West Notes: Chiefs, Manning, Knighton
Count Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith among those who didn’t see the shakeup in San Francisco coming. “I think for me, it’s still just tough to believe all those guys are gone, all that turnover,” Smith told Mark Purdy of the San Jose Mercury News. “I wasn’t there so obviously it’s hard for me to speculate on any of that. I was just kind of shocked. There were a lot of ballgames that got won over the last few years, but for whatever reason, they couldn’t make it work.” Smith, of course, played for the 49ers from 2005-12 before being traded to Kansas City. Here’s more from the West divisions:
- Smith’s backup, Chase Daniel, is scheduled to count $4.8MM against the Chiefs’ cap in 2015, the highest such figure for a No. 2 quarterback in the league. Kansas City can save $3.8MM by releasing him, but Daniel doesn’t expect that to happen, according to Todd Palmer of the Kansas City Star. Indeed, as Palmer notes, cutting Daniel would leave the Chiefs with inexperienced options like Aaron Murray and Tyler Bray behind Smith, although the club did add Terrelle Pryor earlier this offseason.
- Following reports that Peyton Manning intends to play next season, Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap looks at a few salary cap maneuvers the Broncos could use to lower the future Hall of Famer’s cap hit. Fitzgerald writes that Denver could either convert most of Manning’s base salary into a signing bonus, or add voidable years to the end of his contract — either move would allow them to retain Demaryius Thomas and make other additions.
- Terrance Knighton is a perfect fit for the Broncos’ new 3-4 scheme, and although he wants to remain in Denver, there haven’t been any contract talks as of yet, writes Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. Renck speculates that Knighton could latch on with former Broncos defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio in Oakland, projecting a five-year, $30MM deal.
- Joel Corry of CBSSports.com looks at the top candidates to take a pay cut before the 2015 season, and three of the players — Sam Bradford of the Rams, Larry Fitzgerald of the Cardinals, and Tamba Hali of the Chiefs — reside in West divisions. I took a look at Hali’s chances of getting released last month.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Julius Thomas
One of the more rapid rising stars in the game, Julius Thomas presents an interesting case in his first foray into free agency. The two-year starting tight end made next to no impact in his first and second seasons, hampered by lingering ankle maladies. But his ensuing two slates create a robust market for the athletic, yet frequently unavailable target.
Does Thomas’ value lie in being an athletic tight end with elite ball skills, a package the Broncos haven’t unleashed since Shannon Sharpe, who played under then-offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak for most of the latter half of his career? Or is he an injury-prone Peyton Manning product? Since the 26-year-old Thomas morphed into a red zone dynamo, with 12 touchdown receptions in each of the past two seasons, and has positioned himself as this market’s top tight end, teams will bid big to find out.
But the best offer for the 2011 fourth-round pick might not come from the Broncos. Now transitioning back to Kubiak’s offense, which relies heavily on tight ends blocking and not splitting out wide as much, with multiple other dominant free agents to take care of — including Demaryius Thomas and Terrance Knighton — Denver may not be able to afford Julius Thomas’ services. He may not even be in large font on the Broncos’ offseason itinerary considering the scheme change and the numerous ancillary free agents from their 2011 draft class, which is easily the best under fifth-year GM John Elway‘s watch.
Undrafted Pro Bowl cornerback Chris Harris re-upped for 5 years and $42.5MM, and first-rounder Von Miller will play out his fifth-year option on a $9.7MM cap number next season from that class. But Thomas, left guard Orlando Franklin and free safety Rahim Moore (second round), middle linebacker Nate Irving (third) and in-line tight end Virgil Green (sixth) are all free agents who played key roles last season.
Thomas, who played for just $645K last year, has understandably been lukewarm to the idea of a hometown discount, something to which Demaryius Thomas and Knighton have been receptive. With Demaryius Thomas likely to be slapped with the franchise tag, as we discussed Tuesday, the Broncos will need to reach a long-term contract with Julius Thomas to keep him around. Even though Elway reiterated his desire to keep Julius Thomas in Denver in January, per Nicki Jhabvala of the Post, the former Big Sky basketball standout already turned down a deal that would’ve made him one of the league’s top four highest-paid tight ends, a source told Kils in October. With a projected $26MM+ in cap space and more than a third of their starters unsigned, the Broncos likely won’t bring back all of their top three free agents and may be stuck with just one after franchising Demaryius Thomas, should Knighton also receive a strong offer considering his career metamorphosis the past two years.
