Month: April 2022

Panthers’ Draft Plan

Carolina’s draft plans are becoming foggier and foggier each day as the Panthers are either really running through all of their options or else they are throwing up one heck of a smokescreen. Supporting a rumor we posted almost two weeks ago, Carolina will host NC State offensive lineman Ikem Ekwonu and Mississippi State offensive tackle Charles Cross this Tuesday for their 30 visits, according to Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated. 

Breer goes on to posit what many have deduced at this point from Carolina’s actions: if either of two of the Draft’s top offensive linemen fall to the Panthers’ first-round pick at sixth overall, Carolina would be expected to pounce at the opportunity to select them. This would fill a huge need at offensive tackle for the Panthers, but would leave another position need behind center unaddressed. The assumption is that, if the Panthers draft Ekwonu or Cross, they would address their need at quarterback by going after a veteran option like Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo.

This take seems to be diametrically opposed to multiple other takes we’ve heard in the last four days alone. On Wednesday, we heard that Carolina was considering trading their No. 6 overall pick to grab a few additional draft picks. Yesterday, we reported on rumors that “the consensus of the people in this league” is that Carolina is going to draft one of two quarterbacks: Malik Willis out of Liberty or Kenny Pickett of Pittsburgh. Six hours later, we reported that the Panthers were reversing course on statements made in March about their lack of interest in Mayfield and, in fact, had the inside track to acquire the Browns’ quarterback.

That last report is the only one that lines up with Breer’s assertion from this morning. That could either point to some much anticipated clarification on the Panthers’ draft plans or it could be some expert mind-trickery by general manager Scott Fitterer and head coach Matt Rhule. Sandwiched between the Giants’ two top-seven picks (No. 5 & No. 7), the Panthers’ draft needs are not far off from those of New York. So these mind-games could be targeted specifically at one franchise. Those early reports that Carolina would draft Willis or Pickett could’ve been aimed to put pressure on New York to take a quarterback with their first pick, increasing the odds that an offensive lineman like Ekwonu or Cross falls to them at six. Similarly, the increased reports that the Panthers want Ekwonu or Cross and will sign a veteran quarterback may be aimed to take that pressure off of New York, lulling the Giants into selecting an offensive lineman and giving Carolina more options at quarterback in the first round.

It’s a lot to follow and mostly going in circles, I know, but Carolina can afford to focus this much attention on their No. 6 pick because, with no selections in the second or third round, their second pick of the draft comes at the end of the fourth round slotted as 137th overall. While the scouting brass may have plans to acquire extra picks, their current situation makes their decision surrounding the sixth pick their most important decision of the offseason.

I honestly don’t know whether to tell you to expect things to get clearer or muddier as we get closer to the 2022 NFL Draft. The idea that Carolina is purposefully driving the narrative could even be proved false and we may find out that they truly have no idea what they want to do. Stay locked in as I’m sure this isn’t the last we’ll hear out of Carolina in the next week and a half.

NFL Offset Language, Explained

Ever since the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement, rookie contracts have been fairly regimented. Now, negotiations between teams and draft picks go pretty smoothly, with few – if any – unsigned rookies by the time training camp starts. 

These days, if there is haggling, it’s usually due to offset language. Offset language relates to what happens to a player’s salary if he’s cut during the first four years of his career, while he’s still playing on his rookie deal. For the top 15 to 20 picks in the draft, those four-year salaries are fully guaranteed, even if a player is waived at some point during those four seasons. For example, if a player has $4MM in guaranteed money remaining on his contract and is cut, he’ll still be owed that $4MM.

However, if a team has written offset language into the contract, that club can save some money if and when the player signs with a new team. For example, if that player who had $4MM in guaranteed money left on his contract signs with a new club on a $1MM deal, his old team would only be on the hook for $3MM, with the new team making up the difference. If there’s no offset language on that first deal, the old team would continue to be on the hook for the full $4MM, and the player would simply earn an additional $1MM from his new club.

