Free Agent Stock Watch: Nick Fairley
With the offseason around the corner, the Lions’ most pressing concern from a roster standpoint is undeniably the impending free agency of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who topped the most recent edition of our 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings. Reports had indicated the Detroit would consider all the options at its disposal to retain Suh, and today Chris Mortensen of ESPN reported that the Lions are in a good position to re-sign the All-Pro. But because Suh is expected to receive a contract that rivals the $100MM pact between J.J. Watt and the Texans, the Lions probably won’t be able to keep its other talented defensive tackle, fourth-year player Nick Fairley.
Assuming a $140MM cap, the Lions will have approximately $15.4MM of 2015 cap space with which to work. Depending on how Suh’s potential extension is structured, much of that space could be already be spoken for. Mortensen’s report indicated that receiver Calvin Johnson could restructure his contract to create more financial flexibility for the club, allowing the Lions to re-sign Suh and add even more talent. Regardless, cap space in Detroit figures to be tight, leading Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press to tweet today that Fairley returning to the Motor City is a “long shot.”
Of course, the Lions could have had Fairley under team control for the 2015 season had they opted to exercise his fifth-year option last May. Because it selected Fairley in the first round of the 2011 draft, Detroit could have retained Fairley next season for a base salary in the neighborhood of $5.5MM. General manager Martin Mayhew & Co. opted to decline the option, and explained the decision as a motivational tactic, hoping to push Fairley into performing at high level in 2014. The maneuver created something of a Catch-22 — though Fairley did perform well last season, the Lions have now allowed him to hit free agency a year earlier than was needed.
Utilizing the fifth-year option decision as a strategy to motivate Fairley was an understandable move at the time, as the former 11th overall draft pick had failed to live up to expectations. The Auburn product started just 22 games during his first three seasons in the NFL, posting 12.5 sacks over that span. He had a nice season in 2012, grading as the fifth-best defensive tackle among 85 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In ’13, however, Fairley slipped to to No. 31 per PFF, as his run defense grade slipped significantly.
In 2014, Fairley was playing at perhaps his highest level yet before suffering a sprained MCL and PCL in Week 8 — he didn’t play again the rest of the season. Despite his limited amounted of snaps (297), he still placed as the league’s 18th-best DT per PFF; his grade would have been better save for is -4.0 penalty mark. Fairley’s absence on the Detroit defense was tangible — though the unit ranked third in DVOA, it placed seventh in weighted DVOA, which more heavily factors more recent performance.
Fairley will be a part of a relatively strong free agent defensive tackle class, but assuming Suh remains in Detroit, Fairley would have a claim to the No. 1 spot at the position. He’s undoubtedly a top-five choice among DTs, with Terrance Knighton, Jared Odrick, and Dan Williams also intriguing FAs for clubs looking for interior defensive line help. Williams is a 3-4 nose tackle, so he probably won’t interest the same teams that look into Fairley; Knighton, as well, is more of a space-eater. Odrick is probably the most similar competitor among free agent tackles, and it’s notable that Fairley and Odrick produced the top two pass-rushing grades among FA defensive tackles, per PFF.
Given his uneven career performance and his recent injury history, Fairley certainly isn’t in line for a Watt/Suh/Gerald McCoy-type contract that averages more than $12MM per year. The Geno Atkins deal, with an AAV of roughly $10.7MM, is probably out of reach as well. Linval Joseph‘s five-year, $31.25MM pact with the Vikings, signed last offseason, is pretty clearly the floor for Fairley. Joseph was a bit younger than Fairley at the time he inked his contract, but Joseph had never played to the level that Fairely has demonstrated he’s capable of. As such, Fairley will probably be looking for a five-year deal with an AAV that pushes $7MM, with guarantees in the neighborhood of $13-14MM.
Fairley shouldn’t suffer from a lack of suitors, as clubs that perhaps had their eye on Suh can turn their attention to Fairley, provided Suh stays with the Lions. Teams such as the Raiders, Jaguars, Bengals, Broncos (should they lose Knighton), and Falcons (depending on scheme) all make sense for Fairley, who just turned 27 years old. He’s spent his career in a 4-3 defensive front, and given his pass-rushing acumen, it would likely serve him to stay in that scheme. But at 6’4″ and more than 300 pounds, he could conceivably play end in a 3-4 look, and interest clubs like the Chargers, Colts, and Titans, but again, his talents play up in a 4-3. Additionally, if former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz lands a role with a team, it will be interesting to see if he lobbies to bring in Fairley, his ex-pupil.
