PFR Originals News & Rumors

Complete 2014 NFL Draft Order

The NFL officially announced the 32 compensatory picks for the 2014 draft earlier this week, which means the order for May’s draft has been set. We’re still a few weeks away from the draft getting underway on May 8, so picks could still change hands in trades right up until that date. If they do, we’ll be sure to update this list, which can be found anytime on the right-hand sidebar under “PFR Features.”

Here’s the complete 2014 NFL draft order:

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  1. Houston Texans
  2. St. Louis Rams (from Washington)
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars
  4. Cleveland Browns
  5. Oakland Raiders
  6. Atlanta Falcons
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  8. Minnesota Vikings
  9. Buffalo Bills
  10. Detroit Lions
  11. Tennessee Titans
  12. New York Giants
  13. St. Louis Rams
  14. Chicago Bears
  15. Pittsburgh Steelers
  16. Dallas Cowboys
  17. Baltimore Ravens
  18. New York Jets
  19. Miami Dolphins
  20. Arizona Cardinals
  21. Green Bay Packers
  22. Philadelphia Eagles
  23. Kansas City Chiefs
  24. Cincinnati Bengals
  25. San Diego Chargers
  26. Cleveland Browns (from Indianapolis)
  27. New Orleans Saints
  28. Carolina Panthers
  29. New England Patriots
  30. San Francisco 49ers
  31. Denver Broncos
  32. Seattle Seahawks

Round 2

  1. Houston Texans
  2. Washington Redskins
  3. Cleveland Browns
  4. Oakland Raiders
  5. Atlanta Falcons
  6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  7. Jacksonville Jaguars
  8. Minnesota Vikings
  9. Buffalo Bills
  10. Tennessee Titans
  11. New York Giants
  12. St. Louis Rams
  13. Detroit Lions
  14. Pittsburgh Steelers
  15. Dallas Cowboys
  16. Baltimore Ravens
  17. New York Jets
  18. Miami Dolphins
  19. Chicago Bears
  20. Arizona Cardinals
  21. Green Bay Packers
  22. Philadelphia Eagles
  23. Cincinnati Bengals
  24. San Francisco 49ers (from Kansas City)
  25. San Diego Chargers
  26. New Orleans Saints
  27. Indianapolis Colts
  28. Carolina Panthers
  29. San Francisco 49ers
  30. New England Patriots
  31. Denver Broncos
  32. Seattle Seahawks

Round 3

  1. Houston Texans
  2. Washington Redskins
  3. Oakland Raiders
  4. Atlanta Falcons
  5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  6. Jacksonville Jaguars
  7. Cleveland Browns
  8. Minnesota Vikings
  9. Buffalo Bills
  10. New York Giants
  11. St. Louis Rams
  12. Detroit Lions
  13. San Francisco 49ers (from Tennessee)
  14. Dallas Cowboys
  15. Baltimore Ravens
  16. New York Jets
  17. Miami Dolphins
  18. Chicago Bears
  19. Cleveland Browns (from Pittsburgh)
  20. Arizona Cardinals
  21. Green Bay Packers
  22. Philadelphia Eagles
  23. Kansas City Chiefs
  24. Cincinnati Bengals
  25. San Diego Chargers
  26. Indianapolis Colts
  27. New Orleans Saints
  28. Carolina Panthers
  29. New England Patriots
  30. San Francisco 49ers
  31. Denver Broncos
  32. Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle)
  33. Pittsburgh Steelers (compensatory)
  34. Green Bay Packers (compensatory)
  35. Baltimore Ravens (compensatory)
  36. San Francisco 49ers (compensatory)

Round 4

  1. Houston Texans
  2. Washington Redskins
  3. Atlanta Falcons
  4. New York Jets (from Tampa Bay)
  5. Jacksonville Jaguars
  6. Cleveland Browns
  7. Oakland Raiders
  8. Minnesota Vikings
  9. Buffalo Bills
  10. St. Louis Rams
  11. Detroit Lions
  12. Tennessee Titans
  13. New York Giants
  14. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Baltimore)
  15. New York Jets
  16. Miami Dolphins
  17. Chicago Bears
  18. Pittsburgh Steelers
  19. Dallas Cowboys
  20. Arizona Cardinals
  21. Green Bay Packers
  22. Philadelphia Eagles
  23. Cincinnati Bengals
  24. Kansas City Chiefs
  25. San Diego Chargers
  26. New Orleans Saints
  27. Cleveland Browns (from Indianapolis)
  28. Carolina Panthers
  29. San Francisco 49ers
  30. New England Patriots
  31. Denver Broncos
  32. Seattle Seahawks
  33. Detroit Lions (compensatory)
  34. Baltimore Ravens (compensatory)
  35. Houston Texans (compensatory)
  36. Detroit Lions (compensatory)
  37. New York Jets (compensatory)
  38. Baltimore Ravens (compensatory)
  39. Atlanta Falcons (compensatory)
  40. New England Patriots (compensatory)