The case for the Broncos bringing back Julius Thomas depends on which version of Manning they think they’re getting back. The future Hall of Fame quarterback has inflated the numbers for plenty of pass-catchers over the past 18 years, but assuming he returns for his age-39 season — this probably will be the case after the QB iterated his desire to return Friday night — he will need as much firepower as possible to keep the Broncos on their current course. Thomas’ reputation as a bigger wide receiver who is ill-equipped for Kubiak’s system may not be entirely accurate, either. The 6-foot-4, 251-pound Division I-FCS product improved from 2013 when Pro Football Focus (subscription required) tabbed him as the NFL’s second-worst run-blocking tight end to last season when the site gave Thomas a positive grade and slotted him at No. 33 in the category — just two spots behind Rob Gronkowski.
Former Broncos head coach John Fox and OC Adam Gase in a way validated Thomas’ market value by orchestrating a dramatic overhaul of the offense — to a C.J. Anderson-heavy ground approach — the week after Thomas encountered ankle turmoil for the fourth straight season. Not that there weren’t additional factors in Manning’s decline in the season’s second half, but the Broncos’ offense didn’t look the same without its top touchdown target. Without Thomas at full strength, a level he didn’t return to after his latest injury, Manning had just two games with a quarterback rating over 86 — against the Dolphins and Chargers, respectively. This precipitous fall came after Manning (22 TD passes and just three interceptions in the Broncos’ first seven games) charted just one game under 110 in a stretch that wasn’t a bad imitation of his 2013 MVP effort. Thomas had nine TD grabs during Denver’s peak span and three multi-score showings.
The case against re-signing Thomas hinges on what the Broncos do with Knighton, how much they want to invest in the aforementioned 2011 draft class, how much money they allocate to reshape their offensive line and, perhaps most importantly, whether they feel the tight end’s availability justifies his likely high re-up price. As TheMMQB’s Peter King summarized last year, Thomas considered giving up football after a persistent ankle injury he sustained in 2011 dogged him throughout his first two seasons. Overall, ankle problems forced him to miss 28 games in four years. But teams with shaky tight end outlooks — the Raiders, Cardinals and Browns, to name a few — likely won’t have as much of an issue with Thomas’ negatives, considering a player with these numbers rarely reaches free agency.
If Jared Cook and Kyle Rudolph could ink $7MM-per-year deals within the last couple years — Cook as a free agent with production nowhere near Thomas’ — Thomas has a good chance to earn top-five money at the position. That top five currently ends with Rudolph and starts with Jimmy Graham‘s $10MM-per-year contract signed last year, per OverTheCap.com.
Re-signing Green ($645K in his fourth season last year) or someone like Dolphins free agent Charles Clay makes sense if the Broncos don’t want to meet Thomas’ salary wishes, but for a team whose title window depends heavily on the success of an aging quarterback with fading arm strength, it might be prudent to keep his main weapons around — especially the one who is Manning’s preferred option to finish off drives. The cap math adds up better for the Broncos if Manning renegotiates his salary — something we learned on Friday he could be willing to do — which is set for $19MM and a $21.5MM cap hit.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Peyton Manning Ready To Return?
The Denver Broncos may finally be able to devote their attention to their throng of priority free agents soon, because their five-time MVP and “non-free agent” appears ready to officially include them in his plans for a fourth season. Peyton Manning told Broncos officials he is ready to play at a “significant level” in 2015, sources told ESPN’s Chris Mortensen. Manning’s quadriceps injury that plagued him down the stretch of last season is fully healed, Mortensen reports.
Debated for weeks, Manning’s decision on whether or not to return for Year 18 and, as of right now, an NFL-high $19MM salary set for this season to go along with a $21.5MM cap figure — by far the highest on the Broncos — will likely coincide with his team’s ability to determine which of its free agents to focus on retaining.
A free agent group that includes Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Terrance Knighton and more than a third of the Broncos’ starting lineup, however, simply won’t be as effective without Manning, who’s fired 131 touchdown passes in his three years guiding their explosive offense. Mortensen also notes a key item that Pro Football Rumors also discussed earlier today: Manning could be receptive to a contract restructure, which would obviously go a long way in attempting to convince Julius Thomas and Knighton to remain Broncos with Demaryius Thomas almost certain to be franchise-tagged. The Broncos currently possess just more than $26MM in salary cap room, according to OverTheCap.com. Manning earned $18MM in 2012 and $15MM in each of the past two seasons.
