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2016 Cap Outlook: New York Jets

December 25th, 2015 at 12:06pm CST by Luke Adams

Throughout the 2015 NFL season, Pro Football Rumors has been looking ahead to the 2016 offseason, gauging the salary cap situation for a number of teams with significant cap charges for next season. The cap for 2016 hasn’t been set yet, but we can still assess the salary commitments made by a club and determine whether or not that club will be in good financial shape going forward.

In addition to evaluating each team’s overall cap situation, we’ll focus in on a few key players who may be candidates to be extended, restructured, or released by their current teams. These lists aren’t comprehensive, and the names in each category are fluid, depending how the season finishes and how a team’s offseason plays out,. For now though, these are some players to watch.

Using data from Over The Cap, we’re making our way through NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. Today’s team is the New York Jets, who currently have the ninth-highest total for their ’16 cap.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

  1. Darrelle Revis, CB: $17,000,000
  2. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, LT: $14,107,000
  3. Brandon Marshall, WR: $9,500,000
  4. Nick Mangold, C: $8,600,000
  5. Antonio Cromartie, CB: $8,000,000
  6. Eric Decker, WR: $8,000,000
  7. Buster Skrine, CB: $7,750,000
  8. David Harris, ILB: $7,500,000
  9. Marcus Gilchrist, S: $5,626,000
  10. James Carpenter, G: $5,575,000
    Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $135,814,960

Most teams have at least one cornerback among their top 10 cap hits, and many teams have two, but there aren’t many that have three. The Jets’ three cornerbacks here, who each fall within the team’s top seven 2016 cap hits, were all free agent signings in 2015.

Although new GM Mike Maccagnan‘s moves were generally lauded at the time, you could make the case that the club’s spending spree on secondary pieces was just as questionable an approach as John Idzik opting for the opposite extreme a year earlier, when he didn’t spend on cornerback help at all. As such, it’s not a surprise that Revis, Cromartie, and Skrine all show up on our list of players whose contracts could be addressed this offseason.

Candidates for extension:

Among the Jets’ highest-paid players, there aren’t many that aren’t locked up through at least the 2017 season, so genuine extension candidates are few and far between. Richardson qualifies, but there are a number of reasons why the team may want to put off a long-term deal for another year.

For one, as a former first-round pick, Richardson has a fifth-year option on his contract, meaning the Jets can extend his rookie deal by a year, securing him through 2017, without any real risk. That gives the club some breathing room to further assess Richardson’s off-field behavior — after his court hearing this winter, the 25-year-old may be facing another suspension from the NFL, so the Jets will have to be fairly confident that Richardson can stay out of trouble off the field before investing big money in him.

Candidates for restructure:

  • Eric Decker, WR
  • Nick Mangold, C
  • Brandon Marshall, WR
  • Darrelle Revis, CB
  • Buster Skrine, CB

The Jets have cleverly structured many of their bigger contracts, committing more heavily to base salaries rather than signing bonuses. That gives the team the flexibility to rework certain deals without taking on much future dead money. Marshall, for example, currently has no dead money on his contract. If New York wants to create some cap space for 2016, the club could do so by converting a chunk of Marshall’s salary for next year into a signing bonus. Then, if things go wrong in ’16, the Jets could still cut him without sacrificing a ton of 2017 cap room.

While Mangold’s contract is structured similarly to Marshall’s, Revis’s is a little different if only because there’s still so much guaranteed money left on it. With a $17MM cap hit in 2016 though, followed by charges of $15.333MM (2017), $10.894MM (2018), and $10.894MM (2019), it would certainly make sense for the club to move some salary around in the cornerback’s deal.

If New York needs to create additional cap room, Decker’s and Skrine’s contracts, which feature modest prorated signing bonus charges, are among the many options on the team’s books.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Effective tackles aren’t easy to come by, particularly ones that can play on the left side, so while the Jets may consider moving on from Ferguson and/or Giacomini – or asking them to take pay cuts – those linemen definitely aren’t locks to be released.

Still, Ferguson is nearing his mid-30s, and his play hasn’t been as strong as it was during his Pro Bowl years (2009 through 2011). He’s also projected to have the club’s second-highest cap number in 2016. As for Giacomini, he was signed by the team’s old regime, and has no guaranteed money left on his deal, so if the Jets think they can do better at right tackle, there’s nothing to keep them from moving on — doing so would create nearly $4MM in cap savings.

The old regime also locked up Kerley to his current extension, and he is one of two pass catchers who has seen his role reduced significantly this season under Todd Bowles. Kerley has been targeted just 26 times this year after averaging 81 per season from 2012 to 2014, while Cumberland has 14 targets after averaging 47 per season during the same period. The duo isn’t particularly expensive, so one or both could stick around, but cutting them would create $3MM+ in cap room.

Meanwhile, Cromartie’s spot on the roster looks less secure than Revis’s or Skrine’s, primarly because of how his contract is structured. Cromartie’s deal didn’t feature a signing bonus, and all the guaranteed money is being paid in 2015, so the Jets could cut him without taking on any dead money for 2016 and beyond, creating $8MM in cap savings in the process. Cromartie hasn’t had a particularly productive season in his return to New York, so the team will have to be pretty certain he’s capable of bouncing back to keep him on his current contract.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

Important 2016 NFL Offseason Dates

December 24th, 2015 at 8:15pm CST by Luke Adams

December 25th will likely be a little slower than the average Friday during the NFL season, but with a full slate of games on tap this weekend, players and teams can’t afford to take much of a break. Even after Christmas and New Year’s, as the 2015 season comes to an end for 20 of the NFL’s 32 teams, the league’s offseason calendar features many notable dates and deadlines almost immediately. So clubs’ to-do lists will stay full even when there are no games left on their schedules.

As such, it’s worth looking ahead to the NFL’s offseason calendar for an idea of which dates will be more important during the next several weeks and months. With teams preparing to make changes to front offices, coaching staffs, and rosters, there are plenty of days to circle on the calendar.

Here’s a breakdown of some of the NFL’s key offseason dates and deadlines:

January

  • January 4
    • Teams may begin exercising fifth-year options on 2013 first-round picks and signing 2013 draftees to contract extensions. Eliminated teams may also begin signing players to reserve/futures contracts for the 2016 season.
  • January 10
    • Assistant coaches for playoff teams with byes can interview for head coaching positions through the conclusion of the Wild Card games.
  • January 12-13
    • A special NFL owners meeting will be held in Houston, Texas to discuss – and possibly vote on – Los Angeles relocation.
  • January 17
    • Assistant coaches for Wild Card teams that won their first round games can interview for head coaching positions through the conclusion of the divisional playoff games.
  • January 18
    • Deadline for college underclassmen to declare for the 2016 NFL draft.
  • January 30
    • Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama.
  • January 31
    • Assistant coaches for teams in the Super Bowl – who have previously interviewed for a head coaching job – can interview a second time with the club no later than the Sunday before the Super Bowl.

February

  • February 8
    • 2016 waiver system begins.
  • February 16

    • First day for teams to designate a franchise or transition player.
  • February 23-29
    • The NFL scouting combine will be held in Indianapolis.

March

  • March 1
    • As of 3pm CT, teams can no longer designate a franchise or transition player.
  • March 7
    • First day for teams to contact agents of players who will become unrestricted free agents on March 9. Free agent contracts can’t be signed yet, but informal agreements can be reached.
  • March 9
    • The 2016 league year begins, and free agency opens. By 3pm CT, teams must make decisions on player options, submit qualifying offers to restricted free agents, submit minimum tenders to exclusive rights free agents, and be under the 2015 salary cap. Trades can be made and free agents can be signed after 3pm CT.
  • March 20-23
    • The NFL owners meetings will be held in Boca Raton, Florida.

April

  • April 22
    • Deadline for restricted free agents to sign offer sheets.
  • April 27
    • Deadline for previous club to exercise right of first refusal (ie. match offer sheets) on restricted free agents.
  • April 28-30
    • The NFL draft will be held in Chicago.

May

  • May 3
    • Teams exercising fifth-year options on 2013 first-round picks must do so prior to May 3.

NFL Pro Bowlers In Contract Years

December 23rd, 2015 at 10:10am CST by Luke Adams

The NFL announced its Pro Bowlers for the 2015 season on Tuesday night, and while those rosters will certainly undergo some changes in the coming weeks – as players with injuries or on Super Bowl teams bow out and are replaced by alternates – it’s worth noting that several players in this initial crop are in contract years, and will be eligible for free agency this winter.

Currently, there are eight players in contract years among the Pro Bowlers, and not all of them are players you might expect. When we ranked the top free agents of 2016 earlier this month, we placed Bears wideout Alshon Jeffery second overall, but Jeffery didn’t get a Pro Bowl nod, partly due to the injuries that have slowed him down this season, and partly due to the star-studded group of receivers he was up against.

Similarly, our list of this offseason’s top 10 potential free agents included a pair of left tackles, Russell Okung of the Seahawks and Cordy Glenn of the Bills. However, given the strong group of left tackles that are locked up to long-term deals – including Tyron Smith (Cowboys), Jason Peters (Eagles), Joe Thomas (Browns), and others – neither Okung nor Glenn could crack the initial Pro Bowl roster.

Here are the eight potential free agents who earned Pro Bowl berths:

Berry, Miller, Norman, and Wilkerson earned spots on our top-10 list, and each of those four standout players should be in line for either the franchise tag or a lucrative long-term contract. However, the extension cases for the other four players on this list aren’t quite to cut-and-dried.

Woodson, of course, has an expiring contract, but isn’t expected to sign another one, having announced earlier this week that he’ll retire after the season. That takes him out of the extension equation entirely.

Martin is having an excellent bounce-back season in Tampa Bay, and is the most logical candidate to receive the biggest free agent deal for a running back this offseason. As we saw last winter though, not many running backs sign massive free agent contracts, and 2015’s biggest deal – DeMarco Murray‘s – won’t exactly encourage teams to invest heavily at the position. So there’s a ceiling on how much Martin will earn this winter, despite his Pro Bowl berth.

Nelson and Tolbert are interesting cases. Nelson’s counting stats (an NFL-best eight interceptions) and Pro Football Focus grades (10th among safeties) suggest he’s had a very strong year, but he’ll also be entering his age-33 season, so it’s fair to question whether he’s deserving of a contract in the range of the ones that Berry and perhaps Eric Weddle will sign.

As for Tolbert, his Pro Bowl nod comes at one of the league’s least-valued positions, and he’s also now on the wrong side of 30, which is generally bad news for running backs. I expect he’ll draw interest from plenty of teams if the Panthers don’t lock him up, but as a 30-year-old fullback, his earning potential is limited.

One more player worth mentioning is Browns center Alex Mack. Technically, Mack still has three years remaining on his contract, but he’ll have the opportunity to opt out this winter, and coming off a Pro Bowl season, there’s a good chance he’ll take advantage of that option.

Ultimately, these eight players – plus Mack – aren’t likely to get a huge boost to their annual salaries on their next contracts simply because they made the Pro Bowl. In fact, Tuesday’s Pro Bowl announcement may very well have a more tangible impact on players with Pro Bowl bonuses in their current contracts.

Still, you can bet that the representatives for these potential free agents will be sure to point to this year’s Pro Bowl roster to help make their case that their clients are among the best players in the NFL at their respective positions.

Community Tailgate: Should Saints Sit Brees?

December 22nd, 2015 at 7:09pm CST by Dallas Robinson

As the NFL regular season nears its home stretch, there are plenty of topics and storylines to discuss, and PFR’s Community Tailgate is designed to address those stories. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. We’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

We learned earlier tonight that Saints quarterback Drew Brees has a torn plantar fascia in his right foot, the same injury that has kept Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning out since Week 10. Despite the tear, reports indicate that Brees is considered day-to-day, and that he hopes to play in the club’s final two games.

But even if Brees wants to participate in Weeks 16 and 17, should New Orleans let him? The Saints are mathematically eliminated from earning a postseason berth, so their next two contests — against the Jaguars and Falcons — have no significance (at least for the Saints themselves). Those games do have implications for Jacksonville and Atlanta, and while teams competing with those two franchises for playoff spots might not be happy if the Saints play without their star quarterback, New Orleans has to value the health of Brees over those concerns.

And while backup Matt Flynn might be the favorite to make starts if Brees does sit, the Saints might also consider playing 2015 third-round pick Garrett Grayson during the last two games of the season. Grayson has only been active for one game and hasn’t seen any live action, but with little on the line, New Orleans could take this opportunity to give the Colorado State alum a chance.

On the other hand, head coach Sean Payton and general manager Mickey Loomis (not to mention Brees himself) probably want to finish as strong as possible after struggling though a miserable campaign. Brees, as competitive as they come, obviously isn’t eager to sit on the bench if he isn’t forced to. And Saints fans, especially those who have already paid for tickets for the final two games, surely want to see their franchise QB in action.

What do you think? Should the Saints rest Brees for the final two games of the year (even if he’s deemed able to play)? Or should they let him play out the string? Weigh in below in the comments section with your thoughts!

PFR Originals: 12/13/15 – 12/20/15

December 20th, 2015 at 4:49pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • In our latest Community Tailgate post, Luke Adams asked readers to weigh in on several tight division races. In the NFC, the North and East are still up for grabs, while in the AFC, the North, South, and West could all conceivably see a shake-up before now and the end of the regular season.
  • Luke also outlined how you can follow specific players on PFR.

Community Tailgate: NFL Division Winners

December 18th, 2015 at 12:46pm CST by Luke Adams

As the NFL regular season nears its home stretch, there are plenty of topics and storylines to discuss, and PFR’s Community Tailgate is designed to address those stories. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. We’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

Two NFL division winners for the 2015 season have already been decided, and another race is all but over — the Patriots have clinched the AFC East, the Panthers have secured the NFC South, and the Cardinals would have to utterly collapse down the stretch to lose their stranglehold on the NFC West.

While there may not be much drama within those three divisions though, there should be plenty to watch elsewhere in the league. Currently, two divisions feature a tie for first place and another has its top two teams separate by a single game. Even in the AFC North and AFC West, where the leaders have a two-game cushion, the first-place teams have backup quarterbacks starting for them, while the second-place teams are on on hot streaks.

Let’s break down each of the five divisions that remain up for grabs…

NFC East:

Washington (6-7) may be in the best position here — if Jay Gruden‘s club can win at home this weekend against the Bills, two division games await in Weeks 16 and 17, with Washington likely needing wins against the Eagles and Cowboys.

Those Eagles (6-7) also have two division games on tap, with Washington on the schedule in Week 16 and the Giants in Week 17. Philadelphia will also be in tough against a talented Cardinals squad this weekend.

The Giants (6-7), meanwhile, have the most challenging remaining schedule, with games against the Panthers and Vikings up next, in advance of a Week 17 showdown against the Eagles.

AFC South:

Like the NFC East, the AFC South features four teams below .500, with only the last-place Titans out of the picture. The Colts (6-7) and Texans (6-7) are currently tied for the lead, and whichever team wins their matchup this weekend will take over first place for the time being.

The Jaguars (5-8) shouldn’t be overlooked either, given the way their offense has been firing on all cylinders lately. They have the Falcons, Saints, and Texans left on their schedule, and all three contests are winnable, but Blake Bortles and company won’t have much margin for error. Particularly since the Colts and Texans each still have a game to play against the 3-10 Titans.

NFC North:

The Packers (9-4) have a one-game lead over the Vikings (8-5), but they could be in tough the next two weeks, with games in Oakland and Arizona. If Minnesota hangs around, a Week 17 matchup between these two NFC North teams could decide the division.

AFC North / AFC West:

In each of these divisions, the first-place team should hang on, but their two-game leads don’t quite look safe yet. The Bengals (10-3) will likely be relying on A.J. McCarron for the rest of the regular season, which means contests against the 49ers and Ravens shouldn’t be considered automatic victories — to say nothing of a Week 16 game in Denver.

Those Broncos (10-3) are in a similar boat, with Brock Osweiler struggling to get the offense into the end zone and Peyton Manning still sidelined. Games against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati during the next two weeks won’t be easy for Denver.

If either of those first-place teams falters, it could open the door for the surging Steelers (8-5) or the red-hot Chiefs (8-5) to grab a division title.

What do you think? How do you the see the last three weeks of the regular season playing out in these five divisions? Who are your picks for the division winners? Weigh in below in the comments section with your thoughts!

PFR Originals: 12/6/15 – 12/13/15

December 13th, 2015 at 4:49pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • Luke Adams posted our master list of 2016 Free Agents. Use that post to keep track of every play set to be available on the market next spring (both restricted and unrestricted free agents).
  • Using that list, I went over the roster of available players to compose our 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings, on which Von Miller, Alshon Jeffery, and Josh Norman all figure prominently.
  • Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
  • In our Community Tailgate series, we post topics for discussion and encourage readers to post their thoughts in the comments section. The issues touched on this week:
    • Will the Panthers go 16-0? (link)
    • How do you feel about our Free Agent Power Rankings? (link)

Community Tailgate: Top Free Agents Of 2016

December 12th, 2015 at 8:56am CST by Luke Adams

As the NFL regular season nears its home stretch, there are plenty of topics and storylines to discuss, and PFR’s Community Tailgate is designed to address those stories. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. We’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

Earlier this week, two AFC clubs with plenty of future cap room took advantage of that long-term flexibility by locking up their leading receivers. The Browns signed tight end Gary Barnidge to a three-year extension, while the Raiders locked up wideout Michael Crabtree for four years. The moves took a pair of intriguing free-agents-to-be off the market for 2016, and in the coming weeks, we’ll likely see several more potential free agents taken off the board, having signed extensions with their current teams.

That doesn’t mean that there won’t still be plenty of intriguing free agents available this winter, however. In our first installment of our 2016 free agent power rankings last night, we had a hard time narrowing down the options to just 10. These were the 10 players we chose, ranked by how much guaranteed money we think they could land on long-term deals this offseason:

  1. Von Miller, OLB (Broncos)
  2. Alshon Jeffery, WR (Bears)
  3. Josh Norman, CB (Panthers)
  4. Muhammad Wilkerson, DL (Jets)
  5. Russell Okung, T (Seahawks)
  6. Kelechi Osemele, G (Ravens)
  7. Cordy Glenn, T (Bills)
  8. Eric Berry, S (Chiefs)
  9. Brock Osweiler, QB (Broncos)
  10. Kirk Cousins, QB (Washington)

We noted at the bottom of the list that players like Kelvin Beachum (T, Steelers), Mike Daniels (DL, Packers), Malik Jackson (DL, Broncos), Olivier Vernon (DE, Dolphins) Eric Weddle (S, Chargers), and Derek Wolfe (DL, Broncos) just missed out. However, those weren’t the only other players we considered.

There are a pair of talented defensive ends set to reach free agency, and based on talent alone, you could make the case that Greg Hardy and Jason Pierre-Paul should be on the list. Still, Hardy has become toxic in Dallas, as more details about his domestic violence case have surfaced, and it’s hard to imagine any team signing him to a big, long-term contract. As for JPP, any potential suitor would have to seriously consider how his injured hand will affect him going forward. He has been solid since returning to the Giants, but he has yet to record a sack in four games this year.

There are at least a couple talented running backs set to hit the market, in Lamar Miller and Doug Martin. But running backs typically don’t make out too well in free agency, so it’s hard to imagine either player landing a DeMarco Murray-type contract — especially after the league has seen how that Murray deal has worked out this year for the Eagles.

What do you think? Does our list look about right to you, or are there changes you’d make? Are there other players on our list of 2016 free agents that you think deserve more consideration for the top 10 or 15 FAs available this winter? Weigh in below with your thoughts!

2016 NFL Free Agent Power Rankings

December 11th, 2015 at 8:37pm CST by Dallas Robinson

There are still four weeks left in the regular season, but let’s turn our attention to the offseason for a moment, and take a look at the first edition of our 2016 NFL Free Agent Power Rankings. This list — compiled using our list of 2016 free agents — is comprised only of upcoming unrestricted free agents, and is sorted by projected guaranteed money.

1. Von Miller, LB: The 26-year-old Miller has the highest draft pedigree of any player on this list, having been selected second overall back in 2011. He’s certainly lived up to that draft billing, posting 58 sacks in 68 starts during his five years in the league. The advanced metrics like Miller as well, as he grades as the fourth-best edge defender in the NFL per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), which also rates him as the best pure pass-rusher at his position. PFR’s Luke Adams examined Miller’s extension case last November, projecting a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $75MM, but given that Miller has continued his high level of production in the year-plus since, I think it’s fair to argue that he’ll garner even more. His target will be Ndamukong Suh‘s ~$19MM average salary, and while he might not get there, $18MM annually isn’t out of the question.

2. Alshon Jeffery, WR: Injuries have hampered Jeffery thus in 2015, as he’s been limited to playing in only seven of 12 games. But when he has been active, he’s been as consistent as ever, averaging nearly 100 yards per game through the air while acting as the only reliable option in the Bears’ passing attack. Jeffery is as good a candidate as any to receive a franchise tag next spring, as he’s not only the real option for such a tender on the Chicago roster, but he’s easily the best receiver of the 2016 free agent class. Such a tender will obviously hinder his market value (at a one-year cost of about $14.5MM, per Joel Corry’s projections), but otherwise he’d be in line for a Julio Jones-esque deal: five years at more than $14MM per season.

3. Josh Norman, CB: Like Jeffery, Norman will almost certainly be franchise-tagged, essentially locking him onto the Panthers’ roster while the two sides attempt to knock out an extension. It’s been a true breakout season for Norman, who turns 28 years old on Tuesday — through Week 13, he grades as the best corner in the league (per PFF), just a touch better than Tyrann Mathieu. I looked at Norman’s case for an extension last month, arguing that Norman has certainly earned the going rate for top cornerbacks: five years, $70MM or so. That $14MM AAV would put him right in line with the league’s other top defensive backs, such as Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, and Patrick Peterson.

4. Muhammad Wilkerson, DE: Trade rumors surrounded Wilkerson during the draft following the Jets’ selection of Leonard Williams, who was added to an already loaded New York defensive line that also fields Sheldon Richardson and Damon Harrison. Wilkerson ultimately stuck with Gang Green, but cut off extension talks before camp, determined to play out his current contract. Not only has Wilkerson continued to exhibit his high level of play, but he’s remarkably active, having played the fifth-most snaps of any defensive lineman in the league. He’s another candidate for the franchise tag, as he’ll be likely be looking for a contract that makes him the second highest-paid 3-4 defensive end (after J.J. Watt). PFR’s Rob DiRe profiled Wilkerson — and his case for a new deal — in July.

5. Russell Okung, T: The 28-year-old Okung hasn’t always been the most consistent or the most durable player, as he missed an average of four games during the first five years of his career. But he’s got a first-round pedigree, and he’s been a part of one of the more successful clubs in the NFL during the past few seasons (including perhaps the preeminent running game). As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap noted earlier this week, Okung — playing on one of the last surviving contracts signed under the old CBA — has already set a floor for talks with his six-year, $48.5MM rookie deal. He probably won’t match the $13MM annual salary reached by Trent Williams earlier this year, but Okung could aim for the second tier of tackle contracts ($10-11MM per year). I looked at Okung as an extension candidate earlier this year.

6. Kelechi Osemele, G: The Ravens likely won’t re-sign Osemele, having already handed fellow guard Marshal Yanda a four-year, $32MM deal earlier this year. I actually thought Yanda, who might be the single best interior lineman in the NFL, took less than he was worth, and I expect Osemele to not only aim higher, but seek to top the five-year, $40MM ($15.75MM guaranteed) contract inked by Mike Iupati last offseason, a topic I broached in my analysis of Osemele and Yanda’s extension arguments. He’d be worth the money, as he ranks as the fifth-best guard in the league per PFF (Yanda, ever the stalwart, ranks first).

7. Cordy Glenn, T: Glenn has perhaps the least name value of any on this list, as the former second-round pick has spent the entirety of his career in the relative anonymous confines of Buffalo. He’s been incredibly durable (just three missed starts in his career, all during his rookie season), and he’s performing quite well in his platform year, grading as the sixth-best tackle in the league per PFF. Glenn is solid option, not a star, but despite the decreasing disparity in importance between left and right tackles, those who protect the blind side still earn the bigger contracts.

8. Eric Berry, S: Perhaps the best story in the NFL this season, Berry is not only cancer-free about a year after being diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, but he’s playing the best football of his career, ranking as the league’s best overall safety per PFF. I expect he’ll return to the Chiefs, the club that drafted him with the fifth pick in 2010 (and the only team he’s ever played for). But there could be a hefty contract available on the free agent market, as safety salaries have steadily risen in recent years. Like Okung, he already scored a large rookie deal (more than $8MM annually), so he’ll probably be looking for more this time around. He’ll probably slide in just under Earl Thomas and Devin McCourty at $9MM per year or so.

9. Brock Osweiler, QB: The first wild card on the list, Osweiler has only three career starts to his name, but he is set up to earn a significant contract in free agency. His numbers thus far aren’t world-beating — he’s averaging just 208 yards passing per game while completing about 61% of his passes — but the dearth of quarterback talent in the NFL at the moment cannot be overstated. Any signal-caller who displays even a modicum of competence is potentially in line for a nice deal (let’s not forget Nick Foles garnered $12MM in guarantees this offseason). Also in Osweiler’s favor: Denver will likely use its franchise tag on Miller, meaning Osweiler could hit the open market unfettered.

10. Kirk Cousins, QB: The fact that the NFL has seen more of Cousins than Osweiler is, in my mind, a strike against the Washington quarterback — in other words, the league has seen the poor game tape of Cousins, where as Osweiler is still mostly projection. Still, there’s no denying that Cousins has played better football this year, and while he probably isn’t a candidate for the franchise tag, I’d be surprised if Washington doesn’t seek to work out a long-term deal.

Also considered: Kelvin Beachum, Mike Daniels, Malik Jackson, Olivier Vernon, Eric Weddle, Derek Wolfe.

Community Tailgate: Will Panthers Go 16-0?

December 9th, 2015 at 10:35am CST by Luke Adams

As the NFL regular season nears its home stretch, there are plenty of topics and storylines to discuss, and PFR’s Community Tailgate is designed to address those stories. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. We’ll highlight one of the top stories going on in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

Of course, while the debate may get spirited, we ask that it all stays respectful. If you need a reminder of our rules, please check out our commenting policy. Basically, we ask that you refrain from inappropriate language, personal insults, and attacks. Speaking of commenting: we’ve made it much easier to leave a comment here at Pro Football Rumors. You are no longer required to be a registered user – simply put in your name, email address, and comment and submit.

Several weeks ago, when we surveyed PFR readers on whether the Patriots and Panthers could go undefeated, the general consensus was that New England had a better shot than Carolina at finishing 16-0. Since then, however, the Pats’ injury issues have caught up to them, and the club has lost consecutive games against the Broncos and Eagles.

The Panthers, on the other hand, continue to roll, surviving a Week 13 scare in New Orleans to sneak past the Saints and run their record to 12-0. With four weeks left in the season, the Panthers still have to play the Falcons, the Giants, the Falcons again, and the Bucs — Carolina should be favored in all four games, but each of those teams are fighting for a playoff spot in the NFC, so wins won’t come easy.

At the same time, the Panthers figure to face an interesting decision within the next couple weeks — do they go all-out in an effort to stay undefeated, or do they dial it back and rest some key players if and when they clinch a first-round bye and the NFC’s No. 1 seed?

Today’s discussion question is a two-parter, then. Will the Panthers run the table to finish with a 16-0 record? And should that even be a priority for the team? We’ve seen clubs in the past take the pedal off the gas with a week or two left in the season and have that decision backfire in the playoffs, when the long layoff for key players results in some rust in the divisional round. On the other hand, head coach Ron Rivera and his staff would likely get ripped by media and fans alike if Cam Newton were to go down with an injury in Week 16 or 17, after Carolina had already clinched home-field advantage.

So what do you think? Should the Panthers try to go 16-0 even if they’ve clinched a No. 1 seed with a couple weeks remaining? If they do go for it, will the Panthers be able to get by the Falcons, Giants, and Bucs to go undefeated? And either way, what sort of postseason outcome do you see for Carolina? Weigh in below with your thoughts!

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