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2014 NFL Roster Counts

June 25th, 2014 at 2:37pm CST by Luke Adams

On Tuesday, I took a look at the teams around the NFL who currently have open roster spots, most or all of which figure to be filled in time for the beginning of training camps next month. Since then, a handful of roster moves have been made around the league, with the Falcons creating a third available roster slot, while the Seahawks briefly opening up a spot on their 90-man roster before filling it again.

These minor transactions figure to be frequent over the next several weeks and months, so we’ve created this page to keep tabs on teams’ roster counts around the NFL throughout the year. This tracker, which can be found anytime under the “PFR Features” sidebar on the right-hand side of our site, will be maintained and updated throughout the offseason and the regular season, as the roster limit declines from 90 players to 75 and eventually to 53.

If you have any corrections, please contact us. Here are 2014’s NFL roster counts:

Updated 1-5-14 (8:07am CT)

  • Baltimore Ravens (53)
  • Carolina Panthers (53)
  • Dallas Cowboys (53)
  • Denver Broncos (53)
  • Green Bay Packers (53)
  • Indianapolis Colts (53)

    • New England Patriots (53)

  • Seattle Seahawks (53)

Extension Candidate: Jermaine Gresham

June 25th, 2014 at 10:17am CST by Luke Adams

A former first-round pick, Bengals tight end Jermaine Gresham has earned spots in two Pro Bowls during the first four years of his NFL career, accumulating 218 total receptions for 2,262 yards and 19 touchdowns in 59 career overall contests. In many instances, those kind of impressive results would have the player’s team working hard to ensure he remains under contract beyond the 2014 season, the final year of his rookie deal.Jermaine Gresham

In Cincinnati though, the Bengals’ interest in a long-term commitment to Gresham remains unclear. The team has a pair of more pressing extension candidates to worry about this summer, with quarterback Andy Dalton and standout linebacker Vontaze Burfict both eligible for new deals. Still, when head coach Marvin Lewis spoke about a Dalton extension on SiriusXM NFL Radio earlier this month, he pointed out that getting something done with the signal-caller would allow the club to focus on locking up other players — although he didn’t mention Gresham by name, Lewis identified “our tight end” as one of those extension candidates.

Of course, while Lewis has some input on roster decisions, it’ll be the front office, led by general manager Mike Brown, that ultimately has the final say on whether Gresham remains in Cincinnati for the long term. And there have been a few signals that extending the tight end’s contract may not be in the club’s plans. For one, just three years after selecting Gresham 21st overall in the draft, the Bengals picked a tight end again at No. 21 a year ago, snatching up Tyler Eifert out of Notre Dame. Eifert didn’t immediately usurp Gresham as the No. 1 option at the position, but the Bengals took advantage of his presence by implementing a two-tight-end offense, and the rookie certainly cut into Gresham’s targets. After seeing 92 passes thrown his way in 2012, Gresham was targeted just 63 times last season, with Eifert earning 56 targets of his own.

While the Bengals’ decision to draft Eifert a year ago may have been largely a product of the team wanting to run an offense with two pass-catching tight ends, Cincinnati also had reason to want an insurance policy for Gresham. Even though he was coming off consecutive Pro Bowl seasons, Gresham actually ranked dead last among 62 qualified tight ends in ’12, according to Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required), which docked him for his poor run blocking and an inability to avoid penalties. In both 2012 and 2013, no other tight end was called for more penalties than Gresham, who also tied for the most fumbles (five) among tight ends during those two seasons.

Just as one can’t overlook Gresham’s propensity to make mistakes though, his playmaking ability shouldn’t be underrated — the 26-year-old typically ranks among the tight end leaders when it comes to yards after catch and missed tackles. After Cincinnati lost Andrew Hawkins in free agency this offseason, the team will be relying more than ever on its tight ends to help carry the receiving load alongside A.J. Green and Marvin Jones, so even with Dalton potentially looking Eifert’s way more often, Gresham could be primed for a productive contract year.

