Top 3 Offseason Needs: New Orleans Saints

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the New Orleans Saints, who finished with an 11-5 record before suffering a devastating loss to the Vikings in the Divisional Round.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

  1. Cameron Jordan, DE: $14,247,000
  2. Terron Armstead, T: $13,500,000
  3. Larry Warford, G: $9,000,000
  4. Max Unger, C: $8,000,000
  5. Coby Fleener, TE: $8,000,000
  6. Mark Ingram, RB: $6,245,000
  7. Drew Brees, QB: $6,000,000 (dead money)
  8. Nick Fairley, DT: $6,000,000 (dead money)
  9. A.J. Klein, LB: $5,200,000
  10. Thomas Morstead, P: $4,850,000

Other:

  • Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $31,065,354
  • 27th pick in draft
  • Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for G Andrus Peat

Three Needs:

1) Re-sign Drew Brees: The entire Saints’ offseason hinges on re-signing 39-year-old quarterback Drew Brees. Nearly every report has indicated Brees wants to return to New Orleans, and it’s frankly difficult to imagine him leaving for another club. General manager Mickey Loomis & Co. had planned meet with Brees and his representatives at the scouting combine over the next week, and Brees’ unique contract structure means the two sides must agree to a new deal before the 2018 league year begins on March 14.

Brees worked out a one-year extension in September 2016 that locked him up through the 2017 campaign. Technically, the pact runs through the 2020 season, but the typically cap-strapped Saints used three void years in order to spread out Brees’ $30MM signing bonus. Signing bonuses prorate on NFL salary caps, so tacking on “fake” seasons to the end of a contract allow clubs to save cap space in the present while knowing they’ll have to pay the bill down the line.

Because Brees was given a $30MM signing bonus, the Saints are responsible for a $6MM cap charge ($30MM divided by five years) in each season of the deal. Brees’ contract will void on March 14, and if he hasn’t inked a new agreement at that point, the remaining $18MM in signing bonus proration will immediately accelerate onto New Orleans’ 2018 salary cap. What the Saints need to do, then, is extend Brees for a few more years, which would allow them to once again spread out that remaining $18MM.

If the Saints’ history of salary cap management is any indication, they’ll attempt to kick the can down the road again by signing Brees to a new contract that contains more void seasons. A five-year deal that contains a void provision after year two would allow New Orleans to retain Brees for the time being while giving the team even more wherewithal to spread out his signing bonus. Yes, such a plan would simply force the Saints to address Brees’ deal again in say, 2020, but given that New Orleans is squarely in its contention window, Loomis can afford to sort out any contractual problems when the time comes.

For what it’s worth, there’s little question the Saints need to retain Brees despite his advanced age and the surprisingly large number of quarterback alternatives available this offseason. Brees didn’t post his typically gaudy offensive statistics in 2017, but that was largely by design, as he attempted only 536 pass attempts, his lowest in a full 16-game slate since 2005 (his final year with the Chargers).

New Orleans built an offense that doesn’t have to fully rely on Brees, as the club ranked first in rushing DVOA and second in pressure rate allowed. Buoyed by Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, and a strong offensive line, Brees ranked second in passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt, and third in Football Outsiders‘ DVOA, which measures value on a per-play basis.

2) Back to the drawing board opposite Cameron Jordan: The Saints struck gold in 2017 by inking former Cardinals edge rusher Alex Okafor to a one-year, $3MM deal. After years of trying (and failing) to find a defensive end to play alongside standout Cameron Jordan, New Orleans finally landed Okafor, who graded as Pro Football Focus‘ No. 22 edge defender before going down with a torn Achilles in late November. With Okafor in tow, the Saints ranked sixth in adjusted sack rate, their best showing since 2013, and finished 11th in pressure rate.

Okafor was one of the best one-year signings in the NFL a season ago, and the now 27-year-old has indicated that he’d like to return to New Orleans in 2018. While the Saints could explore a new deal with Okafor, they shouldn’t overpay to do so. Okafor didn’t have much of a market last season, and New Orleans doesn’t need to reward him for a (admittedly solid) 10-game sample. If Okafor is willing to re-sign for the $3MM he landed last year, the Saints should be interested. But given that he’s coming off an Achilles injury (which could limit his explosion and first step going forward), Okafor doesn’t need to be a high priority for New Orleans.

