Extension Candidate News & Rumors

Extension Candidate: Gerald McCoy

Yesterday, we learned that the Buccaneers have reached out to the agent of star defensive tackle Gerald McCoy in hopes of initiating talks on a contract extension, so it only makes sense to continue our series on extension candidates with a more detailed piece on McCoy.

NFL: Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay BuccaneersMcCoy, taken in the first round of the 2010 draft–just one pick after Lions DT Ndamukong Suh–struggled with injuries in each of his first two seasons in the league, missing three games with a left biceps tear in 2010 and missing 11 games with a right biceps tear in 2011. However, he showed flashes of dominance during those years and then established himself as a bonafide star in 2012, racking up five sacks, 37 quarterback hurries, and, most importantly, anchoring the interior of Tampa Bay’s stifling run defense.

Things only got better for McCoy in 2013, as he piled up 10 sacks and, according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), graded out as the top defensive tackle in the game. He will become a free agent at the end of the 2014 season, and, if he has not received an extension by that time, will be hitting the free agent market as a game-changing interior lineman at age 27.

As a top draft pick in the last year of the old CBA, McCoy is already a very wealthy man, having a signed a five-year, $63MM rookie contract in the summer of 2010. So what will his next contract look like? Probably pretty similar to the first one. The Bengals’ Geno Atkins, who is about a month younger than McCoy and who finished right above McCoy as PFF’s best defensive tackle in 2012–Atkins was 11th best in 2013, despite missing seven games with an ACL tear–signed a five-year, $55MM extension with Cincinnati in September of 2013. Two years earlier, a then-27-year-old Haloti Ngata signed a five-year extension with the Ravens worth $61MM. Ngata was reportedly offered a lucrative, long-term extension this offseason, but there is some dispute surrounding that rumor and no concrete financial details were released.

It seems, then, that McCoy can reasonably expect an extension in the five-year, $55-60MM range. ESPN.com’s Pat Yaskinsas suggested something even more lucrative, calling McCoy Tampa Bay’s “best player” and opining that a contract worth $13MM annually would not be unreasonable. For his part, McCoy has expressed excitement about the defense that new head coach Lovie Smith plans to install and has indicated that he has no intentions of holding out if he does not have a new deal by training camp. Judging by yesterday’s report, the Bucs hope that a new deal will, in fact, be reached before the start of the season, which would allow them to continue to reap the benefits of their star tackle as he progresses through his prime physical years.

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Extension Candidate: Jimmy Smith

The Ravens had high hopes for Jimmy Smith when they selected him with the 27th overall pick of the 2011 draft. Labeled by some as the most “pro-ready” cornerback in that draft class, Smith’s stock took a hit because of perceived character issues stemming from several failed drug tests and an aggravated assault charge. The Ravens, noting that those incidents came early in his collegiate career, rolled the dice on Smith, hoping he and Lardarius Webb might combine to form a fearsome duo in the secondary.

NFL: Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore RavensAlthough Smith has had no off-field troubles since entering the league, his career got off to an inauspicious start when he suffered an ankle injury covering the Ravens’ first kickoff of the first regular season game of 2011. Smith returned to the field a few weeks later and showed flashes of his elite skill throughout the rest of the season, including an interception of Tom Brady in the 2011 AFC Championship Game.

In 2012, however, Smith battled through health and performance problems, missing five games due to a sports hernia injury and struggling with his consistency when he did see the field. But in Super Bowl XLVII, Smith played an integral role in the Ravens’ goal-line stand that denied the 49ers’ attempts to take the lead in the closing minutes, and that effort appeared to catapult him into 2013.

Smith started all 16 games in 2013, recording two interceptions and finally displaying on a consistent basis the blend of athleticism and technical skill that made him so appealing to Baltimore in 2011. As such, it was a foregone conclusion that the Ravens would pick up his fifth-year option, which they did in April of this year, keeping him in Baltimore through the end of the 2015 campaign.

Nonetheless, the team has expressed interest in extending its budding star. As our Luke Adams pointed out in his piece on the extension possibilities for the Cardinals’ Patrick Peterson, extensions for top cornerbacks are becoming more and more lucrative. Richard Sherman‘s new deal with the Seahawks averages $14MM annually, while Joe Haden‘s extension with Cleveland includes a $22MM guarantee. Those contracts represent a sizable increase from the already hefty free agent deals handed out to 2014 free agents Darrelle Revis, Aqib Talib, and Vontae Davis.