Ultimately, I think the Bengals will wait to open extension talks with Gresham, whose place on the roster going forward looks significantly more precarious than it did a year ago. As ESPN.com’s Coley Harvey observed recently in a mailbag, Gresham’s relationship with fans in Cincinnati has been rocky, and the young tight end may ultimately command more on the open market than the Bengals are willing to pay. I do expect the team to make some effort to re-up Gresham before he reaches unrestricted free agency, but Dalton and Burfict will be the priorities, and if Eifert continues to emerge in his second year, there won’t be as much urgency for the Bengals to negotiate with Gresham.

If and when the two sides do engage in contract discussions, Brandon Pettigrew‘s new contract with the Lions may serve as a logical point of comparison. Pettigrew’s career per-year averages of about 57 receptions and 566 receiving yards are essentially identical to Gresham’s (55 and 566), and Pettigrew will also cede targets to a young first-round tight end (Eric Ebron) going forward. The Lions locked up Pettigrew this spring for four years and $16MM, with $5.2MM in guaranteed money. If the Bengals can get Gresham for a little cheaper than that, I think the club will be interested in working out an extension. If Gresham is aiming to top Pettigrew’s deal, he’s more likely to do it on the open market than in Cincinnati.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Browns

June 24th, 2014 at 10:26pm CST by Zachary Links

Notable signings:

Notable losses:

Extensions and restructures:

Trades:

  • Acquired a first-round pick (No. 9), a 2015 first-round pick, and a 2015 fourth-round pick from the Bills in exchange for a first-round pick (No. 4).
  • Acquired a first-round pick (No. 8) from the Vikings in exchange for a first-round pick (No. 9) and a fifth-round pick (No. 145).
  • Acquired a first-round pick (No. 22) from the Eagles in exchange for a first-round pick (No. 26) and a third-round pick (No. 83).
  • Acquired a third-round pick (No. 94) from the 49ers in exchange for a fourth-round pick (No. 106) and a sixth-round pick (No. 180).
  • Acquired a 2015 sixth-round pick from the Ravens in exchange for a seventh-round pick (No. 218).

Draft picks:

  • Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State (1.8)
  • Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M (1.22): Signed
  • Joel Bitonio, OT, Nevada (2.35): Signed
  • Chris Kirksey, LB, Iowa (3.71): Signed
  • Terrance West, RB, Towson (3.94): Signed
  • Pierre Desir, CB, Lindenwood (4.127): Signed

Other:

Ask your non-football watching mom to name a player out of this year’s NFL draft and, odds are, she won’t come up with Jadeveon Clowney, Greg Robinson, Blake Bortles, or Sammy Watkins. Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel was the 22nd player taken in the May draft, but you wouldn’t know it based on the way it was covered. In Manziel, the Browns potentially got their quarterback of the future. They also opened themselves up to a media circus and questions regarding inflatable swans and top 40 rappers.NFL: Cleveland Browns-Minicamp

Can Manziel break the Browns’ prodigious streak of disappointing quarterbacks? Owner Jimmy Haslam and at least one homeless gentleman in Cleveland seem to think so. Johnny Football can scramble like few others can, has good instincts at times, and can also air it out when needed. On the flip side, Manziel is under 6’0″, has questionable accuracy, and some get the sense that he’s more into partying than football. How it all works out for the Browns is anyone’s guess. In the short-term, Manziel is working on beating out incumbent Brian Hoyer for the starting job. If it were up to fan referendum, Manziel would win in a landslide, but coach Mike Pettine has spoken highly of Hoyer.

While everyone fawns and/or frets over Manziel, Browns top pick Justin Gilbert is enjoying the solitude. More people should be talking about Gilbert though. The former Oklahoma State cornerback was clearly the best at his position in this year’s class, in our humble opinion, which is why the Browns shuffled from No. 4 to No. 9 back up to No. 8 to land him. With Gilbert in the fold, the Browns have a worthy sidekick for Joe Haden who has established himself as one of the very best (maybe the best) cornerbacks in the NFL. Gilbert’s coverage still needs some work, but he already has NFL-grade ball skills and should make an immediate impact this season.

