Top 3 Offseason Needs: Green Bay Packers
In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll begin this year’s series with the Green Bay Packers, who lost quarterback Aaron Rodgers in Week 6 and subsequently limped to a 7-9 record.
Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)
Pending Free Agents:
- Geronimo Allison, WR (ERFA)
- Ahmad Brooks, LB
- Donatello Brown, CB (ERFA)
- Morgan Burnett, S
- Joe Callahan, QB (ERFA)
- Quinton Dial, DL
- Jahri Evans, G
- Brett Goode, LS
- Demetri Goodson, CB
- Davon House, CB
- Jeff Janis, WR
- Ulrick John, T
- Joe Kerridge, FB (ERFA)
- Justin McCray, G (ERFA)
- Adam Pankey, G (ERFA)
- Lucas Patrick, C (ERFA)
- Taybor Pepper, LS (ERFA)
- Richard Rodgers, TE
- Jacob Schum, P (RFA)
- Joe Thomas, LB (RFA)
- Herb Waters, WR (ERFA)
- Jermaine Whitehead, S (ERFA)
Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:
- Aaron Rodgers, QB: $20,900,000
- Randall Cobb, WR: $12,750,000
- Jordy Nelson, WR: $12,550,000
- Clay Matthews, LB: $11,400,000
- David Bakhtiari, T: $11,200,000
- Nick Perry, LB: $10,750,000
- Davante Adams, WR: $10,537,500
- Mike Daniels, DE: $9,900,000
- Bryan Bulaga, T: $8,350,000
- Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S: $5,957,000
Other:
- Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $21,979,291
- 14th pick in draft
- Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for CB Damarious Randall
Three Needs:
1) Add an explosive wide receiver: While nearly every statistical decline by the Packers’ 2017 offense can be at least somewhat attributed to the loss of Aaron Rodgers (and the related poor play of backup quarterback Brett Hundley), there is a way to strip out the performance of Green Bay’s signal-caller and assess the play-making ability and speed of the club’s offensive weapons. The NFL’s Next Gen Stats use on-field location data to track player acceleration, and the Packers have not fared well over the past two seasons. According to researcher Anthony Staggs, Green Bay’s wide receivers tied for last among the 32 NFL clubs with an average speed of 12.81 mph as ball carriers since 2016. Fleet-footed the Packers are not.
Green Bay’s wide receiver room could look a lot different in 2018, both due to the recent performance of the team’s pass-catchers and financial realities. Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson are the 17th- and 18th-highest-paid wideouts in the league, and it’s not clear that either is worth his current salary. Cobb hasn’t topped 650 yards receiving since 2015, while Nelson looked his age (32) last season. The Packers could save nearly $9.5MM by releasing Cobb and more tan $10MM by cutting Nelson this offseason, and while both are candidates to be let go, I wonder if Cobb will be saved by his relative youth (he’s still only 27 years old).
Let’s assume the Packers will need to add at least one outside receiver to play alongside Davante Adams, who recently inked a four-year, $58MM extension. The first place to look will be the free agent market, and two options who could be had for relatively cheap are the Colts’ Donte Moncrief and the Cardinals’ John Brown. Marcus Mosher of Bleacher Report’s NFL1000 series recently discussed both options through a series of GIFS (Moncrief: No. 1, No. 2; Brown: No. 1, No. 2, No. 3), noting Moncrief’s “insane amount of unlocked talent” and Brown’s “easy speed” and ball-tracking ability. Neither has been effective since the 2015 campaign, meaning Green Bay should be able to land either on a one- or two-year deal.
Other receivers that could make sense for the Packers include Paul Richardson and Jaron Brown, who managed the most 20+ yard catches among free agent wideouts; Mike Wallace, who’s made a career out of handling deep balls; and Brice Butler, who boasts an intriguing size/speed combination and is looking for a starting job. Given the presence of Adams, and the fact that at least one of Cobb or Nelson will likely be retained, Green Bay doesn’t need to go searching for a No. 1 wide receiver, and can instead target marginal upgrades with specific skills.