Fairley said back in August that he’d like to stay with the Lions, but given the massive contract that Suh will garner, it seems wholly unlikely Detroit can keep both its defensive tackles. The club was already spending the second-most on its defensive line in 2014, and that figure would surely rise with new contracts for both Suh and Fairley. Free agency now presents that most likely (and tantalizing) route for Fairely, who should do well on the open market.
PFR Originals: 1/25/15 – 2/1/15
The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Luke Adams looked the franchise tag candidates on each AFC team; check out the summaries of the East, North, South, and West.
- PFR readers believe Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant is the top 2015 free agent — he received about 34% of the vote, while Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh garnered roughly 31%.
- In another poll, PFR readers’ responses pointed to the extremely close matchup in today’s Super Bowl, as about 51% of voters picked the Seahawks to win their second consecutive title tonight. Thanks for voting!
Week In Review: 1/25/15 – 2/1/15
The headlines from the past week at PFR:
Key News:
- Browns receiver Josh Gordon faces a yearlong suspension after testing positive for alcohol, a violation of his treatment plan.
- The Lions are in good position to retain defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.
- The Seahawks have reportedly offered running back Marshawn Lynch an extension.
- The Rams will use a year-to-year lease agreement with the Edward Jones Dome.
- Potential suitors are eyeing Eagles quarterback Nick Foles.
- The Eagles promoted Ed Marynowitz to vice president of player personnel.
Coaching:
- 49ers – Geep Chryst, OC (link)
- Broncos – Wade Phillips, DC (link)
- Falcons – Raheem Morris and Richard Smith (link)
Signed:
- Colts – WR Duron Carter (link)
- Raiders – DB Charles Woodson (re-signed)
Retired:
- T Max Starks (link)
NFC Notes: Maclin, Frank Gore, Ed Dickson
Let’s take a look at some news items from the NFC…
- We heard earlier today that Jeremy Maclin‘s agent had begun extension talks with the Eagles, and now the veteran receiver has weighed on in the notion that Philadelphia can’t afford both he and running back LeSean McCoy (who has indicated he isn’t open to a pay cut). “I don’t know where everything started, people saying they can’t keep us both,” Maclin told Comcast SportsNet’s John Clark (link via Geoff Mosher of CSNPhilly.com). “I think that’s crazy. As far as what he does with his deal, that’s not my place to comment on that. There’s no reason why you can’t keep us both. That’s one of the most ridiculous things I’ve heard all offseason.”
- Had the 49ers hired Rob Chudzinski as offensive coordinator, Matt Barrows of the Sacrament Bee would have placed good odds on running back Frank Gore returning to San Francisco next season, as Chud was Gore’s OC at the University of Miami. Now that the club has instead promoted Geep Chryst, Barrows thinks Gore’s future in the Bay Area is less clear.
- After signing a one-year deal for the veteran minimum to join the Panthers last year, tight end Ed Dickson would like to return to Carolina in 2015, writes Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer. Dickson would like to sign a multi-year contract, and has spoken to offensive coordinator Mike Shula about augmenting his role in the offense, Person adds.
AFC Notes: Peyton, Dolphins, Chargers, Titans
Ever since the Broncos’ divisional round loss to the Colts, Peyton Manning‘s NFL future has been a hot-button topic, but the future Hall of Fame quarterback doesn’t plan to make everyone wait for his decision on retirement. “I’m not interested in making this a lingering thing,” said Manning, via Mike Klis of the Denver Post. “I’d like to make a decision soon. At the same time, both coach [Gary Kubiak] and [team president] Joe [Ellis] and [general manager] John [Elway] have instructed me to take some time, so I’m kind of following their orders.” Manning is required to take a physical between February 23 and March 5, but unlike last season, this examination isn’t tied to money, tweets Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com. As Klis writes, however, Manning’s 2015 base salary of $19MM becomes fully guaranteed on March 9, so a decision — from either Manning or the team — needs to be solidified by then.
