Details On Adrian Peterson’s Reworked Deal
THURSDAY, 8:19am: Aaron Wilson of the National Football Post has slightly different figures on Peterson’s new contract in his breakdown of the deal, writing that the base value is $42MM rather than $44MM. The discrepancy appears to be related to the amount of the 2016 roster bonus, which Wilson says is just $3MM instead of $5MM.
According to Wilson, the escalators in the pact are dependent on Peterson’s rushing yards and the Vikings’ playoff success.
TUESDAY, 3:41pm: After providing some initial figures on Adrian Peterson‘s restructured deal with the Vikings earlier today, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk now has the full details of Peterson’s contract, reporting the following information:
- In 2015, Peterson will earn a $2MM roster bonus next Tuesday (July 28), plus a fully guaranteed $11MM base salary.
- In 2016, Peterson has a $7.75MM base salary. $7MM is guaranteed for injury only for now, but that salary becomes fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2016 league year. Peterson would also earn a $5MM roster bonus on that day, if he remains under contract.
- In 2017, Peterson has a non-guaranteed $11.75MM base salary, plus a $6MM roster bonus due on the third day of the league year.
- In 2016 and 2017, Peterson can earn $250K workout bonuses, bringing the total three-year value of the contract to $44MM, slightly down from the $44.75MM base value of his old deal.
- There are also various escalators and de-escalators in 2015 and 2016 that could increase or reduce Peterson’s earning by about $2MM, per Mike Garafolo of FOX Sports (Twitter link).
In other words, the deal doesn’t necessarily ensure that Peterson will be in Minnesota beyond 2015, but it makes it likely, barring a significant dip in production this year. If the Vikings decide to move on from Peterson in 2016 or 2017, they’d have to make that decision very early in the league year, allowing the running back to hit free agency when plenty of teams would still have cap room available.
North Notes: Peterson, Bengals, Tucker
In the wake of Adrian Peterson‘s new deal with the Vikings yesterday, Charles Robinson of Yahoo! Sports took an in-depth look at Peterson’s offseason. According to Robinson, before the Vikings running back rejoined the team and got his new contract, he thought at length about a trade, retirement, and even the possibility of returning to his sprinting roots and making a run at the 2016 Olympics. That last idea may have been more of a dream than a plausible alternative, but it’s a moot point now, as Peterson ultimately decided to return to the Vikings for at least the 2015 season.
Of course, Vikings general manager Rick Spielman ensured that returning to Minnesota was the most viable solution for Peterson, with sources telling Robinson that Spielman “never wavered” on his stance to hang on to the former MVP. While Spielman’s position may have been a result of a lack of legit trade offers for Peterson, Robinson says that some inside the franchise believe that even a massive offer wouldn’t have made the GM change his mind.
Let’s check in on a few more items from out of the NFL’s two North divisions….
- Paul Dehner Jr. of The Cincinnati Enquirer (on Twitter) feels that the Bengals failed to address their tight end depth this offseason. While Tyler Kroft could be capable of producing in 2015, it’s hard to count on a rookie to contribute right out of the gate. The lack of depth for the Bengals puts added pressure of Tyler Eifert to give the Bengals a full, healthy season, something he hasn’t been able to do so far, Dehner tweets.
- Now that Stephen Gostkowski has received a long-term deal from the Patriots, it should just be a matter of time before the Ravens and Justin Tucker work out a similar deal, writes Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll happen soon though, as Hensley observes, noting that the franchise tag is a possibility for the Baltimore kicker in 2016, if he has yet to sign an extension by March.
- The Packers opened up their own books this week and that info revealed that NFL teams each received $226.4MM from the NFL as part of revenue sharing from the 2014 fiscal year, Darren Rovell of ESPN.com writes. The total surpassed $7.2 billion and comes mostly from the league’s television deals.
- Earlier today, we continued our Offseason in Review series with an examination of the Bears‘ moves over the last few months.
Zach Links contributed to this post.
NFC North Notes: Peterson, Vikings, Bears
The Vikings are ready to move forward with running back Adrian Peterson but Raddison is not going to partner up with the team again, according to Darren Rovell of ESPN.com. “Our suspended sponsorship has now expired and was not renewed,” company spokesman Ben Gardeen told Rovell. Radisson cancelled its sponsorship of the Vikings as the Peterson scandal made headlines nationally. Here’s more on the Vikings, AD, and other items out of the NFC North..
