PFR Originals: 10/26/14 – 11/2/14
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Many names were bandied about as trade candidates before Tuesday’s deadline, but there were only two deals: Mark Barron to the Rams, and Jonathan Casillas to the Patriots. Luke Adams looked at the 2015 outlook for the some of those rumored trade candidates, detailing both their contract status and role for next year.
- Luke also examined several impact players who will soon return to contending teams, from injured Lions rookie linebacker Kyle Van Noy, to suspended Browns receiver Josh Gordon.
- In the latest entries in our Extension Candidate series, I profiled Saints running back Mark Ingram (link), while Luke looked at Broncos linebacker Von Miller (link).
- Before Tuesday’s trade deadline, Rory Parks asked which player was most likely to be dealt. Buccaneers receiver Vincent Jackson, who ultimately stayed put, was the No. 1 response at about 27%.
- Cam Newton isn’t open to Colin Kaepernick-esque, pay-as-you-go type extension, so Luke wondered what the Panther quarterback’s next contract will look like. Despite Newton’s protestations, the majority of you believe that he will ultimately accept a deal in the mold of Kaepernick’s.
- The Seahawks and the 49ers met in last year’s NFC Championship, but this season has been a struggle for both clubs. Luke asked if either team will make the playoffs this year, and 41% of respondents believe that while Seattle will head to the postseason, San Francisco will stay home.
- Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
- Check out our new Trade Rumors app, available for both iOS and Android.
Extension Candidate: Von Miller
Although they came into the season looking up at the defending-champion Seahawks, having been steamrolled by Russell Wilson and company back in February’s Super Bowl, the Broncos have since established themselves as 2014’s best team through eight weeks. At 6-1, Denver’s only loss came against those aforementioned Seahawks, and that was an overtime contest that could’ve gone either way. With solid victories against the Colts, Chiefs, Cardinals, 49ers, and Chargers also on their 2014 resumé, the Broncos head into the second half in pole position for the AFC’s top seed.
Everything is firing on all cylinders now for the Broncos, but at season’s end, the team will have several tough decisions to make. Impact players like wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker, tight end Julius Thomas, and cornerback Chris Harris face potential unrestricted free agency, and with about $108MM in salaries already on the books for 2015, the team may not have the flexibility to retain all its key players.
While those players whose deals expire at the end of the 2014 season will likely be Denver’s top priorities, the team also figures to address another important contract situation this offseason, with standout linebacker Von Miller eligible for an extension. Denver picked up its fifth-year option on Miller this past spring, meaning he’s under contract for a $9.754MM salary in 2015. However, it may be in both sides’ best interests to work out a longer-term agreement, one that locks up Miller for a few additional years and perhaps lowers his cap hit for ’15.
Two years ago, Miller was one of the league’s best defensive players in just his second NFL season, piling up 18.5 sacks and forcing six fumbles for the Broncos, earning himself a Pro Bowl spot and a First-Team All-Pro nod. 2013 was a struggle for Miller though, beginning with a six-game suspension for attempting to cheat a drug test and ending with a torn ACL that ended his year early. In between, the former second overall pick also recorded just five sacks in nine games and dealt with off-field legal issues.
As such, 2014 was an important year for Miller as the team assessed which soon-to-be free agents would be part of the long-term plans in Denver, and which were more expendable. So far, the 25-year-old’s play hasn’t left any doubt — the Broncos should do everything they can to lock him up. Through seven games, only Justin Houston of the divisional-rival Chiefs has more sacks (10) than Miller’s nine.
Of course, even in 2013, an apparent down year, advanced metrics suggested that Miller was far and away the best 4-3 outside linebacker in the league. Since he entered the NFL in 2011, Miller has ranked atop the list of qualified players at the position, and it hasn’t been close, according to Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required). Miller’s grades of +48.2, +82.6, +42.8, and +26.4 have given him a double-digit margin over the runner-up in each of his four seasons, and have provided an indication of just how good he is against the run as well as the pass — his grade as a run defender has placed first among 4-3 OLBs in each of his four seasons.
There’s no question then that any team would love to have Miller on the field, and if he were a model citizen off the field, it would probably be just a matter of time until he signed one of the most lucrative contract extensions in all of football. But those off-field problems that have nagged Miller throughout his career figure to come up in contract negotiations, even if accounts out of Denver this season suggest that the Texas A&M product is developing into one of the Broncos’ leaders on defense. With the NFL facing increased public scrutiny in recent months, the league’s policies and penalties for off-field transgressions could become more punitive, and the risk of future suspensions for Miller might make the Broncos shy away from making a massive investment.
