Extension Candidate: Demaryius Thomas
Earlier this offseason, the Broncos watched as a receiver who averaged 86 receptions, 1,176 yards, and 12 touchdowns during his last two seasons in Denver departed in free agency, signing a five-year deal with the Jets. Although the Broncos reportedly had some interest in re-signing Eric Decker, the team didn’t appear to go to great lengths to retain him, in part because Denver still has another wideout, Demaryius Thomas, who is a year away from free agency himself and matched or exceeded Decker’s numbers in those two seasons.
After hauling in just 54 passes during his first two NFL seasons, Thomas broke out when Peyton Manning arrived in Denver, averaging 93 catches, 1,432 yards, and 12 TDs in 2012 and 2013. In addition to posting massive numbers in the traditional receiving categories, Thomas also performed extremely well according to advanced stats. Football Outsiders ranked him third in 2012 and first in 2013 in terms of DYAR, while Pro Football Focus’ grades had him as the league’s second-best wideout in 2012 and fifth-best in 2013 (subscription required).
When Decker hit free agency, his true value was subject to increased scrutiny. Many observers wondered how much of Decker’s production was tied to the fact that he was catching passes from Manning and benefiting from defenses focusing on Thomas, Wes Welker, and the Broncos’ other weapons. It’s fair to assume that Thomas will face the same questions, and it’s also reasonable to conclude that perhaps he wouldn’t be posting the same sort of numbers in an offense with a mediocre quarterback throwing him the ball, into more frequent double or triple coverage.
Still, Thomas’ combination of size, speed, and hands make him one of the league’s better wideouts no matter whose passes he’s catching and who’s covering him, and his relative youth (26) means he should have plenty more prime years on the way. So it makes sense that the Broncos have initiated extension talks with the former 22nd overall pick, perhaps even offering him a new five-year contract already, though there are conflicting reports on whether an official proposal is actually on the table.
A look at the list of top wide receiver contracts at OverTheCap.com shows that plenty of five-year deals have been signed in recent years — Greg Jennings ($45MM), Vincent Jackson ($55MM), Dwayne Bowe ($56MM), Mike Wallace ($60MM), and Percy Harvin ($64.25MM) are just a few of the players whose current contracts span five years and have base values that range from between $9-13MM annually. In his talks with the Broncos, it makes sense that Thomas and his reps would push to exceed the figures for players like Wallace and Harvin, whose resumés weren’t quite as impressive as the Denver receiver’s is.
Only two receivers have a larger per-year value on their current contracts than Harvin, with Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald in a stratosphere all on their own, averaging more than $16MM per season. Both players are also on seven-year deals, rather than five-year pacts. Johnson signed his latest contract after a season in which he grabbed 16 touchdowns and nearly racked up 1,700 receiving yards, while Fitzgerald’s extension came on the heels of four straight Pro Bowl seasons in which he never caught less than 90 balls, even when Derek Anderson and John Skelton were the ones throwing those balls.
Based on his accomplishments so far, Thomas doesn’t appear qualified to join Johnson and Fitzgerald in that $16MM+ range, but it seems clear he should surpass Harvin and potentially become the third-highest-paid receiver in the NFL, depending on what happens with Dez Bryant and 2015’s other free agents. I’d expect Denver to be exploring a deal in the range of $65MM for five new years, with $20MM+ in guaranteed money.
Whether that sort of commitment appeals to Thomas is the big question. Another huge year could move him a step closer to Megatron/Fitzgerald territory, perhaps warranting a deal in the neighborhood of $14-15MM annually. However, the former Georgia Tech standout might be wise not to overplay his hand. Not reaching an agreement with the Broncos this year means the team could use its franchise tag on him next year, postponing his free agency until 2016. By that point, there’s a decent chance Manning will no longer be quarterbacking in Denver, which may make the Broncos reluctant to spend huge money on a receiver if they’re not confident about a new signal-caller getting him the ball. Thomas would still be in line for a big multiyear deal on the open market, but the best way to maximize his payday could be to ink that next contract when his numbers are still getting that Manning bump — that means doing it sooner rather than later.
