Extension Candidate: Justin Tucker
Landing a kicker may be an afterthought when you’re putting together a fantasy football team, but it’s far from that for most clubs around the NFL. Recent contracts at the position have shown that locking up a reliable kicker for several years is a priority for NFL squads — within the last year alone, Sebastian Janikowski re-upped with the Raiders for nearly $3.8MM per year, with $8MM in guaranteed money, and Robbie Gould and Dan Bailey both landed guarantees of nearly $5MM with their respective teams.
Those figures may not seem significant when compared to some positions on the field, but just ask 2014’s crop of free agent running backs how good those guarantees look. No one in this year’s class of free agent backs even matched Gould’s and Bailey’s $4.9MM, let alone Janikowski’s $8MM.
The recent string of lucrative contracts for kickers bodes well for Justin Tucker of the Ravens, whose deal the club is reportedly trying to extend. As Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com writes today, a contract extension for Tucker seems to be in the best interests of both the team and the player. The Ravens would secure one of the league’s most reliable kickers, who led the NFL in field goals made (38) in 2013. And Tucker would receive a little more financial security after playing for the minimum salary for his first few years in the league.
While the Ravens have a few extension candidates on the roster, including wide receiver Torrey Smith and cornerback Jimmy Smith, Hensley views Tucker as the player most likely to receive a new deal before the coming season. Baltimore could put off an extension for another year and retain the kicker at an affordable rate when he hits restricted free agency in 2015, but ensuring he’s under contract for several years beyond that seems to be a priority for the team.
During his two years with the Ravens, Tucker has missed just six kicks, connecting on 68 of 74 field goal attempts (91.9%), as well as all 68 of his extra-point tries. He has also shown a knack for connecting on long kicks, missing just one of his 11 career attempts from 50+ yards and memorably making a game-winning 61-yarder in a Monday Night Football game last year against the Lions. At age 24, the former Texas Longhorn appears poised to remain among the league’s elite kickers for years to come, meaning his next contract should reflect that.
As OverTheCap.com’s data shows, the going rate for top NFL kickers is $3MM+ per year, with 10 players currently averaging above that threshold — Janikowski’s $3.775MM annual value is tops at the position. Given his 91.9% success rate on field goals so far, Tucker could make the case that his annual salary ought to rival the top earners at his position, including Janikowski (79.9% career rate), Gould (86.0%), and Josh Scobee (81.1%).
Of course, with just 74 career FG attempts, Tucker’s track record isn’t exactly extensive, so the Ravens could point to that small sample size and argue that he doesn’t quite deserve to be the league’s highest-paid kicker, but that they’re willing to put him among the league’s seven or eight highest-paid. To that end, Bailey’s recent extension with the Cowboys could provide a logical point of comparison.
Like Tucker, Bailey doesn’t have an incredibly lengthy track record of NFL success, but the Cowboys kicker has converted 89 of 98 field goal attempts (90.8%) early in his career and was just 25 when he inked his extension. While no other kicker is currently locked up beyond the 2017 season, Bailey’s deal keeps him under team control through 2020, at a rate of $3.214MM annually, with nearly $5MM in guaranteed money.
I think the Ravens would be amenable to a similar deal for Tucker, though perhaps the Baltimore kicker would prefer something shorter-term, or with a larger guarantee — Bailey’s $4.9MM in guaranteed money is tied for second most among kickers, but the extra years on the pact mean that only 21.8% of his total salary is guaranteed, which doesn’t compare favorably to other top players at the position.
With Tucker eligible for restricted, rather than unrestricted, free agency at year’s end, there isn’t quite as much urgency for the Ravens to complete a deal soon, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the team announced an extension for its kicker before the 2014 season begins. In that event, I’d expect an annual salary approaching $3.5MM — the length of the deal and the size of the guarantee will be the real points of contention that the two sides figure to haggle over in the coming weeks, and perhaps longer than that.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NFC East Links: Giants, Cowboys, Hankerson
As we continue counting down the days until NFL training camps open, let’s check in on a few of the latest items out of the NFC East….