Speaking of Haden, the Browns locked up their star CB for the long haul with a five year, $67.5MM deal that will keep him in Cleveland through 2019. The pact, which includes $22.678MM guaranteed, won’t have Haden resting on his laurels. “This contract makes me want to play like the best cornerback in the league,” Haden told reporters after the deal was announced. The deal certainly pays Haden like he’s the best CB in the league. While the $13.6MM average annual value on the extension itself is a little less than what Seattle’s Richard Sherman got ($14MM per year), Haden’s new pact includes a $14MM signing bonus, $22MM in fully guaranteed money, and another $23MM that’s guaranteed for injury only, all numbers that exceed what Sherman received.

Elsewhere in the secondary, the Browns signed hard-hitting veteran safety Donte Whitner. The four-year, $28MM deal makes Whitner a top ten safety in terms of salary and gives the Browns a fill-in for the departed T.J. Ward. The 28-year-old is coming off of back-to-back Pro Bowl seasons and figures to bring the boom, even though he has decided against dropping the “W” from his surname.

Whoever is under center for the Browns in 2014 will have the pleasure of working with All-Pro center Alex Mack. That seemed to be anything but a certainty for much of the offseason. Tons of teams showed interest and the Jaguars made an aggressive pitch for him by coming up with a five-year, $42MM offer sheet to try and bring him down south. Ultimately, however, the Browns matched the offer sheet and avoided having to fill a massive, massive hole on their offensive line. Mack will earn $10MM this year, $8MM in 2015, and he can earn $8MM in 2016 if he doesn’t opt out. Mack, 28, has ranked among the top 10 centers according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) in each one of his five seasons since entering the league in 2009. In 2013, he placed fourth overall, grading well above-average as both a pass blocker and a run blocker. Keeping Mack wasn’t cheap, but it’s well worth it for the Browns, especially if they plan on rolling with a rookie QB.

Mack will lead an offensive line that will be charged with opening up holes for the speedy Ben Tate. Tate has spent the last few years as Arian Foster‘s understudy in Houston and each time Foster hit the injured list with a bum hamstring, Tate filled in admirably and showed that he can be a starting caliber running back. It was a depressed market for RBs this offseason and the soon-to-be 26-year-old got a deal that could wind up being a one-year, $2.5MM and has a ceiling of just $7MM over two years. Even though Tate has had injury woes of his own, including broken ribs last season, we’re predicting that this deal will be a major win for the Browns.

To upgrade their receiving corps, the Browns plucked promising receiver Andrew Hawkins away from the Bengals. The four-year, $13.6MM deal ($6.8MM guaranteed) is a bit of a gamble and explains why the Bengals didn’t bother to match. The 28-year-old had his best year in 2012, racking up 51 catches for 533 yards and four touchdowns. However, he began 2013 on the IR with a bum ankle and only recorded 12 receptions in the season’s second half. Obviously, Cleveland is expecting bigger things out of him going forward.

Hawkins was supposed to serve as a complement to No. 1 WR Josh Gordon, but a season long suspension for marijuana use threw a wrench into those plans. Gordon was an absolute stud in 2013, hauling in 87 catches for 1,646 yards and nine touchdowns in 14 games. The Browns have added other bodies this offseason, but they haven’t exactly found a Gordon replacement. Miles Austin was once viewed as a top wide receiver, but his hamstring issues kept him off the field for much of last season. Veteran Nate Burleson was also brought aboard, but he’s cut out for a supporting role, not a starring one.