As such, I expect we’ll see Thomas and the Broncos reach a long-term agreement before or during training camp. If it’s a five-year deal, something in the range of $65-70MM seems about right to me. Whether the two sides agree with that assessment remains to be seen.
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Extension Candidate: Marcus Gilbert
We learned yesterday that Drew Rosenhaus, the agent for Steelers’ right tackle Marcus Gilbert, had approached the club about a possible long-term deal for Gilbert. Although those talks are in the preliminary stages at this point, it may behoove the Steelers, who have struggled to get consistent production from their offensive line in recent years, to act before Gilbert hits the open market at the end of this season.
To be certain, Gilbert is not an elite talent. Although we caution that Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics are not the be-all and end-all of player evaluation, those metrics combined with the “eye test” make for a fairly valuable analytical tool, and in this instance, the PFF grades (subscription required) accurately suggest that Gilbert is a solid pass blocker but struggles with run blocking. As compared to other offensive tackles, Gilbert is decidedly average, ranking 36th out of 76 qualified tackles in 2011, his rookie season, and 50th out of 76 in 2013 (he played only five games in 2012 after suffering an ankle injury in Week 6 of that season).
Nonetheless, even average lineman fared pretty well in free agency this year. As we noted yesterday, right tackles Austin Howard, Breno Giacomini, and Michael Oher all received four- or five-year deals worth between $4MM and $6MM per season. Only one of those players–Giacomini–performed better than Gilbert in 2013, according to PFF, and none of them were better in 2011. As such, Gilbert could reasonably demand at least as much, and will certainly get it should he hit free agency.
Gilbert, taken in the second round of the 2011 draft, is part of Pittsburgh’s recent movement to provide better protection to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and to revive their once-dominant running game. He is one of four offensive linemen taken in the first or second round in the past five years, along with tackle Mike Adams, guard David DeCastro, and recently-extended center Maurkice Pouncey. Although DeCastro and Pouncey have played well, Adams has struggled in his two seasons in the league, and the Steelers would like to be confident in at least one of their bookends in the long term.
Although he has stated that he loves playing in Pittsburgh and would not want to go elsewhere, the contracts that his peers received this offseason–along with the fact that he is represented by Rosenhaus–suggest that Gilbert will not be taking a hometown discount. However, solid tackles are hard to find, and the Steelers have gone through enough turmoil on their line in recent seasons to let a chance at real stability walk away (indeed, the chance to a keep core group of players in a given unit intact is an oft-overlooked but critical component of these discussions). It may be difficult to keep Gilbert on board, given that Roethlisberger, Jason Worilds, and Cortez Allen are also extension candidates, but Pittsburgh may have no other choice.
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Extension Candidate: Kyle Rudolph
New Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner is known as something of a “tight end whisperer” — his ability to induce production out of the position, with players like Antonio Gates and Jordan Cameron, is virtually unparallelled in the NFL. His newest protégé is Kyle Rudolph, who is entering not only his fourth season in the league but the final year of his rookie contract, which is set to pay him a base salary of nearly $1MM. The Vikings, then, in something of a buy-low opportunity, may look to extend the 24-year-old before 2014, when his talents, combined with Turner’s instruction, could lead to a monster season, allowing Rudolph to price himself out of Minnesota’s range.
Rudolph, a 2011 second-round pick, has accrued decidedly mediocre statistics over the course of his career — he averaged 39 receptions for 371 yards and six to
uchdowns over his first two seasons; he nearly matched those numbers in 2013, however, despite starting only eight games due to a fractured foot. Advanced metrics paint a more favorable picture of Rudolph, as he graded as a top-15 tight end in both 2011 and 2012, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). DYAR, a Football Outsiders statistic that measures only receiving ability (omitting blocking) wasn’t quite as impressed — over the past three seasons, Rudolph ranked 43rd, 28th, and 27th. Of course, the Vikings haven’t had the most capable quarterbacks delivering the ball over that span, as Rudolph caught passes from the likes of Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, and a near-retirement Donovan McNabb.
