Packers, Broncos Face Offseason Dilemmas
The Cowboys’ and Broncos‘ respective approaches with their All-Pro wide receivers following statement contract years will draw the most headlines this offseason, but not far off that radar will be the Packers‘ decision on slot target Randall Cobb.
Not possessing the traditional build of a No. 1 target Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant have, Cobb put together a consistent campaign — 106 catches, 1,465 yards, 13 touchdown receptions in 18 games — but the Packers have a history of allowing their receivers to walk and restocking the position with home-grown talent: see Greg Jennings in 2013 or James Jones last March. But Cobb’s case may be unique, writes Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.
Packers hall of fame receiver James Lofton weighed in on this issue, via Dunne.
“Which free-agent wide receiver has left a team and gone on to become a Pro Bowler on a new team?” Lofton said. “Vincent Jackson did in his first year at Tampa. … Emmanuel Sanders was (an alternate), when he went to Denver, but that’s an extenuating circumstance when you have Peyton Manning throwing the ball. So where can these guys find a home that was better than where they were? We saw Greg Jennings leave Green Bay — who was a good player — and now he’s an average player at best.”
Jennings exceeded 1,100 yards for three straight seasons in Green Bay — 2008-10 — but hasn’t topped 805 in two years with the Vikings. Jones scored 14 touchdowns in Green Bay in 2012 and set a career high in receptions with 73 in Oakland last year, but the 30-year-old averaged just 9.1 yards per catch as primarily a wide receiver. Almost exclusively a slot man when not stationed in the backfield, Cobb, only 24, averaged 14.1 per grab last season in a position not known for over-the-top proficiency, a statistic which increases his case to be paid like a top wide receiver. The franchise tag for wideouts is expected to be around $12.7MM, and the Packers have just more than $23MM in cap space, according to OverTheCap.com.
Meanwhile, the Broncos made a rather controversial shift from their three-wide receiver, no-huddle-based attack to a power-running approach midway through last season, and while free agents-to-be Orlando Franklin and Will Montgomery posted top-15 finishes at guard and center, respectively, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), new coach Gary Kubiak is likely to reshape the front based on his zone-blocking past, writes ESPN’s Jeff Legwold.
The Broncos entered the season with two first-team All-Pros on their front in left tackle Ryan Clady and right guard Louis Vasquez, but both regressed — Clady graded negatively on Pro Football Focus’ overall rating for the second time in four years after returning from the foot injury that ended his 2013 campaign after two games; Vasquez was marginalized when moved to right tackle to compensate for others’ struggles at that spot — and weakened the line. While Clady, the only lineman who played for the Broncos when they deployed Mike Shanahan‘s zone-blocking scheme, and Vasquez are expected back, Franklin and Montgomery are free agents, Manuel Ramirez slipped after a solid 2013, and the team is still without a viable right tackle option.
“Yes, that’s absolutely, 100 percent correct, three new starters minimum,” said ESPN analyst Mark Schlereth, a former Broncos zone-blocking bastion, via Legwold. “… Athletically speaking, they’re not good enough at left guard, center, and they need to find a right tackle.”
Solutions for both Cobb and Denver‘s offensive line don’t have to come from free agency, however, and may not require a No. 1 draft choice. From 2012-14, 37% of the Pro Bowlers came into the league in the third round or later, including 21 undrafted talents, ClevelandBrowns.com’s Kevin Jones measured. Cornerbacks from Denver (Chris Harris Jr.) and Green Bay (Sam Shields) contributed to that total as 2014 Pro Bowlers.
Sunday Roundup: Broncos, Hudson, Bradford
Let’s have a look at some links from around the league on this slow news day:
- Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post believes that, even if Peyton Manning returns in 2015, the Broncos should still find ways to get meaningful snaps for Brock Osweiler.
- Mike Klis of the Denver Post provides a complete offseason breakdown for the Broncos, which includes the team’s contingency plans should Manning retire (of course, his retirement would create an additional $19MM of cap room that would allow Denver to surround Osweiler with talent). Klis says the Broncos’ top priority will be finding a right tackle, and he therefore puts Bryan Bulaga at the top of the team’s shopping list.
- Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star fleshes out his tweet from a few days ago with a deeper look into the decision the Chiefs will have to make regarding free agent center Rodney Hudson. Paylor also confirms that the Chiefs are expected to use the franchise tag on Justin Houston.
- Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Rams are in pretty good financial shape. Even though the team’s cap number currently sits just shy of $143MM, with the projected league salary cap to be somewhere between $140MM and $150MM, Thomas notes that St. Louis has plenty of options to reduce their cap number, including a restructure of Sam Bradford‘s contract or even an outright release of the former No. 1 overall pick.
- Tommy Lawlor of PhiladelphiaEagles.com offers his offseason blueprint for the Eagles, noting that even if the team hands out a big-money deal to Jeremy Maclin, it should still have enough room to shop for a couple of starters in free agency.
- Free agent cornerback Ike Taylor said that if there is any one person he would follow, it would be Dick LeBeau (Twitter link to SiriusXM NFl Radio). As our Zach Links wrote several days ago, Taylor is one of a number of long-time Steelers who could finish their playing days in a Titans uniform under LeBeau’s tutelage.
- Summarizing reports from various sources, Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk confirms that free agent tight end Jermaine Gresham is unlikely to remain with the Bengals.
AFC Links: Manning, Ngata, Hughes, Incognito
Even with a coaching change and big decisions to make on Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas, the Broncos’ offseason will more or less be about whether or not Peyton Manning returns in 2015.
If Tony Dungy is correct, Manning will be back next year, according to the Associated Press on IndyStar.com.
“I was with him last week and he didn’t give me any indication one way or another, but he certainly didn’t say anything to me that led me to believe he wouldn’t be playing,” said Dungy. “My gut feeling is that he’ll be back unless he really has a health-related problem. He enjoys the team. He enjoys his teammates. I think he really wants to come back and play well and not let that be the last game of his career.”
Here are some more links from around the AFC:
- The Ravens have asked star defensive tackle Haloti Ngata to restructure his contract in the past, but for the first time they have leverage to make such a request this offseason, writes Mike Preston of the Baltimore Sun. Ngata is owed $8.5MM in base salary and will count for $16MM against the cap. Considering the Ravens need to free up money for free agency, the declining Ngata could have to look for a new team if he refuses to restructure his deal, and coming off a four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy, the team holds all the cards.
- The top priority for the Bills this winter should be figuring out a way to bring back Jerry Hughes, who has developed into one of the league’s most productive pass rushers, writes Jason Fitzgerald in his preview of Buffalo’s offseason at OverTheCap.com.
- The Bills will host Richie Incognito for an official visit and physical on Saturday, reports James Walker of ESPN (via Twitter). Incognito has not played since being suspended as part of the bulling investigation with the Dolphins. The team needs help at guard, with Erik Pears and Kraig Urbik unlikely to return to the team, writes Mike Rodak of ESPN (via Twitter). The meeting may be merely a formality, as the team is expected to sign Incognito should he pass his physical, according to Tim Graham of the Buffalo News (via Twitter).
- Cornerback Curtis Brown, a former Steelers third-round pick, will have a workout with the Jets on Tuesday, according to Rand Getlin of Yahoo! Sports (via Twitter).
- Malcolm Butler may be a Super Bowl hero, but the undrafted Patriots cornerback isn’t going to get hung up on one play. He is already concerned with continuing to improve and become a fixture in the NFL, writes Tom Curran of CSNNE.com. “I’m going to probably enjoy this moment, I’ll never forget it,” said Butler. “Probably for a couple more days or whatever, however it dies down. Have a little time to relax and then get back to work and just try to prove my point that this one play doesn’t [define] me. I don’t want to be known as a great player for one play, so I’ve got more to prove. So, I’ll have a little relax time and get back to work.”
Luke Adams contributed to this post.
La Canfora On Use Of The Franchise Tag
Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports notes how the use of the franchise tag is trending downward. In 2013, only six players received either franchise or transition tags. This offseason, despite the hard work of Luke Adams to profile the candidates for the tag on each team, that number could drop to four.
La Canfora notes that his guess of four does not include the possibility of a team franchising a kicker or punter in lieu of another viable candidate.
While the Lions, Giants, Packers, and Dolphins each have a viable candidate, each team is unlikely to tag that player. Those four are expected to try to avoid the tag in the effort to retain their stars.
