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Offseason In Review: Indianapolis Colts

July 24th, 2015 at 8:54pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

The 2014 campaign ended horrifically for the Colts, whose season came crashing down in a 45-7 loss to the Patriots in the AFC championship game. In response, Indy spent the offseason adding multiple established veterans on both sides of the ball in hopes of overthrowing the Pats and earning a Super Bowl trip for the first time since the 2009-10 season.

Notable signings:

The Colts had the NFL’s third-ranked offense last year, but that belied a subpar rushing attack that finished 22nd in yardage and 25th in per-attempt average. Their most productive back, Ahmad Bradshaw, suffered a season-ending broken fibula in November. Bradshaw was hardly a workhorse when healthy, though, exceeding double-digit carries just four times in 10 games. Enter Frank Gore, the longtime 49er whom the Colts signed to a three-year, $12MM deal in free agency. Gore gives the Colts something they’ve been missing for a while – a durable, productive back. Despite his advanced age relative to the position, the 32-year-old Gore’s production certainly hasn’t stalled. In 2014, the 10-year veteran appeared in all 16 games, surpassed the 250-carry mark, and rushed for 1,100-plus yards. It was the fourth straight season in which Gore accomplished all three of those feats simultaneously. Moreover, he has never amassed fewer than 4.1 yards per carry in a season – another welcome change for a Colts team whose previous leading rusher, Trent Richardson, totaled a paltry 3.3 yards per attempt last year.

The Colts’ other big offensive move in free agency was to further beef up an Andrew Luck-led passing game that led the league in yardage last year. Indy signed wideout Andre Johnson, who had been with AFC South rival Houston his entire career (since 2003), to a three-year, $21MM contract. Like Gore, the 34-year-old Johnson is on the wrong end of the aging curve, but he also remains a viable weapon. Johnson caught 85 passes last season, though he averaged a meager 11.0 yards per reception (his lowest total since 2005) and racked up only three touchdowns. Bear in mind, though, that Johnson isn’t far removed from a two-year stretch that saw him haul in 221 catches and over 3,000 yards from 2012-13. Additionally, Johnson stands to benefit from the presence of Luck, who is far more talented than any quarterback he played with in Houston. In Johnson, Luck should have another solid target to accompany T.Y. Hilton, Indy’s undisputed No. 1 receiver, first-round wideout Phillip Dorsett and tight end Coby Fleener.

Defensively, the Colts finished a respectable 11th in the league last season. However, the Patriots exposed them twice – once in a 42-20 November shellacking and in the aforementioned AFC title game blowout. New England rushed for a ridiculous 423 yards in those games, and quarterback Tom Brady was basically untouched in both matchups (Indy sacked him once in total). The Colts responded to the latter issue by signing a couple of vets in linebacker Trent Cole (two years, $14MM) and lineman Kendall Langford (four years, $17.2MM).

The 32-year-old Cole added 6.5 sacks for the Eagles last season, giving him 85.5 during the decade he spent in Philadelphia, and Pro Football Focus ranked him a solid 12th out of 46 qualifying OLBs (subscription required) for his pass rushing.

As for Langford, the most impressive fact about the seven-year veteran’s career is that he never missed a game in either of his previous stops (Miami and St. Louis). He’s just two years removed from a career-high five-sack season and thinks the best is yet to come as part of the Colts’ 3-4 defense.

“I feel like I’m back at home in a 3-4 scheme,” Langford told the Colts’ official website last month. “I’m excited about it.”

Head coach Chuck Pagano echoed Langford’s sentiment.

“Kendall Langford, you guys are going to be surprised,” Pagano said. “You think we just brought in a run stopper, but he’s shown in some of these 11-on-11 drills that he’s got some pass rush capabilities, will get push inside.”

The Colts’ pass rush looks better on paper with the acquisitions of Cole and Langford and the return of linebacker Robert Mathis – who led the league with 19.5 sacks in 2013 before missing all of last year with a torn Achilles’. While the Colts did rank ninth in sacks in 2014, they lacked fearsome pass rushers and had to rely too much on blitzing to generate pressure.