For his part, Rudolph has expressed his desire to remain with the Vikings. “…[M]y financial situation is completely in their hands right now,” Rudolph told Chris Tomasson of the Pioneer Press. “I’ve got one year left on my deal here and I’m extremely excited for the changes that have been made around here (under first-year coach Mike Zimmer)…All I can worry about is going out and being successful. The contract will take care of itself. … I’d be more than happy to stay here for a long time.” However, as of mid-April, the Vikings had not approached him about an extension, according to Matt Vensel of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.
Tight end contracts can be more difficult to evaluate than other positions because of the vast differences between players’ usage and roles. Having said that, it’s probably safe to disregard any potential deal regarding Jimmy Graham, as well as the 2012 extension signed by Rob Gronkowski, as the two are considered to be in completely different stratosphere. Also complicating matters is Rudolph’s youth — at 24, he is far younger than were most tight ends who received extensions.
Martellus Bennett of the Bears and Dennis Pitta of the Ravens offer the two best options when looking for comparable players and a potential contract. Bennett, who was 25 when he signed as a free agent with Chicago, had put up analogous numbers to Rudolph, but was a free agent — he received $20.4MM over five years, with $5.215MM in guarantees. Pitta has better statistics to Rudolph, but, like the Viking, was coming off an injury. He re-signed with Baltimore in late February, so while the deal was nominally an extension, he was effectively a free agent, as free agency began less than two weeks later. Pitta’s contract, signed when he was four years older than Rudolph, was worth $32MM over five years, $16MM of which was guaranteed.
I would set Bennett’s contract as the floor, and Pitta’s deal the ceiling, when discussing a Rudolph extension. A deal worth four to five years, with an AAV of $5.5MM, and guarantees in the $10-12MM range wouldn’t be out of the question. However, the Vikings need to factor in the risk of a huge 2014 season by Rudolph into their valuation; if he succeeds on the level of other Turner-coached tight ends, Rudolph could angle for an even larger contract. So perhaps the team, in the interest of getting a deal done now, offers a tad more in either AAV or guarantees in order to stave off a potential free agent negotiation.
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Extension Candidate: Tyron Smith
Cowboys wideout Dez Bryant is entering the final year of his rookie deal and should be in line for a big-money, long-term extension in the coming months. However, while Bryant may be the shorter-term priority for Dallas due to his expiring contract, offensive tackle Tyron Smith may ultimately be the more crucial piece for the Cowboys to lock up.
Because Smith was a first-round pick in 2011, the Cowboys were able to exercise their fifth-year team option to keep him under contract through 2015, but the clock is still ticking for the club to work out an agreement that will keep the Pro Bowler in Dallas for several years beyond that. Although we’ll have to wait and see whether the Cowboys choose to address the situation this year, it’s worth examining what kind of deal it would take to keep Smith in the fold.
Smith, 2011’s ninth overall pick, had his work on the outside of the Cowboys’ line recognized with a Pro Bowl nod last season for the first time, and his Pro Football Focus grades suggest he was worthy of that spot, with his performance placing him among the top five tackles in the NFL (subscription required).
It was the second time in three NFL seasons that PFF graded Smith as a top-five player at the position, though in his rookie season that ranking came at right tackle, rather than left. During his first year on the left side in 2012, Smith’s grades slipped a little, particularly as a pass-blocker, but his play in 2013, combined with his age (23) suggest we should expect to see the USC product continue to develop into one of the league’s elite offensive linemen.