Admittedly, Smith is not yet in the same conversation as Sherman, Haden, and Peterson. Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) ranked all three players among the top 20 cornerbacks in the league, whereas Smith checked in at No. 36. Of course, Peterson’s value is further enhanced by his return skills, and although Smith was a reliable special teams contributor earlier in his career, his value as a shutdown corner far outweighs his value as a gunner.

The Ravens, however, would stand to benefit from extending Smith sooner rather than later. A cornerback with his abilities is an increasingly critical component of a championship formula, and there is no reason to believe his 2013 successes were a fluke. If he repeats his 2013 performance in 2014, he will have officially established himself as one of the top corners in the league, and he will be justified in asking for a contract similar to Sherman’s and Haden’s. Although Smith’s second contract will probably not quite reach that level of lucrativeness, the longer the Ravens wait, the more expensive he will be.

 

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Extension Candidate: Jordy Nelson

Few teams consistently reward high-level play from homegrown talent like the Green Bay Packers. Draft picks that come in and play well usually earn a second contract and play out their primes in Titletown. And, by not waiting until the player’s contract expires, the team can avoid a bidding war with 31 other teams and negotiate exclusively with its talent. Jordy Nelson

This was the scenario for wide receiver Jordy Nelson early in the 2011 season. A second-round pick in 2008, the Kansas State product totaled modest numbers in his first three years — 100 catches, 1286 yards, six touchdowns — before exploding for career highs (68-1,263-15) in the Packers’ 15-1 season. Green Bay signed Nelson to an incredibly team-friendly three-year, $13.35MM extension after four games, locking him up through the 2014 season.

Nelson fought through injuries in 2012, playing in 12 games and catching just 49 balls. But, proving he doesn’t need an elite quarterback to put up elite numbers, Nelson set career bests in receptions (85) and yards (1,314) in 2013, catching passes from Aaron Rodgers, Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn.

Now, with just one year left on his deal, Nelson is one of the Packers’ prime candidates for a contract extension. Right behind him — or along side — is fellow wideout Randall Cobb, who is still on his rookie contract, but we’ll get to him later.

In February, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport was told that signing Nelson to an extension is an important offseason task for the team.

In March, ESPN’s Rob Demovsky reported that the team’s salary cap is in excellent standing, with plenty of room to extend Nelson and Cobb if and when they choose to do so.

Today, answering tweets from his readers, Demovsky said it would be a surprise if at least one of the two free-agents-to-be didn’t receive his extension before September. He also suggests that Cobb is a more vital re-sign, given his youth and a “budding star” status.

In a Facebook poll, the Green Bay Press-Gazette’s Wes Hodkiewicz asked readers which receiver they’d choose to extend. 69 voted Nelson, 41 voted Cobb and 31 couldn’t get off the fence, voting for both.

Nelson’s not exactly old — he’ll turn 29 in a week — but the Packers have recently shown a willingness to walk away from wide receivers who might have seen their best years in the rear view. Case in point, Greg Jennings, whom the Packers let walk after seven incredibly productive seasons. Jennings got his payday in Minnesota, signing a five-year deal with a maximum value of $47.5MM ($18MM guaranteed).

After next season, Nelson will have been in Green Bay seven years, just like Jennings. Both are former second-round picks who were locked up to team-friendly deals in the midst of their rookie contracts.

According to Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Packers offered Jennings a contract averaging $8MM to stay in Green Bay once the free agency period started. Jennings chose Minnesota. During the season, with Jennings at his peak, the team reportedly offered $11MM/season, which Jennings turned down, far less than the $15 million AAV he was after.

Just last week, another division rival has helped set the market for receivers, with Chicago’s Brandon Marshall signing a four-year, $40MM extension with $22.5MM guaranteed. Will Nelson’s agent use Marshall’s extension to negotiate his client’s new deal? Will the Packers go the same route with Nelson they did with Jennings if the asking price is too high? Only time will tell, but all of Titletown — and especially its quarterback — will be watching.

