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Offseason Outlook: New York Giants

By | at February 9, 2015 8:30 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Eli Manning, QB: $19,750,000
  2. Victor Cruz, WR: $8,125,000
  3. Will Beatty, T: $8,050,000
  4. Mathias Kiwanuka, LB:$7,450,000
  5. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB: $7,250,000
  6. Prince Amukamara, CB: $6,898,000
  7. Jon Beason, LB: $6,691,666
  8. Geoff Schwartz, G: $4,975,000
  9. J.D. Walton, C: $3,625,000
  10. Jameel McClain, LB: $3,400,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 9 overall pick
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Broncos for Brandon McManus.

Other:

Overview

Needless to say, 2014 was not a banner year for football in the Big Apple. The Giants came into the season with hope – and even gave us a few early flashes of something promising – but fell into a vicious mid-season slump that they could not recover from.

Entering the year, there was buzz about the Giants’ offense under newly-hired offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. Quarterback Eli Manning had his worst season in 2013, having thrown a league-high and career-high 27 interceptions. McAdoo, who was pushed by the front office even though he might not have been head coach Tom Coughlin‘s first choice – was expected to breathe fresh air into the Giants offense with the kind of inventive play calling that helped guide Aaron Rodgers for the preceding two seasons. Instead, Manning improved only marginally while the running game continued to sputter.

The defense, meanwhile, didn’t exactly help matters. Perry Fewell‘s unit went from sixth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA in 2013 to 25th in 2014. Coughlin furiously went to bat for Fewell when talking to the media and, presumably, did the same behind closed doors, but it wasn’t enough to save his job. After parting ways with Fewell, the Giants welcomed Steve Spagnuolo back to his old job after six years away. Spags served as the Ravens’ secondary coach in 2014 and Football Outsiders, Baltimore finished 15th in DVOA against the pass which is really quite admirable when considering how banged up their defensive backs were. The Giants have confidence in Spagnuolo, but former pupils Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck, and Osi Umenyiora aren’t walking through that door. It remains to be seen what Big Blue will do between now and the fall, but it stands to reason that he’ll have to do more with less.

Positions Of NeedJason Pierre-Paul

If the Giants are unable to retain Jason Pierre-Paul this offseason, the defensive end position automatically becomes their top need by a mile. Without JPP, Big Blue is left with a skeleton crew of headed by Robert Ayers and Damontre Moore at the bookends. The Giants likely can’t find an equal to Pierre-Paul this offseason if he walks, but they’d have to do the best they can to fill his shoes. The Giants aren’t going to find a bonafide superstar defensive end on the open market, leaving them to explore possible trades and, more likely, the upcoming draft. This year’s class includes Nebraska’s Randy Gregory as well as Missouri’s Shane Ray, Kentucky’s Alvin Dupree, and Trey Flowers of Arkansas. At this time, Gregory is regarded as the pick of the litter, though it’s far from guaranteed that he’ll be on the board at No. 9.

The Giants will also need to bolster their offensive line which was battered by injuries in 2014. Geoff Schwartz will be welcomed back after playing in just two games last season and he was so sorely missed that the Giants just might throw him an old school New Jersey Devils-style ticker tape parade in the Meadowlands parking lot. His return will mean a lot to Big Blue, but there’s more work to be done. The Giants are expected to plug Weston Richburg in at center and use Justin Pugh at guard or tackle, leaving one spot open. Ideally, the Giants would shift Pugh to the interior line and go out-of-house for a right tackle solution. Failing that, the Giants could theoretically stand pat with what they have: a line of left tackle Will Beatty, Schwartz, center J.D. Walton, guard Weston Richburg, and Pugh. However, after watching the Cowboys soar in 2014 behind an all-world offensive line, one has to think that the Giants will try and follow suit. In the draft, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Giants target Iowa tackle Brandon Scherff.