If we’re assuming Smith should perform like one of the NFL’s best tackles, it stands to reason that he should be paid like one as well. So it makes sense to compare his potential contract to the ones signed by players like Joe Thomas, Ryan Clady, Branden Albert, and Trent Williams. As Over the Cap’s data shows, the average annual salaries for those tackles range from $9.4MM to $11.5MM, with their overall guarantees coming in between $15MM and $28.5MM.
By the time he negotiates an extension, Smith could be in position to argue he deserves to be paid more than any other left tackle in the NFL. After all, the salary cap is on the rise — by the time Smith’s new deal starts in 2016, teams will have significantly more cap space to work with than they did when many of those previous pacts were signed. Additionally, Smith will be in his prime years during his next deal. When the 2016 season gets underway, he’ll still be just 25 years old, so even if the Cowboys lock him up for several years past that, the club shouldn’t have to anticipate a drop in production over the course of the contract.
So what sort of figures would be fair for Smith? A per-year salary of $12MM+ seems within reach, and a full guarantee that significantly exceeds $20MM also makes sense. The length of the deal figures to depend on whether Smith wants another chance to hit free agency by age 30, or if he wants to commit to the Cowboys for most of his playing career. If it’s the latter, Thomas’ $80.5MM contract with the Browns might provide a reasonable point of comparison. Thomas established new high water marks for tackles with an $11.5MM annual salary and $28.5MM in guaranteed money on his seven-year deal. Assuming Smith continues to cement his place as one of the NFL’s most effective linemen in 2014, it wouldn’t be a shock if he surpasses Thomas and establishes new baselines for tackles with his next contract.
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Extension Candidate: Maurkice Pouncey
Few injuries during the 2013 season were more devastating to a team than Maurkice Pouncey‘s torn ACL and MCL. The anchor in the middle of the Steelers’ offensive line went down with the knee injury in the first week of the regular season, leaving a huge hole to fill at center and depriving him of an opportunity to open his NFL career with four straight Pro Bowl seasons.
However, Pouncey appears healthy and ready to go for the 2014 season, the last year of his rookie contract. A pair of Steelers beat writers – Ed Bouchette of the Post-Gazette and Alan Robinson of the Tribune-Review – wrote this week that the team figures to make every effort to lock its center up to a new deal before the season gets underway, and that Pouncey represents the Steeler most likely to sign an extension this summer. So it’s worth examining exactly what sort of contract the two sides may negotiate.
Prior to that 2013 season lost to injury, Pouncey had been the Steelers’ starter in the middle of the line since entering the league as the 18th overall pick in 2010. While his three Pro Bowl berths – and a 2011 All-Pro nod – would suggest that he became one of the NFL’s elite centers immediately upon entering the league, Pouncey’s Pro Football Focus grades (subscription required) tell a different story. According to PFF, the Florida product was the 21st-best player at his position in 2010, 19th in 2011, and 12th in 2012.
Pro Football Focus’ grades are hardly the be-all, end-all of player evaluation, particularly at a position where there are so few traditional statistics to evaluate a player’s production. Even so, PFF’s numbers exhibit that at least one metric considers Pouncey to be a player steadily improving toward the ranks of the elite, but one who may not quite be there yet. By comparison, Alex Mack of the Browns, who entered the league one year before Pouncey, has never ranked outside PFF’s top 10 centers, and maxed out at fourth overall in 2013.
Mack makes for a good point of comparison, since he hit free agency this offseason and became the NFL’s highest-paid center by annual average value. The five-year, $42MM offer sheet Mack signed with the Jaguars – which was subsequently matched by Cleveland – works out to $8.4MM per year, slightly edging the annual salaries of other elite centers like Carolina’s Ryan Kalil and Nick Mangold of the Jets. At the time of Mack’s signing, Bouchette suggested that Pouncey could make a case that he should land a deal even larger than that, making him the new highest-paid center in the league.