Still, it’s hard to downplay Miller’s on-field contributions. With the exception of J.J. Watt and perhaps a couple other players, no defender in the league has the sort of impact at his position that Miller does. Offseason additions like Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward, and DeMarcus Ware have played a part in the Broncos’ improved defense this season, but Miller is the unit’s most valuable piece, and I’d be shocked if the club ever let him reach the open market, even if there are lingering concerns about his off-field conduct.
In order to re-sign players like the Thomases and Harris in the offseason, the Broncos may look to reduce Miller’s $9.754MM cap hit for 2015 by signing him to an extension that pushes some of that money back to future seasons. If the two sides do try to work something out this winter, recent contracts signed by pass rushers like Tamba Hali and Trent Cole could serve as a baseline for Miller’s new deal. Given his astronomical numbers, I’d expect a deal for Miller to exceed the $11.5-12MM annual salaries secured by those players and perhaps land in the neighborhood of contracts signed by Charles Johnson, Robert Quinn, or even Mario Williams.
Those three deals range from four to six years, at a rate of $12.5-16MM per season, with between $15-32MM in guaranteed money. Based on Miller’s history and the Broncos’ typical method for structuring contracts, I could picture the two sides agreeing to a deal for something in the neighborhood of five years and $70-75MM, with a fairly modest guarantee — perhaps $15MM or so. An offer like that would give Miller the opportunity to earn significant annual salaries while giving the team some insurance in case the veteran’s off-field issues resurface.
General manager John Elway and company aren’t likely to address Miller’s contract, or any others, until after the season, but these negotiations shouldn’t be overlooked, even as the team attempts to re-sign Peyton Manning‘s top receivers (Thomas and Thomas) and the defense’s best cornerback (Harris). Playing out the 2015 season with Miller on a one-year deal is a possibility, particularly if the team wants to see him continue to mature, but this winter could be the best time to hammer out a long-term contract from a financial perspective.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Extension Candidate: Mark Ingram
It’s become almost cliché to note that the running back position has been severely devalued in today’s NFL, but glance at most any financial or statistical metric and you’ll quickly reach that conclusion. Consider the 2014 free agent running back class, which, while admittedly lackluster and not comparable to the potentially fruitful 2015 RB crop, featured veterans such as Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden, useful role players like Donald Brown and Knowshon Moreno, and backs who seemingly just needed more opportunity in
Ben Tate and Rashad Jennings. Despite the league’s salary cap being raised by more than nine percent, running back contracts bottomed out, with Johnson receiving the highest annual average value at $4MM, and Brown, at $10MM, garnering the largest total deal.
The league’s offensive schemes have changed, as teams are attempting passes at a far greater clip than they are rushing the ball. Since the turn of the century, league-wide pass attempts have risen steadily, while rushing attempts have decreased at nearly the same rate. This season, clubs are running the ball on just 42% of offensive plays. Additionally, the “featured back” is becoming a concept of yesteryear, meaning that no one runner is able to solely elevate his value through repeated opportunities. In each season since 2010, for example, we’ve seen an average of just four running backs per season receive 300 or more carries. In the 20 seasons prior, an average of 7.25 RBs per season attempted 300+ rushes, a 55% increase. Running back has become a position attended to by a committee, so the league as a whole doesn’t positively assess many singular backs.
The draft is another market that has decided running backs are not a worthwhile investment. No RBs were selected in the first round of either the 2013 or the 2014 draft. Four were chosen in the two years prior, but Trent Richardson, chosen third overall in 2012, was the anomaly who was not a end-of-the-round selection. Doug Martin, selected in the same draft as Richardson, went to the Buccaneers at pick No. 31. In 2011, the Giants took David Wilson thirty-second overall, while the player who has been the most successful to this point was chosen four spots earlier. With the No. 28 pick in the ’11 draft, the Saints selected Mark Ingram out of Alabama.
Ingram, of course, had won the Heisman Trophy as the NCAA’s best football player during his sophomore season in 2009. Drafted to be teamed with a New Orleans running back contingent that already consisted of Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, and Chris Ivory, Ingram largely disappointed over his first three seasons in the NFL. Despite leading the Saints’ backfield in carries during that span, Ingram never topped 650 yards rushing or five touchdowns, and wasn’t a factor in the passing game. In fact, Ingram’s approximate value during his first three years in the NFL ranks fourth-lowest among running backs selected in the first round since 2000 during the same stretch of their careers.
