Ravens Likely To Franchise Justin Tucker
The Ravens are likely to use the franchise tag on Justin Tucker if they can’t reach a new deal with him soon, writes Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun. Teams can begin assigning the franchise or transition tag to their own players as of today, though most clubs planning on using a tag will likely wait until closer to the March 1st deadline.
[RELATED: 2016 franchise tag candidates]
“He’s a great candidate for this year and next year to be franchised if they can’t come to an agreement,” one industry source with knowledge of the Ravens’ salary cap situation said of Tucker.
“A long-term deal for him, he’s going to be paid as a top two or three kicker, which means he’s going to be close to $20MM, which is the [Stephen] Gostkowski money. Do you want to give him $20MM or do you want to just give him the one-year franchise tag and see how it goes? It’s the obvious move, and history has shown it. There is no other viable candidate and he’s the most valuable commodity.”
For his career, Tucker has connected on 130 of 148 field-goal attempts (87.8%), with 12 of those 18 overall misses coming from 50 yards or longer. He has also nailed an eye-popping 10 game-winning field goals, including three in 2015.
The franchise salary for Tucker will depend on where exactly the salary cap lands, but it will be by far the least expensive of any position besides punter. Based on a $154MM cap, kickers and punters would be in line for a 2016 salary of $4.534MM on the non-exclusive franchise tag. Considering GM Ozzie Newsome has previously said he’s willing to use the tag to keep Tucker in the mix, it’s no surprise that the team appears to be preparing for that possibility as the franchise window opens.
I identified Tucker as one of the NFL’s stronger possibilities for a franchise tag in my Monday look at the candidates. If the Ravens can lock up their kicker to a longer-term deal prior to March 1, offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele could also be a candidate to be tagged, though he’s viewed as more of a long shot.
Zach Links contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
DeAndre Hopkins Wants To Spend Career With Texans
As a 2013 draftee, Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is eligible for a contract extension for the first time this winter. Houston may not rush into negotiations, since the team still holds a fifth-year option on Hopkins for 2017, but if it were up to him, the wideout would welcome a long-term offer to remain with the Texans. In fact, Hopkins wouldn’t mind spending his entire career in Houston, as Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle writes.
[RELATED: Texans to seek quarterback upgrade]
“If I can play my whole career here, I would,” Hopkins said. “I love this place. This organization took a chance on drafting me. You have to look at that…. I love this organization. I love the fans here. I’ll never forget after we went 2-14 (2013), I don’t recall too many fans bailing out on us. It speaks a lot about this city and who they are.”
Despite catching passes from a rotating cast of quarterbacks since making his NFL debut in 2013, Hopkins has managed to take major steps forward each season, and is now one of the most productive pass-catchers in the league. After grabbing 76 balls for 1,210 yards and six touchdowns in 2014, the Clemson product improved his numbers across the board en route to his first Pro Bowl nod in 2015, recording 111 receptions, 1,521 receiving yards, and 11 TDs.
There has been no indication yet that the Texans have engaged in contract extension negotiations with Hopkins, but there’s still plenty of time to do so. Houston’s previous deal with J.J. Watt also shows that the club is willing to get something done with its top players well before their fifth-year options take effect. Watt and the Texans reached an agreement in early September during the fourth year of Watt’s rookie contract, so if the team follows the same script this time around, that could mean getting serious about a Hopkins extension in the summer.
While Hopkins may want to remain in Houston for his entire NFL career, that doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily want to take a hometown discount. As Wilson outlines, the 23-year-old recently switched agents, hiring Creative Artists Agency to represent him. Star receivers like Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, and Demaryius Thomas all had their recent mega-deals – which are each worth around $14MM per year – negotiated by CAA reps.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NFC North Notes: Lions, Bears, Guion
The Lions and Bears each formally announced additions to their coaching staff today, with Detroit naming a new quarterbacks coach and Chicago confirming a new wide receivers coach.
As previously reported, the Lions’ new QBs coach is Brian Callahan, who spent the last six seasons with the Broncos, and has previously worked with Detroit offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. In 2015, Callahan was an offensive assistant in Denver, playing a part in coaching the club’s QBs.
As for the Bears, their new wide receivers coach is Curtis Johnson, who had been Tulane’s head coach for the past four seasons after serving as the WRs coach for the Saints from 2006 to 2011. Joining Johnson in Chicago is Ben McDaniels, whose hiring was also reported last Friday. Josh McDaniels‘ brother officially joins the Bears as an offensive assistant.
