Free Agent Stock Watch: Arik Armstead
While teams will surely apply the franchise tag to a number of the best pass rushers on the market, one has seemed to receive much less buzz than warranted. 49ers defensive lineman Arik Armstead failed to live up to his first-round selection early in his career but has quietly become a difference-maker along the San Francisco front four.
In free agency rankings and previews Jadeveon Clowney, Shaquil Barrett, and Yannick Ngakoue have 
all consistently ranked ahead of the 17th overall selection in the 2015 Draft. However, there is a pretty compelling argument that Armstead is the best player of the bunch.
Few experts would argue that Armstead wasn’t the most productive of the group last season. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Armstead was the 6th highest graded edge defender last season of the 107 qualified players. Clowney ranked 20th, Barrett ranked 25th, and Ngakoue ranked 36th. Barrett accrued a league-leading 19.5 sacks (Armstead recorded 10, Ngakoue had 8, and Clowney just 3), but recorded fewer hurries than Armstead, which tend to be more predictive of future sack production.
It seems that most experts view Armstead as a one-hit-wonder, only producing in his contract year, but the evidence is a bit more complicated. With the exception of the 2016 season (when he missed 8 games with injury), Armstead has always graded out by PFF as a solid defensive lineman (receiving grades of 79.0, 70.1, and 74.8 in 2015, 2017, and 2018) who was particularly effective against the run. There’s no denying that Armstead reached another level of productivity in 2019, but it appears a bit disingenuous to say it came entirely out of nowhere.
Most impressive of all, even as Armstead built his reputation on run-stopping ability, he has generated hurries at the greatest rate of the group, not in 2019, but over his entire career. Armstead has generated a hurry on over 9.2% of his pass-rush snaps over his career, according to PFF, none of the other three have surpassed 7.8%.
Of course, the 49ers have been especially baron along the defensive line (aside from DeForest Buckner) for most of Armstead’s career. Obviously the additions of Nick Bosa and Dee Ford this offseason turned one of the team’s previous weaknesses into its greatest strength. But, some evaluators attribute Armstead’s jump to the improvement in his teammates more than a true change in him as a player.
Injuries, which were problems for Armstead in his second and third NFL seasons, have been a nonfactor over the previous two seasons and especially this season-when he played on 912 snaps between the regular season and playoffs as a part of the 49ers NFC Championship run.
At just 26 years of age, Armstead, an Oregon alum, appears poised to enter his prime of productivity, but will the market view him that way? Or will teams remain skeptical that his elite production in 2019 is sustainable without an elite supporting cast alongside him?
The top of the market for a player like Armstead would likely approach Frank Clark‘s 5-year, $104MM contract with the Chiefs last offseason, on the flipside, Armstead’s floor is probably around his teammate Dee Ford‘s 4-year, $85MM deal. Reports have suggested the 49ers want to resign Armstead, but limited on cap space following their Super Bowl loss to Kansas City, the team will have to shuffle some money around to make a new deal feasible (ironically, a new deal for Armstead could result in the release or trade of Ford).
If they are unable to resign him, San Francisco, already short of draft capital, could very likely recoup a strong return for Armstead via a tag-and-trade move, but the team would need to clear the necessary cap space to apply the franchise tag before they made any move.
Since most focus remains on Clowney, Ngakoue, and Barrett, few rumors have tied Armstead to any other teams, but don’t be surprised if teams seem to evaluate Armstead at the same level (or maybe even above) some of the other options.
49ers In Marquise Goodwin Trade Talks
Kyle Shanahan did not make it a secret he would entertain Marquise Goodwin trade talks, and the fourth-year 49ers coach is moving forward on this front.
The 49ers have discussed the veteran wide receiver in potential deals, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (on Twitter). The three-year, $18.85MM extension Goodwin signed in 2018 contains just more than $10MM through 2021, and with all of the salary non-guaranteed, the 29-year-old speedster may not be long for San Francisco.
Despite Dante Pettis falling out of San Francisco’s rotation during its NFC championship season, Goodwin was still a non-factor for most of the slate. The former Olympic long jumper broke through in his first season with the 49ers — a 56-catch, 962-yard 2017 campaign — to earn his extension but fell behind younger 49er cogs Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne last season. Goodwin caught 12 passes for 186 yards and a touchdown in 2019. A knee injury moved Goodwin to IR in December.
With the 49ers trying to keep Arik Armstead, Goodwin’s contract would be one to move. The 49ers can save nearly $4MM by jettisoning the deal. San Francisco, which currently carries less than $14MM in cap space, has also not ruled out bringing back 2019 trade acquisition Emmanuel Sanders. Slot receiver Trent Taylor also due back in 2020, further minimizing Goodwin’s role with the team going forward.
The 29-year-old wideout averaged 17.2 yards per reception in both the 2017 and ’18 seasons, however, and could well be an intriguing auxiliary piece for a team with less depth at receiver. With the 49ers having until March 12 to use their franchise tag on Armstead, that looks like the timetable for the Goodwin talks.
