim Washburn‘s 4-3 in 2012. Moreover, the Washburn-led Eagles lined up in a “wide nine,” which Schwartz has also utilized.

When the Eagles hired Schwartz, he praised their front seven personnel and mentioned Thornton (link via Bowen), so the change in scheme shouldn’t rule out his return. However, the Eagles could have a difficult time keeping Thornton because of the expected position switch. There’s a chance Thornton will get more money elsewhere to serve as a starting end in a 3-4 than as a presumed reserve tackle in the Eagles’ 4-3.

Carroll’s future in Philadelphia is in jeopardy because of the presence of Eric Rowe, whom the club could promote to full-time starter opposite Byron Maxwell. Rowe, a second-round pick last spring, took the reins from Carroll in November after the latter broke his leg. If the Eagles liked what they saw and think Rowe deserves to continue as a starter, that might seal Carroll’s fate. Carroll, who made $2.9MM in 2015-16, started in all 11 of his appearances, picked off two passes and ranked as PFF’s 53rd-best corner (111 qualifiers).

Arguably of greater importance than both Thornton and Carroll is Thurmond, who proved to be an excellent buy-low investment by the Eagles. After signing a one-year deal, Thurmond moved from corner – where he spent the first five seasons of his career – to safety and proceeded to start all 16 of the Eagles’ games while playing just under 99 percent of their defensive snaps. The 28-year-old also intercepted a career-high three passes and finished as PFF’s 26th-best safety (88 qualifiers). As a result, odds are Thurmond won’t have to settle for a third straight single-year contract (he previously signed one in 2014 with the Giants). With a raise on the way, Thurmond expects to be one and done in Philly.

“They only have $17MM in cap space. Economically it doesn’t make sense for them. I would love to be here. I love playing here. But that’s the way it is,” he told Bob Grotz of the Delaware County Daily Times in January.

While Thurmond isn’t hopeful about continuing with the Eagles, the team will try to re-sign him, according to Geoff Mosher of 97.5 The Fanatic (Twitter link).

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Eagles racked up their first cap casualty of 2016 with the recent pink slip given to receiver Riley Cooper, whose exit saves them $2.9MM this year.

The team could also conceivably cut running back DeMarco Murray, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported earlier this month. "<strongThat wouldn’t benefit the Eagles financially, however, as releasing Murray prior to June 1 would leave them with $13MM of dead cap this year. If they designate him a post-June 1 cut, he’d still eat up $8MM of their cap.

In response to Rapoport’s notion that Murray and the Eagles “are headed toward a stare-down,” Murray expressed his commitment to the club. After signing a five-year, $42MM deal last winter to leave the Cowboys for the Eagles, Murray failed to fit into Kelly’s offense. Compared to Murray’s final year in Dallas, his carries dropped by 199, his yardage fell by 1,100-plus, and he averaged 1.1 fewer yards per rush and scored six fewer touchdowns.

Given that Kelly is gone and Murray’s contract is an anvil, it would seemingly make sense for the Eagles to let him have another shot next season and hope he can regain something resembling his prior form. Murray, 28, is only one season removed from earning AP Offensive Player of the Year honors.

With Murray in the fold, the Eagles are on their way to dedicating an excessive amount of cap next season – $16.5MM, to be exact – to their top three running backs. They’d be able to recoup $3.5MM of that total by sending Darren Sproles packing. That could be a long shot, though, given that Sproles is a dual threat on offense and has made back-to-back Pro Bowls as a returner. Still, Sproles will soon turn 33 and saw most of his numbers decline from the previous year.

An even bigger long shot is releasing longtime left tackle Jason Peters, who currently has the largest cap hit on the team. While the Eagles stand to save a significant amount by moving on from the eight-time Pro Bowler (over $6.7MM pre-June 1 or $8.7MM+ after), it’s doubtful they will. The 33-year-old is out of his prime, but he’s still a terrific player. Pederson agrees, having spoken highly of Peters last month.

“I think J.P.’s got several good years left in him,” he told Reuben Frank of CSNPhilly.com. “I think that he does the right things in the offseason to get himself ready to go for another year.”

It’s safe to say linebacker DeMeco Ryans is at greater risk of losing his roster spot than anyone listed above. The soon-to-be 32-year-old is valued in Philly for his veteran leadership, but his play has tailed off and cutting him would save the Eagles $3.5MM.

Giving the ax to Mark Sanchez, who’s the best QB the Eagles have under contract, would also open up $3.5MM of room. The only way that will happen is if the club find two other viable signal-callers this offseason.

Positions Of Need:

Quarterback is obviously the Eagles’ primary concern. If Bradford isn’t in their plans, one player who has come up lately as a potential replacement is the aforementioned Foles, who was among the league’s worst QBs in 2015. Prior to last season, Foles had an up-and-down three years in Philly – including a stellar 2013 highlighted by 27 TDs against two INTs – and Schefter recently tweeted that the Eagles are interested in bringing him back. McLane and Bowen once again rebutted Schefter’s report, however.

Other than Foles, whom the Rams must trade prior to March 11 if they want to avoid taking on his $6MM bonus for 2016, veteran options include Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chase Daniel – all of whom are unsigned. The chances of Cousins actually reaching the market are close to nonexistent, while Osweiler and Fitzpatrick are expected to re-sign with the Broncos and Jets, respectively. Daniel spent the last three years as Alex Smith‘s backup in Kansas City and worked under Pederson, but the 6-footer lacks height and has thrown a meager 77 passes in the pros since going undrafted in 2009.

Robert Griffin III and Kaepernick are still signed in Washington and San Francisco, respectively, but it surely won’t be for much longer in RGIII’s case. Based on the trajectory of Griffin’s career in recent years, it would be foolhardy for any team to count on him as a starter. However, Kaepernick isn’t a lock to stay with the Niners, and he might be worth a look for the Eagles if he’s cut. The 28-year-old was an above-average starter from 2012-14 and continues to possess world-class mobility. That could appeal to Pederson, who comes from coaching an offense that took advantage of Smith’s fleetness.

Without signing Bradford or acquiring any of the other vets, the Eagles would almost have to gamble on a QB in the first round of the draft. In his most recent mock draft, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report has 6-foot-7 Paxton Lynch (Memphis) going to the Eagles with the 13th pick.

Should the Eagles eschew the QB position in the opening round, they could address their offensive line instead. Aside from their starting tackles (Johnson and the aging Peters) and center Jason Kelce, the Eagles’ line is bereft of dependable blockers. Part of that stems from not having drafted an O-lineman since 2013, when Johnson went fourth overall.

That will change this year, potentially in the first round. The Eagles don’t have a second-rounder, so they might have to use their top pick to add big-time young talent to their line. It’s a safe assumption that the first- and second-ranked tackles, Laremy Tunsil (Ole Miss) and Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame), will be gone by No. 13. Taylor Decker (Ohio State) and Jack Conklin (Michigan State) should be on the board, however. As for guard, the Eagles have been connected to Kansas State’s Cody Whitehair.

Of course, there will also be free agents available with the ability to improve the Eagles’ line. Pederson happens to be familiar with Jeff Allen, one of the foremost guards scheduled to reach the market. Allen joined the Chiefs as a second-rounder in 2012, the year before the club hired Pederson. Given their less-than-ideal guard situation and Pederson’s connection to Allen, it’ll be a surprise if the Eagles don’t pursue the 26-year-old.

The Eagles also need to bolster their receiving corps, having gotten minimal production from 2015 first-rounder Nelson Agholor and 2014 third-rounder Josh Huff. It’s too early to write off either player, especially Agholor, but the fact is that that the club’s only proven wideout is Jordan Matthews. Assuming the Eagles don’t join the Alshon Jeffery sweepstakes or splurge on the position in the form of another first-rounder, free agents-to-be like Rishard Matthews (Dolphins), Rueben Randle (Giants) and Mohamed Sanu (Bengals), to name a few, could be on their radar.

Even after signing Maxwell to a mammoth deal and using a high pick on Rowe a year ago, the Eagles’ secondary continues to stand out as a problem. Maxwell and Rowe didn’t exactly dominate last season, and even if they had, the Eagles would still need more help behind them. That’s especially true in light of Carroll’s status as a pending free agent. With Thurmond a candidate to bolt this year and Malcolm Jenkins possibly on his way to doing the same in 2017, safety is even more of a worry for both next season and the long term.

Elsewhere on defense, the Eagles’ front four is in outstanding shape on paper. Connor Barwin, who is moving from linebacker to defensive end (link via Matt Lombardo of NJ.com), joins a line that will also heavily feature Cox, Curry, Brandon Graham and Bennie Logan.

At linebacker, Jordan Hicks, Mychal Kendricks and Kiko Alonso figure to get the lion’s share of playing time. Kendricks and Alonso both struggled last season, but the hope is their play will recover under Schwartz. Regardless, the Eagles could use more linebacker depth, especially with Ryans’ future in question.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

As mentioned, the Eagles have made sizable financial commitments to Curry, Johnson, Ertz and Celek in recent weeks. Next on their agenda is Fletcher Cox, who will be more expensive than everyone in that group.

Fletcher Cox (vertical)The 25-year-old is poised to become one of the league’s richest defenders, in fact, with Eliot Shorr-Parks of NJ.com forecasting $50MM+ in guaranteed money and Jason Fitzgerald adding (via Twitter) that Cox has a chance to surpass the deal Marcell Dareus signed with the Bills last year. Dareus averages $15.85MM per year, with $60MM in total guarantees ($42.9MM fully guaranteed), as the league’s second-highest-paid DT. Earlier this week, Shorr-Parks reported that the Eagles are getting close to an extension with Cox, which the player seemed to deny (on Twitter).

A first-rounder in 2012, Cox is entering his fifth-year option season and is scheduled to make $7.799MM. The former Mississippi State standout earned his first Pro Bowl nod last season after tallying career highs in tackles (71), sacks (9.5) and forced fumbles (three).

