Cowboys Targeting Melvin Gordon In Draft

After losing NFL Offensive Player of the Year DeMarco Murray to the Eagles in free agency, the Cowboys are on the lookout for a replacement at running back. The addition of former Raider Darren McFadden notwithstanding, Dallas seems likely to add an RB via the draft, and according to Tony Pauline of DraftInsider.net (Twitter link), Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon appears to be the club’s top target.

The Cowboys hold the 27th pick in the first round, so as Pauline suggests, they might need to trade up if they want to select Gordon. PFR’s Rob DiRe and ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. both have Gordon going off the board to the Cardinals at pick No. 24, while Kiper’s colleague Todd McShay doesn’t have Gordon being drafted in the first round. But the general consensus seems to be that Gordon will be picked somewhere after the 20th pick, so to be safe, the Cowboys might need to move up, at least ahead of Arizona.

If Dallas wanted to move up to the 23rd pick (one spot ahead of Arizona), which is currently held by the Lions, they’d have to give up a mid-round selection to do so. Using Chase Stuart of Football Perspective’s draft pick calculator, the Cowboys would need to sacrifice a fifth-round pick to trade up to No. 23. Per Jimmy’s Johnson’s value chart, Dallas would probably need to trade either a third- or a fourth-round pick.

Gordon was the NCAA’s leading rusher in 2014, totaling more than 2,500 yards on the ground while scoring 29 touchdowns. He finished second to Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota in last year’s Heisman race.

Lions Disputing Bucs’ Offer To George Johnson

MONDAY, 2:07pm: The Lions are disputing the terms of the Buccaneers’ offer sheet, reports Tim Twentyman of Lions.com (Twitter link). It’s not clear what Detroit is contesting, but an independent arbitrator will “identify all terms that that have to be matched” within 10 days, per Twentyman (Twitter link), who adds that the Lions will then have two days to match the offer.

WEDNESDAY, 3:38pm: The offer sheet Johnson signed with the Bucs is worth a total of $9MM over three years, a source tells Garafolo (Twitter link). It’s not clear yet whether the Lions will decide to match it.

TUESDAY, 8:13pm: The Buccaneers have signed Lions restricted free agent George Johnson to an offer sheet, according to Scott Smith of Buccaneers.com (Twitter link). While we don’t yet know the financial terms, Mike Garafolo of FOX Sports tweets that the deal is for three years. Detroit will have five days to match the offer to its defensive end.

An undrafted free agent in 2011, Johnson originally signed, coincidentally, with the Buccaneers, and spent parts of the next two seasons with the club. Tampa hosted Johnson for a visit last week, signalling their interest, and while we don’t know the terms of the Bucs’ offer, there’s a decent chance he ends up with the team. He’d slot in at one of the defensive end spots along Tampa Bay’s defensive line, essentially replacing Michael Johnson, who was released.

The Lions tendered Johnson at the lowest level, meaning that while they’ll be able to match Tampa Bay’s offer, they won’t receive any compensation if they decline to match. The 27-year-old Johnson was quietly effective last season, appearing in all 16 games and earning a positive grade from Pro Football Focus (subscription required), largely thanks to his excellent pass-rushing acumen.

The Lions have only a tad over $3.5MM in cap space, so it could be tough for them to match any offer sheet, no matter the size. With Haloti Ngata, Ezekiel Ansah, and Jason Jones set to count about $17.5MM against the cap in 2015, Detroit could be wary of investing any more money in its defensive line.

Johnson is the second restricted free agent to sign an offer sheet today, joining Sean Richardson of the Packers.

‘Hawks Still Negotiating With Tarvaris Jackson

The Seahawks are still working on a long-term extension with Russell Wilson, but as Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk writes, the club still doesn’t have a solid backup in place behind the fourth-year quarterback. Tarvaris Jackson has served as Seattle’s No. 2 signal-caller for the past two seasons, and while he and the team have been discussing a new deal, Florio reports that two sides have had trouble determining his value.

