Offseason Outlook: Miami Dolphins
Pending free agents:
- Louis Delmas, S
- Shamiel Gary, S (ERFA)
- Matt Hazel, WR (ERFA)
- Ulrick John, T (ERFA)
- Rishard Matthews, WR
- Jacques McClendon, G
- Lamar Miller, RB
- Matt Moore, QB
- Tyler Patmon, CB (ERFA)
- Spencer Paysinger, LB
- Derrick Shelby, DE
- Kelvin Sheppard, ILB
- Shelley Smith, G
- Jake Stoneburner, TE (ERFA)
- Michael Thomas, S (ERFA)
- Robert Thomas, DT (ERFA)
- Olivier Vernon, DE
- Brandon Williams, TE (RFA)
Top 15 cap hits for 2016:
- Ndamukong Suh, DT: $28,600,000
- Ryan Tannehill, QB: $11,640,000
- Branden Albert, T: $10,150,000
- Mike Pouncey, C: $10,025,000
- Cameron Wake, DE: $9,800,000
- Jordan Cameron, TE: $9,500,000
- Brent Grimes, CB: $9,500,000
- Reshad Jones, S: $8,202,942
- Quinton Coples, DE: $7,751,000
- Dion Jordan, DE: $6,202,377
- Greg Jennings, WR: $5,500,000
- Koa Misi, LB: $4,878,000
- Earl Mitchell, DT: $3,500,000
- Brice McCain, CB: $3,500,000
- Philip Wheeler, ILB: $2,800,000 (dead money)
Notable coaching/front office changes:
- General manager: Promoted college scouting director Chris Grier to replace Dennis Hickey.
- Head coach: Hired Bears OC Adam Gase to replace Dan Campbell, who left to become Saints’ assistant HC and TEs coach.
- Offensive coordinator: Hired Colts QBs coach Clyde Christensen to replace Zac Taylor.
- Offensive staff: Hired Bears offensive assistant Bo Hardegree as QBs coach.
- Defensive coordinator: Hired Bengals DBs coach Vance Joseph to replace Lou Anarumo, who returned to DBs coach role.
Draft:
- No. 8 overall pick
- Acquired seventh-round pick from Ravens in deal for CB Will Davis.
Other:
- Current projected cap room (via Over the Cap): $2.69MM over projected cap
- DE Dion Jordan remains suspended due to repeated substance-abuse violations.
- Signed German League MVP Tyler Davis.
Overview:
The Dolphins entered the 2015 season with playoff aspirations, but they ultimately went through two different head coaches, Joe Philbin and Dan Campbell, en route to another bitterly disappointing campaign. Miami finished last in the AFC East at 6-10, its worst record since 2011, and extended its playoff drought to seven years. The Dolphins have also failed to register a season above .500 during that span.
Naturally, then, major changes are needed, and those changes began last month with the ouster of general manager Dennis Hickey, the promotion of Chris Grier from director of college scouting to GM, and the hiring of Campbell’s replacement, first-time head coach Adam Gase. Grier and Gase will work in unison with the rest of the Dolphins’ hierarchy, led by executive vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum, as they try to restore glory to a franchise with just one playoff berth since 2002.
The organization is optimistic that the 37-year-old Gase, the NFL’s youngest head coach, is the right fit to get the most out of big-money quarterback Ryan Tannehill and his teammates. Prior to serving as the Bears’ offensive coordinator last season, Gase held the same position with the Broncos from 2013-14, during which time Peyton Manning piled up 94 touchdown passes. In Chicago, Gase helped maligned quarterback Jay Cutler to one of the most efficient seasons of his career — Cutler completed better than 64 percent of his passes and threw only 11 interceptions in 15 games.
In addition to having full control over the Dolphins’ 53-man roster, Gase will call their offensive plays, giving him an unusually high amount of responsibility for a neophyte head coach. He’ll have assistance on the offensive side from coordinator Clyde Christensen, formerly the quarterbacks coach in Indianapolis. Vance Joseph, who previously coached the Bengals’ defensive backs, will run a Dolphins defense that placed 25th overall in ’15-16 and looks poised to undergo a drastic overhaul in the approaching months.
Key Free Agents:
The Dolphins’ most noteworthy pending free agent is defensive end Olivier Vernon, who hasn’t missed a game since they spent a third-round pick on him in 2012. Vernon has paired durability with productivity, having racked up 29 sacks in four years (25.5 over the last three seasons). Vernon took down enemy QBs 7.5 times this past season and ranked third out of 91 qualifying edge defenders in overall performance by Pro Football Focus’ standards (subscription required), trailing only superstars Khalil Mack and Von Miller. When you consider all of the above, not to mention his age (26 in October), it’s clear Vernon is on the cusp of a significant payday. Vernon is aware of that, and he indicated in early January that the Dolphins won’t have an easy time keeping him.
“I only get one shot [at free agency], so I’m not [doing] a hometown discount,” he told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.
Given their lack of long-term certainty at defensive end (Cameron Wake is 34 and recovering from a torn Achilles, Dion Jordan‘s career has been a disaster on and off the field, and Derrick Shelby joins Vernon as a free agent-to-be), the Dolphins should do everything within reason to retain Vernon. It’s estimated the franchise tag for DEs in 2016 will be just under $15MM, which looks too rich for a team that has work to do to get under the cap. It’s possible the Dolphins will tag Vernon in order to keep him under their control as they try to work out a long-term accord, though. Otherwise, he’s an obvious risk to go to the open market and sign with the highest bidder. James Walker of ESPN.com wrote that a contract worth upward of $9MM annually for Vernon could take the Dolphins out of the race to sign him. Considering all that he brings to the table, that type of annual value seems fair for Vernon, who could end up with a deal in the neighborhood of the five-year, $47.25MM pact fellow 4-3 edge rusher Vinny Curry recently signed with the Eagles.
