Draft Notes: Sunday
As we inch ever closer to the draft, we will continue to round up rumors on various prospects and the teams they visit. We will update this post throughout the day as more notes roll in:
- Wilson writes that Troy WR Chandler Worthy is “drawing interest” from the Rams, Texans, and Falcons.
- Several weeks ago, PFR’s Zach Links wrote that Maryland DT Darus Kilgo had met with the Packers, Patriots, and Dolphins, and Aaron Wilson of The Baltimore Sun reports today that Kilgo has also visited with Washington and the Bills.
Rivers Rumors Just A “Mating Dance”?
One prominent NFL scribe has already offered his take on the Philip Rivers-to-Tennessee rumors this morning, and now Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk provides his opinion on the matter. Expanding on a piece he wrote earlier this month, Florio points out that all of the chatter surrounding the Chargers’ alleged desire to trade Rivers, whose contract expires at the end of the year, is largely just a “mating dance” between two parties who actually have mutual interest in extending their relationship beyond 2015.
For his part, Rivers knows that his value to the team–which is already quite high given his durability and the caliber of his play–could potentially increase dramatically should the team move to Los Angeles, as the Chargers will be hungry to make a good first impression in the nation’s No. 2 market. The Chargers know he is right, but that does not mean they want to pay Rivers any more than fair market value for a quarterback of his age and abilities.
Furthermore, outside of the Titans, no real suitors for Rivers have emerged over the past month or so. And there’s not much chance that one will. As Florio writes, if the Chargers were intent on trading up to the No. 2 overall selection, it would have happened by now. The fact that these rumors have been swirling for over a month without any substantial progress being made–like the parameters of a new contract between Rivers and the Titans–suggest that these rumblings are mostly predicated on contract leverage.
After all, it is hard to believe that the Chargers would want to start anew with an unproven rookie when Rivers may well have four or five good years left, and it is equally hard to believe that Rivers would want to go to a team that, even with him under center, would be unlikely to compete for a playoff spot. Any team trading for Rivers without a multi-year deal in place would be getting a one-year rental, and those teams that would want to make a deal for Rivers are generally not destinations that he would be willing to commit to long-term. So as the tango continues, it looks more and more like Rivers will be staying put; the only question is what it will cost the Chargers to keep him in San Diego (or LA).
AFC Notes: Hightower, Broncos, Titans
In addition to putting the finishing touches on their big board, the Patriots have a number of personnel decisions to make before draft day, writes Karen Guregian of The Boston Herald. Specifically, New England needs to decide whether to pick up the fifth-year options on linebacker Dont’a Hightower and defensive end Chandler Jones (the deadline for teams to exercise that option is May 3, one day after the conclusion of the draft).
The fifth-year option would prevent both players from becoming free agents after the 2015 season, so on the surface it appears like an easy decision. And for Hightower, Guregian believes it is. She says not only should the Patriots exercise the option, they should lock Hightower up long-term. Guregian points to Hightower’s critical role in the team’s Super Bowl run last season, which included establishing himself as a playmaker, a leader, and a play-caller in Jerod Mayo‘s absence.
Although Jones represents something of a more difficult decision, as injuries and his struggles against the run tip the scales towards the one-year option rather than a multi-year extension, Guregian writes that Hightower, along with Jamie Collins, are the future of the New England’s defense and should be treated accordingly.
Let’s take a look at a few more notes from the AFC:
- The Dolphins will have an official visit with LSU offensive lineman La’el Collins next week, writes Omar Kelly of The Sun-Sentinel. One league source pegs Collins as the frontrunner for Miami’s first-round pick, No. 14 overall, if he is still available when the Dolphins are on the clock.
- Mike Klis of The Denver Post expects the Broncos to trade up from their No. 28 overall pick, noting that the team has 10 picks but is in win-now mode and does not have 10 available roster spots.
- In the wake of the persistent Philip Rivers-to-Tennessee rumors, Ben Volin of The Boston Globe offers his two cents, asserting his belief that a trade will not happen. For one, although Rivers is by no means a young man relative to other professional athletes, his durability and consistent level of play suggest it is far to soon to worry about his performance taking a sudden downturn. Furthermore, Marcus Mariota, who the Chargers would presumably draft to replace Rivers, is by no means a surefire prospect, which suggests San Diego should stay put at the No. 17 overall pick in the draft and continue to roll with Rivers.