Elsewhere on defense, the Colts retained three of their own key players – linebacker Jerrell Freeman, cornerback Darius Butler and Pro Bowl safety Mike Adams – and signed ex-Broncos LB Nate Irving. The Colts hope the 27-year-old Irving, whom PFF ranked 12th among 60 qualifying 3-4 ILBs against opposing ground games last year (subscription required), can help improve their 18th-ranked run defense and make less them less vulnerable against teams like the Patriots.

Notable losses:

The Colts said goodbye to some recognizable names during the offseason, including Reggie Wayne – one of the franchise’s all-time best players – but general manager Ryan Grigson adequately replaced most of them. Johnson, Dorsett and second-year man Donte Moncrief will do more than enough at wideout to make the losses of Wayne and Hakeem Nicks easy to swallow. If his career is any indication, Gore will be a major improvement over both Bradshaw and Richardson. Langford, on the other hand, has his work cut out for him in grabbing the reins along the D-line from the retired Cory Redding and the released Ricky Jean-Francois, who combined for 1,300-plus snaps last year. Redding was particularly impressive in 2014, appearing in over 70 percent of Indy’s defensive snaps and drawing significant praise from PFF for his play.

Trades:

  • Acquired a 2015 third-round pick (No. 65; CB D’Joun Smith) and a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 109; S Clayton Geathers) from the Buccaneers in exchange for a 2015 second-round pick (No. 61; G Ali Marpet) and a 2015 fourth-round pick (No. 128).
  • Acquired a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 151; DT David Parry) from the 49ers in exchange for a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 165; P Bradley Pinion) and a 2015 seventh-round pick (No. 244; OL Trenton Brown).

Extensions/Restructures:

Draft picks:

  • 1-29: Phillip Dorsett, WR (Miami): Signed
  • 3-65: D’Joun Smith, CB (Florida Atlantic): Signed
  • 3-93: Henry Anderson, DE (Stanford): Signed
  • 4-109: Clayton Geathers, S (UCF): Signed
  • 5-151: David Parry, DT (Stanford): Signed
  • 6-205: Josh Robinson, RB (Mississippi State): Signed
  • 6-207: Amarlo Herrera, LB (Georgia): Signed
  • 7-255: Denzelle Good, T (Mars Hill): Signed

The Colts pulled off a surprise in the first round when they added yet another receiver in Dorsett, an ex-Miami Hurricane who tries to make up for less-than-ideal size (5-foot-10, 185 pounds) with explosiveness (a 40-yard dash time of 4.29, 24.2 yards per catch in college). Dorsett is similar to the 5-9, 178-pound Hilton in stature and style, and one wonders if the Colts chose the former as a potential long-term replacement for the latter. Hilton could potentially depart Indy as a free agent next offseason, which would leave the Colts looking for a star-caliber, field-stretching wideout. Regardless of what happens with Hilton, the Colts hope Dorsett can be just that, and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton expects him to make an immediate impact.

“His play speed is exceptional,” Hamilton told Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star (Twitter link). “We can attack the field vertically.”

Indy also may have added another couple immediate impact types in a pair of third-round picks, cornerback D’Joun Smith and defensive end Henry Anderson.

Smith, who intercepted nine passes at Florida Atlantic (including seven in 2013), gives the Colts depth behind Vontae Davis, Darius Butler and Greg Toler, and could wrest playing time from the latter two if they don’t improve on last year’s performance. Both Butler and Toler surrendered ratings of over 102 to opposing quarterbacks, according to PFF – which ranked Butler 67th and Toler 99th, respectively, out of 108 qualifying corners (subscription required).

If Smith’s anywhere near as good as he is confident, he’ll be a huge pickup for the Colts.

“Under the right tutelage and the right coach that’s going to make my technique even better, I’m probably going to be the best cornerback to play the game,” Smith told the Colts’ website in May.

As for Anderson, the Colts picked the ex-Stanford Cardinal 93rd overall after a standout college career (first-team All-Pac-12 in 2014).

“He’s what you’re looking for at end in this defense,” Grigson said, according to Colts.com.  “I know we’re going to have him for a long time.

For his part, Anderson said in May that he’s “really excited about coming in and providing as much help as possible to the defense.”

Given the losses of Redding and Jean-Francois, Anderson is likely to have the opportunity this year to quickly become a fixture along Indy’s D-line.

Other:

  • Exercised 2016 fifth-year option for QB Andrew Luck ($16.155MM).
  • Signed 10 players to reserve/futures contracts.
  • Signed 15 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.

