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Trade Candidate: Brandon Flowers

June 2nd, 2014 at 10:42pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Days before last month’s draft, reports surfaced indicating that Chiefs cornerback Brandon Flowers was a trade possibility as Kansas City looked to acquire more picks. Such a deal never occurred, but rumors persist that Flowers is a poor fit for Chiefs defensive coordinator Bob Sutton’s scheme. Flowers wasn’t present for last week’s OTAs, leading many to wonder if he was angling for clarification regarding his role and future with the team.NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles

A trade of Flowers would have to clear several hurdles, first of which would be his play in 2013. Though Flowers, who accrued one interception and 65 tackles in 13 games last season, was selected as a Pro Bowler, advanced metrics show he was anything but — his -5.9 Pro Football Focus grade (subscription required) ranked him as just the 87th-best CB in the league last year. However, PFF rated Flowers as a top-10 corner in both 2011 and 2012, so perhaps the scheme concerns are valid (2013 was Sutton’s first year in Kansas City).

The Chiefs, having gone 11-5 in 2013, are a team in win-now mode, so ridding themselves of a talented player like Flowers might not be the most ideal route. Sans Flowers, Kansas City would be left with Sean Smith and Marcus Cooper as starters, with rookie Phillip Gaines manning the slot — not exactly the most exciting trifecta. Another season learning Sutton’s defense could only help, and with more experience in the system, Flowers might flourish and begin to exhibit his prowess once again.

The final, and most pressing, issue regarding a trade of Flowers is his contract, which is set to pay him base salaries totaling $18MM over the next three seasons. He is also due $4MM in roster bonuses and $500K in workout bonuses during that span. It could be tough to find a team willing to assume that responsibility, especially given Flowers’ lackluster play last year. Additionally, Flowers hasn’t been the most durable player over his career (having played the entire 16-game slate only once, in 2011), so a team probably wouldn’t feel comfortable paying for a player who can’t stay on the field.

For the Chiefs, a trade of Flowers could help alleviate their salary cap situation. Currently sitting at about $3.5MM under the cap, Kansas City could use the money saved by trading Flowers on extensions for quarterback Alex Smith or linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. While Flowers has a pretty good track record, and is still young at 28, the value of freeing up cap room cannot be overstated. While cornerback is certainly a premier position in today’s passing league, the ability to retain Smith is probably more enticing in Kansas City.

Most teams could use another talented corner on their roster, but Flowers’ salary limits his potential destinations. The Jets have the cap room to bring in Flowers, but he probably wouldn’t fit in Rex Ryan’s scheme. Two teams that pop out as fits are the Buccaneers and the Titans, each of whom lost an excellent corner during the offseason (Darrelle Revis and Alterraun Verner, respectively). Both franchises have the financial wherewithal to make such a move, and Flowers would be a welcome addition to either team’s defensive backfield.

Having said that, I still think a trade is unlikely. The salary obligations and Flowers’ subpar 2013 season make him a risky investment. If a trade were to occur, I wouldn’t expect Kansas City to receive more than a fifth-round pick, at the very best.

Data from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Andy Dalton

June 1st, 2014 at 4:31pm CST by Dallas Robinson

When the Bengals passed on Teddy Bridgewater with the No. 24 pick in last month’s draft, and subsequently waited until the fifth round before drafting a signal-caller (Alabama’s A.J. McCarron), they seemed to send a strong message: Andy Dalton is Cincinnati’s quarterback for the foreseeable future.NFL: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Dalton, selected in the second round of the 2011 draft, has achieved immediate success in the Queen City, leading the Bengals to a 30-18 record and three playoff appearances (0-3 record) during his first three seasons in the league, averaging nearly 3,800 yards passing, 27 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in that span. Advanced metrics rate Dalton as average — Football Outsiders ranked Dalton as the 17th-best QB by DYAR in 2014, while Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded him as 16th-best. The PFF rating, however, illustrates Dalton’s maddening inconsistency — in 2014, he finished three weeks with a +5.0 or better grade, while five other weeks saw him earn a -3.0 or worse mark.

The Bengals, for their part, have a recent history of being willing to pay for performance, as evidenced by extensions for Andrew Whitworth, Carlos Dunlap, and Leon Hall. In March, team owner Mike Brown spoke about Dalton’s situation, saying “If it turns out it can’t be made to work we will do something elsewhere. I don’t think we plan to go another year the way we did this year.” Whether that means Cincinnati would be willing to slap the franchise tag on Dalton in 2015 is unclear, but Brown is well aware that the free agent market for quarterbacks is more often than not barren, meaning Dalton is the likely the team’s best, and perhaps only, answer at the position.