 

Extension Candidate: Patrick Peterson

Free agent cornerbacks made out awfully well for themselves back in March, with Aqib Talib securing the largest overall contract of the offseason ($57MM), while Darrelle Revis landed the biggest annual value (technically $16MM per year; realistically $12MM per year). However, as our list of the largest free agent contracts of the year shows, neither of those deals ranked among the contracts with the most guaranteed money. Vontae Davis of the Colts barely made his way onto that list, but for the most part, several other positions ranked ahead of corners when it came to overall guarantees.Patrick Peterson

That hasn’t been the case so far during contract extension season though. Two of the league’s most talented cornerbacks, Richard Sherman of the Seahawks and the Browns’ Joe Haden, have inked new long-term deals over the last several weeks, and both players raised the bar for the sort of paydays that the NFL’s elite corners should expect. Sherman’s four-year extension averaged $14MM annually, significantly exceeding the numbers achieved by Revis, Talib, and this year’s other free agent corners. Haden’s five-year deal, meanwhile, reportedly includes $22MM in fully guaranteed money, which would have ranked first on our list of overall guarantees for 2014 free agent contracts, topping Branden Albert‘s $20MM.

Players around the league are undoubtedly taking notice of contracts like Sherman’s and Haden’s, and few players are watching more closely than Patrick Peterson of the Cardinals, who may be the next cornerback in line for a lucrative multiyear extension. Shortly after word of Haden’s new deal broke, Peterson tweeted, “45!!!!!” — a reference to the total guarantee in Haden’s contract, which also is said to feature $23MM guaranteed for injury only.

The Cardinals and Peterson’s reps have engaged in extension talks this offseason, and the All-Pro expressed optimism that he’ll remain in Arizona “for a while.” But his case is a little different than Sherman’s and Haden’s. Both of those players had just one year remaining on their previous contracts, which added a little urgency to negotiations for their respective teams, who didn’t want to see their stars reach free agency. After having his fifth-year option exercised recently, Peterson is under contract for two more years, through the 2015 season.

Still, even if there’s not necessarily a rush to get something done before the 2014 season, the two sides appear committed to trying to reach a common ground. If the team and player want to resolve the long-term contract situation sooner rather than later, tacking a few years onto Peterson’s current contract at some point this summer seems likely.

So what sort of money would Peterson be looking at on a new deal? Sherman and Haden provide two easy points of comparison. Although Peterson is the youngest of the trio, the fact that he’s under contract for two years means that Arizona would be locking him up for a similar portion of his career. Sherman’s four new years span his age 27 to age 30 seasons, while Haden’s five new years lock him up from age 26 through 30. A new contract for Peterson would begin in 2016, his age 26 season.

Of course, the fact that Peterson is still just 23 years old (24 in July) should play some part in negotiations. It’s fair to assume that the young star still has some room for improvement, and if Peterson believes he can take another step forward during the 2014 season, he may be inclined to wait another year to sign a deal, when his value is even higher and the Cardinals feel a little more pressure to get something done.

More important than Peterson’s age is his performance, and it’s hard to argue he’s not in the same class as Sherman and Haden. Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) ranked the former fifth overall pick among the top 20 cornerbacks in the league in each of the last two seasons, and he was a takeaway machine in those two years, snagging 10 interceptions and recovering seven fumbles.

The fact that Peterson ranked 102nd out of 109 corners during his rookie season, according to PFF’s grades, is a knock against him, particularly when compared to Haden, who has never ranked outside the top 20 at his position. The Cardinals’ standout has also never ranked higher than 16th on PFF, whereas Sherman has been in the top six each of the last two seasons. But Peterson makes up for that somewhat with his knack for big plays and his ability to return punts. Although his role on special teams was reduced somewhat in 2013, Peterson returned four punts for touchdowns in his rookie year, and that capacity for providing a game-changing play when he’s not even on defense increases his overall value as a player.

Peterson will likely be pushing to exceed the $14MM annual salary Sherman got on his four-year extension and the $22MM in fully guaranteed money that Haden received on his five new years. I’m skeptical that he tops both figures, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he at least matches one or both. If Peterson and the Cardinals were open to something similar to the five years and $68MM that Haden got from the Browns, that would bring Peterson’s seven-year total to nearly $81MM, exceeding Haden’s overall value.

Perhaps the Cardinals, with a roster closer to contention and a winter climate that’s more appealing than Cleveland’s, wouldn’t have to pay quite the same premium to keep their own star cornerback off the free agent market. But based on Peterson’s Twitter reaction to Haden’s extension, it’s clear he’s keeping a close eye on what his fellow corners are earning, meaning it’s unlikely he takes a real discount. If the Cardinals are willing to pony up with two years still remaining on Peterson’s deal, it may just be a matter of time until we see our third huge cornerback extension of the spring.

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