PFR Originals News & Rumors

Centers may not be the coveted commodities on the open market that left tackles or even guards are, but as the first play of this year’s Super Bowl exhibited, their impact shouldn’t be overlooked. Even once the ball is in the quarterback’s hands, an above-average center can help anchor a line, allowing a team to establish a running game and giving a QB the room to step up in a pocket.

That’s why it’s no so surprise that the Browns’ top priority this offseason is re-signing Alex Mack, the No. 1 center among this year’s free agent class. Mack, a two-time Pro Bowler who is still just 28 years old, represents the cream of the 2014 crop, but there are several other names to watch, particularly since so many teams could use help in the middle of their offensive line.

Cleveland will be in the market for a replacement if they lose their incumbent starter, and the same can be said for the Saints, Packers, Bears, Patriots, and 49ers. The Colts, Ravens, Giants, Falcons, and Rams received subpar production from their centers in 2013 and could be scouring the free agent market for an alternative, while the Jaguars will need to replace Brad Meester, who appears headed for retirement.

Finally, the Dolphins may consider bringing in someone new if they decide to part ways with Mike Pouncey, whose name was splashed all over the Ted Wells report. But given his contract status, his solid play in 2013, and the fact that the Dolphins have a couple fall guys in free-agents-to-be Richie Incognito and John Jerry, Pouncey likely isn’t going anywhere.

Even with the Dolphins not in the mix, we’ve still listed a dozen teams potentially involved in 2014’s free agent market for centers. Let’s take a look at some of the players those clubs will have to consider….

First tier:

As mentioned above, no other center among this year’s group of prospective free agents is in the same class as Mack, who has graded as a top-10 center in each of his first five NFL seasons, according to Pro Football Focus’ metrics. Designating Mack as a franchise player may not be in the Browns’ best interests, since he’d qualify for the same one-year salary as a left tackle, but Cleveland should still be able to find a way to lock him up.

After Mack, the two most intriguing options at center seem to be Evan Dietrich-Smith and Brian De La Puente. Both remain solidly in their primes at age 27 and 28, respectively, and have experience in two of the most dynamic passing offenses in the NFL. Dietrich-Smith started all 16 games for the Packers in 2013, while De La Puente has been the Saints’ starting center for multiple seasons. Of the two, De La Puente looks like the safer bet, given Dietrich-Smith’s relative lack of experience as a full-time player, but both should be solid pickups, particularly as pass blockers.

Second tier:

Jonathan Goodwin and Roberto Garza are longtime starters that continued to perform at an above-average level in 2013 — both ranked among the top 15 centers according to PFF’s grades. However, considering Goodwin having turned 35 years old in December, and Garza will turn 35 next month, teams may be wary of committing to either player on more than a very short-term contract. Still, for 2014 at least, both players should be reliable starting options, with Goodwin a more effective run blocker and Garza excelling in pass blocking.

Neither Ryan Wendell nor Fernando Velasco had a career year in 2013. After an excellent 2012 season, Wendell had a down year in 2013, grading as the league’s worst pass-blocking center, according to PFF. While he would like to return to the Patriots, a team like New England that relies on a potent passing attack may not be an ideal fit for Wendell, who is a more accomplished run blocker.

As for Velasco, he was cut by the Titans after a solid season in 2012 and caught on late with the Steelers in 2013 when Maurkice Pouncey tore his ACL. Velasco, 29, didn’t match his 2012 performance in Pittsburgh, but it’s reasonable to believe that missing training camp contributed to some of his struggles. If he’s on a roster for a full camp and preseason, Velasco looks capable of being a solid starter in 2014.

The rest:

While the rest of the prospective free agent centers come with some question marks, there should be some upside among this group too. Dan Koppen, J.D. Walton, and Ryan Cook were all sidelined due to injuries in 2013, but if they’re healthy, they should be capable of starting. Koppen’s age (34) and injury history (he missed virtually all of 2011 as well) are concerns, and Walton hasn’t played since the first month of the 2012 season, so Cook might be the most desirable player of this trio — he played well as Dallas’ center in 2012 and is a former second-round pick.