Having said that, the Colts T.Y. Hilton would look good in green and gold and would immediately give the Packers one of the best wide receiving corps in the league. Hilton, of course, isn’t a free agent, but his name did pop up in trade rumors last October. While Indianapolis reportedly holds Hilton in “high regard,” it’s possible he could still be available for the right price, especially if the Colts decide to undergo something of a mini-rebuild. Hilton, 28, is under contract for three more seasons with base salaries between $11MM and $14.5MM. Other wideouts who could be acquired via trade (or following a release), such as Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas, aren’t fits for Green Bay, but Michael Crabtree could be on new general manager Brian Gutekunst‘s radar if he’s cut by the Raiders.
The Packers could also use the draft to secure another wideout, but they likely won’t invest a first-round pick on the position. While other receivers could sneak into the first round, Alabama’s Calvin Ridley is the only lock to be selected on Day 1. Green Bay, for what it’s worth, hasn’t used a first-round pick on a pass-catcher since 2002 when they took Javon Walker out of Florida State. SMU’s Courtland Sutton, whom Matt Miller of Bleacher Report says has the best potential of any 2018 receiver, could be on the table for the Packers in Round 2, while D.J. Chark (LSU), Deontay Burnett (USC), and Deon Cain (Clemson) are among the speedy options who may be available in the middle rounds.
2) Fix the pass defense: Green Bay’s secondary was among the NFL’s worst in 2017, as the unit ranked 26th in DVOA (including a dead last finish against opposing No. 1 wide receivers), 30th in yards per attempt allowed, and 31st in passer rating allowed. All of the Packers’ primary cornerbacks, including Damarious Randall, Davon House, Josh Hawkins, and Kevin King, finished in the bottom quartile of Pro Football Focus‘ CB rankings. While changes could come organically — much of the Packers’ secondary is still young aside from House, and new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine should be an improvement over Dom Capers — Green Bay should look into adding another corner this spring.Read more
Coaching Rumors: Colts, Cowboys, Chargers
The Colts have received permission to interview Saints tight ends coach Dan Campbell and Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich, and will do so later this week, tweets Mike Chappell of CBS4. Indianapolis will meet with Campbell on Thursday before speaking with Reich on Friday, per Chappell. The Colts, of course, were forced to restart their head coaching search on Tuesday after Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels backed out of his agreement to take over the role. Campbell and Reich were actually part of Indianapolis’ original list of possible interviewees, but their team’s playoff runs prevented meetings, reports Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star. So far, Campbell and Reich are the only candidates known to have scheduled interviews with Indy, but Chiefs special teams coordinator Dave Toub and Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier are also viewed as possible contenders
Here’s more from the 2018 coaching carousel:
- Former Raiders tight ends coach Bobby Johnson could be a candidate for the same position with the Cowboys, according to Todd Archer of ESPN.com. Johnson interviewed for Oakland’s head coaching job earlier this year (in what was widely viewed as a meeting to satisfy the Rooney Rule), but wasn’t retained by new HC Jon Gruden. Johnson, who entered the pro coaching ranks in 2010, has coached offensive lines and tight ends during stops in Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Detroit. Dallas’ top choice to lead its tight ends was reportedly former Titans quarterbacks coach Jason Michael, but he instead opted to join the Cardinals’ staff.
- The Chargers have hired former UCLA assistant Rip Scherer as their new tight ends coach, reports Bruce Feldman of FOX Sports (Twitter link). Scherer will replace John McNulty, who recently left Los Angeles in order to become Rutgers’ offensive coordinator. Scherer, for his part, has a history of coaching quarterbacks in the NFL, and has done so with the Browns (2005-08) and Panthers (200-10). The rest of his coaching tenure has been spent in the NCAA, and he’s been a play-caller at stops such as Alabama, Arizona, Kansas, and Southern Miss.
