AFC Notes: Raiders, Titans, Ravens, Browns

While the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum Authority initially appeared poised to reject an agreement that would have extended the stay of MLB’s Athletics in the O.co Coliseum another 10 years, the two sides have reached a last-minute agreement, according to Carolyn Jones of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). After Athletics co-owner Lew Wolff suggested that MLB commissioner Bud Selig had given the franchise the go-ahead to “seek a temporary or permanent location outside the city of Oakland,” city and county officials immediately restarted negotiations and were motivated to work out a deal.

For the Raiders, that’s not great news, since the NFL team doesn’t want to share a stadium with Oakland’s baseball team for the long term, and with the A’s remaining at O.co, that leaves one less spot where the Raiders could build a new stadium. As we wait to see what effect the new deal could have on the Raiders, let’s check in on a few more items from around the AFC….

  • As ESPN.com’s team of beat writers lays out burning questions for each of the league’s 32 clubs, the theme in the AFC East is front office personnel and philosophies. Among the topics discussed: Whether the Bills have an offensive identity crisis; the relationship between the Jets‘ coach, GM, and owner; and a possible staff overhaul in Miami if the Dolphins miss the postseason again.
  • Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com explores what the Titans might do with the $25MM in cap space they’re currently carrying.
  • Within ESPN.com’s story on the AFC West, Jeff Legwold discusses whether the Broncos‘ have mortgaged their future by trying to win immediately, while Paul Gutierrez addresses how many games Dennis Allen will have to win in 2014 to keep his job as the Raiders‘ head coach.
  • ESPN.com’s Jamison Hensley wonders if the Ravens did enough this offseason to improve their offensive line.
  • Second-year offensive lineman Garrett Gilkey is a dark horse candidate to crack the Browns‘ starting lineup this year, says Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal.

Extension Candidate: Julius Thomas

The decision made yesterday by arbitrator Stephen Burbank to rule in favor of the Saints on Jimmy Graham‘s positional dispute wasn’t good news for Graham. However, it may not have been bad news for tight ends in general. Had Burbank decided to consider Graham a wide receiver, teams would have made a greater effort going forward not to split out their own tight ends, which would potentially limit the pass-catching numbers for those players, who would have a harder time exploiting certain matchups.Julius Thomas

Additionally, now that Graham is officially viewed as a tight end, he’s poised to set a new high watermark for salary at the position. The Saints are reportedly willing to make Graham the league’s highest-paid player at the position, surpassing Rob Gronkowski‘s $9MM annual value. The creation of a new top tier for salary at the position should bode well when other tight ends begin to negotiate new contracts, and will only help increase the figures for future franchise and transition tags.

All of this is to say that a player like Julius Thomas, whose contract is set to expire at the end of the 2014 season, shouldn’t be discouraged by the Graham verdict. A franchise tag at wide receiver likely won’t be in Thomas’ future, but the franchise tag for tight ends should be on the rise next year, and if Graham cracks $10MM per year on a long-term deal with the Saints, Thomas will have a stronger case to exceed $7MM on a pact of his own.

An extension for Thomas is indeed on Denver’s to-do list, with GM John Elway confirming to Mike Klis of the Denver Post last month that the Broncos have opened extension talks with their tight end. In Klis’ view, a $7MM per year average may be the target for former fourth-round pick, who turned 26 last week.

When considering Thomas’ value, there are a handful of factors to take into consideration. Coming into the 2013 season, Thomas had just one reception on his résumé for his first two years in the NFL, and had battled ankle troubles in 2012. However, he broke out in a big way in ’13, catching 65 balls for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns, despite ceding plenty of targets with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker.

Thomas is young, athletic, and a gifted pass-catcher — the fact that he played only one year of college ball at Portland State could actually be a positive for the Broncos, since it suggests he still has plenty of room to continue to develop and improve following his breakout season. The tight end recently told Ross Jones of Fox Sports that he anticipates the team finding new, creative ways to use him in 2014, as he becomes more comfortable and confident in the offense.