New Orleans management was obviously unimpressed, as well, as they declined Ingram’s fifth-year option, meaning that he will be an unrestricted free agent after this season. It’s a move that general manger Mickey Loomis & Co. have probably come to regret, as Ingram is enjoying his finest season as an NFL player. After Sproles was traded during the offseason, Thomas and fellow runner Khiry Robinson dealt with injuries, leaving Ingram as the lead back. Despite missing two games with a hand ailment, Ingram has rushed 88 times for 431 yards, and scored six times. He’s also caught eight balls in just five games; he averaged eight receptions per season during the first three years of his career. Advanced metrics are also a fan of Ingram’s work. Despite his low snap totals, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) grades Ingram as the 11th-best running back in the league among 59 qualifiers. Football Outsiders sets the line of demarcation for its statistics at 64 rushing attempts, which Ingram doesn’t meet. But among RBs with 63 or fewer carries, Ingram is first in DYAR and third in DVOA.
Despite his current level of production, Ingram might not be with the Saints for long. Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported yesterday that the 24-year-old is expected to hit free agency at the end of the season. If New Orleans doesn’t want to lock Ingram up with a long-term deal just yet, they do have the option of retaining him via the franchise tag. However, given that the club declined to spend the $5.2MM it would have taken to keep Ingram via the fifth-year option, it’s doubtful that it would now guarantee him north of $10MM by using the franchise tender. Additionally, the Saints probably don’t even have the cap space to use a franchise tag. Over the Cap’s data shows New Orleans with negative cap room for 2015, at more than $18MM in the red. The team will obviously have to do some financial maneuvering and/or hope that the salary cap rises dramatically, but it’s still unlikely they’d use any cap relief on a franchise tag for Ingram.
Regardless of whether Ingram stays in New Orleans or leaves via free agency, I don’t think his contract numbers will be that different. Specifically, I think that his final dollar amount received will be rather modest, far less than most might think. For one, he’s part of a relatively loaded free agent class of running backs — DeMarco Murray, Shane Vereen, Frank Gore, Ryan Mathews, Stevan Ridley, and C.J. Spiller are playing on expiring contracts. And though many of those players have their warts (age, injury concerns), it’s still a strong crop, meaning that RB-needy teams will have options to choose from.
If he stays healthy for the rest of his historic season, Murray will earn the most among the backs listed, and Ingram is a strong contender to earn the second-most favorable contract. But it’s doubtful that any FA back receives the type of deals that LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, or Marshawn Lynch got. Those four backs are making between $7.3MM and $9MM per season, and were guaranteed between $13.8MM and $20.77MM. Murray could conceivably sneak into the back of that salary range (though I personally doubt it), but Ingram is probably a pay level, or two below.
Like quarterback contracts before Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, and Alex Smith were extended, running back deals don’t have much of a middle-tier. The upper-level group earns $7MM+ on what are mostly extensions, and the lower tier, made up mostly of free agents, make $4MM or less in AAV. The only contracts in between are rookie deals paying the likes of Spiller, Mathews, and Richardson. Gore makes about $6.4MM per year, which should set the ceiling for Ingram. Gore was a much more proven player when he signed his deal than Ingram is now, and was constantly putting up 1,000+ yard seasons. Ingram’s floor will probably be that of the 2014 FA running class, or about $4MM.
Ingram, like Kaepernick et al., could potentially break new ground and establish a fresh mid-tier level of contracts. An average annual value in the neighborhood of $5.5MM would do just that, and would be fair value for Ingram. I could see him receiving something like $9-10MM in guarantees over the course of a four-year deal. It’s a contract that the Saints likely won’t be able to afford, and given their affinity for crowded backfields, probably wouldn’t even try to match. But another team in need of a running back might be able to lock up Ingram at a relatively reasonable rate, and hope that 2014 Ingram is the true version of the player, as opposed to the 2011-13 model.
Returning Impact Players For Contenders
The NFL’s second half is getting underway this week, and it’s not too early to point to specific games as crucial for playoff positioning, as teams jockey for divisions and Wild Card openings. Last night’s contest between the Saints and Panthers, for instance, could ultimately have a real impact on which team wins the NFC South.
As we near the home stretch of the 2014 season, several teams could get a boost from returning players who have been sidelined for most or all of the year. These players won’t necessarily swing playoff races, but their teams will certainly welcome them back with open arms as a way of fortifying rosters that may be plagued by various injuries and ailments.