In 2015, Marcus Mariota‘s camp went back-and-forth with the Titans until the two sides finally agreed to partial offset language in late July. In 2016, Joey Bosa’s holdout dominated headlines until the linebacker inked his deal on August 29th. In most cases, a lack of offsets for a player simply depends on which team drafted him — clubs like the Rams and Jaguars traditionally haven’t pushed to include offsets in contracts for their top picks, even in an era where most other teams around the league do.

In 2020, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Panthers defensive lineman Derrick Brown were the first Round 1 picks to sign and they agreed to offset language. It’s impossible to gauge how this year’s top stars will approach those talks, but offsets rarely come into play for elite prospects – few top picks flame out badly enough to get cut inside of four years. And even in those rare instances, if a player has performed poorly enough to be cut in his first few years, he likely won’t land a big-money deal elsewhere, so offset language wouldn’t help his old club recover more than the league minimum.

Rams Waive Kareem Orr

The Rams have waived cornerback Kareem Orr, per a club announcement. The move will free up an extra spot on their 90-man roster and give them extra flexibility heading into the draft and the subsequent undrafted free agent period.

[RELATED: Rams’ Matt Gay Signs RFA Tender]

Orr, 25, split his college career between Arizona and Chattanooga. He broke into the league as a UDFA and spent time with the Titans in 2019 and 2020 before hooking on with the Rams last year. Orr wound up playing in two games last year and registered four tackles but didn’t impress in his Week 14 showing against the rival Cardinals.

With Orr gone, the Rams’ cornerback group consists of Jalen RamseyRobert RochellDavid LongGrant Haley, and Tyler Hall. Long and Rochell are projected to start on the outside and in the slot, respectively, though this group could use some additional depth in the draft.

In other Rams news, linebacker Travin Howard has inked his $2.54MM restricted free agent tender, officially keeping him in the fold for the 2022 season. Howard, 26 in May, finished 2021 with 21 stops and one interception across 12 regular season appearances.

This Date In Transactions History: Dolphins Acquire Junior Seau From Chargers

For a three-year stretch in the mid-2000s, the Dolphins rostered three All-Decade defenders. Eighteen years ago Friday, Miami brought in Junior Seau to start on its Jason Taylor– and Zach Thomas-led defense.

On April 16, 2003, the Dolphins finalized a trade that brought Seau over from San Diego. It took only a conditional draft choice for the Dolphins to acquire the 13-year Chargers starter, who was 34 at the time of the trade. (That pick ended up becoming a fifth-rounder in 2004, which turned into future LaDainian Tomlinson backup and Falcons Pro Bowler Michael Turner.)

The 2003 offseason brought considerable change for the Chargers, who said goodbye to Seau and Rodney Harrison. While these two would end up teammates again in New England, Seau took a three-season detour. The Dolphins brought Seau over to join a defense that had ranked fourth in 2002; it ranked third in ’03, which turned out to be Seau’s best Miami season.

A Chargers first-round pick in 1990, the San Diego native became the greatest defender in franchise history. Seau ventured to 12 straight Pro Bowls from 1991-2002 and was a first-team All-Decade performer in the 1990s. The USC alum was the best player on the Bolts’ Super Bowl XXIX team, pairing elite tackling skills with pass-rushing ability that allowed him to put together three seven-sack seasons despite not working as a pure rusher. The Chargers, however, moved in a different direction in 2003, allowing Seau to seek a trade. The Bolts paid Seau around $2MM of a $2.7MM roster bonus, which was due the day before the trade was finalized.

Seau started 15 games for the ’03 Dolphins. He posted 96 tackles (12 for loss) and three sacks that season, a 10-6 Dolphins campaign that ended with the team just missing the playoffs. However, the Dave Wannstedt-run team could not generate momentum coming out of the season. The Dolphins started 1-9 in 2004 and fired Wannstedt. Seau battled through injuries — a pectoral tear in 2004 and an Achilles malady in ’05 — and was only able to log 15 games in that span. Prior to joining the Dolphins, Seau had not missed more than three games in a season.