Like Cox, Malcolm Jenkins is coming off a wildly successful campaign and is going into a contract year. Jenkins started all of the Eagles’ games, finished tops among NFL defensive backs in snap percentage (99.8), made 109 tackles, created five turnovers (three INTs, two fumbles), and ranked as PFF’s second-best safety. The seven-year veteran is now eagerly anticipating his next contract, which he hopes comes from the Eagles.

“Believe me, I’m waiting. I’m trying to get in line just like everybody else,” he told SiriusXM Radio this month (via McLane). “That’s something I can’t control. But I’m definitely interested in staying. I want to be in Philly long-term.”

Jenkins, who signed with the Eagles for three years and $16.25MM in 2014, is slated to rake in $5MM next season. Considering his track record, Jenkins’ next contract should put him in the top tier of safeties. One fairly comparable player is Devin McCourty, whom the Patriots signed to a five-year, $47.5MM deal last offseason. McCourty was entering his age-28 season then and had one Pro Bowl and a pair of second-team All-Pro honors to his name. He now ranks in the top three among safeties in contract value, guarantees ($22MM) and annual amount ($9.5MM). Jenkins, with one Pro Bowl bid and a second-team All-Pro selection on his resume, is in line to become a free agent at 29.

The Eagles are also at risk of losing Bennie Logan in a year. The 2013 third-rounder has missed only two games in three seasons and is fresh off a year in which PFF rated him as the league’s 13th-best interior defender against the run, but there hasn’t been reported talk of an extension for him. Logan is set to cap off his rookie contract with a base salary worth around $1.64MM next season. While the value of his next deal is hard to gauge, it’ll be worth appreciably more than his current salary. An accord in the range of $4MM to $5MM per annum would place Logan among the league’s 15 highest-paid 4-3 DTs in yearly value.

Overall Outlook:

Evidenced by the contract extensions they’ve doled out since their season ended, the Eagles are clearly making a concerted effort to retain their homegrown core. But deciding whether to keep Bradford, an outside acquisition, could be their most agonizing and important choice in the coming months. The Eagles certainly aren’t devoid of talent, so they’ll be prime bounce-back candidates in 2016 if they make the right move under center.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 2/7/16 – 2/14/16

February 14th, 2016 at 3:49pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original analysis and content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Offseason Outlook: New York Giants

February 13th, 2016 at 10:00pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Eli Manning, QB: $24,200,000
  2. Victor Cruz, WR: $9,900,000
  3. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB: $8,000,000
  4. Will Beatty, T: $5,000,000 (dead money)
  5. Shane Vereen, RB: $4,916,666
  6. J.T. Thomas, LB: $4,000,000
  7. Dwayne Harris, WR: $3,800,000
  8. Jonathan Casillas, LB: $3,416,666
  9. Ereck Flowers, T: $3,270,871
  10. Odell Beckham Jr., WR: $2,838,054
  11. Rashad Jennings, RB: $2,812,500
  12. Justin Pugh, T: $2,655,513
  13. Marshall Newhouse, T: $1,950,000
  14. Geoff Schwartz, G: $1,916,667 (dead money)
  15. John Jerry, G: $1,900,000

Notable coaching/front office changes:

Draft:

  • No. 10 overall pick
  • Owe conditional seventh-round pick to Steelers in deal for P Brad Wing.
    • Conditions aren’t known, but since Wing spent the entire season on Giants’ roster, the conditions were almost certainly met.

Other:

Overview:

It’s a new year and a new look on the sidelines in New York. Well, sort of.Tom Coughlin

In January, Tom Coughlin and the Giants opted to go their separate ways. Coughlin, who previously served as head coach of the Jaguars, led the Giants to a 102-90 record during his 12 seasons with the team. He also added eight victories in 11 postseason contests, with all of those wins coming in two seasons – 2007 and 2011 – during which the Giants won the Super Bowl. In recent years, however, Coughlin’s Giants struggled, having failed to earn a postseason berth since that 2011 Super Bowl season. After going 9-7 in 2012, New York has had three straight losing years, finishing 6-10 in a weak NFC East in 2015 and sealing Coughlin’s fate.

After Coughlin’s departure, the Giants decided to cast a wide net in their head coaching search. The Giants interviewed the likes of Teryl Austin, Doug Marrone, Mike Smith, Adam Gase, and Hue Jackson. They also showed interest in Panthers DC Sean McDermott and were said to be fawning over Saints head coach Sean Payton. Still, they prioritized two interviews in particular – one with defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and one with offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. In mid-January, the Giants decided that the right man for the job was in-house all along when they promoted McAdoo to head coach.

McAdoo, who was hired as the Giants’ offensive coordinator in 2014, has helped Eli Manning enjoy perhaps the most productive two-year stretch of his NFL career. Although the club has posted a 6-10 record in consecutive seasons, Manning has thrived, averaging 4,423 yards and about 33 touchdowns per season over the last two years, to go along with a 92.9 rating. The Giants finished in the top eight in the NFL in terms of both yards per game (372.3) and points per game (26.3) in 2015.

Manning was vocal in his support of McAdoo and told a New York radio station earlier this month that he felt that McAdoo reminded him a lot of Coughlin. Manning’s endorsement alone did not get McAdoo the job, but there’s little doubt that it played a part.

After winning a combined 12 games over the last two seasons, the Giants are hoping to achieve a double-digit win total in 2016. Can they do it? Here’s a look at their offseason to-do list and their potential options.

Key Free Agents:

The Giants are expected to have more than $50MM in cap space at their disposal this spring, thanks to the massive list of free agents you see at the top of this article. There are several notable free agents that the Giants will consider hanging on to, including cornerback Prince Amukamara.

Amukamara has had an up-and-down run with the Giants since his entry into the league in 2011, but some of his problems can be chalked up to injury. Of course, that’s a double-edged sword when evaluating a free agent. Amukamara’s only 16-game season came in 2013 and in the last two years, he has only taken the field for 19 contests. Still, in his 11 games in 2015, Amukamara was a difference maker, notching 63 total tackles, 10 pass deflections, one fumble recovery, and one interception. When healthy, Amukamara has demonstrated the ability that made him the No. 19 overall pick in the 2011 draft. I’d expect the Giants to make an effort to re-sign Amukamara before free agency officially gets underway, but the team will only go so far to retain him given the options that are out there at cornerback.

"<strongFor the last year, Giants fans have been buzzing about the future of defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. Of course, JPP’s story took a bizarre and tragic turn last July when a fireworks accident cost him a finger and probably millions of dollars. Pierre-Paul got back to football in the fall and was extremely motivated on the field to prove the naysayers wrong. However, for all of his grit and work ethic, he did not look like the same player he did before the hand injury.

Some reports indicated that Pierre-Paul turned down a ~$60MM contract offer from the Giants prior to his 4th of July accident. At this stage, it’s highly unlikely that anyone will be making such an offer to the once-dominant defensive end. Still, Pierre-Paul showed that he can cause trouble for opposing quarterbacks and he could still hold value for the Giants (and other clubs) on a short-term deal. One has to think that the Giants will first explore re-signing JPP to a short-term deal that includes performance-based incentives. JPP’s reps, meanwhile, probably will push for more guaranteed money up front.

The football world (not to mention the fantasy football world) has been waiting for wide receiver Rueben Randle to take off and establish himself as a star wide receiver. We’re now four years into his NFL career and onlookers are no longer waiting with bated breath. Randle has shown flashes in the past, but he has yet to put it altogether and the Giants can probably find a better partner for Odell Beckham Jr. elsewhere. For his part, Randle says he wants to stay in New York.

Defensive end Robert Ayers has played in exactly 12 games in each of the last two seasons for the Giants, but he has proven to be a disruptive force each time. This past season, Ayers notched a career-high 9.0 sacks to go along with 41 total tackles, and the Giants’ pass-rush unit would be lacking if he signs elsewhere.

Last summer, Jasper Brinkley inked a two-year contract with Dallas that included $2MM in guaranteed cash. Months later, the Cowboys decided they’d rather give Brinkley that dough to go elsewhere, and less than 24 hours after he hit the open market, the Giants were there to scoop him up on a one-year deal. A former fifth-round pick, Brinkley started 11 games for Minnesota in 2014, compiling 75 tackles and a sack. This past year, Brinkley started 9 games (playing in 15 total) and racked up 66 total tackles with four forced fumbles and one sack. Brinkley was initially brought in to serve in a reserve role, but a November injury to Jon Beason made him a more central part of the team’s front seven. Now that Beason is retiring (more on that later), Brinkley could be retained as a strong rotational option. Then again, Brinkley will turn 31 in July and the Giants may opt to go younger at linebacker.

Possible Cap Casualties:

"<strongWhat will the Giants do with Victor Cruz? Just two short years ago, Cruz was the darling of New York and the focal point of their passing attack. Now, Beckham Jr. is the team’s ace wide receiver of the future and Cruz has not seen the field since October 12th, 2014.

Cruz was working his way back from a torn patellar tendon that forced him to miss most of 2014 season when, during his recovery, he injured his calf. In November 2015, he was placed on IR before his season could even get started. Cruz is currently set to count $9.9MM against the Giants’ cap in 2016 and none of his remaining $24MM over the next three years is guaranteed, so he’s unlikely to continue on his current contract. However, there’s no reason why the two sides couldn’t agree to a reworked deal that includes a pay cut.

Last year, the Giants were dealt an absolute gut punch when offensive tackle Will Beatty was ruled out for the entire 2015 campaign due to pectoral and rotator cuff injuries. The Giants also badly missed the services of offensive guard Geoff Schwartz. Both players were set to return in 2016 at considerable salaries, but just days ago, Big Blue opted to release both of the linemen.