Vikings To Wait On Harrison Smith Extension
The Vikings won’t discuss an extension with Harrison Smith until after the season is through, Ben Goessling of ESPN.com (on Twitter) hears. The Vikings feel that there’s no rush to get a new pact done with Smith’s fifth-year option in tact.
The safety, who is under team control for just two more seasons, recently said that he’s not thinking about a contract extension.
“I’m really just focused on playing the best type of football I can. That stuff will work itself out,” Harrison said, according to Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. “I’m happy to be here and happy to be a part of the Vikings, but all I’m thinking about right now is playing well in 2015.”
Whether it’s with the Vikings or someone else, Smith is primed to cash in big if his career stays on its current course. Smith totaled a career-best five interceptions in 2014, giving him 10 in three seasons, and earned a spot on Pro Football Focus’ All-Pro team. Since entering the league as the 29th overall pick in 2012, Smith has evolved into one of the NFL’s most effective free safeties — in 2014, he had his best year yet, compiling 92 tackles, five interceptions, and three sacks for the Vikes.
Vikings, Adrian Peterson Restructure Contract
1:09pm: According to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, Peterson’s new deal includes $20MM in guaranteed money, though some of that money is guaranteed for injury only. While Florio doesn’t have the official details yet, he speculates that Peterson’s 2015 salary (approximately $13MM) is likely fully guaranteed, while a portion of his 2016 salary is guaranteed for injury, and will later become fully guaranteed.
12:07pm: As expected, the restructured deal will give Peterson additional guaranteed money in 2015 and 2016, tweets Charles Robinson of Yahoo! Sports. According to Robinson, Peterson’s 2017 salary will still be non-guaranteed, though if the new contract features a signing bonus, that would mean adding some dead money to the team’s books for ’17.
11:57am: The Vikings and running back Adrian Peterson have mutually agreed to restructure the final three years of Peterson’s contract, the team announced today in a press release. The terms of the agreement weren’t released by the club, but the move – which GM Rick Spielman calls “a win” for both the team and the player – likely ensures that Peterson will get some guaranteed money this year and next year.
“I appreciate the Vikings for working together on this restructured contract, which provides additional security for me but also allows opportunities for me to further prove my value to the team and within the NFL,” Peterson said in a statement. “It was important for me to continue my career in Minnesota, and I cannot wait to get on the field in front of Vikings fans again.”
The relationship between Peterson and the Vikings was strained earlier this offseason, with multiple reports suggesting that the running back and his agent Ben Dogra were angling for a trade after Peterson was reinstated from his suspension. However, Minnesota’s brass repeatedly stated that the team was not considering such a move, and after the draft came and went without a deal, Dogra and his client appeared to shift their focus to securing additional guaranteed money. In late May, Peterson ranted on Twitter about the lack of guaranteed contracts in the NFL.
Although Peterson had been scheduled to earn base salaries of $12.75MM, $14.75MM, and $16.75MM from 2015 to 2017, none of those figures were fully or even partially guaranteed. Additionally, the 30-year-old’s deal didn’t feature any dead money on the Vikings’ cap beyond this season, which would have made it easy for the team to move on from him if his production had fallen off.
Peterson, of course, missed nearly all of the 2014 season after being indicted in a child injury case. The Vikings running back spent most of the year on paid leave on the commissioner’s exempt list before being suspended for the final six games of the regular season once his legal case was resolved. Peterson reportedly felt that the team didn’t sufficiently support him during his absence, which led to the acrimonious relationship between the two sides this spring.
Ultimately, Peterson and the Vikings appeared to mend fences to some extent when the former MVP reported to OTAs without a new deal in place. Now that his contract has been reworked, I imagine Peterson will be even happier with his situation when he reports to training camp in the coming days.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
North Rumors: Packers, Pitta, Browns
Packers president Mark Murphy wasn’t thrilled to see his a handful of his players at the center of off-field incidents this offseason, with Datone Jones having been suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, while Letroy Guion and Andrew Quarless were each arrested and could be suspended as well. However, the team still doesn’t have any plans to release any of those players to send a message, as Murphy tells Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
“While we’re disappointed in all the situations, we have to let the process play out and see exactly what happens in each situation,” Murphy said.