Like the defensive end position, the Giants could be in serious need of a safety depending on what happens with free agent Antrel Rolle and, probably to a lesser extent, Stevie Brown and Quintin Demps. Rolle is proven, but at 32 it’s not clear how much the Giants will be willing to spend in order to keep him. Internally, the Giants could turn to rising sophomore Nat Berhe and rising junior Cooper Taylor at safety, but neither one has a really strong track record. Berhe is the more realistic option between the two, but he’s still regarded by many as being a little too green. If the Giants are ready/able to spend big, Devin McCourty could be a free agent option for them. The Pats star and former Rutgers notable could be interested in a homecoming, but he probably won’t go for a major discount on his first massive payday.

The Giants linebacking corps likely needs to be addressed since Mark Herzlich and Jacquian Williams are free agents while there are serious question marks about Jon Beason looking ahead to the fall. Jameel McClain could be plugged in to fill a hole and Devon Kennard was a bright spot for the Giants last season, but the Giants would like to get a little younger and faster in that group if at all possible.

Beyond that, the Giants can be expected to look into defensive tackles. Ndamukong Suh‘s camp made it known in the middle of last season that he would like to play in New York and the Giants would surely love to make that a reality for him. Of course, with greater needs elsewhere, Suh probably isn’t walking through that door. Still, after allowing 2,162 rushing yards and 4.94 yards per carry last season, it remains a need as Johnathan Hankins requires a qualified partner.

Key Free Agents

For a long time, many questioned whether Pierre-Paul was the same player that burst onto the national landscape with a brilliant season in 2011. JPP continued to give those critics fuel during the first half of 2014 before changing the script in the season’s final six games. The 25-year-old (26 at the end of February) registered nine sacks, five QB hits, and 15 QB hurries to close out the year, a perfect advertisement for himself as he gets set for his next contract. Out of 67 eligible players, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rated Pierre-Paul as as the league’s sixth best 4-3 defensive end. Giants owner John Mara is confident that Pierre-Paul will be in New York in 2015, which could be an indication that the Giants are prepared to use the franchise tag on him if necessary. However, GM Jerry Reese would certainly prefer not to dedicate ~$15MM worth of cap space to the defensive end. As we touched on before, however, the pool of available DEs beyond No. 90 is rather weak. The Giants just might have to pay more than they’d otherwise be comfortable with if they want to have an aggressive defensive line next season.

Rolle will be a key free agent for the Giants due to their lack of battle-tested alternatives on the depth chart, but the veteran is not expected to entertain a hometown discount. He’s believed to be looking for a three-year deal and if the Giants don’t give it to him, another team probably will. Elsewhere in the secondary, cornerback Walter Thurmond will be a priority for the Giants. Although he missed a good chunk of the season, the Giants would rather retain him at a fair price rather than attempt to replace him.

Possible Cap Casualties

Mathias Kiwanuka has restructured his contract multiple times in the past in the name of the greater good. Still, at his advanced age, he’s still overpriced with a $7.45MM cap hit. More importantly, he’s a potential impediment to re-signing Pierre-Paul. Kiwanuka is one of the longest-tenured members of the team and a fan favorite, but this could be where he and the Giants part ways.

Running back Rashad Jennings could be a post-June 1st cut for the Giants in order to save $2.25MM of cap space, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise for him to stay. Jennings, of course, was one of the many, many players to miss time for the Giants in 2014 due to injuries. Punter Steve Weatherford has a $3.075MM cap number and the Giants could save $1.325MM if they drop him. Dropping defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins would save the Giants $2.25MM versus his cap number of ~$2.9MM and would give the Giants a chance to give more burn to their younger defensive linemen. Assuming we see a revamp of the offensive line, J.D. Walton could be shown the door to save about $3MM against the cap.

Many have isolated Beason as a possible cap casualty given his age, proneness to injury, and the $3.5MM they’d save by cutting him. However, there’s no one in-house to really take his place in the middle and they’d still have to eat a good amount of dead money to drop him. It wasn’t long ago that the Giants made Beason one of just a few of their own free agents to be retained. Surely, they still see some promise in him, even if he’s had trouble staying on the field. Beason only played five games in 2014.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

Manning represents the largest salary cap hit on the Giants’ 2015 roster and the Giants could approach him about a contract extension in order to lock him up beyond 2015 and to help carve out some additional space in the upcoming league year. On the surface, one would say that Manning should be content with a repeat of his previous deal which paid him an average of $16.25MM per season given his recent play. But (stop me if you’ve heard this before), the price tag for starting quarterbacks has risen dramatically over the last few years and it’s not hard to see Manning’s camp pushing for a bit of a raise. Are the Giants willing to forgive and forget about Manning’s interception-laden 2013 and marry themselves to him at an increased cost? Conversely, GM Jerry Reese could opt to play out the year with Manning, but that would mean less improvement across the board for 2015 and a possible rebuilding effort heading into 2016.

