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2015 Fifth-Year Option Decisions

May 2nd, 2014 at 11:00pm CST by Luke Adams

The deadline has passed for teams to officially exercise their 2015 options on players who are in the final year of their rookie contracts, so it’s time to round up the results of those decisions. These fifth-year options could only be exercised on first-round picks, and the salaries were determined by where players were drafted and what position they play.

If a player had his option exercised, his rookie contract will be extended by one year and he’ll be eligible for free agency after the 2015 season. If a player’s option was declined, he’ll be eligible for free agency after the 2014 season. We explained the intricacies of the fifth-year option in a PFR Glossary post last month, so you can read up on the specific details there.

These 2015 option salaries are guaranteed for injury only up until the first day of the 2015 league year, at which point they become fully guaranteed. As such, many teams will exercise the options for now, even if they’re not 100% sure they’ll keep the player, since there isn’t a ton of risk in picking up the option and maintaining as much roster flexibility as possible. Teams and players can also continue to negotiate long-term contracts from this point on.

In the case of some players listed below, teams didn’t officially announce their decisions, which we’ll interpret to mean the clubs didn’t exercise those options — no formal action was required if a club simply chose not to pick up the option.

Here are this season’s fifth-year option decisions:

  1. Cam Newton (QB, Panthers), $14.666MM: Exercised
  2. Von Miller (LB, Broncos), $9.754MM: Exercised
  3. Marcell Dareus (DE, Bills), $8.06MM: Exercised
  4. A.J. Green (WR, Bengals), $10.176MM: Exercised
  5. Patrick Peterson (CB, Cardinals), $10.081MM: Exercised
  6. Julio Jones (WR, Falcons), $10.176MM: Exercised
  7. Aldon Smith (LB, 49ers), $9.754MM: Exercised
  8. Jake Locker (QB, Titans), $14.666MM: Declined
  9. Tyron Smith (OL, Cowboys), $10.039MM: Exercised
  10. Blaine Gabbert (QB, 49ers), $14.666MM: Declined
  11. J.J. Watt (DE, Texans), $6.969MM: Exercised
  12. Christian Ponder (QB, Vikings), $9.686MM: Declined
  13. Nick Fairley (DT, Lions), $5.477MM: Declined
  14. Robert Quinn (DE, Rams), $6.969MM: Exercised
  15. Mike Pouncey (OL, Dolphins), $7.438MM: Exercised
  16. Ryan Kerrigan (LB, Redskins), $7.038MM: Excerised
  17. Nate Solder (OL, Patriots), $7.438MM: Exercised
  18. Corey Liuget (DE, Chargers), $6.969MM: Exercised
  19. Prince Amukamara (CB, Giants), $6.898MM: Exercised
  20. Adrian Clayborn (DE, Buccaneers), $6.969MM: Declined
  21. Phil Taylor (DT, Browns), $5.477MM: Exercised
  22. Anthony Castonzo (OL, Colts), $7.438MM: Exercised
  23. Danny Watkins (OL, FA): Not applicable due to release
  24. Cameron Jordan (DE, Saints), $6.969MM: Exercised
  25. James Carpenter (OL, Seahawks), $7.438MM: Declined
  26. Jonathan Baldwin (WR, 49ers), $6.776MM: Not applicable due to restructure
  27. Jimmy Smith (CB, Ravens), $6.898MM: Exercised
  28. Mark Ingram (RB, Saints), $5.211MM: Declined
  29. Gabe Carimi (OL, Falcons): Not applicable due to release
  30. Muhammad Wilkerson (DE, Jets), $6.969MM: Exercised
  31. Cameron Heyward (DE, Steelers), $6.969MM: Exercised
  32. Derek Sherrod (OL, Packers), $7.438MM: Declined

Restricted Free Agency

May 2nd, 2014 at 8:15am CST by Luke Adams

Two players who received restricted free agent tenders this season remain unsigned, as Doug Baldwin of the Seahawks and Byron Bell of the Panthers have yet to accept the offers from their respective clubs. Since today is the deadline for either player to sign an offer sheet with a rival club, it’s worth taking a closer look at exactly what restricted free agency entails, and how it works.