As we wait to see how Quarless’ legal situation plays out, and whether or not Guion receives discipline from the NFL, here are a few more items from around the league’s two North divisions:
- Although Dennis Pitta has made “significant progress” in his recovery from a fractured and dislocated right hip, his NFL future is still up in the air. According to Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun, the Ravens tight end will likely begin the 2015 regular season on the physically unable to perform list, which would sideline him for at least the first six weeks. Pitta, who will earn a guaranteed $4MM base salary this year whether or not he plays, has yet to be medically cleared to practice.
- In his latest piece for ESPNCleveland.com, Tony Grossi highlights the departure of former Browns director of player engagement Jamil Northcutt, suggesting that the so-called mutual parting reflects a “seeping rift” between head coach Mike Pettine and GM Ray Farmer. Sources have told Grossi that Northcutt was a recipient of Farmer’s illegal in-game texts that earned the GM a four-game suspension, though another source says that’s not accurate.
- The Vikings don’t have interest in free agent guard Evan Mathis, according to Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News, who tweets that the team wants to see what it has in its young players. Minnesota could consider revisiting Mathis later if the club’s guard play is an issue.
- U.S. Magistrate Judge Janie Mayeron has ordered the NFL and the Players Association into settlement negotiations in their battle over Vikings running back Adrian Peterson‘s suspension, writes Dave Campbell of The Associated Press. The legal fight stems from the NFLPA claiming that the league “deliberately ignored” Judge David Doty’s ruling when Doty sided with the union in rejecting arbitrator Harold Henderson’s decision to uphold Peterson’s suspension.
Sunday Roundup: Gresham, Elam, Kromer
Let’s have a look at some links from around the league on this Sunday afternoon:
- We learned earlier today that Jermaine Gresham would be visiting the Cardinals this week, and Darren Urban of AZCardinals.com says it would be no surprise if Arizona landed the suddenly popular tight end, given the team’s need for a pass catcher at the position and GM Steve Keim‘s propensity to bring in a veteran free agent right as training camp opens.
- Matt Elam has been a big disappointment for the Ravens, who selected the former Florida safety with the No. 32 overall pick in the 2013 draft. Elam’s move to strong safety in 2014 should have been beneficial to him considering his skill set, but he led the team in missed tackles and struggled mightily in coverage. As Bo Smolka of CSNBaltimore.com writes, Elam is the Raven facing the most amount of pressure this season.
- Ben Goessling of ESPN.com says the Vikings‘ safety position next to Harrison Smith is up for grabs, as evidenced by GM Rick Spielman‘s unsolicited praise of second-year player Antone Exum after the draft.
- Some Lions fans are already looking ahead to the 2016 season, and as Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com writes in his latest mailbag, no matter how the team’s defensive tackles perform this year, that will be a position of need for Detroit given free agency and the age of Haloti Ngata.
- Bills offensive line coach Aaron Kromer is on indefinite paid leave, and he can only return to full status when his criminal case ends. As Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com writes, the first opportunity for Kromer to resolve his case is August 12, when he is expected to enter a plea. If he has a plea deal in place with prosecutors at that time, the case could be over on that day. However, he would still be subject to a fine, suspension, or both under the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy. Buffalo has not announced how it intends to replace Kromer once camp opens.
- Ryan O’Halloran of The Florida Times-Union examines the Jaguars‘ running back situation heading into training camp.
- Marc Sessler of NFL.com looks at the best remaining free agents on the defensive side of the ball, a list that includes veterans like Dwight Freeney looking for one last contract and busts like Da’Quan Bowers.
Offseason in Review: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings didn’t do a whole lot of business in free agency but they did upgrade through trades and the draft.
Notable signings:
- Shaun Hill, QB: Two years, $6.5MM. $3.2MM guaranteed.
- Tom Johnson, DT: Two years, $7MM. $2.25MM guaranteed.
- Terence Newman, CB: One year, $2.25MM. $750K guaranteed.
- Cullen Loeffler, LS: One year, $1.05MM. $300K guaranteed.
- Joe Berger, G: Two years, $2.155MM. $130K guaranteed.
- Matt Asiata, RB: One year, $800K. $100K guaranteed.
- Mike Harris, T: One year, $1.542MM. Signed original-round RFA tender.