Here’s more from the AFC:
- Entering his first offseason as the Dolphins’ executive vice president of football operations, Mike Tannenbaum has several challenges ahead, writes Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald. Primarily, the former Jets GM must decide how to approach contract talks with quarterback Ryan Tannehill — if an extension isn’t worked out by May, Beasley projects Miami will exercise its fifth-year option on Tannehill. Beasley’s colleague Armando Salguero spoke with Tannenbaum today, and in turn believes (via Twitter) the club will work out a long-term deal with offensive lineman Mike Pouncey, who is entering the final year of his rookie contract.
- The city of San Diego announced it has formed a nine-person committee to not only find a new venue for the Chargers, but figure out how to pay for it, according to David Garrick of U-T San Diego. In a somewhat snarky response, the Chargers reminded the city of nine previous proposals put forth by the team, as well as the failure of a similar committee, but still pledged cooperation.
- Firing executive Lake Dawson was probably the right move for the Titans, writes Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com. Labeling Dawson a “middle man,” Kuharsky argues that Tennessee’s front office is now more streamlined, with the heads of the college scouting and pro scouting departments reporting directly to GM Ruston Webster.
North Notes: Packers, Allen, Bears, Teddy
Less than two weeks after a pair of special teams blunders contributed to the Packers’ NFC Championship Game loss, Green Bay has fired special teams coach Shawn Slocum, the team announced. Slocum, who’d been with the Packers since 2006, had led an ST unit that had been below-average in recent seasons, finishing 18th, 19th, and 22nd in Football Outsiders’ special teams DVOA in ’12, ’13, and ’14, respectively. As Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com notes, Slocum is just the second coordinator to be fired by head coach Mike McCarthy, the first being DC Bob Sanders, who was let go after the 2008 season.
Here’s more from the North divisions:
- The Bears are likely to employ a 3-4 defense in 2015 under new coordinator Vic Fangio, and veteran defensive end (or linebacker, perhaps?) Jared Allen has a few concerns about the transition. “It’s not that I can’t do it,” Allen told Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune (link via Kevin Patra of NFL.com). “For me, it is a question of what kind of system are we going to run? How do I fit in the system? How do we achieve our goals? These things will play out.” Both his 2015 base salary and roster bonus (which total $12.5MM) are guaranteed, so Allen, who admits he’d rather play end in a 4-3 look, will be on Chicago’s roster.
- Chicago’s coaching staff will see some continuity at the receiver position, as the Bears announced Mike Groh will remain in his role as WR coach. Groh, the son of longtime NFL/NCAA coach Al Groh, served under ex-head coach Marc Trestman from 2013-14, and helped Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery put together outstanding seasons.
- The Vikings nabbed quarterback Teddy Bridgewater with the 32nd pick in last year’s draft, and according to Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, the Lousiville product was reportedly happy he didn’t last elsewhere. A source tells Cabot that Bridgewater didn’t want to be selected by the QB-needy Browns because he knew that some in the Cleveland organization preferred Johnny Manziel. This jibes with what we’ve heard in the past, including reports that offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan left the Browns due to disputes over the selection of Manziel.
Goodell On LA, Rams, London, Vegas, Saints
As is customary, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell took questions from the media today during his Super Bowl press conference, and while a number of queries were unsurprisingly related to the DeflateGate controversy, Goodell also touched on some other noteworthy topics. Let’s take a look the highlights, via a transcript provided by the Seattle Times:
On the possibility of relocating a team to Los Angeles:
The ownership takes very seriously the obligation for us to vote on any serious matter, including relocation of a franchise. There’s a relocation policy that is very clear…[T]here have been no determinations of us going to Los Angeles, any particular team going to Los Angeles or going to any particular stadium. We have several alternatives that we’re evaluating from a site standpoint.
There are teams that are interested, but are trying to work their issues out locally. As a league, we haven’t gotten to that stage yet, and it will all be subject to our relocation policy. There are requirements in that policy, as you know, particularly as it relates to cooperation and working to make sure they solve the issues in their local market. I’m confident that all of that will be covered within the relocation policy and with our membership approval.”