In a distant second place, Victor Cruz represents the second-highest cap hit on their roster at $8.125MM. Cruz has four lears left on his deal with an average cap hit of $9MM. The base salary climbs each season and this year he’s scheduled to make $6.15MM. That’s not an unreasonable number for a healthy Cruz, but no one knows how much salsa dancing he’ll be doing in the years to come. Cruz tore the patellar tendon in his right knee during the Giants’ October contest against the Eagles, ending his season. In those six games, Cruz logged 337 receiving yards and a touchdown. If the Giants want to play hardball, they might be able to convince Cruz to knock a couple million off of his salary by playing up his injury concerns and the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr. as a top receiver in the NFL. It would be a surprise to see the Giants cut the fan favorite, however, as that would only save them about $2.4MM in cap space.

Overall Outlook

The Giants, who have won two Super Bowl rings under the tutelage of Coughlin, have seen better days. Still, the NFC East isn’t exactly murderer’s row. Washington doesn’t look the part of a contender, no one knows which version of the Eagles will show up in 2015, and the Cowboys could be faced with replacing last season’s offensive player of the year. Much of how the Giants’ season goes will depend on whether they can keep Pierre-Paul in 2015 — and at what price. If JPP stays put without crippling the Giants’ cap room, then they can retool the roster in a hurry and get back to their winning ways.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

3 comments New York Giants Offseason Outlook PFR Originals

Offseason Outlook: Miami Dolphins

By | at February 8, 2015 4:08 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Mike Wallace, WR: $12,100,000
  2. Branden Albert, T: $10,725,000
  3. Cameron Wake, DE: $10,450,000
  4. Brent Grimes, CB: $10,000,000
  5. Dannell Ellerbe, LB: $9,850,000
  6. Reshad Jones, S: $7,760,000
  7. Mike Pouncey, C: $7,438,000
  8. Brian Hartline, WR: $7,350,000
  9. Cortland Finnegan, CB: $6,475,000
  10. Randy Starks, DT: $6,000,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

For most of the last decade, the Dolphins have come to embody the word “mediocre” — since winning the AFC East in 2008, Miami hasn’t won more than eight games in a season, nor have they posted more than ten losses in any single campaign. After posting a pedestrian 8-8 record in 2013, owner Stephen Ross made some changes at the top, firing longtime general manager Jeff Ireland, and, after a protracted search process, hired Buccaneers executive Dennis Hickey as the club’s new decision-maker.Joe Philbin

Hickey and the rest of the front office used free agency to make several upgrades, signing tackle Branden Albert to fortify an offensive line that had come under fire, retaining cornerback Brent Grimes and defensive tackle Randy Starks to aid the team’s defense, and adding veterans like Cortland Finnegan, Knowshon Moreno, and Earl Mitchell to round out the roster. In the draft, the Dolphins picked tackle Ja’Wuan James and receiver Jarvis Landry in the first two rounds, selections that would prove astute.

But despite the new additions, Miami once again finished with a .500 record, good for third place in the division. There were positive developments to be sure, as third-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill took to new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s scheme and posted his best season to date, completing 66.4% of his passes for 4,045 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. The rest of the offense, buoyed by contributions from Landry, running back Lamar Miller, and a revamped offensive line, finished 7th in DVOA. The defense was a different story, however, as the Fins finished 21st in yards allowed, 20th in points allowed, and 18th in DVOA. The unit struggled in both aspects of defense, placing 20th against the pass and 18th against the run per DVOA.