- D’Anton Lynn, the son of Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn, will be hired as the Texans‘ assistant defensive backs coach, tweets Mike Garafolo of NFL.com. The younger Lynn has followed his father to each of his last three stops, serving as a defensive assistant in New York, Buffalo, and — most recently — Los Angeles. He’ll now work under Houston defensive backs coach Anthony Midget, whom himself was promoted from the assistant job to the full-time role earlier this offseason.
- The Browns have added Sam Shade to their staff as an assistant special teams coach, the club announced today. Shade will work under Amos Jones, who replaced Chris Tabor as Cleveland’s primary special teams coach earlier this year. Shade spent the 2017 campaign as Georgia State’s cornerbacks coach, and previously served as special teams coordinator at Samford for seven seasons.
Eagles Prefer John DeFilippo To Frank Reich As OC?
Eagles quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo has been a candidate for head coaching and offensive coordinator jobs this offseason, but Philadelphia does not want him to leave. In fact, the Eagles may prefer to keep DeFilippo as the club’s offensive coordinator instead of incumbent Frank Reich, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk.
DeFilippo’s contract with the Eagles doesn’t expire until February 14, and Philadelphia is not allowing him to speak with other clubs until that pact officially concludes. That’s not being done out of spite, per Florio, but instead because the Eagles hope they can retain DeFilippo going forward.
Of course, with Reich already in place as team’s OC, Philadelphia has no way to promote DeFilippo aside from firing Reich (something that seems totally unlikely coming off a Super Bowl title). However, Reich is now reportedly being considered for the newly-created vacancy in Indianapolis, meaning the Eagles could have an open spot for DeFilippo if Reich lands with the Colts.
The 39-year-old DeFilippo interviewed for head coaching positions in Arizona and Chicago this offseason, and is still being considered for open offensive coordinator positions. The Vikings are willing to wait until DeFilippo’s contract with the Eagles expires before hiring an OC of their own, while the Giants have also been mentioned as a possible suitor. Notably, neither New York nor Philadelphia would offer DeFilippo true play-calling ability, while Minnesota would.
Coaching Rumors: Lions, Titans, Tice, Cards
New Lions hire Paul Pasqualoni is expected to take on a “prominent role” on the club’s coaching staff, reports Field Yates of ESPN.com (Twitter link). Previous reports have indicated that Pasqualoni, who had been working as Boston College’s defensive line coach, could take over as Detroit’s defensive coordinator under Patricia (who figures to call his own defensive plays). The Lions are in need of a new DC after Teryl Austin, the team’s defensive play-caller for the past four seasons, took the same job with Cincinnati. However, Pasqualoni could instead receive an assistant head coach title, per Yates.
Here’s more from the 2018 coaching carousel:
- Like Patricia, new Titans head coach Mike Vrabel continues to fill out his staff, as Tennessee announced today that it has hired Keith Carter to coach the club’s offensive line and Tony Dews to lead the team’s running backs. Carter, who spent the past three seasons with Atlanta, will now be in charge of a Titans front five that ranked among the league’s best in 2016 but took a significant step backwards a year ago. Dews, meanwhile, has never coached in the pro ranks, but does offer 20 years of collegiate experience, including stops at Arizona, Pitt, Michigan, and — most recently — West Virginia. Tennessee has also retained assistant offensive line coach Mike Sullivan, according to Alex Marvez of the Sporting News.
- Mike Tice sounds like’s ready to call it a career. The former Vikings head coach recently told Dan Barrerio of KFAN (Twitter link) that he’s considering retirement because players “no longer want to be coached.” Whether that’s a serious threat or instead indicative of Tice’s inability to connect with today’s millennial players is unclear, but the 59-year-old Tice would be giving up a coaching career that began in 1996. Tice served as Minnesota’s head coach from 2002-05, and had spent the past three seasons as Oakland’s offensive line coach.