On the Rams staying in St. Louis:
“…[W]e want all of our franchises to stay in the current markets. That’s a shared responsibility. That’s something that we all have to work together on. The league has programs, including stadium funding programs that we make available. We will work and have worked with communities, including St. Louis. We also will make sure that we’re engaging the business community and the public sector in a way that can help us lead to solutions that work in those communities…
(Rams owner) Stan (Kroenke) has been working on the stadium issue in St. Louis, as you know, for several years. They had a very formal process as part of their lease. They went through that entire process. It did not result in a solution that works for either St. Louis or the team. I don’t think the stadium is a surprise to anybody in any market that is having these issues. There has been quite a bit of discussion about it, and the St. Louis representatives seem determined to build a stadium.”
On placing a team in London:
“I would tell you that London has done not only everything that we expected, but more than we expected. They’re responding to the game better than we ever dreamed, with more enthusiasm, more passion…We want to continue to respond to that fan interest and if we do, we don’t know where it will go, but I think there is great potential in London for the NFL.”
On the viability of housing a team in Las Vegas:
“…I haven’t had any dialogue with officials in Las Vegas about how that could happen successfully for Las Vegas and for the NFL. A stadium would be a big component to that. I’m not sure that exists right now. I do understand the passion of the fans in Las Vegas and their interest in football.”
On the Saints ownership situation:
“I spoke to Tom Benson just the other day. He was going to the office as usual. He was in complete control and energetic, excited about getting to the office, asking about league issues. As you know, he’s been one of our more active owners in the league on various committees. They obviously have a dispute going on, which is always unfortunate. In this case it deals with succession as opposed to current management. Tom Benson is a man of great integrity and a man that is enthusiastic about the NFL, the Saints and New Orleans and somebody that has demonstrated to me he’s got complete control over what he’s doing to make sure that organization goes in the right direction.”
On the Bills’ need for a new stadium:
“I do believe that a stadium long term is going to be needed in that marketplace. I’m from western New York. I love Ralph Wilson Stadium, but it’s got to compete against a lot of these new stadiums that have a lot of very important features that that stadium doesn’t have. So they are going through that process. We will certainly work with them, cooperate with them, and if we can be helpful, we will.”
On the Chargers’ need for a new stadium:
“They do need a new stadium for the Chargers to be successful there long term. It’s one of the oldest stadiums in the league, if not the oldest stadium in the league…I’m glad to hear (the mayor of San Diego) has got a task force going. But they have been working at this for 12 years, and it’s something that we need to see tangible results sooner rather than later.”
Bernard Pollard Requests Release From Titans
Veteran NFL safety Bernard Pollard has asked to be released from his contract with the Titans, according to Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean, who adds that Pollard made his request to general manager Ruston Webster at the end of the 2014 season. Per Wyatt, the 30-year-old Pollard has not yet been informed of the team’s decision.
2014 was Pollard’s second season in Tennessee — after playing under a one-year deal in 2013 that netted him $2MM, Pollard re-signed with the Titans last March, inking a two-year extension. His base salary is set to increase from $1.65MM last year to $3.1MM in 2015, but that money isn’t guaranteed. If the Titans do honor Pollard’s request for release, they’d only be on the hook for a prorated portion of his signing bonus, meaning they’d be left with just $425K in dead money.
The Titans are Pollard’s fourth NFL team, as he’s also spent time with the Chiefs, Texans, and Ravens — he won a Super Bowl with Baltimore in 2013. He played in just five games last season before landing on injured reserve with an Achilles injury, but he was a solid player as recently as 2013, when he racked up 77 tackles while starting all 16 games, and rated as the league’s No. 21 safety among 86 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In total, Pollard has amassed almost 550 tackles during his nine-year career, while adding 12 interceptions and 11 forced fumbles.
Given the Titans recent lack of success, it’s likely that Pollard’s frustration with the organization as a whole serves as motive. As Wyatt writes, Pollard seemed to indicate as recently as last month that Tennessee wasn’t where he wanted to be. “I am not getting any younger, so I want to win, I really do, I want to win,” Pollard said. “Looking at how things took place this year, looking at where (the Titans) need to be for next year, that is a tough, tough question, and I don’t even know if they can give me the answer.” Additionally, Bernard took to Twitter following the Titans’ firing of executive Lake Dawson earlier today, arguing that the “wrong guy” had been let go.