The Dolphins released Seau in 2006, and he retired soon after. However, the Patriots pulled him out of retirement and used him as a starter in 2006. Seau played four more seasons, becoming one of the only NFL defenders to enjoy a 20-year career, before retiring for good in 2010. Tragically, Seau died by suicide in 2012. He was inducted to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot in 2015.

NFL Draft Notes: Hutchinson, Willis, London, Hall

Rumors about what Jacksonville is likely to do with it’s top overall draft pick later this month have been pretty far-ranging. Last month it was looking like new head coach Doug Pederson had his sights set on NC State offensive lineman Ikem Ekwonu. Some of their moves since around the opening of free agency, though, have Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer thinking differently.

Right before free agency, the Jaguars placed a second-consecutive franchise tag on left tackle Cam Robinson. They then went and spent good money on offensive guard Brandon Scherff. This has Breer thinking that Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke may be content to address the offensive line through free agency and use their number one pick on Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson.

It’s long been assumed that Hutchinson won’t make it past his hometown Lions at number two overall, but, unless the Jaguars decide to triple-down on building the offensive line up around quarterback Trevor Lawrence, Detroit may not even get the chance to take Hutchinson.

Here are some other rumors surrounding the 2022 NFL Draft, starting in Lynchburg, VA:

  •  We talked in December about the top quarterback prospects in the Draft this year with evaluators back then thinking Pitt’s Kenny Pickett or Ole Miss’s Matt Corral were the most likely to hear their names called first. Breer seems to believe that the current leader of that race is Liberty’s Malik Willis. After seeing players like Patrick Mahomes come up from a below-average Texas Tech team and Josh Allen make the leap from a Wyoming team with talent far below the NFL squads he would eventually lead, teams are putting more stock into unproven quarterbacks with high ceilings, and Willis fits the bill. His meetings with teams have done more than enough to convince most that he is ready to take the next step and handle NFL-level schemes.
  • One of the top wide receivers in the Draft, USC’s Drake London, will make his way to DC this week to be hosted by the Commanders, according to John Keim of ESPN. With Washington’s top receivers after Terry McLaurin last year being running backs J.D. McKissic and Antonio Gibson, followed by now free agent wide receiver Adam Humphries, London would fill a huge position of need for the Commanders. Having a big-bodied, sure-handed, NFL-ready wide receiver like London opposite McLaurin could pay big dividends for the Commanders’ offense this year.
  • Aaron Wilson of Pro Football Network reported that the University of Houston’s Logan Hall visited the Bengals yesterday. Hall was named first-team All-AAC after producing 13.0 tackles for loss and 6.0 sacks as a defensive tackle for the Cougars last year. Dane Brugler of The Athletic has Hall as the 33rd best overall prospect this year, while NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah slotted him at 50th overall. The Bengals have defensive tackles D.J. Reader and B.J. Hill under contract through 2024 and 2025, respectively, but Hall may be viewed as a long-term replacement, in case one of the two moves on.

Draft Value On C Linderbaum, Other Offensive Linemen

Despite being the top-ranked center on nearly everybody’s boards going into the 2022 NFL Draft, Iowa lineman Tyler Linderbaum may not hear his name called on Day 1 of the Draft. According to Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network, not one team he spoke to had a first-round grade on Linderbaum. 

Analysts’ early looks haven’t quite reflected this grade. Dane Brugler of The Athletic has Linderbaum as his 17th best overall prospect, placing him firmly as a first-round talent. The NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah’s most recent rankings are a bit more in line with Pauline’s assertion, placing Linderbaum as the 32nd best prospect in the Draft, a borderline first-rounder. Pauline claimed that every team had early second-round grades on the 22-year-old.

The top center in last year’s Draft was Alabama’s Landon Dickerson, who was chosen by the Eagles with the fifth pick of the second round. In 2020, Michigan’s Cesar Ruiz was taken by New Orleans with the 24th pick of the first round. Both players have spent most of their playing time at guard, starting most games for their respective clubs. Before that, Garrett Bradbury was selected by the Vikings with the 18th overall pick in 2019. Frank Ragnow and Billy Price were chosen with back-to-back picks by the Lions and Bengals, respectively, the year before. While Price no longer wears orange and black after being traded to the Giants, all three have become starting centers, with Ragnow earning Pro Bowl honors at the position.