Cincinnati also has other premier players whom they would like to like to retain — receiver A.J. Green, whose 2015 option was exercised, and linebacker Vontaze Burfict, with whom the Bengals are discussing an extension. While the team currently has over $24MM in cap space, new contracts for Green, Burfict, and Dalton could stretch the Bengals’ budget.

In looking for a precedent, the Bengals could look at recent extensions given to fellow quarterbacks Tony Romo and Jay Cutler. Romo signed a seven-year, $108MM deal with the Cowboys in March 2013, which contained $55MM guaranteed. While Romo has outperformed Dalton since the latter entered the league in 2011, he is eight years older than the Bengals QB. Cutler agreed to a seven-year, $126.7MM contract in January 2014, with $54MM in guarantees. Cutler and Dalton have comparable statistics, though Dalton has been healthier and is five years younger.

More potential quarterback extensions are seemingly on the horizon, each of which could affect Dalton’s value. Alex Smith is reportedly asking for $18MM per season, Colin Kaepernick could aim for a $20MM AAV, and a Cam Newton contract could surpass each of those potential deals.

With the Bengals taking a pass on adding legitimate competition for Dalton, an extension seems to be the likeliest of outcomes. While the Bengals probably aren’t willing to give Dalton a $20MM AAV, I could see them examining Dalton’s regular-season success, the randomness of playoff losses, and the lack of enticing alternatives, and handing Dalton a contract in line with what Cutler received: $18-19MM per season, with $50-60MM in guarantees. Such a deal, as opposed to a 2015 franchise tag, would probably give the Bengals the room to negotiate contracts for Green and Burfict, keeping intact a core that could keep Cincinnati competitive for years to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 5/25/14 – 6/1/14

June 1st, 2014 at 2:00pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Here’s the original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • Our Extension Candidate series rolled along, as Rory Parks examined Buccaneers DT Gerald McCoy (link) and Zach Links looked at both Falcons WR Roddy White (link) and Chiefs QB Alex Smith (link). You can find all the Extension Candidate reports here.
  • In last week’s polls, Ben Levine asked about likely trade candidates (link) and Peter Sowards wondered who will win the backup quarterback job with the Bears (link).
  • David Kipke wrote about the 49ers’ offensive line, and the tough decisions they may to make on players like Alex Boone and Mike Iupati.
  • Luke Adams scrutinized the importance of June 1 in the NFL, and why we could see more free agent signings in the coming weeks.
  • Luke also explored the largest 2014 cap hits, both on offense and on defense/special teams.
  • Rory delved into which free agents could be most impacted by the impending June 1 deadline.

Notable Free Agents Impacted By June 1st Date

June 1st, 2014 at 11:44am CST by Rory Parks

A number of writers–including ourselves–have published lists of the best free agents available within the past couple of months. However, now that June 1 is finally here, we can expect a number of names to come off of those lists. Our Luke Adams described the importance of June 1 as it pertains to free agency several days ago, but to summarize just one pertinent point from his piece, any free agents signed after June 1 will not impact the signing team’s compensatory pick formula.

As such, there is often a “mini-surge” of free agents signed after June 1, as teams are attaching more and more value to their compensatory picks. However, the important thing to keep in mind is that signing players whose contracts did not expire naturally–in other words, players who were released–does not impact the compensatory pick formula anyway. Those players, then, will not necessarily be impacted by the June 1 date.

As the offseason progresses and as players get injured and coaches reevaluate their rosters, released players like Santonio Holmes, Asante Samuel, James Harrison, Richie Incognito, and Michael Bush may find an opportunity. But teams are not going to pay any more attention to them simply because June 1 has arrived. With that said, here are a few of the top free agents whose contracts expired naturally and who will therefore receive more interest simply because of today’s date:

  1. Jermichael Finley: Finley recently received full medical clearance to play and had a free agent visit lined up with a “mystery team” on Friday. Given his athletic abilities and the fact that he is in the prime of his career, Finley may find work sooner rather than later despite his injury history. The Patriots make a good deal of sense, considering how thin they are at tight end behind Rob Gronkowski, who of course has major health concerns of his own. Some have speculated that New England is, in fact, the aforementioned “mystery team.”
  2. Kevin Williams: the long-time Viking still offers value as a run-stopper in the interior of a defensive line, and he visited the Giants and Seahawks this offseason, but he has stated he will consider retirement if he does not get an offer he likes.
  3. Eric Winston: Winston played very well for the Texans for a number of years, but he was released by the team in 2012, and he was cut by the Chiefs in 2013 after just one season in Kansas City. He did not impress after signing a one-year deal with the Cardinals last season, but he may still find a team that will give him a chance to start. The Ravens have been mentioned as a natural fit because of their lack of experience at right tackle and Winston’s familiarity with Baltimore’s new offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak.
  4. Terrell Thomas: Thomas played fairly well in 2013 after back-to-back torn ACLs, and he recently visited with the Lions and Patriots. Teams looking for a third corner could do much worse. Other veteran cornerbacks who teams might also look to include Drayton Florence and Quentin Jammer.
  5. Brett Keisel: Kesiel’s age (he will turn 36 in September) and recent struggles with injuries limit his market, but he did post four sacks and fair PFF grades last season. He could certainly offer veteran leadership and some pass rush capabilities to someone’s defensive line. Although Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin did not rule out a reunion with Keisel, it is unclear if other members of the Steelers brass are interested in Keisel’s return.

 

Poll: Bears Backup Quarterback

May 31st, 2014 at 6:42pm CST by Peter Sowards

When Josh McCown signed a two-year, $10MM deal with the Buccaneers in March, the position of Bears backup quarterback swung wide open. And when the team added San Jose State’s David Fales with a sixth-round pick two months later, the competition got that much juicier.

Three men are competing for the No. 2 spot on the QB depth chart: Jordan Palmer (brother of Carson), Jerrod Johnson and the aforementioned Fales. Palmer is the leader in the clubhouse, according to Dan Wiederer of the Chicago Tribune, a spot he’s earned with experience. A sixth-round pick in 2007, 2014 will mark his eighth season of professional football.

Johnson spent 18 days on the practice squad in September, Wiederer notes, and has yet to throw a pass in the NFL after entering the league in 2011 as an undrafted free agent from Texas A&M.

Whoever wins the spot has big shoes to fill — McCown shined bright last season filling in for an injured Jay Cutler, leading the league in fewest interceptions per throw and winning three of five starts. The biggest reason for his success, per quarterbacks coach Matt Cavanaugh, was the relationship he shared with Cutler.

“Josh was a great example of a guy where, although he knew he was going to be backing up Jay, he truly approached every day like he was going to be getting all the reps,” Cavanaugh said. “He worked very hard. And not only that, he was selfless enough to know that although I’m competing, I want to be able to help Jay too.

“Those guys had a unique relationship that Jay really counted on. Josh was his sounding board a lot. Sometimes when coaches speak to you, it’s coach-speak. You want to hear one of your buddies say, ‘Hey, they’re right.’ Or, ‘Let’s talk it through and then we’ll approach them about it.’ So there’s a role to be played there.”

Who will be the Bears' backup QB?
David Fales 51.17% (131 votes)
Jordan Palmer 44.14% (113 votes)
Jerrod Johnson 4.69% (12 votes)
Total Votes: 256

Largest 2014 Cap Hits By Position: Defense/ST

May 30th, 2014 at 9:44am CST by Luke Adams

Yesterday, we took a closer look at the players with the largest cap hits for 2014 on the offensive side of the ball. Today, we’ll shift our focus to defense, as well as examining punters and kickers. These guys aren’t necessarily taking in the largest cash payments for the 2014 season, but a combination of base salary and bonuses ensure that their cap numbers are among the NFL’s highest.

As was the case with the offensive players, even just a quick glance at the lists below reveal details about how certain clubs have constructed their rosters, and hint at salary trends by position. Before we jump into the top 2014 cap hits on defense and special teams by position, a few observations about the players that show up on these lists:

  • There are a few instances on the offensive side of the ball where positional lines are blurred — a running back like Darren Sproles often acts as a de facto wide receiver, as do tight ends like Jimmy Graham. But those lines are blurrier on defense, where some teams run 3-4 defenses and others run 4-3. Defensive ends generally get more opportunities to rush the quarterback in 4-3 defenses, so it’s no surprise that four of the top five DEs on this list play in 4-3 systems. Only Haloti Ngata is the exception.
  • Similarly, 3-4 outside linebackers are their teams’ primary pass rushers, and all five of the top OLB cap hits belong to 3-4 players.
  • The current highest cap hit for an outside linebacker actually belongs to LaMarr Woodley of the Steelers. Pittsburgh released him earlier in the offseason, but designated him as a post-June 1 cut, so for now he continues to count for $13.59MM against the team’s cap. That will change in a matter of days though, when Woodley’s 2014 cap number is reduced to just $5.5MM, so we left him off this list.
  • Still, had Woodley been included, it would have only further illustrated the Steelers‘ dedication to stockpiling impact linebackers. Even without Woodley, Pittsburgh still has a top-five cap hit at OLB in Jason Worilds, and the No. 1 cap hit at ILB in Lawrence Timmons. Linebacker may not have been a position of need when the Steelers drafted Ryan Shazier in the first round earlier this month, but it’s hardly a shock that the club went in that direction.
  • The only team with two players on the same list below? The Panthers, with a pair of defensive ends accounting for nearly $30MM in cap space. No wonder the club didn’t have much room left over to add an impact receiver.
  • Joe Haden‘s cap number has yet to be confirmed, since he recently inked an extension, and Over the Cap and Spotrac had different figures for the cornerback. So the number here is an estimation. Either way though, he appears likely to rank second overall this season.
  • The Broncos have the league’s reigning MVP in Peyton Manning and spent big on defense this offseason, but that doesn’t mean they’re ignoring special teams at all. Denver is the only club with both a kicker and punter among the top five cap hits.

Here are the lists of the top five 2014 cap hits by defensive and special teams position:

Defensive end:

  1. Mario Williams, Bills: $18.8MM
  2. Charles Johnson, Panthers: $16.42MM
  3. Haloti Ngata, Ravens: $16MM
  4. Chris Long, Rams: $14.9MM
  5. Greg Hardy, Panthers: $13.116MM

Defensive tackle:

  1. Ndamukong Suh, Lions: $22.413MM
  2. Gerald McCoy, Buccaneers: $15.627MM
  3. Geno Atkins, Bengals: $9MM
  4. Ahtyba Rubin, Browns: $8.175MM
  5. Barry Cofield, Redskins: $7.678MM

Outside linebacker:

  1. Tamba Hali, Chiefs: $11.465MM
  2. Brian Orakpo, Redskins: $11.455MM
  3. Clay Matthews, Packers: $10.944MM
  4. Jason Worilds, Steelers: $9.754MM
  5. Robert Mathis, Colts: $8.75MM

Inside linebacker:

  1. Lawrence Timmons, Steelers: $11.816MM
  2. James Laurinaitis, Rams: $10.4MM
  3. Paul Posluszny, Jaguars: $9.5MM
  4. Dannell Ellerbe, Dolphins: $7.425MM
  5. David Harris, Jets: $7MM

Cornerback:

  1. Brandon Carr, Cowboys: $12.217MM
  2. Joe Haden, Browns: $11.728MM
  3. Johnathan Joseph, Texans: $11.25MM
  4. Brandon Flowers, Chiefs: $10.5MM
  5. Lardarius Webb, Ravens: $10.5MM

Safety:

  1. Eric Berry, Chiefs: $11.62MM
  2. Eric Weddle, Chargers: $10.1MM
  3. Antrel Rolle, Giants: $9.25MM
  4. Dashon Goldson, Buccaneers: $9MM
  5. Michael Griffin, Titans: $8MM

Kicker:

  1. Josh Scobee, Jaguars: $4.188MM
  2. Matt Prater, Broncos: $3.813MM
  3. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots: $3.8MM
  4. Nick Folk, Jets: $3.6MM
  5. Mason Crosby, Packers: $3.4MM

Punter:

  1. Mike Scifres, Chargers: $4.035MM
  2. Dustin Colquitt, Chiefs: $3.8MM
  3. Brandon Fields, Dolphins: $3.586MM
  4. Michael Koenen, Buccaneers: $3.25MM
  5. Britton Colquitt, Broncos: $3.25MM

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

Largest 2014 Cap Hits By Position: Offense

May 29th, 2014 at 2:04pm CST by Luke Adams

Earlier in the spring, we examined the largest contracts signed in free agency this offseason by overall value, per-year value, and guaranteed money. However, while there were some massive deals signed by free agents, most of those contracts don’t include significant first-year cap hits. Since the later years of a contract are typically non-guaranteed, the larger cap hits are pushed to the back half of the term, as shown by Jairus Byrd‘s $54MM deal with the Saints — the 2014 cap number on Byrd’s contract is just $3.5MM, whereas that number jumps to $10.5MM by 2017 and $11MM in 2018.