Here’s more from around the NFC North:
- According to Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter link), Letroy Guion‘s new contract with the Packers features a modest $500K signing bonus. Silverstein adds that the deal includes “$1.5MM more later,” though it’s not clear if that refers to a signing bonus or his 2016 salary. Friday reports indicated the three-year pact is worth a total of $11.25MM.
- Having locked up two key defensive players – Mike Daniels and Guion – who would have been eligible for free agency this winter, the Packers‘ next priority may be a special-teamer, according to Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, who examines kicker Mason Crosby‘s impending free agency.
- Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com explores the possibility of cornerback Tracy Porter re-signing with the Bears for the 2016 season after a strong 2015 campaign.
2016 NFL Salary Cap May Exceed $155MM
The NFL’s salary cap is expected to jump to at least $155MM for the 2016 season, reports Rand Getlin of the NFL Network (via Twitter). If the cap does land above that $155MM threshold, it would represent the most substantial increase of the last several years.
Back in December, one report indicated that the league office had informed teams the 2016 salary cap would likely be in the range of $147MM-155MM. However, Adam Schefter of ESPN.com followed that up by reporting that there was likely a smaller gap on those projected figures, suggesting a salary cap between $150MM and $153.4MM for 2016 appeared likely. As such, today’s $155MM+ projection is the largest estimate we’ve heard so far.
The NFL won’t officially announce the new salary cap number until a few days before the 2016 league year begins, so it will probably be at least a couple more weeks before we know that number for sure. Still, it seems the cap will continue the incredible upward trajectory it has been on since 2013. Here’s what the league’s salary cap has looked like over the last few years:
- 2013: $123MM
- 2014: $133MM
- 2015: $143.28MM
- 2016: $155MM+?
The rapidly increasing cap will have to be taken into account when evaluating player salaries on new contracts and extensions signed in 2016. For instance, Aaron Rodgers signed an extension worth $22MM per year in 2013, at a time when that annual salary would have represented about 17.89% of the total cap. That same percentage of a $155MM cap would work out to $27.72MM. That’s something worth considering as the Colts negotiate a long-term contract with Andrew Luck.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dolphins Hope To Re-Sign Lamar Miller
Re-signing running back Lamar Miller is a top priority for the Dolphins this offseason, according to Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald, who hears from a source that the team “definitely” wants Miller back in the fold for the 2016 season.
[RELATED: Offseason Outlook: Miami Dolphins]
While the Dolphins are “bullish” on Miller behind the scenes, his price tag will be the sticking point when it comes to the club’s ability to re-sign him. According to Beasley, industry insiders are estimating that Miller will earn a contract that averages somewhere around $5MM per year. That figure seems reasonable, though it’s not clear yet if Miami has a cutoff point when it comes to annual salary or guaranteed money.
Miami doesn’t currently have a ton of cap space, and there are other free agents and extension candidates the team will want to address this offseason. However, there plenty of players who could be released or have their contracts restructured in order to create some flexibility. Most notably, reworking Ndamukong Suh‘s deal could create more than $17MM in cap savings.
Still, assuming the Dolphins do restructure Suh’s contract and make other cost-cutting moves, the team will have to decide whether it wants to dedicate a chunk of those savings to the running back position, where inexpensive second-year back Jay Ajayi could be ready to handle a larger load in 2016. Miami has also been cited as a possible suitor for free agent running back Matt Forte, who figures to command a per-year salary similar to Miller’s and may be interested in reuniting with former Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase.
As the Dolphins weigh their offseason moves, Olivier Vernon‘s future will also be a key issue, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald details. A team source tells Jackson that the Dolphins have yet to tell Vernon how much they’re willing to offer him on a new deal. Earlier today, I identified Vernon as a viable candidate for the franchise tag.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
2016 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates
On Tuesday, February 16th, NFL teams will be able to place franchise and transition tags on potential free agents for the first time. While the window for franchise tags opens at that point, most clubs won’t actually tag any players right away.
As our list of important dates for the 2016 offseason shows, the deadline for teams to assign those franchise and transition tags comes two weeks later, on Tuesday, March 1st. Generally when it comes to NFL contract discussions, deadlines spur action, so teams will likely wait until closer to that March deadline to officially use franchise tags, once it becomes clear that they won’t be able to strike a longer-term deal yet with their respective free-agents-to-be.
