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Offseason Outlook: Tennessee Titans

By | at February 20, 2015 8:40 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Jason McCourty, CB: $8,600,000
  2. Andy Levitre, G: $8,600,000
  3. Michael Griffin, S: $8,100,000
  4. Jurrell Casey, DL: $6,720,000
  5. Delanie Walker, TE: $5,275,000
  6. Sammie Lee Hill, DT: $4,660,418
  7. Craig Stevens, TE: $4,500,000
  8. Kamerion Wimbley, DE: $4,493,750
  9. Shonn Greene, RB: $4,183,334
  10. Bernard Pollard, S: $3,625,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • Hired 2014 Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau as assistant head coach.

Draft:

  • No. 2 overall pick
  • Acquired sixth-round pick from Patriots in deal for Akeem Ayers.
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Cowboys in deal for Lavar Edwards.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Patriots for Akeem Ayers.

Other:

Overview

No one expected much out of the Titans in 2014, but their 2-14 mark was a disappointment to fans who were hoping to see something out of this team. In the preseason, newly-hired head coach Ken Whisenhunt set the bar fairly high when he said that he wouldn’t need to exercise patience with his squad. In September, he realized that he had overestimated what he had on his roster.

“You know, I guess that’s the problem saying those kind of things,” Whisenhunt said when asked by Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean about his previous expectations. “You go on a stretch where you have a couple games and you don’t play well, and those are the kind of things that, hey, I still believe that, I still believe we have a team that’s good enough, that’s better than what we are playing right now. But we have to look at what we are doing, how we are doing it. We have to look at everything. Maybe.”

Once again, the Titans are not expected to be world-beaters, but they need to show something.

Key Free AgentsDerrick Morgan

Seemingly half of the Titans’ roster is eligible for free agency but only a few can really be considered to be pivotal. Outside linebacker Derrick Morgan is one of them and probably stands as the highest priority. Late last month, our own Luke Adams named Morgan as one of the club’s likeliest candidates for the franchise tag, though he felt that it was unlikely to be used at all. Recently, GM Ruston Webster said that he doesn’t think the tag will be “in play” for anyone. Morgan has been told that the Titans want to retain him, but it remains to be seen how far they’d be willing to go for him. The former No. 16 overall pick has posted just 23.5 sacks in his five seasons as a pro. This past season, however, Morgan ranked as the eighth-best 3-4 outside linebacker according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required and recommended).

Longtime Titans tackle Michael Roos might not be back with the Titans in 2015 and he might not play at all. Roos appeared in just five games in 2014 after being placed on IR. The Titans are the only organization he has known since his debut in 2005, but Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com reported in December that Roos probably wouldn’t return to the club since he has been squeezed out at left tackle in favor of Taylor Lewan. Roos indicated that he was leaning towards retirement before the New Year but there have also been rumblings that he would be okay with a shift to right tackle, where he spent some time in his first two seasons. Any way you slice it, it sounds like the odds are against Roos coming back to Tennessee in 2015.

Speaking of long-tenured members of the Titans, Nate Washington completed the sixth and final year of the deal he signed with the club in 2009. As you may recall, Washington’s tenure with the team almost ended a few months early when the Titans were aggressively shopping their veterans around the trade deadline. Washington stayed put, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him ring in his 32nd birthday (in August) with another club. On the other hand, the Titans have a young core of receivers and whether it’s Zach Mettenberger or someone else, the quarterback position will be filled by a youngster. It might not hurt to have someone with experience there to help guide the offense. The veteran had 40 receptions for 647 receiving yards and two touchdowns in 2014.

Quarterback Jake Locker is among the biggest names on that free agent list, but the Titans are not interested in bringing him back.

Possible Cap Casualties

Michael Griffin has the third-highest cap hit of anyone on the team at $8.1MM. Simply put, the safety is paid like a top performer at his position but he is years removed from that mantle. The advanced metrics, unsurprisingly, tell a similar story. Pro Football Focus gave him an overall grade of -15.7 in 2014, placing him 83rd out of 87 qualified safeties. His play put him in the same category of Kenny Vaccaro, who had a remarkably disappointing year for New Orleans, and Ryan Clark, who has decided to move on from football. If the Titans drop Griffin, they’ll save $4.5MM against the cap. Griffin told reporters in December that if the Titans came to him and said they wanted him back for less money, it would come down to a family decision and what is best for them. That’s a call he might never get to make, however.

Running back Shonn Greene is likely a goner this season as the Titans can save $3.35MM but cutting him loose. Greene carried the ball 94 times in 2014 for 392 yards and two touchdowns and saw his role move all over the map throughout the season. The jury is still out on whether rising sophomore Bishop Sankey can make an impact in the NFL, but the Titans pretty much know what they’ll get out of Greene, and it ain’t worth what they’re slated to pay him.

Safety Bernard Pollard asked for his release from the Titans in late January and he could have that wish granted. Keeping Pollard would mean paying him a $3.1MM base salary but cutting him would only leave the Titans with just $425K in dead money. Pollard played in just five games last season before landing on injured reserve with an Achilles injury, but he was a solid player as recently as 2013, when he racked up 77 tackles while starting all 16 games, and rated as the league’s No. 21 safety among 86 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Guard Andy Levitre could be a candidate for release, but it’s more likely that they’ll try and re-work his deal rather than carry $6MM+ in dead money. Ditto for teammates Jason McCourty and Craig Stevens. The Titans already saved themselves a pretty penny when they cut ties with Michael Oher in February.

Positions Of Need

The Titans’ biggest need of all is probably at the quarterback position. While they “like” Mettenberger, they’re not willing to name him as their starter for 2015 by any means. The free agent quarterback class, as you’ve probably heard once or twice before, leaves a lot to be desired. That’s why at the No. 2 overall pick, the Titans are widely expected to go for either Oregon star Marcus Mariota or FSU standout Jameis Winston, depending on what the Bucs do at No. 1. Webster has been telling the world that they’ll consider other needs at No. 2, but his club is still expected by many to take a QB. If the Titans aren’t high enough on whichever quarterback the Bucs pass on, they might pursue a trade with the Bears for Jay Cutler.

On defense, the Titans need to generate more pressure on the quarterback to make their 3-4 scheme effective. Brian Orakpo, Washington’s highest paid player in 2014, might not get the kind of money he wants in D.C., leading him to the open market. Despite his injury-riddled 2014, Orakpo stands as one of the league’s most terrifying linebackers when healthy. Alternatively, if the Titans stick with the selfie-loving Mettenberger, they could find an edge rusher with the No. 2 pick in Nebraska’s Randy Gregory. Some are concerned about Gregory’s size but a steady regimen of deadlifts and red meat could take care of that.

The Titans could use a worthwhile partner for McCourty and luckily for them, there are plenty of quality options available on the open market. The Titans might not go for top-shelf guys like Byron Maxwell or Darrelle Revis (if available), but the next tier of corners features multiple guys who could be had for cheaper, shorter-term deals. Antonio Cromartie is a veteran who would fit the bill, though he might lean towards a reunion with the Jets or a chance to join a contender instead.

Tennessee could look into adding a solid wide receiver, though it won’t be a higher priority than those listed above. A solid effort from Kendall Wright plus the long-awaited blossoming of Justin Hunter could give the Titans enough firepower to move the chains. Retaining the aforementioned Washington could also be a smart move.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

Wright is entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract and the Titans could look to lock up the former first-round pick early. They’ll have him at a relative bargain this season with a cap number of $2.6MM and even though his next deal will cost a bit more, the team could get another solid value by addressing it sooner rather than later.

Cutting Levitre remains unlikely, but that doesn’t mean that Webster can’t put on his best poker face and try to talk his camp into a modest pay cut. Levitre’s massive contract, signed in 2013, is scheduled to take him through the 2018 season. With a $6.5MM base for the next three seasons and a $5.8MM base in ’18, the Titans might be able to shave off a million or two for the coming year. The guard graded out as being well below average in 2014 with a -5.8 overall rating, per Pro Football Focus.

The Titans could push McCourty to take a small pay cut also and it’s not likely that he’ll want to give up his cushy deal and jump into an especially strong cornerback market. Stevens has a $4.5MM cap hit and the team should be able to talk him into a more aggressive cut.

Overall Outlook

This is an extremely pivotal offseason in Tennessee. While they’re armed with a boatload of cap room, the biggest decision the Titans make will come on April 30th when it’s time to hand their first selection over to commissioner Roger Goodell.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

0 comments Offseason Outlook PFR Originals Tennessee Titans

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Bears

By | at February 19, 2015 8:00 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Jay Cutler, QB: $16,500,000
  2. Jared Allen, DE: $12,500,000
  3. Brandon Marshall, WR: $9,575,000
  4. Matt Forte, RB: $9,200,000
  5. Jermon Bushrod, T: $8,050,000
  6. Lamarr Houston, DE: $6,990,000
  7. Martellus Bennett, TE: $6,125,000
  8. Tim Jennings, CB: $5,250,000
  9. Robbie Gould, K: $3,600,000
  10. Matt Slauson, G: $3,267,500

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 7 overall pick
  • Owe fifth-round pick to Broncos in deal for Brock Vereen.

Other:

Overview

After firing head coach Lovie Smith and replacing him with Marc Trestman heading into the 2013 season, the Bears actually regressed record-wise, falling from 10 wins in 2012 to eight in 2013. But win-loss record aside, things were looking up in Chicago, as Trestman seemingly molded an offense that played to the strengths of quarterback JayJay Cutler Cutler and his primary receivers, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. The Bears finished second in scoring and eighth in yards, good for a No. 6 rating in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

But with a postseason berth looming as realistic goal for the 2014 season, the offense cratered amid reports of discord in the locker room, as Cutler threw a league-leading 18 interceptions and was thrown under the bus by offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer. The entire unit struggled, falling to 23rd in scoring, 21st in yards, and 14th in DVOA. The defense, which general manager Phil Emery augmented with free agent additions like Lamarr Houston and Jared Allen, was also lackluster, finishing 31st in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed (but surprisingly 14th in DVOA). Entering the year with high expectations, Chicago ultimately limped to a 5-11 record, good for last in the NFC South.

Coaching/Front Office Changes

From the outset, Trestman was an unconventional hire — he’d been out the NFL for nearly a decade when he was given the Bears HC job, and had been coaching in the CFL for the prior five seasons. Insiders worried at the time of the hire that Trestman might lack the skills required to command an NFL locker room, and while confirmation bias could definitely be at playe here, it’s fair to wonder if Trestman’s personality played a role in the team’s downfall. Issues such as these are tough to judge from an outsider’s perspective, and regardless, it’s safe to say Chicago’s on-the-field performance was sufficiently poor enough to warrant Trestman’s dismissal.

It’s a little easier to judge the performance of Emery, as many of the moves he made to supplement a decent Bears core simply didn’t work out, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Signed to a five-year, $35MM contract, Houston was mostly ineffective before tearing his ACL in October after celebrating a sack while Chicago was losing by 25 points. Allen, meanwhile, was handed $32MM over four years, and while he was more of a contributor than Houston, $32MM (including $15.5MM guaranteed) is a lot of money for a player who turns 33 in April. But the move that probably sealed Emery’s fate was the seven-year extension handed to Cutler, which we’ll delve into below.

Following the firing of Trestman and Emery in late December, the Bears settled on former Saints executive Ryan Pace as their new GM after a search that saw Chicago meet with Chris Ballard of the Chiefs, Brian Gaine of the Dolphins, and Lake Dawson of the Titans. At 37, Pace becomes the youngest general manager in the league. It’s fair to wonder if Pace will employ the same sort of contract structures in Chicago that often led the Saints to having little or no cap space, but given that Pace’s title was player personnel director, he probably doesn’t deserve blame for New Orleans’ cap woes.

Aside from the Broncos, the Bears interviewed the fewest candidates of any club searching for a new head coach. Chicago was one of only two teams who were replacing its general manager in addition to its HC, so it’s possible they wanted to have Pace in place before getting too deep into its coaching hunt. But it’s also conceivable the Bears simply got lucky, as just four days after Denver parted ways with John Fox, Chicago scooped him up, signing the 60-year-old to a four-year contract. Fox, entering his 14th season as an NFL head coach, will bring Adam Gase with him from Denver to head up the offense, while adding former 49ers DC Vic Fangio to lead the defense (and shift to a 3-4 scheme).

Quarterback Situation

“What do we do about Jay?” is the key question surely on the mind of Pace, Fox, and every fan in the Windy City. After Cutler was benched for the penultimate game of the 2014 season, many figured his tenure in Chicago was all but over; he eventually started the season finale after backup Jimmy Clausen suffered a concussion, but after a season in which the 31-year-old Cutler rated as the league’s No. 32 QB per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), it was assumed that the club was ready to move on.

But it’s possible (and even likely) that Cutler’s seven-year, $126.7MM extension that runs through 2020 won’t allow the Bears to throw in the towel just yet. Cutler’s deal contains a fully guaranteed $38MM, which includes his 2015 salary of $15.5MM. That figure, along with the prorated portions of his signing bonus, would leave Chicago with $19.5MM in dead money if it chose to release its quarterback — keeping Cutler on the roster, however, would cost just $16.5MM. Designating Cutler as a post-June 1 cut would leave his 2015 cap hit at $16.5MM, so the Bears would again realize no cap relief.