- Casey Matthews, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
- DuJuan Harris, RB: One year, minimum salary.
- Mike Kafka, QB: One year, minimum salary.
After trading Matt Cassel – who we’ll talk about in a bit – the Vikings moved quickly to fill his spot on the depth chart by signing Shaun Hill. The seasoned veteran has played for four teams, including a stint with the Vikings from 2002-05. His latest stop was in St. Louis, where he played nine games (eight starts) last year and threw eight touchdowns against seven interceptions for an 83.9 passer rating.
Tom Johnson signed with the Vikings last offseason on a one-year contract, coming off of a three-year stint with the Saints. He impressed the coaching staff with a strong year in 2014 the led him to staying with the Vikings. He graded out positively as a rotation player on the defensive line according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), and should continue to help the team going forward. Minnesota didn’t have many impact free agents hitting the open market this year but Johnson was one of the guys they wanted to retain.
Terence Newman spent the last three seasons in Cincinnati, starting 41 regular season contests for the Bengals during that stretch. By signing with the Vikings, the 36-year-old has reunited with Mike Zimmer, who was the defensive coordinator in Cincinnati when Newman joined the Bengals. In 2014, Newman logged 75 tackles to go along with 15 passes defended and an interception, and graded as a middle-of-the-pack cornerback according to Pro Football Focus’ grades, placing 56th out of 108 qualified players at the position (subscription required).
Running back Matt Asiata was given an opportunity to shine in 2014 thanks to the absence of Adrian Peterson and, for a handful of games, he shined like a diamond. In March, Asiata was a restricted free agent and neither the running back nor the team knew what kind of role he would fill in 2015 thanks to Peterson’s status being up in the air and the emergence of freak athlete Jerick McKinnon. The two sides ultimately agreed to an incentive-laden deal that would protect Minnesota in the event of Peterson’s return and reward Asiata if he was starting and getting 20+ carries per game. Now that AD is back in action (more on that further down the page), it’s unlikely that Asiata will get to cash in on most of those incentives.
Notable losses:
- Jasper Brinkley, LB
- Vlad Ducasse, G
- Jerome Felton, FB: Opted out
- Greg Jennings, WR: Released
- Charlie Johnson, G: Released
- Christian Ponder, QB
- Corey Wootton, DE
Greg Jennings was asked to restructure his contract in order to remain with the team, but the two sides were unable to reach an agreement and that led to the wide receiver being released in mid-March. Jennings’ release saved the Vikings $5MM, but $6MM worth of dead money remains on the team’s 2015 cap. Jennings was catching passes from a combination of Matt Cassel, Christian Ponder, and even Josh Freeman during his first year with the Vikes, and never appeared to be an ideal fit. Even after Teddy Bridgewater emerged as the starter in 2014, Jennings’ production was unspectacular — he recorded just 59 receptions for 742 yards last season. That’s a far cry from his best work. During the three seasons in which he played all 16 games, from 2008 to 2010, Jennings posted three straight 1,100-yard seasons, averaging about 75 receptions, 1,223 yards, and eight touchdowns per year.
Ponder, 27, started 36 games during his four years with the Vikings, though he was essentially the team’s No. 3 signal-caller in 2014, behind Teddy Bridgewater and Cassel on the depth chart. The former No. 12 overall pick is now with the Raiders and will serve as the understudy to Derek Carr. All throughout 2014 it was widely speculated that Ponder’s time in Minnesota was drawing to a close.
As a youngster with the Jets, the rap on Vlad Ducasse was that he was an extremely green (no pun intended) lineman with immense strength. Throughout his first four seasons with the Jets and his 2014 campaign with the Vikings, Ducasse still looked rather raw and never fulfilled his second round potential. The UMass product started just five games during his time with New York. He topped that number in ’14 alone, starting six contests in Minnesota while playing at both guard positions. In total, Ducasse played in 13 games last season, totaling 417 snaps, but graded as the league’s No. 61 guard among 78 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). The Vikings, understandably, didn’t make a great effort to keep him.
Jasper Brinkley wanted to return to Minnesota and in March, he made that known to everyone.
“I would love to come back,’’ Brinkley said. “They gave me an opportunity and it still feels like home for me. I would love to definitely come back. Coach Zimmer is doing great things with the team, turning the culture around there and everything is on the up and up.’’
