Chicago Bears News & Rumors

Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.

Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.

We’ve already looked at the AFC East, NFC East, and AFC North, so let’s dive into the NFC North…

Chicago Bears:

• Jermon Bushrod, T: There’s no disputing that Bushrod an improvement over what the Bears were running out at left tackle in the years preceding his arrival in the Windy City — but that doesn’t mean that he’s been worth the five-year, nearly $36MM contract he signed with Chicago prior to the 2013 season. He’s actually been well below-average, according to Pro Football Focus’ metrics (subscription required), which ranked Bushrod as the 55th- and 57th-best left tackle in the league in 2013 and 2014, respectively. $1MM of his $5MM base salary became fully guaranteed earlier this year, however, so if the Bears were going to cut him they already would’ve (and it’s not as as though there a litany of left tackle options lying around the free agent market, anyway). But given that we’ve passed the June 1 cutoff, Chicago could save $4.85MM by releasing the 30-year-old Bushrod now; if he falters again in ’15, I suspect the club might part ways with him next season (when they could save $4.3MM before June 1 and $6.5MM after said date). Prediction: not released.

• Matt Slauson, G: The only other Bear who is even remotely a candidate for release is another offensive lineman, left guard Matt Slauson. The 29-year-old played in only five contests last year, missing a few weeks at the beginning of the season due to a high ankle sprain before being placed on injured reserve after tearing his pectoral in Week 8. Similar to their situation at left tacke, the Bears don’t have any viable replacements were they to release Slauson, as Michael Ola was thoroughly unimpressive while filling in on the interior last season, and free agent signee Vlad Ducasse has never lived up to his second-round billing. Additionally, Slauson was quite good in 2013 after coming over from the Jets, and just signed a four-year deal last January, so there’s no reason Chicago won’t give him a chance to get healthy and prove his worth. Prediction: not released.

Detroit Lions:

• Ryan Broyles, WR: Broyles was only nine months removed from a torn ACL when he entered the league in 2012, and he suffered another ACL injury (opposite knee) during his rookie season. Midway through his sophomore season in 2013, he was dealt another blow as he ruptured his Achilles. Broyles was largely healthy during the 2014 campaign, but still didn’t play much — he’s totaled just 21 games during his three-year career. Thought to be an explosive slot weapon coming out of Oklahoma, it seems like injuries have sapped much of Broyles’ athleticism, and though the Lions would save less than $900K by cutting him, he seems like a long shot to earn a spot on Detroit’s roster, let alone make his first significant NFL contribution at age 27. Prediction: waived.

• Jason Jones, DE: The 29-year-old Jones is entering the final season of a three-year deal, and is scheduled to count nearly $4MM against Detroit’s cap. His first season with the Lions — 2013 — was a wash, as he played in just three games before suffering a season-ending injury. Jones played in (and started) all 16 games last season, but wasn’t very effective, ranking as the just the 47th 4-3 defensive end among 59 qualifiers, according to PFF. Digging into the numbers a little deeper gives a better overall impression, as Jones ranked in the top half the league against the run and total pressures, but he finished only 36th in pass rush productivity. The Lions lost both Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley to free agency, so they need all the help they can get along the defensive line — it’s just not clear if Jones is all that helpful. In his early Lions 53-man roster projection, Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com noted that Detroit likes that fact that Jones can play both end and tackle, surmising that that versatility could keep him on the roster (for the record, Rothstein did list Jones among his projected final 53). For now, Jones is probably safe, but if a backup shows something in training camp, or a high-quality option can be found via the waiver wire, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Jones out of a job. Prediction: not released.

• Stephen Tulloch, LB: Tulloch’s season was (somewhat embarrassingly) cut short when he tore his ACL while celebrating a sack during a Week 3 contest against the Packers. There a quite a few factors working against Tulloch’s return to Detroit: his recovery from his injury; his $5.8MM cap figure, $4.3MM of of which would be wiped out if he’s released; and the presence of fourth-year pro Tahir Whitehead, who filled in admirably at middle linebacker in Whitehead’s absence. However, Tulloch ranked as the second-best inside linebacker in the league as recently as 2013 (per PFF), and Tulloch indicated through an Instagram post earlier this year that he’d be back in Detroit for 2015. That post doesn’t mean his return is official, obviously, but it might indicate that Lions management told him he’d be retained. Prediction: not released.

Green Bay Packers:

• Mike Neal, LB: As I wrote earlier this year in the Packers Offseason Outlook post, Neal’s production simply doesn’t match his production. Signed to a two-year, $8MM deal prior to last season, the 28-year-old Neal went on to rank as the worst 3-4 outside linebacker in the league according to PFF, finishing as the worst pass-rusher at his position by a considerable margin. In May, however, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com noted that Neal had been paid a roster bonus — which Over the Cap pegs at $1.3MM — so if Green Bay had wanted to release Neal, they obviously wouldn’t have shelled out that cash. Prediction: not released.