Still, I’d be a little surprised if Pouncey ultimately inked an extension that exceeded Mack’s $8.4MM per year, Kalil’s $19MM in guaranteed money, or Mangold’s $54.075MM total value. There’s certainly no question that Pouncey deserves to be in the conversation with those players, given all that he’s accomplished early in his career, plus the fact that he’s only entering his age-25 season. But he’s coming off a serious injury, and even before that injury, the data suggested he wasn’t quite playing at the elite level of some of his fellow centers, in spite of the Pro Bowl nods.
While Pouncey should be in line for a very nice payday, I expect him and the Steelers to agree to a price just below where Mack landed. Something in the neighborhood of five years and $40MM, with $15MM+ in guaranteed money, seems fair to me. We’ll have to see if Pouncey and the Steelers agree — if they don’t, and Pittsburgh remains motivated to get a deal done, that price could creep a little higher.
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Extension Candidate: Andy Dalton
When the Bengals passed on Teddy Bridgewater with the No. 24 pick in last month’s draft, and subsequently waited until the fifth round before drafting a signal-caller (Alabama’s A.J. McCarron), they seemed to send a strong message: Andy Dalton is Cincinnati’s quarterback for the foreseeable future.
Dalton, selected in the second round of the 2011 draft, has achieved immediate success in the Queen City, leading the Bengals to a 30-18 record and three playoff appearances (0-3 record) during his first three seasons in the league, averaging nearly 3,800 yards passing, 27 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in that span. Advanced metrics rate Dalton as average — Football Outsiders ranked Dalton as the 17th-best QB by DYAR in 2014, while Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded him as 16th-best. The PFF rating, however, illustrates Dalton’s maddening inconsistency — in 2014, he finished three weeks with a +5.0 or better grade, while five other weeks saw him earn a -3.0 or worse mark.
The Bengals, for their part, have a recent history of being willing to pay for performance, as evidenced by extensions for Andrew Whitworth, Carlos Dunlap, and Leon Hall. In March, team owner Mike Brown spoke about Dalton’s situation, saying “If it turns out it can’t be made to work we will do something elsewhere. I don’t think we plan to go another year the way we did this year.” Whether that means Cincinnati would be willing to slap the franchise tag on Dalton in 2015 is unclear, but Brown is well aware that the free agent market for quarterbacks is more often than not barren, meaning Dalton is the likely the team’s best, and perhaps only, answer at the position.
Cincinnati also has other premier players whom they would like to like to retain — receiver A.J. Green, whose 2015 option was exercised, and linebacker Vontaze Burfict, with whom the Bengals are discussing an extension. While the team currently has over $24MM in cap space, new contracts for Green, Burfict, and Dalton could stretch the Bengals’ budget.
In looking for a precedent, the Bengals could look at recent extensions given to fellow quarterbacks Tony Romo and Jay Cutler. Romo signed a seven-year, $108MM deal with the Cowboys in March 2013, which contained $55MM guaranteed. While Romo has outperformed Dalton since the latter entered the league in 2011, he is eight years older than the Bengals QB. Cutler agreed to a seven-year, $126.7MM contract in January 2014, with $54MM in guarantees. Cutler and Dalton have comparable statistics, though Dalton has been healthier and is five years younger.
More potential quarterback extensions are seemingly on the horizon, each of which could affect Dalton’s value. Alex Smith is reportedly asking for $18MM per season, Colin Kaepernick could aim for a $20MM AAV, and a Cam Newton contract could surpass each of those potential deals.
With the Bengals taking a pass on adding legitimate competition for Dalton, an extension seems to be the likeliest of outcomes. While the Bengals probably aren’t willing to give Dalton a $20MM AAV, I could see them examining Dalton’s regular-season success, the randomness of playoff losses, and the lack of enticing alternatives, and handing Dalton a contract in line with what Cutler received: $18-19MM per season, with $50-60MM in guarantees. Such a deal, as opposed to a 2015 franchise tag, would probably give the Bengals the room to negotiate contracts for Green and Burfict, keeping intact a core that could keep Cincinnati competitive for years to come.