Front Office Changes:

Rumors abounded that head coach Joe Philbin’s job was in jeopardy, as he’d posted just a 23-25 record during his three seasons at the helm. Many speculated that Ross, rebuffed by Jim Harbaugh three years before, would once again try to lure the 49ers coach to South Beach. However, Ross announced after Miami’s penultimate game that Philbin would indeed be retained for a fourth season.

Hickey, by all accounts, had an excellent rookie season as GM, hitting on both his free agency additions and his draft picks. Still, the Dolphins opted to make a front office change for the second consecutive year, hiring former Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum as executive vice president of football operations, a role which guarantees him control over the club’s personnel. Tannenbaum and Philbin will report directly to Ross, while Hickey, who was retained as something of a “GM-in-name-only,” will report to Tannenbaum. Tannenbaum had mixed results in New York, and even if the move proves fruitful, it’s odd that he was able to wrest control from Hickey after the latter’s successful debut.

Key Free Agents:

Regardless of the front office hierarchy, Tannenbaum and Hickey will need to work collaboratively to make decisions on several critical key free agents. Topping that list is defensive tackle Jared Odrick, who heads into his sixth season after a very successful 2014. He started all 16 games along the interior, finishing as the 19th-best DT among 81 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He posted just one sack, but in Kevin Coyle’s 4-3 scheme, Odrick’s role isn’t to get after the quarterback. The 27-year-old will be part of a strong free agent defensive tackle class, and might price himself out of Miami’s range.

The Dolphins have interest in re-signing tight end Charles Clay, and were reportedly to planning to offer the 25-year-old a contract proposal in the coming weeks. Coming off a season in which he caught 58 passes for 605 yards and three touchdowns, Clay could probably ask for $4MM/year on the open market. The franchise tag looms as an option for the Fins, but as PFR’s Luke Adams noted last month, Miami’s tight cap space situation means it probably can’t commit to such a high salary for one year.

Miami also has decisions to make along the offensive line, where Samson Satele and Daryn Colledge are impending FAs. Satele filled in for the injured Mike Pouncey after the latter was injured during training camp, and stayed at center even when Pouncey returned. Colledge, signed late in the summer, was the starting left guard, playing 763 snaps. Both Satele and Colledge were below-average players in 2014, and the Dolphins probably woudn’t want either to return as a starter, but perhaps one could be re-signed to act as depth.

Finally, three veterans present interesting free agent cases for the Dolphins. Backup quarterback Matt Moore is viewed as one of the better No. 2 options in the league, and could be aiming to find a starting role in free agency, especially given the dearth of QB options available on the market and in the draft. As such, James Walker of ESPN.com wrote last month that there’s a good chance Moore finds work elsewhere, while Miami searches for a more affordable backup.

Two other veterans — running back Knowshon Moreno and safety Louis Delmas — are each coming off injuries, as Moreno tore his ACL in October and Delmas did the same in December. Both were turned in competent performances in 2014, but given that each suffered such a serious injury, I wouldn’t expect to see either return.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The Dolphins are currently projected to enter the offseason with just $1.69MM in available cap space, which could make roster maneuvering difficult. As such, the club could opt to make several cuts to free up financial room. Undoubtedly, receiver Mike Wallace is the name to watch when it comes to a potential release. After signing a five-year, $60MM deal prior to the 2013 season, Wallace has failed to live up to expectations, failing to top 75 receptions or 1,000 yards in either of his two seasons in Miami (though he did catch 10 touchdowns in 2014). His cap figure tops $12MM in each of the next three seasons, and Miami could create $2.5MM of space by releasing him now, or $6.9MM by designating him as a post-June 1 cut.

Ousting Wallace as a pre-June 1 release would still leave $9.6MM of dead money on Miami’s books in 2015, so the front office will have to decide if that extra $2.5MM in savings is worth the move. Given Wallace’s production and the team’s fiscal issues, it just might be. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported today that Hickey and Wallace recently met, and suggested that the club won’t make a decision on Wallace without first considering all its options, which suggests that a pay cut could be in the cards.