Round 5

  1. Houston Texans
  2. Washington Redskins
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars
  5. Cleveland Browns
  6. Seattle Seahawks (from Oakland)
  7. Atlanta Falcons
  8. Minnesota Vikings
  9. Buffalo Bills
  10. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Detroit)
  11. Tennessee Titans
  12. New York Giants
  13. St. Louis Rams
  14. New York Jets
  15. Miami Dolphins
  16. Chicago Bears
  17. Pittsburgh Steelers
  18. Dallas Cowboys
  19. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Baltimore)
  20. Arizona Cardinals
  21. Green Bay Packers
  22. Philadelphia Eagles
  23. Kansas City Chiefs
  24. Cincinnati Bengals
  25. San Diego Chargers
  26. Indianapolis Colts
  27. New Orleans Saints
  28. Carolina Panthers
  29. New Orleans Saints (from New England via Philadelphia)
  30. San Francisco 49ers
  31. Denver Broncos
  32. Seattle Seahawks
  33. Pittsburgh Steelers (compensatory)
  34. New York Giants (compensatory)
  35. Baltimore Ravens (compensatory)
  36. Green Bay Packers (compensatory)

Round 6

  1. Houston Texans
  2. Washington Redskins
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars
  4. Cleveland Browns
  5. Houston Texans (from Oakland)
  6. Atlanta Falcons
  7. Chicago Bears (from Tampa Bay)
  8. Minnesota Vikings
  9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Buffalo)
  10. Tennessee Titans
  11. New York Giants
  12. St. Louis Rams
  13. Detroit Lions
  14. Miami Dolphins
  15. Chicago Bears
  16. Pittsburgh Steelers
  17. Kansas City Chiefs (from Dallas)
  18. Baltimore Ravens
  19. New York Jets
  20. Arizona Cardinals
  21. Green Bay Packers
  22. New England Patriots (from Philadelphia)
  23. Cincinnati Bengals
  24. Kansas City Chiefs
  25. San Diego Chargers
  26. New Orleans Saints
  27. Indianapolis Colts
  28. Carolina Panthers
  29. Jacksonville Jaguars (from San Francisco)
  30. New England Patriots
  31. Denver Broncos
  32. Seattle Seahawks
  33. New York Jets (compensatory)
  34. New York Jets (compensatory)
  35. Houston Texans (compensatory)
  36. Cincinnati Bengals (compensatory)
  37. New York Jets (compensatory)
  38. St. Louis Rams (compensatory)
  39. Pittsburgh Steelers (compensatory)

Round 7

  1. Houston Texans
  2. Washington Redskins
  3. Cleveland Browns
  4. Oakland Raiders
  5. Atlanta Falcons
  6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  7. Jacksonville Jaguars
  8. Minnesota Vikings
  9. Buffalo Bills
  10. Carolina Panthers (from New York Giants)
  11. St. Louis Rams
  12. Detroit Lions
  13. Tennessee Titans
  14. Dallas Cowboys (from Chicago)
  15. Pittsburgh Steelers
  16. Dallas Cowboys
  17. Indianapolis Colts (from Baltimore)
  18. New York Jets
  19. Miami Dolphins
  20. Oakland Raiders (from Arizona)
  21. Green Bay Packers
  22. Philadelphia Eagles
  23. Dallas Cowboys (from Kansas City)
  24. Cincinnati Bengals
  25. San Diego Chargers
  26. St. Louis Rams (from Indianapolis)
  27. San Francisco 49ers (from New Orleans)
  28. San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina)
  29. New England Patriots
  30. San Francisco 49ers
  31. Denver Broncos
  32. Oakland Raiders (from Seattle)
  33. Dallas Cowboys (compensatory)
  34. St. Louis Rams (compensatory)
  35. St. Louis Rams (compensatory)
  36. Dallas Cowboys (compensatory)
  37. Cincinnati Bengals (compensatory)
  38. Atlanta Falcons (compensatory)
  39. Dallas Cowboys (compensatory)
  40. Atlanta Falcons (compensatory)
  41. Houston Texans (compensatory)

NFL.com was used in the creation of this post.

Poll: Best Remaining Free Agent

It’s been an exciting and busy few days since the 2014 NFL league year officially opened Tuesday, and many of the top free agents have already relocated or re-signed with their respective teams. Also, marquee names released by clubs — like DeMarcus Ware and Darrelle Revis — have landed with top contenders priming for Super Bowl runs.

That being said, we’re interested in seeing who you think is the best remaining free agent. We’ll start with the players remaining from Luke Adams’ top 25 NFL free agents, then add players like Antonio Cromartie who were released by their teams and have yet to be signed.

Feel free to defend your vote in the comments section below.

Who Is The Best Remaining Free Agent?
Jared Allen 33.63% (601 votes)
Alex Mack 33.30% (595 votes)
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie 15.72% (281 votes)
Henry Melton 9.35% (167 votes)
Antonio Cromartie 3.30% (59 votes)
Chris Clemons (S) 2.80% (50 votes)
Other 1.90% (34 votes)
Total Votes: 1,787

PFR Originals: 3/3/14 – 3/9/14

Here’s the original content produced by the PFR staff this week:

Making Sense Of Legal Tampering Period

As the “reports” stream in of X team showing interest in Y player, a few of the league’s most respected journalists have weighed in to put all the action in its proper context.

Alterraun Verner and Michael Johnson have six and seven teams calling their agents, respectively. But, as Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio notes, unless those teams are independently leaking to the media that interest, the players’ camps figure to be the source of the links — which is nothing out of the ordinary.

But just making a call to show interest is not exactly front-page news. “I would have thought 20 teams would call,” a league source said regarding Johnson. “Maybe more. Anyone can place a call.” 