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Extension Candidate: Alex Smith
Raise your hand if two years ago you thought Alex Smith would be in position to ask for a contract with an average annual value of about $18MM. Okay, now stop lying and put your hand down.
After a revitalizing season with the Chiefs last year that brought about his first Pro Bowl invitation, Smith is entering the final year of his contract and the Chiefs would like to keep him off the open market. That could be easier said that done. Earlier today, Ed Werder of ESPN.com reported that there has been “very little dialogue” between the two sides on a fresh contract. Head coach Andy Reid seems to think that they could get something done, but Kansas City is understandably reluctant to give Smith a deal similar to the one Jay Cutler got from the Bears. Cutler’s new seven-year deal gave him an AAV of $18.1MM, and that could be too rich for KC’s blood when it comes to the former No. 1 overall pick.
Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap looked at Smith’s case and weighed him against Cutler and Tony Romo. There are few areas – outside of win percentage – that favor Smith in a matchup with Romo when considering the Dallas QB’s completion percentage, touchdown/interception ratio, and other vitals. However, Smith and Cutler do appear to be a much stronger match. Neither guy is a slam-dunk franchise QB but both men have found success (even when it’s not pretty) and in a league with few quality options, they have to be considered premium talents. Ultimately, Fitzgerald concludes that an $18MM per year asking price is not outlandish based on what he done the last few seasons and I’m inclined to agree.
Do you think Smith is deserving of that type of deal? Cast your vote below and let us know in the comments section.
Extension Candidate: Roddy White
The Falcons want to lock up former All-Pro wide receiver Roddy White up for the long haul, but an unfortunate tragedy put football and contract talks on the backburner earlier this offseason. Understandably, neither side wanted to talk business after the untimely passing of White’s half-brother, Tyron Moore Jr. While things were put on hold, we learned earlier today that the Falcons still expect to hammer out an extension with White at some point this offseason.
The report from Ian Rapoport of NFL Network suggested that Brandon Marshall‘s new three-year, $30MM pact with the Bears could be used as a model for the deal. On the surface, that sounds like a fair deal considering that both men have been among the league’s elite wide receivers for several years. However, given White’s injury struggles last season and the presence of Julio Jones on the other side of the field, that could be a bit too lofty for him. Besides, Marshall is a couple years younger than White, who will celebrate his 33rd birthday in November.
Complicating matters further will be Jones’ contract situation. The dynamic receiver is set to earn $5.15MM in 2014 and $10.18MM in 2015 before he’s eligible to hit free agency and it’s a safe bet that his next deal will have an average annual value closer to his 2015 salary than his 2014 figure. At the end of the day, however, the Falcons know that White’s effectiveness will be limited if he doesn’t have another elite WR with him to attract attention. The Falcons got some solid games out of Harry Douglas and others last season, but outside of Jones, no wide receiver on the roster can deliver like White.
Some might say that a better comparable for White would be Colts veteran Reggie Wayne, who signed a three-year, $17.5MM extension at age 33. ESPN.com’s Vaughn McClure raised this point recently, but there are a couple of reasons why that comparable might be off. For starters, in our humble opinion, White has more value than Wayne, even when taking health into account. Secondly, Wayne’s deal was struck two years ago when teams were working under a smaller salary cap. Three years is probably the appropriate length on a new deal for White and a dollar figure that falls between Marshall’s deal and Wayne’s deal (say, $8MM average annual value) would make a lot of sense.
Extension Candidate Series
The bulk of free agency is behind us, but many of 2014’s biggest contracts could still be on the way. There are a number of players who have one or two years left on their contracts whose teams will want to lock them up before they’re eligible for free agency, and many of them will sign extensions over the next few weeks and months.
At Pro Football Rumors, we’ll look to cast a spotlight on several of these players, writing pieces that focus on many of the more notable extension candidates out there. These players won’t necessarily ink new deals before the regular season gets underway, or even before they hit free agency, but their clubs will at least want to discuss the idea, and we’ll examine what sort of contracts they might be in line for.