Two more pass-catchers — Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson — could also be shown the door, as the Dolphins would save a combined $6.41MM by cutting both. Neither was overly effective last year, as Hartline caught only 39 passes while Gibson saw just 29 receptions. The Wallace situation will likely play a role in the duo’s future in Miami. If Wallace is retained, especially at a lower salary, both could be cut, as Miami could fully turn the No. 2 role over to Landry. If Wallace is released, however, one or both of Hartline/Gibson could stick around to provide a veteran presence in the WR corps.

Linebacker Dannell Ellerbe is almost surely going to be released — he’s set to count $9.85MM against the cap next year, and the Fins would save $5.65MM by cutting him. He missed almost all of last season with a hip injury, but posted a -13.5 PFF grade in 2013, his first year in South Beach. Miami could turn to either Jelani Jenkins, or fellow FAs Jason Trusnik of Kelvin Sheppard, to take Ellerbe’s role.

Another defender, the veteran cornerback Finnegan, is also on the chopping block after rating as the No. 74 CB in the league among 108 qualifiers last season per PFF. At 31, he’s due a $5.45MM base salary in 2015, and would leave just $1MM in dead money if cut. Finnegan is just a season removed from being ranked as the second-worst corner in the NFL per PFF, so it’s fair to say he probably won’t be retained.

Positions Of Need:

The problem with potentially releasing so many veterans is that the Dolphins would subsequently need to find replacements, which could be tough given the team’s cap problems. Miami’s secondary is an area of concern, as the the club needs to find a safety to pair with Reshad Jones, and could look to add a No. 2 corner if Finnegan is cut. The likes of Byron Maxwell and Devin McCourty will be out of the Dolphins’ price range, but lower-tier alternatives like Chris Culliver, Perrish Cox, Chris Conte, or Dwight Lowery could be viable.

Guard is another position that could use a talent infusion. With Pouncey likely to take over at center, the Dolphins won’t want to count on Colledge as a starter next year. Second-year lineman Billy Turner or veteran Shelley Smith might be able to take one of the guard spots, but a free agent addition at the position wouldn’t be a bad idea. 49er Mike Iupati will be too expensive, but James Carpenter, a former first-round pick, could make some sense. Veteran lineman Todd Herremans could be cut by the Eagles, and he could be an option for the Dolphins given his familiarity with Lazor and his scheme.

It’s conceivable that Miami could rid itself of Wallace, Hartline, and Gibson, leaving a glaring need at receiver. The Dolphins won’t be able to make a play for Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant, and Torrey Smith isn’t a schematic fit — he’s essentially a Wallace-clone, and Tannehill struggles throwing the deep ball. Jeremy Maclin (who, like Herremans, is familiar with Lazor) would be a match, but he also might cost too much. Miami might have to settle for someone like Kenny Britt or Hakeem Nicks, veterans who have shown flashes of talent but have struggled in recent years.

The club could look to add reserve talent at both quarterback and running back, where Moore and Moreno will likely not be retained. Bringing in a young-ish option like Christian Ponder or Blaine Gabbert could make some sense, or the team could add a veteran such as Tarvaris Jackson to solidify the No. 2 QB role. At running back, Miller proved he could thrive as the starter, but it’s rare that a single player is entrusted with the RB role. Signing a veteran like Bilal Powell or Antone Smith, or giving a chance to a rehabbing Stevan Ridley, could be intriguing for Miami.

More than likely, Miami will have to use the draft to fill its holes, as free agency might prove to costly. Hickey hit on several of his picks last season, and while regression to the mean suggests he probably won’t be as successful in 2015, his performance warrants the opportunity to head another draft. Teaming with Tannenbaum, Hickey will need to find several more successful rookies who can contribute for the next several years at low costs.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions:

The Dolphins will have to decide whether to exercise their fifth-year option on Tannehill, and given his success last season, it’s probably a foregone conclusion that they will. The next step would be entering negotiations on a long-term extension. Tannehill improved greatly in 2014, and another exemplary year in 2015 would only increase his asking price, so it could be smart for Miami to lock him up now. A deal in the Andy Dalton/Colin Kaepernick mold, with a large total commitment but modest guarantees, would make sense for both sides, as would an AAV in the neighborhood of $13-14MM.