“I do think I’m still scratching the surface,” Thomas said. “I’ve had guys who have told me that playing football around year four and year five, it starts to click and then it all starts to make sense of what you’re doing. That’s typical of a normal guy who has been playing forever. I still think I have so far to go. I need to keep getting repetitions and keep getting comfortable with things.”

Assuming Denver also believes Thomas is “scratching the surface” of his full potential, it makes sense that the team would attempt to lock him up before the upcoming season, before his value increases even further. Still, when it comes to Thomas’ next contract, the club could have some of the same concerns that exist in negotiations with wideout Demaryius Thomas. Peyton Manning‘s presence in Denver has helped pad stats for all the team’s pass-catchers, and the presence of Welker, free agent signee Emmanuel Sanders, and rookie Cody Latimer will ensure that no one receiver is necessarily indispensable to the team’s passing attack. Additionally, with Manning unlikely to continue his career for more than another two or three years, it’s worth considering who will be throwing the balls caught by the pair of Thomases if Denver signs both players to lucrative long-term deals.

If the Broncos think Thomas is the real deal though, there’s no reason not to attempt to secure him on a multiyear contract this summer. A deal like the one agreed upon between Dennis Pitta and the Ravens this offseason could make some sense — Pitta only received an average annual value of $6.4MM over five years, but $16MM of that $32MM deal is fully guaranteed. I’d guess the Broncos are more likely to push for a different sort of structure, one with a higher annual salary and a more modest guarantee. In that scenario, a five-year deal for Thomas could fall in the $35-40MM range, but with a guarantee in the neighborhood of $10-13MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AFC Links: Pitta, Bills, Ward, Titans

Tight end Dennis Pitta reached a five-year contract agreement with the Ravens back in March, but had been considering filing a grievance if the team franchised him, says Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun. Like Jimmy Graham, Pitta spent most of his snaps last season playing in the slot or split out wide, rather than on the offensive line. Based on today’s ruling, which went against Graham, Pitta was likely fortunate to avoid such a dispute, since he lined up in the slot for the majority of his snaps, and arbitrator Stephen Burbank determined that Graham was playing tight end in instances when he lined up within four yards of offensive linemen.

Here’s more from around the AFC:

  • Terry and Kim Pegula have hired Steve Greenberg, managing director of elite investment bank Allen & Company, to represent them as they pursue a potential purchase of the Bills, reports Tim Graham of the Buffalo News. The current Buffalo Sabres owners are among a number of likely bidders with interest in buying the franchise.
  • Having moved to Cleveland to Denver in the offseason, new Broncos safety T.J. Ward has noticed a difference between the two teams, as he tells David DeChant of DenverBroncos.com. “Nothing against Cleveland but this is a winning culture,” Ward said. Of his goals this season, the ex-Brown added: “We’re just expecting to win. That’s it. That’s the only expectation.”
  • After spending the first six years of his NFL career in Denver, linebacker Wesley Woodyard joined the Titans on a four-year contract this offseason, and he likes what he sees in Tennessee so far, writes Jim Wyatt of the Tennesseean.
  • Longtime Steelers linebacker Joey Porter will work this season in Pittsburgh as a defensive assistant, and former teammate Larry Foote tells ESPN.com’s Scott Brown that he fully expects Porter to become an NFL head coach eventually.

Offseason In Review: Denver Broncos

Notable signings:

Notable losses:

Trades:

  • Acquired a second-round pick (No. 56) and a seventh-round pick (No. 242) from the 49ers in exchange for a second-round pick (No. 63), a fifth-round pick (No. 171), and a 2015 fourth-round pick.

Draft picks:

  • Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State (1.31): Signed
  • Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana (2.56): Signed
  • Michael Schofield, OT, Michigan (3.95): Signed
  • Lamin Barrow, LB, LSU (5.156): Signed
  • Matt Paradis, C, Boise State (6.207): Signed
  • Corey Nelson, LB, Oklahoma (7.242): Signed

Other:

After acquiring living legend Peyton Manning two years ago, the Broncos probably thought they would have another Lombardi Trophy in their collection by now. But after being upset by Baltimore in a double-overtime thriller in the 2012 playoffs, Denver was blindsided by Seattle’s suffocating defense one year later in Super Bowl XLVIII. In an attempt to get his team over the hump, GM John Elway was very aggressive in free agency, landing a number of marquee pieces to ensure that the Broncos get another crack at the title.