USA TODAY NFL writer Tom Pelissero paints the picture this way (via Twitter): “Any starting-caliber FA should have 9-10 teams express ‘interest.’ Of those, 3-4 are serious. Agent’s job to narrow to 1-2 by 4 p.m. Tuesday.” 

Pelissero continues, saying teams aren’t working to give out info. Just because a team calls on a free agent doesn’t mean he’s a priority.

Andrew Brandt, former Packers VP and theMMQB writer, pokes fun at the free agency charade: “Time of year when NFL agents’ reputations precede them. When some say ‘Six teams are interested’ means ‘Two called, I called four.'”

For NFL Network reporter Albert Breer, the tampering period has turned out to be a poker game. “Can’t do a deal yet,” Breer tweets, “so be careful with your cards.”

2014 Top 25 NFL Free Agents

2014’s NFL free agents can’t officially sign with any team except their own until Tuesday at 3:00pm central time, but plenty of deals could be agreed upon in principle this weekend, now that the league’s so-called legal tampering window is open. So before this year’s top available players start getting locked up, let’s take a look at the top players of the 2014 free agent class.

This list would have looked a lot more impressive right after the Super Bowl, but various transactions in recent weeks have taken many of the top-tier options off the market. For instance, standout cornerback Brent Grimes, one of the best cornerbacks headed for unrestricted free agency, re-signed with the Dolphins on a four-year, $32MM deal. Star Panthers defensive end Greg Hardy was franchised by Carolina, and has accepted the one-year offer, meaning that while the two sides can continue negotiating a long-term contract, Hardy can’t sign an offer sheet with another team. Steelers linebacker Jason Worilds did the same with his transition tender, taking him off the market.

As for Saints tight end Jimmy Graham and Redskins edge defender Brian Orakpo, neither player has accepted his franchise tag yet, but we’re not including them on this list since the cost for another team to sign them (a long-term deal, plus two first-round picks) likely ensures that Graham and Orakpo aren’t going anywhere.

So with those caveats out of the way, let’s dive right in! Here are Pro Football Rumors’ top 25 NFL free agents for 2014, along with some predictions on how much they might earn and what teams should be in the mix:

Top 25 NFL free agents:

1. Michael Bennett (DE): With Hardy off the market, Bennett represents the top pass rusher available, having racked up 8.5 sacks and 65 quarterback pressures for the Seahawks last season. Veteran free agents like Justin Tuck and Jared Allen may have topped Bennett’s sack total in 2013, but Bennett is the only one on the right side of age 30, and he compiled his excellent numbers in just over 600 snaps. After settling for a one-year, prove-it deal with Seattle a year ago, Bennett proved it, and now he’s set to cash in with a much larger payday. The Seahawks, Bears, and 49ers have been mentioned as potential suitors for the 28-year-old, but if he’s looking to cash in with the biggest offer available after winning a Super Bowl, Bennett could be a fit for teams like the Raiders and Jaguars, who have a ton of cap space and a glaring need at defensive end. In that event, Bennett could be looking at a long-term deal worth about $9-10MM per year.
Signed: Seattle Seahawks. Four years, $28.5MM, $10MM fully guaranteed.

2. Eugene Monroe (OT): There are several intriguing left tackles available this offseason, and Monroe looks like the best of the bunch. The Ravens tackle turns 27 next month, and has ranked sixth, 15th, and 12th in the last three years among all tackles, according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics. In other words, he’s still in his prime, and has already proven himself to be extremely effective and consistent. The Ravens have been trying to bring Monroe back and won’t give up that fight even if he reaches the open market, but they’ll face stiff competition from clubs like the Dolphins and Cardinals. Monroe is said to be seeking $10MM per year, and considering the horror show that was Miami’s offensive line in 2013 (both on and off the field), I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dolphins pay that kind of money to ensure they have stability at left tackle for 2014 and beyond.
Signed: Baltimore Ravens. Five years, $37.5MM, $19MM fully guaranteed.

3. Jairus Byrd (S): As Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor showed the world in last month’s Super Bowl, safeties have become increasingly important in today’s NFL as a way to disrupt an offense’s passing game. And there are few safeties in the league more dynamic than Byrd, who has grabbed 12 interceptions and forced eight fumbles in his last three seasons in Buffalo. The Bills continue to say they’re making an effort to re-sign their playmaking safety, but I get the sense that Byrd is eager to test the market, particularly with no franchise tag to restrict him this season. The Falcons, Colts, and Eagles should be among the suitors to watch, but I suspect Byrd may reunite with former Bills defensive coordinator Mike Pettine in Cleveland. I also think we could see Byrd become the league’s highest-paid safety by annual average value, surpassing Eric Berry‘s $8.34MM per year.
Signed: New Orleans Saints. Six years, $54MM, $18.3MM fully guaranteed.

4. Jared Veldheer (OT): Veldheer, who is a couple months younger than Monroe, has a strong case for the top left tackle in 2014’s free agent class, but a torn triceps limited the Raiders standout to just five games last year, so we haven’t seen him excel for a full season since 2012. Still, Veldheer returned near the end of 2013, and while his last few games weren’t exceptional, they at least showed that he was healthy, meaning he should do well in free agency. And while the same teams I mentioned as Monroe suitors will kick the tires on Veldheer, it’d be a major upset to see him sign anywhere but Oakland. After all, no team currently has more 2014 cap space than the Raiders, who can afford to lock up Veldheer to a lucrative five- or six-year contract.
Signed: Arizona Cardinals. Five years, $35MM, $10.5MM fully guaranteed.