The Colts made the no-brainer decision to keep Luck in the fold for at least two more seasons, exercising his fifth-year option for 2016. The question is when, not if, they’ll ink him to a deal that keeps him a Colt for the duration of his career. Since the Colts chose Luck with the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft, he has started all 52 of their games (playoffs included), led them to three straight double-digit-win outputs, and thrown for 86 touchdowns and nearly 13,000 yards in the regular season. He’ll be paid handsomely for his performance and status as the face of Indy’s franchise, and ESPN’s Mike Wells wrote earlier this week that the Colts and Luck will get to work on a contract extension after the upcoming season.

Top 10 cap hits for 2015:

  1. Vontae Davis, CB: $11,250,000
  2. Andre Johnson, WR: $7,500,000
  3. Robert Mathis, OLB: $7,470,586
  4. Anthony Castonzo, LT: $7,438,000
  5. Arthur Jones, DL: $7,100,000
  6. Andrew Luck, QB: $7,034,363
  7. Trent Cole, OLB: $6,953,125
  8. Gosder Cherilus, RT: $6,900,000
  9. Greg Toler, CB: $5,833,334
  10. D’Qwell Jackson, LB: $5,750,000

After a productive offseason, the Colts look like a better team than the one that made the final four last year. At the very least, barring injuries, their two-year reign atop the AFC South should extend to a third season. That would mean a fourth straight playoff berth, which could lead to a third consecutive January confrontation with the Patriots – who have humiliated the Colts in back-to-back postseasons.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.

AFC Notes: Broncos, Colts, Raiders

July 24th, 2015 at 8:46pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Here’s the latest from around the AFC as Friday wraps up:

  • Broncos defensive lineman Antonio Smith missed voluntary offseason workouts because of an ongoing investigation into criminal abuse allegations against him in Texas. However, he could be with the Broncos when veterans report to their training camp Thursday, Nicki Jhabvala and Troy Renck of the Denver Post report. The 10-year veteran spent last season with AFC West rival Oakland, racking up three sacks (giving him 44.5 for his career), before signing with Denver as a free agent.
  • Kansas City’s Justin Houston signed the richest deal ever for a linebacker earlier this month (six years, $101.5MM with $52.5MM guaranteed), which sets the bar for the Broncos’ Von Miller‘s next contract, writes Jhabvala. “I guarantee you Von thinks he deserves Justin Houston money,” Joel Corry of CBS Sports, an ex-agent, told Jhabvala. By career sack total alone, Miller has a case: He has 49 in four seasons, while Houston has 48.5 in the same amount of years.
  • It’s always risky to expect big things from a player returning from a torn Achilles’, which Colts pass rusher Robert Mathis is doing this season, but head coach Chuck Pagano has high hopes for the 34-year-old linebacker. “He will make a huge impact this season,” Pagano said, according to ESPN’s Ed Werder (via Twitter). Mathis missed all of last season after leading the league in sacks with 19.5 in 2013.
  • In other Colts news, Kevin Bowen of the team’s official website wrote of the concerns centering on the club’s offensive line as the season nears. Indy needs a major bounce-back season from veteran right tackle Gosder Cherilus, who struggled with injuries and poor play last year, and for newly signed Todd Herremans to be the answer at right guard.
  • Running back Latavius Murray was one of the Raiders’ few standouts last season, rushing for 424 yards on 82 attempts (a sterling 5.2 per-carry average) during his first year of action. Oakland is counting on him to be its No. 1 back this season, writes Scott Bair of CSNBayArea.com. That would mean a significant increase in workload for the 2013 sixth-round pick.

Colts Agree To Terms With Two Third-Rounders

July 24th, 2015 at 8:14pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

The Colts have agreed to terms with cornerback D’Joun Smith and defensive lineman Henry Anderson, their third-round picks from this year’s NFL draft, according to ESPN’s Mike Wells (Twitter link). Smith will get a four-year, $3.5MM deal (800k signing bonus), while Anderson will receive $2.9MM (610k bonus) over four years, Mike Chappell of CBS4 reports (via Twitter).

Smith and Anderson were the last two unsigned picks from the league’s 2015 draft class, meaning all 256 selections from this year are now under contract.

Smith, whom the Colts chose 65th overall out of Florida Atlantic, intercepted nine passes in college and is expected to vie for playing time in a cornerback corps that is shaky after No. 1 man Vontae Davis.