The 31-year-old Jackson earned $1.25MM in 2014, which was right around the middle of the pack in terms of backup quarterbacks. But as Florio notes, Wilson’s salary is expected to rise dramatically in 2015, meaning Seattle will have to cut costs at certain positions, and No. 2 QB might be one area where they could look to find some savings. But if the Seahawks want to look internally for a Jackson replacement, they might be out of luck. Besides Wilson, the only other quarterbacks on the roster are B.J. Daniels, a former seventh-round pick and practice squader, and R.J. Archer, who has spent most of his pro time on CFL and AFL rosters.

If Seattle isn’t able to reach an agreement with Jackson, they could look to the free agent market to find a new reserve QB. Interestingly, former Hawk Matt Flynn is available, though I doubt Flynn, who was ultimately traded after losing the starting job to Wilson, would want to return to Seattle. Florio posits that Michael Vick would be an intriguing add for the Seahawks, as he possesses the same sort of mobility that Wilson does, while I would add that fellow FA Tyler Thigpen also has had success as a running quarterback.

Jackson attempted just one pass in 2014 (a completion), but he’s started 34 games during his nine-year career, so he would offer valuable experience in the event Wilson was injured. The Alabama State alum visited the Dolphins last month before they re-signed Matt Moore, and was reportedly discussed internally by the Eagles.

Dolphins Assessing Cornerback Options

Since losing Sean Smith to the Chiefs prior to the 2013 season, the Dolphins have struggled to find a corner to play opposite Brent Grimes. Now that free agent bust Cortland Finnegan has been released, Miami’s top options at its No. 2 CB spot are third-year pros Jamar Taylor and Will Davis, neither of whom inspire much confidence. As such, the club could look to the draft to fill its corner void, and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that the Dolphins will meet with Trae Waynes (Michigan State), Jalen Collins (LSU), and Kevin Johnson (Wake Forest), all of whom are potential first-round picks.

Along with the previously-reported visit of CB/S Eric Rowe (a projected second-rounder), Miami will have used four of their 30 allotted prospect visits on cornerbacks. Per Jackson, the Dolphins view free agent signee Brice McCain purely as a nickel corner, where he’ll replace Jimmy Wilson. Therefore, with Taylor and Davis both recovering from injuries, a first-round cornerback would presumably be asked to step into the starting lineup immediately.

The Dolphins have spent the offseason trying to upgrade their secondary — they were reportedly the runner-up in the Buster Skrine sweepstakes, while they’ve also expressed interest in potentially-available Eagles CB Brandon Boykin (though Boykin, like McCain, is primarily a slot corner, so there wouldn’t seem to be a role for him in Miami). If the Fins fail to use a draft pick on a cornerback, they could turn to the free agent market, which while relatively barren, still has some veteran options like former 49er/Raider Tarell Brown.

For his part, Jackson believes the Dolphins will ultimately use the 14th overall pick on either a corner or a wide receiver, as the club has used quite a few of its draft visit quota on those two positions. On a similar note, James Walker of ESPN.com looked this morning at whether it would make sense for Miami to trade down and acquire more draft picks.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Dwight Freeney

Using the 2015 franchise tag figures as a gauge, it’s evident that edge defenders are considered, and compensated as, one of the most important position on the field, second only to quarterbacks. While the QB franchise number for the upcoming season is set at $18.544MM, the figure for pass rushers (which I determined by averaging the franchise salaries for defensive ends and liDwight Freeneynebackers) will be $13.854MM.

The need for high-quality edge defenders was borne out in free agency, where the best available rushers garnered top-end contracts. Jerry Hughes signed a five-year, $45MM pact to stay with the Bills, the Bears handed Pernell McPhee $38.75MM to lure him away from Baltimore, and Brandon Graham was retain by the Eagles on a four-year, $26MM deal. The market for rushers (and defenders as a whole) is mostly picked over now that we’re a month removed from the beginning of free agency, but there are a few options still remaining, one of whom is veteran LB/DE Dwight Freeney.

Entering his age-35 season, Freeney obviously isn’t the player he once was during his prime when the Colts, with whom he averaged 10 sacks per year from 2002-12 (including a league-leading 16 in 2004). But the Syracuse alum still has a lot to offer on the football field, including the ability to stand up and play outside linebacker, the position he manned during the past two seasons in San Diego. Freeney didn’t rack up the same gaudy sacks totals with the Chargers that he did with Indianapolis — he posted just four total sacks from 2013-14 — but a deeper look his statistics shows that he’s still capable of affecting an opposing club’s passing attack.