Schwartz, 29, started 11 games for the Giants in 2015, but his seasons was cut short when he fractured a bone in his left leg in late November, forcing the team to place him on injured reserve. By releasing him, the Giants will avoid paying him $3.925MM annual salaries this year and next year, taking on a hit of about $1.917MM in dead money for 2016. The move creates nearly $3MM in cap savings for the club, while Schwartz – like his brother Mitchell Schwartz – figures to be on the lookout for a new home. Releasing Beatty, meanwhile, will leave $5MM in dead money on the Giants’ 2015 cap, but the move will also clear $4.175MM in space.

The Giants also said adios to linebacker Jon Beason, who announced his retirement. Beason said that he wanted to continue playing, but after consulting with numerous doctors, those experts unanimously recommending that he retire because of his injured knee. Beason would have been owed a $1MM roster bonus if he were still on the Giants’ roster on the fifth day of the 2016 league year. Instead, the Giants’ will clear that bonus, $1.2MM in per-game roster bonuses, a $100K workout bonus, and his $2.8MM base salary from their cap, creating a total of $5.1MM in cap savings. Taking into account the Beason, Schwartz, and Beatty moves, the Giants created more than $12.2MM in cap savings.

Positions Of Need:

Just like last offseason, the safety position stands as one of the Giants’ biggest needs. Last year, the Giants aimed high when they tried to bring Devin McCourty back to New Jersey. When the Rutgers alum returned to the Patriots, the Giants were left scrambling and could not come up with a high-impact solution.

If the Giants want to aim high once again, they could make a run at Chiefs free agent Eric Berry. The two sides are said to be working on an extension, and he’s a candidate for the franchise tag, but Berry would be a phenomenal fit for the Giants if he reaches the open market. Appearing in all 16 games for Kansas City in 2015, Berry logged 61 tackles to go along with a pair of interceptions and 10 passes defended. Pro Football Focus ranked the Tennessee product sixth among 88 qualified safeties. The standout season earned Berry his fourth Pro Bowl berth, along with a spot on the NFL’s All-Pro first team.

The Giants will also have to bolster their defensive line, particularly on the bookends if JPP and/or Ayers are not retained. In theory, Owa Odighizuwa could be elevated to a more significant role, but the club will have to improve its depth in that regard at the very least. The best Giants teams in recent years have relied on strong play from their defensive ends and it’s not like Justin Tuck is walking back through that door (though, technically, he will be back on a one-day deal before retiring).

On the interior of the defensive line, the Giants will have to find some outside help, particularly if Cullen Jenkins leaves in free agency or retires. The club was expecting a big leap forward from Jay Bromley in his second year, but the rising junior probably can’t be counted upon as a starter. A Syracuse product, Bromley started four games for the Giants this season and appeared in all 16, making 19 total tackles.

The Giants and Cruz will likely discuss a re-worked contract at a reduced salary, but that probably won’t end the club’s search for a secondary wide receiver. Entering his third season, ODB figures to draw double coverage from every opposing team unless the Giants can find a credible threat to line up on the opposite side of the field.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

There aren’t a lot of strong veteran candidates for extensions on the Giants’ roster, but there are a pair of players from the 2013 draft class who could get consideration for new contracts.

Guard/tackle Justin Pugh is now one of the key members’ of the team’s offensive line, following the releases of Schwartz and Beatty, so the club could look into extending his rookie contract, though he has a fifth-year option for 2017.

Defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins, who was placed on IR in November, could be a buy-low candidate if the Giants want to lock him down for future seasons.

Overall Outlook:

The Giants have tons of cap space and flexibility to make major changes, but they’re far from the only team with spending room this spring. The Giants will have to play it smart in free agency and, more importantly, get it right in the draft. Overall, GM Jerry Reese doesn’t have the best track record when it comes to picking college prospects.

“The last couple of drafts have been much more productive. But we had a few in there where we just haven’t seen the production. Your core players are your third, fourth, fifth-year players. If you look back at those draft classes, there’s not a lot of them that are playing right now,” co-owner John Mara said in January.

This year, the Giants hold the No. 10 overall pick, two spots higher than where they landed Beckham Jr. in 2014. They appear to be in prime position to land a promising defensive lineman like Oklahoma St. DE Emmanuel Ogbah, but they’ll have to nail their picks in the later rounds as well in order to put themselves in a better position going forward.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Bears

February 12th, 2016 at 9:52pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Jay Cutler, QB: $17,000,000
  2. Jermon Bushrod, T: $8,700,000
  3. Pernell McPhee, OLB: $7,675,000
  4. Lamarr Houston, OLB: $6,990,000
  5. Martellus Bennett, TE: $6,310,000
  6. Eddie Royal, WR: $4,500,000
  7. Robbie Gould, K: $4,100,000
  8. Kevin White, WR: $3,764,329
  9. Matt Slauson, G: $3,405,000
  10. Willie Young, OLB: $3,166,668
  11. Antrel Rolle, S: $2,718,750
  12. Kyle Fuller, CB: $2,641,909
  13. Kyle Long, T: $2,641,212
  14. Tim Jennings, CB: $1,500,000 (dead money)
  15. Eddie Goldman, DT: $1,292,344

Notable coaching/front office changes:

  • Offensive coordinator: Promoted QBs coach Dowell Loggains to replace Adam Gase, who left to become Dolphins’ HC.
  • Quarterbacks coach: Hired Dave Ragone to replace Dowell Loggains.

Draft:

  • No. 11 overall pick
  • Acquired sixth-round pick from Patriots in deal for LB Jon Bostic.
  • Acquired conditional sixth-round pick from Panthers in deal for DE Jared Allen.
    • Conditions aren’t known, but likely were met.

Other:

  • Current projected cap room (via Over the Cap): $51.6MM
  • Must exercise or decline fifth-year option for 2017 for T Kyle Long.

Overview:

2015 was largely billed as a rebuilding year for the Bears, and while a 6-10 record is certainly indicative of such a process, you’d be hard-pressed to find Chicago fans who weren’t — at the least — encouraged by last season’s outcome (and are now more enthused about the future). And a large chunk of that excitement, undoubtedly, is due to the successful ’15 campaign of quarterback Jay Cutler.Jay Cutler (Vertical)

If you’ll think back to last season, Cutler’s fate with the Bears seemed to be sealed — he was benched by the previous Chicago regime at the end of the 2014 season, and subsequently, was anything but endorsed by new head coach John Fox and new general manager Ryan Pace. Speaking at last year’s combine, neither decision-maker fully committed to Cutler, and he was widely reported to be on the trade block.

But with the help of new offensive coordinator Adam Gase, Cutler rebounded, posting the lowest full-season interception total of his career, tossing 21 touchdowns, and finishing as a top-10 quarterback in Football Outsiders’ DYAR metric. Gase has since departed to become the Dolphins head coach, but with Cutler confidant Dowell Loggains having been promoted to play-caller, the quarterback position in Chicago seems to be set, at least for the time being.

On the other side of the ball, the Bears defense finished 14th in yards, 20th in scoring, but 31st in DVOA (they were 28th in weighted DVOA — which places more emphasis on the team’s most recent games — meaning the unit got slightly better as the year progressed). The numbers aren’t great, but given that Chicago is somewhat devoid of talent of talent on defense, they actually speak pretty well of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

It’s an important offseason for Pace and the rest of the Bears front office, so let’s take a look at what lies in store for Chicago over the next several months.

Key Free Agents:

Topping the list of Chicago’s free agents is receiver Alshon Jeffery, who despite missing seven games with nagging injuries, still managed to have a very productive season (at least on a rate basis). He caught four touchdowns in his starts, and managed nearly 90 yards receiving per game, good for eighth in the league. Jeffery will turn just 26 years old on Valentine’s Day, and as the best receiver available on the open market — and the No. 2 overall free agent in our most recent power rankings — he’s certainly set up for a big payday.Alshon Jeffery (Vertical)

Threatening that contract potential, of course, is the Bears’ option to tender Jeffery the franchise tag, and retain him on a one-year deal at a cost of $14MM+. The incentives for a extension are obvious for both parties — financial security for Jeffery, retaining its best offensive weapon/lower initial cap charges for Chicago — but it’s not a certainty that a deal gets done. For their part, the Bears sound amenable to a long-term contract, but speaking last month, Jeffery didn’t sound quite as enthusiastic about such a pact.

Comps are available whether Jeffery seeks a five-year deal (like Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, and Julio Jones) or a four-year contract (like A.J. Green). Green, at $15MM annually, received a higher AAV than did the five-year deal cadre, but garnered a much lower guarantee. His $26.75MM in guarantees pales in comparison the five-year trio, each of whom received at least $30MM in guaranteed money. Personally, I’d guess that Jeffery would push for the longer contract and thus the higher guarantee — with his injury history, he should probably secure as much money as he can immediately.

Staying among the offensive skill positions, we come to running back Matt Forte, the longest-tenured Bear on the roster with the exception of kicker Robbie Gould. Forte, who turned 30 in December, failed to top 1,000 yards rushing for the first time since 2011, and as he announced earlier today, he won’t be returning to Chicago for a ninth season.

“Despite my wishes, my days as a member of the Chicago Bears have sadly come to an end,” Forte said in an Instagram post. “I was informed earlier this week from the GM that they will not be attempting to re-sign me in free agency. I will remain forever grateful for my time spent in Chicago and being able to play for an organization with such a rich history.

It makes sense that the Bears want to get younger on offense, and the duo of Jeremy Langford and Ka’Deem Carey will likely handle the load in 2016. It could be good news for Forte, as well, as he can seek to latch on with a surefire contender — he’ll probably find a short-term deal with a new club, and the Patriots look like one early suitor.Zach Miller (Nebraska-Omaha)

Elsewhere on offense, tight end Zach Miller is said to be targeting a $5MM average annual value after a breakout campaign that saw him post career-highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. But as PFR’s Luke Adams wrote in that linked post, $5MM could be a tough sell — the Browns’ Gary Barnidge, for example, had better numbers and failed to reach that mark. More likely, the 31-year-old Miller will settle for a lower salary, whether it be with the Bears or another club.