Anderson, who was first-team All-Pac-12 in 2014 before the Colts took him 93rd out of Stanford, could make an immediate impact along Indy’s D-line.

Extra Points: Colts, Galette, Falcons

July 22nd, 2015 at 8:35pm CST by Zachary Links

Colts GM Ryan Grigson recently told Mike Chappell of CBS4 (Twitter link) that there were “language issues” to finalize when it came to deals for cornerback D’Joun Smith and defensive lineman Henry Anderson. Grigson added that there was no reason to believe those contracts wouldn’t get done for the two third-round draftees before August 1st. Smith and Anderson are the only remaining unsigned rookies now that Marcus Mariota and the Titans have reached agreement.

Here are a few more Wednesday evening odds and ends from around the league:

  • NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy told Evan Woodbery of The Times-Picayune that there is no update on outside linebacker Junior Galette‘s status with the Saints, just one week away from the start of training camp. McCarthy said the NFL would not comment or even confirm on whether there was meeting between Galette and league officials. “We consider a meeting a confidential part of the process between our office and the player,” he said.
  • This offseason, the Falcons moved on from veteran running back Steven Jackson and will go with a younger group at the position. D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution takes a look at the group, headlined by Devonta Freeman, a fourth-round pick in 2014 and Tevin Coleman, a third-round pick in 2015.
  • Commissioner Roger Goodell told Mark Kaboly of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (Twitter link) on Tuesday that the NFL won’t expand past 32 teams. Interestingly enough, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred recently said that he will at least explore the idea of expansion.
  • The Raiders could use another young player to step up and create depth on the interior defensive line, Scott Bair of CSNBayArea.com writes. Still, Oakland did add some size to its line this offseason with the signing of Dan Williams in free agency. C.J. Wilson, meanwhile, is expected to serve as a super-sub for the Raiders.

Community Tailgate: Who Will Win AFC South?

July 22nd, 2015 at 4:15pm CST by Luke Adams

We’re still several weeks away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this summer, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

As the 2015 season inches closer, we’re examining each NFL division, asking you which team you expect to finish atop the East, North, South, and West. Having already taken a closer look at the East and North divisions, along with the NFC South, we’re shifting our focus to the AFC South, perhaps the league’s most lopsided division.

According to betting site Bovada.lv, no NFL team is more likely to win its division than the Colts, who are even heavier favorites in the AFC South than the Packers, Seahawks, or Patriots are in their respective divisions. That’s not a surprise. After all, the Colts have won the division by multiple games in each of the last two seasons, averaging 11 wins per year while their division rivals average just 4.5 wins.

There’s not much reason to expect the Colts to fall off in 2015 either, with Andrew Luck continuing to improve, and veterans like Frank Gore and Andre Johnson now at his disposal, along with first-round receiver Phillip Dorsett. There are still some questions on the defensive side of the ball in Indianapolis, but as long as Luck stays healthy, those defensive shortcomings may not be a factor until the postseason.

While the Colts aren’t necessarily one of the league’s most dominant teams, the lack of competition in the AFC South contributes to Indianapolis’ strong odds to win the division. The Titans and Jaguars finished 2-14 and 3-13 respectively a year ago, and while they may not be quite that dismal again this year, it’s hard to imagine either team making a playoff push, even with some encouraging free agent additions in Jacksonville, and new quarterback Marcus Mariota in Tennessee.

That leaves the Texans as the team most likely to challenge the Colts for the AFC South crown, as they did a year ago, finishing 9-7. J.J. Watt has a greater impact on a given game than any other defender in the league, and a healthy Jadeveon Clowney would make that Houston D even more dangerous. But there’s still no clear-cut solution at the quarterback position, where Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett will battle for the No. 1 job. Additionally, with Johnson in Indianapolis, Arian Foster and DeAndre Hopkins will be asked to carry a significant load on offense, and the unit could be in real trouble if either player gets hurt.

What do you think? Will the Texans knock the Colts out of the top spot? Will the Jaguars or Texans make a surprise run for the division? Or will the Colts cruise to another division title? Who do you expect to win the AFC South? Weigh in below in the comment section with your thoughts!