All this to say that returns on top-drafted centers are hard to read. Some end up as utility interior linemen on teams with already established centers; Ruiz shifted to the side of Erik McCoy and Dickerson playing around Jason Kelce. They may be the heir apparent once their predecessor departs, but for now they’re too talented to keep off the field. Price lost his starting center position in Cincinnati, but regained snapping duties in New York. Bradbury and Ragnow have both been solid-to-good starters for middling teams.

There may just not be a huge need for centers right now. Like quarterbacks, a team only utilizes one center on a regular basis, meaning there are usually no more than 32 starting jobs in the league. If every team is completely comfortable with their situation in the middle, then a first-round pick might be too high a price to bring in Linderbaum. Yet, seeing how consistently Rimington Trophy finalists have come in and produced, this could just be a reflection of how teams view his talent. Linderbaum may just be a Day 2 pick.

Pauline also reported that his research of teams’ offensive line boards show college tackles like Kentucky’s Darian Kinnard, UCLA’s Sean Rhyan, Central Michigan’s Luke Goedeke, and North Dakota State’s Cordell Volson as guards on most teams’ boards. This is not entirely uncommon, especially for Goedeke and Volson, being from smaller market schools. Being a dominant offensive tackle at the NFL level demands much more than at the college level. Consistent pressure from NFL-sized defensive linemen requires size, strength, and length that isn’t always necessary in the NCAA. It’s fairly commonplace to see good tackles who maybe aren’t first-round talents make their case as a larger guard with frequent success.

Eagles, 3 Other Playoff Teams Made Run At Gilmore

After discussing deals and meeting with several teams that made the playoffs in the 2021 NFL season, cornerback Stephon Gilmore ended up signing with a team that just missed the playoffs in Week 18 last season joining the Colts. Well, according to Josina Anderson of CBS Sports, the teams that pushed the hardest for the two-time All-Pro were playoff teams from last season: the Eagles, Raiders, Rams, and Bills. 

Philadelphia “made a hard play” for the ten-year veteran in their efforts to replace departing starter Steven Nelson. Nelson started alongside Darius Slay in the Eagles’ secondary last season before signing with Houston this offseason. Without Nelson, the Eagles will likely count on Avonte Maddox to take another step in his development after being a strong rotational player for the past four seasons. They may turn to the 2022 NFL Draft to address the position, but, currently sitting at 15th, they would likely miss out on the Draft’s two most exciting cornerback prospects: Cincinnati’s Ahmad Gardner and LSU’s Derek Stingley. Those two are even less likely to fall to Philadelphia with Baltimore sitting one spot in front of them wanting to add some depth to the position after spending most of last year without starters Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey.

Las Vegas had an impressive showing from their cornerback group last year despite losing Damon Arnette due to multiple lawsuits and behavioral issues and only seeing Trayvon Mullen play five games. The Raiders saw Casey Hayward, Nate Hobbs, and Brandon Facyson step up and contribute to a strong defense. With Hayward going to Atlanta and Facyson joining Gilmore in Indianapolis, the Raiders made addressing the cornerback position a priority. Luckily, despite missing out on Gilmore, the Raiders made strong additions acquiring Rock Ya-Sin from the Colts in exchange for Yannick Ngakoue and signing Anthony Averett, who started much of last year for the Ravens with Peters and Humphrey injured. Ya-Sin and Averett will join a hopefully full-health Mullen and Hobbs to round out a solid cornerback room.

The Rams pursued Gilmore in an attempt to replace departing starter Darious Williams after he signed with the Jaguars this offseason. Los Angeles returns star Jalen Ramsey and role players David Long and Dont’e Deayon, but they likely would’ve preferred to add another bona fide starter opposite Gilmore. Unlike the Eagles, the Rams probably won’t turn to the Draft to fill this role. They’ve made an example in the league trading draft capital for experienced veterans and won a Super Bowl doing so. Not only is it more on brand for them to seek a replacement through the trade and free agent markets, but, even if they wanted to use the Draft, they don’t have a selection in the Draft until the 104th pick.