The Saints could also look at other internal options before scouring the free agent market in search of edge defenders. Trey Hendrickson was a third-round draft pick last year, and he offered an adequate performance as a situational rusher during his rookie campaign. On 235 pass-rushing snaps, Hendrickson put up 13 quarterback pressures. If New Orleans believes Hendrickson could advance to a full-time role in 2018, the club may not need to find another defensive end. The Saints also have 2017 sixth-rounder Al-Quadin Muhammad on the roster, but the Rutgers product only played 24 defensive snaps last season.Read more

PFR Originals: 2/25/18 – 3/4/18

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Traded NFL Draft Picks For 2018

While many 2018 NFL draft picks that get traded won’t be moved until later in the offseason, or during the draft itself, plenty of selections have already changed hands. This list will continue to be updated throughout the offseason, so be sure to check back after trades have been consummated for an updated look at which picks are on the move for 2018. If you have any corrections, please contact us.

Here are 2018’s traded draft picks:

Updated 4-8-18 (1:45pm CT)

Round 1

Round 2

  • Browns acquired pick No. 35 from Texans in deal for QB Brock Osweiler.
  • Colts acquired pick No. 37 from Jets in deal for No. 3 pick.
  • Patriots acquired pick No. 43 from 49ers in deal for QB Jimmy Garoppolo.
  • Colts acquired pick No. 49 from Jets in deal for No. 3 pick.
  • Bills acquired pick No. 56 from Rams in deal for WR Sammy Watkins.
  • 49ers acquired pick No. 59 from Saints in deal for RB Alvin Kamara.
  • Browns acquired pick No. 64 from Eagles in deal for 2016 No. 2 pick.

Round 3

Round 4

Round 5

Round 6

Round 7

Complete 2018 NFL Draft Order

The full 2018 NFL draft order can be found below, sorted by round. The list of 256 selections includes all traded draft picks and compensatory picks, and will continue to be updated leading up to the draft if additional deals are made. For an explanation of how traded picks were acquired, check out our complete breakdown.

Here’s the complete 2018 NFL draft order:

Updated 4-8-18 (1:46pm CT)

Round One:

  1. Cleveland Browns
  2. New York Giants
  3. New York Jets (from Indianapolis)
  4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston)
  5. Denver Broncos
  6. Indianapolis Colts (from New York Jets)
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  8. Chicago Bears
  9. San Francisco 49ers
  10. Oakland Raiders
  11. Miami Dolphins
  12. Buffalo Bills (from Cincinnati)
  13. Washington Redskins
  14. Green Bay Packers
  15. Arizona Cardinals
  16. Baltimore Ravens
  17. Los Angeles Chargers
  18. Seattle Seahawks
  19. Dallas Cowboys
  20. Detroit Lions
  21. Cincinnati Bengals (from Buffalo)
  22. Buffalo Bills (from Kansas City)
  23. New England Patriots (from Los Angeles Rams)
  24. Carolina Panthers
  25. Tennessee Titans
  26. Atlanta Falcons
  27. New Orleans Saints
  28. Pittsburgh Steelers
  29. Jacksonville Jaguars
  30. Minnesota Vikings
  31. New England Patriots
  32. Philadelphia Eagles

Round Two:

  1. Cleveland Browns
  2. New York Giants
  3. Cleveland Browns (from Houston)
  4. Indianapolis Colts
  5. Indianapolis Colts (from New York Jets)
  6. Tampa Bay Buccaners
  7. Chicago Bears
  8. Denver Broncos
  9. Oakland Raiders
  10. Miami Dolphins
  11. New England Patriots (from San Francisco)
  12. Washington Redskins
  13. Green Bay Packers
  14. Cincinnati Bengals
  15. Arizona Cardinals
  16. Los Angeles Chargers
  17. Indianapolis Colts (from Seattle via New York Jets)
  18. Dallas Cowboys
  19. Detroit Lions
  20. Baltimore Ravens
  21. Buffalo Bills
  22. Kansas City Chiefs
  23. Carolina Panthers
  24. Buffalo Bills (from Los Angeles Rams)
  25. Tennessee Titans
  26. Atlanta Falcons
  27. San Francisco 49ers (from New Orleans)
  28. Pittsburgh Steelers
  29. Jacksonville Jaguars
  30. Minnesota Vikings
  31. New England Patriots
  32. Cleveland Browns (from Philadelphia)