- The Cardinals have hired former Titans quarterbacks coach Jason Michael as their new tight ends coach, as Marvez reports. The Cowboys also had interest in adding Michael to fill their vacant tight ends coach job, but Michael instead chose to head to the desert. Michael was previously Tennessee’s offensive coordinator from 2014-15, but was demoted when Mike Mularkey took over the Titans’ full-time head coach in 2016.
- The Panthers had become something of a family business after hiring Norv and Scott Turner earlier this year, as the club subsequently boasted four Turners on its staff. However, Norv and Scott are the only members of the family staying on board in Carolina for the 2018 campaign, however, according to Bill Voth of Panthers.com (Twitter link). Assistant quarterbacks coach Cameron Turner is joining the University of Arizona staff, while offensive consultant Ron Turner won’t be with the club (though it’s presently unclear why).
- The Steelers announced that they’ve hired Blaine Stewart as an offensive assistant. Stewart is the son of former West Virginia coach Bill Stewart, who gave Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin his first coaching assignment at VMI in 1995.
Minor NFL Transactions: 2/6/18
Today’s minor moves:
Baltimore Ravens
- Signed: WR DeVier Posey
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Signed: DE Kapron Lewis-Moore
New England Patriots
- Signed: OL James Ferentz, WR Cody Hollister, DB David Jones, OL Jason King, CB Ryan Lewis, WR Riley McCarron, DB Damarius Travis, TE Will Tye, CB Jomal Wiltz
New Orleans Saints
- LB Jayrone Elliott, WR Josh Huff
Tennessee Titans
Patriots Have Not Promised HC Job To Josh McDaniels
Josh McDaniels made the decision to walk away from the Colts’ head coaching job offer without receiving a promise that he will succeed Bill Belichick as the Patriots’ next head coach, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk.
McDaniels reportedly did not bail on Indianapolis because of money, but instead had concerns about moving his family away from the New England area. While McDaniels received “clarity” as to Belichick’s future in recent days, that apparently doesn’t mean he’s been told he’ll become the Pats head coach whenever Belichick retires. Indeed, if McDaniels had been informed Belichick was nearing retirement, he’d have been more inclined to take a head coaching job.
McDaniels may have had worries about the condition of Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (Chris Mortensen of ESPN.com reported Sunday that some doctors believe Luck may require another surgery), but Florio indicates McDaniels’ chief concerns involved working with Colts owner Jim Irsay. Whether the next round of Indianapolis candidates will have that same uneasiness is unclear, but the Colts plan to restart their head coaching search this week.
Colts Could Consider Leslie Frazier For HC?
As the Colts restart their head coaching search in the wake of Josh McDaniels‘ rejection, one name that “could come up” is that of Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter link).
As Rapoport notes, Frazier has worked in Indianapolis before, as he served as the club’s assistant head coach/defensive backs from 2005-06, winning a Super Bowl title in the process. As such, Frazier enjoys a close relationship with Colts owner Jim Irsay, and would help Indianapolis “return to normalcy” following the McDaniels debacle. Frazier, 58, also offers the benefit of having been a head coach before, as he led the Vikings from 2010-13.
In 2017, Frazier spent his first season as the Bills’ defensive coordinator under head coach Sean McDermott, and helped the unit finish middle of the pack in most defensive statistics despite the club having traded away key players such as cornerback Ronald Darby and defensive tackle Marcell Dareus. In addition to Buffalo, Minnesota, and Indianapolis, Frazier has also worked in Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, and Baltimore.