It’s conceivable Vernon’s fate will determine Shelby’s, as the Dolphins might have trouble re-signing both. Shelby, who has missed only one game in four years, played over 72% of Miami’s defensive snaps in 2015-16 and totaled a career-high 3.5 sacks. He also ranked as PFF’s 23rd-best edge defender. Shelby, 27 in March, is seemingly in line for a raise over his expiring $2.36MM salary. If the Dolphins work something out with Vernon, Shelby will probably get his pay increase someplace else. Should Vernon walk, perhaps the Dolphins will look to Shelby as a cheaper, albeit less effective, replacement. A defense that finished 25th in sacks can’t afford to lose both Vernon and Shelby, so the likelihood is that at least one of them will stay in the fold.
Aside from Vernon and Shelby, the Dolphins have other defenders primed for free agency in middle linebacker Kelvin Sheppard, who started 14 games last season, and safeties Michael Thomas and Louis Delmas.
Sheppard has been underwhelming throughout his five-year career, last season included, and doesn’t seem likely to return to Miami – not as a starter, anyway.
As an exclusive rights free agent, Thomas can’t negotiate with other teams. That means he should be a Dolphin again. Thomas started 12 games last season and earned a respectable assessment from PFF (41st-ranked safety out of 88). He’s also a standout on special teams.
Delmas has been solid when on the field during his career, but health has long been an issue. The 28-year-old sat out all of ’15-16 with a torn ACL (his second in a nine-month span) and has missed 33 of a possible 112 regular-season games since entering the league in 2009. If the Dolphins elect to bring him back, expect a short-term, inexpensive deal with possible incentives.
On the offensive side, the Dolphins’ control over running back Lamar Miller is set to end. Miller has put up a tremendous 
4.6 yards-per-carry average during his four-year career, but the Dolphins haven’t leaned on him enough. The 24-year-old accrued only the 18th-most carries in the league last season (194), though he made them count with 872 yards and eight touchdowns, also adding 47 receptions and two more scores. Miller closed the season poorly, however, rushing for 103 yards on 43 attempts over the final three weeks. He also had seven games with 10 carries or fewer, which is more an indictment of the prior coaching staff than him.
Gase puts much heavier emphasis on the run than previous Dolphins regimes, as Fox Sports’ Cameron DaSilva wrote last month. Gase’s offenses ranked in the league’s top 12 in rushing attempts the last three years (sixth in ’15), while the Dolphins were 29th, 22nd and 32nd, respectively. There’s a chance Gase believes in Miller and will make a push for the front office to re-sign him, but Miller’s future “depends on the economics,” a club official told Jackson last month. Miller is ostensibly a good bet to test the market, which would make him a good bet to find a contract richer than the one Miami will presumably offer.
Receiver Rishard Matthews joins Miller as a notable Dolphins weapon scheduled to explore free agency. Matthews’ departure seems likelier than Miller’s considering the Dolphins already have three capable wideouts in Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and 2015 first-rounder DeVante Parker. After catching a paltry four passes through Nov. 22, Parker broke out during the final six games of his rookie season and became an explosive part of Miami’s offense. That was especially evident in the 13-catch, 286-yard tear he went on over the season’s closing three weeks. Thanks to Parker’s emergence, the Dolphins are in fine shape at the position and will presumably let Matthews walk.
Matthews appeared in 11 games last season and caught 43 passes for 662 yards (a prolific 15.4 YPC) and four TDs. Before Matthews’ season ended in late November on account of broken ribs, Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald reported that the 26-year-old was in line for a deal worth $4MM to $6MM annually. The expectation is that Matthews will have to get that money from another team.
Possible Cap Casualties/Contract Issues:
The Dolphins are over the cap right now, but they’ll free up a sizable chunk of room by releasing a slew of players. The most obvious of the bunch is edge defender Quinton Coples, whom the Dolphins claimed off waivers from the Jets in November. Coples didn’t make a single tackle for the Dolphins and certainly won’t be on their books next season at the $7.75MM for which he’s presently slated.
Similarly, releasing 35-catch tight end Jordan Cameron would save Miami a large amount ($7.5MM). There’s also receiver Greg Jennings, who was a non-factor last season and whose release would make $4MM of space. Defensive tackle Earl Mitchell and cornerback Brice McCain are both pink slip possibilities, which would open up another $5MM ($2.5MM apiece).
The same is possible for linebacker Koa Misi, who has been with the Dolphins since they took him in the second round of the 2010 draft. Although he earned above-average ’15-16 marks from PFF (21st-ranked LB out of 97 qualifiers), Miami would save $4.3MM by designating Misi a post-June 1 cut ($3.72MM beforehand). That could seal his fate, according to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald.
In addition to getting rid of players, the Dolphins could look to create cap space by restructuring a handful of contracts. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, cornerback Brent Grimes, Wake, Cameron, and Jordan are candidates to have lesser cap hits next season. If none are open to that, all except Suh may end up on the chopping block.
In Suh’s case, it’s worth noting that Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap has warned against restructuring his contract because of the negative ramifications it would bring over the long haul. Nevertheless, in an effort to decrease Suh’s $28.6MM cap number this year, the Dolphins are considering altering the mammoth deal he signed last offseason, a move which wouldn’t require the former Lion’s approval.
Wake has 70 sacks in seven years with the Dolphins – seven of which came in only seven games last season. But it’s hard to imagine the team being content with an aging player coming off a serious injury taking up $9.8MM of its cap. Worst-case scenario: Miami can release Wake and recoup $8.4MM of breathing room. If that happens, it could help the Dolphins retain both Vernon and Shelby.
Grimes will eat into $9.5MM of the cap, $6.5MM of which can be saved by parting with him before June 1. By designating Grimes as a post-June 1 cut, the team would create $8MM in cap savings. However, given Grimes’ track record and their dearth of quality corners, bringing the nine-year veteran back at a lower amount would seem more beneficial for the Dolphins.
Finally, there’s Jordan, who had to sit out this past season after the league suspended him for violating its substance abuse policy. If the league reinstates Jordan in the spring, he’ll go back to factoring into the Dolphins’ cap. His hit for next season exceeds $6.2MM, an unpalatable total for a player who has amassed three sacks and 22 games missed because of suspensions since Miami drafted him third overall in 2013. While cutting Jordan outright would save the Dolphins upward of $3.21MM this year, they’re open to giving him another chance, according to Jackson.