Read more

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Oakland Raiders

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Oakland Raiders, who underwhelmed with a 6-10 record after receiving significant offseason hype because of their 2016 playoff berth. The team opted to fire Jack Del Rio months after giving him an extension and bring back Jon Gruden, who has not coached since the 2008 season. After being viewed to be in better shape in 2017, the franchise is in a less cozy place as far as needs go as well entering Gruden 2.0’s first offseason.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

  1. Derek Carr, QB: $25,000,000
  2. Khalil Mack, LB: $13,846,000
  3. Gabe Jackson, G: $10,500,000
  4. Kelechi Osemele, G: $10,500,000
  5. Sean Smith, CB: $8,500,000
  6. Rodney Hudson, C: $8,350,000
  7. Bruce Irvin, LB: $8,250,000
  8. Donald Penn, T: $8,131,250
  9. Michael Crabtree, WR: $7,687,500
  10. Amari Cooper, WR: $7,210,993

Other:

  • Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $15,775,913
  • Ninth/tenth pick in draft
  • Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for WR Amari Cooper

Three Needs:

1) Restock the cornerback spots: The player most associated with Raiders cornerbacks over the past three years is now gone. Gruden and Reggie McKenzie showed David Amerson the door, and he’s now with the rival Chiefs. Sean Smith has not been what the franchise envisioned upon signing him in 2016, and the legal entanglement he’s gotten into paves a path for the soon-to-be 31-year-old corner out of Oakland. Releasing Smith comes free of charge thanks to McKenzie’s usual method of frontloading deals; the Raiders will see $8.5MM in cap relief with a Smith cut. The question then evolves to how to repair this area.

With slot man T.J. Carrie a free agent, the Raiders will be incredibly thin here if/when they cut Smith. Only 2017 first-rounder Gareon Conley qualifies as a building block, and he missed all but two games of his rookie season with a troublesome shin injury. Nevertheless, Conley will be expected to commandeer one of Oakland’s starting jobs this coming season.

Despite being a UFA, Carrie — a Bay Area native — already met with Gruden and members of the new coaching staff. He’s expressed a desire to stay. Although Carrie had his best season in 2017 after winning the slot job full-time following D.J. Hayden‘s exit, the 27-year-old defender will be in a market with other (more proven) slot stoppers Patrick Robinson, Aaron Colvin and Nickell Robey-Coleman. A midlevel deal might be enough to keep Carrie in Oakland, thus locking down another of the team’s de facto starting spots.

With the Raiders no longer having a high-end cornerback salary on their books, in the event they cut Smith, they could target one of the upper-echelon free agents. And Tony Pauline of DraftAnalyst.com reports they don’t intend to go exclusively after bargain buys, with Trumaine Johnson being their top UFA target.

With needs across their defense, steering clear of the Johnson/Malcolm Butler/Kyle Fuller tier may be the wiser choice. The team visited with Vontae Davis, but he opted for a Bills agreement. Other members of this upper-middle class of veterans include Prince Amukamara, Bashaud Breeland, Rashaan Melvin and E.J. Gaines.

The Raiders’ budget will be tighter because they will not be making rumored cuts. Both Bruce Irvin ($8.25MM in potential savings, no dead money) and Michael Crabtree ($7.27MM would-be savings, no dead money) will not be released. Each’s upper-middle-class salary will remain on the Raiders’ books. While these cuts would have created key needs as well, the veteran duo remaining on the roster will limit the team to some degree. And a long-rumored Khalil Mack extension coming to fruition could shrink the the signing bonus-averse franchise’s spending allotment further.