Details On Josh McDaniels’ Rejection Of Colts HC Job
In a move not seen since Bill Belichick resigned as “HC of the NYJ” in 2000, Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels decided not to accept the Colts’ head coaching position after the club had already formally announced his hire. Adam Schefter of ESPN.com, who originally reported the McDaniels story, has since offered more details on the New England play-caller’s decision:
- While McDaniels’ decision to remain with the Patriots may lead many to speculate that Belichick is close to retirement, that may not be the case, per Schefter. In fact, had Belichick made it clear that he was about to leave New England, McDaniels would have been more inclined to accept a head coaching offer. As Schefter reported earlier, Patriots owner Robert Kraft “sweetened” McDaniels’ contract over the past few days — had that overture started sooner, McDaniels may not have taken any head coaching interviews, at all.
- Although McDaniels ultimately decided to reject the Colts’ offer, his decision was not based on money, according to Schefter. Instead, McDaniels had concerns about moving his family away from the New England area (the same worries he reportedly had while considering the 49ers’ job a year ago). His unease with leaving the Patriots lead to the Colts having McDaniels in for a second interview. While Indy formally announced McDaniels as its new head coach earlier today, McDaniels had never officially signed a contract, per Schefter.
- Despite rejecting this present opportunity, McDaniels would still like to become a head coach again, per Schefter. It seems incredibly unlikely that any team will trust McDaniels with a head coaching job in the near future given his decision to bail on the Colts, but — clearly — he does have some interest in becoming the next Patriots’ head coach when Belichick retires.
- McDaniels was reportedly offering jobs to assistants earlier today, tweets Ian Rapoport of NFL.com. Some coaches, such as Matt Eberflus (defensive coordinator), Dave DeGuglielmo (offensive line), and Mike Phair (defensive line) have already signed contracts with the Colts, and they’ll be offered roles under the new Indianapolis head coach, whomever that may be, per Albert Breer of TheMMQB.com (Twitter link).
- Kraft’s decision to put the full-court press on McDaniels may have deeper roots, as one source texted Schefter (Twitter link): “That’s Kraft putting it to the Colts again. He will forever try and (expletive) that place ever since DeflateGate.”
Patriots To Retain ST Coach Joe Judge
Josh McDaniels is staying put in New England, and so is Joe Judge. The Patriots have struck a deal to retain their special teams coordinator, tweets Mike Garafolo of NFL.com. 
The Colts had been trying to pry Judge away from the Patriots, but now that McDaniels has rejected Indianapolis’ head coaching offer, Judge will remain in New England. There was also some thought that another former Pats coordinator — new Lions head coach Matt Patricia — could lure Judge to Detroit, but that won’t be happening, either.
Judge, 36, was promoted from assistant special teams coach to the primary role following Scott O’Brien‘s 2015 retirement. New England’s special teams unit, always one of the league’s best under Bill Belichick & Co., hasn’t skipped a beat with Judge in charge, as the club has ranked among the top-eight clubs in ST DVOA since 2015. In 2017, the Patriots’ special teams posted their best year yet under Judge by finishing third in DVOA.
Colts To Restart Head Coach Search Within 24-48 Hours
After Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels rejected the Colts’ head coaching job in order to remain with New England, Indianapolis is restarting its search. The Colts “had a feeling” McDaniels could back of out his agreement, and the club now has three candidates ready to be interviewed within the next two days, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk (Twitter link).
While none of the new contenders for the position have yet been identified, it’s difficult to imagine Chiefs special teams coordinator Dave Toub is not among them. Toub worked with Colts general manager Chris Ballard in Kansas City and has been viewed as a “contingency plan” for Indianapolis if McDaniels bowed out. Indeed, Mike Garafolo of NFL.com (Twitter link) calls Toub a “strong candidate” for the newly-created Colts vacancy.
The other finalist for the Colts’ head coaching job (during the first search) was ex-Texans defensive coordinator Mike Vrabel, but he’s already found another position as the Titans head coach. Likewise, other candidates such as Matt Nagy and Kris Richard have landed gigs with the Bears and Cowboys, respectively, while Baylor head coach Matt Rhule removed his name from consideration during the original hunt.