On the other side of the ball, the Browns landed veteran linebacker Karlos Dansby in free agency with a four-year, $24MM deal. Dansby, who turns 33 in the fall, recorded 121 tackles, 6.5 sacks, and a career-high four interceptions, including two for touchdowns for the Cardinals last season. Pro Football Focus had Dansby ranked fifth among inside linebackers last seasons and gave him high marks for his pass coverage. The Browns saw locker room leader D’Qwell Jackson leave for the Colts but in Dansby they found a very suitable replacement. It’s possible that Jackson, who is two years younger than Dansby, will prove to be the better investment over the long haul. In the short term, however, Dansby might represent a decent-sized upgrade.

Some of the Browns’ biggest changes this offseason came off the field. The Browns installed Pettine, a Rex Ryan disciple and defensive guru, to take over for the well-liked Rob Chudzinski. In his first (and only) year as the Bills’ defensive coordinator, Pettine took Buffalo from the 27th ranked defense in the league to a top-five unit according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Joining Pettine on staff will be Kyle Shanahan and Jim O’Neil as offensive and defensive coordinators. Then, after hiring Pettine, the Browns underwent a major front office shakeup when they named Ray Farmer as the team’s new General Manager and bounced predecessor Michael Lombardi. CEO Joe Banner also got the heave-ho in the shuffle. Farmer has made his mark on the franchise since taking over, but if you’re inclined to believe that the Manziel pick came from upper management, you have to wonder if he’ll truly have full autonomy in all decisions.

Spotrac and Over The Cap were used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NFL Teams With Open Roster Spots

June 24th, 2014 at 1:40pm CST by Luke Adams

For many teams around the NFL, the 90 players on the roster when last week’s minicamps ended are the same 90 players the club hopes to carry into training camp next month. We should expect to see some minor roster shuffling over the next few weeks, but for the most part, teams have a pretty good idea of which players will be participating in camp and battling for spots on the regular-season roster a few weeks from now.

Still, not all 32 teams around the league have full 90-man rosters at this point. In a couple instances, recent unanticipated retirements have created roster openings, whereas other clubs may simply be keeping their options open and weighing multiple possibilities as training camp nears. In any case, by our count, there are seven NFL teams that currently have open slots on their 90-man rosters. Here’s the breakdown:

  • Atlanta Falcons (2): Since maxing out the 90-man roster with draft picks and rookie free agents, the Falcons have made three cuts and moved Sean Weatherspoon to injured reserve following his season-ending Achilles injury. During that same span, they’ve only signed two players, so there should be two open spots on the roster at the moment.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2): The Bucs signed a pair of tryout players to contracts last week, adding David Gettis and Ronald Talley, but also cut four players. Over the weekend, Scott Smith of Buccaneers.com explored how the team might fill the two openings on its roster.
  • Cincinnati Bengals (1): Running back Jeff Scott was waived by the Bengals last week, and the club has yet to sign a replacement.
  • Cleveland Browns (1): Like the Bengals, the Browns made a cut a week ago (Earl Bennett) and haven’t yet filled his spot on the roster.
  • Denver Broncos (1): Denver hasn’t made a roster addition since waiving Ramon Harewood last month, so the team should have one spot available.
  • Green Bay Packers (1): A neck injury forced Johnathan Franklin into early retirement and forced the Packers to waive him with an injured player designation, creating an empty spot on the 90-man roster.
  • San Francisco 49ers (1): Eric Wright‘s retirement announcement created an opening on the Niners’ roster last Tuesday.

The Dolphins’ Options At Center

June 23rd, 2014 at 8:51pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Dolphins’ offensive line has been the subject of scrutiny both on- and off-the-field over the past 12 months — the unit not only dealt with the Jonathan Martin/Richie Incognito bullying scandal that marred Miami’s entire 2013 season, but struggled both in run-blocking and protecting Ryan Tannehill, ranking 18th and 30th in those areas, respectively, according to Football Outsiders’ metrics. The team added reinforcements in Branden Albert, Shelley Smith, and Ju’Wuan James during the offseason, but was dealt another blow today, losing center Mike Pouncey for at least three months after he went underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip.