Eagles Eyeing Chris Polian For Exec Role
MONDAY, 10:41am: A source tells Geoff Mosher of CSNPhilly.com (Twitter links) that Polian hasn’t actually interviewed twice with the Eagles, but Mosher adds that he still thinks Polian is a “serious candidate” for the team’s front office opening.
SUNDAY, 4:09pm: The Eagles have been searching for a general manager since they restructured their front office on January 2, and it seems like they could be getting closer to finding their front office executive. According to Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Jaguars director of pro scouting Chris Polian recently had a second interview with the Eagles, and is considered a “serious candidate” for the position. ESPN’s Adam Caplan had appeared on 97.5 The Fanatic on Friday, speculating that Polian was the favorite for the job because he was simply the most qualified of the candidates (link via BleedingGreenNation.com).
The protracted nature of Philadelphia’s GM hunt must be in part attributed to a lack of definition of roles (at least from an outsider’s perspective). In announcing their front office changes in January, the Eagles said head Chip Kelly, who already owned final say over the 53-man roster, would take control of the club’s personnel department, while former GM Howie Roseman was “promoted” to the executive vice president of football operations, a position that will see him deal with cap and salary management.
Because Kelly and Roseman seem to have control over the two main functions of a front office, the question then becomes: what exactly would Polian’s role be? It’s a query that candidates interested in the position have surely asked, and one that Jacksonville should also be concerned with. If Polian won’t have say over the roster, or the draft, or cap management in Philadelphia, what is the Jaguars’ incentive to let him leave? These questions only add to the confusion reported by McLane earlier today, as many around the league still aren’t sure how the Eagles’ front office is structured.
Polian, 42, is the son of longtime NFL executive Bill Polian. He served as general manager of the Colts from 2009-11 after his father was promoted to team president, but was fired after the club posted a 2-14 record in ’11. He’s one of only two candidates known to have interviewed for the Eagles’ GM job, with the other being the Texans’ Brian Gaine, whose flirtation with Philadelphia earned him a promotion to director of player personnel. Polian is the only contender who has interviewed twice for the position.
East Notes: Fins, Clay, Pats, Ayers, Washington
The Dolphins would like to re-sign impending free agent tight end Charles Clay, and are preparing an offer with the intention to submit it to Clay’s representatives in the coming weeks, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Clay, who turns 26 in about three weeks, earned $1.431MM in base salary last season, and should be in for nice pay increase despite a somewhat disappointing campaign that saw him catch 58 passes for 589 yards and three touchdowns. I profiled Clay as an extension candidate before the season, and while the four-year, ~$21MM contract I projected at the time now seems a tad high, a $4MM AAV isn’t out of the question.
Let’s look at some more notes from the two East divisions:
- In the same article, Jackson passes along some other Dolphins news, including Miami’s visit with defensive tackle prospect Danny Shelton, and league-wide interest in Dolphins executives Chris Grier and Adam Engroff.
- The NFL bears significant responsibility in the DeflateGate scandal, argues Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. Despite vowing to investigate the matter fully, the league hasn’t discovered much in the way of evidence or intent, writes Florio. Instead, the Patriots and the NFL as a whole are now being tarnished in what is the most important week in the league calendar.
- Akeem Ayers doesn’t have any hard feelings towards the Titans regarding the trade that sent him to the Patriots, as the linebacker tells Mark Daniels of the Providence Journal. “They made a decision that they felt like they needed to make,” said Ayers. “…I just took it as motivation and especially being here on this team, I feel like they did me a favor, honestly…I came here and I did a good job here and we’re going to the Super Bowl.” New England acquired Ayers and a seventh-round pick for a 2015 sixth-rounder. A free agent at season’s end, the 25-year-old Ayers registered 20 tackles and four sacks in nine games with the Pats.
- Washington would like to speak with Packers senior personnel executive Alonso Highsmith about its director of personnel position, but hasn’t heard back from Green Bay as of yet, tweets Mike Garafolo of FOX Sports.