After a mysteriously quiet 2007, Julius Peppers mounted a strong comeback campaign in ’08. Then, on the heels of notching a career-high 14.5 sacks and helping the Panthers return to the playoffs, Peppers wanted out. Specifically, Peppers expressed a desire to join a team with a 3-4 scheme so that he could move from defensive end to linebacker.
Peppers insisted that he would never sign a long-term deal with Carolina and tried hard to discourage the team from using the franchise tender on him in the 2009 offseason.
“The front office has been informed of my desire to explore opportunities with other NFL teams following the expiration of my contract next month,” Peppers said in a statement (via ESPN.com). “At this point in my NFL career, I am seeking new challenges that will allow me to grow, develop and reach my personal potential on the football field.”
The Panthers held firm, however, and applied the one-year, $16.7MM placeholder on their top defender. In theory, another team could have signed Peppers as a restricted free agent, but that would have required the forfeiture of two first-round picks on top of a mammoth contract. While he was stuck between a rock and a hard place, Peppers abstained from offseason activities. The multiple-time Pro Bowler’s absence cast a serious shadow over the Panthers’ offseason and made the football world wonder whether the Panthers would cave and trade him.
Ultimately, Peppers’ agent was unable to find a suitable deal for him. And, on June 26, 2009, Peppers inked his one-year deal with the Panthers.
Peppers earned another Pro Bowl nod in 2009, and that proved to be the final season of his first Panthers run. After the season, the Panthers declined to use the franchise tag on him, allowing him to reach unrestricted free agency and to a six-year, $91.5MM deal with the Bears. When that deal was terminated in 2014, he stayed in the NFC North and signed with the Packers.
It took a while, but Peppers ultimately came full circle. In 2017, the veteran joined the Panthers on a one-year, $3.5MM deal. A few months later, the Panthers canned GM Dave Gettleman and brought back Marty Hurney as their top football executive, but there were no hard feelings between Peppers and Hurney.
Dealing with several young talents’ contract situations, the Cowboys certainly may have to let a couple of their contract-year starters walk. One of those the team may be ready to stomach departing: La’el Collins. Dallas’ starting right tackle is already on his second NFL contract, and it expires after the season. The Cowboys are expected to let Collins depart after 2019, Calvin Watkins of The Athletic notes (subscription required). Joining Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Jaylon Smith and Byron Jones as key Cowboys in walk years, Collins would stand to be a key presence on the 2020 free agent market. While Cowboys executive VP Stephen Jones mentioned him as a player the team would like to retain, Watkins adds the team does not want to shell out a big contract to keep him — which obviously means not going near the prices Trent Brown and Ja’Wuan James received in March. This would make sense, with the Cowboys already having three well-paid offensive linemen — Tyron Smith, Zack Martin and Travis Frederick — on their roster.
The Cowboys drafted Connor McGovern in the third round and have 2018 second-rounder Connor Williams set to compete with him and Xavier Su’a-Filo for the left guard position this season. Williams may be in the mix to take over at right tackle next season, should McGovern or Su’a-Filo win this year’s left guard job, per Watkins.
Here is the latest from around the NFL:
Julius Peppers wrapped up one of the most successful careers in edge rusher history but will not be leaving the Panthers. The recently retired defensive end will take a job with the Panthers, his title being “special assistant, business operations,” the team announced. It does not sound like the 39-year-old future Hall of Famer will be contributing to the front office’s efforts, but perhaps that type of role could be in his future.
Speaking of former players landing on staffs, former Redskins safety Kyshoen Jarrett will break into full-time coaching. Jarrett is now a Redskins defensive quality control coach, per NBC Sports Washington. Suffering a career-ending injury as a rookie, Jarrett worked as a Washington coaching intern last season.
In addition to hiring former Cowboys scout Jim Abrams as their new college scouting director, the Raiders added Dwayne Joseph as their pro scouting director, Scott Bair of NBC Sports Bay Area notes. Joseph spent the past four years in the same role with the Eagles and was a Bears staffer prior to that. With Mike Mayock retooling Oakland’s scouting department, more hires are on the way.
The Broncos will no longer have a Kubiak on their staff. After Gary and Klint Kubiak left for the Vikings, one of Gary’s other sons — Klein Kubiak — will not be part of the Broncos’ staff going forward. Klein Kubiak worked as the team’s southeast area scout, but his contract was not renewed, per Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic (on Twitter). Frantzy Jourdain will fill the position. Jordan spent the past three years with Houston, serving as first an area scout and then a national scout, and the previous 13 in New England. The Texans parted ways with Jourdain last month.
Panthers defensive end Julius Peppers announced his retirement from football on Friday morning. The 39-year-old is hanging ’em up after 17 seasons in the league.
Peppers leaves the game after a storied career and the fourth-most sacks in NFL history. Many thought Peppers would have continued to play for at least another season to jump to third on the all-time list – his 159.5 sack total is just half a sack behind Kevin Greene.
“Anybody who knows me knows I’m not big on words and I don’t like to put myself out there, so I’m just gonna get right to it,” Peppers wrote in a piece for The Players’ Tribune. “Seventeen years is a long time to be playing this game. It’s two careers for a lot of people. I’m thankful that I have been able to play so long and still be healthy. I’m not all banged up and beaten down. I still feel good. But as much as I would love to play forever, I know that I can’t. It’s gotta end at some point. That point is now. Today, I’m retiring.”
The UNC product was a star from the get-go as he tallied 12 sacks in 12 games as a rookie. He spent his first eight years in the league with the Panthers, but when the two sides couldn’t agree to terms on a new deal in 2010, he joined up with the Bears on a six-year, $91.5MM deal. Later, he hooked on with the Packers before returning home to Carolina in 2017.
“In getting to know Julius over these past months, I’ve learned that he is a man of few words. When he speaks, everyone listens. With that in mind, I will be brief. He’s one of the best to ever wear a Carolina uniform,” new Panthers owner David Tepper said in a statement released by the team. “He carries himself with dignity, integrity and class, and will always be a Panther.”
Peppers was hoping for something better than back-to-back 7-9 seasons to wrap up his career, but he came full circle nonetheless and excelled on a personal level. He notched eleven sacks in ’17 and was still productive last season with five QB takedowns. According to Pro Football Focus, Peppers graded out as the No. 21 DE in the NFL last year (tied with Ryan Kerrigan and Michael Bennett).
We here at PFR wish Peppers the best in retirement.
Last week, we heard that Panthers head coach Ron Riverawould likely remain with the team in 2019, and Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports and Ian Rapoport of NFL.com confirm as much. Both reporters believe there could be changes made to Rivera’s coaching staff, however, and Rapoport expects such changes would be made primarily on the defensive side of the ball. Having Rivera take over defensive play-calling duties earlier this season has already paid dividends, but Rapoport suggests that the team could look to reunite with former DC Steve Wilks if Wilks is fired by the Cardinals (as is expected).
In any event, JLC says that Rivera and new owner David Tepper will have a candid conversation after the season, and if Rivera balks at Tepper’s demand for changes to the composition of Rivera’s staff, then the situation could deteriorate. But for the moment, it appears as if Rivera will be back for his ninth year at the helm, though he will have at least a few different subordinates. Rapoport says that GM Marty Hurney is likely safe as well. David Newton of ESPN.com spoke to Tepper today, but Tepper declined to comment on Rivera’s status.
Meanwhile, as Joe Person of The Athletic writes, the Panthers are expected to bid adieu to at least a couple franchise icons. Julius Peppers is expected to retire, and Thomas Davis has indicated he would like to be back with the club, but his contract is up at the end of the year and there is no guarantee he will be back. Of course, Ryan Kalil announced back in January that this season would be his last, and he has not given any indication that he has changed his mind. While Greg Olsenexpects to return in 2019, and though the team is exploring a new deal with safety Eric Reid, there will be significant turnover to a roster that has been one of the league’s oldest over the past several seasons. Person offers his take on what the Panthers should do with their top ten players on expiring contracts.
It has become clear to most everyone, including Person and Newton, that Devin Funchesswill not be back with the club in 2019. Funchess is inactive for today’s finale, and his playing time had already decreased significantly in the second half of the season.
Panthers defensive end Julius Peppers has passed his physical and has been removed from the PUP list, as David Newton of ESPN.com reports. The team has a practice at 3:15 this afternoon, and Peppers will participate.
Peppers reunited with the Panthers last offseason after a four-year run with the Bears and a three-year stint with the Packers. The former No. 2 overall pick turned back the clock, as he posted 11 sacks for Carolina in 2017, his highest total since the 2012 campaign. His efforts made him the best pass rusher on this year’s free agent market in our eyes, despite the fact that he is now 38 years old.
Sack totals are not necessarily indicative of overall performance, but Pro Football Focus graded Peppers as a league-average defensive end last year, ranking him 63rd among 110 qualifying edge defenders. He played 50% of Carolina’s defensive snaps in 2017, and he’ll likely continue in a rotational role during the upcoming season.
The surefire Hall-of-Famer will earn $5MM in 2018, which represents a nice raise from the $3.5MM he made last year. He has accumulated a whopping 154.5 sacks in his career, the fourth-most in league history, and he could pass Kevin Greene‘s 160 mark this season. He also has nine Pro Bowls and three first-team All-Pro selections to his credit, but he is still chasing that elusive Super Bowl ring. He is hoping to achieve that last milestone with the team that drafted him over 16 years ago.
After a mysteriously quiet 2007, Julius Peppers mounted a strong comeback campaign in ’08. Then, on the heels of notching a career-high 14.5 sacks and helping the Panthers return to the playoffs, Peppers wanted out. Specifically, Peppers expressed a desire to join a team with a 3-4 scheme so that he could move from defensive end to linebacker.
Peppers insisted that he would never sign a long-term deal with Carolina and tried hard to discourage the team from using the franchise tender on him in the 2009 offseason.
“The front office has been informed of my desire to explore opportunities with other NFL teams following the expiration of my contract next month,” Peppers said in a statement (via ESPN.com). “At this point in my NFL career, I am seeking new challenges that will allow me to grow, develop and reach my personal potential on the football field.”
The Panthers held firm, however, and applied the one-year, $16.7MM placeholder on their top defender. In theory, another team could have signed Peppers as a restricted free agent, but that would have required the forfeiture of two first-round picks on top of a mammoth contract. While he was stuck between a rock and a hard place, Peppers abstained from offseason activities. The multiple-time Pro Bowler’s absence cast a serious shadow over the Panthers’ offseason and made the football world wonder whether the Panthers would cave and trade him.
Ultimately, Peppers’ agent was unable to find a suitable deal for him. And, on June 26, 2009, Peppers inked his one-year deal with the Panthers.
Peppers earned another Pro Bowl nod in 2009, and that proved to be the final season of his first Panthers run. After the season, the Panthers declined to use the franchise tag on him, allowing him to reach unrestricted free agency and to a six-year, $91.5MM deal with the Bears. When that deal was terminated in 2014, he stayed in the NFC North and signed with the Packers.
It took a while, but Peppers ultimately came full circle. In 2017, the veteran joined the Panthers on a one-year, $3.5MM deal. A few months later, the Panthers canned GM Dave Gettleman and brought back Marty Hurney as their top football executive, but there were no hard feelings between Peppers and Hurney. This past March, Peppers and Hurney shook hands on a new one-year, $5MM deal to keep the 38-year-old in Carolina.
March 14th, 2018 at 11:55am CST by Dallas Robinson
The Panthers have re-signed veteran defensive end Julius Peppers to a one-year, $5MM deal, according to Joe Person of the Charlotte Observer (Twitterlinks).
The 2018 free agent edge defender class is extremely weak, so much so that PFR named Peppers as the best pass rusher on the market. That’s not to say Peppers isn’t still a talented player, but a 38-year-old isn’t often viewed as the best available free agent at his position.
Peppers, of course, spent the first eight years of his career with the Panthers before reuniting on a one-year pact for 2017. The veteran defensive end collected $3.5MM with Carolina a season ago, and he will now see a pay increase after a successful campaign.
And successful it was, as Peppers managed 11 sacks, his highest total 2012. Sacks can be fluky, of course, but Pro Football Focus graded Peppers as a league-average defensive end, ranking him 63rd among 110 qualifying edge defenders.
Peppers played 50% of Carolina’s defensive snaps in 2017, and he’ll likely continue in a rotational role during the upcoming season. He’ll play alongside other Panthers defensive linemen including Mario Addison, Wes Horton, and Daeshon Hall.
There will be tons of free agents available in March, but only a some of them can be real difference makers for your favorite team. To help separate the wheat from the chaff, we’ve assembled our early list of the Top 50 NFL Free Agents for 2018.
Our early version of the NFL’s top 50 free agents may include players who will be re-signed between now and March 14. When we update this list next week, a few of the big names will be spoken for while new high-profile names will join the fray as veterans become cap casualties.
Recently, we broke down the top free agents by position on both offense and defense, but our rankings below may not have each player listed in the same order. Those position lists took the short-term value of a player into account more heavily, meaning many players in their 30s received prominent placement. Our overall top 50 list favors longer-term value, and is more about forecasting which players will be in highest demand when it comes to years and dollars.
With those caveats out of the way, let’s dive in! Here are Pro Football Rumors’ top 50 NFL free agents for 2018:
1. Kirk Cousins, QB (Redskins): At long last, Kirk Cousins is headed towards unrestricted free agency. You may or may not regard Cousins as a star, but he is the best quarterback in recent history to reach the open market and QB-needy teams will be rolling out the red carpet for him. The Jets, Vikings, Broncos, and Cardinals have been named as the top suitors for his services, but the NFL is full of surprises this time of year and we would not be surprised to see other teams get involved. The cash-flush Browns are reportedly keen on signing a lower-cost vet and drafting a QB early, but who’s to say they won’t change course and get in on the Cousins sweepstakes? The Bills, Giants, Dolphins, Bucs, and Colts could also consider kicking the tires here, but there are obstacles in that bunch ranging from established starters already in place (Eli Manning, Ryan Tannehill, Jameis Winston, and Andrew Luck) to financial constraints. No matter where he goes, it’s almost certain that Cousins will become the league’s highest-paid player of all-time. That is, until another top-tier QB signs a contract extension soon after.
2. Drew Brees (Saints): There are multiple possibilities for Cousins but it’s hard to see a scenario in which Brees actually leaves the Saints. Brees has already said that he does not plan on testing free agency, so he’ll likely put pen to paper before things begin on March 14. As far as we can tell, the only way Brees will think about leaving is if he is lowballed to an extreme degree by the Saints, but that seems improbable based on his history with the team
3. Case Keenum (Vikings): One year ago, no one ever would have expected Keenum to be one of 2018’s most sought-after free agents. The Vikings signed the former Rams signal caller to a one-year, $2MM deal in March with the idea that he would back up Sam Bradford and, eventually slide down to third on the depth chart when/if Teddy Bridgewater returned to full health. When Bradford went down in September, Keenum exceeded all expectations and put together the best season of his career. The 30-year-old graded out as Pro Football Focus’ ninth-ranked QB in 2017, putting him above the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers, Marcus Mariota, Matthew Stafford, and Tyrod Taylor. With Keenum at the helm, the Vikings earned a first-round bye and beat the Saints in a playoff thriller before succumbing to the Eagles in the NFC championship game. Of course, after four seasons of mediocrity, teams are wondering whether this was an aberration or a real sign of things to come. Teams know that Keenum is not a lock, but he’s also the best Plan B for any team that loses out on Cousins or doesn’t have the means to sign him.
4. Andrew Norwell, G (Panthers): There was a time when tackles were the only offensive linemen to really cash in on the open market. That’s no longer the case, as evidenced by the contracts of Kevin Zeitler (five years, $60MM) and Kelechi Osemele (five years, $58.5MM). Osemele inked his free agent deal with the Raiders in 2016 and Zeitler signed his in the 2017 offseason. Given the cap increase and the natural progression of the market, Norwell figures to reset the market for interior linemen. Keenum figures to gross no less than $20MM/year on his next contract, so he’s slotted behind him, but an average annual value of $13-14MM is not out of the question for the former undrafted free agent.
5. Nate Solder, OT (Patriots): Solder isn’t coming off of his best season and he might be the least sexy name in the top ten. Still, there’s a dearth of tackles league-wide and Solder has been among the league’s best at his position for quite some time. The Patriots are bracing for Solder to leave as they fear he’ll garner offers of $12MM/year. No other tackle in this year’s free agent crop is even close to him in terms of ability, so we’re also buying into the hype. Injuries contributed to Solder’s up-and-down season, particularly early on, so teams will take that into account when evaluating him.
6. Allen Robinson, WR (Jaguars): The Jaguars opted against using the franchise tag on Robinson, which is understandable since they have limited cap space. Robinson missed almost all of 2017 with an ACL tear, but his 2015 season (and even his so-so 2016 campaign) gives teams reason to believe that he can be a quality WR1. Robinson is one of only two such players on the unrestricted market, so expect him to get paid. Robinson probably couldn’t do worse than Kenny Britt‘s four-year, $32MM deal with the Browns from last season (and he should do a whole lot better), but if he is underwhelmed by the multi-year offers he receives, he could always go the Alshon Jeffery route. Jeffery inked a one-year, $9.5MM prove-it deal with the Eagles and that turned out to be a smashing success for both parties. Jeffery was rewarded with a four-year, $52MM extension in December, so Robinson’s camp will surely be open to a pillow contract if necessary.
7. Sammy Watkins, WR (Rams): Some may view Robinson and Watkins as 1A and 1B in this year’s wide receiver class, particularly since Robinson missed all of 2017 and Watkins, despite his own injury history, played in all but one of the Rams’ games. Unfortunately, Watkins did not have the platform year he was hoping for as he caught just 39 passes for 593 yards. If we strike Robinson’s lost year and Watkins’ down year from the record, the breakdown favors the Jags receiver – Robinson averaged 77 receptions for 1,078 yards and eight touchdowns per 16 games in that set versus Watkins’ 66 grabs for 1,063 yards and seven scores. These two should come pretty close in average annual value, but we give the edge to Robinson.
8. Trumaine Johnson, CB (Rams): Players often bemoan the franchise tag, but Johnson can’t really complain after receiving two consecutive tags from the Rams and earning more than $30MM between 2016 and 2017. The Rams, rightfully, did not consider a third consecutive tag for Johnson at a cost of ~$20MM and they already have his replacement in Marcus Peters. That’s one suitor down, but plenty of other teams will be eager to speak with Johnson, who profiles as the best cornerback in a deep class.
9. Sheldon Richardson, DT (Seahawks): Richardson gave the Jets lots of headaches, but he also gave them high-end production. He didn’t quite match that production in Seattle, but Richardson is positioned for a massive payday anyway since impactful defensive linemen are at a premium. Our own Dallas Robinson estimates that Richardson will garner about $9MM/year, but I would say that is his floor. The top-end of free agency rarely yields team-friendly deals, so Richardson could easily creep into eight figures in AAV, particularly since he does not turn 28 until November.
10. Dontari Poe, DT (Falcons): Poe thought he was in for a monster contract last offseason, but concerns about his lingering back issues forced him to take a one-year, $8MM deal with Atlanta. Teams may still worry about his back being a ticking time bomb, but perhaps they’ll view him in a different light now that he has played back-to-back 16 game seasons and has only missed two regular season contests over the course of his career.
11. Star Lotulelei, DT (Panthers): If Norwell didn’t draw the franchise tag from the Panthers, popular thought was that Lotulelei would be a candidate for the tag. But, Carolina only ever considered the tag for their kicker (and they re-signed him instead). That’s good news for teams in need of help up front. The advanced metrics have never been fond of the 28-year-old’s play, but he has been largely healthy over the course of his five-year career and has started in all but one of his regular season games. He had just 1.5 sacks last season, but Lotulelei does have 11.5 sacks to his credit, including four sacks in 2016.
12. A.J. McCarron, QB (Bengals): It’s difficult to peg McCarron’s value heading into free agency. Outside of some quality starts in 2015, there isn’t much film out there on McCarron, despite that fact that he has spent four years in the NFL. For what it’s worth, Hue Jackson has been itching to reunite with McCarron and was reportedly devastated when last year’s midseason deal to bring him to Cleveland fell through. Like the rest of the quarterback’s in this year’s group, his market won’t really emerge until Cousins puts pen to paper. Keenum is probably second on the board for most teams in search of a QB, but some clubs (like the Browns) may have McCarron higher on the list.
13. Sam Bradford, QB (Vikings): Questions persist about Bradford’s health and any team signing him will surely backstop him with at least one other capable option. But, when he’s healthy, he’s pretty darn good. In 2016, Bradford appeared in all but one of the Vikings’ games and turned in a league-leading 71.6% completion percentage.
14. Bashaud Breeland, CB (Redskins): The Redskins would like to re-sign Breeland at the “right price,” but the market for his services could explode and quickly put Washington out of the running. Breeland reportedly felt disrespected by the five-year, $75MM deal given to teammate Josh Norman last year and this is his opportunity to get a big payday of his own. Last year, A.J. Bouye‘s youth helped propel him to a five-year, $65MM free agent deal with the Jaguars. Breeland won’t get an offer quite that high, but he only just celebrated his 26th birthday and teams won’t be hesitant about giving this sound tackler a multi-year deal.
15. Malcolm Butler, CB (Patriots): Had the Patriots traded Butler to the Saints last offseason, he’d probably be playing under a lucrative multi-year deal right now. He did not have a great walk year in New England and he’s no longer positioned to sign a market-topping deal, but he’ll still garner attention around the league resulting in a lucrative contract. Butler ranked just 51st amongst PFF’s qualified corners last season, but he still showed flashes of being able to guard lethal wide receivers. He’s unlikely to return to the Patriots after he was benched for the majority of Super Bowl LII and inquiring teams will want to dig more into Bill Belichick‘s controversial decision.
16. Muhammad Wilkerson, DT (Jets): That sound you hear is the boiling blood of a Jets fan. Wilkerson was a top-tier defensive lineman before signing an $86MM extension with the Jets in the summer of 2016. Things quickly unraveled, however, as the Temple product clashed with coaches and routinely showed up late for team functions. Now that the Jets have officially cut bait with Wilkerson, it will be interesting to see what teams are willing to offer him. In terms of talent, Wilkerson has to rank no lower than second behind former teammate Richardson amongst defensive tackles. However, the perception is that he quit on the Jets right after he secured the bag, so his next bag figures to be a lot lighter. Look for Richardson to ink a one-year prove-it deal with a club or perhaps a two-year deal with an easy escape button in 2019.
17. Teddy Bridgewater, QB (Vikings): Bridgewater is in the same boat as Bradford – the talent is there, but no team will be able to bank on his health. Bridgewater returned faster than expected from his gruesome knee injury, but we barely saw him on the field thanks to the rise of Keenum.
18. E.J. Gaines, CB (Bills): Injuries in the fall limited Gaines to just 11 games last season, but he proved to be a quality return for the Bills in the Watkins trade (not to mention the second-round pick that came with him). Gaines graded out as the No. 13 cornerback in the league last year, per PFF, and he just turned 26 last month. The cons: Gaines missed all of 2015 due to injury and didn’t look all that sharp in ’16.
19. Trey Burton, TE (Eagles): Burton does not have as much name value as other tight ends in this year’s class, but he easily offers the most potential. Burton emerged from the shadow of Zach Ertz this past season in Philadelphia and put himself on the map with big games against the Seahawks and Rams late in the season. The Eagles do not have the cap room to retain him, so he’ll take his blocking skills and surprisingly adept passing arm elsewhere.
20. Paul Richardson, WR (Seahawks): Richardson stepped into a larger role last year when the Seahawks traded Jermaine Kearse to the Jets. He did well with the larger workload as he averaged 16 yards per catch. Richardson won’t turn 26 until April and doesn’t come with the same medical red flags as the older WRs in this year’s crop, so he’s probably in line for a nice guarantee on a multi-year deal. Because of his youth, he could have an opportunity to strike it rich again when he takes his next trip through free agency.
21. Jimmy Graham, TE (Seahawks): Graham is not expected to re-sign with the Seahawks and there’s already chatter about a reunion with the Saints. Whether that comes to fruition or not, Graham should net a decent deal after catching 57 passes for 520 yars and ten touchdowns last season. He’s not as explosive as he was in his New Orleans days, but he’s still a difference maker in the red zone.
22. Nigel Bradham, LB (Eagles): Non-pass rushing linebackers typically do not cash in on the open market and, as our own Dallas Robinson recently noted, Danny Trevethan’s 2016 deal with the Bears stands as the watermark with an average of $7MM per year. Bradham could flirt with that line after two solid seasons with the Eagles, but he won’t blow the lid off of the LB market.
23. Eric Reid, S (49ers): Reid is just 26 and is undoubtedly a starting quality safety. He has both youth and versatility on his side, but it’s possible that his anthem protest participation could hurt him when it comes to some suitors. Injuries over the last two seasons will hurt his market as well.
24. Aaron Colvin, CB (Jaguars): Colvin was eclipsed in Jacksonville thanks to the presence of Jalen Ramsey and Bouye. He has excelled as a slot corner, and that has plenty of value on his own, but he could get more money than expected if teams believe he can also contribute on the outside.
25. Justin Pugh, G (Giants): Pugh missed half of last season due to injuries and the advanced metrics have never been fond of his play. But, his ability to play four positions on the offensive line and the dearth of quality available linemen will produce a healthy market.
26. Morgan Burnett, S (Packers): Speaking of versatility, Burnett has logged snaps at cornerback, free safety, and even linebacker over the course of his eight-year career with the Packers.
27. Marqise Lee, WR (Jaguars): Robinson is getting all of the ink, but Lee will have a healthy market of his own after catching 119 passes for 1,553 yards and six touchdowns over the last two seasons in Jacksonville. He’s not a star, but he’s among the best WR2 options in this year’s free agent class.
28. Kenny Vaccaro, S (Saints): With the ability to play both safety and slot cornerback, Vaccaro will have a fair amount of suitors. Analytics-focused teams might not high on him after he ranked as the worst coverage safety in the league, according to PFF.
29. Dion Lewis, RB (Patriots): Finally, a running back! As we all know, veteran RBs don’t get a ton of love in free agency, but Lewis stands as the best at his position. Lewis is coming off of a strong platform year in which he averaged 5.0 yards per carry with six touchdowns on the ground while adding 32 receptions for 214 yards and three TDs for the AFC champs.
30. Morris Claiborne, CB (Jets): The Jets are out for two starting corners this offseason, but it doesn’t look likely that they’ll re-sign Claiborne, despite having ample cap room. Claiborne turned in a solid, though not spectacular, season for Gang Green and he was largely healthy. Contenders likely won’t see Claiborne as a CB1, but he could prove to be a good value as a CB2. Claiborne earned $5MM on a one-year deal with the Jets last season and his next contract should see an uptick in AAV, perhaps over a longer period.
31. Ryan Jensen, C (Ravens): Jensen stepped into a starting role in 2017 and flourished, grading out as the No. 9 center in the NFL, per PFF. The former sixth-round pick also has previous experience at guard.
32. Jack Mewhort, G (Colts): Mewhort’s season ended prematurely in October thanks to a knee injury, marking his second straight incomplete campaign. That’s not a great way to enter the open market, but he did have three quality years as an NFL starter before that. Mewhort doesn’t turn 27 until October, which helps his case.
33. Carlos Hyde, RB (49ers): Hyde, like Lewis, will fall victim to the league’s bias against older running backs, but he doesn’t celebrate his 28th birthday until September, so don’t peg him for the old folks home just yet. He failed to reach 4.0 yards per carry for the first time in his career last season, but he did position himself as a pass-catching threat with 59 catches for 350 yards.
34. Weston Richburg, C (Giants): Richburg’s concussion could ward off teams, but he says that he has been medically cleared for months. If he checks out with doctors, Richburg may be in line for a nice payday. Before his unfortunate head injury, Richburg excelled as a center for the G-Men in 2015 and 2016.
36. NaVorro Bowman, LB (Raiders): He has a fan in new Raiders defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, so he may continue to ply his craft in the Bay Area.
37. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE (Jets): AS-J rebounded from personal issues to post the best season of his career with the Jets. He was impressive at times, but he is no better than the No. 3 TE in this year’s free agent crop.
38. Josh Kline, G (Titans): A skilled run-blocker in a weak crop for guards, Kline should do well for himself.
39. Patrick Robinson, CB (Eagles): Robinson is a talented slot cornerback, but the cash-strapped Eagles will have a hard time retaining him.
40. Tyler Eifert, TE (Bengals): Once one of the NFL’s brightest stars at tight end, Eifert has been limited by a host of injuries. You can expect Eifert to ink a one-year deal somewhere with a low base and ample incentives.
41. Isaiah Crowell, RB (Browns): Should Crowell be the bell cow for a team? Maybe not, but he is a talented runner who has made GMs regret passing on him in the 2014 draft.
42. Terrelle Pryor, WR (Redskins): Pryor found himself disappointed by the 2017 free agent market, but that paled in comparison to the disappointment felt by the Redskins after signing him to a one-year deal. Pryor will benefit from a shallow WR crop, however.
43. Adrian Clayborn, DE (Falcons): Clayborn graded out as PFF’s No. 19 ranked edge defender this season and tallied a career-high 9.5 sacks. That sack total is a bit misleading, however, since six of those came in a November contest against the Cowboys.
44. Jerick McKinnon, RB (Vikings): He’s not built for 20 carries per game, but he’s a dynamic athlete with proven pass-catching ability. I’m probably more bullish on him than most, but I’ve placed him near the backend of the top 50 to reflect his expected payday.
50. Jordan Matthews, WR (Bills): Injuries held Matthews back in 2017, but he’s only one year removed from posting 73 receptions for 804 yards and three touchdowns with the Eagles.
NFL free agency will get underway on Wednesday, March 14th, and while the list of free agents will change between now and then, we do have some idea of who will be available when free agency kicks off. The frenzy is right around the corner and it’s time for us to break down the outlook for each position. After looking at offense on Monday, we’ll tackle defense and special teams today.
Listed below are our rankings for the top 15 free agents at each defensive position. These rankings aren’t necessarily determined by the value of the contracts – or the amount of guaranteed money – that each player is expected to land in free agency. These are simply the players we like the most at each position, with both short- and long-term value taken into account.
Restricted and exclusive-rights free agents, as well as players who received the franchise tag, aren’t listed here, since the roadblocks in place to hinder another team from actually acquiring most of those players prevent them from being true free agents.
We’ll almost certainly be higher or lower on some free agents than you are, so feel free to weigh in below in our comments section to let us know which players we’ve got wrong.
Here’s our breakdown of the current top 15 free agents by defensive position for 2018:
As a positional group, pass rushers comprise interesting market on the defensive side of the ball. It’s not often that a list of best available players is topped by a 38-year-old, but Peppers is the top free agent edge defender after the Cowboys and Lions deployed the franchise tag on Demarcus Lawrence and Ezekiel Ansah, respectively. As with quarterbacks, NFL clubs are extremely reluctant to allow pass rushers to hit the open market, so top-tier options are rarely ever truly “available.” Peppers, for his part, hasn’t even declared whether he’ll return in 2018, but indications are that he’ll suit up for a 17th campaign after posting 11 sacks last year.
Alongside Peppers, other veterans populate the edge market, and while William Hayes may not be a household name, he’ll be a contributor for whichever team signs him. A stout run defender, Hayes is also capable of generating pressure despite managing only one sack in 2017. The Dolphins used Hayes on only 271 defensive snaps a season ago, and have since replaced him by acquiring fellow defensive end Robert Quinn from the Rams. Now that he’s entering his age-33 season, Hayes should come cheap, but will almost assuredly outplay his contract.
Nearly every other available pass rusher has some sort of flaw which will likely limit his market next week. Trent Murphy is only 27 years old and put up nine sacks in 2016, but he missed the entirety of the 2017 campaign with injury. Pernell McPhee, Alex Okafor, Junior Galette, and Derrick Shelby have also been plagued by health questions in recent seasons. And Adrian Clayborn famously registered the majority of his 2017 sacks (and 20% of his career sack total) in one game against overwhelmed Cowboys backup Chaz Green.
The two names that I keep coming back to are Aaron Lynch (49ers) and Jeremiah Attaochu (Chargers). Yes, Lynch has been suspended for substance abuse, struggled with his weight, and was reportedly in danger of being waived prior to last season. He’s also extremely young (he won’t turn 25 years old until Thursday) and ranked fifth in the league with 34 pass pressures as recently as 2015. Attaochu, a 25-year-old former second-round pick, also has youth on his side, and while he hasn’t quite flashed as much as Lynch, he’s also been buried on LA’s depth chart for much of his career.
Interior rushers are getting more respect in today’s NFL, but that still hasn’t translated to them being paid on the level of edge defenders — the 2018 franchise tag for defensive tackles, for example, is roughly $3MM cheaper than the tender for edge rushers. While the 2018 crop of interior defenders boasts some impressive top-end talent, none of the available players figure to earn a double-digit annual salary. Sheldon Richardson may have the best chance to do so, but Seattle determined he wasn’t worth a one-year cost of $13.939MM, so is any other club going to pay him $10MM per year? I’d guess he comes in closer to $9MM annually, which would still place him among the 25 highest-paid defensive tackles.
Dontari Poe will be an intriguing free agent case after setting for a one-year deal last offseason, but the most interesting battle among defensive tackles will take place Star Lotulelei and Muhammad Wilkerson, and I’m curious to see which player earns more on the open market. Both are former first-round picks, and it’s difficult to argue Wilkerson hasn’t been the more productive player — or, at least, reached higher highs — than Lotulelei. Wilkerson also won’t affect his next team’s compensatory pick formula given that he was released, but his off-field issues, which include a reported lack of effort and problems with coaches, could limit his appeal.
While Beau Allen and Denico Autry are potentially candidates to be overpaid based on their youth, there are bargains to be had at defensive tackle. Tom Johnson is 33 but he’s offered consistent pressure from the interior for years — his last contract was for three years and $7MM, so he shouldn’t cost much this time around. Haloti Ngata was injured in 2017 but plans to continue his career, and he can still stop the run. And Dominique Easley was outstanding as a 3-4 end in 2016 before missing last season with a torn ACL, meaning the former first-round pick could be a value play for any number of teams.Read more
Although there are a number of high-quality starting linebackers available in free agency this year, I predict most contracts signed by LBs over the next few weeks will come in lower that most expect. The linebacker market is relatively stagnant, and unless the player is a legitimate star or inking an extension with his original club, he’s usually disappointed with his annual value. The most expensive deal for an unrestricted free agent ‘backer who signed with a new team was Bruce Irvin‘s $9.25MM/year pact with the Raiders, and Irvin can almost be considered an edge rusher. After Irvin, it’s Danny Trevathan, whom the Bears signed for a $7MM annual value in 2016.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise if no linebacker listed above is able to top Trevathan’s two-year-old average, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t starting-caliber LBs on the market. Zach Brown, the poster boy for having to accept cheap contracts, is coming off another solid season, but is reportedly asking for top-three inside linebacker money. Good luck. Similarly, Demario Davis is looking for $8-10MM annually, while the Jets — who have interest in re-signing him — view him as a $3-4MM/year player.
Nigel Bradham and NaVorro Bowman should both come in around Trevathan’s $7MM average after posting excellent 2017 campaigns. While the Eagles would surely prefer to re-sign Bradham, the club’s dire cap situation may mean Bradham will hit the open market next Wednesday. Bowman, meanwhile, was traded from the 49ers to Raiders last season, and he seems like a good bet to stay with Oakland after new defensive coordinator Paul Guenther heaped lavish praise on the 29-year-old.