Restricted free agency applies to players who have exactly three accrued seasons, meaning they’ve been on a full pay scale for at least six regular-season games in three years in the NFL. Players with fewer than three accrued seasons and no contract are exclusive rights free agents, while players with four or more accrued seasons are eligible for unrestricted free agency. For draftees, the default rookie contract runs for four years, meaning those players will generally be unrestricted free agents when their original deals expire.

As such, restricted free agents are generally players who aren’t coming off traditional rookie contracts. Baldwin, Bell, Broncos cornerback Tony Carter, and Lions running back Joique Bell are among the notable players who were restricted free agents this offseason, and all four guys went undrafted out of college.

As the name suggests, restricted free agency limits players from negotiating freely with all potential suitors. Unsigned players don’t become restricted free agents by default after their third accrued season — the player’s previous club must extend the player a qualifying offer, also known as a restricted free agent tender, to ensure that the player doesn’t become unrestricted. The amount of that offer varies depending on how much the team is willing to pay for one year of the player’s service, and how much the player made in the previous season. For instance, in 2014, the RFA tender amounts were the following amounts, or 110% of the player’s previous salary, whichever is greater:

  • $3.113MM – First round tender
  • $2.187MM – Second round tender
  • $1.431MM – Original round tender
  • $1.2MM – Right of first refusal only

All four tender amounts give the player’s previous club the right to match any offers for the player, so the difference in the offers – besides the salary – is related to the compensation the team would receive if the player signed with another team. For example, Baldwin received a second-round tender worth $2.187MM from the Seahawks. That means that if the veteran receiver signed an offer sheet with another team, Seattle would receive a second-round pick from that club.

Given the compensatory picks tied to those top two tenders, we typically see teams pursue RFAs who received the lower tenders. For example, Andrew Hawkins reportedly received a $1.431MM tender from the Bengals prior to free agency. Had Hawkins been, for instance, a fifth-round pick, the Browns would have had to give up a fifth-rounder of their own when they poached the wideout from their division rival. Because Hawkins was an undrafted free agent though, the Bengals maintained the right of first refusal, but didn’t receive a compensatory pick when they decided not to match the offer.

After a player signs an offer sheet, his previous team has five days to decide whether or not to match that offer, which is why leave sheets must be signed at least five days before the draft to ensure that draft pick compensation gets resolved in time. If Baldwin or Bell were to sign an offer sheet today, the Seahawks or Panthers could pick up an extra second-round pick next week by declining to match that offer. Typically, that draft-pick cost is too steep for potential suitors, so it’s more likely we’ll see Baldwin and Bell simply accept their one-year tenders, earn $2.187MM salaries in 2014, and be eligible to hit the unrestricted market in 2015.

The rules of restricted free agency apply to players as long as that qualifying offer remains in play, but teams can withdraw the QO at any time, making the player an unrestricted free agent. Additionally, restricted free agents are eligible for the franchise tag, which creates a sort of heightened version of restricted free agency — salaries are larger for franchise players, and the price tag for rival clubs to sign away a franchise player is two first-round draft picks, which is why we haven’t seen any action on Jimmy Graham this offseason.

As for exclusive rights free agency, which I mentioned earlier, it’s a more strict form of restricted free agency as well, one that essentially removes any “free agency” from a player’s decision. It applies to players with less than three accrued seasons. If a player receives an exclusive rights free agent tender from his club – which is almost always worth the minimum salary – he must either accept the offer or not play in the NFL. He’s not eligible to negotiate with any other teams.

Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from OverTheCap.com was used in the creation of this post.