DeMarcus Ware

On offense, Elway made the difficult decision to let wide receiver Eric Decker walk in free agency. Decker had put up over 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns in each of the past two seasons, but the Broncos knew they would be unable to meet Decker’s open-market price (especially since they are also mulling extensions to dynamic receiving threats Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas). The team did sign former Steeler’s wideout Emmanuel Sanders, who offers a different skillset than Decker and whose speed and elusiveness, combined with Manning’s accuracy, could create nightmarish problems over the middle of the field.

Along the offensive line, Denver added veteran center Will Montgomery and will reshuffle the unit with the return of Ryan Clady from injury and the departure of left guard Zane Beadles. Clady will resume his post at left tackle, so Chris Clark–who replaced Clady at that spot last season–will move over to right tackle. Orlando Franklin, last year’s right tackle, gets bumped inside to left guard to replace Beadles. The mix-up might have created a bit of confusion and disappointment for Franklin, but it should not negatively impact what was a tremendous offensive line in 2013. The group excelled in pass protection, giving up just 20 sacks–though Manning’s quick trigger surely played a significant part in that–and they were effective in run blocking as well.

Speaking of the running game, the Broncos let running back Knowshon Moreno leave in free agency–he ultimately signed a modest deal with the Dolphins–and have not attempted to replace him with a veteran. Instead, they seem comfortable riding their stable of young backs, none of whom have started a game in the NFL. But all the Broncos really need from their run game is the ability to pick up first downs off of short yardage and touchdowns off of goal-to-go situations. Talented but unproven runners like Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman, and C.J. Anderson should be able to carry the load.

The defensive side of the ball is where the Broncos made the biggest splashes in free agency. According to Football Outsiders’ metrics, Denver had a middle of the pack defense in 2013, ranking 9th against the run–as measured by Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)–but 21st against the pass and 15th overall. Those evaluations were supported by Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), which ranked the Broncos’ defense second-best in the league against the run but just 17th in coverage and 14th in pass rushing.

Enter DeMarcus Ware. Released by the Cowboys, the perennial All-Pro found a home in the Mile High City, where he and Von Miller will create a formidable pass rush duo that should boost the team’s sack total (the Broncos racked up 41 sacks in 2013, tied for 13th-most in the league). In the secondary, although Denver lost Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to the Giants, they replaced him with Aqib Talib, who resurrected his career with back-to-back solid seasons in New England. Although Pro Football Focus (subscription required) suggests this is something of a downgrade–Talib was ranked 57th out of 110 qualified corners, whereas Rodgers-Cromartie was ranked 6th-best–it would be surprising if Talib did not perform at least as well as the man affectionately known as DRC. This is not to mention, of course, the addition of first-round selection Bradley Roby, a talented cornerback in his own right.

The Broncos also added safety T.J. Ward to boost the back end of the defense. Ward thrives against both the run and the pass, and he adds some much-needed athleticism to a defense that said goodbye to aging veterans Mike Adams, Champ Bailey, and Quentin Jammer.

Manning, who is an aging veteran himself, shows no signs of slowing down and said that he plans to play out his current contract, which runs through the 2016 season (when Manning will be 40). Because of Manning’s age and the age of other key players–Ware and Wes Welker, for instance–there is a belief that Denver’s window to win it all is fairly small. However, as shown above, the Broncos are also getting younger and more athletic in some areas, and should they reach extensions with Demaryius and Julius Thomas, they will have secured a key part of their offensive future.

In any event, barring an injury to Manning, this team is not going anywhere in the next several years. They should take home the AFC West title again this season, and, although it is rare for such things to happen in the NFL, we may see a Super Bowl XLVIII rematch in Super Bowl XLIX. The Broncos are certainly favorites to represent the AFC in the big game again, and if they do, their offseason additions may just be enough to bring a third title to Denver.

Spotrac and Over The Cap were used in the creation of this post.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Poll: Who Will Win The AFC West?