Realistically, Chicago can’t release Cutler this year, as the cap hit would simply be too high for a player not on the roster. The only alternative, then, would be to trade Cutler, which would reduce his 2015 dead money to just $4MM, saving the Bears $12.5MM in ’15 cap space. Cutler would presumably be in high demand given the paucity of available QBs, as the Buccaneers, Browns, Titans, Bills, and Jets are among the clubs that could have interest (and the cap space required) to acquire the veteran signal-caller.

The central argument against trading Cutler is simply the scarcity of competent starting quarterbacks. The free agent QB market doesn’t offer many inspiring options, as the likes of Mark Sanchez, Brian Hoyer, and Josh McCown (who the Bears met with yesterday) aren’t improvements over Cutler. Similarly, the draft lacks quarterback depth, and as holders of the seventh overall pick, the Bears probably won’t get a shot at Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota without trading up. So without a viable alternative, Chicago’s best course of action might be to ride out 2015 with Cutler, hope for the best, and re-evaluate the situation next offseason.

While Cutler’s future is mostly conjecture for now, neither Pace nor Fox sound too enthused about committing to Cutler for the foreseeable future. Speaking at the combine yesterday, Pace refused to call Cutler the Bears’ starting QB, and said the club would take its time with its evaluations. Fox, meanwhile, was also non-committal, telling reporters, “We’re not up against a deadline…We’ll keep you posted.” The head coach later added: “I don’t think there’s any question there’s ability and talent there but there’s a lot more that goes into it.”

Key Free Agents

While Cutler figures to be the main offseason storyline in Chicago, the Bears do have several players who will hit the open market next month unless new contracts are worked out. From a sentimental standpoint, the most important pending free agents are longtime Bears Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman. Briggs, 34, played in only eight games last season but was the Bears’ third-best defender per PFF, while Tillman, who turns 34 on Monday, appeared in just two games before injuring his triceps. Neither should be priorities as Chicago looks to remake its defense, and I wouldn’t expect either to return in 2015, although Briggs would make more sense, if only on a one-year deal.

The Bears’ most important FA will be defensive tackle Stephen Paea, who if re-signed, would probably need to shift to defensive end in Fangio’s 3-4 look — at 6’1″ and 300 pounds, he has the size to do so. The 26-year-old graded as the No. 11 DT in the league according to PFF, although his sub-par run grade is a bit concerning, given that 3-4 ends’ primary responsibility is to defend the run. The interior defensive line market is flush with options, so Paea could face some competition, but he could command a salary of around $5MM. At that price, Chicago might instead opt to consider players who have more experience in the 3-4.

Safety Chris Conte, who like Tillman has a birthday on Monday (but is eight years younger) is also a free agent. He offers youth (he’s entering his age-26 season) and experience (more than 600 snaps in each of his first three seasons), but he’s dealt with shoulder injuries throughout his career and has produced at merely an average level. In 2014, Conte graded as the No. 63 safety among 87 qualifiers per PFF. He’d been better than that in the two seasons prior, but he’s always been in the middle of the pack relative to his peers. He could make sense as a reserve (especially given the weak safety market), but the Bears should look to upgrade.

Only four more Bears free agents saw more than 200 snaps in 2014. Linebacker D.J. Williams, receiver Josh Morgan, and tight end Dante Rosario were all ineffective last year, and Chicago will probably move on from that trio. But offensive lineman Brian De La Puente had a very successful season in ’14 during which he saw 501 snaps, mostly while filling in at center for Roberto Garza during the early portion of the year. De La Puente is only 28 years old and had to surprisingly accept a one-year deal for the minimum salary benefit last offseason. The Bears extended Garza through 2015, so it’s possible that De La Puente will look for a starting job elsewhere. Otherwise, he’d offer valuable depth along Chicago’s offensive line.

Possible Cap Casualties

With more than $26MM of cap space to work with, the Bears don’t have to make any drastic moves to create more financial flexibility. Chicago’s only pressing issue will be deciding the fate of receiver Brandon Marshall, who is due a 2015 base salary of $7.5MM and scheduled to count $9.575MM against the cap. Releasing him now would give the Bears $3.95MM worth of cap space, while designating him as a post-June 1 cut would create $7.7MM in savings. The 30-year-old Marshall was among the NFL’s best receivers as recently as 2013, but last season saw him catch just 61 passes for 721 yards, and he missed the final three games with broken ribs.

Marshall’s 2015 salary becomes guaranteed on the third day of the 2015 league year, so the Bears need to make a decision on his future before then. The club could conceivably ask him to take a pay cut, but I’d guess that Marshall would prefer to hit the open market rather than accept a salary decrease. If Chicago doesn’t want to retain Marshall, it could opt to explore a trade, which would create the same amount of cap space as a release.

The only other conceivable cut would be guard Matt Slauson, who played well in 2013, but struggled in 2014 before tearing his pectoral in October. He’ll only count about $3.3MM in 2015, however, so I’m guessing the Bears will retain him and hope for a bounce-back season.

Positions Of Need

Nearly every position on the Bears’ defense could use a talent infusion, and given that Fangio will install a new scheme, adding new players is doubly important. The defensive line will need to be revamped, and even if Paea is re-signed, Chicago will need to find nose tackle to anchor the middle of the line. Fox knows Terrance Knighton from their days in Denver, but as the top NT available, Pot Roast will garner a hefty sum. Cheaper options include Dan Williams and B.J. Raji, each of whom is on the right side of 30 and has experience in the 3-4. Raji, in particular, will probably command only a modest salary on a one-year deal after missing the entire 2014 season.

Linebacker could also afford an upgrade, starting with the inside. If the Bears are looking for an early-down run stuffer, there are several options available, including Rey Maualuga, Brandon Spikes, and again playing to the Fox/Broncos connection, Nate Irving. David Harris is also a free agent, but most expect him to stay with the Jets or follow Rex Ryan to the Bills. The edge rushing market is more robust, as while top FA Justin Houston is unlikely to hit free agency, players like Jerry Hughes, Brian Orakpo, and Pernell McPhee are. Someone like Orakpo or Jabaal Sheard could be an interesting add on a short-term deal, as could Akeem Ayers if he doesn’t re-up with the Patriots. Additionally, if the 49ers cut any of Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, or Ahmad Brooks, I’d expect Fangio to push for the Bears to sign them.

Pickings are slim at safety, but the Bears desperately need someone to play alongside Ryan Mundy. Like most of the league, Chicago would love to bring in Devin McCourty, but he’s expected to see the franchise tag in New England. Former Bronco Rahim Moore would make sense, while veteran Antrel Rolle would be a stabilizing presence in the back end. Da’Norris Searcy is said to be looking for larger role than the Bills have given him, and he’d be a smart sign for the Bears, as would Mike Adams or Dawan Landry, each of whom rated among PFF’s top-10 safeties. If the Buccaneers are still trying to trade Dashon Goldson, he could be an option for Chicago given his history with Fangio.

At corner, the Bears are set with Kyle Fuller at one spot and veteran Tim Jennings in the slot, but they could use one more pass defender to play opposite Fuller. Adding veteran Tramon Williams on a short-term pact could be worthwhile, while fellow Packer Davon House could offer some untapped upside and youth (he’s entering his age-25 season). Both Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver have familiarity with Fangio’s scheme, and given the relative lack of draftable corner options, I’d expect the Bears to add at least one CB in free agency.

Needs on the offense aren’t as numerous, but small upgrades could be made here and there. Right tackle Jordan Mills struggled in 2014, but given that he’ll be entering only his third season in the NFL, I’d wager the Bears will give him another opportunity at starting. But depth along the line could be augmented, as rookie Michael Ola was unspectacular in filling in at numerous positions. Reserve options could be added at quarterback, running back, and receiver, but I’d expect the Bears to target these positions in the draft, where the OL and WR positions in particular are said to be deep.

Extension Candidate/Contract Decisions

As a 2012 draft pick, Jeffery is now eligible for an extension; because he wasn’t drafted in the first round, however, Jeffery isn’t attached to a fifth-year option, so his contract ends after 2015. The Bears could use the franchise tag on him, but a long-term deal could be best for both sides, especially if the club moves on from Marshall. Having average 87 receptions, 1,277 yards, and eight touchdowns over the past two years, the 25-year-old Jeffery should be in for a large raise. Any extensions inked by Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant in the coming months should set a ceiling for Jeffery, but he could probably command close to $12MM annually.

Running back Matt Forte is also entering the final year of his contract which has paid him an AAV of $7.6MM. Forte has been both productive and remarkably consistent during his NFL career, and is among the best pass-catching backs in the league. But he’ll be 30 years old entering next offseason, and there could be some concern about the tread on his tires. Still, given that he’s scheduled to count $8.2MM against the cap in ’15, the Bears could offer him a short-term extension in the hopes of creating some immediate financial wiggle room.

The Bears do have a fifth-year option on Shea McClellin, but there’s almost no chance it gets exercised. McClellin has struggled to find a position on defense in his three years in the league, and hasn’t been effective in any role.

Overall Outlook

The Bears have a lot of work to do this offseason, and with a new GM, head coach, and coordinators in place, this club could look a lot different (particularly on defense) come the regular season. But until the club definitively decides what to do with Cutler, little else will make headlines in Chicago. If they do trade Cutler, the Bears could be looking at a full-scale rebuild until they find a new starting quarterback. If they keep Cutler around, they’ll need to add several pieces to their defense and hope that an infusion of talent will lead to better results. Either way, it could be a tough road to relevancy in an NFC North that features two playoff teams in the Packers and Lions, as well as the Vikings, who look to be on the rise themselves.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

1 comment Chicago Bears Offseason Outlook PFR Originals

Offseason Outlook: New Orleans Saints

By | at February 19, 2015 8:55 am

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Drew Brees, QB: $26,400,000
  2. Junior Galette, DE: $15,450,000
  3. Jimmy Graham, TE: $11,000,000
  4. Jahri Evans, G: $11,000,000
  5. Jairus Byrd, S: $10,300,000
  6. Marques Colston, WR: $9,700,000
  7. Ben Grubbs, G: $9,600,000
  8. Curtis Lofton, LB: $9,250,000
  9. Cameron Jordan, DE: $6,969,000
  10. Brodrick Bunkley, DT: $6,112,500

Notable coaching changes:

  • Hired 2014 Raiders head coach Dennis Allen as senior defensive assistant.

Draft:

  • No. 13 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

The PFR staff didn’t agree on much when we submitted our predictions for the 2014 season. However, we were all on the same page when it came to the Saints. Every writer – including yours truly – predicted that New Orleans would win the NFC South. More than one writer saw the Saints playing in February and, why not? On paper, there was no reason to think that they couldn’t be one of the league’s elite once again. Of course, when the Saints finished with a 7-9 mark, we all wound up with a red X, though that record was nearly good enough to take the crown in what proved to be an awful year for the division.

In short, the Saints have some work to do this offseason to get back on top, but not a whole lot of cap room to work with.

Positions Of Need

The Saints’ top need is probably at the cornerback position and they’re widely expected to address that in free agency rather than in the draft. When the Saints’ duo of Keenan Lewis and Jabari Greer patrolled the field in 2013, New Orleans had themselves a solid pairing that gave the team above-average production, as the metrics at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) show. However, Greer suffered a devastating career-ending injury midway through the season and that unit really hasn’t been the same since. This offseason, the Saints are probably looking for something more substantial than a band-aid fix.

Luckily, there should be no shortage of quality options on the open market. At the top of the list, the Saints could find guys like Byron Maxwell, Kareem Jackson, and Brandon Flowers. Veteran Antonio Cromartie will also be there, though teams might be wary of his age and a possible regression towards the kind of play he exhibited during the end of his tenure with the Jets. If the Saints do look to the draft for a CB, guys like Michigan State cornerback Trae Waynes, Washington corner Marcus Peters, or LSU’s Jalen Collins could be options, though all have their own drawbacks, including Peters’ off-the-field incidents. Recently, Saints defensive back Corey White, who was seeing time at safety to close out the 2014 season, made it known that he’ll be moving back to cornerback. However, I would expect that he’ll be no higher than the No. 3 option on the depth chart.

The Saints will also look to make upgrades at both outside linebacker and probably inside linebacker. PFF rated Curtis Lofton as one of the very worst starting linebackers in the NFL last season and, frankly, you probably didn’t need advanced metrics to tell you that. And, on the outside, the Saints need a worthy partner for Junior Galette, who might not even be on the field to start the season thanks to his January incident. With a desperate need for an athletic edge rusher, the OLB need will probably take priority even over the inside. Florida’s Dante Fowler Jr. has been widely connected to the Saints at No. 13 and he could be a fit as both a defensive end and outside linebacker. Clemson’s Vic Beasley is another intriguing possibility and one that could potentially fit at both positions, even if some believe he projects more as a defensive end. Meanwhile, reserve Parys Haralson will be back in the fold for the Saints after agreeing to a one-year deal.

