Corry On The Franchise Tag
After a flurry of low-key but significant signings, the night has suddenly grown quiet. While we wait for the next piece of news concerning DeSean Jackson, let’s take a look at a typically excellent piece from Joel Corry of the National Football Post. Corry describes how the rules surrounding the use of the franchise tag have become a bit antiquated and do not necessarily reflect how the league has evolved. Some snippets are provided below, but the entire piece is certainly worth a read.
On how to avoid the issues created by “tight ends” like Jimmy Graham:
A new classification differentiating between tight ends who take a majority of their snaps in-line and those who don’t could be created. One possibility could be for tight ends that function similarly to wide receivers to receive a franchise tag with the average of the tight end and wide receiver franchise tags. This hybrid tag would be $9.593 million this year.
Personally, the only problem I would have with this would be that it seems to create a new issue of what players qualify as “tight ends that function similarly to wide receivers.” As the league continues to evolve, there will be fewer and fewer players who play the majority of snaps as the traditional in-line end, and those that do are unlikely to have to worry about the franchise tag anyway; they will simply be end-of-the-roster players summoned in certain short-yardage or max protect packages.
As such, the term “tight ends that function similarly to wide receivers” will increasingly become a redundant one; almost all of them will function similarly to wide receivers. At that point, the only justification for labeling certain players as a tight ends will be their body type (i.e. are they built more like Tony Gonzalez or Jacoby Jones?), which is certainly an undesirable outcome.
Nonetheless, Corry is certainly right in theory, and a hybrid tag containing a tiered compensation system based upon how much time a player spends as an in-line tight end and how much time they spend in the slot or split out wide is probably the best bet. And if a player spends little to no time as an in-line tight end, then teams will simply have to bite the bullet and pay them like the wideouts they are.
On separating offensive linemen by specific position:
Offensive line should be split to reflect the three main positions (center, guard and tackle). Typically, the franchise tag is composed of tackles, so guards and centers get a financial windfall when franchised. For example, New York Jets center Nick Mangold had the only center salary cap number over $7 million while the 2013 franchise tag for offensive linemen was $9.828 million.
This is a common sense proposal and it is baffling as to why the NFL has not adopted it yet. Browns center Alex Mack, who was given the transition tag by Cleveland this offseason–the transition tag, of course, has similar compensation rules to the franchise tag–will be paid like a top left tackle, not a top center, which is nonsensical.
On eliminating the July 15 deadline for multiyear contracts:
Prior to the 2006 CBA, there was a 30-day period immediately following the franchise tag designation deadline to agree to a long-term deal with a franchise player before what essentially amounted to a four-month signing moratorium began. During this four-month period, if a franchise player signed a long-term deal, his designation lasted for the duration of the contract, which prevented teams from franchising another player until then. The restriction didn’t apply for long-term deals signed after July 14.
The 2006 CBA eliminated the rules—which led to the signing moratorium—but created a July 15 deadline for long-term deals. In 2013, Broncos offensive tackle Ryan Clady was the only one of the eight players given a franchise tag that got a multi-year contract. The deadline has led to Cliff Avril, Dwayne Bowe and Jairus Byrd missing parts of training camp and the preseason over the last two years to either protest their franchise tags or as an attempt to minimize the risk of injury before regular season play began. The best of the past and current CBA rules on franchise tag signings can be achieved by abolishing the July 15 negotiating deadline.
No problems here. For a league that ostensibly would like to put the highest-quality product on the field and protect its players’ long-term security, one would think that an arbitrary deadline limiting the possibility of a long-term deal would be eliminated.
On decreasing franchise tag compensation
Franchise players rarely switch teams because the compensation on an unmatched offer sheet is two first round picks….The current CBA eliminated the highest restricted free agent tender, which required first and third round picks as compensation for unmatched offer sheets. This level of compensation may be more appropriate for franchise players than two first round picks.
Although I tend to agree with this proposal, and although it would create more excitement as teams would be more hesitant to use the tag and other teams that covet a certain player might be more willing to pony up a first- and third-round pick rather than two first-rounders, it’s not necessarily a proposal that impacts fairness to the player or improves the quality of the game.
PFR Originals: 3/24/14 – 3/30/14
Here’s the original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- The complete order of the 2014 NFL draft, which the Texans will kick off on May 8 with the first overall selection.
- A look at draft picks by team, with the Rams and the Jets leading the way with 12 picks each.
- A poll regarding the best value signing in free agency, with the Colts acquisition of receiver Hakeem Nicks taking the top spot with about 32% of the vote.
- Rory Parks wrote an excellent piece, synthesizing several recent articles and looking at the devaluation of the running back, fullback, and the in-line tight end in the modern NFL.
RBs, TEs, And The Modern NFL
A number of writers have taken a recent look at the evolution of the NFL and how that evolution affects certain positions. It is not news, of course, that as the league has become increasingly conducive to the passing game, teams are throwing the ball more than ever before. As a result, certain positions–most notably, the “classic” tight end, the fullback, and the running back–are becoming devalued.