Our Extension Candidate series is already underway, and we’ll be adding plenty more installments to it in the near future. You can find this index at any time on the right-hand sidebar under “PFR Features” to follow the latest. Here’s our complete list so far:
- Cliff Avril (Seahawks): Extended
- Dez Bryant (Cowboys)
- Charles Clay (Dolphins)
- Randall Cobb (Packers)
- Michael Crabtree (49ers)
- Andy Dalton (Bengals): Extended
- Marcus Gilbert (Steelers): Extended
- Jermaine Gresham (Bengals)
- Jim Harbaugh (49ers)
- Brian Hoyer (Browns)
- Mark Ingram (Saints)
- Mike Iupati (49ers)
- Jeremy Maclin (Eagles)
- Devin McCourty (Patriots)
- Gerald McCoy (Buccaneers): Extended
- Von Miller (Broncos)
- Jordy Nelson (Packers): Extended
- Cam Newton (Panthers)
- Carson Palmer (Cardinals): Extended
- Patrick Peterson (Cardinals): Extended
- Maurkice Pouncey (Steelers): Extended
- Kyle Rudolph (Vikings): Extended
- Alex Smith (Chiefs): Extended
- Jimmy Smith (Ravens)
- Torrey Smith (Ravens)
- Tyron Smith (Cowboys): Extended
- Demaryius Thomas (Broncos)
- Julius Thomas (Broncos)
- Justin Tucker (Ravens)
- Roddy White (Falcons): Extended
Extension Candidate: Gerald McCoy
Yesterday, we learned that the Buccaneers have reached out to the agent of star defensive tackle Gerald McCoy in hopes of initiating talks on a contract extension, so it only makes sense to continue our series on extension candidates with a more detailed piece on McCoy.
McCoy, taken in the first round of the 2010 draft–just one pick after Lions DT Ndamukong Suh–struggled with injuries in each of his first two seasons in the league, missing three games with a left biceps tear in 2010 and missing 11 games with a right biceps tear in 2011. However, he showed flashes of dominance during those years and then established himself as a bonafide star in 2012, racking up five sacks, 37 quarterback hurries, and, most importantly, anchoring the interior of Tampa Bay’s stifling run defense.
Things only got better for McCoy in 2013, as he piled up 10 sacks and, according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), graded out as the top defensive tackle in the game. He will become a free agent at the end of the 2014 season, and, if he has not received an extension by that time, will be hitting the free agent market as a game-changing interior lineman at age 27.
As a top draft pick in the last year of the old CBA, McCoy is already a very wealthy man, having a signed a five-year, $63MM rookie contract in the summer of 2010. So what will his next contract look like? Probably pretty similar to the first one. The Bengals’ Geno Atkins, who is about a month younger than McCoy and who finished right above McCoy as PFF’s best defensive tackle in 2012–Atkins was 11th best in 2013, despite missing seven games with an ACL tear–signed a five-year, $55MM extension with Cincinnati in September of 2013. Two years earlier, a then-27-year-old Haloti Ngata signed a five-year extension with the Ravens worth $61MM. Ngata was reportedly offered a lucrative, long-term extension this offseason, but there is some dispute surrounding that rumor and no concrete financial details were released.
It seems, then, that McCoy can reasonably expect an extension in the five-year, $55-60MM range. ESPN.com’s Pat Yaskinsas suggested something even more lucrative, calling McCoy Tampa Bay’s “best player” and opining that a contract worth $13MM annually would not be unreasonable. For his part, McCoy has expressed excitement about the defense that new head coach Lovie Smith plans to install and has indicated that he has no intentions of holding out if he does not have a new deal by training camp. Judging by yesterday’s report, the Bucs hope that a new deal will, in fact, be reached before the start of the season, which would allow them to continue to reap the benefits of their star tackle as he progresses through his prime physical years.
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