Khiry Robinson is promising but the Saints will be in the market for a tailback if Mark Ingram goes elsewhere. New Orleans could also shop for a center if they don’t feel that Tim Lelito is ready for primetime.Mark Ingram (Featured)

Key Free Agents

The Saints are still interested in reaching a deal with Ingram, but GM Mickey Loomis stressed on Wednesday that their ability to keep him will be “intertwined” with the team’s salary cap situation and Ingram’s market value. “In free agency, everyone wants to see what the market is,” Loomis said. “The question is, can that get done prior to March 10? Can both sides get a good feel for that beforehand and do a deal, or do we need to wait and see where all the offers are and respond accordingly?” With limited cap room and multiple teams that could be in the market for a running back, his return is anything but certain. Meanwhile, fellow tailback Travaris Cadet is headed towards restricted free agency.

While the Saints secondary as a whole was disappointing in 2014, especially with the injuries suffered by Jairus Byrd and Kenny Vaccaro, Jamarca Sanford was something of a bright spot when he joined the team later in the season. We’re not expecting an overhaul at either strong safety or free safety, but the team probably wants Sanford back as a safety net in case of another letdown.

After taking care of Haralson and kicker Shayne Graham, the Saints don’t have a whole lot of other high-priority free agents. The aforementioned Goodwin will be eligible for free agency, but they’ll probably part ways after a season in which the veteran ranked No. 27 out of 41 qualified centers, per PFF.

Possible Cap Casualties

Marques Colston has been a mainstay on the Saints roster for years, but he has regressed sharply and he has the salary of a top-20 receiver. Releasing Colston would give the Saints $4.3MM in cap room, but it might make more sense to keep him, possibly with a reworked contract. The Saints love to spread the ball around to different receivers from week to week, but Colston is the one who sees more looks that any of them on the whole.

After an atrocious 2014, Lofton’s time in New Orleans could be through, though there isn’t an in-house answer to replace him. Guard Jahri Evans has an $11MM cap charge for 2015 and the Saints could save $6MM by dropping him. However, it’s worth noting that Evans played the second half of the season with a partially torn triangular fibrocartilage complex in his wrist, so the team might have higher hopes for him once he’s healthy. Cutting nose tackle Brodrick Bunkley, who finished the year on IR, would save the team nearly $2.9MM. Tailback Pierre Thomas could also go, but I think his future will depend largely on what happens with Ingram and Cadet this offseason.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

With their backs against the wall, the Saints can be expected to try and restructure deals with multiple players. Currently hamstrung with being more than $23MM over the cap, the Saints can play around with the contracts of Jimmy Graham, Byrd, Galette, and Lofton to take care of that overage.

Drew Brees has a cap charge of $26.4MM in 2015 and $27.4MM in 2016, but converting salary to a bonus next season would only cripple the club’s cap in future seasons. Some have suggested that Brees could (or should) effectively take a pay cut like Tom Brady did with the Patriots, but Brees has been outspoken on players’ rights and the Saints would probably be barking up the tree if they went that route.

An extension for Brees, tacking a couple extra years onto a contract that currently runs through the 2016 season, could be a win-win for the player and the team, reducing his short-term cap hit while ensuring that he has the sort of deal that would allow him to finish his career in New Orleans. Extending Cameron Jordan may also allow the club to clear some 2015 cap room, as he’s currently on the books for nearly $7MM. Jordan recorded just 7.5 sacks last year after racking up 12.5 in 2013, and his pass-rushing production dropped off across the board, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). But he’s still capable of getting to the quarterback and more than held his own against the run — it’d be a little surprising if the Saints don’t want to keep him around beyond 2015.

Overall Outlook

The Saints don’t have a ton of breathing room this offseason and they’re not going to make a giant splash in free agency like they did last year with Byrd. Still, they’ll be able to improve with their top-half draft picks and if they make a few sacrifices, they can carve out enough space to get the cornerback they need. New Orleans could expand its cap room even further by effectively living for today and borrowing against their future, but that wouldn’t be the wise long-term play for this team.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

0 comments New Orleans Saints Offseason Outlook PFR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Houston Texans

By | at February 18, 2015 7:49 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. J.J. Watt, DL: $21,969,000
  2. Andre Johnson, WR: $16,144,583
  3. Johnathan Joseph, CB: $12,250,000
  4. Duane Brown, T: $9,500,000
  5. Arian Foster, RB: $8,906,250
  6. Chris Myers, C: $8,000,000
  7. Brian Cushing, LB: $7,891,250
  8. Jadeveon Clowney, OLB: $5,062,045
  9. Garrett Graham, TE: $3,921,875
  10. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB: $3,875,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 16 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

After inheriting a 2-14 team, Bill O’Brien took over the Texans and brought them right back to respectability in just one season. Most of the attention went to J.J. Watt, and deservedly so, after an astounding season that saw him receive 13 MVP votes, the most for a defensive player since Lawrence Taylor in 1986.

However, Watt didn’t lead the team to nine wins – and one Week 17 Ravens’ loss to the Connor Shaw-led Browns from a playoff spot – all by himself. Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel patched together a strong defensive season without much notable star-power on that side of the ball. The team finished seventh in scoring defense, according to ESPN, and also graded out as a top-10 defense according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Just a year ago, the unit were 24th in scoring defense and 16th per PFF. The big addition this offseason was first overall pick Jadeveon Clowney, who played in only four games and accumulated five tackles.

The offense is what really held the team back, specifically the quarterback position. The Texans had to turn Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, Tom Savage, and Case Keenum at different points during the year, which proved inconsistent at best. If the team can get an equal or better effort from the defense in 2015, consistent offense should be enough to put Houston back in the playoffs.Ryan Mallett

Key Free Agents

With the quarterback position in flux, Mallett turns into one of the more intriguing free agents on the market for the Texans. Most teams will view Mallett as an afterthought at worst, and a question mark at best, but the Texans coaching staff has a full season of practice reps to judge him on. An unfortunate injury robbed the team of more game film, but no other suitor will be more familiar with what he has to offer. O’Brien knows him particularly well, going back to his time coaching him in New England. It is difficult to project the Texans’ interest in Mallett, but what they do with him will be telling. If they don’t make a concerted effort to sign him, even to a small backup-level deal, he might have trouble finding work anywhere in the league.

Kendrick Lewis played a huge role in a surprisingly good defense in 2014, playing 1097 snaps, most on the defense. I imagine if the Texans thought they had a better option, they would have used him. While Lewis graded out positively in 2014 (subscription), he was far from a revelation. The market for his services should be diminished enough for the Texans to bring him back at a reasonable rate, but in a weak free agent class for safeties, a 26-year old talent who has proven to be durable could wind up being overpaid. Danieal Manning played about half the snaps that Lewis did, but graded out slightly better over that sample. He could stay or go on a small contract, depending on how the rest of free agency and the draft go.

Staying in the secondary, Kareem Jackson was the team’s best cornerback in 2014, surpassing Johnathan Joseph as the number one guy in the secondary. His breakout season came at the wrong time for the team, as he will be sought after heavily in what could be a weak cornerback class in both the draft and free agency. It would be difficult to justify signing Jackson to a big extension with Joseph still on the books.

Offensive tackle Derek Newton and outside linebacker Brooks Reed are both players with good track records in Houston that the team would like to have back in the fold. Both would draw interest on the open market, but the Texans would likely have an edge in bringing them back.

Akeem Dent, Jerrell Powe, and Ryan Pickett could all be back next season due to scheme familiarity, depending on what the team accomplishes in free agency and the draft.

Possible Cap Casualties

Andre Johnson is the best player in Texans history, and it isn’t even close. Drafted in the first round of Houston’s second draft, he has spent his whole career with the franchise. During that time, he put together a pretty good Hall of Fame case, currently placing himself ninth all time in receptions and 12th in receiving yards.

However, Johnson slipped dramatically in 2014, failing to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the first time since his rookie year, in a season that he was healthy and played at least 14 games. He also posted his fewest receptions in a healthy season since his second year in the league. Johnson has struggled with injuries throughout his career, missing large portions of the 2007 and 2011 seasons, as well as missing three games in 2005. The scariest part of the 2014 campaign is the tremendous dip in his yards per catch over the last two seasons. From 2007 to 2012 he averaged between 13.7 and 15.5 yards per catch, but in the last two years, he has averaged 12.9 (2013) and just 11.0 (2014). That last number tied him for 83rd in the league among qualified players.

A drop in yards per catch often signifies a loss of explosiveness, and could pose trouble for the star receiver going forward. If these two numbers prove to be anomalies, like his low averages in 2005 and 2006, that’s fine, but if they become a trend it will be hard to justify his large cap number. Set to make $21.5MM in base salary over the next two years, with cap numbers totaling over $30MM, Johson is one of the highest paid receivers in the league, according to OverTheCap.com. The team could save nearly $21MM by cutting the veteran wideout, although asking him to take a pay cut could be a more ideal option for the team.

An extension for Johnson could be another option, but the emergence of DeAndre Hopkins as the team’s number one option cuts Johnson’s leverage in contract talks.

Johnathan Joseph hasn’t been with the team nearly as long, but he was a huge part of an excellent Texans’ defense that made back-to-back playoff appearances in the 2011 and 2012 NFL seasons. Joseph signed a five-year contract as the top corner available during the 2011 offseason, and with rookie J.J. Watt, was part of a massive defensive improvement on way to the first playoff appearance and the first playoff victory in Texans’ franchise history. Joseph made the Pro Bowl during each of his first two seasons. The Texans would be in a tough spot if they lost both Jackson and Joseph, but if they can manage to bring back Jackson, they could save $8.5MM by releasing Joseph. Brian Cushing is in a similar situation as Joseph, having dealt with injuries and a decline in performance, but his guaranteed base salary would make it difficult to justify cutting him.

Texans center Chris Myers has been among the better players at his position over the last five years, and the Texans have had effective running games during the best stretch in franchise history largely because of the efforts of Myers and offensive tackle Duane Brown. Myers, like Joseph, made the Pro Bowl in 2011 and 2012. However, if the team feels comfortable it can withstand the drop in production that could come with going to a younger player, the $6MM the team would save could go a long way towards re-signing other players this offseason.

Two more interesting possibilities are Arian Foster and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Foster continues to be highly productive and effective as both a runner and receiver, but with the devaluation of running backs, a back with such a high cap number and Foster’s injury history should be on alert. Cap savings this year would be less than $4MM, unless he is designated a post-June 1st cut, but more likely it will be interesting to see what the Texans do with him next offseason as he enters the final year of his contract. For Fitzpatrick, it depends on what the Texans do at the quarterback position with the rest of the offseason. Right now, he might still be the best option for the team. However, his $3.25MM salary would make him a very highly-paid backup. If the team can find another option in the draft or free agency, it might make sense to spend that money elsewhere on the roster.

Positions Of Need

As is the case for all teams with question marks at the quarterback position, that QB spot immediately becomes the most pressing need on the team. Using four quarterbacks in a season is never a good thing, especially when the best option of the four is Fitzpatrick — even Fitzpatrick’s 17:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio was buoyed by a six-touchdown, zero-interception game against a Titans team that will be drafting second overall this season. Houston’s current options aren’t great. After Fitzpatrick, the only in-house options are the unproven Mallett and the unrefined Savage. Neither player would inspire confidence.

Of course, the options in free agency aren’t much better. Brian Hoyer and Mark Sanchez are probably the top options on the market, and if that’s the case, the team’s best option may just be to roll with Fitzpatrick again. Texans’ fans may have thought the team had a chance at Teddy Bridgewater with the top pick in the second round last spring, but the Vikings wisely traded back into the end of the first round to select him. Picking 16th this year, the Texans only options at quarterback figure to be Brett Hundley of UCLA and Bryce Petty, unless Marcus Mariota continues to tumble down big boards across the NFL. Hundley and Petty are both flawed prospects and neither represents an immediate improvement at the position. Both might go on to have full and impressive NFL careers, but if the team plans to compete in 2015 it needs a more polished and more dynamic player leading the offense.

Depending on whether or not the team is able to keep Johnson, receiver will be another position of need this offseason. Even if the team moves on from Johnson, the Texans will have trouble targeting a receiver off the top of the market such as Randall Cobb or Jeremy Maclin, but a player like Eddie Royal, Cecil Shorts, or Leonard Hankerson could be brought in on a modest contract as a second or third wide receiver. Tight end might be an even more pressing need, especially if the team decides that Garrett Graham isn’t the long-term answer at the position. The Texans would have trouble going after a very top-of-the-market veteran, but if they could make a move for a player like Jermaine Gresham or Jordan Cameron, that would constitute a huge upgrade.

The Texans got adequate performances from their interior linemen on both sides of the ball, but could stand to improve if a reasonable option presents itself. That also depends on what they decide to do with some of their current veterans, who may represent good enough options to remain with the team. The team faces the same dilemma at inside linebacker and cornerback, where the status quo might be just enough if they decide to bring those units back.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The top extension candidate for the Texans must be right guard Brandon Brooks. Brooks graded out as the eighth-best guard according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), and at a minimal salary the team would want to lock him up long term. Brooks has proven himself over two years, and with only a year left on his rookie deal, this offseason would be the best time for the Texans to extend him with leverage.