- The Giants were among the teams that passed on Johnny Manziel in this year’s draft, but even if the club needed a quarterback, it sounds as if its interest in Manziel may have been lukewarm. Co-owner Steve Tisch told TMZ (link via Cleveland.com) that the former Texas A&M star’s lifestyle would concern him if Manziel was a Giant. “I think if you sort of look at the culture and the history of the Giants, he really doesn’t fit the profile of, historically, New York Giants football players,” Tisch said.
- Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap continued his series on the best and worst contracts for each team today with a look at the Giants. In Fitzgerald’s opinion, New York’s offseason signing of cornerback Walter Thurmond gave the club its best contract, while offensive tackle William Beatty has the roster’s least team-friendly deal. Fitzgerald adds that another offseason signee, cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, was a close “runner-up” for the Giants’ worst contract.
- The Cowboys invested a top-10 draft pick in Morris Claiborne and $50MM in Brandon Carr, and will need both cornerbacks to be better than they were last year if they hope to contend in 2014, writes Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News. According to Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required), Carr ranked 58th and Claiborne placed 88th among 110 qualified corners in 2013.
- As wide receiver Leonard Hankerson continues to recover from an ACL injury, Mike Jones of the Washington Post wonders if there will be a role on the Redskins‘ offense for him when he gets healthy.
Latest On NFL Supplemental Draft
A pair of prospects eligible for this month’s NFL supplemental draft recently held Pro Days, which were attended by a handful of teams, according to various reports. Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk hears from agent Louis Bing that the Cowboys, Texans, Packers, Colts, Lions, Giants, Seahawks, Dolphins, and Bears were in attendance to watch SMU running back Traylon Shead work out. Meanwhile, according to NFLDraftDiamonds.com (via PFT), the Bears, Cardinals, Chiefs, Colts, Eagles, Falcons, 49ers, Patriots, Raiders, Rams, and Texans attended the workout for former Virginia-Lynchburg defensive lineman LaKendrick Ross.
As Dan Pompei of Bleacher Report wrote last month when he previewed 2014’s supplemental draft, it doesn’t project to be too exciting an affair, with Shead, Ross, and New Mexico wideout Chase Clayton among the players eligible. A year ago, none of the six players eligible for the 2013 supplemental draft were selected, and it looks like this year’s crop of players won’t warrant more than late-round picks, if they’re taken at all.
The supplemental draft is intended to accommodate players who missed the deadline for May’s NFL draft or were declared ineligible for another reason. In some cases, players eligible for the supplemental draft land there as a result of being declared academically ineligible in the NCAA, or being kicked off of a team — this helps to explain why some of the more notable players selected in recent supplemental drafts – such as Josh Brent and Josh Gordon – have had off-field concerns.
If a team wants to select a player in the supplemental draft, it must let the league know the round in which it’s willing to select that player. The club which submits the highest round will receive the player and forfeit a 2015 draft pick in that same round. For instance, when the Browns used a second-round supplemental choice on Gordon in 2012, it meant that the team lost its second-round pick for the 2013 draft.
Latest On Josh Gordon
Josh Gordon made the wrong kind of headlines once again this weekend when he was arrested early Saturday morning in North Carolina under suspicion of driving while impaired. Our Rory Parks rounded up several links yesterday dealing with the fallout of the Browns wideout’s latest transgression, and we heard this morning that former teammate D’Qwell Jackson and others close to Gordon believe he needs to seek help.
Others have weighed in today on the Gordon saga, debating whether or not the Browns should even keep him on their roster as they await word on his upcoming suspension. Here’s the latest:
- Hall of Fame wide receiver Cris Carter, who overcame his own issues with alcohol and cocaine, explained to Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer why he believes the Browns ought to cut Gordon. “He loves football more than anything, so I would take that away,” Carter said. “When I say they should cut him, I say that because I believe that will be the catalyst to help. When you’re falling in life, at some point you have to make a bottom floor and say ‘This is it for me. I’m going to establish my house on this right here. And I’m going to build up.'”