Although the number could drop to four, anything less than that would be a huge surprise. As far as La Canfora sees it, there are four sure things in terms of the franchise tag (all four of which Luke did pin down in his rundown of franchise tag candidates, for the record).
- Demaryius Thomas to the Broncos is an obvious choice, whether his quarterback in 2015 is Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiler. The case in Denver has another wrinkle, with La Canfora writing that if the team could come to an agreement on a long-term deal with Thomas, then tight end Julius Thomas will become a candidate to be franchised instead, albeit not the sure thing Demaryius is.
- Fellow superstar wide receiver Dez Bryant is another lock to be hit with the tag. The Cowboys and owner Jerry Jones could be afraid to commit long-term money to him, but would be happy to keep him on a year-to-year situation even at a high price. There was also some steam gaining for DeMarco Murray’s chances of being tagged, but Bryant is seen as the superior offensive weapon.
- On the defensive side of the ball, an already capped-out Chiefs team will place the franchise tag on Justin Houston. Houston’s tag number is not set in stone, with the team likely to tag him as an outside linebacker, Houston and his agent will push for the slightly higher defense end number which comes with an additional $1.6MM based on La Canfora’s projections. Houston could be considered a defensive end because he is primarily a pass rusher in the Kansas City defense. Either way, La Canfora believes they will have to tag him regardless of the number, despite the cap gymnastics they might have to do to afford him.
- Staying on defense, the Patriots will likely tag safety Devin McCourty as they continue to focus on signing Darrelle Revis to a long-term deal. After Revis, the team should be able to negotiate a deal to keep McCourty as well, and keep the top two players in a very good secondary together as head coach Bill Belichick looks for a fifth Super Bowl victory.
AFC Notes: Wilfork, Manning, Colts, Texans
At least one recent report has suggested that Vince Wilfork may decide to go out on top and call it a career after the Patriots‘ latest Super Bowl win. However, according to Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald, retirement isn’t in Wilfork’s plans, at least for now.
“There’s no way in the world this is my last season,” Wilfork said. “I doubt if this is my last one. I still have a lot of football in me.”
Wilfork certainly seemed to have plenty left in the tank in 2014, as he logged 818 defensive snaps, which was 300+ more than the next-closest Patriots defensive lineman Chris Jones (511). But whether or not Wilfork’s career will continue in New England remains to be seen. The defensive lineman’s cap number jumps to nearly $9MM for 2015, and there’s plenty of non-guaranteed money left on the deal, so the Pats will likely attempt to restructure the contract. If the two sides can’t work something out, Wilfork might be a candidate to be released this winter.
Here’s more from around the AFC:
- Peyton Manning has yet to announce whether or not he’ll return to the Broncos for another season, but recent reports have suggested he’ll likely be back, and teammate Von Miller is confident the veteran signal-caller will stick around, as Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post details.
- Although wide receiver Duron Carter was the subject of plenty of fan interest and speculation as he visited potential suitors last month, the deal he signed with the Colts is a modest one. Per Joel Corry of CBSSports.com (via Twitter), $25K of Carter’s first-year salary is guaranteed, but he didn’t receive a signing bonus. Indianapolis’ other CFL signee, offensive lineman Ben Heenan, actually received more guaranteed money ($35K) than Carter, tweets Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun.
- The Colts announced several changes to their coaching staff today, hiring Jim Hostler as their wide receivers coach for 2015 and moving a handful of assistants into new roles. According to the club, former running backs coach David Walker will be the only assistant not returning.
- Addressing his team’s quarterback situation, Texans head coach Bill O’Brien suggested that “it will probably be a competition” for the starting job next season, writes Deepi Sidhu of HoustonTexans.com. While Ryan Fitzpatrick remains under contract with the club, Case Keenum and Ryan Mallett are both eligible for free agency, so Houston could be in the market for a QB next month, or during the draft.
West Notes: Kris Richard, D. Thomas, Chiefs
As we’ve heard previously, it sounds like Kris Richard is the favorite to become the Seahawks’ defensive coordinator, and Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, who reported last month that Richard was likely to become a DC in Seattle or Atlanta, agrees. Had Richard joined the Falcons, he would’ve followed ex-Seahawks DC Dan Quinn, whom Florio adds did in fact offer Richard a role on the Atlanta staff. But Richard, currently Seattle’s secondary coach, turned Quinn down, ostensibly because the Falcons have already hired a defensive coordinator in Richard Smith.