Here at PFR, we focus primarily upon news related to player and personnel movement: free agency, the draft, hirings/firings, etc. Sometimes, then, it is nice to step back and take a look at the dynamics underlying that movement. For instance, one of the primary reasons the Lions wanted to keep Brandon Pettigrew was that he is one of the very few active tight ends who have value as both a receiver and blocker. And has anyone heard from Vonta Leach since he was released by the Ravens? He has long been one of the best fullbacks in the league, and surely has another year or two left in the tank, but there does not seem to be much room for him in today’s NFL. And after Knowshon Moreno‘s strong season in 2013, would the Broncos have been so willing to cast him aside even five years ago? Would the Dolphins have been able to land him with such a small contract? The answer to both questions is probably a resounding “no.”
Through the eyes of former “classic” tight end Ben Coates, who currently serves as the offensive coordinator for St. Augustine’s University, Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel examines the dearth of tight ends like Coates and Pettigrew, players just as capable of throwing a block as running a route. Coates believes that the reason for the absence of such players is twofold. First, teams are simply looking to capitalize on the nightmarish mismatches that players like Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski can offer. Second, the supply of “two-way” tight ends has been greatly reduced by the proliferation of spread offenses in college football, offenses that demand players built like traditional tight ends to run down seams and out-muscle smaller corners and less athletic linebackers.
As for running backs, Mike Klis of the Denver Post and OverTheCap.com take an in-depth look at the devaluation of the position, which is even more dramatic than one might think. In fact, contracts for running backs are most comparable to those being given out to kickers.
Of course, the contextual backdrop for all of this is the new CBA, which, as Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald points out, continues to squeeze the “middle class” of free agents. Tight ends who offer more as blockers than as receivers have probably been in that middle class–or lower–for some time, but running backs, even the good ones, are increasingly finding themselves in that caste. These days, when we hit what Beasley calls the “value spending” stage of free agency–that period of time after the most desirable players are signed and the league’s collective attention is turned towards the draft–teams can fill whatever holes they have at those positions on the cheap, or they can simply wait until the later rounds of the draft or for an undrafted free agent to fall into their laps.
All of the articles referenced above are worth a read, and they give you some useful context as you take a look at our posts, check for updates on your favorite team, and as you wonder why certain players remain unemployed.
2014 NFL Draft Picks By Team
Earlier today, we published the complete 2014 NFL draft order. In that list of 256 picks though, it may be a little tricky to find all your favorite team’s selections, so we’ve created a separate list which shows the breakdown of the 2014 draft picks by club. Here’s the complete list of 2014 NFL draft picks by team, sorted in order of total picks:
- New York Jets (12): 1st (18), 2nd (49), 3rd (80), 4th (104), 4th (115), 4th (137), 5th (154), 6th (195), 6th (209), 6th (210), 6th (213), 7th (233)
- San Francisco 49ers (12): 1st (30), 2nd (57), 3rd (70), 3rd (77), 3rd (100), 4th (106), 4th (129), 5th (150), 5th (170), 6th (180), 7th (243), 7th (245)
- St. Louis Rams (11): 1st (2), 1st (13), 2nd (41), 3rd (75), 4th (110), 6th (188), 6th (214), 7th (226), 7th (241), 7th (249), 7th (250)
- Houston Texans (10): 1st (1), 2nd (33), 3rd (65), 3rd (83), 4th (135), 6th (177), 6th (181), 6th (211), 7th (216), 7th (256)
- Minnesota Vikings (10): 1st (9), 1st (32), 3rd (72), 3rd (96), 5th (145), 6th (182), 6th (184), 7th (220), 7th (223), 7th (225)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (9): 1st (3), 2nd (39), 2nd (61), 3rd (93), 4th (114), 5th (144), 5th (159), 6th (205), 7th (222)
- Atlanta Falcons (9): 1st (6), 2nd (37), 3rd (68), 4th (103), 4th (139), 5th (147), 5th (168), 7th (253), 7th (255)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9): 1st (15), 2nd (46), 3rd (97), 4th (118), 5th (157), 5th (173), 6th (192), 6th (215), 7th (230)
- Dallas Cowboys (9): 1st (16), 2nd (34), 4th (119), 5th (146), 7th (231), 7th (238), 7th (248), 7th (251), 7th (254)
- Baltimore Ravens (9): 1st (17), 2nd (48), 3rd (79), 3rd (99), 4th (134), 4th (138), 5th (175), 6th (194), 7th (218)