Prospect Profile: Calvin Pryor

April 30th, 2014 at 8:26pm CST by Rob DiRe

If Alabama’s Ha Ha Clinton Dix is not the top safety in this draft, then Louisville’s Calvin Pryor is. While nominally these two players inhabit the same position on the field, the two free safeties have very different styles of play. While we already examined the playmaking ability in the center field that Dix could bring to the table, Pryor counters with the big-hitting, in-your-face style of play of safeties past.Calvin Pryor

Pryor’s biggest strength on the football field is violence. He struck fear in the hearts of any receiver running a crossing route in front of him. His highlight clips on YouTube are among the most fun watches of any prospect, filled with big plays that look as if they were scripted to elicit groans from all who watch. He throws his body into every play with full force and no hesitation. His dedication to those highlight hits makes him a weapon as a run defender. For an insight into his physical dominance, he had a stretch in which he knocked an opponent out of a game in three consecutive games, according to NFL.com.

While most fans will probably remember him for his ability to put ball carriers on the ground, Pryor never proved to be a weakness covering the middle of the field. It was rare to find him in man coverage, but he was able to cover deep in the middle of the field, exhibiting good range. His athleticism is not dissimilar to that of Clinton-Dix, as Pryor weighed in at 207 pounds and posted an identical time of 4.58 in the 40-yard dash. Pryor did measure in at 5’11”, a full two inches shorter than Clinton-Dix.

Pryor’s aggressiveness can be his greatest weakness on tape, as expected for a player always going for the big hit. He has the tendency to overrun plays, leaving himself susceptible to the cutback. He might take some bad angles, and a big hitter always risk the chance of missing on a tackle, especially as he meets bigger and stronger runners in the NFL.

Still, for a safety not known as a ballhawk, Pryor managed to get his hands on seven passes in his three years at Louisville, with a few highlight catches among those. He also forced nine devastating fumbles for his career, solidifying himself as one of the biggest hitters in college football regardless of position. Pryor was named Second Team All-Big East as a sophomore, and after a conference change, achieved First Team All-ACC as a junior before declaring for the NFL Draft. Like his counterpart from Alabama, Pryor was suspended for violating a team rule, forcing him to miss a game during his final collegiate season.

Early in the draft process, a common thought was that Pryor could be too physical for the NFL game. Pundits worried that he was almost a guarantee for fines and suspensions, a potential magnet for defenseless receiver calls. For the most part, that thinking corrected itself, and coincided with Pryor’s rise up draft boards. While most still have him as the second best safety in this class, he has closed the gap between himself and Clinton-Dix. Both ESPN’s Mel Kiper, Jr. and Todd McShay have Pryor falling to the Cowboys (No. 16) (subscription required), while two out of the four mock drafts posted by CBS Sports have him up at No. 13, to the Rams. The Louisville hammer also has some traction among the Bears (No. 14) and Ravens (No.17).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Prospect Profile: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix

April 30th, 2014 at 7:02pm CST by Rob DiRe

Earl Thomas signed a huge extension on Monday, making him the highest paid safety in the NFL. The reason Thomas got that money is due to the rarity of true to form center field type safety in today’s game. The versatility that a speedy defensive back that can play in the middle of the defense, providing coverage skills as well as strength bringing down the ball carrier makes a defensive coordinator’s job much easier. If not easier, then definitely more fun.Ha Ha Clinton-Dix

There is only one safety in the mold of Thomas projected to be picked in the first round of the upcoming NFL Draft, and that is Alabama’s Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. Dix played three seasons with the Crimson Tide, and was a part of two national championship teams. His five interceptions as a sophomore led a highly regarded Alabama defense. Clinton-Dix was suspended for two games during the 2013 season, due to “unspecified team rules violations.” Despite missing two games, he was named First Team All-SEC after his junior season, and was a Consensus All-American safety.

Clinton-Dix measured out well at the NFL combine, standing tall at 6’1″ and 208 pounds. He ran a respectable 4.58 40-yard dash. It does not put him in the category of elite athletes, but it is a combination of size and speed that is desirable in a prospect. Under Nick Saban, he learned how to play the position efficiently. According to NFL.com, he is quick to read and react to plays, and makes up for his average speed by taking great angles to the football, where he becomes a nightmare due to his good ball skills and ability to turn defense into offense.