Contingent with the the five-year contract he signed in 2012, Manning will still need to pass a physical sometime between Feb. 23 and March 5, according to the Denver Post, to make this re-agreement of sorts stick and guarantee his as-of-now $19MM this year.
The 39-year-old quarterback threw 39 touchdown passes last year, but his production took a nosedive in the season’s second half. But free of injuries, Manning opened the year throwing 22 touchdown passes to just three interceptions in last season’s first seven games. That recent level of play plus tonight’s reported proclamation essentially keeps the Broncos’ short-term Super Bowl window open despite their ugly loss to the Colts in the AFC divisional playoffs last month.
West Notes: 49ers, Manning, Cards, Lynch
49ers defensive end Justin Smith has yet to make a decision about whether or not he’ll return to the team for next season or end his playing career, and his decision could have a significant impact on another Niners defender, according to Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com. Maiocco observes that Aldon Smith, who is entering a contract year, often lines up on the same side of the field as the elder Smith, and benefits from the defensive end tying up pass blockers. If Justin Smith retires this offseason, it could have an effect on Aldon Smith’s earning potential as he enters a key year, says Maiocco.
Here’s more from around the NFL’s two West divisions:
- A league source tells NFL reporter Ross Tucker (Twitter link) that he thinks Peyton Manning may be in talks with the Broncos to restructure his contract in order to create cap room for the coming year. Reworking Manning’s deal could potentially create up to about $9MM in cap savings, which would give the club much more flexibility to re-sign key free agents like Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, and Terrance Knighton.
- Appearing on the Doug and Wolf show on Arizona Sports 98.7FM, Cardinals general manager Steve Keim confirmed that discussions are ongoing with wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, and that he’d like to have resolution on the issue in time for free agency (link via Darren Urban of AZCardinals.com). According to Keim, the club is currently about $16MM over the cap — incidentally, the veteran wideout is owed an $8MM base salary and an $8MM roster bonus for 2015.
- Keim also touched on a few other topics during his radio appearance, including cornerback Antonio Cromartie, who is eligible for free agency. The GM had nothing but praise for Cromartie’s efforts in 2014, and said the Cardinals would “love” to bring him back.
- Former Seahawks fullback Michael Robinson, who is a close friend of Marshawn Lynch, would bet that the running back returns to Seattle for the 2015 season, but he admits that he doesn’t know that for sure, writes Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times. “I don’t think Marshawn knows yet,” Robinson said on 710 ESPN in Seattle. “I don’t know what a timeline is, guys. I would guess that Marshawn doesn’t even really know what a timeline is. Probably going to be a feel thing and we’ll just see like everybody else.”
AFC Notes: Steelers, Manning, Forsett
Mark Kaboly of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review wonders if time is running out for third-string Steelers quarterback Landry Jones. Jones has been inactive for every game since being drafted in 2013 and hasn’t advanced enough to beat out veteran Bruce Gradkowski as Roethlisberger’s backup. Meanwhile, GM Kevin Colbert isn’t sure Jones ever will. “Has he progressed to the point where he beat out Bruce as the No. 2? No,” Colbert said. “Maybe he will, maybe he won’t. I think when you have young guys, at least they have that chance to grow.” More from the AFC..
- Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning met with GM John Elway at the team’s Dove Valley headquarters Thursday afternoon, according to Mike Klis of The Denver Post. Broncos president Joe Ellis boarded owner Pat Bowlen’s plane Thursday morning and flew to New Orleans to pick up Manning, who had been spending time in his hometown. Still, the soon-to-be 39-year-old is not ready to announce whether he’ll play in 2015.
- Free agent running back Justin Forsett told SiriusXM NFL Radio (audio link) that he definitely wants to be back with the Ravens, but he’s also looking for a significant commitment. Forsett, 29, had a breakout year in 2014, rushing for 1,266 yards.
- In his chat on Thursday afternoon with local reporters, new Raiders coach Jack Del Rio was non-committal when discussing Maurice Jones-Drew, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk notes. Del Rio obviously goes way back with MJD, but Del Rio sounded skeptical when discussing the veteran’s explosiveness, or lack thereof.