5. Michael Johnson (DE): While Bennett tops the wish lists of teams in desperate need of pass-rushing, clubs looking for a more all-around end might target Johnson instead. The longtime Bengal is an excellent run-stopping end, having ranked behind only New England’s Rob Ninkovich last season in Pro Football Focus’ run grades for 4-3 defensive ends. Johnson isn’t likely to match the 11.5 sacks he posted in 2012 again, but that performance at least showed that he’s very capable of rushing the quarterback as well. The Eagles are said to be eyeing Johnson, who could draw interest as both a 4-3 end and a 3-4 outside linebacker. My guess though is that Johnson lands in Minnesota, with new head coach Mike Zimmer. A deal in the neighborhood of four years, $36MM for Johnson wouldn’t be out of the question.
Signed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Six years, $43.75MM, $16MM fully guaranteed.

6. Alex Mack (C): The only player on our list of free agents to receive the franchise or transition tag, Mack belongs here because his situation means teams will still pursue him. Having received the transition tag, Mack can sign an offer sheet elsewhere, but the Browns will have the right to match it. That means there’s a very good chance the standout center returns to Cleveland, either on a long-term deal or simply at his one-year, $10MM+ tender. But before that happens, expect the Colts, Rams, Falcons, and Giants to at least kick the tires on Mack. The Raiders and Buccaneers have been cited as possible suitors as well.
Signed: Cleveland Browns. Five years, $42MM, $18MM fully guaranteed.

7. Aqib Talib (CB): Arguably the best pure cover corner available this year, Talib earned his first Pro Bowl berth in 2013 and snagged four interceptions for the Patriots, setting himself up nicely for free agency. His departure would leave New England with a hole at corner, so I expect the Pats to continue discussing a new deal for him. But if and when he hits the open market, Talib could receive interest from other teams in need of secondary help, such as the Vikings, Chargers, Redskins, Bills, and Panthers. Talib won’t get Darrelle Revis money, but it’s fair to assume his new deal will approach the ballpark of $9-10MM per year corners like Johnathan Joseph, Brandon Flowers, and Leon Hall.
Signed: Denver Broncos. Six years, $57MM, $11.5MM fully guaranteed.

8. Alterraun Verner (CB): While many teams will prefer Talib’s upside, there’s a lot to be said for Verner’s consistency and durability. Since entering the league in 2010, Verner has never placed outside the top 25 in Pro Football Focus’ cornerback rankings. On the other hand, he’s never ranked inside the top 10. Verner isn’t elite, but he’s an effective No. 1 corner, and he’ll get paid like one this offseason. A four-year deal that surpasses Brent Grimes‘ $32MM seems reasonable, and I could see the Rams being a major player in the Verner sweepstakes if the Titans don’t lock him up.
Signed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Four years, $25.5MM, $8MM fully guaranteed.

9. T.J. Ward (S): The third-best safety in 2013, according to Pro Football Focus’ grades, Ward lacks the range and the playmaking ability of Byrd, but is perhaps the league’s best strong safety against the run. Ward is just 27 years old and can be an anchor for a secondary, even if he’s not going to pile up interceptions or highlight-reel plays. If he and the Browns have mutual interest in a new deal, the two sides should work something out, since Cleveland has more than enough cap flexibility to keep him. Otherwise, the Colts and Eagles will be teams to watch, and I could see the Ravens, Panthers, Saints, and Packers mulling an offer for Ward if he’s within their respective budgets. Contracts for safeties typically don’t break the bank, so if there aren’t a ton of teams in the mix, Ward could potentially be had for an annual salary between $6-7MM.
Signed: Denver Broncos. Four years, $22.5MM, $7MM fully guaranteed.

10. Lamarr Houston (DE): As is the case with Veldheer, it’s a little surprising not to see Houston already locked up by the Raiders, who have an abundance of cap room this offseason. Still, perhaps the club wants the official free agent period to set the market for its free agents, to avoid overpaying to keep them around. Houston, like Michael Johnson, is a run-stopping defensive end, with a limited pass rush impact — his six sacks in 2013 were a career high. That ability to stuff the run is a valuable commodity though, particularly on teams that can get their pass rush from other spots. Houston may not receive quite as big a deal as Johnson, but I could see him landing $15MM+ in guaranteed money. And the Raiders look like the best fit.
Signed: Chicago Bears. Five years, $35MM, $8.95MM fully guaranteed.

11. Branden Albert (OT): Although Kansas City seemingly doesn’t have much interest in re-signing him, Albert has recorded positive grades, according to Pro Football Focus, for four consecutive seasons and ranks just behind Monroe and Veldheer as this year’s top free agent left tackles. Albert is likely near the top of the Dolphins’ wish list, but it sounds like the Cardinals will be the club making the strongest push for the longtime Chief. I’ll speculate that Albert ends up signing a four-year deal in Arizona for about $8-9MM per season.
Signed: Miami Dolphins. Five years, $47MM, $20MM fully guaranteed.