Like many Saban coached defensive backs, Clinton-Dix shined in college coming up to stop the run. Not one to shy from contact, he gets into the alley and is a strong open field tackler. While he does not have the top speed to run with the fastest receivers in the NFL, nor the bulk to be considered a true in the box safety, he does provide versatility in his ability to switch from a run stopper to a pass defender from play to play.

Safety is a tough position to gauge in regards to this draft. Clinton-Dix is not the clear cut top option, as Louisville’s Calvin Pryor has been making headway. The two are very different players as well, as Clinton-Dix has the reputation for staying in the middle of the field and making plays on the ball, whereas Pryor is known as the big hitter. Style will play a huge role in which player comes off the board first.

Clinton-Dix starts to gain a lot of traction among mock drafts starting with the Lions (No. 10). If the Lions pass on him, he begins to make a lot of sense for the Rams (No. 13) and the Bears (No. 14). ESPN’s Mel Kiper, Jr. agrees that the Rams could jump on him, and Todd McShay has him landing in St. Louis as well (subscription required). The Vikings (No. 8) seem like the highest he could possibly go, and if the Steelers (No. 15) do pass, the Cowboys (No. 16), Ravens (No. 17), and Jets (No. 18) all have significant need at safety.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Outstanding Fifth-Year Option Decisions

April 30th, 2014 at 10:59am CST by Luke Adams

As our fifth-year option tracker shows, plenty of teams have been proactive about making their decisions on 2015 options for 2011 first-rounders well in advance of this year’s May 3 deadline. However, there are still a number of players requiring resolution on their contract situations before this weekend.

Here are the 16 players whose fifth-year options have been formally exercised so far:

While no official announcement has necessarily been made, reports from beat writers – or from general managers themselves – have strongly suggested these four players will not have their options picked up:

Meanwhile, the following two players are no longer even on their rookie contracts, meaning the fifth-year option doesn’t apply to them:

That leaves us with 10 players who we’re still waiting on for official resolution. Let’s dive in and examine them one by one….

  • Von Miller (LB, Broncos), $9.754MM: There’s no drama about Denver’s decision on Miller. His option will be exercised — it’s simply a matter of when, not if.
  • Aldon Smith (LB, 49ers), $9.754MM: Smith represents perhaps the most intriguing case of any of 2011’s first-rounders. On the field, he’s developed into one of the NFL’s best edge defenders, but the 24-year-old has had a number of off-field issues and incidents. We heard earlier in the month, that the Niners were likely to decline Smith’s fifth-year option to send a message, but it doesn’t appear the team has officially made its decision yet.
  • Blaine Gabbert (QB, 49ers), $14.666MM: The lack of reports so far on Gabbert’s option may simply be a result of the lack of a intrigue in this decision. The 49ers won’t be exercising this option.
  • Christian Ponder (QB, Vikings), $9.686MM: While Ponder appears likely to enter the 2014 season as a backup, Minnesota’s decision isn’t quite as easy as San Francisco’s on Gabbert. I don’t expect the Vikings to exercise the option, but Matt Vensel of the Star Tribune and cap expert Joel Corry did a good job last week of explaining why the decision isn’t cut-and-dried.
  • Ryan Kerrigan (LB, Redskins), $7.038MM: Kerrigan has been one of Washington’s most productive defenders over the last couple years, and recent comments by GM Bruce Allen seemed to signal this option would be exercised.
  • Prince Amukamara (CB, Giants), $6.898MM: As of last Tuesday, the Giants were reportedly still undecided on this decision, which could go either way. For what it’s worth, Amukamara indicated that he may feel somewhat slighted if the club turns down his option.
  • Phil Taylor (DT, Browns), $5.477MM: Taylor, who said last week he’d like the Browns to exercise his option, has been solid during his three NFL seasons, but is more of a situational player than an every-down difference-maker. Cleveland has some flexibility and make figure that rolling the dice on Taylor’s relatively inexpensive option is worth the risk, but this is another decision that remains up in the air.
  • James Carpenter (OL, Seahawks), $7.438MM: A report from earlier this week suggested the Seahawks are leaning toward declining Carpenter’s option.
  • Jonathan Baldwin (WR, 49ers), $6.776MM: Baldwin’s rookie contract was already reworked to reduce his salary, so it’s very unlikely that San Francisco will see this option as a worthy investment.
  • Derek Sherrod (OL, Packers), $7.438MM: Plagued by injuries so far in his NFL career, Sherrod hasn’t seen significant action for the Packers, and the team won’t be inclined to keep him under control at such a high salary.