That said, Johnson offers reliability the Raiders haven’t had in years. Amerson had a strong 2015 season en route to his extension but was inconsistent a year later and experienced extensive injury trouble last season. Smith did not play as well as he did in Kansas City and has off-field troubles to attend to.

Johnson turned 28 in January and has been a solid corner for years, enough so that the Rams felt the need to tag him twice. And Los Angeles’ trade for Marcus Peters ensures Johnson will hit the market. And he will not come cheap.

Former teammate Janoris Jenkins signed for $12.5MM per year in 2016 — a $155MM cap universe — so it would be hard to see Johnson signing for less when the cap will approach or exceed $180MM. And if McKenzie would continue his usual contract policy to ensure protection in deals’ later years, a Johnson pact would eat into Oakland’s funds considerably. And the 6-foot-2 corner with a history of press-man ability will have an extensive market.

The more prudent method would be spreading money around their defense, which indeed needs help at all levels after the Raiders inexplicably ignored their biggest needs in free agency last year. They opted to spend money to augment a top-10 offense, which interestingly became much worse, and the defensive problems remained.

Despite the resources poured into their cornerback position in recent years, the Raiders have not posed much trouble to opposing quarterbacks. The two Amerson/Smith years produced pass-defense rankings of 24th and 26th, and the Raiders also finished 26th in air deterrence in 2015.

The Raiders picked two cornerbacks in the first round this decade in Hayden and Conley but did not supplement them with other high picks. The team could turn back to the draft again, now that finances are tighter than they have been in many years.

Read more

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Jacksonville Jaguars

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Jacksonville Jaguars, who finished with a 10-6 record before advancing to the AFC Championship Game for the first time in more than 20 years.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

  1. Calais Campbell, DL: $17,500,000
  2. Malik Jackson, DT: $15,500,000
  3. A.J. Bouye, CB: $15,500,000
  4. Telvin Smith, LB: $11,810,235
  5. Marcell Dareus, DT: $10,175,000
  6. Blake Bortles, QB: $10,000,000
  7. Brandon Linder, C: $9,406,250
  8. Dante Fowler Jr.: $7,474,167
  9. Tashaun Gipson, S: $7,050,000
  10. Allen Hurns, WR: $7,000,000

Other:

  • Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $29,848,410
  • 29th pick in draft
  • Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for DE Dante Fowler Jr.

Three Needs:

1) Add competition for Blake Bortles: The Jaguars will run it back in 2018 — instead of exploring a quarterback upgrade via the free agent market, where they could have gone after Kirk Cousins or Case Keenum, the Jags will stick with Blake Bortles after agreeing to a new three-year, $54MM deal that contains $26.5MM in guarantees. Bortles was already under contract for more than $19MM in 2018 thanks to Jacksonville exercising his fifth-year option. That option is guaranteed for injury only, but given that Bortles is recovering from wrist surgery and likely wouldn’t have been able to pass a physical, the $19MM+ figure could be considered effectively fully guaranteed.Blake Bortles (Vertical)

Under the terms of Bortles’ new contract, his cap charge will be reduced to just $10MM, giving the Jaguars about $9MM in additional cap space. The pact will add a partially guaranteed base salary in 2019 ($6.5MM of $16MM is fully guaranteed), which will make it difficult for Jacksonville to part ways with Bortles: a $16.5MM dead money charge would accelerate onto the club’s salary cap if it releases Bortles next offseason. That number might not be as scary given that Bortles’ contract now contains offset language (meaning the Jaguars will be off the hook for whatever salary Bortles theoretically earns with a new team), but there’s no doubt Jacksonville has committed to keeping some form of Bortles — either the flesh-and-blood player, or simply the remnants of his salary — on its 2019 books.

But the move to extend Bortles wasn’t about the 2019 campaign — no, it was about the upcoming season, when the Jaguars clearly feel they can once again compete for the AFC championship and a Super Bowl title. Once it became clear Bortles and his $19MM salary would stick due to injury, Jacksonville didn’t have a ton of other options. So decision makers Tom Coughlin and Dave Caldwell opted to double down on 2018, create cap space to solidify other parts of the Jaguars roster, keep Bortles in place as the team’s starting quarterback, and worry about 2019 when the time comes.