The more exciting names are the ones who already showed up in the cap casualties section. Both Johnson and Joseph could be seen as extension candidates due to their high cap numbers. Ideally, the Texans would want both to take a pay cut to stay with the team, but there could be some compromise to lower their current cap number and keep them with the team for a few more years. This applies especially to Johnson, where there would be some added value in having him retire in a Texans uniform.

The Texans also have a decision to make on the future of former first-round pick Whitney Mercilus, and with Reed and Clowney in the fold, Mercilus seems expendable. If they do want to keep him long-term, they could hang it over his head as leverage to signing an extension. If they keep Reed, they could get by even if Clowney misses additional time after an injury plagued rookie season. On the other hand, if Reed leaves in free agency, the leverage returns to Mercilus as the only experienced outside linebacker on the team.

Overall Outlook

Had the Ravens lost to the Browns in Week 17, we might be looking much differently at this Texans’ team and the job O’Brien did with it. Houston would have made it into the playoffs, and would have had a decent shot at beating a Steelers’ squad that was missing All-Pro running back Le’Veon Bell. We would have gotten to see another game or two from Watt, and perhaps a Texans playoff berth would have earned the star defender enough votes to challenge Aaron Rodgers for the MVP.

Jumping from a two-win 2013 to a nine-win 2014 would seem to make the Texans a prime candidate for regression in 2015. The best way to fight regression is always by building on a roster and by getting consistent quarterback play. The Texans can look at the division-rival Colts for proof of that — for those who dismiss that comparison because they think Andrew Luck is a superhuman, the Chiefs are a more reasonable representation. That team was able to withstand losing players such as Brandon Flowers and Eric Berry, and was able to continue winning despite serious roster flaws and obvious red flags for regression. A lot of the credit for that goes to a sound coaching job by Andy Reid, and consistent and efficient quarterback play from Alex Smith. Far from spectacular, he was good enough to keep the team in every game, and allowed a strong running game and dominant defense to shine.

If the Texans are able to bring back the best parts of their team and make a few nominal improvements, all they will need is consistent quarterback play to stay in the playoff hunt in 2015. The only question is whether or not they can find that consistency from one of the quarterbacks on the roster, in the draft, or in free agency.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Ravens

By | at February 18, 2015 7:47 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Haloti Ngata, DL: $16,000,000
  2. Joe Flacco, QB: $14,550,000
  3. Lardarius Webb, CB: $12,000,000
  4. Marshal Yanda, G: $8,450,000
  5. Eugene Monroe, T: $7,700,000
  6. Jimmy Smith, CB: $6,898,000
  7. Elvis Dumervil, OLB: $6,375,000
  8. Terrell Suggs, OLB: $6,200,000
  9. Dennis Pitta, TE: $6,200,000
  10. Steve Smith, WR: $4,166,666

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview

The Ravens suffered an agonizing loss at the hands of the eventual-champion Patriots in the divisional round of the 2014 playoffs to bring a disappointing end to an up-and-down season. Nonetheless, there is reason for optimism in Baltimore, as Joe Flacco enjoyed a career year behind an improved offensive line, and the offense as a whole made tremendous strides under offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. Although Kubiak left Baltimore to become head coach of the Broncos, the transition to the West Coast leanings of former Bears head coach and noted offensive mind Marc Trestman should be a fairly seamless one.

On the defensive side of the ball, veteran pass rushers Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs combined with young talents like C.J. Mosley, Pernell McPhee, and Brandon Williams to form an imposing front seven, and the special teams unit, buoyed by the feet of Justin Tucker and Sam Koch, enjoyed another strong year. According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, Baltimore boasted the ninth-best offense in the league, the eight-best defense, and the second-best special teams unit. Although the AFC North may again prove to be one of, if not the, toughest division in football in 2015, the Ravens should once again be neck-and-neck with the Bengals and Steelers in the fight for the division crown.

Marc Trestman (Vertical)Positions Of Need

Nonetheless, there is plenty of room for concern. The Ravens have a limited amount of cap space entering the offseason, and a big reason for that is the $9.5MM of dead money that former running back Ray Rice will count against the cap. Between Rice and Dennis Pitta, whose playing status for 2015–and for his career–is up in the air after a second major hip injury ended his season in Week 3, the Ravens will devote nearly $16MM of cap room to players who might not even play a snap next season.

Despite that, Baltimore will have to find a way to address a few significant needs. Offensively, the team once again may find itself in need of at least one wide receiver, as Torrey Smith‘s future in Baltimore is highly uncertain. Smith is far and away the best receiver the Ravens have ever drafted, as the team has struggled to groom young receiving talent and in recent years has increasingly looked to veterans like Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith Sr. to fill the void. But the former Maryland standout struggled to get into a rhythm in 2014, and despite scoring 11 touchdowns, he posted a career low in yardage (767) and tied a career low with 49 receptions.

Torrey Smith reportedly turned down a five-year, $35MM extension before the 2014 season, which appears to have been a misstep at this point. But even if he cannot match or better that deal, it is unclear whether the Ravens can afford to retain him. Trestman is particularly fond of utilizing the short and intermediate portions of the route tree, and in addition to Smith Sr., Baltimore has a number of younger players who have at least displayed the ability to thrive in those routes. Torrey Smith, meanwhile, has not grown into the complete receiver the Ravens had hoped for, as he is still seen primarily as a deep threat who struggles in other facets of the game. It is also worth noting that Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson have both been linked to Baltimore in recent weeks, and if one of them becomes available, either via release or trade, the Ravens could pounce. If they do, Torrey Smith’s days in purple and black would likely be numbered. Baltimore could then look to the draft to find some home run speed on the outside.

Tight end could pose even more of a problem for the Ravens. Owen Daniels filled in nicely for Pitta after Pitta’s season-ending hip injury, but Daniels is on the downside of his career and has struggled with injuries of his own in the past. Plus, many believe that Daniels will follow Kubiak, the only head coach he has ever played for, to Denver (particularly if the Broncos are unable to retain Julius Thomas). With Pitta’s playing career in doubt, Baltimore could look to the free agent market, where Jermaine Gresham could be an interesting fit, and release candidate Vernon Davis might become an option. Beyond that, the Ravens will pray that Pitta can make a healthy return, and they may expend an early draft pick on a player like Maxx Williams, who has drawn favorable comparisons to former Raven Todd Heap.

Although we have heard ad nauseam that running backs are becoming more and more devalued as the NFL continues to evolve into a pass-first league, the Ravens will need to replace Justin Forsett‘s production if he leaves in free agency. Forsett was a revelation in 2014, amassing 1,266 yards and eight touchdowns while sustaining a terrific 5.2 YPC average. But the former seventh-round pick might have priced himself out of Baltimore, as the Ravens cannot afford to pay a premium for a running back. If Forsett leaves, Bernard Pierce would be the logical internal option, but Pierce has dealt with injuries throughout the course of his brief career, and he was outclassed by Forsett when he did see the field in 2014. Last year’s fourth-round pick, Lorenzo Taliaferro, showed some upside as a bruiser in his rookie campaign, but the jury is still out on whether he could capably handle a full workload. Chris Johnson, who was recently released by the Jets, has been linked to Baltimore, but that seems like an unlikely marriage at this point. If the Ravens look to free agency to find a running back, a younger, high-upside player like Roy Helu would appear to be a better fit.

The Ravens boast a fairly strong defense overall, but the secondary was the team’s undoing in 2014. The unit was ravaged by injury and poor play, and its shortcomings played a major role in the Ravens’ inability to finish a near upset of New England in the playoffs. The secondary will greatly benefit just by getting healthy, as the returns of Asa Jackson and standout corner Jimmy Smith, along with the continued good health of Lardarius Webb–who struggled for much of 2014 but showed flashes of his old self down the stretch–will be instrumental in the team’s success going forward. However, the Ravens learned the hard way that you can never have enough depth in the secondary, so it would not be a surprise to see them sign at least one defensive back in free agency and draft at least one. Free agent safety Antrel Rolle and University of Washington corner Marcus Peters would be logical choices.

It would be out of character, not to mention out of the team’s price range, to pursue a high-priced free agent to fill its needs in the secondary. As such, players like Byron Maxwell and Darrelle Revis are almost certainly out of the question, but less expensive options like Rolle, Brandon Flowers, and Javier Arenas might be in play. Baltimore will also hope for growth from last year’s third-round pick Terrence Brooks and for any sign of life out of former first-rounder Matt Elam, who has done nothing to justify his lofty draft status in his two years in the league.

Key Free Agents

We’ve touched on most of the Ravens’ key free agents already. Torrey Smith, Forsett, and, to a lesser extent, Daniels, will be the primary focus of the team’s decision-makers when it comes to retaining their own players, but Baltimore does have one defensive player who will be included in that group: McPhee.

McPhee is the sort of under-the-radar, mid-round gem that GM Ozzie Newsome has been so adept at mining. The former fifth-rounder from Mississippi State is listed as an outside linebacker, but he has also demonstrated the ability to line up anywhere along the defensive line, and he is particularly skilled at getting to the quarterback from the interior of the line. He proved to be a significant part of the Ravens’ pass rush in 2014, and his departure would certainly leave a void. However, as our Zach Links wrote earlier this month, the Ravens may view McPhee as more of a complementary piece than a core player, and given his likely price tag—it would not be surprising to see him net a five-year deal worth upwards of $30MM—it seems unlikely he will be back in Baltimore. Instead, the Ravens will rely on internal options like Kapron Lewis-Moore and Brent Urban, both of whom have high upside but have yet to play a snap in their professional careers due to injury.

Will Hill and Tucker are the biggest names on the team’s restricted free agent list. Given the semblance of stability Hill brought to the Ravens’ secondary in the second half of the season, and given that Tucker has proven himself as both a highly-accurate and clutch kicker during his three years in the league, both players will doubtlessly remain in Baltimore.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

Torrey Smith and McPhee would be the most likely candidates to get the franchise tag this year, but it would be surprising for the Ravens to put the tag on either player. Smith’s regression in 2014 and McPhee’s role as a part-time player—he played only 540 defensive snaps last year—suggest that Baltimore will not absorb the cap hit that the tag for a wide receiver or outside linebacker carries.

Nonetheless, the Ravens will have a few contract issues to resolve. For instance, the team simply cannot afford the $16MM that star defensive lineman Haloti Ngata would count against the cap in 2015, and if he is not willing to restructure his contract, the Ravens would create $8.5MM of cap room by releasing him.

Although the 31-year-old Ngata is on the downside of his career, he proved in 2014 that he is still a premier defensive player, especially when part of a deep rotation of young, talented linemen. He may prefer to stay in Baltimore with the only organization he has ever known, especially since his value on the open market is likely to take a hit thanks to his age and his four-game suspension for Adderall in 2014. Furthermore, many of the teams with the most cap space, who would presumably be able to make the best offer for Ngata’s services, either project to be non-contenders or weaker contenders than Baltimore in 2015. Therefore, it would not be a surprise for him to rework his deal just as Suggs did last season, thereby allowing him to finish his career where it started and providing the Ravens with a little bit of financial breathing room.

It would also behoove the Ravens to extend blue-chip right guard Marshal Yanda, as our Luke Adams wrote last week. Yanda carries an $8.45MM cap number for 2015, so an extension would allow the Ravens to lessen that hit while securing Yanda’s top-flight services for perhaps the rest of his career.

Webb, meanwhile, presents an interesting case. The 29-year-old corner has battled injuries throughout his career, including two torn ACLs and back problems that plagued him throughout much of 2014. But as indicated above, Webb played much better as 2014 went along, and although the Ravens cannot afford his $12MM cap number, they also cannot afford to let a quality defensive back leave. Releasing Webb would create just $2MM of cap space and $10MM of dead money, and Webb does not appear to be the type of player to play “hardball” with his team, so it seems as though the two sides are headed for their second restructure in as many seasons.

The Ravens may also look to extend Jimmy Smith, whose value as a shutdown corner was underscored by his absence after he suffered a season-ending sprained foot in Baltimore’s Week 8 matchup against Cincinnati. Smith is entering the final year of his rookie contract.

As far as releases are concerned, Chris Canty is probably on his way out, and even longtime punter Koch, who carries a $3MM+ cap number, has been discussed as a potential cap casualty. Jacoby Jones, who continued to perform well as a kick returner, saw his stock as a receiver take a serious hit in 2014 as his struggles catching the football resurfaced in a big way. His 2015 cap number of $3.38MM therefore may be too much for the Ravens, who could create $2.5MM of savings if they make Jones a post-June 1 release. If they let Jones go, Asa Jackson or Michael Campanaro would likely get the first crack at return duties. However, Jones, like Koch, has good odds of being back next season, as the cap space created by releasing them may not outweigh the benefits of keeping them on the roster.

Overall Outlook

Even after the expected restructures and releases, the Ravens are not likely to have a ton of cap space to be big spenders in the free agent market. But then again, they never are. Newsome prefers to avoid the first wave of free agency, instead waiting for release candidates from other clubs to become available while collecting a bevy of compensatory picks when his own free agents cash in elsewhere. That approach allows him to continue developing talent through the draft, where he has, with a few exceptions, generally excelled.