Positions Of Need:
Even without taking the nebulous statuses of its all-important edge rushers into account, most of Miami’s offseason focus will lie with a defense that struggled against both the run and pass, and didn’t generate much pressure or force many turnovers last season.
With Sheppard’s contract up and Misi a release candidate, the team could search for two new starting linebackers this offseason to join the young and inexpensive Jelani Jenkins, per Salguero. The Dolphins might be better served continuing on with Misi instead of creating another hole, though. Keeping Misi would mean the Dolphins would only have to land one starting-caliber LB. That player could come via the draft, where UCLA’s Myles Jack, Alabama’s Reggie Ragland and Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith are all potential fits for the Dolphins at eighth overall.
Miami’s defensive backfield, which largely aided in allowing 31 touchdown passes and an opposing QB rating of over 97.0 in ’15-16, also requires fixing. Even if Grimes isn’t released, the unit is devoid of impact players outside of him and star strong safety Reshad Jones. With Joseph now in charge of the defense, Jackson thinks the Dolphins will consider cornerback Adam Jones and free safety Reggie Nelson. Both played under Joseph in Cincinnati and are presently without contracts.
Jackson also lists the Rams’ Trumaine Johnson and Janoris Jenkins, ex-Dolphin Sean Smith (Chiefs), Casey Hayward (Packers) and Prince Amukamara (Giants) as some established corners Miami could turn to in free agency. If the Dolphins want to go for a high-ceiling CB in the draft, a couple of in-state collegians – Jalen Ramsey (Florida State) and Vernon Hargreaves III (Florida) – are prospective top 10 picks. Another local product, the Miami Hurricanes’ Artie Burns, could be a second-round target, along with William Jackson (Houston) and Eli Apple (Ohio State).
As for safety, after intercepting a career-high eight passes and ranking as PFF’s 10th-best player at his position last season, Nelson will be on plenty of teams’ radars — not just the Dolphins’. The same is true regarding the Chargers’ Eric Weddle, a three-time Pro Bowler who “would welcome” an offer from Miami, Jackson wrote in January. The Browns’ Tashaun Gipson also looks like a player who could garner interest from the Dolphins. At 26, the one-time Pro Bowler would be more of a long-term solution than Nelson or Weddle.
Offensively, the Dolphins’ concerns begin along the line. With Branden Albert and Ja’Wuan James manning the tackle positions and Mike Pouncey at center, most of their starting five is a strength. Guards Dallas Thomas and Billy Turner are in over their heads, however. The Dolphins agree, per Jackson, and will search for more suitable starters.
If true, that should put the club in contention for in-their-prime free agents like the Ravens’ Kelechi Osemele, the 49ers’ Alex Boone and the Texans’ Brandon Brooks. Osemele would upgrade left guard substantially and bring experience at left tackle, where he’d be able to sub for Albert in the event of an injury (Albert hasn’t played a 16-game season since 2011). Boone has played both guard spots and has a connection to Miami’s new offensive line coach, Chris Foerster, who oversaw Boone and the rest of San Francisco’s O-line last season.
Other options include Denver’s Evan Mathis, whom the Dolphins courted last summer, and Atlanta’s Chris Chester. Both are among the adept veteran Band-Aid types who are likely to sign low-term, mid-tier-money contracts. They should be appealing to the Dolphins if they’re unable to reel in the younger choices, as should adding depth to the position later in the draft.
With Miller’s contract up, Jay Ajayi is the in-house starter at running back. After combining for 89 yards on 11 carries in his first two appearances, the fifth-round rookie fell to earth, accumulating 98 yards on 38 attempts the rest of the season. With that in mind, it would be overly optimistic of the Dolphins to hand the reins to Ajayi in the wake of Miller’s possible departure. They could instead pair with him with a free agent, perhaps the Bears’ Matt Forte – who totaled 1,200-plus yards and seven TDs under Gase last season – or Washington’s Alfred Morris. Gase also has familiarity with the Broncos’ Ronnie Hillman, who is set to hit the market off a career year and won’t turn 25 until September.
As is the case with running back, how Miami will handle tight end is unclear. Whether the team brings in a prominent outsider will depend on what happens with Cameron, who, as mentioned earlier, is unlikely to return at his current cap hit. If he agrees to come back at a lower cost, the Dolphins will get by with him and Dion Sims for at least another year. Otherwise, they might have to venture into free agency for another unremarkable veteran of Cameron’s ilk to helm the position until someone better comes along.
Overall Outlook:
The Dolphins will have plenty to do in the coming months as they try to ascend from the cellar of the AFC East, a division which they went 1-5 against last season, to playoff contention. Not only will Gase have to prove himself as the correct coaching hire, but the front office must make numerous shrewd roster moves to boost a club that had the league’s eighth-worst record and fifth-worst point differential during the 2015-16 campaign. Tannehill is the Dolphins’ most scrutinized player, but any possible progress he makes next season will probably go for naught if the front office doesn’t adequately address the team’s abundance of glaring issues through free agency and the draft.
Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rex Ryan On Draft, QBs, Defense, Rob Ryan
Fresh off an 8-8 season, his first with the Bills, head coach Rex Ryan spoke Friday with The Buffalo News’ Vic Carucci about the team’s plans going forward. Here are some of the highlights…
On possibly drafting a quarterback this year:
“Like anybody, we’re trying to add to our football team. If somebody can help us make us better, you don’t shut yourself off to any position. That’s something that you’ve got to be open for. It is a quarterback-driven league.”
On whether selecting an early round QB would set starter Tyrod Taylor back: 
“No, no way, that’s not going to distract him. He’s worried about, he’s focused on winning and improving every day. And I think that’s who Tyrod is.”
On maligned backup QB EJ Manuel:
“I’m not done with EJ Manuel, either (as a backup to Tyrod Taylor). I think EJ’s got the talent, the size and all that stuff. Sometimes, guys just take a little bit longer to develop, so we’ll see how that goes.”
On Buffalo’s defense, which fell from fourth in the NFL under Jim Schwartz in 2014 to 19th with Ryan and Dennis Thurman at the helm in 2015:
“I’m excited to get this group together. I think you’re going to (have) the natural maturation going into your second year in a system. I think it’s going to help us. I just think guys are ready to get back and ready to say, ‘You know what? We’re going to find a way to get it done, regardless.’ How that’s going to look, we’ll see. But I’m definitely more confident. I know I feel better about the guys, how people adjust, flexibility of players, different things.”