12. Hakeem Nicks (WR): Nicks certainly wasn’t the highest-producing wide receiver among this year’s free agent class, but it’s hard to argue that any other receiver has a better combination of size, speed, and upside. The team that signs Nicks will be hoping that he recaptures his 2010-11 form, while angling to pay for his 2012-13 production. That could result in Nicks signing at a slight discount — perhaps a one-year, make-good deal, or even a longer-term deal in the $7-8MM per year range, rather than the $10MM+ he would have earned with a solid 2013. If Nicks wants to rebuild his value with a contender, the Patriots, Panthers, Colts, or Broncos might be a fit. Otherwise, teams like the Jets, Lions, Raiders, and Browns should all be very much in the mix.
Signed: Indianapolis Colts. One year, $3.5MM, $2.25MM fully guaranteed.

13. Eric Decker (WR): Based on his numbers in recent years, Decker figures to land a larger free agent contract than Nicks, but there will be question marks about how much of his production can be directly linked to the Broncos’ explosive offense. After all, Decker has just spent two years with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball and Demaryius Thomas drawing the secondary’s attention. Still, an annual salary in the $8-10MM range seems likely, and Decker should be able to secure $15-20MM in guaranteed money. The Browns look like the best fit to me, but the Broncos, Jets, Raiders, Chiefs, and Colts could be involved as well.
Signed: New York Jets. Five years, $36.25MM, $15MM fully guaranteed.

14. Jason Hatcher (DT): While Hatcher had one of the best 2013 campaigns of any of this year’s free agents, his age (he turns 32 in July) may limit his market somewhat. Still, it’s hard to argue with those ’13 numbers — having moved to nose tackle for the Cowboys, Hatcher posted a career-best 11 sacks, and ranks as the NFL’s eighth-best defensive tackle, according to Pro Football Focus’ metrics. Since Hatcher became a starter in 2011, in fact, he’s ranked among the top 10 at his position each season, according to PFF. A four- or five-year deal may not be realistic for Hatcher. Or if he signs one, it’ll be heavily frontloaded with guaranteed money, making it easier to get out of later on. Given Dallas’ lack of cap flexibility, it looks like Hatcher will head elsewhere. The Buccaneers, Vikings, Falcons, Packers, Steelers, and Dolphins are all potential fits, to varying degrees.
Signed: Washington Redskins. Four years, $27.5MM, $10.5MM fully guaranteed.

15. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (CB): The Broncos cornerback hinted leading up to the Super Bowl that he might consider retirement after the season, but he has rightly come to his sense since then. Rodgers-Cromartie will turn 28 next month, so he’s still in his prime, and he’s coming off one of the better seasons of his career. His inconsistent track record may scare off some teams, but 2013 did a lot to rebuild DRC’s value, and he should receive long-term offers in the ballpark of at least $7-8MM per year. The same teams I mentioned when discussing Talib and Verner should kick the tires on Rodgers-Cromartie.
Signed: New York Giants. Five years, $35MM, $11.98MM fully guaranteed.

16. Randy Starks (DT): It may seem like Starks has been around forever, and that perception isn’t totally unwarranted — he entered the league in 2004, after all. Still, his early start means he’ll still only be 30 years old for most of the 2014 season, so his age shouldn’t be a major red flag for interested teams this offseason. Starks has traditionally been better at rushing the passer than stopping the run, but he was excellent in both facets of the game in 2013. The Dolphins have reportedly not made an offer to Starks or fellow free agent lineman Paul Soliai, and I’d be shocked if the team kept both players. If Starks wants to leave an organization that has been plagued by dysfunction in recent months, possible destinations include Minnesota, Chicago, Tennessee, Houston, and Atlanta.
Signed: Miami Dolphins. Two years, $10MM, $5MM fully guaranteed.

17. Donte Whitner (S): Whitner didn’t like his ranking in NFL.com’s list of 2014 free agents, but we don’t have him 31 spots higher because we want to get in his good books. Coming off back-to-back Pro Bowl seasons, Whitner was one of the league’s best safeties in pass coverage last season, limiting yards after the catch and grabbing a pair of interceptions. At age 28, Whitner should have plenty of productive years left in him, and ranks behind only T.J. Ward among 2014’s free agent strong safeties. A contract that includes $10MM+ in guaranteed money seems within reach.
Signed: Cleveland Browns. Four years, $28MM, $11MM fully guaranteed.

18. Vontae Davis (CB): Only two cornerbacks in the NFL graded better than Davis in 2013, according to Pro Football Focus: Darrelle Revis, who is making $16MM per year, and Brent Grimes, who just signed for $8MM per year at age 30. Davis, who is only 25, doesn’t have the track record of either of those players, but given the elite company, it’s not hard to see why he and the Colts have yet to reach an agreement despite mutual interest. Indianapolis has a good deal of cap flexibility and I expect the two sides to work something out eventually, but the price for Davis may be a little higher than the Colts were expecting. I’d anticipate a four- or five-year contract that slightly exceeds Grimes’ annual average salary.
Signed: Indianapolis Colts. Four years, $36MM, $15MM fully guaranteed.

19. Karlos Dansby (ILB): The only linebacker on our list, Dansby would rank even higher if he wasn’t set to turn 33 in November. However, he certainly didn’t show any signs of falling off in 2013, racking up 121 tackles, 6.5 sacks, and a career-high four interceptions, including two for touchdowns. Dansby also ranked fifth among inside linebackers, according to Pro Football Focus, grading exceptionally well in pass coverage. The all-around standout has expressed a strong desire to return to the Cardinals, but expect the Titans, Vikings, Browns, and Dolphins to be among the teams making inquiries.
Signed: Cleveland Browns. Four years, $24MM, $12MM fully guaranteed.