Every prediction comes with the obvious caveat of “as long as no one gets hurt.” With that in mind, the Ravens can reasonably expect to be contenders in 2015. The healthy return of a few key pieces in the secondary, along with some much-needed reinforcements in that unit, should complete an already-talented defense. McPhee’s likely departure will sting, but the Ravens have always managed to find talent in the front seven, so I would not expect too much of a drop-off there in 2015, especially if the team can find a way to keep Ngata in the fold.

Offensively, as much as the Ravens like Torrey Smith, he is replaceable. If Smith is not retained, players like Brandon Marshall or Vincent Jackson would become options and would represent upgrades. At tight end, the Ravens currently have little depth behind Pitta, as Crockett Gillmore is seen as a blocking tight end who has shown good hands but who projects as more of a secondary receiving option than a primary target. Baltimore will almost be forced to address that position in free agency or with an early draft choice, and Gresham still has intriguing upside despite not living up to his potential in Cincinnati.

There is also reason to believe that the zone-blocking scheme that turned Forsett into a Pro Bowl player would do the same for any number of backs. As such, if he does not return on a fairly team-friendly deal, I would not expect much panic in Baltimore. I do expect, though, that the team will be fairly strong in 2015, with Trestman at the helm of an offense on the upswing, a strong defensive foundation in place, and an AFC North title well within reach.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

0 comments Baltimore Ravens Offseason Outlook PFR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Washington

By | at February 17, 2015 5:43 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Trent Williams, T: $13,730,393
  2. Pierre Garcon, WR: $9,700,000
  3. DeSean Jackson, WR: $9,250,000
  4. Stephen Bowen, DL: $8,020,000
  5. Barry Cofield, DT: $7,677,500
  6. Ryan Kerrigan, OLB: $7,038,000
  7. Robert Griffin III, QB: $6,719,713
  8. Jason Hatcher, DL: $5,250,000
  9. DeAngelo Hall, CB: $4,812,500
  10. Chris Chester, G: $4,800,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 5 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

In January of 2014, Washington hired Jay Gruden to be the team’s next head coach after Mike Shanahan was let go. Almost a year later, many wondered if he’d get a second season. Ultimately, Gruden was assured his job after a convincing Week 16 victory over the Eagles. The same can’t be said for everyone else in the organization, however.

Longtime GM Bruce Allen was removed from his post in favor of Scot McCloughan, a seasoned executive with many years of scouting experience. For a team that hasn’t always nailed it in the draft, McCloughan’s arrival could prove to be a game changer. Meanwhile, Joe Barry was brought aboard as the team’s new defensive coordinator to replace Jim Haslett. Barry was Washington’s first choice — sort of. The club went hard after the Chargers linebackers coach, then changed direction sharply once 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio became available. Once things failed to shake out with Fangio, Washington circled back to Barry and got its original No. 1 pick.

Positions Of Need

Washington’s top priority will probably be to address the two starting safety spots. Last season, the club’s safeties were repeatedly burned deep and opposing offenses seemed to have little trouble with blowing the lid off of the coverage. The team primarily relied on Ryan Clark and Brandon Meriweather in 2014. To say that the duo disappointed would be an understatement. Meriweather was rated as the No. 60 safety in the league by Pro Football Focus (subscription required and recommended), while Clark was dead last among the qualified players at the position at No. 87. Meriweather’s -2.1 overall score indicated that he was merely below average. Clark’s -20.7 rating pegged him as being downright atrocious.

If Washington moves on from both safeties, the team could theoretically fill one hole with Phillip Thomas. Thomas was was a fourth-round pick in 2013 but has seen limited playing time thanks to injuries and time on the club’s taxi squad. However, he started four games to close out the 2014 season and he could be in the mix for a starting job, provided that he isn’t too green for it.

Still, Washington can be expected to go out of house for at least one of those roles. In a perfect world, the team would back up a Brinks truck for someone like Devin McCourty this offseason. In the real world, the front office will probably aim a little lower if they turn to free agency. Jeron Johnson, who is scheduled to hit the open market one year after he signed a restricted free agent tender with the Seahawks, could be one potential target. New GM McCloughan was in Seattle’s scouting department when Johnson was first signed as a UDFA, so there’s a definite connection there. Rahim Moore, who just turned 25 last week, is one of the Broncos’ many free agents (unrestricted) and could be another possibility. In the draft, Landon Collins could be on the radar when it’s Washington’s turn at No. 5.

Ryan Kerrigan had a breakout year for Washington last season but Brian Orakpo wasn’t able to deliver an encore of his 2013 performance on the other side. While Kerrigan impressed with 51 tackles, 13.5 sacks, and 5 forced fumbles, the team’s pass rush as a whole left much to be desired. When Washington made Orakpo its highest-paid player with an $11.455MM deal (off of the franchise tender), the club had much higher hopes for him than an injury-riddled year that would be cut short by Week 7. The young Trent Murphy did the best he could in a starting role, but he likely won’t be asked to start again in 2015. With so many question marks surrounding Orakpo (a pending free agent), you can expect Washington to at least explore outside linebackers in free agency and possibly in the draft.

The offensive line will also be pretty high on the list of priorities for McCloughan & Co., as NFL Network’s Mike Mayock recently detailed in a conference call wtih reporters, including CSNWashington.com’s Tarik El-Bashir.

“Remember Scot McCloughan is in charge of the draft,” Mayock said. “His background tells you he’s a big-bodied guy. Offensive line and defensive line—big, strong guys. So where could they go [at No. 5 overall]? I think offensive line needs help. How they evaluate Morgan Moses and Spencer Long, who are both third-round picks from a year ago, is going to be important.”

Specifically, Mayock posited that there will be a need at right guard regardless of Long’s development as he enters his sophomore year. Mayock opined that at 32, Chris Chester‘s best football is behind him, necessitating a change. The metrics at Pro Football Focus seem to agree: Chester ranked as the No. 47 guard out of 81 qualified players at the position in 2014.

Key Free Agents

Last offseason, Washington decided that it wanted to see more out of Orakpo before making a lengthy and lucrative commitment. After seeing just seven weeks of regular season action from the veteran, it appears that the team made a smart choice. Now, the club has another difficult decision on its hands. Orakpo is eligible to hit the open market once again and, despite the uncertainty, he remains one of the most talented players at his position when he’s healthy. Using the tag on Orakpo again would be an option, theoretically, but that seems unlikely, as our own Luke Adams recently wrote. Time isn’t necessarily on Orakpo’s side as he approaches age 29 and, therefore, he’ll probably prioritize the best payday available to him. All things considered, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Washington let him go elsewhere.

In his five games (four starts) in 2014, quarterback Colt McCoy posted respectable numbers, completing 71.1% of his passes for 1,057 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. Now, he’ll likely be looking for a pay raise as he approaches the open market. Assuming Washington sticks with Robert Griffin III under center (and even if they don’t), the organization has learned the value of having a quality No. 2 signal caller on the depth chart. Another team could certainly outbid Washington, but with plenty of breathing room under the cap, it would make sense for the club that drafted RGIII in 2012 to retain the University of Texas product.

Speaking of valuable understudies, tight end Niles Paul became quite an important player in Washington’s passing game last season. With Jordan Reed struggling through injuries, Paul filled in capably and posted some impressive stat lines, particularly in the early going. Paul may be a bit undersized for the position at 6’1″, but you can expect teams to circle the wagons around him regardless if he hits the open market.

On defense, it’s a little tricky to get a read on the aforementioned safety situation. After turning in a year that disappointing by any measure, Clark probably won’t be welcomed back. Meriweather, on the other hand, could be a consideration depending on how things break in the secondary.

Longtime Washington back Roy Helu could wind up elsewhere to infuriate fantasy owners everywhere. Veteran Santana Moss, who has been a huge part of the organization for years, is determined to continue playing but he could be donning colors besides burgundy and gold for the first time since 2004.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

As we detailed earlier, the offensive line is definitely an area of importance for Washington. With that in mind, the club could seek to work out an extension with tackle Trent Williams. Injuries and all, Williams figures to be a sought-after commodity after the 2015 season when he’s eligible to hit the open market. A new deal won’t be cheap, but it’s also not easy to replace a young, dominant tackle like Williams, who turns 27 in July.

The team has to decide by May 3rd whether to extend RGIII through the 2016 season. Not long ago, that seemed like an absolute no-brainer of a move. Now? – That’s a dilly of a pickle, as longtime NFL aficionado Ned Flanders would say. Last season, the one-time face of the franchise was benched in favor of McCoy and only regained his starting gig when he was placed on IR. Despite his adamant public statements to the contrary, it’s widely believed that Coach Gruden is not a huge fan of RGIII. Rather than pick up the costly option, owner Dan Snyder might be okay with rolling the dice on Griffin in ’15. Of course, if Snyder does not subscribe to the idea of the sunk cost fallacy, he might have a hard time doing that after Washington gave up a fortune to draft the young signal-caller just a few years ago.

Running back Alfred Morris, earning a pittance of a salary, is entering his walk year and could certainly be an extension candidate. Kerrigan, coming off of a breakout season, will earn a $7.038MM salary in 2015 after the team exercised his fifth-year option in May of last year. Of course, as a former first-round pick, it wasn’t a total shock to see him put everything together at this stage of his career. Washington has watched Kerrigan bust his behind each and every season and that should give them confidence that he’ll continue to trend upward.

Overall Outlook

After a 4-12 season, no one will accuse 2014’s NFC East cellar-dwellers of looking like world beaters. Still, in a division that looks relatively wide open, there’s no reason why Washington can’t get back on the right path in 2015. Armed with a host of high draft picks and a healthy amount of cap space, the team could be poised to pull off an impressive turnaround with the right offseason moves.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

4 comments Offseason Outlook PFR Originals Washington Commanders

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Bengals

By | at February 15, 2015 3:40 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. A.J. Green, WR: $10,176,000
  2. Leon Hall, CB: $9,600,000
  3. Andy Dalton, QB: $9,600,000
  4. Geno Atkins, DT: $9,000,000
  5. Andre Smith, T: $6,362,500
  6. Andrew Whitworth, T: $6,200,000
  7. Vontaze Burfict, LB: $5,175,000
  8. Carlos Dunlap, DE: $4,900,000
  9. Reggie Nelson, S: $4,775,000
  10. Domata Peko, DT: $3,700,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 21 overall pick
  • No traded draft picks

Other:

Overview

For the fourth straight season, the Bengals, head coach Marvin Lewis, and quarterback Andy Dalton finished better than .500 and earned a postseason berth. And for the fourth straight season, Cincinnati was eliminated in the wild card round, this time via a 26-10 loss to Andrew Luck and the Colts. As such, it’s hard to qualify the 2014 Bengals season as either a success or a failure — instead, Cincinnati seems to be stuck in some kind of middle ground, good enough to have a high floor, but flawed enough that they’ll never reach a higher ceiling.A.J. Green

Under new coordinator Hue Jackson, the Bengals’ offense never really took off — although the freshly-extended Dalton completed a career-high 64.2% of his passes, he still threw 17 interceptions against just 19 touchdowns, finishing as the 21st-best QB in the league per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In his defense, Dalton didn’t have many options to throw to, as Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert combined to appear in one game, while A.J. Green, Jermaine Gresham, and Giovani Bernard missed significant time dealing with their own injuries. While rookie running back Jeremy Hill was a bright spot, rushing for more than 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns, the offense was below-average as a whole, finishing 21st in DVOA.

The more surprising regression occurred on defense, where the Paul Guenther-led unit fell from the No. 5 DVOA ranking in 2013 to 14th last season. Some of that fall could be attributed to the loss of former DC Mike Zimmer, who took the Vikings’ head coaching job, but injuries also plagued the defense. Star linebacker Vontaze Burfict dealt with numerous ailments throughout the year, and ultimately played in just five games. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins, dominant until tearing his ACL in 2013, never looked fully healthy. The unit also failed to generate any sort of pass rush, finishing last in the league with just 20 sacks.

Key Free Agents

The Bengals’ crop of pending free agents is primarily made up of role players, but there are three FAs who have been significant factors in recent years. Tight end Jermaine Gresham, a first-round selection in 2010, caught 62 passes for 460 yards and five touchdowns last year, but wasn’t a great blocker in either the pass or the run game. Reports at the end of the season indicated that teammates were upset with Gresham’s inability to play through pain, and while that might not factor into Cincinnati’s thinking, it doesn’t help his chances of being re-signed. He’s never been a great fit for the Cincinnati offense, and given that Eifert will look to take on a larger role in 2015, Gresham probably won’t return.

On the other hand, guard Clint Boling should be retained, as he’s started 44 games during the past three seasons, becoming a key cog on an excellent offensive line. The 2011 fourth-round pick finished as PFF’s No. 19 overall guard among 81 qualifiers, especially excelling in the run game. The Bengals tend to re-sign their own contributors who perform well, so Boling should be brought back on a multi-year pact, probably on a ~$4MM salary.