However, Bortles’ new contract shouldn’t preclude the Jaguars from adding long-term competition under center, and while that will likely need to occur in the draft, there is one free agent signal-caller who could make sense for Jacksonville. Teddy Bridgewater will officially hit the free agent market after five seasons with the Vikings, and while all the tea leaves point to him returning to Minnesota, the former first-round pick could be interested in moving on, especially if the Vikes bring in Kirk Cousins.Teddy Bridgewater (Vertical)

Bridgewater, of course, hasn’t played a full season since 2015 while recovering from a gruesome knee injury, but he’s still only 25 years old. Perhaps he’ll want to land with a team that will allow a clearer shot at a starting job, but I question whether NFL clubs will trust Bridgewater’s health. Jacksonville, though, could promise Bridgewater the chance to start later in the 2018 season if Bortles fails, and might be able to ink him to a contract that would keep him in town through 2019 or 2020.

In the draft, the Jaguars aren’t likely to get a shot at Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, or Josh Allen, but Louisville’s Lamar Jackson could be available at pick No. 29. Jackson, the 2016 Heisman winner, would be fascinating entrant as Bortles’ backup in 2018 and a future starter in 2019 and beyond. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com calls Jackson a “maestro of improv who is Second City worthy,” and Jackson would be deadly utilizing run-pass options in Jacksonville’s offense. He needs work — Zierlein says Jackson needs to improve his accuracy on the run and his pocket awareness — but the former Cardinal seems like a high-risk, high-reward option that would mesh with the rest of the Jaguars’ roster.

2) Bolster the offensive line: Jacksonville invested in its offensive line in 2017, using the 34th overall selection on Alabama tackle Cam Robinson. Although he started 15 games on the blindside during his rookie campaign, Robinson graded as a bottom-five tackle in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus, seemingly confirming pre-draft concerns that he was a right tackle or guard. Ideally, the Jaguars would add new left tackle, shift Robinson to the right side, and release incumbent right tackle Jermey Parnell, but the utter lack of left tackles in both free agency and the draft makes that strategy untenable.

Instead, the Jags will likely give Robinson another shot on the blindside and seek upgrades on the interior. Center Brandon Linder is an excellent pivot and under contract through 2022, so he’s not going anywhere, but Jacksonville should pursue improvement at guard. Patrick Omameh and A.J. Cann finished 36th and 37th, respectively, among 77 PFF qualifiers, so the Jags can certainly aim for more production. Additionally, neither Omameh or Cann is signed to a long-term deal: Omameh, in fact, is scheduled to hit free agency next month, while Cann has one year left on his rookie contract.Read more

PFR Originals: 2/18/18 – 2/25/18

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Franchise Tag Candidate: Allen Robinson

Allen Robinson is one of the top receivers in this year’s class of free agent wideouts, and while Robinson and the Jaguars have not engaged in contract talks, Jacksonville is reportedly open to hitting him with the franchise tag to keep him around for 2018.

Allen Robinson (Vertical)

Robinson presents an interesting case. He was fantastic in 2015, posting 80 catches for 1,400 yards and a whopping 14 touchdowns en route to his first Pro Bowl nod. However, much of that production came when the Jags were trailing big and were forced to throw the football, often against soft coverages. He regressed in 2016, as he put up just 883 yards and six scores, and his 2017 campaign was wiped out by a torn ACL.

So what you have is an intriguing player in the prime of his career with tantalizing physical tools who is two years removed from his best season and who is coming off a major injury. He also struggled against press coverage in 2016, which certainly doesn’t help.

Nonetheless, he is the most gifted receiver on the Jags’ roster, and there would be at least a few teams willing to gamble on his upside if he hits the open market. Jacksonville knows that, and it also knows that it needs to surround Blake Bortles — who just signed an extension keeping him with the Jags through 2020 — with as much talent as possible. That explains why the Jags would be willing to pony up the $16MM franchise tender for a player with Robinson’s promising but questionable track record.