20. Sam Shields (CB): Coming off a 2013 season in which he ranked as a perfectly average cornerback, according to Pro Football Focus, Shields has a few more question marks than a few other corners on this list. But there are few teams that question his potential to be a strong No. 1 cornerback in the NFL. At age 26, Shields has plenty of upside, and his reps will likely point to his excellent peripheral stats in 2012 during negotiations. Although Shields may not receive quite as large a contract as some of the players ahead of him on this list, a team that misses out on those top options and locks up the Packers CB at $6-7MM per year should be pretty happy.
Signed: Green Bay Packers. Four years, $39MM, $12.5MM fully guaranteed.

21. Linval Joseph (DT): Joseph’s first few years in the NFL have been solid, albeit not exceptional. As a run-stopper, he may never fill up the stat sheet, but he’s been effective in a part-time role with the Giants and is young enough (25) that there’s plenty of room for further improvement. While teams in need of short-term help at defensive tackle will likely target Hatcher or Starks, Joseph could be a more worthwhile investment for a club looking to add a long-term piece to its defensive line. If he doesn’t return to the Giants, Joseph could be a fit for the division-rival Redskins, or many of the teams mentioned as suitors for Hatcher and Starks.
Signed: Minnesota Vikings. Five years, $31.25MM, $12.5MM fully guaranteed.

22. Rodger Saffold (OL): Saffold is one of this year’s more interesting free agent cases. Since starting all 16 games at left tackle for the Rams in his rookie season, the 25-year-old hasn’t appeared in more than 12 games for the club due to various injuries. Health will be a concern for any interested suitors, but Saffold’s flexibility to play either guard or tackle has a lot of appeal, as does his youth. The Rams appear to be making an effort to re-sign the offensive lineman, but St. Louis is looking at him as a guard, while other clubs may be willing to pay him like a tackle. Saffold and Anthony Collins could ultimately make very appealing Plan Bs for teams who miss out on the top tier of left tackles.
Signed: St. Louis Rams. Five years, $31.347MM, $11MM fully guaranteed.

23. Arthur Jones (DT): Jones and the Ravens seemed resigned to the fact that the free-agent-to-be will draw enough interest on the open market that Baltimore won’t be able to bring him back. And that interest will be warranted. Playing primarily as a part-timer on his rookie contract, Jones hasn’t accumulated a whole lot of mileage, but has exhibited plenty of potential when he’s played. In 529 snaps for the Ravens in 2013, Jones recorded a +15.7 PFF grade, performing very well against the run while also compiling 25 quarterback pressures. A multiyear deal worth in the neighborhood of $6MM per year seems about right for the 27-year-old.
Signed: Indianapolis Colts. Five years, $33MM, $10MM fully guaranteed.

24. Everson Griffen (DE): Griffen didn’t get a real chance to shine in Minnesota during his rookie contract, starting just one game in four seasons with Jared Allen and Brian Robison firmly entrenched as the team’s ends. Still, even as a part-timer often not playing his natural position, Griffen flashed solid potential, recording 13.5 sacks over the last two seasons. If Allen leaves Minnesota, the Vikings could re-sign Griffen and plug him in as a starter on the end. Griffen also figures to draw interest from other suitors though, including perhaps the Raiders, Buccaneers, Bengals, Jaguars, Seahawks, and Falcons.
Signed: Minnesota Vikings. Five years, $42.5MM, $19.8MM fully guaranteed.

25. Golden Tate (WR): Tate’s numbers in Seattle weren’t exceptional, but considering how little the Seahawks relied on their passing offense, a line of 64 receptions, 898 yards, and five touchdowns in 2013 doesn’t look bad at all. Tate, whose explosiveness can also be deployed on punt returns, could thrive in a more pass-heavy system, making teams like the Colts and Patriots ideal fits for him. Clubs like the Jets, Browns, Ravens, and Raiders may be willing to pay more though, depending on how the wide receiver market plays out. A $6MM annual salary sounds about right for Tate, and given his upside and age (25), that may turn into a bargain.
Signed: Detroit Lions. Five years, $31MM, $10.5MM fully guaranteed.

Just missed the cut:

OverTheCap.com was used in the creation of this post.

Free Agent Market For Guards

Very few NFL teams will carry over four or five offensive line starters from 2013 to 2014. While many clubs will attempt to fill their holes with internal alternatives, or by selecting players from what’s considered a very deep draft class, plenty will turn to free agency.

The Dolphins, Broncos, Browns, Rams, Bucs, Falcons, Chiefs, Rams, Texans, and Vikings are among the teams who could need to replace starting guards who will depart as free agents or cap casualties. The Seahawks, Bills, Colts, Buccaneers, and Jaguars may not have the same number of pending free agents, but they may be in the market for an upgrade after subpar guard performance on one side or the other last season. Meanwhile, the Chargers, Giants, and Jets would be on the lookout for upgrades even if they didn’t have prospective free agents, which they do.

We just mentioned more than half of the NFL’s 32 teams, and it’s fair to assume that several other clubs could get involved in the free agent market as well, as they look to add bench depth at the guard position. With so many teams eyeing stop-gap or long-term solutions, and only a small number of top-tier options available, it should be an interesting free agent period. Let’s check out some of the players expected to hit the open market on March 11….