- It’ll be interesting to see how Del Rio and Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie‘s approaches mesh and what they agree and disagree on, Jerry McDonald of Bay Area Newspaper Group tweets. Del Rio is known for having a strong personality so it’s not a given that he can click with just anyone.
Extra Points: Rams, Bell, Incognito
Inglewood mayor James Butts told The Beast 980 that enough signatures have been acquired to support a stadium initiative. The next step in the process will be a public hearing regarding the stadium project on February 24th. Of course, there are many more hurdles to be cleared, but this is a potentially big step towards clearing a path toward the Rams heading west to L.A. More from around the NFL..
- Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell is expected to be suspended for the first two games of the 2015 season following his August arrest, sources told ESPN.com’s John Clayton. Since Bell is a first-time offender, that’s the maximum suspension allowed under the NFL’s new substance abuse policy.
- New Bills offensive guard Richie Incognito told Jeff Darlington of NFL Media that he discussed the Miami bullying scandal with his new team and told the club about what he learned from the situation. The 31-year-old says that he understands that this will be his last chance to play in the NFL given the hit that his reputation has taken.
- The Chargers regressed on special teams in 2014 and they’ll need some reinforcements for 2015, Tom Krasovic of U-T San Diego writes. Depending on how things break, it’s possible that the Bolts could carry a kickoff specialist. Of course, doing that would take a bit away from other area on the roster.
- The somewhat surprising decision by the Buccaneers to release quarterback Josh McCown could signal that the team is gearing up to spend significant dollars in free agency, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk writes. Meanwhile, if the Bucs don’t use that money to sign another quarterback in free agency, that almost certainly means the club will select either Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston with the No. 1 overall pick.
- Former Buccaneers GM Mark Dominik‘s experience with Josh Freeman is why he prefers Mariota to Winston, as Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times writes. Both have serious talent, but Mariota is regarded as someone with very high character.
- The Saints should retain Mark Ingram, but only at the right price, according to Sean Fazende of WVUE. Ingram stands as the fourth-best free agent tailback in Fazende’s view and he feels a four-year, $16MM offer with $6MM guaranteed would make sense for both sides.
- Michael Felger of CSNNE.com wonders if the Broncos might use Tom Brady‘s contract as leverage in contract talks.
Extra Points: D. Thomas, Mariota, Boyd
The Broncos are set to wield the franchise tag, if necessary, to keep Demaryius Thomas, according to NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport. Rapoport adds that there have been no talks between the team and Thomas’ camp for some time. The tag would cost Denver about $13MM and would limit the team’s options when it comes to tight end Julius Thomas. Here’s tonight’s look around the NFL…
- Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, a candidate to be picked first overall in April, has signed with Rep 1 Sports, and will be represented by agents Ryan Tollner, Bruce Tollner, and Chase Callahan, reports Liz Mullen of SportsBusiness Journal (via Twitter). The agency also represented QB Blake Bortles in last year’s draft.
- Tajh Boyd, a former Jets sixth-round pick, had a good workout for the Lions today, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). Nonetheless, Birkett says no deal is imminent between the team and the young quarterback.
- By the time the first round of this year’s NFL draft ends, a running back or two might be among the selections, which clashes with recent history. Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon and Georgia’s Todd Gurley could lead the draft’s running back rebirth, writes Jim Corbett of USA Today Sports.
- Oklahoma’s co-defensive coordinator and defensive line coach Jerry Montgomery is heading to to the Packers, according to Jason Kersey of The Oklahoman. There’s no sign of any defensive coaches leaving the Packers, so it seems that Montgomery will likely be installed in a new defensive position, according to Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette (via Twitter). His position will effectively be defense quality control, according to Alex Marvez of FOX Sports (via Twitter).
- At OverTheCap.com, Bryce Johnston has introduced a new concept called expected contract value to attempt to more accurately assess the true value of a player’s contract.
Luke Adams contributed to this post.
Wes Welker Mulling Retirement
Broncos wide receiver Wes Welker is considering retirement, according to Mike Garafolo of FOXSports.com. Years of head injuries and declining production have led the 33-year-old wide receiver to consider walking away from the game.