As for other names to watch? Ted Larsen didn’t play well as a Tampa Bay part-timer in 2013, and Robert Turner wasn’t good in the six games he started for the Titans. But both players received above-average grades from PFF in 2012, so they could still have potential in the right system. Meanwhile, former fourth-round pick Joe Hawley never received an extended run of playing time in his four seasons in Atlanta, but was having a decent season in part-time action in 2013 before a disastrous Week 17 performance. He also won’t turn 26 until October.

Previously:
Free Agent Market For Quarterbacks
Free Agent Market For Running Backs
Free Agent Market For Wide Receivers
Free Agent Market For Tight Ends
Free Agent Market For Offensive Tackles

When we evaluate and take stock of free agent running backs or wide receivers, it’s easy to point to simple statistics like yards per carry, receptions, or yards after catch to attempt to determine a value. For offensive linemen, there are no basic stats that fully capture a player’s performance. Even a quantifiable number such as sacks allowed doesn’t tell the whole story, since it leaves out a variety of variables — the lineman’s competition, how many times he received help, how many quarterback hits he allowed, and so on.

Watching a particular lineman on every snap would give us a pretty clear idea of how he’s playing, but few of us have the time to devote to such a project. Fortunately, the team at Pro Football Focus has done the majority of the dirty work for us, evaluating players’ performances on each snap and turning that data into grades that take into account pass blocking, run blocking, and the ability to avoid penalties, among other factors. For our next few installments in our look at the free agent market, we’ll be relying heavily on PFF’s data in helping to determine which free agent offensive linemen should attract the most attention this offseason.

This year’s group of free agent offensive tackles should generate plenty of interest on the open market next month, with a number of clubs looking to upgrade the most important positions on the offensive line. It’s fair to suggest that nearly every team in the NFL will consider adding at least one tackle this offseason, if only for depth purposes. As for the teams with a more pressing need, the Dolphins, Cardinals, Rams, Saints, Falcons, Titans, Seahawks, Ravens, Panthers, Jets, Jaguars, and Raiders could all be in the market for a starter on one side or the other.

Here are some of the players expected to be available:

First tier:

Zach Strief of the Saints ranked as 2013’s best right tackle according to Pro Football Focus’ grades, buoyed by his excellent pass-blocking numbers. Strief will be a priority for the Saints, as they look to keep Drew Brees out of harm’s way, but the 30-year-old will be an intriguing commodity if he hits free agency. Austin Howard, meanwhile, saw his PFF ranking hurt by his run-blocking grade, but the Jets are making him a priority this offseason, with one report speculating that a lucrative four-year contract is a possibility.

Former second-round pick Rodger Saffold played all over the line for the Rams in 2013, and is reportedly drawing interest as a guard as well as a tackle. His flexibility will make him attractive to potential suitors, as will his age — coming off his rookie contract, he’s still just 25 years old.

The real prizes of this group though are the left tackles, the players tasked with protecting their quarterbacks’ blind sides. By PFF’s numbers, Jordan Gross ranked as the best tackle of this year’s free agent class, and the NFL’s third-best tackle overall. However, he remains undecided on whether or not he’ll continue his career. If he does decide to keep playing, he’s a good bet to return to the Panthers. At age 26, Jared Veldheer certainly isn’t considering retirement, but it sounds like there’s a decent chance he re-signs with his current team (the Raiders) as well. After a triceps injury sidelined him for a good chunk of 2013, Veldheer is reportedly seeking a long-term deal rather than a franchise tag, and would like to see talks accelerate before next month.

Branden Albert and Eugene Monroe round out the top tier of left tackles eligible for free agency. Albert appears likely to leave the Chiefs, while Monroe is in talks with the Ravens but says he isn’t about to take a discount to stay in Baltimore.