Even though the action might not heat up for a couple more weeks, it’s worth taking a closer look at what to expect during 2016’s franchise tag period. We don’t know yet what the exact salary amounts for franchise tags will be, since the NFL has yet to announce the salary cap figure for the coming year. But back in November, former agent Joel Corry of CBSSports.com projected the 2016 franchise tag salaries, based on a presumed cap of $154MM. Here are the non-exclusive franchise tag amounts projected by Corry:
- Quarterback: $19.748MM
- Running back: $11.871MM
- Wide receiver: $14.527MM
- Tight end: $9.053MM
- Offensive line: $13.678MM
- Defensive end: $15.494MM
- Defensive tackle: $13.368MM
- Linebacker: $14.131MM
- Cornerback: $13.838MM
- Safety: $10.717MM
- Punter/kicker: $4.534MM
Those numbers are unlikely to be 100% accurate, but the actual figures won’t be drastically different, so we can use them as points of reference when considering which players are candidates to be franchised in 2016.
For a refresher on the characteristics of the exclusive and non-exclusive franchise tags, as well as the transition tag, be sure to check out PFR’s glossary entry on the subject. Once you’re up to speed, let’s dive in and take a look at the most likely candidates to be tagged, along with several more outside possibilities….
Virtual locks:
Broncos pass rusher Von Miller was viewed as the top player in this year’s group of potential free agents even before he terrorized Cam Newton in Santa Clara and earned Super Bowl MVP honors. Now, there’s no doubt that Denver will do all it can to retain the former second overall pick. The only questions for Miller are whether he’ll reach a long-term deal with the Broncos before the club needs to franchise him, and whether he’d get the exclusive or non-exclusive tag.
Panthers cornerback Josh Norman didn’t make the same impact in Super Bowl 50 that Miller did, but Carolina still seems likely to franchise him to avoid letting him hit the open market. The franchise tag for cornerbacks is projected to be worth nearly $14MM, but the Panthers are in better cap shape than they have been in recent years, and can afford to take the hit.
Meanwhile, it has been a few years since a quarterback was franchised, but Washington signal-caller Kirk Cousins is a strong candidate. Reports have indicated the team won’t let him get away, but the two sides apparently aren’t close to a multiyear agreement, which makes the franchise tag the most logical option at this point.
Strong candidates:
A year or two ago, Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery would have been a no-brainer candidate for the franchise tag. However, 2015 was an up-and-down season for Jeffery, who only played in nine games due to injury issues. When he did play, Jeffery was excellent, averaging a career-high 89.7 yards per game, and few teams have more projected cap room this offseason than Chicago, so it seems unlikely that the team would let the wideout get away — especially given how weak the market for receivers is this year, outside of Jeffery.
The Jets are facing an interesting predicament on their defensive line with Damon Harrison and Muhammad Wilkerson eligible for free agency this winter. Harrison isn’t a franchise tag candidate, and the Jets could conceivably re-sign him at a reasonable price, then move forward with a defensive line of Harrison, Sheldon Richardson, and Leonard Williams. However, letting an asset like Wilkerson get away for nothing isn’t great business, which is why he has been viewed as an intriguing tag-and-trade candidate for New York.
Elsewhere in the AFC East, the Bills and Dolphins don’t have a ton of cap flexibility, which could affect their decisions on offensive tackle Cordy Glenn and defensive end Olivier Vernon, respectively. There are ways for Buffalo and Miami to create the space necessary to tag their free-agents-to-be, but 
both teams already have plenty of highly-paid veterans on their books, so the decisions aren’t no-brainers. I think Glenn, at least, is slightly more likely than not to be tagged, but both players could conceivably reach the open market.
Safety Eric Berry had a tremendous comeback season in 2015, and it would put something of a damper on that story for the Chiefs to allow him to sign elsewhere next month. A $10MM+ price tag for a safety isn’t cheap, but it’s a more affordable tag than most positions, so I think Kansas City will have to strongly consider using it if the team can’t agree on a longer-term contract with Berry. As last year’s negotiations with Justin Houston showed, the Chiefs aren’t afraid to franchise a player, then work out a multiyear pact with him later in the offseason.