Per Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, the tear was “significant,” and the postulated 90-day absence is the absolute minimum for Pouncey; on such a timetable, the 24-year-old would miss three or four games. However, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes, any unforeseen complications involving the injury and/or recovery could conceivably force Miami to place Pouncey on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, causing him to miss a minimum of six games.

Losing Pouncey for any amount of time would be significant for the Dolphins, as the 2013 Pro Bowler is one of the best centers in the NFL. After being drafted 15th overall in the 2011 draft, he has started 46 out of possible 48 games, and graded out as a top-13 center in both 2012 and 2013, according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced ratings.

Miami has several replacement options on its roster if it chooses to look internally for help. 2013 undrafted free agent Sam Brenner would probably get the first crack at the job, writes James Walker of ESPN.com; in fact, Walker tweets a projected Pouncey-less offensive line consisting of Albert, Dallas Thomas, Brenner, Smith, and James from left-to-right. Brenner, though, struggled in his limited opportunities at guard last season. Nate Garner is also capable of playing center in a pinch, as he replaced Pouncey for two games last year.

Chris Perkins of the Sun-Sentinel posits that Smith could also be a candidate to play center, though that would force the Dolphins to find a new right guard. And though unsigned rookie Billy Turner could potentially fill that role, the right side of Miami’s line would then consist of two first-year players. Complicating matters is that Turner had primarily been practicing at left guard — putting Smith at center and Turner at right guard would mean the Dolphins’ front five would have two players lining up at new positions.

A scan of our list of remaining free agents shows that there are several unsigned centers who could, if not start, at least add depth in Miami. Fernando Velasco and Kyle Cook were the primary starters for the Steelers and Bengals, respectively, in 2013, but both were below-average according to PFF. Robert Turner, Ryan Cook, and Dan Koppen all played well in 2012, but none played significant snaps last season. David Baas was also above-average two seasons ago, but is battling injuries and his return to the NFL is questionable. However, none of these players has experience in the type of up-tempo offense that new Dolphins coordinator Bill Lazor is implementing — a scheme that will require a center to “be smart and in shape,” tweets Walker.

The Dolphins head into 2014 expected to compete to for a playoff spot, and head coach Joe Philbin and his staff could be ousted if the team falters. Miami won’t want to risk fielding an offensive line that lacks competence at center, so even if Brenner ends up as Pouncey’s replacement, I’d expect them to at least bring in a veteran as depth during training camp and the early part of the regular season.

Offset Language

June 23rd, 2014 at 12:05pm CST by Luke Adams

Since the NFL’s latest Collective Bargaining Agreement has made rookie contracts fairly regimented, negotiations between teams and draft picks have become smoother than ever, with few – if any – players expected to be unsigned by the time training camp gets underway. At the moment, only six players have yet to ink their rookie deals, including three first-round picks: Justin Gilbert (Browns), Taylor Lewan (Titans), and Dominique Easley (Patriots).

Although we don’t know for sure what the holdup is with those three players, one factor that continues to play a role in contracts for first-round picks relates to offset language. Over the last several years, only a handful of players in each year have managed to avoid having offsets language written into their deals. In most cases, a lack of offsets for a player simply relies on which team drafted him — clubs like the Rams and Jaguars traditionally haven’t pushed to include offsets in contracts for their top picks, even in an era where most other teams around the league do.

Offset language relates to what happens to a player’s salary if he’s cut during the first four years of his career, while he’s still playing on his rookie contract. For the top 15 to 20 picks in the draft, those four-year salaries will be fully guaranteed, even if a player is waived at some point during those four seasons. For example, if a player has $4MM in guaranteed money remaining on his contract and is cut, he’ll still be owed that $4MM.

However, if a team has written offset language into the contract, that club can save some money if and when the player signs with a new team. For example, if that player who had $4MM in guaranteed money left on his contract signs with a new club on a $1MM deal, his old team would only be on the hook for $3MM, with the new team making up the difference. If there’s no offset language on that first deal, the old team would continue to be on the hook for the full $4MM, and the player would simply earn an additional $1MM from his new club.