- Similarly, Volin believes the Titans‘ statements regarding how much they like second-year quarterback Zach Mettenberger are not a ruse. Given the stalled progress of passers like Robert Griffin III and Colin Kaepernick, Volin believes Tennessee did not make those statements in an effort to disguise their desire to draft Mariota.
Jaguars Give Posluszny One-Year Extension
THURSDAY, 3:46pm: The Jaguars officially announced Posluszny’s extension, reports Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com on Twitter. If the middle linebacker’s cap charge for 2015 is now $5MM, the Jags will have a league-high $39.5MM of cap space, according to Ryan O’Halloran and Hays Carlyon of the Florida Times-Union. This could create another busy offseason in Jacksonville next year.
THURSDAY, 12:27pm: According to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (via Twitter), Posluszny will now earn $15MM — or as much as $18MM, depending on whether he meets incentives — over the next three years. He had previously been slated to earn $7.5MM annually over the next two years.
WEDNESDAY, 11:20pm: Jaguars linebacker Paul Posluszny, who had been under club control for two more seasons, has agreed to a one-year extension with the team, according to Alex Marvez of FOXSports.com (via Twitter).
Posluszny, 30, signed a six-year, $42MM deal with Jacksonville in 2011 after excelling in his first few years in the league with the Bills, who selected the Penn State product in the second round of the 2007 draft. He has received somewhat mixed reviews from Pro Football Focus, sometimes being included in or near the top 10 middle linebackers in the league and other times being ranked closer to the bottom of the list of qualified players. However, he has consistently posted strong tackle numbers, and he has put up 12 sacks, 11 interceptions, and eight forced fumbles over the course of his career.
He has also been durable, as last season marked the first time since his rookie campaign that Posluszny had missed any significant action due to injury. He tore his pectoral muscle in the team’s seventh game of the season and was placed on IR shortly thereafter. He was coming off his first Pro Bowl nod, having recorded 162 tackles to go along with three sacks, two interceptions, and nine passes defended in 2013.
PFR’s Luke Adams wrote back in December that Posluszny would be open to reducing his $9.5MM cap number for 2015 in exchange for another year added to his contract, and this extension will presumably accomplish just that.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Hakeem Nicks
After Michael Crabtree signed with the Raiders earlier this week, Hakeem Nicks suddenly became the most intriguing free-agent wide receiver still on the market. Greg Jennings might have something to say about that, but in terms of potential upside, Nicks presents the best opportunity for a low-risk investment to pay significant dividends.
At just 27, Nicks already has a fairly impressive resume. In the 2010 and 2011 seasons, the former 29th-overall pick averaged 78 receptions for more than 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns for the Giants. He was also a major contributor to New York’s Super Bowl title in 2011, averaging seven receptions and 111 yards per game over the team’s four-game playoff run (including a 10-catch, 109-yard performance in Super Bowl XLVI). He also grabbed four touchdowns during that stretch. Combined with Victor Cruz’s breakout 2011 season, it appeared as if Eli Manning would have one of the most dynamic pair of receivers in the league at his disposal for the foreseeable future.
Unfortunately, the injury bug struck Nicks as the Giants prepared to defend their title. During OTAs in May 2012, Nicks fractured the fifth metatarsal in his right foot and was forced to undergo surgery. As a result, he missed valuable training camp time, and even when he returned to the field, he had to play through pain. He landed hard on his right knee during the Giants’ Week 2 contest that year, and he ultimately missed three consecutive games due to knee swelling.
Although he suited up on game days the rest of the season, he was rarely able to practice with the team, and it was clear that the injuries had sapped a great deal of his explosiveness and playmaking ability. His numbers—and the Giants’ offense—suffered as a result. In the last two games of the season, Nicks failed to record a single catch, playing just one snap in the finale.
