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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Vikings

By | at February 29, 2016 10:11 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Mike Wallace, WR: $11,500,000
  2. Matt Kalil, T: $11,096,000
  3. Adrian Peterson, RB: $11,000,000
  4. Everson Griffen, DE: $8,200,000
  5. Phil Loadholt, T: $7,750,000
  6. Kyle Rudolph, TE: $7,300,000
  7. Linval Joseph, DT: $6,350,000
  8. John Sullivan, C: $5,833,333
  9. Harrison Smith, S: $5,278,000
  10. Brian Robison, DE: $5,250,000
  11. Captain Munnerlyn, CB: $4,583,334
  12. Brandon Fusco, G: $4,050,000
  13. Anthony Barr, OLB: $3,475,526
  14. Shaun Hill, QB: $3,250,000
  15. Trae Waynes, CB: $2,941,901

Notable coaching/front office moves:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

The Vikings took the next step in a quick rebuild and clinched their first NFC North championship since the Brett Favre-led 2009 squad secured the title en route to the conference title game. Blair Walsh‘s missed 27-yard field goal in the final seconds of Minnesota’s Wild Card game concluded the team’s march and presided over the Vikes’ accomplishments in the eyes of many, but judging by where the team was when Mike Zimmer was hired in 2014, the ex-Bengals DC’s second season in Minneapolis was a rousing success.

Most of the players responsible for the Vikings’ 11-5 campaign will return; Minnesota doesn’t face the kind of free agency gridlock some of its playoff-qualifying brethren are encountering as the 2015 league year concludes.NFL: Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams

Adrian Peterson‘s threats of not playing for the Vikings again, or trade demands that never materialized, are in the past now. The running back remains the team’s offensive centerpiece despite venturing into his age-31 season. Peterson’s three rushing titles are the most since Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith each finished with four between 1990-97. The Vikings’ workhorse back winning rushing crowns seven years apart also matches Sanders, who led the league in ground gains in 1990 and 1997. Peterson earned this honor on the fewest carries of his three NFL-leading seasons, at 327, but even though he was a healthy inactive essentially for 15 games in 2014 – preserving his body to some extent – All Day’s workloads should be monitored at his age.

The Vikings’ aerial attack, however, did not take flight, with Teddy Bridgewater failing to build on the promise he showed as a rookie. Bridgewater threw just 14 touchdown passes and largely operated like a low-level game manager in the Peterson-fueled offense.

Stefon Diggs looks to have carved a spot in Minnesota’s starting lineup going forward, while trade acquisition Mike Wallace sputtered and may well have punched a ticket out of the Twin Cities. Injuries on the offensive line emerged again, but Joe Berger enjoyed a standout slate filling in for John Sullivan. Rookie T.J. Clemmings didn’t exactly lock down the right tackle job for the future did receive 17 starts worth of seasoning in place of Phil Loadholt. A longtime backup, Berger graded as Pro Football Focus’ second-best center and best run-blocking snapper.

Defensively, Minnesota finished in the middle of the pack but had to compensate for injuries to their best three defenders in Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith, who combined to miss nine games. All three were PFF marvels, with Smith ranking as the analytics site’s best safety — by far — and Joseph’s standout season slotting in behind only Aaron Donald and J.J. Watt among interior defensive linemen. A dynamic talent who has displayed elite abilities in pass rush and coverage, Barr rated only behind Luke Kuechly among non-rush linebackers.

These three are under contract for 2016, with Barr and Joseph signed through 2018, pending the Vikings eventually picking up the outside backer’s fifth-year option. Joseph’s contract in particular looks like a bargain. The 27-year-old’s the ninth-highest-paid 4-3 defensive tackle at $6.25MM per season, signing his deal a year before Ndamukong Suh and Marcell Dareus inked accords paying them $19.06MM and $15.85MM per year, respectively.

Despite only finishing with the NFL’s 14th-best defensive DVOA, the Vikings have a strong defensive core around which to build.

Key Free Agents:

Most of the Vikings’ key expiring contracts come on defense, but none of the team’s potential defectors are impact players at this point.

Chad Greenway (Vertical)Arriving in the 2006 first round, Chad Greenway is the longest-tenured Viking. The former Iowa standout’s started 135 games in his career, including 12 last season, but is the least important of the team’s starting backers at this point and wouldn’t warrant any kind of significant investment on a team with needs elsewhere. Greenway’s said he’d like to re-sign with the Vikings, and Zimmer believes he’ll be back. But it would likely be a one-year pact for the 33-year-old, so the team needs to line up a successor either way.

Safety Robert Blanton enjoyed an above-average 2014 season as a starter, but fellow UFA Andrew Sendejo beat him out for the job last season. The latter, however, was the fourth-worst full-time safety in the league in 2015, in PFF’s view. Neither is worthy of much investment going forward. Minnesota will probably look elsewhere to add talent to further accentuate Smith’s elite skills.

The Vikings’ decision on Mike Harris should warrant more consideration. A 16-game starter for the first time, Harris delivered a quality season at right guard. Playing two seasons in Minnesota, the 27-year-old Harris helped hold together a line that endured staggering losses. Harris possesses versatility as well, having seen extensive time at tackle and guard, and will make for an interesting free agent as a result. The Vikings are already paying Brandon Fusco $4.85MM per season as one of the team’s four offensive linemen playing on a second or third Minnesota contract. A Harris accord may not cost quite that much, but after what he showed last season, he won’t be too much cheaper.

Terence Newman played well over his one-year contract and could be brought back. But the No. 5 overall pick in 2003 would be the oldest defensive back in the game next season — and possibly its oldest defensive player should James Harrison opt to retire — if he chooses to play again, turning 37 before the season starts.

The Vikes have invested well at cornerback, with two first-rounders, Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes, expected to start or see extensive time together next season. Captain Munnerlyn, PFF’s top Minnesota corner last season, is set for the final season of his three-year contract as well. This won’t rule out a Newman re-up, as he won’t cost much and will likely be available on a one-year pact, but there are other options out there. Zimmer’s former protege in Cincinnati, Leon Hall, could be a target, with the Bengals having invested even more than the Vikings at corner and Hall looming as a 31-year-old UFA.

Kenrick Ellis served as decent depth, but the Vikings are well-stocked on their defensive interior. Another team in need of a potential starter could easily pry away the former Jets third-round pick.

These being Minnesota’s biggest free agents illustrates the solid footing on which the Vikings currently stand. Determining the futures of these UFAs are far from the biggest decisions the team must make this offseason.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Vikings have some options, devoid of financial repercussions, to shed extensive salary if they so choose.

Mike Wallace currently has the team’s highest cap charge for 2016. However, it’s highly unlikely he’ll enter the season with this status, and it’s very possible the deep threat could be looking for a fourth NFL employer soon. Rick Spielman is planning to meet with Wallace’s agent this week in hopes of convincing him to take a pay cut. This strategy didn’t take in Miami, eventually forcing the trade that sent him north, but Wallace may be more receptive this time around considering the season he just compiled.

Wallace, who will turn 30 this August, is coming off by far his worst slate, catching just 39 passes for 473 yards (283 fewer than his previous career-low figure). The former third-round pick can probably still be a productive receiver; he snared at least five touchdown passes and gained no fewer than 756 yards in his first six seasons. But accepting a pay reduction will almost certainly be his only path back to the Vikings.

Wallace has no guaranteed money left on the lavish contract he initially signed with the Dolphins in 2013, and the eighth-year target acknowledged his contract and substandard year could make him a one-and-done Viking. The team only gave up a fifth-round pick to acquire Wallace last March.Matt Kalil

Minnesota’s second-highest cap number belongs to Matt Kalil, as the Vikings exercised their fifth-year option, worth over $11MM, on their inconsistent left tackle last season. The Vikings could save that entire figure by cutting Kalil, whom they’re reportedly torn on retaining. The promise of Kalil’s rookie season, when he booked a Pro Bowl berth and gave Vikings fans the impression their left-edge spot was set for the decade’s remainder, has not resurfaced much in the three years since. But the Vikings don’t have a viable alternative to Kalil at this point, making a release riskier than shedding Wallace’s salary.

Rick Spielman‘s first draft choice as GM, Kalil improved some last season, but was still a below-average tackle and as of now will be paid like an elite blocker. Among offensive lineman, only D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Tyron Smith feature higher 2016 cap holds than 2012’s No. 4 overall pick does right now.

Cutting Kalil and Wallace could nearly double Minnesota’s projected cap space, ballooning it to more than $45MM, and would allow further bolstering of an already strong roster.

Phil Loadholt won’t generate that kind of cash influx if he’s released, but that’s a possibility as well. The Vikings could create $6MM in additional space by releasing their longtime right tackle.

Loadholt – whose current situation is a lower-profile version of Ryan Clady‘s in Denver – has missed the last 21 Vikings regular-season games because of severe injuries. A torn pectoral ended Loadholt’s 2014 season and a string of five consecutive seasons in which he’d started at least 15 contests, and the torn Achilles he suffered before last season shelved him in 2015. Like Clady, Loadholt proved productive prior to his health issues, grading out as a top-five tackle in 2013 (per PFF) and playing well in ’14 before going down with an injury.

A former second-round pick who recently turned 30, Loadholt is owed a career-high $7.75MM as part of the final year of the four-year contract extension he signed in 2013. The former upper-echelon right tackle could very well be released or, like Wallace, asked to take a pay cut.

Positions Of Need:

One thing working for Loadholt’s status in the Twin Cities: T.J. Clemmings‘ struggles as a rookie on the right side. The reconfigured line sans John Sullivan and Loadholt — which was the game’s only quintet to start all 16 games together — provided Teddy Bridgewater with the second-worst pass protection in football last season, according to Pro Football Focus. Clemmings came in at No. 67 among PFF’s graded full-time tackles last season. While Mike Harris thrived on moving from tackle to guard, Brandon Fusco didn’t take to left guard as well as his previous right-side spot.

The Vikings now have the 30-year-old Sullivan and Loadholt — who each started from 2009-14, bridging the gap from Favre to Bridgewater — back but also no clear starting spot for Joe Berger. A solution could be sliding the veteran backup to left guard and moving Fusco back to the right side at which he excelled, where he can replace the departing Harris. Clemmings, who is also an option at right guard after he worked there last summer as a rookie, didn’t look ready to start full-time at right tackle based on his 2015 performance. But if the Vikings decide the $6MM in cap savings outweighs Loadholt’s potential to remain effective, Clemmings could have a clearer route to a starting gig.

Nevertheless, some additional youth will be required here, either in the form of a free agent in search of his second contract or an early-round rookie.

It’s possible the Vikings could have three starters in their 30s blocking for a 31-year-old running back. If Sullivan — who like Loadholt proved durable from 2009-14 — can return to the level at which he played before the Vikings awarded him with a third contract last April, this unit could be a strong outfit in the short term. Sullivan is due to take up reasonable $5.83MM cap numbers the next two seasons. But relying on two injury comebacks from early-30s performers is obviously not ideal.

In order to line up long-term options on the offensive line, the Vikings will need to add some reinforcements soon. Minnesota has enjoyed success in finding linemen through the draft, but amazingly hasn’t selected an interior-line cog in the top three rounds since 2006. If that streak continues – which it probably shouldn’t considering where some of the gems the team drafted are at in their careers – a deep guard class could factor into that decision.

With both Sullivan and Berger under contract, center doesn’t make much sense as a priority in free agency, but the other spots could use the depth. As far as second contract-seeking guards go, Alex Boone, Ramon Foster, Brandon Brooks, Jeff Allen, and obviously Kelechi Osemele represent the notable free agent options, along with Harris. This would be an area to target for veteran assistance.

Evan Mathis, Jahri Evans and Richie Incognito are also available, but the Vikings as of now already have too many 30-somethings on second or third deals up front.

At tackle, Minnesota may need more help. Mitchell Schwartz and Andre Smith are the top unrestricted options, but Schwartz in particular would require a significant financial commitment — something closer to the mammoth extension Lane Johnson just received ($11.25MM AAV) than the position’s second tier of Bryan Bulaga/Jermey Parnell/Austin Howard/Marcus Gilbert, who play for around $6MM on average. Considering both Kalil and Loadholt are carrying top-five salaries at their respective positions, adding another pricey edge blocker will not be realistic as long as they’re both still around.

Joe Barksdale, who was about the only good thing involved with the Chargers’ front in 2015, is another potential target for the Vikings at tackle. Barksdale’s market stalled last spring, but he’s only 27 and has played 16 games in each of the past three seasons.

If Minnesota wants to shake things up and move on from Kalil, the non-Cordy Glenn contingent on the left side doesn’t include a bevy of fits. Donald Penn wouldn’t provide the kind of youthful complement the team needs. That leaves Russell Okung as perhaps the top prize if Glenn gets the Bills’ franchise tag, which will make Okung awfully expensive.

The Vikings will have to make interesting choices here, as this is one of the more fluid offensive line situations in football. As of now, none of the starting five are locked into a job in 2016.

If Mike Wallace isn’t receptive to a pay cut, it might be a positive for the Vikings’ wideouts. The team will bring back Stefon Diggs and the suddenly viable Jarius Wright, and Charles Johnson should be given another chance to recapture the form he showed in the second half of 2014, but Minnesota will still will look to upgrade on the outside.

In terms of a downfield threat, Wallace still fits the bill in theory with his elite speed, but he didn’t have a single reception of 35+ yards in 2015. Travis Benjamin appears to be headed toward the market after talks broke down with the Browns, and the fifth-year breakout performer could provide an upgrade. However, Benjamin doesn’t have much to go on besides his contract season. Seattle may allow Jermaine Kearse to reach free agency, and he’s a more consistent target than Benjamin, who suddenly went off for 68 receptions last year on a terrible Browns team after combining for 41 in his first three campaigns. Kearse, or someone like Rishard Matthews, would bring a solid presence opposite Diggs.

Marvin Jones‘ history working against Mike Zimmer charges in practice in Cincinnati could lead somewhere, but he doesn’t profile as a downfield receiver the Vikings ideally need to supplement Diggs. As for Mohamed Sanu, he’s a better receiver than Cordarrelle Patterson, but his penchant for gadget-style gains may be too close to Patterson’s ill-fitting repertoire for the Vikings to pursue him.

Regardless of the moves the Vikings make to address the wide receiver position, it will be on Bridgewater to elevate the team’s passing game into an above-average attack instead of what the Vikings put on display last season.

On the defensive side of the ball, rookie UDFA Anthony Harris showed some promise toward the end of last season, but the Vikings will look to address their other safety spot. With Harrison Smith likely set for an extension, Minnesota won’t look to add a top-shelf safety. But there are plenty of quality options out there this year, including two with a recent history in Zimmer’s system.

Both of the Bengals’ starting safeties, Reggie Nelson and George Iloka, are headed for free agency, and each played extensive snaps under Zimmer’s tutelage. Despite the fact that the 32-year-old Nelson led the NFL in picks last season, Iloka may warrant a bigger contract due to entering just his age-26 season. He has been a three-year starter, lining up with the first-stringers in 16 games for the 2013 Bengals under Zimmer. Iloka also enjoyed a balanced 2015, showing a near-equal acumen for deterring the pass and the run. An ideal complement for Smith, Iloka’s best years are probably ahead of him. The former fifth-round pick’s connection to Zimmer makes Iloka worth monitoring in Minnesota.