The Bills would’ve liked to bring Gilmore back home to Buffalo after losing starter Levi Wallace to free agency. Buffalo brings back plenty of contributors from last year in Tre’Davious White, Taron Johnson, Dane Jackson, and Siran Neal, but bringing back Gilmore would’ve allowed them to slip him into the void left by Wallace without asking too much of Jackson or Neal to step up. The Bills could try to slot in another veteran free agent cornerback like Joe Haden, Kyle Fuller, or Chris Harris, or, with a later first-round pick, they could try to take a flyer on one of the Draft’s less elite corners like Washington’s Trent McDuffie or Florida’s Kaiir Elam.

The targeting of Gilmore by these playoff teams speaks to his current value in the NFL. It shows something that teams contending to win it all believe he can add value to their defense. There’s also something to be said that these teams usually have a nearly complete roster, seeking Gilmore to fill in one of their last positions of need. While Gilmore may not be able to anchor a defense by himself on a fledgling defense, he can make strong contributions when surrounded by talented teammates. In Indianapolis, he’ll team up with Kenny Moore and Facyson to lead an otherwise inexperienced group of corners.

This Date In Transactions History: Dolphins, Panthers Make Unusual Draft Trade

The Broncos resisted trade overtures and passed on filling their longstanding quarterback need in the 2021 draft, taking Patrick Surtain II ninth overall. Surtain’s father entered the NFL 23 years earlier as part of a more complex draft strategy.

On April 16, 1998, the Dolphins made an interesting short-term-geared trade with the Panthers, dealing their 2000 first-round pick for Carolina’s 1998 second-round choice. This trade was part of a multipronged process by then-Dolphins honcho Jimmy Johnson, but the second-round selection Miami obtained ended paying off for both the Johnson and Dave Wannstedt regimes.

This trade occurred two days before the 1998 draft. On Day 1 of the then-two-day event, Miami traded its 1998 first-rounder to Green Bay by moving down 19 spots — from No. 10 to No. 29 — and picked up an additional second-round pick. While the Dolphins did not fare as well in part two of this plan, taking running back John Avery at No. 29 after the Packers chose long-term defensive end starter Vonnie Holliday at 10, they landed the top player involved in this swap in Patrick Surtain. The Dolphins used the Packers’ Round 2 pick to trade back further, but no player helped their cause like Surtain.

Chosen 44th overall in 1998, the elder Surtain helped the Dolphins craft a playoff streak that reached five seasons by the end of the 2001 campaign. The talented cornerback moved into the Dolphins’ starting lineup during the 1999 season and intercepted five passes in 2000, helping Miami to the divisional round that year.

The Dolphins won wild-card games during the first three seasons of Surtain’s career, with he and current Dolphins cornerbacks coach Sam Madison forming one of the league’s top corner tandems during this period. The duo combined for seven Pro Bowl invites and three All-Pro nods. Surtain’s All-Pro bid came in 2002. Both players signed extensions, Madison’s coming in 2000 and Surtain’s — a six-year, $27.7MM deal — coming in March 2001. Surtain spent seven seasons with the Dolphins, who traded him to the Chiefs in 2005. Holliday, whom the Chiefs cut shortly before signing Surtain, interestingly wound up in Miami as a free agent that year.

The other team involved in Miami’s initial trade did not make out well. Johnson was not around by the time the Panthers used the Dolphins’ 2000 first-round pick, having retired from coaching after the 1999 season. Carolina chose cornerback Rashard Anderson at No. 23 in 2000. The Division I-FCS product lasted just two years with Carolina, seeing a substance-abuse suspension sideline him indefinitely beginning in 2002.

Latest On Panthers, Baker Mayfield

Previously mentioned as being uninterested in Baker Mayfield, the Panthers look to be reversing course. Carolina now has the inside track to acquire the disgruntled quarterback from Cleveland, Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer notes.