Second tier:

Speaking of the blind side, the subject of Hollywood’s only film about a left tackle, Michael Oher, had a down year in 2013, ranking as the worst run-blocker of 76 qualified tackles according to PFF’s metrics. His pass blocking was much better, albeit as a right tackle in 2013, which should get him some offers. If the Ravens can lock up Monroe, I wouldn’t expect Oher to return.

Tyson Clabo‘s performance as Miami’s primary right tackle in 2013 was passable, though it remains to be seen whether he’ll be back as the team overhauls its offensive line in the wake of the Wells report. Fellow right tackle Tony Pashos of the Raiders turns 34 this summer, but ranked slightly ahead of Clabo on PFF’s metrics and figures to seek out another starting gig for 2014.

Byron Bell has been the Panthers’ starting right tackle for three straight seasons, and has been steadily climbing out of the basement of PFF’s rankings, from 68th to 60th to 52nd. For a Super Bowl contender, he’s not an ideal option, but as a restricted free agent, he should be relatively affordable, which could mean a reunion with Carolina. Breno Giacomini has been the starting right tackle for the Super Bowl champion Seahawks in recent years, but that relationship looks less likely to continue, with Giacomini potentially being too expensive for Seattle, a team which has other priorities.

Rounding out the second tier: Veteran Eric Winston, who has started all 16 games for seven straight seasons; Anthony Collins of the Bengals, who has never had a chance to run with a full-time starting job during his six years in Cincinnati; and Khalif Barnes of the Raiders, who filled in for Veldheer at left tackle for much of 2013, but is probably better suited for another spot on the line.

The rest:

A team that misses out on one of the options above may be pressed into starting one of the players in this group, but in an ideal scenario, these guys would be no more than the third tackle in a rotation.

That includes Bryant McKinnie, Charles Brown, and Cameron Bradfield (restricted), all of whom logged major time at left tackle in 2013 and whose PFF grades were significantly below average. Sean Locklear, Jeremy Trueblood, Marshall Newhouse, and Winston Justice were also all starters at some point in their careers, but would be better utilized as backups.

One intriguing name amidst this bevy of options might be Ryan Harris, who was an above-average right tackle for the Broncos for multiple seasons before coming off the bench during the last two years in Houston. He’ll only turn 29 next month, so Harris should still have plenty left in the tank and may have a little upside.

Previously:
Free Agent Market For Quarterbacks
Free Agent Market For Running Backs
Free Agent Market For Wide Receivers
Free Agent Market For Tight Ends

When is a tight end not a tight end? An arbitrator may be tasked with answering that question sometime in the next few weeks, as the Saints and Ravens contemplate designating Jimmy Graham and Dennis Pitta as their respective franchise players. Both Graham and Pitta lined up as receivers for more than half their snaps in 2013, meaning they can make a strong case that they ought to be eligible for the franchise salary for a wide receiver rather than a tight end. Considering that gap figures to amount to about $4-5MM, it’ll be an crucial distinction for the players and their clubs.

For our purposes, we’ll continue to think of Graham and Pitta as tight ends, even if their pass-catching abilities and athleticism mean they’re split out more often than not. As tight ends, Graham and Pitta represent the two most appealing options on the open market, but there are a few intriguing names out there for teams in need of an upgrade.

So which clubs might be on the lookout for a tight end next month? The Ravens, Packers, Lions, Bills, and Jets are among the teams that will need a replacement if their prospective free agents sign elsewhere. The Falcons will be in the market for Tony Gonzalez‘s successor. And the Patriots, with an offensive scheme that requires multiple pass-catching tight ends, figure to survey the free agent landscape as well, though they may ultimately address the position in the draft.

Here’s a look at some of this year’s options:

First tier:

It goes without saying that Graham is far and away the best player in this group, and ranks near the top of the free agent class as a whole. His career numbers and the NFL’s CBA both suggest he should be paid like a wide receiver, but even if he does become eligible for that kind of money, the Saints won’t let him get away. As Drew Brees‘ top receiving option, Graham will either return to New Orleans on a long-term contract or as the club’s franchise player.