Freeney played on approximately 55% of San Diego’s defensive snaps last year, rushing the passer or defending the run on nearly every play (he saw just 14 coverage snaps). While he accrued just 3.5 sacks, he placed third among qualifying 3-4 OLBs with 40 quarterback hurries, and 14th with nine QB hits — as such, he graded as the sixth-best at his position in terms of pass-rush productivity, an all-encompassing metric from Pro Football Focus (subscription required) that seeks to measure a defender’s total pressure output. Subscribing to Josh Norris of Rotoworld’s theory that “disruption is production” — in other words, sack totals aren’t the only way to judge a pass rusher — it’s clear that Freeney has quite a bit left to offer.

Unlike the other edge rushers mentioned above, Freeney shouldn’t require a multi-year deal or any significant amount of guaranteed money. That might seem like an odd statement given his production last season, but given his advanced age, and the fact that he’s yet to draw any known interest since announcing his intention to play this season on March 2, it seems like Freeney will have to end up accepting a one-year deal with minimal risk attached for the team.

Freeney, a three-time All Pro, is coming off a contract that paid him nearly $4.5MM annually (though he eventually accepted a pay cut from the Chargers), but he probably won’t be able to match that figure again. Fellow OLB Sean Weatherspoon recently signed a one-year, $3.875MM pact with the Cardinals, and while Weatherspoon does have a lengthy injury history to account for, he’s also eight years younger than Freeney. As such, I’d guess that something like $3MM over one year, perhaps with some incentives available, would be a fair deal for Freeney.

There a quite a few teams that could use a situational rusher like Freeney, and because he has experience both with his hand in the ground and standing up, I wouldn’t think he’d be limited to one scheme. That versatility could prove handy, especially for clubs that like to mix up their defensive fronts. One such team, the Patriots, always seem to be able to coax out the last bit of production from veteran players, so Freeney could be a fit in New England. Elsewhere, the Falcons, Packers, Bengals, Bears, and Chiefs all finished among the bottom-10 in adjusted sack rate, and might be interested in adding edge talent. For his part, Peter King of TheMMQB.com opined last month that the Buccaneers could also be a possible fit, while I recently suggested another NFC South club, the Panthers, could find a bargain in Freeney.

One club that won’t be signing Freeney is the Chargers, as general manager Tom Telesco told Freeney in March that San Diego wouldn’t be retaining him. Personally, I find that a bit surprising, as San Diego’s pass rush was nothing special last season — the team finished 29th in sacks and 20th in adjusted sack rate. Following the retirement of Jarret Johnson, the Chargers don’t have much depth at outside linebacker, so unless they’re especially high on 2013 sixth-round pick Tourek Williams (the projected starter at LOLB), I’m confused as to why San Diego wouldn’t welcome Freeney back.

One reason that could help explain why Freeney remains unsigned is that free agent contracts are still tied compensatory draft picks for another month. In the past, the cutoff date for draft pick compensation was June 1, but the league recently moved that deadline up to May 12. Based on Zack Moore of Over the Cap’s calculations, Miles Austin‘s $2.3MM deal with the Browns is currently the least-expensive contract tied to a compensatory pick. So if Freeney is asking for the ~$3MM that I estimated for him, interested clubs might be wary of possibly forfeiting the chance at a comp pick to sign him (even if that pick will only be a sixth- or seventh-rounder). As such, we’ll probably have to wait until after that May 12 date so see Freeney (and other veterans like him) find new homes.

Like I noted when I profiled fellow free agent Brandon Spikes, I think NFL teams are wise to focus on what a player can do, instead of what he can’t do. Spikes is out of his element in pass coverage, but he’s an effective run defender when given the chance. Freeney is 35 years old and needs to have his playing time monitored, but as a part-time pass rusher who sees 35 snaps per game, he can still be highly productive. A club could do much worse than to hand Freeney $3MM or so and insert him into it’s edge defender rotation.