It should come as no surprise then that when we take a closer look at the top 2014 cap hits, not many ’14 free agents make the top five lists by position. Instead, these are typically players who are at the point in their contracts where cap numbers are increasing, but are still productive enough that those rising cap hits are worth stomaching to keep the players on the roster.

Before we jump into the top 2014 cap hits on offense by position, a few observations about the players that show up on the lists below:

  • Much has been made of the fact that inexpensive quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick have led their teams to the Super Bowl in recent years, and the list of 2014’s biggest cap hits at the position reflects this trend — of the top five QBs, only one (Drew Brees) led his team to the postseason last year, and New Orleans was a No. 6 seed.
  • Similarly, the declining value of running backs has been an oft-discussed trend during this offseason, but the highest-paid players at the position still stack up reasonably well against most other positions. It may take a little more time to tell if the position’s value is decreasing as sharply as it appears, or if this year’s class of free agent backs just wasn’t particularly strong.
  • At tight end, it figures to just be a matter time until Jimmy Graham perennially tops the list of largest cap hits, but for now, his $7.035MM franchise tag leaves him outside the top five.
  • Unsurprisingly, the top five tackles all play on the left side.
  • Breaking down the top fives by position allow us to see which teams place a premium on certain positions, committing a sizable portion of their caps to those spots. For instance, the Saints have a pricey interior line, with two guards in the top five, while the Browns have the top cap hits at both tackle and center.

Here are the lists of the top five 2014 cap hits by offensive position:

Quarterback:

  1. Eli Manning, Giants: $20.4MM
  2. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: $18.895MM
  3. Jay Cutler, Bears: $18.5MM
  4. Drew Brees, Saints: $18.4MM
  5. Sam Bradford, Rams: $17.61MM

Running back:

  1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings: $14.4MM
  2. LeSean McCoy, Eagles: $9.7MM
  3. Ray Rice, Ravens: $8.75MM
  4. Arian Foster, Texans: $8.5MM
  5. Matt Forte, Bears: $7.9MM

Wide receiver:

  1. Mike Wallace, Dolphins: $17.25MM
  2. Andre Johnson, Texans: $15.645MM
  3. Percy Harvin, Seahawks: $13.4MM
  4. Calvin Johnson, Lions: $13.058MM
  5. Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers: $12.432MM

Tight end:

  1. Jason Witten, Cowboys: $8.412MM
  2. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars: $8.25MM
  3. Greg Olsen, Panthers: $7.8MM
  4. Antonio Gates, Chargers: $7.363MM
  5. Vernon Davis, 49ers: $7.343MM

Tackle:

  1. Joe Thomas, Browns: $12.3MM
  2. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Jets: $11.699MM
  3. Russell Okung, Seahawks: $11.24MM
  4. Trent Williams, Redskins: $10.98MM
  5. Jake Long, Rams: $9.25MM

Guard:

  1. Jahri Evans, Saints: $11MM
  2. Logan Mankins, Patriots: $10.5MM
  3. Carl Nicks, Buccaneers: $9.357MM
  4. Ben Grubbs, Saints: $9.1MM
  5. Andy Levitre, Titans: $8.6MM

Center:

  1. Alex Mack, Browns: $10MM
  2. David Baas, Giants: $8.225MM
  3. Ryan Kalil, Panthers: $7.284MM
  4. Nick Mangold, Jets: $7.227MM
  5. Chris Myers, Texans: $7MM

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

Extension Candidate: Alex Smith

May 28th, 2014 at 8:27pm CST by Zachary Links

Raise your hand if two years ago you thought Alex Smith would be in position to ask for a contract with an average annual value of about $18MM. Okay, now stop lying and put your hand down.

After a revitalizing season with the Chiefs last year that brought about his first Pro Bowl invitation, Smith is entering the final year of his contract and the Chiefs would like to keep him off the open market. That could be easier said that done. Earlier today, Ed Werder of ESPN.com reported that there has been “very little dialogue” between the two sides on a fresh contract. Head coach Andy Reid seems to think that they could get something done, but Kansas City is understandably reluctant to give Smith a deal similar to the one Jay Cutler got from the Bears. Cutler’s new seven-year deal gave him an AAV of $18.1MM, and that could be too rich for KC’s blood when it comes to the former No. 1 overall pick.

Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap looked at Smith’s case and weighed him against Cutler and Tony Romo. There are few areas – outside of win percentage – that favor Smith in a matchup with Romo when considering the Dallas QB’s completion percentage, touchdown/interception ratio, and other vitals. However, Smith and Cutler do appear to be a much stronger match. Neither guy is a slam-dunk franchise QB but both men have found success (even when it’s not pretty) and in a league with few quality options, they have to be considered premium talents. Ultimately, Fitzgerald concludes that an $18MM per year asking price is not outlandish based on what he done the last few seasons and I’m inclined to agree.