- Green Bay Packers (9): 1st (21), 2nd (53), 3rd (85), 3rd (98), 4th (121), 5th (161), 5th (176), 6th (197), 7th (236)
- New England Patriots (9): 1st (29), 2nd (62), 4th (105), 4th (130), 4th (140), 6th (179), 6th (198), 6th (206), 7th (244)
- Seattle Seahawks (9): 2nd (45), 2nd (64), 4th (108), 4th (123), 4th (132), 5th (172), 6th (199), 6th (208), 7th (227)
- Oakland Raiders (8): 1st (5), 2nd (36), 3rd (81), 4th (116), 4th (107), 7th (219), 7th (235), 7th (247)
- Detroit Lions (8): 1st (10), 2nd (40), 3rd (76), 4th (133), 4th (136), 5th (158), 6th (189), 7th (229)
- Chicago Bears (8): 1st (14), 2nd (51), 3rd (82), 4th (117), 4th (131), 6th (183), 6th (191), 7th (246)
- Miami Dolphins (8): 1st (19), 2nd (63), 3rd (67), 4th (125), 5th (155), 5th (171), 6th (190), 7th (234)
- Cincinnati Bengals (8): 1st (24), 2nd (55), 3rd (88), 4th (111), 5th (164), 6th (212), 7th (239), 7th (252)
- Washington Redskins (8): 2nd (47), 3rd (66), 3rd (78), 4th (102), 5th (142), 6th (186), 7th (217), 7th (228)
- Buffalo Bills (7): 1st (4), 2nd (44), 3rd (73), 4th (109), 5th (153), 7th (221), 7th (237)
- New York Giants (7): 1st (12), 2nd (43), 3rd (74), 4th (113), 5th (152), 5th (174), 6th (187)
- Philadelphia Eagles (7): 1st (26), 2nd (42), 3rd (86), 4th (101), 5th (141), 5th (162), 7th (224)
- Arizona Cardinals (7): 1st (27), 2nd (52), 3rd (84), 3rd (91), 4th (120), 5th (160), 6th (196)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6): 1st (7), 2nd (38), 3rd (69), 5th (143), 5th (149), 6th (185)
- Cleveland Browns (6): 1st (8), 1st (22), 2nd (35), 3rd (71), 3rd (94), 4th (127)
- Tennessee Titans (6): 1st (11), 2nd (54), 4th (112), 4th (122), 5th (151), 6th (178)
- New Orleans Saints (6): 1st (20), 2nd (58), 4th (126), 5th (167), 5th (169), 6th (202)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6): 1st (23), 3rd (87), 4th (124), 5th (163), 6th (193), 6th (200)
- San Diego Chargers (6): 1st (25), 2nd (50), 3rd (89), 5th (165), 6th (201), 7th (240)
- Carolina Panthers (6): 1st (28), 2nd (60), 3rd (92), 4th (128), 5th (148), 6th (204)
- Denver Broncos (6): 1st (31), 2nd (56), 3rd (95), 5th (156), 6th (207), 7th (242)
- Indianapolis Colts (5): 2nd (59), 3rd (90), 5th (166), 6th (203), 7th (232)
Complete 2014 NFL Draft Order
The NFL officially announced the 32 compensatory picks for the 2014 draft earlier this week, which means the order for May’s draft has been set. We’re still a few weeks away from the draft getting underway on May 8, so picks could still change hands in trades right up until that date. If they do, we’ll be sure to update this list, which can be found anytime on the right-hand sidebar under “PFR Features.”
Here’s the complete 2014 NFL draft order:
Read more
Poll: Best Remaining Free Agent
It’s been an exciting and busy few days since the 2014 NFL league year officially opened Tuesday, and many of the top free agents have already relocated or re-signed with their respective teams. Also, marquee names released by clubs — like DeMarcus Ware and Darrelle Revis — have landed with top contenders priming for Super Bowl runs.
That being said, we’re interested in seeing who you think is the best remaining free agent. We’ll start with the players remaining from Luke Adams’ top 25 NFL free agents, then add players like Antonio Cromartie who were released by their teams and have yet to be signed.
Feel free to defend your vote in the comments section below.
Who Is The Best Remaining Free Agent?
-
Jared Allen 34% (601)
-
Alex Mack 33% (595)
-
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie 16% (281)
-
Henry Melton 9% (167)
-
Antonio Cromartie 3% (59)
-
Chris Clemons (S) 3% (50)
-
Other 2% (34)
Total votes: 1,787
PFR Originals: 3/3/14 – 3/9/14
Here’s the original content produced by the PFR staff this week:
- We recapped all the news surrounding franchise and transition tags.
- Here is a look the free agent market for offensive guards, headlined by Jon Asamoah and Geoff Schwartz.
- Luke Adams published PFR’s Top 25 Free Agents, with defensive end Michael Bennett topping the list.
- Peter Sowards took a look at the legal tampering period.
Making Sense Of Legal Tampering Period
As the “reports” stream in of X team showing interest in Y player, a few of the league’s most respected journalists have weighed in to put all the action in its proper context.
Alterraun Verner and Michael Johnson have six and seven teams calling their agents, respectively. But, as Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio notes, unless those teams are independently leaking to the media that interest, the players’ camps figure to be the source of the links — which is nothing out of the ordinary.
But just making a call to show interest is not exactly front-page news. “I would have thought 20 teams would call,” a league source said regarding Johnson. “Maybe more. Anyone can place a call.”