The former North Carolina standout enjoyed a statistical uptick in 2013, but he failed to crack 900 receiving yards and did not catch a single touchdown despite playing in 15 games. He therefore signed a one-year “prove it” deal with the Colts last season, but he was unable to prove much of anything. Nicks was lost in the shuffle of an otherwise explosive aerial attack led by Andrew Luck, who favored Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton, and Coby Fleener. Nicks recorded a mere 38 catches for 405 yards and four touchdowns, and he was targeted just 68 times after receiving over 100 targets in each of his previous four years with the Giants.
The once-promising wideout is consequently looking for another team to offer him the same opportunity the Colts did. Nicks has visited with both the 49ers and Titans, but has otherwise failed to generate a great deal of interest. It is somewhat telling that the Dolphins, who are known to be in the market for a veteran receiver, were apparently more interested in Crabtree, Jennings, and Wes Welker.
Nicks may not be able to recapture his 2011 form, but given his relative youth and record of productivity, one would have to think there is some truth to his assertion that he is “nowhere near finished.” Perhaps on a team like Tennessee or Miami, which feature several talented but young receivers, Nicks would be able to succeed. But if San Francisco is still interested, the 49ers may represent the best opportunity for him. He offers some of the downfield ability of Torrey Smith but is more akin to Anquan Boldin in terms of his route-running and good hands, and is therefore a quality complement to both. Guided by a capable quarterback in Colin Kaepernick, Nicks could thrive in the Bay Area.
But regardless of where he lands, it would be a surprise for him to get much more than the one-year, $3MM deal that Crabtree just signed. And if his 2015 numbers do not show a marked improvement over what he compiled in 2014, he may, in fact, be finished, as the promise of 2011 gets pushed further into the rear-view mirror.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Carson Stadium Project Takes Step Forward
The Carson stadium project took a big step forward today, as the Los Angeles County Registrar’s office has certified the signatures obtained in support of the project, according to Nathan Fenno of the Los Angeles Times. The Carson proposal is the brainchild of the Chargers and Raiders, who are planning a shared, $1.7 billion stadium in Carson–which is on the edge of Los Angeles–if both teams are unable to get new stadiums in their current cities.
Of course, Rams owner Stan Kroenke is hoping to build an 80,000-seat stadium in Inglewood, roughly 10 miles from downtown LA, and we heard just a few weeks ago that Kroenke, whose proposal was approved by the Inglewood City Council back in February, was farther along in the process than the Carson group. However, the verification of signatures in support of the Carson project is an important milestone, as ESPN’s Adam Caplan notes. Caplan writes, “The proposal will go to the City Council, which could vote as soon as Tuesday to schedule an election or consider the plan without sending it to local voters.”
As Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reiterates, there will not be two stadiums in Los Angeles; either the Carson project or the Inglewood project will win out (assuming, of course, that all teams currently in the mix to move to LA do not stay put, which is looking increasingly unlikely). Meanwhile, Florio writes that the project that would keep the Chargers in San Diego is lagging far behind both LA proposals, as it “lacks a stadium design, specific funding sources, or support from the Chargers.” The Carson government is capitalizing on that lack of progress, and in so doing, it might have gained a little ground on Kroenke.
Sunday Roundup: NFC North, ‘Fins, 49ers
Golf takes its yearly ascent to the forefront of many sports fans’ minds today, but before the battle for the Green Jacket begins, let’s take a look at some links from around the NFL:
- The Packers are one of the teams that do not announce which prospects they will bring in for their allotted 30 pre-draft visits, but Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com provides a list of players–compiled by ESPN and other outlets–that have visited, or will visit, with Green Bay.
- The Lions need a new tailback after losing Reggie Bush to free agency, but Kyle Meinke of MLive.com says the team is not targeting a specific type of runner; speed, power, and hybrid backs are all on the table.
- Dan Wiederer of The Chicago Tribune examines the pros and cons of drafting one of this year’s elite wide receiver prospects, which the Bears have the opportunity to do with the No. 7 overall selection.
- There is a deep class of cornerbacks for the Ravens to choose from in this year’s draft, writes Clifton Brown of CSNBaltimore.com. In addition to wide receiver, the secondary is a major area of concern for Baltimore.