If Nelson’s market dries up due to concerns about his age, a short-term deal to team him with Smith wouldn’t be a bad idea. In the event one of Cincinnati’s back-line bastions doesn’t make his way to Minneapolis, the Lions’ Isa Abdul-Quddus or the Cardinals’ Rashad Johnson could be options. Still, with Smith in the fold, this isn’t a pressing need.

Harrison SmithExtension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Already secured via a comfortable fifth-year option, Harrison Smith will be a cornerstone player in Minnesota for the foreseeable future. His first Pro Bowl berth was overdue, and an extension should be a formality. Rick Spielman will look to ensure that the second selection of his GM tenure stays visible in Minnesota, since a player with a combination of Smith’s versatility and play-making skills doesn’t come along often.

Smith will rightfully look for top-tier safety money, with contracts like Devin McCourty‘s, Jairus Byrd‘s and Eric Berry‘s forthcoming deal as comparables. Both McCourty and Byrd signed for at least $9MM AAV in 2014 and ’15, respectively. With the cap rising at the rate it is, Smith could justifiably ask to exceed those accords and join Earl Thomas as the only other safety averaging an eight-figure salary.

Spielman also should have relatively quick decisions on exercising the fifth-year options for Xavier Rhodes and Sharrif Floyd, with the latter playing alongside Linval Joseph to make up one of the game’s top interior-line tandems. Rhodes still profiles as the Vikings’ No. 1 corner despite his inconsistent 2015. He should be given this season and next to establish the value of his second contract. The prospective prices for both of these moves — fifth-year options for defensive tackles selected at Nos. 11-32 cost $6.15MM in 2015, with cornerbacks taken outside the top 10 taking up $7.51MM of a team’s cap — aren’t deal-breakers by any means.

The team’s fifth-year option decision regarding Cordarrelle Patterson should be just as easy. Patterson hauled in just two passes despite being healthy for 16 games, making his 2015 campaign one of the more anonymous seasons by a first-round wideout playing for the team that selected him. The former first-team All-Pro return man has not proven worthy of an extra year’s worth of Minnesota-based development. With Patterson’s 2017 option year set to cost at least $7.3MM, this is a non-starter.

Overall Outlook:

The Vikings have some intriguing choices to make, but possess the nucleus to battle the Packers and repeat as NFC North champions. If the Vikings can solve their offensive line matrix and continue to reap rewards from employing one of the league’s greatest running backs, their running game and their promising defense – which will return mostly intact – gives them one of the NFC’s best rosters.

Teddy Bridgewater‘s development will be essential for catalyzing Minnesota’s pursuit of further playoff advancement, but there’s a lot of reason for optimism up north as the new league year approaches.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2 comments Minnesota Vikings Offseason Outlook PFR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Seahawks

By | at February 28, 2016 9:49 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Russell Wilson, QB: $18,542,000
  2. Richard Sherman, CB: $14,769,000
  3. Marshawn Lynch, RB: $11,500,000 (will reduce to $5MM if/when retirement becomes official)
  4. Earl Thomas, S: $9,900,000
  5. Jimmy Graham, TE: $9,000,000
  6. Michael Bennett, DE: $7,000,000
  7. Cliff Avril, DE: $6,500,000
  8. K.J. Wright, OLB: $6,250,000
  9. Kam Chancellor, S: $6,100,000
  10. Bobby Wagner, ILB: $6,068,750
  11. Doug Baldwin, WR: $5,600,000
  12. Steven Hauschka, K: $3,525,000
  13. Cary Williams, CB: $2,333,334 (dead money)
  14. Luke Willson, TE: $1,691,633
  15. Paul Richardson, WR: $1,285,319

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • No major changes.

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

The 2015-16 campaign represented a step back in bottom-line results for the Seahawks, who won the fewest regular-season games of the four-year Russell Wilson era (10) and were unable to extend their streak of consecutive Super Bowl appearances to three.

Still, the Seahawks clinched a wild-card berth and made the playoffs for the fourth straight time — an accomplishment only four other clubs have matched during the same span. They also racked up top-five finishes in total offense, defense and point differential, and ranked first in Football Outsiders’ regular-season DVOA metric. Add all of that up, and it doesn’t look as if the Seahawks’ championship window closed when the NFC-winning Panthers ended their season in the divisional round.

On the other hand, the window apparently has closed on the 10-year career of running back Marshawn Lynch, one of the best, most "<strongiconic players in Seahawks history. Lynch and his agent have both made it known that he’s retiring, and general manager John Schneider spoke in the past tense about “Beast Mode” on Wednesday (link via The Seattle Times’ Bob Condotta).

“When you talk about when we got here (in 2010) it was all about establishing this toughness, this bully mentality with our acquisition, and he really helped us do that — on the defensive side of the ball, too — it wasn’t just about how he ran the football,” Schneider said.

Originally acquired from Buffalo for pennies on the dollar (two late-round draft picks), Lynch made four Pro Bowls in Seattle and was the driving force behind its offense for most of his five-plus-year career there. In each of his four 16-game seasons as a Seahawk, Lynch finished with at least 280 carries, 1,200 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. The 29-year-old went out with a whimper, though, as injuries limited him to career lows in games (seven), carries (111), ground yards (417) and per-rush average (3.8) last season.

In hindsight, it’s possible Lynch’s anticlimactic going-out party was a blessing in disguise for the Seahawks, who are now accustomed to life without him and may have found an excellent successor in Thomas Rawls. As a rookie last season, the undrafted free agent from Central Michigan burst on the scene with 830 rushing yards on a sterling 5.6 YPC average. However, Rawls succumbed to a fractured ankle in December and Schneider indicated Wednesday that the soon-to-be 23-year-old will have to earn a starting job in 2016.

“He definitely has the talent to do it,” said Schneider. “But we’re going to get a couple of people in there to compete with him.”

Running back is one of several positions Schneider will focus on this offseason as he tries to improve the already formidable Seahawks. And once Lynch is officially in the club’s rear-view mirror, Schneider will have an extra $6.5MM with which to work.

Key Free Agents:

The Seahawks are chock-full of unsigned players (31), but 14 of those individuals are either exclusive rights free agents or restricted free agents. That means the team isn’t necessarily in danger of losing any of them (the ERFAs will automatically stay under team control if they’re tendered an offer). However, the same isn’t true in regards to the Seahawks’ pending unrestricted free agents, several of whom have played important roles for the club in recent years and could be weeks from finding new homes. Left tackle Russell Okung and linebacker Bruce Irvin are the most integral of the bunch.

Since the Seahawks drafted him sixth overall in 2010, Okung has started in all 72 of his career regular-season appearances and earned a Pro Bowl berth (2012). The problem is that injuries have caused the 28-year-old to miss a quarter (24) of 96 possible contests. He also hasn’t played a full 16-game season and is currently on the mend from recent left shoulder surgery. Okung has been effective when healthy, though, and is aiming to cash in as one of the top tackles in this year’s free agent class.

Okung, who is acting as his own agent, called staying in Seattle “very possible” earlier this week, but he added, “I know my value, and I’m not going to settle for anything less than that.” As neither an elite tackle nor a durable one, Okung probably isn’t in line for the $13.706MM franchise tag. That means a multiyear deal is likely the only way for Seattle to keep Okung, whose next contract shouldn’t greatly exceed his expiring one.

Okung entered the league before the rookie cap was in place and signed for $48.5MM total, netting just over $8MM per year. Those marks currently rank seventh and 11th, respectively, among left tackles. A reasonable benchmark for Okung’s next accord could be the five-year agreement Branden Albert inked with the Dolphins as a free agent in 2014. Albert is now a top-10 left tackle in total value ($47MM, eighth), yearly value ($9.4MM, ninth) and guaranteed money ($20MM, seventh). Of course, with the cap having risen more than $22MM since Albert signed, there’s a chance Okung will surpass those marks.

Irvin, meanwhile, is only scheduled for free agency because the Seahawks chose last spring to decline his fifth-year option for 2016. Had they exercised it, Irvin would have made $7.8MM this year. The Seahawks’ decision initially upset Irvin, who went on a Twitter tirade, though head coach Pete Carroll‘s response was, “We expect him to be here for a long time and we will work to get that done” (link via Sheil Kapadia of ESPN.com).

Despite Carroll’s confidence then and Irvin’s declaration in January that he’d be amenable to a hometown discount, there hasn’t been any known progress toward a new deal. Assuming the Seahawks don’t franchise Irvin at $14.129MM, he could find as much as $10MM annually on the market, as Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reported earlier this month. For his part, Schneider seems resigned to the departure of Irvin, who has recorded 22 sacks in four years since Seattle selected him 15th overall in 2012.

“I love Bruce… but it really, truly is a big puzzle that we have to work through,” Schneider said last week (per Kapadia). “And I’ve met with Bruce individually. He knows how we feel about him as an organization. He knows that we’re either going to be able to make it work or we’re just going to give him a big hug and congratulate him.”

In addition to Irvin, the Seahawks’ front seven is in danger of losing defensive tackles Brandon Mebane and Ahtyba Rubin, who finished third and fourth, respectively, among the team’s D-linemen in snaps last season. The two also started in all of their appearances (16 for Rubin, 15 for Mebane), but neither garnered much praise from Pro Football Focus – the site graded Mebane 70th and Rubin 80th among 123 qualifying D-linemen. It’s worth nothing, however, that the pair played mostly run snaps and the Seahawks’ defense surrendered the fewest rushing yards in the league.

If the Seahawks don’t re-sign Mebane, it would end his tenure with the team after nine years. The 2007 third-round pick is coming off a five-year, $25MM deal, but he’s highly unlikely to approach either of those numbers on his next contract as he enters his age-31 season. Rubin, on the other hand, signed with Seattle for $2.5MM last winter after seven years in Cleveland. Another short-term deal in that price range could keep the soon-to-be 30-year-old in Seattle.Jeremy Lane

The Seahawks’ only other noteworthy UFA defender is cornerback Jeremy Lane, who sat out the club’s first 10 games last season after breaking his arm and tearing his ACL on a Super Bowl XLIX interception. Lane also missed nine games in 2014 and has accumulated a mere six starts in four years. Still, he recorded the first two regular-season INTs of his career and ranked 51st out of 111 qualifying corners at PFF last year, and will be a strong candidate to start opposite Richard Sherman if he stays with the Seahawks. Lane, 25, is hoping to do exactly that.

“If the situation was right, I would love to go back to the Seahawks,” he told SiriusXM earlier this month (link via Stephen Cohen of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer). “They were the team to give me my first opportunity to showcase my skills in the NFL, and I appreciate them. They would be my No. 1 choice I would go to if they were the right choice for me and my family.”

On the other side of the ball, receiver Jermaine Kearse could finally exit his native Evergreen State, in which he played college football (University of Washington) and has spent the first four years of his pro career. Kearse — whom the Seahawks signed as an undrafted free agent in 2012 — has increased his production each year, notching personal bests in catches (49), targets (68), yards (685) and touchdowns (five) last season. Kearse indicated in January that his top priority is securing his family’s financial future, not settling for a hometown discount. With that in mind, Kearse might be able take advantage of a thin pool of free agent wideouts and ultimately price himself out of Seattle. It’s quite possible he’ll land a deal in the neighborhood of $4MM to $5MM a year.

Like Kearse, right guard J.R. Sweezy became a Seahawk in 2012 (as a seventh-round pick) and is now inching closer to hitting the open market. Sweezy has appeared in and started 45 games over the last three years, including 15 last season. Although PFF wasn’t impressed with Sweezy’s contract-year performance, ranking him 66th out of 81 qualifying guards, Rand Getlin of NFL Network tweeted earlier this month that there’s “plenty of buzz” around Sweezy as free agency nears. Sweezy could use the four-year, $19MM deal that ex-Seahawks guard James Carpenter got in free agency from the Jets last year as a yardstick, according to CBS Sports’ Joel Corry.

The rest of the Seahawks’ free agents are role players and/or RFAs, including center Patrick Lewis, backup quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, offensive lineman Alvin Bailey, reserve running backs Christine Michael and Fred Jackson, fullback Derrick Coleman, linebacker Mike Morgan and punter Jon Ryan.

As RFAs, Lewis, Bailey and Michael seem the likeliest to stay in Seattle. Lewis, who took the center job from Drew Nowak midway through last season and ultimately started in all nine of his appearances, is presumably in the Seahawks’ plans going forward.

Bailey appeared to expressed frustration with his situation in October, but with Okung and Sweezy possibly on the outs, odds are the team will tender him a contract.

Carroll said in January he’d like for the Seahawks to bring back Michael, whom they traded to Dallas last September and then signed late in the season after the Cowboys waived him. In his second stint as a Seahawk, Michael averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 39 attempts. Given Michael’s familiarity with the Seahawks’ offense and his solid performance with the club in 17 career games, it would make sense for them to tender the 25-year-old and give him an opportunity to keep his job behind Rawls.

Tarvaris Jackson, 32, has spent most of the last half-decade with the Seahawks, but he’ll test the market, per Jessamyn McIntyre of 710 ESPN Seattle (Twitter link).

It will be a surprise if the Seahawks re-sign Fred Jackson, the oldest running back in the league (35), after he amassed only 26 carries in 16 games last season. Jackson does want to continue his career, though, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter link).

Coleman, who’s restricted, isn’t a lock to get a tender considering the legal issues he’s facing stemming from an October car accident. Coleman mostly played on special teams last season, as did Morgan – who was third on the team in ST snaps (284). Morgan is unrestricted, but he shouldn’t be difficult to retain if the Seahawks want him back.

Ryan, the Seahawks’ punter since 2008, has been mediocre to below average in yards per punt and net average in recent years, so that’s a position the club could try to upgrade.

Possible Cap Casualties:

Unless Lynch has a change of heart on his retirement, the Seahawks are devoid of players they’re likely to release for cap reasons. If Lynch does a 180 and decides to keep playing, the Seahawks might not be receptive to keeping him. As mentioned earlier, they’ll open up $6.5MM without Lynch in the picture. If they were to designate him a post- June 1 cut, they’d save $9MM.Jimmy Graham

Releasing three-time Pro Bowl tight end Jimmy Graham would also clear $9MM, whether before or after June 1, but Schneider has no intention of doing it.

“No, I don’t, I really don’t,” he told 950 KJR-AM in January (per Kapadia). “I understand why people would say that based on the salary and what some people have … people on the outside may perceive as a lack of production. But really, truly, the guy is a special player. We gave up a No. 1 draft choice for him.”

In addition to sending a first-rounder to the Saints for Graham last winter, the Seahawks also parted with center Max Unger. Graham then had an underwhelming season in Seattle, catching 48 passes and two touchdowns in 11 games, before suffering a torn patellar tendon in November. The 29-year-old is currently recovering from the injury, and Schneider is encouraged by his progress.