Minor NFL Transactions: 3/5/20
Today’s minor moves:
Atlanta Falcons
- Signed: OL John Wetzel
Denver Broncos
- Released: DL Billy Winn
- Waived: CB Horace Richardson
San Francisco 49ers
- Tendered as exclusive rights free agents: OL Daniel Brunskill, TE Ross Dwelley, CB Emmanuel Moseley, QB Nick Mullens, RB Jeff Wilson
49ers To Pick Up K’Waun Williams’ Option
K’Waun Williams‘ 49ers career is set to extend into a fourth season. The team intends to pick up the cornerback’s 2020 option, according to Matt Barrows of The Athletic (on Twitter). They made the same transaction last March and saw Williams continue to be one of the best slot corners in the game.
The 49ers extended Williams in 2017. Said extension calls for a mere $2.15MM base salary in 2020. While this could be a bridge to another deal, the 49ers have their slot man under contract at a bargain rate for the time being.
Pro Football Focus graded Williams as the league’s No. 7 overall corner last season, and both he and Richard Sherman (No. 1 on that list) are set to reprise their roles next season. The 49ers also have younger talents Emmanuel Moseley and Ahkello Witherspoon under contract. Williams, 28, signed with the 49ers in 2017 after a tumultuous Browns tenure and has operated as a key defender throughout Kyle Shanahan’s tenure.
The Williams move comes a day after the 49ers exercised fellow 2017 free agent addition Kyle Juszczyk‘s 2020 option. While the 49ers have bigger decisions to make this offseason — most notably involving pass rusher Arik Armstead — they are taking care of some key role players this week.
Latest On Tom Brady, 49ers
The Tom Brady rumor mill has been buzzing with drips of news and gobs of speculation. Some of that theorizing has led some to connect the dots between the Patriots’ legendary passer and the NFC champs. However, at this time, there are no indications that the 49ers are interested in replacing Jimmy Garoppolo with Brady, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (on Twitter). 
Fresh off of a Super Bowl appearance, the 49ers are pretty happy with Jimmy G, as Rapoport notes. RapSheet doesn’t feel that the possibility can be ruled out, but at this point, there hasn’t been much to substantiate the talk.
Brady has done an excellent job of keeping things on the hush so far, given the circumstances. That’s one of the many traits that he’s learned from longtime coach Bill Belichick (the Pats, predictably, have also kept things quiet, outside of recent word that they are still in regular contact with the quarterback). At this point, it’s tough to predict how things might play out. The Chargers, Titans, and Raiders all profile as logical destinations for the league’s biggest star. The Colts and Giants, it seems, are not in the mix. Right now, it sounds like we can put the Niners into that second group.
On the surface, it’d be a logical match. If the Niners had Brady under center in February, it’s possible that they would be the champs. For Brady, signing with the Niners would put him in a major market with a ready-to-win defense. The Niners pondered the possibility of luring Brady away from the Patriots two years ago, too – when that didn’t happen, they traded for his backup instead.
Right now, it just doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Based on what we’re hearing (or, the lack of what insiders are hearing, concretely), the 49ers seem comfortable enough with Garoppolo as their quarterback moving forward.
Mike Adams Retires From NFL
Mike Adams is calling it a career. On Wednesday morning, the former Pro Bowl safety announced his retirement on NFL Network (Twitter link via Tom Pelissero). 
Adams leaves the sport after 16 seasons and 228 games played. The 38-year-old suited up for the 49ers, Browns, Broncos, Colts, Panthers, and, most recently, the Texans, over the course of his career. In 2014 and 2015, his first two seasons in Indy, he stepped into the limelight with back-to-back Pro Bowl nods. Remarkably, he did it in his age 33 and 34 seasons.
Eventually, Father Time caught up with Adams. After spending two seasons as a Panthers starter with snaps at both safety spots, the Panthers allowed him to walk following the 2018 season.
Adams’ 228 games played ranks him third all-time among NFL safeties, slotting him ahead of John Lynch, Brian Dawkins, and other football legends. We here at PFR wish Adams the best in retirement.
49ers, Arik Armstead In Extension Talks
Faced with a genuine possibility of losing one of their five first-round defensive linemen in free agency, the 49ers are not giving up on keeping Arik Armstead in the fold.
The team holds barely $13MM in cap space and is in the early stages of talks with George Kittle and DeForest Buckner on what will be mammoth extensions. However, the 49ers still want to extend Armstead. And they are working on a deal, Josina Anderson of ESPN.com tweets.
Armstead completed a dominant contract year, posting a team-high 10 sacks, and was productive in the playoffs for a 49ers team that held a fourth-quarter lead in Super Bowl LIV. But the 2015 first-round pick was not exactly a dependable asset during his first four seasons, totaling nine sacks from 2015-18 and missing 18 games due to injury in that span.
While Nick Bosa looms as a surefire extension candidate, he is under contract through 2023. An extension for the 26-year-old Armstead pact may not overlap with a future Bosa accord. As for the 49ers of 2020, they have both Jimmie Ward and Emmanuel Sanders as free agents — at positions featuring less talent than San Francisco features up front. A Dee Ford release would save the 49ers $9MM-plus, while cutting Jerick McKinnon would add $4MM to that. If the 49ers find a taker for Marquise Goodwin, they could save an additional $3MM.