Receiver Marc Mariani — largely a return man to this point in his career — saw his largest role in an offense since 2011, playing on almost 50% of Chicago’s offensive snaps. He’s still a viable special-teamer, but a strong offensive unit probably doesn’t use someone of Mariani’s caliber quite as often. Along the line, Vlad Ducasse started 11 games, and was predictably disappointing, grading as the league’s No. 47 guard, according to Pro Football Focus — the Bears should seek an upgrade.

Let’s move to the defense, where, as noted above, coordinator Vic Fangio didn’t really have the horses, but still coaxed a somewhat respectable performance. Along the defensive line, two ends who saw significant playing time — Jarvis Jenkins and Mitch Unrein — are heading for free agency. Neither was spectacular, and given that I expect the Bears to target line help via either free agency or the draft, I wouldn’t anticipate either being retained as anything more than depth pieces on the veteran’s minimum.

Former first-round pick Shea McClellin has bounced around to several positions along the front seven during his career, but despite all the positional changes, he never seems to find success. He graded out as the league’s No. 88 linebacker among 97 qualifiers, per PFF, and despite McLellin expressing interest in re-signing, it’s time for the Bears to move on. Conversely, Chicago should look to re-sign Sam Acho, who was not only a valuable contributor on special teams, but saw action on 43% of the club’s defensive snaps. He’s always been a personal favorite of mine, and the Bears can once again keep him around via the minimum salary benefit, they should jump at the opportunity.

In the secondary, Tracy Porter spent the entire season as a starting corner opposite Kyle Fuller, but wasn’t overly effective, and the Bears should definitely look for an upgrade. Alan Ball, Chris Prosinski, and Sherrod Martin (the latter of whom was recently singled out by Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com) can all be replaced by younger, cheaper options. Meanwhile, Dickerson did advocate for Chicago to re-sign cornerback Sherrick McManis, who is a special teams ace.

Possible Cap Casualties:

Fresh off the beast season of his career in 2014, tight end Martellus Bennett disappointed in 2015 for a number of reasons. He was never fully healthy, and he missed five games while posting his lowest yards per reception since 2010. Additionally, there were reports that Bennett was unhappy not only with his contract, but with his role in the Bears’ offense (claims that his agent and GM Ryan Pace have since denied).Martellus Bennett (Vertical)_

Assuming that Alshon Jeffery is retained and Matt Forte is not, Bennett figures to be the second-best weapon on the Chicago offense, and his 2016 cap charge of $6.31MM is more than reasonable. So his status really comes down to his relationship with the club, something that’s hard for us to judge. Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com recently argued for the Bears to trade Bennett, and if the reports of the rift are accurate, and another club is willing to part with draft compensation, I suppose that’s an option. Releasing Bennett would save Chicago $5.185MM against the cap, and if that happens, it would be clear the relationship had soured.

Left tackle Jermon Bushrod will almost certainly be released after a 2015 campaign that saw him lose his starting job to former seventh-round pick Charles Leno. Designating Bushrod as a post-June 1 cut would make some sense, as that move would spread his dead money out over two seasons ($2.2MM in both ’16 and ’17). But given that the Bears are flush with cap space, I’d expect them to bite the bullet and take the full $4.4MM hit immediately.

Having played in only seven games due to injury issues, 33-year-old safety Antrel Rolle would make sense a release candidate. However, Rolle’s contract was structured in such a way that his cap numbers for both 2016 and 2017 are quite low (~$2.71MM next season). The deal has no dead money remaining, so Chicago would clear his entire cap hit, but the secondary is so devoid of talent that I’d expect the club to take another chance with Rolle, a former first-round pick and Pro Bowler. Larry Meyer of ChicagoBears.com last month profiled Rolle and his determination to rebound in 2016.

Defensive end/linebacker Lamarr Houston was rumored to be on the trade block last season, and I wonder if that thought could cross the Bears’ decision-makers’ minds once again. Houston wasn’t great in his transition from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 outside linebacker, so a switch back to a 4-3 scheme might do him good. A trade (or a pre-June 1 cut) would give the Bears more than $4MM in cap savings, so it’s a move they’ll probably consider.

Positions Of Need:

The Bears enter the 2016 offseason with $51.6MM in projected cap space, good for fourth in the NFL (for now), and I expect the team to be active in free agency. General manager Ryan Pace has said as much, noting that his club will need to use free agency to augment their roster due to team needs. However, Pace has also said that he doesn’t expect Chicago to use its excess cap room to pursue a high-profile free agent, preferring to spread the wealth and bring in several players at reasonable values.

Most every area of need in Chicago comes on the defensive side of the ball, so let’s go ahead and get the offense out of the way. Presuming Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett are retained and 2015 first-rounder Kevin White comes back healthy, the Bears should be mostly set on offense. They will need to replace Vlad Ducasse at left guard, but I don’t expect them to spend at the top of the market to do so. If Alex Boone‘s price comes down, I could see him landing in Chicago, and the recently-released Geoff Schwartz could also make some sense.Danny Trevathan (vertical)

The most pressing needs are on defense, starting with linebacker. The most obvious candidate to help at that spot is Broncos free agent Danny Trevathan, who has already stated he expects interest from the Bears based on his relationship and familiarity with John Fox. Fellow Denver linebacker Brandon Marshall is also a free agent, albeit one of the restricted variety. The Broncos will likely place a first- or second-round tender on Marshall, making Trevathan the preferred option.

Trevathan alone probably won’t cut it, as Chicago could use two new starting inside linebackers. It’s a cheap position, so if the Bears want to use free agency for both replacements instead of using a draft pick, they can. Veteran Joe Mays shouldn’t cost much on a one-year deal (and like Trevathan, has a history with Fox), while the Browns’ Craig Robertson or the Titans’ Zach Brown — each of whom excels in pass coverage — could also be targeted.

Adding another edge defender also wouldn’t hurt, and while the dream scenario is luring Super Bowl MVP Von Miller to Chicago, that simply is not going to happen, as Miller will either re-sign with Denver or get the franchise tag. The Bears could take a flyer on someone like Nick Perry or Courtney Upshaw, each of whom were relatively high draft picks who have failed to live up to their billing. The draft could also aid here, as Matt Miller of Bleacher Report has the Bears selecting Georgia’s Leonard Floyd in the first round of his most recent mock draft.

Along the defensive line, Chicago is probably set at nose tackle with Eddie Goldman, though the 49ers’ Ian Williams has a history with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Williams could conceivably shift to end in the Bears’ scheme, but he’ll be expensive, as he’s just 26 years old and is coming off a ver solid season.

At end, Muhammad Wilkerson will likely be franchised, and while he’s thought to be a trade candidate, I don’t think the Bears would (or should) give up their first-round pick – and pony up the extension money – for Wilkerson, who is coming off a broken leg. Instead, I expect Chicago to target Malik Jackson based on his history with Fox. Jackson won’t be cheap, and given the recent extensions inked by 3-4 defensive ends, he’s surely targeting a $11MM yearly value.

Ideally, the Bears would use the majority of their cap space on improving their front seven, and then use the draft and/or the second and third waves of free agency to solidify the back end. Chicago can make do with Kyle Fuller, Tracy Porter (if re-signed), Antrel Rolle, and Adrian Amos in the secondary, but adding another piece at either corner or safety wouldn’t be a bad idea. Josh Robinson could be intriguing at corner, while Rashad Johnson could be a target at safety.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Kyle Long has been named to the Pro Bowl in each of his three seasons in the league, and having transitioned from guard to tackle prior to the 2015 campaign, he’s now been to the all-star game at two positions. His 2017 fifth-year option will be exercised, and the Bears can begin working towards an extension immediately.Kyle Long (Vertical)

Long’s extension case is an interesting one given his recent positional change, but there is a recent example that is somewhat similar to Long’s situation — Eagles tackle Lane Johnson. Johnson, of course, has spent the entirety of his career on the right side, but his new five-year, $56.26MM contract was clearly negotiated with the assumption that he’ll replace Jason Peters at left tackle in due time.

It’s not clear if the Bears plan to move Long to the left side at some point, but as John Mullin of CSNChicago.com wrote last week, Long is set up for a big payday regardless. He should be able to surpass every other right tackle besides Johnson in terms of yearly value and guarantee, and if the plan is to eventually move Long to the blind side (and that plan is communicated to Long’s representation), he could match – or surpass – Johnson’s extension.

Overall Outlook:

The Bears can’t afford regression from their offense, as their defense – barring a complete turnaround – figures to once again be a weak point. Retaining Alshon Jeffery and investing more in the offensive line will only buoy Jay Cutler‘s production, and if the defense can finish as, say, a top 20 unit by DVOA, Chicago probably won’t go 6-10 again. The NFC North is a tough division, and Green Bay and Minnesota once again look like the favorites, but pending a solid offseason, it’s not out of the question that the Bears could compete for a Wild Card spot.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2016 Proven Performance Escalators

February 12th, 2016 at 5:53pm CST by Dallas Robinson

According to the NFL’s contractual bargaining agreement, players drafted in rounds three though seven are entitled to raises during the fourth year of their respective rookie contracts. The pay bumps are tied to playing time — a player must have played in 35% of his team’s offensive or defensive snaps in two of his first three seasons, or averaged 35% playing time cumulatively during that period.

If one of these thresholds is met, the player’s salary is elevated to the level of that year’s lowest restricted free agent tender — that figure is projected to be $1.696MM in 2016. Players selected in the first or second round, undrafted free agents, and kickers/punters are ineligible for the proven performance escalator.