Prospect Profile Series

April 30th, 2014 at 8:38am CST by Luke Adams

Leading up to the 2014 draft, Pro Football Rumors is taking a closer look at some of the top prospects in this year’s draft class in Prospect Profile pieces. We’re evaluating a number of players’ stocks, breaking down their pros and cons, and forecasting where they may land in next week’s draft.

We’ve got another handful of Prospect Profile posts on the way, but for now, you can catch up on the ones we’ve published so far. This list will continue to be updated up until draft night, and can be found at any time on the right-hand sidebar under “PFR Features.”

Poll: NFL Considering Developmental League

April 27th, 2014 at 8:14pm CST by Peter Sowards

In August 2007, the NFL ceased operation of NFL Europa, issuing a press release that “The Time is right to re-focus the NFL’s strategy on initiatives with global impact, including worldwide media coverage of our sport and the staging of live regular-season NFL games.”

And thus ended the NFL’s developmental league, in place since 1991 save for a two-year hiatus from 1993-94.

However, the league’s new director of football operations, Troy Vincent, told the Associated Press today that he sees the installation of a developmental league as a way to preserve and grow the game.

“We need to keep the pipeline of talent flowing, and that means for all areas of our game: players, coaches, scouts, game officials,” Vincent said. “I am responsible to look at whatever the competition committee looks at, and that includes a developmental league. 

“For all this football talent around, we have to create another platform for developing it. Maybe it’s an academy — at would it look like? Maybe it’s a spring league; we’ll look to see if there is an appetite for it.” 

Vincent also mentioned adding an eighth official to the referee crew for games and coaches using tablets on the sidelines.

Vote in the poll below and feel free to add your opinion in the comments section.

Prospect Profile: Khalil Mack

April 27th, 2014 at 4:23pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The University at Buffalo has produced NFL players before, but (with all due respect to James Starks and Trevor Scott) Khalil Mack is set to enter the league as the most acclaimed Bull in school history, with his talent and seemingly endless potential likely making him a top-five selection in next month’s draft.NCAA Football: Buffalo at Baylor

Graded as just a two-star recruit coming out of high school, Mack has always played with something of a chip on his shoulder. In the 2009 version of EA Sports’ NCAA Football, he was given an overall rating of only 46 (out of possible 99), making him one of the worst players in the game. Mack used this slight as motivation, choosing 46 as his jersey number throughout his dominating college years.

And dominate he did. In 2013, Mack’s second straight season as a Butkus Award finalist, he registered 100 tackles, 10.5 sacks, three interceptions, and five forced fumbles. The edge rusher was named the Mid-American Conference’s Defensive Player of the Year, and a second-team All-American. He set a NCAA record with 16 career forced fumbles, and finished tied for first in career tackles for loss (75).

Explosiveness is the key to Mack’s game — his vertical jump is an astounding 40 inches, and his first-step quickness from the outside linebacker position is unparallelled in this draft. He rarely gets pancaked by opposing offensive lineman, and any OL trying to block Mack one-on-one, especially at the second level, will face severe difficulty. The 23-year-old is a master of many pass-rushing maneuvers, but the outside move is his specialty, as his almost flawless technique allows him to leave offensive tackles off-balance. Additionally, Mack has the speed, exhibited by a 4.65 40-yard-dash, to drop in pass coverage and, with a bit more experience, could be a nice weapon against physical tight ends running seam routes between the hash marks.