First tier:

Two of the four guards we have listed as first-tier options, Jon Asamoah and Geoff Schwartz, come from the same team, and the Chiefs will likely try to keep at least one of the two. If only half the duo returns to Kansas City, I’d expect Asamoah to be the one leaving town — he lost his starting job toward the end of last season, despite a solid overall performance.

The third top-tier guard on this year’s market is the Panthers’ Travelle Wharton, who has hinted recently that he might consider retirement. Assuming he does keep playing, Wharton has suggested that he’d love to return to Carolina, but the Panthers don’t have a ton of cap flexibility, and considering the lack of elite guards available in free agency, he should receive plenty of interest.

As the longtime starting left guard of the defending AFC champions, Zane Beadles should also do well on the open market. Beadles recorded a subpar grade in 2013, according to Pro Football Focus, but his relative youth (he’s 27) and a strong 2012 should earn him a nice payday.

Second tier:

Chad Rinehart‘s was excellent for the Bills in his only full season (2011), but has never appeared in more than 11 games in any of his other four NFL seasons, so there may be question marks about how he’ll hold up as a fulltime starter. Meanwhile, Kevin Boothe‘s advanced numbers fell off a little last season, along with the rest of the Giants’ line, but with a set position and perhaps a new situation, there’s no reason to think he won’t provide solid production in 2014.

Shelley Smith and Willie Colon each excel in a particular area — run blocking for Smith and pass blocking for Colon. Unfortunately, they can’t maintain that level of production across the board, with Smith’s pass blocking and Colon’s penalty problems both acting as potential liabilities. Still, in the right offense, they could be effective starters.

Many of the other second-tier options have red flags in one area or another. Brian Waters remains productive, but his age and health mean he shouldn’t necessarily be relied upon as a 16-game starter, if he continues his career. There are also injury concerns with Mike Pollak, who has missed 23 games over the last two seasons due to injuries. Shawn Lauvao has yet to post a positive PFF grade in any of his four NFL seasons, though he’s still young enough to have some upside. As for Wade Smith, there’s certainly something to be said for a player who has started every game for four straight seasons, but he’s coming off a down year for Houston in 2013.

Finally, the wild cards of this group are Richie Incognito and John Jerry. Jerry, who is three years younger than Incognito, and wasn’t as tainted by the Ted Wells report, will have an easier time finding work, but it’s hard to predict how much his involvement in last year’s bullying scandal will affect his value. In any case, it’s safe to assume neither player will return to Miami.

The rest:

Teams aren’t likely to find an elite starter amongst this group, but there’s still some appeal to a player like Garrett Reynolds, who has recorded positive grades in about a full season’s worth of snaps over the last two seasons, or Charlie Johnson, who has started all but six games in the last six years even though his performance generally ranks below average. Chris Williams, Paul McQuistan, and Mike McGlynn are among the other available options coming off subpar performances as starters.

Geoff Hangartner, Eben Britton, Dylan Gandy, and Garry Williams, and Jamon Meredith are a few of the other prospective free agent guards likely to be signed as backups for 2014.

Previously:
Free Agent Market For Quarterbacks
Free Agent Market For Running Backs
Free Agent Market For Wide Receivers
Free Agent Market For Tight Ends
Free Agent Market For Offensive Tackles
Free Agent Market For Centers

Franchise/Transition Tag Recap

The deadline to designate franchise or transition players has now passed, and six players received tags. Here’s a breakdown of the action:

Franchise players (non-exclusive):

Transition players:

Candidates who didn’t receive tags:

Players who received franchise or transition tags can ink those one-year tenders, if they so choose. They can also negotiate long-term agreements with their own teams, or – once free agency begins next week – with another team. If any tagged player signs an offer sheet with a new club, his current club would have five days to match the offer.

PFR Originals: 2/24/14 – 3/2/14

The original content produced this past week by the staff at PFR:

Free Agent Stock Watch: Michael Vick

The career arc of Michael Dwayne Vick is akin to the scariest roller coaster of which you used to dream as a young girl or boy — a series of sky-scraping peaks, each followed by a calamitous crash back down to earth at rocket speeds.

Vick enters the 2014 offseason as a free agent, the second time in his career he’s held that designation. PFR’s Luke Adams lists Vick, along with Chad Henne, Matt Cassel and Josh McCown, as the only first tier free agent quarterbacks. Rarely does a franchise quarterback make it to free agency.

His story is well told. The No. 1 overall pick in 2001 from Virginia Tech, Vick transcended the quarterback position. While not the most efficient or accomplished passer, his athleticism forced defenses to scheme for both his arm and his legs. He made the Pro Bowl in three of his six years in Atlanta, becoming the first QB to rush for 1,000 yards in 2006, though the Falcons missed the playoffs for the second straight season.

Then, Vick became a convicted felon and spent 548 days in prison.

Upon his release, a number of teams came out and, for one reason or another, publicly stated their disinterest in signing Vick. But the Eagles, lobbied by then-starting QB Donovan McNabb and looking to add a dynamic element to their offense, signed Vick to a modest two-year contract.

Vick played sparingly in 2009 as McNabb’s backup, then looked to back up Kevin Kolb in 2010 until an injury Week One sidelined McNabb’s heir apparent. The next 15 weeks were the best football Vick has ever played, finally becoming the efficient passer that had eluded him during his days in Atlanta, setting career-bests in completion percentage and passer rating.