Here are the players who will see their salary rise in 2016 courtesy of the proven performance escalator:Keenan Allen (Vertical)

49ers: Gerald Hodges, LB

Bears: Marquess Wilson, WR

Buccaneers: William Gholston, DE; Mike Glennon, QB; Akeem Spence, DT

Cardinals: Andre Ellington, RB; Tyrann Mathieu, CB/S; Alex Okafor, LB

Chargers: Keenan Allen, WR

Colts: Sio Moore, LB; Hugh Thornton, G

Cowboys: J.J. Wilcox, S; Terrance Williams, WR

Dolphins: Jelani Jenkins, LB; Dallas Thomas, T; Dion Sims, TE; Kenny Stills, WR

Eagles: Bennie Logan, DT

Falcons: Kemal Ishmael, S; Levine Toilolo, TE

Jaguars: Josh Evans, S; Dwayne Gratz, CB

Jets: Brian Winters, G

Lions: Larry Warford, G

Packers: David Bakhtiari, T; Micah Hyde, S

Patriots: Duron Harmon, S; Chris Jones, DT; Logan Ryan, CB

Raiders: Mychal Rivera, TE

Rams: T.J. McDonald, S

Ravens: Ricky Wagner, T; Brandon Williams, DT

Saints: Terron Armstead, T; John Jenkins, DT

Seahawks: Luke Willson, TE

Steelers: Markus Wheaton, WR

Titans: Brian Schwenke, C

Washington: Jordan Reed, TE

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Ravens

February 11th, 2016 at 9:50pm CST by Luke Adams

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Joe Flacco, QB: $28,550,000
  2. Jimmy Smith, CB: $9,600,000
  3. Lardarius Webb, CB: $9,500,000
  4. Eugene Monroe, T: $8,700,000
  5. Marshal Yanda, G: $7,985,882
  6. Terrell Suggs, OLB: $7,450,000
  7. Elvis Dumervil, OLB: $7,375,000
  8. Dennis Pitta, TE: $7,200,000
  9. Jeremy Zuttah, C: $4,607,206
  10. Will Hill, S: $4,590,000
  11. Daryl Smith, ILB: $4,375,000
  12. Steve Smith, WR: $4,166,668
  13. Justin Forsett, RB: $3,700,000
  14. Sam Koch, P: $3,100,000
  15. Chris Canty, DE: $2,915,000

Notable coaching/front office changes:

  • Defensive staff: Lost OLBs coach Ted Monachino to Colts, who hired him as defensive coordinator.

Draft:

Other:

  • Current projected cap room (via Over the Cap): $1.31MM
  • Must exercise or decline fifth-year option for 2017 for S Matt Elam.

Overview:

Coming into the 2015 season, the Ravens had never finished below .500 in a season during John Harbaugh‘s tenure with the franchise, and had earned a playoff spot in six of the previous seven seasons. There was no reason not to expect Baltimore to be in contention for the AFC North crown again in ’15.

Instead, the club saw season-ending injuries sideline veteran leaders on offense and defense, as wide receiver Steve Smith and outside linebacker Terrell Suggs each suffered a torn Achilles. Without Smith and Suggs, among others, the Ravens had their worst season since Brian Billick coached the team, finishing with a 5-11 record. A pair of wins against the division-rival Steelers represented virtually the only bright spots in a dismal year for Baltimore.

Unlike many teams that finished near the Ravens in the overall NFL standings, Baltimore isn’t a franchise that’s inclined to make sweeping changes after one bad year. The duo of Harbaugh and GM Ozzie Newsome is one of the longest-tenured leadership groups in football, and they’ll be tasked with righting the ship in 2016.

For a Ravens team that builds through the draft and rarely makes big splashes in free agency, that likely means staying the course, for the most part. Still, there are areas that need to be addressed and upgraded, and a rare top-10 draft pick could help the club bounce back next season.

Key Free Agents:

The list of pending Ravens free agents above features 26 names, which is essentially half of the 53-man roster that finished the season in Baltimore. However, 11 of those players are exclusive rights free agents, making them FAs in name only. In actuality, if those players want to play in 2016, and the Ravens want to keep them, they’ll have no choice but to accept the minimum-salary offer tendered to them by the team. Our focus in this section will instead be on the unrestricted and restricted free agents, players who have a real chance of moving on this offseason.

The Ravens, of course, have no qualms about letting certain players walk in free agency, even if those players have been key contributors in recent years. By mostly sitting out free agency themselves and allowing some of their own free agents to sign lucrative deals with new teams, the Ravens perennially rack up compensatory draft picks, which are handed out to teams who lose impact players in free agency. Since the program began in 1994, Baltimore has been awarded 44 compensatory picks — no other team has landed more than 35.Kelechi Osemele

A player like offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele is a prime candidate to sign with another team, and would almost certainly earn the Ravens a 2017 comp pick if he does. Osemele has been a very solid performer at guard – and occasionally tackle – for the Ravens, but the team already invested heavily in one guard recently, when Marshal Yanda was locked up to a multiyear extension. Unless Baltimore views Osemele as its left tackle of the future, the club will likely be outbid by another Osemele suitor in free agency, perhaps one willing to pay him like a left tackle.

Similarly, even though the Ravens aren’t particularly deep at cornerback, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they don’t make a strong effort to re-sign Shareece Wright. After being signed in October by Baltimore, Wright was pretty solid in the secondary, but if he can parlay that success into a decent contract elsewhere, the Ravens would happily let him go, replacing him with a younger, cheaper alternative.

Quarterbacks Matt Schaub and Jimmy Clausen also seem unlikely to return to the Ravens in 2016, with Ryan Mallett likely getting the first shot to back up Joe Flacco. Mallett’s NFL résumé isn’t extensive enough that Baltimore should be totally confident in him as its No. 2 QB, but the structure of his contract suggests the team will probably give it a try.

Despite the Ravens’ aversion to re-signing some free agents, there are at least a couple players eligible for free agency who have a good chance to continue wearing purple and black in 2016. One is kicker Justin Tucker, who said in January that negotiations between the club and his agent have been going on “for a better part of a year, year and a half.” If Tucker and the Ravens don’t work out a long-term deal in the coming weeks, the 26-year-old – who has made 87.8% of his career field goals and never missed an extra point – is a strong candidate to receive the franchise tag, since the franchise price is fairly modest for kickers.

Another free-agent-to-be unlikely to go anywhere is wide receiver Kamar Aiken, who enjoyed a breakout season in 2015. Coming off a campaign in which he caught 75 balls for 944 yards, Aiken is eligible for restricted free agency and looks like a candidate to receive at least a second-round RFA tender. That tender (likely worth about $2.5MM) ensures that any team interested in signing Aiken to an offer sheet would have to give up a second-round pick to snatch him away from the Ravens.

If the Ravens believe Aiken still has the potential to improve, there’s a chance the team could even consider a first-round tender, which would mean committing an extra $1MM or so. As a point of comparison, the Seahawks used the second-round RFA tender on Jermaine Kearse a year ago even though his career highs of 38 receptions and 537 yards weren’t overly impressive, so a first-round tender isn’t out of the question for Aiken.

Possible Cap Casualties:

Depending on where the salary cap lands for 2016, the Ravens could be right up against it, based on their current commitments. However, there are several candidates to be released to give the team a little breathing room, and none are more obvious than tight end Dennis Pitta.

Dennis PittaIf Pitta could get – and stay – healthy, the Ravens would likely do everything they could to keep him around, albeit probably at a reduced salary. But ongoing hip issues have sidelined him since September 2014, and may prematurely end his career. For the first time in 2016, Pitta’s base salary is non-guaranteed, so Baltimore can release him a clear a little cap room. Still, unless he’s designated as a post-June 1 cut, the savings would be marginal ($600K).

The next tier of potential cap casualties for the Ravens might not offer significant savings either, but players like Eugene Monroe, Kyle Arrington, Matt Elam, and Arthur Brown could be on the chopping block. Monroe, like Pitta, has been unable to stay healthy in recent years, while Arrington struggled in 2015 and saw his role reduced as the season went on. Elam and Brown aren’t particularly expensive, but neither player has lived up to expectations since coming off the board in the first two rounds of the 2013 draft. Cutting all four players would create about $5.75MM in total cap savings for Baltimore for 2016, with no dead money beyond this year.

Moving further down the list, releasing players like cornerback Lardarius Webb and running back Justin Forsett would save $4MM and $2.3MM in 2016 cap room, respectively. However, Webb was a release candidate last year, and Baltimore opted to rework his contract instead. His 2015 performance wasn’t exactly elite, but it wasn’t bad either, so it would be somewhat surprising if the Ravens decide to cut ties with him now.

As for Forsett, even before his season was cut short by a broken arm, he wasn’t producing at the same level that he did in his first season with the Ravens in 2014. Baltimore could decide that using a mid-round pick on a running back and pairing that rookie with inexpensive youngster Javorius Allen would be a better use of resources than hanging onto Forsett and his $3.7MM cap hit.

Of course, the simplest way for the Ravens to clear a significant chunk of cap room would be to restructure Joe Flacco‘s deal, perhaps extending him in the process. But we’ll get to that possibility a little later.

Positions Of Need:

As noted earlier, the Ravens typically aren’t the sort of team to splash around in free agency when the new league year opens, preferring instead to fill their holes in the draft. But the team doesn’t mind signing free agents that have been released by their previous teams, rather than having their contracts expire.

Those players don’t count toward the compensatory pick formula, and that group is generally where teams can find lower-risk, bounce-back candidates. For instance, the offensive line is one area that the Ravens figure to focus on this offseason, and veteran linemen like Jahri Evans, Will Beatty, and Geoff Schwartz have already hit the open market this week. When considering potential free agent targets for Baltimore, that’s one factor we have to take into account.