Top-to-bottom, the cornerback market is the deepest positional group on the defensive side of the ball. Need a No. 1 defensive back with experience in both man and zone? Trumaine Johnson is your guy. How about a top-end cornerback who, while admittedly up-and-down at times, has the ability to shut down opposing wide receivers? Malcolm Butler has you covered. A former first-round pick who has finally played up to his potential over the past two seasons? Take a look at Morris Claiborne. Or is a career journeyman who posted 10 excellent games last year more your speed? Look into Rashaan Melvin.
Slot cornerbacks are also prevalent in this year’s defensive back market, and while I ranked Aaron Colvin, T.J. Carrie, Patrick Robinson, and Nickell Robey-Coleman in order of my preference, they could each be plugged into a starting nickel package immediately. I originally though Robinson could land a disappointing deal given his age (31) and his track record of underwhelming play prior to 2017, but he’s already garnering interest from the Giants, Raiders, and Cardinals, so his market should allow him to reach at least $5MM annually. Colvin could garner even more than Robinson thanks his youth (26), and Ian Rapoport of NFL.com expects Colvin to have a “legit” market.
If teams are looking for a bargain at cornerback, they should target Ross Cockrell, whom the Steelers dealt to the Giants last year for a seventh-round pick. Cockrell has always been overlooked in the NFL, but he keeps producing results. In 2017, Cockrell finished first in Football Outsiders’ success rate, which measures cornerbacks on their ability to consistently stop opposing wideouts short of the sticks. In fact, Cockrell was one of only eight defenders who stopped a receiver short of a successful gain on over half their tackles a season ago, as FO’s Aaron Schatz recently tweeted, but the league consistently undervalues him and his skill-set.
The best free agent safety was taken off the board earlier today when the Rams used the franchise tag on Lamarcus Joyner, and the remaining market is extremely top-heavy. Eric Reid, Morgan Burnett, Tre Boston, and Kenny Vaccaro could all be in line for at least $5MM annually, but the rest of the class could struggle to find multi-year deals. Among the top-tier safeties, Vaccaro stands out as perhaps the most interesting name. A first-round pick in 2013, Vaccarro has posted three exemplary campaigns and two dreadful years; in 2017, Pro Football Focus ranked Vaccaro as the single-worst safety in the league among 87 qualifiers. But given his draft pedigree and his ability to man the slot, Vaccaro should land a solid deal.
While I like Reid and Burnett a bit more as players, it wouldn’t be a shock if Boston actually lands the largest contract. Reid and Burnett spend a lot of time close to the line of scrimmage, and both have been used as de factor linebackers from time to time. Boston, on the other hand, is a deep safety who can play coverage, and that repertoire is much more difficult to find on the open market. Similarly, Tyvon Branch has been great in coverage during his career with the Raiders, Chiefs, and Cardinals, so he could also see a nice pay bump next week.
After Branch, the crop of available safeties steeply drops off. Every other free agent we’ve listed above will be at at least 29 years old when the 2018 gets underway except for the Lions’ Tavon Wilson, and he was one of the NFL’s worst starting defensive backs last season. Veterans like Corey Graham or Ron Parker can still play as third safeties who see time in “big nickel” packages, but if you’re looking for a starting safety, you’ll want to bring in one of the top six defensive backs on the board.
The Rams were one of only two teams to express legitimate interest in acquiring CB Marcus Peters, and while Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay cannot yet talk about Peters or the trade specifically, Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star says it is no surprise that the Rams would be the team to land the former first-rounder. Although Peters is now eligible for a long-term extension and is likely to be on his best behavior anyway as a result, Paylor notes that McVay has quickly established a strong presence in LA, and he and DC Wade Phillips have full command and respect of the locker room. Paylor suggests that the Rams’ trade for Peters demonstrates their faith in their culture, and that culture, combined with the fact that they play on the West Coast — where Peters has long indicated he wants to be — made it a perfect fit.
Now let’s take a look at a few more NFC notes:
The Rams are hiring Holy Cross offensive coordinator Liam Coen as their assistant WRs coach, per Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports (via Twitter).
Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer takes a look at the Panthers‘ plans for the offseason, and he says Carolina will likely release DE Charles Johnson, though it is difficult to say whether Julius Peppers will be back or will call it a career. Person also does not expect Andrew Norwell to be back, so the Panthers will need to draft or sign a defensive end and a guard this offseason, and the hope is that whatever guard they acquire will also be capable of playing center.
The Saints have a few interesting calls to make with respect to their restricted free agents, as Larry Holder of the Times-Picayune observes. Willie Snead, Delvin Breaux, and Brandon Coleman are all RFAs, and although Holder does not make any specific predictions, it sounds as if Snead may be playing elsewhere in 2018, but Breaux and Coleman could be back.
Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press says Lions GM Bob Quinn has shown a few noticeable draft tendencies in his first several years on the job, including his apparent preferences to draft for need, to draft high-floor prospects (even if those prospects don’t have the potential to be stars), and to draft high-character players with track records at major collegiate programs. In light of that, Birkett predicts that Detroit will select Boston College DE Harold Landry in the first round of the 2018 draft.
We learned earlier today that it does not look like Anthony Hitchenswill be back with the Cowboys.