On the hiring of his brother Rob Ryan as the assistant head coach/defense:
“My brother’s a great football coach. He’s inherited a ton of terrible defenses, some of the worst in the history of the game, and he’s flipped them. Was he handcuffed a certain time last year (as defensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints)? You’re dang right he was. But you know what? I don’t think it got better when he left.”
“I think (Rob) helps us because this guys’s a great football coach. He’s been a coordinator for 12 years. He’s got two Super Bowl rings as an assistant coach, as a position coach. I think that’s only a plus and not a negative. And people who look at it as a negative have no idea what they’re talking about.”
Rex Ryan also added that the Bills could focus more on offense than defense in the draft, citing QB and wide receiver as potential need areas, according to Carucci. Taylor, 26, held his own this past season, his first as a starter, but the Bills don’t appear sold on him as a franchise-caliber signal caller. As for wideout, other than Sammy Watkins, they’re lacking game-breaking talent.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Extra Points: Manziel, Schwartz, London
Long thought to be Johnny Manziel‘s career lifeline, the Cowboys may not have been interested in the embattled quarterback at all, Clarence Hill Jr. of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.
Team sources told Hill the Browns quarterback who could be facing legal action for his potential role in a domestic assault wasn’t on the Cowboys’ radar even before the ex-Heisman Trophy winner’s latest off-the-field occurrence.
Hill writes the same personnel who advised Jerry Jones to pass on the polarizing Texas A&M quarterback in favor of Zack Martin are still in place. The Cowboys remain very much in search of a quality backup quarterback, but Manziel doesn’t fit that profile and appears to be a non-starter in Dallas.
The Browns are expected to cut Manziel before the new league year begins.
Here’s the latest from around the league.
- The NFL’s tri-annual showcases in London continue to generate buzz on a franchise spawning in the United Kingdom’s biggest city, and Roger Goodell isn’t doing anything to squelch that notion. “We are considering playing more games in the U.K. It’s a balancing act with our schedule. … As far as a franchise, let’s continue to grow. Let’s continue to see that excitement and enthusiasm, passion and support continue to develop. If it does, I think that’s a realistic possibility,” Goodell told media, via Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk. The obvious logistical issues remain, as London is an eight hours ahead of the Pacific Time Zone, and such an expansion would be the most daring step among the four major American sports leagues.
- Goodell stands in favor of the league pursuing a policy that will automatically eject players after they receive their second personal foul in a game, Mark Maske of the Washington Post reports. “I believe that that’s consistent with what we believe are safety issues,” the commissioner told media at his yearly address, “but I also believe it’s consistent with what we believe are the standards of sportsmanship that we’ve emphasized. We should take that out of the hands of the officials.” Any rule change must be approved by at least 24 of the 32 owners. John Mara wants such a rule to be clear as opposed to a gray area regarding low-end personal fouls. “To me, it’d have to be severe enough personal fouls as opposed to something like an incidental facemask,” Mara told Maske. Following the actions of Odell Beckham Jr. and Vontaze Burfict within a span of three weeks, the league would appear to have momentum to pass legislation of this sort.
- Geoff Schwartz would be hesitant if the Giants were to pursue his free agent brother Mitchell Schwartz, Paul Schwartz of the New York Post reports. The Giants are in need of a right tackle after turning to journeyman Marshall Newhouse last season, and the 26-year-old Mitchell Schwartz is arguably the best available. The Browns’ right-edge presence graded as Pro Football Focus’ sixth-best tackle this season. “I don’t know if we would get along too well playing next to each other for a while, just because of our personalities,” Geoff Schwartz said. “Maybe after a week or so, we’d kind of get tired of each other. He’s a great player, don’t get me wrong. He’s the best right tackle this year, I hope he goes somewhere and gets every cent he can get. I just don’t know if the Giants are in position to pay a right tackle eight-and-a-half-, nine-million dollars.” Geoff Schwartz stands to make $3.9MM in base salary if the Giants bring the injury-prone guard/tackle back for a third season. He does not, however, want his brother to re-sign with the rebuilding Browns. “Obviously, you want to get your money, but you want to win. You don’t want to be on a losing team. He’s had four offensive coordinators in four years. He’s had three or four GMs, three head coaches. I mean, you can’t win that way,” Schwartz said.
- Seahawks fullback Derrick Coleman did not activate the brakes when his Dodge Ram collided with a Honda Civic in October, injuring the other driver, according to the Seattle Times’ Lynn Thompson. Coleman, who played in a career-most 14 games for the Seahawks this season, was going 60 mph in 35-mph zone at the time of the crash, one that left the driver of the Honda Civic with a concussion and a broken collarbone. Coleman suffered a concussion in the accident while losing his hearing aid. Coleman told police he’d smoked a form of synthetic marijuana, not illegal in Washington, an hour before the collision.
NFC North Notes: Megatron, Bears, Packers
Ron Rivera‘s path to the Panthers emerged when he and Lovie Smith ended a contentious relationship in three seasons working together in Chicago. The former Bears coach didn’t renew the former Bears defensive coordinator’s contract after the duo helped the Bears to Super Bowl XLI during the 2006 season, largely due to philosophical and personal differences, Austin Murphy of SI.com reports.
Smith preferred then-Buccaneers assistant head coach Rod Marinelli for the job upon being hired as Bears coach in 2004, but, per Murphy, Rivera was mandated by then-Chicago GM Jerry Angelo.
The former Bears player under blitz-happy Buddy Ryan, Rivera wanted a blitz-heavy scheme, whereas Smith was a Tampa-2 proponent. Murphy also asserts Rivera’s eight interviews for head-coaching positions while employed as Bears DC were potentially seen as disloyal by Smith.
When Rivera became the Chargers’ linebackers coach in 2007 after Smith denied him a fourth season running the Bears’ defense, he and Smith were on bad terms, a Bears source told Murphy. The 54-year-old Rivera served three years as San Diego’s DC before accepting Carolina’s top coaching job.