The primary concern for Mack, like most prospects from small schools, is the level of competition he faced. The MAC is certainly not the SEC, and it is not even comparable to the Pac-12 or the Big 12. However, Mack, in something of a coming-out party, did perform extraordinary well against Big 10 powerhouse Ohio State, showing that he can hang with elevated competition. Analysts have also noted that Mack has the tendency to play with reckless abandon at times instead of relying on his sound technique, indicating that harnessing his skill will be a critical test at the next level.

Mack, at 6’3″ and 251 pounds, could fit a multitude of defensive schemes — he probably makes the most sense as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but could also play OLB in a 4-3, or even, in a pinch, as a 4-3 defensive end. He is a dark horse candidate to go No. 1 overall to the Texans, as some believe that he is a better fit than Jadeveon Clowney for Houston’s 3-4 defense. The Jaguars, owners of the third pick, are looking for a pass rusher to stabilize their front seven, and teams like the Raiders, Falcons, Vikings, and Bills could all be interested in the dynamic edge player. Along with Clowney, Sammy Watkins, and Greg Robinson, Mack is considered one of the elite players in next month’s draft, and it would be surprising to see him fall out of the top five selections.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

First-Round QBs: What To Do?

April 27th, 2014 at 12:56pm CST by Rory Parks

It is widely-agreed that quarterback is the most important position in any sport. That reality has inevitably led, of course, to NFL teams’ consistent overrating of college QBs in the hopes that they might strike gold, stabilize their fortunes, and perhaps even create a dynasty. With very rare exceptions, a team does not win the Super Bowl without a top-flight quarterback, or at least a quarterback who has the ability to perform at an elite level for a stretch of time.

In recent years, such overvaluing of the quarterback position has combined with a growing impatience to create the phoenix of an instant winner from the ashes of a losing club. Alan Robinson of the Pittsburgh Star-Tribune wrote an excellent piece detailing this phenomenon, and he cites ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper, Jr., who examines how the approach to young QBs has changed dramatically over the course of the past few decades. As Kiper observes, “(In the 1970s), it was a five-year process. You never evaluated a rookie or second-year quarterback and said he was a bust or this or that…All the quarterbacks needed time: Troy Aikman, John Elway. These guys (now) are kicked to the curb early.”

It stands to reason, of course, that draft strategies and evaluation techniques would change over such a prolonged period of time, particularly as the league itself has evolved and has become largely predicated on the passing game. However, many pundits point to the 2008 draft as the clear turning point. Matt Ryan of the Falcons and Joe Flacco of the Ravens, both taken in the first round of the 2008 draft, were pressed into duty for teams that had finished with a losing record the year prior and helped guide their clubs to the playoff in their rookie campaigns. Flacco, of course, led the Ravens to a Super Bowl championship in 2012 on the heels of a historically-great playoff run, and while Ryan has not had the same playoff success, his statistics have consistently put him near the top of the league.

The early returns of Flacco and Ryan have perhaps forced other teams to ask the simple question “Why not us?” That question, in turn, might have created even more excessive valuation of college quarterbacks, and even more willingness to discard those quarterbacks when they do not enjoy instant success. Even as some attempt to return to the more traditional approach of patience–Texans owner Bob McNair has recently stated that his club will not repeat the mistake it made by thrusting David Carr into the starting role in 2002, and the Jaguars have apparently changed their organizational philosophy after the recent Blaine Gabbert debacle–others will overlook the red flags of quarterbacks like Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, and Blake Bortles and hang their fortunes on the right arms of those young men.

As we noted just an hour ago, the 2013 draft was an anomaly in that only one quarterback was taken in the first round. 2014 figures to see at least three quarterbacks hear their names called on the first day of the draft, if not four or five. And yet, as Robinson writes, none of those players are “sure things” like Andrew Luck in 2012 or Peyton Manning in 1998. In fact, their elite skills are diminished or even trumped by their drawbacks. If they played a different position, their drawbacks might drop them several rounds at least. As it is, there will be no shortage of teams willing to roll the dice.

If they don’t, the repercussions, both from an on-field and job-security standpoint, could be insurmountable. As Robinson points out, “all it takes is one general manager who thinks, ‘If we pass now on Manziel, and he turns out to be the next Drew Brees, we’ll never forgive ourselves.’”