Although the offensive line is a potential area of concern for the team, the center and guard spots look reasonably promising. Marshal Yanda, Ryan Jensen, and Jeremy Zuttah are a solid trio on the interior if they’re all healthy to begin the 2016 season. But if Kelechi Osemele departs in free agency and Eugene Monroe becomes a cap casualty, the two tackle spots will be major question marks. That’s one position the Ravens could address with the No. 6 overall pick — ESPN’s Todd McShay and Mel Kiper both have the team selecting Notre Dame tackle Ronnie Stanley in their latest mock drafts.

Elsewhere on offense, wide receiver is a a position that could be upgraded — Kamar Aiken and Jeremy Butler had good years in 2015, but they’d combined for just 24 total receptions (all Aiken’s) before that. Breshad Perriman missed his entire rookie season, and Steve Smith is coming off a torn Achilles. If all of those receivers are healthy and productive in 2016, it looks like a terrific group, but there are plenty of question marks, so the Ravens may want to add an insurance policy or two just in case.

On defense, the secondary has been a concern for the Ravens in recent years, and should be addressed in some form this offseason. At cornerback, Jimmy Smith wasn’t as effective as he has been in past seasons, Lardarius Webb is a candidate for a full-time move to safety, Shareece Wright is a free-agent-to-be, and Kyle Arrington probably shouldn’t be a starter. Adding a corner in free agency and/or during the first two days of the draft should be a priority for Baltimore.

Up the middle, Will Hill is a fine player at strong safety, but it’s not clear if Kendrick Lewis is the answer for the Ravens at free safety. Unless the team trusts Lewis or Webb to handle that role in 2016, it’s another area to consider for the offseason to-do list. Michael Griffin, cut this week by the Titans, is one veteran that could appeal to Baltimore.

Finally, with Terrell Suggs coming off a major injury and Elvis Dumervil having just turned 32, adding another pass rusher to the mix would make a lot of sense for the Ravens. The team has had some success in the past turning mid- or late-round draft picks into very effective situational pass rushers — former second-rounder Paul Kruger and fifth-rounder Pernell McPhee both parlayed strong part-time performances with the Ravens into big-time free agent contracts with other teams, for example.

If Baltimore can strike gold again with a mid-round pick this year, or if a young player like Za’Darius Smith can take a nice step forward, it would take a lot of pressure off a pair of outside linebackers nearing their mid-30s in Suggs and Dumervil.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:Joe Flacco

When the Ravens and Joe Flacco agreed to a six-year, $120MM+ contract following the team’s Super Bowl win three years ago, both sides knew that they’d be back at the negotiating table in 2016. The structure of Flacco’s deal ensured that the cap hit for the first three years (2013-15) averaged about $12MM. For the next three years (2016-18), that average skyrockets to $28MM+, including a $28.55MM cap number for 2016.

The Ravens have said they have a plan to put together their roster for 2016 without touching Flacco’s contract, but as we noted above when we discussed potential cap casualties, it won’t be easy for Baltimore to create significant cap space without doing something with Flacco’s cap charge.

The most obvious solution would be for the Ravens to further extend their quarterback’s contract, beyond 2018. Adding at least two more years to the deal would allow the club to spread a new signing bonus out across five seasons. That would allow the team to give Flacco a significant bonus up front while simultaneously reducing his salary for 2016 and minimizing the effect on the cap in the short term. It may create some issues down the road, but in one fell swoop, a major restructure for Flacco would give the Ravens the flexibility to conduct business in ’16. I expect the two sides to get something done in the coming weeks.

Elsewhere, Jimmy Smith and Terrell Suggs are candidates to have their contracts restructured, though the team would be better off not touching those deals. Some of the potential release candidates mentioned above could also be asked to take pay cuts, which would help out with the cap. But no moves would have the same impact as a Flacco extension.

Speaking of extensions, members of the 2013 draft class are now eligible to have their rookie contracts extended, but that wasn’t a banner year for the Ravens’ scouting department, and I don’t expect the team to be in any rush to lock up Matt Elam or Arthur Brown.

Nonetheless, third-round defensive tackle Brandon Williams is one player the Ravens should explore locking up. Pro Football Focus ranked Williams 21st out of 123 interior defenders in 2015, right behind standouts like Malik Jackson, Marcell Dareus, and Cameron Heyward. If the price is right, the club would be wise to get Williams under contract for a few years beyond 2016.

Will Hill, whose contract also expires after the 2016 season, is another player the Ravens ought to explore a longer-team deal with, assuming the team is confident that his off-field problems won’t resurface. Hill has been suspended three times for violating the NFL’s drug policies.

Overall Outlook:

The Ravens may not have as much talent as they did a few years ago, and they’re certainly no lock to return to the postseason in 2016, but they’re also not as bad as their 5-11 record suggests. Injuries sidelined a handful of the team’s top contributors, and only two of those 11 losses came by more than a single score.

Baltimore’s decision-makers recognize that bad luck played a part in the club’s disastrous 2015 campaign, and while some savvy roster moves will be required to get back above .500 next season, it’s definitely not out of the question. Sorting out their cap situation – including Flacco’s contract – and making the most of a rare top-six draft pick will be keys for the Ravens this offseason as they look to bounce back in 2016.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco 49ers

February 10th, 2016 at 9:28pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Colin Kaepernick, QB: $15,890,753
  2. Ahmad Brooks, OLB: $9,605,000
  3. NaVorro Bowman, ILB: $9,554,000
  4. Joe Staley, T: $8,300,000
  5. Torrey Smith, WR: $7,600,000
  6. Antoine Bethea, S: $6,025,000
  7. Tramaine Brock, CB: $3,880,000
  8. Anthony Davis, T: $3,000,000 (dead money)
  9. Glenn Dorsey, DL: $2,766,668
  10. Eric Reid, S: $2,698,422
  11. Erik Pears, T: $2,350,000
  12. Blaine Gabbert, QB: $2,250,000
  13. Arik Armstead, DL: $2,236,961
  14. Jimmie Ward, S: $1,939,781
  15. Bruce Miller, FB: $1,896,500

Notable coaching/front office changes:

Draft:

Other:

  • Current projected cap room (via Over the Cap): $52.58MM
  • Must exercise or decline fifth-year option for 2017 for S Eric Reid.
  • Signed CFL WR Eric Rogers.
  • Al Guido assuming Paraag Marathe‘s front-office duties (business operations).

Overview:

To say that things did not go as planned for the Niners in 2015 would be a severe understatement. Last offseason, the 49ers parted ways with Jim Harbaugh and opted to promote from within, elevating Jim Tomsula from defensive line coach to head coach. While Tomsula cannot be solely blamed for the team’s struggles last season, he clearly did not have the attention of his team and shortly after New Year’s, he was let go. Harbaugh’s reign included a 44-19-1 regular-season record and three playoff appearances in four years. The Tomsula-led Niners finished the 2015-16 campaign 5-11 (the franchise’s worst mark since 2007) and suffered nine losses by double-digit deficits.Chip Kelly

This time, the 49ers went out-of-house to find their next head coach when they tapped Chip Kelly. The boisterous Kelly enjoyed full personnel control in Philly, but he will have to comfortably co-exist with general manager Trent Baalke and CEO Jed York in San Francisco. Of course, Kelly’s departure from Philadelphia stemmed in part from him wearing out his welcome within the organization, having been at odds with former Eagles GM Howie Roseman.

Kelly was fired last year at the end of his third season coaching the Eagles. During his three seasons as Eagles head coach, Kelly had a solid 26-21 record. However, after consecutive 10-6 seasons, the wheels came off a little in 2015 as the new-look roster, which was supposedly tailored to Kelly’s vision, struggled to produce on the field. Although Kelly only took over final say of Philadelphia’s roster moves from Roseman a year ago, he influenced the team’s moves before then as well, and many talented players left town after not always seeing eye to eye with the head coach. DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin, and Evan Mathis are a few of the players that departed Philadelphia within the last couple years.

The 49ers are hopeful that Kelly can turn things around, but he and Baalke have something of a mountain to climb after the way things turned out last season. San Francisco struggled in every facet of the game, but most notably, the team watched its franchise quarterback go from hero to zero practically overnight. Not long after signing a hefty $114MM extension, Colin Kaepernick struggled mightily and looked nothing like his former self. Eventually, Kaepernick’s struggles led to backup Blaine Gabbert taking over the starting job and, for the most part, playing decently.

The Niners now have to figure out exactly what it is that they have in Kaepernick and whether he’s the right fit for the new regime. While in Philadelphia, Kelly was often connected to Kaepernick and many believed that Kelly saw him as an ideal QB for his offense. However, it appears that may not be the case. Kelly has reportedly only spoken with the QB once since he was hired, and that could be an indication that the coach does not see him as being a part of the team’s future. If Kaepernick is not part of the team’s plans, he would reportedly like to join the Jets, though there are conflicting reports as to whether that interest is being reciprocated by Gang Green.

What can the 49ers do to regain their position as one of the NFC’s most dominant teams? Here’s a look at San Francisco’s offseason needs and potential options.

Key Free Agents:

Nose tackle Ian Williams is last in alphabetical order, but No. 1 on the 49ers’ free agent list this spring. Luckily for the Niners, Williams hasn’t been shy about his desire to sign a new deal in San Francisco. When asked if he wants to re-sign with the 49ers, Williams said, “I would love to. This is where I’ve been. This is where I know guys on the team. This is where I’m comfortable at. I’d love to be back.”

Of course, a new contract for Williams isn’t going to come cheap. The veteran defender enjoyed his best season yet in 2015, racking up 65 total tackles, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, and a sack across 16 games (all starts). Prior to 2015, Williams had a combined 15 games on the gridiron from 2011-2014. Back in January, Jason Fitzgerald of OTC projected that the Niners would lock up the 26-year-old (27 in August) to a three-year deal before the start of free agency. As of this writing, however, the Niners have not gotten that deal done.