Fellow Jags wideout Marqise Lee is also set to hit free agency, and while he has been a solid contributor over the last several years, he is not nearly as talented as Robinson, and he, too, struggles against press coverage. So if the Jags are to let either player walk, it would likely be Lee. The other wideouts on the roster include the solid but unspectacular Allen Hurns, the unproven Dede Westbrook, and 2017 UDFA Keelan Cole.

There are plenty of intriguing wideouts in this year’s draft, but most of them are Day 2 types and may not be ready to contribute right away, and there are no other free agents that are not likely to be tagged who can match Robinson’s upside. The guess here is that Robinson plays out the 2018 season under the tag and that Jacksonville picks up a wideout in the second or third round to groom behind him.

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Tennessee Titans

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Tennessee Titans, who advanced to the Divisional Round but still replaced head coach Mike Mularkey with former Texans defensive coordinator Mike Vrabel.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

  1. Jurrell Casey, DT: $14,920,000
  2. Logan Ryan, CB: $11,166,666
  3. Taylor Lewan, T: $9,341,000
  4. Brian Orakpo, LB: $9,000,000
  5. Derrick Morgan, LB: $8,500,000
  6. Marcus Mariota, QB: $7,704,446
  7. Delanie Walker, TE: $7,033,334
  8. Johnathan Cyprien, S: $6,750,000
  9. DeMarco Murray, RB: $6,500,000
  10. Rishard Matthews, WR: $5,833,334

Other:

  • Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $49,488268
  • 25th pick in draft
  • Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for QB Marcus Mariota

Three Needs:

1) Find a young edge rusher: Three edge rushers played more than 50% of the Titans’ defensive snaps in 2017: Brian Orakpo, who will be 32 years old when the 2018 campaign gets underway; Derrick Morgan, who turned 29 last month; and 32-year-old Erik Walden, who is an unrestricted free agent. Tennessee finished in the middle of the pack in both adjusted sack rate (12th) and total sacks (18th), but the team needs to get younger at outside linebacker.Kevin Dodd (vertical)

To be clear, the Titans do have some youthful pass rushers on their roster, but none that have shown anything at the NFL level. Kevin Dodd, selected near the top of the second round in the 2016 draft, missed time with a foot injury during his rookie season and subsequently failed to make an impact in 2017. In total, he’s played only 279 defensive snaps during his first two years in the league. A pair of former seventh-rounders — Aaron Wallace and Josh Carraway — also haven’t produced in their brief NFL tenures.

Tennessee has plenty of 2018 salary space (seventh-most in the league, at present), but general manager Jon Robinson isn’t likely to find what he’s looking for on the open market. The Cowboys intend to use the franchise tag on Demarcus Lawrence, while the next-best edge option, Lions defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, will turn 29 years old in May, meaning he’s probably not a fit. While there are several intriguing pass rushers scheduled to become free agents, they’re likely not the type of premier edge players that will immediately affect opposing offenses.

The most fascinating free agent that could be of interest to the Titans is actually on the restricted free agent market. Shaquil Barrett played two-thirds of the Broncos’ defensive snaps a season ago, and while he posted only four sacks, the 25-year-old managed 30.5 pressures. Denver will likely place a second-rounder tender on Barrett, but I wonder if they’ll be able to match a creative offer from Tennessee. Not only does Denver boast far less cap space than the Titans, but general manager John Elway & Co. will likely spend the early days of the free agent period trying to woo Kirk Cousins or another free agent quarterback into joining his club.

The Broncos have botched the restricted free agent process in the very recent past: in 2016, Denver assigned running back C.J. Anderson the original round tender when a second-round offer would have cost just $900K more. The Broncos ultimately matched a Dolphins offer sheet, but Elway completely misread Anderson’s market from the outset, and ended up paying a financial price.Shaquil Barrett (vertical)

If the Titans craft an offer to Barrett that includes a hefty base salary or roster bonus designed to eat up 2018 cap space, and officially hand that offer to Barrett on the first day of free agency, how will the Broncos react? At a time when they’ll be searching for a signal-caller, possibly fielding trade offers for wideouts Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders, and attempting to keep another RFA (center Matt Paradis), the Broncos may be blindsided yet again.