Ultimately, however, that was not to be, as Brinkley wound up signing a two-year pact with the Cowboys. The veteran started 11 games for Minnesota last season, compiling 54 tackles and one sack.
Veteran guard Charlie Johnson started 61 of 64 potential regular season games for the Vikings over the past four years, but he was not welcomed back for the 2015 season. Despite his extensive experience (115 career starts), the 31-year-old received a negative grade from Pro Football Focus (subscription required) in each of his four years in Minnesota, including a -12.1 mark in 2014.
Corey Wootton, 28, spent the first four seasons of his NFL career in Chicago before joining the Vikings for the 2014 season. While he has never been an every-down player, Wootton saw 22 starts and totaled 10 sacks during his final two seasons with the Bears. Last year in Minnesota, he came off the bench and recorded just a single sack.
Trades:
- Acquired a 2015 fifth-round pick and a 2016 seventh-round pick from the Bills in exchange for QB Matt Cassel and a 2015 sixth-round pick.
- Acquired WR Mike Wallace and a 2015 seventh-round pick from the Dolphins in exchange for a 2015 fifth-round pick.
- Acquired a 2015 third-round pick (No. 80) and a 2015 sixth-round pick (No. 193; DL B.J. Dubose) from the Chiefs in exchange for a 2015 third-round pick (No. 76; WR Chris Conley).
- Acquired a 2015 third-round pick (No. 88; DE Danielle Hunter) and a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 143; TE MyCole Pruitt) from the Lions in exchange for 2015 third-round pick (No. 80; CB Alex Carter).
- Acquired a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 146; WR Stefon Diggs) and a 2015 sixth-round pick (No. 185; T Tyrus Thompson) from the Falcons in exchange for a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 137; DT Grady Jarrett).
Exit Jennings, enter Mike Wallace. On March 13th, the Vikings acquired Wallace and a seventh-round pick from the Vikings for a fifth-round choice. Wallace, who spent the first four years of his career in Pittsburgh, signed a five-year, $60MM contract with the Dolphins prior to the 2013 season. He subsequently caught 140 passes for nearly 1,800 yards and 15 touchdowns during his two years in Miami. The Dolphins will replace him with fomer Saints wide receiver Kenny Stills, who hauled in 63 passes for over 900 yards as a second-year man in 2014. Wallace is coming off a campaign that saw him tie a personal best with 10 TDs, giving him 47 for his career, and the Vikings hope to see more of that in 2015.
The Vikings probably didn’t mind parting with a fifth-rounder since they added one from the Bills in the Matt Cassel trade. For the Vikings, Cassel was largely expendable since he was their backup to Teddy Bridgewater. The Bills, however, were faced with major question marks at the quarterback position and needed to make a move for a proven vet.
Extensions/Restructures:
- John Sullivan, C: Extended through 2017. Base salaries of $7MM, $5.5MM, $5.5MM. $1MM signing bonus.
Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked John Sullivan as one of the league’s better centers in 2014, with a +7.5 run-blocking grade buoying him to a 12th-place finish among 41 qualified players at the position. It was no surprise that the Vikings offered him another year on his deal.
Draft picks:
- 1-11: Trae Waynes, CB (Michigan State): Signed
- 2-45: Eric Kendricks, ILB (UCLA): Signed
- 3-88: Danielle Hunter, DE (LSU): Signed
- 4-110: T.J. Clemmings, T (Pittsburgh): Signed
- 5-143: MyCole Pruitt, TE (Southern Illinois): Signed
- 5-146: Stefon Diggs, WR (Maryland): Signed
- 6-185: Tyrus Thompson, T (Oklahoma): Signed
- 6-193: B.J. Dubose, DL (Louisville): Signed
- 7-228: Austin Shepherd, OL (Alabama): Signed
- 7-232: Edmond Robinson, OLB (Newberry): Signed
The Vikings were widely connected to Michigan State standout Trae Waynes in the weeks leading up to the draft and they did not make fools of the prognosticators. Waynes possesses top-end speed and many believe that he will be a natural fit for Zimmer’s system. Mike Mayock of NFL.com is one of the many pundits who feels that Waynes is an outstanding corner, particularly in press coverage. As a junior in 2014, Waynes three interceptions and eight pass breakups and finished sixth on the team with 46 tackles.