PFR Originals: 4/5/15 – 4/12/15

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Week In Review: 4/5/15 – 4/12/15

The headlines from the past week at PFR:

Key News:

2016 Fifth-Year Options:

Extended:

Restricted Free Agency:

Signed/Re-Signed:

Suspended:

Troy Polamalu Announces Retirement

Longtime Steelers safety Troy Polamalu has announced his retirement from the NFL, telling Jim Wexell of Scout.com that he’s hanging up his cleats. One of the best defenders of his generation, Polamalu was not expected to return to Pittsburgh in 2015, and he explained that the idea of playing for another franchise did not appeal to him.Troy Polamalu

“I did not seriously consider playing elsewhere,” said Polamalu. “It was just whether or not I wanted to play. I had talked to a lot of people about what I should do with my situation, and what they kept saying back to me, and which was not a sufficient reason, was ‘Troy, you played 12 years in the NFL, you won Super Bowls, won individual awards. There’s noting left to prove. You have a legacy.’ And I just kept saying, ‘First of all, I don’t care about a legacy. Second of all, I play the game because I enjoy it.’ That’s the reason to keep playing.

But when I started this process and started to debate whether I should come back or should I play, that was kind of the sign for me to say, ‘Whoa, if you’re just even debating it maybe you shouldn’t play anymore,’ because what I do know about this game is it takes a lot, a lot, of commitment just to be an average player.”

Polamalu, who will turn 34 in 10 days, had been a fixture on the Steelers’ defense since entering the league in 2003, appearing in 158 total games for the franchise. However, he wasn’t the same game-changing player in 2014 that he had been earlier in his career. While Pro Football Focus (subscription required) still gave the veteran a positive grade, it was only by a hair — his +0.1 mark placed him 48th out of 87 qualified safeties. It was also the only season of Polamalu’s career besides 2007 in which he failed to record at least one interception or sack.

But it was off-the-field concerns that ultimately lead Polamalu to contemplate retirement. “It’s all about family,” he said. “I live here in Pittsburgh now, and since the end of the season I’ve had a chance to enjoy my family on a level I never had before. It was awesome.” Seemingly a lock for a Hall of Fame berth, Polamalu won two Super Bowl titles with the Steelers (2006, 2009), and was named the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2010. The 12-year veteran posted 32 interceptions during the course of his career.

As noted above, the USC alum was not expected back with the Steelers for the upcoming season, and the club reportedly had hoped that Polamalu would retire, sparing the organization from having to release an icon. Due to Polamalu’s retirement, Pittsburgh will incur $4.5MM in dead money, but they’ll save $3.75MM in cap space. If the transaction is processed after the May 12 deadline, the Steelers will save $6MM in cap space, and take hits of $2.25MM in 2016 and 2017.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Brandon Spikes

Last March, coming off a five-year stretch with the Patriots, inside linebacker Brandon Spikes had to settle for a one-year deal with the division-rival Bills that netted him just $3.25MM. That contract, while likely below Spikes’ salary target, was signed within days of the start of the free agent period. This year, however, we’re nearly a month separated from the beginning of free agBrandon Spikesency, and Spikes is still unsigned.

There are a myriad of reasons that could help explain why Spikes is still on the market, but chief among them is probably the devaluation of the inside linebacker position. Not only are ILBs not (for the most part) getting paid in free agency, but two-down run-stopping specialists, such as Spikes, are rapidly falling out of favor in today’s NFL.

The advanced metrics provided by Pro Football Focus (subscription required) actually paint a relatively positive picture of Spikes’ pass-coverage abilities, as he ranked fourth-best at his position in yards per coverage snap and coverage snaps per reception. Each of those statistics, however, are dependent on a player’s total coverage snaps, of which Spikes had few. The 27-year-old saw just 222 snaps in coverage, the 16th-fewest among qualifying inside linebackers. Small sample size is obviously an issue here, as the consensus among most observers is that Spikes isn’t cut out for three-down duty.

But for a club looking for a force against the run, there are certainly worse options than Spikes. Overall, he graded as PFF’s 13th-best inside linebacker in the league last season, and his total ranking was buoyed in large part by his run-stopping acumen, as he placed ninth in that department. Spikes’ 2014 run-defense numbers are no fluke, as he ranked No. 1 against the run in both 2012 and 2013.