Despite the fact that the Broncos were the AFC’s top seed in 2013, finishing with a 13-3 record, the AFC West race was actually the tightest of the four in the conference. The Chiefs and Chargers both joined Denver as playoff teams out of the West, in what was arguably the NFL’s second-best division behind the NFC West.

The Broncos head into the 2014 season as the favorites to repeat as division champs, and could be even stronger on the defensive side of the ball than they were a year ago. Aqib Talib replaces departed cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in a secondary that also added playmaking safety T.J. Ward. Meanwhile, DeMarcus Ware will join Von Miller to lead one of the league’s more dangerous pass rushes. Denver lost some key contributors, including wideout Eric Decker and guard Zane Beadles, but the Broncos are still deep and talented enough to go as far as Peyton Manning can lead them. Coming off a record-setting MVP season, Manning should be in line for another big year assuming he stays healthy, which is no given at age 38.

While Denver may be the frontrunner in the AFC West, the Chiefs and Chargers shouldn’t be overlooked. Neither club made the sort of big splashes that the Broncos did in the offseason, and Kansas City’s offensive line exodus is a cause for concern, with Branden Albert, Geoff Schwartz, and Jon Asamoah all moving on in free agency. However, these are still talented clubs that will be looking to return to the postseason in 2014. San Diego, in particular, could be a dark horse to make some noise in the regular season and the playoffs, having added cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett to a secondary that struggled a year ago.

As for the Raiders, they were an afterthought at 4-12 in 2013, and will be a long shot in the West again in 2014 — betting site Bovada.lv gives Oakland 18:1 odds at winning the division. But Matt Schaub could provide some stability at the quarterback position if he benefits from a change of scenery in Oakland. First-round linebacker Khalil Mack should have an immediate impact. And the Raiders brought in a number of interesting veterans in free agency, including Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, James Jones, Austin Howard, and Maurice Jones-Drew. A lot would have to break right for the Raiders to have a chance at the division title, but it’s not a totally inconceivable scenario.

What do you think? Which team will win the AFC West in 2014?

Which team will win the AFC West?

  • Denver Broncos 55% (262)
  • San Diego Chargers 24% (115)
  • Kansas City Chiefs 12% (58)
  • Oakland Raiders 9% (44)

Total votes: 479

Previously:
Who will win the AFC North?

Extra Points: Greco, Jolly, Chargers, Jackson

In his latest mailbag, ESPN.com’s John Clayton begins by examining the prolific turnover at the cornerback position this offseason. Teams are seemingly following the Seahawks’ model in the secondary, searching for taller defensive backs who can shut down the league’s No. 1 receivers, who themselves are growing eve- larger in stature. Clayton points to the Chiefs, Patriots, and Broncos as teams who have prioritized length at corner by releasing the 5’10” Brandon Flowers, signing Brandon Browner, and adding Aqib Talib, respectively.

More assorted notes from the NFL:

  • John Greco, who signed a four-year extension with the Browns last summer, is slated to be Cleveland’s starting right guard, but he knows that competition is inevitable, writes George M. Thomas of the Akron Beacon Journal. “There’s always someone at your footsteps banging on the door so you know at any time you can be easily replaced if there’s a mistake,” said Greco. “It just makes you that much more focused to work harder to keep your spot.” The 29-year-old’s contract makes it easy for the Browns release him if he does falter, as it contains no more guaranteed money.
  • We learned earlier today that Packers defensive lineman Johnny Jolly has been medically cleared, but as Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel notes, Jolly must now play the waiting game, hoping that a team will show interest in him. Green Bay, specifically, already re-signed B.J. Raji, and are counting on pass-rush help from Datone Jones, Josh Boyd, and third-rounder Khyri Thorton, so they might not need any help up front.
  • The Chargers’ defense was among the league’s worst units in 2013; they ranked dead last in terms of defensive DVOA (per Football Outsiders). As such, San Diego defensive coordinator John Pagano is only penciling in three definite starters — Eric Weddle, Donald Butler, and Corey Liuget, while the rest of the spots are up for grabs, writes Eric D. Williams of ESPN.com. Sean Lissemore will be the nominal starter at nose tackle, adds Pagano, but the Chargers will only be in their base defense 30-35% of snaps.
  • Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com profiles Broncos defensive lineman Malik Jackson, a fifth-round pick in 2012 who performed very well last season in his first real opportunity at playing time.