“Jimmy is doing great,” Schneider said last Wednesday. “He’s down in Miami working with some people down there, and he’s doing great. He’s got a great attitude about it. Obviously it was a devastating injury for us at the time, but he’s a great guy, got a great attitude about it, and he’s ready to get after it.’”

Positions Of Need:

Even with Okung and Sweezy in their lineup for the lion’s share of last season, the Seahawks’ offensive line still had major pass-blocking issues for a good portion of the campaign. The unit surrendered the sixth-most sacks in the league (46) and ranked 30th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate metric. Those numbers are somewhat deceiving overall, though, as the group fared well during the second half of the season. Amid their 6-2 post-bye week run, the Seahawks gave up a paltry 13 sacks. Still, with Okung and Sweezy facing uncertain futures, Seattle might have to find two new O-line starters (including an all-important left tackle), and that’s assuming Lewis, left guard Justin Britt and right tackle Garry Gilliam stay in place.

If Okung walks and the Seahawks are willing to spend to replace him, a couple of high-end free agent possibilities are the Raiders’ Donald Penn and the Ravens’ Kelechi Osemele.

Unlike Okung, Penn has been the picture of durability throughout his career, having missed zero games in his nine years in the league. He has also started 16 games in eight straight seasons (as mentioned earlier, Okung has never done that). Both Penn’s reliability and performance (he was PFF’s No. 11 tackle last season, 20 spots above Okung) should lead him to an appreciable raise over the $4.8MM per year he made on his prior deal. Penn is much older than Okung (33 compared to 28), which means he’s unlikely to get more than a two- or three-year commitment. That could appeal to the Seahawks.

Osemele doesn’t have Penn’s track record as a left tackle, having moved there from guard last season, but he’s on the cusp of a substantial payday. We learned earlier this week that the Ravens have been “aggressive” in their attempt to retain Osemele, whom they could offer more than $10MM per season. Osemele is two years younger than Okung, which is a plus, but he has gone three seasons in a row without playing all 16 games.

In the event the Seahawks would rather fill the left tackle spot by less expensive means, Jermon Bushrod – who has made 96 starts since 2009 – is on the market after the Bears released him a couple weeks ago. Bushrod wouldn’t cost the Seahawks much, but he comes with obvious warts. The 31-year-old battled injuries last season and made only four starts – his fewest since 2008 – and Chicago cut him with a failed physical designation. He has since undergone shoulder surgery and is facing a four-month recovery. Okung aside, Schneider hasn’t been one to funnel huge money into the O-line, so it’s not totally far-fetched that he’d take a chance on Bushrod as a cheap stopgap. Of course, Bushrod would first have to get a clean bill of health.

Guard features far more viable options than left tackle when it comes to prospective free agents, and the Seahawks should be able to find a competent one without breaking the bank. At the moment, Richie Incognito (Bills), Ramon Foster (Steelers), Alex Boone (49ers), Jeff Allen (Chiefs), Brandon Brooks (Texans), Mike Harris (Vikings), Chris Chester (Falcons) and Evan Mathis (Broncos), whom the Seahawks visited with last summer but chose not to sign, are all without deals.

If the Seahawks want to use their first-round pick (26th overall) on an offensive lineman, the likes of Taylor Decker (tackle, Ohio State), Shon Coleman (tackle, Auburn) and Cody Whitehair (guard, Kansas State) could be available.

The Seahawks have other holes to fill offensively, but they’re less pressing. As noted above, Schneider will try to augment the team’s running back group. Free agent Joique Bell — who should come at a bargain rate — would add a pass-catching element to the Seahawks’ backfield, which Rawls didn’t provide last season. Speaking of catching passes, with Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett in the fold, the Seahawks are well-equipped to move on without Kearse next season. They’re likely to fill Kearse’s soon-to-be vacated spot by drafting a wideout in the fourth round or higher, according to Kapadia.

With Irvin poised to go someplace else, not to mention the cloudy statuses of Mebane and Rubin, the Seahawks must address their defensive front seven. The team doesn’t necessarily have to bring in a linebacker to fill Irvin’s pass-rushing void, though. End Chris Long — whom the Rams released this month — is a possible fit in that regard, per Kapadia. However, the eight-year veteran isn’t the imposing force he was in his earlier days, having totaled just four sacks over the previous two years while battling injuries. Moreover, PFF gave him an especially poor grade last season (98th out of 110 qualifying edge defenders).

The Seahawks were in the Greg Hardy sweepstakes last offseason, but they backed out after weighing the defensive end’s price tag and his poor off-field conduct (link via Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk). While Hardy’s history of unbecoming off-field behavior hasn’t changed, if he’s cheaper as a free agent this offseason, perhaps the Seahawks will revisit the idea of adding a player with 32 sacks in his last 43 games to help make up for Irvin’s loss. With Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril and Hardy, the Seahawks would have a frightening trio of edge rushers.

Seattle was also connected to run-stuffing defensive tackle Terrance Knighton last year before he went to Washington for $4MM. Knighton is set to hit the market again next month, and with Mebane and Rubin unsigned, the Seahawks might circle back to Pot Roast as a short-term solution. Nick Fairley (Rams), Ian Williams (49ers), Akiem Hicks (Patriots) and the Saints’ Kevin Williams (a Seahawk in 2014) are some of the other accomplished DTs who are without contracts.

The Seahawks could also use their first-rounder to add to their front seven, and it so happens that the draft is flush with talent in that area. Leonard Floyd (edge rusher, Georgia), Robert Nkemdiche (DT, Ole Miss), A’Shawn Robinson (DT, Alabama), Shaq Lawson (DE, Clemson) and Sheldon Rankins (DT, Louisville) all seem like candidates to end up in a Seahawks uniform.

Shifting to the secondary, Seattle will have to address the cornerback position if Lane signs elsewhere. The Saints plan to cut veteran Brandon Browner, who played in Seattle from 2011-13. Though Browner was awful last season in New Orleans, he had some solid seasons with the Seahawks – whose defense he’s keenly familiar with – and shouldn’t come at a lofty price. The 6-foot-4, 221-pounder even said last summer that he wanted to return to Seattle eventually. Of course, that doesn’t mean the team feels the same way. If the Seahawks would rather sign an established player who isn’t coming off a poor season, Adam Jones (Bengals), Leon Hall (Bengals), William Gay (Steelers) and Patrick Robinson (Chargers) are a few of the many corners primed for free agency.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Two of the Seahawks’ most valuable defenders, aforementioned end Michael Bennett and safety Kam Chancellor, haven’t hidden their "<strongdissatisfaction with their current contracts — both of which expire after the 2017 campaign. The Seahawks are now discussing a new deal with Bennett, so it looks as though they’re on the road to appeasing him.

Bennett, who recently switched agencies from Rosenahus Sports to Relativity Sports, has accrued 25.5 sacks since joining the Seahawks in 2013. A career-high 10 of those sacks came last season, when he graded out as a top-five edge defender at PFF. While Bennett isn’t exactly playing for the league minimum, ranking 12th at his position in both total value ($28.5MM) and yearly average (~$7.13MM), and 15th in guarantees ($10MM), he has outperformed his contract. If the Seahawks award Bennett a raise, a pact worth upward of $10MM per year could be in the offing. That would put him in the elite tier of 4-3 ends in terms of compensation.

Chancellor took a less diplomatic approach than Bennett last year when he skipped all of training camp, the preseason, and then the first two games of the regular season in hopes of earning a raise. That method backfired, though, as the Seahawks didn’t budge and Chancellor eventually admitted defeat (temporarily, anyway). Chancellor’s failed power move cost him upward of $2.1MM thanks to fines, signing-bonus forfeiture and lost salary.

Chancellor, a top-10 safety in total worth (~$28MM) and per-year value (~$7MM), was seeking at least $9MM annually during his holdout. The soon-to-be 28-year-old isn’t suddenly content with his situation, notes Corry, who expects the four-time Pro Bowler to monitor what fellow safety Eric Berry signs for in the coming weeks. Earl Thomas, Chancellor’s teammate, is the league’s highest-paid safety on a yearly basis at $10MM – a number Berry has a realistic chance to top, and one Chancellor wants to approach.

While Bennett and Chancellor are still under Seahawks control for two more seasons, wideout Doug Baldwin and kicker Steven Hauschka are heading into contract years. Thus, the Seahawks could explore extensions for either or both of them in the coming months.

Baldwin was a quality target for the first four years of his career, averaging 49 receptions for 689 yards and roughly four touchdowns per campaign from 2011-14, but he experienced a significant breakout last season. The 5-10, 189-pounder tied for the lead among wideouts in TDs (14, tied with Brandon Marshall and Allen Robinson) and piled up career bests in receptions (78), targets (104) and yards (1,069). As a result, the 27-year-old should at least be in line to join the financial company of other late-20s receivers like Torrey Smith and Michael Crabtree. Both are non-star players who signed for $8MM or more annually in the last 12 months, placing them in the top 20 at the position in total value and yearly mean.

Hauschka has been consistently great during his five years in Seattle, nailing nearly 89% of his field goal attempts (142 of 160). In two of the last three seasons, Hauschka has connected on well over 90% of tries – including his 29-of-31 output in 2015 (93.5%). Hauschka also hit on all six of his attempts over 50 yards, making him 11 of 13 from that distance since 2013. Further, the 30-year-old was respectable on kickoffs, ranking 11th in yards per kick (64.5) and touchbacks (47). He did struggle in the first year of the 33-yard extra point, however, finishing with the league’s fifth-worst success rate (90.9%).

Despite his PAT issues, Hauschka is set up for a raise over his $2.85MM annual salary if the Seahawks decide to extend him. He could land in a similar ballpark to the Patriots’ Stephen Gostkowski, who signed a four-year, $17.2MM extension at the age of 31 last summer. Gostkowski, second among kickers in total money, yearly average ($4.3MM) and first in guarantees ($10.1MM), had gone a combined 102 of 113 (90.3%) on field goals in the three seasons before his extension. Hauschka has been equally effective during his last 48 games (93 of 103, 90.3%), and the $12MM increase in cap since last year should help his cause in obtaining Gostkowski-type money.

Overall Outlook:

The Seahawks have an all-world core group and one of the premier rosters in the league in place, so John Schneider won’t have to do anything drastic this offseason to keep the team in Super Bowl contention. With the cap space and draft picks he has at his disposal, the seventh-year GM will likely spend the next several months mostly focusing on the Seahawks’ lines as he plots to dethrone the Cardinals in the NFC West and the Panthers in the conference.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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PFR Originals: 2/21/16 – 2/28/16

By | at February 28, 2016 4:52 pm

The original analysis and content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

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Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Bengals

By | at February 27, 2016 10:00 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Andy Dalton, QB: $13,100,000
  2. A.J. Green, WR: $13,000,000
  3. Geno Atkins, DT: $9,600,000
  4. Kevin Zeitler, G: $8,070,000
  5. Andrew Whitworth, T: $8,000,000
  6. Dre Kirkpatrick, CB: $7,507,000
  7. Carlos Dunlap, DE: $6,250,000
  8. Michael Johnson, DE: $6,125,000
  9. Clint Boling, G: $4,750,000
  10. Rey Maualuga, LB: $4,084,375
  11. Vontaze Burfict, LB: $3,825,000
  12. Domata Peko, DT: $3,725,000
  13. Kevin Huber, P: $3,020,000
  14. Tyler Eifert, TE: $2,626,909
  15. Darqueze Dennard, CB: $2,176,063

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • Offensive coordinator: Promoted QBs coach Ken Zampese to replace Hue Jackson, who left to become Browns HC.
  • Offensive staff: Hired former Dolphins OC Bill Lazor as QBs coach to replace Ken Zampese.
  • Defensive staff: Hired former Dolphins DC Kevin Coyle as secondary coach to replace Vance Joseph, who left to become Dolphins DC.
  • Defensive staff: Hired former Saints HC Jim Haslett as LBs coach to replace Matt Burke.

Draft:

  • No. 24 overall pick
  • No traded draft picks.

Other:

Overview:

Five consecutive playoff appearances. Five consecutive first round exits. The beat goes on in Cincinnati, but the 2015 postseason loss was perhaps the most painful of the bunch. After a frantic comeback led by backup quarterback A.J. McCarron, the Bengals appeared poised to win their first playoff game since 1991. But after allowing Ben Roethlisberger to drive the Steelers offense down the field, Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones committed two astonishing personal fouls, allowing kicker Chris Boswell to set up for the game-winning field goal as time expired.Marvin Lewis (Vertical)

As deflating as that loss was, the Bengals’ season still has to be viewed as a success. The club posted its fourth consecutive 10-win season, and with a final mark of 12-4, the 2015 team is certainly in the running for the best Cincinnati squad in the history of the franchise (at least, in the regular season). Quarterback Andy Dalton was outstanding, completing 66% of his passes for than 3,200 yards, 25 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions, and may have garnered MVP consideration if not for a late-season injury. And after dipping to 14th in DVOA in 2014, the Bengals’ defense rebounded and once again finished inside the top 10.

It was a season of what-ifs in the Queen City: what if Dalton hadn’t suffered a broken thumb on a freak play? What if Burfict and/or Jones don’t commit those personal fouls? What if the team had won one more regular-season game and secured a postseason bye? Could Dalton have returned for the divisional round? And although those questions frustratingly will never be answered, the fact remains that a large portion of the NFL would instantly trade places with a franchise that has made the playoffs for five consecutive seasons and is sitting on a young core of talent.

Head coach Marvin Lewis, owner/GM Mike Brown, director of player personnel Duke Tobin, and the rest of Cincinnati’s front office have made their bones in past offseasons, combining smart free agent decisions with solid draft classes. Several key Bengals pieces are set to hit unrestricted free agency if deals aren’t reached, and while Cincinnati has plenty of cap space with which to work, the team will still have to make a few tough calls in the coming weeks.

Key Free Agents:

Most of the Bengals’ top free agents are on the defensive side of the ball, but the club does have several offensive players who are heading for the open market, including its No. 2 and No. 3 receivers — Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu. There’s no question that Jones is the more talented of the two, and while that makes it more critical that Cincinnati re-sign him, it also means that more clubs will show interest if he reaches free agency (and reports are that he plans to test the market).Marvin Jones

In two full NFL seasons, Jones, who turns 26 in early March, has averaged 58 receptions for 764 yards and seven touchdowns — not star numbers, to be sure, but certainly productive, especially in a run-based offense that funnels targets to A.J. Green and (last season) Tyler Eifert. Jones may ask for more than $7MM annually, and while I question whether the Bengals will go that high, I still think there’s a better chance Jones is retained over Sanu.

Sanu is expected to garner interest from the Browns, Falcons, and Giants, and isn’t likely to return to Cincinnati. That isn’t surprising, as Sanu is a prime candidate to be overpaid on the free agent market. The Bengals stick to their evaluation of their players and won’t budge from their price, so there’s little chance they’ll match whatever offers Sanu is able to garner from other clubs.

Cincinnati drafted offensive tackles with each of its first two picks in last year’s draft, and the selections put the final nail in incumbent right tackle Andre Smith‘s Bengals coffin. Smith is still under 30 years old, and he’ll get paid by someone else, but there’s little chance he returns to the Queen City. 2016 first-rounder Cedric Ogbuehi is expected to take over on the right side of the offensive line.