Pitta is a trickier case — unlike Graham, he’s probably not worth an eight-figure salary for one year, so it’d be a risk for the Ravens to use their franchise tag on him. Still, before he injured his hip, Pitta looked poised to improve on a 2012 season that saw him catch 61 balls for 669 yards and seven touchdowns. If he can be had for a salary in the $5-7MM range, Pitta could be a nice alternative to Graham.

Second tier:

The 2014 tight end class isn’t particularly top-heavy, but there are several players jockeying for position a few rungs below Graham and Pitta.

Jermichael Finley represents the player with the most upside in this group, but he’ll be recovering from concussion issues and a spinal injury that will cast doubt about his long-term future in the league. He’s reportedly on track to be cleared for action, but any teams willing to invest in the talented Finley will have to proceed with caution.

Scott Chandler, Brandon Myers, and Brandon Pettigrew, who all turn 29 this year, won’t ever be elite tight ends, but they’re reliable targets who remain capable of catching 50 balls in a season. Meanwhile, though former Pro Bowlers Dallas Clark and Kellen Winslow may have been elite at one point, their best years are behind them, making them inexpensive second-tier alternatives.

Teams in search of a little more youth and upside may target players like Garrett Graham, Jeff Cumberland, or Andrew Quarless. Graham in particular had an impressive 2013 campaign, racking up 49 receptions and five TDs in 13 games for the Texans. Cumberland and Quarless could be capable of posting similar numbers in the right situations this season — they’re only 26 and 25 years old, respectively.

Ed Dickson and Ben Hartsock are among the remaining second-tier options available for teams this offseason, and they bring two entirely different skill-sets to the table. Dickson has totaled 100 receptions over the last three seasons, but ranked 64th among 64 qualified tight ends using Pro Football Focus’ metrics (subscription required), due to an abysmal run-blocking grade. On the other end of the spectrum, Hartsock wasn’t a factor in the Panthers’ passing game, but easily ranked as the league’s best run-blocking tight end using PFF’s advanced stats.

The rest:

While most of the players mentioned above could get by as starters, at least in a pinch, teams likely won’t want to head into 2014 with any members of this group in the starting lineup. Still, Dustin Keller and Jeff King, who both missed 2013 due to knee injuries, have been solid in the past and could contribute if they’re healthy. Clay Harbor and Jim Dray may each be good for another 25 receptions in 2014, and guys like Bear Pascoe and Jeron Mastrud graded well as blockers over the course of a few hundred 2013 snaps and should draw interest as situational players.

Among the other familiar names: Kellen Davis, who only has 50 career catches since being drafted by the Bears in 2008; Jake Ballard, whose one solid season with the Giants in 2011 represents the lone bright spot on his NFL resumé so far; and Fred Davis, who has the talent to move the needle for a team if he’s reinstated — but with an indefinite suspension hanging over his head, he’s increasingly looking like a lost cause.

Previously:
Free Agent Market For Quarterbacks
Free Agent Market For Running Backs
Free Agent Market For Wide Receivers

NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock suggested this week that the class of wide receivers available in 2014’s draft is the best he’s seen in years, but many teams in need of receiving help may not have to wait until May to address the position. While the draft class features a potential star in Sammy Watkins and many inexpensive alternatives behind him, 2014’s group of free agents includes plenty of veteran pass-catchers capable of stepping in and contributing immediately.

Although the depth in both the draft class and the free agent crop has some pundits suggesting it’ll be a buyer’s market next month, that doesn’t mean teams will be lining up to ink players to bargain contracts. As it stands, at least half of the league’s 32 teams could use some form of receiving help, and many of those are playoff clubs who won’t want to take a significant step back in 2014. Several of the top prospective free agents – including Eric Decker, Anquan Boldin, Julian Edelman, and Golden Tate – come from the franchises who competed in the conference championship games, so those teams will need to add reinforcements if they lose their own free agents.