Although the negotiation of offset language might potentially delay a rookie’s signing, the offsets rarely come into play, since few top picks flame out badly enough that they’re released during their first four seasons. And even in those rare instances, if a player has performed poorly enough to be cut in his first few years, he likely won’t sign a lucrative deal elsewhere, so offset language wouldn’t help his old club recover more than perhaps the league minimum.

As noted above, the Rams and Jaguars are among the teams who aren’t averse to forgoing offsets in their agreements with top picks, so Greg Robinson, Blake Bortles, and Aaron Donald don’t have offset language in their first NFL contracts.

Note: This is a PFR Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to free agency, trades, or other aspects of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Information from OverTheCap.com was used in the creation of this post.

PFR Originals: 6/15/14 – 6/22/14

June 22nd, 2014 at 2:21pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • We continued our Extension Candidate series, as I examined Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph (link), Rory Parks looked at Steelers right tackle Marcus Gilbert (link), Luke Adams wrote about Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas (link), and Rob DiRe profiled Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant (link).
  • In a poll, Luke asked where you think free agent cornerback Brandon Flowers will sign; the Chargers, Patriots, and a “mystery team” were the most popular answers. Thanks for voting!
  • As always, you can follow PFR on a variety of social media platforms, including Facebook, Twitter, Google+, and more.

Extension Candidate: Demaryius Thomas

June 20th, 2014 at 1:10pm CST by Luke Adams

Earlier this offseason, the Broncos watched as a receiver who averaged 86 receptions, 1,176 yards, and 12 touchdowns during his last two seasons in Denver departed in free agency, signing a five-year deal with the Jets. Although the Broncos reportedly had some interest in re-signing Eric Decker, the team didn’t appear to go to great lengths to retain him, in part because Denver still has another wideout, Demaryius Thomas, who is a year away from free agency himself and matched or exceeded Decker’s numbers in those two seasons.Dec 22, 2014; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas (88) against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals won 37-28. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

After hauling in just 54 passes during his first two NFL seasons, Thomas broke out when Peyton Manning arrived in Denver, averaging 93 catches, 1,432 yards, and 12 TDs in 2012 and 2013. In addition to posting massive numbers in the traditional receiving categories, Thomas also performed extremely well according to advanced stats. Football Outsiders ranked him third in 2012 and first in 2013 in terms of DYAR, while Pro Football Focus’ grades had him as the league’s second-best wideout in 2012 and fifth-best in 2013 (subscription required).

When Decker hit free agency, his true value was subject to increased scrutiny. Many observers wondered how much of Decker’s production was tied to the fact that he was catching passes from Manning and benefiting from defenses focusing on Thomas, Wes Welker, and the Broncos’ other weapons. It’s fair to assume that Thomas will face the same questions, and it’s also reasonable to conclude that perhaps he wouldn’t be posting the same sort of numbers in an offense with a mediocre quarterback throwing him the ball, into more frequent double or triple coverage.

Still, Thomas’ combination of size, speed, and hands make him one of the league’s better wideouts no matter whose passes he’s catching and who’s covering him, and his relative youth (26) means he should have plenty more prime years on the way. So it makes sense that the Broncos have initiated extension talks with the former 22nd overall pick, perhaps even offering him a new five-year contract already, though there are conflicting reports on whether an official proposal is actually on the table.

A look at the list of top wide receiver contracts at OverTheCap.com shows that plenty of five-year deals have been signed in recent years — Greg Jennings ($45MM), Vincent Jackson ($55MM), Dwayne Bowe ($56MM), Mike Wallace ($60MM), and Percy Harvin ($64.25MM) are just a few of the players whose current contracts span five years and have base values that range from between $9-13MM annually. In his talks with the Broncos, it makes sense that Thomas and his reps would push to exceed the figures for players like Wallace and Harvin, whose resumés weren’t quite as impressive as the Denver receiver’s is.