Linebacker Rey Maualuga is the third key free agent on the Bengals’ to-do list this offseason. He’s been consistently average during his career — nothing more, nothing less. But he’s solid against the run, knows the scheme after starting 84 games during his career, and has the ability to fill in at middle linebacker if Burfict is out. The 28-year-old might be allowed to test the market, but if he doesn’t find a deal in free agency, he’ll likely be back in the Queen City on a one-year deal.

Terence Newman‘s role had been diminished by the end of the season, and the 36-year-old would probably have to accept a role as the No. 4 CB to return in 2015. Marshall Newhouse struggled mightily while filling in for Andre Smith at right tackle, so much so that veteran Eric Winston was brought near the end of the year — the latter could be retained, but the former won’t be. Jason Campbell could be re-signed to compete with A.J. McCarron for the backup quarterback job, but receiver Brandon Tate will probably be let go as the Bengals search for a more dynamic return man.

Possible Cap Casualties

Two defensive line mainstays — Domata Peko and Robert Geathers — are overwhelmingly likely to be released in the coming weeks. The 30-year-old Peko started all 16 games in 2014 but was extremely ineffective, finishing as the second-worst defensive tackle in the league per PFF. Due to count $3.7MM against the cap next year, Peko won’t leave any dead money on the Bengal’s books when he’s cut. Geathers, meanwhile, has become nothing more than a rotational lineman after spending 11 years in Cincinnati, and the team will save $3.05MM by cutting him.

Receiver Greg Little will also probably be cut, but his release will save the Bengals just $745K. Cincinnati has managed its cap well in recent years, so there aren’t many veteran contracts that need to be dealt with to create financial space. Moreover, the club already has more than $34MM in projected cap space to work with, so cutting role players to save a few dollars wouldn’t move the needle much.

Positions Of Need

The Bengals do have several positions where an infusion of talent via free agent additions could be helpful, but a disclaimer must be noted. Like the Packers in the NFC, Cincinnati simply doesn’t spend on free agents, no matter how much cap space it has. In the late 2000s, the Bengals signed one major free agent per season: Antwan Odom in ’08, Laveranues Coles in ’09, and Antonio Bryant in ’10. Each of those signees was a major bust, and the Bengals have retreated from the open market ever since. They added role players like Nate Clements (2011) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (2012), signed no free agents until late April in 2013, and added only veteran depth in the form of Newhouse and Danieal Manning prior to 2014.

This could be the year for the Bengals to dip their toe into free agency, however — armed with the aforementioned $34.63MM of cap space, Cincinnati could take advantage of a free agent class that is well-stocked with players at its positions of need. First and foremost is pass-rusher, where the Bengals need a viable starter to line up opposite Carlos Dunlap. Greg Hardy could be the perfect fit for the club’s 4-3 defense, and the Bengals have shown a willingness to deal with players with off-the-field issues in the past. The Panthers haven’t shown any interest in retaining Hardy, and even though charges against him were recently dismissed, he could face a depressed market due to his baggage. Jason Pierre-Paul, Jerry Hughes, and Brandon Graham could also present options at defensive end, but each will likely require a long-term deal with a hefty guarantee. More likely, Cincinnati will go bargain-hunting, meaning players like Derrick Morgan, Adrian Clayborn, or even Dwight Freeney could be on the table.

Help along the interior defensive line could be just as key to generating a pass rush, and if Peko and Geathers both go, defensive tackle could another area to target in free agency. Cincinnati won’t be players for the top DTs available like Ndamukong Suh, Terrance Knighton, or Nick Fairley. But someone like Henry Melton, who recently had his option declined by the Cowboys, could be a fit for the Bengals, as could Lions FA C.J. Mosley, who finished as the No. 26 DT per PFF after filling in for an injured Fairley.

Next up on Cincinnati’s to-do list should be tight end, where Gresham will likely leave via free agency, and Eifert will be question mark heading into his third season. ESPN.com’s Coley Harvey has pushed the idea of the Bengals signing Jordan Cameron, who would add a different dimension to Cincinnati’s offense. I like the fit, but Cincy probably won’t commit to a player with such injury history unless it’s on a one-year deal. I think Charles Clay would make some sense for the Bengals, but he would offer production similar to what the team hopes they can get from Eifert. More likely, the Bengals will add a strong blocking TE to replace Gresham, so Virgil Green or Matt Spaeth could be options.

The Bengals could also look to make an addition at either wide receiver or offensive tackle. At receiver, the team is stocked with a lot of talent in Green, Jones, and Mohamed Sanu, but as was clear when injuries struck last season, there isn’t much in the way of depth. None of the big-name pass-catcher make sense given that the club will likely be paying Green a large salary in due time, but reserves like Eddie Royal, Vincent Brown, or Leonard Hankerson could be intriguing adds. Along the front five, Harvey wrote yesterday that Winston will likely be back as the swing tackle, but if the Bengals want someone who can play the interior as well, a veteran such as Adam Snyder or Gabe Carimi could be in the cards.

I also expect the Bengals to make additions to shore up the linebacking corps, especially in the wake of Burfict’s lost 2014. Maualuga could be re-signed, but I’d guess the rest of the LB reinforcements will come through the draft.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The single most pressing issue on the Bengals’ table is the contract status of Green. Cincinnati exercised his fifth-year option for 2015, so the 26-year-old will play under a one-year, $10.176MM deal. As Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently outlined, the Bengals could conceivably slap the franchise tag on Green in 2016 for a cost of ~$14MM, and then do so again in 2017 for approximately $16MM. Obviously, this isn’t the ideal situation, as the cap hits would be high, and Green would presumably be disgruntled. A long-term extension that pays Green like a true No. 1 receiver ($12-14MM AAV) would be best for both sides, but Green’s reps probably want to wait and see if Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas are able to reach free agency and break the bank, therefore setting a baseline for contract talks.

The Bengals have another crop of players under contract only through 2015, such as tackles Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith and safeties George Iloka and Reggie Nelson. Whitworth will probably retire as a Bengal, so a deal to secure that future is in order, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Cincinnati lets Smith walk. Both safeties should garner new contracts, but I’d expect Iloka, who was quietly the 12th-best safety in the league per PFF, to be the priority.

Cincinnati will also have to decide on a pair of fifth-year options, as 2012 first-rounders Kevin Zeitler and Dre Kirkpatrick near the end of their rookie deals. Zeitler is a no-brainer to be exercised, as he’s been nothing but solid at right guard; he’s another candidate for a long-term extension. Kirkpatrick is more complicated — he played well late last season, but contributed next to nothing during his first two years in the league. The Bengals would love to have another season by which to gauge the 25-year-old corner, but as they don’t have that luxury, I’d guess they pick up his option and hope for the best.

Overall Outlook

To say the least, 2015 is an absolutely crucial season for the Bengals. If the club fails to win playoff game (or misses the postseason altogether), I’d expect owner Mike Brown & Co. to take a serious look at “blowing things up.” Lewis likely won’t stick around if the team loses in the first round once again, and even Dalton’s future would be uncertain, as 2016 marks the first year in which Cincinnati could release its quarterback and save money against the cap. For now, the Bengals need to lock up its star pass-catcher in Green, and look into long-term deals with the rest of its young core. As I noted, Cincinnati never plays the free agency game, but with so much on the line, it’s fair to wonder if this is the offseason where the Bengals spend some money on the open market.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

0 comments Cincinnati Bengals Offseason Outlook PFR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Buffalo Bills

By | at February 15, 2015 1:15 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Mario Williams, DE: $19,400,000
  2. Marcell Dareus, DT: $8,060,000
  3. Eric Wood, C: $6,650,000
  4. Kyle Williams, DT: $6,400,000
  5. Leodis McKelvin, CB: $4,900,000
  6. Sammy Watkins, WR: $4,530,819
  7. Corey Graham, CB: $4,450,000
  8. Aaron Williams, S: $3,900,000
  9. Stephon Gilmore, CB: $3,844,957
  10. Kraig Urbik, G: $3,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

The Bills made strides in 2014, amassing their first nine-win output in a decade, but they extended their playoff drought to an NFL-worst 15 years and went another season with a subpar offense and no solution at quarterback.

Buffalo finished above .500 and placed second in the AFC East almost solely on the strength of its defense, which led the league in sacks (54) and was top five in turnovers, points allowed and yardage surrendered. That helped lead to a second overall mark in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings.

Conversely, the Bills’ offense ended up toward the bottom half of the league in points (18th), yards (26th) and DVOA (26th). The unit was neither strong through the air nor on the ground, with journeyman quarterback Kyle Orton and a cadre of running backs producing to underwhelming degrees behind a porous line.Rex Ryan (Featured)

Coaching Changes:

The Bills’ offseason began in entropic fashion with the abrupt departure of head coach Doug Marrone, who went 15-17 in Buffalo in his two years there and then took advantage of a $4 million opt-out clause in his contract. That forced the Bills, led by new owners Terry and Kim Pegula, along with general manager Doug Whaley, to undertake their sixth head coaching search since 2000. After an arduous interview process, the Bills hired Rex Ryan, who coached the division-rival Jets from 2009-14 and went 46-50 with two playoff appearances.

Ryan’s first order of business was to replace Marrone’s much-maligned offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett. Ryan opted for Greg Roman, who held the same position with the 49ers from 2011-14. He then appointed Dennis Thurman to take over a defense that Jim Schwartz ran with great effectiveness last year. Thurman was on Ryan’s staff in New York during Ryan’s entire tenure with the Jets, and Thurman held the D-coordinator position there the previous two campaigns.

The defensive-minded Ryan and his cohort Thurman should acquit themselves well atop one of the league’s most talented stop units. Roman, however, will have his work cut out for him to improve an offense that has been mostly woeful the last decade and a half, and was the primary reason the Bills missed the postseason in 2014.

Positions Of Need:

Not surprisingly, the Bills’ biggest weaknesses lie on offense. Their main source of trouble is under center. Orton unexpectedly retired after the season, which means two-year veteran E.J. Manuel is currently the Bills’ No. 1 QB by default. Manuel, whom the Bills chose 16th overall in the 2013 draft, has disappointed so far and the team is expected to at least seek competition for him this offseason. The problem is that capable competition could be difficult to find.

Mark Sanchez is the preeminent free agent QB available, and he was Ryan’s starter in New York throughout the majority of the duo’s time there. However, the ex-USC star’s half-decade with the Jets was riddled with ignominy. The 28-year-old experienced mild success with the Eagles last season as Nick Foles‘ backup, but Sanchez’s history suggests he’s a poor starter. He and Ryan still have an amicable relationship, though, and when you combine that with the Bills’ dire QB situation, there’s a chance the two could reunite. Furthering the possibility is that the rest of the free agent class is even less appealing than Sanchez (Brian Hoyer, Jake Locker and Josh McCown lead the way), the Bills don’t have a first-round pick to find another signal-caller, and the trade market isn’t expected to bear much fruit.

Regardless of the path the Bills take at QB, it’s imperative they ameliorate an offensive line that was near the bottom last season. Pro Football Focus ranked the Bills’ O-line 30th overall in 2014, with particularly lousy grades going to right side starters Erik Pears (guard) and Seantrel Henderson (tackle). Left tackle Cordy Glenn and center Eric Wood will keep their jobs, and the newly-signed, controversial Richie Incognito is expected to take the reins at one of the guard spots adjacent to Wood. That still leaves two areas of clear concern (LG or RG and RT). The 49ers’ Mike Iupati will be the premier free agent guard available, and he’s surely familiar with Roman from the pair’s time in San Francisco. It would make sense for the Bills to court Iupati (or Orlando Franklin or Clint Boling, to name a couple more) and one of the right tackle upgrades set to hit the market, including Bryan Bulaga, Doug Free and Joe Barksdale.

Fixing the holes along the line will help Buffalo’s rushing attack, which finished 25th in the league in yardage last year, but there’s a chance that next season’s starting running back isn’t even on the roster. Although Fred Jackson has been a reliable producer for the Bills since 2007, he’s coming off the worst rushing season of his eight-year career and will turn 34 later this month. Jackson is the oldest back in the league and probably shouldn’t be viewed as any kind of a solution at this point. The same lack of confidence is applicable to teammates Anthony Dixon, who’s a short-yardage specialist and an adept special teamer, and Bryce Brown, who failed to impress in his first season with the Bills after they acquired him from the Eagles.

Whether the Bills go with some combination of Jackson, Dixon and Brown in 2015, try to re-sign free agent-to-be C.J. Spiller (who, like Jackson, is coming off his worst season) or bring in an outsider, they’re going to have to establish a running game. That’s something Ryan’s Jets and Roman’s 49ers did throughout their respective tenures, and, given the Bills’ imperfect QB situation, it’s something they’ll have to achieve again for Buffalo to have a playoff shot next season.