USA TODAY NFL writer Tom Pelissero paints the picture this way (via Twitter): “Any starting-caliber FA should have 9-10 teams express ‘interest.’ Of those, 3-4 are serious. Agent’s job to narrow to 1-2 by 4 p.m. Tuesday.”
Pelissero continues, saying teams aren’t working to give out info. Just because a team calls on a free agent doesn’t mean he’s a priority.
Andrew Brandt, former Packers VP and theMMQB writer, pokes fun at the free agency charade: “Time of year when NFL agents’ reputations precede them. When some say ‘Six teams are interested’ means ‘Two called, I called four.'”
For NFL Network reporter Albert Breer, the tampering period has turned out to be a poker game. “Can’t do a deal yet,” Breer tweets, “so be careful with your cards.”
2014 Top 25 NFL Free Agents
2014’s NFL free agents can’t officially sign with any team except their own until Tuesday at 3:00pm central time, but plenty of deals could be agreed upon in principle this weekend, now that the league’s so-called legal tampering window is open. So before this year’s top available players start getting locked up, let’s take a look at the top players of the 2014 free agent class.
This list would have looked a lot more impressive right after the Super Bowl, but various transactions in recent weeks have taken many of the top-tier options off the market. For instance, standout cornerback Brent Grimes, one of the best cornerbacks headed for unrestricted free agency, re-signed with the Dolphins on a four-year, $32MM deal. Star Panthers defensive end Greg Hardy was franchised by Carolina, and has accepted the one-year offer, meaning that while the two sides can continue negotiating a long-term contract, Hardy can’t sign an offer sheet with another team. Steelers linebacker Jason Worilds did the same with his transition tender, taking him off the market.
As for Saints tight end Jimmy Graham and Redskins edge defender Brian Orakpo, neither player has accepted his franchise tag yet, but we’re not including them on this list since the cost for another team to sign them (a long-term deal, plus two first-round picks) likely ensures that Graham and Orakpo aren’t going anywhere.
So with those caveats out of the way, let’s dive right in! Here are Pro Football Rumors’ top 25 NFL free agents for 2014, along with some predictions on how much they might earn and what teams should be in the mix:
Top 25 NFL free agents:
1. Michael Bennett (DE): With Hardy off the market, Bennett represents the top pass rusher available, having racked up 8.5 sacks and 65 quarterback pressures for the Seahawks last season. Veteran free agents like Justin Tuck and Jared Allen may have topped Bennett’s sack total in 2013, but Bennett is the only one on the right side of age 30, and he compiled his excellent numbers in just over 600 snaps. After settling for a one-year, prove-it deal with Seattle a year ago, Bennett proved it, and now he’s set to cash in with a much larger payday. The Seahawks, Bears, and 49ers have been mentioned as potential suitors for the 28-year-old, but if he’s looking to cash in with the biggest offer available after winning a Super Bowl, Bennett could be a fit for teams like the Raiders and Jaguars, who have a ton of cap space and a glaring need at defensive end. In that event, Bennett could be looking at a long-term deal worth about $9-10MM per year.
Signed: Seattle Seahawks. Four years, $28.5MM, $10MM fully guaranteed.
2. Eugene Monroe (OT): There are several intriguing left tackles available this offseason, and Monroe looks like the best of the bunch. The Ravens tackle turns 27 next month, and has ranked sixth, 15th, and 12th in the last three years among all tackles, according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics. In other words, he’s still in his prime, and has already proven himself to be extremely effective and consistent. The Ravens have been trying to bring Monroe back and won’t give up that fight even if he reaches the open market, but they’ll face stiff competition from clubs like the Dolphins and Cardinals. Monroe is said to be seeking $10MM per year, and considering the horror show that was Miami’s offensive line in 2013 (both on and off the field), I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dolphins pay that kind of money to ensure they have stability at left tackle for 2014 and beyond.
Signed: Baltimore Ravens. Five years, $37.5MM, $19MM fully guaranteed.
3. Jairus Byrd (S): As Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor showed the world in last month’s Super Bowl, safeties have become increasingly important in today’s NFL as a way to disrupt an offense’s passing game. And there are few safeties in the league more dynamic than Byrd, who has grabbed 12 interceptions and forced eight fumbles in his last three seasons in Buffalo. The Bills continue to say they’re making an effort to re-sign their playmaking safety, but I get the sense that Byrd is eager to test the market, particularly with no franchise tag to restrict him this season. The Falcons, Colts, and Eagles should be among the suitors to watch, but I suspect Byrd may reunite with former Bills defensive coordinator Mike Pettine in Cleveland. I also think we could see Byrd become the league’s highest-paid safety by annual average value, surpassing Eric Berry‘s $8.34MM per year.
Signed: New Orleans Saints. Six years, $54MM, $18.3MM fully guaranteed.