Here are some more items from the NFC North on the eve of Super Bowl 50.
- The Bears should let Matt Forte walk while re-signing Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller, Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap notes in his analysis of the Bears’ cap situation. Also advising the Bears to orchestrate an extension with Kyle Long after they pick up the tackle’s fifth-year option, Fitzgerald recommends the Bears cut Martellus Bennett and gauge Lamarr Houston‘s trade value. Bennett would save Chicago $5.2MM, and Houston, entering his seventh season, will net the Bears $4MM in cap savings if released. Brought in to play in a 4-3 scheme, Houston graded as Pro Football Focus’ No. 62-ranked edge defender as an outside linebacker in Vic Fangio‘s 3-4.
- Calvin Johnson‘s impromptu retirement could be a negotiating ploy a la Adrian Peterson‘s trade request last year, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk writes. The Lions will need to know Johnson’s official intentions on his future by March 9, when his $16MM base salary and $24MM cap number are configured into Detroit’s 2016 salary cap. Florio speculates Johnson could have threatened to retire to force the Lions to appreciate his presence rather than insist he renegotiate that massive cap figure. Peterson ended up receiving additional guaranteed money, instead of the Vikings potentially attempting at reducing his salary, Florio offers.
- Randall Cobb‘s punctured lung sustained against the Cardinals could have been an effect of him being mic’d up by NFL Films, the slot receiver and the Packers medical staff theorize (via Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). “I punctured a lung. I didn’t break a rib and I didn’t fracture a rib. It’s really abnormal for that to happen,” Cobb told radio host Bill Michaels in San Francisco. “But I was mic’d up for the game. I landed flush on my back. The battery pack was on my shoulder pads and I landed flush on my back and we think that possibly could be it but there’s no way of proving it.” Cobb, who left the divisional playoff game after injuring himself on a spectacular catch that ended up being nullified by penalty, will enter the season season of the four-year deal he signed last March.
- Casey Hayward hired the same agent, David Mulugheta, used by fellow Packers DBs Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Quinten Rollins, Rand Getlin of ESPN.com reports (Twitter links). Hayward is one of Green Bay’s top free agents.
Chargers, City Officials To Discuss Stadium
Already, Dean Spanos and San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer have engaged in phone conversations regarding the Chargers’ future in the city and jointly met with San Diego county supervisor Ron Roberts. But team and city officials will meet this week to discuss the stadium project that would keep the Chargers in San Diego long-term, Eric Williams of ESPN.com reports.
The sides will discuss stadium proposals at Mission Valley, Calif., where Qualcomm Stadium is located, and a downtown initiative, with Wil
liams pointing out the parties need to agree on a site within the next two months to put the issue on the November ballot for a crucial vote on public funding.
San Diego’s proposal for a $1.1 billion Mission Valley stadium, made public midway through last season while the Chargers were fixated on Los Angeles, includes $200MM from the NFL and $350MM from the city, among other expenses. Under Faulconer’s proposal, a public
-money spending cap would be in place and force the Chargers to cover any cost overruns the project encounters.
Conversely, the Chargers would prefer a downtown site alongside the Padres’ Petco Park. JMI Reality, per Williams, laid out plans for a $1.4 billion retractable-roof stadium for the Chargers.
An obstacle obviously comes from the vote requiring public funds to be used.
The team hopes to use the citizens initiative effort, Williams writes, to bypass environmental concerns centering around the Mission Valley site and streamline this effort. This process would skirt the potential legal issues by being
exempt from the California Environmental Quality Act. Signatures of 67,000 registered voters, however, would be required by April 1 to ignite this process.
According to Williams, the Chargers assembled the same legal, land-use and financial team the organization deployed to craft a fully entitled site in Carson, Calif., last year.
Either way, the Chargers having a future in San Diego beyond 2016 will require significant development in the near future. Already agreeing to share Stan Kroenke‘s Inglewood site as leverage in these talks, the Chargers’ effort in San Diego will help determine how the Raiders proceed.
Photo courtesy USA Today Sports Images
Extra Points: Gordon, Megatron, Ravens
During his Super Bowl press conference, Roger Goodell acknowledged that he had received Josh Gordon‘s application for reinstatement. The commissioner now has 60 days to determine whether the Browns wideout should be reinstated. Before he makes a decision, Goodell wants to see whether the embattled receiver has changed his ways.
“The process is we will go back and look at how he’s conducted himself over the last several months, what he’s done to make sure it’s consistent with the terms of his suspension, and at some stage we’ll have a report on that, and I will engage with our people to understand where he is, where he’s been, but most importantly, where he’s going,” Goodell said (via Tony Grossi ESPN.com).
“When these things happen, it’s about trying to avoid them in the future. Our No. 1 issue here is to prevent these things from happening.
“I’m hopeful that Josh understands that he’s going to have to conduct himself differently going forward to be a member of the NFL and to be representing the Cleveland Browns — or any team in the NFL. So, our job is to try to get people to understand that, try to make sure that they live by the policies that we have, and ensure that this is what all of us want and also what the fans want. Our fans want everybody playing by the same rules.”
The Browns wideout was suspended indefinitely last February, and the 24-year-old didn’t play a single game this past season.According to the report, Gordon’s party “is confident he has met terms of his indefinite suspension to merit reinstatement.”
Let’s check out some more notes from around the NFL…
- Jets wideout Brandon Marshall respects Calvin Johnson‘s decision to potentially walk away from the game. “Awesome. I think that he’s strong,” Marshall told Nicki Jhabvala of The Denver Post. “I think it takes a lot of strength and courage to walk away from the game. I think all of us face that time when we question ourselves or question our passion and love for the game, and if we want to move forward. I think most of us stick around a year or two or three too long.”
- The Ravens have traditionally avoided big-name free agents, but ESPN.com’s Jamison Hensley believes if the team were to spend this offseason, they’d pursue a wide receiver. According to the writer, potential options include DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz and Roddy White.
- Ravens kicker Justin Tucker is the “overwhelming favorite” to receive the team’s franchise tag, writes Hensley.