Here’s more from the West divisions:
- Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas is one of two elite pass-catching options who could be available on the free agent market, writes Jason Fitzgerald of the Sporting News. Along with Dez Bryant, Thomas should be able to top the average annual values of Mike Wallace ($12MM) and Percy Harvin‘s ($12.9MM) contracts, but it will be tough for the duo to match the ~$16MM AAV earned by Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Rather, Thomas and Bryant could aim to set a new second-tier of WR deals at around $14MM per year, per Fitzgerald.
- In a piece for Over the Cap, Fitzgerald examines the offseason outlook for the Chiefs, who are currently projected at roughly $1.7MM over the cap. While labeling free agent linebacker Justin Houston a “must-sign,” Fitzgerald opines that Dwayne Bowe and Tamba Hali are candidates for pay cuts, if not outright release.
- A new budget wrinkle proposed by President Obama could end up costing the Chargers as they attempt to build a new stadium, write Roger Showley and Lori Weisberg of U-T San Diego. Per the plan, clubs will no longer be able to use low-cost, tax-exempt municipal bonds to finance stadiums, meaning the Chargers could be forced to shoulder much of the financial burden themselves.
Poll: Best Head Coaching Hire Of 2015?
As our head coaching search tracker shows, all seven NFL teams that parted ways with their head coaches at season’s end have now hired replacements, with the Falcons formally announcing today that Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn would take over Mike Smith‘s old job. The Bills, Bears, Broncos, Jets, Raiders, and 49ers all made coaching changes as well.
While Quinn was one of the most highly-regarded assistants in the league, there are a number of other intriguing names among this year’s group of seven new coaches. A pair of head coaches – John Fox and Rex Ryan – who have had success in the past jumped from one team to another, while other top coordinators like Gary Kubiak and Todd Bowles also landed new jobs leading their own teams.
Time will tell which of these seven teams made the best move, but based on what we know right now, which hiring do you like the most?
What was the best head coaching hire of 2015?
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Chicago Bears: John Fox 34% (959)
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Atlanta Falcons: Dan Quinn 18% (507)
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Oakland Raiders: Jack Del Rio 12% (336)
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Buffalo Bills: Rex Ryan 12% (322)
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New York Jets: Todd Bowles 11% (310)
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Denver Broncos: Gary Kubiak 8% (227)
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San Francisco 49ers: Jim Tomsula 4% (122)
Total votes: 2,783
Falcons To Hire Raheem Morris, Richard Smith
FEBRUARY 2, 4:26pm: According to Albert Breer of the NFL Network (Twitter links), Smith will indeed have the defensive coordinator title in Atlanta. The Falcons also plan to hire a secondary coach separate of Morris and a linebackers coach separate of Smith, with the intention of building a big staff like Pete Carroll‘s in Seattle.
JANUARY 26, 1:18pm: While the team has yet to formally announce anything yet, Morris and Smith have both accepted positions with the Falcons, per reports from Mike Jones of the Washington Post (via Twitter) and Mike Klis of the Denver Post. Klis says Smith will have a “senior defensive position” in Atlanta, so it’s still not entirely clear whether he’ll have the DC title.
9:48am: The only team in the NFL without a head coach officially in place is expected to formally install Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn in that role a week from now, and is already moving toward putting together its staff. According to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (via Twitter), the Falcons intend to hire Washington secondary coach Raheem Morris and Broncos linebackers coach Richard Smith.
While multiple reports over the weekend indicated that Morris was expected to land with the Falcons, the team’s interest in Smith is new information, and is corroborated by Albert Breer of the NFL Network (all Twitter links). According to Breer, Smith will likely handle the run defense in Atlanta, while Morris will be in charge of the pass defense. Breer adds that Morris’ title is expected to be assistant head coach, which should mean that Smith will be named the club’s defensive coordinator.
With Quinn still focused on preparing Seattle’s defense for this Sunday’s game against the Patriots, neither Morris’ deal nor Smith’s has been finalized yet, but it appears they’ll both join a staff that’s expected to be a “big one in numbers,” per Breer, who notes that Quinn also figures to bring a Seahawks assistant or two with him to Atlanta. We heard on Friday that Seattle defensive backs coach Kris Richard was a good bet to land a defensive coordinator job with either the Falcons or Seahawks, so perhaps with Morris and Smith expected to lead Atlanta’s unit, Seattle will promote Richard to replace Quinn.