• Julius Peppers, LB: Peppers is only listed here due to the combination of his age (35) and the large bump in his cap figure from 2014 ($3.5MM) to 2015 ($12MM). Neither his ’15 nor ’16 base salaries are guaranteed, so the Packers could clear all but the remaining $5MM in bonus money left on his deal. But Peppers was simply too valuable during his first year in Green Bay to let go, although the Packers could approach him about a restructure. Prediction: not released.

• Nick Perry, LB: Only three other 2012 first-round picks have accumulated fewer snaps than Perry during their first three seasons in the NFL: Dre Kirkpatrick, who was buried on the Bengals’ CB depth chart until the end of last season; David Wilson, who is now retired due to injuries; and A.J. Jenkins, perhaps the most obvious first-round bust from that ’12 draft. Perry doesn’t have much special teams value, either, although his ST snap percentage has risen from less than 4% his rookie year to 16.5% in 2014. The Packers already declined Perry’s 2016 option, and even with Clay Matthews moving to the inside, there’s no reason to pay Perry his full 2015 cap charge when the club could save nearly $1.5MM by cutting him. Between fourth-rounder Jake Ryan, and the several UDFAs Green Bay signed after the draft, the team should be able to rely on players making minimum salary to fill in its linebacking unit. Prediction: waived.

• Andrew Quarless, TE: The Packers reportedly don’t plan to release Quarless in the wake of his recent arrest, and while that could obviously change, it’s much too soon (and the situation too bereft of facts) to render a prediction.

Minnesota Vikings:

• Casey Matthews, LB: Matthews doesn’t fit our criteria of offering cap savings of $1MM+, but I included him here both because he played a semi-prominent role in Philadelphia last year after DeMeco Ryans suffered an injury, and because some expected him to possibly start for the Vikings following the departure of Jasper Brinkley. Minnesota selected UCLA linebacker Eric Kendricks in the second round of this year’s draft, however, and that combined with the presence of Audie Cole means that Matthews wouldn’t have a shot at much playing time. Prediction: released.

• Brian Robison, DE: Robison has been the Vikings’ full-time starter at left end four four seasons, and 2014 was his first truly sub-par season, as he graded as the league’s No. 52 4-3 defensive end among 59 qualifiers per PFF. He’d been above average in the years prior, especially excelling at pass rushing. Robison is signed for three more years, and Minnesota would actually save a good deal of cap space ($4.65MM) by releasing him, but given that he was still productive just two seasons ago, I’d expect him to be retained, especially given that the Vikings don’t have much in the way of defensive end depth. Prediction: not released.

• LB Chad Greenway accepted a pay cut earlier this offseason or he would have likely been released.

Between now and the start of NFL training camps, we’ll be taking a closer look at the top 2015 cap hits for teams around the league. We began our series last week by focusing on the NFC East and AFC East divisions, and today we’ll head up to the NFC North.

Listed below are the top 10 cap hits for the coming season for each of the four NFC North franchises, accompanied by some observations on the spending habits of those clubs. Let’s dive in….

Chicago Bears:

1. Jay Cutler, QB: $16,500,000
2. Jared Allen, DE/OLB: $12,500,000
3. Matt Forte, RB: $9,200,000
4. Jermon Bushrod, LT: $8,050,000
5. Lamarr Houston, DE/OLB: $6,990,000
6. Pernell McPhee, OLB: $6,675,000
7. Martellus Bennett, TE: $6,125,000
8. Brandon Marshall, WR: $5,625,000 (dead money)
9. Eddie Royal, WR: $5,500,000
10. Tim Jennings, CB: $5,250,000
    Total: $77,690,000

There are a couple missteps among the Bears’ top cap hits, but most of the players on this list are expected to be key contributors in the 2015 season, which is more than can be said for some teams. Still, it’s fair to wonder if the Bears would’ve made such big commitments to Allen and Houston if they knew they’d be bringing in a 3-4 defensive coordinator (Vic Fangio) this year — I’m guessing not.

The placement of two wideouts near the bottom of the Chicago top 10 is also worth noting. Marshall’s dead money charge couldn’t be avoided once the club decided to move on from him, but how effective will Royal be replacing Marshall’s production? His contract raised a few eyebrows around the league this offseason, as the Bears seem to be counting heavily on the veteran receiver recreating the rapport he had with Cutler back in Denver.

While offseason signees McPhee and Royal earn spots on this list, two players in the top 10 are seeking new contracts, as both Forte and Bennett skipped OTAs this spring. Bennett still has a couple years left on his deal, while Forte is entering a contract year.