As at wide receiver, the Bengals have a pair of free agents-to-be at the safety position, as both Reggie Nelson and George Iloka‘s contracts are expiring. Reserve Shawn Williams is ready to take over as a starter, so it’s not imperative that Cincinnati re-signs both Nelson and Iloka, and of the duo, Iloka should probably be the higher priority simply based on his youth.

The 26-year-old Iloka had another solid season in his third year as a starter, grading as a top-15 safety according to Pro Football Focus. The free agent safety market is relatively flush, so perhaps Iloka’s price gets driven down due to the sheer number of available alternatives, but I’d still expect him to target at least $7MM per season. After Jones, Iloka should be second on the Bengals’ free agent priority list.Reggie Nelson (Vertical)

Now entering his age-33 season, Nelson posted the best campaign of his career in 2015, earning Pro Bowl honors after leading the league in interceptions with eight. He’s clearly still a productive player even heading into his 10th NFL season, and if Iloka doesn’t return, the Bengals should look into a short-term deal with Nelson. But Cincinnati has been wary of committing to players who might be past their prime, so the team might not feel the need to overpay to keep Nelson (despite his public declaration that he’d like to stay).

Elsewhere in the secondary, Cincinnati has two veteran free agents who have very different futures with the Bengals. Adam Jones, despite the mercurial nature that was fully on display during the club’s playoff loss, is widely expected to be re-signed by the Bengals. He’s a solid cornerback even at age 30, he has been in the Bengals system for six seasons, and he shouldn’t be all that expensive, as I don’t get the sense that many other clubs would be too keen to invest in a player with his attitude problems.

Leon Hall, on the other hand, is not expected to be retained, and it’s possible that he may decide to leave the NFL altogether. Retirement is an option for any player over the age of 30, and it’s certainly on the table for someone with Hall’s injury history. The ultimate trooper, Hall has suffered two torn Achilles and dealt with a myriad of other injuries, quietly accepting his transition to slot corner, and even experimented at safety. While he may not be back for a 10th season in Cincinnati, but Hall’s contributions over the past decade shouldn’t be overlooked.

Linebacker Vincent Rey is probably the most likely of all the Bengals’ free agents to be re-signed — Aaron Wilson of the National Football Post recently reported that the club plans to make a “major push” to keep the 28-year-old, and will use Maualuga’s three-year, $15MM contract as a template for Rey’s new deal. On its face, that total might seem like an overpay, but Rey has become a stalwart in Cincinnati’s front seven, and played the most snaps of any Bengals linebacker last season, so the team isn’t going to let him get away. Fellow linebacker Emmanuel Lamur, a sub-package pass-game specialist, should also be re-signed.

Of Cincinnati’s three free agents on the defensive line — Pat Sims, Brandon Thompson, and Wallace Gilberry — Sims probably has the best chance of returning, as the 30-year-old was a valuable reserve nose tackle in his first season back in Cincinnati after two years in Oakland. Thompson, meanwhile, is recovering from a torn ACL and might not latch on with another team until the summer, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Buccaneers (who employ former Bengals DL coach Jay Hayes) show interest. Gilberry has shown an ability to play both inside and outside, and posted 14 sacks from 2012-13 as the club’s third end. Given that he has garnered only 3.5 sacks over the past two seasons though, I’d expect Cincinnati to try to get younger at the position.

One point that needs to be made: I’d guess that Hue Jackson and the Browns are going to target quite a few of the Bengals’ free agents. In fact, Bengals defensive coordinator Paul Guenther confirmed as much on Friday, when he told reporters that he expects the former Cincinnati offensive coordinator to go after his old players. It seems obvious, but coming from the Cincinnati system, Jackson obviously values continuity, so bringing in some free agents whom he knows well would make for a good start in Cleveland. As such, Bengals director of player personnel Duke Tobin‘s plan to be “proactive” when signing internal free agents needs to come to fruition.

A.J. Hawk (Vertical)Possible Cap Casualties:

After nine seasons in Green Bay, linebacker A.J. Hawk returned to his home state of Ohio on a two-year deal, but it’s doubtful that the 32-year-old will get the chance to play out the full contract. Buried on the Bengals depth chart, Hawk played on only 26.3% of the team’s defensive snaps. Cincinnati can save $1.4MM without incurring any dead money by cutting Hawk, and that’s probably the route they’ll choose.

Kicker Mike Nugent — a high school and college teammate of Hawk — doesn’t cost much in 2016, as his cap figure is just $1.55MM. However, his potential release wouldn’t be financially motivated, but rather based on performance. Nugent missed five field goals last season, including three from inside 50 yards and one from inside 40 yards. Given that he also ranked 25th in kickoff touchback percentage, I’d expect the Bengals to at least bring in kicking competition, and strongly consider making a change.

A rare whiff by the Bengals’ scouting department, defensive end Margus Hunt has failed to live up to his second-round billing in three seasons in Cincinnati. The 6’8″ Estonian hasn’t played in more than 20% of the team’s defensive snaps during any season of his career, and he was inactive for nine Cincinnati contests last season. The Bengals have seen enough of Hunt to know he isn’t the answer, and I don’t expect him to return (though his being waived would only save the club about $900K).

Two veteran defenders — linebacker Rey Maualuga and defensive tackle Domata Peko — are seemingly talked about as candidates for release nearly every offseason, but the pair has constantly survived on the roster, and have now been Bengals for a combined 17 years. Both players actually played pretty well in 2015 (Peko, notably, had been near the bottom of Pro Football Focus’ tackle grades for years), and Cincinnati coaches are always confident the duo is in the right place at the right time.

Cutting Maualuga would save the Bengals in excess of $4MM in 2016, while releasing Peko, who is entering the final year of an extension he agreed to in 2014, would bring Cincinnati $3.25MM in cap relief. Perhaps the duo’s roster spots would be in jeopardy if the club brought in younger options along the front seven, but I think each is probably safe.

Positions Of Need:

Many of the Bengals’ possible areas of focus this offseason will be determined by what happens with their internal free agents, and wide receiver is the most obvious example of that cause-and-effect. If Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu both leave via free agency, Cincinnati’s receiver depth chart behind A.J. Green would look perilously thin (and realistically, even if only one of Jones or Sanu signs elsewhere, the Bengals’ receiving corps would need outside help).

Cincinnati, somewhat surprisingly, didn’t use a high pick in last year’s draft to address the receiver position, and with a glaring list of possible defensive holes, I once again doubt they’ll sacrifice a Day 1 or 2 pick to the offensive side of the ball. So aside from re-signing their own, the Bengals’ likely route for pass-catching improvement is low-cost free agent additions. One option that might make some sense is Dolphins’ receiver Rishard Matthews, who not only would offer a different, more possession-based element than Green, but also has a relationship with former Miami OC Bill Lazor, who is now the Bengals’ quarterbacks coach.

Quarterback, running back, and tight end are all filled positions on Cincinnati’s roster, and though the Bengals used their first two picks last season on offensive lineman, it’s possible that they could target interior help in the later rounds of this year’s draft. Right guard Kevin Zeitler is only signed through 2016, while the one weak spot along the front five was center Russell Bodine. Finding a collegiate player late in the draft capable of playing both spots — as something of an insurance policy — wouldn’t be a bad idea.

On defense, the Bengals rebounded from a ghastly 2014 in which they finished last in the league with only 20 sacks — they finished 2015 ranked 12th in adjusted sack rate. But Michael Johnson is not a prototypical pass-rushing defensive end, and with Domata Peko aging, Cincinnati needs to add an infusion of youth to its defensive line, possibly in Round 1. Louisville’s Sheldon Rankins looks like a poor man’s Geno Atkins, Alabama’s A’Shawn Robinson could be a replacement at nose down the line, and Baylor’s Andrew Billings — whom Chris Burke of Sports Illustrated has going to the Bengals in his latest mock draft — could play either nose or three-technique.

New Bengals defensive line coach Jacob Burney worked in Washington for the five years, and while I don’t think any of Washington’s free agent lineman would be of interest, I could see the Bengals going after Jason Hatcher if he were to be released. Cincinnati values versatility along the line, meaning Robert Ayers, George Selvie, and Tyrunn Walker are among the lineman that might intrigue the club.

If the Bengals don’t use their first-round pick on a defensive lineman, I fully expect the club to select a corner on Day 1 instead. A look at Cincinnati’s secondary from the past few years indicates how much it values pedigree in the defensive backfield — Leon Hall, Dre Kirkpatrick, Adam Jones, Darqueze Dennard, and former longtime Bengal Terence Newman were all first-round picks. If Florida’s Vernon Hargreaves III or Ohio State’s Eli Apple falls to pick No. 24, Cincinnati would run to turn in its card. More likely, they’ll end up with someone like Clemson’s Mackensie Alexander (the Bengals won’t be scared off by his lack of height like other clubs will be).

Like wide receiver, safety is a position that could be on the Bengals’ radar pending the outcome of several free agent decisions. However, I fully expect the team to re-sign at least one of Reggie Nelson or George Iloka, and as noted above, Shawn Williams can start in the NFL right now. Additionally, second-year defensive back Josh Shaw can play safety, so I don’t think this is an area where Cincinnati will expend resources.

Finally, the Bengals are probably set at linebacker if Vincent Rey re-signs as expected, but Vontaze Burfict has dealt with injuries lately and will now miss the first three games of the season due to suspension, so it wouldn’t hurt to bring in some depth. Zach Brown is a former second-pick with an immense amount of athleticism who never broke out with the Titans, and Cincinnati might take a chance hoping they can bring out the best in him. Keenan Robinson could also be a fit, especially given that former Washington coordinator Jim Haslett is the new Cincinnati linebackers coach.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Tyler Eifert (Vertical)The Bengals hold a fifth-year option for 2017 for tight end Tyler Eifert, and the Notre Dame alum made it an easy call with a spectacular 2015 season during which he caught 52 passes for 615 yards and led all tight ends with 13 receiving touchdowns. The recent extensions handed out to fellow tight ends Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz should set a baseline for talks, as each received more than $8.5MM annually and between $10-15MM in guarantees. Both of those players were heading into the final year of their respective contracts, however, while Cincinnati controls Eifert for two more seasons, so perhaps the team can use that leverage to bring down the total outlay.

Like Eifert, running back Giovani Bernard was a member of the Bengals’ 2013 draft class, and while he hasn’t had a single standout season like Eifert’s 2015, Bernard has been extremely consistent, posting roughly 700 yards rushing and 450 yards receiving during each of his first three years in the NFL. But Bernard is the type of back that often doesn’t get paid much on the open market (as noted by Bill Barnwell in a 2014 Grantland article), so it might behoove the Bengals to let Bernard play out his rookie deal rather than trying to extend him now.

Dre Kirkpatrick and Kevin Zeitler will each play out the 2016 season under the terms of their fifth-year options, so the Bengals have roughly one calendar year to work out extensions with each player. As noted above, I’d expect Cincinnati to add another corner early in this year’s draft, so Kirkpatrick might be the odd man out. He’s been a disappointment for the most part in his four seasons with the club, and if he doesn’t show marked improvement this year, the Bengals might let him walk.

Zeitler, on the other hand, has been a revelation at right guard, and graded out as the league’s No. 11 guard in 2015, per Pro Football Focus. A report last April indicated that Cincinnati wanted to work out an extension with Zeitler (and Kirkpatrick for that matter) before making a decision on his fifth-year option, and while that obviously didn’t happen, there’s no reason a deal can’t happen now. Fellow Bengals guard Clint Boling‘s four-year, $26MM deal could be used as a guideline in negotiations.

Overall Outlook:

It would be easy for Bengals fans to get frustrated with the club’s lack of postseason success during the past five years. But Cincinnati is one of the most stable franchises in the NFL, and the club need only look north up I-71 to Cleveland to see what an organization in disrepair looks like. The Steelers are always a threat, and the Ravens may bounce back from a horrid 2015 to once again contend, but the Bengals should be the favorites in the AFC North. They probably won’t spend money or make any splashy moves this offseason, but with a roster full of talent, the Bengals are among them most enviable teams in the league.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2 comments Cincinnati Bengals Offseason Outlook PFR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Washington

By | at February 26, 2016 9:57 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Robert Griffin III, QB: $16,155,000
  2. Trent Williams, T: $10,668,750
  3. Pierre Garcon, WR: $10,200,000
  4. Chris Culliver, CB: $9,250,000
  5. DeSean Jackson, WR: $9,250,000
  6. Jason Hatcher, DE: $8,734,375
  7. Ryan Kerrigan, OLB: $8,450,000
  8. Dashon Goldson, S: $8,000,000
  9. DeAngelo Hall, CB: $5,062,500
  10. Perry Riley, ILB: $5,049,804
  11. Shawn Lauvao, G: $5,000,000
  12. Andre Roberts, WR: $5,000,000
  13. Brandon Scherff, T: $4,821,736
  14. Stephen Paea, DE: $4,653,125
  15. Kory Lichtensteiger, C: $4,050,000

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • Defensive staff: Hired former Colts DC Greg Manusky as OLBs coach.

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

Widely projected to finish third or fourth in the NFC East in 2015, Washington entered the season as underdogs and finished it as division champions, ranking comfortably ahead of the presumed favorites in Philadelphia and Dallas. It wasn’t a particular strong year for the NFC East, and Washington didn’t last long in the postseason, but it was still a surprisingly successful season for Jay Gruden‘s club.

A crucial factor in Washington’s success was the emergency of Kirk Cousins, who took over as the full-time starting quarterback while former No. 2 overall pick Robert Griffin III spent the season watching from the sidelines.

Having entered the season with just nine NFL starts on his résumé, Cousins started all 16 of Washington’s regular season games, leading the NFL with a 69.8% completion percentage, racking up 4,166 yards through the air, and throwing 29 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions. Cousins’ career year, which happened to come in a contract year, puts Washington in a tough spot this winter, but the club certainly “liked that” during the season.

Although Cousins’ play on offense, combined with an effective running game and a steadily improving defense, didn’t make Washington a Super Bowl contender, the franchise is taking steps in the right direction under new general manager Scot McCloughan. Now, it’ll be up to McCloughan to make a few tough roster decisions to ensure that the team keeps trending upwards in 2016.

Key Free Agents:Kirk Cousins

Washington’s top two quarterbacks are both eligible for free agency this offseason, and while the club would like to re-sign Colt McCoy, Cousins is clearly priority number one. His breakout season potentially provided Washington some certainty at a position that looked awfully uncertain 12 months ago, but the fact that Cousins has only excelled for a single full season has to make McCloughan and his staff a little wary about committing to a lucrative, long-term deal.

With negotiations between the two sides ongoing, Cousins clearly has the upper hand. The franchise-tag deadline of March 1st is looming, and if Washington opts to use its tag on its quarterback, it will mean paying him in the ballpark of $20MM or more for the 2016 season, and Cousins’ reps will likely use that figure as his salary floor in negotiations for a longer-term agreement. On the other hand, if Cousins isn’t franchised, he would have the opportunity to reach the open market a week later, where quarterback-needy teams would likely be salivating at the opportunity to make an offer to the most promising signal-caller to hit unrestricted free agency in years.