Until the Falcons officially name Quinn their new head coach, there will be several moving parts in play here, so we likely won’t get any resolution until next week. Still, it appears that the staff in Atlanta is starting to come together.
AFC West Notes: Manning, Raiders, Broncos
The Broncos have made changes at head coach and offensive coordinator since the end of their season, and their star quarterback has considered retirement, but Las Vegas still likes the team’s chances for 2015. Betting site Bovada.lv gives Denver 10/1 odds to win next year’s Super Bowl, with only the Seahawks, Patriots, and Packers ahead of the Broncos. On the other end of the spectrum, no club has longer odds at a championship than the Raiders, who are tied with the Jaguars at 200/1 odds.
Here’s the latest out of the AFC West:
- Gil Brandt of NFL.com is the latest to report that Peyton Manning is likely to return for another season in 2015, indicating in a tweet that he’s hearing the Broncos quarterback will “almost certainly” be back. Chris Mortensen of ESPN.com wrote yesterday that Manning could announce his return at some point this week, after Woody Paige of the Denver Post reported a couple weeks ago that the veteran signal-caller was leaning toward continuing his career.
- Providing an update on the Raiders‘ hunt for a defensive coordinator, Vic Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle says that it still doesn’t seem as if the team is any rush to make a decision. According to Tafur (all Twitter links), Seahawks linebackers coach Ken Norton Jr. remains a candidate, and Oakland could also dip into the college ranks — with National Signing Day coming up this week, a coach could wait until after that to take the Raiders job. As for Mike Smith, who has been considered Jack Del Rio‘s top choice all along, the former Falcons head coach would like to take a year off, and hasn’t changed his mind on that yet, per Tafur.
- The Broncos have hired Fred Pagac as their outside linebackers coach, a source tells Alex Marvez of Fox Sports (Twitter link). Pagac, a former defensive coordinator for the Vikings, worked with the Bills’ linebackers in 2014.
Sunday Roundup: Wilson, Manning, AFC North
Let’s take a look at some notes from around the league on this Super Bowl Sunday:
- According to NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport, negotiations on a long-term extension for Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson will begin “as soon as the Super Bowl ends.” As we have been hearing, Wilson is expected to become the highest-paid player in NFL history, with Aaron Rodgers‘ $22MM average annual salary serving as the starting point for negotiations with Wilson. Rapoport adds that everything Seattle has done this year, including its dealings with Percy Harvin, Cliff Avril, and K.J. Wright, was done with a Wilson deal in mind (Twitter link to NFL Media PR).
- Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning is expected to play in 2015, and ESPN’s Chris Mortensen writes that official confirmation could come from Manning this week.
- Falcons star receiver Julio Jones is under contract through 2015, but an extension for Jones will be put on hold until incoming head coach Dan Quinn has had time to fully assess the roster, according to Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com. Those sentiments come from team owner Arthur Blank, which suggests that Quinn will have a great deal of input into roster decisions and creates more questions about the role of GM Thomas Dimitroff.
- Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette examines the state of the Steelers‘ secondary, which looks to be a major area of concern heading into the offseason.
- Ravens running back Justin Forsett spoke with Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk about a number of topics, including his impending free agency. The tailback made it known once again that he’d like to stay in purple and black. “I would like to stay in Baltimore, but it is a business and I’m looking for a commitment. However that comes, I just want to be able to take care of my family,” the veteran said. Florio also asked Forsett about the possibility of following former Ravens offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak to Denver. Forsett was complimentary of Kubiak but downplayed the likelihood of a reunion, noting that the Broncos have multiple tailbacks under contract, including C.J. Anderson. However, as Florio rightly noted, none of the Denver backs amassed 1,266 yards on the ground in 2014 like Forsett did.
- There is a mechanism in the collective bargaining agreement by which the Browns could seek to recover a pro-rated portion of Gordon’s signing bonus because of games missed due to suspensions, as Tony Grossi of ESPNCleveland.com writes. That pro-rated portion for 2015 is just over $564K, however, so it’s not clear if Cleveland will pursue that process.
Zach Links contributed to this post