Only two receivers have a larger per-year value on their current contracts than Harvin, with Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald in a stratosphere all on their own, averaging more than $16MM per season. Both players are also on seven-year deals, rather than five-year pacts. Johnson signed his latest contract after a season in which he grabbed 16 touchdowns and nearly racked up 1,700 receiving yards, while Fitzgerald’s extension came on the heels of four straight Pro Bowl seasons in which he never caught less than 90 balls, even when Derek Anderson and John Skelton were the ones throwing those balls.

Based on his accomplishments so far, Thomas doesn’t appear qualified to join Johnson and Fitzgerald in that $16MM+ range, but it seems clear he should surpass Harvin and potentially become the third-highest-paid receiver in the NFL, depending on what happens with Dez Bryant and 2015’s other free agents. I’d expect Denver to be exploring a deal in the range of $65MM for five new years, with $20MM+ in guaranteed money.

Whether that sort of commitment appeals to Thomas is the big question. Another huge year could move him a step closer to Megatron/Fitzgerald territory, perhaps warranting a deal in the neighborhood of $14-15MM annually. However, the former Georgia Tech standout might be wise not to overplay his hand. Not reaching an agreement with the Broncos this year means the team could use its franchise tag on him next year, postponing his free agency until 2016. By that point, there’s a decent chance Manning will no longer be quarterbacking in Denver, which may make the Broncos reluctant to spend huge money on a receiver if they’re not confident about a new signal-caller getting him the ball. Thomas would still be in line for a big multiyear deal on the open market, but the best way to maximize his payday could be to ink that next contract when his numbers are still getting that Manning bump — that means doing it sooner rather than later.

As such, I expect we’ll see Thomas and the Broncos reach a long-term agreement before or during training camp. If it’s a five-year deal, something in the range of $65-70MM seems about right to me. Whether the two sides agree with that assessment remains to be seen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Marcus Gilbert

June 16th, 2014 at 9:00pm CST by Rory Parks

We learned yesterday that Drew Rosenhaus, the agent for Steelers’ right tackle Marcus Gilbert, had approached the club about a possible long-term deal for Gilbert. Although those talks are in the preliminary stages at this point, it may behoove the Steelers, who have struggled to get consistent production from their offensive line in recent years, to act before Gilbert hits the open market at the end of this season.

NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay PackersTo be certain, Gilbert is not an elite talent. Although we caution that Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics are not the be-all and end-all of player evaluation, those metrics combined with the “eye test” make for a fairly valuable analytical tool, and in this instance, the PFF grades (subscription required) accurately suggest that Gilbert is a solid pass blocker but struggles with run blocking. As compared to other offensive tackles, Gilbert is decidedly average, ranking 36th out of 76 qualified tackles in 2011, his rookie season, and 50th out of 76 in 2013 (he played only five games in 2012 after suffering an ankle injury in Week 6 of that season).

Nonetheless, even average lineman fared pretty well in free agency this year. As we noted yesterday, right tackles Austin Howard, Breno Giacomini, and Michael Oher all received four- or five-year deals worth between $4MM and $6MM per season. Only one of those players–Giacomini–performed better than Gilbert in 2013, according to PFF, and none of them were better in 2011. As such, Gilbert could reasonably demand at least as much, and will certainly get it should he hit free agency.

Gilbert, taken in the second round of the 2011 draft, is part of Pittsburgh’s recent movement to provide better protection to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and to revive their once-dominant running game. He is one of four offensive linemen taken in the first or second round in the past five years, along with tackle Mike Adams, guard David DeCastro, and recently-extended center Maurkice Pouncey. Although DeCastro and Pouncey have played well, Adams has struggled in his two seasons in the league, and the Steelers would like to be confident in at least one of their bookends in the long term.