AFC Mailbags: Chiefs, Colts, Jags, Bengals

July 18th, 2015 at 10:48am CST by Ben Levine

It’s Saturday morning, and that means ESPN.com’s NFL writers are opening their mailbags and answering questions from readers. Let’s take a look at some interesting notes from the AFC…

  • Adam Teicher points to wideouts Reggie Wayne and James Jones as potential targets for the Chiefs. He also adds that offensive lineman Evan Mathis is still available, but notes that coach Andy Reid previously said the team has no interest in the 33-year-old.
  • Mike Wells says Colts fans shouldn’t be upset or concerned where Reggie Wayne lands, even if it’s with the rival Patriots. The writer refers to New England’s interest in the wideout back in 2012.
  • The Jaguars could have waited a year and tried to draft Jameis Winston, but Mike DiRocco believes that would have been too much of a risk. The team believed Blake Bortles could be the future of the franchise, so the writer doesn’t blame the front office’s strategy.
  • Coley Harvey opines that it’d be “hard to justify” the Bengals signing A.J. Green to a Dez Bryant/Demaryius Thomas-type contract. Green has certainly established himself as one of the top wideouts in the league, but Harvey believes the receiver’s injury history may have hurt his value. Ultimately, Harvey thinks both sides will wait to negotiate until after this season, and he’d be shocked if Green received more than $43 million in guaranteed money.
  • Harvey also believes there is zero chance Jermaine Gresham will be returning to the Bengals next season.

Details, Reactions On Bryant/Thomas Deals

July 16th, 2015 at 11:52am CST by Luke Adams

Reports earlier this week suggested neither Dez Bryant nor Demaryius Thomas had better than a 50/50 chance of signing an extension this week, so it came as a bit of a surprise yesterday when both players got deals done with their respective teams. We examined a few specific details of those contracts earlier today, and now we’ll round up a few more notes and reactions related to the pair of extensions. Let’s dive in….

Bryant negotiations:

  • Although Bryant admitted that going through his contract situation this summer was “extremely hard,” he reiterated on Wednesday that he was willing to sit out regular season games if he didn’t get a new deal (link via Dallas Morning News). “I am that guy that, I have to stand by my word, because that’s how I want to raise my babies,” Bryant said. “It was all me. It was honest.”
  • Appearing on 105.3 FM in Dallas, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones answered a few specific questions about the negotiations with Bryant, noting that the “false financial perspective” set by Calvin Johnson‘s and Larry Fitzgerald‘s contracts was problematic during contract discussions. The Dallas Morning News has that quote and several more from Jones.
  • During his own radio appearance in Dallas, executive VP Stephen Jones also discussed the deal in some depth, admitting the Bryant negotiations were among the most difficult the Cowboys have ever had. Once again, the Dallas Morning News has the details.

Thomas negotiations:

  • Broncos general manager John Elway told reporters, including Troy Renck of The Denver Post (Twitter link), that there wasn’t any movement from June 1st until Wednesday morning on Thomas’ deal. At that point, talks between the two sides reignited and led to a five-year, $70MM deal being reached.
  • Elway also explained that keeping Thomas and locking him up long term was the first step in keeping this Broncos team together, tweets James Palmer of NFL Network.
  • According to Mike Klis of 9News, the Broncos had a seven-year, $100MM offer on the table for Thomas, but the Pro Bowl wideout opted for the five-year, $70MM pact instead. While the seven-year deal looks more impressive on paper, and would’ve increased the average annual value of the extension, those final two years essentially would’ve been risk-free options for Denver, so it’s not a surprise that Thomas chose the shorter deal.

Potential impact of Thomas/Bryant deals on other players:

  • Now that Thomas and Bryant have gotten something done, there’s a “general sense” around the Falcons that Atlanta could lock up Julio Jones by the start of training camp, despite a lack of progress so far, according to Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com. The Falcons’ camp is scheduled to get underway two weeks from Friday.
  • After seeing the deals signed by Bryant and Thomas, Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton might be hearing cash registers in his head. The 25-year-old Hilton, who has back-to-back seasons of 80-plus catches and 1,000-plus yards, is entering the final year of his deal, and issued the following tweet on Wednesday: “All this BREAKING NEWS. Does this mean the bar is set?? #THEGHOST”
  • Hilton will have a hard time demanding a contract in the same range as the five-year, $70MM extensions signed by Bryant and Thomas, but those deals help to reset the market for receivers, and should benefit the Colts wideout in other ways, writes Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star.