NFC Notes: Watson, Lions, White
Impending free agent Ben Watson had an excellent season with the Saints. Despite being 35-years-old, the tight end finished with a career-high 74 catches for 825 yards and six touchdowns. Predictably, the veteran would like to stick around New Orleans.
“I had a good conversation with Sean (Payton) and Mickey (Loomis), and I love the Saints organization,” Watson told Joel A. Erickson of The Advocate. “I’d love to be playing there. If not there, we’ll see where else. I think I’ll know more in about a month or so.”
Of course, Watson understands that it’s no guarantee that he’ll be back in black and gold.
“It is exciting to have the possibility to return there, but as an NFL veteran, you know how it works,” Watson said.
Let’s check out some more notes from the NFC…
- Possible Lions cap casualties include linebacker Stephen Tulloch, running back Joique Bell, and tight end Brandon Pettigrew, writes ESPN.com’s Michael Rothstein.
- When it comes to Calvin Johnson, Rothstein believes it’d be best for the Lions if the wideout stuck around for one more season. That way, the team could draft a young receiver who could learn from the superstar. However, if Johnson does decide to hang it up, the writer believes the team could pursue Marvin Jones or Jermaine Kearse.
- While the ultimate decision will be up to coach Dan Quinn, Falcons owner Arthur Blank is hopeful that receiver Roddy White will finish his career in Atlanta. “I have nothing but respect for Roddy and I love Roddy,” Blank told ESPN.com’s Vaughn McClure. “I love what he’s done for our franchise. And I love the type of leadership that he has. And I love his role as a father…When it comes to where Roddy is in the future, that’s where the owner doesn’t get involved. That’s a decision that will be made by the coach, the coaching staff and personnel. When they’re ready to do it, they’ll do it. They’re in the process of going through the roster evaluation now. They’ve had some discussions. They’ll have more discussions.”
AFC Mailbags: Jaguars, Patriots, Jets
It’s Saturday morning, and that means ESPN.com’s NFL writers are opening their mailbags and answering questions from the readers. Let’s take a look at some interesting notes from the AFC…
- The Jaguars have two main needs to address this offseason, according to Mike DiRocco: pass rush and free safety. As a result, the writer believes the team should pursue Dolphins defensive end Olivier Vernon, Chiefs linebacker Tamba Hali, or Giants defensive end Robert Ayers. Among defensive backs, DiRocco points to Chargers safety Eric Weddle or Chiefs safety Eric Berry.
- A reunion between the Patriots and running back Stevan Ridley is unlikely, but Mike Reiss doesn’t completely count it out. After all, safety Patrick Chung returned after leaving New England, and since the Patriots need a running back, Ridley could be a logical choice.
- Of the seven offensive linemen to start a game for the Jets last season, Rich Cimini believes Willie Colon will be the only player to not return. As a result, the writer can’t envision the organization drafting an offensive lineman with their first-round pick or pursuing a big name in free agency.
Chiefs Working On Extension For Eric Berry
SATURDAY, 8:55am: Team chairman Clark Hunt acknowledged Berry’s importance to the organization when talking with Terez A. Paylor of The Kansas City Star.
“Certainly, Eric is somebody that’s very important to the franchise,” Hunt said. “Coach (Andy) Reid and his staff think highly of him. They appreciate the leader that he’s become, and obviously personally, he had the amazing year overcoming cancer. We’ll do everything we can to try to bring him back.”
Berry, meanwhile, isn’t allowing the extension talks to be a distraction.
“Right now, it’s in my agent’s hands,” Berry said, when asked about his contract situation. “With everything that went on this past year, I just want to kick it for a little bit, get the season off me, get all that off me, and then I think we’ll go from there.”
WEDNESDAY, 2:56pm: Having already extended a key offensive player this offseason, locking up Travis Kelce to a new, long-term contract, the Chiefs are now focusing on one of their top defenders, says Ian Rapoport of NFL.com. According to Rapoport (via Twitter), Kansas City is “ramping up talks” on a potential extension for safety Eric Berry.
[RELATED: Chiefs sign Travis Kelce to extension]
Berry, who earned Pro Bowl nods in three of his first four NFL seasons, was diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma in 2014, raising some doubts about his future in the league. However, Berry was declared cancer-free in 2015 and enjoyed one of his best seasons this past year for the Chiefs.
Appearing in all 16 games for Kansas City in 2015, Berry logged 61 tackles to go along with a pair of interceptions and 10 passes defended. Pro Football Focus ranked the Tennessee product sixth among 88 qualified safeties. The standout season earned Berry his fourth Pro Bowl berth, along with a spot on the NFL’s All-Pro first team.
Unlike Kelce, who still had a year left on his rookie contract, Berry is eligible for free agency this winter, so if the Chiefs hope to lock him up before he can hit the open market, the club will have to do so within the next five weeks.
In the latest edition of Pro Football Rumors’ free agent power rankings, Dallas Robinson placed Berry 10th overall, down from eighth in our previous installment. Dallas noted that safeties typically don’t land the sort of guaranteed money that quarterbacks, left tackles, and pass rushers do, but added that Berry should still do very well for himself this offseason, whether he re-signs with Kansas City or joins another team.
In the fall, former agent Joel Corry estimated that the franchise tag for safeties in 2016 will be around $10.7MM, so that’s an option for the Chiefs if they can’t reach a longer-team deal with Berry within the next few weeks. Although that’s a significant price tag, it’s not a huge increase over the 27-year-old’s 2016 cap hit of $8.36MM, so Kansas City could probably make it work. Tagging Berry would also give the team a few extra months to work out a multiyear contract for him.