Defensively, the Bills’ needs are much less serious, although their No. 1 free agent – end Jerry Hughes – resides on that side of the ball. Hughes has accumulated 19.5 sacks during his two years as a Bill and has been an excellent complement to his fellow starting linemen, Pro Bowlers Mario Williams, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus. Whaley has expressed interest in re-signing Hughes, according to the team’s official website, but there’s a chance Buffalo is averse to breaking the bank on him when it already has three outstanding D-linemen and various other positions to address. What’s more, the price to franchise tag Hughes will be steep (upward of $14MM, perhaps), and our own Luke Adams doesn’t expect the Bills to apply the tag to Hughes

If the Bills do sign a noteworthy defender and it’s not Hughes, two of Ryan’s ex-players are obvious candidates.

The first is Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis. The 29-year-old spent four seasons under Ryan as a Jet, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted earlier this month that Ryan will try to lure Revis to Buffalo if he hits free agency. However, the Bills already have three able corners in Stephon Gilmore, Leodis McKelvin and Corey Graham. That trio helped the Bills’ defense finish last season ranked third overall in passing yardage allowed and sixth in interceptions. Revis is on another level than Gilmore, McKelvin and Graham, to be sure. Nevertheless, one has to wonder if he’s worth a mega-deal to a team that’s already sturdy against the pass – especially a team with so many offensive issues in need of attention.

The Bills could also explore signing linebacker David Harris, an eight-year Jet whom Ryan called “the most underrated player in the league” last June. Harris then proceeded to play a staggering 99% of defensive snaps for Ryan a season ago. With Ryan being a 3-4-oriented coach, the Bills will need another LB to join entrenched starters Kiko Alonso, Preston Brown and Nigel Bradham. It’s feasible, therefore, to imagine Ryan and Harris transferring their partnership from New York to Buffalo.

Key Free Agents:

The Bills are likely to lose some parts of last year’s defense to free agency. Hughes and two other starters (middle linebacker Brandon Spikes and strong safety Da’Norris Searcy) could end up on the market.

Spikes is known as a gifted run stopper who has difficulty against the pass, which explains why he played just 46.4% of Buffalo’s defensive snaps last season. Whether Spikes returns to Buffalo may depend on whether Ryan wants him to. Signing Harris would seal Spikes’ fate with the Bills and send him looking for work elsewhere.

Searcy had a respectable ’14, playing nearly 60% of snaps with 13 starts, 65 tackles and three interceptions. However, the Bills might view Searcy as expendable and save cap space by letting him walk and plugging in Duke Williams, who played almost half the team’s defensive snaps as a second-year man.

Offensively, aside from the aforementioned Spiller, the Bills aren’t in danger of losing anyone that recognizable. The team will surely move on from Pears after his dreadful season. Of more importance is the future of wide receiver Marcus Easley, a standout special teamer who helped the Bills finish top five in both kickoff and punt return yardage allowed last year. Easley’s play earned him a place on Pro Football Focus’ 2014 All-Pro special teams unit.

Possible Cap Casualties:

If the Bills cut guard Kraig Urbik, they’ll save $2.35MM on next season’s cap. That could happen, ESPN’s Mike Rodak tweeted recently. Another potential cap casualty is linebacker Keith Rivers, who played just 17.1% of defensive snaps last season. Releasing him by June 1 would give the Bills an extra $1.7MM of cap room.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions:

The Bills are conceivably a year from losing Dareus to free agency. The 331-pounder has emerged as a top-tier D-lineman since the Bills drafted him third overall in 2011. Over the last two years, Dareus has accrued 17.5 total sacks (including a career-best 10 last season), a pair of Pro Bowl bids and a First-Team All-Pro selection. He’ll make just over $8MM in the final year of his contract, and to retain him beyond then will cost the Bills a lot more. Dareus could be in line for a contract similar to the one the Buccaneers gave Gerald McCoy last October. McCoy signed a seven-year, $98MM pact with over $51MM in guarantees, the richest ever awarded to a D-tackle. When he signed, McCoy was a 26-year-old with two Pro Bowl nods and two All-Pro selections to his name. Dareus is of similar age (25 next month) and, like McCoy, highly accomplished.

Unfortunately for the Bills, Dareus isn’t their only impact lineman whose team-controlled status is nearing an end. Glenn, perhaps Buffalo’s foremost O-lineman, is also a season from free agency. Glenn was a bright spot on an abysmal line last season, according to Pro Football Focus – which gave him a positive rating – and has been both good and durable during his three-year career. The 25-year-old has appeared in 45 of a possible 48 regular-season games and started in all 45 of those contests. Glenn is not on Dareus’ level as a player and won’t be as expensive to retain, but the Bills aren’t in any position to let their young, effective left tackle depart anytime soon.

Along with Dareus and Glenn, Bradham is another up-and-comer on the Bills who’s closing in on free agency. Bradham is fresh off a breakout 2014 effort that saw him eclipse the 100-tackle plateau (104, to be exact) to go with 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception. As a result, Pro Football Focus named the ex-Florida State Seminole a reserve on its Pro Bowl team. Although Bradham, 25, is likely to be the least costly of the trio he makes up with Dareus and Glenn, he’s still a meaningful piece and his departure would hurt the Bills.

Less pressing than the statuses of Dareus, Glenn and Bradham is that of Gilmore. The Bills will have to decide by this May whether to pick up his fifth-year option for 2016. That option is the value of the highest-paid 25 players at the cornerback position, excluding the top three players. Barring something unforeseen, the team will likely exercise Gilmore’s option and keep its top corner in the fold for at least two more seasons.

Overall Outlook:

The bad news for Buffalo is that it’s unlikely to find anything resembling an answer at quarterback this offseason. That means a position that has vexed the Bills since Hall of Famer Jim Kelly retired in 1996 is likely to continue tormenting them in 2015. The good news is that the Bills are an above-average team with an above-average amount of cap room. If the Bills use that cap room shrewdly to augment the talent around their flawed QB (be it Manuel or someone else), and if Ryan and his staff prove superior to their predecessors, they could push for a playoff spot in 2015.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Eagles

By | at February 14, 2015 9:31 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. LeSean McCoy, RB: $11,950,000
  2. Trent Cole, OLB: $11,625,000
  3. Jason Peters, T: $9,050,000
  4. Cary Williams, CB: $8,166,668
  5. Connor Barwin, OLB: $7,000,000
  6. DeMeco Ryans, LB: $6,900,000
  7. Evan Mathis, G: $6,500,000
  8. Malcolm Jenkins, S: $5,666,666
  9. Lane Johnson, T: $5,414,483
  10. Todd Herremans, OL: $5,200,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • Chip Kelly awarded final say over all draft, roster decisions.

Draft:

  • No. 20 overall pick
  • Acquired a fourth-round pick from the 49ers (via the Bills) for Bryce Brown.

Other:

Overview

The Eagles are coming off a painful end to the season in which they finished 1-3 in their final four games, ending up with a 10-6 record and narrowly missing the playoffs after having control of the NFC East for most of the year. Those four losses all came with Mark Sanchez at the helm, after the team lost Nick Foles to a broken clavicle in early November, an injury that prematurely ended the starting quarterback’s season. While Sanchez had his moments and performed better than many backups would have fared, he was unable to keep the lead he was handed in the divisional race.

Jeremy MaclinChip Kelly‘s vaunted offensive attack was unable to hit the same marks it did in his first season as the head coach, when Foles became a dark horse MVP candidate behind his 27 touchdown to only two interceptions. The Eagles were able to move the ball behind a dangerous ground attack with LeSean McCoy and a superb offensive line.

This past season, however, the offensive line dealt with injuries and suspensions, and was never able to line up its best five guys and really get a flow running the football. McCoy still ran his way into the Pro Bowl, but Eagles fans saw it as a slow burn instead of the highlight reel on loop that it had been in 2013.

One of last year’s best trades brought in Darren Sproles, who did provide some spark to both the offense and the special teams units. The Eagles’ struggles on offense were mitigated by touchdowns by the defense and special teams, but all those wins without a playoff appearance could keep the team from drafting the one player it might need the most in order to take the next step into a Super Bowl contender.

Transfer of Power

Since the regular season ended, the biggest story surrounding the Eagles has been the club’s front office shakeup. Kelly has been given a more authoritative role over the roster, while former general manager Howie Roseman has reportedly maintained control over contract negotiations and cap management. So far, this new setup has created more confusion than anything.

The new power structure will ensure that Kelly will be able to have more of an imprint on the on-the-field product. Without anyone to answer to, he will be able to pursue players to fit his system through the draft and free agency, with less push-back or resistance from his front office.

Kelly has already made a habit of adding former Oregon Ducks to his Eagles’ roster, but with full control it would be difficult to imagine someone with vision for the team such as Kelly’s not immediately pushing this roster forward, especially on offense, in order to run the offense exactly the way he wants.

Quarterback Situation

The first thing the Eagles need to address is their quarterback position. Nick Foles was sensational in 2013, but the combination of him and Sanchez this past year was adequate at best. Kelly is not running a defense-first team that can survive inconsistent quarterback play, so that will have to improve going forward.

Sanchez faded down the stretch, likely putting him out of the running for the job. The seemingly obvious solution would be to move forward with Foles, and chalk up a failed 2014 campaign to his injury. That would be a dangerous presumption. Foles turned the ball over 13 times in eight games, and struggled moving the football down the field. He also graded out extremely poorly according to Pro Football Focus, coming up behind the likes of Charlie Whitehurst, Zach Mettenberger, Mike Glennon, and Kirk Cousins (subscription required).

Of course, the top free agent passer is generally considered to be either Sanchez or Brian Hoyer. Sanchez performed worse than Foles, and doesn’t have a recent Pro Bowl season to his name, and Hoyer graded out considerably worse than Foles — the Browns signal-caller was among the worst in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

The wild card here is the NFL Draft, where Jameis Winston is ascending as the likely number one overall pick. The quarterback he passed to get there is former Oregon Duck Marcus Mariota, who is watching his stock slip a little as the weeks go by.

The Jets are currently slated to take Mariota with the sixth pick, according to ESPN Draft Expert Todd McShay (Insider-only article). The Eagles select at No. 20, but Kelly may be hoping to have a shot to draft his former star. Moving up from 20th to first or second is probably out of the question, and even moving up to sixth is unlikely. However, if Kelly is sold on Mariota, there must be a place where he feels comfortable moving up to get the Heisman winner should he continue to fall.

Last year, Teddy Bridgewater went from possible top-three pick to the end of the first round where the Vikings traded up to select him. I don’t imagine that happening again, even if Mariota continues to fall out of favor with NFL evaluators. Even falling to No. 20 is very unlikely, as the fit with the Eagles is too obvious and any other team interested would be smart enough to try to work a deal to move up ahead of the Eagles to select him.

Kelly might not think Mariota is the perfect fit for the NFL version of his up-tempo attack, but Foles, Sanchez, and Hoyer are probably more likely to disappoint than they are to put up the points that Kelly is looking for from his offense.

Positions Of Need

Other than quarterback, which is always the number one position of need for teams that don’t feel they have the right guy, the Eagles’ biggest need is at cornerback, where the team is in desperate need of an upgrade. During their 1-3 finish, the Eagles repeatedly got burned in one-on-one coverage on the outside – giving up notably large performances to Dez Bryant, Doug Baldwin, DeSean Jackson, and Odell Beckham Jr. – and the club’s corners struggled in many other games this season.

If the team is insistent on running an aggressive defense, it will require better players on the outside. Darrelle Revis seems like a lock to return to the Patriots, and Byron Maxwell might not represent the type of athlete the Eagles need for their style of defense. Brandon Flowers also struggled in the Chiefs’ man-to-man heavy defense before being cut and restoring his value in San Diego.

Among corners that are better fits, Kareem Jackson could potentially handle the scheme, although he has been inconsistent in Houston. Antonio Cromartie is also a modicum of inconsistency, but he has a lot of experience being on an island and has had more good days than bad recently.

One interesting option is Packers free agent Tramon Williams, who was last seen getting burned for a game-winning, one-on-one touchdown to Jermaine Kearse. Williams will likely not be re-signed by the Packers as a 32-year-old corner. He still has some cover skills, and on a short-term deal, could be effective. Chris Culliver and Davon House could be additional options for Philadelphia, though neither would be considered a surefire fix at the position.

The team could also use an upgrade at safety, although veteran options are far and few between there as well. If Antrel Rolle or Troy Polamalu hits free agency, both could be stop-gap solutions for the Eagles in 2015. The team will also have an opportunity to look at defensive backs with their first-round pick, with a number of corners and/or safeties likely to be available. Landon Collins of Alabama could be one star player that may fall to the Eagles at that No. 20 spot.

Key Free Agents

The Eagles’ most important free agent is Jeremy Maclin, who bet on himself with a one-year contract last season. That bet paid off to the tune of 85 catches, 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. Maclin is now in line for a very big long-term contract with plenty of guaranteed money. Our own Luke Adams noted that it wouldn’t make sense for Maclin to sign his extension just yet — with franchise tags ready to be passed out, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant could be off the market by the time free agency opens. That would make Maclin’s best competition Randall Cobb, and could leave him as the most sought-after free agent at his position.