Listed below are a handful of players worth keeping an eye on during the season’s second half. These players are on track to return from longer-term injuries or suspensions, and could have an impact down the stretch, perhaps helping to buoy their respective teams into postseason berths. While the returns of other players, like Cincinnati’s A.J. Green, will also obviously be massive for their respective teams, shorter-term absences like Green’s aren’t noted here.
Cincinnati Bengals: Tyler Eifert (TE)
Green’s return may have a more significant impact on the Bengals’ offense, but Eifert shouldn’t be overlooked. The young tight end was expected to take on a larger role this season, and had already caught three balls in the team’s Week 1 contest before he suffered a dislocated elbow. Since he received the designation to return when he was placed on IR, Eifert is eligible to practice now and is expected to be activated for the club’s Week 11 game against the Saints.
Cleveland Browns: Josh Gordon (WR)
The Browns currently sit in last place in the competitive AFC North, so it’s fair to question whether they’re a legit contender. Still, at 4-3, they’re right on the heels of the division-leading 4-2-1 Bengals, and with a soft schedule and the 2013’s leading receiver due back soon, there’s reason for optimism in Cleveland. Taking into account the Browns’ bye, Gordon’s 10-game ban means he’s eligible to return for Week 12, and it’ll be interesting to see what Brian Hoyer – or, perhaps, Johnny Manziel – can do during the season’s final six weeks with a weapon like Gordon at his disposal.
Dallas Cowboys: Demarcus Lawrence (DE/OLB)
We’ve yet to see what Lawrence is capable of at the NFL level, since the first half of his rookie season has been wiped out by a broken foot. But this is a player for whom the Cowboys traded up to No. 34 in May’s draft, and the team is looking forward to getting him back this weekend. Dallas’ defense has been surprisingly effective so far, but it certainly hasn’t been infallible, and a player like Lawrence will help fortify the team’s pass rush. It’s also worth monitoring defensive tackle Josh Brent, whose 10-game ban will soon expire — Brent may not see a ton of snaps right away, but the fact that the Cowboys have stuck with him indicates he remains very much in the team’s plans.
Detroit Lions: Kyle Van Noy (LB)
Like Lawrence, Van Noy is an early second-round pick who we’ve yet to see play in a regular season game. Of course, the Lions’ defense has been so effective that the team can afford to ease Van Noy in slowly if it so chooses, but this is a player who was initially penciled in as a three-down starter during the preseason. While he may not receive that kind of workload when he returns this weekend, I expect he’ll become a bigger part of Detroit’s D by December.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jason Kelce (C), Evan Mathis (G)
Eagles fans and LeSean McCoy‘s fantasy owners alike will welcome the return of this standout duo of interior offensive linemen. Kelce appears ready to return to action this weekend, while Mathis is expected to be activated for the following week, which is great news for an offensive line that has been shorthanded virtually all season. Assuming Kelce and Mathis are both healthy and remain as effective as ever, McCoy should start finding a few more holes and Nick Foles may be a little more comfortable in the pocket.
San Diego Chargers: Melvin Ingram (LB), Ryan Mathews (RB), Manti Te’o (LB)
Few – if any – teams have been hit harder this season by injuries than the Chargers, but reinforcements are on the way. In addition to players like Brandon Flowers and Jeremiah Attaochu being on the mend, the trio noted here is recovering well from longer-term injuries. Ingram, Mathews, and Te’o have each been sidelined since at least Week 3, but if all goes well, all three players could be back in action again following the club’s Week 10 bye.
San Francisco 49ers: NaVorro Bowman (LB), Aldon Smith (LB)
Heading into the season, many pundits viewed the Niners as a candidate to fall out of the postseason this year in large part due to the extended absences of Bowman and Smith. The team has hung in there so far though, and should finally be getting their standout linebackers back in November. Even if Smith’s nine-game ban isn’t reduced by a game or two, a rumor which appears increasingly unlikely, he’ll be eligible to return for the Niners’ Week 11 contest against the Giants, and I’d expect Bowman to be back a week or two after that. With December showdowns against the Seahawks, Chargers, and Cardinals on tap, San Francisco could be getting two of its best defenders back just in time to affect the playoff picture.
