Author: Ely Allen

2025 was a proclaimed down year for quarterback prospects in the draft. New Titans quarterback Cam Ward was certainly deserving of his first-round status, but no other passers really commanded a first-round grade. Jaxson Dart ended up slipping into the back end of the first thanks to a trade up by the Giants, but Tyler Shough, Jalen Milroe, and Shedeur Sanders all slipped down to later rounds in Green Bay.

While the lack of elite talent behind Ward certainly contributed to lessened interest in reaching for passers in the first round, the potential quality of the 2026 NFL Draft class may have played a part, as well. This is especially apparent with teams like the Browns and Rams, who didn’t acquire first-round passers this year but did acquire 2026 first-round picks. Those two picks in 2026 will come in handy as Jeff Howe of The Athletic tells us that “personnel departments have been optimistic for months about the group” of passers that could declare for the next draft.

One of the main factors that could contribute to a strong quarterback class in 2026 is the status of Texas passer Arch Manning. Grandson of Archie Manning and nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning, Arch’s tenure as the Longhorns’ starter has been highly anticipated as new Dolphins passer Quinn Ewers closed out his career.

Manning has shown plenty of promise in limited time. In 12 games (two starts), Manning has completed 66 percent of his passes for 939 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions, adding four more scores on the ground. It will be interesting to see if the youth comes out of school after only three years. Though the grandfather, Archie, came out of Ole Miss after only three seasons to go second overall in the 1971 NFL Draft, he highly encouraged Peyton and Eli to stay four years apiece at their respective alma maters. Enough hype off of a strong season may be enough to lure Arch out of Austin next year, but there’s always a chance he returns to campus and diminishes the 2026 class a bit.

Even without Manning, though, there’s still plenty of talent in next year’s class. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and Penn State’s Drew Allar have consistently been billed as the next big NFL arms in college football, projecting consistently as future first-round picks. Unfortunately, the 2024 season did little to support either’s claim for a top draft spot.

After an impressive performance (395 passing yards, three touchdowns) in the Tigers’ bowl game victory over Wisconsin in 2023 (his first start), Nussmeier returned to Baton Rouge to start all 13 games in his redshirt junior season with plenty of hype. In some respects, he absolutely delivered. His 4,052 passing yards were second in the SEC this year behind only Dart (4,279), second in school history behind only Joe Burrow (5,671), and 10th in SEC history. Dart accomplished his number with 127 fewer pass attempts, though, while Burrow threw for 1,619 more yards on just two more attempts. Nussmeier also tied with Ewers and Carson Beck for the most interceptions (12) in the SEC last year. If Nussmeier can develop a more efficient passing game with more looks downfield while limiting turnovers, he may be able to retain his first-round stock next year. It would also benefit him to develop a bit more mobility; he currently has -96 career rushing yards (sacks count as negative rushing attempts in college).

At one point a five-star recruit and the top quarterback in the 2022 recruiting class, according to 247Sports, Allar has, so far, failed to live up to the hype in Happy Valley. After appearing in 10 games as a true freshman, Allar became the Nittany Lions’ full-time starter as a sophomore in 2023. He only completed 59.9 percent of his passes for 2,631 yards that season, but he became the second quarterback in FBS history to throw for 25 or more touchdowns and two or fewer interceptions after Hendon Hooker did so with 27 and two, respectively, in 2022. Allar improved his completion percentage (66.5) and passing yardage (3,327) in 16 games in 2024 (only a slight rise in yards per game), but his 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions indicated a step back. He does boast some rushing ability, though, with 560 yards and 11 touchdowns in three years. Penn State hasn’t been known for big passing numbers as they’ve transitioned from Trace McSorley to Sean Clifford to Allar, but one would expect Allar’s five-star talent to elevate the passing attack a bit more than it has. If he continues to put up lackluster numbers, he’ll still likely hear his name called in the draft, it just may not be in the first round.

One passer who may have passed both Nussmeier and Allar with his 2024 performance was Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. Another five-star recruit, and the second-ranked quarterback under Allar in the 2022 recruiting class, Klubnik was incredibly underwhelming in his first two years with the Tigers. Last year, though, Klubnik passed for 3,639 yards, 36 touchdowns, and only six interceptions while rushing for 463 yards and seven more scores. His performance led Clemson to an ACC Championship and a College Football Playoff berth. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded Klubnik as the eighth-best passer last season in the NCAA, over both Nussmeier (23rd) and Allar (32nd).

Another name drawing plenty of first-round interest is South Carolina dual-threat quarterback LaNorris Sellers. Like Manning, and unlike Nussmeier, Allar, and Klubnik, Sellers will only be a redshirt sophomore next season, but he showed flashes of serious star potential in 2024 that has scouts licking their chops. Barely registering any time as a true freshman, Sellers entered this past fall as the Gamecocks’ starter. Missing a game and a half with injury, Sellers put up a 65.6 percent completion rate, 2,534 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while rushing for 674 yards and seven more scores. He got off to a slow start, but starting with the team’s seventh matchup of the year, Sellers blew up, averaging 249 passing yards per game and 65 rushing yards per game while scoring 18 touchdowns (14 passing, four rushing) and throwing only three picks. The team ended the regular season on a six-game winning streak before losing its bowl game.

Two other names that scouts are dog-earring early are Nico Iamaleava and Fernando Mendoza, who have both transferred to new schools for 2025. Iamaleava is heading to UCLA after two seasons in Tennessee. Becoming a full-time starter for the Volunteers as a redshirt freshman, Iamaleava helped Tennessee win 10 games. His passing numbers (2,616 yards, 19 touchdowns, five interceptions) and rushing numbers (358 yards, three touchdowns) were only small contributions, though, for a team that was carried by a strong run game and defense. Still, Iamaleava’s ball security should be valued on a Bruins team that saw Ethan Garbers throw 11 interceptions in a disappointing senior campaign last year.

Mendoza is heading to Indiana after nearly two full years as the starter at Cal. Mendoza took over as the Golden Bears’ starter in the sixth game of the team’s 2023 campaign and started every game for the rest of the year. He started 11 games for Cal in 2024, averaging 273.1 yards per game for 16 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He also displays some decent mobility out of the pocket. Mendoza and former Indiana passer Kurtis Rourke will essentially switch cities with Rourke landing with the 49ers in the draft. Under head coach Curt Cignetti, Mendoza could have a breakout year with the Hoosiers.

And these are just the preseason names marked with first-round potential. At this time last year, Ward was considered a likely Day 3 option. Howe notes options like Ward’s successor at Miami, Beck, Dart’s successor at Ole Miss, Austin Simmons, Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt, Baylor’s Sawyer Robinson, and Kansas State’s Avery Johnson all as names that could skyrocket up the board with strong 2025 campaigns. Another one of Ward’s successors, John Mateer, who followed Ward as the starter at Washington State last year, is primed to be a contender, as well, in 2025 after transferring to Oklahoma.

For now, this is a ton of speculation. With the nature of the draft and transfer portal, so many of these quarterbacks’ teams will look extremely different in 2025, and it could really affect their performances as a result, potentially making 2026’s quarterback crop as thin as 2025’s. Small school or FCS passers could force their way into the conversation, as well. Or any number of these players could defer to the 2027 NFL Draft and make that year’s class even stronger. Regardless, teams like the Browns and Rams, with extra first-round picks next year, are feeling much more optimistic about the quarterback depth of the 2026 NFL Draft.