Poll: What Will Happen To Demaryius Thomas?

Broncos’ wide receiver Demaryius Thomas‘ contract is set to expire after the 2014-2015 season. The reigning All-Pro wideout and former first round pick is considered to be among the league’s elite receiving talents. As our own Luke Adams described in this very thorough post, recent star wide receiver contracts would point to a potential five-year deal for Thomas, with Greg Jennings ($45MM), Vincent Jackson, ($55MM), Dwayne Bowe($56MM), Mike Wallace ($60MM), and Percy Harvin ($64.25MM) all signing recent contracts for five years. 

Thomas’ contract situation received considerable press a few weeks ago when a story broke that the Broncos had offered the former Georgia Tech standout a five-year deal. Although those alleged contract talks quickly cooled off, there is still substantial speculation regarding how the Broncos will handle the two-time Pro Bowler. It seems that Thomas’ contract situation can go one of several ways: he can re-sign with the Broncos at some point before, during, or after the 2014-2015 Season, or, should the Broncos’ salary cap become too congested, he could test the free agent market after next season. With Wes Welker, Julius Thomas, and Von Miller‘s contracts all set to expire sometime before the 2016-2017 Season, it appears that the Broncos will have some difficult personnel decisions to make in the coming two years.

What do you think will happen to Demaryius Thomas? Will he remain a Bronco? If so, when will he re-sign? If you think he will sign elsewhere, please feel free to elaborate your thought process in the comment section.

How Will Demaryius Thomas' Contract Situation Be Handled?

  • Re-sign with Broncos before start of 2014-2015 Season 30% (69)
  • Sign with another team after 2014-2015 Season 28% (65)
  • Re-sign with Broncos after 2014-2015 Season 28% (64)
  • Re-sign with Broncos during 2014-2015 Season 14% (31)

Total votes: 229

Sunday Roundup: Thomas, Davis, Momah

It’s been a surprisingly exciting morning in the NFL, with the false report from the Dallas Police Department that Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib was arrested early this morning dominating the Twitterverse. Now that things have quieted down and Talib has been absolved–his brother, Yaqub, was the person taken into custody–let’s have a look at some links from around the league.

  • Mike Kiszla of The Denver Post writes that the Broncos cannot afford to overpay star wideout Demaryius Thomas. He adds that, although Thomas is set to become a free agent after this season, the franchise tag is a legitimate option if an extension cannot be worked out (check out our Luke Adams’ piece on what a deal for Thomas might look like). Kiszla believes that giving Thomas more than $30MM in easily-obtained guarantees is too much for a receiver who greatly benefits from being in the same huddle as Peyton Manning.
  • The Panthers exercised linebacker Thomas Davis‘ 2014 and 2015 options in February after his stellar 2013 campaign, but if they had not done so, Davis would have retired, according to Jonathan Jones of The Charlotte Observer. Davis said, “If I’m going to play football and represent an organization, it’s going to be with the team that stuck beside me and never gave up on me.
  • Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2014/06/28/5011735/carolina-panthers-lb-thomas-davis.html#.U7BK5bFlw3k#storylink=cpy.

    Free agent defensive tackle Johnny Jolly, who played for the Packers last season, has gained medical clearance after undergoing neck surgery in January, writes Aaron Wilson of The National Football Post. As we learned several weeks ago, the Packers remain open to Jolly’s return.