Outlook For Trade Candidates Who Stayed Put
As is typically the case, the 2014 trade deadline was a fairly quiet affair. While the Seahawks and Jets made headlines earlier this month when they completed a swap that sent Percy Harvin to New York, Tuesday’s actual deadline day didn’t feature those sort of fireworks. The Buccaneers were the NFL’s only real seller, shipping former first-round safety Mark Barron to the Rams and linebacker Jonathan Casillas to New England.
Even though Tampa Bay was active at the deadline, the team still held onto several notable players who had been frequently cited as trade candidates in recent weeks, including Vincent Jackson, Doug Martin, and Dashon Goldson. And there were many other players around the league who appeared to be viable trade candidates who weren’t moved, and remain with their teams.
So it’s worth examining what the outlook is for those players as the 2014 season enters its home stretch and the offseason looms. In some instances, the fact that these players were viewed as guys who could – or should – be dealt suggests that their days with their current clubs are limited, but that’s not always the case. Starting with those three Bucs who stayed put, let’s take a closer look at the futures of 10 players who were mentioned at least as trade candidates, but weren’t dealt by Tuesday afternoon….
Vincent Jackson (WR), Buccaneers
Contract situation: Under contract through 2016. Owed base salary of $9.778MM in 2015 ($12.21MM cap hit).
2015 outlook: Jackson’s ’15 base salary and cap hit are nearly identical to his ’14 figures, so if the Bucs were willing to keep him around at those figures this season, it stands to reason that they could do so again next year. Of course, coming into 2014, Jackson had averaged 75 receptions, 1,304, and eight touchdowns during his two seasons in Tampa Bay, making him one of the league’s most productive wideouts. So far this season, he’s on pace for a 59-816-5 line. Even if that dropoff can be blamed on Tampa Bay’s poor quarterback play, that sort of production isn’t worth carrying a $12MM+ cap hit, which makes Jackson a strong candidate to be cut or restructure his deal.
Doug Martin (RB), Buccaneers
Contract situation: Under contract through 2015. Owed base salary of $1.316MM in 2015 ($2.16MM cap hit).
2015 outlook: While Martin is still receiving plenty of carries for Tampa Bay, it certainly seems as if the team would be fine with splitting carries between Bobby Rainey and rookie Charles Sims, when Sims gets healthy. Martin is a former first-round pick, has a 1,450-yard season on his resumé, and is still on an inexpensive contract, so it’s unlikely he’ll be cut before his rookie deal expires. But if he’s not in the Bucs’ long-term plans, a trade would make the most sense — perhaps his name will resurface as a trade candidate in the offseason.
Dashon Goldson (S), Buccaneers
Contract situation: Under contract through 2017. Owed base salary of $7.5MM in 2015 ($4MM guaranteed, $8MM cap hit).
2015 outlook: With Barron out of the picture in Tampa Bay, it may just be a matter of time until the team’s other apparent cornerstone at safety follows him out the door. Since signing a massive five-year deal with the team in March of 2013, Goldson has underwhelmed, receiving a -14.4 grade from Pro Football Focus last season and a -8.3 mark so far this year (subscription required). His ’15 base salary includes $4MM in guaranteed money, so perhaps the club tries to make it work for one more year, but with no prorated bonus money counting against the cap, it also wouldn’t be hard for the Bucs to walk away if they decide he’s not the right fit for Lovie Smith’s defense.
Tony Carter (CB), Broncos
Contract situation: Eligible for unrestricted free agency at season’s end.
2015 outlook: Carter has been a forgotten man in Denver this season, given the team’s depth at cornerback, but he did generate some interest at the deadline and could be a bargain in free agency this offseason. The Broncos will likely do everything they can to lock up cornerback Chris Harris, who has played very well this season, but if the team’s cap limitations prevent a deal with Harris, Carter could remain with the team beyond this season as a less expensive option at nickel back.
Justin Tuck (DE), Raiders
Contract situation: Under contract through 2015. Owed base salary of $3.35MM in 2015 ($5MM cap hit).
2015 outlook: Tuck isn’t racking up huge sack numbers in Oakland, but PFF’s numbers rate him as a top-10 3-4 defensive end so far this season (subscription required). His salary figures for 2015 are about the same as this year’s, so he’d probably represent a decent value, but there are other factors at play here. Most notably, if the Raiders continue to be the NFL’s worst team, it seems realistic that a new GM and head coach could be in place by the spring. In that case, perhaps a new regime would prefer to get out of Tuck’s deal, which wouldn’t have any dead money, opting instead for younger players at the position.
Jermaine Gresham (TE), Bengals
Contract situation: Eligible for unrestricted free agency at season’s end.