Some GMs will, of course, be turned away by the red flags. Some will convince themselves (and perhaps rightly so) that a Day 2 or Day 3 QB has just as much to offer as the big names of this year’s class, and they will point to the approaches that the Bengals took to land Andy Dalton and the 49ers took to grab Colin Kaepernick. Indeed, they could take a top non-QB in the first round and still get a quality signal-caller in the later rounds.

But there will be those unwilling to pass. It could be that their talent evaluators believe a player like Manziel is simply too good to pass up, or maybe some measure of desperation and impatience will creep into the calculus. In any event, when May 8 rolls round, and when the fans of a team see a quarterback put on that team’s jersey, those fans may well be overcome with equal parts excitement and apprehension. And there will be good reason for both.

Prospect Profile: Teddy Bridgewater

April 26th, 2014 at 3:09pm CST by Rob DiRe

The quarterback position is the number one priority for a handful of teams drafting in the top ten. The Texans, Jaguars, Browns, Raiders, Buccaneers, and Vikings could all use huge upgrades at the position, and all will most likely have the opportunity to select one of the top three or four quarterback prospects.

Even though there is such a tremendous need at the top of the draft, that does not guarantee that those quarterbacks will be coming off the board early. Part of that is the lack of consensus among the top quarterbacks. Zach Links already looked at the current favorite to be the top quarterback taken in UCF’s Blake Bortles, but the original star of this quarterback class was Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater. (For what it’s worth, Johnny Manziel also spent some time on the top of those big boards.)

Bridgewater stands tall enough between 6’2″ and 6’3″ depending on who you ask, but his slight frame leaves much to be desired. He certainly lacks the massive size of Bortles, but makes up for it with his own strengths. Bridgewater was a three year starter at Louisville before leaving after his junior season. Had he been allowed to leave after his sophomore season, he would have likely been the first quarterback off the board, ahead of both E.J. Manuel and Geno Smith. Thought of as “NFL ready” due to his quick release, poise in the pocket, and ability to quickly scan and read defenses, there were moments in time when it was a foregone conclusion that Bridgewater and Jadeveon Clowney would be drafted first and second overall, in some order.

Of course, throughout the draft process Bridgewater’s stock has dropped off. Bortles of course has passed him due to his prototypical size, and Manziel shot out of a rocket and has become such a love him or hate him prospect, it seems every team has either put him at the top of their wish list or taken him off their board altogether. Bridgewater struggled with accuracy and mechanics at his pro day, establishing red flags that made scouts and pundits question why they thought he was so “NFL ready” to begin with.

His play on the field is still impressive. He completed almost 69% of his passes as a sophomore, and improved that number to 71% as a junior. In those last two years, he posted 28 and 31 touchdowns against 7 and 4 interceptions, respectively. Bridgewater was often calm under pressure, and handled blitzes and pass rushers effectively and efficiently.

Draft expert Mike Mayock of NFL.com has downgraded Bridgewater out of his first-round projection.

“I’ve never seen a top-level quarterback in the last 10 years have a bad pro day, until Teddy Bridgewater. He had no accuracy, the ball came out funny, the arm strength wasn’t there, and it made me question everything I saw on tape because this was live. I went back and watched a bunch more tape and compared him to the rest of the guys in the draft,” said Mayock. “And like it or not, I’ve come to a conclusion — if I was a GM in the NFL, I would not take him in the first round of the draft.”

Not everyone has given up on Bridgewater completely. While he has clearly fallen behind Bortles as an option for the Texans (No. 1), Jaguars (No. 3), and Browns (No. 4), mock drafts still put him as high as the Buccaneers (No. 7) and Vikings (No. 8). Even for those who see him falling fast, there has been a narrative that see the Browns selecting one of the elite defensive players or a receiver such as Sammy Watkins with their first pick, and catching Bridgewater or possibly Derek Carr with the pick they received in the Trent Richardson deal with the Colts (No. 26).

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