- Carter added that GM Ray Farmer should tell Gordon that the team will sign him to a new contract when he gets clean and gets reinstated. “He needs to learn to live substance-free, and the team isn’t going to be able to help him do that now,” Carter said. “If he wants to play football, he’s going to have to show substantial progress in the next year for the NFL to allow him to play ever again. I’m not concerned about the Browns. I’m concerned about the team they put around him now.”
- Cabot hears from a source that the Browns have reached out to several professionals and are in the process of assembling a support team for Gordon.
- Former Jets head coach Herm Edwards disagrees with Carter’s assessment, suggesting he wouldn’t cut Gordon because “you’re not trying to shock the guy; you’re trying to help (him)” (Twitter links via Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal).
- According to Tom Reed of the Northeast Ohio Media Group, now is not the time for the Browns to cut Gordon. In Reed’s view, the team shares culpability in Gordon’s infractions and needs to do what it can to help support him.
- ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert believes that speculation about Gordon’s NFL career potentially being done is overblown, and says that the wideout’s performance on the field last season “provides enormous incentive” for those around him to do everything they can to make sure he gets straightened out.
Poll: Jordy Nelson Vs. Randall Cobb
During the past two offseasons, the Packers have witnessed the departure of several of Aaron Rodgers‘ longtime pass-catching weapons. In 2013, Donald Driver retired and Greg Jennings signed a lucrative five-year deal to join the division-rival Vikings, and in 2014, James Jones headed west, inking a three-year pact with the Raiders. Additionally, Jermichael Finley, who is coming off spinal surgery, has reportedly not been cleared by the Packers’ team doctor, making a reunion with the free agent tight end unlikely at this point.
Two more veteran Green Bay receivers are on contracts that expire after the 2014 season, but Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb seem less likely to be playing elsewhere in 2015. The Packers reportedly have interest in locking up both players to contract extensions, ensuring that they’ll remain two of Rodgers’ top targets for years to come.
In Rob Demovsky’s latest mailbag at ESPN.com, he writes that the Packers may be inclined to reach an agreement with Nelson “sooner rather than later,” so that the team can subsequently move on to Cobb. While Demovsky doesn’t cite specific sources in his response to the latest Nelson/Cobb inquiry, he’s plugged into what the Packers’ front office is thinking, and his comments suggest that Nelson may be the club’s first priority.
Nelson established himself as the Packers’ No. 1 receiver in 2013, setting new career highs in receptions (85) and receiving yards (1,314), despite Rodgers missing a chunk of the season. So it makes sense that the team would prioritize a new agreement with him. On the other hand, Cobb, who had 80 receptions of his own in 2012, looked poised to take on a bigger role in the offense last season before he was sidelined with an injury of his own. Cobb doesn’t have the sort of size you’d expect for a prototypical top receiver, but he’s five years younger than Nelson, and his versatility allows the Packers to utilize him in a number of different ways — he has averaged an impressive 15 yards per carry over the last two seasons, for instance.
What do you think? When the Packers approach their wideouts about contract extensions, which player should the team be more intent on keeping? Who’s the No. 1 priority?
Hasselbeck Hopes To Play For Colts Beyond ’14
Matt Hasselbeck is entering the final season of his two-year contract as Andrew Luck‘s backup in Indianapolis, but if it were up to him, his time with the Colts may extend past 2014. As he tells Kevin Bowen of Colts.com, Hasselbeck would love to continue his playing career in Indianapolis in 2015 and beyond.
“Ideally, that would be a dream come true,” Hasselbeck said. “There’s no timetable where I need to make a call on that, but I set a short term goal of finishing my contract. I’m close to accomplishing that and if I do, I’ll have to figure out a new goal.”
One of the NFL’s longest-tenured players, Hasselbeck was a sixth-round pick in 1998, and has played for the Packers, Seahawks, Titans, and Colts during over the course of the last decade and a half. While he has 152 career starts to his name, the 38-year-old has transitioned into a backup role late in his career, and likely will only see the field in blowout wins or losses in ’14, barring an injury to Luck.