Meanwhile, non-playoff clubs like the Lions, Steelers, and Browns will be looking to add solid complementary players alongside their current number one options, while teams like the Jets, Panthers, and Rams also figure to be on the lookout for receiving help. Considering how many clubs are expected to be in the mix for wide receivers, there may not be a ton of steals out there, but there certainly should be no shortage of intriguing options. Let’s have a look….

First tier:

Decker, Boldin, and Edelman were head and shoulders above the rest of 2014’s free agents when it came to 2013 production — Decker led all free agents in receiving yards and TDs, while Edelman’s 105 receptions easily led the pack and Boldin added 1,179 yards and seven touchdowns on 85 catches. All three players put up No. 1 numbers on top-five NFL teams, and should be in line for lucrative deals this offseason. Still, there are question marks surrounding all three: Decker had the league’s best quarterback throwing him the ball and Demaryius Thomas attracting defenders on the other side of the field; Boldin turns 34 during the 2014 season; and Edelman is more of a slot/possession receiver than a true number one.

Teams more inclined to roll the dice on a player with No. 1 upside could take a long look at Hakeem Nicks, whom our Rob DiRe profiled over the weekend. Nicks is coming off a down year, but has multiple 1000-yard seasons on his resumé and just turned 26 years old, making him a tantalizing buy-low candidate.

Rounding out the top tier are two pairs of teammates: Tate and Doug Baldwin of the Seahawks, and Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper of the Eagles. Tate and Baldwin were surprisingly effective in Seattle this season, each having ranked as top-25 receivers in both Football Outsiders’ and Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics. The Seahawks figure to retain at least one of the two, and will have the opportunity to match offers for the restricted Baldwin. As for Maclin and Cooper, the former missed the 2013 season with an ACL injury, while the latter didn’t produce consistently (he had less than 40 yards receiving in nine games). But if they’re healthy, both players should have no problem filling a No. 2 role in the right system.

Second tier:

A year after the Patriots made a play for him, the now-unrestricted Emmanuel Sanders continues to look like a nice fit for New England, and I’d be surprised if the Pats don’t pursue him again. Sanders heads the second tier, but there are several noteworthy names in this group.

After Sanders, the second tier offers a mix of young players with upside (Kenny Britt, Andre Roberts) and steady veterans whose best years are likely behind them (James Jones, Santana Moss, Nate Burleson). Brandon LaFell and Jerome Simpson should also receive consideration as players who could provide solid production as No. 3 options.

This group also includes several players whose value extends beyond their contributions on offense. Guys like Jacoby Jones, Ted Ginn, Dexter McCluster, and Devin Hester can also create big plays in the return game, which should give their stocks a nice boost if and when they hit the open market.

The rest:

For every Ginn, McCluster, or Hester, there are several return specialists whose offensive value is limited. Brandon Tate, Josh Cribbs, Jacoby Ford, and Micheal Spurlock are among the players who fit that bill. Their special teams contributions will earn them contracts, but their clubs probably won’t expect much from them in the passing game.

There are plenty of other notable names among the rest of the free agent receivers, however. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Mario Manningham, and Robert Meachem may never have had breakout years, but you could do a lot worse if you’re not looking for a starter. Longtime Texan Kevin Walter may still have a little left in the tank if he’s healthy, and Jerricho Cotchery is coming off his best season in years, having snagged a career-high 10 touchdown passes for the Steelers. Tiquan Underwood, Damian Williams, Josh Morgan, and Kevin Ogletree are among the other receivers available, and are all still in their mid-to-late 20s.

It goes without saying that none of 2014’s free agents will have the impact of a Calvin Johnson or a Brandon Marshall — if any team decides to pay one of this year’s free agents like a truly elite player, that club will likely regret it. Still, even if there are no superstars in the group, there are plenty of players capable of being excellent secondary options or potentially even sharing a No. 1 role. If a buyer’s market develops, it will be very interesting to see which teams get involved and which decide to hold off until the draft.

Previously:
Free Agent Market For Quarterbacks
Free Agent Market For Running Backs