4. Jared Veldheer (OT): Veldheer, who is a couple months younger than Monroe, has a strong case for the top left tackle in 2014’s free agent class, but a torn triceps limited the Raiders standout to just five games last year, so we haven’t seen him excel for a full season since 2012. Still, Veldheer returned near the end of 2013, and while his last few games weren’t exceptional, they at least showed that he was healthy, meaning he should do well in free agency. And while the same teams I mentioned as Monroe suitors will kick the tires on Veldheer, it’d be a major upset to see him sign anywhere but Oakland. After all, no team currently has more 2014 cap space than the Raiders, who can afford to lock up Veldheer to a lucrative five- or six-year contract.
Signed: Arizona Cardinals. Five years, $35MM, $10.5MM fully guaranteed.
5. Michael Johnson (DE): While Bennett tops the wish lists of teams in desperate need of pass-rushing, clubs looking for a more all-around end might target Johnson instead. The longtime Bengal is an excellent run-stopping end, having ranked behind only New England’s Rob Ninkovich last season in Pro Football Focus’ run grades for 4-3 defensive ends. Johnson isn’t likely to match the 11.5 sacks he posted in 2012 again, but that performance at least showed that he’s very capable of rushing the quarterback as well. The Eagles are said to be eyeing Johnson, who could draw interest as both a 4-3 end and a 3-4 outside linebacker. My guess though is that Johnson lands in Minnesota, with new head coach Mike Zimmer. A deal in the neighborhood of four years, $36MM for Johnson wouldn’t be out of the question.
Signed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Six years, $43.75MM, $16MM fully guaranteed.
6. Alex Mack (C): The only player on our list of free agents to receive the franchise or transition tag, Mack belongs here because his situation means teams will still pursue him. Having received the transition tag, Mack can sign an offer sheet elsewhere, but the Browns will have the right to match it. That means there’s a very good chance the standout center returns to Cleveland, either on a long-term deal or simply at his one-year, $10MM+ tender. But before that happens, expect the Colts, Rams, Falcons, and Giants to at least kick the tires on Mack. The Raiders and Buccaneers have been cited as possible suitors as well.
Signed: Cleveland Browns. Five years, $42MM, $18MM fully guaranteed.
7. Aqib Talib (CB): Arguably the best pure cover corner available this year, Talib earned his first Pro Bowl berth in 2013 and snagged four interceptions for the Patriots, setting himself up nicely for free agency. His departure would leave New England with a hole at corner, so I expect the Pats to continue discussing a new deal for him. But if and when he hits the open market, Talib could receive interest from other teams in need of secondary help, such as the Vikings, Chargers, Redskins, Bills, and Panthers. Talib won’t get Darrelle Revis money, but it’s fair to assume his new deal will approach the ballpark of $9-10MM per year corners like Johnathan Joseph, Brandon Flowers, and Leon Hall.
Signed: Denver Broncos. Six years, $57MM, $11.5MM fully guaranteed.
8. Alterraun Verner (CB): While many teams will prefer Talib’s upside, there’s a lot to be said for Verner’s consistency and durability. Since entering the league in 2010, Verner has never placed outside the top 25 in Pro Football Focus’ cornerback rankings. On the other hand, he’s never ranked inside the top 10. Verner isn’t elite, but he’s an effective No. 1 corner, and he’ll get paid like one this offseason. A four-year deal that surpasses Brent Grimes‘ $32MM seems reasonable, and I could see the Rams being a major player in the Verner sweepstakes if the Titans don’t lock him up.
Signed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Four years, $25.5MM, $8MM fully guaranteed.
9. T.J. Ward (S): The third-best safety in 2013, according to Pro Football Focus’ grades, Ward lacks the range and the playmaking ability of Byrd, but is perhaps the league’s best strong safety against the run. Ward is just 27 years old and can be an anchor for a secondary, even if he’s not going to pile up interceptions or highlight-reel plays. If he and the Browns have mutual interest in a new deal, the two sides should work something out, since Cleveland has more than enough cap flexibility to keep him. Otherwise, the Colts and Eagles will be teams to watch, and I could see the Ravens, Panthers, Saints, and Packers mulling an offer for Ward if he’s within their respective budgets. Contracts for safeties typically don’t break the bank, so if there aren’t a ton of teams in the mix, Ward could potentially be had for an annual salary between $6-7MM.
Signed: Denver Broncos. Four years, $22.5MM, $7MM fully guaranteed.
10. Lamarr Houston (DE): As is the case with Veldheer, it’s a little surprising not to see Houston already locked up by the Raiders, who have an abundance of cap room this offseason. Still, perhaps the club wants the official free agent period to set the market for its free agents, to avoid overpaying to keep them around. Houston, like Michael Johnson, is a run-stopping defensive end, with a limited pass rush impact — his six sacks in 2013 were a career high. That ability to stuff the run is a valuable commodity though, particularly on teams that can get their pass rush from other spots. Houston may not receive quite as big a deal as Johnson, but I could see him landing $15MM+ in guaranteed money. And the Raiders look like the best fit.
Signed: Chicago Bears. Five years, $35MM, $8.95MM fully guaranteed.