Other Thomas/Bryant leftovers:

  • While collusion between teams during contract negotiations isn’t permitted, players and agents are allowed to talk, and it was legal collusion between agents Tom Condon and Todd France that helped both Bryant’s and Thomas’ extensions get done, says Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. Condon’s agency, CAA, is on the verge of buying France’s agency, Five Star Athlete Management, and the two agents took advantage of their new relationship.
  • Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap examines how the Bryant and Thomas contracts compare to one another, as well as how the deals match up to those signed by a few top players at other positions.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

2015 Release Candidates: AFC South

July 14th, 2015 at 6:04pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.

Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.

We’ve already looked at the AFC East, NFC East, AFC North, and NFC North, so let’s dive into the AFC South…

Houston Texans:

  • Garrett Graham, TE: After posting a solid a 49/545/5 line during the 2014 campaign (and subsequently signing a three-year, $11.25MM deal), Graham regressed last season, catching just 18 balls for 197 yards and one score, missing the final four weeks of the season after suffering a high ankle sprain. Graham’s numbers can somewhat be forgiven due to the quality of quarterback play in Houston last season, but he wasn’t effective as a blocker, either. He’s due $3MM in base salary in each of the next two seasons, and while the Texans could save a decent amount (about $3.1MM) by releasing him now, he’s set to be the club’s starting tight end. Perhaps if Ryan Griffin or second-year pro C.J. Fiedorowicz — neither of who was overly productive last season — shows something during the preseason, there might be an infinitesimal chance that Graham is cut. But given head coach Bill O’Brien‘s affinity for tight end usage, it’s unlikely he’d cut ties with Graham. Prediction: not released.

Indianapolis Colts:

  • Gosder Cherilus/Lance Louis/Donald Thomas, OL: While three-fifths of the Colts’ offensive line is relatively set — LT Anthony Castonzo, C Khaled Holmes, RG Todd Herremans — the left guard and right tackle positions are in a state of flux. 2014 second-rounder Jack Mewhort is versatile enough to play at both spots, and he’ll likely fill one of those roles; whether Indianapolis slots him in at guard or tackle could determine the roster fate of one or more of Cherilus, Louis, or Thomas. Recovery from injuries could also play a factor here, as Cherilus is coming back from knee surgery (and just had a scope in January), while Thomas has missed the better part of the last two seasons dealing with a torn quadriceps. Overall it’s a difficult scenario — Louis has the worst track record but would save the Colts the least money if released, while Cherilus and Thomas each have a better history of production but would save Indy $4MM each if cut. Unfortunately, it doesn’t sound like Thomas’ recovery is going very well, so for now I’ll guess that he’ll be out. Meanwhile, if Mewhort takes over right tackle, and the club can rely on some combination of Louis, Joe Reitz, and CFL signee Ben Heenan to man left guard, I could see Cherilus being released as well. But given that the Colts would incur $2.9MM in dead money (as opposed to that $4MM in savings), I think he’ll stick for one more season. Prediction: Thomas released.
  • Robert Mathis, LB: Like Thomas, Mathis missed last season after suffering a major injury — in Mathis’ case, a torn Achilles — and also like Thomas, his rehab process isn’t going as well as he’d hoped. The 34-year-old reportedly suffered a setback in February, and two months later he told SiriuxXM Radio that his recovery was lagging. The Colts actually extended Mathis last fall as part of an interesting contractual compromise. Indy wasn’t obligated to compensate Mathis during the 2014 season because he was on the non-football injury list, as a result of his Achilles tear occurring during a private workout, but the club paid him anyway. In exchange, Mathis converted his $3MM roster bonus that was set to be paid in March 2015 into per-game roster bonuses, meaning he’ll only get that money if he’s on the field. The Colts also tacked an extra year (2016) onto his deal, but that year contains no guaranteed money. In short, if the team feels that Mathis isn’t healthy enough to contribute during the upcoming season, they can now release him with far less financial penalty. Whether he will be healthy enough is hard to say until training camp gets underway, but it’s hard to bet on a player in his mid-30s coming off a significant injury who plays a position that relies on explosion. Prediction: released.