Alex BooneOffensive guard Alex Boone stands as another of the 49ers’ top priorities in terms of their own free agents. However, he isn’t coming off of a strong platform year. Boone, who was placed on IR in late December, graded out as a rather average starting guard according to Pro Football Focus. Ironically, Boone was critical of Harbaugh as a coach, but seemed to take a step back under Tomsula.

“I think he just pushed guys too far,” Boone said of Harbaugh back in April 2015. “He wanted too much, demanded too much, expected too much. You know, ‘We gotta go out and do this. We gotta go out and do this. We gotta go out and do this.’’And you’d be like, ‘This guy might be clinically insane. He’s crazy.‘ I think that if you’re stuck in your ways enough, eventually people are just going to say, ‘Listen, we just can’t work with this.'”

The Ohio State product was a second-team All-Pro selection in 2012, but he didn’t look the part in 2015. Still Boone should see a raise over the $3.4MM he earned in 2015. Boone fought tooth and nail for a reworked contract that would prevent the 49ers from using the franchise tag on him but, as it turns out, he did not have the kind of year that would warrant such consideration anyway. We don’t expect Boone to command top-five money for his position, but he should still be in line for a decent payday, whether it comes from San Francisco or another club.

Running back Reggie Bush stands as the biggest household name on the 49ers’ list of free agents, but he is not the highest priority thanks to his age and an injury-shortened 2015. Bush played only five games for the Niners before tearing his left ACL on the concrete at the Edwards Jones Dome in St. Louis. The 31-year-old, who sued the St. Louis Regional Convention and Stadium Authority over his injury in January, rushed for just 28 yards before his season was brought to a premature end. During Super Bowl weekend, Bush told reporters that he plans to continue playing in 2016.

49ers kicker Phil Dawson will turn 41 next month, which would make him one of the NFL’s oldest players, but the 17-year veteran wants to sign a new contract and continue his career next season. Dawson also believes he can still handle kickoff duties, a role the Niners handed over to rookie punter Bradley Pinion this season.

“I miss [kicking off],” Dawson said in December 2015. “I’ve always enjoyed that aspect of the game, and I still feel like I can do it. But Bradley has done a tremendous job, and he’s helped the team. So (there’s) no problem here on that front.”

As of late December, Dawson said he hasn’t spoken to the 49ers about signing an extension with the club. However, he indicated that he wanted to stay in San Francisco.

Veteran wide receiver Anquan Boldin is also expected to hit the open market, as his contract will void this spring. Boldin, 36 in October, looked like a shell of his former self in 2015, posting his lowest yardage total (789) since 2007. Boldin’s next deal will probably be his last, so he may choose to link up with a contender.

Possible Cap Casualties:Colin Kaepernick (vertical)

Of course, this list starts with Kaepernick and his ~$15.9MM cap hit for 2016. After a disastrous 2015, the 49ers are expected to consider all options involving Kaepernick, including dropping him outright and starting from scratch at the position. Kaepernick’s massive contract gives the Niners a great deal of flexibility with rolling salary guarantees that aren’t due until April 1st of each year. Dropping No. 7 could create nearly $8.5MM in cap savings. Alternatively, the 49ers could trade him and try to get something of value in return, even if it’s only a mid- or late-round draft pick.

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers could part ways with linebacker Ahmad Brooks. Brooks, 32 in March, earned a Pro Bowl selection in 2013 but he hasn’t looked like the same guy in the last couple of seasons. In 2015, Brooks had 42 tackles and 6.5 sacks, which is nothing to sneeze at, but the overall production just wasn’t there. Cutting Brooks would save the Niners roughly $6MM, and they’re widely expected to make some sort of move there.

Defensive back Antoine Bethea currently stands as the 49ers’ sixth-highest cap hit at just over $6MM. Like Brooks, Bethea is an ex-Pro Bowler who is no longer justifying his salary. The Niners may want him back for 2016, but it probably won’t be at that price.

Positions Of Need:

The 49ers need to quickly determine whether or not they Kaepernick can get back to his old form. If they’re pessimistic, then the Niners have a number of potential options, though none are slam dunks. If Sam Bradford isn’t retained by the Eagles, one has to imagine that Kelly could push for a reunion with him in San Francisco. Veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick could serve as a solid transitional option for the 49ers, though he is widely expected to reach agreement on a new deal with the Jets prior to the start of free agency.

In the draft, the 49ers could have a crack at a pair of impressive young QBs in Jared Goff (California) and Carson Wentz (North Dakota State). However, there are multiple teams that are looking for their next franchise QB and the Niners may have to move up from No. 7 if they want a shot at either player.

Beyond QB, the 49ers will have to address their offensive line. Obviously, if Boone goes elsewhere, the need becomes that much greater. If Boone stays and Anthony Davis opts to return from retirement, then the need to bolster the O-Line becomes much less severe. Of course, with so much time away from the game, it’s not a certainty that Davis will be able to pick up where he left off. The 49ers should also get a boost from having Daniel Kilgore at the starting center position rather than Marcus Martin, who had a rough year by just about any metric.

Boldin could be heading elsewhere this spring and even if he stays in San Francisco, he’s not the needle-mover that he once was. The 49ers signed Torrey Smith to a five-year, $40MM deal last March with $22MM guaranteed and, so far, that deal looks like a mistake. One has to imagine that the Niners will be seeking help at wide receiver. With major cap room to work with, could the 49ers get in the mix for expected free agent Alshon Jeffery? Ole Miss standout Laquon Treadwell is expected to be on the board when the 49ers pick at No. 7, so he could also be an option.

The 49ers also have some serious question marks on the defensive line. Defensive end Arik Armstead did not impress in his rookie season and defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey is recovering from a torn ACL. And, as discussed earlier, Ian Williams is slated to hit the open market.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Safety Eric Reid is an extension candidate for the 49ers, but the club also holds a fifth-year option on his deal, so San Francisco doesn’t necessarily have to get a deal done this offseason. As it stands, Reid carries just a ~$2.7MM cap hit for the 2016 season and the Niners could give him a significant pay bump while also keeping him under contract at a potentially under-market price. In 2015, Reid started all 16 games, racking up 66 tackles and 7 pass deflections.

The Niners could also explore an extension with quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Even if Gabbert isn’t used as the Niners’ starting quarterback, he does hold value as a strong backup if he continues to perform like he did in 2015.

Overall Outlook:

Armed with a boatload of cap space, the 49ers have an opportunity to give coach Chip Kelly a completely revamped roster in 2016. However, they need to spend their money more wisely than they did in 2015 if they hope to make an impact in the NFC West.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Jacksonville Jaguars

February 8th, 2016 at 10:15pm CST by Luke Adams

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Jared Odrick, DE: $8,000,000
  2. Julius Thomas, TE: $7,300,000
  3. Luke Joeckel, T: $6,745,963
  4. Jermey Parnell, T: $6,500,000
  5. Davon House, CB: $6,000,000
  6. Blake Bortles, QB: $5,633,128
  7. Zane Beadles, G: $5,500,000
  8. Dante Fowler Jr., DE: $5,338,691
  9. Sen’Derrick Marks, DT: $4,675,000
  10. Paul Posluszny, LB: $4,604,166
  11. Chris Clemons, DE: $4,000,000
  12. Roy Miller, DT: $3,975,000
  13. Dan Skuta, ILB: $3,600,000
  14. Toby Gerhart, RB: $3,500,000
  15. Tyson Alualu, DL: $3,000,000

Notable coaching/front office changes:

Draft:

  • No. 5 overall pick
  • Acquired sixth-round pick from Steelers in deal for K Josh Scobee.

Other:

Overview:

During a season in which it seemed like no AFC South team wanted to win the division, the Jaguars hung around for most of the year — with three weeks left in the 2015 campaign, Jacksonville was 5-8, just a single game behind the 6-7 Texans and Colts. Houston won its final three contests, while the Jags lost their final three, so the final AFC South standings show 11 losses and another third-place finish for Jacksonville. However, the team took some promising steps forward.Blake Bortles

On the offensive side of the ball, 2014 first-rounder Blake Bortles showed that he may just be capable of being the Jaguars’ long-time answer at quarterback. In his sophomore year, Bortles racked up 4,428 yards and 35 touchdowns. Of course, he also led the NFL in interceptions and sacks, so it’s probably a little early to be penciling him into the Hall of Fame, but there’s some reason for optimism for the former third overall pick going forward.

While the Jaguars made strides on offense, the defense continued to struggle. 2015 first-rounder Dante Fowler Jr. didn’t play a single snap in the preseason or regular season during his rookie year, having torn his ACL on the first day of rookie minicamp. With Fowler on the way back, and the Jags expected to make additional moves this offseason to shore up the defense, head coach Gus Bradley earned another shot to turn around the club’s fortunes in 2016.

Although the Jags extended Bradley’s contract through 2017, that was mostly a ceremonial move, meant to avoid having him enter a lame-duck season. If he’s unable to get the team into playoff contention, or at least to .500, Caldwell likely won’t finish out that contract in ’17. So it’s a crucial offseason for general manager Dave Caldwell, who will also be on the hot seat if the Jaguars don’t make further progress on the field this fall.

Key Free Agents:

Fortunately for the Jaguars, none of the team’s key players are eligible for free agency. In fact, there are no free-agents-to-be that would leave the club with a huge hole if they departed this winter. Jacksonville heads into March with such a huge chunk of cap room that the team shouldn’t have a problem re-signing anyone it wants to though, even if it has to overpay by $1MM or $2MM to make it happen.

Veteran center Stefen Wisniewski is one player the Jaguars figure to explore bringing back if the price is right. Wisniewski was the full-time starting center in Jacksonville in 2015 and was adequate, particularly as a pass blocker. Considering Bortles has been sacked more than 100 times in his first two NFL seasons, the Jaguars ought to be aiming for more than “adequate” along the offensive line this offseason, but if the team can’t bring aboard an impact center, there’s nothing wrong with re-signing Wisniewski, who is at least familiar with the system now.