Although he has stated that he loves playing in Pittsburgh and would not want to go elsewhere, the contracts that his peers received this offseason–along with the fact that he is represented by Rosenhaus–suggest that Gilbert will not be taking a hometown discount. However, solid tackles are hard to find, and the Steelers have gone through enough turmoil on their line in recent seasons to let a chance at real stability walk away (indeed, the chance to a keep core group of players in a given unit intact is an oft-overlooked but critical component of these discussions). It may be difficult to keep Gilbert on board, given that Roethlisberger, Jason Worilds, and Cortez Allen are also extension candidates, but Pittsburgh may have no other choice.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Extension Candidate: Kyle Rudolph

June 15th, 2014 at 5:10pm CST by Dallas Robinson

New Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner is known as something of a “tight end whisperer” — his ability to induce production out of the position, with players like Antonio Gates and Jordan Cameron, is virtually unparallelled in the NFL. His newest protégé is Kyle Rudolph, who is entering not only his fourth season in the league but the final year of his rookie contract, which is set to pay him a base salary of nearly $1MM. The Vikings, then, in something of a buy-low opportunity, may look to extend the 24-year-old before 2014, when his talents, combined with Turner’s instruction, could lead to a monster season, allowing Rudolph to price himself out of Minnesota’s range.

Rudolph, a 2011 second-round pick, has accrued decidedly mediocre statistics over the course of his career — he averaged 39 receptions for 371 yards and six toNFL: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lionsuchdowns over his first two seasons; he nearly matched those numbers in 2013, however, despite starting only eight games due to a fractured foot. Advanced metrics paint a more favorable picture of Rudolph, as he graded as a top-15 tight end in both 2011 and 2012, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). DYAR, a Football Outsiders statistic that measures only receiving ability (omitting blocking) wasn’t quite as impressed — over the past three seasons, Rudolph ranked 43rd, 28th, and 27th. Of course, the Vikings haven’t had the most capable quarterbacks delivering the ball over that span, as Rudolph caught passes from the likes of Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, and a near-retirement Donovan McNabb.

For his part, Rudolph has expressed his desire to remain with the Vikings. “…[M]y financial situation is completely in their hands right now,” Rudolph told Chris Tomasson of the Pioneer Press. “I’ve got one year left on my deal here and I’m extremely excited for the changes that have been made around here (under first-year coach Mike Zimmer)…All I can worry about is going out and being successful. The contract will take care of itself. … I’d be more than happy to stay here for a long time.” However, as of mid-April, the Vikings had not approached him about an extension, according to Matt Vensel of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.

Tight end contracts can be more difficult to evaluate than other positions because of the vast differences between players’ usage and roles. Having said that, it’s probably safe to disregard any potential deal regarding Jimmy Graham, as well as the 2012 extension signed by Rob Gronkowski, as the two are considered to be in completely different stratosphere. Also complicating matters is Rudolph’s youth — at 24, he is far younger than were most tight ends who received extensions.

Martellus Bennett of the Bears and Dennis Pitta of the Ravens offer the two best options when looking for comparable players and a potential contract. Bennett, who was 25 when he signed as a free agent with Chicago, had put up analogous numbers to Rudolph, but was a free agent — he received $20.4MM over five years, with $5.215MM in guarantees. Pitta has better statistics to Rudolph, but, like the Viking, was coming off an injury. He re-signed with Baltimore in late February, so while the deal was nominally an extension, he was effectively a free agent, as free agency began less than two weeks later. Pitta’s contract, signed when he was four years older than Rudolph, was worth $32MM over five years, $16MM of which was guaranteed.

I would set Bennett’s contract as the floor, and Pitta’s deal the ceiling, when discussing a Rudolph extension. A deal worth four to five years, with an AAV of $5.5MM, and guarantees in the $10-12MM range wouldn’t be out of the question. However, the Vikings need to factor in the risk of a huge 2014 season by Rudolph into their valuation; if he succeeds on the level of other Turner-coached tight ends, Rudolph could angle for an even larger contract. So perhaps the team, in the interest of getting a deal done now, offers a tad more in either AAV or guarantees in order to stave off a potential free agent negotiation.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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