It’s a tough situation for Washington, but one that probably has a simple answer: McCloughan can’t let Cousins get away for nothing. If that means franchising him, so be it. Using the tag on Cousins would give the team until July 15th to work out a multiyear extension. If the quarterback ends up playing out the 2016 season on a one-year franchise salary, Washington will have a much better sense by next winter of whether or not it can commit to him for the long term.

With Washington currently ranking among the bottom 10 teams in the NFL in terms of projected cap room, and Cousins requiring a significant chunk of space, the club is fortunate that it doesn’t have many other free agents that must be retained.

It would be nice to have running back Alfred Morris return in 2016, but it would be a luxury. Matt Jones significantly cut into Morris’ workload in 2015, and adding a cheaper back to the mix to complement to Jones probably makes the most sense. Fullback Darrel Young is also expendable — he saw his role diminish in 2015, appearing in only about 10% of Washington’s offensive snaps.

Elsewhere on offense, offensive lineman Josh LeRibeus is the most notable free agent, and while he may not be a top priority for Washington, it might make sense to bring him back. After seeing very limited action in his first three NFL seasons, the former third-round pick made seven starts in 2015 and held his own. He’s probably not a player the team wants to rely on as a full-time starter, but as a depth piece who is familiar with the system, LeRibeus is a candidate for a new deal.

On defense, Washington’s most important free agent might be one that didn’t play a single snap for the club in 2015. Edge defender Junior Galette tore his Achilles during the preseason, which kept him from making his regular-season debut in D.C., but he said at season’s end that he expects to re-sign with the club. If Washington is confident that Galette’s off-field issues are behind him, he’d certainly be a nice on-field addition if he’s healthy — he had double-digit sacks in 2013 and 2014 for New Orleans before the Saints grew tired of his rule violations.

Cornerbacks Will Blackmon and Cary Williams don’t necessarily need to be dismissed, but neither player should be relied upon to play a major role on the Washington defense in 2016. The same is probably true for inside linebackers Keenan Robinson and Mason Foster. Foster was a little more solid than Robinson, but inside linebacker is a position Washington ought to focus on upgrading, so Foster shouldn’t be more than a rotational piece if he returns.

Finally, nose tackles Terrance Knighton and Kedric Golston are both eligible for unrestricted free agency in March, and it might behoove the club to keep at least one of the two. Knighton didn’t have quite the same impact as he did in previous years with the Broncos, but he was solid in part-time action in D.C. – particularly against the run – and is more reliable than Golston. If his price tag in free agency is reasonable, Washington should strongly consider re-signing him.

Robert Griffin IIIPossible Cap Casualties:

Washington currently doesn’t have enough cap space to use its franchise tag on Cousins, so there will be cap casualties here, and the most obvious one is the player that Cousins replaced — Robert Griffin III. Last spring, the team exercised RGIII’s fifth-year option, worth $16.155MM, but that salary remains guaranteed for injury only, and since Griffin is healthy, Washington should have no problem cutting him before March 9th and clearing that entire $16MM+ cap charge from its books.

Releasing – or trading – Griffin frees up the cap room necessary to tag Cousins, but with plenty of other offseason business to take care of, Washington will need to address the contracts for a few more players, either in the form of pay cuts or outright cuts.

Wide receiver Andre Roberts will see his cap number increase to $5MM in 2016, and no longer has any guaranteed salary on his contract, so I’d be surprised to see him stick around, especially after a 2015 season in which he caught just 11 balls. Cutting Roberts would create $3MM in cap savings.

Like Roberts, offensive lineman Shawn Lauvao is on the books for cap charge of $5MM in 2016, and didn’t play much last season, though in Lauvao’s case, that was the result of an ankle injury that landed him on injured reserve after just three weeks. He was a full-time starter at guard for Washington in 2014, and it’s possible the team still views him as a strong candidate to start going forward, but the opportunity to create $3MM in cap savings by cutting him will likely be considered.

On defense, Washington has several players that fall into the same boat as Lauvao — veterans like Jason Hatcher, Dashon Goldson, and Perry Riley were all starters for Washington in 2015, and may still be considered starters heading into 2016, but their cap hits will give the club pause.

Mike Jones of the Washington Post recently identified Hatcher and Goldson as players whose contracts Washington would like to rework — Goldson in particular has a cap number ($8MM, with no dead money) that likely outweighs his on-field contributions. But Washington likes his presence in the locker room and appears to want to keep him around. It’ll be interesting to see whether these guys ultimately return at reduced rates. Releasing Hatcher, Goldson, and Riley would create $16MM+ in cap savings, but I expect at least one or two of them will be back.

Three of Washington’s top five current cap hits belong to cornerback Chris Culliver and wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. By all accounts, the team wants to bring these players back for the 2016 season, but McCloughan and the front office could have a little leverage when it comes to reworking the contracts of Culliver and Garcon, whose respective salaries of $8MM and $7.6MM seem excessive, given their unspectacular 2015 performances.

Positions Of Need:

Washington’s most pressing areas of need this offseason are on the defensive side of the ball, where the team has capable contributors at multiple positions, but potential holes in both the front seven and the secondary.

While outside linebacker could be a position of strength for the team, particularly if Junior Galette re-signs and stays healthy, moving Trent Murphy into more of a situational role, inside linebacker is a spot Washington must address. William Compton, Mason Foster, Perry Riley, and Keenan Robinson were among the players to see substantial playing time in the middle in 2015, and none of them definitively proved that they’re capable of being a long-term starter.

With former Colts defensive coordinator Greg Manusky joining Washington’s staff last month, one pending free agent to keep an eye on is Jerrell Freeman, who enjoyed his best year in 2015. The Colts will likely make a strong effort to lock up their standout inside linebacker, but if he reaches the open market, he’s a player Washington should take a long, hard look at. If the club can’t secure a top free agent at the position, such as Freeman or Danny Trevathan, prioritizing the position in the draft makes sense — this year’s class is deep when it comes to front-seven players, and inside linebacker isn’t a premium position, so Washington could potentially land a starter on day two or even three.

Although Washington will explore additions on the defensive line in an effort to add some youth, that group will look fairly solid if Terrance Knighton and Jason Hatcher return, so the secondary will be a more pressing issue. In Chris Culliver, Bashaud Breeland, DeAngelo Hall, and Dashon Goldson, Washington has four potential starters, but there are plenty of question marks — Culliver and Goldson are coming off down years, and Hall is still adjusting to the safety position after making the move from cornerback.

With Will Blackmon and Cary Williams set to reach the open market, cornerback is one position Washington could explore free agency, and while the team may not splurge for a player like Trumaine Johnson or Sean Smith, there are plenty of second- or third-tier options that could appeal to the team, including Casey Hayward, Jeremy Lane, Nolan Carroll, and Antonio Cromartie. The draft class isn’t particularly overflowing with cornerback talent, but if Washington considers selecting one in the first round, Clemson’s Mackensie Alexander and Ohio State’s Eli Apple are among the possible options at No. 21.

At safety, perhaps defensive coordinator Joe Barry‘s time in San Diego could give Washington a leg up in the Eric Weddle sweepstakes. But if the club prefers to target a less expensive alternative, Isa Abdul-Quddus, Tyvon Branch, and Dwight Lowery – who has a Manusky connection – are a few of the many possibilities.

Many of Washington’s other potential positions of need will be dependent on how the team approaches free agency. Kirk Cousins almost certainly isn’t going anywhere, but if he does, quarterback shoots to the top of the team’s list of needs. If Alfred Morris departs in free agency and Andre Roberts is cut, the team will also be in the market for a potential No. 2 back and perhaps a complementary wideout.

On the offensive line, Washington appears to have three solid starters in Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff, and Morgan Moses. However, that leaves center and one guard spot up for grabs. Kory Lichtensteiger, Spencer Long, Shawn Lauvao, and perhaps UFA Josh LeRibeus could end up vying for those two openings, but if the team goes out and seriously addresses the interior line by adding a solid free agent or a high draft pick, suddenly one or two of those incumbent veterans will become expendable.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Jordan Reed (Vertical)With Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce having signed new contract extensions already this offseason, 2013 third-rounder Jordan Reed now has a blueprint for the sort of deal he can expect when his rookie contract expires. Reed racked up an impressive 87 receptions for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns in just 14 games in 2015, outperforming both Ertz and Kelce across the board.

Since Reed’s stock is soaring as he comes off a career year, Washington may be reluctant to engage its tight end in contract talks immediately, since there’s no reason he won’t view Ertz’s and Kelce’s deals as a baseline for his own extension. That could mean a deal approaching $10MM per year and $50MM in total value. Reed is certainly talented, but the club may want to see him stay healthy for another season before investing heavily in him.

Another pass-catcher, DeSean Jackson, is entering the final year of his current contract, but Jackson will be 30 when his deal expires. He also missed time in 2015 with injuries, and averaged a career-low 52.8 receiving yards per game when he did play, so Washington won’t be rushing to offer him a mega-deal. But a short-term extension could reduce Jackson’s 2016 cap hit, which is currently $9.25MM, and could keep the veteran wideout happy going forward. It’s something worth exploring if the price is right.

Washington may also want to consider extending defensive end Chris Baker, who had a career year in 2015. Pro Football Focus ranked Baker 22nd out of 123 interior defenders, and the 28-year-old earned impressive grades against the run and as a pass rusher. No defensive lineman saw more playing time for Washington in ’15 than Baker, who set a new career-high with six sacks. The team will want to get younger on the defensive line eventually, but that will probably mean moving on from players like Jason Hatcher and Terrance Knighton — Baker should still have a few more productive seasons in him.

Meanwhile, if Washington wants to restructure some contracts in order to create some extra cap flexibility for 2016, the team should avoid adjusting Trent Williams‘ or Ryan Kerrigan‘s deals. Both players will see their cap hits rise significantly after the 2016 season, so bumping this year’s number down and increasing those future-year hits will only create further problems down the line. Chris Culliver‘s contract is a more appealing candidate for a restructure.

Overall Outlook:

Washington spent several years as an NFL punchline, based on the team’s poor free agent and roster decisions, but new GM Scot McCloughan made some savvy moves without breaking the bank a year ago, and head coach Jay Gruden‘s decision to stick with Kirk Cousins over ownership favorite Robert Griffin III paid major dividends.

With a healthy Tony Romo expected in their lineup for 2016, the Cowboys will be poised to bounce back and make a run at Washington’s division crown, and the Giants – armed with a ton of cap space – and the Eagles – led by new head coach Doug Pederson – can’t be ruled out either in the NFC East. Still, Washington’s 2015 success doesn’t look like an anomaly. If Cousins returns for 2016 and doesn’t regress significantly, Washington should be prepared to contend again. Another series of smart personnel additions from McCloughan will be crucial as the franchise attempts to continue filling the holes on its roster.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

3 comments Offseason Outlook PFR Originals Washington Commanders

2016 NFL Offseason Previews By Team

By | at February 26, 2016 11:20 am

Over the last few weeks, Pro Football Rumors has been taking a closer look at the 2016 offseason on a team-by-team basis. Our Offseason Outlook series focuses on each club’s key free agents, potential cap casualties, positions of need, and other issues facing teams this winter.

Just in case you missed our offseason preview for your favorite team, we’re rounding up all of our Offseason Outlook pieces in this post, which can be found anytime on our right-hand sidebar under “PFR Features.” We have several more teams to examine before free agency officially gets underway on March 9th, so if your team isn’t linked below, be sure to keep a close eye on PFR — it’ll be coming soon.

Here are the links to our 2016 NFL Offseason Outlook pieces to date:

AFC East:

AFC North:

AFC South:

AFC West:

NFC East:

NFC North:

NFC South:

NFC West:

1 comment PFR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Falcons

By | at February 25, 2016 10:22 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Matt Ryan, QB: $23,750,000
  2. Julio Jones, WR: $15,900,000
  3. Paul Soliai, DT: $6,837,500
  4. Sam Baker, T: $6,400,000 (dead money)
  5. Tyson Jackson, DT: $6,350,000
  6. Roddy White, WR: $6,137,500
  7. Andy Levitre, G: $5,375,000
  8. Jake Matthews, T: $4,480,773
  9. Jon Asamoah, G: $3,900,000 (dead money)
  10. Devin Hester, WR/KR: $3,833,334
  11. Brooks Reed, OLB: $3,440,000
  12. William Moore, S: $3,300,000 (dead money)
  13. Vic Beasley, DE: $3,294,370
  14. Matt Bryant, K: $2,870,833
  15. Matt Bosher, P: $2,700,000

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • Front office: Parted ways with director of player personnel Lionel Vital; hired former Chiefs assistant GM Joel Collier as director of pro personnel.
  • Scouting department: Hired former GMs Phil Emery and Ruston Webster as national scouts.
  • Offensive staff: Lost WRs coach Terry Robiskie, who became Titans’ offensive coordinator.
  • Defensive staff: Hired Cowboys DBs coach Jerome Henderson as defensive passing game coordinator.

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

Last offseason, the Falcons’ hiring of Dan Quinn as head coach was the worst-kept secret in football for what felt like forever. After the Super Bowl, however, the Seahawks defensive coordinator finally was able to put pen to paper with Atlanta.Dan Quinn

A former defensive line coach, Quinn led the league’s top defense in Seattle in each of the last two seasons as the club’s defensive coordinator. While his stint with the Seahawks had an unfortunate ending, Quinn was regarded as one of the leading head coaching candidates of the offseason. Some expected that the highly touted defensive mind would vault the Falcons to the NFC South title, but it wound up being an up-and-down season in Atlanta, one that resulted in an 8-8 record.

At the outset of the year, it looked as though the Falcons and Panthers would go neck and neck for supremacy in the division and conference. However, after a 5-0 start, the Falcons started slipping. By Week 13, Atlanta had gone from undefeated to .500, and that’s exactly where they finished.

Even though the Falcons did not meet the expectations set for them in the fall, there were still a number of bright spots. On offense, Julio Jones turned in another stellar season and once again proved why he’s one of the league’s premier wide receivers. In the backfield, the Falcons got production at the running back position, but not from the running back they were banking on. Rookie tailback Tevin Coleman won the starting job in training camp but those plans were scuttled when he suffered a concussion in Week 2. From that point forward, Devonta Freeman took over the job and established himself as a rising star. For the season, Freeman racked up 1,061 yards on the ground and added 578 receiving yards.

On defense, Desmond Trufant turned in one heck of a performance, finishing the year as the No. 13 cornerback in the league according to the advanced metrics at Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Trufant allowed only 32 receptions, putting him right behind Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman‘s league-leading 31 (among qualified corners). Overall, though, the Falcons’ defense finished in the middle of the pack in both passing and rushing yards allowed.