If Berry does ultimately sign a long-term deal, there’s a good chance it will make him one of the top two or three highest-paid safeties in the NFL. As Over the Cap’s data shows, the former fifth overall pick would have to secure an average annual salary of at least $9MM to crack the top three, while surpassing $10MM per year would make him the league’s highest-paid safety.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Browns
Pending free agents:
- Johnson Bademosi, S
- Travis Benjamin, WR
- Tank Carder, ILB
- Travis Coons, K (ERFA)
- Pat Devlin, QB (ERFA)
- Tashaun Gipson, S
- Darius Jennings, WR (ERFA)
- Kaleb Johnson, G (ERFA)
- Don Jones, S (RFA)
- Jamie Meder, DE (ERFA)
- Darrian Miller, G (ERFA)
- Raheem Mostert, RB (ERFA)
- Austin Pasztor, T (RFA)
- Terrelle Pryor, WR (RFA)
- Craig Robertson, LB
- Mitchell Schwartz, T
- Scott Solomon, OLB (RFA)
Top 15 cap hits for 2016:
- Joe Haden, CB: $13,400,000
- Joe Thomas, T: $9,500,000
- Donte Whitner, S: $8,450,000
- Dwayne Bowe, WR: $8,000,000
- Alex Mack, C: $8,000,000
- Paul Kruger, OLB: $7,700,000
- Desmond Bryant, DE: $7,000,000
- Tramon Williams, CB: $6,981,250
- Karlos Dansby, ILB: $6,500,000
- Barkevious Mingo, OLB: $5,201,319
- Josh McCown, QB: $5,041,666
- Brian Hartline, WR: $3,750,000
- Randy Starks, DT: $3,625,000
- Justin Gilbert, CB: $3,500,046
- John Greco, G: $2,925,000
Notable coaching/front office changes:
- Front office: Fired general manager Ray Farmer, VP of player personnel Morocco Brown, and executive chief of staff Bill Kuharich.
- Front office: Promoted Sashi Brown to VP of football operations, hired MLB executive Paul DePodesta as chief strategy officer, and hired Colts pro scouting coordinator Andrew Berry as VP of player personnel.
- Head coach: Hired Bengals OC Hue Jackson to replace Mike Pettine.
- Offensive staff: Will go without OC after firing John DeFilippo. Hired Al Saunders as senior offensive assistant, Pep Hamilton as assistant head coach/offense, and Kirby Wilson as running game coordinator.
- Defensive coordinator: Hired Titans DC Ray Horton to replace Jim O’Neil.
Draft:
- No. 2 overall pick
- No traded picks
Other:
- Current projected cap room (via Over the Cap): $33.22MM
- Must exercise or decline fifth-year option for 2017 for OLB Barkevious Mingo.
- WR Josh Gordon has filed for reinstatement from his suspension.
- C Alex Mack can opt out of his contract to become a free agent.
Overview:
In 2014, the Browns finished out the year with a 7-9 mark and at least showed glimpses of competitiveness. In 2015, there wasn’t much to write home about after a 3-13 campaign. Naysayers around the league whispered about Johnny Manziel‘s off-the-field issues, and the party-loving quarterback proved them all right. Of course, the Browns’ issues ran much deeper than the quarterback position, but their poor play under center has been an issue for decades now and it’s unlikely that they will get back on track until they finally find a solution there.
Throughout 2014, Browns fans wondered whether it would be Brian Hoyer or Manziel starting at QB for Cleveland in 2015. As it turns out, it was neither. Instead, that mantle was given to offseason acquisition Josh McCown. The 6’4″, 213-pounder spent the 2014 campaign in Tampa Bay and performed poorly in 11 games for a Buccaneers team that finished with the NFL’s worst record. Thanks to a string of injuries, things didn’t go much better for him in 2015. McCown suffered a concussion in Week 1, a shoulder injury in Week 8, a rib injury in Week 9, and a season-ending collarbone injury in Week 12.
As for Johnny Football? The injuries opened up the door for him to show his skills and, for a brief moment, he did. He wound up squandering that opportunity at mid-season, however, after he was caught on video partying and lied to the team about it. There were numerous off-the-field transgressions for Manziel in 2015 and the most recent run-in will probably bring an end to his time in Cleveland.
“We’ve been clear about expectations for our players on and off the field,” executive VP of football operations Sashi Brown said in early February. “Johnny’s continual involvement in incidents that run counter to those expectations undermines the hard work of his teammates and the reputation of our organization. His status with our team will be addressed when permitted by league rules. We will have no further comment at this time.”
Assuming they don’t designate him as a post-June 1 cut, the Browns will take on a ’16 cap hit of about $4.33MM if they release Manziel on or after March 9. Of course, the team could remove that entire figure from its cap if the 23-year-old is claimed on waivers, but that seems extremely unlikely. A first-round pick in 2014, Manziel started eight games during his two years in Cleveland, completing 57% of his passes and throwing seven touchdowns to seven interceptions, for a QB rating of 74.4. While his on-field performance was unspectacular, it was off-field behavior that will cost him his roster spot.
What follows is a detailed look at what lies ahead for the Browns — not just at quarterback, but everywhere else on the field.
Key Free Agents:
Wide receiver Travis Benjamin broke out in 2015, hauling in 68 catches (125 targets) for 966 yards and five touchdowns. Of course, this wasn’t the easiest year for the Browns, but Benjamin has been generally positive when asked about making a future in Cleveland and in December, he said he was 75-80% on the way to reaching a new deal with the Browns.
“I’m not looking for (free agency),” he said in October. “Me and the Browns have a great relationship. I love them, they love me and I love the community so if we get a deal done that’ll be great for me…I love it here, my wife loves it here and we’re just happy to be here.”
Safety Tashaun Gipson was the league’s final restricted free agent on the market last offseason and only re-signed with the Browns in June of 2015. The team assigned Gipson a second-round tender worth $2.356MM earlier in the offseason and, despite his protests, he ultimately signed it in order to join his team in training camp. While Gipson wasn’t happy with the RFA tender he received from the Browns, it’s not a huge surprise that he eventually relented and signed it, given his lack of leverage.
This past season, Gipson played in (and started) 13 games, racking up 60 tackles, two pass deflections, and two interceptions. The former UDFA could, theoretically, sign a deal with the Browns before the start of free agency, but he has stated in the past that he wants to test the open market to assess his value.
It has been speculated for some time that Browns right tackle Mitchell Schwartz could be in for a big payday this offseason. For his part, Schwartz recently said he’d like to re-sign with Cleveland. The 26-year-old is a four-year starter at the right tackle position and Pro Football Focus is wild about him, having named him to its “All Third-Year Team” for the 2015 season. The Browns have the money to retain him, but it’s not clear if they’re willing to make him the kind of offer that will convince him to bypass the open market, or if his stated preference to stay in Cleveland is genuine.