11. Branden Albert (OT): Although Kansas City seemingly doesn’t have much interest in re-signing him, Albert has recorded positive grades, according to Pro Football Focus, for four consecutive seasons and ranks just behind Monroe and Veldheer as this year’s top free agent left tackles. Albert is likely near the top of the Dolphins’ wish list, but it sounds like the Cardinals will be the club making the strongest push for the longtime Chief. I’ll speculate that Albert ends up signing a four-year deal in Arizona for about $8-9MM per season.
Signed: Miami Dolphins. Five years, $47MM, $20MM fully guaranteed.
12. Hakeem Nicks (WR): Nicks certainly wasn’t the highest-producing wide receiver among this year’s free agent class, but it’s hard to argue that any other receiver has a better combination of size, speed, and upside. The team that signs Nicks will be hoping that he recaptures his 2010-11 form, while angling to pay for his 2012-13 production. That could result in Nicks signing at a slight discount — perhaps a one-year, make-good deal, or even a longer-term deal in the $7-8MM per year range, rather than the $10MM+ he would have earned with a solid 2013. If Nicks wants to rebuild his value with a contender, the Patriots, Panthers, Colts, or Broncos might be a fit. Otherwise, teams like the Jets, Lions, Raiders, and Browns should all be very much in the mix.
Signed: Indianapolis Colts. One year, $3.5MM, $2.25MM fully guaranteed.
13. Eric Decker (WR): Based on his numbers in recent years, Decker figures to land a larger free agent contract than Nicks, but there will be question marks about how much of his production can be directly linked to the Broncos’ explosive offense. After all, Decker has just spent two years with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball and Demaryius Thomas drawing the secondary’s attention. Still, an annual salary in the $8-10MM range seems likely, and Decker should be able to secure $15-20MM in guaranteed money. The Browns look like the best fit to me, but the Broncos, Jets, Raiders, Chiefs, and Colts could be involved as well.
Signed: New York Jets. Five years, $36.25MM, $15MM fully guaranteed.
14. Jason Hatcher (DT): While Hatcher had one of the best 2013 campaigns of any of this year’s free agents, his age (he turns 32 in July) may limit his market somewhat. Still, it’s hard to argue with those ’13 numbers — having moved to nose tackle for the Cowboys, Hatcher posted a career-best 11 sacks, and ranks as the NFL’s eighth-best defensive tackle, according to Pro Football Focus’ metrics. Since Hatcher became a starter in 2011, in fact, he’s ranked among the top 10 at his position each season, according to PFF. A four- or five-year deal may not be realistic for Hatcher. Or if he signs one, it’ll be heavily frontloaded with guaranteed money, making it easier to get out of later on. Given Dallas’ lack of cap flexibility, it looks like Hatcher will head elsewhere. The Buccaneers, Vikings, Falcons, Packers, Steelers, and Dolphins are all potential fits, to varying degrees.
Signed: Washington Redskins. Four years, $27.5MM, $10.5MM fully guaranteed.
15. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (CB): The Broncos cornerback hinted leading up to the Super Bowl that he might consider retirement after the season, but he has rightly come to his sense since then. Rodgers-Cromartie will turn 28 next month, so he’s still in his prime, and he’s coming off one of the better seasons of his career. His inconsistent track record may scare off some teams, but 2013 did a lot to rebuild DRC’s value, and he should receive long-term offers in the ballpark of at least $7-8MM per year. The same teams I mentioned when discussing Talib and Verner should kick the tires on Rodgers-Cromartie.
Signed: New York Giants. Five years, $35MM, $11.98MM fully guaranteed.
16. Randy Starks (DT): It may seem like Starks has been around forever, and that perception isn’t totally unwarranted — he entered the league in 2004, after all. Still, his early start means he’ll still only be 30 years old for most of the 2014 season, so his age shouldn’t be a major red flag for interested teams this offseason. Starks has traditionally been better at rushing the passer than stopping the run, but he was excellent in both facets of the game in 2013. The Dolphins have reportedly not made an offer to Starks or fellow free agent lineman Paul Soliai, and I’d be shocked if the team kept both players. If Starks wants to leave an organization that has been plagued by dysfunction in recent months, possible destinations include Minnesota, Chicago, Tennessee, Houston, and Atlanta.
Signed: Miami Dolphins. Two years, $10MM, $5MM fully guaranteed.
17. Donte Whitner (S): Whitner didn’t like his ranking in NFL.com’s list of 2014 free agents, but we don’t have him 31 spots higher because we want to get in his good books. Coming off back-to-back Pro Bowl seasons, Whitner was one of the league’s best safeties in pass coverage last season, limiting yards after the catch and grabbing a pair of interceptions. At age 28, Whitner should have plenty of productive years left in him, and ranks behind only T.J. Ward among 2014’s free agent strong safeties. A contract that includes $10MM+ in guaranteed money seems within reach.
Signed: Cleveland Browns. Four years, $28MM, $11MM fully guaranteed.