2015 outlook: If it wasn’t clear before that Gresham isn’t part of the Bengals’ future plans, the fact that he was identified as a trade candidate even while Tyler Eifert remained on the shelf is an indication that his time in Cincinnati is nearly up. I’d expect to see him sign elsewhere when he hits the open market in March.
Kendall Langford (DT), Rams
Contract situation: Under contract through 2015. Owed base salary of $6MM in 2015 ($7MM cap hit).
2015 outlook: While Langford hasn’t played poorly for the Rams, he’s becoming increasingly expendable given the presence of first-round picks Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers. With only $1MM in dead money on Langford’s contract for 2015, I’d expect to see St. Louis cut him this winter and use that $6MM on multiple players, possibly including a cheaper defensive tackle option to complement Donald and Brockers.
Nate Washington (WR), Titans
Contract situation: Eligible for unrestricted free agency at season’s end.
2015 outlook: Washington has played for the Titans since 2009, so he may want to continue his career with the team when his contract expires at season’s end. But if there’s mutual interest in a new deal, it would probably have to be at a rate less than his current $4.8MM salary, given the presence of Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright, and Washington’s declining role in the offense.
Michael Griffin (S), Titans
Contract situation: Under contract through 2016. Owed base salary of $6.3MM in 2015 ($8.1MM cap hit).
2015 outlook: Griffin’s 2015 cap and salary figures are nearly identical to his 2014 totals, but I’m guessing the Titans will be less inclined to commit to him for next season, particularly with less dead money left on his deal. The veteran safety hasn’t looked like an ideal fit in Tennessee’s new defensive scheme and has struggled to make plays. Releasing him for 2015 would generate $4.5MM in cap savings, and could make real sense for the Titans.
Wesley Woodyard (LB), Titans
Contract situation: Under contract through 2017. Owed base salary of $2.75MM in 2015 ($3.5MM cap hit)
2015 outlook: Unlike Griffin and Akeem Ayers, Woodyard was just signed by the Titans this offseason, so if he’s not viewed as a fit in the team’s defense, the new regime only has itself to blame. Still, the fact that Woodyard was mentioned as a possible trade candidate may have had less to do with his fit in Tennessee, and more to do with the fact that he’s a fairly inexpensive and versatile player who could’ve brought back a moderate return in a deal. The 28-year-old’s base salary isn’t guaranteed for 2015, so the team could consider trading or releasing him, but he seems like a reasonable bet to be back with the Titans next season.
PFR Originals: 10/19/14 – 10/26/14
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- We rolled out the Trade Rumors App, which allows you to access content from PFR, MLB Trade Rumors, and Hoops Rumors all on one platform. It’s available for both iOS and Android, and best of all, it’s free!
- Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
- We learned that the Broncos don’t plan of signing either Demaryius or Julius Thomas to an in-season extension, leading Luke Adams to ask if Denver should work hardest to extend one of the two Thomases or corner Chris Harris. Nearly 68% of voters said Demaryius Thomas should be the highest priority.
- Trade buzz has surrounded multiple Titans, so Zach wondered which of Nate Washington, Michael Griffin, and Wesley Woodyard was most likely to be traded. About half of respondents though Washington was the favorite to get shipped out of Tennessee. Thanks for voting!
Update On Traded 2015 Draft Picks
The trade that sent Percy Harvin from Seattle to the Jets this past week was the latest example of a swap in which the draft pick involved in the deal is tied to a condition which will affect the value of that pick. In the case of the Harvin deal, the pick Seattle acquired reportedly can become a fourth-rounder if the wideout remains on the Jets’ roster beyond this season, but if New York moves on from Harvin in the offseason, the 2015 pick will be a sixth-rounder.
Considering we haven’t even seen Harvin suit up for the Jets yet, we’re nowhere close to knowing whether he’ll remain in the team’s plans for 2015, so that conditional pick remains very much up in the air. However, there are a number of other conditional picks whose outlook is much clearer. Here’s an update on several of the picks that could change hands in 2015:
Conditions met, or likely to be met:
- Dolphins acquired 49ers‘ seventh-round pick for Jonathan Martin: Martin had to make San Francisco’s opening day 53-man roster for this pick to change hands, which he did.
- Giants acquired Broncos‘ seventh-round pick for Brandon McManus. The deal required McManus to remain the Broncos’ kicker even after Matt Prater‘s four-game suspension ended for the Giants to acquire the pick, which he did.