Possible Cap Casualties:
As noted above, Dwayne Bowe currently stands as the Browns’ fourth-highest cap hit with an $8MM figure in 2016. And, of course, you’ve seen the math on how much money Bowe has been paid per reception and the end result is not pretty. Bowe’s contract is not just the worst in Cleveland – it’s arguably one of the worst in the entire NFL. Cleveland gave Bowe $9MM in guaranteed money in March of 2015. In September, it was already rumored that coaches were displeased with his work ethic and performance. Bowe, 32 in September, is not wanted back in Cleveland and it would not be a surprise to see him let go.
Outside of Bowe, there are a handful of notable players that would make at least some sense as possible cap casualties. Wide receiver Brian Hartline might not have a major role going forward, but he’s also not too expensive with a cap number of $3.75MM in 2016. He also produced with 46 catches (77 targets) for 523 yards and two touchdowns across 12 games.
Barkevious Mingo would be a possible release candidate if his salary weren’t fully guaranteed. Paul Kruger and Desmond Bryant carry high cap numbers ($7.7MM and $7MM, respectively), but they gave Cleveland some decent production last year. Donte Whitner also gets honorable mention in this section, though he doesn’t seem like a strong candidate given his production.
The Browns also shouldn’t be too strapped for space as they will be carrying over ~$20MM in unused cap room from last year.
Positions Of Need:
Obviously, the quarterback position is the No. 1 priority with a bullet for the Browns. Armed with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, the Browns could try their luck again with a rookie QB. The latest word is that Cleveland prefers Carson Wentz to Jared Goff, but they’ll be evaluating all quarterback options over the next few months. If the Browns look to the free agent market for a quarterback, they’re not likely to find any real slam dunk options. Someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick, who seems likely to re-sign with the Jets anyway, would serve only as a transitional option, and that’s something Cleveland already has with McCown.
The Browns will continue to discuss a new deal with Benjamin and the outcome of those talks will largely dictate what they do at wide receiver. If the 26-year-old cannot be retained, the team would have even more room to go out and try to hit a home run at the position. If the Browns are thinking big, they could potentially make a move for Bears free agent wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. The soon-to-be 26-year-old is primed to cash in soon, be it with the Bears, Browns, or someone else, having accumulated 228 receptions, 3,000+ yards, and 21 touchdowns over the last three years (41 games). Of course, the Browns already have one of the game’s most talented wide receivers in-house: Josh Gordon (more on him later).
Cleveland threw some money at its defense last offseason, but it sure didn’t show. The Browns’ pass defense finished outside of the lower third in the league with 250.8 yards surrendered per game, but that’s partly because teams decided to just run them over instead — opponents averaged 128.4 yards per game against Cleveland, putting the club in a virtual tie for the NFL’s second-worst run defense.
Specifically, the Browns badly need an edge rusher to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Von Miller stands as the most desired free agent player at the outside linebacker position, but few expect him to actually reach the open market since the Broncos reserve the right to use the franchise tag on him. However, Seahawks free agent Bruce Irvin could be available for the Browns, if they’re interested, and he’d cost less than Miller on a long-term deal too. How much exactly? That’s hard to say, but it has been suggested that Vinny Curry‘s recent five-year, $47.25MM ($23MM guaranteed) deal with the Eagles could be a reasonable starting point for talks. Meanwhile, Joey Bosa could be a consideration for them with their top pick.
Inside linebacker will have to be addressed, particularly with Karlos Dansby getting up there in age. A strong second cornerback opposite Joe Haden would also give the Browns’ secondary a much-needed boost — 2014 first-rounder Justin Gilbert hasn’t been that player so far.
Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:
The Browns have some serious decisions to make when it comes to wide receiver Josh Gordon. Gordon was suspended for the 2015 season but just a few weeks ago, he applied for reinstatement. Since his entry into the league in 2012, Gordon’s NFL career has been tumultuous to say the least. He missed the first two games of the 2013 season following a drug suspension, but then went on to lead the NFL in receiving yards, finishing with 87 receptions for 1,646 yards and nine touchdowns.
Hopes were high for the 2014 season, but Gordon’s off-the-field issues resurfaced, as he was first arrested for DUI, and then suspended for one year after again violating the league’s substance-abuse policy. He was eventually reinstated after only 10 games as part of the NFL and the players’ union agreeing to a new drug policy, which reduced the sentences for some players-in-limbo. The Browns subsequently suspended Gordon for the final contest of the season after he reportedly violated team rules, and then a failed alcohol test resulted in the wideout’s ban of at least a year last February.
Will the Browns hang on to Gordon? The old regime was vocal about wanting to build a future with the 6’4″ receiver. However, that will now be up to a group that includes head coach Hue Jackson, lead decision maker Sashi Brown, and (for some reason) former MLB executive Paul DePodesta.
The Browns’ offensive line could look drastically different in 2016 depending on how things play out. While Cleveland’s starting right tackle is a potential free agent, left tackle Joe Thomas said he was considering asking about a way out of the organization before the team hired its new coach and top decision maker. After Hue Jackson and Sashi Brown were chosen, Thomas indicated that he was unlikely to ask for a trade. Still, given that a potential deal that would have sent Thomas to the Broncos for a bevy of draft picks reportedly fell through at last year’s trade deadline, it was fair to wonder if the club might attempt to deal Thomas again.
At last check, Browns center Alex Mack said that he has yet to make a final decision on whether he’ll opt out of his contract this winter. The offensive lineman says he’ll start seriously considering his options after the Super Bowl, with a decision to follow within the next month or so. Ultimately, it stands to reason that Mack will opt out. Even if he wants to remain in Cleveland, he can easily best his current pact which calls for $8MM annual salaries for the next three seasons, with only his 2016 salary guaranteed.
Overall Outlook:
The Browns have already done some major remodeling by showing coach Mike Pettine and GM Ray Farmer the door. Now, they’ll have to do even more work to the roster if they hope to compete in 2016. Odds are ’16 will be yet another rebuilding year for the Browns, but they can set themselves up nicely for the future if they make good use of their high draft picks and significant cap space.
Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.