Pouncey’s deal is up after 2015, making him a candidate for extension, as well. His brother, center Maurkice Pouncey of the Steelers, recently signed a five-year, $44MM extension to remain in Pittsburgh. Maurkice is considered the better player, so Mike shouldn’t warrant as high a salary, but a new deal that pays him $6MM per year would be reasonable. Miller is also entering his walk year, but given the fungibility of running backs, it might make sense to simply let him play the year out rather than try to extend him.

Overall Outlook:

2015 is unquestionably an important year for the Dolphins. Another 8-8 (or worse) season would probably be the last straw for Philbin. His firing could mean the removal of Lazor, which would force Tannehill to master yet another offensive scheme. Cap space remains a problem in Miami, so a series of cuts probably need to be made in order to free up financial room. The team had success in the free agent market last season, and another solid round of signings, combined with a second consecutive high-quality draft, could set the Dolphins up for years to come. A Tannehill extension is the primary issue on the table, but if the club misses the playoffs yet again in 2015, any offseason wins will be quickly forgotten.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2 comments Miami Dolphins Offseason Outlook PFR Originals

Offseason Outlook: New York Jets

By | at February 4, 2015 6:02 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, T: $11,698,670
  2. Percy Harvin, WR: $10,500,000
  3. Nick Mangold, C: $10,407,100
  4. Muhammad Wilkerson, DL: $6,969,000
  5. Eric Decker, WR: $6,500,000
  6. Chris Johnson, RB: $5,250,000
  7. Breno Giacomini, T: $5,125,000
  8. Dee Milliner, CB: $3,453,028
  9. Quinton Coples, OLB: $2,800,890
  10. Chris Ivory, RB: $2,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 6 overall pick
  • Owe conditional draft pick to the Seahawks for Percy Harvin. The pick is a fourth-rounder for now, but could become a sixth-rounder if Harvin doesn’t remain on the Jets’ roster.

Other:

Overview

After a 4-12 season and their fourth straight year without a playoff appearance, the Jets decided to overhaul their coaching staff and front office. Now, they’re poised to make some significant changes to their on-field personnel.

Last offseason, cap-conscious GM John Idzik left upwards of $20MM in cap space unused as he plotted for a future that he would not be a part of. The offseason was not without its splashes, of course. The Jets added Broncos star Eric Decker on a multi-year deal, signed Michael Vick to compete with Geno Smith at quarterback, and landed running back Chris Johnson after he fell into their laps late in the offseason. The injection of star power helped them continue to dominate the back pages of New York tabloids, but it did little to help improve their on-field product.

Outside of the Jets’ defensive line, it’s hard to isolate one unit that really succeeded in 2014, but the secondary was especially brutal. Dimitri Patterson was brought aboard in the offseason to serve as one of the team’s starting cornerbacks, but he allegedly went AWOL during training camp and was ultimately released. Of course, having Patterson in the fold probably wouldn’t have moved the needle much anyway. On the other hand, someone like Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie could have been a difference maker, but he signed with the other tenants of MetLife Stadium after the Jets insulted him with a lowball offer.

On offense, Smith followed up a lukewarm rookie season with a sophomore campaign that was even worse. Smith admittedly didn’t have a great stable of wide receivers beyond Decker to start the year, but things didn’t get much better for him after Percy Harvin came to town. Moving on from Smith would be a rather easy decision if it weren’t for the absolute dearth of alternatives available this offseason.

Coaching/Front Office Changes

Rex Ryan went 26-38 over the last four seasons, yet you’d be hard-pressed to find a coach more popular with the local media. New York scribes readily came to Ryan’s defense throughout the Jets’ putrid 4-12 campaign. That could be because Ryan wasn’t given much to work with or because Ryan was a guaranteed gold mine every time he approached a hot microphone — or maybe a bit from both columns. All of the positive ink couldn’t save Ryan’s job at the end of the day, however, and the head coach was shown the door at the end of the season along with Idzik.Todd Bowles

Two years ago, Idzik convinced Jets owner Woody Johnson that he was the man for the job based on his salary cap expertise. When Idzik was ousted, the Jets replaced him with former Texans college scouting director Mike Maccagnan. Maccagnan, who was championed by team consultant Charley Casserly, isn’t much of a numbers guy but has a wealth of football knowledge and a keen eye for player evaluation.