Can Quinn & Co. overtake the Panthers as NFC South champions in 2016? Here’s a look at their options this spring:

Key Free Agents:

Restricted free agent tackle Ryan Schraeder may require at least a second-round tender for Atlanta to keep him after an impressive third season. Schraeder receiving the second-round tender would cost the Falcons ~$2.47MM, but would allow another team to sign him while surrendering only a second-round pick. An ex-UDFA, Schraeder made $585K last season. A first-round tender figures to cost in the neighborhood of $3.5MM, and that could be the safer route for the Falcons to take if they really want to make sure they keep Schraeder.

Fellow RFAs Paul Worrilow and Nathan Stupar will probably be retained as well. Worrilow may have started for the Falcons out of necessity in 2015, but he was a starter nonetheless. Stupar, meanwhile, had a solid year for the Falcons under the minimum salary and he could be back on something a little more lucrative in 2016.

Adrian ClaybornIn 2014, Adrian Clayborn was hoping to establish himself in his contract year, but he didn’t get the opportunity to show what he could do before hitting the open market. The defensive end played only one game in ’14 before being placed on IR by the Buccaneers. Clayborn later landed a one-year deal with the Falcons, giving him an opportunity to bring his value back up to where it should be.

Clayborn, 28 in July, turned in a full 16-game season and showed that he can be an effective rotation piece. Even though he’s not the player that the Bucs envisioned when they took him No. 20 overall in 2011, Clayborn has given himself some juice heading into free agency this time around. Clayborn could go for another one-year deal to try and get paid in the spring of 2017, but he might be better served by getting the best of both worlds and going for a modest two-year deal. Either way, the Falcons should have some interest, once they take care of their more pressing priorities.

Kroy Biermann has been with the Falcons ever since his entry into the league in 2008. Last year, Biermann had an opportunity to leave but re-signed with Atlanta a few weeks after the opening of free agency. Will he re-up again? Quinn will probably look to bring more of his type of guys into the mix, and that could mean a departure for the 30-year-old (31 in September).

Biermann started a career-high 15 games for the Falcons in 2014, racking up 77 tackles and 4.5 sacks to go along with a forced fumble. In 867 defensive snaps, he recorded a -5.7 grade on Pro Football Focus (subscription required), but that was largely due to a poor rating in pass coverage — he was an above-average run defender and held his own as a pass rusher. This past season, he played in a reserve role, and that’s probably what awaits him with his 2016 team, whether it’s the Falcons or another club.

In September 2015, the Falcons landed Jake Long on a one-year deal. Unfortunately, the former No. 1 overall pick could not give the team a full season of production. Long did not make his debut until December 13th, giving him a combined 11 games of action over the last two years. Now, Long is eligible for free agency once again and he could be on his way to team No. 3. If he stays with the Falcons, he likely won’t have an opportunity to start, with Jake Matthews and Schraeder penciled in at the two tackle spots.

O’Brien Schofield followed Quinn to Atlanta and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him re-sign for another season. The linebacker probably won’t be getting a starting job with the Falcons in 2016, but he can provide the team with some veteran leadership and some guidance, given his familiarity with Quinn’s defensive scheme.

Veteran linebacker Philip Wheeler could be back for another season. Cornerback Phillip Adams, meanwhile, seems less likely to return after a so-so 2015. Center Gino Gradkowski, whom Atlanta plucked off waivers in September, could be welcomed back once the team takes care of its top free agents.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Falcons will reportedly release defensive tackle Paul Soliai on or after the start of the new league year on March 9. By waiting until March 9, the Falcons will absorb Soliai’s dead money hit — a charge of $4.2MM — on their 2016 salary cap. If the club opts to designate Soliai as a post-June 1 cut, it will take on dead money totals of $1.4MM in 2016 and and $2.8MM in 2017.

Having just finished the second season of a five-year deal, the 32-year-old Soliai was poised to earn a base salary of $4.5MM, accompanied by a cap figure of $6.9MM. From the Falcons’ perspective, that cap charge was likely excessive, as Soliai’s snap count in Dan Quinn‘s defense had dropped to 357 in 2015 (down from 502 in Mike Smith‘s unit in 2014). Add in the fact that Soliai wasn’t overly effective, grading as just the No. 57 interior defender last season per Pro Football Focus, and it probably makes sense that Atlanta is cutting bait. The Falcons did try to get Soliai to take a pay cut, but the two sides could not come to terms.Roddy White

Could Roddy White be the next veteran to go? The wide receiver was once the heart and soul of the Falcons’ passing attack, but he slumped through his worst season as a starter in 2015. After catching 43 passes for 506 yards in 16 games, White could be a cap casualty.

White’s salaries for 2016 and 2017 are relatively modest – $2.75MM and $3MM, respectively – but he can earn $1.5MM in bonuses each season as well — $1MM for making the 53-man roster, then up to an additional $500K in per-game roster bonuses. Throw in $1.888MM in annual prorated signing bonus money and White’s cap numbers for the next two seasons exceed $6MM, making him the sixth-most expensive player on the roster. In order for those cap charge to be viable, the Falcons would have to count on White bouncing back and exceeding his 2015 numbers, but it’s not clear that sort of rebound is in the cards for the veteran wideout.

The Falcons acquired veteran guard Andy Levitre from the Titans in early September with the hopes that he could get back to his old form. Unfortunately, Levitre didn’t do much to help hold down the fort on the interior of the offensive line. Levitre restructured his deal shortly after joining the Falcons, but that might not be enough to save his place with the squad this year. If they cut him, the Falcons can save roughly $4MM against the cap.

Positions Of Need:

The Falcons were supposed to have an aggressive defense just like Quinn’s in Seattle. That, ultimately, didn’t turn out to be the case. After some promising results early on, the Falcons’ D wound up finishing last in the NFL in sacks with 19 in total. The Falcons badly need an edge rusher and there are free agent options out there. If he reaches the open market somehow, then Muhammad Wilkerson would make a tremendous addition for the Falcons. Fellow Meadowlands resident Jason Pierre-Paul is probably more likely to reach the open market, however, and he wouldn’t break the bank.

Linebacker Bruce Irvin told the media in January that he would take less money on his second contract to stay with the Seahawks. However, one has to wonder if that’s really the case with the Falcons lurking and in need of linebackers. Atlanta could offer Irvin a reunion with Quinn and also a return to his hometown. If they can’t land Irvin, someone like Rolando McClain would also be an intriguing pickup, provided that he is not retained by the Cowboys. For what it’s worth, defensive coordinator Richard Smith previously served as the Broncos’ linebackers coach, so he’s familiar with pending free agent Danny Trevathan.

When Matt Ryan had Tony Gonzalez as a security blanket, things were clicking in Atlanta. In his five seasons in Atlanta, Gonzalez secured 409 receptions for 4,187 yards and 35 touchdowns. Last year, Jacob Tamme recorded 59 receptions for 647 yards, but that didn’t quite replicate the spark that the team has been missing since 2013. The Falcons would like to figure something out at tight end as they look to resuscitate their once lethal passing attack.

In the secondary, the Falcons have to figure out a solution at safety. William Moore, a former Pro Bowler, was lackluster in 2015 and he was handed his walking papers earlier this month. Eric Berry would be nothing short of a home run for the Falcons, but he seems likely to get the franchise tag from the Chiefs if the two sides can’t hammer out a multi-year deal. The Falcons may have to aim lower, but we expect that they’ll still spend to bolster the position.

Desmond TrufantIf the Falcons say goodbye to White this offseason, then they’ll have to look into getting some new blood at wide receiver. Travis Benjamin seems less and less likely to stay with the Browns at this point and he’d make one heck of a No. 2 option opposite of Julio Jones.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Former first-round pick Desmond Trufant could be an extension candidate for the Falcons this offseason. The cornerback is coming of a strong year in which Pro Football Focus (sub. req’d) rated him as the 13th-best corner in the NFL. Trufant appears to be a hit from the 2013 draft class and the Falcons would be wise to lock him down before he could get really big bucks down the road.

Still, Trufant is eligible for a fifth-year option in 2017, meaning that if the Falcons can’t reach common ground with him on a longer-term deal this offseason, they could simply exercise their option and revisit negotiations a year from now.

Overall Outlook:

Quinn’s first year in Atlanta didn’t go quite as planned, but the early portion of the season showed that there’s plenty to get excited about going forward. If the Falcons can use their cap space and flexibility wisely, they can put themselves in position to get back to the postseason in 2016.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

0 comments Atlanta Falcons Offseason Outlook PFR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Houston Texans

By | at February 23, 2016 10:30 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. J.J. Watt, DE: $14,500,000
  2. Duane Brown, T: $9,500,000
  3. Brian Cushing, ILB: $9,047,500
  4. Arian Foster, RB: $8,925,000
  5. Kareem Jackson, CB: $8,437,500
  6. Johnathan Joseph, CB: $7,000,000
  7. Jadeveon Clowney, OLB: $6,074,454
  8. Whitney Mercilus, OLB: $5,800,000
  9. Derek Newton, T: $5,500,000
  10. Vince Wilfork, DT: $5,500,000
  11. Brian Hoyer, QB: $4,859,375
  12. Rahim Moore, S: $4,068,750
  13. Garrett Graham, TE: $3,875,000
  14. Cecil Shorts, WR: $3,421,875
  15. Akeem Dent, ILB: $2,562,500

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • Defensive staff: LBs coach Mike Vrabel reportedly turned down offer to become 49ers’ DC to stay with Texans.
  • Special teams coordinator: Hired Giants assistant ST coach Larry Izzo to replace Bob Ligashesky.

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

The Texans snuck into the playoffs last season, winning the AFC South with a record of 9-7 before losing to Chiefs in the Wild Card round. 2015 can be labeled a success in Houston, to be sure, but the division title has to be taken with a grain of salt, as the Colts stumbled to a 8-8 record while relying on 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck, and the Jaguars and Titans were still in the midst of rebuilding (each own top-five picks in the 2016 draft).Bill O'Brien (Vertical)

It was a tale of two halves in Houston, and the club’s postseason berth can be tied to its improved level of play — at least, on the defensive side of the ball — after the bye week in early November. The Texans defense allowed just 270 yards per game from Week 10, as opposed to 350 yards per contest before the break. The numbers improved in each phase of the game, as the club’s passing yards allowed per game dropped from 231 to 193 after the bye, and its rushing yards allowed per game dropped from 104 to just 76. During the season’s final three games (all Houston victories), the Texans gave up just 112 (!) total yards on the ground.

The club was least successful on offense, thanks in part to injuries suffered by star running back Arian Foster — the 29-year-old sustained a groin injury in training camp that caused him to miss the first three weeks of the season, and he played in just four games before tearing his Achilles. We’ll get into Foster’s long-term status with the Texans a bit later, but his absence was certainly felt throughout the season.

Houston’s passing game was pretty ineffective all season (22nd in DVOA), but Brian Hoyer was actually competent, posting career-highs in completion percentage and passing touchdowns. He only started nine games, however, due both to injury and head coach Bill O’Brien‘s waffling between Hoyer and Ryan Mallett, and both T.J. Yates and Brandon Weeden were forced to make starts.

The Texans’ roster boasts legitimate stars in J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins, above-average players like Duane Brown and Kareem Jackson, and intriguing youth at important positions in Jadeveon Clowney and Kevin Johnson. The core is certainly there, but can Houston find its long-term signal-caller?

Key Free Agents:

The three most important Texans free agents play on the line, and two of them — guard Brandon Brooks and center Ben Jones — take their stances on the offensive side of the ball. Of the pair, Jones is probably more likely to return in 2016. In his first season transitioning from guard to center, Jones acquitted himself well, grading as the 18th-best at his position, per Pro Football Focus. Jones is the best available free agent center, however, so the Texans might face competition for his services if they aren’t able to re-sign him before March 9.Brandon Brooks (Vertical)

Brooks, meanwhile, will certainly attract other suitors around the league, as Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle reported earlier this month that Brooks will be in “heavy demand” if he reaches free agency. Brooks, 26, has been a stalwart at right guard during the past three years, starting 44 games during that period. He should be able to land a four-year deal on the open market.

The third key free agent lineman is a defender, defensive end Jared Crick. The 26-year-old Crick has started all but one game for Houston over the past two seasons, lining up at end opposite J.J. Watt. He has expressed his desire to remain with the Texans, but if he’s looking for a big payday in his first trip to free agency, he’s unlikely to find it. Not only would Houston likely balk at paying two defensive lineman hefty salaries, but Crick simply isn’t in the same class as other 3-4 ends like Mike Daniels or Cameron Heyward.

Elsewhere on defense, safety Quintin Demps was a surprise contributor, starting 13 games despite not being signed until August. He wasn’t great, but he was solid in the back end, and though he’s entering his age-31 season, I wouldn’t be shocked if Houston brought Demps back on a low-cost deal, especially if they don’t plan on spending capital on safety in either the draft or free agency.Nate Washington (Vertical)

Like Demps, Nate Washington offered more in 2015 than most expected, posting 47 receptions and four touchdowns while starting 14 games. But the Texans need to add a more accomplished (and younger) wideout to compliment DeAndre Hopkins, something I’ve outlined below. At 32 years old, Washington may not have a place on a contending team’s roster.

As part of the cavalry that filled in for Arian Foster, Chris Polk played in 22.5% of Houston’s offensive snaps, but averaged just 3.4 yards per carry on the ground. Polk was hyped as something of a passing game specialist, and though he did manage 16 receptions, I expect the Texans to move on, and go forth with Alfred Blue and either a draft pick or a free agent addition.

Chris Clark filled in at left tackle during Duane Brown‘s absence, and started four games in total along the offensive line. He’d make a fine swing tackle for another season in 2016, but the Texans shouldn’t overpay to keep him. If another team wants to offer more money to make Clark their starting right tackle, Houston should let him leave.

Shane Lechler finished just 26th in net punting average, and was in the bottom half of the league in dropping punts inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. The veteran punter will be 40 years old when the season starts, and the Texans might need to look elsewhere. The same might hold true at kicker — Nick Novak only missed three kicks (all from 50+ yards), but he did also fail to convert two extra point attempts. Houston also finished 29th in kickoff touchback percentage, so perhaps the club can find a kicker with a more powerful leg.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The most obvious candidate for release on the Texans roster is running back Arian Foster, who, as noted above, missed all but four games last season after suffering multiple injuries. He’ll be 30 years old when the season begins, and he has averaged just eight games played over the past three years. Due to count almost $9MM against the cap in 2016, Foster is likely to be cut — saving Houston about $6.6MM — or at the very least, restructured. Owner Bob McNair said last month that the club would like to see how Foster progresses from his Achilles injury before making a decision.Arian Foster (Vertical)

Houston’s hunt for a quarterback is covered in detail in the next section, but the status of incumbent signal-caller Brian Hoyer is very much up in the air. Ultimately, Hoyer is more than capable as a backup QB, and his ~$4.89MM salary is right in line with Jaguars signal-caller Chad Henne, another recently-signed reserve quarterback. Whether he’s competing for the starting job again next year, or relegated to backup duty, Hoyer’s cap charge is palatable.

Two players making decent money — tight end Garrett Graham and safety Rahim Moore — were effectively written out of the Texans’ game plan down the stretch, as each was a healthy scratch for much of the second half of the season. Houston will almost certainly cut both, saving nearly $7MM in the process.