If a Barrett acquisition proves unrealistic, the Titans will still have the option of perusing the unrestricted free agent market. I’ve previously mentioned Aaron Lynch (49ers) and Jeremiah Attaochu (Chargers) as potential additions for clubs in need of upside at the edge position, and the Titans could show interest. Lynch, notably, ranked fifth in the NFL with 34 pressures as recently as 2015, and if he can keep his weight down, he’d be a viable reserve option for Tennessee. With an eye toward youth, the Titans may also consider Cardinals outside linebacker Kareem Martin, who offers 56 games worth of experience and is only 26 years old. Chris Smith (26) flashed in the 2017 preseason with the Bengals and is now freely available. Matching any of these younger defenders with veteran defensive coordinator Dean Pees could result in success.

The draft will offer yet another avenue for the Titans to acquire a pass rusher, but a top heavy class of defensive ends/linebackers means Tennessee might not have a shot at a blue-chip prospect at the end of the first round. Josh Norris of Rotoworld sent Sam Hubbard to the Titans in his most recent mock draft, but there are legitimate concerns about the Ohio State product’s athleticism. Perhaps Tennessee gets lucky and sees Marcus Davenport (UTSA) or Harold Landry (Boston College) slip, but if not, the club will have to be comfortable selecting a player with off-field concerns such as LSU’s Arden Key, or wait until Day 2 and pick up someone like Kansas’ Dorance Armstrong, whom Matt Miller of Bleacher Report calls the draft’s biggest sleeper on the edge.

2) Bring in a complement to Derrick Henry: The Titans are fully expected to release veteran running back DeMarco Murray this offseason in a move that will save the club $6.5MM in both cash and cap space, and while the club and new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur will turn over the rushing attack to second-year back Derrick Henry, Tennessee will need to find a pass-catching back to pair with its bruiser.

LaFleur was the Rams’ offensive coordinator in 2017, and Los Angeles attempted to bring in a back — Lance Dunbar — to spell Todd Gurley on the cheap. Gurley proved he didn’t really require breathers on the way to being named Offensive Player of the Year, and Dunbar was never able to stay healthy, but the Rams at least had the idea in mind. Henry has shown the ability to become an every-down back, a runner who become the foundation of an offense, but I’d expect Tennessee to pursue at least one other RB to play alongside him.Read more

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Atlanta Falcons

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Atlanta Falcons, who finished with a 10-6 record before being bounced in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

  1. Matt Ryan, QB: $21,650,000
  2. Julio Jones, WR: $12,900,000
  3. Desmond Trufant, CB: $12,900,000
  4. Jake Matthews, T: $12,496,000
  5. Alex Mack, C: $11,050,000
  6. Robert Alford, CB: $9,600,000
  7. Andy Levitre, G: $8,375,000
  8. Mohamed Sanu, WR: $7,400,000
  9. Ryan Schraeder, T: $6,500,000
  10. Derrick Shelby, DE: $5,750,000

Other:

  • Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $12,035,622
  • 26th pick in draft
  • Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for DE Vic Beasley

Three Needs:

1) Bring in at least one starting guard: The problem with boasting a solid core on both sides of the ball is that cap space gets eaten up quickly. The Falcons project to only have ~$12MM in available salary cap room this offseason, and even if the club makes a few predictable cuts, it’s difficult to see their funds rising much above $20MM. But with the small amount of cap space that Atlanta does possess, it should target a clear upgrade on the interior of its offensive line.Andy Levitre (Vertical)

The Falcons could potentially need two new guards to play alongside All-Pro center Alex Mack, depending on what they do with incumbent left guard Andy Levitre. Acquired from the Titans prior to the 2015 season, Levitre has been a solid starter in Atlanta, but he’s coming off a relatively down campaign that ended with a trip to injured reserve. The Falcons can create $7MM in cap savings by releasing Levitre this offseason, but they could also approach the 31-year-old about a contract restructure that reduces his cap charge and keeps him on the roster.