- James Walker of ESPN.com wonders if the Dolphins should trade up from their No. 14 overall pick in the draft to land one of this year’s elite receivers or linebackers, and he lists the costs and benefits of such a move. Walker ultimately notes (via Twitter) that Miami has too many holes and too few draft picks to consider trading into the top 10.
- After acquiring Jeron Johnson and Dashon Goldson over the past couple of weeks, Tarik El-Bashir and Rich Tandler of CSNWashington.com wonder if Washington should nonetheless invest an early-round pick in a safety, which has been a weakness for the team in recent seasons.
- The Eagles brought in Penn State offensive tackle Donovan Smith for a visit, writes Aaron Wilson of The Baltimore Sun.
- Despite losing Frank Gore to free agency, the 49ers have a talented pair of running backs in Carlos Hyde and Reggie Bush, and as Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News observes, Kendall Hunter will return to the field following an ACL tear that ended his 2014 season before it started. San Francisco’s roster also includes Jarryd Hayne, a former Australian rugby star who is trying to “convert” to American football and is expected to compete as a return specialist and possibly a backup running back. As Josh Alper of Pro Football Talk writes, all of the team’s rushing talent suggests that the 49ers will continue to be among the league leaders in rushing attempts, as they have been in each of the past four seasons.
Ravens Face Major WR Concerns
Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome is widely regarded as one of the best executives in the NFL. He has overseen two Super Bowl titles, a handful of division titles, and since John Harbaugh was hired and Joe Flacco was drafted in 2008, Baltimore has made the playoffs six times, advanced to the AFC Championship on three occasions, and captured one Lombardi Trophy.
But even the best general managers have their Achilles’ heel, and Newsome’s biggest weakness is his ability to draft a capable wide receiver. Torrey Smith was easily the best receiver Newsome has drafted, and although Smith certainly was a key contributor to the Ravens’ recent success, he is far from a No. 1 target. Baltimore’s willingness to let Smith walk in free agency this year speaks volumes about the team’s faith in him–though the Ravens’ tight salary cap situation was also a major factor in that decision–and very few of the receivers the team has drafted have gone on to become impact players.
As a result, the Ravens have increasingly turned to veterans like Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith, Sr. to fill the void. Given the quality performances of those players, many believed that the Ravens would pursue another veteran this offseason. But the team probably could not have afforded first-tier options like Jeremy Maclin and Randall Cobb, and it has shown little to no interest in the next tier of free agents, which includes players like Michael Crabtree and Hakeem Nicks (though the Ravens reportedly were interested in Mike Wallace if the Dolphins had released him).
Baltimore therefore looks prepared to head into the draft with a capable but aged Steve Smith and a host of talented but largely unproven players like Michael Campanaro, Kamar Aiken, and Marlon Brown. All of those players, Smith included, are possession receivers and do not really have the ability to stretch a defense like Torrey Smith, or even Jacoby Jones, did.
But as Mike Preston of The Baltimore Sun points out, there will most likely be big-play talent on the board when the Ravens are on the clock with their No. 26 overall selection. Indeed, players like Jaelen Strong, Devin Smith, and Dorial Green-Beckham may all be on the board. The problem is that Newsome’s track record as it pertains to wide receivers works against him, and his strict adherence to the best player available approach suggests the team may not even take a wideout in the first several rounds. The front office, in addition to hyping the players already on the roster, has noted that this year’s class is a deep one, with a lot of talent available throughout the draft.
Those words may not be reassuring to Ravens fans, who vividly remember the team trading Boldin after winning the Super Bowl in 2012 and going into 2013 with Torrey Smith and a lot of question marks. In addition to poor offensive line play, the lack of receiving depth doomed the 2013 campaign and led to the Ravens’ missing the playoffs for the only time in the Harbaugh/Flacco era.
Newsome, who spoke about learning from his past mistakes in terms of drafting receiving talent, has assuredly learned from his 2013 missteps as well. As such, if the Ravens do not land one of the top receivers in this year’s draft, one would think that the team would target one of the remaining free agent options, or perhaps try to trade for someone like Pierre Garcon. But until that happens, the Ravens’ lack of proven receiving talent–the team also has major question marks at tight end, given that Crockett Gillmore is currently at the top of the depth chart–represents one of the few glaring holes on an otherwise talented roster. And Newsome will have to buck past trends in order to fill that hole.