One position that’s significantly cheaper than safety is kicker, where Corry projects a salary in the $4.5MM range. The Ravens and Justin Tucker have reportedly been negotiating a potential extension for over a year, but with the franchise deadline approaching, the team isn’t afraid to use a tag on Tucker, if it comes to that.
Long shots:
The Jets want to extend Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Eagles have spoken highly of Sam Bradford, but it appears unlikely that either quarterback will get franchised. At least one report has indicated that the Eagles aren’t expected to use their franchise tag to retain Bradford, and a price tag of nearly $20MM seems too high for Fitzpatrick.
Like Fitzpatrick, Buccaneers running back Doug Martin is a player whose team badly wants to re-sign him, but may view the franchise tag salary as too high. For running backs, the tag could be worth nearly $12MM, which would make Martin the second-highest-paid RB in the NFL – behind Adrian Peterson – by a comfortable margin. For a player who has been as inconsistent as Martin, that seems excessive.
A handful of offensive linemen are possible candidates to be tagged by their respective teams, including Kelechi Osemele (Ravens), Russell Okung (Seahawks), Mitchell Schwartz (Browns), Kelvin Beachum (Steelers), and Andre Smith (Bengals). However, I’d be a little surprised if even one of those five got the franchise tag. Since there’s only one price tag for all offensive linemen, the projected salary ($13.678MM) is left-tackle money, and Osemele, Schwartz, and Smith haven’t seen much – if any – playing time at left tackle. As for Okung and Beachum, I’m skeptical that their teams will want to invest too heavily in them, since they haven’t been consistently healthy and elite in recent years.
If the Broncos strike a long-term deal with Miller soon, it would free up the franchise tag for quarterback Brock Osweiler or defensive end Malik Jackson. Even in the unlikely event that Miller and the Broncos agree to terms quickly though, the franchise salaries for Osweiler and Jackson may be a little too high.
Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul got the franchise tag last year, but it’ll be pricier this season, and obviously there are more question marks this time around, given the state of his right hand. As such, I don’t think he’s a real candidate to be tagged, despite New York’s significant cap space. Bengals safety Reggie Nelson seems like a similar long-shot — he had another good season in 2015, earning his first Pro Bowl nod, but it would be surprising to see a team commit $10MM+ to a 33-year-old safety.
Finally, Tucker isn’t the only kicker or punter who has a shot to be tagged. Jaguars punter Bryan Anger, Raiders punter Marquette King, and Packers kicker Mason Crosby are among the other special teams candidates. They’re all less likely than Tucker to be franchised, but the Jags and Raiders have the most cap room in the NFL, so they could certainly afford it.
East Notes: Schwartz, D. Jackson, Galette, Fins
After watching the Giants post 6-10 records for two consecutive seasons, Geoff Schwartz will be eyeing a contending team in free agency, the recently released offensive lineman told Sirius XM Radio (Twitter link).
“I want to go to a winner. I’m tired of congratulating my friends on winning Super Bowls,” Schwartz said.
Schwartz probably won’t receive a four-year contract like he signed with the Giants two years ago, considering the guard/tackle has only played in 13 games the past two seasons, but the $4.2MM AAV on that deal may still be in the ballpark of what the 29-year-old Schwartz seeks. Pro Football Focus rated him as the league’s 20th-best guard last season, even though he only played 11 games.
Here’s more from around the NFL’s East divisions:
- DeSean Jackson only has one year left on his contract with Washington, and the team would create nearly $7MM in cap savings by cutting him, but such a move doesn’t really makes sense, according to John Keim of ESPN.com. If anything, Keim writes, Washington should explore the possibility of tacking a couple more years onto Jackson’s deal.
- Mike Jones of the Washington Post explores another contract situation in Washington, examining what sort of offer the club should make to pass rusher Junior Galette. According to Jones, people familiar with Galette’s thinking believe he might prefer a one-year pact in order to rebuild his value and land a big, multiyear contract a year from now. However, Galette also may be unwilling to sign another low-salary deal, preferring something in the range of $7-9MM. That could be too pricey for Washington, complicating negotiations.
- James Walker of ESPN.com debates whether the Dolphins should take a rebuilding approach this offseason, or simply retool their roster and attempt to win now. Walker comes down in favor of a rebuild, arguing that quick fixes haven’t worked in Miami and that the team should recommit to building through the draft.
Sam Robinson contributed to this post.