Detroit Lions:

1. Calvin Johnson, WR: $20,558,000
2. Matthew Stafford, QB: $17,721,250
3. Ndamukong Suh, DT: $9,737,500 (dead money)
4. Haloti Ngata, DT: $8,500,000
5. Stephen Tulloch, LB: $5,800,000
6. Golden Tate, WR: $5,350,000
7. Ezekiel Ansah, DE: $5,071,228
8. DeAndre Levy, LB: $4,500,000
9. Jason Jones, DE: $3,983,334
10. Chris Houston, CB: $3,900,000 (dead money)
    Total: $85,121,312

No team we’ve examined so far has a combined top-10 cap number higher than the Lions’ $85MM+ figure. That amount is heavily impacted by the team’s “big three” of Johnson, Stafford, and Suh. Considering Suh counts for nearly $10MM against Detroit’s cap even now that he’s not on the team, it’s scary to think what his cap hit might have looked like in 2015 and future years if he had been re-signed.

Despite Suh’s departure, the Lions are still investing a significant chunk of cap space into their defensive line, with Ngata, Ansah, and Jones also in the top 10. With the Pro Bowler gone, it remains to be seen how productive that line can be going forward.

Given the two dead-money charges in Detroit’s top 10, along with the presence of multiple players coming back from injury-plagued 2014 campaigns, you could make the case that the Lions’ top 10 cap numbers are the worst of any in the NFC North — we’ll see if that catches up to the club this year on the heels of a successful 2014 season.

Green Bay Packers:

1. Aaron Rodgers, QB: $18,250,000
2. Clay Matthews, OLB: $12,700,000
3. Julius Peppers, DE/OLB: $12,000,000
4. Sam Shields, CB: $9,062,500
5. Josh Sitton, G: $7,000,000
6. T.J. Lang, G: $5,800,000
7. Randall Cobb, WR: $5,350,000
8. Morgan Burnett, S: $5,131,250
9. Jordy Nelson, WR: $4,600,000
10. Mike Neal, DL: $4,250,000
    Total: $84,143,750

The total cap cost of the Packers’ top 10 charges nearly equals that of the Lions, but Green Bay’s list is devoid of any dead money, and half of these players earned Pro Bowl spots last season. Two of those Pro Bowlers were Cobb and Nelson, whose cap hits will be on the rise after the 2015 season, with Cobb’s increasing to $12.75MM by 2017, while Nelson’s will be $11.55MM that same year.

Rodgers’ $18.25MM cap number represents the second-largest charge in the division for 2015, and bumps up Green Bay’s combined top-10 total, but the perennial MVP candidate is still a bargain at that price. There’s no doubt that any NFL team would rather carry Rodgers at $18.25MM than Stafford at $17.72MM or Cutler at $16.5MM.

A $12MM cap hit for a defensive player entering his age-35 season typically isn’t a great use of space, but Peppers was impressive in his first year in Green Bay, forcing six fumbles and returning two interceptions for touchdowns, in addition to recording seven sacks — he ranked as Pro Football Focus’ seventh-best 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014 (subscription required), so that cap number is manageable.

Minnesota Vikings:

1. Adrian Peterson, RB: $15,400,000
2. Mike Wallace, WR: $9,900,000
3. Everson Griffen, DE: $8,200,000
4. John Sullivan, C: $7,333,333
5. Phil Loadholt, RT: $6,750,000
6. Kyle Rudolph, TE: $6,440,625
7. Matt Kalil, LT: $6,290,644
8. Greg Jennings, WR: $6,000,000 (dead money)
9. Brian Robison, DE: $5,650,000
10. Chad Greenway, LB: $5,575,000
    Total: $77,539,602

The fact that Teddy Bridgewater is so inexpensive for the Vikings means they can allocate their cap room to other positions, and the team’s top-10 list is heavy on offensive skill players and offensive and defensive linemen. The list also features a mix of good and bad investments.

Among those bad investments: Jennings, who will count for $6MM in dead money against the club’s cap after being released earlier in the offseason. He and Wallace will combine for a cap number of nearly $16MM, which is way too much to pay for two veteran receivers whose best years may be behind them, particularly when one’s not even on the roster anymore. The Vikes will hope a change of scenery rejuvenates Wallace, but the former Steeler didn’t put up No. 1 receiver numbers in Miami.

Peterson is the most interesting case, sitting atop the Vikings’ top-10 list by a comfortable margin. The former MVP was still one of the league’s best running backs, if not the best, the last time we saw him on the field. But $15.4MM is a huge cap hit for any running back, and Peterson is 30 years old and coming off a lost season. It’s no wonder he wants to get a portion of his 2016 salary guaranteed — a down year could spell the end of Peterson’s time in Minnesota, given his pricey cap charge.

Information from Over the Cap was used in the creation of this post.