After taking Anthony Barr in 2014, the Vikings went back to the well when they took fellow UCLA linebacker Eric Kendricks. Kendricks boasts solid in-game speed and can also drop back for man-to-man coverage when needed. If Kendricks can add weight to his frame without losing speed, he could have a very bright NFL future ahead of him.
Other:
- Learned RB Adrian Peterson was reinstated by the NFL.
- Exercised 2016 fifth-year option for T Matt Kalil ($11.096MM).
- Exercised 2016 fifth-year option for S Harrison Smith ($5.728MM).
- Signed, and then released, S Taylor Mays. $10K in dead money will remain on 2015 salary cap.
- Claimed TE Brandon Bostick off waivers from the Packers.
- Signed nine players to reserve/futures contracts.
- Signed 10 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.
Of course, the biggest story for Minnesota didn’t have anything to do free agency, trades, or the draft. Instead, the Vikings waited and waited to find out if they’d have the services of embattled running back Adrian Peterson and in April, they got confirmation of his reinstatement. Just one problem: Peterson and his agent said that he would not suit up for the Vikings without a sign of a “commitment,” which everyone took to mean that AD wanted the remainder of his contract guaranteed. Ultimately, the Vikings did not blink in that stare-down and came out on top. The 30-year-old is under contract for three more years, and is scheduled to earn a $12.75MM base salary this season.
Since entering the league as the 29th overall pick in 2012, Harrison Smith has evolved into one of the NFL’s most effective free safeties — in 2014, he had his best year yet, compiling 92 tackles, five interceptions, and three sacks for the Vikes.
Matt Kalil, on the other hand, has struggled. Although he earned a Pro Bowl berth in his rookie season, and has started all 48 regular season games at left tackle for Minnesota since being selected fourth overall, the 25-year-old has regressed over the last couple years, according to Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required). PFF assigned Kalil a -21.1 grade as a pass blocker in 2014, which ranked 83rd out of 84 qualified tackles. Still, neither player’s salary is fully guaranteed until the first day of the 2016 league year, so as long as Kalil doesn’t sustain a significant injury, the Vikes will still be able to move on from him after this season if they so choose.
Top 10 cap hits for 2015:
- Adrian Peterson, RB: $15,400,000
- Mike Wallace, WR: $9,900,000
- Everson Griffen, DE: $8,200,000
- John Sullivan, C: $7,333,333
- Phil Loadholt, RT: $6,750,000
- Kyle Rudolph, TE: $6,440,625
- Matt Kalil, LT: $6,290,644
- Greg Jennings, WR: $6,000,000 (dead money)
- Brian Robison, DE: $5,650,000
- Chad Greenway, LB: $5,575,000
For several months there were rumblings that Peterson would force his way out of Minnesota – possibly into the welcoming arms of Jerry Jones. As we look ahead to training camp, No. 28 is still in purple and the Cowboys are, somewhat surprisingly, without a blockbuster running back. The Vikings held on to Peterson and with all of their other core players under contract through 2016, they didn’t lose much of anything this offseason. The Vikings have a real chance to take the NFC North, but much of their success will rest on the 30-year-old shoulders of Peterson, who may have to battle some rust before getting back to his old form.
Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post.
Community Tailgate: Who Will Win NFC North?
We’re still nearly two months away from the start of battles on the NFL gridiron, but there’s no offseason when it comes to debate amongst fans. Earlier this summer, we launched a new series here at PFR that will be known as the Community Tailgate. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. Every weekday, we’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.
Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.
As the 2015 season inches closer, we’re examining each NFL division, asking you which team you expect to finish atop the East, North, South, and West. Having already taken a closer look at the East divisions and the AFC North, we’re shifting our focus to the NFC North, where there’s one clear favorite up in Green Bay.
As long as Aaron Rodgers is at the helm, the Packers figure to be the perennial favorites in the division, especially if the club can continue locking up its key players to affordable deals, like it did this offseason with wide receiver Randall Cobb and offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga. Green Bay wasn’t active on the trade market and didn’t bring in any notable outside free agents, but the team still heads into the 2015 season as the frontrunner in the North.