Still, at $3.625MM per year, Hasselbeck is one of the league’s highest-paid backups. If the Colts have interest in re-signing the veteran signal-caller when his current contract expires, it would likely be at a slightly more modest rate. We’ll have to wait and see whether Indianapolis wants to move on to a younger option, but the club showed this offseason that it doesn’t mind employing players well into their 40s, re-signing kicker Adam Vinatieri to a two-year contract that will keep him under team control until he turns 43.
AFC Links: Texans, Jets, Ravens, Titans, Bills
The Texans and Jets may have added their starting quarterbacks for 2014 in free agency this offseason, with Houston inking Ryan Fitzpatrick to a two-year deal and New York signing Michael Vick to a one-year pact. Fitzpatrick sits atop the depth chart for the Texans, and Vick figures to push Geno Smith for the starting job in New York. However, both teams made more under-the-radar signings that Lorenzo Reyes praises in his most recent piece for USA Today, with the Texans adding running back Andre Brown and the Jets landing cornerback Dimitri Patterson. According to Reyes, while these moves didn’t receive the same sort of attention that other offseason transactions did in Houston or New York, they could ultimately pay major dividends.
We examined Houston’s offseason activity last night, and will be shifting our focus to the Jets and the rest of the AFC East this week. In the meantime, here are a few more links from across the AFC:
- Albert Breer of the NFL Network takes an in-depth look at the reasons why players should (or should not) hold out, using J.J. Watt of the Texans and Justin Houston of the Chiefs as a pair of examples. As Breer outlines, Watt may have the leverage this offseason to hold out for a new deal, though there has been no indication that he’ll do so. Meanwhile, Houston’s situation is more tenuous, since he could potentially forfeit an accrued season and a chance at future unrestricted free agency if he misses too much of Kansas City’s training camp.
- The NFL shouldn’t punish the Ravens along with Ray Rice by continuing to delay its announcement on a suspension for the running back, writes Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com, who wonders why the league is taking so long to make its decision.
- A pair of offensive linemen receive best and worst contract honors in Jason Fitzgerald’s look at the Titans‘ books at OverTheCap.com. In Fitzgerald’s view, Michael Roos is playing on the most team-friendly deal on the roster, while recently-signed tackle Michael Oher has the Titans’ worst contract.
- As Mike Rodak of ESPN.com details, the Bills are using less than $4MM in cap space on their quarterbacks this season, meaning that even if there are no above-average signal callers on the roster, at least the team isn’t overpaying anyone at the position.
Werder On Graham, Saints, Josh Gordon
ESPN NFL insider Ed Werder reported earlier today that the Saints are expected to resume contract negotiations with tight end Jimmy Graham this week, but that wasn’t Werder’s only morning update. He has a few more details on Graham, as well as a note on troubled Browns receiver Josh Gordon, so let’s round up the highlights….
- Sources tell Werder that Stephen Burbank’s decision to consider Graham a tight end rather than a wide receiver made the Saints star more appealing to other teams around the NFL. Somewhat lost in the dispute over Graham’s position is the fact that he’s still technically a free agent, albeit a restricted one — if another team is willing to give up two future first-round picks, it could sign the 27-year-old to an offer sheet and hope New Orleans decides not to match it.
- As Werder notes, clubs expecting to draft in the 27-32 range in the first round next year could be top candidates to pursue Graham, since the draft-pick penalty wouldn’t be so harsh. Werder identifies the Patriots, Colts, and Falcons as possible teams to watch. However, he doesn’t believe the Packers would consider such a move since they value their draft picks highly and want to maintain room to re-sign Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.
- Of course, as Joel Corry of CBSSports.com tweets, many teams expecting to pick late in the first round don’t have the cap space to make Graham an offer that the Saints would have trouble matching. Of the teams mentioned by Werder, the Colts – with $13MM+ in room – are best positioned from a cap perspective.