18. Vontae Davis (CB): Only two cornerbacks in the NFL graded better than Davis in 2013, according to Pro Football Focus: Darrelle Revis, who is making $16MM per year, and Brent Grimes, who just signed for $8MM per year at age 30. Davis, who is only 25, doesn’t have the track record of either of those players, but given the elite company, it’s not hard to see why he and the Colts have yet to reach an agreement despite mutual interest. Indianapolis has a good deal of cap flexibility and I expect the two sides to work something out eventually, but the price for Davis may be a little higher than the Colts were expecting. I’d anticipate a four- or five-year contract that slightly exceeds Grimes’ annual average salary.
Signed: Indianapolis Colts. Four years, $36MM, $15MM fully guaranteed.
19. Karlos Dansby (ILB): The only linebacker on our list, Dansby would rank even higher if he wasn’t set to turn 33 in November. However, he certainly didn’t show any signs of falling off in 2013, racking up 121 tackles, 6.5 sacks, and a career-high four interceptions, including two for touchdowns. Dansby also ranked fifth among inside linebackers, according to Pro Football Focus, grading exceptionally well in pass coverage. The all-around standout has expressed a strong desire to return to the Cardinals, but expect the Titans, Vikings, Browns, and Dolphins to be among the teams making inquiries.
Signed: Cleveland Browns. Four years, $24MM, $12MM fully guaranteed.
20. Sam Shields (CB): Coming off a 2013 season in which he ranked as a perfectly average cornerback, according to Pro Football Focus, Shields has a few more question marks than a few other corners on this list. But there are few teams that question his potential to be a strong No. 1 cornerback in the NFL. At age 26, Shields has plenty of upside, and his reps will likely point to his excellent peripheral stats in 2012 during negotiations. Although Shields may not receive quite as large a contract as some of the players ahead of him on this list, a team that misses out on those top options and locks up the Packers CB at $6-7MM per year should be pretty happy.
Signed: Green Bay Packers. Four years, $39MM, $12.5MM fully guaranteed.
21. Linval Joseph (DT): Joseph’s first few years in the NFL have been solid, albeit not exceptional. As a run-stopper, he may never fill up the stat sheet, but he’s been effective in a part-time role with the Giants and is young enough (25) that there’s plenty of room for further improvement. While teams in need of short-term help at defensive tackle will likely target Hatcher or Starks, Joseph could be a more worthwhile investment for a club looking to add a long-term piece to its defensive line. If he doesn’t return to the Giants, Joseph could be a fit for the division-rival Redskins, or many of the teams mentioned as suitors for Hatcher and Starks.
Signed: Minnesota Vikings. Five years, $31.25MM, $12.5MM fully guaranteed.
22. Rodger Saffold (OL): Saffold is one of this year’s more interesting free agent cases. Since starting all 16 games at left tackle for the Rams in his rookie season, the 25-year-old hasn’t appeared in more than 12 games for the club due to various injuries. Health will be a concern for any interested suitors, but Saffold’s flexibility to play either guard or tackle has a lot of appeal, as does his youth. The Rams appear to be making an effort to re-sign the offensive lineman, but St. Louis is looking at him as a guard, while other clubs may be willing to pay him like a tackle. Saffold and Anthony Collins could ultimately make very appealing Plan Bs for teams who miss out on the top tier of left tackles.
Signed: St. Louis Rams. Five years, $31.347MM, $11MM fully guaranteed.
23. Arthur Jones (DT): Jones and the Ravens seemed resigned to the fact that the free-agent-to-be will draw enough interest on the open market that Baltimore won’t be able to bring him back. And that interest will be warranted. Playing primarily as a part-timer on his rookie contract, Jones hasn’t accumulated a whole lot of mileage, but has exhibited plenty of potential when he’s played. In 529 snaps for the Ravens in 2013, Jones recorded a +15.7 PFF grade, performing very well against the run while also compiling 25 quarterback pressures. A multiyear deal worth in the neighborhood of $6MM per year seems about right for the 27-year-old.
Signed: Indianapolis Colts. Five years, $33MM, $10MM fully guaranteed.
24. Everson Griffen (DE): Griffen didn’t get a real chance to shine in Minnesota during his rookie contract, starting just one game in four seasons with Jared Allen and Brian Robison firmly entrenched as the team’s ends. Still, even as a part-timer often not playing his natural position, Griffen flashed solid potential, recording 13.5 sacks over the last two seasons. If Allen leaves Minnesota, the Vikings could re-sign Griffen and plug him in as a starter on the end. Griffen also figures to draw interest from other suitors though, including perhaps the Raiders, Buccaneers, Bengals, Jaguars, Seahawks, and Falcons.
Signed: Minnesota Vikings. Five years, $42.5MM, $19.8MM fully guaranteed.
25. Golden Tate (WR): Tate’s numbers in Seattle weren’t exceptional, but considering how little the Seahawks relied on their passing offense, a line of 64 receptions, 898 yards, and five touchdowns in 2013 doesn’t look bad at all. Tate, whose explosiveness can also be deployed on punt returns, could thrive in a more pass-heavy system, making teams like the Colts and Patriots ideal fits for him. Clubs like the Jets, Browns, Ravens, and Raiders may be willing to pay more though, depending on how the wide receiver market plays out. A $6MM annual salary sounds about right for Tate, and given his upside and age (25), that may turn into a bargain.