Of course, Spikes’ on-the-field limitations and/or strengths might not be the only factors playing into his current availability. Clubs also take into account soft factors, and Spikes has a history of (relatively minor) off-the-field incidents. He’s been called a “headhunter” by other players (and has been fined heavily for certain hits), posted offensive material on social media, and been lambasted by former teammates. Perhaps most seriously, Spikes was suspended for four games in 2010 for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. On their own, none of the above episodes are overly consequential, but taken together, they paint Spikes as a player who could be more of a distraction than he’s worth.

But yet, as Steve Palazzolo noted on a recent PFF Podcast, in a league where 31-year-old David Harris is worth $21.5MM over three years, it’s possible that Spikes is being undervalued. Yes, two-down linebackers are increasingly less important, but as Palazzolo added, a team could sign Spikes, draft a coverage linebacker, and replicate the production of a Harris-type linebacker for half the cost.

One potential path for Spikes could be returning to Buffalo, which still had interest in re-signing its free agent linebacker as recently as March 27. Back in February, however, Bills general manager Doug Whaley said that Spikes would only return as a two-down linebacker, adding that if Spikes wanted a larger role he would have to look elsewhere. Of course, at this point, an early-down role looks like the only route for Spikes, regardless of team, but overall, Buffalo doesn’t seem overly invested in retaining Spikes.

Other clubs have expressed their interest in Spikes, including the 49ers (reeling from the loss of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland) and the Vikings. Minnesota, though, proceeded to sign fellow ILB Casey Matthews, which reportedly signaled the end of the team’s interest in Spikes. The Dolphins were also mentioned as a potential suitor, but it sounds like Koa Misi will man the middle in Miami.

So now that the dust has settled on free agency, where could Spikes fit? I’d think the Browns could make a play for him, as he’d act as a good complement to Craig Robertson, who is a solid coverage linebacker. Elsewhere, the Titans, Cardinals, Packers, Chiefs and Texans all currently list at least one inexperienced player atop their inside linebacker depth charts, so Spikes could add something of a veteran presence to each of those 3-4 schemes. Among clubs who play a 4-3 front, the Falcons could look for an upgrade over the smallish Paul Worrilow, and Spikes (at 6’2″, 255 pounds) could be an improvement.

Spikes will probably have to settle for another one-year deal, and because he’s still unsigned into April, he might have to take even less than he received in 2014. A.J. Hawk, by any measure a less-talented linebacker, will earn a $1.625MM AAV with the Bengals, a figure that should act as a floor for Spikes. Nate Irving, a good comparison for Spikes, will garner a shade less than $2.5MM per year per his deal with the Colts, so I’d guess that Spikes will earn something in that range. A team willing to play to Spikes’ strengths, and perhaps pair him with a coverage-centric linebacker, could end up finding a bargain.

South Notes: Winston, Titans, David, Draft

Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston is expected to be selected by the Buccaneers with the draft’s first overall pick, but the Titans, owners of the No. 2 pick, are covering all their bases. According to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter link), Winston will be in Nashville on Monday to meet with Titans. Tennessee met with Oregon QB Marcus Mariota today, so the club is certainly exploring every avenue when it comes to signal-callers.

Let’s take a look at more from the South divisions…

  • One of the top outside linebackers in the NFL, Lavonte David isn’t tied to a fifth-year option given that he was selected in the second round. Now that David is entering the final year of his rookie deal, Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht says extending the star OLB will be a top priority for the club following the draft (Twitter link via Roy Cummings of the Tampa Tribune).
  • Licht also allowed that the Buccaneers will probably look to select offensive lineman in the draft, noting that scheme fit will be a key concern, per Cummings (on Twitter).
  • Like the Bucs, the Panthers are in need of offensive line help, and Carolina native D.J. Humphries could be available at the end of the first round. The Florida product seems excited about the possibility of returning home, telling reporters, including David Newton of ESPN.com, that “being in Charlotte would be awesome.”
  • Given that the Titans already re-signed Derrick Morgan and brought in Brian Orakpo, Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com examines whether it makes sense for the club to target an edge rusher in the draft.