Jacksonville Jaguars:

  • Chris Clemons, DE: Signed to a four-year deal just last offseason that reunited him with Jaguars head coach(and former Seahawks DC) Gus Bradley, Clemons disappointed in his first season with the club, grading as the league’s second-worst 4-3 defensive end, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), a far cry from his tenure in Seattle when he ranked as a top-12 each year from 2010-12. Turning 34 years old in October, it doesn’t appear that Clemons has much left in the tank. Had third overall selection Dante Fowler Jr. not torn his ACL earlier this year, I would have thought it nearly 100% certain that Clemons is released. Jacksonville still has a bevy of defensive line talent available, however, so I’d still put the odds at around 85%. Clemons had no guaranteed money included in his contract beyond 2014, so the Jags won’t be strapped with any dead money. Prediction: released.
  • Toby Gerhart, RB: Gerhart didn’t transition well in his shift from Adrian Peterson‘s backup to Jacksonville’s starter; he finished the year with just 101 carries, averaging only 3.2 yards per carry. With the Jaguars having used a second-round pick on running back T.J. Yeldon (who will presumably pair with 2014 pleasant surprise Denard Robinson), and with Gerhart not being due any guarantees for the remainder of his deal, it seemed likely that he’d be cut. But reports have indicated that the Jags are likely to keep Gerhart around, using him in something of a fullback/H-back hybrid role. The SB Nation blog Big Cat Country, in fact, posted an excellent piece earlier this week examining how new Jaguars OC Greg Olson could utilize Gerhart in a manner similar to Marcel Reece (whom Olson coached in Oakland). Prediction: not released.
  • Ziggy Hood, DL: Like Clemons and Gerhart, Hood was another 2014 offseason addition who wasn’t all that productive during his first season in northeast Florida. A former first-round pick of the Steelers, Hood is certainly a capable rotational defensive lineman. But the Jags have been collecting a stable of DLs over the past year or so, and with Jared Odrick, a recovering Sen’Derrick Marks and Roy Miller, Ryan Davis, Andre Branch, and rookie Michael Bennett, I thought there might be a chance Hood is let go. But given that Marks will still be coming back from his torn ACL, Hood is probably safe. Prediction: not released.

Tennessee Titans:

  • Michael Griffin, S: The 30-year-old Griffin’s roller coaster-like production over the past four seasons is very strange: PFF graded him as a top-15 safety in both 2011 and 2013, but as a bottom-five safety in both 2012 and 2014. Griffin is due to count $8.1MM against the cap in 2015, he’s coming off both shoulder and knee surgeries, and he was the subject of trade rumors last fall, so calling him a candidate for release is not a stretch. But the Titans don’t have much safety depth behind Griffin and free agent addition Da’Norris Searcy, so Griffin will likely stick on the 53-man roster. Prediction: not released.
  • Andy Levitre, G: Levitre has never been the same player he was in Buffalo since joining Tennessee on a six-year, $48.6MM contract before the 2013 season, but he hasn’t been bad by any stretch of the imagination. He actually ranked as a top-15 guard in 2013 before falling to No. 45 last season (per PFF), but even that 2014 ranking meant he was simply a middle of the pack lineman. Of course, “serviceable” isn’t what the Titans were looking for when they guaranteed Levitre $13MM, but now that it sounds like he’s completely healthy, it doesn’t make sense for the Titans to give up now. Prediction: not released.
  • Ropati Pitoitua, DL: Despite placing within the Titans’ top 10 cap charges, Pitoitua was demoted to the second team during summer practices in favor of last year’s fourth-round pick, DaQuan Jones. Now 30 years old, Pitoitua isn’t a great pass rusher, but he can hold up against the run. The question becomes whether a reserve run-stuffing defensive end is worth a $3.5MM+ cap hit, especially when the club could save nearly $3MM by releasing him. The answer is probably no, but given that Pitoitua could act as insurance if Jones flops, and the fact that the Titans don’t have any cap space issues, I think he’s safe. Prediction: not released.
  • Charlie Whitehurst, QB: With Marcus Mariota in town (yet still unsigned), and 2014 draft pick Zach Mettenberger on the roster, I can’t see any way that the Titans choose to keep Whitehurst (and his $2.5MM cap figure) on the roster. Unless the club does decide to trade Mettenberger — a scenario that likely would have already played out — the Titans will probably cut Whitehurst, saving $2MM in the process. Prediction: released.