While the Jets went in a different direction at GM, they went with another defensive-minded coach to replace Ryan when they hired former Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. The 51-year-old is now the Jets’ sixth straight head coach with a defensive background as Ryan, Eric Mangini, Herm Edwards, Al Groh, and Bill Parcells were all defense-first coaches. That may seem like an exceptionally long time to emphasize defense, but one can hardly blame Gang Green for being wary of going back to an offensive-minded HC after two dreadful years with Rich Kotite. Bowles will be assisted by Kacy Rodgers on defense while ex-Bills coach Chan Gailey will be responsible for the offensive playcalling.

With Bowles on the sidelines, Maccagnan can expect to get a similar directive to the one that Ryan was giving Idzik: build the defense. This time, there’s a good chance the GM will actually listen.

Positions Of Need

In a perfect world, the Jets would use their considerable cap room or their No. 6 overall pick to find a new starting quarterback. In the real world, well, there’s not much out there. The Jets stank on ice in 2014, but they probably didn’t lose enough to get within range of Oregon product Marcus Mariota or FSU star Jameis Winston. There are other noteworthy names at the position, including UCLA’s Brett Hundley and Baylor’s Bryce Petty, but none would be worth taking with their first round choice. In fact, many aren’t sold on Mariota or Winston as franchise quarterbacks and the outlook is even worse for the rest of the crop. In free agency, the Jets will find a group headlined by Brian Hoyer and old friend Mark Sanchez. Sanchez looked like a top-10 QB when things were clicking in Philadelphia and looked more like his 2012 version when things hit the skids. Even if Sanchez looked like the second coming of Joe Montana for the entire season, it would be hard to see the Jets making a play for him.

The trade market, meanwhile, could hold a couple of interesting options for the Jets. John Fox sounds like he’d be on board with having Jay Cutler as his quarterback in Chicago, but that’s far from certain at that point. Last season was a disaster for the Bears on both sides of the ball, but Cutler has proven himself to be one of the better signal callers in football when he has the right pieces around him. Meanwhile, in Washington, Robert Griffin III‘s future is as uncertain as ever. It wouldn’t be hard to see RGIII in a pair of green-and-white striped socks, but he would probably have to compete for the starting job against Smith in camp.

Whether the Jets make a major addition under center remains to be seen, but it’s a mortal lock that they will add a notable cornerback this offseason. Former Jet Antonio Cromartie has a fan in Bowles and he has made no secret about his desire to return to New York. “My door is always open to returning,” Cromartie said late last month. “Everybody knows I didn’t want to leave. I’m going to keep my door open and see what happens.” Of course, the big fish this offseason will be Darrelle Revis if the Patriots decline his $20MM team option and he tests the open market. That reunion once seemed unthinkable, but the Jets (and Rex Ryan‘s Bills) reportedly have their sights set on him. Beyond those familiar faces, the Jets could look into the likes of Byron Maxwell, Brandon Flowers, Chris Culliver, and Kareem Jackson. Jackson, of course, shares a Houston connection with Maccagnan. Getting Dee Milliner back in the lineup will help things, but the Jets will have to go out-of-house to really lock down the cornerback spots.

Elsewhere in the secondary, the Jets will look to add a new free safety with impending free agent Dawan Landry likely heading elsewhere. Landry had his moments in 2014, but he was a poor complement for the hard-hitting Calvin Pryor. Pryor does his best work hanging out around the line of scrimmage and leveling the kind of hits that were more common in the NFL ten years ago. Landry, meanwhile, isn’t a top-notch coverage option and that meant that Pryor couldn’t really demonstrate his skill set. With a different free safety, the Louisville product could make a significant impact in 2015, provided that he doesn’t rack up too many penalty flags. It should be noted that while Landry might not be the best fit for the Jets, he actually graded out as the ninth-best safety in the NFL last season according to PFF.