Still, it won’t be a cakewalk for the Packers. The Lions nearly took the division crown in 2014, and despite the loss of Ndamukong Suh, Detroit should field a solid team again this year. The Bears were one of the NFL’s biggest disappointments last season, and will look to rebound under new head coach John Fox in 2015. It remains to be seen if Fox and new offensive coordinator Adam Gase can have anywhere near the success in Chicago with Jay Cutler that they did in Denver with Peyton Manning, but the duo looks like an upgrade over former head coach Marc Trestman and OC Aaron Kromer.
Finally, the Vikings are a popular early dark horse pick in the NFC, with Teddy Bridgewater heading into his second season, Adrian Peterson returning to the field, and young linebackers Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks looking to help lead an underrated defense. Minnesota isn’t viewed as a probable playoff team at this point, but there’s plenty to like about Mike Zimmer‘s squad.
What do you think? Do any of the Packers’ three division rivals have a shot to take the division from Green Bay in 2015? Who do you expect to win the NFC North? Let us know in the comment section below!
2015 Release Candidates: NFC North
Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.
Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.
We’ve already looked at the AFC East, NFC East, and AFC North, so let’s dive into the NFC North…
Chicago Bears:
- Jermon Bushrod, T: There’s no disputing that Bushrod an improvement over what the Bears were running out at left tackle in the years preceding his arrival in the Windy City — but that doesn’t mean that he’s been worth the five-year, nearly $36MM contract he signed with Chicago prior to the 2013 season. He’s actually been well below-average, according to Pro Football Focus’ metrics (subscription required), which ranked Bushrod as the 55th- and 57th-best left tackle in the league in 2013 and 2014, respectively. $1MM of his $5MM base salary became fully guaranteed earlier this year, however, so if the Bears were going to cut him they already would’ve (and it’s not as as though there a litany of left tackle options lying around the free agent market, anyway). But given that we’ve passed the June 1 cutoff, Chicago could save $4.85MM by releasing the 30-year-old Bushrod now; if he falters again in ’15, I suspect the club might part ways with him next season (when they could save $4.3MM before June 1 and $6.5MM after said date). Prediction: not released.
- Matt Slauson, G: The only other Bear who is even remotely a candidate for release is another offensive lineman, left guard Matt Slauson. The 29-year-old played in only five contests last year, missing a few weeks at the beginning of the season due to a high ankle sprain before being placed on injured reserve after tearing his pectoral in Week 8. Similar to their situation at left tacke, the Bears don’t have any viable replacements were they to release Slauson, as Michael Ola was thoroughly unimpressive while filling in on the interior last season, and free agent signee Vlad Ducasse has never lived up to his second-round billing. Additionally, Slauson was quite good in 2013 after coming over from the Jets, and just signed a four-year deal last January, so there’s no reason Chicago won’t give him a chance to get healthy and prove his worth. Prediction: not released.
Detroit Lions:
- Ryan Broyles, WR: Broyles was only nine months removed from a torn ACL when he entered the league in 2012, and he suffered another ACL injury (opposite knee) during his rookie season. Midway through his sophomore season in 2013, he was dealt another blow as he ruptured his Achilles. Broyles was largely healthy during the 2014 campaign, but still didn’t play much — he’s totaled just 21 games during his three-year career. Thought to be an explosive slot weapon coming out of Oklahoma, it seems like injuries have sapped much of Broyles’ athleticism, and though the Lions would save less than $900K by cutting him, he seems like a long shot to earn a spot on Detroit’s roster, let alone make his first significant NFL contribution at age 27. Prediction: waived.
- Jason Jones, DE: The 29-year-old Jones is entering the final season of a three-year deal, and is scheduled to count nearly $4MM against Detroit’s cap. His first season with the Lions — 2013 — was a wash, as he played in just three games before suffering a season-ending injury. Jones played in (and started) all 16 games last season, but wasn’t very effective, ranking as the just the 47th 4-3 defensive end among 59 qualifiers, according to PFF. Digging into the numbers a little deeper gives a better overall impression, as Jones ranked in the top half the league against the run and total pressures, but he finished only 36th in pass rush productivity. The Lions lost both Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley to free agency, so they need all the help they can get along the defensive line — it’s just not clear if Jones is all that helpful. In his early Lions 53-man roster projection, Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com noted that Detroit likes that fact that Jones can play both end and tackle, surmising that that versatility could keep him on the roster (for the record, Rothstein did list Jones among his projected final 53). For now, Jones is probably safe, but if a backup shows something in training camp, or a high-quality option can be found via the waiver wire, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Jones out of a job. Prediction: not released.