Extra Points: JPP, Luck, Bucs, Cardinals

July 13th, 2015 at 9:29pm CST by Zachary Links

At some point, the Giants and Jason Pierre-Paul are going to have to talk money, Dan Graziano of ESPN.com writes. The Giants want JPP in camp learning the new defense, so Graziano figures that the most likely outcome is that the two sides negotiate to a lower franchise figure and he signs it in exchange for a written promise from the team to pay him the entire amount. Under that scenario, the Giants could theoretically have Pierre-Paul in camp and help administer his rehab and Pierre-Paul would not have to worry about rushing back to the field in order to get paid. Here’s more from around the NFL..

  • Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com gave his thoughts on at how an extension might look for Colts quarterback Andrew Luck. Luck could be looking at a five-year, ~$125MM pact in exchange for tearing up his currently contracted 2016 season (~$16.15MM), but Seifert suggests he could instead push the Colts to give him a $100MM deal with $90MM fully guaranteed. Such a deal wouldn’t just benefit Luck, it would allow the Colts to spend more on the roster around their star quarterback.
  • Buccaneers cornerback C.J. Wilson, who lost two fingers in a fireworks accident, was released from a hospital on Friday, and he is doing well and is “in very good spirits,” sources tell ESPN’s Adam Caplan. Wilson is in the final season of his two-year deal that carries a non-guaranteed base salary of $585K for the 2015 season. Wilson, not to be confused with the defensive tackle who goes by the same name, hadn’t been expected to play a major role for Tampa Bay in 2015, but he did appear in two games for the team at the end of last season, logging some snaps on both defense and special teams. Now, his chances of seeing the field at all this season are up in the air.
  • Cardinals safety Rashad Johnson says that he has long planned to be a coach when his playing career is through, as Darren Urban of AZCardinals.com writes. Somewhat surprisingly, Johnson doesn’t dream of being a head coach, but instead wants to be a defensive coordinator. “It’s something that makes me who I am,” Johnson said. “It makes me that special player that’s vital even if he’s not a Patrick Peterson-type of athlete. Vital because he can help the defense as a whole because he knows the plays. He can help everyone play faster.” Johnson, who is entering the final year of his deal, has been mentioned as an extension candidate this summer.

AFC Rumors: Brady, Herron, Marks, Chargers

July 11th, 2015 at 5:11pm CST by Sam Robinson

Let’s look at some of the news coming out of AFC cities as we remain in the NFL’s mid-summer lull.

  • The optics of Tom Brady‘s Deflategate suspension remaining at four games won’t look good for the league if a player convicted by a judge in a non-jury trial in a domestic violence matter receives the same suspension as one connected to potentially doctoring footballs, writes Shalise Manza Young of the Boston Globe. Young notes Roger Goodell could reduce the Patriots quarterback’s suspension to just one game should the public relations-conscious commissioner see how “ridiculous” it looks to have these two offenses treated equally.
  • Sen’Derrick Marks could wind up on the physically unable to perform list after tearing his ACL in Week 17 of last year, notes Kevin Patra of NFL.com. The Jaguars‘ top interior defensive lineman stopped short of predicting an Adrian Peterson-like return to the field for Week 1 but believes he’ll be “pretty ready” for the Jags’ opener.
  • Eric Weddle should have plenty of motivation in what becomes an audition for what could be his last NFL contract, notes Eric D. Williams of ESPN.com. Williams notes the Chargers should still receive excellent safety play from Weddle despite his dissatisfaction with the organization, while the Pro Bowl talent will also be backed by “one of the better cornerback tandems in the league” in Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett.
  • Dan Herron will enter the season as Frank Gore‘s definitive backup, writes Kevin Bowen of Colts.com, but opines that with Gore in the fold the Colts‘ alternating-possessions approach to backfield time might not apply anymore. They used this plenty last season, with the still-ineffective Trent Richardson being spelled by a spry Ahmad Bradshaw. But with Gore entering his age-32 season and Herron averaging 4.5 yards per tote (albeit in just 78 carries), the second-year runner should see his share of work to keep the five-time Pro Bowler fresh. Gore’s kept his average above four yards per carry in each of his 10 seasons, but that’s partially because the 49ers did a solid job spelling him. Gore hasn’t carried the ball more than 285 times in a season since 2006.
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