One of the sources said no final decision has been made by the pending free agent but Welker has told friends, family, and associates that he’s giving the notion some serious thought. The veteran has hauled in 122 catches for 1,242 yards and 12 touchdowns over the last two seasons with Denver, though his reception total dropped from 73 in 2013 to 49 in 2014. Welker had only two touchdowns this past season, a campaign where he wound up playing in just nine regular season contests. The most important number of all might be 3: the number of concussions Welker has suffered during his two years in Denver. His most recent documented concussion came in the 2014 preseason.
If Welker’s career is truly over, then he’ll have left the sport with one heck of a resume. Welker, an undrafted free agent out of Texas Tech, burst out of relative obscurity in 2006 with the Dolphins when he caught 67 balls for 687 yards. The next year, he landed with the Patriots where his career really took off. Serving as a trusted receiver for Tom Brady, Welker became a five-time Pro Bowler and a two-time First-Team All-Pro. With the unlikely 5’9 target as an integral part of the offensive attack, the Pats captured two AFC Championship trophies.
AFC West Notes: Manning, Coleman, Raiders
Our latest look at the AFC West touches on three of the four teams in the division. Let’s dive in….
- While Peyton Manning seems set to eventually announce his intent to return to the Broncos for the 2015 season, the team will need to make a decision of its own on the veteran quarterback. As Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link) explains, Denver could fail Manning on his physical and opt not to bring him back, reducing his cap hit by $16.5MM. Still, despite Manning’s huge cap hit and his potential injury risk, I’d be pretty shocked if the Broncos decided to go in another direction if the future Hall-of-Famer wants to return, and Cole concedes as much — however, he adds that he’d be surprised if Manning plays more than one final year in Denver.
- Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star profiles free-agent-to-be Kurt Coleman, who is coming off a bounce-back season. Although he only played about 36% of the Chiefs‘ defensive snaps, Coleman was productive when he saw the field, ranking 26th out of 87 qualified safeties, per Pro Football Focus’ grades (subscription required). According to Paylor, Coleman is expected to seek an annual salary in the $1.5-2MM range, and will favor opportunities where has a chance to compete for a starting job.
- According to new Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio, the topic of possible relocation surfaced when he met with owner Mark Davis during the interview process, and Davis assured him that he wants to keep the franchise in Oakland. “Those discussions absolutely came up and my question was ‘Are we going to stay in Oakland?’ and he said ‘My intent is to keep the team there,'” Del Rio said on the Jim Rome Show. “Look, I’m from this area, and that’s exactly what I wanted to hear. He’s trying to keep the team here and hopefully that will happen.”
- New Broncos defensive coordinator Wade Phillips confirmed that he’ll be bringing the 3-4 defense to Denver for the 2015 season, tweets Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com.
Extra Points: Bradford, Mariota, Manning
Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link) hears from executives that some quarterback-needy teams in position to potentially have a shot at drafting Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston would actually prefer to roll the dice on former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford, if the Rams decide to release him. Of course, that may end up being a moot point, since St. Louis has expressed interest in bringing back Bradford, assuming he’s willing to restructure his contract. More from around the NFL..
- Within that same video, Cole suggests that Ravens linebacker Pernell McPhee is likely to hit the open market next month, since the club views him as a complementary player rather than a core piece, and will want to use its available cap room elsewhere.
- Peyton Manning is back home in New Orleans and training with the intent to play the 2015 NFL season, a source close to the quarterback told Jeff Duncan of The Times-Picayune. Manning wants to talk with Broncos executive vice president and general manager John Elway before announcing his intentions for the 2015 season and hopes to chat with him in the next couple of days. Manning, 39 in March, is the NFL’s oldest starting quarterback.
- Mike Preston of The Baltimore Sun says the Ravens should pick a top cornerback in the draft. The top four cornerbacks right now appear to be Michigan State’s Trae Waynes, Wake Forest’s Kevin Johnson, Washington’s Marcus Peters, and LSU’s Jason Collins.
- While it appears that the previously reported changes to the Packers‘ coaching staff will indeed happen, the team has yet to formally finalize those moves, writes Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com.
- The Dolphins may not be in talks yet with quarterback Ryan Tannehill on a long-term contract extension, but one could certainly be in the cards. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald explored what a deal for the signal-caller might look like.
- The Raiders announced that they have hired Rod Woodson as an assistant defensive backs coach, according to Bill Williamson of ESPN.com (on Twitter). That means that defensive backs coach Marcus Robertson is the lone holdover from the 2014 staff.