- Ravens acquiring Cowboys‘ sixth-round pick for Rolando McClain: McClain needs to play in 50% of the Cowboys’ defensive snaps for Baltimore to land this pick, and so far, he has played in about 81%, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Assuming he meets the criteria, the Ravens would sent their seventh-round pick to Dallas in exchange for the Cowboys’ sixth-rounder.
- Titans acquiring Cowboys‘ seventh-round pick for Lavar Edwards: Edwards must spend at least 10 games on the Cowboys’ roster for Tennessee to grab this pick, and so far he has been on the team for all but one contest. He’ll need four more games on the 53-man roster for the Titans to get the pick.
Conditions not met, or unlikely to be met:
- Packers won’t acquire Patriots‘ seventh-round pick for Jerel Worthy: Worthy had to make the Pats’ opening day 53-man roster for Green Bay to get this pick, but he was waived during preseason cutdowns.
- Panthers likely won’t acquire Eagles‘ seventh-round pick for Kenjon Barner: Barner must spend at least four games on Philadelphia’s 46-man game day roster for this pick to change hands. Considering Barner hasn’t even been on the team’s roster since the season began, this appears unlikely.
- Jaguars likely won’t acquire pick from 49ers for Blaine Gabbert: The Jags would’ve landed a pick if Gabbert started eight or more games in 2014. Unless Colin Kaepernick goes down with a serious injury in the team’s next game, this won’t happen.
For details on all of 2015’s traded draft picks, be sure to check out our complete list.
PFR Originals: 10/12/14 – 10/19/14
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Luke Adams looked at the 2014 performances of 2011 first-round picks, including those who have signed contract extensions (such as Patrick Peterson and Tyron Smith), and those who have not, like Cam Newton and A.J. Green.
- Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
- Luke wondered which 5-1 team is the strongest contender — the Chargers beat out the Eagles and the Cowboys with nearly 50% of the vote.
- Following the stunning Percy Harvin trade, Rob DiRe asked a simple question: who won the deal? The vote is nearly split in half, as 51% of respondents believe the Jets won the trade.
- Rob also asked what Rex Ryan will be doing next season, with the implication that he isn’t long for New York. Many of you agree, as about 38% of voters think Ryan will be working as television commentator in 2015.
Examining Extensions For 2011 First-Rounders
2011’s first-round picks became eligible for contract extensions for the first time after the 2013 season, but with the new CBA allowing teams to pick up fifth-year options on players’ four-year rookie contracts, there wasn’t much urgency for most teams to get anything long-term worked out with their former first-rounders. Still, a handful of clubs moved quickly to get players locked up, with Patrick Peterson (Cardinals), Tyron Smith (Cowboys), J.J. Watt (Texans), and Robert Quinn (Rams) all inking new deals.
All four of those players are considered among the best at their respective positions, so it makes sense that their teams wouldn’t want negotiations to drag out. In Smith’s case, the Cowboys also got a fairly team-friendly deal, agreeing to an eight-year extension that keeps the standout left tackle under team control for 10 seasons in total, and didn’t feature a ton of guaranteed money up front.
While it’s still too early to say definitively if those extensions were good or bad moves for the four clubs, the early returns haven’t been positive in every instance. Peterson acknowledged to Bob Baum of The Associated Press that he’s not happy with his play so far in the 2014 season. After drawing some constructive criticism from his head coach and GM, the cornerback vowed that he absolutely intends to step up his game going forward.
“It comes with the territory by being the highest-paid cornerback and being recognized as one of the top cornerbacks in the league,” Peterson said of the criticism. “Is that something that I might shy away from? Not at all. Is it something I’m scared of? Am I worried about the concerns or criticisms I’m getting thus far in the season? Not at all, because we have 11 games to go. I have a lot of games to improve.”
With an assist from Pro Football Focus, here’s a breakdown of how each of the four 2011 first-rounders who signed extensions have come out of the gates so far in 2014:
- Peterson: PFF’s data supports the notion that Peterson has struggled so far, as his -4.1 grade puts him in a tie for 77th among 103 qualified cornerbacks. Quarterbacks have recorded a staggering 132.4 rating throwing into Peterson’s coverage, with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
- Quinn: A year after leading the NFC with 19 sacks, Quinn hasn’t gotten to the quarterback once in the Rams’ first five games this season. As a team, the Rams have just one sack so far, an historically low total. Quinn is still putting some pressure on opposing signal-callers, with 12 QB pressures, but he has struggled against the run and with penalties, and ranks well below average among 4-3 defensive ends so far, per PFF.