  • The Titans‘ top three wide receivers–Nate Washington, Kendall Wright, and Justin Hunter–are set. But as Lauren Moore of The Tennessean writes, second-year man Michael Preston, who has been dubbed a “jack-of-all-trades” by wide receivers coach Shawn Jefferson, hopes to seize the fourth receiver role from the likes of veteran free agent acquisitions Brian Robiskie, Derek Hagan, and Dorin Dickerson, as well as a few 2013 and 2014 undrafted free agents.
  • Mary Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that, although the Browns would love to extend tight end Jordan Cameron, Cameron’s agent, Tom Condon, will drive a hard bargain. She adds that wide receiver Josh Gordon must have some “compelling arguments” given that there has yet to be an announcement regarding his suspension (although an appeal hearing has not been set).
  • Ryan O’Halloran of The Florida Times-Union writes that the Jaguars will need to grab a standout pass rusher in the 2015 draft, and he lists some potential candidates for Jags fans to keep an eye on this season.
  • Tim McManus of PhillyMag.com writes that Ifeanyi Momah, the physically gifted wide receiver whom the Eagles released last season during final cutdowns, is back with Philadelphia this year and stands a real chance at making the roster.

 

Aqib Talib Falsely Accused Of Public Intoxication

10:52am: It’s official. Aqib Talib’s brother, Yaqub, was arrested, not Aqib himself. Major Geron, who initially tweeted the arrest, has corrected his mistake and issued an apology (via Twitter). And the city of Denver heaves a collective sigh of relief.

10:41am: The Dallas Police Department has yet to amend its statement that Yaqub Talib, and not Aqib Talib, is the individual currently held at the city’s processing center, tweets Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports. According to a rather confident tweet from Pro Football Talk, Dallas PD does not have Aqib in custody. One confusing factor in all of this is that Synn, the nightclub where the alleged incident took place, was said to be hosting an “Official NFL Camp After Party” last night, according to Robert Wilonsky of The Dallas Morning News. Several other NFL players were reportedly in attendance. It could be that the Talib brothers were there together, but that is just speculation at this point. As of right now, all signs indicate that the Dallas PD made a (rather egregious) mistake. Stay tuned.

10:18am: Perhaps what looked to be a major story is instead a non-story. According to Pro Football Talk, Talib’s agent, Todd France, says that Talib’s brother, Yaqub Talib, was the individual arrested in Dallas this morning (Twitter link).

10:06am: New Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib was arrested at a Dallas night club at approximately 1:45 this morning, tweets Major Max Geron of the Dallas Police Department. Geron adds that Talib was arrested for public intoxication as he was throwing bottles, causing a disturbance and creating a danger to himself and others.

NFL Teams With Open Roster Spots

For many teams around the NFL, the 90 players on the roster when last week’s minicamps ended are the same 90 players the club hopes to carry into training camp next month. We should expect to see some minor roster shuffling over the next few weeks, but for the most part, teams have a pretty good idea of which players will be participating in camp and battling for spots on the regular-season roster a few weeks from now.

Still, not all 32 teams around the league have full 90-man rosters at this point. In a couple instances, recent unanticipated retirements have created roster openings, whereas other clubs may simply be keeping their options open and weighing multiple possibilities as training camp nears. In any case, by our count, there are seven NFL teams that currently have open slots on their 90-man rosters. Here’s the breakdown:

  • Atlanta Falcons (2): Since maxing out the 90-man roster with draft picks and rookie free agents, the Falcons have made three cuts and moved Sean Weatherspoon to injured reserve following his season-ending Achilles injury. During that same span, they’ve only signed two players, so there should be two open spots on the roster at the moment.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2): The Bucs signed a pair of tryout players to contracts last week, adding David Gettis and Ronald Talley, but also cut four players. Over the weekend, Scott Smith of Buccaneers.com explored how the team might fill the two openings on its roster.
  • Cincinnati Bengals (1): Running back Jeff Scott was waived by the Bengals last week, and the club has yet to sign a replacement.
  • Cleveland Browns (1): Like the Bengals, the Browns made a cut a week ago (Earl Bennett) and haven’t yet filled his spot on the roster.
  • Denver Broncos (1): Denver hasn’t made a roster addition since waiving Ramon Harewood last month, so the team should have one spot available.
  • Green Bay Packers (1): A neck injury forced Johnathan Franklin into early retirement and forced the Packers to waive him with an injured player designation, creating an empty spot on the 90-man roster.
  • San Francisco 49ers (1): Eric Wright‘s retirement announcement created an opening on the Niners’ roster last Tuesday.
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