The Jets seemingly solved their issues at wide receiver when they acquired Harvin midseason. The eminently talented athlete would be the ideal No. 2 to Decker, if not for his hefty contract. While Harvin is owed $10.5MM for 2015, his salary is non-guaranteed and he can be dropped without salary cap ramifications. Maccagnan has a different approach than Idzik, but it doesn’t take a cap guru to know that’s a massive cost for the oft-injured and mercurial Harvin. If the Jets do want to dole out a top-10 wide receiver salary, they could get bold and go for the likes of free agent Demaryius Thomas, if he hits the open market. Going a little (or a lot cheaper), Gang Green could explore someone like Michael Crabtree, though he also comes with a history of injuries and abrasive behavior. Better yet, the Jets could use the No. 6 pick on the top receiver in the draft, Alabama’s Amari Cooper.

Key Free Agents

The Jets have a great number of free agents this offseason but only a few could be viewed as pivotal. David Harris stands as one of the best inside linebackers on the open market this offseason and he could be open to taking a little bit less to play for a winner. Meanwhile, it’s not hard to see Rex Ryan luring him to Buffalo. Defensive tackle Damon Harrison‘s contract is also up, but he’s a restricted free agent. The 26-year-old, one of the Jets’ few bright spots in 2014, is likely to receive the max tender.

Running back Bilal Powell has looked good at times, but he’s not irreplaceable and there’s no guarantee that the new regime will want him back. Safety Jaiquawn Jarrett (restricted) could also be retained after a solid season, including a heroic effort in the Jets’ Week 10 win over the Steelers.

Possible Cap Casualties

As mentioned earlier, Harvin could be shown the door rather than kept f0r his $10.5MM salary. Cutting Harvin wouldn’t necessarily mean parting ways with him, of course, as the Jets could look to work out a more team-friendly deal. Never say never, but Harvin could find it difficult to land a multi-year deal at an AAV that would put him in the top 15 of wide receivers, especially when considering that the quality of the market at the position. The Jets could release him and instead look to sign him to a one-year pillow deal for less money, but then again, there will be other suitors looking to do the same. It should also be noted that keeping Harvin means that the Jets would be sending a fourth-round choice to Seattle rather than a sixth-round pick.

Many expected that the Jets would put Chris Johnson‘s soft hands to good use as a security blanket for Smith in 2014. Aside from a few games, however, we didn’t see CJ2K catch many balls out of the backfield. When you factor in Johnson’s January arrest, his declining speed, the new regime in New York, and the roughly $3.5MM they’d save by bouncing him, it’s very possible that Johnson could be let go this offseason.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

One of the few silver linings to the Jets’ 2014 season was the play of Muhammad Wilkerson. The Jets have the Temple product under contract through 2015 after exercising his fifth-year option, but they don’t want to let him reach the open market after the season. In 2012, the 25-year-old graded out as the second-best 3-4 defensive end in 2012 behind superstar J.J. Watt, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In 2013, he recorded 64 tackles and 10.5 sacks and, per PFF, he played more defensive snaps (1,067) than any other 3-4 DE. This past year, Wilkerson recorded six sacks and five pass deflections in a 13-game season as he disrupted opposing offenses in both facets of the game. The Jets want to get to the table with Wilkerson and his agent, but they’ll have to address their main areas of need first.

Exercising Wilkerson’s fifth-year option cost the Jets ~$6.97MM and doing the same for linebacker Quinton Coples would likely cost them more. Would that be worthwhile for the Jets after watching him struggle at times with the transition from defensive end to linebacker? Coples had a career best 6.5 sacks in 2014, but they’ll probably take their chances and let him play out his final season. The Jets have until May 3rd to make the call on Coples.

Overall Outlook

The Jets cleaned house at the end of the 2014 season with a clear desire to wipe the slate clean. With a significant number of players heading towards free agency, the Jets have a chance to really shake things up. They can be expected to spend big on a cornerback, but they won’t find themselves in playoff contention without a significant upgrade at quarterback. The Jets could shoot for the moon by trading for Cutler or one of the top two quarterbacks in this year’s draft, but they could also wait until next offseason and treat 2015 as a transitional year. Jets fans are restless, but the bar has also been set low, so Maccagnan & Co. won’t have to go all out unless directed otherwise by ownership.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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