At right guard, 2016 sixth-round pick Wes Schweitzer played nearly offensive snap for the Falcons, but graded as just the No. 54 guard among 77 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus, which assigned Schweitzer poor marks in both the run and pass game. The majority of writers at The Falcoholic — SB Nation’s excellent Falcons blog — don’t believe Schweitzer will return as a starting guard in 2018, but Atlanta does have other possible solutions on its roster. 2017 fourth-rounder Sean Harlow could be in for an increased role, as could Ty Sambrailo, whom the Falcons acquired from the Broncos last September.

While Atlanta would surely love to poach Andrew Norwell from the division rival Panthers, the club won’t be able to afford a guard that is expected to reset the positional market. However, given that the Falcons are certainly in win-now mode, the perfect guard fit may have just become available: Josh Sitton will now become a free agent when the market opens on March 14 after the Bears declined his $8MM option for 2018. Sitton will be 32 years old when next season gets underway, but that shouldn’t scare Atlanta, which is squarely in its contention window and won’t be adverse to inking a veteran player to a multi-year deal. A two-year, backloaded pact that allows Sitton to collect that $8MM he won’t be earning from Chicago could make sense for both sides.Senio Kelemete (Vertical)

If Sitton lands elsewhere, the Falcons should still have their pick of veteran guards, and the sheer volume of available experienced players at the position could potentially reduce prices overall. The Saints’ Senio Kelemete has proven himself all over the offensive line, and would offer Atlanta positional versatility at positions beyond guard. Zach Fulton (Chiefs) is only 26 years old and offers 46 starts worth of experience. Alex Boone, Spencer Long, Matt Slauson, Brandon Fusco, Jahri Evans, Josh Kline…the Falcons’ primary weakness has a ton of free agent panaceas, so the club shouldn’t struggle to find a resolution.

A draft selection is also on the table for the Falcons, but keep in mind that general manager Thomas Dimitroff has only selected one interior offensive linemen — Peter Konz in 2012 — prior to the third round. Atlanta either doesn’t value the guard position very highly, or believes it can find competent options later in the draft. Perhaps the Falcons take a shot on Texas’ Connor Williams (who many teams are viewing as a guard) if he slips to the bottom of the first round, but they’ll probably look to find a mid-round gem instead. Wyatt Teller (Virginia Tech), Sean Welsh (Iowa), and Skyler Phillips (Idaho State) are among the collegiate players who could be available at the beginning of Day 3, per Dane Brugler and Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com.

2) Reorganize the defensive line: Only eight 4-3 defensive tackles saw at least 70% playtime in 2017, and the Falcons boasted two of them in Grady Jarrett and Dontari Poe. Jarrett is one of the better interior defenders in the NFL and is now eligible for an extension, but Poe is scheduled to hit free agency in March. While Atlanta could pursue an extension with Poe in the coming weeks, it might be worthwhile to allow the 27-year-old to reach the open market and assess his value before re-opening talks.Dontari Poe (Vertical)

Poe was one of the top defensive tackles available in 2017, but even after garnering interest from multiple clubs around the league, he was forced to settle for a one-year, $8MM deal. Now that he’s now a year older and has nearly 800 more snaps worth of wear, will teams now be willing to commit to Poe for the long term? Poe will likely be targeting something in the Johnathan Hankins range (three years, $27MM, with $10MM in guarantees), but it’s possible he’s not able to reach that payday. The Falcons should hold off on re-signing Poe in the hopes that his price comes down as a result of a weak market.

If Poe is not retained, Atlanta will likely use an early round draft pick on a new defensive tackle. Josh Norris of Rotoworld and Albert Breer of TheMMQB.com had the same idea in their most recent mock drafts, as both sent Florida’s Taven Bryan to the Falcons at pick No. 26. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com provides the best prospect profiles around, and he says the 6″4, 290-pound Bryan “flashes disruptive potential that is waiting to be fully cultivated” but notes the ex-Gator’s “below-average power and contact balance.” The 2018 draft class offers a good number of interior options, so perhaps Vita Vea (Stanford), Da’Ron Payne (Alabama), Harrison Phillips (Stanford), or Maurice Hurst (Michigan) could fall to the end of the first round.Read more

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