More Mailbags: Draft, G. Johnson, Pagano
There are an increasing number of mailbags as we get closer to the draft, so let’s round up a few more:
- ESPN’s Jeff Dickerson looks at two top defensive line prospects the Bears could target in the first round of the draft, Shane Ray and Danny Shelton. Dickerson believes that Shelton, who is more of a two-down player, would be a good choice for the Bears if they were to trade back in the draft, but Chicago would be reaching if it took him with the No. 7 overall pick. Although Ray would need to adjust to playing outside linebacker after lining up primarily as a 4-3 defensive end in college, Dickerson believes the Bears would do well to add the elite pass rusher with their first selection.
- A number of publications have mocked Florida State offensive lineman Cameron Erving to the Browns, and Tony Grossi of ESPNCleveland.com–who did the same thing in his own mock draft–says there’s a good reason for that. Erving is the best center in the draft, and he also projects favorably at guard. Grossi writes that Erving is the only offensive lineman the Browns should consider in the first two rounds.
- The Lions also have big needs on the offensive and defensive lines, and Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com writes that it would not be a surprise to see the team address those areas in the early rounds of the draft. In a separate mailbag, Rothestein believes the team should let George Johnson leave for the Buccaneers, who recently signed the defensive lineman to an offer sheet.
- David Newton of ESPN.com believes that Washington’s Shaq Thompson, one of the best athletes in this year’s draft class, would be the ideal player for the Panthers to groom as an outside linebacker behind Thomas Davis. Speaking of Davis, Newton reiterates his belief that Carolina will get an extension done with the 32-year-old before the season begins, which, along with the planned long-term deal for Cam Newton, would require the team to somehow lower Charles Johnson‘s $20MM+ cap number.
- Mike Wells of ESPN.com examines whether or not the Colts will–or should–offer a long-term extension to head coach Chuck Pagano.
AFC East Notes: Albert, Jets, Pats
Branden Albert played in just nine games last year, his first in a Dolphins uniform after signing a five-year, $47MM free-agent contract with the club last March. He tore his ACL in a November matchup against the Lions, but as Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald notes, Albert is already in “two-a-day mode” as he fights to return from his injury.
Beasley writes, “Most days, [Albert] wakes up early and either rehabs with the Dolphins’ medical staff or lifts with personal trainer Manning Sumner at Legacy Fit in Miami.” After that, Albert heads into the boxing ring for intense training sessions with Matt Baiamonte, a Wynwood-based boxing trainer. When Albert suffered the ACL tear, the original prognosis was that he would be sidelined for nine to 12 months. But although he will not join the team for on-field activities this spring, he has not had any complications in his recovery thus far, and he plans to suit up for Miami in Week 1.
Albert believes he was at the top of his game before his injury, and if he can get back to that level, the Dolphins, who have a real shot at being playoff contenders in 2015, will have a much-needed anchor on an offensive line that figures to include young guards Dallas Thomas and Billy Turner.
Let’s take a look at some more notes from the AFC East:
- Confirming what we have heard over the past few days, Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News tweets that Kevin White, Bryce Petty, and Dante Fowler, Jr. will be visiting with the Jets on Monday and Tuesday.
- Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com believes Jets GM Mike Maccagnan has done a nice job of infusing the team with new talent, but he also thinks that Maccagnan has spent too much time shopping in the Older/Injured Players aisle. As Cimini writes, eight of the team’s 16 new players will be at least 30 when the season opens, and six of the sixteen ended 2014 on IR.
- In the same piece, Cimini examines the motivation behind the Jets‘ recent decision to exercise the fifth-year option for Quinton Coples.
- Despite the presence of Tom Brady under center, the Patriots have drafted more quarterbacks–eight–than all but four teams since Bill Belichick took over prior to the 2000 season. Christopher Price of WEEI.com looks at the reasons behind New England’s decision to consistently add signal-callers despite their enviable quarterback situation.