The only other major free agent worth keeping is edge rusher Brandon Graham. Graham never quite fit into the Eagles’ plans under Kelly’s regime. Graham would be a cleaner fit for a 4-3 defense where he could line up with one hand in the dirt. Despite high production, he has appeared in less than 1,300 snaps over the past three seasons. In 435 snaps in 2012, he ranked as the second-best defensive end in the league according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He graded positively again in 331 snaps in 2013 while transitioning to a 3-4 outside linebacker, and his 524 snaps in 2014 he rated out as the third-best player at his position. Graham will likely look for a big pay raise with more opportunity, and the Eagles might think it is better to let him go and groom underwhelming 2014 first-round pick Marcus Smith for a larger role on the defense.

The team will likely allow Nate Allen, Bradley Fletcher, Sanchez, and Brad Smith leave in free agency, or bring them back on short-term deals with little guaranteed money.

Possible Cap Casualties

Cary Williams‘ middling performance and the struggles in the secondary as a whole would be enough to consider moving on from the Super-Bowl-winning cornerback, and a cap hit of more than $8.16MM for 2015 will only make that decision easier. Cutting Williams would save $6.5MM on the cap, according to OverTheCap.com.

A tougher decision for the Eagles will be Trent Cole, who has been a stalwart of the team’s defense for years, and remains productive. A pass-rushing expert, Cole has been a premier – if underrated – contributor for his entire career as an Eagle. His 85.5 career sacks puts him just outside the top 10 for active players, and place him second in franchise history. However, releasing Cole this offseason would result in cap savings of $8.425MM in 2015, followed by savings of $11MM and $14MM the next two years. If the team still wants to keep him, a restructure might be a possibility for Cole, who has expressed interest in playing his entire career with the team.

DeMeco Ryans tore his Achilles tendon and missed most of the 2014 campaign, leaving Kelly to call him the “Mufasa” of the team’s defense. Whether or not that reference was used properly, there is no doubt that Ryans was a leader on the team and that his absence would be felt. The team will likely want him back in 2015, but a $6.9MM cap hit may be too high for an inside linebacker coming off a serious injury.

Finally, LeSean McCoy is the rare running back who holds the highest cap number on his team’s books. Not many would argue that he’s not deserving of being one of the highest-paid players at his position, but even still, a cap hit approaching $12MM leaves restructuring a possibility.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The Eagles will likely point to Fletcher Cox as a top priority this offseason. He graded out as a top five 3-4 defensive end in 2014 according to Pro Football Focus, alongside such names as J.J. Watt, Muhammad Wilkerson, Calais Campbell, and Sheldon Richardson. The team will almost certainly exercise its fifth-year option on Cox, but a long-term extension would be ideal.

Foles believes he should return as the starter in 2015, and if the Eagles agree, then an extension seems like a possibility. However, it’s not clear if the team is sold on the idea of Foles as its quarterback of the future. If he becomes available via trade, there will likely be potential suitors who believe in his abilities. The Eagles may covet a passer like Mariota, or another player more dynamic than Foles.

Overall Outlook

The Eagles are coming off a 10-win season that saw them narrowly miss the playoffs, and 2015 will likely represent a crossroads for Kelly’s regime. The club was able to stay afloat with the duo of Foles and Sanchez, but that shouldn’t mask the fact that the quarterback situation needs to be addressed. Of course, with the 20th pick in the draft and a lack of options in free agency, it will be extremely difficult to upgrade that spot. The dream would be Mariota falling, but that might just be a storyline that brings the city of Philadelphia false hope. A secondary option such as Brett Hundley far from guarantees an upgrade over Foles, now or in the future.

A more realistic spot to make significant upgrades is in the secondary, which held the entire defense back in 2014. Unfortunately for Eagles’ fans, the market for corners and safeties isn’t great this year after or Revis and Devin McCourty, who may not even become available. Players like Cromartie and Tramon Williams, or Byron Maxwell, Chris Culliver, and Davon House could be improvements, but adding one or two of those guys probably wouldn’t make the Eagles’ defense one of the top units in the league.

Coach Kelly will try his best to keep his team at double-digit wins and in the playoff hunt for a third straight year, but if he cannot return Foles to his 2013 form or find a better option, Kelly will have a hard time sustaining his early success over the long term.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason Outlook: Dallas Cowboys

By | at February 12, 2015 6:07 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Tony Romo, QB: $27,773,000
  2. Tyron Smith, T: $13,039,000
  3. Brandon Carr, CB: $12,717,000
  4. Henry Melton, DT: $9,250,250
  5. Jason Witten, TE: $8,512,000
  6. Sean Lee, LB: $5,450,000
  7. Morris Claiborne, CB: $5,175,069
  8. Orlando Scandrick, CB: $4,351,250
  9. Barry Church, S: $3,250,000
  10. Mackenzy Bernadeau, G: $2,824,168

Notable coaching moves:

Draft:

Other:

Overview

As a youngster, did you grow up dreaming of becoming a right tackle? Is there a Fathead replica of your team’s starting left guard overlooking your couch? No, offensive lineman aren’t celebrated as much as the players at skill positions, but we all know how vital the o-line really is. After years of building the unit, the Cowboys’ offensive line helped propel them to the top of the NFC East.

Tony Romo, who has had his ups and downs in recent years, finished the year as the No. 6 quarterback in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). DeMarco Murray took advantage of those truck-sized holes created by the o-line and rushed his way to a career year. Dez Bryant cemented himself as one of the very best (if not the best) receivers in the NFL, lighting up opposing cornerbacks on a weekly basis. Meanwhile, the defense went from last in the league in 2013 to 19th overall in 2014 – not exactly the 1985 Bears, but a step up from being the “-Allas” Cowboys.

The Cowboys have reason to believe in 2015, but their electric offensive duo is eligible for free agency and there are numerous holes to address.

Positions Of Need

The Cowboys’ needs will depend heavily on what happens with Bryant and Murray and, by all accounts, the wide receiver is far more likely to return to the Cowboys than the running back. If Murray is not retained (we’ll discuss his situation in depth in a bit), there are a number of options that Dallas can turn to. It’s been long rumored that Jerry Jones would love to land Texas native Adrian Peterson. In fact, the two chatted over the summer and reportedly discussed the possibility.

“Well, I understand, Adrian,” Jones said. “I’d like that, too … Well, I love your story. I love your daddy’s story. I’ve always respected what you’ve been about. I’ve always been a fan of yours.”

Peterson would later downplay the sweet nothings whispered between the two but the mutual interest is abundantly clear. The Vikings, meanwhile, hold the cards and they could still push for 100 cents on the dollar in spite of AD’s off-field troubles from last year. Or, they might not be willing to discuss Peterson at all with Dallas. The last time these two franchises consummated a deal involving a franchise running back, the Cowboys came out ahead by a mile.

Alternatively, the Cowboys could turn to the draft for their next starting tailback. Georgia star Todd Gurley once seemed destined to be a top pick, but his 2014 ACL injury could put him within range for Dallas later in the first round. Beyond Gurley, Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon and Indiana’s Tevin Coleman are among the best backs on the board and both have drawn comparisons to Murray for their running style. In free agency, Dallas will find notables like Mark Ingram and the oft-injured Ryan Mathews. Ingram, of course, had a breakout season with the Saints in 2014 that was derailed a bit in the middle by a broken hand.

It sure doesn’t sound like the Cowboys will have to replace Bryant, but if they do, guys like Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Brandon Marshall, Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace, and more could be available on the open market. At this point, if Dallas does anything at wide receiver, it seems more likely that they would look into supporting players with Cole Beasley (restricted) and Dwayne Harris (unrestricted) in limbo.

On the other side of the ball, Dallas could have a ton of work to do with defensive linemen Nick Hayden, Anthony Spencer, and George Selvie all out-of-contract. Meanwhile, if Henry Melton remains on the roster through the first day of the 2015 league year, a three-year extension worth $8MM annually and $9MM guaranteed will kick in. Melton appeared to be a mortal lock to remain under that contract at one point last season, but finishing the season on IR has thrown that in flux.

Bruce Carter, Justin Durant, and Rolando McClain are all headed towards free agency, which could lead the Cowboys to go shopping for linebackers. Cornerback could also be a need for the Cowboys if Brandon Carr isn’t willing to restructure his deal.

Key Free Agents

Re-signing Bryant will be the Cowboys’ No. 1 priority this offseason. While there was a good amount of dialogue between the wide receiver and owner Jerry Jones, Bryant ultimately didn’t get an offer he liked enough during the season as he opted to gamble on himself. That bet paid off big time as Bryant turned in a career year with 88 receptions, 1,320 yards, and 16 touchdowns. Needless to say, keeping Bryant for the long-term won’t be cheap, and that means that the franchise tag is a distinct possibility. At an estimated $13MM, the franchise tag isn’t a drop in the bucket either, but Jones won’t hesitate to do it if the two sides can’t come to an agreement on a new deal. Of course, the very threat of the franchise tag could light a fire underneath Bryant’s camp.

Jerry loves his stars, but he’s apparently gun-shy about giving Bryant a big long-term deal because of his off-field issues. Bryant’s reps will likely seek a deal worth $12-14MM in average annual value, making the franchise tag something of a no-brainer. The Cowboys could be persuaded into making a multiyear pact happen if they get a break in guaranteed dollars, but I don’t think they’ll mind Bryant playing for his money once again.

Unfortunately, the game of football isn’t as fair to running backs. Murray also turned in a career year, but at this time it doesn’t sound like the Cowboys are willing to shell out big bucks to keep him. Recently, Jason Cole of Bleacher Report heard from sources that the reigning offensive player of the year should command between $7-10MM annually on a new deal. Meanwhile, a report from Ian Rapoport of NFL.com indicated that Dallas’ latest offer came in at about $4MM per season. There’s one heck of a bridge to gap between Murray and Dallas and the Cowboys might not be willing to meet him halfway. Still, Murray put on a ton of miles in 2014 and his fumbling issues were troubling and it’s possible that his market won’t be as hot as he expects.

On the offensive line, Dallas will have to figure out what to do at right tackle with both Doug Free and Jermey Parnell eligible for free agency. Free was ticketed to be the starter in 2014, but injuries mucked with those plans, opening the door for Parnell. The Cowboys would love to keep both, but that might not make budgetary sense for the team. If Free’s foot and ankle troubles appear to be behind him, it wouldn’t surprising to see him return while Parnell gets signed to be someone else’s starter.

Even though Dallas has serious uncertainty when it comes to its linebacking troupe, the club at least has the flexibility of Anthony Hitchens and can plug him in at any spot necessary. Still, in a perfect world, Dallas would retain McClain and put him in the middle, allowing Hitchens and the returning Sean Lee to take care of the outside spots. It seemed unlikely at the time he was acquired from the Ravens, but McClain turned out to be a rock for the Cowboys in the face of Lee’s season-ending injury. Keeping both Durant and Carter would be a solid play by the Cowboys but with Carter’s measurables, it’s not hard to see another team swooping in and paying more than Dallas would be comfortable with.

Possible Cap Casualties

With a cap hit north of $12.7MM, Carr will be out of Dallas unless he is willing to take a pay cut. Back in January, Jones made it clear that he’s not interested in a restructuring and instead wants a salary reduction.

“There’s an issue of going and borrowing some money, borrowing it in the sense of hedging, taking money from future years,” Jones said. “There’s an issue there. Carr played well this year and I’m not as critical of Carr as others. But that’s a lot of money. One thing that we just got to do is we’ve got to make sure that every way we can, we get the value for the money.”

Releasing Carr outright would save the Cowboys $8MM against the cap in 2015 but it would leave them with a $7.4MM burden the following year. Moving on from Carr would be doubly difficult since Morris Claiborne, another underachiever, is not guaranteed to be ready for the start of the 2015 season thanks to his torn patella tendon. It seems like a pay cut, even if it’s a modest one, would be in the best interest of both parties.

The Cowboys would probably like to welcome Melton back for another season but they’ll probably look to work out a new deal. A new contract for the 28-year-old defensive tackle would probably call for a big drop in guaranteed money with a reduced average annual value as well. Melton finished the year as the 14th ranked defensive tackle in the entire NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

Romo’s contract calls for a $27.77MM cap hit in 2015, before dipping to $17.64MM in 2016. Jones, as we mentioned when talking about Carr, is wary of shifting financial burden into future years to clear up the current cap situation. However, it’s hard to see Dallas really sticking to that plan considering the work that needs to be done this offseason. The Cowboys have a limited window to win with Romo under center and there’s no real succession plan in place for the 34-year-old (35 in April). Of course, at Romo’s age, an extension is probably off the table.

Recently, Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap looked at the Cowboys options when it comes to a possible restructuring for Romo and he found that there were two viable solutions. The first would be a restructuring where $7MM is converted into a signing bonus, rather than the maximum allowable figure of $16.03MM. That would create $5.6MM in cap space with a workable $14.2MM in dead money in 2017. Alternatively, Fitzgerald suggests that Dallas could take away from Romo’s massive 2015 base salary and shift that money over to the following year, where his current base is just $8.5MM.

Overall Outlook

After capturing their first NFC East title since 2009, it finally appears that things are falling into place for the Cowboys. In order to repeat, however, they’ll have to find a way to keep their needle-movers without compromising too much for future seasons.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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