Finally, linebacker Brian Cushing could be in danger of being released, or at least being asked to accept a pay cut. Owner of the third-highest 2016 cap number of the Texans roster, Cushing graded as just the 70th-best linebacker among 97 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus. The 29-year-old Cushing would probably have to be designated as a post-June 1 cut, which would save Houston $6.25MM next season.

Positions Of Need:

One question is likely on the mind of every Texans fan: Where could this club have gone with an above-average starting quarterback? Finding a franchise signal-caller is item No. 1 on the team’s offseason docket, and until the Texans find such a passer, their upside — despite their dominant defense — is limited.

Texans owner Bob McNair indicated earlier this month that his team would seek a quarterback upgrade, and heavily implied that such addition would come through the draft. At pick No. 22, Houston is unlikely to be in a position to select either of the two top QBs in this year’s draft class, Cal’s Jared Goff or North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz. But using the classic NFL trade value chart, we can see the approximate costs if the Texans wanted to move up (I used mid-round values for future years, so 16th and 48th overall in the first and second rounds, respectively):

Texans trade

Each package listed is steep, to be sure, but the prices generated by the value chart might be shortchanging what the Texans would have to give up. The theoretical Titans haul, you’ll notice, is identical to what the Rams received from Washington in 2012 — and that deal was only allowing Washington to move from No. 6 to No. 2, as opposed to Houston’s hypothetical 21-spot jump.

Still, that Rams/Washington trade is largely though of as overpay (especially considering how Robert Griffin III‘s career panned out), and the wider point stands: it would take quite a slew of draft picks to convince one of the Titans, Browns, or Chargers to move down. So if the Texans are forced to wait until pick No. 22 — or a later round — to select a quarterback, they may have to settle for Memphis’ Paxton Lynch (if they’re lucky), Michigan State’s Connor Cook, or Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg (a former charge of Bill O’Brien).

Of course, the draft isn’t the only avenue the Texans might take in the search for a quarterback, as free agency is an option, too. No club is ever likely to find an elite option on the open market, but there are some competent starters who will be available, starting with the Eagles’ Sam Bradford. Bradford is not expected to see the franchise tag in Philadelphia, but he will still probably command $18MM annually; with more than $32MM in projected cap space, Houston could make that figure work.

Elsewhere in free agency, the Texans could make a play to reunite with Ryan Fitzpatrick, but he’s widely expected to stay in New York. The Broncos, meanwhile, are expected to use their franchise tag on linebacker Von Miller, meaning Brock Osweiler could be available for the taking. Osweiler is said to be comfortable in Denver and likely wants to stay there, but Houston could try to change his mind with a hefty contract.

In exhausting all options, Houston might also look to the trade market to find a new QB. The best choice via that route is probably Colin Kaepernick, who is known to want out of San Francisco, but the Jets’ Geno Smith is also thought to be a trade candidate. Other available quarterbacks — of varying trade cost — might be A.J. McCarron, Zach Mettenberger, and Mike Glennon (who is perpetually not on the trade block).

Finally, at least one reporter — in this case, Tania Ganguli of ESPN.com — believes 2014 fourth-round pick Tom Savage could be fighting for the Texans’ starting job. The ESPN scribe opines that Savage could fight it out with a yet-to-determined rookie for the starting job, with the loser falling to third on the depth chart, and Brian Hoyer sticking around as the No. 2.

While quarterback is an obvious area of need on the Texans’ roster, many of their other potential areas of focus could depend on decisions the club has yet to make. At running back, for example, the release of Arian Foster would create a large hole in the backfield, one that could be filled either by a mid-round draft pick, or by signing a bell-cow like Chris Ivory or Doug Martin. I don’t see the Texans investing enough at running back to lure a big-name free agent, so perhaps drafting a back and pairing him with a lower-cost signing (Bilal Powell? James Starks?) could be one way to go.

Similarly, the offensive line is set at three spots with Duane Brown, Derek Newton, and Xavier Su’a-Filo, but center and right guard are up in the air pending the outcome of Ben Jones and Brandon Brooks‘ free agency. If the Texans do need to bring in reinforcements, one option might be the Patriots’ Marcus Cannon, who is thought to be a candidate for release in New England. The 27-year-old Cannon, who played under O’Brien with the Pats, has spent a decent chunk of time at tackle, but can also play guard, so he could act as a valuable reserve who could be pressed into starting duty if need be. Another low-cost option at guard could be Willie Colon, a free agent who spent time under offensive line coach Mike Devlin with the Jets.

Another point of concern on Houston’s offense is at wide receiver — while Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington were actually pretty productive behind DeAndre Hopkins, the veterans are 28 and 32 years old, respectively, so the Texans might want to get a bit younger. New receivers coach Sean Ryan comes to the club from the Giants, so it’s logical to connect the Texans to Rueben Randle (who is a young free agent at just 24). I also think this is a spot where Houston could use an early draft pick, and they also have last year’s third-round pick Jaelen Strong waiting in the wings.

On defense, the only area that could obviously use improvement is safety, where each of the four players who saw significant time there — Andre Hal, Quintin Demps, Rahim Moore, and Eddie Pleasant — posted middling Pro Football Focus marks (all graded between Nos. 47 and 66 among 88 qualifiers). Hal, a former seventh-round pick, looks to be a find, but Houston could probably aim for another contributor at the position. Eric Berry would certainly be a nice addition — and has experience playing under defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel — but he’s likely to stay in Kansas City. Luckily, the safety market is flush with free agents, so Rodney McLeod or Tashaun Gipson could be options if Houston wants to spend at the top of the market, as could Isa Abdul-Quddus or Dwight Lowery if it doesn’t.

Lastly, the Texans might need a replacement for defensive end Jared Crick if he leaves via free agency. Simply by connecting coaching dots, free agent Randy Starks — experienced with line coach Anthony Weaver — could make sense as a successor. And on special teams, the recently-released Andy Studebaker, who was a special-teams stalwart and reserve linebacker under Crennel (and alongside Houston coach Mike Vrabel), might come on the cheap.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

A no-brainer if there ever was one, the Texans will exercise their fifth-year option on receiver DeAndre Hopkins, ensuring that he’ll remain in Houston through at least 2017. He’s now eligible for an extension, and after a season in which he ranked second in both receptions and receiving yards, and scored 11 touchdowns, Hopkins is set up to ask for the moon.DeAndre Hopkins (Vertical)

Calvin Johnson‘s $16MM+ annual rate probably won’t be topped any time soon, but Hopkins has every right to ask for A.J. Green‘s $15MM per year figure. And while Green only garnered a four-year term, and thus a lower guarantee, Hopkins figures to ask for five years and more than $35MM guaranteed, on par with Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, and Demaryius Thomas. Hopkins has made it clear he’d like to be a Texan for life, so perhaps negotiations won’t be too difficult.

Outside of Hopkins, the 2013 draft was largely a failure for the Texans, so most of the other extension-eligible players from that class either aren’t on the roster anymore or aren’t worth extending. The only exception might be tight end Ryan Griffin, who was selected in the seventh round of that draft. He has overtaken Garrett Graham on the depth chart, and if Bill O’Brien feels that Griffin is a good fit for his offense, now could be a good time to look at a long-term deal.

Overall Outlook:

If the Texans don’t find a long-term answer at quarterback, any other move they make this offseason is essentially moot. Yes, Houston won the division last season, and even without a QB upgrade, they should be competitive again. But with Andrew Luck expected back with the Colts at full strength, the path to the AFC South title will get a lot more challenging. The Texans have other items on their to-do list — make a decision on Arian Foster, extend DeAndre Hopkins, find a legitimate No. 2 wideout — but the search for a top-flight signal-caller should take precedence over all else.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2 comments Houston Texans Offseason Outlook PFR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Buffalo Bills

By | at February 22, 2016 10:00 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 15 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Mario Williams, DE: $19,900,000
  2. Marcell Dareus, DT: $14,550,000
  3. Charles Clay, TE: $13,500,000
  4. Stephon Gilmore, CB: $11,082,000
  5. Kyle Williams, DT: $8,000,000
  6. LeSean McCoy, RB: $7,675,000
  7. Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB: $7,575,000
  8. Eric Wood, C: $6,725,000
  9. Aaron Williams, S: $6,100,000
  10. Sammy Watkins, WR: $5,436,983
  11. Corey Graham, CB: $5,375,000
  12. Leodis McKelvin, CB: $4,900,000
  13. Manny Lawson, LB: $3,400,000
  14. Tyrod Taylor, QB: $3,133,333
  15. Dan Carpenter, K: $2,837,500

Notable coaching/front office moves:

  • Defensive staff: Hired former Saints DC Rob Ryan as assistant head coach/defense.
  • Defensive staff: Hired former Ravens S Ed Reed as assistant defensive backs coach.
  • General manager: Extended Doug Whaley through 2019 season.

Draft:

  • No. 19 overall pick
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Vikings in deal for QB Matt Cassel.

Other:

Overview:

When the Bills hired Rex Ryan as their head coach last winter, he expressed a desire to construct a team capable of beating opponents into submission with a suffocating defense and a dominant running game. He also spoke optimistically about the prospect of the club breaking what was then an NFL-worst streak of 15 straight years without a playoff berth.

Twelve months later, the postseason drought is at 16 years after the Ryan-led Bills finished 8-8, a slight drop from the team’s 9-7 mark in 2014. As for Ryan’s build-a-bully approach, he got half of what he wanted. It just wasn’t the half anyone expected.

The Bills had arguably the top defense in the AFC under ex-coordinator Jim Schwartz in 2014, but Ryan dismissed Schwartz Rex Ryan (vertical) after his hiring because of their differing philosophies. Given Ryan’s reputation as a defensive guru, it wasn’t foolish to think the Bills’ defense would continue to thrive – perhaps even improve – with him running it. Instead, the unit took a tremendous step backward under Ryan and coordinator Dennis Thurman, going from top five in points, yards, sacks, and takeaways in 2014 to middle of the pack in most of those categories last season. The starkest decline was in sacks, in which the Bills stunningly reversed course from No. 1 in the league two years ago to second-last with Ryan and Thurman at the controls.

On the other hand, offensive coordinator Greg Roman presided over an attack that accomplished Ryan’s ground-and-pound goal en route to first-place rankings in both rushing yards and per-carry average. Two running backs, LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor – all offseason pickups a year ago – were the main catalysts behind the Bills’ rushing success.

Unfortunately for the Bills, McCoy’s status for next season isn’t assured because of a pending investigation against him. Philadelphia District Attorney R. Seth Williams is considering whether to charge the four-time Pro Bowler for his alleged role in a nightclub brawl with off-duty police officers on Feb. 7. Even if Williams opts against charges and McCoy gets off scot-free from a legal standpoint, that doesn’t mean he’ll dodge a suspension from the league.

Before McCoy found himself in trouble, the biggest stories of the Bills’ young offseason centered on their front office and coaching staff. Shortly after the Bills’ season ended, general manager Doug Whaley got a contract extension through 2019 – the same year Ryan’s deal expires.

Ryan, meanwhile, hired his brother Rob Ryan in a prominent role: assistant head coach/defense. Rob Ryan was previously the defensive coordinator for the Saints, who fired him last November after he oversaw a unit that was allowing 424.7 yards per game at the time of his dismissal. Had the Saints kept up that pace, it would’ve been the second-worst all-time total for a full season. Nevertheless, Rex Ryan called his brother “a great football coach” earlier this month, and the two of them will team with Thurman as they attempt to turn around an underachieving defense next season.

Key Free Agents:

The Bills aren’t loaded with free agents who are primed to land major paydays in the coming weeks, but their top two unsigned players – left tackle Cordy Glenn and left guard Richie Incognito – were among the league’s premier offensive linemen last season. Glenn and Incognito comprised one of the best tackle-guard duos in the league, with both starting all 16 games and thriving in the process. Glenn was Pro Football Focus’ 10th-ranked tackle last season (subscription required), while Incognito placed second overall among guards.

"<strongGiven that Glenn’s much younger than Incognito (26 versus 32) and plays a position of higher priority, he’ll undoubtedly be the more expensive of the pair. Since the Bills used a second-round pick on Glenn in 2012, the former Georgia Bulldog has been a durable stalwart, appearing in 61 of a possible 64 games (all starts) and earning positive grades from PFF in each of his four seasons. Now, as one of the standouts in a market of pending free agent tackles that also features the likes of Russell Okung (Seahawks), Kelvin Beachum (Steelers) and Donald Penn (Raiders), Glenn is in position to collect an appreciable raise.

Glenn wouldn’t be out of his depth to push for a deal in the neighborhood of the one the Colts’ Anthony Castonzo netted last summer. At the time, Castonzo was similar to Glenn as a four-year veteran with 60-plus starts who was entering his age-27 season. Castonzo got $43.6MM ($18MM guaranteed) over four years, and now ranks 10th among left tackles in maximum value, fourth in annual worth ($10.95MM) and 11th in guarantees. The Colts still had control over Castonzo at the time, though, whereas Glenn is potentially weeks away from having teams engage in a bidding war for his services. Thus, Glenn has a strong opportunity to surpass Castonzo’s contract.

If the Bills and Glenn aren’t able to find common ground on an accord sometime this month, the club will have the option of placing the franchise tag on him by the March 1 deadline to prevent him from hitting the open market March 9. PFR’s Luke Adams identified Glenn as a viable candidate for the tag last week. If the Bills go that route, it’ll cost them just under $14MM next season. Locking up Glenn long term after tagging him would enable the Bills to lower that number, of course.

The Bills bought low on Incognito last season, inking him to a deal that included less than $1MM in base salary, after he missed most of 2013 and all of 2014 because of his role in a bullying scandal with the Dolphins. Considering his performance last season, the Bills won’t be nearly that lucky this year. However, Incognito will stay a Bill if he has his druthers.

“My goal is to come back and play in Buffalo. I love it there,” he said in January.

There’s obviously mutual admiration between Incognito and the Bills. Whaley opined in December that Incognito deserved to be in the running for Comeback Player of the Year – an award that ended up going the Chiefs’ Eric Berry (rightly so) – and stated last month that keeping both Incognito and Glenn would be “a major point of emphasis” (Twitter link via Joe Buscgalia of WKBW). The two sides remain without an agreement, though, and Incognito certainly isn’t in the running for the franchise tag. That means the Bills can either re-up him within the next couple weeks or risk watching him head elsewhere when free agency opens.

On paper, Incognito shouldn’t be that tough to re-sign. His age and past off-field issues don’t exactly make him ripe for a lengthy contract, and a fair dollar amount would put him in the range of $3MM to $4MM per year. Only nine left guards presently average more than $4MM annually. The majority of those players are still in their 20s. Those who aren’t signed their deals before they turned 30.

Linebacker Nigel Bradham is the Bills’ only other full-time starter who is scheduled for free agency. He didn’t come close to making the impact Glenn and Incognito did last season, however, as Bradham joined many of his cohorts in going backward under Ryan and Thurman. Despite that, the Bills and Bradham want to extend their four-year relationship, according to Tyler Dunne of The Buffalo News. Dunne reported Friday (via Twitter) that Bradham is willing to take a “prove-it” contract to remain in Buffalo. If the 26-year-old is truly open to that, it would make sense for the Bills to bring him back, have one fewer immediate need to address this offseason, and hope he adapts better to their defense in 2016.