Minor NFL Transactions: 2/12/16
Here are Friday’s minor signings, cuts, and other moves from across the NFL:
- The Steelers have re-signed long snapper Greg Warren to another one-year deal, tweets Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Warren, who typically inks one-year contracts with the maximum allowable signing bonus for a minimum salary benefit player, has served as the Steelers’ long snapper since 2005, appearing in 164 regular-season games during that time.
- The Jaguars have signed Josh Johnson to a free agent contract, PR rep Tad Dickman announced today (via Twitter). This Josh Johnson isn’t the former Buccaneers and Bengals quarterback, but rather a cornerback from the CFL. Johnson played for the B.C. Lions last season, recording 56 tackles, an interception, and a sack, before trying out for the Jags in December.
Dolphins Cut Quinton Coples, Brice McCain
4:40pm: The Dolphins confirmed that they have terminated the contracts for Coples and McCain (Twitter link).
3:31pm: The Dolphins will soon release a former first-round pick, according to Rand Getlin of the NFL Network, who reports (via Twitter) that the team is parting ways with defensive end Quinton Coples. Coples didn’t last long in Miami, with the Dolphins having claimed him off waivers from the Jets in November.
According to agent David Canter (Twitter link), the Dolphins are also releasing cornerback Brice McCain, who spent one season with the team.
Neither Coples nor McCain had more than one year remaining on his contract with the team, and cutting both players will create more than $10MM in cap savings for the Dolphins for the 2016 season. Coples’ $7.751MM salary, the amount of the fifth-year option on his rookie contract, isn’t fully guaranteed, so Miami will wipe that entire amount from its books. As for McCain, the team will eat $1MM in dead money, but clears his $2.5MM salary from the cap.
Coples, selected 16th overall in the 2012 draft, had his best year as a pro in 2014, but even that amounted to just 35 tackles and 6.5 sacks, modest totals for a first-round pass rusher. When Todd Bowles took over as the Jets’ head coach a year ago, Coples was further marginalized in New York. Due to his poor fit in Bowles’ defense – and perhaps an alleged incident on a team flight, though Bowles denied that – the 25-year-old was waived by the club in the fall, and has now been cut for a second time in the last three months.
As for McCain, the veteran cornerback signed with the Dolphins last March after spending five seasons in Houston and one in Pittsburgh. McCain started 10 games and played 735 defensive snaps for the Dolphins in 2015, picking up an interception to go along with 39 tackles. However, it appears he didn’t show the team enough to be brought back for the second year of his contract.
Coples and McCain were both among the potential Dolphins cap casualties mentioned by PFR’s Connor Byrne when he previewed the club’s offseason last weekend.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AFC East Notes: McCoy, Forte, Dolphins, Jets
When police investigators turned over the nightclub assault case involving LeSean McCoy to Philadelphia’s District Attorney earlier this week, it sounded like arrest warrants would be issued by Thursday. That estimate was soon pushed back to the end of the week, and then to next week. Now, it looks like it could be next Wednesday before McCoy formally faces any charges.
McCoy’s attorney said today that the running back’s camp had been informed that no charges would be filed until at least next Wednesday, according to Albert Breer of the NFL Network (via Twitter). ESPN’s John Barr clarifies (via Twitter) that McCoy won’t have to turn himself in until Wednesday at the earliest, but it’s possible charges will be filed prior to then. Either way, the Bills running back figures to remain in limbo for at least a few more days as he waits to see what sort of charges will be filed against him for last weekend’s altercation.
Here are a few more updates from out of the AFC East:
- After word broke today that the Bears will not be re-signing running back Matt Forte, James Walker of ESPN.com made the case for why the Dolphins – led by former Bears OC Adam Gase – would be an ideal fit for Forte.
- Of course, Miami is far from the only potential landing spot for Forte. In a separate piece, ESPN.com’s NFL writers identify 10 more teams that could be fits for the veteran running back, including the Patriots and Jets.
- The linebacker position should be the top priority for the Dolphins‘ this offseason, and ought to be addressed by the team in both free agency and the draft, according to Walker.
- The Dolphins‘ cap situation may look dire at the moment, but there are plenty of ways the club can fix that this winter, according to Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald, who lists 10 moves Miami could make to create a huge chunk of cap room.
- Finding an outside pass rusher should be the Jets‘ focus in the draft this spring, writes Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News in his latest mailbag.