- Stephen Tulloch, LB: Tulloch’s season was (somewhat embarrassingly) cut short when he tore his ACL while celebrating a sack during a Week 3 contest against the Packers. There a quite a few factors working against Tulloch’s return to Detroit: his recovery from his injury; his $5.8MM cap figure, $4.3MM of of which would be wiped out if he’s released; and the presence of fourth-year pro Tahir Whitehead, who filled in admirably at middle linebacker in Whitehead’s absence. However, Tulloch ranked as the second-best inside linebacker in the league as recently as 2013 (per PFF), and Tulloch indicated through an Instagram post earlier this year that he’d be back in Detroit for 2015. That post doesn’t mean his return is official, obviously, but it might indicate that Lions management told him he’d be retained. Prediction: not released.
Green Bay Packers:
- Mike Neal, LB: As I wrote earlier this year in the Packers Offseason Outlook post, Neal’s production simply doesn’t match his production. Signed to a two-year, $8MM deal prior to last season, the 28-year-old Neal went on to rank as the worst 3-4 outside linebacker in the league according to PFF, finishing as the worst pass-rusher at his position by a considerable margin. In May, however, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com noted that Neal had been paid a roster bonus — which Over the Cap pegs at $1.3MM — so if Green Bay had wanted to release Neal, they obviously wouldn’t have shelled out that cash. Prediction: not released.
- Julius Peppers, LB: Peppers is only listed here due to the combination of his age (35) and the large bump in his cap figure from 2014 ($3.5MM) to 2015 ($12MM). Neither his ’15 nor ’16 base salaries are guaranteed, so the Packers could clear all but the remaining $5MM in bonus money left on his deal. But Peppers was simply too valuable during his first year in Green Bay to let go, although the Packers could approach him about a restructure. Prediction: not released.
- Nick Perry, LB: Only three other 2012 first-round picks have accumulated fewer snaps than Perry during their first three seasons in the NFL: Dre Kirkpatrick, who was buried on the Bengals’ CB depth chart until the end of last season; David Wilson, who is now retired due to injuries; and A.J. Jenkins, perhaps the most obvious first-round bust from that ’12 draft. Perry doesn’t have much special teams value, either, although his ST snap percentage has risen from less than 4% his rookie year to 16.5% in 2014. The Packers already declined Perry’s 2016 option, and even with Clay Matthews moving to the inside, there’s no reason to pay Perry his full 2015 cap charge when the club could save nearly $1.5MM by cutting him. Between fourth-rounder Jake Ryan, and the several UDFAs Green Bay signed after the draft, the team should be able to rely on players making minimum salary to fill in its linebacking unit. Prediction: waived.
- Andrew Quarless, TE: The Packers reportedly don’t plan to release Quarless in the wake of his recent arrest, and while that could obviously change, it’s much too soon (and the situation too bereft of facts) to render a prediction.
Minnesota Vikings:
- Casey Matthews, LB: Matthews doesn’t fit our criteria of offering cap savings of $1MM+, but I included him here both because he played a semi-prominent role in Philadelphia last year after DeMeco Ryans suffered an injury, and because some expected him to possibly start for the Vikings following the departure of Jasper Brinkley. Minnesota selected UCLA linebacker Eric Kendricks in the second round of this year’s draft, however, and that combined with the presence of Audie Cole means that Matthews wouldn’t have a shot at much playing time. Prediction: released.
- Brian Robison, DE: Robison has been the Vikings’ full-time starter at left end four four seasons, and 2014 was his first truly sub-par season, as he graded as the league’s No. 52 4-3 defensive end among 59 qualifiers per PFF. He’d been above average in the years prior, especially excelling at pass rushing. Robison is signed for three more years, and Minnesota would actually save a good deal of cap space ($4.65MM) by releasing him, but given that he was still productive just two seasons ago, I’d expect him to be retained, especially given that the Vikings don’t have much in the way of defensive end depth. Prediction: not released.
- LB Chad Greenway accepted a pay cut earlier this offseason or he would have likely been released.