Do you think Smith is deserving of that type of deal? Cast your vote below and let us know in the comments section.

Would you sign Smith to an $18MM/year deal?
No 91.99% (356 votes)
Yes 8.01% (31 votes)
Total Votes: 387

The Importance Of June 1st

May 28th, 2014 at 1:44pm CST by Luke Adams

Many of the most important dates of the NFL offseason have already come and gone, but this Sunday represents another day that team executives around the league have circled on their calendars. Here’s a brief summary of why June 1 is important, and what we can expect starting next Monday, after that deadline has passed:

  • As we explained in a PFR Glossary entry, players released or traded after June 1 count against the cap differently than players who were cut or moved earlier in the offseason, with teams able to spread the player’s dead money across multiple years. So we could see a handful of veterans released or dealt once June 1 is behind us.
  • Several players were released earlier in the offseason and designated as post-June 1 cuts, meaning their cap hits will finally be reduced starting in June. Those players are LaMarr Woodley (Steelers; $8MM cap savings), Carlos Rogers (49ers; $6.6MM), Miles Austin (Cowboys; $5.5MM), Steve Smith (Panthers; $5MM), David Bass (Giants; $5MM), Daryn Colledge (Cardinals; $5MM), and Thomas DeCoud (Falcons; $3.4MM). Each of those teams was starting to approach the cap limit, so the new savings will give them the flexibility to lock up draft picks and possibly revisit the free agent market.
  • Speaking of free agents, June 1 represents the deadline for teams to extend contract tenders to their unrestricted FAs. If a club’s former veteran player remains unsigned, that team can make him a one-year offer worth 110% of his previous cap number (minus workout and incentive payments). For former players who were on rookie contracts, the one-year tender is worth 100% of the player’s previous base salary. Players who receive these June 1 tenders have until July 22 to sign with another team — after that date, the player’s previous team retains exclusive negotiating rights throughout the season.
  • Most free agents won’t receive tender offers, meaning they become free after June 1 to sign with any club without being tied to future draft compensation. As such, we’ll likely see an increase in veterans inking contracts, since teams will no longer have to worry that signing those players will reduce their chances at compensatory 2015 draft picks.

Details from Over The Cap were used in the creation of this post.

Extension Candidate: Roddy White

May 27th, 2014 at 8:13pm CST by Zachary Links

The Falcons want to lock up former All-Pro wide receiver Roddy White up for the long haul, but an unfortunate tragedy put football and contract talks on the backburner earlier this offseason. Understandably, neither side wanted to talk business after the untimely passing of White’s half-brother, Tyron Moore Jr. While things were put on hold, we learned earlier today that the Falcons still expect to hammer out an extension with White at some point this offseason.

The report from Ian Rapoport of NFL Network suggested that Brandon Marshall‘s new three-year, $30MM pact with the Bears could be used as a model for the deal. On the surface, that sounds like a fair deal considering that both men have been among the league’s elite wide receivers for several years. However, given White’s injury struggles last season and the presence of Julio Jones on the other side of the field, that could be a bit too lofty for him. Besides, Marshall is a couple years younger than White, who will celebrate his 33rd birthday in November.

Complicating matters further will be Jones’ contract situation. The dynamic receiver is set to earn $5.15MM in 2014 and $10.18MM in 2015 before he’s eligible to hit free agency and it’s a safe bet that his next deal will have an average annual value closer to his 2015 salary than his 2014 figure. At the end of the day, however, the Falcons know that White’s effectiveness will be limited if he doesn’t have another elite WR with him to attract attention. The Falcons got some solid games out of Harry Douglas and others last season, but outside of Jones, no wide receiver on the roster can deliver like White.

Some might say that a better comparable for White would be Colts veteran Reggie Wayne, who signed a three-year, $17.5MM extension at age 33. ESPN.com’s Vaughn McClure raised this point recently, but there are a couple of reasons why that comparable might be off. For starters, in our humble opinion, White has more value than Wayne, even when taking health into account. Secondly, Wayne’s deal was struck two years ago when teams were working under a smaller salary cap. Three years is probably the appropriate length on a new deal for White and a dollar figure that falls between Marshall’s deal and Wayne’s deal (say, $8MM average annual value) would make a lot of sense.

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