An Armstead re-up would still be tricky and hamstring the 49ers’ offseason efforts. A franchise tag in the $18MM vicinity would pose a bigger impediment, so an extension makes the most sense. But with Chris Jones, Matt Judon, Bud Dupree and possibly Yannick Ngakoue set to be franchise-tagged, it may be difficult for the 49ers to convince Armstead to sign a deal before seeing the interest that would come his way on a thinning pass rusher market.
Latest On 49ers, George Kittle
The tight end market has not moved much over the past half-decade. The Patriots refused to give Rob Gronkowski a new deal, and other teams did not move their lower-profile tight ends too far past the future Hall of Famer on the position’s salary spectrum.
Jimmy Graham‘s $10MM-per-year pact, which the Packers seem likely to move on from, currently tops the tight end market. But the 49ers will be tasked with modernizing this. They are set to meet with George Kittle‘s representation at the Combine and have already begun preliminary extension discussions, Matt Barrows of The Athletic notes (subscription required).
Kittle’s agent, Jack Bechta, said (via Barrows) he will proceed with considerable patience in negotiating this deal with the 49ers. The uncertain CBA status supports that strategy, but Kittle should be expected to enter the 2020 season with a contract far more lucrative than any tight end’s current deal.
Coming off two dominant seasons, the two-time Pro Bowler is primed to raise the bar for tight ends considerably. The 49ers are prepared for this. Buzz about near-future cap spikes being greater than they were under the 2011 CBA could well affect this situation. The prospect of free agent tight ends Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper and Eric Ebron seeing big deals figure to help Kittle take the market to a new level as well.
Extensions for Kittle and DeForest Buckner will be priorities this offseason in San Francisco. The 49ers also have Arik Armstead, Jimmie Ward and Emmanuel Sanders on track for free agency. The team currently holds just $13MM in cap space — far less than it did in recent offseasons. But some big money will need to be earmarked for Kittle, a 26-year-old star who graded as Pro Football Focus’ top 2019 player.
49ers To Shop WR Marquise Goodwin?
Marquise Goodwin has struggled to replicate his 2017 numbers, and that could lead to a ticket out of San Francisco. When asked if the team could trade the wideout, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan didn’t play coy.
“We could, yeah,” Shanahan told Matt Barrows of The Athletic.
“You also don’t get rid of valuable people just for nothing. So we’ll have him come back and compete and if that doesn’t work out we could always possibly trade him. There are lots of things that are open. But I don’t know that exact answer yet.”
After falling out of favor in Buffalo, the former third-rounder had a breakout campaign in 2017. During his first season in San Francisco, Goodwin set career-highs across the board with 56 receptions for 962 receiving yards in 16 starts. He inked a three-year extension prior to the 2018 season, and the wideout hasn’t been able to hold up his side of the bargain. Goodwin was limited to 395 receiving yards in 2018 before getting phased out of the offense in 2019. He finished last season with 12 receptions for 186 yards and one score in nine games before landing on the injured reserve.
As Barrows notes, Goodwin is set to count for $4.9MM against the cap next season, a big ask for such limited production. Plus, the team will look to re-sign Emmanuel Sanders, and they’re hoping for big things from both Deebo Samuel and Dante Pettis. Despite the significant cap hit, the team won’t simply cut Goodwin.
“We wouldn’t release Marquise. He’s too valuable,” Shanahan said. “I know he fell out of the rotation last year, then he had an injury (and) wanted to go on IR so he could get it cleaned up. I think it is right now. I haven’t seen him for a while. Marquise is a guy who can play in this league. If he’s on this team, he’s going to be competing with that group and, if not, I feel pretty confident another team would want him.”
49ers, Jerick McKinnon To Discuss Restructured Deal
49ers general manager John Lynch told reporters that the front office will meet with Jerick McKinnon’s agent this week to discuss the running back’s contract (via The Athletic’s Matt Barrows).
The two sides will be working towards some type of restructuring, but it sounds like McKinnon may have a bit of leverage. While the veteran is set to count $8.55MM against the cap next season, the team would be left with $4MM in dead money if they chose to cut him. In that case, it makes sense for the 49ers to retain the running back, although the organization will surely be seeking some monetary savings. For what it’s worth, the former third-rounder previously said he wants to stick with the 49ers.
McKinnon inked a four-year, $30MM deal with the 49ers back in 2018, but he’s yet to see the field for a regular season game with San Francisco. The 27-year-old tore his ACL prior to the 2018 campaign, and a setback shelved him for the 2019 season.
“We’d like nothing more than to see him actually on the field,” Lynch said. “It’s no fault of Jerick’s. It’s just the way it’s been. And I can tell you we admire the way he’s worked through the various issues that he’s had.”
If McKinnon does return next season, he’ll be joining a crowded depth chart. Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman are both under contract, while Matt Breida (restricted free agent) and Jeff Wilson (exclusive rights free agent) could be retained.