- As for Gordon, sources tell Werder (Twitter link) that some people close to the Browns wideout have been urging him “to seek professional assistance for substance-abuse issues” since high school. Gordon’s former Cleveland teammate, D’Qwell Jackson, is among those imploring those around him to reach out. “He needs help, he really does,” Jackson said, according to James Walker of ESPN.com. “He needs people to extend themselves and probably have to do more than they wanted to do. But if [the Browns] care anything about the kid, they have to do it.”
- More Jackson on Gordon: “[He] was a big piece of the Browns‘ future; It’s just unfortunate he didn’t view it that way. He is so valuable. He doesn’t understand how valuable he is to an organization. He has no clue.”
Graham, Saints Expected To Resume Talks Soon
Talks between the Saints and Jimmy Graham appeared to be essentially nonexistent leading up to Graham’s grievance hearing on his positional designation, but the team’s previous contract offer to the tight end still stands, as we heard last week. And with next Tuesday’s deadline looming, the Saints are expected to resume negotiations with Graham’s camp at some point this week, sources tell Ed Werder of ESPN.com (Twitter link).
While the 27-year-old could end up playing the 2014 season on his one-year franchise tag, it seems to be in both sides’ best interests to work out a longer-term deal that will keep the star pass-catcher in New Orleans for several years. However, the deadline for franchise players to reach multiyear agreements with their respective teams is July 15, so talks between Graham and the Saints will have to accelerate within the next week if the two sides hope to meet that deadline. Graham’s camp also still has the option of appealing arbitrator Stephen Burbank’s ruling to a three-person board, which would further complicate the chances of meeting that deadline.
According to multiple reports, the Saints are willing to make Graham the highest-paid tight end in football, exceeding Rob Gronkowski‘s $9MM annual figure. Although Graham almost certainly won’t attain the $12MM average annual value he was initially seeking, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the two sides ultimately compromised on a per-year figure in the neighborhood of $10MM.
Poll: Who Will Win The AFC South?
No NFL team in 2013 won its division by a more significant margin than the Colts, whose 11 regular-season victories were nearly as many as the combined total of 13 compiled by the other three teams in their division. On the surface, a seven-win Titans squad that didn’t noticeably improve this offseason shouldn’t pose a real threat to Indianapolis in 2014, and the 4-12 Jaguars and 2-14 Texans would both have to pull off massive turnarounds to challenge for the division crown.
Still, as betting site Bovada.lv shows, although the Colts head into 2014 as the frontrunners to win the AFC South again, they’re not massive favorites. Vegas’ oddsmakers appreciated the work done by the Texans this winter and spring — while the team didn’t make many substantial free agent additions, it added No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney to a defensive line that already featured J.J. Watt. It’s safe to say Andrew Luck and other quarterbacks around the division aren’t looking forward to seeing those two fearsome pass rushers on the other side of the ball twice a season. This is also a Houston club that’s only a year removed from an 11-win season and seems poised for at least a moderate bounce back — the performance of new signal-caller Ryan Fitzpatrick may determine exactly how far the Texans can go.
The Titans, meanwhile, shouldn’t be overlooked, even though I think they’ll be hard-pressed to match even last year’s win total. A younger, more diverse backfield could easily be more productive than Chris Johnson was in his last season in Tennessee, and new coach Ken Whisenhunt has done good work with quarterbacks in the past — perhaps his influence will help Jake Locker exceed expectations in a contract year.
As for the Jags, they’re probably at least a year or two from making any real noise in the South, but the team made some nice, under-the-radar veteran additions in the offseason, including defensive ends Red Bryant and Chris Clemons, guard Zane Beadles, linebacker Dekoda Watson, defensive lineman Ziggy Hood, and running back Toby Gerhart. Like so many other teams, their fortunes will likely come down to quarterback play. While Chad Henne‘s upside is limited, No. 3 pick Blake Bortles could put more pressure on defenses if he gets a chance to play in his rookie year.
What do you think? Do any of the division’s other squads have a chance to unseat Indianapolis at the top of the AFC South this year, or will Luck and the Colts repeat?
Previously:
Who will win the AFC North?
Who will win the AFC West?