- Smith: The Week 6 winner of the NFC Offensive Player of the Week award, Smith actually recorded his worst PFF grade of the year against the Seahawks on Sunday, with a -3.5 mark. Still, he’d been his usual dominant self before that, and assuming an ankle issue doesn’t slow him down too much, we can expect him to continue anchoring the Cowboys’ impressive offensive line.
- Watt: Watt recorded one of the most outstanding defensive games since PFF’s inception in Week 4 against the Bills, logging nine quarterback hits, six QB hurries, and an insane +15.0 grade for just 70 snaps. The star defensive lineman appears well on his way to another MVP-caliber season, and if anything, his six-year, $100MM contract looks like a bargain at this point.
Those four players and teams have made the decision to continue their working relationships for the foreseeable future, but many other extension candidates from the first round of the 2011 draft continue to play out their rookie deals, and will be eligible for free agency after their 2015 option year. Here’s a look at a few key names from that group, and how they’ve fared during the season’s first month and a half, per PFF:
- Cam Newton (Panthers): Despite battling some health issues and working with a revamped receiving corps, Newton’s combination of a +11.8 passing grade and a +2.2 rushing grade has him ranked first among quarterbacks so far, making it increasingly unlikely that he’ll come at a discount for the Panthers.
- Von Miller (Broncos): Miller is on pace to match or exceed his 2012 mark of 18.5 sacks, and he certainly hasn’t been a one-dimensional player — he ranks first among 4-3 outside linebackers as both a pass rusher and a run stopper, according to PFF’s data. If he stays healthy and continues to have a huge year, Miller could push for a multiyear pact in the range of Tamba Hali‘s five-year deal ($11.5MM annually).
- A.J. Green (Bengals) / Julio Jones (Falcons): Despite playing just 166 offensive snaps so far, Green ranks 12th among wideouts with a +3.7 grade, and Jones is right behind him at +3.4. Both receivers are considered top-five players at the position, and they’ll likely be keeping a close eye on Dez Bryant, who is scheduled to hit free agency this coming spring.
- Ryan Kerrigan (Redskins): Fellow Washington outside linebacker Brian Orakpo made more headlines this offseason when he was franchised by the team and couldn’t work out a long-term deal, but it’s Kerrigan who’s wreaking havoc in opposing backfields so far this season. According to PFF, no 3-4 outside linebacker has more overall QB pressures than Kerrigan, who has 31 combined sacks, hits, and hurries. With rookie Trent Murphy now in the mix as well, it’s unlikely that Washington will commit long-term to both Orakpo and Kerrigan, and Kerrigan is certainly making the case that he’s the one worth locking up.
- Jimmy Smith (Ravens): Quarterbacks are averaging just 7.5 yards per completion against Smith, and posting a dismal 50.5 rating when throwing into his coverage. Considering how uncertain and shaky the production has been at the Ravens’ other corner and nickel spots, Smith’s performance has been huge. It’ll be interesting to see how contract talks go with Smith, who is steadily establishing himself an invaluable piece of the Baltimore secondary.
- Muhammad Wilkerson (Jets): No other 3-4 defensive end is in the same vicinity as Watt, per PFF’s grades, but Wilkerson is the clear runner-up so far, ranking in the top three as both a pass rusher (+9.0) and run defender (+8.8). An annual salary around $11-12MM seems well within reach for the Jets lineman.
PFR Originals: 10/5/14 – 10/12/14
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- With Brian Hoyer off to a great start, Luke Adams examined the extension case for the 29-year-old Browns quarterback. In the same vein, Luke asked whether Hoyer, Johnny Manziel, or a third option would be under center for Cleveland in 2015; nearly 60% of respondents selected Hoyer.
- In another entry in our Extension Candidate series, I looked at the possibility of Randall Cobb reaching a long-term deal with the Packers.
- Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
- Zach also posted two AFC East-related polls last week. First, he wondered whether head coach Rex Ryan or general manager John Idzik should take the blame for the Jets’ futility; about 61% felt the blame rested on Idzik’s shoulders. Second, Zach questioned how Tom Brady‘s career was likely to end — a majority of readers feel Tom Terrific will play out the string with the Patriots.
- Luke passed along updates on players on the PUP or IR-DTR lists, explaining when such players are eligible to begin practicing and return to game action.
- I examined kicker Matt Prater‘s free agent stock before he signed on with the Lions.