But, as has been the case so many times with Vick, it came down to his (in)ability to stay on the field. Injuries forced him to the bench in each of the following three seasons, and he was kept there in 2013 by the stellar play of second-year passer Nick Foles.

In Vick’s favor is the improvement he showed in Philadelphia, making strides in every passing metric. Now we’ll see how much the rest of the league thinks of him.

ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter reported last month that the Buccaneers and Jets are likely to have some level of interest in Vick. The Jets offensive coordinator, Marty Mornhinweg, worked with Vick in Philadelphia as the Eagles OC from 2009-’12.

However, Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News reported that a reunion between Vick and Mornhinweg is not likely, despite the obvious connection. Tom Jones of the Tampa Bay Times says the Bucs need to take some chances and implores the team to sign Vick.

Vick, who turns 34 this summer, told Dan Handuz of NFL.com that he’ll “absolutely” be starting Week One next season. If his market isn’t what he thinks it will be, the Bengals would be a potential suitor — they offered Vick a two-year deal worth about $2.3MM in 2009, according to FOXSports.com.

At this stage in his career, Vick is likely still one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the world. But, teams will be wary of making a substantial financial investment in an aging veteran who has only played all 16 games once in his 11 season. Thanks to a weak free agent QB crop, though, he’ll likely get a shot to at least compete for the starting job, and we may get to watch the “Michael Vick Experience” once again.

Franchise Tag Candidates

Although NFL teams have been free to designate franchise players since last Monday, no player has received the tag yet. In most cases, clubs are likely hoping to reach multiyear agreements with their top free agents before having to resort to the franchise tag, but they don’t have much time left. The deadline for using the 2014 franchise tag is this coming Monday, March 3.

Based on various reports, it sounds like the franchise designation remains a strong possibility for at least a handful of players, assuming they don’t agree to long-term deals. There are also a number of other prospective free agents who are candidates for the tag, but perhaps aren’t quite as likely to receive it. With Monday’s deadline looming, let’s run through those most commonly mentioned names. For a refresher on the specific details of the franchise tag, you can check out our glossary entry.

Strong candidates:

  • Jairus Byrd (S, Bills): The Bills franchised Byrd a year ago, and sound increasingly open to doing so again.
  • Jimmy Graham (TE, Saints): The Saints don’t necessarily want to get the stage where Graham files a grievance over his positional designation (tight end or wide receiver), but there’s no way the team will let him get away. Even earning $11MM+ on a one-year contract, Graham would be a good value.
  • Greg Hardy (DE, Panthers): Like the Saints with Graham, the Panthers don’t have a ton of cap flexibility, but it’s extremely unlikely they’d let one of 2014’s best free agents hit the open market.
  • Brian Orakpo (LB, Redskins): Even after re-signing DeAngelo Hall and Chris Baker, the Redskins have plenty of cap room left to tag Orakpo, though I think a long-term agreement is more likely.
  • Dennis Pitta (TE, Ravens): Pitta finds himself in a similar position to Graham, potentially readying to file a grievance over his position. However, the Ravens may not let it reach that point, agreeing on a compromise that splits the difference between the two positions instead.
  • T.J. Ward (S, Browns): The Browns have made free agent center Alex Mack their top priority, but the franchise price tag for Ward will be much more palatable than for Mack, who would be eligible for the left tackle franchise salary.

Possible candidates:

  • Michael Bennett (DE, Seahawks): While the Seahawks would like to bring Bennett back, it doesn’t sound like the team will use its franchise tag on him.
  • Donald Butler (LB, Chargers): I’d also be surprised if the Chargers franchised Butler, though he represents the club’s most likely candidate.
  • Vontae Davis (CB, Colts): The Colts definitely want Davis back, but the cornerback franchise tag might be a little too pricey for the club, and wouldn’t help create roster flexibility. This predicament applies to many of the other cornerbacks in this section as well.
  • Brent Grimes (CB, Dolphins): Grimes has expressed a desire to work out a multiyear deal rather than being tagged, and it sounds like he and the Dolphins are making progress.
  • Lamarr Houston (DE, Raiders): The Raiders have two potential franchise candidates in this group, and it’s not clear yet which one they’re leaning toward tagging, if the club plans on using it at all.
  • Sam Shields (CB, Packers): GM Ted Thompson didn’t shoot down the possibility of using the franchise tag on Shields last week, but his combine presser was so devoid of real updates that it’s hard to read too much into that. For what it’s worth, negotiations between the two sides are said to be “heating up.”
  • Aqib Talib (CB, Patriots): Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald suggested yesterday that the Pats likely won’t franchise Talib even if they can’t reach a multiyear agreement.
  • Jared Veldheer (OL, Raiders): The Raiders’ other franchise candidate, Veldheer indicated earlier this month that he wouldn’t be happy with the franchise tag, since he’d like more long-term security.
  • Alterraun Verner (CB, Titans): According to Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean, indications are that the Titans won’t franchise Verner, who perhaps falls into the same category as Davis.
  • Donte Whitner (S, 49ers): The price for a franchise safety isn’t exorbitant, but I think the 49ers may be more inclined to pursue a cheaper alternative than to franchise Whitner.

Kickers and punters:

While they aren’t necessarily marquee free agents, kickers and punters are often designated as franchise players when a team has no other viable candidates, if only because the salaries are so modest. Here are a few special teams players who might be candidates this offseason: