PFR Originals: 1/31/16 – 2/7/16
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- We began our Offseason Outlook series, taking a team-by-team look at what lies ahead for each club during the next few months:
- Pro Football Rumors recently launched an Instagram account: @ProFootballRumors. Each day, we’ll be sharing conversation-inspiring images about the hottest topics in football. From there, we invite you to give us a like, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section, and even share the link with a friend. Give us a follow @ProFootballRumors!
- In our latest Community Tailgate post, Luke Adams asked: Where will the Raiders ultimately end up?
- Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
Week In Review: 1/31/16 – 2/7/16
Headlines:
- Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning has reportedly told friends he’ll retire.
- Calvin Johnson has similarly told friends (and Lions head coach Jim Caldwell) that he plans to retire.
- After much speculation, Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch intends to retire.
- The Eagles signed edge rusher Vinny Curry to a five-year, $47MM extension.
- The Raiders expect to remain in Oakland for the 2016 season.
Franchise Tags:
- Broncos – Von Miller, LB (likely)
- Eagles – Sam Bradford, QB (conflicting reports)
- Panthers – Josh Norman, CB (likely)
Free Agent Rumors:
- Bears – TE Zach Miller seeking $5MM per year (link)
- Bengals – WR Marvin Jones plans to test free agency (link)
- Broncos – LB Danny Trevathan expects interest from Bears (link)
- Chiefs – club working on extension for S Eric Berry (link)
- Raiders – LT Donald Penn wants to talk contract (link)
Signed:
- Jets – Dri Archer, RB (link)
- Saints – Vick Ballard, RB (link)
- Washington – Ziggy Hood, DL (link)
Retired:
- Justin Tuck, DE (link)
Off-Field:
- Johnny Manziel:
- RB Montee Ball arrested (link)
Panthers Likely To Franchise Josh Norman
The Panthers will likely place the franchise tag on cornerback Josh Norman in the event that the two sides can’t reach a long-term deal, sources tell Adam Schefter of ESPN.com. Clubs can begin using tags on February 18, and have until March 1 to assign their franchise tender.
Contract discussions between Norman and Carolina haven’t been abundant, or at least haven’t been made public. The closest the club has come to acknowledging the dilemma of retaining Norman was general manager Dave Gettleman last month telling David Newton of ESPN.com that it will be a “headache” attempting to retain not only Norman, but the rest of the Carolina free agent crop.
[RELATED: Broncos intend to placed franchise tag on LB Von Miller]
The franchise tag figure for cornerbacks will likely come in at $14-15MM, so Norman will earn a hefty payday even if he and the club can’t come to a long-term agreement. But it’s worth wondering what such an extension would look like. I looked at the issue back in November, arguing that Norman should be in line for a deal in the Richard Sherman/Patrick Peterson neighborhood: $14MM annually, and approaching $20MM in guarantees.
According the Over the Cap’s data, the Panthers currently have roughly $19.6MM in projected cap space heading into the 2016 offseason, so while fitting in a one-year franchise-tag salary of $14-15MM is possible, the club would be financially strapped, especially when including 2016 draft class cap charges. But Carolina could release defensive ends Charles Johnson and Jared Allen in the coming month, moves that would save the club nearly $20MM in cap space, making a franchise tender for Norman more palatable.
The 28-year-old Norman has certainly put himself in a great position heading into unrestricted free agency, as 2015 was easily the best season of his four-year career. He was named first team All Pro and selected for his first Pro Bowl, and posted solid raw statistics, producing career highs in both interceptions (four) and passes defensed (18). Norman was well-regarded by advanced metrics as well, finishing as the league’s 12th-best corner by Pro Football Focus’ grades.
[RELATED: Latest on Eagles’ franchise-tag decision on QB Sam Bradford]
For his part, Norman is ready to ink that contract that he feels he’s earned. “Because from day one, I’ve always been cashing in on myself,” Norman told Schefter this week. “If you don’t cash in on yourself, who is going to do it for you? If you don’t think you’re doing your job, who’s going to do it for you?”
I ranked Norman, set to play in his first Super Bowl later today, fifth in our most recent 2016 free agent power rankings.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
East Notes: Vernon, L. Miller, Patriots
Earlier today, we heard a report that the Eagles are not planning to use the franchise tag on Sam Bradford, while the team may have some interest in reacquiring Nick Foles. While some cold water was quickly thrown on that rumor, it will remain a situation worth monitoring. The following links from around the league’s east divisions are also of note:
- Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that the Dolphins place more importance on retaining DE Olivier Vernon than RB Lamar Miller, as they believe they have an in-house option to replace Miller (Jay Ajayi), while the same cannot be said for Vernon. Jackson notes, however, that Miami will attempt to re-sign both, and the franchise tag remains an option for Vernon.
- Although the Patriots rarely make a big splash in free agency, Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com says the team will at least explore the possibility of acquiring Matt Forte, who would not have to be the workhorse he has been in Chicago to have a significant impact on New England’s offense.
- In the same piece, Reiss examines what a potential extension would look like for Patriots DE Chandler Jones, and Reiss looks to Vinny Curry‘s recent five-year $47.25MM deal with the Eagles as a floor, as Jones is the superior player. It has been speculated for some time now that New England will not retain Jones beyond 2016.
- Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com believes the Jets will try to re-sign Damon Harrison before he hits the open market, but if they fail to do so, Cimini believes Harrison will sign elsewhere (Twitter link).
- John Keim of ESPN.com writes that Washington‘s biggest needs are on the defensive side of the ball, and to that end he believes the team should focus on adding depth along the defensive line and at the cornerback position while nabbing a safety in the early rounds of the draft.
- One player who would certainly fit Washington‘s needs would be Denver DE Malik Jackson, according to Rich Tandler of CSNWashington.com. But as Tandler observes, Jackson will be in high demand and could end up out of Washington’s price range as a result.
Eagles Unlikely To Franchise Sam Bradford, Interested In Nick Foles?
12:44pm: It appears that Bowen’s skepticism may have been well-founded. McLane says the Eagles have not yet made a decision on Bradford, and Foles’ cap number ($8.75MM) and dead money hit ($8MM) would make a trade highly unlikely (Twitter links). In a full-length piece, Bowen says the same thing, writing that there is “no chance” that Philadelphia will reacquire Foles.
12:00pm: The Eagles are not expected to use the franchise tag on Sam Bradford if the two sides cannot reach an agreement on a new contract, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter (via Twitter). However, Schefter reports that Philadelphia does have “some” interest in re-signing Bradford.
Bradford, who came to the Eagles in the trade that sent Nick Foles to the Rams, struggled out of the gate in his first season in Philly, though he did play much better in the second half of the year as he grew more comfortable in Chip Kelly‘s offense. Kelly, in his capacity as head coach/personnel executive, was responsible for bringing Bradford to the Eagles, but Kelly was fired before the end of the season and the team hired Doug Pederson to take his place on the sidelines while displaced vice president of football operations Howie Roseman regained his authority over personnel matters. As such, two of the team’s biggest decision-makers have no real commitment to Bradford.
On the other hand, Pederson was on Philadelphia’s staff when the team drafted Foles in the third round of the 2012 season, and he served as Foles’ quarterbacks coach that year. In a second tweet, Schefter reports that Pederson is interested in bringing Foles back to the Eagles. Foles, for his part, was an abject failure in his first season with the Rams, completing just 56.4% of his passes and throwing seven touchdowns against ten interceptions in 11 games. He did, however, sign a two-year extension with the club prior to the beginning of the 2015 campaign, so he remains under contract through the 2017 season.
Neither Foles nor Bradford represents anything close to a perfect solution, but Bradford was clearly the superior player in 2015, and the fact that he managed to stay largely healthy and continued to improve down the stretch indicates that the team would be better off retaining him rather than attempting to reacquire Foles. That is especially true if Bradford can be had for a one-year deal, as former NFL agent Joel Corry suggested at the end of January. Even if the Eagles’ decision not to tag Bradford is understandable–after all, a $20MM commitment is a steep price for an imperfect player with a considerable injury history, and Bradford could always hold out–any attempts to bring back Foles at the expense of Bradford would be considerably less justifiable.
Nonetheless, it is worth noting that Roseman is known for his intentional misdirection, as Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets, and now that he is back in charge of personnel matters, it is probably wise to take reports like this one with more than one grain of salt. Indeed, Les Bowen of the Philadelphia Daily News has made his skepticism on the matter quite plain in a series of tweets.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Broncos To Use Franchise Tag On Von Miller
The Broncos plan to use the franchise tag on linebacker Von Miller and will then look to work out a long-term deal with him, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (via Twitter). This news does not come as much of a surprise, as Jason Cole of Bleacher Report passed along a similar report at the end of last month, but as Miller is the best player eligible for unrestricted free agency this offseason, any reports regarding his potential fate remain highly relevant.
Miller has posted double-digit sack totals in four of his first five seasons in the league. In 2013, he was suspended six games for attempting to cheat a drug test, and he tore his ACL later in the season, limiting his on-field action to just nine games and his sack total to just five. But as Rapoport observes (via Twitter), Miller has matured a great deal since he decided to hire a life coach–a decision that implies a certain degree of maturity in and of itself–and at this point, it appears as though the star pass rusher’s off-field troubles are a thing of the past.
Denver, of course, might also consider using the franchise tag on Brock Osweiler, who did enough in his first shot as a starter this season to suggest that he could be the team’s long-term answer at the quarterback position. Apparently, however, the Broncos are more confident they can work out a contract with Osweiler prior to the new league year than Miller, who would have a case to become the league’s highest-paid defensive player if he were to reach the open market. In 2015, Miller graded out as the second-best edge rusher in the league out of 110 eligible players, per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required). And, unlike many elite pass rushers, Miller is not a liability in coverage, and he is terrific against the run, which only enhances his already considerable value.
The projected 2016 franchise tag value for linebackers is just north of $14MM. In negotiating a long-term deal with Denver, Miller would likely look at Justin Houston‘s recent six-year, $101MM deal with Kansas City–which included $52.5MM in guarantees–as a benchmark. Marcell Dareus, in his recent extension with the Bills, received $60MM in guarantees, a record for a defensive player that provides a reasonable target for Miller. As former NFL agent Joel Corry wrote back in November, Miller’s next contract will probably have an average annual value in the neighborhood of $18MM. Assuming the Broncos do, in fact, tag Miller, they will have until July 15 to work out a long-term deal.
2015 NFL Award Winners
The NFL announced this season’s award winners at last night’s “NFL Honors” event. The complete list can be found here, but the highlights are as follows:
AP Most Valuable Player:
Cam Newton, QB, Panthers
AP Offensive Player of the Year:
Newton
AP Defensive Player of the Year:
J.J. Watt, DE, Texans
Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Year:
Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers
AP Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Todd Gurley, RB, Rams
AP Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Marcus Peters, CB, Chiefs
AP Coach of the Year:
Ron Rivera, Panthers
AP Comeback Player of the Year:
Eric Berry, S, Chiefs
Walter Payton Man of the Year:
Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers
2016 NFL Hall of Fame Class:
Brett Favre, QB; Kevin Greene, LB; Marvin Harrison, WR; Orlando Pace, OL; Tony Dungy, coach; Ken Stabler, QB; Dick Stanfel, OL; Eddie DeBartolo, owner
Extra Points: Dolphins, Manziel, 49ers, Lions
The Dolphins have two particularly noteworthy free agents-to-be in defensive end Olivier Vernon and running back Lamar Miller, but they don’t view them as equal priorities. Instead, the Dolphins believe retaining Vernon is more important than re-signing Miller, writes Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. That doesn’t necessarily mean Miller is done in Miami, though, as Jackson adds that the club will try to keep both players. However, if the Dolphins are unable to afford Miller, they’re confident they have a capable in-house replacement in Jay Ajayi. On the other hand, the Dolphins don’t think they’d fare as well in finding someone to take over for Vernon, reports Jackson, who notes that they could slap the $15MM franchise tag on him if they’re unable to reach a long-term deal.
Click here to read more about Vernon, Miller and other issues facing the Dolphins in PFR’s offseason preview of the team.
As the clock ticks closer to Super Bowl 50, here’s more from around the NFL:
- The league isn’t turning its back on Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel amid his off-field issues, according to its executive vice president of football operations, Troy Vincent. “We wish to give Johnny as much support as he is willing to receive. We can’t make anyone do anything,” Vincent said Saturday, per The Associated Press. “I’ve seen his father make a statement, reach out to the family to make sure the family knows the National Football League, the Cleveland Browns, the players association — everyone’s here to support you, but you have to embrace it.”
- 49ers receiver Torrey Smith believes quarterback Blaine Gabbert is right for new head coach Chip Kelly‘s offense and could give Colin Kaepernick legitimate competition for the starting job (if Kaepernick isn’t traded or cut in the coming months, of course). “I think people assume that because of this offense that Kap’s the best fit. But Blaine can do everything. He may not be as fast, but Blaine housed a 40-yard run last year, he can run, man. He can get rid of the ball quick. I think it’s going to be an interesting battle,” Smith told KNBR (link via CSNBayArea.com).
- The Lions may soon be in need of receiving help with Calvin Johnson leaning toward retirement, and it so happens that pending free agent wideout Anquan Boldin spoke glowingly of head coach Jim Caldwell on Saturday (Twitter link via Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press). Although he has been one of the league’s most productive receivers throughout the last decade-plus, the 35-year-old Boldin is nowhere near Johnson’s caliber at this stage. While Boldin hauled in a respectable 69 catches with San Francisco in 2015-16, it was for the second-lowest yardage total of his career (789).
Raiders’ Mark Davis On Las Vegas, Santa Clara
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said Friday that the league wants to keep the Raiders in Oakland, but that isn’t stopping owner Mark Davis from exploring other options. The Raiders, of course, are in a standoff with Oakland regarding a new stadium, and Davis is looking around at other cities. He met late last month with Nevada businessman Sheldon Adelson about the possibility of moving the Raiders to Las Vegas. Adelson’s development company, Las Vegas Sands, subsequently tweeted that he and Davis “had a great visit.”
On Friday, Davis spoke highly of Vegas as an NFL-caliber city, according to Janie McCauley of The Associated Press. 
“It’s absolutely an NFL city,” he said. “It’s an international city, it’s a global city. The Raiders are a global brand, so it’s got potential.”
On the other hand, Davis shot down the notion of relocating the Raiders to Santa Clara, where they’d share Levi’s Stadium with the 49ers.
“Again, I just don’t think it fits the Raiders,” he said. “The Raiders on game day, if you’re around our stadium, if you see our parking lot before the game, the tailgating, it’s probably the largest non-denominational gathering on a Sunday morning that you’ll ever find, and I’m not going to give that up. That’s just part of the Raider game day experience. I just can’t give that up.”
Before his death in 2011, former Raiders owner Al Davis – Mark’s father – participated in discussions about joining the 49ers in Levi’s Stadium, which was built with the capability of housing two NFL teams, Santa Clara Mayor Jamie Matthews told USA Today last week. Mark Davis doesn’t seem willing to mimic his father in entertaining Levi’s Stadium as an option, so – barring a drastic change of heart – his club won’t be headed there.
For now, the Raiders’ lease at O.co Coliseum in Oakland expires on Feb. 17 and they’re in talks to extend it for another year, McCauley writes.
In response to Goodell’s stated desire for the Raiders to stay in Oakland, Davis said, “I believe he’s going to do whatever he can. I’d love to. We’re the Oakland Raiders right now, that’s where it’s at.”
While it appears Davis’ franchise will remain in Oakland this year, Los Angeles and Las Vegas are both potential landing spots beyond that. Whether the Raiders end up in LA will depend largely on what happens with the Chargers, who will spend the next year trying to work out a stadium deal with San Diego. If that proves successful, it could open the door for the Raiders to follow in the Rams’ footsteps and return to LA, where the Raiders played from 1982-1994. Should the Bolts’ bid to stay in San Diego fail, they’ll be the ones teaming up the Rams and it’s unclear what that would mean for the Raiders.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On Titans’ Ownership
Commissioner Roger Goodell wants each of the NFL’s 32 franchises to have a singular owner representing it, but the Titans haven’t been in compliance since the death of franchise founder Bud Adams in 2013. They’re in the process of fixing that, however, writes John Glennon of The Tennessean. Amy Adams Strunk currently controls 33 percent of the Titans (the other two-thirds belong to fellow heirs of Bud Adams) and should soon be in position to represent the club, according to a statement issued Friday by team president and CEO Steve Underwood.
“We are confident that the next time we meet with the Commissioner, he will be satisfied that Amy Adams Strunk has exactly what he said she needs — local operating control and full authority to represent the Titans in league decisions.”
Underwood’s statement came in response to comments Goodell made Friday during his state of the league address.
“We have ownership policies, the ownership policies are lengthy, but essentially they require a single owner, to represent the club locally, but also at the league level,” he said. “We work on the basis of 32 individual owners, each having a vote. When league matters come up, whatever they may be, we work on a vote of 24 of the 32. It’s a very important principle to owners and their partners.”
Goodell added that the league has “to continue to work with the Tennessee ownership group to see how that’s going to conform with our policies. We’ll be meeting with our finance committee in the next few weeks. That’s a subject we’ll be discussing.”