Marcedes Lewis took a pay cut last year to remain with the Jaguars, and even though he led the team’s tight ends in offensive snaps in 2015, his role in the offense continued to diminish. Despite not missing a game, Lewis grabbed just 16 balls for 226 yards and a touchdown, making it his least productive season since his rookie year. Unless the Jaguars highly value Lewis’ blocking abilities and he’s willing to further decrease his salary, the two sides could go their separate ways this offseason, with the Jags seeking out a blocking specialist to complement Julius Thomas.

Many teams wouldn’t consider a punter one of their top free agent priorities of the winter, but considering Jacksonville used a third-round pick on Bryan Anger back in 2012, the team will likely try to get him locked up to a new deal. Veteran quarterback Chad Henne could also be re-signed, if he’s comfortable continuing to back up Bortles. Assuming the Jaguars like the work Henne has done as a veteran mentor for Bortles in his first two years, they’ll probably be willing to continue paying him like one of the league’s top No. 2 QBs.

The Jaguars’ restricted free agents, Ryan Davis and Abry Jones, will likely continue to be part-time players on the defensive line, so assigning them low-end RFA tenders makes sense, especially since those salaries aren’t fully guaranteed.

Possible Cap Casualties:

As one of two NFL teams below the spending floor heading into the 2016 season, the Jaguars don’t really need to cut any players, particularly given their incredible amount of cap room.Toby Gerhart However, that doesn’t mean the team should simply hang onto well-compensated players who won’t necessarily earn those salaries.

Running back Toby Gerhart has carried the ball just 121 times since signing with the Jaguars as a free agent two years ago, and with T.J. Yeldon and Denard Robinson solidly in the mix, Gerhart likely won’t have much of a role going forward. The team could clear his entire $3.5MM cap charge from its books by cutting him this offseason.

On the defensive side of the ball, Chris Clemons and Dan Skuta are in a similar boat to Gerhart — neither player has any dead money left on his deal, so the Jaguars could create $4MM and $3.6MM in respective cap savings by releasing them. Clemons will turn 35 in October and wasn’t productive in 2015. His three sacks were his lowest total since he became a starter in 2010, and Pro Football Focus ranked him dead last among 110 qualified edge defenders.

As for Skuta, he was a little more effective, especially against the run, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Jaguars hang onto him, since $3.6MM isn’t an exorbitant cap hit, particularly for a team with so much flexibility. But he didn’t play a ton of snaps in his first year in Jacksonville, and if the club adds linebacker depth that further marginalizes Skuta, he could become a cap casualty.

Positions Of Need:

Bortles had plenty of weapons at his disposal in 2015, with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns both racking up 1,000-yard seasons, while Thomas and Yeldon caught their share of balls as well. The club could use a blocking tight end, and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to add a receiving back — Yeldon did well as a pass-catcher out of the backfield in his rookie season, but a dedicated third-down back capable of bailing out Bortles would be a nice addition. Lance Dunbar might be a good fit in free agency.

The majority of the Jaguars’ offensive upgrades should happen along the offensive line rather than at the skill positions. On paper, the offensive line doesn’t look bad. At tackle, Luke Joeckel was the second overall pick in the 2013 draft, and Jermey Parnell was a significant free agent investment a year ago. At guard, A.J. Cann was a day-two pick in 2015, and Zane Beadles was the team’s big free agent addition on the line two years ago. Wisniewski, who is facing free agency, was solid, if not spectacular, during his first season with the Jags.

Still, Beadles and Parnell haven’t played quite as well as the Jaguars were hoping for when they rewarded them with nice paydays. Joeckel, meanwhile, isn’t the kind of stalwart left tackle you’d expect to land with a top-two pick. Even if the Jags plan to keep their 2015 starters around, the club should look to bring in at least one or two more viable options to challenge those incumbent starters.

One option, with Wisniewski a few weeks away from reaching the open market, could be Browns center Alex Mack. Though he’s technically not a free agent yet, Mack can opt out of his contract, a fact that the Jaguars know very well — it was Jacksonville that included that opt-out clause in the offer sheet Mack signed with the club two years ago. If he opts out, Mack will be an unrestricted free agent, so the Browns won’t have the option of matching Jacksonville’s offer this time around.

Another potential target in free agency could be Seahawks left tackle Russell Okung. Before becoming the head coach in Jacksonville, Gus Bradley saw first-hand as an assistant in Seattle what Okung was capable of, and the veteran lineman – who is representing himself – appears interested in testing the open market, having emailed all 32 teams recently about his potential availability.

Although the Jaguars could look to shore up their offensive line, most of their work in free agency and the draft figures to focus on the defensive side of the ball. Fowler’s debut will help improve the pass rush, but that’s still an area the club should look to improve. One free agent that should be of particular interest to the Jags is Seahawks linebacker Bruce Irvin, who was a first-round pick in 2012, Bradley’s final year as Seattle’s defensive coordinator. Irvin recorded eight sacks in his rookie year under Bradley, a number he hasn’t matched or exceeded since, and would be a nice fit in Jacksonville.

In the secondary, the Jaguars added Davon House a year ago, but still lack any real impact defensive backs, making the position group a top priority this winter. Armed with a ton of cap space and a pressing need in the secondary, the Jaguars can afford to be significant players on the top defensive backs available.

At cornerback, that means perhaps targeting players like Sean Smith and Janoris Jenkins, assuming Josh Norman is franchised or re-signed by the Panthers. If the Jags feel like going after another ex-Packer, Casey Hayward is another worthwhile option. At safety, Eric Weddle, Tashaun Gipson, Rodney McLeod, Walter Thurmond, and others might be among Jacksonville’s targets.

Considering the team potentially needs to add two or three starting defensive backs, it would make sense to use the fifth overall pick on cornerback Jalen Ramsey, if he’s available. ESPN’s Mel Kiper and Todd McShay both have Ramsey going to the Jags in their latest mock drafts, citing his athleticism and his ability to play either cornerback or safety as reasons why he’s worthy of being a top-five pick this spring. Heading into the 2016 season with Fowler rushing the passer and Ramsey roaming the secondary wouldn’t entirely fix Jacksonville’s defense, but it would be a great start.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

While the Jaguars will have to spend some money within the next 12 months or so to reach the 89% floor for NFL teams, that doesn’t mean the team has to go crazy in free agency this year. Teams don’t have to reach that spending floor until March 2017, so extensions for players like Bortles and Robinson could factor into the equation. Of course, as members of the 2014 draft class, those players aren’t eligible for new contracts until next winter, so the Jags won’t be focusing on those extensions quite yet.Denard Robinson

The Jaguars’ 2013 draftees are eligible for extensions immediately, but that year’s draft class wasn’t exactly a strong one for the team. Joeckel probably hasn’t earned a big-money deal, and second-round safety Johnathan Cyprien ranked as Pro Football Focus’ second-worst safety out of 88 qualified players this past season. A mid-round pick like Denard Robinson could sign an extension this winter, but as a part-time running back, he’d be in line for a pretty modest second contract.

As for contracts that could be restructured, Zane Beadles‘ deal jumps out as an obvious candidate. His performance in his first two seasons in Jacksonville has been underwhelming, and now that he has no dead money left on his contract, the Jags have some leverage to ask him to take a pay cut in exchange for keeping his roster spot and getting some guaranteed money up front. If he refuses, the Jaguars have the cap flexibility to cut him and simply add guard to the list of positions they’ll be looking to upgrade in free agency.

The Jaguars’ huge amount of cap space and lack of immediate extension candidates really puts the team in a strong position heading into the 2016 offseason. Obviously, the club doesn’t want to hand out a bunch of extravagant contracts this winter and put itself in a position where it can’t afford to pay players like Bortles, Robinson, Hurns, and Fowler down the line. However, those players are still so far away from breaking the bank that the Jaguars can afford to roll the dice on several free agents this winter, structuring those contracts in such a way that by the time Bortles and others start getting expensive, this winter’s signees can be cut or restructured at a minimal cost, if necessary.

It’s what we saw the team do last year with players like House, Skuta, and Parnell, and while none of those players really had the sort of breakout season the Jags were hoping for, the team still has so much flexibility that it could try its luck on another round of potential impact players this year.

Overall Outlook:

The Jaguars haven’t made the postseason since 2007, and their 14 combined wins over the last four years were fewer than the 2015 Panthers put up in one year. Still, this looks like it could be a team on the rise. With Bortles continuing to develop, another top-five pick debuting along with Fowler this season, and a truckload of cap room for the Jags to make a splash or two in free agency, fans in Jacksonville can start to glimpse the light at the end of the tunnel. If they can make a few savvy moves this offseason, there’s no reason to think that the Jags can’t be a potential dark-horse playoff contender in 2016.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Super Bowl Players In Contract Years

February 8th, 2016 at 11:03am CST by Dallas Robinson

On Sunday, we learned the potential fates of two upcoming free agents who appeared in the Super Bowl, as both the Broncos and Panthers intend to use the franchise tag on linebacker Von Miller and cornerback Josh Norman, respectively. While Miller and Norman were the most high-profile pending FAs playing in last night’s contest — they ranked first and fifth, respectively, in our most recent 2016 free agent power rankings — they aren’t the only players headed for the open market. Von Miller (featured)

Denver has a whopping 25 players set to hit free agency (nearly half its roster), while Carolina figures to have a bit less turnover, as it has only 16 pending free agents. The entire list for both clubs is below, with restricted free agents (RFA) and exclusive rights agents (ERFA) included (those labels are explained here).

Carolina Panthers

Denver Broncos

PFR Originals: 1/31/16 – 2/7/16

February 7th, 2016 at 4:00pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

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