Signed: Detroit Lions. Five years, $31MM, $10.5MM fully guaranteed.
Just missed the cut:
- Jared Allen (DE)
- Chris Clemons (S)
- Anthony Collins (OT)
- Henry Melton (DT)
- Geoff Schwartz (OG)
- Paul Soliai (DT)
- Charles Tillman (CB)
- Justin Tuck (DE)
OverTheCap.com was used in the creation of this post.
Free Agent Market For Guards
Very few NFL teams will carry over four or five offensive line starters from 2013 to 2014. While many clubs will attempt to fill their holes with internal alternatives, or by selecting players from what’s considered a very deep draft class, plenty will turn to free agency.
The Dolphins, Broncos, Browns, Rams, Bucs, Falcons, Chiefs, Rams, Texans, and Vikings are among the teams who could need to replace starting guards who will depart as free agents or cap casualties. The Seahawks, Bills, Colts, Buccaneers, and Jaguars may not have the same number of pending free agents, but they may be in the market for an upgrade after subpar guard performance on one side or the other last season. Meanwhile, the Chargers, Giants, and Jets would be on the lookout for upgrades even if they didn’t have prospective free agents, which they do.
We just mentioned more than half of the NFL’s 32 teams, and it’s fair to assume that several other clubs could get involved in the free agent market as well, as they look to add bench depth at the guard position. With so many teams eyeing stop-gap or long-term solutions, and only a small number of top-tier options available, it should be an interesting free agent period. Let’s check out some of the players expected to hit the open market on March 11….
First tier:
Two of the four guards we have listed as first-tier options, Jon Asamoah and Geoff Schwartz, come from the same team, and the Chiefs will likely try to keep at least one of the two. If only half the duo returns to Kansas City, I’d expect Asamoah to be the one leaving town — he lost his starting job toward the end of last season, despite a solid overall performance.
The third top-tier guard on this year’s market is the Panthers’ Travelle Wharton, who has hinted recently that he might consider retirement. Assuming he does keep playing, Wharton has suggested that he’d love to return to Carolina, but the Panthers don’t have a ton of cap flexibility, and considering the lack of elite guards available in free agency, he should receive plenty of interest.
As the longtime starting left guard of the defending AFC champions, Zane Beadles should also do well on the open market. Beadles recorded a subpar grade in 2013, according to Pro Football Focus, but his relative youth (he’s 27) and a strong 2012 should earn him a nice payday.
Second tier:
Chad Rinehart‘s was excellent for the Bills in his only full season (2011), but has never appeared in more than 11 games in any of his other four NFL seasons, so there may be question marks about how he’ll hold up as a fulltime starter. Meanwhile, Kevin Boothe‘s advanced numbers fell off a little last season, along with the rest of the Giants’ line, but with a set position and perhaps a new situation, there’s no reason to think he won’t provide solid production in 2014.
Shelley Smith and Willie Colon each excel in a particular area — run blocking for Smith and pass blocking for Colon. Unfortunately, they can’t maintain that level of production across the board, with Smith’s pass blocking and Colon’s penalty problems both acting as potential liabilities. Still, in the right offense, they could be effective starters.
Many of the other second-tier options have red flags in one area or another. Brian Waters remains productive, but his age and health mean he shouldn’t necessarily be relied upon as a 16-game starter, if he continues his career. There are also injury concerns with Mike Pollak, who has missed 23 games over the last two seasons due to injuries. Shawn Lauvao has yet to post a positive PFF grade in any of his four NFL seasons, though he’s still young enough to have some upside. As for Wade Smith, there’s certainly something to be said for a player who has started every game for four straight seasons, but he’s coming off a down year for Houston in 2013.
Finally, the wild cards of this group are Richie Incognito and John Jerry. Jerry, who is three years younger than Incognito, and wasn’t as tainted by the Ted Wells report, will have an easier time finding work, but it’s hard to predict how much his involvement in last year’s bullying scandal will affect his value. In any case, it’s safe to assume neither player will return to Miami.
The rest:
Teams aren’t likely to find an elite starter amongst this group, but there’s still some appeal to a player like Garrett Reynolds, who has recorded positive grades in about a full season’s worth of snaps over the last two seasons, or Charlie Johnson, who has started all but six games in the last six years even though his performance generally ranks below average. Chris Williams, Paul McQuistan, and Mike McGlynn are among the other available options coming off subpar performances as starters.
Geoff Hangartner, Eben Britton, Dylan Gandy, and Garry Williams, and Jamon Meredith are a few of the other prospective free agent guards likely to be signed as backups for 2014.
Previously:
Free Agent Market For Quarterbacks
Free Agent Market For Running Backs
Free Agent Market For Wide Receivers
Free Agent Market For Tight Ends
Free Agent Market For Offensive Tackles
Free Agent Market For Centers