During his much-discussed podcast appearance this week, Mayfield mentioned the Seahawks as his most likely destination. But the former No. 1 overall pick was unsure, as his offseason has now seen him drift into limbo following the Browns’ Deshaun Watson trade. A Panthers deal would be interesting. Not only has Mayfield been reported to be unenthused about playing with Carolina, Robby Anderson recently tweeted he would not be excited about such a deal. During an appearance on the Pat McAfee Show, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport also mentioned the Panthers as the most likely Mayfield team (video link).

[RELATED: Panthers Eyeing Ikem Ekwonu, Charles Cross]

Carolina, however, makes sense as a Mayfield suitor. Matt Rhule is on the hot seat, and GM Scott Fitterer said the team will likely have to compromise its board to draft a quarterback at No. 6. Mayfield would give the Panthers an instant starter, one who would likely be an upgrade on every Panthers QB situation since before injuries derailed Cam Newton‘s career. It would also pair Mayfield with Sam Darnold, giving the Panthers an interesting setup featuring the first two QBs drafted in 2018. Like Mayfield, Darnold is tied to a fully guaranteed fifth-year option salary ($18.9MM).

While it would seem Mayfield lacks options at this point, Cabot adds the fifth-year passer has “several” interested teams. The Seahawks would seemingly be in this mix. Others certainly would if the Browns cut him, but they are not expected to do so. A trade is tentatively expected to be completed by the draft. Otherwise, Mayfield’s market could shrink further, with certain teams set to make seminal QB decisions in the first and second rounds.

The Browns hope to resolve their newly awkward QB situation soon, rather than carry Mayfield on their roster deep into the offseason. It seems he will beat Jimmy Garoppolo to the transaction wire. It will be interesting if the Panthers or another team convinces the Browns to take on part of Mayfield’s salary. The Browns doing so would stand to increase the level of trade compensation.

These Mayfield rumblings come after the Panthers completed a busy week of quarterback evaluations. They hosted six QB prospects this week, and buzz around the league is pointing to a Carolina QB choice. It would not be out of the question for Carolina to acquire Mayfield and use its first-round pick on a passer, the likelier scenario would be the team trading for Mayfield and either taking a non-QB in Round 1 or trading the pick. Lacking any picks in Rounds 2 and 3, the Panthers have discussed moving down with a few teams.

Colts Meet With QB Desmond Ridder

The Colts acquired Matt Ryan and have said they plan to use him as their starter for at least the next two seasons, the duration of Ryan’s contract, but they continue to meet with top draft-eligible quarterbacks.

In addition to the Colts’ Malik Willis visit, they traveled to Cincinnati to meet with Desmond Ridder, Albert Breer of SI.com tweets. Ridder and various Bearcats receivers worked out for Colts brass Friday.

Indianapolis does not have a first-round pick this year, but the team does hold second- and third-round selections. The Colts’ second-round pick sits 42nd, five spots up thanks to the pick swap included in the Carson Wentz trade with the Commanders. That would put the Colts in play for a passer. Although the team has other needs and would make sense to be in play for a quarterback in 2023 or beyond, given the Ryan trade, Chris Ballard‘s staff is looking into this year’s QB group.

Mirroring the other quarterbacks in this much-maligned class, Ridder’s draft range varies. ESPN slots him as its No. 36 overall prospect; NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah does not rank the 6-foot-3 signal-caller inside his top 50. Mel Kiper Jr.’s latest mock draft has Ridder going 40th overall to the Seahawks. The Steelers, Seahawks and Panthers have met with Ridder.

Barring an offseason injury, Ryan will be the Colts’ sixth Week 1 QB starter in six years. Ryan’s post-trade cap number checks in at just $18.7MM, though his 2023 figure spikes to $35.2MM. Ballard said he will inform Ryan when the team plans to draft a quarterback highly. While the Colts diving into the first-round QB market in a later draft would be the more conventional path, is not out of the question that Ballard-Ryan conversation occurs this year.