Similarly, the Bills would do well to retain receiver Percy Harvin on a low-risk deal. They can’t count on him to fill a significant role, though, given his career-long injury issues. Harvin was a competent piece of the Bills’ offense early last season, catching 19 passes on 30 targets over the first five weeks, but the former Viking, Seahawk and Jet missed the remainder of the campaign with hip and knee ailments. Whaley revealed last month that the Bills hope to re-sign the 27-year-old.

The Bills have three restricted free agent agents who racked up sizable playing time last season in defensive lineman Corbin Bryant, safety Bacarri Rambo and receiver Chris Hogan. The trio combined for 22 starts (10 for Bryant, eight for Rambo, four for Hogan) and accrued well over 600 snaps apiece.

Buffalo is expected to tender a one-year offer to Bryant, per Dunne (Twitter link). All has been quiet on the Rambo and Hogan fronts thus far, meanwhile, but both are candidates to receive tenders. Rambo led Bills defenders with three forced fumbles last season. Hogan was fourth on the Bills in catches (36), aerial yards (450) and receiving touchdowns (two). He also played 39 percent of their special teams snaps.

Possible Cap Casualties:

Thanks to a combination of his subpar output last season and his exorbitant cap number ($19.9MM), defensive end Mario Williams faces long odds of ever putting on a Bills uniform again."<strong

Williams was a nonentity under Ryan and Thurman – his sack total plummeted from 14.5 to five, and he was largely invisible otherwise – and the 31-year-old was unafraid to voice his disenchantment with their scheme throughout the season. Going forward, the 10-year veteran is scheduled to easily pace the Bills in 2016 cap hit, but they’ll recoup most of that ($12.9MM, to be exact) if they release him. Williams, who signed with the Bills for $96MM in 2012, has missed only one game over the last four seasons and piled up 43 sacks.

The Bills might also move on from defensive back Leodis McKelvin, which would save them $3.9MM. It’s worth mentioning that the longtime cornerback told Dunne in December that he’d be open to shifting to safety and coming back at a lesser cap charge than his current $4.9MM. Those actions could help McKelvin return to Western New York for a ninth season.

Buffalo would save healthy amounts by cutting defensive lineman Kyle Williams ($5MM), safety Corey Graham ($3.38MM) and kicker Dan Carpenter ($1.76MM). That’s an improbable outcome in the cases of Williams and Graham, however, as both are starters and valuable contributors.

Carpenter disappointed last season after establishing himself as a high-end kicker in previous years. The 30-year-old was 18th out of 32 qualifiers in field goal accuracy (85.2 percent) and 31st in extra point success rate (85 percent). He also doesn’t handle kickoffs, forcing the Bills to use a roster spot on specialist Jordan Gay. With all of that considered, Carpenter’s hold on a roster spot looks tenuous.

The departures of backup offensive lineman Kraig Urbik ($1.78MM) and reserve running back Anthony Dixon ($1.15MM) look like good bets. Receiver Marquise Goodwin ($710K) and safety Duke Williams ($675K) aren’t safe either. Defensive end Jarius Wynn, who missed all of last season with a knee injury, could also be on the outs. Pink slipping him would net the Bills an extra $1MM.

Positions Of Need:

Should either or both of the Cordy Glenn–Richie Incognito duo walk, the Bills will be tasked with replacing at least one of their top two offensive linemen. As mentioned earlier, Russell Okung, Kelvin Beachum, and Donald Penn join Glenn as the cream-of-the-crop unsigned left tackles.

If the Bills are unable to meet Glenn’s demands, it’s hard to envision them ponying up for Okung, who is seeking a large payday despite durability concerns. The six-year veteran has missed 25 of a possible 96 contests and has never played a 16-game regular season. Moreover, he’s currently on the mend from recent shoulder surgery.

Beachum also hasn’t been the picture of health – the 26-year-old tore his ACL last season and missed 10 games. But, as Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com wrote last week, the highly talented Steelers tackle will have no shortage of suitors on the open market.

Penn, on the other hand, has been the quintessence of dependability, having missed zero games in his nine-year career. He has also started 16 games in eight straight seasons. Both Penn’s reliability and performance (he was PFF’s No. 11 tackle last season, one spot behind Glenn) are likely to lead him to a raise over the $4.8MM per year he made on his prior deal. Penn’s age (33 in April) should prevent him from finding anything long term, though.

Given how he fared last season and the fact that he won’t require a lengthy commitment, it’ll be puzzling if the Bills part with Incognito. Pending free agents like Kelechi Osemele (Ravens), Jeff Allen (Chiefs), Alex Boone (49ers) and Brandon Brooks (Texans) are all younger than Incognito and will get longer contracts as a result, but none are clearly superior players to Incognito at this juncture. Boone does have a notable connection to the Bills’ coaching staff – he played four years in Roman’s offense with the 49ers from 2011-14.

Evan Mathis (Broncos), Ramon Foster (Steelers) and Chris Chester (Falcons), like Incognito, are 30-somethings who are capable short-term Band-Aids. Interestingly, Whaley was a member of Pittsburgh’s front office when the club drafted Foster in 2009. Foster, who has since started 87 games, ranked as PFF’s 16th-best guard last season.

Unfortunately for the Bills, they also have issues on the right side of their O-line. Tackle Seantrel Henderson has started all 26 of his appearances since the Bills took him in the seventh round of the 2014 draft, but he hasn’t made enough progress to automatically keep his job for a third season. If the Bills venture into free agency for someone better, Joe Barksdale – who has made 45 starts over the last three years – jumps out as an enticing option who shouldn’t cost a bank-breaking amount. The ex-Ram took a one-year, low-money deal in San Diego last offseason and proceeded to play the second-most snaps in the league among tackles (1,150). His play earned him a No. 21 overall ranking among 77 qualifying OTs from PFF.

In the event the Bills address their O-line early in the draft, tackles Jack Conklin (Michigan State), Taylor Decker (Ohio State) and Jerald Hawkins (LSU) are possibilities at No. 19. Kansas State guard Cody Whitehair could also draw their interest.

Elsewhere on offense, the Bills aren’t sure what they have at quarterback, the sport’s paramount position. After spending the first four years of his career as a backup in Baltimore, Tyrod Taylor signed on the cheap with the Bills last winter in hopes of winning their starting job. Taylor did just that over the summer, beating out two career mediocrities in Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel, and then played better than anyone could have realistically expected during the season. As a passer, Taylor completed 63.7 percent of his throws, finished fifth in yards per attempt (7.99), seventh in rating (99.4) and added 20 touchdowns against just six interceptions. He complemented his solid passing skills with world-class mobility, chipping in 568 rushing yards (second to Cam Newton among QBs) and four more TDs.

While it was a successful year for Taylor, the Bills may not be sold on him as a franchise guy quite yet. They won’t find anyone better on the free agent market, but both Whaley and Ryan have left the door ajar with respect to drafting a QB this year. The Bills were one of the teams that showed the most interest throughout last season in North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz, whom they scouted extensively, NDSU quarterbacks coach Randy Hedberg told Dunne. Wentz probably won’t be available when the Bills are on the clock at No. 19, but Whaley hasn’t been shy about trading up in the past and could do it again if Wentz is still on the board within a few selections of Buffalo.

The Bills are also fans of Stanford’s Kevin Hogan, according to Tony Pauline of DraftInsider.Net. Hogan is a likely mid-round pick, so it’s doubtful he’d be a threat to Taylor next season even if the Bills drafted him. It’s possible Hogan would be able to push Manuel off the roster and serve as the No. 2 behind Taylor, though Whaley and Ryan both like Manuel. Further, releasing the former first-rounder would save the Bills nothing and leave them with nearly $2.83MM in dead money in 2016.

Regardless of who’s under center for the Bills next season, the organization seems intent on giving him more to work with at receiver. With Whaley suggesting last month that Robert Woods is losing his grip on the No. 2 spot, the Bills don’t have anyone of much consequence behind Sammy Watkins. Not surprisingly, then, they’ll “seriously look into” drafting a wideout, according to Whaley (Twitter link via Buscaglia).

Player personnel director Jim Monos expressed further dissatisfaction with the team’s receiving corps, Watkins excluded, telling WGR 550, “We need to get somebody opposite of Sammy to be a real threat to that defense. I think that’s a big key for our offense, to take one more step.”

If the Bills are bold enough to draft another first-round receiver – keep in mind that, because they traded up for Watkins in 2014, they essentially used two No. 1s on him – a few names to watch include Laquon Treadwell of Ole Miss and the Ohio State tandem of Michael Thomas and Braxton Miller.

In free agency, it’s unrealistic to think Buffalo will reel in a big fish like Marvin Jones, who’s reportedly seeking $7MM annually, or fellow Bengal Mohamed Sanu (he could get $5MM per year). Not many would classify Seahawks free agent-to-be Jermaine Kearse as a “real threat,” to use Monos’ phrase, though the 26-year-old could pique the Bills’ interest if the cost is reasonable. Earlier this winter, Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap forecast a deal worth $3.25MM to $3.75MM per year for Kearse (Twitter link). The 6-foot-1, 209-pounder only caught two more balls than Woods last season, but he did it on 13 fewer targets, averaged 14.0 yards per reception to Woods’ 11.7 and added five TDs to Woods’ three.

The Bills entered last offseason in the catbird seat defensively, which isn’t the case 12 months later. The team’s front seven still features an enviable trio of linemen in Marcell Dareus, Jerry Hughes and Kyle Williams, but imposing pass rushers are lacking aside from Hughes and the linebacking corps leaves much to be desired.

Bradham and Preston Brown markedly dropped off from 2014, leaving 10-year veteran Manny Lawson as the Bills’ top linebacker last season. Lawson will once again be a relied-on member of the Bills’ defense in 2016, and the same is probably true in regards to Brown. The Bills will need aid at linebacker from outside the organization, though, and if they go shopping for it in free agency, the Jets’ Demario Davis is a clear fit.

Davis played the first three seasons of his career under Ryan, saying in 2014, “I wouldn’t want to play for any other head coach. He’s a great defensive mind.”

Ryan leaned heavily on Davis, who played 95 percent of the Jets’ defensive snaps in 2013 and 99 percent in 2014. Davis looked lost last season without Ryan, meaning he isn’t hitting the the market with the momentum of a strong contract year. That could be fortuitous timing for the Bills, who lack cap room, need linebackers, and must find players who can comprehend Ryan’s defense.

Ex-Jet Quinton Coples is another free agent linebacker whose best years came under Ryan. The 2012 first-rounder combined for 16.5 sacks in Ryan’s scheme during the first three years of his career and played 1,500-plus snaps at LB in their last two seasons together. Coples, like Davis, fell off last season in Ryan’s absence, so the Jets waived him in November. Two teams placed claims on the 25-year-old. One was the Dolphins, who ultimately got him. The other? Ryan’s Bills. The fact that the Bills lost out on Coples upset Ryan, per Mike Rodak of ESPN.com (Twitter link).

“I wanted him,” Ryan said.

Coples was a non-factor in Miami, which released him earlier this month. He’s now free to sign anywhere, and the Bills are ostensibly a more logical fit for him than any other team. As an edge-rushing linebacker with a knowledge of Ryan’s defense, Coples is an alluring buy-low possibility for cap-strapped Buffalo.

The Bills could also buy high at LB in the form of a first-round pick. In his latest mock draft, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller has the club selecting Ohio State’s Darron Lee in the opening round. Depending on whether they’re still available, any of Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith, Alabama’s Reggie Ragland and Georgia’s Leonard Floyd might be on the Bills’ radar. They could also address their D-line instead and choose from the likes of Robert Nkemdiche (Ole Miss), Sheldon Rankins (Louisville), A’Shawn Robinson (Alabama) and Emmanuel Ogbah (Oklahoma State), among others.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

The Bills have decisions to make this offseason on both of their quarterbacks. One of those decisions, whether to exercise or decline EJ Manuel‘s fifth-year option for 2017, will be easy. They’ll decline it, which means Manuel could be entering his final year with the team that drafted him. Manuel, whom the Bills took 16th overall in 2013, has appeared in 22 games, logged 16 starts and tossed 19 TDs against 15 INTs. He has been relegated to the bench since early 2014 as the backup, first to Kyle Orton and now to Taylor.

Tyrod Taylor (vertical)Whether to take a shot at extending Tyrod Taylor or simply let him play out his contract year is a much more difficult call for the Bills’ front office. Taylor’s pedigree hardly screams “franchise QB” — he’s undersized (6-1, 205 pounds), didn’t have a lights-out college career as a passer, went in the sixth round, and has spent the vast majority of his pro tenure as a backup.

That doesn’t mean Taylor is incapable of serving as an adept starter for the long haul, but the Bills can’t afford to make another mistake under center by once again investing heavily in someone who isn’t the answer. They got into trouble a few years ago when they prematurely extended Ryan Fitzpatrick based on a small sample size of encouraging play, and that was wedged between two failed first-round picks (J.P. Losman and Manuel). With that in mind, they’re unlikely to place their hand on the hot stove again, so to speak.

Although it’ll cost the Bills more if they take a better-safe-than-sorry approach and Taylor builds on last season, that would be a good problem for a franchise that has been hopeless at QB since the mid-1990s.

While the Bills aren’t yet sure of what they have in Taylor, they should know by now that cornerback Stephon Gilmore is worth a mega-extension. The 2012 first-rounder is going into his final season under team control and is coming off a year in which he tied a career high with three interceptions, ranked as a top-10 corner by PFF’s standards, and formed a top-notch CB twosome with rookie Ronald Darby.

Gilmore is scheduled to rake in over $11MM in 2016, his fifth-year option season. If he were to ask for that long term, it would be a lofty request from a player who has missed 11 games over the last three years. Then again, the Eagles’ Byron Maxwell has one of the richest contracts in the league for a corner – fourth in total value ($63MM), fifth in yearly worth ($10.5MM) and third in guarantees ($25MM) – and he got it last winter despite appearing in just 47 games in four seasons. At the time, Maxwell was a 27-year-old who had played second fiddle to Richard Sherman in Seattle. Conversely, Gilmore – who will turn 26 in September – has been the alpha dog in pass defenses that have mostly stifled enemy QBs (three straight top-10 finishes in both yards per attempt against and passer rating allowed). Add all of that up, and Gilmore has a case for Maxwell money – especially with the cap having risen $12MM during the last year.

Overall Outlook:

The Bills have little cap room to work with and obvious problems to address on both sides of the ball, so Whaley will have to pull a magic trick of sorts in order to build a playoff-caliber roster this offseason. Best-case scenario for Buffalo: Whaley will somehow re-sign both Glenn and Incognito, hit home runs with value pickups in free agency, and add multiple draft prospects who pay immediate dividends.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

1 comment Buffalo Bills Offseason Outlook PFR Originals

PFR Originals: 2/14/16 – 2/21/16

By | at February 21, 2016 2:44 pm

The original analysis and content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

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